Search results for: stochastic inventory system

Authors: Jerome Joshi

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The paper presents the modelling of financial markets using the Stochastic Pi Calculus model. The Stochastic Pi Calculus model is mainly used for biological applications; however, the feature of this model promotes its use in financial markets, more prominently in high frequency trading. The trading system can be broadly classified into exchange, market makers or intermediary traders and fundamental traders. The exchange is where the action of the trade is executed, and the two types of traders act as market participants in the exchange. High frequency trading, with its complex networks and numerous market participants (intermediary and fundamental traders) poses a difficulty while modelling. It involves the participants to seek the advantage of complex trading algorithms and high execution speeds to carry out large volumes of trades. To earn profits from each trade, the trader must be at the top of the order book quite frequently by executing or processing multiple trades simultaneously. This would require highly automated systems as well as the right sentiment to outperform other traders. However, always being at the top of the book is also not best for the trader, since it was the reason for the outbreak of the ‘Hot – Potato Effect,’ which in turn demands for a better and more efficient model. The characteristics of the model should be such that it should be flexible and have diverse applications. Therefore, a model which has its application in a similar field characterized by such difficulty should be chosen. It should also be flexible in its simulation so that it can be further extended and adapted for future research as well as be equipped with certain tools so that it can be perfectly used in the field of finance. In this case, the Stochastic Pi Calculus model seems to be an ideal fit for financial applications, owing to its expertise in the field of biology. It is an extension of the original Pi Calculus model and acts as a solution and an alternative to the previously flawed algorithm, provided the application of this model is further extended. This model would focus on solving the problem which led to the ‘Flash Crash’ which is the ‘Hot –Potato Effect.’ The model consists of small sub-systems, which can be integrated to form a large system. It is designed in way such that the behavior of ‘noise traders’ is considered as a random process or noise in the system. While modelling, to get a better understanding of the problem, a broader picture is taken into consideration with the trader, the system, and the market participants. The paper goes on to explain trading in exchanges, types of traders, high frequency trading, ‘Flash Crash,’ ‘Hot-Potato Effect,’ evaluation of orders and time delay in further detail. For the future, there is a need to focus on the calibration of the module so that they would interact perfectly with other modules. This model, with its application extended, would provide a basis for researchers for further research in the field of finance and computing.

Keywords: concurrent computing, high frequency trading, financial markets, stochastic pi calculus

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Authors: Sai Hung Cheung, Zhe Shao

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Recent earthquake-induced tsunamis in Padang, 2004 and Tohoku, 2011 brought huge losses of lives and properties. Maintaining vertical evacuation systems is the most crucial strategy to effectively reduce casualty during the tsunami event. Thus, it is of our great interest to quantify the risk to structural dynamic systems due to earthquake-induced tsunamis. Despite continuous advancement in computational simulation of the tsunami and wave-structure interaction modeling, it still remains computationally challenging to evaluate the reliability (or its complement failure probability) of a structural dynamic system when uncertainties related to the system and its modeling are taken into account. The failure of the structure in a tsunami-wave-structural system is defined as any response quantities of the system exceeding specified thresholds during the time when the structure is subjected to dynamic wave impact due to earthquake-induced tsunamis. In this paper, an approach based on a novel integration of the Subset Simulation algorithm and a recently proposed moving least squares response surface approach for stochastic sampling is proposed. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is discussed by comparing its results with those obtained from the Subset Simulation algorithm without using the response surface approach.

Keywords: response surface model, subset simulation, structural reliability, Tsunami risk

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Authors: Loïc Warscotte, Jehan Boreux

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The scientific literature of changepoint detection is vast. Today, a lot of methods are available to detect abrupt changes or slight drift in a signal, based on CUSUM or EWMA charts, for example. However, these methods rely on strong assumptions, such as the stationarity of the stochastic underlying process, or even the independence and Gaussian distributed noise at each time. Recently, the breakthrough research on locally stationary processes widens the class of studied stochastic processes with almost no assumptions on the signals and the nature of the changepoint. Despite the accurate description of the mathematical aspects, this methodology quickly suffers from impractical time and space complexity concerning the signals with high-rate data collection, if the characteristics of the process are completely unknown. In this paper, we then addressed the problem of making this theory usable to our purpose, which is monitoring a high-speed weigh-in-motion system (HS-WIM) towards direct enforcement without supervision. To this end, we first compute bounded approximations of the initial detection theory. Secondly, these approximating bounds are empirically validated by generating many independent long-run stochastic processes. The abrupt changes and the drift are both tested. Finally, this relaxed methodology is tested on real signals coming from a HS-WIM device in Belgium, collected over several months.

Keywords: changepoint, weigh-in-motion, process, non-parametric

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Authors: Karim Hamidi Machekposhti, Hossein Sedghi

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This study was designed to find the best stochastic model (using of time series analysis) for annual extreme streamflow (peak and maximum streamflow) of Karkheh River at Iran. The Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model used to simulate these series and forecast those in future. For the analysis, annual extreme streamflow data of Jelogir Majin station (above of Karkheh dam reservoir) for the years 1958–2005 were used. A visual inspection of the time plot gives a little increasing trend; therefore, series is not stationary. The stationarity observed in Auto-Correlation Function (ACF) and Partial Auto-Correlation Function (PACF) plots of annual extreme streamflow was removed using first order differencing (d=1) in order to the development of the ARIMA model. Interestingly, the ARIMA(4,1,1) model developed was found to be most suitable for simulating annual extreme streamflow for Karkheh River. The model was found to be appropriate to forecast ten years of annual extreme streamflow and assist decision makers to establish priorities for water demand. The Statistical Analysis System (SAS) and Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) codes were used to determinate of the best model for this series.

Keywords: stochastic models, ARIMA, extreme streamflow, Karkheh river

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Authors: Lin Fu-Gong

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Background: As WHO announced, people with intellectual disability (ID) were vulnerable to mental health problems. And there were few custom-made mental health scales for those people to monitor their mental health. Those people with mental problems often accompanied worse prognosis and usually became to be a heavier burden on the caregivers. Purpose: In this study, we intend to develop a psychopathy scale as a practical tool for monitoring the mental health for people with ID living in institute. Methods: In this study, we adopt the Psychopathology Inventory for Mentally Retarded Adults developed by professor Matson with certified reliability and validity in Western countries with Dr. Matson’s agreement in advance. We first translated the inventory into Chinese validated version considering the domestic culture background in the past year. And the validity and reliability evaluation of mental health status using this inventory among the people with intellectual living in the institute were done. Results: The inventory includes eight psychiatric disorder scales as schizophrenic, affective, psychosexual, adjustment, anxiety, somatoform, personality disorders and inappropriate mental adjustment. Around 83% of 40 invested people, who randomly selected from the institute, were found to have at least one disorder who were recommended with medical help by two evaluators. Among the residents examined, somatoform disorder and inappropriate mental adjustment were most popular with 60% and 78% people respectively. Conclusion: The result showed the prevalence psychiatric disorders were relatively high among people with ID in institute and the mental problems need to be further cared and followed for their mental health. The results showed that the psychopathology inventory was a useful tool for institute caregiver, manager and for long-term care policy to the government. In the coming stage, we plan to extend the use of the valid Chinese version inventory among more different type institutes for people with ID to establish their dynamic mental health status including medical need, relapse and rehabilitation to promote their mental health.

Keywords: intellectual disability, psychiatric disorder, psychopathology inventory, mental health, the institute

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Authors: Nadarajah I. Ramesh

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Much of the research on stochastic point process models for rainfall has focused on Poisson cluster models constructed from either the Neyman-Scott or Bartlett-Lewis processes. The doubly stochastic Poisson process provides a rich class of point process models, especially for fine-scale rainfall modelling. This paper provides an account of recent development on this topic and presents the results based on some of the fine-scale rainfall models constructed from this class of stochastic point processes. Amongst the literature on stochastic models for rainfall, greater emphasis has been placed on modelling rainfall data recorded at hourly or daily aggregation levels. Stochastic models for sub-hourly rainfall are equally important, as there is a need to reproduce rainfall time series at fine temporal resolutions in some hydrological applications. For example, the study of climate change impacts on hydrology and water management initiatives requires the availability of data at fine temporal resolutions. One approach to generating such rainfall data relies on the combination of an hourly stochastic rainfall simulator, together with a disaggregator making use of downscaling techniques. Recent work on this topic adopted a different approach by developing specialist stochastic point process models for fine-scale rainfall aimed at generating synthetic precipitation time series directly from the proposed stochastic model. One strand of this approach focused on developing a class of doubly stochastic Poisson process (DSPP) models for fine-scale rainfall to analyse data collected in the form of rainfall bucket tip time series. In this context, the arrival pattern of rain gauge bucket tip times N(t) is viewed as a DSPP whose rate of occurrence varies according to an unobserved finite state irreducible Markov process X(t). Since the likelihood function of this process can be obtained, by conditioning on the underlying Markov process X(t), the models were fitted with maximum likelihood methods. The proposed models were applied directly to the raw data collected by tipping-bucket rain gauges, thus avoiding the need to convert tip-times to rainfall depths prior to fitting the models. One advantage of this approach was that the use of maximum likelihood methods enables a more straightforward estimation of parameter uncertainty and comparison of sub-models of interest. Another strand of this approach employed the DSPP model for the arrivals of rain cells and attached a pulse or a cluster of pulses to each rain cell. Different mechanisms for the pattern of the pulse process were used to construct variants of this model. We present the results of these models when they were fitted to hourly and sub-hourly rainfall data. The results of our analysis suggest that the proposed class of stochastic models is capable of reproducing the fine-scale structure of the rainfall process, and hence provides a useful tool in hydrological modelling.

Keywords: fine-scale rainfall, maximum likelihood, point process, stochastic model

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Authors: Raja Kannusamy

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The research focuses on reducing food waste in the restaurant industry. A study has been conducted on the chain of retail restaurant outlets. It has been observed that the food wastages are due to the inefficient inventory management systems practiced in the restaurant outlets. The major food items which are wasted more in quantity are being selected across the retail chain outlets. A moving average forecasting method has been applied for the selected food items so that their future demand could be predicted accurately and food wastage could be avoided. It has been found that the moving average prediction method helps in predicting forecasts accurately. The demand values obtained from the moving average method have been compared to the actual demand values and are found to be similar with minimum variations. The inventory optimization technique helps in reducing food wastage in restaurant supply chain outlets.

Keywords: food wastage, restaurant supply chain, inventory optimisation, demand forecasting

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Authors: Nicholas Burica, Nina Selak

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The ADHCAT (Automated Distribution Hosting Capacity Assessment Tool) was designed to run Hosting Capacity Analysis on the ComEd system via a stochastic DER (Distributed Energy Resource) placement on multiple power flow simulations against a set of violation criteria. The violation criteria in the initial version of the tool captured a limited amount of issues that individual departments design against for DER interconnections. Enhancements were made to the tool to further align with individual department violation and operation criteria, as well as the addition of new modules for use for future load profile analysis. A reporting engine was created for future analytical use based on the simulations and observations in the tool.

Keywords: distributed energy resources, hosting capacity, interconnect, voltage optimization

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Authors: Katja Ignatieva, Patrick Wong

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We investigated the dynamics of high frequency energy prices, including crude oil and electricity prices. The returns of underlying quantities are modelled using various parametric models such as stochastic framework with jumps and stochastic volatility (SVCJ) as well as non-parametric alternatives, which are purely data driven and do not require specification of the drift or the diffusion coefficient function. Using different statistical criteria, we investigate the performance of considered parametric and nonparametric models in their ability to forecast price series and volatilities. Our models incorporate possible seasonalities in the underlying dynamics and utilise advanced estimation techniques for the dynamics of energy prices.

Keywords: stochastic volatility, affine jump-diffusion models, high frequency data, model specification, markov chain monte carlo

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Authors: Sie Long Kek, Wah June Leong, Kok Lay Teo

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Linear quadratic Gaussian model is a standard mathematical model for the stochastic optimal control problem. The combination of the linear quadratic estimation and the linear quadratic regulator allows the state estimation and the optimal control policy to be designed separately. This is known as the separation principle. In this paper, an efficient computational method is proposed to solve the linear quadratic Gaussian problem. In our approach, the Hamiltonian function is defined, and the necessary conditions are derived. In addition to this, the output error is defined and the least-square optimization problem is introduced. By determining the first-order necessary condition, the gradient of the sum squares of output error is established. On this point of view, the stochastic approximation approach is employed such that the optimal control policy is updated. Within a given tolerance, the iteration procedure would be stopped and the optimal solution of the linear-quadratic Gaussian problem is obtained. For illustration, an example of the linear-quadratic Gaussian problem is studied. The result shows the efficiency of the approach proposed. In conclusion, the applicability of the approach proposed for solving the linear quadratic Gaussian problem is highly demonstrated.

Keywords: iteration procedure, least squares solution, linear quadratic Gaussian, output error, stochastic approximation

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Authors: Uttam Neupane, Narendra Budha, Subash Kumar Bhattarai

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Material management is an essential part in construction project management. There are a number of material management problems in the Nepalese construction industry, which contribute to an inefficient material management system. Ineffective material management can cause waste of time and money thus increasing the problem of time and cost overrun. An assessment of material management system with gap and solution was carried out on 20 construction projects implemented by the Federal Level Project Implementation Unit (FPIU); Kaski district of Nepal. To improve the material management process, the respondents have provided possible solutions to overcome the gaps seen in the current material management process. The possible solutions are preparation of material schedule in line with the construction schedule for material requirement planning, verifications of material and locating of source, purchasing of the required material in advance before commencement of work, classifying the materials, and managing the inventory based on their usage value and eliminating and reduction in wastages during the overall material management process.

Keywords: material management, construction site, inventory, construction project

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Authors: Kun Huang

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This paper investigates whether the combination of local and stochastic volatility models can be calibrated exactly to any arbitrage-free implied volatility surface of European option. The risk neutral Brownian Bridge density is applied for calibration of the leverage function of our Hybrid model. Furthermore, the tails of marginal risk neutral density are generated by Generalized Extreme Value distribution in order to capture the properties of asset returns. The local volatility is generated from the arbitrage-free implied volatility surface using stochastic volatility inspired parameterization.

Keywords: arbitrage free implied volatility, calibration, extreme value distribution, hybrid model, local volatility, risk-neutral density, stochastic volatility

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Authors: Zubier Arfan, Paul Johnson

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The electronification of financial markets and the rise of algorithmic trading has sparked a lot of interest from the mathematical community, for the market making-problem in particular. The research presented in this short paper solves the classic stochastic control problem in order to derive the strategy for a market-maker. It also shows how to calibrate and simulate the strategy with real limit order book data for back-testing. The ambiguity of limit-order priority in back-testing is dealt with by considering optimistic and pessimistic priority scenarios. The model, although it does outperform a naive strategy, assumes constant volatility, therefore, is not best suited to the LOB data. The Heston model is introduced to describe the price and variance process of the asset. The Trader's constant absolute risk aversion utility function is optimised by numerically solving a 3-dimensional Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman partial differential equation to find the optimal limit order quotes. The results show that the stochastic volatility market-making model is more suitable for a risk-averse trader and is also less sensitive to calibration error than the constant volatility model.

Keywords: market-making, market-microsctrucure, stochastic volatility, quantitative trading

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Authors: Massimiliano Frezza, Sergio Bianchi, Augusto Pianese

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Introduced by Shannon in 1948 in the field of information theory as the average rate at which information is produced by a stochastic set of data, the concept of entropy has gained much attention as a measure of uncertainty and unpredictability associated with a dynamical system, eventually depicted by a stochastic process. In particular, the Shannon entropy measures the degree of order/disorder of a given signal and provides useful information about the underlying dynamical process. It has found widespread application in a variety of fields, such as, for example, cryptography, statistical physics and finance. In this regard, many contributions have employed different measures of entropy in an attempt to characterize the financial time series in terms of market efficiency, market crashes and/or financial crises. The Shannon entropy has also been considered as a measure of the risk of a portfolio or as a tool in asset pricing. This work investigates the theoretical link between the Shannon entropy and the multifractional Brownian motion (mBm), stochastic process which recently is the focus of a renewed interest in finance as a driving model of stochastic volatility. In particular, after exploring the current state of research in this area and highlighting some of the key results and open questions that remain, we show a well-defined relationship between the Shannon (log)entropy and the memory function H(t) of the mBm. In details, we allow both the length of time series and time scale to change over analysis to study how the relation modify itself. On the one hand, applications are developed after generating surrogates of mBm trajectories based on different memory functions; on the other hand, an empirical analysis of several international stock indexes, which confirms the previous results, concludes the work.

Keywords: Shannon entropy, multifractional Brownian motion, Hurst–Holder exponent, stock indexes

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Authors: Sunantha Teyarachakul

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We consider the worker-learning Newsvendor Model, under the case of lost-sales for unmet demand, with the research objective of proposing the cost-minimization order policy and lot size, scheduled to arrive at the beginning of the selling-period. In general, the New Vendor Model is used to find the optimal order quantity for the perishable items such as fashionable products or those with seasonal demand or short-life cycles. Technically, it is used when the product demand is stochastic and available for the single selling-season, and when there is only a one time opportunity for the vendor to purchase, with possibly of long ordering lead-times. Our work differs from the classical Newsvendor Model in that we incorporate the human factor (specifically worker learning) and its influence over the costs of processing units into the model. We describe this by using the well-known Wright’s Learning Curve. Most of the assumptions of the classical New Vendor Model are still maintained in our work, such as the constant per-unit cost of leftover and shortage, the zero initial inventory, as well as the continuous time. Our problem is challenging in the way that the best order quantity in the classical model, which is balancing the over-stocking and under-stocking costs, is no longer optimal. Specifically, when adding the cost-saving from worker learning to such expected total cost, the convexity of the cost function will likely not be maintained. This has called for a new way in determining the optimal order policy. In response to such challenges, we found a number of characteristics related to the expected cost function and its derivatives, which we then used in formulating the optimal ordering policy. Examples of such characteristics are; the optimal order quantity exists and is unique if the demand follows a Uniform Distribution; if the demand follows the Beta Distribution with some specific properties of its parameters, the second derivative of the expected cost function has at most two roots; and there exists the specific level of lot size that satisfies the first order condition. Our research results could be helpful for analysis of supply chain coordination and of the periodic review system for similar problems.

Keywords: inventory management, Newsvendor model, order policy, worker learning

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Authors: N. C. Sarkar, A. Bhaskar, Z. Zheng

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The driving behavior in area-based (i.e., non-lane based) traffic is induced by the presence of other individuals in the choice space from the driver’s visual perception area. The driving behavior of a subject vehicle is constrained by the potential leaders and leaders are frequently changed over time. This paper is to determine a stochastic model for a parameter of modified intelligent driver model (MIDM) in area-based traffic (as in developing countries). The parametric and non-parametric distributions are presented to fit the parameters of MIDM. The goodness of fit for each parameter is measured in two different ways such as graphically and statistically. The quantile-quantile (Q-Q) plot is used for a graphical representation of a theoretical distribution to model a parameter and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test is used for a statistical measure of fitness for a parameter with a theoretical distribution. The distributions are performed on a set of estimated parameters of MIDM. The parameters are estimated on the real vehicle trajectory data from India. The fitness of each parameter with a stochastic model is well represented. The results support the applicability of the proposed modeling for parameters of MIDM in area-based traffic flow simulation.

Keywords: area-based traffic, car-following model, micro-simulation, stochastic modeling

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Authors: Lichung Jen, Yi Chun Liu, Kuan-Wei Lee

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Fruitful data has been accumulated in database nowadays and is commonly used as support for decision-making. In the healthcare industry, hospital, for instance, ordering pharmacy inventory is one of the key decision. With large drug inventory, the current cost increases and its expiration dates might lead to future issue, such as drug disposal and recycle. In contrast, underestimating demand of the pharmacy inventory, particularly standing drugs, affects the medical treatment and possibly hospital reputation. Prescription behaviour of hospital physicians is one of the critical factor influencing this decision, particularly irregular prescription behaviour. If a drug’s usage amount in the month is irregular and less than the regular usage, it may cause the trend of subsequent stockpiling. On the contrary, if a drug has been prescribed often than expected, it may result in insufficient inventory. We proposed a hierarchical Bayesian mixture model with two components to identify physicians’ regular/irregular prescription patterns with probabilities. Heterogeneity of hospital is considered in our proposed hierarchical Bayes model. The result suggested that modeling the prescription patterns of physician is beneficial for estimating the order quantity of medication and pharmacy inventory management of the hospital. Managerial implication and future research are discussed.

Keywords: hierarchical Bayesian model, poission mixture model, medicines prescription behavior, irregular behavior

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Authors: Keerthi S. Shetty, Annappa Basava

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In recent years, modelling of biological systems represented by biochemical reactions has become increasingly important in Systems Biology. Biological systems represented by biochemical reactions are highly stochastic in nature. Probabilistic model is often used to describe such systems. One of the main challenges in Systems biology is to combine absolute experimental data into probabilistic model. This challenge arises because (1) some molecules may be present in relatively small quantities, (2) there is a switching between individual elements present in the system, and (3) the process is inherently stochastic on the level at which observations are made. In this paper, we describe a novel idea of combining absolute experimental data into probabilistic model using tool R2. Through a case study of the Transcription Process in Prokaryotes we explain how biological systems can be written as probabilistic program to combine experimental data into the model. The model developed is then analysed in terms of intrinsic noise and exact sampling of switching times between individual elements in the system. We have mainly concentrated on inferring number of genes in ON and OFF states from experimental data.

Keywords: systems biology, probabilistic model, inference, biology, model

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Authors: Abdulaziz Afandi

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Minimizing the inventory cost, optimizing the inventory quantities, and increasing system operational availability are the main motivations to enhance forecasting demand of spare parts in a major power utility company in Medina. This paper reports in an effort made to optimize the orders quantities of spare parts by improving the method of forecasting the demand. The study focuses on equipment that has frequent spare parts purchase orders with uncertain demand. The pattern of the demand considers a lumpy pattern which makes conventional forecasting methods less effective. A comparison was made by benchmarking various methods of forecasting based on experts’ criteria to select the most suitable method for the case study. Three actual data sets were used to make the forecast in this case study. Two neural networks (NN) approaches were utilized and compared, namely long short-term memory (LSTM) and multilayer perceptron (MLP). The results as expected, showed that the NN models gave better results than traditional forecasting method (judgmental method). In addition, the LSTM model had a higher predictive accuracy than the MLP model.

Keywords: neural network, LSTM, MLP, forecasting demand, inventory management

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Authors: Roopa Singh, Anurag Singh, Ajay

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Agriculture contributes a major share in the national economy of India. A major portion of Indian economy (about 70%) depends upon agriculture as it forms the main source of income. About 43% of India’s geographical area is used for agricultural activity which involves 65-75% of total population of India. The given work deals with the Fast moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) industries and their inventories which use agricultural produce as their raw material or input for their final product. Since the beginning of inventory practices, many developments took place which can be categorised into three phases, based on the review of various works. The first phase is related with development and utilization of Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) model and methods for optimizing costs and profits. Second phase deals with inventory optimization method, with the purpose of balancing capital investment constraints and service level goals. The third and recent phase has merged inventory control with electrical control theory. Maintenance of inventory is considered negative, as a large amount of capital is blocked especially in mechanical and electrical industries. But the case is different in food processing and agro-based industries and their inventories due to cyclic variation in the cost of raw materials of such industries which is the reason for selection of these industries in the mentioned work. The application of electrical control theory in inventory control makes the decision-making highly instantaneous for FMCG industries without loss in their proposed profits, which happened earlier during first and second phases, mainly due to late implementation of decision. The work also replaces various inventories and work-in-progress (WIP) related errors with their monetary values, so that the decision-making is fully target-oriented.

Keywords: control theory, inventory control, manufacturing sector, EOQ, feedback, FMCG sector

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Authors: Abeer Amayri, Akif A. Bulgak

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Due to today’s globalization as well as outsourcing practices of the companies, the Supply Chain (SC) performances have become more dependent on the efficient movement of material among places that are geographically dispersed, where there is more chance for disruptions. One such disruption is the quality and delivery uncertainties of outsourcing. These uncertainties could lead the products to be unsafe and, as is the case in a number of recent examples, companies may have to end up in recalling their products. As a result of these problems, there is a need to develop a methodology for selecting suppliers globally in view of risks associated with low quality and late delivery. Accordingly, we developed a two-stage stochastic model that captures the risks associated with uncertainty in quality and delivery as well as a solution procedure for the model. The stochastic model developed simultaneously optimizes supplier selection and purchase quantities under price discounts over a time horizon. In particular, our target is the study of global organizations with multiple sites and multiple overseas suppliers, where the pricing is offered in suppliers’ local currencies. Our proposed methodology is applied to a case study for a US automotive company having two assembly plants and four potential global suppliers to illustrate how the proposed model works in practice.

Keywords: global supply chains, quality, stochastic programming, supplier selection

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Authors: Gamze Safak, Umut Arslanoglu

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Cultural and tourism conservation and development zones and tourism centers are the boundaries declared for the purpose of protecting, using, and evaluating the sectoral development and planned development in areas where historical and cultural values are heavily involved and/or where tourism potential is high. The most rapidly changing regions in Turkey are tourism areas, especially the coastal areas. Planning these regions is not about only an economic gain but also a natural and physical environment and refers to a complex process. If the tourism sector is not well controlled, excessive use of natural resources and wrong location choices may cause damage to natural areas, historical values, and socio-cultural structure. Since the strategic decisions taken in the environmental order and zoning plans, which are the means of guiding the physical environment of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism, which have the authority to make plans in tourism centers, are transformed into plan decisions that find the spatial expression, comprehensive evaluation of all kinds of data, following the historical development and based on the correct and current data is required. In addition, the authority has a number of competences in tourism promotion as well as the authority to plan, leading to the necessity of taking part in the applications requiring complex analysis such as the management and integration of the country's economic, political, social and cultural resources. For this purpose, Tourism Inventory System (TES) project, which consists of a series of subsystems, has been developed in order to solve complex planning and method problems in the management of site-related information. The scope of the project is based on the integration of numerical and verbal data in the regions within the jurisdiction of the authority, and the monitoring of the historical development of urban planning studies, making the spatial data of the institution easily accessible, shared, questionable and traceable in international standards. A dynamic and continuous system design has been put into practice by utilizing the advantage of the use of Geographical Information Systems in the planning process to play a role in making the right decisions, revealing the tools of social, economic, cultural development, and preservation of natural and cultural values. This paper, which is prepared by the project team members in TES (Tourism Inventory System), will present a study regarding the applicability of GIS in cultural and natural heritage conservation.

Keywords: cultural conservation, GIS, geographic information system, tourism inventory system, urban planning

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Authors: Miljan B. Petrović, Dušan B. Petrović, Goran S. Nikolić

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This paper describes a method for AWGN (Additive White Gaussian Noise) variance estimation in noisy stochastic signals, referred to as Multiplicative-Noising Variance Estimation (MNVE). The aim was to develop an estimation algorithm with minimal number of assumptions on the original signal structure. The provided MATLAB simulation and results analysis of the method applied on speech signals showed more accuracy than standardized AR (autoregressive) modeling noise estimation technique. In addition, great performance was observed on very low signal-to-noise ratios, which in general represents the worst case scenario for signal denoising methods. High execution time appears to be the only disadvantage of MNVE. After close examination of all the observed features of the proposed algorithm, it was concluded it is worth of exploring and that with some further adjustments and improvements can be enviably powerful.

Keywords: noise, signal-to-noise ratio, stochastic signals, variance estimation

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Authors: Chayanika Rout, Debjani Chakraborty, Adrijit Goswami

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Our work presents an inventory model which illustrates imperfect production and imperfect inspection processes for deteriorating items. A cost-minimizing model is studied considering two types of inspection errors, namely, Type I error of falsely screening out a proportion of non-defects, thereby passing them on for rework and Type II error of falsely not screening out a proportion of defects, thus selling those to customers which incurs a penalty cost. The screened items are reworked; however, no returns are entertained due to deteriorating nature of the items. In more practical situations, certain parameters such as the demand rate and the deterioration rate of inventory cannot be accurately determined, and therefore, they are assumed to be triangular fuzzy numbers in our model. We calculate the optimal lot size that must be produced in order to minimize the total inventory cost for both the crisp and the fuzzy models. A numerical example is also considered to exemplify the procedure which is followed by the analysis of sensitivity of various parameters on the decision variable and the objective function.

Keywords: deteriorating items, EPQ, imperfect quality, rework, type I and type II inspection errors

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Authors: Nassim Bessaad, Qilian Bao, Zhao Jiangkang

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The fiber optics gyroscope in the strap-down inertial navigation system (FOG-SINS) suffers from precision degradation due to the influence of random errors. In this work, an enhanced Allan variance (AV) stochastic modeling method combined with discrete wavelet transform (DWT) for signal denoising is implemented to estimate the random process in the FOG signal. Furthermore, we devise a measurement-based iterative adaptive Sage-Husa nonlinear filter with augmented states to integrate a star tracker sensor with SINS. The proposed filter adapts the measurement noise covariance matrix based on the available data. Moreover, the enhanced stochastic modeling scheme is invested in tuning the process noise covariance matrix and the augmented state Gauss-Markov process parameters. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposed filter is investigated by employing the collected data in laboratory conditions. The result shows the filter's improved accuracy in comparison with the conventional Kalman filter (CKF).

Keywords: inertial navigation, adaptive filtering, star tracker, FOG

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Authors: Amit Gupta, Deepak Juneja, Sorabh Gupta

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This paper presents a model based on distance based approach (DBA) method employed for evaluation, selection, and ranking of replenishment policies for a single location inventory, which hitherto not developed in the literature. This work recognizes the significance of the selection problem, identifies the selection criteria, the relative importance of selection criteria for this research problem. The developed model is capable of comparing any number of alternate inventory policies for various selection criteria where cardinal values are assigned as a rating to alternate inventory polices for selection criteria and weights of selection criteria. The illustrated example demonstrates the model and presents the result in terms of ranking of replenishment policies.

Keywords: DBA, ranking, replenishment policies, selection criteria

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Authors: Mohd Noah A. Rahman, Afzaal H. Seyal, Sharul T. Tajuddin, Hartiny Md Azmi

Abstract:

Taking into consideration the real time situation specifically the higher academic institutions, small, medium to large companies, public to private sectors and the remaining sectors, do experience the inventory or asset shrinkages due to theft, loss or even inventory tracking errors. This happening is due to a zero or poor security systems and measures being taken and implemented in their organizations. Henceforth, implementing the Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) technology into any manual or existing web-based system or web application can simply deter and will eventually solve certain major issues to serve better data retrieval and data access. Having said, this manual or existing system can be enhanced into a mobile-based system or application. In addition to that, the availability of internet connections can aid better services of the system. Such involvement of various technologies resulting various privileges to individuals or organizations in terms of accessibility, availability, mobility, efficiency, effectiveness, real-time information and also security. This paper will look deeper into the integration of mobile devices with RFID technologies with the purpose of asset tracking and control. Next, it is to be followed by the development and utilization of MongoDB as the main database to store data and its association with RFID technology. Finally, the development of a web based system which can be viewed in a mobile based formation with the aid of Hypertext Preprocessor (PHP), MongoDB, Hyper-Text Markup Language 5 (HTML5), Android, JavaScript and AJAX programming language.

Keywords: RFID, asset tracking system, MongoDB, NoSQL

Procedia PDF Downloads 306

Authors: Liang Liu, Xiaopeng Luo

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose an accelerated stochastic gradient method with momentum. The momentum term is the weighted average of generated gradients, and the weights decay inverse proportionally with the iteration times. Stochastic gradient descent with momentum (SGDM) uses weights that decay exponentially with the iteration times to generate the momentum term. Using exponential decay weights, variants of SGDM with inexplicable and complicated formats have been proposed to achieve better performance. However, the momentum update rules of our method are as simple as that of SGDM. We provide theoretical convergence analyses, which show both the exponential decay weights and our inverse proportional decay weights can limit the variance of the parameter moving directly to a region. Experimental results show that our method works well with many practical problems and outperforms SGDM.

Keywords: exponential decay rate weight, gradient descent, inverse proportional decay rate weight, momentum

Procedia PDF Downloads 162

Authors: S. Rozhkova, O. Rozhkova, A. Harlova, V. Lasukov

Abstract:

We have conducted the optimal synthesis of root-mean-squared objective filter to estimate the state vector in the case if within the observation channel with memory the anomalous noises with unknown mathematical expectation are complement in the function of the regular noises. The synthesis has been carried out for linear stochastic systems of continuous-time.

Keywords: mathematical expectation, filtration, anomalous noise, memory

Procedia PDF Downloads 247

Authors: Riccardo Patriarca, Giulio Di Gravio, Francesco Costantino, Massimo Tronci

Abstract:

An accurate inventory management policy acquires a crucial role in the several high-availability sectors. In these sectors, due to the high-cost of spares and backorders, an (S-1, S) replenishment policy is necessary for high-availability items. The policy enables the shipment of a substitute efficient item anytime the inventory size decreases by one. This policy can be modelled following the Multi-Echelon Technique for Recoverable Item Control (METRIC). The METRIC is a system-based technique that allows defining the optimum stock level in a multi-echelon network, adopting measures in line with the decision-maker’s perspective. The METRIC defines an availability-cost function with inventory costs and required service levels, using as inputs data about the demand trend, the supplying and maintenance characteristics of the network and the budget/availability constraints. The traditional METRIC relies on the hypothesis that a Poisson distribution well represents the demand distribution in case of items with a low failure rate. However, in this research, we will explore the effects of using a Poisson distribution to model the demand of low failure rate items characterized by an irregular demand trend. This characteristic of a demand is not included in the traditional METRIC formulation leading to the need of revising its traditional formulation. Using the CV (Coefficient of Variation) and ADI (Average inter-Demand Interval) classification, we will define the inherent flaws of Poisson-based METRIC for irregular demand items, defining an innovative ad hoc distribution which can better fit the irregular demands. This distribution will allow defining proper stock levels to reduce stocking and backorder costs due to the high irregularities in the demand trend. A case study in the aviation domain will clarify the benefits of this innovative METRIC approach.

Keywords: METRIC, inventory management, irregular demand, spare parts

Procedia PDF Downloads 347