Search results for: loss model

Authors: Francesco Pandolfi, Georgios Baltzopoulos, Iunio Iervolino

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The impact of extreme winds on industrial assets and the built environment is gaining increasing attention from stakeholders, including the corporate insurance industry. This has led to a progressively more in-depth study of building vulnerability and fragility to wind. Wind vulnerability models are used in probabilistic risk assessment to relate a loss metric to an intensity measure of the natural event, usually a gust or a mean wind speed. In fact, vulnerability models can be integrated with the wind hazard, which consists of associating a probability to each intensity level in a time interval (e.g., by means of return periods) to provide an assessment of future losses due to extreme wind. This has also given impulse to the world- and regional-scale wind hazard studies.Another approach often adopted for the probabilistic description of building vulnerability to the wind is the use of fragility functions, which provide the conditional probability that selected building components will exceed certain damage states, given wind intensity. In fact, in wind engineering literature, it is more common to find structural system- or component-level fragility functions rather than wind vulnerability models for an entire building. Loss assessment based on component fragilities requires some logical combination rules that define the building’s damage state given the damage state of each component and the availability of a consequence model that provides the losses associated with each damage state. When risk calculations are based on numerical simulation of a structure’s behavior during extreme wind scenarios, the interaction of component fragilities is intertwined with the computational procedure. However, simulation-based approaches are usually computationally demanding and case-specific. In this context, the present work introduces the ExtReMe wind risk assESsment prototype Software, ERMESS, which is being developed at the University of Naples Federico II. ERMESS is a wind risk assessment tool for insurance applications to industrial facilities, collecting a wide assortment of available wind vulnerability models and fragility functions to facilitate their incorporation into risk calculations based on in-built or user-defined wind hazard data. This software implements an alternative method for building-specific risk assessment based on existing component-level fragility functions and on a number of simplifying assumptions for their interactions. The applicability of this alternative procedure is explored by means of an illustrative proof-of-concept example, which considers four main building components, namely: the roof covering, roof structure, envelope wall and envelope openings. The application shows that, despite the simplifying assumptions, the procedure can yield risk evaluations that are comparable to those obtained via more rigorous building-level simulation-based methods, at least in the considered example. The advantage of this approach is shown to lie in the fact that a database of building component fragility curves can be put to use for the development of new wind vulnerability models to cover building typologies not yet adequately covered by existing works and whose rigorous development is usually beyond the budget of portfolio-related industrial applications.

Keywords: component wind fragility, probabilistic risk assessment, vulnerability model, wind-induced losses

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Authors: Baba John, Abdullahi Mohammed

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The aim of this research is to compare the analysis of biodegradation on polythene and plastics buried in fadama soil amended with Organic and Inorganic fertilizer. Physico- chemical properties of the samples were determined. Bacteria and Fungi implicated in the biodegradation were identified and enumerated. Physico- chemical properties before the analysis indicated pH range of the samples from 4.28 – 5.80 , While the percentage Organic carbon and Organic matter was highest in cow dung samples with 3.89% and 6.69% respectively. The total Nitrogen percentage was recorded to be highest in Chicken dropping (0.68), while the availability of Phosphorus (P), Sodium (Na), Pottasium (K), and Magnessium (mg) was recorded to be highest in F – soil (Control), with values to be 37ppm, 1.63 Cmolkg-1, 0.35 Cmolkg-1 and 1.18 Cmolkg-1 respectively, except for calcium which was recorded to be highest in Cow dung (5.80 Cmolkg-1). However, physico – chemical properties of the samples after analysis indicated pH range of 4.6 – 5.80, Percentage Organic carbon and Organic matter was highest in Fadama soil mixed with fertilizer, having 0.7% and 1.2% respectively. Total Percentage Nitrogen content was found to be highest (0.56) in Fadama soil mixed with poultry dropping. Availability of Sodium (Na), Pottasium (K), and Calcium (Ca) was recorded to be highest in Fadama Soil mixed with Cow dung with values to be 0.64 Cmolkg-1, 2.07 Cmolkg-1 and 3.36 Cmolkg-1 respectively. The percentage weight loss of polythene and plastic bags after nine months in fadama soil mixed with poultry dropping was 11.9% for polythene and 6.0% for plastics. Weight loss in fadama soil mixed with cow dung was 18.1% for polythene and 4.7% for plastics. Weight loss of polythene and plastic in fadama soil mixed with fertilizer (NPK) was 7.4% for polythene and 3.3% for plastics. While, the percentage weight loss of polythene and plastics after nine months of burial in fadama soil (control) was 3.5% and 0.0% respectively. The bacteria species isolated from Fadama soil, organic and inorganic fertilizers before amendments include: S. aureus, Micrococcus sp, Streptococcus. pyogenes, Psuedomonas aeruginosa Bacillus subtilis and Bacillus cereus. The fungi species include: Aspergillus niger, Aspergillus fumigatus, Aspergillus flavus, Fusarium sp, Mucor sp Penicillium sp and Candida sp. The bacteria species isolated and characterized after nine months of seeding include: S. aureus, Micrococcus sp, S. pyogenes, P. aeruginosa and B. subtilis. The fungi species are: A. niger A. flavus, A. fumigatus, Mucor sp, Penicillium sp and Fusarium sp. The result of this study indicated that plastic materials can be degraded in the fadama soil irrespective of whether the soil is amended or not. The Period of composting also has a significant impact on the rate at which polythene and plastics are degraded.

Keywords: Fadama, fertilizer, plastic and polythene, biodegradation

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Authors: Babarina Maria, Andropova Margarita

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Introduction: Hypoparathyroidism (HypoPT) is a rare endocrine disorder with an estimated prevalence of 0.25 per 1000 individuals. The most common cause of HypoPT is the loss of active parathyroid tissue following thyroid or parathyroid surgery. Sometimes permanent postoperative HypoPT occures, manifested by hypocalcemia in combination with low levels of PTH during 6 months or more after surgery. Cognitive impairments in patients with hypocalcemia due to chronic HypoPT are observed, and this can lead to problems and challenges in everyday living: memory loss and impaired concentration, that may be the cause of poor compliance. Clinical case: Patient K., 66 years old, underwent thyroidectomy in 2013 (at the age of 55) because of papillary thyroid cancer T1NxMx, histopathology findings confirmed the diagnosis. 5 years after the surgery, she was followed up on an outpatient basis, TSH levelsonly were monitored, and the dose of levothyroxine was adjusted. In 2018 due to, increasing complaints include tingling and cramps in the arms and legs, memory loss, sleep disorder, fatigue, anxiety, hair loss, muscle pain, tachycardia, positive Chvostek, and Trousseau signs were diagnosed during examination, also in blood analyses: total Ca 1.86 mmol/l (2.15-2.55), Ca++ 0.96 mmol/l (1.12-1.3), P 1.55 mmol/l (0.74-1.52), Mg 0.79 mmol/l (0.66-1.07) - chronic postoperative HypoPT was diagnosed. Therapy was initiated: alfacalcidol 0.5 mcg per day, calcium carbonate 2000 mg per day, cholecalciferol 1000 IU per day, magnesium orotate 3000 mg per day. During the case follow-up, hypocalcemia, hyperphosphatemia persisted, hypercalciuria15.7 mmol/day (2.5-6.5) was diagnosed. Dietary recommendations were given because of the high content of phosphorus rich foods, and therapy was adjusted: the dose of alfacalcidol was increased to 2.5 mcg per day, and the dose of calcium carbonate was reduced to 1500 mg per day. As part of the screening for complications of hypoPT, data for cataracts, Fahr syndrome, nephrocalcinosis, and kidney stone disease were not obtained. However, HypoPT compensation was not achieved, and therefore hydrochlorothiazide 25 mg was initiated, the dose of alfacalcidol was increased to 3 mcg per day, calcium carbonate to 3000 mg per day, magnesium orotate and cholecalciferol were continued at the same doses. Therapeutic goals were achieved: calcium phosphate product <4.4 mmol2/l2, there were no episodes of hypercalcemia, twenty-four-hour urinary calcium excretion was significantly reduced. Conclusion: Timely prescription, careful explanation of drugs usage rules, and monitoring and maintaining blood and urine parameters within the target contribute to the prevention of HypoPT complications development and life-threatening events.

Keywords: hypoparathyroidism, hypocalcemia, hyperphosphatemia, hypercalciuria

Procedia PDF Downloads 89

Authors: A. Bayaga

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This research provides a technical account of estimating Transition Probability using Time-homogeneous Markov Jump Process applying by South African HIV/AIDS data from the Statistics South Africa. It employs Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) model to explore the possible influence of Transition Probability of mortality cases in which case the data was based on actual Statistics South Africa. This was conducted via an integrated demographic and epidemiological model of South African HIV/AIDS epidemic. The model was fitted to age-specific HIV prevalence data and recorded death data using MLE model. Though the previous model results suggest HIV in South Africa has declined and AIDS mortality rates have declined since 2002 – 2013, in contrast, our results differ evidently with the generally accepted HIV models (Spectrum/EPP and ASSA2008) in South Africa. However, there is the need for supplementary research to be conducted to enhance the demographic parameters in the model and as well apply it to each of the nine (9) provinces of South Africa.

Keywords: AIDS mortality rates, epidemiological model, time-homogeneous markov jump process, transition probability, statistics South Africa

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Authors: Morteza Giti

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As online shopping is becoming increasingly popular, computing customer lifetime value for better knowing the customers is also gaining more importance. Two distinct factors that can affect the value of a customer in the context of online shopping is the number of returned orders and payment method. Returned orders are those which have been shipped but not collected by the customer and are returned to the store. Payment method refers to the way that customers choose to pay for the price of the order which are usually two: Pre-pay and Cash-on-delivery. In this paper, a novel model called RFMSP is presented to calculated the customer lifetime value, taking these two parameters into account. The RFMSP model is based on the common RFM model while adding two extra parameter. The S represents the order status and the P indicates the payment method. As a case study for this model, the purchase history of customers in an online shop is used to compute the customer lifetime value over a period of twenty months.

Keywords: RFMSP model, AHP, customer lifetime value, k-means clustering, e-commerce

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Authors: B. Engel, H. Hassan

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Rotary draw bending is a method which is being used in tube forming. In the tube bending process, the neutral axis moves towards the inner arc and the wall thickness distribution changes for tube’s cross section. Thinning takes place in the outer arc of the tube (extrados) due to the stretching of the material, whereas thickening occurs in the inner arc of the tube (intrados) due to the comparison of the material. The calculations of the wall thickness distribution, neutral axis shifting, and strain distribution have not been accurate enough, so far. The previous model (the geometrical model) describes the neutral axis shifting and wall thickness distribution. The geometrical of the tube, bending radius and bending angle are considered in the geometrical model, while the influence of the material properties of the tube forming are ignored. The advanced model is a modification of the previous model using material properties that depends on the correction factor. The correction factor is a purely empirically determined factor. The advanced model was compared with the Finite element simulation (FE simulation) using a different bending factor (Bf=bending radius/ diameter of the tube), wall thickness (Wf=diameter of the tube/ wall thickness), and material properties (strain hardening exponent). Finite element model of rotary draw bending has been performed in PAM-TUBE program (version: 2012). Results from the advanced model resemble the FE simulation and the experimental test.

Keywords: rotary draw bending, material properties, neutral axis shifting, wall thickness distribution

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Authors: Guorong Sui, Xingwei Jia, Fei Tong, Xiumin Gao

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Camera calibration is a fundamental issue of high precision noncontact measurement. And it is necessary to analyze and study the reliability and application range of its linear model which is often used in the camera calibration. According to the imaging features of monocular cameras, a camera model which is based on the image pixel coordinates and three dimensional space coordinates is built. Using our own customized template, the image pixel coordinate is obtained by the subpixel corner detection method. Without considering the aberration of the optical system, the feature extraction and linearity analysis of the line segment in the template are performed. Moreover, the experiment is repeated 11 times by constantly varying the measuring distance. At last, the linearity of the camera is achieved by fitting 11 groups of data. The camera model measurement results show that the relative error does not exceed 1%, and the repeated measurement error is not more than 0.1 mm magnitude. Meanwhile, it is found that the model has some measurement differences in the different region and object distance. The experiment results show this linear model is simple and practical, and have good linearity within a certain object distance. These experiment results provide a powerful basis for establishment of the linear model of camera. These works will have potential value to the actual engineering measurement.

Keywords: camera linear model, geometric imaging relationship, image pixel coordinates, three dimensional space coordinates, sub-pixel corner detection

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Authors: Nazmin Akter, Tariqul Islam, Abu Sayed

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Food loss and waste have become critical global issues, with approximately one-third of the world's food production being wasted. Among the various food products, horticultural fruits and vegetables are especially susceptible to loss due to their relatively short shelf lives. Litchi (Litchi chinensis) is one of Bangladesh's most important horticultural fruits. But the problem with this fruit is its short shelf life by losing weight faster after harvest. The experiment was carried out at Hajee Mohammad Danesh Science and Technology University, Dinajpur-5200 Bangladesh during 2020-2021. The objective of this experiment was to see the impact of nutrients viz., urea (1%), calcium chloride (1%), borax (1%), and their combinations on fruit quality and shelf life of litchi cv. Bombai. The experiment was laid out in a randomized block design with 7 treatments and 3 replications. Two sprays of each treatment were applied from the last week of May to June (at 20-day intervals). The results indicated that all the treatments significantly improved the quality parameters of litchi fruits as compared to the control. In terms of physicochemical characteristics fruit weight (20.30g), fruit volume (20m ml), and pulp percent (17.14) were found maximum with minimum stone percent (11.09) with the application of urea 1% + borax 1%+ calcium chloride 1%. Maximum TSS (19.62oBrix), TSS/acidity ratio (24.57), maximum ascorbic acid (45.19 mg/100 g pulp), and minimum acidity (0.80%) were reported with the application of T6 (Urea 1% + borax 1%+ calcium chloride 1%) treatments whereas fruits treated with urea 1% + borax 1% gave maximum total sugars (26.64%) and reducing sugars (19.19%) as compared to control. In the case of storage characters, application of Urea 1% + borax 1%+ calcium chloride 1% resulted in a minimum physiological loss in weight (6.11%), (8.41%), and (10.65%) for 2 days, 4 days, and 6 days respectively. In conclusion, to obtain better quality and increased storage period of litchi fruits, two sprays of urea, borax, and calcium chloride (1%) could be used during the fruit growth and development period at fortnightly intervals.

Keywords: litchi chinensis, preharvest, quality, shelf life, postharvest

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Authors: Ofosuhene O. Apenteng, Noor Azina Ismail

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Over the last several years, concern has developed over how to minimize the spread of HIV/AIDS epidemic in many countries. AIDS epidemic has tremendously stimulated the development of mathematical models of infectious diseases. The transmission dynamics of HIV infection that eventually developed AIDS has taken a pivotal role of much on building mathematical models. From the initial HIV and AIDS models introduced in the 80s, various improvements have been taken into account as how to model HIV/AIDS frameworks. In this paper, we present the impact of migration on the spread of HIV/AIDS. Epidemic model is considered by a system of nonlinear differential equations to supplement the statistical method approach. The model is calibrated using HIV incidence data from Malaysia between 1986 and 2011. Bayesian inference based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to validate the model by fitting it to the data and to estimate the unknown parameters for the model. The results suggest that the migrants stay for a long time contributes to the spread of HIV. The model also indicates that susceptible individual becomes infected and moved to HIV compartment at a rate that is more significant than the removal rate from HIV compartment to AIDS compartment. The disease-free steady state is unstable since the basic reproduction number is 1.627309. This is a big concern and not a good indicator from the public heath point of view since the aim is to stabilize the epidemic at the disease equilibrium.

Keywords: epidemic model, HIV, MCMC, parameter estimation

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Authors: Naragain Phumchusri, Kittitach Pongpairoj

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Overbooking is a very useful revenue management technique that could help reduce costs caused by either undersales or oversales. In this paper, we propose an overbooking model for two types of cars that can minimize the total cost for car rental service. With two types of cars, there is an upgrade possibility for lower type to upper type. This makes the model more complex than one type of cars scenario. We have found that convexity can be proved in this case. Sensitivity analysis of the parameters is conducted to observe the effects of relevant parameters on the optimal solution. Model simplification is proposed using multiple linear regression analysis, which can help estimate the optimal overbooking level using appropriate independent variables. The results show that the overbooking level from multiple linear regression model is relatively close to the optimal solution (with the adjusted R-squared value of at least 72.8%). To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, the total cost was compared with the case where the decision maker uses a naïve method for the overbooking level. It was found that the total cost from optimal solution is only 0.5 to 1 percent (on average) lower than the cost from regression model, while it is approximately 67% lower than the cost obtained by the naïve method. It indicates that our proposed simplification method using regression analysis can effectively perform in estimating the overbooking level.

Keywords: overbooking, car rental industry, revenue management, stochastic model

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Authors: W. Hasan, H. Farhat, A. Alhilo, L. Tamimi

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Oil in water (O/W) emulsions are utilized extensively for cooling and lubricating cutting tools during parts machining. A robust Lattice Boltzmann (LBM) thermal-surfactants model, which provides a useful platform for exploring complex emulsions’ characteristics under variety of flow conditions, is used here for the study of the fluid behavior during conventional tools cooling. The transient thermal capabilities of the model are employed for simulating the effects of the flow conditions of O/W emulsions on the cooling of cutting tools. The model results show that the temperature outcome is slightly affected by reversing the direction of upper plate (workpiece). On the other hand, an important increase in effective viscosity is seen which supports better lubrication during the work.

Keywords: hybrid lattice Boltzmann method, Gunstensen model, thermal, surfactant-covered droplet, Marangoni stress

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Authors: Abul Hashem

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The experiment was conducted to find out the effect of different levels of Moringa oleifiera leaf extract and synthetic antioxidant (Beta Hydroxyl Anisole) on fresh and preserved beef meatballs. For this purpose, ground beef samples were divided into five treatment groups. They are treated as control, synthetic antioxidant, 0.1%, 0.2% and 0.3% Moringa oleifera leaf extract as T1, T2, T3, T4 and T5, respectively. Five kinds of meatballs were made and biscuit crushed and egg albumin was mixed with beef meatballs and cooking was practiced properly. Proximate analysis, sensory tests (color, flavor, tenderness, juiciness, overall acceptability), cooking loss, pH value, free fatty acids (FFA), thiobarbituric acid values (TBARS), peroxide value(POV) and microbiological examination were determined in order to evaluate the effect of Moringa oleifiera leaf extract as natural antioxidant & antimicrobial activities in comparing to BHA (Beta Hydroxyl Anisole) at first day before freezing and for maintaining meatballs qualities on the shelf life of beef meat balls stored for 60 days under frozen condition. Freezing temperature was -20˚C. Days of intervals of experiment were on 0, 15th, 30th, and 60th days. Dry matter content of all the treatment groups differ significantly (p<0.05). On the contrary, DM content increased significantly (p<0.05) with the advancement of different days of intervals. CP content of all the treatments were increased significantly (p<0.05) among the different treatment groups. EE content at different treatment levels differ significantly (p<0.05). Ash content at different treatment levels was also differ significantly (p<0.05). FFA values, TBARS, POV were decreased significantly (p<0.05) at different treatment levels. Color, odor, tenderness, juiciness, overall acceptability, raw PH, cooked pH were increased at different treatment levels significantly (p<0.05). The cooking loss (%) at different treatment levels were differ significantly (p<0.05). TVC (logCFU/g), TCC (logCFU/g) and TYMC (logCFU/g) was decreased significantly (p<0.05) at different treatment levels comparison to control. Considering CP, tenderness, juiciness, overall acceptability, cooking loss, FFA, POV, TBARS and microbial parameters it can be concluded that Moringa oleifera leaf extract at 0.1%, 0.2% and 0.3% can be used instead of 0.1% synthetic antioxidant BHA in beef meatballs.

Keywords: antioxidant, beef meatball, BHA, moringa leaf extract, quality

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Authors: Reyhaneh Saeedi, Nima Ghasemloo

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Iran is a capable zone for earthquake that follows loss of lives and financial damages. To have sheltering for earthquake victims is one of the basic requirements although it is hard to select suitable places for temporary resettling after an earthquake happens. Before these kinds of disasters happen, the best places for resettling the victims must be designated. This matter is an important issue in disaster management and planning. Geospatial Information System (GIS) has a determining role in disaster management; it can determine the best places for temporary resettling after such a disaster. In this paper the best criteria have been determined associated with their weights and buffers by use of research and questionnaire for locating the best places. In this paper, AHP method is used as decision model and to locate the best places for temporary resettling is done based on the selected criteria. Also in this research are made the buffer layers of criteria and change them to the raster layers. Later on, the raster layers are multiplied on desired weights then, the results are added together. Finally there are suitable places for resettling of victims by desired criteria by different colors with their optimum rate in QGIS software.

Keywords: disaster management, temporary resettlement, earthquake, criteria

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Authors: Prejily Thomas John

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Flooding of urban areas often has an adverse impact on the dense population residing in cities. The vulnerable areas are the most affected due to flooding, which even results in loss of life. The increasing trend of urban floods is a universal phenomenon and leads to a vital loss in the physical, economic, social, and environmental dimensions. The shift from floods being natural disasters to man-made disasters due to unplanned urban growth is evident from national and international reports. Thiruvalla, bordered by the Manimala River in the Pathanamthitta district, is an important urban node and a drainage point of various estuaries. The city is often faced with flash floods and overflow from rivers since it is a low-lying land. The need for urban flood resilience for planned urban development is a necessity for livability in consideration of the topography. The paper focuses on developing an urban design framework in everyday urban spaces through the principles of resilient urbanism. The principles guide the creation of flood-resilient spaces and productive urban landscapes for the city to enable better and safer living conditions. A flood-resilient city not only prepares the city for disasters but also improves the ecological and economic conditions.

Keywords: everyday urban spaces, flood resilience, resilient urbanism, productive urban landscapes

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Authors: Mohammadreza Mohebbi, Masoumeh Sanagou

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The ability to predict clinical outcomes is of great importance to physicians and clinicians. A number of different methods have been used in an effort to accurately predict these outcomes. These methods include the development of scoring systems based on multivariate statistical modelling, and models involving the use of classification and regression trees. The process usually consists of two consecutive phases, namely model development and external validation. The model development phase consists of building a multivariate model and evaluating its predictive performance by examining calibration and discrimination, and internal validation. External validation tests the predictive performance of a model by assessing its calibration and discrimination in different but plausibly related patients. A motivate example focuses on prediction modeling using a sample of patients undergone coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) has been used for illustrative purpose and a set of primary considerations for evaluating prediction model studies using specific quality indicators as criteria to help stakeholders evaluate the quality of a prediction model study has been proposed.

Keywords: clinical prediction models, clinical decision rule, prognosis, external validation, model calibration, biostatistics

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Authors: V. K. Srivastava

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Graphene has recently attracted an increasing attention in nanocomposites applications because it has 200 times greater strength than steel, making it the strongest material ever tested. Graphene, as the fundamental two-dimensional (2D) carbon structure with exceptionally high crystal and electronic quality, has emerged as a rapidly rising star in the field of material science. Graphene, as defined, as a 2D crystal, is composed of monolayers of carbon atoms arranged in a honeycombed network with six-membered rings, which is the interest of both theoretical and experimental researchers worldwide. The name comes from graphite and alkene. Graphite itself consists of many graphite-sheets stacked together by weak van der Waals forces. This is attributed to the monolayer of carbon atoms densely packed into honeycomb structure. Due to superior inherent properties of graphene nanoplatelets (GnP) over other nanofillers, GnP particles were added in epoxy resin with the variation of weight percentage. It is indicated that the DMA results of storage modulus, loss modulus and tan δ, defined as the ratio of elastic modulus and imaginary (loss) modulus versus temperature were affected with addition of GnP in the epoxy resin. In epoxy resin, damping (tan δ) is usually caused by movement of the molecular chain. The tan δ of the graphene nanoplatelets/epoxy resin composite is much lower than that of epoxy resin alone. This finding suggests that addition of graphene nanoplatelets effectively impedes movement of the molecular chain. The decrease in storage modulus can be interpreted by an increasing susceptibility to agglomeration, leading to less energy dissipation in the system under viscoelastic deformation. The results indicates the tan δ increased with the increase of temperature, which confirms that tan δ is associated with magnetic field strength. Also, the results show that the nanohardness increases with increase of elastic modulus marginally. GnP filled epoxy resin gives higher value than the epoxy resin, because GnP improves the mechanical properties of epoxy resin. Debonding of GnP is clearly observed in the micrograph having agglomeration of fillers and inhomogeneous distribution. Therefore, DMA and nanohardness studies indiacte that the elastic modulus of epoxy resin is increased with the addition of GnP fillers.

Keywords: agglomeration, elastic modulus, epoxy resin, graphene nanoplatelet, loss modulus, nanohardness, storage modulus

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Dahmardeh Ghaleno, Mohammad Nohtani, Saeedeh Khaledi

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Hydrological models are applied to simulation and prediction floods in watersheds. WetSpa is a distributed, continuous and physically model with daily or hourly time step that explains of precipitation, runoff and evapotranspiration processes for both simple and complex contexts. This model uses a modified rational method for runoff calculation. In this model, runoff is routed along the flow path using Diffusion-Wave Equation which depend on the slope, velocity and flow route characteristics. Garmabrood watershed located in Mazandaran province in Iran and passing over coordinates 53° 10´ 55" to 53° 38´ 20" E and 36° 06´ 45" to 36° 25´ 30"N. The area of the catchment is about 1133 km2 and elevations in the catchment range from 213 to 3136 m at the outlet, with average slope of 25.77 %. Results of the simulations show a good agreement between calculated and measured hydrographs at the outlet of the basin. Drawing upon Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Coefficient for calibration periodic model estimated daily hydrographs and maximum flow rate with an accuracy up to 61% and 83.17 % respectively.

Keywords: watershed simulation, WetSpa, runoff, flood prediction

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Authors: Madina Hamiane

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Modelling and simulation of an analogy function generator is presented based on a polynomial expansion model. The proposed function generator model is based on a 10th order polynomial approximation of any of the required functions. The polynomial approximations of these functions can then be implemented using basic CMOS circuit blocks. In this paper, a circuit model is proposed that can simultaneously generate many different mathematical functions. The circuit model is designed and simulated with HSPICE and its performance is demonstrated through the simulation of a number of non-linear functions.

Keywords: modelling and simulation, analog function generator, polynomial approximation, CMOS transistors

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Authors: Maha Bakkari, Fatiha Lemmeni, Rachid Tadili

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In this work, we present some characteristics of the furnace studied, its operating principle and the experimental measurements of the evolutions of the temperatures inside and outside the walls of the This work deals with the problem of energy consumption of pottery kilns whose energy consumption is relatively too high. In this work, we determined the sources of energy loss by studying the heat transfer of a pottery furnace, we proposed a recovery system to reduce energy consumption, and then we developed a numerical model modeling the transfers through the walls of the furnace and to optimize the insulation (reduce heat losses) by testing multiple insulators. The recovery and reuse of energy recovered by the recovery system will present a significant gain in energy consumption of the oven and cooking time. This research is one of the solutions that helps reduce the greenhouse effect of the planet earth, a problem that worries the world.

Keywords: recovery lost energy, energy efficiency, modeling, heat transfer

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Authors: Mohanad Al-Behadili, Djamila Ouelhadj

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In this paper, a specific type of vehicle routing problem under stochastic demand (SVRP) is considered. This problem is of great importance because it models for many of the real world vehicle routing applications. This paper used a robust optimisation model to solve the problem along with the novel Simulation-Particle Swarm Optimisation (Sim-PSO) approach. The proposed Sim-PSO approach is based on the hybridization of the Monte Carlo simulation technique with the PSO algorithm. A comparative study between the proposed model and the Sim-PSO approach against other solution methods in the literature has been given in this paper. This comparison including the Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) to show the ability of the model and solution method in solving the complicated SVRP. The experimental results show that the proposed model and Sim-PSO approach has a significant impact on the obtained solution by providing better quality solutions comparing with well-known algorithms in the literature.

Keywords: stochastic vehicle routing problem, robust optimisation model, Monte Carlo simulation, particle swarm optimisation

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Authors: Adrian Sebastian, Chris Gillespie

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We describe a case of diffuse rectal involvement with cap polyposis, manifesting with a protein-losing colopathy and occurring in the setting of advanced mechanical pelvic floor dysfunction. A 59-year-old male with a 5-year history of persistent excessive flatulence, defecatory difficulties, and diarrhea. He had extensive cap polyposis of the entire rectum endoscopically. His symptoms progressed to severe fecal incontinence with mucus leakage, pelvic pain, weight loss, and hypoalbuminemia. Clinical examination exhibited severe perineal descent, a large rectocele, poor anal squeeze, and a poor defecatory technique. After a trial of nonoperative therapies addressing his defecatory dysfunction, and Helicobacter pylori eradication, surgical resection was offered due to severe symptoms with ongoing incontinence and protein loss with no other reasonable options. A robotic abdominoperineal resection with a permanent colostomy was performed, followed by an uncomplicated recovery. Our observation of coexisting mechanical pelvic floor changes in this patient lends weight to the concept of a prolapse-related phenomenon in the pathophysiology of this rare condition.

Keywords: cap polyposis, pelvic dysfunction, fecal incontinence, case report

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Authors: Vinko Vidučić, Ljiljana Vidučić, Damir Boras

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The goals of the research include the determination of the characteristics of SMEs finance in Croatia, as well as the determination of indirect growth rates of the information model of the entrepreneurs` perception of business environment. The research results show that cost of finance and access to finance are most important constraining factor in setting up and running the business of small entrepreneurs in Croatia. Furthermore, small entrepreneurs in Croatia are significantly dissatisfied with the administrative barriers although relatively to a lesser extent than was the case in the pre-crisis time. High collateral requirement represents the main characteristic of bank lending concerning SMEs followed by long credit elaboration process. Formulated information model has defined the individual impact of indirect growth rates of the remaining variables on the model’s specific variable.

Keywords: business environment, information model, indirect growth rates, SME finance

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Authors: Kaiyuan Chena, Senentxu Lanceros-Méndeza, Laijun Liub, Qi Zhanga

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0.6Bi(Mg1/2Ti1/2)O3-0.4Ba0.8Ca0.2(Nb0.125Ti0.875)O3 (0.6BMT-0.4BCNT) ceramics with a pseudo-cubic structure and re-entrant dipole glass behavior have been investigated via X-ray diffraction and dielectric permittivity-temperature spectra. It shows an excellent dielectric-temperature stability with small variations of dielectric permittivity (± 5%, 420 - 802 K) and dielectric loss tangent (tanδ < 2.5%, 441 - 647 K) in a wide temperature range. Three dielectric anomalies are observed from 290 K to 1050 K. The low-temperature weakly coupled re-entrant relaxor behavior was described using Vogel-Fulcher law and the new glass model. The mid- and high-temperature dielectric anomalies are characterized by isothermal impedance and electrical modulus. The activation energy of both dielectric relaxation and conductivity follows the Arrhenius law in the temperature ranges of 633 - 753 K and 833 - 973 K, respectively. The ultrahigh thermal stability of the dielectric permittivity is attributed to the weakly coupling of polar clusters, the formation of diffuse phase transition (DPT) and the local phase transition of calcium-containing perovskite.

Keywords: permittivity, relaxor, electronic ceramics, activation energy

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Authors: Septiawan A. Saputro, Purnami Widyaningsih, Sutanto Sastraredja

Abstract:

Measles is a disease which can spread caused by a virus and has been a priority’s Ministry of Health in Indonesia to be solved. Each infected person can be recovered and get immunity so that the spread of the disease can be constructed with susceptible infected recovered (SIR). To prevent the spread of measles transmission, the Ministry of Health holds vaccinations program. The aims of the research are to derive susceptible vaccinated infected recovered (SVIR) model, to determine the patterns of disease spread with SVIR model, and also to apply the SVIR model on the spread of measles in Indonesia. Based on the article, it can be concluded that the spread model of measles with vaccinations, that is SVIR model. It is a first-order differential equation system. The patterns of disease spread is determined by solution of the model. Based on that model Indonesia will be a measles-free nation in 2186 with the average of vaccinations scope about 88% and the average score of vaccinations failure about 4.9%. If it is simulated as Ministry of Health new programs with the average of vaccinations scope about 95% and the average score of vaccinations failure about 3%, then Indonesia will be a measles-free nation in 2184. Even with the average of vaccinations scope about 100% and no failure of vaccinations, Indonesia will be a measles-free nation in 2183. Indonesia’s target as a measles-free nation in 2020 has not been reached.

Keywords: measles, vaccination, susceptible infected recovered (SIR), susceptible vaccinated infected recovered (SVIR)

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Authors: A. Elmikaty, Z. Thanawarothon, L. Mezeix

Abstract:

This paper presents a finite element model to simulate the teeth failure of non-circular composite chainring. Model consists of the chainring and a part of the chain. To reduce the size of the model, only the first 11 rollers are simulated. In order to validate the model, it is firstly applied to a circular aluminum chainring and evolution of the stress in the teeth is compared with the literature. Then, effect of the non-circular shape is studied through three different loading positions. Strength of non-circular composite chainring and failure scenario is investigated. Moreover, two composite lay-ups are proposed to observe the influence of the stacking. Results show that composite material can be used but the lay-up has a large influence on the strength. Finally, loading position does not have influence on the first composite failure that always occurs in the first tooth.

Keywords: CFRP, composite failure, FEA, non-circular chainring

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Authors: Salim Yusif

Abstract:

Fiber optic technology has revolutionized telecommunications and data transmission, providing unmatched speed, bandwidth, and reliability. This paper presents the latest advancements in fiber optic technology, focusing on innovations in fiber materials, transmission techniques, and network architectures that enhance the performance of high-speed data transmission systems. Key advancements include the development of ultra-low-loss optical fibers, multi-core fibers, advanced modulation formats, and the integration of fiber optics into next-generation network architectures such as Software-Defined Networking (SDN) and Network Function Virtualization (NFV). Additionally, recent developments in fiber optic sensors are discussed, extending the utility of optical fibers beyond data transmission. Through comprehensive analysis and experimental validation, this research offers valuable insights into the future directions of fiber optic technology, highlighting its potential to drive innovation across various industries.

Keywords: fiber optics, high-speed data transmission, ultra-low-loss optical fibers, multi-core fibers, modulation formats, coherent detection, software-defined networking, network function virtualization, fiber optic sensors

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Authors: Siriraks Khawchaimaha, Sangwian Boonto

Abstract:

Sport Authority of Thailand (SAT) is the state enterprise, promotes and supports all sports kind both professional and athletes for competitions, and administer under government policy and government officers and therefore, all financial supports whether cash inflows and cash outflows are strictly committed to government budget and limited to the planned projects at least 12 to 16 months ahead of reality, as results of ineffective in sport events, administration and competitions. In order to retain in the sports challenges around the world, SAT need to has its own sports business services model by each stadium, region and athletes’ competencies. Based on the HMK model of Khawchaimaha, S. (2007), this research study is formalized into each 10 regional stadiums to details into the characteristics root of fans, athletes, coaches, equipments and facilities, and stadiums. The research designed is firstly the evaluation of external factors: hardware whereby competition or practice of stadiums, playground, facilities, and equipments. Secondly, to understand the software of the organization structure, staffs and management, administrative model, rules and practices. In addition, budget allocation and budget administration with operating plan and expenditure plan. As results for the third step, issues and limitations which require action plan for further development and support, or to cease that unskilled sports kind. The final step, based on the HMK model and modeling canvas by Alexander O and Yves P (2010) are those of template generating Sports Business Services Model for each 10 SAT’s regional stadiums.

Keywords: HMK model, not for profit organization, sport business model, sport services model

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Authors: Ese Urhie, Olabisi Popoola, Obindah Gershon

Abstract:

Several policies and programs initiated to address the challenge of unemployment in Nigeria seem to be inadequate. The desired structural transformation which is expected to absorb the excess labour in the economy is yet to be achieved. The agricultural sector accounts for almost half of the labour force with very low productivity. This could partly explain why the much anticipated structural transformation has not been achieved. A major reason for the low productivity is the fact that the production process is predominantly based on the use of traditional tools. In view of the underdeveloped nature of the agricultural sector, Nigeria still has huge potentials for productivity enhancement through modern technology. Aside from productivity enhancement, modern agriculture also stimulates both backward and forward linkages that promote investment and thus generate employment. Contrary to the apprehension usually expressed by many stake-holders about the adoption of modern technology by labour-abundant less-developed countries, this study showed that though there will be job loss initially, the reverse will be the case in the long-run. The outcome of this study will enhance the understanding of all stakeholders in the sector and also encourage them to adopt modern techniques of farming. It will also aid policy formulation at both sectoral and national levels. The recursive model and analysis adopted in the study is useful because it exhibits a unilateral cause-and-effect relationship which most simultaneous equation models do not. It enables the structural equations to be ordered in such a way that the first equation includes only predetermined variables on the right-hand side, while the solution for the final endogenous variable is completely determined by all equations of the system. The study examines the transmission channels and effect of modern agriculture on agricultural productivity and employment growth in Nigeria, via its forward and backward linkages. Using time series data spanning 1980 to 2014, the result of the analyses shows that: (i) a significant and positive relationship between agricultural productivity growth and modern agriculture; (ii) a significant and negative relationship between export price index and agricultural productivity growth; (iii) a significant and positive relationship between export and investment; and (iv) a significant and positive relationship between investment and employment growth. The unbalanced growth theory will be a good strategy to adopt by developing countries such as Nigeria.

Keywords: employment, modern agriculture, productivity, recursive model

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Authors: Douglas MacCutcheon, Florian Pausch, Robert Ljung, Lorna Halliday, Stuart Rosen

Abstract:

Contemporary classrooms are increasingly inclusive of children with mild to moderate disabilities and children from different language backgrounds (bilinguals, multilinguals), but classroom environments and standards have not yet been adapted adequately to meet these challenges brought about by this inclusivity. Additionally, classrooms are becoming noisier as a learner-centered as opposed to teacher-centered teaching paradigm is adopted, which prioritizes group work and peer-to-peer learning. Challenging listening conditions with distracting sound sources and background noise are known to have potentially negative effects on children, particularly those that are prone to struggle with speech perception in noise. Therefore, this research investigates two groups vulnerable to these environmental effects, namely children with a mild to moderate hearing loss (MMHLs) and sequential bilinguals learning in their second language. In the MMHL study, this group was assessed on speech-in-noise perception, and a number of receptive language and cognitive measures (auditory working memory, auditory attention) and correlations were evaluated. Speech reception thresholds were found to be predictive of language and cognitive ability, and the nature of correlations is discussed. In the bilinguals study, sequential bilingual children’s listening comprehension, speech-in-noise perception, listening effort and release from masking was evaluated under a number of different ecologically valid acoustic scenarios in order to pinpoint the extent of the ‘native language benefit’ for Swedish children learning in English, their second language. Scene manipulations included target-to-distractor ratios and introducing spatially separated noise. This research will contribute to the body of findings from which educational institutions can draw when designing or adapting educational environments in inclusive schools.

Keywords: sequential bilinguals, classroom acoustics, mild to moderate hearing loss, speech-in-noise, release from masking

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Authors: Heramb Somthankar, Anujoy Chakraborty

Abstract:

This paper presents a classification study on yield prediction in semiconductor production using machine learning approaches. A complicated semiconductor production process is generally monitored continuously by signals acquired from sensors and measurement sites. A monitoring system contains a variety of signals, all of which contain useful information, irrelevant information, and noise. In the case of each signal being considered a feature, "Feature Selection" is used to find the most relevant signals. The open-source UCI SECOM Dataset provides 1567 such samples, out of which 104 fail in quality assurance. Feature extraction and selection are performed on the dataset, and useful signals were considered for further study. Afterward, common machine learning algorithms were employed to predict whether the signal yields pass or fail. The most relevant algorithm is selected for prediction based on the accuracy and loss of the ML model.

Keywords: deep learning, feature extraction, feature selection, machine learning classification algorithms, semiconductor production monitoring, signal processing, time-series analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 95