Search results for: sales process ARIMA models

Authors: Clive L. Morley

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Gravity models and panel data modelling of tourism flows are receiving renewed attention, after decades of general neglect. Such models have quite different underpinnings from conventional demand models derived from micro-economic theory. They operate at a different level of data and with different theoretical bases. These differences have important consequences for the interpretation of the results and their policy and managerial implications. This review compares and contrasts the two model forms, clarifying the distinguishing features and the estimation requirements of each. In general, gravity models are not recommended for use to address specific management and marketing purposes.

Keywords: gravity models, micro-economics, demand models, marketing

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Authors: Nice Vasconcelos Coimbra, Fábio dos Santos Gonçalves, Marisa Nascimento, Ellen Cristine Giese

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The development of chemical routes for the recovery and separation of rare earth elements (REE) is seen as a priority and strategic action by several countries demanding these elements. Among the possibilities of alternative routes, the biosorption process has been evaluated in our laboratory. In this theme, the present work attempts to assess and fit the solution equilibrium data in Langmuir, Freundlich and DKR isothermal models, based on the biosorption results of the lanthanum and samarium elements by Bacillus subtilis immobilized on calcium alginate gel. It was observed that the preference of adsorption of REE by the immobilized biomass followed the order Sm (III)> La (III). It can be concluded that among the studied isotherms models, the Langmuir model presented better mathematical results than the Freundlich and DKR models.

Keywords: rare earth elements, biosorption, Bacillus subtilis, adsorption isotherm models

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Authors: Pia I. Hautamäki

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Sales has changed. Selling has taken on aspects of relationship marketing and sales force play a critical role in developing long-term relationships between buyers and sellers which is seen to serve the company’s targets and create success for a long run. The purpose of this study was to examine what really matters in buyer-seller encounters and determine what expectations business buyers have. We studied 17 business buyers by a qualitative interview. We found that buyers appreciate encounters where the salesperson face the buyer as a way he or she is as a person, identificate the real needs to improve buyers’ business and build up cooperation for long-term relationship. This study show that personality matters are a key elements when satisfying business buyers’ expectations.

Keywords: business buyer-seller encounters, customer expectations, perceived similarity, personal selling, personality types

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Authors: Hamed K. Esfahani, Bithin Datta

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Transport of reactive chemical contaminant species in groundwater aquifers is a complex and highly non-linear physical and geochemical process especially for real life scenarios. Simulating this transport process involves solving complex nonlinear equations and generally requires huge computational time for a given aquifer study area. Development of optimal remediation strategies in aquifers may require repeated solution of such complex numerical simulation models. To overcome this computational limitation and improve the computational feasibility of large number of repeated simulations, Genetic Programming based trained surrogate models are developed to approximately simulate such complex transport processes. Transport process of acid mine drainage, a hazardous pollutant is first simulated using a numerical simulated model: HYDROGEOCHEM 5.0 for a contaminated aquifer in a historic mine site. Simulation model solution results for an illustrative contaminated aquifer site is then approximated by training and testing a Genetic Programming (GP) based surrogate model. Performance evaluation of the ensemble GP models as surrogate models for the reactive species transport in groundwater demonstrates the feasibility of its use and the associated computational advantages. The results show the efficiency and feasibility of using ensemble GP surrogate models as approximate simulators of complex hydrogeologic and geochemical processes in a contaminated groundwater aquifer incorporating uncertainties in historic mine site.

Keywords: geochemical transport simulation, acid mine drainage, surrogate models, ensemble genetic programming, contaminated aquifers, mine sites

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Authors: Kachout Mnaouer, Bel Hadj Tahar Jamel, Choubani Fethi

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In this paper, three electric equivalent models to evaluate crosstalk between three-conductor transmission lines are proposed. First, electric equivalent models for three-conductor transmission lines are presented. Secondly, rigorous equations to calculate the per-unit length inductive and capacitive parameters are developed. These models allow us to calculate crosstalk between conductors. Finally, to validate the presented models, we compare the theoretical results with simulation data. Obtained results show that proposed models can be used to predict crosstalk performance.

Keywords: near-end crosstalk, inductive parameter, L, Π, T models

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Authors: Farnaz Farhangi

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Many people in New Zealand believe that the access to water is inexhaustible, and it comes from a history of virtually unrestricted access to it. For the region like Hamilton which is one of New Zealand’s fastest growing cities, it is crucial for policy makers to know about the future water consumption and implementation of rules and regulation such as universal water metering. Hamilton residents use water freely and they do not have any idea about how much water they use. Hence, one of proposed objectives of this research is focusing on forecasting water consumption using different methods. Residential water consumption time series exhibits seasonal and trend variations. Seasonality is the pattern caused by repeating events such as weather conditions in summer and winter, public holidays, etc. The problem with this seasonal fluctuation is that, it dominates other time series components and makes difficulties in determining other variations (such as educational campaign’s effect, regulation, etc.) in time series. Apart from seasonality, a stochastic trend is also combined with seasonality and makes different effects on results of forecasting. According to the forecasting literature, preprocessing (de-trending and de-seasonalization) is essential to have more performed forecasting results, while some other researchers mention that seasonally non-adjusted data should be used. Hence, I answer the question that is pre-processing essential? A wide range of forecasting methods exists with different pros and cons. In this research, I apply double seasonal ARIMA and Artificial Neural Network (ANN), considering diverse elements such as seasonality and calendar effects (public and school holidays) and combine their results to find the best predicted values. My hypothesis is the examination the results of combined method (hybrid model) and individual methods and comparing the accuracy and robustness. In order to use ARIMA, the data should be stationary. Also, ANN has successful forecasting applications in terms of forecasting seasonal and trend time series. Using a hybrid model is a way to improve the accuracy of the methods. Due to the fact that water demand is dominated by different seasonality, in order to find their sensitivity to weather conditions or calendar effects or other seasonal patterns, I combine different methods. The advantage of this combination is reduction of errors by averaging of each individual model. It is also useful when we are not sure about the accuracy of each forecasting model and it can ease the problem of model selection. Using daily residential water consumption data from January 2000 to July 2015 in Hamilton, I indicate how prediction by different methods varies. ANN has more accurate forecasting results than other method and preprocessing is essential when we use seasonal time series. Using hybrid model reduces forecasting average errors and increases the performance.

Keywords: artificial neural network (ANN), double seasonal ARIMA, forecasting, hybrid model

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Authors: Robert Smith, Omar Espinoza, Anna Pitta

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In the United States, trees felled in urban areas and wood generated through construction and demolition are primarily disposed of as low-value resources, such as biomass for energy, landscaping mulch, composting, or landfilled. An emerging industry makes use of these underutilized resources to produce high value-added products, with associated benefits for the environment, the local economy, and consumers. For the circular economy to be successful, markets must be created for sustainable, reusable natural materials. Research was carried out to increase the understanding of the marketing practices of urban and reclaimed wood industries. This paper presents the results of a nationwide survey of these companies. The results indicate that a majority of companies in this industry are small firms, operating for less than 10 years, which produce mostly to order and sell their products at comparatively higher prices than competing products made from virgin natural resources. Promotional messages included quality, aesthetics, and customization, conveyed through company webpages, word of mouth, and social media. Distribution channels used include direct sales, online sales, and retail sales. Partnerships are critical for effective raw material procurement. Respondents indicated optimistic growth expectations, despite barriers associated with urban and reclaimed wood materials and production.

Keywords: urban and reclaimed wood, circular economy, marketing, wood products

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Authors: František Šebek, Petr Kubík, Jindřich Petruška, Jiří Hůlka

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Present study is aimed on the cutting process of circular cross-section rods where the fracture is used to separate one rod into two pieces. Incorporating the phenomenological ductile fracture model into the explicit formulation of finite element method, the process can be analyzed without the necessity of realizing too many real experiments which could be expensive in case of repetitive testing in different conditions. In the present paper, the steel AISI 1045 was examined and the tensile tests of smooth and notched cylindrical bars were conducted together with biaxial testing of the notched tube specimens to calibrate material constants of selected phenomenological ductile fracture models. These were implemented into the Abaqus/Explicit through user subroutine VUMAT and used for cutting process simulation. As the calibration process is based on variables which cannot be obtained directly from experiments, numerical simulations of fracture tests are inevitable part of the calibration. Finally, experiments regarding the cutting process were carried out and predictive capability of selected fracture models is discussed. Concluding remarks then make the summary of gained experience both with the calibration and application of particular ductile fracture criteria.

Keywords: ductile fracture, phenomenological criteria, cutting process, explicit formulation, AISI 1045 steel

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Authors: Imene Skhakhfa, Lahbaci Ouerdachi

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To ensure the overall coherence of simulated results, it is necessary to develop a robust validation process. In many applications, it is no longer content to calibrate and validate the model only in relation to the hydro graph measured at the outlet, but we try to better simulate the functioning of the watershed in space. Therefore the timing also performs compared to other variables such as water level measurements in intermediate stations or groundwater levels. As part of this work, we limit ourselves to modeling flood of short duration for which the process of evapotranspiration is negligible. The main parameters to identify the models are related to the method of unit hydro graph (HU). Three different models were tested: SNYDER, CLARK and SCS. These models differ in their mathematical structure and parameters to be calibrated while hydrological data are the same, the initial water content and precipitation. The models are compared on the basis of their performance in terms six objective criteria, three global criteria and three criteria representing volume, peak flow, and the mean square error. The first type of criteria gives more weight to strong events whereas the second considers all events to be of equal weight. The results show that the calibrated parameter values are dependent and also highlight the problems associated with the simulation of low flow events and intermittent precipitation.

Keywords: model calibration, intensity, runoff, hydrograph

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Authors: Emily Fortune Super, Ameerah Khadaroo, Aurore Bardey

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Fashion models are often assumed to have a glamorous job with limited consideration for their well-being. This study aims to assess the well-being of models through semi-structured interviews with six professional fashion models and six industry professionals. Thematic analysis revealed that although models experienced improved self-confidence, they also reported heightened anxiety levels, body image issues, and the negative influence of modelling on their self-esteem. By contrast, industry professionals reported no or minimum concerns about anxious behaviours or the general well-being of fashion models. Being resilient as a model was perceived as an essential attribute to have by both models and industry professionals as they face recurrent rejection in this industry. These results demonstrate a significant gap in the current understanding of the well-being of fashion models between industry professionals and the models themselves. Findings imply that there is an inherent need for change in the modelling industry to promote and enhance their well-being.

Keywords: body image, fashion industry, modelling, well-being

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Authors: Revoti Prasad Bora, Nikita Katyal

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Promotion is a key element in the retail business. Thus, analysis of promotions to quantify their effectiveness in terms of Revenue and/or Margin is an essential activity in the retail industry. However, measuring the sales/revenue uplift is based on estimations, as the actual sales/revenue without the promotion is not present. Further, the presence of Halo and Cannibalization in a multiple parallel promotions’ scenario complicates the problem. Calculating Baseline by considering inter-brand/competitor items or using Halo and Cannibalization's impact on Revenue calculations by considering Baseline as an interpretation of items’ unit sales in neighboring nonpromotional weeks individually may not capture the overall Revenue uplift in the case of multiple parallel promotions. Hence, this paper proposes a Machine Learning based method for calculating the Revenue uplift by considering the Halo and Cannibalization impact on the Baseline and the Revenue. In the first section of the proposed methodology, Baseline of an item is calculated by incorporating the impact of the promotions on its related items. In the later section, the Revenue of an item is calculated by considering both Halo and Cannibalization impacts. Hence, this methodology enables correct calculation of the overall Revenue uplift due a given promotion.

Keywords: Halo, Cannibalization, promotion, Baseline, temporary price reduction, retail, elasticity, cross price elasticity, machine learning, random forest, linear regression

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Authors: Burcu Kaya, Jan-Martin Kaiser, Karl-Friedrich Becker, Tanja Braun, Klaus-Dieter Lang

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Quality of the molded packages is strongly influenced by the process parameters of the transfer molding. To achieve a better package quality and a stable transfer molding process, it is necessary to understand the influence of the process parameters on the package quality. This work aims to comprehend the relationship between the process parameters, and to identify the optimum process parameters for the transfer molding process in order to achieve less voids and wire sweep. To achieve this, a DoE is executed for process optimization and a regression analysis is carried out. A systematic approach is represented to generate models which enable an estimation of the number of voids and wire sweep. Validation experiments are conducted to verify the model and the results are presented.

Keywords: dielectric analysis, electronic packages, epoxy molding compounds, transfer molding process

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Authors: Ignitia Motjolopane

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Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) play an important role in economies by contributing to economic growth and employment. In the fourth industrial revolution, the convergence of technologies and the changing nature of work created pressures on economies globally. Generative artificial intelligence (AI) may support SMEs in exploring, exploiting, and transforming business models to align with their growth aspirations. SMEs' growth aspirations fall into four categories: subsistence, income, growth, and speculative. Subsistence-oriented firms focus on meeting basic financial obligations and show less motivation for business model innovation. SMEs focused on income, growth, and speculation are more likely to pursue business model innovation to support growth strategies. SMEs' strategic goals link to distinct business model innovation paths depending on whether SMEs are starting a new business, pursuing growth, or seeking profitability. Integrating generative artificial intelligence in start-up SME business model innovation enhances value creation, user-oriented innovation, and SMEs' ability to adapt to dynamic changes in the business environment. The existing literature may lack comprehensive frameworks and guidelines for effectively integrating generative AI in start-up reiterative business model innovation paths. This paper examines start-up business model innovation path with generative artificial intelligence. A theoretical approach is used to examine start-up-focused SME reiterative business model innovation path with generative AI. Articulating how generative AI may be used to support SMEs to systematically and cyclically build the business model covering most or all business model components and analyse and test the BM's viability throughout the process. As such, the paper explores generative AI usage in market exploration. Moreover, market exploration poses unique challenges for start-ups compared to established companies due to a lack of extensive customer data, sales history, and market knowledge. Furthermore, the paper examines the use of generative AI in developing and testing viable value propositions and business models. In addition, the paper looks into identifying and selecting partners with generative AI support. Selecting the right partners is crucial for start-ups and may significantly impact success. The paper will examine generative AI usage in choosing the right information technology, funding process, revenue model determination, and stress testing business models. Stress testing business models validate strong and weak points by applying scenarios and evaluating the robustness of individual business model components and the interrelation between components. Thus, the stress testing business model may address these uncertainties, as misalignment between an organisation and its environment has been recognised as the leading cause of company failure. Generative AI may be used to generate business model stress-testing scenarios. The paper is expected to make a theoretical and practical contribution to theory and approaches in crafting a robust business model innovation path with generative artificial intelligence in start-up SMEs.

Keywords: business models, innovation, generative AI, small medium enterprises

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Authors: Shunichi Ohmori, Sirawadee Arunyanart, Kazuho Yoshimoto

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We consider a periodic review inventory control problem of minimizing production cost, inventory cost, and lost-sales under demand uncertainty, in which product demands are not specified exactly and it is only known to belong to a given uncertainty set, yet the constraints must hold for possible values of the data from the uncertainty set. We propose a robust optimization formulation for obtaining lowest cost possible and guaranteeing the feasibility with respect to range of order quantity and inventory level under demand uncertainty. Our formulation is based on the adaptive robust counterpart, which suppose order quantity is affine function of past demands. We derive certainty equivalent problem via second-order cone programming, which gives 'not too pessimistic' worst-case.

Keywords: robust optimization, inventory control, supply chain managment, second-order programming

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Authors: Elif Aykin Dincer, Mustafa Erbas

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The vacuum drying behavior of beef slices (10 x 4 x 0.2 cm3) was experimentally investigated at the temperature of 60, 70, and 80°C under 25 mbar ultimate vacuum pressure and the mathematical models (Lewis, Page, Midilli, Two-term, Wangh and Singh and Modified Henderson and Pabis) were used to fit the vacuum drying of beef slices. The increase in drying air temperature resulted in a decrease in drying time. It took approximately 206, 180 and 157 min to dry beef slices from an initial moisture content to a final moisture content of 0.05 kg water/kg dry matter at 60, 70 and 80 °C of vacuum drying, respectively. It is also observed that the drying rate increased with increasing drying temperature. The coefficients (R2), the reduced chi-square (x²) and root mean square error (RMSE) values were obtained by application of six models to the experimental drying data. The best model with the highest R2 and, the lowest x² and RMSE values was selected to describe the drying characteristics of beef slices. The Page model has shown a better fit to the experimental drying data as compared to other models. In addition, the effective moisture diffusivities of beef slices in the vacuum drying at 60 - 80 °C varied in the range of 1.05 – 1.09 x 10-10 m2/s. Consequently, this results can be used to simulate vacuum drying process of beef slices and improve efficiency of the drying process.

Keywords: beef slice, drying models, effective diffusivity, vacuum

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Authors: Yazid Abdullahi Abubakar, Jay Mitra

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This paper is concerned with entrepreneurial high-impact firms, which are firms that generate ‘both’ disproportionate levels of employment and sales growth, and have high levels of innovative activity. It investigates differences in factors influencing high-impact growth between indigenous and foreign firms. The study is based on an analysis of data from United Kingdom (UK) Innovation Scoreboard on 865 firms, which were divided into high-impact firms (those achieving positive growth in both sales and employment) and low-impact firms (negative or no growth in sales or employment); in order to identifying the critical differences in regional, sectorial and size related factors that facilitate knowledge spillovers and high-impact growth between indigenous and foreign firms. The findings suggest that: 1) Firms’ access to regional knowledge spillovers (from businesses and higher education institutions) is more significantly associated with high-impact growth of UK firms in comparison to foreign firms, 2) Because high-tech sectors have greater use of knowledge spillovers (compared to low-tech sectors), high-tech sectors are more associated with high-impact growth, but the relationship is stronger for UK firms compared to foreign firms, 3) Because small firms have greater need for knowledge spillovers (relative to large firms), there is a negative relationship between firm size and high-impact growth, but the negative relationship is greater for UK firms in comparison to foreign firms.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, high-growth, indigenous firms, foreign firms, small firms, large firms

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Authors: José M. Brotons, Manuel E. Sansalvador

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The relationship between Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and financial performance (FP) is a subject of great interest that has not yet been resolved. In this work, we have developed a new and original tool to measure this relation. The tool quantifies the value contributed to companies that are committed to CSR. The theoretical model used is the fuzzy discounted cash flow method. Two assumptions have been considered, the first, the company has implemented the IQNet SR10 certification, and the second, the company has not implemented that certification. For the first one, the growth rate used for the time horizon is the rate maintained by the company after obtaining the IQNet SR10 certificate. For the second one, both, the growth rates company prior to the implementation of the certification, and the evolution of the sector will be taken into account. By using triangular fuzzy numbers, it is possible to deal adequately with each company’s forecasts as well as the information corresponding to the sector. Once the annual growth rate of the sales is obtained, the profit and loss accounts are generated from the annual estimate sales. For the remaining elements of this account, their regression with the nets sales has been considered. The difference between these two valuations, made in a fuzzy environment, allows obtaining the value of the IQNet SR10 certification. Although this study presents an innovative methodology to quantify the relation between CSR and FP, the authors are aware that only one company has been analyzed. This is precisely the main limitation of this study which in turn opens up an interesting line for future research: to broaden the sample of companies.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility, case study, financial performance, company valuation

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Authors: Thiago Victor Cordeiro Marcos, Joao Felipe de Araujo Martos, Ronaldo de Lima Cardoso, David Romanelli Pinto, Paulo Gilberto de Paula Toro, Israel da Silveira Rego, Antonio Carlos de Oliveira

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Currently, the use of 3D rapid prototyping, also known as 3D printing, has been investigated by some universities around the world as an innovative technique, fast, flexible and cheap for a direct plastic models manufacturing that are lighter and with complex geometries to be tested for hypersonic shock tunnel. Initially, the purpose is integrated prototyped parts with metal models that actually are manufactured through of the conventional machining and hereafter replace them with completely prototyped models. The mechanical design models to be tested in hypersonic shock tunnel are based on conventional manufacturing processes, therefore are limited forms and standard geometries. The use of 3D rapid prototyping offers a range of options that enables geometries innovation and ways to be used for the design new models. The conception and project of a prototyped model for hypersonic shock tunnel should be rethought and adapted when comparing the conventional manufacturing processes, in order to fully exploit the creativity and flexibility that are allowed by the 3D prototyping process. The objective of this paper is to compare the conception and project of a 3D rapid prototyping model and a conventional machining model, while showing the advantages and disadvantages of each process and the benefits that 3D prototyping can bring to the manufacture of models to be tested in hypersonic shock tunnel.

Keywords: 3D printing, 3D prototyping, experimental research, hypersonic shock tunnel

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Authors: Suvarna Kumar Gogula, Sandhya Devi Gogula, P. Chanakya

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Augmented reality is defined as the collection of the digital (or) computer generated information like images, audio, video, 3d models, etc. and overlay them over the real time environment. Augmented reality can be thought as a blend between completely synthetic and completely real. Augmented reality provides scope in a wide range of industries like manufacturing, retail, gaming, advertisement, tourism, etc. and brings out new dimensions in the modern digital world. As it overlays the content, it makes the users enhance the knowledge by providing the content blended with real world. In this application, we integrated augmented reality with data analytics and integrated with cloud so the virtual content will be generated on the basis of the data present in the database and we used marker based augmented reality where every marker will be stored in the database with corresponding unique ID. This application can be used in wide range of industries for different business processes, but in this paper, we mainly focus on the marketing industry which helps the customer in gaining the knowledge about the products in the market which mainly focus on their prices, customer feedback, quality, and other benefits. This application also focuses on providing better market strategy information for marketing managers who obtain the data about the stocks, sales, customer response about the product, etc. In this paper, we also included the reports from the feedback got from different people after the demonstration, and finally, we presented the future scope of Augmented Reality in different business processes by integrating with new technologies like cloud, big data, artificial intelligence, etc.

Keywords: augmented reality, data analytics, catch room, marketing and sales

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Authors: Mohammed Ibrahim Girei

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Adamawa state is one the major producers of both crop and animals in Nigeria. Agricultural production serves as the major means livelihood of the people in the state. However, the agricultural activities of the farmers in the state are at subsistence level. However integration of these small scale farmers in local, national and international market is paramount importance. The paper was designed to categorize farmers based on market participation among the cattle farmers in Adamawa state, Nigeria. The multistage sampling procedure was employed. To achieve this procedure, structured questionnaires were used to collect data from 400 respondents. The data were analyzed using the descriptive statistics. The result revealed that the majority of market participants were net sellers (78.51 %) (Sales greater than purchase), net buyers were (purchase greater than sales) 12.95 % and only 9% were autarkic (sales equal purchase). The study recommends that Government should provide more effective security services in cattle farming communities, which is very important as the market participants in the study area were net sellers (producers), it will help in addressing the problem of cattle rustling and promote more investment in cattle industry. There is a need to establish a standard cattle market, veterinary services and grazing reserves in the area so that to facilitate the cattle production and marketing system in the area and to meet up with the challenging of livestock development as a result of rapid human population growth in developing countries like Nigeria.

Keywords: categories, cattle, farmers, market, participation

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Authors: Tolulope Aremu

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This paper is based on the idea of using deep learning methodology for optimizing production yield by tuning a few key process parameters in a manufacturing environment. The study was explicitly on how to maximize production yield and minimize operational costs by utilizing advanced neural network models, specifically Long Short-Term Memory and Convolutional Neural Networks. These models were implemented using Python-based frameworks—TensorFlow and Keras. The targets of the research are the precision molding processes in which temperature ranges between 150°C and 220°C, the pressure ranges between 5 and 15 bar, and the material flow rate ranges between 10 and 50 kg/h, which are critical parameters that have a great effect on yield. A dataset of 1 million production cycles has been considered for five continuous years, where detailed logs are present showing the exact setting of parameters and yield output. The LSTM model would model time-dependent trends in production data, while CNN analyzed the spatial correlations between parameters. Models are designed in a supervised learning manner. For the model's loss, an MSE loss function is used, optimized through the Adam optimizer. After running a total of 100 training epochs, 95% accuracy was achieved by the models recommending optimal parameter configurations. Results indicated that with the use of RSM and DOE traditional methods, there was an increase in production yield of 12%. Besides, the error margin was reduced by 8%, hence consistent quality products from the deep learning models. The monetary value was annually around $2.5 million, the cost saved from material waste, energy consumption, and equipment wear resulting from the implementation of optimized process parameters. This system was deployed in an industrial production environment with the help of a hybrid cloud system: Microsoft Azure, for data storage, and the training and deployment of their models were performed on Google Cloud AI. The functionality of real-time monitoring of the process and automatic tuning of parameters depends on cloud infrastructure. To put it into perspective, deep learning models, especially those employing LSTM and CNN, optimize the production yield by fine-tuning process parameters. Future research will consider reinforcement learning with a view to achieving further enhancement of system autonomy and scalability across various manufacturing sectors.

Keywords: production yield optimization, deep learning, tuning of process parameters, LSTM, CNN, precision manufacturing, TensorFlow, Keras, cloud infrastructure, cost saving

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Authors: Oluwatosin Olofintoye, Josiah Adeyemo, Gbemileke Shomade

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The relationship between rainfall and runoff is an important issue in surface water hydrology therefore the understanding and development of accurate rainfall-runoff models and their applications in water resources planning, management and operation are of paramount importance in hydrological studies. This paper reviews some of the previous works on the rainfall-runoff process modeling. The hydrologic applications of conceptual models and artificial neural networks (ANNs) for the precipitation-runoff process modeling were studied. Gradient training methods such as error back-propagation (BP) and evolutionary algorithms (EAs) are discussed in relation to the training of artificial neural networks and it is shown that application of EAs to artificial neural networks training could be an alternative to other training methods. Therefore, further research interest to exploit the abundant expert knowledge in the area of artificial intelligence for the solution of hydrologic and water resources planning and management problems is needed.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, artificial neural networks, evolutionary algorithms, gradient training method, rainfall-runoff model

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Authors: T. Jayanthi, K. Velusamy, H. Seetha, S. A. V. Satya Murty

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Verification and Validation of Simulated Process Model is the most important phase of the simulator life cycle. Evaluation of simulated process models based on Verification and Validation techniques checks the closeness of each component model (in a simulated network) with the real system/process with respect to dynamic behaviour under steady state and transient conditions. The process of Verification and validation helps in qualifying the process simulator for the intended purpose whether it is for providing comprehensive training or design verification. In general, model verification is carried out by comparison of simulated component characteristics with the original requirement to ensure that each step in the model development process completely incorporates all the design requirements. Validation testing is performed by comparing the simulated process parameters to the actual plant process parameters either in standalone mode or integrated mode. A Full Scope Replica Operator Training Simulator for PFBR - Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor has been developed at IGCAR, Kalpakkam, INDIA named KALBR-SIM (Kalpakkam Breeder Reactor Simulator) wherein the main participants are engineers/experts belonging to Modeling Team, Process Design and Instrumentation and Control design team. This paper discusses the Verification and Validation process in general, the evaluation procedure adopted for PFBR operator training Simulator, the methodology followed for verifying the models, the reference documents and standards used etc. It details out the importance of internal validation by design experts, subsequent validation by external agency consisting of experts from various fields, model improvement by tuning based on expert’s comments, final qualification of the simulator for the intended purpose and the difficulties faced while co-coordinating various activities.

Keywords: Verification and Validation (V&V), Prototype Fast Breeder Reactor (PFBR), Kalpakkam Breeder Reactor Simulator (KALBR-SIM), steady state, transient state

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Authors: Aishwarya Rai

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This study explores the transformative influence of generative AI on startups, businesses, and industries. We will explore how large businesses can benefit in the area of customer operations, where AI-powered chatbots can improve self-service and agent effectiveness, greatly increasing efficiency. In marketing and sales, generative AI could transform businesses by automating content development, data utilization, and personalization, resulting in a substantial increase in marketing and sales productivity. In software engineering-focused startups, generative AI can streamline activities, significantly impacting coding processes and work experiences. It can be extremely useful in product R&D for market analysis, virtual design, simulations, and test preparation, altering old workflows and increasing efficiency. Zooming into the retail and CPG industry, industry findings suggest a 1-2% increase in annual revenues, equating to $400 billion to $660 billion. By automating customer service, marketing, sales, and supply chain management, generative AI can streamline operations, optimizing personalized offerings and presenting itself as a disruptive force. While celebrating economic potential, we acknowledge challenges like external inference and adversarial attacks. Human involvement remains crucial for quality control and security in the era of generative AI-driven transformative innovation. This talk provides a comprehensive exploration of generative AI's pivotal role in reshaping businesses, recognizing its strategic impact on customer interactions, productivity, and operational efficiency.

Keywords: generative AI, digital transformation, LLM, artificial intelligence, startups, businesses

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Authors: Amit Gill, Lalith Wijerathne, Sebastian Poledna

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This research presents the details of the implementation of high performance computing (HPC) extension of agent-based economic models (ABEMs) to simulate hundreds of millions of heterogeneous agents. ABEMs offer an alternative approach to study the economy as a dynamic system of interacting heterogeneous agents, and are gaining popularity as an alternative to standard economic models. Over the last decade, ABEMs have been increasingly applied to study various problems related to monetary policy, bank regulations, etc. When it comes to predicting the effects of local economic disruptions, like major disasters, changes in policies, exogenous shocks, etc., on the economy of the country or the region, it is pertinent to study how the disruptions cascade through every single economic entity affecting its decisions and interactions, and eventually affect the economic macro parameters. However, such simulations with hundreds of millions of agents are hindered by the lack of HPC enhanced ABEMs. In order to address this, a scalable Distributed Memory Parallel (DMP) implementation of ABEMs has been developed using message passing interface (MPI). A balanced distribution of computational load among MPI-processes (i.e. CPU cores) of computer clusters while taking all the interactions among agents into account is a major challenge for scalable DMP implementations. Economic agents interact on several random graphs, some of which are centralized (e.g. credit networks, etc.) whereas others are dense with random links (e.g. consumption markets, etc.). The agents are partitioned into mutually-exclusive subsets based on a representative employer-employee interaction graph, while the remaining graphs are made available at a minimum communication cost. To minimize the number of communications among MPI processes, real-life solutions like the introduction of recruitment agencies, sales outlets, local banks, and local branches of government in each MPI-process, are adopted. Efficient communication among MPI-processes is achieved by combining MPI derived data types with the new features of the latest MPI functions. Most of the communications are overlapped with computations, thereby significantly reducing the communication overhead. The current implementation is capable of simulating a small open economy. As an example, a single time step of a 1:1 scale model of Austria (i.e. about 9 million inhabitants and 600,000 businesses) can be simulated in 15 seconds. The implementation is further being enhanced to simulate 1:1 model of Euro-zone (i.e. 322 million agents).

Keywords: agent-based economic model, high performance computing, MPI-communication, MPI-process

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Authors: Nieto Bernal Wilson, Carmona Suarez Edgar

Abstract:

The organizations have structured and unstructured information in different formats, sources, and systems. Part of these come from ERP under OLTP processing that support the information system, however these organizations in OLAP processing level, presented some deficiencies, part of this problematic lies in that does not exist interesting into extract knowledge from their data sources, as also the absence of operational capabilities to tackle with these kind of projects.  Data Warehouse and its applications are considered as non-proprietary tools, which are of great interest to business intelligence, since they are repositories basis for creating models or patterns (behavior of customers, suppliers, products, social networks and genomics) and facilitate corporate decision making and research. The following paper present a structured methodology, simple, inspired from the agile development models as Scrum, XP and AUP. Also the models object relational, spatial data models, and the base line of data modeling under UML and Big data, from this way sought to deliver an agile methodology for the developing of data warehouses, simple and of easy application. The methodology naturally take into account the application of process for the respectively information analysis, visualization and data mining, particularly for patterns generation and derived models from the objects facts structured.

Keywords: data warehouse, model data, big data, object fact, object relational fact, process developed data warehouse

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Authors: Simiso Fisokuhle Nyandeni

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Climate change has turned out to be a pandemic that has drawn the attention of many countries’ households around the globe, especially those whose livelihood and economic status depend on agricultural productivity. Hence, the agricultural sector is regarded as the sector that is most dependent on climate conditions for its productivity/harvest, yet in recent years this sector has been experiencing drought. However, adaptation seems to be a tool that every farmer looks upon as a solution to their challenges as their productivity keeps on being vulnerable to climate effects. Thus, exposure/access to the market seems to be a major challenge that faces especially small-scale farmers. We, therefore, examine the small-scale farmers’ constraints or challenges towards getting access to the market for them to get proper sales of their farming products. As a result, the adaptation capacity of every farm household varies on the financial status.

Keywords: climate change, small-scale farming, agriculture sector, adaptation

Procedia PDF Downloads 83

Authors: Hyun-Woo Cho

Abstract:

For ensuring the safety of a manufacturing process one should quickly identify an assignable cause of a fault in an on-line basis. To this end, many statistical techniques including linear and nonlinear methods have been frequently utilized. However, such methods possessed a major problem of small sample size, which is mostly attributed to the characteristics of empirical models used for reference models. This work presents a new method to overcome the insufficiency of measurement data in the monitoring and diagnosis tasks. Some quasi-measurement data are generated from existing data based on the two indices of similarity and importance. The performance of the method is demonstrated using a real data set. The results turn out that the presented methods are able to handle the insufficiency problem successfully. In addition, it is shown to be quite efficient in terms of computational speed and memory usage, and thus on-line implementation of the method is straightforward for monitoring and diagnosis purposes.

Keywords: data analysis, diagnosis, monitoring, process data, quality control

Procedia PDF Downloads 480

Authors: Rene Hellmuth, Jorg Frohnmayer

Abstract:

The requirements of the factory planning and the building concerned have changed in the last years. Factory planning has the task of designing products, plants, processes, organization, areas, and the building of a factory. Regular restructuring gains more importance in order to maintain the competitiveness of a factory. Even today, the methods and process models used in factory planning are predominantly based on the classical planning principles of Schmigalla, Aggteleky and Kettner, which, however, are not specifically designed for reorganization. In addition, they are designed for a largely static environmental situation and a manageable planning complexity as well as for medium to long-term planning cycles with a low variability of the factory. Existing approaches already regard factory planning as a continuous process that makes it possible to react quickly to adaptation requirements. However, digital factory models are not yet used as a source of information for building data. Approaches which consider building information modeling (BIM) or digital factory models in general either do not refer to factory conversions or do not yet go beyond a concept. This deficit can be further substantiated. A method for factory conversion planning using a current digital building model is lacking. A corresponding approach must take into account both the existing approaches to factory planning and the use of digital factory models in practice. A literature review will be conducted first. In it, approaches to classic factory planning and approaches to conversion planning are examined. In addition, it will be investigated which approaches already contain digital factory models. In the second step, an approach is presented how digital factory models based on building information modeling can be used as a basis for augmented reality tablet applications. This application is suitable for construction sites and provides information on the costs and time required for conversion variants. Thus a fast decision making is supported. In summary, the paper provides an overview of existing factory planning approaches and critically examines the use of digital tools. Based on this preliminary work, an approach is presented, which suggests the sensible use of digital factory models for decision support in the case of conversion variants of the factory building. The augmented reality application is designed to summarize the most important information for decision-makers during a reconstruction process.

Keywords: augmented reality, digital factory model, factory planning, restructuring

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Authors: Y. Tiamaz, N. Souissi

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to present a classification of Lean models which aims to capture all the concepts related to this approach and thus facilitate its implementation. This classification allows the identification of the most relevant models according to several dimensions. From this perspective, we present a review and an analysis of Lean models literature and we propose dimensions for the classification of the current proposals while respecting among others the axes of the Lean approach, the maturity of the models as well as their application domains. This classification allowed us to conclude that researchers essentially consider the Lean approach as a toolbox also they design their models to solve problems related to a specific environment. Since Lean approach is no longer intended only for the automotive sector where it was invented, but to all fields (IT, Hospital, ...), we consider that this approach requires a generic model that is capable of being implemented in all areas.

Keywords: lean approach, lean models, classification, dimensions, holistic view

Procedia PDF Downloads 433