Search results for: dynamic Bayesian networks

Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

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Construction projects are complex and often subject to significant cost overruns due to the multifaceted nature of the activities involved. Accurate cost estimation is crucial for effective budget planning and resource allocation. Traditional methods for predicting overruns often rely on expert judgment or analysis of historical data, which can be time-consuming, subjective, and may fail to consider important factors. However, with the increasing availability of data from construction projects, machine learning techniques can be leveraged to improve the accuracy of overrun predictions. This study applied machine learning algorithms to enhance the prediction of cost overruns in a case study of a construction project. The methodology involved the development and evaluation of two machine learning models: Random Forest and Neural Networks. Random Forest can handle high-dimensional data, capture complex relationships, and provide feature importance estimates. Neural Networks, particularly Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), are capable of automatically learning and modeling complex, non-linear relationships between input features and the target variable. These models can adapt to new data, reduce human bias, and uncover hidden patterns in the dataset. The findings of this study demonstrate that both Random Forest and Neural Networks can significantly improve the accuracy of cost overrun predictions compared to traditional methods. The Random Forest model also identified key cost drivers and risk factors, such as changes in the scope of work and delays in material delivery, which can inform better project risk management. However, the study acknowledges several limitations. First, the findings are based on a single construction project, which may limit the generalizability of the results to other projects or contexts. Second, the dataset, although comprehensive, may not capture all relevant factors influencing cost overruns, such as external economic conditions or political factors. Third, the study focuses primarily on cost overruns, while schedule overruns are not explicitly addressed. Future research should explore the application of machine learning techniques to a broader range of projects, incorporate additional data sources, and investigate the prediction of both cost and schedule overruns simultaneously.

Keywords: cost prediction, machine learning, project management, random forest, neural networks

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Authors: Hasan G. Elmazoghi, Aisha I. Alzayani, Lubna S. Bentaher

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Rainfall is a highly non-linear phenomena, which requires application of powerful supervised data mining techniques for its accurate prediction. In this study the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) technique is used to predict the mean monthly historical rainfall data collected from BENINA station in Benghazi for 31 years, the period of “1977-2006” and the results are compared against the observed values. The specific objective to achieve this goal was to determine the best combination of weather variables to be used as inputs for the ANN model. Several statistical parameters were calculated and an uncertainty analysis for the results is also presented. The best ANN model is then applied to the data of one year (2007) as a case study in order to evaluate the performance of the model. Simulation results reveal that application of ANN technique is promising and can provide reliable estimates of rainfall.

Keywords: neural networks, rainfall, prediction, climatic variables

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Authors: Namrata Mishra

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Health of a person plays a vital role in the collective health of his community and hence the well-being of the society as a whole. But, in today’s fast paced technology driven world, health issues are increasingly being associated with human behaviors – their lifestyle. Social networks have tremendous impact on the health behavior of individuals. Many researchers have used social network analysis to understand human behavior that implicates their social and economic environments. It would be interesting to use a similar analysis to understand human behaviors that have health implications. This paper focuses on concepts of those behavioural analyses that have health implications using social networks analysis and provides possible algorithmic approaches. The results of these approaches can be used by the governing authorities for rolling out health plans, benefits and take preventive measures, while the pharmaceutical companies can target specific markets, helping health insurance companies to better model their insurance plans.

Keywords: breadth first search, directed graph, health behaviors, social network analysis

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Authors: Sonia Besbes, Mahmoud El Hajem, Habib Ben Aissia, Jean Yves Champagne, Jacques Jay

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In this work, we present a computational study for the characterization of the flow in a rectangular bubble column. To simulate the dynamic characteristics of the flow, a three-dimensional transient numerical simulations based on a coupled discrete phase model (DPM) and Volume of Fluid (VOF) model are performed. Modeling of bubble column reactor is often carried out under the assumption of a flat liquid surface with a degassing boundary condition. However, the dynamic behavior of the top surface surmounting the liquid phase will to some extent influence the meandering oscillations of the bubble plume. Therefore it is important to capture the surface behavior, and the assumption of a flat surface may not be applicable. So, the modeling approach needs to account for a dynamic liquid surface induced by the rising bubble plume. The volume of fluid (VOF) model was applied for the liquid and top gas which both interacts with bubbles implemented with a discrete phase model. This model treats the bubbles as Lagrangian particles and the liquid and the top gas as Eulerian phases with a sharp interface. Two-way coupling between Eulerian phases and Lagrangian bubbles are accounted for in a single set continuous phase momentum equation for the mixture of the two Eulerian phases. The effect of gas flow rate on the dynamic and time-averaged flow properties was studied. The time averaged liquid velocity field predicted from simulations and from our previous PIV measurements shows that the liquid is entrained up flow in the wake of the bubbles and down flow near the walls. The simulated and measured vertical velocity profiles exhibit a reasonable agreement looking at the minimum velocity values near the walls and the maximum values at the column center.

Keywords: bubble column, computational fluid dynamics (CFD), coupled DPM and VOF model, hydrodynamics

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Authors: Jun Wang, Ge Zhang

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Machine learning has been used in many areas today. It thrives at reviewing large volumes of data and identifying patterns and trends that might not be apparent to a human. Given the huge potential benefit and the amount of data available in the financial market, it is not surprising to see machine learning applied to various financial products. While future prices of financial securities are extremely difficult to forecast, we study them from a different angle. Instead of trying to forecast future prices, we apply machine learning algorithms to predict the direction of future price movement, in particular, whether a sector Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) would outperform or underperform the market in the next week or in the next month. We apply several machine learning algorithms for this prediction. The algorithms are Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), k-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Decision Tree (DT), Gaussian Naive Bayes (GNB), and Neural Networks (NN). We show that these machine learning algorithms, most notably GNB and NN, have some predictive power in forecasting out-performance and under-performance out of sample. We also try to explore whether it is possible to utilize the predictions from these algorithms to outperform the buy-and-hold strategy of the S&P 500 index. The trading strategy to explore out-performance predictions does not perform very well, but the trading strategy to explore under-performance predictions can earn higher returns than simply holding the S&P 500 index out of sample.

Keywords: machine learning, ETF prediction, dynamic trading, asset allocation

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Authors: Andreas Stollwitzer, Lara Bettinelli, Josef Fink

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The expansion of the high-speed rail network over the past decades has resulted in new challenges for engineers, including traffic-induced resonance vibrations of railway bridges. Excessive resonance-induced speed-dependent accelerations of railway bridges during high-speed traffic can lead to negative consequences such as fatigue symptoms, distortion of the track, destabilisation of the ballast bed, and potentially even derailment. A realistic prognosis of bridge vibrations during high-speed traffic must not only rely on the right choice of an adequate calculation model for both bridge and train but first and foremost on the use of dynamic model parameters which reflect reality appropriately. However, comparisons between measured and calculated bridge vibrations are often characterised by considerable discrepancies, whereas dynamic calculations overestimate the actual responses and therefore lead to uneconomical results. This gap between measurement and calculation constitutes a complex research issue and can be traced to several causes. One major cause is found in the dynamic properties of the ballasted track, more specifically in the persisting, substantial uncertainties regarding the consideration of the ballasted track (mechanical model and input parameters) in dynamic calculations. Furthermore, the discrepancy is particularly pronounced concerning the damping values of the bridge, as conservative values have to be used in the calculations due to normative specifications and lack of knowledge. By using a large-scale test facility, the analysis of the dynamic behaviour of ballasted track has been a major research topic at the Institute of Structural Engineering/Steel Construction at TU Wien in recent years. This highly specialised test facility is designed for isolated research of the ballasted track's dynamic stiffness and damping properties – independent of the bearing structure. Several mechanical models for the ballasted track consisting of one or more continuous spring-damper elements were developed based on the knowledge gained. These mechanical models can subsequently be integrated into bridge models for dynamic calculations. Furthermore, based on measurements at the test facility, model-dependent stiffness and damping parameters were determined for these mechanical models. As a result, realistic mechanical models of the railway bridge with different levels of detail and sufficiently precise characteristic values are available for bridge engineers. Besides that, this contribution also presents another practical application of such a bridge model: Based on the bridge model, determination equations for the damping factor (as Lehr's damping factor) can be derived. This approach constitutes a first-time method that makes the damping factor of a railway bridge calculable. A comparison of this mathematical approach with measured dynamic parameters of existing railway bridges illustrates, on the one hand, the apparent deviation between normatively prescribed and in-situ measured damping factors. On the other hand, it is also shown that a new approach, which makes it possible to calculate the damping factor, provides results that are close to reality and thus raises potentials for minimising the discrepancy between measurement and calculation.

Keywords: ballasted track, bridge dynamics, damping, model design, railway bridges

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Authors: Oscar Vega Camacho, Andrea Vargas, Ellery Ariza

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This paper presents the application of finite dynamic programming, specifically the "Markov Chain" model, as part of the decision making process of a company in the cosmetics sector located in the vicinity of Bogota DC. The objective of this process was to decide whether the company should completely reconstruct its waste water treatment plant or instead optimize the plant through the addition of equipment. The goal of both of these options was to make the required improvements in order to comply with parameters established by national legislation regarding the treatment of waste before it is released into the environment. This technique will allow the company to select the best option and implement a solution for the processing of waste to minimize environmental damage and the acquisition and implementation costs.

Keywords: decision making, markov chain, optimization, waste water

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Authors: Wesam Hamed

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This paper contributes to the existing literature by investigating the impact of political risks on the capital adequacy ratio in the banking sector of Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, which is the first attempt for this nexus to the best of our knowledge. The dynamic panel data model (System‐GMM) showed that political risks significantly decrease the capital adequacy ratio in the banking sector. For this purpose, we used political risks, bank-specific, profitability, and macroeconomic variables that are utilized from the data stream database for the period 2005-2017. The results also actively support the “too big to fail” hypothesis. Finally, the robustness results confirm the conclusions derived from the baseline System‐GMM model.

Keywords: capital adequacy ratio, system GMM, GCC, political risks

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Authors: Balimu Mwiya, Mundia Muya, Chabota Kaliba, Peter Mukalula

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Factors affecting construction unit cost vary depending on a country’s political, economic, social and technological inclinations. Factors affecting construction costs have been studied from various perspectives. Analysis of cost factors requires an appreciation of a country’s practices. Identified cost factors provide an indication of a country’s construction economic strata. The purpose of this paper is to identify the essential factors that affect unit cost estimation and their breakdown using artificial neural networks. Twenty-five (25) identified cost factors in road construction were subjected to a questionnaire survey and employing SPSS factor analysis the factors were reduced to eight. The 8 factors were analysed using the neural network (NN) to determine the proportionate breakdown of the cost factors in a given construction unit rate. NN predicted that political environment accounted 44% of the unit rate followed by contractor capacity at 22% and financial delays, project feasibility, overhead and profit each at 11%. Project location, material availability and corruption perception index had minimal impact on the unit cost from the training data provided. Quantified cost factors can be incorporated in unit cost estimation models (UCEM) to produce more accurate estimates. This can create improvements in the cost estimation of infrastructure projects and establish a benchmark standard to assist the process of alignment of work practises and training of new staff, permitting the on-going development of best practises in cost estimation to become more effective.

Keywords: construction cost factors, neural networks, roadworks, Zambian construction industry

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Authors: Hassan Masoumi, Ahad Salimi, Nazanin Barhemmat, Babak Gholami

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Artificial neural networks have gained a lot of interest as empirical models for their powerful representational capacity, multi input and output mapping characteristics. In fact, most feed-forward networks with nonlinear nodal functions have been proved to be universal approximates. In this paper, we propose a new supervised method for color image classification based on self organizing feature maps (SOFM). This algorithm is based on competitive learning. The method partitions the input space using self-organizing feature maps to introduce the concept of local neighborhoods. Our image classification system entered into RGB image. Experiments with simulated data showed that separability of classes increased when increasing training time. In additional, the result shows proposed algorithms are effective for color image classification.

Keywords: classification, SOFM algorithm, neural network, neighborhood, RGB image

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Authors: Hongshan Guo

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Ground-source heat pumps provide stable and reliable heating and cooling when designed properly. The confounding effect of the borehole depth for a GSHP system, however, is rarely taken into account for any optimization: the determination of the borehole depth usually comes prior to the selection of corresponding system components and thereafter any optimization of the GSHP system. The depth of the borehole is important to any GSHP system because the shallower the borehole, the larger the fluctuation of temperature of the near-borehole soil temperature. This could lead to fluctuations of the coefficient of performance (COP) for the GSHP system in the long term when the heating/cooling demand is large. Yet the deeper the boreholes are drilled, the more the drilling cost and the operational expenses for the circulation. A controller that reads different building load profiles, optimizing for the smallest costs and temperature fluctuation at the borehole wall, eventually providing borehole depth as the output is developed. Due to the nature of the nonlinear dynamic nature of the GSHP system, it was found that between conventional optimal controller problem and model predictive control problem, the latter was found to be more feasible due to a possible history of both the trajectory during the iteration as well as the final output could be computed and compared against. Aside from a few scenarios of different weighting factors, the resulting system costs were verified with literature and reports and were found to be relatively accurate, while the temperature fluctuation at the borehole wall was also found to be within acceptable range. It was therefore determined that the MPC is adequate to optimize for the investment as well as the system performance for various outputs.

Keywords: geothermal borehole, MPC, dynamic modeling, simulation

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Authors: Laidson P. Gomes, Cristina T. Andrade, Eduardo M. Del Aguila, Cameron Alexander, Vânia M. F. Paschoalin

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Chitosan is a natural polysaccharide prepared by the N-deacetylation of chitin. In this study, the physicochemical and antibacterial properties of chitosan nanoparticles, produced by ultrasound irradiation, were evaluated. The physicochemical properties of the nanoparticles were determined by dynamic light scattering and zeta potential analysis. Chitosan nanoparticles inhibited the growth of E. coli. The minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) values were lower than 0.5 mg/mL, and the minimum bactericidal concentration (MBC) values were similar or higher than MIC values. Confocal laser scanning micrographs (CLSM) were used to observe the interaction between E. coli suspensions mixed with FITC-labeled chitosan polymers and nanoparticles.

Keywords: chitosan nanoparticles, dynamic light scattering, zeta potential, confocal microscopy, antibacterial activity

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Authors: J. Ritonja, B. Grcar

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For the synchronous generator simulation and analysis and for the power system stabilizer design and synthesis a mathematical model of synchronous generator is needed. The model has to accurately describe dynamics of oscillations, while at the same time has to be transparent enough for an analysis and sufficiently simplified for design of control system. To study the oscillations of the synchronous generator against to the rest of the power system, the model of the synchronous machine connected to an infinite bus through a transmission line having resistance and inductance is needed. In this paper, the linearized reduced order dynamic model of the synchronous generator connected to the infinite bus is presented and analysed in details. This model accurately describes dynamics of the synchronous generator only in a small vicinity of an equilibrium state. With the digression from the selected equilibrium point the accuracy of this model is decreasing considerably. In this paper, the equations’ descriptions and the parameters’ determinations for the linearized reduced order mathematical model of the synchronous generator are explained and summarized and represent the useful origin for works in the areas of synchronous generators’ dynamic behaviour analysis and synchronous generator’s control systems design and synthesis. The main contribution of this paper represents the detailed analysis of the accuracy of the linearized reduced order dynamic model in the entire synchronous generator’s operating range. Borders of the areas where the linearized reduced order mathematical model represents accurate description of the synchronous generator’s dynamics are determined with the systemic numerical analysis. The thorough eigenvalue analysis of the linearized models in the entire operating range is performed. In the paper, the parameters of the linearized reduced order dynamic model of the laboratory salient poles synchronous generator were determined and used for the analysis. The theoretical conclusions were confirmed with the agreement of experimental and simulation results.

Keywords: eigenvalue analysis, mathematical model, power system stability, synchronous generator

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Authors: Xueli Tang, Lei Zhao, Shenghao Zhu

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This study investigates the income distribution in a dynamic assignment model with human capital accumulation and endogenous firm size. Positive assortative matching between bosses and workers arises in labor market equilibrium. We solve the stationary equilibrium of two endogenous functions, the matching rule and human capital distribution; we also decompose two channels affecting the equilibrium matching rule, firm-size effect, and endogenous distribution effect. Finally, we perform a perturbation analysis of the equilibrium matching rule and the wage function and examine the effects of technology improvement on income inequality.

Keywords: income distribution, matching, human-capital accumulation, firm size, perturbation method

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Authors: Tugce Talay, Kadir Erkan

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In this study, the necessary steps for the design of axial flow permanent magnet motors are shown. The design and analysis of the engine were carried out based on ANSYS Maxwell program. The design parameters of the ANSYS Maxwell program and the artificial neural network system were established in MATLAB and the most efficient design parameters were found with the trained neural network. The results of the Maxwell program and the results of the artificial neural networks are compared and optimal working design parameters are found. The most efficient design parameters were submitted to the ANSYS Maxwell 3D design and the cogging torque was examined and design studies were carried out to reduce the cogging torque.

Keywords: AFPM, ANSYS Maxwell, cogging torque, design optimisation, efficiency, NNTOOL

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Authors: Koray U. Erbas

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Neural networks are appealing for many applications since they are able to learn complex non-linear relationships between input and output data. As the number of neurons and layers in a neural network increase, it is possible to represent more complex relationships with automatically extracted features. Nowadays Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) are widely used in Computer Vision problems such as; classification, object detection, segmentation image editing etc. In this work, Facial Emotion Recognition task is performed by proposed Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)-based DNN architecture using FER2013 Dataset. Moreover, the effects of different hyperparameters (activation function, kernel size, initializer, batch size and network size) are investigated and ablation study results for Pooling Layer, Dropout and Batch Normalization are presented.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, deep learning, deep learning based FER, facial emotion recognition

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Authors: Zeina Merabi, Arij Dao

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The temporal order of information processing in the brain is an important code in many acoustic signals, including speech, music, and animal vocalizations. Despite its significance, surprisingly little is known about its underlying cellular mechanisms and network manifestations. In the songbird telencephalic nucleus HVC, a subset of neurons shows temporal combination sensitivity (TCS). These neurons show a high temporal specificity, responding differently to distinct patterns of spectral elements and their combinations. HVC neuron types include basal-ganglia-projecting HVCX, forebrain-projecting HVCRA, and interneurons (HVC¬INT), each exhibiting distinct cellular, electrophysiological and functional properties. In this work, we develop conductance-based neural network models connecting the different classes of HVC neurons via different wiring scenarios, aiming to explore possible neural mechanisms that orchestrate the combination sensitivity property exhibited by HVCX, as well as replicating in vivo firing patterns observed when TCS neurons are presented with various auditory stimuli. The ionic and synaptic currents for each class of neurons that are presented in our networks and are based on pharmacological studies, rendering our networks biologically plausible. We present for the first time several realistic scenarios in which the different types of HVC neurons can interact to produce this behavior. The different networks highlight neural mechanisms that could potentially help to explain some aspects of combination sensitivity, including 1) interplay between inhibitory interneurons’ activity and the post inhibitory firing of the HVCX neurons enabled by T-type Ca2+ and H currents, 2) temporal summation of synaptic inputs at the TCS site of opposing signals that are time-and frequency- dependent, and 3) reciprocal inhibitory and excitatory loops as a potent mechanism to encode information over many milliseconds. The result is a plausible network model characterizing auditory processing in HVC. Our next step is to test the predictions of the model.

Keywords: combination sensitivity, songbirds, neural networks, spatiotemporal integration

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Authors: Xiaolin Tang, Wei Yang, Xiaoan Chen

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The research described in this paper was aimed at exploring the torsional vibration characteristics of a power-split hybrid powertrain equipped with a dual mass flywheel. The dynamic equations of governing torsional vibration for this hybrid driveline are presented, and the multi-body dynamic model for the powertrain is established with the software of ADAMS. Accordingly, different parameters of dual mass flywheel are investigated by forced vibration to reduce the torsional vibration of hybrid drive train. The analysis shows that the implementation of a dual mass flywheel is an effective way to decrease the torsional vibration of the hybrid powertrain. At last, the optimal combination of parameters yielding the lowest vibration is provided.

Keywords: dual mass flywheel, hybrid electric vehicle, torsional vibration, powertrain, dynamics

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Authors: Tariq Aljuneidi, Akif Asil Bulgak

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Remanufacturing may be defined as the process of bringing used products to “like-new” functional state with warranty to match, and it is one of the most popular product end-of-life scenarios. An efficient remanufacturing network lead to an efficient design of sustainable manufacturing enterprise. In remanufacturing network, products are collected from the customer zone, disassembled and remanufactured at a suitable remanufacturing facility. In this respect, another issue to consider is how the returned product to be remanufactured, in other words, what is the best layout for such facility. In order to achieve a sustainable manufacturing system, Cellular Manufacturing System (CMS) designs are highly recommended, CMSs combine high throughput rates of line layouts with the flexibility offered by functional layouts (job shop). Introducing the CMS while designing a remanufacturing network will benefit the utilization of such a network. This paper presents and analyzes a comprehensive mathematical model for the design of Dynamic Cellular Remanufacturing Systems (DCRSs). In this paper, the proposed model is the first one to date that consider CMS and remanufacturing system simultaneously. The proposed DCRS model considers several manufacturing attributes such as multi-period production planning, dynamic system reconfiguration, duplicate machines, machine capacity, available time for workers, worker assignments, and machine procurement, where the demand is totally satisfied from a returned product. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the proposed model.

Keywords: cellular manufacturing system, remanufacturing, mathematical programming, sustainability

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Authors: Mamouni Mohammed Dhiya Eddine

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This work aims at studying the exploitation of high-speed networks of clusters for distributed storage. Parallel applications running on clusters require both high-performance communications between nodes and efficient access to the storage system. Many studies on network technologies led to the design of dedicated architectures for clusters with very fast communications between computing nodes. Efficient distributed storage in clusters has been essentially developed by adding parallelization mechanisms so that the server(s) may sustain an increased workload. In this work, we propose to improve the performance of distributed storage systems in clusters by efficiently using the underlying high-performance network to access distant storage systems. The main question we are addressing is: do high-speed networks of clusters fit the requirements of a transparent, efficient and high-performance access to remote storage? We show that storage requirements are very different from those of parallel computation. High-speed networks of clusters were designed to optimize communications between different nodes of a parallel application. We study their utilization in a very different context, storage in clusters, where client-server models are generally used to access remote storage (for instance NFS, PVFS or LUSTRE). Our experimental study based on the usage of the GM programming interface of MYRINET high-speed networks for distributed storage raised several interesting problems. Firstly, the specific memory utilization in the storage access system layers does not easily fit the traditional memory model of high-speed networks. Secondly, client-server models that are used for distributed storage have specific requirements on message control and event processing, which are not handled by existing interfaces. We propose different solutions to solve communication control problems at the filesystem level. We show that a modification of the network programming interface is required. Data transfer issues need an adaptation of the operating system. We detail several propositions for network programming interfaces which make their utilization easier in the context of distributed storage. The integration of a flexible processing of data transfer in the new programming interface MYRINET/MX is finally presented. Performance evaluations show that its usage in the context of both storage and other types of applications is easy and efficient.

Keywords: distributed storage, remote file access, cluster, high-speed network, MYRINET, zero-copy, memory registration, communication control, event notification, application programming interface

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Authors: M. Azadi, M. Kalhor

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Excavation of shallow tunnels such as subways in urban areas plays a significant role as a life line and investigation of the soil behavior against tunnel construction is one of the vital subjects studied in the geotechnical scope. Nowadays, urban tunnels are mostly drilled by T.B.Ms and changing the applied forces to tunnel lining is one of the most risky matters while drilling tunnels by these machines. Variation of soil cementation can change the behavior of these forces in the tunnel lining. Therefore, this article is designed to assess the impact of tunnel excavation in different soils and several amounts of cementation on applied loads to tunnel lining under static and dynamic loads. According to the obtained results, changing the cementation of soil will affect the applied loadings to the tunnel envelope significantly. It can be determined that axial force in tunnel lining decreases considerably when soil cementation increases. Also, bending moment and shear force in tunnel lining decreases as the soil cementation increases and causes bending and shear behavior of the segments to improve. Based on the dynamic analyses, as cohesion factor in soil increases, bending moment, axial and shear forces of segments decrease but lining behavior of the tunnel is the same as static state. The results show that decreasing the overburden applied to lining caused by cementation is different in two static and dynamic states.

Keywords: seismic behavior, twin tunnels, tunnel positions, TBM, optimum distance

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Authors: Aderonke Oluseun Akinwumi, Olusola A. Komolaf

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This paper gives information about the wide array of challenges facing both the electric utilities and consumers in the distribution system in developing countries, using Obafemi Awolowo University, Ile-Ife Nigeria as a case study. It also proffers cost-effective solution through remote monitoring, diagnostic and operation of distribution networks without compromising the system reliability. As utilities move from manned and unintelligent networks to completely unmanned smart grids, switching activities at substations and feeders will be managed and controlled remotely by dedicated systems hence this design. The Substation Remote Diagnostic and Operation Solution (sRDOs) would remotely monitor the load on Medium Voltage (MV) and Low Voltage (LV) feeders as well as distribution transformers and allow the utility disconnect non-paying customers with absolutely no extra resource deployment and without interrupting supply to paying customers. The aftermath of the implementation of this design improved the lifetime of key distribution infrastructure by automatically isolating feeders during overload conditions and more importantly erring consumers. This increased the ratio of revenue generated on electricity bills to total network load.

Keywords: electric utility, consumers, remote monitoring, diagnostic, system reliability, manned and unintelligent networks, unmanned smart grids, switching activities, medium voltage, low voltage, distribution transformer

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Authors: Akaash Tawade, Manan Khattar, Lucas Spangher, Costas J. Spanos

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Many grids are increasing the share of renewable energy in their generation mix, which is causing the energy generation to become less controllable. Buildings, which consume nearly 33% of all energy, are a key target for demand response: i.e., mechanisms for demand to meet supply. Understanding the behavior of office workers is a start towards developing demand response for one sector of building technology. The literature notes that dynamic computational modeling can be predictive of individual action, especially given that occupant behavior is traditionally abstracted from demand forecasting. Recent work founded on Social Cognitive Theory (SCT) has provided a promising conceptual basis for modeling behavior, personal states, and environment using control theoretic principles. Here, an adapted linear dynamical system of latent states and exogenous inputs is proposed to simulate energy demand amongst office workers engaged in a social energy shifting game. The energy shifting competition is implemented in an office in Singapore that is connected to a minigrid of buildings with a consistent 'price signal.' This signal is translated into a 'points signal' by a reinforcement learning (RL) algorithm to influence participant energy use. The dynamic model functions at the intersection of the points signals, baseline energy consumption trends, and SCT behavioral inputs to simulate future outcomes. This study endeavors to analyze how the dynamic model trains an RL agent and, subsequently, the degree of accuracy to which load deferability can be simulated. The results offer a generalizable behavioral model for energy competitions that provides the framework for further research on transfer learning for RL, and more broadly— transactive control.

Keywords: energy demand forecasting, social cognitive behavioral modeling, social game, transfer learning

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Authors: Hao Wang, Shengchun Wang, Weidong Wang

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On the influence of train vibration and environmental noise on the measurement of track wear, we proposed a method for automatic extraction of circular arc on the inner or outer side of the rail waist and achieved the high-precision registration of rail profile. Firstly, a polynomial fitting method based on truncated residual histogram was proposed to find the optimal fitting curve of the profile and reduce the influence of noise on profile curve fitting. Then, based on the curvature distribution characteristics of the fitting curve, the interval search algorithm based on dynamic window’s maximum curvature entropy was proposed to realize the automatic segmentation of small circular arc. At last, we fit two circle centers as matching reference points based on small circular arcs on both sides and realized the alignment from the measured profile to the standard designed profile. The static experimental results show that the mean and standard deviation of the method are controlled within 0.01mm with small measurement errors and high repeatability. The dynamic test also verified the repeatability of the method in the train-running environment, and the dynamic measurement deviation of rail wear is within 0.2mm with high repeatability.

Keywords: curvature entropy, profile registration, rail wear, structured light, train-running

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Authors: Purva Joshi, Rohit Thanki, Omar Hanif

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Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) are becoming increasingly important in various industrial applications and sectors. Nowadays, a multi UAV network is used for specific types of communication (e.g., military) and monitoring purposes. Therefore, it is critical to reducing propagation delay during communication between UAVs, which is essential in a multi UAV network. This paper presents how the propagation delay between the base station (BS) and the UAVs is reduced using a searching algorithm. Furthermore, the iterative-based K-nearest neighbor (k-NN) algorithm and Travelling Salesmen Problem (TSP) algorthm were utilized to optimize the distance between BS and individual UAV to overcome the problem of propagation delay in multi UAV networks. The simulation results show that this proposed method reduced complexity, improved reliability, and reduced propagation delay in multi UAV networks.

Keywords: multi UAV network, optimal distance, propagation delay, K - nearest neighbor, traveling salesmen problem

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Authors: Won-Seok Kim, Hyung-Ik Shin

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Self-rated health (SRH) is a subjective assessment of individual health and has been identified as a strong predictor for mortality and morbidity. However few studies have been directed to the factors associated with SRH in persons with disabilities (PWD). We used data of 7th Korean national survey for 5307 PWD in 2008. Multiple logistic regression analysis was performed to find out independent risk factors for poor SRH in PWD. As a result, indicators of physical condition (poor instrumental ADL), socioeconomic disadvantages (poor education, economically inactive, low self-rated social class, medicaid in health insurance, presence of unmet need for hospital use) and social participation and networks (no use of internet service) were selected as independent risk factors for poor SRH in final model. Findings in the present study would be helpful in making a program to promote the health and narrow the gap of health status between the PWD.

Keywords: disabilities, risk factors, self-rated health, socioeconomic disadvantages, social networks

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Authors: Chaitanya Chawla, Divya Panwar, Gurneesh Singh Anand, M. P. S Bhatia

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This paper presents a deep-learning mechanism for classifying computer generated images and photographic images. The proposed method accounts for a convolutional layer capable of automatically learning correlation between neighbouring pixels. In the current form, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) will learn features based on an image's content instead of the structural features of the image. The layer is particularly designed to subdue an image's content and robustly learn the sensor pattern noise features (usually inherited from image processing in a camera) as well as the statistical properties of images. The paper was assessed on latest natural and computer generated images, and it was concluded that it performs better than the current state of the art methods.

Keywords: image forensics, computer graphics, classification, deep learning, convolutional neural networks

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Authors: Walid Moudani

Abstract:

The healthcare environment is generally perceived as being information rich yet knowledge poor. However, there is a lack of effective analysis tools to discover hidden relationships and trends in data. In fact, valuable knowledge can be discovered from application of data mining techniques in healthcare system. In this study, a proficient methodology for the extraction of significant patterns from the coronary heart disease warehouses for heart attack prediction, which unfortunately continues to be a leading cause of mortality in the whole world, has been presented. For this purpose, we propose to enumerate dynamically the optimal subsets of the reduced features of high interest by using rough sets technique associated to dynamic programming. Therefore, we propose to validate the classification using Random Forest (RF) decision tree to identify the risky heart disease cases. This work is based on a large amount of data collected from several clinical institutions based on the medical profile of patient. Moreover, the experts’ knowledge in this field has been taken into consideration in order to define the disease, its risk factors, and to establish significant knowledge relationships among the medical factors. A computer-aided system is developed for this purpose based on a population of 525 adults. The performance of the proposed model is analyzed and evaluated based on set of benchmark techniques applied in this classification problem.

Keywords: multi-classifier decisions tree, features reduction, dynamic programming, rough sets

Procedia PDF Downloads 393

Authors: Komal Rathore, Aydin Sunol, Gita Iranipour, Luke Mulford

Abstract:

Advanced wastewater treatment plants have complex biological kinetics, time variant influent flow rates and long processing times. Due to these factors, the modeling and operational control of advanced wastewater treatment plants become complicated. However, development of a robust model for advanced wastewater treatment plants has become necessary in order to increase the efficiency of the plants, reduce energy costs and meet the discharge limits set by the government. A dynamic model was designed using the Envirosim (Canada) platform software called BioWin for several wastewater treatment plants in Hillsborough County, Florida. Proper control strategies for various parameters such as mixed liquor suspended solids, recycle activated sludge and waste activated sludge were developed for models to match the plant performance. The models were tuned using both the influent and effluent data from the plant and their laboratories. The plant SCADA was used to predict the influent wastewater rates and concentration profiles as a function of time. The kinetic parameters were tuned based on sensitivity analysis and trial and error methods. The dynamic models were validated by using experimental data for influent and effluent parameters. The dissolved oxygen measurements were taken to validate the model by coupling them with Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) models. The Biowin models were able to exactly mimic the plant performance and predict effluent behavior for extended periods. The models are useful for plant engineers and operators as they can take decisions beforehand by predicting the plant performance with the use of BioWin models. One of the important findings from the model was the effects of recycle and wastage ratios on the mixed liquor suspended solids. The model was also useful in determining the significant kinetic parameters for biological wastewater treatment systems.

Keywords: BioWin, kinetic modeling, flowsheet simulation, dynamic modeling

Procedia PDF Downloads 135

Authors: Ulas Vural, M. Ergun Okay, E. Mesut Yildiz

Abstract:

Telecommunication service providers demand accurate and precise prediction of customer churn probabilities to increase the effectiveness of their customer relation services. The large amount of customer data owned by the service providers is suitable for analysis by machine learning methods. In this study, expenditure data of customers are analyzed by using an artificial neural network (ANN). The ANN model is applied to the data of customers with different billing duration. The proposed model successfully predicts the churn probabilities at 83% accuracy for only three months expenditure data and the prediction accuracy increases up to 89% when the nine month data is used. The experiments also show that the accuracy of ANN model increases on an extended feature set with information of the changes on the bill amounts.

Keywords: customer relationship management, churn prediction, telecom industry, deep learning, artificial neural networks

Procedia PDF Downloads 127