Search results for: partially observable Markov decision processes

Authors: Nina Miklavčič, Urška Kugovnik, Natalia Galkina, Primož Ribarič, Rudi Vončina

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Today, the need for weather predictions is deeply rooted in the everyday life of people as well as it is in industry. The forecasts influence final decision-making processes in multiple areas, from agriculture and prevention of natural disasters to air traffic regulations and solutions on a national level for health, security, and economic problems. Namely, in Slovenia, alongside other existing forms of application, weather forecasts are adopted for the prognosis of electrical current transmission through powerlines. Meteorological parameters are one of the key factors which need to be considered in estimations of the reliable supply of electrical energy to consumers. And like for any other measured value, the knowledge about measurement uncertainty is also critical for the secure and reliable supply of energy. The estimation of measurement uncertainty grants us a more accurate interpretation of data, a better quality of the end results, and even a possibility of improvement of weather forecast models. In the article, we focused on the estimation of measurement uncertainty of the diagnostic microscale meteorological model CALMET. For the purposes of our research, we used a network of meteorological stations spread in the area of our interest, which enables a side-by-side comparison of measured meteorological values with the values calculated with the help of CALMET and the measurement uncertainty estimation as a final result.

Keywords: uncertancy, meteorological model, meteorological measurment, CALMET

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Authors: Chang Liu, Nuria Fiol, Isabel Villaescusa, Jordi Poch

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Over the last decades, biosorption has been an alternative to costly wastewaters treatment for metal removal. Most of the literature on metal biosorption was devoted to studying of single metal ions but nowadays studies on multi-components biosorption are booming. Hexavalent chromium is usually found in mixtures with divalent metal ions in industries wastewaters. However, studies on the simultaneous removal of Cr(VI) and divalent metals are hardly found and the cooperative or competitive mechanism governing each metal ions sorption is still unclear. In this work, simultaneous sorption of Cr(VI) and Cu(II) from their binary mixtures by using sweet potato vine (SPV) was investigated. Sweet potato is one of the four major grain crops in China. Each year about 2000 tons of SPV are generated as by-products. SPV could be a low-cost biosorbent for metal ions due to its rich in cellulose and lignin. In this work, the sorption of Cr(VI) and Cu(II) from their binary mixtures solutions was studied by using SPV sorbent. Equilibrium studies were carried out in binary mixtures in which Cr(VI) and Cu(II) concentration was both varied between 0.1 mM and 0.3 mM, Cr(VI) and Cu(II) single solutions were also prepared as comparison. All the experiments were performed at pH 3±0.05 under 30±2°C for 7 days to make sure sorption achieved equilibrium. Results showed that (i) chromium was partially (10.93%-42.04%) eliminated under studied conditions through reduction and sorption of hexavalent and trivalent forms. The presence of Cu(II) exerts a synergistic effect on the overall sorption process in all the cases of the 0.1-0.3 mM binary mixtures concentration range. (ii) Cr(VI) removal by SPV is favoured by the presence of Cu(II) in solution, because more protons needed for Cr(VI) reduction are available due to Cu(II)-proton competition; however sorption of the formed Cr(III) is unfavoured as a result of the competition between Cr(III) and Cu(II) for protons and sorbent active sites. (iii) Copper was partially (9.26%-13.91%) sorbed onto SPV under studied conditions. The presence of Cr(VI) in binary mixtures also exerts a synergistic effect on the Cu(II) removal in all the cases of the 0.1-0.3 mM binary mixtures concentration range. The results of the present work indicate that sweet potato vine can be successfully employed for the simultaneously removal of Cr(VI) and Cu(II) in binary mixtures, taking advantage of the synergistic effect provoked by one of the metal ion to each other, even though the acquisition of higher removal yields has to be further investigated. Acknowledgements—This work has been financially supported by Ministry of Human Resources and Social Security of PRC (Anhui15), Education Department of Anhui Province (KJ2016A270) and Anhui Normal University (2015rcpy33, 2014bsqdjj53).

Keywords: sweet potato vine, chromium reduction, divalent metal, synergistic sorption

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Authors: Mahdi Alshamasin, Riad Al-Kasasbeh, Nikolay Korenevskiy

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We apply mathematical models for the interaction of the internal and biologically active points of meridian structures. Amongst the diseases for which reflex diagnostics are effective are those of the stomach disease. It is shown that use of fuzzy logic decision-making yields good results for the prediction and early diagnosis of gastrointestinal tract diseases, depending on the reaction energy of biologically active points (acupuncture points). It is shown that good results for the prediction and early diagnosis of diseases from the reaction energy of biologically active points (acupuncture points) are obtained by using fuzzy logic decision-making.

Keywords: acupuncture points, fuzzy logic, diagnostically important points (DIP), confidence factors, membership functions, stomach diseases

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Authors: Roberta Martino, Viviana Ventre

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Intertemporal choices are choices under conditions of uncertainty in which the consequences are distributed over time. The Discounted Utility Model is the essential reference for describing the individual in the context of intertemporal choice. The model is based on the idea that the individual selects the alternative with the highest utility, which is calculated by multiplying the cardinal utility of the outcome, as if the reception were instantaneous, by the discount function that determines a decrease in the utility value according to how the actual reception of the outcome is far away from the moment the choice is made. Initially, the discount function was assumed to have an exponential trend, whose decrease over time is constant, in line with a profile of a rational investor described by classical economics. Instead, empirical evidence called for the formulation of alternative, hyperbolic models that better represented the actual actions of the investor. Attitudes that do not comply with the principles of classical rationality are termed anomalous, i.e., difficult to rationalize and describe through normative models. The development of behavioral finance, which describes investor behavior through cognitive psychology, has shown that deviations from rationality are due to the limited rationality condition of human beings. What this means is that when a choice is made in a very difficult and information-rich environment, the brain does a compromise job between the cognitive effort required and the selection of an alternative. Moreover, the evaluation and selection phase of the alternative, the collection and processing of information, are dynamics conditioned by systematic distortions of the decision-making process that are the behavioral biases involving the individual's emotional and cognitive system. In this paper we present an original decomposition of the discount function to investigate the psychological principles of hyperbolic discounting. It is possible to decompose the curve into two components: the first component is responsible for the smaller decrease in the outcome as time increases and is related to the individual's impatience; the second component relates to the change in the direction of the tangent vector to the curve and indicates how much the individual perceives the indeterminacy of the future indicating his or her aversion to uncertainty. This decomposition allows interesting conclusions to be drawn with respect to the concept of impatience and the emotional drives involved in decision-making. The contribution that neuroscience can make to decision theory and inter-temporal choice theory is vast as it would allow the description of the decision-making process as the relationship between the individual's emotional and cognitive factors. Neurofinance is a discipline that uses a multidisciplinary approach to investigate how the brain influences decision-making. Indeed, considering that the decision-making process is linked to the activity of the prefrontal cortex and amygdala, neurofinance can help determine the extent to which abnormal attitudes respect the principles of rationality.

Keywords: impatience, intertemporal choice, neurofinance, rationality, uncertainty

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Authors: Jonathan Turner, Julie Doyle, Laura O’Philbin, Dympna O’Sullivan

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People living with dementia should be at the centre of decision-making regarding goals for daily living. These goals include basic activities (dressing, hygiene, and mobility), advanced activities (finances, transportation, and shopping), and meaningful activities that promote well-being (pastimes and intellectual pursuits). However, there is limited involvement of people living with dementia in the design of technology to support their goals. A project is described that is co-designing intelligent computer-based support for, and with, people affected by dementia and their carers. The technology will support self-management, empower participation in shared decision-making with carers and help people living with dementia remain healthy and independent in their homes for longer. It includes information from the patient’s care plan, which documents medications, contacts, and the patient's wishes on end-of-life care. Importantly for this work, the plan can outline activities that should be maintained or worked towards, such as exercise or social contact. The authors discuss how to integrate care goal information from such a care plan with data collected from passive sensors in the patient’s home in order to deliver individualized planning and interventions for persons with dementia. A number of scientific challenges are addressed: First, to co-design with dementia patients and their carers computerized support for shared decision-making about their care while allowing the patient to share the care plan. Second, to develop a new and open monitoring framework with which to configure sensor technologies to collect data about whether goals and actions specified for a person in their care plan are being achieved. This is developed top-down by associating care quality types and metrics elicited from the co-design activities with types of data that can be collected within the home, from passive and active sensors, and from the patient’s feedback collected through a simple co-designed interface. These activities and data will be mapped to appropriate sensors and technological infrastructure with which to collect the data. Third, the application of machine learning models to analyze data collected via the sensing devices in order to investigate whether and to what extent activities outlined via the care plan are being achieved. The models will capture longitudinal data to track disease progression over time; as the disease progresses and captured data show that activities outlined in the care plan are not being achieved, the care plan may recommend alternative activities. Disease progression may also require care changes, and a data-driven approach can capture changes in a condition more quickly and allow care plans to evolve and be updated.

Keywords: care goals, decision-making, dementia, self-care, sensors

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Authors: Meera Tandan, Mohan Timilsina, Martin Cormican, Akke Vellinga

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Background: In general practice, many infections are treated empirically without microbiological confirmation. Understanding susceptibility of antimicrobials during empirical prescribing can be helpful to reduce inappropriate prescribing. This study aims to apply a prediction model using a decision tree approach to predict the antimicrobial resistance (AMR) of urinary tract infections (UTI) based on non-clinical features of patients over 65 years. Decision tree models are a novel idea to predict the outcome of AMR at an initial stage. Method: Data was extracted from the database of the microbiological laboratory of the University Hospitals Galway on all antimicrobial susceptibility testing (AST) of urine specimens from patients over the age of 65 from January 2011 to December 2014. The primary endpoint was resistance to common antimicrobials (Nitrofurantoin, trimethoprim, ciprofloxacin, co-amoxiclav and amoxicillin) used to treat UTI. A classification and regression tree (CART) model was generated with the outcome ‘resistant infection’. The importance of each predictor (the number of previous samples, age, gender, location (nursing home, hospital, community) and causative agent) on antimicrobial resistance was estimated. Sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive (NPV) and positive predictive (PPV) values were used to evaluate the performance of the model. Seventy-five percent (75%) of the data were used as a training set and validation of the model was performed with the remaining 25% of the dataset. Results: A total of 9805 UTI patients over 65 years had their urine sample submitted for AST at least once over the four years. E.coli, Klebsiella, Proteus species were the most commonly identified pathogens among the UTI patients without catheter whereas Sertia, Staphylococcus aureus; Enterobacter was common with the catheter. The validated CART model shows slight differences in the sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV in between the models with and without the causative organisms. The sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV for the model with non-clinical predictors was between 74% and 88% depending on the antimicrobial. Conclusion: The CART models developed using non-clinical predictors have good performance when predicting antimicrobial resistance. These models predict which antimicrobial may be the most appropriate based on non-clinical factors. Other CART models, prospective data collection and validation and an increasing number of non-clinical factors will improve model performance. The presented model provides an alternative approach to decision making on antimicrobial prescribing for UTIs in older patients.

Keywords: antimicrobial resistance, urinary tract infection, prediction, decision tree

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Authors: Khaled Ali Soltan

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Iran can be considered a triangle that is affected by 3 forces: the government, the elite, and the people. Over the last 100 years, these three forces have been at odds with each other. This lack of coordination and sometimes antagonism among these three forces has led to lawlessness in Iran (both the government and the people have entered the cycle of lawlessness) and the spread of destructive processes in the country and the destruction of resources, both natural and human resources. The direct and negative impact of this issue on people's lives as well as the environment highlights the importance of this article. This article descriptively deals with the issue and suggests solutions and examines possible problems and obstacles. There seems to be a way to establish a connection’ closeness and coordination among these three forces and put them on the path of development. ELITE RAIN is a scientific-popular process that can create coordination and cooperation between these forces, prevent destructive processes in the country and put it on the path of sustainable development and a better life. This solution is a more advanced model of brainstorming technique introduced by Alex Osborn in 1953. Given that people have tried different types of protests to improve the status quo, such as the change of government in 1979 which led to the establishment of the theocracy, participating in elections that resulted in more frustration and corruption due to the lack of real parties, and sporadic street protests that resulted in nothing more than repression, it seems that this solution can be successful.

Keywords: corruption, destruction of resources, elite rain, Iran, legal complaints, sustainable development, the elite

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Authors: Maryam Kalkatechi

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Nowadays, parametric design, scientific analysis, and digital fabrication are dominant. Many architectural practices are increasingly seeking to incorporate advanced digital software and fabrication in their projects. Proposing an erudite design process that combines digital and practical aspects in a strong frame within the method was resulted from the dissertation research. The digital aspects are the progressive advancements in algorithm design and simulation software. These aspects have assisted the firms to develop more holistic concepts at the early stage and maintain collaboration among disciplines during the design process. The erudite design process enhances the current design processes by encouraging the designer to implement the construction and architecture knowledge within the algorithm to make successful design processes. The erudite design process also involves the ongoing improvements of applying the new method of 3D printing in construction. This is achieved through the ‘data-sketches’. The term ‘data-sketch’ was developed by the author in the dissertation that was recently completed. It accommodates the decisions of the architect on the algorithm. This paper introduces the erudite design process and its components. It will summarize the application of this process in development of the ‘3D printed construction unit’. This paper contributes to overlaying the academic and practice with advanced technology by presenting a design process that transfers the dominance of tool to the learned architect and encourages innovation in design processes.

Keywords: erudite, data-sketch, algorithm design in architecture, design process

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Authors: Mingwei Yi, Liujie Guo, Zongjun Pan, Xiang Lin, Xiaoming Yi

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With the rapid expansion of road construction mileage in China, the scale of road maintenance needs has concurrently escalated. As the service life of roads extends, the design of pavement repair and maintenance emerges as a crucial component in preserving the excellent performance of the pavement. The remaining service life of asphalt pavement structure is a vital parameter in the lifecycle maintenance design of asphalt pavements. Based on an analysis of pavement structural integrity, this study introduces a characterization and assessment of the remaining life of existing asphalt pavement structures. It proposes indicators such as the transverse crack spacing and the length of longitudinal cracks. The transverse crack spacing decreases with an increase in maintenance intervals and with the extended use of semi-rigid base layer structures, although this trend becomes less pronounced after maintenance intervals exceed 4 years. The length of longitudinal cracks increases with longer maintenance intervals, but this trend weakens after five years. This system can support the enhancement of standardization and scientific design in highway maintenance decision-making processes.

Keywords: structural integrity, highways, pavement evaluation, asphalt concrete pavement

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Authors: Sarah Ekuwo Okende, Armand Lokolo

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Gradually, the recognition of wild bees in processes affecting ecosystems and as major components of biodiversity has led to their protection as well as their areas in Kinshasa. And despite their decisive role in the well-being of men, the general public and decision-makers know nothing of the consequences of the loss of these, which are nevertheless of considerable magnitude. On this, they provide the pollination of sexual plants, and they also provide us with a number of goods that have a direct economic value, such as food, medicines, etc. And yet today, more than half of these wild bee species are threatened in Kinshasa. The causes of this phenomenon are largely unknown to the general public in the Kinshasa region. The objective of this study is to find the causes leading to the disappearance of wild bee species in Kinshasa. Also, this research contributes to current knowledge of the biodiversity of wild bees in the Kinshasa region and helps the authorities to develop a good policy for the conservation or safeguarding of this biodiversity, which plays a key role in maintaining the integrity of our ecosystems. We carried out field surveys using interview sheets in the forest areas of Kinshasa where wild bees populated them. To achieve this, an interview sheet was made, and it included questions on the causes of the disappearance of wild bees and the destruction of forest areas. The interviews were carried out with the natives of these forest areas. The results of this study show us that the destruction of habitats or natural areas and the use of pesticides are the causes of the disappearance of these wild bees.

Keywords: wild bees, pollinisation, forest, biodiversity, habitats, ecosystem, destruction, pesticide

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Authors: Muhammad Asim

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Background: Less than half of women in South Asia (SA) use any modern contraceptive method which leads to a huge burden of unintended pregnancies, unsafe abortions, maternal deaths, and socioeconomic loss. Women empowerment plays a pivotal role in improving various health seeking behaviours, including contraceptive use. The objective of this study to explore the association between women's empowerment and modern contraceptive, among rich and poor segment of population in SA. Methods: We used the most recent, large-scale, demographic health survey data of five South Asian countries, namely Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, and Nepal. The outcome variable was the current use of modern contraceptive methods. The main exposure variable was a combination (interaction) of socio-economic status (SES) and women’s level of empowerment (low, medium, and high), where SES was bifurcated into poor and rich; and women empowerment was divided into three categories: decision making, attitude to violence and social independence. Moreover, overall women empowerment indicator was also created by using three dimensions of women empowerment. We applied both descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression techniques for data analyses. Results: Most of the women possessed ‘medium’ level of empowerment across South Asian Countries. The lowest attitude to violence empowerment was found in Afghanistan, and the lowest social independence empowerment was observed in Bangladesh across SA. However, Pakistani women have the lowest decision-making empowerment in the region. The lowest modern contraceptive use (22.1%) was found in Afghanistan and the highest (53.2%) in Bangladesh. The multivariate results depict that the overall measure of women empowerment does not affect modern contraceptive use among poor and rich women in most of South Asian countries. However, the decision-making empowerment plays a significant role among both poor and rich women to use modern contraceptive methods across South Asian countries. Conclusions: The effect of women’s empowerment on modern contraceptive use is not consistent across countries, and among poor and rich segment of population. Of the three dimensions of women’s empowerment, the autonomy of decision making in household affairs emerged as a stronger determinant of mCPR as compared with social independence and attitude towards violence against women.

Keywords: women empowerment, contraceptive use, South Asia, women autonomy

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Authors: F.Sadoughi, A. Sarsarshahi, L, Eerfannia, S.M.A. Khatami

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Hospital information systems with lots of ability would lead to health care quality improvement. Evaluation of this system has done according different method and criteria. The main goal of present study is to prioritize the most important factors which are influence these systems evaluation. At the first step, according relevant literature, three main factor and 29 subfactors extracted. Then, study framework was designed. Based on analytical hierarchical process (AHP), 28 paired comparisons with Saaty range, in a questionnaire format obtained. Questionnaires were filled by 10 experts in health information management and medical informatics field. Human factors with weight of 0.55 were ranked as the most important. Organization (0.25) and technology (0.14) were in next place. It seems MADM methods such as AHP have enough potential to use in health research and provide positive opportunities for health domain decision makers.

Keywords: Analytical hierarchy process, Multiple criteria decision-making (MCDM), Hospital information system, Evaluation factors

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Authors: Muhammad Asim

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Background: Less than half of women in South Asia (SA) use any modern contraceptive method which leads to a huge burden of unintended pregnancies, unsafe abortions, maternal deaths, and socioeconomic loss. Women empowerment plays a pivotal role in improving various health seeking behaviours, including contraceptive use. The objective of this study to explore the association between women's empowerment and modern contraceptive, among rich and poor segment of population in SA. Methods: We used the most recent, large-scale, demographic health survey data of five South Asian countries, namely Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bangladesh, India, and Nepal. The outcome variable was the current use of modern contraceptive methods. The main exposure variable was a combination (interaction) of socio-economic status (SES) and women’s level of empowerment (low, medium, and high), where SES was bifurcated into poor and rich; and women empowerment was divided into three categories: decision making, attitude to violence and social independence. Moreover, overall women empowerment indicator was also created by using three dimensions of women empowerment. We applied both descriptive statistics and multivariable logistic regression techniques for data analyses. Results: Most of the women possessed ‘medium’ level of empowerment across South Asian Countries. The lowest attitude to violence empowerment was found in Afghanistan, and the lowest social independence empowerment was observed in Bangladesh across SA. However, Pakistani women have the lowest decision-making empowerment in the region. The lowest modern contraceptive use (22.1%) was found in Afghanistan and the highest (53.2%) in Bangladesh. The multivariate results depict that the overall measure of women empowerment does not affect modern contraceptive use among poor and rich women in most of South Asian countries. However, the decision-making empowerment plays a significant role among both poor and rich women to use modern contraceptive methods across South Asian countries. Conclusions: The effect of women’s empowerment on modern contraceptive use is not consistent across countries, and among poor and rich segment of population. Of the three dimensions of women’s empowerment, the autonomy of decision making in household affairs emerged as a stronger determinant of mCPR as compared with social independence and attitude towards violence against women.

Keywords: women empowerment, modern contraceptive use, South Asia, women autonomy

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Authors: Ana Paula Cavalcanti Furtado, Silvio Meira

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Context: The quality of a software product can be directly influenced by the quality of its development process. Therefore, immature or ad-hoc test processes are means that are unsuited for introducing systematic test automation, and should not be used to support improving the quality of software. Objective: In order to conduct this research, the benefits and limitations of and gaps in automating software testing had to be assessed in order to identify the best practices and to propose a strategy for systematically introducing test automation into software development processes. Method: To conduct this research, an exploratory bibliographical survey was undertaken so as to underpin the search by theory and the recent literature. After defining the proposal, two case studies were conducted so as to analyze the proposal in a real-world environment. In addition, the proposal was also assessed through a focus group with specialists in the field. Results: The proposal of a Framework for Automating Software Testing (FAST), which is a theoretical framework consisting of a hierarchical structure to introduce test automation. Conclusion: The findings of this research showed that the absence of systematic processes is one of the factors that hinder the introduction of test automation. Based on the results of the case studies, FAST can be considered as a satisfactory alternative that lies within the scope of introducing and maintaining test automation in software development.

Keywords: software process improvement, software quality, software testing, test automation

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Authors: Esraa Alhadad

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Recently, there has been considerable debate surrounding the definition, conservation, and management of heritage. Over the past few years, there has been a growing call for the inclusion of local communities in heritage management. However, the perspectives on involvement, especially concerning key stakeholders like community members, often diverge significantly. While the theoretical foundation for community involvement is reasonably established, the application of this approach in heritage management has been sluggish. Achieving a balance to fulfill the diverse goals of stakeholders in any involvement project proves challenging in practice. Consequently, there is a dearth of empirical studies exploring the practical implications of effective tools in heritage management, and limited indication exists to persuade current authorities, such as governmental organizations, to share their influence with local community members. This research project delves into community involvement within heritage management as a potent means of constructing a robust management framework. Its objective is to assess both the extent and caliber of involvement within the management of heritage sites overall, utilizing a cultural mapping-centered methodology. The findings of this study underscore the significance of engaging the local community in both heritage management and planning endeavors. Ultimately, this investigation furnishes crucial empirical evidence and extrapolates valuable theoretical and practical insights that advance understanding of cultural mapping in pivotal areas, including the catalysts for involvement and collaborative decision-making processes.

Keywords: community involvement, heritage management, cultural mapping, stakeholder mangement

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Authors: Sead A. Bakheet, Salah M. Elkoum, Asharaf A. Almaghribi

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Disturbance defined as activity that malfunction, intrusion, or interruption. We have to look around for the source of the disturbance affecting the inputs and outputs of engineering projects, take the necessary actions to control them. In this paper we will present and discuss a production system consisting of three elements, inputs, the production process and outputs. The production process which we chose is the production of large diameter pre-stressed concrete cylinder pipes (out puts), in reality, the outputs are the starting points of the operation (laying the concrete pipes for transporting drinkable water). The main objective also to address the controlling methods of the natural resources and raw materials (basic inputs), study the disturbances affecting them as well as the output quality. The importance of making the right decision, which effect the final product quality will be summarized. Finally, we will address the proposals regarding the managing of secure water supply to the customers.

Keywords: disturbances, management, inputs, outputs, decision

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Authors: Roberta Martino, Viviana Ventre

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Every day we face choices whose consequences are deferred in time. These types of choices are the intertemporal choices and play an important role in the social, economic, and financial world. The Discounted Utility Model is the mathematical model of reference to calculate the utility of intertemporal prospects. The discount rate is the main element of the model as it describes how the individual perceives the indeterminacy of subsequent periods. Empirical evidence has shown a discrepancy between the behavior expected from the predictions of the model and the effective choices made from the decision makers. In particular, the term temporal inconsistency indicates those choices that do not remain optimal with the passage of time. This phenomenon has been described with hyperbolic models of the discount rate which, unlike the linear or exponential nature assumed by the discounted utility model, is not constant over time. This paper explores the problem of inconsistency by tracing the decision-making process through the concept of impatience. The degree of impatience and the degree of decrease of impatience are two parameters that allow to quantify the weight of emotional factors and cognitive limitations during the evaluation and selection of alternatives. In fact, although the theory assumes perfectly rational decision makers, behavioral finance and cognitive psychology have made it possible to understand that distortions in the decision-making process and emotional influence have an inevitable impact on the decision-making process. The degree to which impatience is diminished is the focus of the first part of the study. By comparing consistent and inconsistent preferences over time, it was possible to verify that some anomalies in the discounted utility model are a result of the combination of cognitive bias and emotional factors. In particular: the delay effect and the interval effect are compared through the concept of misperception of time; starting from psychological considerations, a criterion is proposed to identify the causes of the magnitude effect that considers the differences in outcomes rather than their ratio; the sign effect is analyzed by integrating in the evaluation of prospects with negative outcomes the psychological aspects of loss aversion provided by Prospect Theory. An experiment implemented confirms three findings: the greatest variation in the degree of decrease in impatience corresponds to shorter intervals close to the present; the greatest variation in the degree of impatience occurs for outcomes of lower magnitude; the variation in the degree of impatience is greatest for negative outcomes. The experimental phase was implemented with the construction of the hyperbolic factor through the administration of questionnaires constructed for each anomaly. This work formalizes the underlying causes of the discrepancy between the discounted utility model and the empirical evidence of preference reversal.

Keywords: decreasing impatience, discount utility model, hyperbolic discount, hyperbolic factor, impatience

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Authors: Chaitanya Sharma, Vikas Upadhyay, A. Tripathi

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Friction stir welding and tungsten inert gas welding techniques were employed to weld armor grade aluminum alloy to investigate the effect of welding processes on tensile behavior of weld joints. Tensile tests, Vicker microhardness tests and optical microscopy were performed on developed weld joints and base metal. Welding process influenced tensile behavior and microstructure of weld joints. Friction stir welded joints showed tensile behavior better than tungsten inert gas weld joints.

Keywords: friction stir welding, microstructure, tensile properties, fracture locations

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Authors: Clarice Zimbili Zondi

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This study investigates the effect of restorative justice programmes offered to offenders in prison environment (Correctional Centres) during their rehabilitation. The study looks specifically to programmes offered by a Non-Profit Organisation (NPO), Phoenix Zululand (PZ) in twelve (12) different prisons in Zululand, South Africa. Document analysis, interviews and participant observation methods were used to test whether the work done by Phoenix Zululand is in line with the remarks made on restorative justice as encapsulated in the White Paper on Corrections 2005 in South Africa. Also tested was whether a better understanding of restorative justice programmes assists in coming up with better strategies to change the behaviour of offenders. The study findings discovered that the work that is done by PZ is not in line with the remarks made in the White Paper on Corrections. Also the importance of a full comprehension of what one is doing in order to be effective in rehabilitation. However, rehabilitation that is aimed at only changing the decision-making processes of offenders not to reoffend, does not serve as a total rehabilitation programme. Rehabilitation is only successful if ex-offenders, whilst still in prison, have developed market-related skills and become employed or self-employed. Restorative Justice Programmes offered by PZ, although they play a critical role, appears to be lacking in equipping offenders with skills for effective reintegration into society and, subsequently, self-reliance.

Keywords: offender, rehabilitation, restorative justice, prison

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Authors: Ana-Marija Stjepić, Dalia Suša Vugec

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Today, digital transformation is one of the leading topics that occupy the attention of scientific circles and business experts. Organizational success is most often reflected through the successful managing of business processes. Given the growing market for digital innovations and its ever-increasing impact on business, organizations need to be prepared for organizational changes that come with the digital era. In order to maintain their competitive advantage in the global market, organizations must adapt their processes to new digitalization conditions. The main goal of this study is to point out the link between the digital transformation and the business process management concept. Therefore, in order to contribute to the scientific field that explores the potential relation between business process management concept and digital transformation, a literature review has been conducted. Papers have been searched within the Business Process Management Journal by keywords related to the term digital transformation. Selected papers have been analyzed according to the topic, type of publication, year of publication, keywords, etc. The results reveal a growing number of papers published on the topic of digital transformation to the Business Process Management Journal, but the lack of case studies. This paper contributes to the extension of academic literature in this important, yet insufficiently researched, scientific field that creates the bond between two strong concepts of digital transformation and business process management.

Keywords: business process management, digital transformation, digitalization, process change

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Authors: Naomi Mutea, Jossete Jones

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The project aimed at exploring the views and perceptions of nurse leaders and educators regarding use of International Classification for Nursing Practice (ICNP) in an informal approach which involved face to face discussions, after which a decision would be made on whether to proceed and propose introduction of ICNP project in Kenya as a pilot project which would mean all nurses would use a standard approach to reporting and documenting nursing care. In addition the project was to determine the best approaches/methods that can be used to introduce ICNP in the Kenyan nursing education and practice environment using the findings of the pilot project. Further four cardex reports were reviewed to establish if nurses on the bedside used a standardized language in documenting and reporting care processes. The cardex reports showed that nurses do not use ICNP or any other standardized language. The results of the discussions revealed that this would be a challenge due to several challenges experienced in conducting nursing research in resource-limited environments. The following questions were asked during the informal discussions with the educators/leaders: •What is currently being taught in terms of standardized nursing language? •Are you familiar with ICNP? •Do you view it advantageous to have a standardized language? •What is the greatest need at the moment in terms of curriculum development for BSN regarding use of standardized nursing language? •If you had a wish to change something in your curriculum, what would that be?

Keywords: nursing, standardized language, ICNP, resource-limited care environments

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Authors: Musa D. Aliyu, Ouahid Harireche, Colin D. Hills

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The incapability of supercritical C02 to transport and dissolve mineral species from the geothermal reservoir to the fracture apertures and other important parameters in heat mining makes it an attractive substance for Heat extraction from hot dry rock. In other words, the thermodynamic efficiency of hot dry rock (HDR) reservoirs also increases if supercritical C02 is circulated at excess temperatures of 3740C without the drawbacks connected with silica dissolution. Studies have shown that circulation of supercritical C02 in homogenous geothermal reservoirs is quite encouraging; in comparison to that of the water. This paper aims at investigating the aforementioned processes in the case of the heterogeneous geothermal reservoir located at the Soultz site (France). The MultiPhysics finite element package COMSOL with an interface of coupling different processes encountered in the geothermal reservoir stimulation is used. A fully coupled numerical model is developed to study the thermal and hydraulic processes in order to predict the long-term operation of the basic reservoir parameters that give optimum energy production. The results reveal that the temperature of the SCC02 at the production outlet is higher than that of water in long-term stimulation; as the temperature is an essential ingredient in rating the energy production. It is also observed that the mass flow rate of the SCC02 is far more favourable compared to that of water.

Keywords: FEM, HDR, heterogeneous reservoir, stimulation, supercritical C02

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Authors: Efrizal, Ferdiansyah, Noorlailie Soewarno, Bambang Tjahjadi

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Tax revenue plays an important role in the State Budget of the Government of Indonesia (GOI). The GOI keeps raising tax revenue portion of the Budget from year to year. The low tax ratio of 11 percent in Indonesia shows a big opportunity to collect taxes in the future. The Directorate General of Taxation (DGT) is the institution mandated by the Law to collect tax revenue. This is a case study using quantitative and qualitative approaches. This study introduces contingent factors of taxpayers’ compliance as the mediating variable and internal business process as the independent variable. This study aims to empirically test the contingency theory, especially the mediating effect of taxpayers’ compliance on internal business process-tax revenue relationship. Internal business processes of the DGT include servicing, counseling, expanding, supervising, inspecting, and enforcing. The secondary data of 31 regional offices representing 293 tax offices in Indonesia was collected and analyzed using Partial Least Square. The result showed the following: (1) internal business process affected tax revenue; (2) taxpayers’ compliance did not mediate internal business processes - tax revenue relationship, and (3) taxpayers’ compliance affected tax revenue. In-depth interviews revealed that the DGT needs to make more innovations in business processes in the future.

Keywords: innovations, internal business process, taxpayers’ compliance, tax revenue

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Authors: Johannes Atug, Andreas Radke, Mitchell Tseng, Gunther Reinhart

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In modern supply chains, large numbers of SKU (Stock-Keeping-Unit) need to be timely managed, and any delays in noticing disruptions of items often limit the ability to defer the impact on customer order fulfillment. However, in supply chains of IoT-connected enterprises, the ERP (Enterprise-Resource-Planning), the MES (Manufacturing-Execution-System) and the SCADA (Supervisory-Control-and-Data-Acquisition) systems generate large amounts of data, which generally glean much earlier notice of deviations in the business process steps. That is, analyzing these streams of data with process mining techniques allows the monitoring of the supply chain business processes and thus identification of items that deviate from the standard order fulfillment process. In this paper, a framework to enable event-based SCM (Supply-Chain-Management) processes including an overview of core enabling technologies are presented, which is based on the RAMI (Reference-Architecture-Model for Industrie 4.0) architecture. The application of this framework in the industry is presented, and implications for SCM in industry 4.0 and further research are outlined.

Keywords: cyber-physical production systems, event-based monitoring, supply chain management, RAMI (Reference-Architecture-Model for Industrie 4.0)

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Authors: Binita Shah, Seema Unnikrishnan

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In the recent time, an increasing interest in the analysis and efforts to reduce the environmental impacts generated by man-made activities has been seen widely being discussed and implemented by the society. The industrial processes are expressing their concern and showing keen interest in redesigning and amending the operation process leading to better environmental performance by upgrading technologies and adjusting the financial inputs. There are various tools available for the assessment of process and production of goods on the environment. Most methods look at a particular impact on the ecosystem. Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) is one of the most widely accepted and scientifically founded methodologies to assess the overall environmental impacts of products and processes. This paper looks at the tools used in India for environmental impact assessment.

Keywords: life cycle assessment, ecological footprint, measuring sustainability, India

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Authors: Mark Jason E. Arca, Jay Vee R. Linatoc, Rex Francis N. Lupango, Michael Joe A. Ramirez

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Participation promises an avenue for citizens to take part in governance, but it does not necessarily mean effective participation. The proper integration of participants in the decision-making process should be properly addressed to ensure effectiveness. This study explores the integration of the participants in the decision-making process to reveal the level of participation in the Solid Waste Management audit done by the Citizen Participatory Audit (CPA), a program under the supervision of the Commission on Audit. Specifically, this study will use the experience of participation to identify emerging themes that will help reveal the level of participation through the integrated ladder of participation. The researchers used key informant interviews to gather necessary data from the actors of the program. The findings revealed that the level of participation present in the CPA is at the Placation level, a level below the program’s targeted level of participation. The study also allowed the researchers to reveal facilitating factors in the program that contributed to a better understanding of the practice of participation.

Keywords: citizen participation, culture of participation, ladder of participation, level of participation

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Authors: Sudipt Agarwal, Siddharth Verma, S. M. Iqbal, Hitik Kalra

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Natural gas as a fuel has created wonders, but on the contrary, the ill-effects of methane have been a great worry for professionals. The largest source of methane emission is the oil and gas industry among all industries. Methane depletes groundwater and being a greenhouse gas has devastating effects on the atmosphere too. Methane remains for a decade or two in the atmosphere and later breaks into carbon dioxide and thus damages it immensely, as it warms up the atmosphere 72 times more than carbon dioxide in those two decades and keeps on harming after breaking into carbon dioxide afterward. The property of a fluid to adhere to the surface of a solid, better known as adsorption, can be a great boon to minimize the hindrance caused by methane. Adsorption of methane during upstream processes can save the groundwater and atmospheric depletion around the site which can be hugely lucrative to earn profits which are reduced due to environmental degradation leading to project cancellation. The paper would deal with reasons why casing and cementing are not able to prevent leakage and would suggest methods to adsorb methane during upstream processes with mathematical explanation using volumetric analysis of adsorption of methane on the surface of activated carbon doped with copper oxides (which increases the absorption by 54%). The paper would explain in detail (through a cost estimation) how the proposed idea can be hugely beneficial not only to environment but also to the profits earned.

Keywords: adsorption, casing, cementing, cost estimation, volumetric analysis

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Authors: Giuseppe Timperio, Robert De Souza

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The combination of factors such as temperamental climate change, rampant urbanization of risk exposed areas, political and social instabilities, is posing an alarming base for the further growth of number and magnitude of humanitarian crises worldwide. Given the unique features of humanitarian supply chain such as unpredictability of demand in space, time, and geography, spike in the number of requests for relief items in the first days after the calamity, uncertain state of logistics infrastructures, large volumes of unsolicited low-priority items, a proactive approach towards design of disaster response operations is needed to achieve high agility in mobilization of emergency supplies in the immediate aftermath of the event. This paper is an attempt in that direction, and it provides decision makers with crucial strategic insights for a more effective network design for disaster response. Decision sciences and ICT are integrated to analyse the robustness and resilience of a prepositioned network of emergency strategic stockpiles for a real-life case about Indonesia, one of the most vulnerable countries in Asia-Pacific, with the model being built upon a rich set of quantitative data. At this aim, a network optimization approach was implemented, with several what-if scenarios being accurately developed and tested. Findings of this study are able to support decision makers facing challenges related with disaster relief chains resilience, particularly about optimal configuration of supply chain facilities and optimal flows across the nodes, while considering the network structure from an end-to-end in-country distribution perspective.

Keywords: disaster preparedness, humanitarian logistics, network optimization, resilience

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Authors: M. I. Abdelhamid, A. O. Ghallab, R. S. Ettouney, M. A. El-Rifai

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An optimization scheme based on COM server is suggested for communication between Genetic Algorithm (GA) toolbox of MATLAB and Aspen HYSYS. The structure and details of the proposed framework are discussed. The power of the developed scheme is illustrated by its application to the optimization of a recently developed natural gas liquefaction process in which Aspen HYSYS was used for minimization of the power consumption by optimizing the values of five operating variables. In this work, optimization by coupling between the GA in MATLAB and Aspen HYSYS model of the same process using the same five decision variables enabled improvements in power consumption by 3.3%, when 77% of the natural gas feed is liquefied. Also on inclusion of the flow rates of both nitrogen and carbon dioxide refrigerants as two additional decision variables, the power consumption decreased by 6.5% for a 78% liquefaction of the natural gas feed.

Keywords: stranded gas liquefaction, genetic algorithm, COM server, single nitrogen expansion, carbon dioxide pre-cooling

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Authors: T. Penkova, A. Korobko, V. Nicheporchuk, L. Nozhenkova, A. Metus

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This paper presents an approach of on-line control of the state of technosphere and environment objects based on the integration of Data Warehouse, OLAP and Expert systems technologies. It looks at the structure and content of data warehouse that provides consolidation and storage of monitoring data. There is a description of OLAP-models that provide a multidimensional analysis of monitoring data and dynamic analysis of principal parameters of controlled objects. The authors suggest some criteria of emergency risk assessment using expert knowledge about danger levels. It is demonstrated now some of the proposed solutions could be adopted in territorial decision making support systems. Operational control allows authorities to detect threat, prevent natural and anthropogenic emergencies and ensure a comprehensive safety of territory.

Keywords: decision making support systems, emergency risk assessment, natural and anthropogenic safety, on-line control, territory

Procedia PDF Downloads 394