Search results for: informative theoretic similarity metrics
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 1467

Search results for: informative theoretic similarity metrics

87 Citation Analysis of New Zealand Court Decisions

Authors: Tobias Milz, L. Macpherson, Varvara Vetrova

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The law is a fundamental pillar of human societies as it shapes, controls and governs how humans conduct business, behave and interact with each other. Recent advances in computer-assisted technologies such as NLP, data science and AI are creating opportunities to support the practice, research and study of this pervasive domain. It is therefore not surprising that there has been an increase in investments into supporting technologies for the legal industry (also known as “legal tech” or “law tech”) over the last decade. A sub-discipline of particular appeal is concerned with assisted legal research. Supporting law researchers and practitioners to retrieve information from the vast amount of ever-growing legal documentation is of natural interest to the legal research community. One tool that has been in use for this purpose since the early nineteenth century is legal citation indexing. Among other use cases, they provided an effective means to discover new precedent cases. Nowadays, computer-assisted network analysis tools can allow for new and more efficient ways to reveal the “hidden” information that is conveyed through citation behavior. Unfortunately, access to openly available legal data is still lacking in New Zealand and access to such networks is only commercially available via providers such as LexisNexis. Consequently, there is a need to create, analyze and provide a legal citation network with sufficient data to support legal research tasks. This paper describes the development and analysis of a legal citation Network for New Zealand containing over 300.000 decisions from 125 different courts of all areas of law and jurisdiction. Using python, the authors assembled web crawlers, scrapers and an OCR pipeline to collect and convert court decisions from openly available sources such as NZLII into uniform and machine-readable text. This facilitated the use of regular expressions to identify references to other court decisions from within the decision text. The data was then imported into a graph-based database (Neo4j) with the courts and their respective cases represented as nodes and the extracted citations as links. Furthermore, additional links between courts of connected cases were added to indicate an indirect citation between the courts. Neo4j, as a graph-based database, allows efficient querying and use of network algorithms such as PageRank to reveal the most influential/most cited courts and court decisions over time. This paper shows that the in-degree distribution of the New Zealand legal citation network resembles a power-law distribution, which indicates a possible scale-free behavior of the network. This is in line with findings of the respective citation networks of the U.S. Supreme Court, Austria and Germany. The authors of this paper provide the database as an openly available data source to support further legal research. The decision texts can be exported from the database to be used for NLP-related legal research, while the network can be used for in-depth analysis. For example, users of the database can specify the network algorithms and metrics to only include specific courts to filter the results to the area of law of interest.

Keywords: case citation network, citation analysis, network analysis, Neo4j

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86 The Conflict of Grammaticality and Meaningfulness of the Corrupt Words: A Cross-lingual Sociolinguistic Study

Authors: Jayashree Aanand, Gajjam

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The grammatical tradition in Sanskrit literature emphasizes the importance of the correct use of Sanskrit words or linguistic units (sādhu śabda) that brings the meritorious values, denying the attribution of the same religious merit to the incorrect use of Sanskrit words (asādhu śabda) or the vernacular or corrupt forms (apa-śabda or apabhraṁśa), even though they may help in communication. The current research, the culmination of the doctoral research on sentence definition, studies the difference among the comprehension of both correct and incorrect word forms in Sanskrit and Marathi languages in India. Based on the total of 19 experiments (both web-based and classroom-controlled) on approximately 900 Indian readers, it is found that while the incorrect forms in Sanskrit are comprehended with lesser accuracy than the correct word forms, no such difference can be seen for the Marathi language. It is interpreted that the incorrect word forms in the native language or in the language which is spoken daily (such as Marathi) will pose a lesser cognitive load as compared to the language that is not spoken on a daily basis but only used for reading (such as Sanskrit). The theoretical base for the research problem is as follows: among the three main schools of Language Science in ancient India, the Vaiyākaraṇas (Grammarians) hold that the corrupt word forms do have their own expressive power since they convey meaning, while as the Mimāṁsakas (the Exegesists) and the Naiyāyikas (the Logicians) believe that the corrupt forms can only convey the meaning indirectly, by recalling their association and similarity with the correct forms. The grammarians argue that the vernaculars that are born of the speaker’s inability to speak proper Sanskrit are regarded as degenerate versions or fallen forms of the ‘divine’ Sanskrit language and speakers who could not use proper Sanskrit or the standard language were considered as Śiṣṭa (‘elite’). The different ideas of different schools strictly adhere to their textual dispositions. For the last few years, sociolinguists have agreed that no variety of language is inherently better than any other; they are all the same as long as they serve the need of people that use them. Although the standard form of a language may offer the speakers some advantages, the non-standard variety is considered the most natural style of speaking. This is visible in the results. If the incorrect word forms incur the recall of the correct word forms in the reader as the theory suggests, it would have added one extra step in the process of sentential cognition leading to more cognitive load and less accuracy. This has not been the case for the Marathi language. Although speaking and listening to the vernaculars is the common practice and reading the vernacular is not, Marathi readers have readily and accurately comprehended the incorrect word forms in the sentences, as against the Sanskrit readers. The primary reason being Sanskrit is spoken and also read in the standard form only and the vernacular forms in Sanskrit are not found in the conversational data.

Keywords: experimental sociolinguistics, grammaticality and meaningfulness, Marathi, Sanskrit

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85 The Development of Local-Global Perceptual Bias across Cultures: Examining the Effects of Gender, Education, and Urbanisation

Authors: Helen J. Spray, Karina J. Linnell

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Local-global bias in adulthood is strongly dependent on environmental factors and a global bias is not the universal characteristic of adult perception it was once thought to be: whilst Western adults typically demonstrate a global bias, Namibian adults living in traditional villages possess a strong local bias. Furthermore, environmental effects on local-global bias have been shown to be highly gender-specific; whereas urbanisation promoted a global bias in urbanised Namibian women but not men, education promoted a global bias in urbanised Namibian men but not women. Adult populations, however, provide only a snapshot of the gene-environment interactions which shape perceptual bias. Yet, to date, there has been little work on the development of local-global bias across environmental settings. In the current study, local-global bias was assessed using a similarity-matching task with Navon figures in children aged between 4 and 15 years from across three populations: traditional Namibians, urban Namibians, and urban British. For the two Namibian groups, measures of urbanisation and education were obtained. Data were subjected to both between-group and within-group analyses. Between-group analyses compared developmental trajectories across population and gender. These analyses revealed a global bias from even as early as 4 in the British sample, and showed that the developmental onset of a global bias is not fixed. Urbanised Namibian children ultimately developed a global bias that was indistinguishable from British children; however, a global bias did not emerge until much later in development. For all populations, the greatest developmental effects were observed directly following the onset of formal education. No overall gender effects were observed; however, there was a significant gender by age interaction which was difficult to reconcile with existing biological-level accounts of gender differences in the development of local-global bias. Within-group analyses compared the effects of urbanisation and education on local-global bias for traditional and urban Namibian boys and girls separately. For both traditional and urban boys, education mediated all effects of age and urbanisation; however, this was not the case for girls. Traditional Namibian girls retained a local bias regardless of age, education, or urbanisation, and in urbanised girls, the development of a global bias was not attributable to any one factor specifically. These results are broadly consistent with aforementioned findings that education promoted a global bias in urbanised Namibian men but not women. The development of local-global bias does not follow a fixed trajectory but is subject to environmental control. Understanding how variability in the development of local-global bias might arise, particularly in the context of gender, may have far-reaching implications. For example, a number of educationally important cognitive functions (e.g., spatial ability) are known to show consistent gender differences in childhood and local-global bias may mediate some of these effects. With education becoming an increasingly prevalent force across much of the developing world it will be important to understand the processes that underpin its effects and their implications.

Keywords: cross-cultural, development, education, gender, local-global bias, perception, urbanisation, urbanization

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84 Modeling of Alpha-Particles’ Epigenetic Effects in Short-Term Test on Drosophila melanogaster

Authors: Z. M. Biyasheva, M. Zh. Tleubergenova, Y. A. Zaripova, A. L. Shakirov, V. V. Dyachkov

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In recent years, interest in ecogenetic and biomedical problems related to the effects on the population of radon and its daughter decay products has increased significantly. Of particular interest is the assessment of the consequence of irradiation at hazardous radon areas, which includes the Almaty region due to the large number of tectonic faults that enhance radon emanation. In connection with the foregoing, the purpose of this work was to study the genetic effects of exposure to supernormal radon doses on the alpha-radiation model. Irradiation does not affect the growth of the cell, but rather its ability to differentiate. In addition, irradiation can lead to somatic mutations, morphoses and modifications. These damages most likely occur from changes in the composition of the substances of the cell. Such changes are epigenetic since they affect the regulatory processes of ontogenesis. Variability in the expression of regulatory genes refers to conditional mutations that modify the formation of signs of intraspecific similarity. Characteristic features of these conditional mutations are the dominant type of their manifestation, phenotypic asymmetry and their instability in the generations. Currently, the terms “morphosis” and “modification” are used to describe epigenetic variability, which are maintained in Drosophila melanogaster cultures using linkaged X- chromosomes, and the mutant X-chromosome is transmitted along the paternal line. In this paper, we investigated the epigenetic effects of alpha particles, whose source in nature is mainly radon and its daughter decay products. In the experiment, an isotope of plutonium-238 (Pu238), generating radiation with an energy of about 5500 eV, was used as a source of alpha particles. In an experiment in the first generation (F1), deformities or morphoses were found, which can be called "radiation syndromes" or mutations, the manifestation of which is similar to the pleiotropic action of genes. The proportion of morphoses in the experiment was 1.8%, and in control 0.4%. In this experiment, the morphoses in the flies of the first and second generation looked like black spots, or melanomas on different parts of the imago body; "generalized" melanomas; curled, curved wings; shortened wing; bubble on one wing; absence of one wing, deformation of thorax, interruption and violation of tergite patterns, disruption of distribution of ocular facets and bristles; absence of pigmentation of the second and third legs. Statistical analysis by the Chi-square method showed the reliability of the difference in experiment and control at P ≤ 0.01. On the basis of this, it can be considered that alpha particles, which in the environment are mainly generated by radon and its isotopes, have a mutagenic effect that manifests itself, mainly in the formation of morphoses or deformities.

Keywords: alpha-radiation, genotoxicity, morphoses, radioecology, radon

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83 Teachers’ Instructional Decisions When Teaching Geometric Transformations

Authors: Lisa Kasmer

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Teachers’ instructional decisions shape the structure and content of mathematics lessons and influence the mathematics that students are given the opportunity to learn. Therefore, it is important to better understand how teachers make instructional decisions and thus find new ways to help practicing and future teachers give their students a more effective and robust learning experience. Understanding the relationship between teachers’ instructional decisions and their goals, resources, and orientations (beliefs) is important given the heightened focus on geometric transformations in the middle school mathematics curriculum. This work is significant as the development and support of current and future teachers need more effective ways to teach geometry to their students. The following research questions frame this study: (1) As middle school mathematics teachers plan and enact instruction related to teaching transformations, what thinking processes do they engage in to make decisions about teaching transformations with or without a coordinate system and (2) How do the goals, resources and orientations of these teachers impact their instructional decisions and reveal about their understanding of teaching transformations? Teachers and students alike struggle with understanding transformations; many teachers skip or hurriedly teach transformations at the end of the school year. However, transformations are an important mathematical topic as this topic supports students’ understanding of geometric and spatial reasoning. Geometric transformations are a foundational concept in mathematics, not only for understanding congruence and similarity but for proofs, algebraic functions, and calculus etc. Geometric transformations also underpin the secondary mathematics curriculum, as features of transformations transfer to other areas of mathematics. Teachers’ instructional decisions in terms of goals, orientations, and resources that support these instructional decisions were analyzed using open-coding. Open-coding is recognized as an initial first step in qualitative analysis, where comparisons are made, and preliminary categories are considered. Initial codes and categories from current research on teachers’ thinking processes that are related to the decisions they make while planning and reflecting on the lessons were also noted. Surfacing ideas and additional themes common across teachers while seeking patterns, were compared and analyzed. Finally, attributes of teachers’ goals, orientations and resources were identified in order to begin to build a picture of the reasoning behind their instructional decisions. These categories became the basis for the organization and conceptualization of the data. Preliminary results suggest that teachers often rely on their own orientations about teaching geometric transformations. These beliefs are underpinned by the teachers’ own mathematical knowledge related to teaching transformations. When a teacher does not have a robust understanding of transformations, they are limited by this lack of knowledge. These shortcomings impact students’ opportunities to learn, and thus disadvantage their own understanding of transformations. Teachers’ goals are also limited by their paucity of knowledge regarding transformations, as these goals do not fully represent the range of comprehension a teacher needs to teach this topic well.

Keywords: coordinate plane, geometric transformations, instructional decisions, middle school mathematics

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82 Tuberculosis (TB) and Lung Cancer

Authors: Asghar Arif

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Lung cancer has been recognized as one of the greatest common cancers, causing the annual mortality rate of about 1.2 million people in the world. Lung cancer is the most prevalent cancer in men and the third-most common cancer among women (after breast and digestive cancers).Recent evidences have shown the inflammatory process as one of the potential factors of cancer. Tuberculosis (TB), pneumonia, and chronic bronchitis are among the most important inflammation-inducing factors in the lungs, among which TB has a more profound role in the emergence of cancer.TB is one of the important mortality factors throughout the world, and 205,000 death cases are reported annually due to this disease. Chronic inflammation and fibrosis due to TB can induce genetic mutation and alternations. Parenchyma tissue of lung is involved in both diseases of TB and lung cancer, and continuous cough in lung cancer, morphological vascular variations, lymphocytosis processes, and generation of immune system mediators such as interleukins, are all among the factors leading to the hypothesis regarding the role of TB in lung cancer Some reports have shown that the induction of necrosis and apoptosis or TB reactivation, especially in patients with immune-deficiency, may result in increasing IL-17 and TNF_α, which will either decrease P53 activity or increase the expression of Bcl-2, decrease Bax-T, and cause the inhibition of caspase-3 expression due to decreasing the expression of mitochondria cytochrome oxidase. It has been also indicated that following the injection of BCG vaccine, the host immune system will be reinforced, and in particular, the rates of gamma interferon, nitric oxide, and interleukin-2 are increased. Therefore, CD4 + lymphocyte function will be improved, and the person will be immune against cancer.Numerous prospective studies have so far been conducted on the role of TB in lung cancer, and it seems that this disease is effective in that particular cancer.One of the main challenges of lung cancer is its correct and timely diagnosis. Unfortunately, clinical symptoms (such as continuous cough, hemoptysis, weight loss, fever, chest pain, dyspnea, and loss of appetite) and radiological images are similar in TB and lung cancer. Therefore, anti-TB drugs are routinely prescribed for the patients in the countries with high prevalence of TB, like Pakistan. Regarding the similarity in clinical symptoms and radiological findings of lung cancer, proper diagnosis is necessary for TB and respiratory infections due to nontuberculousmycobacteria (NTM). Some of the drug resistive TB cases are, in fact, lung cancer or NTM lung infections. Acid-fast staining and histological study of phlegm and bronchial washing, culturing and polymerase chain reaction TB are among the most important solutions for differential diagnosis of these diseases. Briefly, it is assumed that TB is one of the risk factors for cancer. Numerous studies have been conducted in this regard throughout the world, and it has been observed that there is a significant relationship between previous TB infection and lung cancer. However, to prove this hypothesis, further and more extensive studies are required. In addition, as the clinical symptoms and radiological findings of TB, lung cancer, and non-TB mycobacteria lung infections are similar, they can be misdiagnosed as TB.

Keywords: TB and lung cancer, TB people, TB servivers, TB and HIV aids

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81 Monitoring Future Climate Changes Pattern over Major Cities in Ghana Using Coupled Modeled Intercomparison Project Phase 5, Support Vector Machine, and Random Forest Modeling

Authors: Stephen Dankwa, Zheng Wenfeng, Xiaolu Li

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Climate change is recently gaining the attention of many countries across the world. Climate change, which is also known as global warming, referring to the increasing in average surface temperature has been a concern to the Environmental Protection Agency of Ghana. Recently, Ghana has become vulnerable to the effect of the climate change as a result of the dependence of the majority of the population on agriculture. The clearing down of trees to grow crops and burning of charcoal in the country has been a contributing factor to the rise in temperature nowadays in the country as a result of releasing of carbon dioxide and greenhouse gases into the air. Recently, petroleum stations across the cities have been on fire due to this climate changes and which have position Ghana in a way not able to withstand this climate event. As a result, the significant of this research paper is to project how the rise in the average surface temperature will be like at the end of the mid-21st century when agriculture and deforestation are allowed to continue for some time in the country. This study uses the Coupled Modeled Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) experiment RCP 8.5 model output data to monitor the future climate changes from 2041-2050, at the end of the mid-21st century over the ten (10) major cities (Accra, Bolgatanga, Cape Coast, Koforidua, Kumasi, Sekondi-Takoradi, Sunyani, Ho, Tamale, Wa) in Ghana. In the models, Support Vector Machine and Random forest, where the cities as a function of heat wave metrics (minimum temperature, maximum temperature, mean temperature, heat wave duration and number of heat waves) assisted to provide more than 50% accuracy to predict and monitor the pattern of the surface air temperature. The findings identified were that the near-surface air temperature will rise between 1°C-2°C (degrees Celsius) over the coastal cities (Accra, Cape Coast, Sekondi-Takoradi). The temperature over Kumasi, Ho and Sunyani by the end of 2050 will rise by 1°C. In Koforidua, it will rise between 1°C-2°C. The temperature will rise in Bolgatanga, Tamale and Wa by 0.5°C by 2050. This indicates how the coastal and the southern part of the country are becoming hotter compared with the north, even though the northern part is the hottest. During heat waves from 2041-2050, Bolgatanga, Tamale, and Wa will experience the highest mean daily air temperature between 34°C-36°C. Kumasi, Koforidua, and Sunyani will experience about 34°C. The coastal cities (Accra, Cape Coast, Sekondi-Takoradi) will experience below 32°C. Even though, the coastal cities will experience the lowest mean temperature, they will have the highest number of heat waves about 62. Majority of the heat waves will last between 2 to 10 days with the maximum 30 days. The surface temperature will continue to rise by the end of the mid-21st century (2041-2050) over the major cities in Ghana and so needs to be addressed to the Environmental Protection Agency in Ghana in order to mitigate this problem.

Keywords: climate changes, CMIP5, Ghana, heat waves, random forest, SVM

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80 Interacting with Multi-Scale Structures of Online Political Debates by Visualizing Phylomemies

Authors: Quentin Lobbe, David Chavalarias, Alexandre Delanoe

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The ICT revolution has given birth to an unprecedented world of digital traces and has impacted a wide number of knowledge-driven domains such as science, education or policy making. Nowadays, we are daily fueled by unlimited flows of articles, blogs, messages, tweets, etc. The internet itself can thus be considered as an unsteady hyper-textual environment where websites emerge and expand every day. But there are structures inside knowledge. A given text can always be studied in relation to others or in light of a specific socio-cultural context. By way of their textual traces, human beings are calling each other out: hypertext citations, retweets, vocabulary similarity, etc. We are in fact the architects of a giant web of elements of knowledge whose structures and shapes convey their own information. The global shapes of these digital traces represent a source of collective knowledge and the question of their visualization remains an opened challenge. How can we explore, browse and interact with such shapes? In order to navigate across these growing constellations of words and texts, interdisciplinary innovations are emerging at the crossroad between fields of social and computational sciences. In particular, complex systems approaches make it now possible to reconstruct the hidden structures of textual knowledge by means of multi-scale objects of research such as semantic maps and phylomemies. The phylomemy reconstruction is a generic method related to the co-word analysis framework. Phylomemies aim to reveal the temporal dynamics of large corpora of textual contents by performing inter-temporal matching on extracted knowledge domains in order to identify their conceptual lineages. This study aims to address the question of visualizing the global shapes of online political discussions related to the French presidential and legislative elections of 2017. We aim to build phylomemies on top of a dedicated collection of thousands of French political tweets enriched with archived contemporary news web articles. Our goal is to reconstruct the temporal evolution of online debates fueled by each political community during the elections. To that end, we want to introduce an iterative data exploration methodology implemented and tested within the free software Gargantext. There we combine synchronic and diachronic axis of visualization to reveal the dynamics of our corpora of tweets and web pages as well as their inner syntagmatic and paradigmatic relationships. In doing so, we aim to provide researchers with innovative methodological means to explore online semantic landscapes in a collaborative and reflective way.

Keywords: online political debate, French election, hyper-text, phylomemy

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79 Evaluation of the Role of Advocacy and the Quality of Care in Reducing Health Inequalities for People with Autism, Intellectual and Developmental Disabilities at Sheffield Teaching Hospitals

Authors: Jonathan Sahu, Jill Aylott

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Individuals with Autism, Intellectual and Developmental disabilities (AIDD) are one of the most vulnerable groups in society, hampered not only by their own limitations to understand and interact with the wider society, but also societal limitations in perception and understanding. Communication to express their needs and wishes is fundamental to enable such individuals to live and prosper in society. This research project was designed as an organisational case study, in a large secondary health care hospital within the National Health Service (NHS), to assess the quality of care provided to people with AIDD and to review the role of advocacy to reduce health inequalities in these individuals. Methods: The research methodology adopted was as an “insider researcher”. Data collection included both quantitative and qualitative data i.e. a mixed method approach. A semi-structured interview schedule was designed and used to obtain qualitative and quantitative primary data from a wide range of interdisciplinary frontline health care workers to assess their understanding and awareness of systems, processes and evidence based practice to offer a quality service to people with AIDD. Secondary data were obtained from sources within the organisation, in keeping with “Case Study” as a primary method, and organisational performance data were then compared against national benchmarking standards. Further data sources were accessed to help evaluate the effectiveness of different types of advocacy that were present in the organisation. This was gauged by measures of user and carer experience in the form of retrospective survey analysis, incidents and complaints. Results: Secondary data demonstrate near compliance of the Organisation with the current national benchmarking standard (Monitor Compliance Framework). However, primary data demonstrate poor knowledge of the Mental Capacity Act 2005, poor knowledge of organisational systems, processes and evidence based practice applied for people with AIDD. In addition there was poor knowledge and awareness of frontline health care workers of advocacy and advocacy schemes for this group. Conclusions: A significant amount of work needs to be undertaken to improve the quality of care delivered to individuals with AIDD. An operational strategy promoting the widespread dissemination of information may not be the best approach to deliver quality care and optimal patient experience and patient advocacy. In addition, a more robust set of standards, with appropriate metrics, needs to be developed to assess organisational performance which will stand the test of professional and public scrutiny.

Keywords: advocacy, autism, health inequalities, intellectual developmental disabilities, quality of care

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78 A Fermatean Fuzzy MAIRCA Approach for Maintenance Strategy Selection of Process Plant Gearbox Using Sustainability Criteria

Authors: Soumava Boral, Sanjay K. Chaturvedi, Ian Howard, Kristoffer McKee, V. N. A. Naikan

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Due to strict regulations from government to enhance the possibilities of sustainability practices in industries, and noting the advances in sustainable manufacturing practices, it is necessary that the associated processes are also sustainable. Maintenance of large scale and complex machines is a pivotal task to maintain the uninterrupted flow of manufacturing processes. Appropriate maintenance practices can prolong the lifetime of machines, and prevent associated breakdowns, which subsequently reduces different cost heads. Selection of the best maintenance strategies for such machines are considered as a burdensome task, as they require the consideration of multiple technical criteria, complex mathematical calculations, previous fault data, maintenance records, etc. In the era of the fourth industrial revolution, organizations are rapidly changing their way of business, and they are giving their utmost importance to sensor technologies, artificial intelligence, data analytics, automations, etc. In this work, the effectiveness of several maintenance strategies (e.g., preventive, failure-based, reliability centered, condition based, total productive maintenance, etc.) related to a large scale and complex gearbox, operating in a steel processing plant is evaluated in terms of economic, social, environmental and technical criteria. As it is not possible to obtain/describe some criteria by exact numerical values, these criteria are evaluated linguistically by cross-functional experts. Fuzzy sets are potential soft-computing technique, which has been useful to deal with linguistic data and to provide inferences in many complex situations. To prioritize different maintenance practices based on the identified sustainable criteria, multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approaches can be considered as potential tools. Multi-Attributive Ideal Real Comparative Analysis (MAIRCA) is a recent addition in the MCDM family and has proven its superiority over some well-known MCDM approaches, like TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) and ELECTRE (ELimination Et Choix Traduisant la REalité). It has a simple but robust mathematical approach, which is easy to comprehend. On the other side, due to some inherent drawbacks of Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets (IFS) and Pythagorean Fuzzy Sets (PFS), recently, the use of Fermatean Fuzzy Sets (FFSs) has been proposed. In this work, we propose the novel concept of FF-MAIRCA. We obtain the weights of the criteria by experts’ evaluation and use them to prioritize the different maintenance practices according to their suitability by FF-MAIRCA approach. Finally, a sensitivity analysis is carried out to highlight the robustness of the approach.

Keywords: Fermatean fuzzy sets, Fermatean fuzzy MAIRCA, maintenance strategy selection, sustainable manufacturing, MCDM

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77 Coupled Field Formulation – A Unified Method for Formulating Structural Mechanics Problems

Authors: Ramprasad Srinivasan

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Engineers create inventions and put their ideas in concrete terms to design new products. Design drivers must be established, which requires, among other things, a complete understanding of the product design, load paths, etc. For Aerospace Vehicles, weight/strength ratio, strength, stiffness and stability are the important design drivers. A complex built-up structure is made up of an assemblage of primitive structural forms of arbitrary shape, which include 1D structures like beams and frames, 2D structures like membranes, plate and shell structures, and 3D solid structures. Justification through simulation involves a check for all the quantities of interest, namely stresses, deformation, frequencies, and buckling loads and is normally achieved through the finite element (FE) method. Over the past few decades, Fiber-reinforced composites are fast replacing the traditional metallic structures in the weight-sensitive aerospace and aircraft industries due to their high specific strength, high specific stiffness, anisotropic properties, design freedom for tailoring etc. Composite panel constructions are used in aircraft to design primary structure components like wings, empennage, ailerons, etc., while thin-walled composite beams (TWCB) are used to model slender structures like stiffened panels, helicopter, and wind turbine rotor blades, etc. The TWCB demonstrates many non-classical effects like torsional and constrained warping, transverse shear, coupling effects, heterogeneity, etc., which makes the analysis of composite structures far more complex. Conventional FE formulations to model 1D structures suffer from many limitations like shear locking, particularly in slender beams, lower convergence rates due to material coupling in composites, inability to satisfy, equilibrium in the domain and natural boundary conditions (NBC) etc. For 2D structures, the limitations of conventional displacement-based FE formulations include the inability to satisfy NBC explicitly and many pathological problems such as shear and membrane locking, spurious modes, stress oscillations, lower convergence due to mesh distortion etc. This mandates frequent re-meshing to even achieve an acceptable mesh (satisfy stringent quality metrics) for analysis leading to significant cycle time. Besides, currently, there is a need for separate formulations (u/p) to model incompressible materials, and a single unified formulation is missing in the literature. Hence coupled field formulation (CFF) is a unified formulation proposed by the author for the solution of complex 1D and 2D structures addressing the gaps in the literature mentioned above. The salient features of CFF and its many advantages over other conventional methods shall be presented in this paper.

Keywords: coupled field formulation, kinematic and material coupling, natural boundary condition, locking free formulation

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76 Elucidation of Dynamics of Murine Double Minute 2 Shed Light on the Anti-cancer Drug Development

Authors: Nigar Kantarci Carsibasi

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Coarse-grained elastic network models, namely Gaussian network model (GNM) and Anisotropic network model (ANM), are utilized in order to investigate the fluctuation dynamics of Murine Double Minute 2 (MDM2), which is the native inhibitor of p53. Conformational dynamics of MDM2 are elucidated in unbound, p53 bound, and non-peptide small molecule inhibitor bound forms. With this, it is aimed to gain insights about the alterations brought to global dynamics of MDM2 by native peptide inhibitor p53, and two small molecule inhibitors (HDM201 and NVP-CGM097) that are undergoing clinical stages in cancer studies. MDM2 undergoes significant conformational changes upon inhibitor binding, carrying pieces of evidence of induced-fit mechanism. Small molecule inhibitors examined in this work exhibit similar fluctuation dynamics and characteristic mode shapes with p53 when complexed with MDM2, which would shed light on the design of novel small molecule inhibitors for cancer therapy. The results showed that residues Phe 19, Trp 23, Leu 26 reside in the minima of slowest modes of p53, pointing to the accepted three-finger binding model. Pro 27 displays the most significant hinge present in p53 and comes out to be another functionally important residue. Three distinct regions are identified in MDM2, for which significant conformational changes are observed upon binding. Regions I (residues 50-77) and III (residues 90-105) correspond to the binding interface of MDM2, including (α2, L2, and α4), which are stabilized during complex formation. Region II (residues 77-90) exhibits a large amplitude motion, being highly flexible, both in the absence and presence of p53 or other inhibitors. MDM2 exhibits a scattered profile in the fastest modes of motion, while binding of p53 and inhibitors puts restraints on MDM2 domains, clearly distinguishing the kinetically hot regions. Mode shape analysis revealed that the α4 domain controls the size of the cleft by keeping the cleft narrow in unbound MDM2; and open in the bound states for proper penetration and binding of p53 and inhibitors, which points to the induced-fit mechanism of p53 binding. P53 interacts with α2 and α4 in a synchronized manner. Collective modes are shifted upon inhibitor binding, i.e., second mode characteristic motion in MDM2-p53 complex is observed in the first mode of apo MDM2; however, apo and bound MDM2 exhibits similar features in the softest modes pointing to pre-existing modes facilitating the ligand binding. Although much higher amplitude motions are attained in the presence of non-peptide small molecule inhibitor molecules as compared to p53, they demonstrate close similarity. Hence, NVP-CGM097 and HDM201 succeed in mimicking the p53 behavior well. Elucidating how drug candidates alter the MDM2 global and conformational dynamics would shed light on the rational design of novel anticancer drugs.

Keywords: cancer, drug design, elastic network model, MDM2

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75 Accelerating Personalization Using Digital Tools to Drive Circular Fashion

Authors: Shamini Dhana, G. Subrahmanya VRK Rao

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The fashion industry is advancing towards a mindset of zero waste, personalization, creativity, and circularity. The trend of upcycling clothing and materials into personalized fashion is being demanded by the next generation. There is a need for a digital tool to accelerate the process towards mass customization. Dhana’s D/Sphere fashion technology platform uses digital tools to accelerate upcycling. In essence, advanced fashion garments can be designed and developed via reuse, repurposing, recreating activities, and using existing fabric and circulating materials. The D/Sphere platform has the following objectives: to provide (1) An opportunity to develop modern fashion using existing, finished materials and clothing without chemicals or water consumption; (2) The potential for an everyday customer and designer to use the medium of fashion for creative expression; (3) A solution to address the global textile waste generated by pre- and post-consumer fashion; (4) A solution to reduce carbon emissions, water, and energy consumption with the participation of all stakeholders; (5) An opportunity for brands, manufacturers, retailers to work towards zero-waste designs and as an alternative revenue stream. Other benefits of this alternative approach include sustainability metrics, trend prediction, facilitation of disassembly and remanufacture deep learning, and hyperheuristics for high accuracy. A design tool for mass personalization and customization utilizing existing circulating materials and deadstock, targeted to fashion stakeholders will lower environmental costs, increase revenues through up to date upcycled apparel, produce less textile waste during the cut-sew-stitch process, and provide a real design solution for the end customer to be part of circular fashion. The broader impact of this technology will result in a different mindset to circular fashion, increase the value of the product through multiple life cycles, find alternatives towards zero waste, and reduce the textile waste that ends up in landfills. This technology platform will be of interest to brands and companies that have the responsibility to reduce their environmental impact and contribution to climate change as it pertains to the fashion and apparel industry. Today, over 70% of the $3 trillion fashion and apparel industry ends up in landfills. To this extent, the industry needs such alternative techniques to both address global textile waste as well as provide an opportunity to include all stakeholders and drive circular fashion with new personalized products. This type of modern systems thinking is currently being explored around the world by the private sector, organizations, research institutions, and governments. This technological innovation using digital tools has the potential to revolutionize the way we look at communication, capabilities, and collaborative opportunities amongst stakeholders in the development of new personalized and customized products, as well as its positive impacts on society, our environment, and global climate change.

Keywords: circular fashion, deep learning, digital technology platform, personalization

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74 Regulation of Desaturation of Fatty Acid and Triglyceride Synthesis by Myostatin through Swine-Specific MEF2C/miR222/SCD5 Pathway

Authors: Wei Xiao, Gangzhi Cai, Xingliang Qin, Hongyan Ren, Zaidong Hua, Zhe Zhu, Hongwei Xiao, Ximin Zheng, Jie Yao, Yanzhen Bi

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Myostatin (MSTN) is the master regulator of double muscling phenotype with overgrown muscle and decreased fatness in animals, but its action mode to regulate fat deposition remains to be elucidated. In this study a swin-specific pathway through which MSTN acts to regulate the fat deposition was deciphered. Deep sequenincing of the mRNA and miRNA of fat tissues of MSTN knockout (KO) and wildtype (WT) pigs discovered the positive correlation of myocyte enhancer factor 2C (MEF2C) and fat-inhibiting miR222 expression, and the inverse correlation of miR222 and stearoyl-CoA desaturase 5 (SCD5) expression. SCD5 is rodent-absent and expressed only in pig, sheep and cattle. Fatty acid spectrum of fat tissues revealed a lower percentage of oleoyl-CoA (18:1) and palmitoleyl CoA (16:1) in MSTN KO pigs, which are the catalyzing products of SCD5-mediated desaturation of steroyl CoA (18:0) and palmitoyl CoA (16:0). Blood metrics demonstrated a 45% decline of triglyceride (TG) content in MSTN KO pigs. In light of these observations we hypothesized that MSTN might act through MEF2C/miR222/SCD5 pathway to regulate desaturation of fatty acid as well as triglyceride synthesis in pigs. To this end, real-time PCR and Western blotting were carried out to detect the expression of the three genes stated above. These experiments showed that MEF2C expression was up-regulated by nearly 2-fold, miR222 up-regulated by nearly 3-fold and SCD5 down-regulated by nearly 50% in MSTN KO pigs. These data were consistent with the expression change in deep sequencing analysis. Dual luciferase reporter was then used to confirm the regulation of MEF2C upon the promoter of miR222. Ecotopic expression of MEF2C in preadipocyte cells enhanced miR222 expression by 3.48-fold. CHIP-PCR identified a putative binding site of MEF2C on -2077 to -2066 region of miR222 promoter. Electrophoretic mobility shift assay (EMSA) demonstrated the interaction of MEF2C and miR222 promoter in vitro. These data indicated that MEF2C transcriptionally regulates the expression of miR222. Next, the regulation of miR222 on SCD5 mRNA as well as its physiological consequences were examined. Dual luciferase reporter testing revealed the translational inhibition of miR222 upon the 3´ UTR (untranslated region) of SCD5 in preadipocyte cells. Transfection of miR222 mimics and inhibitors resulted in the down-regulation and up-regulation of SCD5 in preadipocyte cells respectively, consistent with the results from reporter testing. RNA interference of SCD5 in preadipocyte cells caused 26.2% reduction of TG, in agreement with the results of TG content in MSTN KO pigs. In summary, the results above supported the existence of a molecular pathway that MSTN signals through MEF2C/miR222/SCD5 to regulate the fat deposition in pigs. This swine-specific pathway offers potential molecular markers for the development and breeding of a new pig line with optimised fatty acid composition. This would benefit human health by decreasing the takeup of saturated fatty acid.

Keywords: fat deposition, MEF2C, miR222, myostatin, SCD5, pig

Procedia PDF Downloads 120
73 An Exploration of the Emergency Staff’s Perceptions and Experiences of Teamwork and the Skills Required in the Emergency Department in Saudi Arabia

Authors: Sami Alanazi

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Teamwork practices have been recognized as a significant strategy to improve patient safety, quality of care, and staff and patient satisfaction in healthcare settings, particularly within the emergency department (ED). The EDs depend heavily on teams of interdisciplinary healthcare staff to carry out their operational goals and core business of providing care to the serious illness and injured. The ED is also recognized as a high-risk area in relation to service demand and the potential for human error. Few studies have considered the perceptions and experiences of the ED staff (physicians, nurses, allied health professionals, and administration staff) about the practice of teamwork, especially in Saudi Arabia (SA), and no studies have been conducted to explore the practices of teamwork in the EDs. Aim: To explore the practices of teamwork from the perspectives and experiences of staff (physicians, nurses, allied health professionals, and administration staff) when interacting with each other in the admission areas in the ED of a public hospital in the Northern Border region of SA. Method: A qualitative case study design was utilized, drawing on two methods for the data collection, comprising of semi-structured interviews (n=22) with physicians (6), nurses (10), allied health professionals (3), and administrative members (3) working in the ED of a hospital in the Northern Border region of SA. The second method is non-participant direct observation. All data were analyzed using thematic analysis. Findings: The main themes that emerged from the analysis were as follows: the meaningful of teamwork, reasons of teamwork, the ED environmental factors, the organizational factors, the value of communication, leadership, teamwork skills in the ED, team members' behaviors, multicultural teamwork, and patients and families behaviors theme. Discussion: Working in the ED environment played a major role in affecting work performance as well as team dynamics. However, Communication, time management, fast-paced performance, multitasking, motivation, leadership, and stress management were highlighted by the participants as fundamental skills that have a major impact on team members and patients in the ED. It was found that the behaviors of the team members impacted the team dynamics as well as ED health services. Behaviors such as disputes among team members, conflict, cooperation, uncooperative members, neglect, and emotions of the members. Besides that, the behaviors of the patients and their accompanies had a direct impact on the team and the quality of the services. In addition, the differences in the cultures have separated the team members and created undesirable gaps such the gender segregation, national origin discrimination, and similarity and different in interests. Conclusion: Effective teamwork, in the context of the emergency department, was recognized as an essential element to obtain the quality of care as well as improve staff satisfaction.

Keywords: teamwork, barrier, facilitator, emergencydepartment

Procedia PDF Downloads 125
72 Constructing and Circulating Knowledge in Continuous Education: A Study of Norwegian Educational-Psychological Counsellors' Reflection Logs in Post-Graduate Education

Authors: Moen Torill, Rismark Marit, Astrid M. Solvberg

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In Norway, every municipality shall provide an educational psychological service, EPS, to support kindergartens and schools in their work with children and youths with special needs. The EPS focus its work on individuals, aiming to identify special needs and to give advice to teachers and parents when they ask for it. In addition, the service also give priority to prevention and system intervention in kindergartens and schools. To master these big tasks university courses are established to support EPS counsellors' continuous learning. There is, however, a need for more in-depth and systematic knowledge on how they experience the courses they attend. In this study, EPS counsellors’ reflection logs during a particular course are investigated. The research question is: what are the content and priorities of the reflections that are communicated in the logs produced by the educational psychological counsellors during a post-graduate course? The investigated course is a credit course organized over a one-year period in two one-semester modules. The altogether 55 students enrolled in the course work as EPS counsellors in various municipalities across Norway. At the end of each day throughout the course period, the participants wrote reflection logs about what they had experienced during the day. The data material consists of 165 pages of typed text. The collaborating researchers studied the data material to ascertain, differentiate and understand the meaning of the content in each log. The analysis also involved the search for similarity in content and development of analytical categories that described the focus and primary concerns in each of the written logs. This involved constant 'critical and sustained discussions' for mutual construction of meaning between the co-researchers in the developing categories. The process is inspired by Grounded Theory. This means that the concepts developed during the analysis derived from the data material and not chosen prior to the investigation. The analysis revealed that the concept 'Useful' frequently appeared in the participants’ reflections and, as such, 'Useful' serves as a core category. The core category is described through three major categories: (1) knowledge sharing (concerning direct and indirect work with students with special needs) with colleagues is useful, (2) reflections on models and theoretical concepts (concerning students with special needs) are useful, (3) reflection on the role as EPS counsellor is useful. In all the categories, the notion of useful occurs in the participants’ emphasis on and acknowledgement of the immediate and direct link between the university course content and their daily work practice. Even if each category has an importance and value of its own, it is crucial that they are understood in connection with one another and as interwoven. It is the connectedness that gives the core category an overarching explanatory power. The knowledge from this study may be a relevant contribution when it comes to designing new courses that support continuing professional development for EPS counsellors, whether for post-graduate university courses or local courses at the EPS offices or whether in Norway or other countries in the world.

Keywords: constructing and circulating knowledge, educational-psychological counsellor, higher education, professional development

Procedia PDF Downloads 103
71 Use of Artificial Neural Networks to Estimate Evapotranspiration for Efficient Irrigation Management

Authors: Adriana Postal, Silvio C. Sampaio, Marcio A. Villas Boas, Josué P. Castro

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This study deals with the estimation of reference evapotranspiration (ET₀) in an agricultural context, focusing on efficient irrigation management to meet the growing interest in the sustainable management of water resources. Given the importance of water in agriculture and its scarcity in many regions, efficient use of this resource is essential to ensure food security and environmental sustainability. The methodology used involved the application of artificial intelligence techniques, specifically Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), to predict ET₀ in the state of Paraná, Brazil. The models were trained and validated with meteorological data from the Brazilian National Institute of Meteorology (INMET), together with data obtained from a producer's weather station in the western region of Paraná. Two optimizers (SGD and Adam) and different meteorological variables, such as temperature, humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed, were explored as inputs to the models. Nineteen configurations with different input variables were tested; amidst them, configuration 9, with 8 input variables, was identified as the most efficient of all. Configuration 10, with 4 input variables, was considered the most effective, considering the smallest number of variables. The main conclusions of this study show that MLP ANNs are capable of accurately estimating ET₀, providing a valuable tool for irrigation management in agriculture. Both configurations (9 and 10) showed promising performance in predicting ET₀. The validation of the models with cultivator data underlined the practical relevance of these tools and confirmed their generalization ability for different field conditions. The results of the statistical metrics, including Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and Coefficient of Determination (R²), showed excellent agreement between the model predictions and the observed data, with MAE as low as 0.01 mm/day and 0.03 mm/day, respectively. In addition, the models achieved an R² between 0.99 and 1, indicating a satisfactory fit to the real data. This agreement was also confirmed by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, which evaluates the agreement of the predictions with the statistical behavior of the real data and yields values between 0.02 and 0.04 for the producer data. In addition, the results of this study suggest that the developed technique can be applied to other locations by using specific data from these sites to further improve ET₀ predictions and thus contribute to sustainable irrigation management in different agricultural regions. The study has some limitations, such as the use of a single ANN architecture and two optimizers, the validation with data from only one producer, and the possible underestimation of the influence of seasonality and local climate variability. An irrigation management application using the most efficient models from this study is already under development. Future research can explore different ANN architectures and optimization techniques, validate models with data from multiple producers and regions, and investigate the model's response to different seasonal and climatic conditions.

Keywords: agricultural technology, neural networks in agriculture, water efficiency, water use optimization

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70 Ascidian Styela rustica Proteins’ Structural Domains Predicted to Participate in the Tunic Formation

Authors: M. I. Tyletc, O. I. Podgornya, T. G. Shaposhnikova, S. V. Shabelnikov, A. G. Mittenberg, M. A. Daugavet

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Ascidiacea is the most numerous class of the Tunicata subtype. These chordates' distinctive feature of the anatomical structure is a tunic consisting of cellulose fibrils, protein molecules, and single cells. The mechanisms of the tunic formation are not known in detail; tunic formation could be used as the model system for studying the interaction of cells with the extracellular matrix. Our model species is the ascidian Styela rustica, which is prevalent in benthic communities of the White Sea. As previously shown, the tunic formation involves morula blood cells, which contain the major 48 kDa protein p48. P48 participation in the tunic formation was proved using antibodies against the protein. The nature of the protein and its function remains unknown. The current research aims to determine the amino acid sequence of p48, as well as to clarify its role in the tunic formation. The peptides that make up the p48 amino acid sequence were determined by mass spectrometry. A search for peptides in protein sequence databases identified sequences homologous to p48 in Styela clava, Styela plicata, and Styela canopus. Based on sequence alignment, their level of similarity was determined as 81-87%. The correspondent sequence of ascidian Styela canopus was used for further analysis. The Styela rustica p48 sequence begins with a signal peptide, which could indicate that the protein is secretory. This is consistent with experimentally obtained data: the contents of morula cells secreted in the tunic matrix. The isoelectric point of p48 is 9.77, which is consistent with the experimental results of acid electrophoresis of morula cell proteins. However, the molecular weight of the amino acid sequence of ascidian Styela canopus is 103 kDa, so p48 of Styela rustica is a shorter homolog. The search for conservative functional domains revealed the presence of two Ca-binding EGF-like domains, thrombospondin (TSP1) and tyrosinase domains. The p48 peptides determined by mass spectrometry fall into the region of the sequence corresponding to the last two domains and have amino acid substitutions as compared to Styela canopus homolog. The tyrosinase domain (pfam00264) is known to be part of the phenoloxidase enzyme, which participates in melanization processes and the immune response. The thrombospondin domain (smart00209) interacts with a wide range of proteins, and is involved in several biological processes, including coagulation, cell adhesion, modulation of intercellular and cell-matrix interactions, angiogenesis, wound healing and tissue remodeling. It can be assumed that the tyrosinase domain in p48 plays the role of the phenoloxidase enzyme, and TSP1 provides a link between the extracellular matrix and cell surface receptors, and may also be responsible for the repair of the tunic. The results obtained are consistent with experimental data on p48. The domain organization of protein suggests that p48 is an enzyme involved in the tunic tunning and is an important regulator of the organization of the extracellular matrix.

Keywords: ascidian, p48, thrombospondin, tyrosinase, tunic, tunning

Procedia PDF Downloads 99
69 Bacterial Diversity in Vaginal Microbiota in Patients with Different Levels of Cervical Lesions Related to Human Papillomavirus Infection

Authors: Michelle S. Pereira, Analice C. Azevedo, Julliane D. Medeiros, Ana Claudia S. Martins, Didier S. Castellano-Filho, Claudio G. Diniz, Vania L. Silva

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Vaginal microbiota is a complex ecosystem, composed by aerobic and anaerobic bacteria, living in a dynamic equilibrium. Lactobacillus spp. are predominant in vaginal ecosystem, and factors such as immunity and hormonal variations may lead to disruptions, resulting in proliferation of opportunistic pathogens. Bacterial vaginosis (BV) is a polymicrobial syndrome, caused by an increasing of anaerobic bacteria replacing Lactobacillus spp. Microorganisms such as Gardnerella vaginalis, Mycoplasma hominis, Mobiluncus spp., and Atopobium vaginae can be found in BV, which may also be associated to other infections such as by Human Papillomavirus (HPV). HPV is highly prevalent in sexually active women, and is considered a risk factor for development of cervical cancer. As long as few data is available on vaginal microbiota of women with HPV-associated cervical lesions, our objectives were to evaluate the diversity in vaginal ecosystem in these women. To all patients, clinical and socio-demographic data were collected after gynecological examination. This study was approved by the Ethics Committee from Federal University of Juiz de Fora, Minas Gerais, Brazil. Vaginal secretion and cervical scraping were collected. Gram-stained smears were evaluated to establish Nugent score for BV determination. Viral and bacterial DNA obtained was used as template for HPV genotyping (PCR) and bacterial fingerprint (REP-PCR). In total 31 patients were included (mean age 35 and 93.6% sexually active). The Nugent score showed that 38.7% were BV. From the medical records, Pap smear tests showed that 32.3% had low grade squamous epithelial lesion (LSIL), 29% had high grade squamous epithelial lesion (HSIL), 25.8% had atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASC-US) and 12.9% with atypical squamous cells that would not exclude high-grade lesion (ASC-H). All participants were HPV+. HPV-16 was the most frequent (87.1%), followed by HPV-18 (61.3%). HPV-31, HPV-52 and HPV-58 were also detected. Coinfection HPV-16/HPV-18 was observed in 75%. In the 18-30 age group, HPV-16 was detected in 40%, and HPV-16/HPV-18 coinfection in 35%. HPV-16 was associated to 30% of ASC-H and 20% of HSIL patients. BV was observed in 50% of HPV-16+ participants and in 45% of HPV-16/HPV-18+. Fingerprints of bacterial communities showed clusters with low similarity suggesting high heterogeneity in vaginal microbiota within the sampled group. Overall, the data is worrisome once cervical-cancer highly risk-associated HPV-types were identified. The high microbial diversity observed may be related to the different levels of cellular lesions, and different physiological conditions of the participants (age, social behavior, education). Further prospective studies are needed to better address correlations and BV and microbial imbalance in vaginal ecosystems which would be related to the different cellular lesions in women with HPV infections. Supported by FAPEMIG, CNPq, CAPES, PPGCBIO/UFJF.

Keywords: human papillomavirus, bacterial vaginosis, bacterial diversity, cervical cancer

Procedia PDF Downloads 183
68 Beyond Personal Evidence: Using Learning Analytics and Student Feedback to Improve Learning Experiences

Authors: Shawndra Bowers, Allie Brandriet, Betsy Gilbertson

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This paper will highlight how Auburn Online’s instructional designers leveraged student and faculty data to update and improve online course design and instructional materials. When designing and revising online courses, it can be difficult for faculty to know what strategies are most likely to engage learners and improve educational outcomes in a specific discipline. It can also be difficult to identify which metrics are most useful for understanding and improving teaching, learning, and course design. At Auburn Online, the instructional designers use a suite of data based student’s performance, participation, satisfaction, and engagement, as well as faculty perceptions, to inform sound learning and design principles that guide growth-mindset consultations with faculty. The consultations allow the instructional designer, along with the faculty member, to co-create an actionable course improvement plan. Auburn Online gathers learning analytics from a variety of sources that any instructor or instructional design team may have access to at their own institutions. Participation and performance data, such as page: views, assignment submissions, and aggregate grade distributions, are collected from the learning management system. Engagement data is pulled from the video hosting platform, which includes unique viewers, views and downloads, the minutes delivered, and the average duration each video is viewed. Student satisfaction is also obtained through a short survey that is embedded at the end of each instructional module. This survey is included in each course every time it is taught. The survey data is then analyzed by an instructional designer for trends and pain points in order to identify areas that can be modified, such as course content and instructional strategies, to better support student learning. This analysis, along with the instructional designer’s recommendations, is presented in a comprehensive report to instructors in an hour-long consultation where instructional designers collaborate with the faculty member on how and when to implement improvements. Auburn Online has developed a triage strategy of priority 1 or 2 level changes that will be implemented in future course iterations. This data-informed decision-making process helps instructors focus on what will best work in their teaching environment while addressing which areas need additional attention. As a student-centered process, it has created improved learning environments for students and has been well received by faculty. It has also shown to be effective in addressing the need for improvement while removing the feeling the faculty’s teaching is being personally attacked. The process that Auburn Online uses is laid out, along with the three-tier maintenance and revision guide that will be used over a three-year implementation plan. This information can help others determine what components of the maintenance and revision plan they want to utilize, as well as guide them on how to create a similar approach. The data will be used to analyze, revise, and improve courses by providing recommendations and models of good practices through determining and disseminating best practices that demonstrate an impact on student success.

Keywords: data-driven, improvement, online courses, faculty development, analytics, course design

Procedia PDF Downloads 47
67 Generic Early Warning Signals for Program Student Withdrawals: A Complexity Perspective Based on Critical Transitions and Fractals

Authors: Sami Houry

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Complex systems exhibit universal characteristics as they near a tipping point. Among them are common generic early warning signals which precede critical transitions. These signals include: critical slowing down in which the rate of recovery from perturbations decreases over time; an increase in the variance of the state variable; an increase in the skewness of the state variable; an increase in the autocorrelations of the state variable; flickering between different states; and an increase in spatial correlations over time. The presence of the signals has management implications, as the identification of the signals near the tipping point could allow management to identify intervention points. Despite the applications of the generic early warning signals in various scientific fields, such as fisheries, ecology and finance, a review of literature did not identify any applications that address the program student withdrawal problem at the undergraduate distance universities. This area could benefit from the application of generic early warning signals as the program withdrawal rate amongst distance students is higher than the program withdrawal rate at face-to-face conventional universities. This research specifically assessed the generic early warning signals through an intensive case study of undergraduate program student withdrawal at a Canadian distance university. The university is non-cohort based due to its system of continuous course enrollment where students can enroll in a course at the beginning of every month. The assessment of the signals was achieved through the comparison of the incidences of generic early warning signals among students who withdrew or simply became inactive in their undergraduate program of study, the true positives, to the incidences of the generic early warning signals among graduates, the false positives. This was achieved through significance testing. Research findings showed support for the signal pertaining to the rise in flickering which is represented in the increase in the student’s non-pass rates prior to withdrawing from a program; moderate support for the signals of critical slowing down as reflected in the increase in the time a student spends in a course; and moderate support for the signals on increase in autocorrelation and increase in variance in the grade variable. The findings did not support the signal on the increase in skewness of the grade variable. The research also proposes a new signal based on the fractal-like characteristic of student behavior. The research also sought to extend knowledge by investigating whether the emergence of a program withdrawal status is self-similar or fractal-like at multiple levels of observation, specifically the program level and the course level. In other words, whether the act of withdrawal at the program level is also present at the course level. The findings moderately supported self-similarity as a potential signal. Overall, the assessment of the signals suggests that the signals, with the exception with the increase of skewness, could be utilized as a predictive management tool and potentially add one more tool, the fractal-like characteristic of withdrawal, as an additional signal in addressing the student program withdrawal problem.

Keywords: critical transitions, fractals, generic early warning signals, program student withdrawal

Procedia PDF Downloads 174
66 Social Media Governance in UK Higher Education Institutions

Authors: Rebecca Lees, Deborah Anderson

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Whilst the majority of research into social media in education focuses on the applications for teaching and learning environments, this study looks at how such activities can be managed by investigating the current state of social media regulation within UK higher education. Social media has pervaded almost all aspects of higher education; from marketing, recruitment and alumni relations to both distance and classroom-based learning and teaching activities. In terms of who uses it and how it is used, social media is growing at an unprecedented rate, particularly amongst the target market for higher education. Whilst the platform presents opportunities not found in more traditional methods of communication and interaction, such as speed and reach, it also carries substantial risks that come with inappropriate use, lack of control and issues of privacy. Typically, organisations rely on the concept of a social contract to guide employee behaviour to conform to the expectations of that organisation. Yet, where academia and social media intersect applying the notion of a social contract to enforce governance may be problematic; firstly considering the emphasis on treating students as customers with a growing focus on the use and collection of satisfaction metrics; and secondly regarding the notion of academic’s freedom of speech, opinion and discussion, which is a long-held tradition of learning instruction. Therefore the need for sound governance procedures to support expectations over online behaviour is vital, especially when the speed and breadth of adoption of social media activities has in the past outrun organisations’ abilities to manage it. An analysis of the current level of governance was conducted by gathering relevant policies, guidelines and best practice documentation available online via internet search and institutional requests. The documents were then subjected to a content analysis in the second phase of this study to determine the approach taken by institutions to apply such governance. Documentation was separated according to audience, i.e.: applicable to staff, students or all users. Given many of these included guests and visitors to the institution within their scope being easily accessible was considered important. Yet, within the UK only about half of all education institutions had explicit social media governance documentation available online without requiring member access or considerable searching. Where they existed, the majority focused solely on employee activities and tended to be policy based rather than rooted in guidelines or best practices, or held a fallback position of governing online behaviour via implicit instructions within IT and computer regulations. Explicit instructions over expected online behaviours is therefore lacking within UK HE. Given the number of educational practices that now include significant online components, it is imperative that education organisations keep up to date with the progress of social media use. Initial results from the second phase of this study which analyses the content of the governance documentation suggests they require reading levels at or above the target audience, with some considerable variability in length and layout. Further analysis will add to this growing field of investigating social media governance within higher education.

Keywords: governance, higher education, policy, social media

Procedia PDF Downloads 174
65 Automatic Adult Age Estimation Using Deep Learning of the ResNeXt Model Based on CT Reconstruction Images of the Costal Cartilage

Authors: Ting Lu, Ya-Ru Diao, Fei Fan, Ye Xue, Lei Shi, Xian-e Tang, Meng-jun Zhan, Zhen-hua Deng

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Accurate adult age estimation (AAE) is a significant and challenging task in forensic and archeology fields. Attempts have been made to explore optimal adult age metrics, and the rib is considered a potential age marker. The traditional way is to extract age-related features designed by experts from macroscopic or radiological images followed by classification or regression analysis. Those results still have not met the high-level requirements for practice, and the limitation of using feature design and manual extraction methods is loss of information since the features are likely not designed explicitly for extracting information relevant to age. Deep learning (DL) has recently garnered much interest in imaging learning and computer vision. It enables learning features that are important without a prior bias or hypothesis and could be supportive of AAE. This study aimed to develop DL models for AAE based on CT images and compare their performance to the manual visual scoring method. Chest CT data were reconstructed using volume rendering (VR). Retrospective data of 2500 patients aged 20.00-69.99 years were obtained between December 2019 and September 2021. Five-fold cross-validation was performed, and datasets were randomly split into training and validation sets in a 4:1 ratio for each fold. Before feeding the inputs into networks, all images were augmented with random rotation and vertical flip, normalized, and resized to 224×224 pixels. ResNeXt was chosen as the DL baseline due to its advantages of higher efficiency and accuracy in image classification. Mean absolute error (MAE) was the primary parameter. Independent data from 100 patients acquired between March and April 2022 were used as a test set. The manual method completely followed the prior study, which reported the lowest MAEs (5.31 in males and 6.72 in females) among similar studies. CT data and VR images were used. The radiation density of the first costal cartilage was recorded using CT data on the workstation. The osseous and calcified projections of the 1 to 7 costal cartilages were scored based on VR images using an eight-stage staging technique. According to the results of the prior study, the optimal models were the decision tree regression model in males and the stepwise multiple linear regression equation in females. Predicted ages of the test set were calculated separately using different models by sex. A total of 2600 patients (training and validation sets, mean age=45.19 years±14.20 [SD]; test set, mean age=46.57±9.66) were evaluated in this study. Of ResNeXt model training, MAEs were obtained with 3.95 in males and 3.65 in females. Based on the test set, DL achieved MAEs of 4.05 in males and 4.54 in females, which were far better than the MAEs of 8.90 and 6.42 respectively, for the manual method. Those results showed that the DL of the ResNeXt model outperformed the manual method in AAE based on CT reconstruction of the costal cartilage and the developed system may be a supportive tool for AAE.

Keywords: forensic anthropology, age determination by the skeleton, costal cartilage, CT, deep learning

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64 Quantification of Magnetic Resonance Elastography for Tissue Shear Modulus using U-Net Trained with Finite-Differential Time-Domain Simulation

Authors: Jiaying Zhang, Xin Mu, Chang Ni, Jeff L. Zhang

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Magnetic resonance elastography (MRE) non-invasively assesses tissue elastic properties, such as shear modulus, by measuring tissue’s displacement in response to mechanical waves. The estimated metrics on tissue elasticity or stiffness have been shown to be valuable for monitoring physiologic or pathophysiologic status of tissue, such as a tumor or fatty liver. To quantify tissue shear modulus from MRE-acquired displacements (essentially an inverse problem), multiple approaches have been proposed, including Local Frequency Estimation (LFE) and Direct Inversion (DI). However, one common problem with these methods is that the estimates are severely noise-sensitive due to either the inverse-problem nature or noise propagation in the pixel-by-pixel process. With the advent of deep learning (DL) and its promise in solving inverse problems, a few groups in the field of MRE have explored the feasibility of using DL methods for quantifying shear modulus from MRE data. Most of the groups chose to use real MRE data for DL model training and to cut training images into smaller patches, which enriches feature characteristics of training data but inevitably increases computation time and results in outcomes with patched patterns. In this study, simulated wave images generated by Finite Differential Time Domain (FDTD) simulation are used for network training, and U-Net is used to extract features from each training image without cutting it into patches. The use of simulated data for model training has the flexibility of customizing training datasets to match specific applications. The proposed method aimed to estimate tissue shear modulus from MRE data with high robustness to noise and high model-training efficiency. Specifically, a set of 3000 maps of shear modulus (with a range of 1 kPa to 15 kPa) containing randomly positioned objects were simulated, and their corresponding wave images were generated. The two types of data were fed into the training of a U-Net model as its output and input, respectively. For an independently simulated set of 1000 images, the performance of the proposed method against DI and LFE was compared by the relative errors (root mean square error or RMSE divided by averaged shear modulus) between the true shear modulus map and the estimated ones. The results showed that the estimated shear modulus by the proposed method achieved a relative error of 4.91%±0.66%, substantially lower than 78.20%±1.11% by LFE. Using simulated data, the proposed method significantly outperformed LFE and DI in resilience to increasing noise levels and in resolving fine changes of shear modulus. The feasibility of the proposed method was also tested on MRE data acquired from phantoms and from human calf muscles, resulting in maps of shear modulus with low noise. In future work, the method’s performance on phantom and its repeatability on human data will be tested in a more quantitative manner. In conclusion, the proposed method showed much promise in quantifying tissue shear modulus from MRE with high robustness and efficiency.

Keywords: deep learning, magnetic resonance elastography, magnetic resonance imaging, shear modulus estimation

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63 Managing Type 1 Diabetes in College: A Thematic Analysis of Online Narratives Posted on YouTube

Authors: Ekaterina Malova

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Type 1 diabetes (T1D) is a chronic illness requiring immense lifestyle changes to reduce the chance of life-threatening complications. Moving to a college may be the first time for a young adult with T1D to take responsibility for all the aspects of their diabetes care. In addition, people with T1D constantly face stigmatization and discrimination as a result of their health condition, which puts additional pressure on young adults with T1D. Hence, omissions in diabetes self-care often occur during the time of transition to college when both the social and physical environment of young adults changes drastically and contribute to the fact that emerging young adults remain one of the age groups with the highest hemoglobin levels and poorest diabetes control. However, despite potential severe health risks caused by a lack of proper diabetes self-care, little is known about the experiences of emerging adults embarking on a higher education journey as this population. Thus, young adults with type 1 diabetes are a 'forgotten group,' meaning that their experiences are rarely addressed by researchers. Given that self-disclosure and information-seeking can be challenging for individuals with stigmatized illnesses, online platforms like YouTube have become a popular medium of self-disclosure and information-seeking for people living with T1D. Thus, this study aims to provide an analysis of experiences that college students with T1D choose to share with the general public online and explore the nature of information being communicated by college students with T1D to the online community in personal narratives posted on YouTube. A systematic approach was used to retrieve a video sample by searching YouTube with keywords 'type 1 diabetes' and 'college,' with results ordered by relevance. A total of 18 videos were saved. Video lengths ranged from 2 to 28 minutes. The data were coded using NVivo. Video transcripts were coded and analyzed utilizing the thematic analysis method. Three key themes emerged from thematic analysis: 1) Advice, 2) Personal experience, and 3) Things I wish everyone knew about T1D. In addition, Theme 1 was divided into subtopics to differentiate between the most common types of advice: 1) Overcoming stigma and b) Seeking social support. The identified themes indicate that two groups of the population can potentially benefit from watching students’ video testimonies: 1) lay public and 2) other students with T1D. Given that students in the videos reported a lack of T1D education in the lay public, such video narratives can serve important educational purposes and reduce health stigma, while perceived similarity and identification with students in the videos may facilitate the transition of health information to other individuals with T1D and positively affect their diabetes routine. Thus, online video narratives can potentially serve both educational and persuasive purposes, empowering students with T1D to stay in control of T1D while succeeding academically.

Keywords: type 1 diabetes, college students, health communication, transition period

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62 Classification of ECG Signal Based on Mixture of Linear and Non-Linear Features

Authors: Mohammad Karimi Moridani, Mohammad Abdi Zadeh, Zahra Shahiazar Mazraeh

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In recent years, the use of intelligent systems in biomedical engineering has increased dramatically, especially in the diagnosis of various diseases. Also, due to the relatively simple recording of the electrocardiogram signal (ECG), this signal is a good tool to show the function of the heart and diseases associated with it. The aim of this paper is to design an intelligent system for automatically detecting a normal electrocardiogram signal from abnormal one. Using this diagnostic system, it is possible to identify a person's heart condition in a very short time and with high accuracy. The data used in this article are from the Physionet database, available in 2016 for use by researchers to provide the best method for detecting normal signals from abnormalities. Data is of both genders and the data recording time varies between several seconds to several minutes. All data is also labeled normal or abnormal. Due to the low positional accuracy and ECG signal time limit and the similarity of the signal in some diseases with the normal signal, the heart rate variability (HRV) signal was used. Measuring and analyzing the heart rate variability with time to evaluate the activity of the heart and differentiating different types of heart failure from one another is of interest to the experts. In the preprocessing stage, after noise cancelation by the adaptive Kalman filter and extracting the R wave by the Pan and Tampkinz algorithm, R-R intervals were extracted and the HRV signal was generated. In the process of processing this paper, a new idea was presented that, in addition to using the statistical characteristics of the signal to create a return map and extraction of nonlinear characteristics of the HRV signal due to the nonlinear nature of the signal. Finally, the artificial neural networks widely used in the field of ECG signal processing as well as distinctive features were used to classify the normal signals from abnormal ones. To evaluate the efficiency of proposed classifiers in this paper, the area under curve ROC was used. The results of the simulation in the MATLAB environment showed that the AUC of the MLP and SVM neural network was 0.893 and 0.947, respectively. As well as, the results of the proposed algorithm in this paper indicated that the more use of nonlinear characteristics in normal signal classification of the patient showed better performance. Today, research is aimed at quantitatively analyzing the linear and non-linear or descriptive and random nature of the heart rate variability signal, because it has been shown that the amount of these properties can be used to indicate the health status of the individual's heart. The study of nonlinear behavior and dynamics of the heart's neural control system in the short and long-term provides new information on how the cardiovascular system functions, and has led to the development of research in this field. Given that the ECG signal contains important information and is one of the common tools used by physicians to diagnose heart disease, but due to the limited accuracy of time and the fact that some information about this signal is hidden from the viewpoint of physicians, the design of the intelligent system proposed in this paper can help physicians with greater speed and accuracy in the diagnosis of normal and patient individuals and can be used as a complementary system in the treatment centers.

Keywords: neart rate variability, signal processing, linear and non-linear features, classification methods, ROC Curve

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61 How to “Eat” without Actually Eating: Marking Metaphor with Spanish Se and Italian Si

Authors: Cinzia Russi, Chiyo Nishida

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Using data from online corpora (Spanish CREA, Italian CORIS), this paper examines the relatively understudied use of Spanish se and Italian si exemplified in (1) and (2), respectively. (1) El rojo es … el que se come a los demás. ‘The red (bottle) is the one that outshines/*eats the rest.’(2) … ebbe anche la saggezza di mangiarsi tutto il suo patrimonio. ‘… he even had the wisdom to squander/*eat all his estate.’ In these sentences, se/si accompanies the consumption verb comer/mangiare ‘to eat’, without which the sentences would not be interpreted appropriately. This se/si cannot readily be attributed to any of the multiple functions so far identified in the literature: reflexive, ergative, middle/passive, inherent, benefactive, and complete consumptive. In particular, this paper argues against the feasibility of a recent construction-based analysis of sentences like (1) and (2), which situates se/si within a prototype-based network of meanings all deriving from the central meaning of 'COMPLETE CONSUMPTION' (e.g., Alice se comió toda la torta/Alicesi è mangiata tutta la torta ‘John ate the whole cake’). Clearly, the empirical adequacy of such an account is undermined by the fact that the events depicted in the se/si-sentences at issue do not always entail complete consumption because they may lack an INCREMENTAL THEME, the distinguishing property of complete consumption. Alternatively, it is proposed that the sentences under analysis represent instances of verbal METAPHORICAL EXTENSION: se/si represents an explicit marker of this cognitive process, which has independently developed from the complete consumptive se/si, and the meaning extension is captured by the general tenets of Conceptual Metaphor Theory (CMT). Two conceptual domains, Source (DS) and target (DT), are related by similarity, assigning an appropriate metaphorical interpretation to DT. The domains paired here are comer/mangiare (DS) and comerse/mangiarsi (DT). The eating event (DS) involves (a) the physical process of xEATER grinding yFOOD-STUFF into pieces and swallowing it; and (b) the aspect of xEATER savoring yFOOD-STUFF and being nurtured by it. In the physical act of eating, xEATER has dominance and exercises his force over yFOOD-STUFF. This general sense of dominance and force is mapped onto DT and is manifested in the ways exemplified in (1) and (2), and many others. According to CMT, two other properties are observed in each pair of DS & DT. First, DS tends to be more physical and concrete and DT more abstract, and systematic mappings are established between constituent elements in DS and those in DT: xEATER corresponds to the element that destroys and yFOOD-STUFF to the element that is destroyed in DT, as exemplified in (1) and (2). Though the metaphorical extension marker se/si appears by far most frequently with comer/mangiare in the corpora, similar systematic mappings are observed in several other verb pairs, for example, jugar/giocare ‘to play (games)’ and jugarse/giocarsi ‘to jeopardize/risk (life, reputation, etc.)’, perder/perdere ‘to lose (an object)’ and perderse/perdersi ‘to miss out on (an event)’, etc. Thus, this study provides evidence that languages may indeed formally mark metaphor using means available to them.

Keywords: complete consumption value, conceptual metaphor, Italian si/Spanish se, metaphorical extension.

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60 Virtual Reality Applications for Building Indoor Engineering: Circulation Way-Finding

Authors: Atefeh Omidkhah Kharashtomi, Rasoul Hedayat Nejad, Saeed Bakhtiyari

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Circulation paths and indoor connection network of the building play an important role both in the daily operation of the building and during evacuation in emergency situations. The degree of legibility of the paths for navigation inside the building has a deep connection with the perceptive and cognitive system of human, and the way the surrounding environment is being perceived. Human perception of the space is based on the sensory systems in a three-dimensional environment, and non-linearly, so it is necessary to avoid reducing its representations in architectural design as a two-dimensional and linear issue. Today, the advances in the field of virtual reality (VR) technology have led to various applications, and architecture and building science can benefit greatly from these capabilities. Especially in cases where the design solution requires a detailed and complete understanding of the human perception of the environment and the behavioral response, special attention to VR technologies could be a priority. Way-finding in the indoor circulation network is a proper example for such application. Success in way-finding could be achieved if human perception of the route and the behavioral reaction have been considered in advance and reflected in the architectural design. This paper discusses the VR technology applications for the way-finding improvements in indoor engineering of the building. In a systematic review, with a database consisting of numerous studies, firstly, four categories for VR applications for circulation way-finding have been identified: 1) data collection of key parameters, 2) comparison of the effect of each parameter in virtual environment versus real world (in order to improve the design), 3) comparing experiment results in the application of different VR devices/ methods with each other or with the results of building simulation, and 4) training and planning. Since the costs of technical equipment and knowledge required to use VR tools lead to the limitation of its use for all design projects, priority buildings for the use of VR during design are introduced based on case-studies analysis. The results indicate that VR technology provides opportunities for designers to solve complex buildings design challenges in an effective and efficient manner. Then environmental parameters and the architecture of the circulation routes (indicators such as route configuration, topology, signs, structural and non-structural components, etc.) and the characteristics of each (metrics such as dimensions, proportions, color, transparency, texture, etc.) are classified for the VR way-finding experiments. Then, according to human behavior and reaction in the movement-related issues, the necessity of scenario-based and experiment design for using VR technology to improve the design and receive feedback from the test participants has been described. The parameters related to the scenario design are presented in a flowchart in the form of test design, data determination and interpretation, recording results, analysis, errors, validation and reporting. Also, the experiment environment design is discussed for equipment selection according to the scenario, parameters under study as well as creating the sense of illusion in the terms of place illusion, plausibility and illusion of body ownership.

Keywords: virtual reality (VR), way-finding, indoor, circulation, design

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59 Earthquake Preparedness of School Community and E-PreS Project

Authors: A. Kourou, A. Ioakeimidou, S. Hadjiefthymiades, V. Abramea

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During the last decades, the task of engaging governments, communities and citizens to reduce risk and vulnerability of the populations has made variable progress. Experience has demonstrated that lack of awareness, education and preparedness may result in significant material and other losses both on the onset of the disaster. Schools play a vital role in the community and are important elements of values and culture of the society. A proper school education not only teaches children, but also is a key factor in the promotion of a safety culture into the wider community. In Greece School Earthquake Safety Initiative has been undertaken by Earthquake Planning and Protection Ogranization with specific actions (seminars, lectures, guidelines, educational material, campaigns, national or EU projects, drills etc.). The objective of this initiative is to develop disaster-resilient school communities through awareness, self-help, cooperation and education. School preparedness requires the participation of Principals, teachers, students, parents, and competent authorities. Preparation and earthquake readiness involves: a) learning what should be done before, during, and after earthquake; b) doing or preparing to do these things now, before the next earthquake; and c) developing teachers’ and students’ skills to cope efficiently in case of an earthquake. In the above given framework this paper presents the results of a survey aimed to identify the level of education and preparedness of school community in Greece. More specifically, the survey questionnaire investigates issues regarding earthquake protection actions, appropriate attitudes and behaviors during an earthquake and existence of contingency plans at elementary and secondary schools. The questionnaires were administered to Principals and teachers from different regions of the country that attend the EPPO national training project 'Earthquake Safety at Schools'. A closed-form questionnaire was developed for the survey, which contained questions regarding the following: a) knowledge of self protective actions b) existence of emergency planning at home and c) existence of emergency planning at school (hazard mitigation actions, evacuation plan, and performance of drills). Survey results revealed that a high percentage of teachers have taken the appropriate preparedness measures concerning non-structural hazards at schools, emergency school plan and simulation drills every year. In order to improve the action-planning for ongoing school disaster risk reduction, the implementation of earthquake drills, the involvement of students with disabilities and the evaluation of school emergency plans, EPPO participates in E-PreS project. The main objective of this project is to create smart tools which define, simulate and evaluate all hazards emergency steps customized to the unique district and school. The project comes up with a holistic methodology using real-time evaluation involving different categories of actors, districts, steps and metrics. The project is supported by EU Civil Protection Financial Instrument with a duration of two years. Coordinator is the Kapodistrian University of Athens and partners are from four countries; Greece, Italy, Romania and Bulgaria.

Keywords: drills, earthquake, emergency plans, E-PreS project

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58 Confidence Envelopes for Parametric Model Selection Inference and Post-Model Selection Inference

Authors: I. M. L. Nadeesha Jayaweera, Adao Alex Trindade

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In choosing a candidate model in likelihood-based modeling via an information criterion, the practitioner is often faced with the difficult task of deciding just how far up the ranked list to look. Motivated by this pragmatic necessity, we construct an uncertainty band for a generalized (model selection) information criterion (GIC), defined as a criterion for which the limit in probability is identical to that of the normalized log-likelihood. This includes common special cases such as AIC & BIC. The method starts from the asymptotic normality of the GIC for the joint distribution of the candidate models in an independent and identically distributed (IID) data framework and proceeds by deriving the (asymptotically) exact distribution of the minimum. The calculation of an upper quantile for its distribution then involves the computation of multivariate Gaussian integrals, which is amenable to efficient implementation via the R package "mvtnorm". The performance of the methodology is tested on simulated data by checking the coverage probability of nominal upper quantiles and compared to the bootstrap. Both methods give coverages close to nominal for large samples, but the bootstrap is two orders of magnitude slower. The methodology is subsequently extended to two other commonly used model structures: regression and time series. In the regression case, we derive the corresponding asymptotically exact distribution of the minimum GIC invoking Lindeberg-Feller type conditions for triangular arrays and are thus able to similarly calculate upper quantiles for its distribution via multivariate Gaussian integration. The bootstrap once again provides a default competing procedure, and we find that similar comparison performance metrics hold as for the IID case. The time series case is complicated by far more intricate asymptotic regime for the joint distribution of the model GIC statistics. Under a Gaussian likelihood, the default in most packages, one needs to derive the limiting distribution of a normalized quadratic form for a realization from a stationary series. Under conditions on the process satisfied by ARMA models, a multivariate normal limit is once again achieved. The bootstrap can, however, be employed for its computation, whence we are once again in the multivariate Gaussian integration paradigm for upper quantile evaluation. Comparisons of this bootstrap-aided semi-exact method with the full-blown bootstrap once again reveal a similar performance but faster computation speeds. One of the most difficult problems in contemporary statistical methodological research is to be able to account for the extra variability introduced by model selection uncertainty, the so-called post-model selection inference (PMSI). We explore ways in which the GIC uncertainty band can be inverted to make inferences on the parameters. This is being attempted in the IID case by pivoting the CDF of the asymptotically exact distribution of the minimum GIC. For inference one parameter at a time and a small number of candidate models, this works well, whence the attained PMSI confidence intervals are wider than the MLE-based Wald, as expected.

Keywords: model selection inference, generalized information criteria, post model selection, Asymptotic Theory

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