Search results for: shear span over effective depth

Authors: Flordeliza L. Mercado, Teresito G. Aguinaldo, Helen F. Gavino, Victorino T. Taylan

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Most fruits and vegetables are available in large quantities during peak season which are oftentimes marketed at low price and left to rot or fed to farm animals. The lack of efficient storage facilities, and the additional cost and unavailability of small machinery for food processing, results to low price and wastage. Incidentally, processed fresh fruits and vegetables are gaining importance nowadays and health conscious people are also into ‘juicing’. One way to reduce wastage and ensure an all-season availability of crop juices at reasonable costs is to develop equipment for effective extraction of juice. The study was conducted to design, fabricate and evaluate a multi-juice extractor using locally available materials, making it relatively cheaper and affordable for medium-scale enterprises. The study was also conducted to formulate juice blends using extracted juices and calamansi juice at different blending percentage, and evaluate its chemical properties and sensory attributes. Furthermore, the chemical properties of extracted meals were evaluated for future applications. The multi-juice extractor has an overall dimension of 963mm x 300mm x 995mm, a gross weight of 82kg and 5 major components namely; feeding hopper, extracting chamber, juice and meal outlet, transmission assembly, and frame. The machine performance was evaluated based on juice recovery, extraction efficiency, extraction rate, extraction recovery, and extraction loss considering type of crop as apple and carrot with three replications each and was analyzed using T-test. The formulated juice blends were subjected to sensory evaluation and data gathered were analyzed using Analysis of Variance appropriate for Complete Randomized Design. Results showed that the machine’s juice recovery (73.39%), extraction rate (16.40li/hr), and extraction efficiency (88.11%) for apple were significantly higher than for carrot while extraction recovery (99.88%) was higher for apple than for carrot. Extraction loss (0.12%) was lower for apple than for carrot, but was not significantly affected by crop. Based on adding percentage mark-up on extraction cost (Php 2.75/kg), the breakeven weight and payback period for a 35% mark-up is 4,710.69kg and 1.22 years, respectively and for a 50% mark-up, the breakeven weight is 3,492.41kg and the payback period is 0.86 year (10.32 months). Results on the sensory evaluation of juice blends showed that the type of juice significantly influenced all the sensory parameters while the blending percentage including their respective interaction, had no significant effect on all sensory parameters, making the apple-calamansi juice blend more preferred than the carrot-calamansi juice blend in terms of all the sensory parameter. The machine’s performance is higher for apple than for carrot and the cost analysis on the use of the machine revealed that it is financially viable with a payback period of 1.22 years (35% mark-up) and 0.86 year (50% mark-up) for machine cost, generating an income of Php 23,961.60 and Php 34,444.80 per year using 35% and 50% mark-up, respectively. The juice blends were of good qualities based on the values obtained in the chemical analysis and the extracted meal could also be used to produce another product based on the values obtained from proximate analysis.

Keywords: food processing, fruits and vegetables, juice extraction, multi-juice extractor

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Authors: Yu-Hsin Tsai

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A new, mandated county regional plan system has been initiated since 2010 nationwide in Taiwan, with its role situated in-between the policy-led cross-county regional plan and the blueprint-led city plan. This new regional plan contain both urban and rural areas in one single plan, which provides a more complete planning territory, i.e., city region within the county’s jurisdiction, and to be executed and managed effectively by the county government. However, the full picture of its functions and characteristics seems still not totally clear, compared with other levels of plans; either are planning goals and issues that can be most appropriately dealt with at this spatial scale. In addition, the extent to which the inclusion of sustainability ideal and measures to cope with climate change are unclear. Based on the above issues, this study aims to clarify the roles of county regional plan, to analyze the extent to which the measures cope with sustainability, climate change, and forecasted declining population, and the success factors and issues faced in the planning process. The methodology applied includes literature review, plan quality evaluation, and interview with officials of the central and local governments and urban planners involved for all the 23 counties in Taiwan. The preliminary research results show, first, growth management related policies have been widely implemented and expected to have effective impact, including incorporating resources capacity to determine maximum population for the city region as a whole, developing overall vision of urban growth boundary for all the whole city region, prioritizing infill development, and use of architectural land within urbanized area over rural area to cope with urban growth. Secondly, planning-oriented zoning is adopted in urban areas, while demand-oriented planning permission is applied in the rural areas with designated plans. Then, public participation has been evolved to the next level to oversee all of government’s planning and review processes due to the decreasing trust in the government, and development of public forum on the internet etc. Next, fertile agricultural land is preserved to maintain food self-supplied goal for national security concern. More adoption-based methods than mitigation-based methods have been applied to cope with global climate change. Finally, better land use and transportation planning in terms of avoiding developing rail transit stations and corridor in rural area is promoted. Even though many promising, prompt measures have been adopted, however, challenges exist to surround: first, overall urban density, likely affecting success of UGB, or use of rural agricultural land, has not been incorporated, possibly due to implementation difficulties. Second, land-use related measures to mitigating climate change seem less clear and hence less employed. Smart decline has not drawn enough attention to cope with predicted population decrease in the next decade. Then, some reluctance from county’s government to implement county regional plan can be observed vaguely possibly since limits have be set on further development on agricultural land and sensitive areas. Finally, resolving issue on existing illegal factories on agricultural land remains the most challenging dilemma.

Keywords: city region plan, sustainability, global climate change, growth management

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Authors: Kanokwan Chancharoenchai

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Economic growth can be considered as an important element of countries’ development process. For developing countries, like Thailand, to ensure the continuous growth of the economy, the Thai government usually implements various policies to stimulate economic growth. They may take the form of fiscal, monetary, trade, and other policies. Because of these different aspects, understanding factors relating to economic growth could allow the government to introduce the proper plan for the future economic stimulating scheme. Consequently, this issue has caught interest of not only policymakers but also academics. This study, therefore, investigates explanatory variables for economic growth in Thailand from 2005 to 2017 with a total of 52 quarters. The findings would contribute to the field of economic growth and become helpful information to policymakers. The investigation is estimated throughout the production function with non-linear Cobb-Douglas equation. The rate of growth is indicated by the change of GDP in the natural logarithmic form. The relevant factors included in the estimation cover three traditional means of production and implicit effects, such as human capital, international activity and technological transfer from developed countries. Besides, this investigation takes the internal and external instabilities into account as proxied by the unobserved inflation estimation and the real effective exchange rate (REER) of the Thai baht, respectively. The unobserved inflation series are obtained from the AR(1)-ARCH(1) model, while the unobserved REER of Thai baht is gathered from naive OLS-GARCH(1,1) model. According to empirical results, the AR(|2|) equation which includes seven significant variables, namely capital stock, labor, the imports of capital goods, trade openness, the REER of Thai baht uncertainty, one previous GDP, and the world financial crisis in 2009 dummy, presents the most suitable model. The autoregressive model is assumed constant estimator that would somehow cause the unbias. However, this is not the case of the recursive coefficient model from the state space model that allows the transition of coefficients. With the powerful state space model, it provides the productivity or effect of each significant factor more in detail. The state coefficients are estimated based on the AR(|2|) with the exception of the one previous GDP and the 2009 world financial crisis dummy. The findings shed the light that those factors seem to be stable through time since the occurrence of the world financial crisis together with the political situation in Thailand. These two events could lower the confidence in the Thai economy. Moreover, state coefficients highlight the sluggish rate of machinery replacement and quite low technology of capital goods imported from abroad. The Thai government should apply proactive policies via taxation and specific credit policy to improve technological advancement, for instance. Another interesting evidence is the issue of trade openness which shows the negative transition effect along the sample period. This could be explained by the loss of price competitiveness to imported goods, especially under the widespread implementation of free trade agreement. The Thai government should carefully handle with regulations and the investment incentive policy by focusing on strengthening small and medium enterprises.

Keywords: autoregressive model, economic growth, state space model, Thailand

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Authors: David Bakker, Nikki Rickard

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Smartphone apps hold immense potential as mental health and wellbeing tools. Support can be made easily accessible and can be used in real-time while users are experiencing distress. Furthermore, data can be collected to enable machine learning and automated tailoring of support to users. While many apps have been developed for mental health purposes, few have adhered to evidence-based recommendations and even fewer have pursued experimental validation. This paper details the development and experimental evaluation of an app, MoodMission, that aims to provide support for low moods and anxiety, help prevent clinical depression and anxiety disorders, and serve as an adjunct to professional clinical supports. MoodMission was designed to deliver cognitive behavioural therapy for specifically reported problems in real-time, momentary interactions. Users report their low moods or anxious feelings to the app along with a subjective units of distress scale (SUDS) rating. MoodMission then provides a choice of 5-10 short, evidence-based mental health strategies called Missions. Users choose a Mission, complete it, and report their distress again. Automated tailoring, gamification, and in-built data collection for analysis of effectiveness was also included in the app’s design. The development process involved construction of an evidence-based behavioural plan, designing of the app, building and testing procedures, feedback-informed changes, and a public launch. A randomized controlled trial (RCT) was conducted comparing MoodMission to two other apps and a waitlist control condition. Participants completed measures of anxiety, depression, well-being, emotional self-awareness, coping self-efficacy and mental health literacy at the start of their app use and 30 days later. At the time of submission (November 2016) over 300 participants have participated in the RCT. Data analysis will begin in January 2017. At the time of this submission, MoodMission has over 4000 users. A repeated-measures ANOVA of 1390 completed Missions reveals that SUDS (0-10) ratings were significantly reduced between pre-Mission ratings (M=6.20, SD=2.39) and post-Mission ratings (M=4.93, SD=2.25), F(1,1389)=585.86, p < .001, np2=.30. This effect was consistent across both low moods and anxiety. Preliminary analyses of the data from the outcome measures surveys reveal improvements across mental health and wellbeing measures as a result of using the app over 30 days. This includes a significant increase in coping self-efficacy, F(1,22)=5.91, p=.024, np2=.21. Complete results from the RCT in which MoodMission was evaluated will be presented. Results will also be presented from the continuous outcome data being recorded by MoodMission. MoodMission was successfully developed and launched, and preliminary analysis suggest that it is an effective mental health and wellbeing tool. In addition to the clinical applications of MoodMission, the app holds promise as a research tool to conduct component analysis of psychological therapies and overcome restraints of laboratory based studies. The support provided by the app is discrete, tailored, evidence-based, and transcends barriers of stigma, geographic isolation, financial limitations, and low health literacy.

Keywords: anxiety, app, CBT, cognitive behavioural therapy, depression, eHealth, mission, mobile, mood, MoodMission

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Authors: Alon Cohen, Jeffrey Kantor, Shalom Levy

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The use of the audit risk model in auditing has faced limitations and difficulties, leading auditors to rely on a conceptual level of its application. The qualitative approach to assessing risks has resulted in different risk assessments, affecting the quality of audits and decision-making on the adoption of CAATTs. This study aims to investigate risk factors impacting the implementation of the audit risk model and propose a complementary risk-based instrument (KRIs) to form substance risk judgments and mitigate against heightened risk of material misstatement (RMM). The study addresses the question of how risk factors impact the implementation of the audit risk model, improve risk judgments, and aid in the adoption of CAATTs. The study uses a three-stage scale development procedure involving a pretest and subsequent study with two independent samples. The pretest involves an exploratory factor analysis, while the subsequent study employs confirmatory factor analysis for construct validation. Additionally, the authors test the ability of the KRIs to predict audit efforts needed to mitigate against heightened RMM. Data was collected through two independent samples involving 767 participants. The collected data was analyzed using exploratory factor analysis and confirmatory factor analysis to assess scale validity and construct validation. The suggested KRIs, comprising two risk components and seventeen risk items, are found to have high predictive power in determining audit efforts needed to reduce RMM. The study validates the suggested KRIs as an effective instrument for risk assessment and decision-making on the adoption of CAATTs. This study contributes to the existing literature by implementing a holistic approach to risk assessment and providing a quantitative expression of assessed risks. It bridges the gap between intuitive risk evaluation and the theoretical domain, clarifying the mechanism of risk assessments. It also helps improve the uniformity and quality of risk assessments, aiding audit standard-setters in issuing updated guidelines on CAATT adoption. A few limitations and recommendations for future research should be mentioned. First, the process of developing the scale was conducted in the Israeli auditing market, which follows the International Standards on Auditing (ISAs). Although ISAs are adopted in European countries, for greater generalization, future studies could focus on other countries that adopt additional or local auditing standards. Second, this study revealed risk factors that have a material impact on the assessed risk. However, there could be additional risk factors that influence the assessment of the RMM. Therefore, future research could investigate other risk segments, such as operational and financial risks, to bring a broader generalizability to our results. Third, although the sample size in this study fits acceptable scale development procedures and enables drawing conclusions from the body of research, future research may develop standardized measures based on larger samples to reduce the generation of equivocal results and suggest an extended risk model.

Keywords: audit risk model, audit efforts, CAATTs adoption, key risk indicators, sustainability

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Authors: Zuhal Kurt, Meral Kurt, Bilge T. Bal, Kemal Ozkan

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Shade matching and reproduction is the most important element of success in prosthetic dentistry. Until recently, shade matching procedure was implemented by dentists visual perception with the help of shade guides. Since many factors influence visual perception; tooth shade matching using visual devices (shade guides) is highly subjective and inconsistent. Subjective nature of this process has lead to the development of instrumental devices. Nowadays, colorimeters, spectrophotometers, spectroradiometers and digital image analysing systems are used for instrumental shade selection. Instrumental devices have advantages that readings are quantifiable, can obtain more rapidly and simply, objectively and precisely. However, these devices have noticeable drawbacks. For example, translucent structure and irregular surfaces of teeth lead to defects on measurement with these devices. Also between the results acquired by devices with different measurement principles may make inconsistencies. So, its obligatory to search for new methods for dental shade matching process. A computer-aided system device; digital camera has developed rapidly upon today. Currently, advances in image processing and computing have resulted in the extensive use of digital cameras for color imaging. This procedure has a much cheaper process than the use of traditional contact-type color measurement devices. Digital cameras can be taken by the place of contact-type instruments for shade selection and overcome their disadvantages. Images taken from teeth show morphology and color texture of teeth. In last decades, a new method was recommended to compare the color of shade tabs taken by a digital camera using color features. This method showed that visual and computer-aided shade matching systems should be used as concatenated. Recently using methods of feature extraction techniques are based on shape description and not used color information. However, color is mostly experienced as an essential property in depicting and extracting features from objects in the world around us. When local feature descriptors with color information are extended by concatenating color descriptor with the shape descriptor, that descriptor will be effective on visual object recognition and classification task. Therefore, the color descriptor is to be used in combination with a shape descriptor it does not need to contain any spatial information, which leads us to use local histograms. This local color histogram method is remain reliable under variation of photometric changes, geometrical changes and variation of image quality. So, coloring local feature extraction methods are used to extract features, and also the Scale Invariant Feature Transform (SIFT) descriptor used to for shape description in the proposed method. After the combination of these descriptors, the state-of-art descriptor named by Color-SIFT will be used in this study. Finally, the image feature vectors obtained from quantization algorithm are fed to classifiers such as Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Naive Bayes or Support Vector Machines (SVM) to determine label(s) of the visual object category or matching. In this study, SVM are used as classifiers for color determination and shade matching. Finally, experimental results of this method will be compared with other recent studies. It is concluded from the study that the proposed method is remarkable development on computer aided tooth shade determination system.

Keywords: classifiers, color determination, computer-aided system, tooth shade matching, feature extraction

Procedia PDF Downloads 448

Authors: May Bazzi, Shafik Tokmaj, Younes Saberi, Mats Geijer, Tony Jurkiewicz, Patrik Sund, Anna Bjällmark

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Mobile radiography, employing portable X-ray equipment, has become a routine procedure within hospital settings, with chest X-rays in intensive care units standing out as the most prevalent mobile X-ray examinations. This approach is not limited to hospitals alone, as it extends its benefits to imaging patients in various settings, particularly those too frail to be transported, such as elderly care residents in nursing homes. Moreover, the utility of mobile X-ray isn't confined solely to traditional healthcare recipients; it has proven to be a valuable resource for vulnerable populations, including the homeless, drug users, asylum seekers, and patients with multiple co-morbidities. Mobile X-rays reduce patient stress, minimize costly hospitalizations, and offer cost-effective imaging. While studies confirm its reliability, further research is needed, especially regarding image quality. Recent advancements in lightweight equipment with enhanced battery and detector technology provide the potential for nearly handheld radiography. The main aim of this study was to evaluate a new lightweight mobile X-ray system with two different detectors and compare the image quality with a modern stationary system. Methods: A total of 74 images of the chest (chest anterior-posterior (AP) views and chest lateral views) and pelvic/hip region (AP pelvis views, hip AP views, and hip cross-table lateral views) were acquired on a whole-body phantom (Kyotokagaku, Japan), utilizing varying image parameters. These images were obtained using a stationary system - 18 images (Mediel, Sweden), a mobile X-ray system with a second-generation detector - 28 images (FDR D-EVO II; Fujifilm, Japan) and a mobile X-ray system with a third-generation detector - 28 images (FDR D-EVO III; Fujifilm, Japan). Image quality was assessed by visual grading analysis (VGA), which is a method to measure image quality by assessing the visibility and accurate reproduction of anatomical structures within the images. A total of 33 image criteria were used in the analysis. A panel of two experienced radiologists, two experienced radiographers, and two final-term radiographer students evaluated the image quality on a 5-grade ordinal scale using the software Viewdex 3.0 (Viewer for Digital Evaluation of X-ray images, Sweden). Data were analyzed using visual grading characteristics analysis. The dose was measured by the dose-area product (DAP) reported by the respective systems. Results: The mobile X-ray equipment (both detectors) showed significantly better image quality than the stationary equipment for the pelvis, hip AP and hip cross-table lateral images with AUCVGA-values ranging from 0.64-0.92, while chest images showed mixed results. The number of images rated as having sufficient quality for diagnostic use was significantly higher for mobile X-ray generation 2 and 3 compared with the stationary X-ray system. The DAP values were higher for the stationary compared to the mobile system. Conclusions: The new lightweight radiographic equipment had an image quality at least as good as a fixed system at a lower radiation dose. Future studies should focus on clinical images and consider radiographers' viewpoints for a comprehensive assessment.

Keywords: mobile x-ray, visual grading analysis, radiographer, radiation dose

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Authors: Sunil Arora, Anitya Kumar Jena, S. A. Ravi

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India is at the cusp of major reforms in the hydrocarbon sector. Oil and gas sector is highly liberalised to attract private investment and to increase domestic production. Major hydrocarbon Exploration & Production (E&P) activity here have been undertaken by Government owned companies but with easing up and reworking of hydro carbon exploration licensing policies private players have also joined the fray towards achieving energy security for India. Government of India has come up with policy and administrative reforms including Hydrocarbon Exploration and Licensing Policy (HELP), Sagarmala (port-led development with coastal connectivity), and Development of Small Discovered Fields, etc. with the intention to make industry friendly conditions for investment, ease of doing business and reduce gestation period. To harness the potential resources of Deep water and Ultra deep water, High Pressure – High Temperature (HP-HT) regions, Coal Bed Methane (CBM), Shale Hydrocarbons besides Gas Hydrates, participation shall be required from both domestic and international players. Companies engaged in E&P activities in India have traditionally been managing through their captive supply base, but with crude prices under hammer, the need is being felt to outsource non-core activities. This necessitates establishment of a robust support services to cater to E&P Industry, which is currently non-existent to meet the bourgeon challenges. This paper outlines an agenda for creating an Integrated Services Hub (ISH) under Special Economic Zone (SEZ) to facilitate complete gamut of non-core support activities of E&P industry. This responsive and proficient multi-usage facility becomes viable with better resource utilization, economies of scale to offer cost effective services. The concept envisages companies to bring-in their core technical expertise leaving complete hardware peripherals outsourced to this ISH. The Integrated Services Hub, complying with the best in class global standards, shall typically provide following Services under Single Window Solution, but not limited to: a) Logistics including supply base operations, transport of manpower and material, helicopters, offshore supply vessels, warehousing, inventory management, sourcing and procurement activities, international freight forwarding, domestic trucking, customs clearance service etc. b) Trained/Experienced pool of competent Manpower (Technical, Security etc.) will be available for engagement by companies on either short or long term basis depending upon the requirements with provisions of meeting any training requirements. c) Specialized Services through tie-up with global best companies for Crisis Management, Mud/Cement, Fishing, Floating Dry-dock besides provision of Workshop, Repair and Testing facilities, etc. d) Tools and Tackles including drill strings, etc. A pre-established Integrated Services Hub shall facilitate an early start-up of activities with substantial savings in time lines. This model can be replicated at other parts of the world to expedite E&P activities.

Keywords: integrated service hub, India, oil gas, offshore supply base

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Authors: Mapule Maema

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The paper aims to highlight the role that community activism has played in promoting social justice around housing issues in the Western Cape. The Western Cape is one of the largest spatially segregated provinces in South Africa which continues to exhibit grave inequalities between cities, townships and farms. These inequalities cut across intersectional issues such as, race, class, gender, and politics. The main challenges facing marginalized communities in the Western Cape include access to housing, land and basic services. This is not peculiar to only the Western Cape, the entire country is facing similar challenges however the Western Cape is seen as a fasted urbanizing province in the country due to tourism. Various social movements have been formed across the country to counter these challenges, however, this paper focuses on the resilience communities have fostered despite the myriad housing and spatial crisis they are faced with. The paper focuses on the Legal Resource’s Centre’s clients from an informal settlement called Imizamo Yethu based in Hout Bay Valley area. The 18 hectare settlement houses approximately 33600 people. On the 21st July 2017, Hout Bay experienced violent protests following an eviction order passed by the City of Cape Town. The protest was characterized by tensions within the community regarding the super-blocking initiative which aims to establish roads in informal settlements to ensure basic services. Residents against the process argued that there were no proper consultations done to educate them on what this process entailed. Public participation is one of the objectives the municipalities aim to promote however it remains a great challenge. In order to highlight the experiences of the LRC clients in relation to what motivated their involvement in the movement, how it felt their participation, and aspirations, the paper will employ qualitative research methods. Qualitative research methods enable the researcher to get a deeper and nuanced understanding of the social world in the eyes of those who experienced it. It is a flexible methodology that enables one to also understand social processes and the significance they generate. Data will be collected through the use of the World Cafe as a focus group method. The World Café is a simple, effective and flexible format for hosting group dialogue. The steps taken when setting up a World Café includes the following: setting the context (why you are bringing people together and what you want to achieve), create hospitality space (make participants feel at home and free to discuss issues), explore questions that matter, connect diverse perspectives (the opportunity to actively contribute your thinking), listen together for patterns and insights, share collective discoveries and learnings. Secondary data will be used to augment the data collected. Stories of impact will be drawn from the exercises. This paper will contribute to the discourse of sustainable housing and urban development and the research outputs will be disseminated to the public for learning.

Keywords: community activism, influence, social justice, development

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Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

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Accurate cost prediction is essential for effective project management and decision-making in the construction industry. This study aims to develop a cost prediction model for construction projects using Machine Learning techniques and Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The research utilizes a comprehensive dataset containing project cost estimates, actual costs, resource details, and project performance metrics from a road reconstruction project. The methodology involves data preprocessing, feature selection, and the development of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model optimized using PSO. The study investigates the impact of various input features, including cost estimates, resource allocation, and project progress, on the accuracy of cost predictions. The performance of the optimized ANN model is evaluated using metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and R-squared. The results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in predicting project costs, outperforming traditional benchmark models. The feature selection process identifies the most influential variables contributing to cost variations, providing valuable insights for project managers. However, this study has several limitations. Firstly, the model's performance may be influenced by the quality and quantity of the dataset used. A larger and more diverse dataset covering different types of construction projects would enhance the model's generalizability. Secondly, the study focuses on a specific optimization technique (PSO) and a single Machine Learning algorithm (ANN). Exploring other optimization methods and comparing the performance of various ML algorithms could provide a more comprehensive understanding of the cost prediction problem. Future research should focus on several key areas. Firstly, expanding the dataset to include a wider range of construction projects, such as residential buildings, commercial complexes, and infrastructure projects, would improve the model's applicability. Secondly, investigating the integration of additional data sources, such as economic indicators, weather data, and supplier information, could enhance the predictive power of the model. Thirdly, exploring the potential of ensemble learning techniques, which combine multiple ML algorithms, may further improve cost prediction accuracy. Additionally, developing user-friendly interfaces and tools to facilitate the adoption of the proposed cost prediction model in real-world construction projects would be a valuable contribution to the industry. The findings of this study have significant implications for construction project management, enabling proactive cost estimation, resource allocation, budget planning, and risk assessment, ultimately leading to improved project performance and cost control. This research contributes to the advancement of cost prediction techniques in the construction industry and highlights the potential of Machine Learning and PSO in addressing this critical challenge. However, further research is needed to address the limitations and explore the identified future research directions to fully realize the potential of ML-based cost prediction models in the construction domain.

Keywords: cost prediction, construction projects, machine learning, artificial neural networks, particle swarm optimization, project management, feature selection, road reconstruction

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Authors: Elena Cangelosi, Wayne Beyea

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This research expands the resilience planning literature by exploring the barriers and enablers to climate and health adaptation planning for small urban, coastal Great Lakes communities. With funding from the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Climate Ready City and States Initiative, this research took place during a 3-year pilot intervention project which integrates urban planning and public health. The project used the CDC’s Building Resilience Against Climate Effects (BRACE) framework to prevent or reduce the human health impacts from climate change in Marquette County, Michigan. Using a deliberation with the analysis planning process, interviews, focus groups, and community meetings with over 25 stakeholder groups and over 100 participants identified the area’s climate-related health concerns and adaptation interventions to address those concerns. Marquette County, on the shores of Lake Superior, the largest of the Great Lakes, was selected for the project based on their existing adaptive capacity and proactive approach to climate adaptation planning. With Marquette County as the context, this study fills a gap in the adaptation literature, which currently heavily emphasizes large-urban or agriculturally-based rural areas, and largely neglects small urban areas. This research builds on the qualitative case-study, survey, and interview approach established by previous researchers on contextual barriers and enablers for adaptation planning. This research uses a case study approach, including surveys and interviews of public officials, to identify the barriers and enablers for climate and health adaptation planning for small-urban areas within a large, non-agricultural, Great Lakes county. The researchers hypothesize that the barriers and enablers will, in some cases, overlap those found in other contexts, but in many cases, will be unique to a rural setting. The study reveals that funding, staff capacity, and communication across a large, rural geography act as the main barriers, while strong networks and collaboration, interested leaders, and community interest through a strong human-land connection act as the primary enablers. Challenges unique to rural areas are revealed, including weak opportunities for grant funding, large geographical distances, communication challenges with an aging and remote population, and the out-migration of education residents. Enablers that may be unique to rural contexts include strong collaborative relationships across jurisdictions for regional work and strong connections between residents and the land. As the factors that enable and prevent climate change planning are highly contextual, understanding, and appropriately addressing the unique factors at play for small-urban communities is key for effective planning in those areas. By identifying and addressing the barriers and enablers to climate and health adaptation planning for small-urban, coastal areas, this study can help Great Lakes communities appropriately build resilience to the adverse impacts of climate change. In addition, this research expands the breadth of research and understanding of the challenges and opportunities planners confront in the face of climate change.

Keywords: climate adaptation and resilience, climate change adaptation, climate change and urban resilience, governance and urban resilience

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Authors: Jagmeet S. Kanwal, Julia F. Langley

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Music can heal the body, but a mechanistic understanding of this phenomenon is lacking. This study explores the effects of music presentation on neurologic and physiologic responses leading to metabolic changes in the human body. The mind and body co-exist in a corporeal entity and within this framework, sickness ensues when the mind-body balance goes awry. It is further hypothesized that music has the capacity to directly reset this balance. Two lines of inquiry taken together can provide a mechanistic understanding of this phenomenon 1) Empirical evidence for a sound-sensitive pressure sensor system in the body, and 2) The notion of a “healing center” within the brain that is activated by specific patterns of sounds. From an acoustics perspective, music is spatially distributed as pressure waves ranging from a few cm to several meters in wavelength. These waves interact and propagate in three-dimensions in unique ways, depending on the wavelength. Furthermore, music creates dynamically changing wave-fronts. Frequencies between 200 Hz and 1 kHz generate wavelengths that range from 5'6" to 1 foot. These dimensions are in the range of the body size of most people making it plausible that these pressure waves can geometrically interact with the body surface and create distinct patterns of pressure stimulation across the skin surface. For humans, short wavelength, high frequency (> 200 Hz) sounds are best received via cochlear receptors. For low frequency (< 200 Hz), long wavelength sound vibrations, however, the whole body may act as an ideal receiver. A vast array of highly sensitive pressure receptors (Pacinian corpuscles) is present just beneath the skin surface, as well as in the tendons, bones, several organs in the abdomen, and the sexual organs. Per the available empirical evidence, these receptors contribute to music perception by allowing the whole body to function as a sound receiver, and knowledge of how they function is essential to fully understanding the therapeutic effect of music. Neuroscientific studies have established that music stimulates the limbic system that can trigger states of anxiety, arousal, fear, and other emotions. These emotional states of brain activity play a crucial role in filtering top-down feedback from thoughts and bottom-up sensory inputs to the autonomic system, which automatically regulates bodily functions. Music likely exerts its pleasurable and healing effects by enhancing functional and effective connectivity and feedback mechanisms between brain regions that mediate reward, autonomic, and cognitive processing. Stimulation of pressure receptors under the skin by low-frequency music-induced sensations can activate multiple centers in the brain, including the amygdala, the cingulate cortex, and nucleus accumbens. Melodies in music in the low (< 600 Hz) frequency range may augment auditory inputs after convergence of the pressure-sensitive inputs from the vagus nerve onto emotive processing regions within the limbic system. The integration of music-generated auditory and somato-visceral inputs may lead to a synergistic input to the brain that promotes healing. Thus, music can literally heal humans through “touch” as it energizes the brain’s autonomic system for restoring homeostasis.

Keywords: acoustics, brain, music healing, pressure receptors

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Authors: Sami El Khatib, Agnès Leroux, Jean-Louis Merlin, François Guillemin, Marie-Ange D’Hallewin

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Photodynamic therapy (PDT) is a treatment modality based on the cytotoxic effect occurring on the target tissues by interaction of a photosensitizer with light in the presence of oxygen. One of the major advances in PDT can be attributed to the use of topical aminolevulinic (ALA) to induce Protoporphyrin IX (PpIX) for the treatment of early stage cancers as well as diagnosis. ALA is a precursor of the heme synthesis pathway. Locally delivered to the target tissue ALA overcomes the negative feedback exerted by heme and promotes the transient formation of PpIX in situ to reach critical effective levels in cells and tissue. Whereas early steps of the heme pathway occur in the cytosol, PpIX synthesis is shown to be held in the mitochondrial membranes and PpIX fluorescence is expected to accumulate in close vicinity of the initial building site and to progressively diffuse to the neighboring cytoplasmic compartment or other lipophylic organelles. PpIX is known to be highly reactive and will be degraded when irradiated with light. PpIX photobleaching is believed to be governed by a singlet oxygen mediated mechanism in the presence of oxidized amino acids and proteins. PpIX photobleaching and subsequent spectral phototransformation were described widely in tumor cells incubated in vitro with ALA solution, or ex vivo in human and porcine mucosa superfused with hexylaminolevulinate (hALA). PpIX photobleaching was also studied in vivo, using animal models such as normal or tumor mice skin and orthotopic rat bladder model. Hexyl aminolevulinate a more potent lipophilic derivative of ALA was proposed as an adjunct to standard cystoscopy in the fluorescence diagnosis of bladder cancer and other malignancies. We have previously reported the effectiveness of hALA mediated PDT of rat bladder cancer. Although normal and tumor bladder epithelium exhibit similar fluorescence intensities after intravesical instillation of two hALA concentrations (8 and 16 mM), the therapeutic response at 8mM and 20J/cm2 was completely different from the one observed at 16mM irradiated with the same light dose. Where the tumor is destroyed, leaving the underlying submucosa and muscle intact after an 8 mM instillation, 16mM sensitization and subsequent illumination results in the complete destruction of the underlying bladder wall but leaves the tumor undamaged. The object of the current study is to try to unravel the underlying mechanism for this apparent contradiction. PpIX extraction showed identical amounts of photosensitizer in tumor bearing bladders at both concentrations. Photobleaching experiments revealed mono-exponential decay curves in both situations but with a two times faster decay constant in case of 16mM bladders. Fluorescence microscopy shows an identical fluorescence pattern for normal bladders at both concentrations and tumor bladders at 8mM with bright spots. Tumor bladders at 16 mM exhibit a more diffuse cytoplasmic fluorescence distribution. The different response to PDT with regard to the initial pro-drug concentration can thus be attributed to the different cellular localization.

Keywords: bladder cancer, hexyl-aminolevulinate, photobleaching, confocal fluorescence microscopy

Procedia PDF Downloads 408

Authors: Alex J. Summers, Jasmine P. Devadhasan, Douglas Montgomery, Brittany Fischer, Jian Gu, Frederic Zenhausern

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Immunoassays have been utilized for several applications, including the detection of pathogens. Our laboratory is in the development of a tier 1 biothreat panel utilizing Vertical Flow Assay (VFA) technology for simultaneous detection of pathogens and toxins. One method of manufacturing VFA membranes is with non-contact piezoelectric dispensing, which provides advantages, such as low-volume and rapid dispensing without compromising the structural integrity of antibody or substrate. Challenges of this processinclude premature discontinuation of dispensing and misaligned spotting. Preliminary data revealed the Yp 11C7 mAb (11C7)reagent to exhibit a large angle of failure during printing which may have contributed to variable printing outputs. A Design of Experiment (DOE) was executed using this reagent to investigate the effects of hydrostatic pressure and reagent concentration on microarray printing outputs. A Nano-plotter 2.1 (GeSIM, Germany) was used for printing antibody reagents ontonitrocellulose membrane sheets in a clean room environment. A spotting plan was executed using Spot-Front-End software to dispense volumes of 11C7 reagent (20-50 droplets; 1.5-5 mg/mL) in a 6-test spot array at 50 target membrane locations. Hydrostatic pressure was controlled by raising the Pressure Compensation Vessel (PCV) above or lowering it below our current working level. It was hypothesized that raising or lowering the PCV 6 inches would be sufficient to cause either liquid accumulation at the tip or discontinue droplet formation. After aspirating 11C7 reagent, we tested this hypothesis under stroboscope.75% of the effective raised PCV height and of our hypothesized lowered PCV height were used. Humidity (55%) was maintained using an Airwin BO-CT1 humidifier. The number and quality of membranes was assessed after staining printed membranes with dye. The droplet angle of failure was recorded before and after printing to determine a “stroboscope score” for each run. The DOE set was analyzed using JMP software. Hydrostatic pressure and reagent concentration had a significant effect on the number of membranes output. As hydrostatic pressure was increased by raising the PCV 3.75 inches or decreased by lowering the PCV -4.5 inches, membrane output decreased. However, with the hydrostatic pressure closest to equilibrium, our current working level, membrane output, reached the 50-membrane target. As the reagent concentration increased from 1.5 to 5 mg/mL, the membrane output also increased. Reagent concentration likely effected the number of membrane output due to the associated dispensing volume needed to saturate the membranes. However, only hydrostatic pressure had a significant effect on stroboscope score, which could be due to discontinuation of dispensing, and thus the stroboscope check could not find a droplet to record. Our JMP predictive model had a high degree of agreement with our observed results. The JMP model predicted that dispensing the highest concentration of 11C7 at our current PCV working level would yield the highest number of quality membranes, which correlated with our results. Acknowledgements: This work was supported by the Chemical Biological Technologies Directorate (Contract # HDTRA1-16-C-0026) and the Advanced Technology International (Contract # MCDC-18-04-09-002) from the Department of Defense Chemical and Biological Defense program through the Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA).

Keywords: immunoassay, microarray, design of experiment, piezoelectric dispensing

Procedia PDF Downloads 183

Authors: Sairah Bashir, Liu Yang, John Liggat, James Thomason

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Glass fibre is currently used as reinforcement in over 90% of all fibre-reinforced composites produced. The high rigidity and chemical resistance of these composites are required for optimum performance but unfortunately results in poor recyclability; when such materials are no longer fit for purpose, they are frequently deposited in landfill sites. Recycling technologies, for example, thermal treatment, can be employed to address this issue; temperatures typically between 450 and 600 °C are required to allow degradation of the rigid polymeric matrix and subsequent extraction of fibrous reinforcement. However, due to the severe thermal conditions utilised in the recycling procedure, glass fibres become too weak for reprocessing in second-life composite materials. In addition, more stringent legislation is being put in place regarding disposal of composite waste, and so it is becoming increasingly important to develop long-term recycling solutions for such materials. In particular, the development of a cost-effective method to regenerate strength of thermally recycled glass fibres will have a positive environmental effect as a reduced volume of composite material will be destined for landfill. This research study has demonstrated the positive impact of sodium hydroxide (NaOH) and potassium hydroxide (KOH) solution, prepared at relatively mild temperatures and at concentrations of 1.5 M and above, on the strength of heat-treated glass fibres. As a result, alkaline treatments can potentially be implemented to glass fibres that are recycled from composite waste to allow their reuse in second-life materials. The optimisation of the strength recovery process is being conducted by varying certain reaction parameters such as molarity of alkaline solution and treatment time. It is believed that deep V-shaped surface flaws exist commonly on severely damaged fibre surfaces and are effectively removed to form smooth, U-shaped structures following alkaline treatment. Although these surface flaws are believed to be present on glass fibres they have not in fact been observed, however, they have recently been discovered in this research investigation through analytical techniques such as AFM (atomic force microscopy) and SEM (scanning electron microscopy). Reaction conditions such as molarity of alkaline solution affect the degree of etching of the glass fibre surface, and therefore the extent to which fibre strength is recovered. A novel method in determining the etching rate of glass fibres after alkaline treatment has been developed, and the data acquired can be correlated with strength. By varying reaction conditions such as alkaline solution temperature and molarity, the activation energy of the glass etching process and the reaction order can be calculated respectively. The promising results obtained from NaOH and KOH treatments have opened an exciting route to strength regeneration of thermally recycled glass fibres, and the optimisation of the alkaline treatment process is being continued in order to produce recycled fibres with properties that match original glass fibre products. The reuse of such glass filaments indicates that closed-loop recycling of glass fibre reinforced composite (GFRC) waste can be achieved. In fact, the development of a closed-loop recycling process for GFRC waste is already underway in this research study.

Keywords: glass fibers, glass strengthening, glass structure and properties, surface reactions and corrosion

Procedia PDF Downloads 257

Authors: Diana Santiago, Tania Lisboa, Sophie Lee, Alexander P. Demos, Monica C. S. Vasconcelos

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Memorization has long been recognized as an arduous and anxiety-evoking task for musicians, and yet, it is an essential aspect of performance. Research shows that musicians are often not taught how to memorize. While memorization and practice strategies of professionals have been studied, little research has been done to examine how student musicians learn to practice and memorize music in different cultural settings. We present the process of developing and testing a questionnaire of music memorization and musical practice for student musicians in the UK and Brazil. A survey was developed for a cross-cultural research project aiming at examining how young orchestral musicians (aged 7–18 years) in different learning environments and cultures engage in instrumental practice and memorization. The questionnaire development included members of a UK/US/Brazil research team of music educators and performance science researchers. A pool of items was developed for each aspect of practice and memorization identified, based on literature, personal experiences, and adapted from existing questionnaires. Item development took the varying levels of cognitive and social development of the target populations into consideration. It also considered the diverse target learning environments. Items were initially grouped in accordance with a single underlying construct/behavior. The questionnaire comprised three sections: a demographics section, a section on practice (containing 29 items), and a section on memorization (containing 40 items). Next, the response process was considered and a 5-point Likert scale ranging from ‘always’ to ‘never’ with a verbal label and an image assigned to each response option was selected, following effective questionnaire design for children and youths. Finally, a pilot study was conducted with young orchestral musicians from diverse learning environments in Brazil and the United Kingdom. Data collection took place in either one-to-one or group settings to facilitate the participants. Cognitive interviews were utilized to establish response process validity by confirming the readability and accurate comprehension of the questionnaire items or highlighting the need for item revision. Internal reliability was investigated by measuring the consistency of the item groups using the statistical test Cronbach’s alpha. The pilot study successfully relied on the questionnaire to generate data about the engagement of young musicians of different levels and instruments, across different learning and cultural environments, in instrumental practice and memorization. Interaction analysis of the cognitive interviews undertaken with these participants, however, exposed the fact that certain items, and the response scale, could be interpreted in multiple ways. The questionnaire text was, therefore, revised accordingly. The low Cronbach’s Alpha scores of many item groups indicated another issue with the original questionnaire: its low level of internal reliability. Several reasons for each poor reliability can be suggested, including the issues with item interpretation revealed through interaction analysis of the cognitive interviews, the small number of participants (34), and the elusive nature of the construct in question. The revised questionnaire measures 78 specific behaviors or opinions. It can be seen to provide an efficient means of gathering information about the engagement of young musicians in practice and memorization on a large scale.

Keywords: cross-cultural, memorization, practice, questionnaire, young musicians

Procedia PDF Downloads 123

Authors: Purna Bahadur Lamichhane

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Education planning and management are foundational pillars for developing effective educational systems. However, in many educational contexts, especially in developing nations, technology-enabled management is still emerging. In such settings, manual-based systems, where instructions and guidelines are physically documented, remain central to educational planning and management. This paper examines the effectiveness, challenges, and potential of manual-based education planning systems in fostering structured, reliable, and adaptable management frameworks. The objective of this study is to explore how a manual-based approach can successfully guide administrators, educators, and policymakers in delivering high-quality education. By using structured, accessible instructions, this approach serves as a blueprint for educational governance, offering clear, actionable steps to achieve institutional goals. Through an analysis of case studies from various regions, the paper identifies key strategies for planning school schedules, managing resources, and monitoring academic and administrative performance without relying on automated systems. The findings underscore the significance of organized documentation, standard operating procedures, and comprehensive manuals that establish uniformity and maintain educational standards across institutions. With a manual-based approach, management can remain flexible, responsive, and user-friendly, especially in environments where internet access and digital literacy are limited. Moreover, it allows for localization, where instructions can be tailored to the unique cultural and socio-economic contexts of the community, thereby increasing relevancy and ownership among local stakeholders. This paper also highlights several challenges associated with manual-based education management. Manual systems often require significant time and human resources for maintenance and updating, potentially leading to inefficiencies and inconsistencies over time. Furthermore, manual records can be susceptible to loss, damage, and limited accessibility, which may affect decision-making and institutional memory. There is also the risk of siloed information, where crucial data resides with specific individuals rather than being accessible across the organization. However, with proper training and regular oversight, many of these limitations can be mitigated. The study further explores the potential for hybrid approaches, combining manual planning with selected digital tools for record-keeping, reporting, and analytics. This transitional strategy can enable schools and educational institutions to gradually embrace digital solutions without discarding the familiarity and reliability of manual instructions. In conclusion, this paper advocates for a balanced, context-sensitive approach to education planning and management. While digital systems hold the potential to streamline processes, manual-based systems offer resilience, inclusivity, and adaptability for institutions where technology adoption may be constrained. Ultimately, by reinforcing the importance of structured, detailed manuals and instructional guides, educational institutions can build robust management frameworks that facilitate both short-term successes and long-term growth in their educational mission. This research aims to provide a reference for policymakers, educators, and administrators seeking practical, low-cost, and adaptable solutions for sustainable educational planning and management.

Keywords: educatoin, planning, management, manual

Procedia PDF Downloads 19

Authors: Jonathan Nii Laryea Ashong, Samuel Opare

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Current sustainable cities debate focuses on the formidable problems for the Ghana’s largest urban and rural agglomerations, the majority of all urban dwellers continue to reside in far smaller urban settlements. It is estimated that by year 2030, almost all the Ghana’s population growth will likely be intense in urban areas including Nkawkaw in the Kwahu West Municipality of Ghana. Nkawkaw is situated on the road and former railway between Accra and Kumasi, and lies about halfway between these cities. It is also connected by road to Koforidua and Konongo. According to the 2013 census, Nkawkaw has a settlement population of 61,785. Many international agencies, government and private architectures’ are been asked to adequately recognize the naming of streets and property addressing system among the 170 districts across Ghana. The naming of streets and numbering of properties is to assist Metropolitan, Municipal and District Assemblies to manage the processes for establishing coherent address system nationally. Street addressing in the Nkawkaw in the Kwahu West Municipality which makes it possible to identify the location of a parcel of land, public places or dwellings on the ground based on system of names and numbers, yet agreement on how to progress towards it remains elusive. Therefore, reliable and effective development control for proper street naming and property addressing systems are required. The Intelligent Addressing (IA) technology from the UK is being used to name streets and properties in Ghana. The intelligent addressing employs the technique of unique property Reference Number and the unique street reference number which would transform national security and other service providers’ ability to respond rapidly to distress calls. Where name change is warranted following the review of existing streets names, the Physical Planning Department (PPDs) shall, in consultation with the relevant traditional authorities and community leadership (or relevant major stakeholders), select a street name in accordance with the provisions of the policy and the processes outlined for street name change for new development. In the case of existing streets with no names, the respective PPDs shall, in consultation with the relevant traditional authorities and community leadership (or relevant major stakeholders), select a street name in accordance with the requirements set out in municipality. Naming of access ways proposed for new developments shall be done at the time of developing sector layouts (subdivision maps) for the designated areas. In the case of private gated developments, the developer shall submit the names of the access ways as part of the plan and other documentation forwarded to the Municipal District Assembly for approval. The names shall be reviewed first by the PPD to avoid duplication and to ensure conformity to the required standards before submission to the Assembly’s Statutory Planning Committee for approval. The Kwahu West Municipality is supposed to be self-sustaining, providing basic services to inhabitants as a result of proper planning layouts, street naming and property addressing system that prevail in the area. The implications of these future projections are discussed.

Keywords: Nkawkaw, Kwahu west municipality, street naming, property, addressing system

Procedia PDF Downloads 551

Authors: Ivana Cabarkapa, Zorica Tomicic, Olivera Duragic

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Antimicrobial resistance represents one of the major challenges facing humanity in the last decades. Increasing antibiotic-resistant pathogens indicates the need for the development of alternative antibacterial drugs and new treatment strategies. One of the innovative emerging treatments in overcoming multidrug-resistant pathogens certainly represents the inhibition anti-quorum sensing system. For most of the food-borne pathogens, the expression of the virulence depends on their capability communication with other members of the population by means of quorum sensing (QS). QS represents a specific way of bacterial intercellular communication, which enabled owing to their ability to detect and to respond to cell population density by gene regulation. QS mechanisms are responsible for controls the pathogenesis, virulence luminescence, motility, sporulation and biofilm formation of many organisms by regulating gene expression. Therefore, research in this field is being an attractive target for the development of new natural antibacterial agents. Anti-QS compounds are known to have the ability to prohibit bacterial pathogenicity. Considering the importance of quorum sensing during bacterial pathogenesis, this research has been focused on evaluation anti - QS properties of four essential oils (EOs) Origanum heracleoticum, Origanum vulgare, Thymus vulgare, and Thymus serpyllum, using biomonitor strain of Chromobacterium violaceum CV026. Tests conducted on Luria Bertani agar supplemented with N hexanol DL homoserine lacton (HHL) 10µl/50ml of agar. The anti-QS potential of the EOs was assayed in a range of concentrations of 200 – 0.39 µl/ml using the disc diffusion method. EOs of Th. vulgaris and T. serpyllum were exhibited anti-QS activity indicated by a non- pigmented ring with a dilution-dependent manner. The lowest dilution of EOs T. vulgaris and T. serpyllum in which they exhibited visually detectable inhibition of violacein synthesis was 6.25 µl/ml for both tested EOs. EOs of O. heracleoticum and O. vulgare were displayed different active principles, i.e., antimicrobial activity indicated by the inner clear ring and anti-QS activity indicated by the outer non-pigmented ring, in a concentration-dependent manner. The lowest dilution of EOs of O. heracleoticum and O. vulgare in which exhibited visually detectable inhibition of violacein synthesis was 1.56 and 3.25 µl/ml, respectively. Considering that, the main constituents of the tested EOs represented by monoterpenes (carvacrol, thymol, γ-terpinene, and p-cymene), anti - QS properties of tested EOs can be mainly attributed to their activity. In particular, from the scientific literature, carvacrol and thymol show a sub-inhibitory effect against foodborne pathogens. Previous studies indicated that sub-lethal concentrations of carvacrol reduced the mobility of bacteria due to the ability of interference using QS mechanism between the bacterial cells, and thereby reducing the ability of biofilm formation The precise mechanism by which carvacrol inhibits biofilm formation is still not fully understood. Our results indicated that EOs displayed different active principles, i.e., antimicrobial activity indicated by the inner clear ring and anti-QS activity indicated by an outer non- pigmented ring with visually detectable inhibition of violacein. Preliminary results suggest that EOs represent a promising alternative for effective control of the emergence and spread of resistant pathogens.

Keywords: anti-quorum sensing activity, Chromobacterium violaceum, essential oils, violacein

Procedia PDF Downloads 138

Authors: Nuno Biga

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The integration of serious games with gamification in management education and training has gained significant importance in recent years as innovative strategies are sought to improve target audience engagement and learning outcomes. This research builds on the author's previous work in this field and presents a case study that evaluates the ex-post impact of a sample of applications of the BIGAMES management simulator in the training of top managers from various hospital institutions. The methodology includes evaluating the reaction of participants after each edition of BIGAMES Accident & Emergency (A&E) carried out over the last 3 years, as well as monitoring the career path of a significant sample of participants and their feedback more than a year after their experience with this simulator. Control groups will be set up, according to the type of role their members held when they took part in the BIGAMES A&E simulator: Administrators, Clinical Directors and Nursing Directors. Former participants are invited to answer a questionnaire structured for this purpose, where they are asked, among other questions, about the importance and impact that the BIGAMES A&E simulator has had on their professional activity. The research methodology also includes an exhaustive literature review, focusing on empirical studies in the field of education and training in management and business that investigate the effectiveness of gamification and serious games in improving learning, team collaboration, critical thinking, problem-solving skills and overall performance, with a focus on training contexts in the health sector. The results of the research carried out show that gamification and serious games that simulate real scenarios, such as Business Interactive Games - BIGAMES©, can significantly increase the motivation and commitment of participants, stimulating the development of transversal skills, the mobilization of group synergies and the acquisition and retention of knowledge through interactive user-centred scenarios. Individuals who participate in game-based learning series show a higher level of commitment to learning because they find these teaching methods more enjoyable and interactive. This research study aims to demonstrate that, as executive education and training programs develop to meet the current needs of managers, gamification and serious games stand out as effective means of bridging the gap between traditional teaching methods and modern educational and training requirements. To this end, this research evaluates the medium/long-term effects of gamified learning on the professional performance of participants in the BIGAMES simulator applied to healthcare. Based on the conclusions of the evaluation of the effectiveness of training using gamification and taking into account the results of the opinion poll of former A&E participants, this research study proposes an integrated approach for the transversal application of the A&E Serious Game in various educational contexts, covering top management (traditionally the target audience of BIGAMES A&E), middle and operational management in healthcare institutions (functional area heads and professionals with career development potential), as well as higher education in medicine and nursing courses. The integrated solution called “BIGAMES A&E plus”, developed as part of this research, includes the digitalization of key processes and the incorporation of AI.

Keywords: artificial intelligence (AI), executive training, gamification, higher education, management simulators, serious games (SG), training effectiveness

Procedia PDF Downloads 15

Authors: Mohammed S. Razali, Kamel Khimeche, Dahah Hichem, Ammar Boudjellal, Djamel E. Kaderi, Nourddine Ramdani

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The use of additive manufacturing technologies has revolutionized various aspects of our daily lives. In particular, 3D printing has greatly advanced biomedical applications. While fused filament fabrication (FFF) technologies have made it easy to produce or prototype various medical devices, it is crucial to minimize the risk of contamination. New materials with antibacterial properties, such as those containing compounded silver nanoparticles, have emerged on the market. In a previous study, we prepared a newly sintered seashell filler (SSh) from bio-based seashells found along the Mediterranean coast using a suitable heat treatment process. We then prepared a series of polylactic acid (PLA) and polybutylene succinate (PBS) biocomposites filled with these SSh particles using a melt mixing technique with a twin-screw extruder to use them as feedstock filaments for 3D printing. The study consisted of two parts: evaluating the antibacterial activity of newly prepared biocomposites made of PLA and PBS reinforced with a sintered seashell in the first part and experimental and modeling analysis of the non-isothermal crystallization kinetics of these biocomposites in the second part. In the first part, the bactericidal activity of the biocomposites against three different bacteria, including Gram-negative bacteria such as (E. coli and Pseudomonas aeruginosa), as well as Gram-positive bacteria such as (Staphylococcus aureus), was examined. The PLA-based biocomposite containing 20 wt.% of SSh particles exhibited an inhibition zone with radial diameters of 8mm and 6mm against E. coli and Pseudo. Au, respectively, while no bacterial activity was observed against Staphylococcus aureus. In the second part, the focus was on investigating the effect of the sintered seashell filler particles on the non-isothermal crystallization kinetics of PLA and PBS 3D-printing composite materials. The objective was to understand the impact of the filler particles on the crystallization mechanism of both PLA and PBS during the cooling process of a melt-extruded filament in (FFF) to manage the dimensional accuracy and mechanical properties of the final printed part. We conducted a non-isothermal melt crystallization kinetic study of a series of PLA-SS and PBS-SS composites using differential scanning calorimetry at various cooling rates. We analyzed the obtained kinetic data using different crystallization kinetic models such as modified Avrami, Ozawa, and Mo's methods. Dynamic mode describes the relative crystallinity as a function of temperature; it found that time half crystallinity (t1/2) of neat PLA decreased from 17 min to 7.3 min for PLA+5 SSh and the (t1/2) of virgin PBS was reduced from 3.5 min to 2.8 min for the composite containing 5wt.% of SSh. We found that the coated SS particles with stearic acid acted as nucleating agents and had a nucleation activity, as observed through polarized optical microscopy. Moreover, we evaluated the effective energy barrier of the non-isothermal crystallization process using the Iso conversional methods of Flynn-Wall-Ozawa (F-W-O) and Kissinger-Akahira-Sunose (K-A-S). The study provides significant insights into the crystallization behavior of PLA and PBS biocomposites.

Keywords: avrami model, bio-based reinforcement, dsc, gram-negative bacteria, gram-positive bacteria, isoconversional methods, non-isothermal crystallization kinetics, poly(butylene succinate), poly(lactic acid), antbactirial activity

Procedia PDF Downloads 81

Authors: Wen-Chung Chiang, Lun-Jou Lo, Hsiu-Hsia Lin

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This study aimed to improve the evaluation of facial symmetry, which is crucial for planning and assessing outcomes in orthognathic surgery (OGS). Facial symmetry plays a key role in both aesthetic and functional aspects of OGS, making its accurate evaluation essential for optimal surgical results. To address the limitations of traditional methods, a different approach was developed, combining three-dimensional (3D) facial contour mapping with hyperdimensional (HD) computing to enhance precision and efficiency in symmetry assessments. The study was conducted at Chang Gung Memorial Hospital, where data were collected from 2018 to 2023 using 3D cone beam computed tomography (CBCT), a highly detailed imaging technique. A large and comprehensive dataset was compiled, consisting of 150 normal individuals and 2,800 patients, totaling 5,750 preoperative and postoperative facial images. These data were critical for training a machine learning model designed to analyze and quantify facial symmetry. The machine learning model was trained to process 3D contour data from the CBCT images, with HD computing employed to power the facial symmetry quantification system. This combination of technologies allowed for an objective and detailed analysis of facial features, surpassing the accuracy and reliability of traditional symmetry assessments, which often rely on subjective visual evaluations by clinicians. In addition to developing the system, the researchers conducted a retrospective review of 3D CBCT data from 300 patients who had undergone OGS. The patients’ facial images were analyzed both before and after surgery to assess the clinical utility of the proposed system. The results showed that the facial symmetry algorithm achieved an overall accuracy of 82.5%, indicating its robustness in real-world clinical applications. Postoperative analysis revealed a significant improvement in facial symmetry, with an average score increase of 51%. The mean symmetry score rose from 2.53 preoperatively to 3.89 postoperatively, demonstrating the system's effectiveness in quantifying improvements after OGS. These results underscore the system's potential for providing valuable feedback to surgeons and aiding in the refinement of surgical techniques. The study also led to the development of a web-based system that automates facial symmetry assessment. This system integrates HD computing and 3D contour mapping into a user-friendly platform that allows for rapid and accurate evaluations. Clinicians can easily access this system to perform detailed symmetry assessments, making it a practical tool for clinical settings. Additionally, the system facilitates better communication between clinicians and patients by providing objective, easy-to-understand symmetry scores, which can help patients visualize the expected outcomes of their surgery. In conclusion, this study introduced a valuable and highly effective approach to facial symmetry evaluation in OGS, combining 3D contour mapping, HD computing, and machine learning. The resulting system achieved high accuracy and offers a streamlined, automated solution for clinical use. The development of the web-based platform further enhances its practicality, making it a valuable tool for improving surgical outcomes and patient satisfaction in orthognathic surgery.

Keywords: facial symmetry, orthognathic surgery, facial contour mapping, hyperdimensional computing

Procedia PDF Downloads 28

Authors: Tugba Altin

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In an era where the impacts of climate change resonate more pronouncedly than ever, communities globally grapple with events bearing both tangible and intangible ramifications. Situating this within the evolving landscapes of Psychological and Behavioral Sciences, this research probes the profound psychological and behavioral responses evoked by such events. The Lytton Creek Fire of 2021 epitomizes these challenges. While tangible destruction is immediate and evident, the intangible repercussions—emotional distress, disintegration of cultural landscapes, and disruptions in place attachment (PA)—require meticulous exploration. PA, emblematic of the emotional and cognitive affiliations individuals nurture with their environments, emerges as a cornerstone for comprehending how environmental cataclysms influence cultural identity and bonds to land. This study, harmonizing the core tenets of an interpretive phenomenological approach with a hermeneutic framework, underscores the pivotal nature of this attachment. It delves deep into the realm of individuals' experiences post the Lytton Creek Fire, unraveling the intricate dynamics of PA amidst such calamity. The study's methodology deviates from conventional paradigms. Instead of traditional interview techniques, it employs walking audio sessions and photo elicitation methods, granting participants the agency to immerse, re-experience, and vocalize their sentiments in real-time. Such techniques shed light on spatial narratives post-trauma and capture the otherwise elusive emotional nuances, offering a visually rich representation of place-based experiences. Central to this research is the voice of the affected populace, whose lived experiences and testimonies form the nucleus of the inquiry. As they renegotiate their bonds with transformed environments, their narratives reveal the indispensable role of cultural landscapes in forging place-based identities. Such revelations accentuate the necessity of integrating both tangible and intangible trauma facets into community recovery strategies, ensuring they resonate more profoundly with affected individuals. Bridging the domains of environmental psychology and behavioral sciences, this research accentuates the intertwined nature of tangible restoration with the imperative of emotional and cultural recuperation post-environmental disasters. It advocates for adaptation initiatives that are rooted in the lived realities of the affected, emphasizing a holistic approach that recognizes the profundity of human connections to landscapes. This research advocates the interdisciplinary exchange of ideas and strategies in addressing post-disaster community recovery strategies. It not only enriches the climate change discourse by emphasizing the human facets of disasters but also reiterates the significance of an interdisciplinary approach, encompassing psychological and behavioral nuances, for fostering a comprehensive understanding of climate-induced traumas. Such a perspective is indispensable for shaping more informed, empathetic, and effective adaptation strategies.

Keywords: place attachment, community recovery, disaster response, restorative landscapes, sensory response, visual methodologies

Procedia PDF Downloads 61

Authors: Anastasia Constantinou, Stephen Morris

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Background: The adoption of synchronous and asynchronous telemedicine modalities for primary care consultations has exponentially increased since the COVID-19 pandemic. However, there is limited understanding of how virtual consultations influence healthcare resource utilization and other quality measures including safety, timeliness, efficiency, patient and provider satisfaction, cost-effectiveness and environmental impact. Aim: Quantify the rate of follow-up visits, emergency department visits, hospitalizations, request for investigations and prescriptions and comment on the effect on different quality measures associated with different telemedicine modalities used for primary care services and primary care referrals to secondary care Design and setting: Systematic review in primary care Methods: A systematic search was carried out across three databases (Medline, PubMed and Scopus) between August and November 2023, using terms related to telemedicine, general practice, electronic referrals, follow-up, use and efficiency and supported by citation searching. This was followed by screening according to pre-defined criteria, data extraction and critical appraisal. Narrative synthesis and metanalysis of quantitative data was used to summarize findings. Results: The search identified 2230 studies; 50 studies are included in this review. There was a prevalence of asynchronous modalities in both primary care services (68%) and referrals from primary care to secondary care (83%), and most of the study participants were females (63.3%), with mean age of 48.2. The average follow-up for virtual consultations in primary care was 28.4% (eVisits: 36.8%, secure messages 18.7%, videoconference 23.5%) with no significant difference between them or F2F consultations. There was an average annual reduction of primary care visits by 0.09/patient, an increase in telephone visits by 0.20/patient, an increase in ED encounters by 0.011/patient, an increase in hospitalizations by 0.02/patient and an increase in out of hours visits by 0.019/patient. Laboratory testing was requested on average for 10.9% of telemedicine patients, imaging or procedures for 5.6% and prescriptions for 58.7% of patients. When looking at referrals to secondary care, on average 36.7% of virtual referrals required follow-up visit, with the average rate of follow-up for electronic referrals being higher than for videoconferencing (39.2% vs 23%, p=0.167). Technical failures were reported on average for 1.4% of virtual consultations to primary care. When using carbon footprint estimates, we calculate that the use of telemedicine in primary care services can potentially provide a net decrease in carbon footprint by 0.592kgCO2/patient/year. When follow-up rates are taken into account, we estimate that virtual consultations reduce carbon footprint for primary care services by 2.3 times, and for secondary care referrals by 2.2 times. No major concerns regarding quality of care, or patient satisfaction were identified. 5/7 studies that addressed cost-effectiveness, reported increased savings. Conclusions: Telemedicine provides quality, cost-effective, and environmentally sustainable care for patients in primary care with inconclusive evidence regarding the rates of subsequent healthcare utilization. The evidence is limited by heterogeneous, small-scale studies and lack of prospective comparative studies. Further research to identify the most appropriate telemedicine modality for different patient populations, clinical presentations, service provision (e.g. used to follow-up patients instead of initial diagnosis) as well as further education for patients and providers alike on how to make best use of this service is expected to improve outcomes and influence practice.

Keywords: telemedicine, healthcare utilisation, digital interventions, environmental impact, sustainable healthcare

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Authors: Xiaoqing Peng, Aijing Luo, Yang Chen

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Background: Cyberchondria, as an "emerging risk" accompanied by the information era, is a new abnormal pattern characterized by excessive or repeated online searches for health-related information and escalating health anxiety, which endangers people's physical and mental health and poses a huge threat to public health. Objective: To explore and discuss the research status, hotspots and trends of Cyberchondria. Methods: Based on a total of 77 articles regarding "Cyberchondria" extracted from Web of Science from the beginning till October 2019, the literature trends, countries, institutions, hotspots are analyzed by bibliometric analysis, the concept definition of Cyberchondria, instruments, relevant factors, treatment and intervention are discussed as well. Results: Since "Cyberchondria" was put forward for the first time in 2001, the last two decades witnessed a noticeable increase in the amount of literature, especially during 2014-2019, it quadrupled dramatically at 62 compared with that before 2014 only at 15, which shows that Cyberchondria has become a new theme and hot topic in recent years. The United States was the most active contributor with the largest publication (23), followed by England (11) and Australia (11), while the leading institutions were Baylor University(7) and University of Sydney(7), followed by Florida State University(4) and University of Manchester(4). The WoS categories "Psychiatry/Psychology " and "Computer/ Information Science "were the areas of greatest influence. The concept definition of Cyberchondria is not completely unified in the world, but it is generally considered as an abnormal behavioral pattern and emotional state and has been invoked to refer to the anxiety-amplifying effects of online health-related searches. The first and the most frequently cited scale for measuring the severity of Cyberchondria called “The Cyberchondria Severity Scale (CSS) ”was developed in 2014, which conceptualized Cyberchondria as a multidimensional construct consisting of compulsion, distress, excessiveness, reassurance, and mistrust of medical professionals which was proved to be not necessary for this construct later. Since then, the Brazilian, German, Turkish, Polish and Chinese versions were subsequently developed, improved and culturally adjusted, while CSS was optimized to a simplified version (CSS-12) in 2019, all of which should be worthy of further verification. The hotspots of Cyberchondria mainly focuses on relevant factors as follows: intolerance of uncertainty, anxiety sensitivity, obsessive-compulsive disorder, internet addition, abnormal illness behavior, Whiteley index, problematic internet use, trying to make clear the role played by “associated factors” and “anxiety-amplifying factors” in the development of Cyberchondria, to better understand the aetiological links and pathways in the relationships between hypochondriasis, health anxiety and online health-related searches. Although the treatment and intervention of Cyberchondria are still in the initial stage of exploration, there are kinds of meaningful attempts to seek effective strategies from different aspects such as online psychological treatment, network technology management, health information literacy improvement and public health service. Conclusion: Research on Cyberchondria is in its infancy but should be deserved more attention. A conceptual consensus on Cyberchondria, a refined assessment tool, prospective studies conducted in various populations, targeted treatments for it would be the main research direction in the near future.

Keywords: cyberchondria, hypochondriasis, health anxiety, online health-related searches

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Authors: Kiran Datta, Daniella Holland-Hart, Anthony Byrne

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Introduction: Oesophago-gastric (OG) cancers are the fifth commonest in the UK, accounting for over 12,000 deaths each year. Most patients will present at later stages of the disease, with only 21% of patients with stage 4 disease surviving longer than a year. As a result, many patients are unsuitable for curative surgery and instead receive palliative treatment to improve prognosis and symptom burden. However, palliative chemotherapy can result in significant toxicity: almost half of the patients are unable to complete their chemotherapy regimen, with this proportion rising significantly in older and frailer patients. In addition, clinical trials often exclude older and frailer patients due to strict inclusion criteria, meaning there is limited evidence to guide which patients are most likely to benefit from palliative chemotherapy. Inappropriate chemotherapy administration is at odds with the goals of palliative treatment and care, which are to improve quality of life, and this also represents a significant resource expenditure. This literature review aimed to examine and appraise evidence regarding treatment resilience in order to guide clinicians in identifying the most suitable candidates for palliative chemotherapy. Factors influencing treatment resilience were assessed, as measured by completion rates, dose reductions, and toxicities. Methods: This literature review was conducted using rapid review methodology, utilising modified systematic methods. A literature search was performed across the MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library databases, with results limited to papers within the last 15 years and available in English. Key inclusion criteria included: 1) participants with either oesophageal, gastro-oesophageal junction, or gastric cancers; 2) patients treated with palliative chemotherapy; 3) available data evaluating the association between baseline participant characteristics and treatment resilience. Results: Of the 2326 papers returned, 11 reports of 10 studies were included in this review after excluding duplicates and irrelevant papers. Treatment resilience factors that were assessed included: age, performance status, frailty, inflammatory markers, and sarcopenia. Age was generally a poor predictor for how well patients would tolerate chemotherapy, while poor performance status was a better indicator of the need for dose reduction and treatment non-completion. Frailty was assessed across one cohort using multiple screening tools and was an effective marker of the risk of toxicity and the requirement for dose reduction. Inflammatory markers included lymphopenia and the Glasgow Prognostic Score, which assessed inflammation and hypoalbuminaemia. Although quick to obtain and interpret, these findings appeared less reliable due to the inclusion of patients treated with palliative radiotherapy. Sarcopenia and body composition were often associated with chemotherapy toxicity but not the rate of regimen completion. Conclusion: This review demonstrates that there are numerous measures that can estimate the ability of patients with oesophago-gastric cancer to tolerate palliative chemotherapy, and these should be incorporated into clinical assessments to promote personalised decision-making around treatment. Age should not be a barrier to receiving chemotherapy and older and frailer patients should be included in future clinical trials to better represent typical patients with oesophago-gastric cancers. Decisions regarding palliative treatment should be guided by these factors identified as well as patient preference.

Keywords: frailty, oesophago-gastric cancer, palliative chemotherapy, treatment resilience

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Authors: M. Velana, G. Rinkenauer

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Nowadays, nurses are facing unprecedented amounts of pressure due to the ongoing global health demands. Work-related stress can cause a high physical and psychological workload, which can lead, in turn, to burnout. On the physiological level, stress triggers an initial activation of the sympathetic nervous and adrenomedullary systems resulting in increases in cardiac activity. Furthermore, activation of the hypothalamus-pituitary-adrenal axis provokes endocrine and immune changes leading to the release of cortisol and cytokines in an effort to re-establish body balance. Based on the current state of the literature, it has been identified that resilience and mindfulness exercises among nurses can effectively decrease stress and improve mood. However, it is still unknown what relaxation techniques would be suitable for and to what extent would be effective to decrease psychophysiological arousal deriving from either a physiological or a psychological stressor. Moreover, although cardiac activity and cortisol are promising candidates to examine the effectiveness of relaxation to reduce stress, it still remains to shed light on the role of cytokines in this process so as to thoroughly understand the body’s response to stress and to relaxation. Therefore, the main aim of the present study is to develop a comprehensive experimental paradigm and assess different relaxation techniques, namely progressive muscle relaxation and a mindfulness exercise originating from cognitive therapy by means of biofeedback, under highly controlled laboratory conditions. An experimental between-subject design will be employed, where 120 participants will be randomized either to a physiological or a psychological stress-related experiment. Particularly, the cold pressor test refers to a procedure in which the participants have to immerse their non-dominant hands into ice water (2-3 °C) for 3 min. The participants are requested to keep their hands in the water throughout the whole duration. However, they can immediately terminate the test in case it would be barely tolerable. A pre-test anticipation phase and a post-stress period of 3 min, respectively, are planned. The Trier Social Stress Test will be employed to induce psychological stress. During this laboratory stressor, the participants are instructed to give a 5-min speech in front of a committee of communication specialists. Before the main task, there is a 10-min anticipation period. Subsequently, participants are requested to perform an unexpected arithmetic task. After stress exposure, the participants will perform one of the relaxation exercises (treatment condition) or watch a neutral video (control condition). Electrocardiography, salivary samples, and self-report will be collected at different time points. The preliminary results deriving from the pilot study showed that the aforementioned paradigm could effectively induce stress reactions and that relaxation might decrease the impact of stress exposure. It is of utmost importance to assess how the human body responds under different stressors and relaxation exercises so that an evidence-based intervention could be transferred in a clinical setting to improve nurses’ general health. Based on suggestive future laboratory findings, the research group plans to conduct a pilot-level randomized study to decrease stress and promote well-being among nurses who work in the stress-riddled environment of a hospital located in Northern Germany.

Keywords: nurses, psychophysiology, relaxation, stress

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Authors: Pedro Llanos, Diego García

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Spaceflight is considered the last frontier in terms of science, technology, and engineering. But it is also the next frontier in terms of human physiology and performance. After more than 200,000 years humans have evolved under earth’s gravity and atmospheric conditions, spaceflight poses environmental stresses for which human physiology is not adapted. Hypoxia, accelerations, and radiation are among such stressors, our research involves suborbital flights aiming to develop effective countermeasures in order to assure sustainable human space presence. The physiologic baseline of spaceflight participants is subject to great variability driven by age, gender, fitness, and metabolic reserve. The objective of the present study is to characterize different physiologic variables in a population of STEM practitioners during an aerobatic flight. Cardiovascular and pulmonary responses were determined in Science Astronaut Candidates (SACs) during unusual attitude aerobatic flight indoctrination. Physiologic data recordings from 20 subjects participating in high-G flight training were analyzed. These recordings were registered by wearable sensor-vest that monitored electrocardiographic tracings (ECGs), signs of dysrhythmias or other electric disturbances during all the flight. The same cardiovascular parameters were also collected approximately 10 min pre-flight, during each high-G/unusual attitude maneuver and 10 min after the flights. The ratio (pre-flight/in-flight/post-flight) of the cardiovascular responses was calculated for comparison of inter-individual differences. The resulting tracings depicting the cardiovascular responses of the subjects were compared against the G-loads (Gs) during the aerobatic flights to analyze cardiovascular variability aspects and fluid/pressure shifts due to the high Gs. In-flight ECG revealed cardiac variability patterns associated with rapid Gs onset in terms of reduced heart rate (HR) and some scattered dysrhythmic patterns (15% premature ventricular contractions-type) that were considered as triggered physiological responses to high-G/unusual attitude training and some were considered as instrument artifact. Variation events were observed in subjects during the +Gz and –Gz maneuvers and these may be due to preload and afterload, sudden shift. Our data reveal that aerobatic flight influenced the breathing rate of the subject, due in part by the various levels of energy expenditure due to the increased use of muscle work during these aerobatic maneuvers. Noteworthy was the high heterogeneity in the different physiological responses among a relatively small group of SACs exposed to similar aerobatic flights with similar Gs exposures. The cardiovascular responses clearly demonstrated that SACs were subjected to significant flight stress. Routine ECG monitoring during high-G/unusual attitude flight training is recommended to capture pathology underlying dangerous dysrhythmias in suborbital flight safety. More research is currently being conducted to further facilitate the development of robust medical screening, medical risk assessment approaches, and suborbital flight training in the context of the evolving commercial human suborbital spaceflight industry. A more mature and integrative medical assessment method is required to understand the physiology state and response variability among highly diverse populations of prospective suborbital flight participants.

Keywords: g force, aerobatic maneuvers, suborbital flight, hypoxia, commercial astronauts

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Authors: Elisabetta Cianfanelli, Maria Claudia Coppola, Margherita Tufarelli

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Design practices throughout history return a critical understanding of society since they always conveyed values and meanings aimed at (re)framing reality by acting in everyday life: here, design gains cultural and normative character, since its artifacts, services, and environments hold the power to intercept, influence and inspire thoughts, behaviors, and relationships. In this sense, design can be persuasive, engaging in the production of worlds and, as such, acting in the space between poietics and politics so that chasing preferable futures and their aesthetic strategies becomes a matter full of political responsibility. This resonates with contemporary landscapes of radical interdependencies challenging designers to focus on complex socio-technical systems and to better support values such as equality and justice for both humans and nonhumans. In fact, it is in times of crisis and structural uncertainty that designers turn into visionaries at the service of society, envisioning scenarios and dwelling in the territories of imagination to conceive new fictions and frictions to be added to the thickness of the real. Here, design’s main tasks are to develop options, to increase the variety of choices, to cultivate its role as scout, jester, agent provocateur for the public, so that design for transformation emerges, making an explicit commitment to society, furthering structural change in a proactive and synergic manner. However, the exploration of possible futures is both a trap and a trampoline because, although it embodies a radical research tool, it raises various challenges when the design process goes further in the translation of such vision into an artefact - whether tangible or intangible -, through which it should deliver that bit of future into everyday experience. Today designers are making up new tools and practices to tackle current wicked challenges, combining their approaches with other disciplinary domains: futuring through design, thus, rises from research strands like speculative design, design fiction, and critical design, where the blending of design approaches and futures thinking brings an action-oriented and product-based approach to strategic insights. The contribution positions at the intersection of those approaches, aiming at discussing design’s tools of inquiry through which it is possible to grasp the agency of imagined futures into present time. Since futures are not remote, they actively participate in creating path-dependent decisions, crystallized into designed artifacts par excellence, prototypes, and their conceptual other, provotypes: with both being unfinished and multifaceted, the first ones are effective in reiterating solutions to problems already framed, while the second ones prove to be useful when the goal is to explore and break boundaries, bringing closer preferable futures. By focusing on some provotypes throughout history which challenged markets and, above all, social and cultural structures, the contribution’s final aim is understanding the knowledge produced by provotypes, understood as design spaces where designs’s humanistic side might help developing a deeper sensibility about uncertainty and, most of all, the unfinished feature of societal artifacts, whose experimentation would leave marks and traces to build up f(r)ictions as vital sparks of plurality and collective life.

Keywords: speculative design, provotypes, design knowledge, political theory

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Authors: André Python

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To this day, terrorism persists as a worldwide threat, exemplified by the recent deadly attacks in January 2015 in Paris and the ongoing massacres perpetrated by ISIS in Iraq and Syria. In response to this threat, states deploy various counterterrorism measures, the cost of which could be reduced through effective preventive measures. In order to increase the efficiency of preventive measures, policy-makers may benefit from accurate predictive models that are able to capture the complex spatial dynamics of terrorism occurring at a local scale. Despite empirical research carried out at country-level that has confirmed theories explaining the diffusion processes of terrorism across space and time, scholars have failed to assess diffusion’s theories on a local scale. Moreover, since scholars have not made the most of recent statistical modelling approaches, they have been unable to build up predictive models accurate in both space and time. In an effort to address these shortcomings, this research suggests a novel approach to systematically assess the theories of terrorism’s diffusion on a local scale and provide a predictive model of the local spatial dynamics of terrorism worldwide. With a focus on the lethal terrorist events that occurred after 9/11, this paper addresses the following question: why and how does lethal terrorism diffuse in space and time? Based on geolocalised data on worldwide terrorist attacks and covariates gathered from 2002 to 2013, a binomial spatio-temporal point process is used to model the probability of terrorist attacks on a sphere (the world), the surface of which is discretised in the form of Delaunay triangles and refined in areas of specific interest. Within a Bayesian framework, the model is fitted through an integrated nested Laplace approximation - a recent fitting approach that computes fast and accurate estimates of posterior marginals. Hence, for each location in the world, the model provides a probability of encountering a lethal terrorist attack and measures of volatility, which inform on the model’s predictability. Diffusion processes are visualised through interactive maps that highlight space-time variations in the probability and volatility of encountering a lethal attack from 2002 to 2013. Based on the previous twelve years of observation, the location and lethality of terrorist events in 2014 are statistically accurately predicted. Throughout the global scope of this research, local diffusion processes such as escalation and relocation are systematically examined: the former process describes an expansion from high concentration areas of lethal terrorist events (hotspots) to neighbouring areas, while the latter is characterised by changes in the location of hotspots. By controlling for the effect of geographical, economical and demographic variables, the results of the model suggest that the diffusion processes of lethal terrorism are jointly driven by contagious and non-contagious factors that operate on a local scale – as predicted by theories of diffusion. Moreover, by providing a quantitative measure of predictability, the model prevents policy-makers from making decisions based on highly uncertain predictions. Ultimately, this research may provide important complementary tools to enhance the efficiency of policies that aim to prevent and combat terrorism.

Keywords: diffusion process, terrorism, spatial dynamics, spatio-temporal modeling

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