Search results for: Reza Sadeghi

Authors: Mahdi Rahimi, Mohammad Mahdi Mojahedian, Mohammad Reza Aref

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In this paper, a cellular communication scenario with a transmitter and an authorized user is considered to analyze its secrecy in the face of eavesdroppers and the interferences propagated unintentionally through the communication network. It is also assumed that some D2D pairs and eavesdroppers are randomly located in the cell. Assuming hardware impairment, perfect connection probability is analytically calculated, and upper bound is provided for the secrecy outage probability. In addition, a method based on random activation of D2Ds is proposed to improve network security. Finally, the analytical results are verified by simulations.

Keywords: physical layer security, stochastic geometry, device-to-device, hardware impairment

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Authors: Reza Khani, Ziba Hosseini

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Ever since the importance of language learning strategy instruction (LLS) has been distinguished, there has been growing interest on how to teach LLS in language learning classrooms. So thus this study attempted to implement language strategy instruction based on CALLA approach for Iranian EFL learners in a real classroom setting. The study was testing the hypothesis that strategy instruction result in improved linguistic strategy of students. The participant of the study were 240 EFL learners who received language learning instruction for four months. The data collected using Oxford strategy inventory for language learning. The results indicated the instruction had statistically significant effect on language strategy use of intervention group who received instruction.

Keywords: CALLA, language learning strategy, language learning strategy instruction, Iranian EFL language strategy

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Authors: Mahboobeh Eghtesad, Reza Mohseni

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We develop methods for detecting a target for orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM) based radars. As a preliminary step we introduce the target and Gaussian noise models in discrete–time form. Then, resorting to match filter (MF) we derive a detector for two different scenarios: a non-fluctuating target and a Rayleigh fluctuating target. It will be shown that a MF is not suitable for Rayleigh fluctuating targets. In this paper we propose a reduced-complexity method based on fast Fourier transfrom (FFT) for such a situation. The proposed method has better detection performance.

Keywords: constant false alarm rate (CFAR), match filter (MF), fast Fourier transform (FFT), OFDM radars, Rayleigh fluctuating target

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Authors: Reza Mohammadi

Abstract:

Using quartic spline, we develop a method for numerical solution of singularly perturbed two-point boundary-value problems. The purposed method is fourth-order accurate and applicable to problems both in singular and non-singular cases. The convergence analysis of the method is given. The resulting linear system of equations has been solved by using a tri-diagonal solver. We applied the presented method to test problems which have been solved by other existing methods in references, for comparison of presented method with the existing methods. Numerical results are given to illustrate the efficiency of our methods.

Keywords: second-order ordinary differential equation, singularly-perturbed, quartic spline, convergence analysis

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Dawoudi

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With the increasing rate of patients suffering from chronic pain, several methods for evaluating of chronic pain are suggested. Motion of morbid has been defined as the rate of pine and it is linked with various co-morbid conditions. This study provides a summary of procedure useful to statistics performing direct behavioral observation in hospital settings. We describe the need for and usefulness of comprehensive “morbid motions” observations; provide a primer on the identification, definition, and assessment of morbid behaviors; and outline and discuss specific statistical procedures, including formulating referral motions, describing and conducting the observation. We also provide practical devices for observing and analyzing the obtained information into a report that guides clinical intervention.

Keywords: assessing pain, DNA modeling, image matching technique, pain scale

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Authors: Mohammadreza Aghasadeghi, Mojtaba Hamidi-Fard, Seyed Amir Sadeghi, Ashkan Noorbakhsh

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Introduction: HIV is known as one of the most important pathogens and mortality in all human societies, but unfortunately, no definitive cure has been found for it. Due to its weakened immune system, this virus causes a variety of primary and secondary opportunistic infections. Cytomegalovirus (CMV) is one of the most relevant opportunistic viruses seen in HIV-positive people that cause various infections in HIV-positive people. This virus causes various infections in HIV-positive people, such as retinal infection (CMVR), gastrointestinal infections, diarrhea, severe weight loss, and cerebrospinal fluid problems. These various infections make it important to evaluate the prevalence of CMV in HIV-positive people to diagnose it quickly and in a timely manner. This infection in HIV-positive people reduces life expectancy and causes serious harm to patients. However, a simple test in HIV-positive people can prevent the virus from progressing. Material and Methods: In this study, we collected 200 blood samples (including 147 men and 53 women) from HIV-positive individuals and examined the frequency of CMV-DNA in these cases by real-time PCR method. In the next step, the data was analyzed by SPSS software, and then we obtained the relationship between age, sex, and the frequency of CMV in HIV-positive individuals. Results: The total frequency of CMV DNA was about 59%, which is a relatively high prevalence due to the age range of the subjects. The frequency in men was 61.2% and 52.8% in women. This frequency was also higher in males than females. We also observed more frequency in two age groups of 16 to 30 years and 31 to 45 years. Discussion: Due to the high prevalence of CMV in HIV-positive individuals and causing serious problems in this group of people, this study was shown that both the patients and the community should pay more attention to this issue. Ministry of Health, as a stakeholder organization, can make CMV DNA testing mandatory as soon as a person is HIV positive.

Keywords: CMV, HIV, AIDS, real-time PCR, SPSS

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Authors: Fatemeh Ansarniya, Fatemeh Mirjalili, Hamid Reza Abedini, Shabnam Salari, M. Horasht

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The study of this research is the effect of using Fe₂O₃ and sum of alkalis elements in the floor tile production. At first, raw materials of floor tile with the same formulation of original sample was prepared and sintered for 39 minutes at 1130˚C in roller kiln and finally, physical properties of the sintered bodies based on floor tile standard process was investigated. The results showed that there was the possibility of production of floor tile containing different percentages of Fe₂O₃ and sum of Na₂O+ K₂O. With increasing the Fe₂O₃ and sum of Na₂O+ K₂O elements, the percentages of water absorption and raw, dry and sintered strengths were decreased, but the percentages of shrinkage were increased which caused the decreasing the percentages of expansion.

Keywords: floor tile, physical properties, Na2O+ K2O, Fe2O3

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Authors: Reza Mohammadi, Mahdieh Sahebi

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We develop a method based on polynomial quintic spline for numerical solution of fourth-order non-homogeneous parabolic partial differential equation with variable coefficient. By using polynomial quintic spline in off-step points in space and finite difference in time directions, we obtained two three level implicit methods. Stability analysis of the presented method has been carried out. We solve four test problems numerically to validate the derived method. Numerical comparison with other methods shows the superiority of presented scheme.

Keywords: fourth-order parabolic equation, variable coefficient, polynomial quintic spline, off-step points

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Authors: Mashayekh Amir Shahriar, Akhlaghi Morteza, Rajaee Hajar, Khani Mohammad Reza, Shokri Babak

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A new and novel approach in medicine is the use of cold plasma for various applications such as sterilization blood coagulation and cancer cell treatment. In this paper a pin-to-hole plasma jet suitable for biological applications is investigated, characterized and the possibility and feasibility of cancer cell treatment is evaluated. The characterization includes power consumption via Lissajous method, thermal behavior of plasma using Infra-red camera as a novel method, Optical Emission Spectroscopy (OES) to determine the species that are generated. Treatment of leukemia cancer cells is also implemented and MTT assay is used to evaluate viability.

Keywords: Atmospheric Pressure Plasma Jet (APPJ), Plasma Medicine, Cancer cell treatment, leukemia, Optical Emission

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Authors: Maryamosadat Ghasemi, Reza Amrollahi

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Plasma equilibrium geometry has a great influence on the confinement and magnetohydrodynamic stability in tokamaks. The poloidal field (PF) system of a tokamak should be able to support this plasma equilibrium geometry. In this work the prepared numerical code based on radial basis functions are presented and used to solve the Grad–Shafranov (GS) equation for the axisymmetric equilibrium of tokamak plasma. The radial basis functions (RBFs) which is a kind of numerical meshfree method (MFM) for solving partial differential equations (PDEs) has appeared in the last decade and is developing significantly in the last few years. This technique is applied in this study to obtain the equilibrium configuration for Alborz Tokamak. The behavior of numerical solution convergences show the validation of this calculations.

Keywords: equilibrium, grad–shafranov, radial basis functions, Alborz Tokamak

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Authors: Reza Eslami-Farsani, Mohammad Alipour

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The effect of deformation on the semisolid microstructure and degree of globularity of Al–15%Mg₂Si composite produced by the strain induced melt activation (SIMA) process was studied. Deformation of 25% was used. After deformation, the samples were heated to a temperature above the solidus and below the liquidus point and maintained in the isothermal conditions at three different temperatures (560, 580 and 595 °C) for varying time (5, 10, 20 and 40 min). The microstructural study was carried out on the alloy by the use of optical microscopy. It was observed that strain induced deformation and subsequently melt activation has caused the globular morphology of Mg₂Si particles. The results showed that for the desired microstructures of the alloy during SIMA process, the optimum temperature and time are 595 °C and 40 min respectively.

Keywords: deformation, semisolid, SIMA, Mg₂Si phase, modification

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Fooladi

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The patent system which fits with industrial and economic situation in the country, by strengthening research and development, technology transfer and increasing foreign investment can provide economic and industrial growth of the countries. However, the extent and manner of support should be commensurate with the country's conditions and comply with significant rules to have a positive effect on research and development, technology transfer and the amount of foreign investment. The present article tries to while reviewing the state of effectiveness of the patent system on economic growth, to illustrate the characteristics of the patent system fits Afghanistan and according to this matter provide the necessary recommendations about the improvement of laws and regulations related to the patent in Afghanistan.

Keywords: patent, economic growth, technology transfer, Afghanistan

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Authors: Reza Ziaie Moayed, Hamidreza Rahmani

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Today, with developments in science and technology, there is an excessive potential for the use of nanomaterials in various fields of geotechnical project such as soil stabilization. This study investigates the effect of Nano-SiO₂ solution on the unconfined compression strength and Young's elastic modulus of Kaolinite. For this purpose, nano-SiO₂ was mixed with kaolinite in five different contents: 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5% by weight of the dry soil and a series of the unconfined compression test with curing time of one-day was selected as laboratory test. Analyses of the tests results show that stabilization of kaolinite with Nano-SiO₂ solution can improve effectively the unconfined compression strength of modified soil up to 1.43 times compared to  the pure soil.

Keywords: kaolinite, Nano-SiO2, stabilization, unconfined compression test, Young's modulus

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Authors: Reza Sirjani, Nobosse Tafem Bolan

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Many optimization techniques available in the literature have been developed in order to solve the problem of voltage stability enhancement in power systems. However, there are a number of drawbacks in the use of previous techniques aimed at determining the optimal location and size of reactive compensators in a network. In this paper, an Improved Cuckoo Search algorithm is applied as an appropriate optimization algorithm to determine the optimum location and size of a Static Var Compensator (SVC) in a transmission network. The main objectives are voltage stability improvement and total cost minimization. The results of the presented technique are then compared with other available optimization techniques.

Keywords: cuckoo search algorithm, optimization, power system, var compensators, voltage stability

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Authors: Tooraj Karimi, Mohammadreza Sadeghi Moghadam

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Grey set theory has the advantage of using fewer data to analyze many factors, and it is therefore more appropriate for system study rather than traditional statistical regression which require massive data, normal distribution in the data and few variant factors. So, in this paper grey clustering and entropy of coefficient vector of grey evaluations are used to analyze energy consumption in buildings of the Oil Ministry in Tehran. In fact, this article intends to analyze the results of energy audit reports and defines most favorable characteristics of system, which is energy consumption of buildings, and most favorable factors affecting these characteristics in order to modify and improve them. According to the results of the model, ‘the real Building Load Coefficient’ has been selected as the most important system characteristic and ‘uncontrolled area of the building’ has been diagnosed as the most favorable factor which has the greatest effect on energy consumption of building. Grey clustering in this study has been used for two purposes: First, all the variables of building relate to energy audit cluster in two main groups of indicators and the number of variables is reduced. Second, grey clustering with variable weights has been used to classify all buildings in three categories named ‘no standard deviation’, ‘low standard deviation’ and ‘non- standard’. Entropy of coefficient vector of Grey evaluations is calculated to investigate greyness of results. It shows that among the 38 buildings surveyed in terms of energy consumption, 3 cases are in standard group, 24 cases are in ‘low standard deviation’ group and 11 buildings are completely non-standard. In addition, clustering greyness of 13 buildings is less than 0.5 and average uncertainly of clustering results is 66%.

Keywords: energy audit, grey set theory, grey incidence matrixes, grey clustering, Iran oil ministry

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Authors: Bagher Aziz Kalantari, Javad Rafiei, Mohamad Reza Talei Bavil Olyai

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Disclosed is a method of preparing a pigmentary chromium oxide nano particles having 50 percent particle size less than about 100nm. According to the disclosed method, a substantially dry solid composition of potassium dichromate and carbon active is heated in CO2 atmosphere to a temperature of about 600ºc for 1hr. Thereafter, the solid Cr2O3 product was washed twice with distilled water. The other aim of this study is to assess both the colouring performance and the potential of nano-pigments in the ceramic tile decoration. The rationable consists in nano-pigment application in several ceramics, including a comparison of colour performance with conventional micro-pigments.

Keywords: green chromium oxide, nano particles, colour performances, particle size

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Authors: Ahmad Esmaillzadeh, Javad Anjom-Shoae, Omid Sadeghi,

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Background: Although considerable research has been devoted to the link between consumption of legume and nuts and metabolic abnormalities, few studies have examined legume and nuts consumption in relation to psychological disorders. Objective: The current study aimed to examine the association of legume and nuts consumption with depression, anxiety and psychological distress in Iranian adults. Methods: This cross-sectional study was carried out among 3172 adult participants aged 18-55 years. Assessment of legume and nuts consumption was conducted using a validated dish-based 106-item semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire. The Iranian validated version of Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) was used to examine psychological health. Scores of 8 or more on either subscale in the questionnaire were considered to indicate the presence of depression or anxiety. Data on psychological distress were collected through the use of General Health Questionnaire (GHQ), in which the score of 4 or more was considered as having psychological distress. Results: Mean age of participants was 36.5±7.9 years. Compared with the lowest quintile, men in the highest quintile of legume and nuts consumption had lower odds of anxiety; such that after adjusting for potential confounding variables, men in the top quintile of legume and nuts consumption were 66% less likely to be anxious than those in the bottom quintile (OR: 0.34; 95% CI: 0.14-0.82). Such relationship was not observed among women. We failed to find any significant association between legume plus nuts consumption and depression or psychological distress after adjustment for potential confounders. Conclusion: We found that consumption of legume and nuts was associated with lower odds of anxiety in men, but not in women. No significant association was seen between consumption of legume and nuts and odds of depression or psychological disorder. Further prospective studies are required to confirm these findings.

Keywords: anxiety, depression, legumes, nuts, psychological distress

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Authors: Babak Qasemi-Panahi, Gholamali Moghaddam, Seyed-Abbas Rafat, Hossein Daghigh Kia, Mansoureh Movahedin, Reza Hadavi

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The objective of this study was to determine the effects of IGF-I on ovine oocytes maturation and subsequent development of embryos derived from in vitro fertilization (IVF). In vitro maturation (IVM) of oocytes and in vitro culture (IVC) of embryos was conducted with or without 100 ng/mL IGF-1. In the IGF-I treated group, mean percentage of oocyte maturation was significantly higher than the control group (57.67 ± 3.04 versus 49.81 ± 3.04%, respectively, P < 0.05). However, in comparison with control group, there was no significant effect of IGF-1 on rates of cleavage, morula, and blastocyst formation (85% versus 84%; 63% versus 65%, and 40% to 39%, respectively). These data demonstrate that IGF-I has a positive effect on ovine oocyte maturation rate, but it has not the significant outcome on embryo development.

Keywords: ovine, IGF-I, IVM, ICSI

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Authors: Reza Mohammadi

Abstract:

Using quartic spline, we develop a method for numerical solution of singularly perturbed two-point boundary-value problems. The purposed method is fourth-order accurate and applicable to problems both in singular and non-singular cases. The convergence analysis of the method is given. The resulting linear system of equations has been solved by using a tri-diagonal solver. We applied the presented method to test problems which have been solved by other existing methods in references, for comparison of presented method with the existing methods. Numerical results are given to illustrate the efficiency of our methods.

Keywords: second-order ordinary differential equation, singularly-perturbed, quartic spline, convergence analysis

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Authors: Akram Shahriyari, Reza Mokhtari Malek Abadi

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E-tourism is among the issues that have recently been entered into the field of tourism. In order to achieve this type of tourism, Information and Communications Technology (or ICT) infrastructures as well as Co-governmental organizations and tourism resources are important. In this study, the opinions of managers and tourism officials about the e-tourism in Lenjan city were measured; it also surveyed the impact of level of digital literacy of managers and tourism officials on attracting tourists in Lenjan city. This study was conducted in Lenjan, one of the environs of the Esfahan province. This study is a documentary – survey and the sources include library resources and also questionnaires. The results obtained indicate that if managers use ICT, it may help e-tourism to be developed in the region, and increasing managers’ beliefs on e-tourism and upgrading their level of digital literacy may affect e-tourism development.

Keywords: ICT, e-tourism, opinion of managers and officials, Lejnan

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Authors: Ali Reza Tahavvor, Saeed Hosseini, Nazli Jowkar, Behnam Amiri

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Heat transfer of leaves is a crucial factor in optimal operation of metabolic functions in plants. In order to quantify this phenomenon in different leaves and investigate the influence of leaf shape on heat transfer, natural convection for pine, orange and olive leaves was simulated as representatives of different groups of leaf shapes. CFD techniques were used in this simulation with the purpose to calculate heat transfer of leaves in similar environmental conditions. The problem was simulated for steady state and three-dimensional conditions. From obtained results, it was concluded that heat fluxes of all three different leaves are almost identical, however, total rate of heat transfer have highest and lowest values for orange leaves and pine leaves, respectively.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamic, heat flux, heat transfer, natural convection

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Authors: Mohammad Saberian, Mohammad Ali Rahgozar, Reza Porhoseini

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Peat soil is formed naturally through the accumulation of organic matter under water and it consists of more than 75% organic substances. Peat is considered to be in the category of problematic soil, which is not suitable for construction, due to its high compressibility, high moisture content, low shear strength, and low bearing capacity. Since this kind of soil is generally found in many countries and different regions, finding desirable techniques for stabilization of peat is absolutely essential. The purpose of this paper is to review the various techniques applied for stabilizing peat soil and discuss outcomes of its improved mechanical parameters and strength properties. Recognizing characterization of stabilized peat is one of the most significant factors for architectural structures; as a consequence, various strategies for stabilization of this susceptible soil have been examined based on the depth of peat deposit.

Keywords: peat soil, stabilization, depth, strength, unconfined compressive strength (USC)

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Authors: Hamid Kazemi, Abbasali Sadeghi

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Assessment of seismic behavior of frame structures is just done for evaluating life and financial damages or lost. The new structural seismic behavior assessment methods have been proposed, so it is necessary to define a formulation as a damage index, which the damage amount has been quantified and qualified. In this paper, four new steel moment-resisting frames with intermediate ductility and different height (2, 5, 8, and 12-story) with regular geometry and simple rectangular plan were supposed and designed. The three existing groups’ damage indices were studied, each group consisting of local index (Drift, Maximum Roof Displacement, Banon Failure, Kinematic, Banon Normalized Cumulative Rotation, Cumulative Plastic Rotation and Ductility), global index (Roufaiel and Meyer, Papadopoulos, Sozen, Rosenblueth, Ductility and Base Shear), and story (Banon Failure and Inter-story Rotation). The necessary parameters for these damage indices have been calculated under the effect of far-fault ground motion records by Non-linear Dynamic Time History Analysis. Finally, prioritization of damage indices is defined based on more conservative values in terms of more damageability rate. The results show that the selected damage index has an important effect on estimation of the damage state. Also, failure, drift, and Rosenblueth damage indices are more conservative indices respectively for local, story and global damage indices.

Keywords: damage index, far-fault ground motion records, non-linear time history analysis, SeismoStruct software, steel moment-resisting frame

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Authors: Reza Vakili

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The aim of this experiment was to optimize the effect of moisture, the production rate, grain particle size and steam conditioning temperature on pellet quality in broiler feed using Taguchi method and a 43 fractional factorial arrangement was conducted. Production rate, steam conditioning temperatures, particle sizes and moisture content were performed. During the production process, sampling was done, and then pellet durability index (PDI) and hardness evaluated in broiler feed grower and finisher. There was a significant effect of processing parameters on PDI and hardness. Based on the results of this experiment Taguchi method can be used to find the best combination of factors for optimal pellet quality.

Keywords: broiler, feed physical quality, hardness, processing parameters, PDI

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Authors: Zahra Raeisi, Reza Akbari

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Contracting is known as one of the important tasks in virtual organization creation. Contracting is a costly process in terms of time and effort. One way to cut the time and effort is conducting contract electronically. The online contracting enable us to form virtual organization (VO) dynamically. This work presents an agent-service oriented framework for online contracting in virtual organizations. The proposed framework considers the main aspects and steps of traditional contracting process and uses the efficiency of service and agent based methodologies in order to provide a flexible and efficient way to establish contracts electronically in a VO.

Keywords: service oriented architecture, online contracts, agent-oriented architecture, virtual organization

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Authors: Samira Berenji Ardestani, Hamid Reza Akhavan

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Gamma irradiation greatly reduces the potential microbiological risk of fresh fruits, resulting in improved microbial safety as well as extending their shelf life. The effects of 0.5-2 kGy gamma doses on some physicochemical, microbial and sensory properties of fresh barberry fruits (Berberis vulgaris) during refrigerated storage for 40 days were evaluated. The total anthocyanin and total phenolic contents of barberry fruits decreased in a dose-dependent manner immediately after irradiation and after subsequent storage. In general, it is recommended that, according to the effect of gamma radiation on physicochemical, microbial and sensorial characteristics, doses of 1.25-2 kGy could be used.

Keywords: antioxidant property, barberry fruit, chemical properties, gamma irradiation

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Authors: Reza Bazargan lari, Mohammad H. Fattahi

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Natural resources management including water resources requires reliable estimations of time variant environmental parameters. Small improvements in the estimation of environmental parameters would result in grate effects on managing decisions. Noise reduction using wavelet techniques is an effective approach for pre-processing of practical data sets. Predictability enhancement of the river flow time series are assessed using fractal approaches before and after applying wavelet based pre-processing. Time series correlation and persistency, the minimum sufficient length for training the predicting model and the maximum valid length of predictions were also investigated through a fractal assessment.

Keywords: wavelet, de-noising, predictability, time series fractal analysis, valid length, ANN

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Authors: Arash Sadeghi, Taimaz Larimian

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This study explores the intricate interplay between community-based social capital (CBSC) and neighbourhood dynamics in enhancing resilience of Iranian SMEs, particularly under the strain of international sanctions. Utilising fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA), we examine how different dimensions of CBSC—structural, relational, and cognitive—interact with neighbourhood socio-economic and built-environment characteristics to influence SME resilience. Findings reveal four configurations that contribute to the presence of resistance and five configurations associated with the adaptation outcome. Each configuration demonstrates a distinct combination of social capital elements, which vary according to the specific socio-economic and built-environmental characteristics of the neighbourhoods. The first configuration highlights the importance of structural social capital in deprived areas for building resistance, while the second emphasises the role of relational social capital in low-density, minimally deprived areas. Overall, cognitive social capital seems to be less effective in driving economic resilience compared to structural and relational types. This research contributes to the literature by providing a nuanced understanding of the synergistic effects of CBSC dimensions and neighbourhood characteristics on SME resilience. By adopting a configurational approach, we move beyond traditional methodologies, offering a comprehensive view of the complex dynamics of CBSC and neighbourhood characteristics and their impact on SME resilience in varying neighbourhoods.

Keywords: community-based social capital, fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA), place-based resilience, resistance

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Authors: Somaiyeh Dehghan, Mohammad Reza Kheirkhahan Haghighi

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The rapid growth of domains that have data with a large number of features, while the number of samples is limited has caused difficulty in constructing strong classifiers. To reduce the dimensionality of the feature space becomes an essential step in classification task. Random subspace method (or attribute bagging) is an ensemble classifier that consists of several classifiers that each base learner in ensemble has subset of features. In the present paper, we introduce Random Subspace Ensemble of CMAC neural network (RSE-CMAC), each of which has training with subset of features. Then we use this model for classification task. For evaluation performance of our model, we compare it with bagging algorithm on 36 UCI datasets. The results reveal that the new model has better performance.

Keywords: classification, random subspace, ensemble, CMAC neural network

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Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

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Accurate forecasting of project performance metrics is crucial for successfully managing and delivering urban road reconstruction projects. Traditional methods often rely on static baseline plans and fail to consider the dynamic nature of project progress and external factors. This research proposes a machine learning-based approach to forecast project performance metrics, such as cost variance and earned value, for each Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) category in an urban road reconstruction project. The proposed model utilizes time series forecasting techniques, including Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, to predict future performance based on historical data and project progress. The model also incorporates external factors, such as weather patterns and resource availability, as features to enhance the accuracy of forecasts. By applying the predictive power of machine learning, the performance forecasting model enables proactive identification of potential deviations from the baseline plan, which allows project managers to take timely corrective actions. The research aims to validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach using a case study of an urban road reconstruction project, comparing the model's forecasts with actual project performance data. The findings of this research contribute to the advancement of project management practices in the construction industry, offering a data-driven solution for improving project performance monitoring and control.

Keywords: project performance forecasting, machine learning, time series forecasting, cost variance, earned value management

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