Search results for: time series models

Authors: Konstantinos Perifanos, Eirini Florou, Dionysis Goutsos

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This paper presents and benchmarks a number of end-to-end Deep Learning based models for metaphor detection in Greek. We combine Convolutional Neural Networks and Recurrent Neural Networks with representation learning to bear on the metaphor detection problem for the Greek language. The models presented achieve exceptional accuracy scores, significantly improving the previous state-of-the-art results, which had already achieved accuracy 0.82. Furthermore, no special preprocessing, feature engineering or linguistic knowledge is used in this work. The methods presented achieve accuracy of 0.92 and F-score 0.92 with Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and bidirectional Long Short Term Memory networks (LSTMs). Comparable results of 0.91 accuracy and 0.91 F-score are also achieved with bidirectional Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs) and Convolutional Recurrent Neural Nets (CRNNs). The models are trained and evaluated only on the basis of training tuples, the related sentences and their labels. The outcome is a state-of-the-art collection of metaphor detection models, trained on limited labelled resources, which can be extended to other languages and similar tasks.

Keywords: metaphor detection, deep learning, representation learning, embeddings

Procedia PDF Downloads 153

Authors: Seyedtaghi Mirmohammadi, Jamshid Yazdani, Syavash Etemadi Nejad

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One of the main indoor air parameters in classrooms is dust pollution and it depends on the particle size and exposure duration. However, there is a lake of data about the exposure level to PM2.5 concentrations in rural area classrooms. The objective of the current study was exposure assessment for PM2.5 for students in the classrooms. One year monitoring was carried out for fifteen schools by time-series sampling to evaluate the indoor air PM2.5 in the rural district of Sari city, Iran. A hygrometer and thermometer were used to measure some psychrometric parameters (temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed) and Real-Time Dust Monitor, (MicroDust Pro, Casella, UK) was used to monitor particulate matters (PM2.5) concentration. The results show the mean indoor PM2.5 concentration in the studied classrooms was 135µg/m3. The regression model indicated that a positive correlation between indoor PM2.5 concentration and relative humidity, also with distance from city center and classroom size. Meanwhile, the regression model revealed that the indoor PM2.5 concentration, the relative humidity, and dry bulb temperature was significant at 0.05, 0.035, and 0.05 levels, respectively. A statistical predictive model was obtained from multiple regressions modeling for indoor PM2.5 concentration and indoor psychrometric parameters conditions.

Keywords: classrooms, concentration, humidity, particulate matters, regression

Procedia PDF Downloads 335

Authors: Ani Thomas

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Every narrative is a temporal construct. Every narrative creates a qualitative experience of time for the viewer. The paper argues for the concept of a qualified time that emerges from the interaction between the narrative and the audience. The paper also challenges the conventional understanding of narrative time as either story time, real time or discourse time. Looking at narratives through the medium of Cinema, the study examines how narratives create and manipulate duration or durée, the qualitative experience of time as theorized by Henri Bergson. The paper further analyzes how Cinema and, by extension, narratives are nothing but Durée and the filmmaker, the artist of durée, who shape and manipulate the perception and emotions of the viewer through the manipulation and construction of durée. The paper draws on cinematic works to look at the techniques to demonstrate how filmmakers use, for example, editing, sound, compositional and production narratives etc., to create various modes of durée that challenge, amplify or unsettle the viewer’s sense of time. Bringing together the Viewer’s durée and exploring its interaction with the narrative construct, the paper explores the emergence of the new qualitative time, the narrative durée, that defines the audience experience.

Keywords: cinema, time, bergson, duree

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Authors: M. C. A. Leite, B. Chen-Charpentier, F. Agusto

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A long-term goal of sustainable forest management is a relatively stable source of wood and a stable forest age-class structure has become the goal of many forest management practices. In the absence of disturbances, this forest management goal could easily be achieved. However, in the face of recurring insect outbreaks and other disruptive processes forest planning becomes more difficult, requiring knowledge of the effects on the forest of a wide variety of environmental factors (e.g., habitat heterogeneity, fire size and frequency, harvesting, insect outbreaks, and age distributions). The association between distinct forest disturbances and the potential effect on forest dynamics is a complex matter, particularly when evaluated over time and at large scale, and is not well understood. However, gaining knowledge in this area is crucial for a sustainable forest management. Mathematical modeling is a tool that can be used to broader the understanding in this area. In this talk we will introduce mathematical models formulation incorporating the effect of insect outbreaks either as a single disturbance in the forest population dynamics or coupled with other disturbances: either wildfire or harvesting. The results and ecological insights will be discussed.

Keywords: age-structured forest population, disturbances interaction, harvesting insects outbreak dynamics, mathematical modeling

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Authors: Lidija R. Jevrić, Sanja O. Podunavac-Kuzmanović, Strahinja Z. Kovačević

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This study considers the selection of the most suitable in silico molecular descriptors that could be used for s-triazine pesticides characterization. Suitable descriptors among topological, geometrical and physicochemical are used for quantitative structure-retention relationships (QSRR) model establishment. Established models were obtained using linear regression (LR) and multiple linear regression (MLR) analysis. In this paper, MLR models were established avoiding multicollinearity among the selected molecular descriptors. Statistical quality of established models was evaluated by standard and cross-validation statistical parameters. For detection of similarity or dissimilarity among investigated s-triazine pesticides and their classification, principal component analysis (PCA) and hierarchical cluster analysis (HCA) were used and gave similar grouping. This study is financially supported by COST action TD1305.

Keywords: chemometrics, classification analysis, molecular descriptors, pesticides, regression analysis

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Authors: Masoud Mahdavi

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Today, developed and industrial cities have all kinds of sewage and water transfer canals, subway tunnels, infrastructure facilities, etc., which have caused underground cavities to be created under the buildings. The presence of these cavities causes behavioral changes in the structural behavior that must be fully evaluated. In the present study, using Abaqus finite element software, the effect of cavities with 0.5 and 1.5 meters in diameter at a depth of 2.5 meters from the earth's surface (with a circular cross-section) on the performance of the foundation and the ground (soil) has been evaluated. For this purpose, the Kobe earthquake was applied to the models for 10 seconds. Also, pore water pressure and weight were considered on the models to get complete results. The results showed that by creating and increasing the diameter of circular cavities in the soil, three indicators; 1) von Mises stress, 2) displacement and 3) plastic strain have had oscillating, ascending and ascending processes, respectively, which shows the relationship between increasing the diameter index of underground cavities and structural indicators of structure-foundation-soil.

Keywords: underground excavations, foundation, structural substrates, Abaqus software, Kobe earthquake, time history analysis

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Authors: Selvakumar Ulaganathan, Ivo Couckuyt, Francesco Ferranti, Tom Dhaene, Eric Laermans

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Variable-fidelity surrogate modelling offers an efficient way to approximate function data available in multiple degrees of accuracy each with varying computational cost. In this paper, a Kriging-based variable-fidelity surrogate modelling approach is introduced to approximate such deterministic data. Initially, individual Kriging surrogate models, which are enhanced with gradient data of different degrees of accuracy, are constructed. Then these Gradient enhanced Kriging surrogate models are strategically coupled using a recursive CoKriging formulation to provide an accurate surrogate model for the highest fidelity data. While, intuitively, gradient data is useful to enhance the accuracy of surrogate models, the primary motivation behind this work is to investigate if it is also worthwhile incorporating gradient data of varying degrees of accuracy.

Keywords: Kriging, CoKriging, Surrogate modelling, Variable- fidelity modelling, Gradients

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Authors: Donglan Zha, Jiansong Si

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Because of its flexibility, CES attracts much interest in economic growth and programming models, and the macroeconomics or micro-macro models. This paper focuses on the development, estimating methods of CES production function considering energy as an input. We leave for future research work of relaxing the assumption of constant returns to scale, the introduction of potential input factors, and the generalization method of the optimal nested form of multi-factor production functions.

Keywords: bias of technical change, CES production function, elasticity of substitution, energy input

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Authors: Puttharapong Sakulwaropas, Uraiwan Jaroengeratikun

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Casualty insurance business, the optimal premium pricing and adequate cost for an insurance company are important in risk management. Normally, the insurance pure premium can be determined by multiplying the claim frequency with the claim cost. The aim of this research was to study in the application of generalized linear models to select the risk factor for model of claim frequency and claim cost for estimating a pure premium. In this study, the data set was the claim of comprehensive motor insurance, which was provided by one of the insurance company in Thailand. The results of this study found that the risk factors significantly related to pure premium at the 0.05 level consisted of no claim bonus (NCB) and used of the car (Car code).

Keywords: generalized linear models, risk factor, pure premium, regression model

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Authors: Saad Bin Nasir

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The study identifies the impact of inflation and foreign exchange rate on foreign direct investment in Pakistan. Inflation and exchange rates are used as independent variables and foreign direct investment is taken as dependent variable. Discreet time series data has been used from the period of 1999 to 2009. The results of regression analysis reveal that high inflation has negative impact on foreign direct investment and higher exchange rates has positive impact on foreign direct investment in Pakistan. The inflation and foreign exchange rates both are insignificant in the analysis.

Keywords: inflation rate, foreign exchange rate, foreign direct investment, foreign assets

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Authors: Edlira Kalemi, Sule Yildirim-Yayilgan

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Online Social Networks (OSNs) are nowadays being used widely and intensively for crime investigation and prevention activities. As they provide a lot of information they are used by the law enforcement and intelligence. An extensive review on existing solutions and models for collecting intelligence from this source of information and making use of it for solving crimes has been presented in this article. The main focus is on smart solutions and models where ontologies have been used as the main approach for representing criminal domain knowledge. A framework for a prototype ontology named SC-Ont will be described. This defines terms of the criminal domain ontology and the relations between them. The terms and the relations are extracted during both this review and the discussions carried out with domain experts. The development of SC-Ont is still ongoing work, where in this paper, we report mainly on the motivation for using smart ontology models and the possible benefits of using them for solving crimes.

Keywords: criminal digital evidence, social media, ontologies, reasoning

Procedia PDF Downloads 388

Authors: Fauziah Aziz, Mohd.fadzil Arshad, Hazrina Mansor, Sedat Kömürcü

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Masonry is an isotropic and heterogeneous material due to the presence of the different components within the assembly process. Normally the mortar plays a significant role in the compressive behavior of the traditional masonry structures. Biaxial interlocking concrete block is a masonry unit that comes out with the interlocking concept. This masonry unit can improve the quality of the construction process, reduce the cost of labor, reduce high skill workmanship, and speeding the construction time. Normally, the interlocking concrete block masonry unit in the market place was designed in a way interlocking concept only either x or y-axis, shorter in length, and low compressive strength value. However, the biaxial interlocking concrete block is a dry-stack concept being introduced in this research, offered the specialty compared to the normal interlocking concrete available in the market place due to its length and the geometry of the groove and tongue. This material can be used as a non-load bearing wall, or load-bearing wall depends on the application of the masonry. But, there is a lack of technical data that was produced before. This paper presents a finding on the compressive resistance of the biaxial interlocking concrete block masonry wall compared to the other traditional masonry walls. Two series of biaxial interlocking concrete block masonry walls, namely M1 and M2, a series of solid concrete block and cement sand brick walls M3, and M4 have tested the compressive resistance. M1 is the masonry wall of a hollow biaxial interlocking concrete block meanwhile; M2 is the grouted masonry wall, M3 is a solid concrete block masonry wall, and M4 is a cement sand brick masonry wall. All the samples were tested under static compressive load. The results examine that M2 is higher in compressive resistance compared to the M1, M3, and M4. It shows that the compressive strength of the concrete masonry units plays a significant role in the capacity of the masonry wall.

Keywords: interlocking concrete block, compressive resistance, concrete masonry unit, masonry

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Authors: Said Benkaciali, Mourad Haddadi, Abdallah Khellaf, Kacem Gairaa, Mawloud Guermoui

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In this study, many experiments were carried out to assess the influence of the input parameters on the performance of multilayer perceptron which is one the configuration of the artificial neural networks. To estimate the daily global solar radiation on the horizontal surface, we have developed some models by using seven combinations of twelve meteorological and geographical input parameters collected from a radiometric station installed at Ghardaïa city (southern of Algeria). For selecting of best combination which provides a good accuracy, six statistical formulas (or statistical indicators) have been evaluated, such as the root mean square errors, mean absolute errors, correlation coefficient, and determination coefficient. We noted that multilayer perceptron techniques have the best performance, except when the sunshine duration parameter is not included in the input variables. The maximum of determination coefficient and correlation coefficient are equal to 98.20 and 99.11%. On the other hand, some empirical models were developed to compare their performances with those of multilayer perceptron neural networks. Results obtained show that the neural networks techniques give the best performance compared to the empirical models.

Keywords: empirical models, multilayer perceptron neural network, solar radiation, statistical formulas

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Authors: Leonard Maaya, Michel Meulders, Martina Vandebroek

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Discrete Choice Experiments (DCE) are used to investigate how product attributes affect decision-makers’ choices. In DCEs, choice situations consisting of several alternatives are presented from which choice-makers select the preferred alternative. Standard multinomial logit models based on random utility theory can be used to estimate the utilities for the attributes. The overarching principle in these models is that respondents understand and use all the attributes when making choices. However, studies suggest that respondents sometimes ignore some attributes (commonly referred to as Attribute Non-Attendance/ANA). The choice modeling literature presents ANA as a static process, i.e., respondents’ ANA behavior does not change throughout the experiment. However, respondents may ignore attributes due to changing factors like availability of information on attributes, learning/fatigue in experiments, etc. We develop a dynamic mixture latent Markov model to model changes in ANA when information on attributes is provided. The model is illustrated on e-consumers’ webshop choices. The results indicate that the dynamic ANA model describes the behavioral changes better than modeling the impact of information using changes in parameters. Further, we find that providing information on attributes leads to an increase in the attendance probabilities for the investigated attributes.

Keywords: choice models, discrete choice experiments, dynamic models, e-commerce, statistical modeling

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Authors: James Newman

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Process mining is an emerging technology that looks to serialize enterprise data in time series data. It has been used by many companies and has been the subject of a variety of research papers. However, the majority of current efforts have looked at how to best create process mining from standard relational databases. This paper is the first pass at outlining a database custom-built for the minimal viable product of process mining. We present Block Miner, a blockchain protocol to store process mining data across a distributed network. We demonstrate the feasibility of storing process mining data on the blockchain. We present a proof of concept and show how the intersection of these two technologies helps to solve a variety of issues, including but not limited to ransomware attacks, tax documentation, and conflict resolution.

Keywords: blockchain, process mining, memory optimization, protocol

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Authors: L. Q. Yuan, J. Yang, A. Siddiqui

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A new regression uncertainty analysis methodology was applied to determine the uncertainties of the critical heat flux (CHF) power correlation for an advanced 43-element bundle design, which was developed by Canadian Nuclear Laboratories (CNL) to achieve improved economics, resource utilization and energy sustainability. The new methodology is considered more appropriate than the traditional methodology in the assessment of the experimental uncertainty associated with regressions. The methodology was first assessed using both the Monte Carlo Method (MCM) and the Taylor Series Method (TSM) for a simple linear regression model, and then extended successfully to a non-linear CHF power regression model (CHF power as a function of inlet temperature, outlet pressure and mass flow rate). The regression uncertainty assessed by MCM agrees well with that by TSM. An equation to evaluate the CHF power regression uncertainty was developed and expressed as a function of independent variables that determine the CHF power.

Keywords: CHF experiment, CHF correlation, regression uncertainty, Monte Carlo Method, Taylor Series Method

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Authors: Ch. Surawut, D. Sukawat

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In order to utilize results from global climate models, dynamical and statistical downscaling techniques have been developed. For dynamical downscaling, usually a limited area numerical model is used, with associated high computational cost. This research proposes dynamic equation for specific space-time regional climate downscaling from the Educational Global Climate Model (EdGCM) for Southeast Asia. The equation is for surface air temperature. These equations provide downscaling values of surface air temperature at any specific location and time without running a regional climate model. In the proposed equations, surface air temperature is approximated from ground temperature, sensible heat flux and 2m wind speed. Results from the application of the equation show that the errors from the proposed equations are less than the errors for direct interpolation from EdGCM.

Keywords: dynamic equation, downscaling, inverse distance, weight interpolation

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Authors: Keshav Dubey, Swajeeth Panchangam, Arun Rajendran, Swarnim Gupta

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In the semiconductor capital equipment industry, effective modeling of repairable system reliability is crucial for optimizing maintenance strategies and ensuring operational efficiency. However, repairable system reliability modeling using a renewal process is not as popular in the semiconductor equipment industry as it is in the locomotive and automotive industries. Utilization of this approach will help optimize maintenance practices. This paper presents a structured framework that leverages both parametric and non-parametric approaches to model the reliability of repairable subsystems based on operational data, maintenance schedules, and system-specific conditions. Data is organized at the equipment ID level, facilitating trend testing to uncover failure patterns and system degradation over time. For non-parametric modeling, the Mean Cumulative Function (Mean Cumulative Function) approach is applied, offering a flexible method to estimate the cumulative number of failures over time without assuming an underlying statistical distribution. This allows for empirical insights into subsystem failure behavior based on historical data. On the parametric side, virtual age modeling, along with Homogeneous and Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process (Homogeneous Poisson Process and Non-Homogeneous Poisson Process) models, is employed to quantify the effect of repairs and the aging process on subsystem reliability. These models allow for a more structured analysis by characterizing repair effectiveness and system wear-out trends over time. A comparison of various Generalized Renewal Process (GRP) approaches highlights their utility in modeling different repair effectiveness scenarios. These approaches provide a robust framework for assessing the impact of maintenance actions on system performance and reliability. By integrating both parametric and non-parametric methods, this framework offers a comprehensive toolset for reliability engineers to better understand equipment behavior, assess the effectiveness of maintenance activities, and make data-driven decisions that enhance system availability and operational performance in semiconductor fabrication facilities.

Keywords: reliability, maintainability, homegenous poission process, repairable system

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Authors: Shayla He

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Background and Purpose: According to Chamie (2017), it’s estimated that no less than 150 million people, or about 2 percent of the world’s population, are homeless. The homeless population in the United States has grown rapidly in the past four decades. In New York City, the sheltered homeless population has increased from 12,830 in 1983 to 62,679 in 2020. Knowing the trend on the homeless population is crucial at helping the states and the cities make affordable housing plans, and other community service plans ahead of time to better prepare for the situation. This study utilized the data from New York City, examined the key factors associated with the homelessness, and developed systematic modeling to predict homeless populations of the future. Using the best model developed, named HP-RNN, an analysis on the homeless population change during the months of 2020 and 2021, which were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, was conducted. Moreover, HP-RNN was tested on the data from Seattle. Methods: The methodology involves four phases in developing robust prediction methods. Phase 1 gathered and analyzed raw data of homeless population and demographic conditions from five urban centers. Phase 2 identified the key factors that contribute to the rate of homelessness. In Phase 3, three models were built using Linear Regression, Random Forest, and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), respectively, to predict the future trend of society's homeless population. Each model was trained and tuned based on the dataset from New York City for its accuracy measured by Mean Squared Error (MSE). In Phase 4, the final phase, the best model from Phase 3 was evaluated using the data from Seattle that was not part of the model training and tuning process in Phase 3. Results: Compared to the Linear Regression based model used by HUD et al (2019), HP-RNN significantly improved the prediction metrics of Coefficient of Determination (R2) from -11.73 to 0.88 and MSE by 99%. HP-RNN was then validated on the data from Seattle, WA, which showed a peak %error of 14.5% between the actual and the predicted count. Finally, the modeling results were collected to predict the trend during the COVID-19 pandemic. It shows a good correlation between the actual and the predicted homeless population, with the peak %error less than 8.6%. Conclusions and Implications: This work is the first work to apply RNN to model the time series of the homeless related data. The Model shows a close correlation between the actual and the predicted homeless population. There are two major implications of this result. First, the model can be used to predict the homeless population for the next several years, and the prediction can help the states and the cities plan ahead on affordable housing allocation and other community service to better prepare for the future. Moreover, this prediction can serve as a reference to policy makers and legislators as they seek to make changes that may impact the factors closely associated with the future homeless population trend.

Keywords: homeless, prediction, model, RNN

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Authors: John Pomerat, Aviv Segev

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Recently, deep learning has had many theoretical breakthroughs. For deep learning to be successful in the industry, however, there need to be practical algorithms capable of handling many real-world hiccups preventing the immediate application of a learning algorithm. Although AI promises to revolutionize the healthcare industry, getting access to patient data in order to train learning algorithms has not been easy. One proposed solution to this is data- sharing. In this paper, we propose an alternative protocol, based on multi-party computation, to train deep learning models while maintaining both the privacy and security of training data. We examine three methods of training neural networks in this way: Transfer learning, average ensemble learning, and series network learning. We compare these methods to the equivalent model obtained through data-sharing across two different experiments. Additionally, we address the security concerns of this protocol. While the motivating example is healthcare, our findings regarding multi-party computation of neural network training are purely theoretical and have use-cases outside the domain of healthcare.

Keywords: neural network aggregation, multi-party computation, transfer learning, average ensemble learning

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Authors: Latifeh Navidpour, Shabnam Shabani, Alireza Heidari, Manouchehr Bashiri, Azadeh Ebrahim-Habibi, Soraya Shahhosseini, Hamed Shafaroodi, Sayyed Abbas Tabatabai, Mahsa Toolabi

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A new series of 5-(2-aryloxy-4-nitrophenyl)-4H-1,2,4-triazoles and 5-(2-aryloxy-3-pyridyl)-4H-1,2,4-triazoles, possessing C-3 thio or alkylthio substituents, was synthesized and evaluated for their benzodiazepine receptor affinity and anti-seizure activity. These analogues revealed similar to significantly superior affinity to GABAA/ benzodiazepine receptor complex (IC50 values of 0.04–4.1 nM), relative to diazepam as the reference drug (IC50 value of 2.4 nM). To determine the onset of anti-seizure activity, the time-dependent effectiveness of i.p. administration of compounds on pentylenetetrazole induced seizure threshold was studied and a very good relationship was observed between the lipophilicity (cLogP) and onset of action of studied analogues (r2 = 0.964). The minimum effective dose of the compounds, determined at the time the analogues showed their highest activity, was demonstrated to be 0.025–0.1 mg/kg, relative to diazepam (0.025 mg/kg).

Keywords: 1, 2, 4-triazole, flexible benzodiazepines, GABAA/bezodiazepine receptor complex, onset of action, PTZ induced seizure threshold

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Authors: Mahdi Motahari, Mojtaba Farzaneh, Ebrahim Sepidbar

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Tracking of moving and flying targets is one of the most important issues in image processing topic. Estimating of trajectory of desired object in short-term and long-term scale is more important than tracking of moving and flying targets. In this paper, a new way of identifying and estimating of future trajectory of a moving ball in long-term scale is estimated by using synthesis and interaction of image processing algorithms including noise removal and image segmentation, Kalman filter algorithm in order to estimating of trajectory of ball in football game in short-term scale and intelligent adaptive neuro-fuzzy algorithm based on time series of traverse distance. The proposed system attain more than 96% identify accuracy by using aforesaid methods and relaying on aforesaid algorithms and data base video in format of synthesis and interaction. Although the present method has high precision, it is time consuming. By comparing this method with other methods we realize the accuracy and efficiency of that.

Keywords: tracking, signal processing, moving targets and flying, artificial intelligent systems, estimating of trajectory, Kalman filter

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Authors: Mahmoud M. Tash

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The present study was undertaken to investigate the effect of aging parameters (time and temperature) on the mechanical properties of Be-and/or Zr- treated Al-Mg-Zn (7075) alloys. Ultimate tensile strength, 0.5% offset yield strength and % elongation measurements were carried out on specimens prepared from cast and heat treated 7075 alloys containing Be and/or Zr. Different aging treatment were carried out for the as solution treated (SHT) specimens. The specimens were aged at different conditions; Natural and artificial aging was carried out at room temperature, 120C, 150C, 180C and 220C for different periods of time. Duplex aging was performed for SHT conditions (pre-aged at different time and temperature followed by high temperature aging). Ultimate tensile strength, yield strength and % elongation data results as a function of different aging parameters are analysed. A statistical design of experiments (DOE) approach using fractional factorial design is applied to acquire an understanding of the effects of these variables and their interactions on the mechanical properties of Be- and/or Zr- treated 7075 alloys. Mathematical models are developed to relate the alloy mechanical properties with the different aging parameters.

Keywords: casting aging treatment, mechanical properties, Al-Mg-Zn alloys, Be- and/or Zr-treatment, experimental correlation

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Authors: Ka C. Lam, Oluwafunmibi S. Idowu

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Uncertainty in cost is a major factor affecting performance of construction projects. To our knowledge, several conceptual cost models have been developed with varying degrees of accuracy. Incorporating conceptual quantities into conceptual cost models could improve the accuracy of early predesign cost estimates. Hence, the development of quantity models for estimating conceptual quantities of framed reinforced concrete structures using supervised machine learning is the aim of the current research. Using measured quantities of structural elements and design variables such as live loads and soil bearing pressures, response and predictor variables were defined and used for constructing conceptual quantities models. Twenty-four models were developed for comparison using a combination of non-parametric support vector regression, linear regression, and bootstrap resampling techniques. R programming language was used for data analysis and model implementation. Gross soil bearing pressure and gross floor loading were discovered to have a major influence on the quantities of concrete and reinforcement used for foundations. Building footprint and gross floor loading had a similar influence on beams and slabs. Future research could explore the modelling of other conceptual quantities for walls, finishes, and services using machine learning techniques. Estimation of conceptual quantities would assist construction planners in early resource planning and enable detailed performance evaluation of early cost predictions.

Keywords: bootstrapping, conceptual quantities, modelling, reinforced concrete, support vector regression

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Authors: Gabriele Borg, Alexei Debono, Charlie Abela

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There on a constant rise in the availability of high volumes of data gathered from multiple sources, resulting in an abundance of unprocessed information that can be used to monitor patterns and trends in user behaviour. Similarly, year after year, Malta is also constantly experiencing ongoing population growth and an increase in mobilization demand. This research takes advantage of data which is continuously being sourced and converting it into useful information related to the traffic problem on the Maltese roads. The scope of this paper is to provide a methodology to create a custom dataset (MalTra - Malta Traffic) compiled from multiple participants from various locations across the island to identify the most common routes taken to expose the main areas of activity. This use of big data is seen being used in various technologies and is referred to as ITSs (Intelligent Transportation Systems), which has been concluded that there is significant potential in utilising such sources of data on a nationwide scale. Furthermore, a series of traffic prediction graph neural network models are conducted to compare MalTra to large-scale traffic datasets.

Keywords: graph neural networks, traffic management, big data, mobile data patterns

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Authors: Sajeda Elbashabsheh, Kamel Al-Khaled

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This paper applies a modified Laplace Adomian decomposition method to solve the time-fractional JaulentMiodek system. The method produce convergent series solutions with easily compatible components. This paper considers the Caputo fractional derivative. The effectiveness and applicability of the method are demonstrated by comparing its results with those of prior studies. Results are presented in tables and figures. These solutions might be imperative and significant for the explanation of some practical physical phenomena. All computations and figures in the work are done using MATHEMATICA. The numerical results demonstrate that the current methods are effective, reliable, and simple to i implement for nonlinear fractional partial differential equations.

Keywords: approximate solutions, Jaulent-Miodek system, Adomian decomposition method, solitons

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Authors: Mohamed Elkhouli

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This research sets out to identify some social factors or variables that may need to be controlled in order to decrease the volume of unemployed in Egypt. As well as, it comes to investigate the relationship between a set of social variables and unemployment issue in Egypt in the sake of determining the most important social variables influencing the rise of unemployed during the time series targeted (2002-2012). Highlighting the unemployment issue is becoming an increasingly important topic in all countries throughout the world resulting from expand their globalization efforts. In general, the study tries to determine what the most social priorities are likely to adopt seriously by the Egypt's government in order to solve the unemployed problem. The results showed that the low value for both of small projects and the total value of disbursed social security respectively have significant impact on increasing the No. of unemployed in Egypt, according to the target period by the current study.

Keywords: Egypt, social status, unemployment, unemployed

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Authors: Mayowa Saheed Sanusi A, Musiliu Olushola Sunmonua, Abdulquadri Alakab Owolabi Raheema, Adeyemi Ikimot Adejokea

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The development of healthy cookies for health-conscious consumers cannot be overemphasized in the present global health crisis. This study was aimed to evaluate and model the influence of ripeness levels of papaya puree (unripe, ripe and overripe), oven temperature (130°C, 150°C and 170°C) and oven rack speed (stationary, 10 and 20 rpm) on physicochemical properties of papaya-based cookies using Response Surface Methodology (RSM). The physicochemical properties (baking time, cookies mass, cookies thickness, spread ratio, proximate composition, Calcium, Vitamin C and Total Phenolic Content) were determined using standard procedures. The data obtained were statistically analysed at p≤0.05 using ANOVA. The polynomial regression model of response surface methodology was used to model the physicochemical properties. The adequacy of the models was determined using the coefficient of determination (R²) and the response optimizer of RSM was used to determine the optimum physicochemical properties for the papaya-based cookies. Cookies produced from overripe papaya puree were observed to have the shortest baking time; ripe papaya puree favors cookies spread ratio, while the unripe papaya puree gives cookies with the highest mass and thickness. The highest crude protein content, fiber content, calcium content, Vitamin C and Total Phenolic Content (TPC) were observed in papaya based-cookies produced from overripe puree. The models for baking time, cookies mass, cookies thickness, spread ratio, moisture content, crude protein and TPC were significant, with R2 ranging from 0.73 – 0.95. The optimum condition for producing papaya based-cookies with desirable physicochemical properties was obtained at 149°C oven temperature, 17 rpm oven rack speed and with the use of overripe papaya puree. The Information on the use of puree from unripe, ripe and overripe papaya can help to increase the use of underutilized unripe or overripe papaya and also serve as a strategic means of obtaining a fat substitute to produce new products with lower production cost and health benefit.

Keywords: papaya based-cookies, modeling, response surface methodology, physicochemical properties

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Authors: Óscar Muñoz Garrigós, José Manuel Bernabeu Aubán

Abstract:

Time-sensitive services are the base of the cloud services industry. Keeping low service saturation is essential for controlling response time. All auto-scalable services make use of reactive auto-scaling. However, reactive auto-scaling has few in-depth studies. This presentation shows a model for reactive auto-scaling methodologies with a MAPE-k architecture. Queuing theory can compute different properties of static services but lacks some parameters related to the transition between models. Our model uses queuing theory parameters to relate the transition between models. It associates MAPE-k related times, the sampling frequency, the cooldown period, the number of requests that an instance can handle per unit of time, the number of incoming requests at a time instant, and a function that describes the acceleration in the service's ability to handle more requests. This model is later used as a solution to horizontally auto-scale time-sensitive services composed of microservices, reevaluating the model’s parameters periodically to allocate resources. The solution requires limiting the acceleration of the growth in the number of incoming requests to keep a constrained response time. Business benefits determine such limits. The solution can add a dynamic number of instances and remains valid under different system sizes. The study includes performance recommendations to improve results according to the incoming load shape and business benefits. The exposed methodology is tested in a simulation. The simulator contains a load generator and a service composed of two microservices, where the frontend microservice depends on a backend microservice with a 1:1 request relation ratio. A common request takes 2.3 seconds to be computed by the service and is discarded if it takes more than 7 seconds. Both microservices contain a load balancer that assigns requests to the less loaded instance and preemptively discards requests if they are not finished in time to prevent resource saturation. When load decreases, instances with lower load are kept in the backlog where no more requests are assigned. If the load grows and an instance in the backlog is required, it returns to the running state, but if it finishes the computation of all requests and is no longer required, it is permanently deallocated. A few load patterns are required to represent the worst-case scenario for reactive systems: the following scenarios test response times, resource consumption and business costs. The first scenario is a burst-load scenario. All methodologies will discard requests if the rapidness of the burst is high enough. This scenario focuses on the number of discarded requests and the variance of the response time. The second scenario contains sudden load drops followed by bursts to observe how the methodology behaves when releasing resources that are lately required. The third scenario contains diverse growth accelerations in the number of incoming requests to observe how approaches that add a different number of instances can handle the load with less business cost. The exposed methodology is compared against a multiple threshold CPU methodology allocating/deallocating 10 or 20 instances, outperforming the competitor in all studied metrics.

Keywords: reactive auto-scaling, auto-scaling, microservices, cloud computing

Procedia PDF Downloads 93

Authors: A. Chowdhury, P. Egodawatta, J. M. McGree, A. Goonetilleke

Abstract:

Hydrologic models are increasingly used as tools to predict stormwater quantity and quality from urban catchments. However, due to a range of practical issues, most models produce gross errors in simulating complex hydraulic and hydrologic systems. Difficulty in finding a robust approach for model calibration is one of the main issues. Though automatic calibration techniques are available, they are rarely used in common commercial hydraulic and hydrologic modelling software e.g. MIKE URBAN. This is partly due to the need for a large number of parameters and large datasets in the calibration process. To overcome this practical issue, a framework for automatic calibration of a hydrologic model was developed in R platform and presented in this paper. The model was developed based on the time-area conceptualization. Four calibration parameters, including initial loss, reduction factor, time of concentration and time-lag were considered as the primary set of parameters. Using these parameters, automatic calibration was performed using Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC). ABC is a simulation-based technique for performing Bayesian inference when the likelihood is intractable or computationally expensive to compute. To test the performance and usefulness, the technique was used to simulate three small catchments in Gold Coast. For comparison, simulation outcomes from the same three catchments using commercial modelling software, MIKE URBAN were used. The graphical comparison shows strong agreement of MIKE URBAN result within the upper and lower 95% credible intervals of posterior predictions as obtained via ABC. Statistical validation for posterior predictions of runoff result using coefficient of determination (CD), root mean square error (RMSE) and maximum error (ME) was found reasonable for three study catchments. The main benefit of using ABC over MIKE URBAN is that ABC provides a posterior distribution for runoff flow prediction, and therefore associated uncertainty in predictions can be obtained. In contrast, MIKE URBAN just provides a point estimate. Based on the results of the analysis, it appears as though ABC the developed framework performs well for automatic calibration.

Keywords: automatic calibration framework, approximate bayesian computation, hydrologic and hydraulic modelling, MIKE URBAN software, R platform

Procedia PDF Downloads 309