Search results for: bureaucratic management model

Authors: S. O. Oyamakin, A. U. Chukwu

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Richard's growth equation being a generalized logistic growth equation was improved upon by introducing an allometric parameter using the hyperbolic sine function. The integral solution to this was called hyperbolic Richard's growth model having transformed the solution from deterministic to a stochastic growth model. Its ability in model prediction was compared with the classical Richard's growth model an approach which mimicked the natural variability of heights/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides a more realistic height/diameter predictions using the coefficient of determination (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Square Error (MSE) results. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the behavior of the error term for possible violations. The mean function of top height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic Richard's nonlinear growth models better than the classical Richard's growth model.

Keywords: height, Dbh, forest, Pinus caribaea, hyperbolic, Richard's, stochastic

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Authors: Tengqin Han

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Delinquency has been a crucial factor in economics throughout the years. Commonly seen in credit card and mortgage, it played one of the crucial roles in causing the most recent financial crisis in 2008. In each case, a delinquency is a sign of the loaner being unable to pay off the debt, and thus may cause a lost of property in the end. Individually, one case of delinquency seems unimportant compared to the entire credit system. China, as an emerging economic entity, the national strength and economic strength has grown rapidly, and the gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate has remained as high as 8% in the past decades. However, potential risks exist behind the appearance of prosperity. Among the risks, the credit system is the most significant one. Due to long term and a large amount of balance of the mortgage, it is critical to monitor the risk during the performance period. In this project, about 300,000 mortgage account data are analyzed in order to develop a predictive model to predict the probability of delinquency. Through univariate analysis, the data is cleaned up, and through bivariate analysis, the variables with strong predictive power are detected. The project is divided into two parts. In the first part, the analysis data of 2005 are split into 2 parts, 60% for model development, and 40% for in-time model validation. The KS of model development is 31, and the KS for in-time validation is 31, indicating the model is stable. In addition, the model is further validation by out-of-time validation, which uses 40% of 2006 data, and KS is 33. This indicates the model is still stable and robust. In the second part, the model is improved by the addition of macroeconomic economic indexes, including GDP, consumer price index, unemployment rate, inflation rate, etc. The data of 2005 to 2010 is used for model development and validation. Compared with the base model (without microeconomic variables), KS is increased from 41 to 44, indicating that the macroeconomic variables can be used to improve the separation power of the model, and make the prediction more accurate.

Keywords: delinquency, mortgage, model development, model validation

Procedia PDF Downloads 219

Authors: Awad Khireldin, Colin Law

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Runways are the major infrastructure of airports around the world. Efficient operations of runways are key to ensure that airports are running smoothly with minimal delays. There are many factors that affect the efficiency of runway operations, such as the aircraft wake separation, runways system configuration, the fleet mix, and the runways separation distance. This paper aims to address how to maximize runway operations using a Discrete Event Simulation model. A case study of Cairo International Airport (CIA) is developed to maximize the utilizing of three parallel runways using a simulation model. Different scenarios have been designed where every runway could be assigned for arrival, departure, or mixed operations. A benchmarking study was also included to compare the actual to the proposed results to spot the potential improvements. The simulation model shows that there is a significant difference in utilization and delays between the actual and the proposed ones, there are several recommendations that can be provided to airport management, in the short and long term, to increase the efficiency and to reduce the delays. By including the recommendation with different operations scenarios, such as upgrading the airport slot Coordination from Level 1 to Level 2 in the short term. In the long run, discuss the possibilities to increase the International Air Transport association (IATA) slot coordination to Level 3 as more flights are expected to be handled by the airport. Technological advancements such as radar in the approach full airside simulation model could improve the airport performance where the airport is recommended to review the standard operations procedures with the appropriate authorities. Also, the airport can adopt a future operational plan to accommodate the forecasted additional traffic density in case of adding a fourth terminal building to increase the airport capacity.

Keywords: airport performance, runway, discrete event simulation, capacity, airside

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Authors: B. G. Abiona, O. E. Fapojuwo, T. Akinlawon

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This study assessed the influence of human resource management practices on agricultural employees’ behavior. Data were collected from 75 randomly selected respondents using a well-structured questionnaire. The mean age of the employees’ was 43.2 years. Major human resource management practices that influence employees behaviors were: In-service training are given to employees on a regular basis (average value of x=3.44), management reward employees who are committed to their job (average value of x =3.41) and reward are designed to encourage wide participation and activity (average value of x=3.41). Also, major employees’ behavior include: Managers and employees’ wants to create better job performance (average value of x=3.13) and administrator provides praise and recognition for effective performance and show appreciation for special effort (average value of x=3.05). Major factors affecting employees’ behavior were: inadequate training (average value of x=2.93), inadequate local and international training (average value of x=2.87), inadequate grants for training programmes (average value of x= 2.81). A significant relationship was found between gender (χ2 = 37.204, P<0.05), educational qualification (χ2 = 59.093, P<0.05), income (r =0.122, P<0.05) and human resource management practices (r = 0.573, P< 0.05) of the respondents and employees’ behavior. Management should encourage employees who are committed to their job through awards and recognition.

Keywords: human resources management, agricultural employees, behaviour research institutes, Nigeria

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Authors: Kyle Burke Pfeiffer, Carmella Burdi, Karen Marsh

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The evacuation and shelter-in-place planning process employed by most jurisdictions within the United States is not informed by a scientifically-derived framework that is inclusive of the behavioral and policy-related indicators of public compliance with evacuation orders. While a significant body of work exists to define these indicators, the research findings have not been well-integrated nor translated into useable planning factors for public safety officials. Additionally, refinement of the planning factors alone is insufficient to support science-based evacuation planning as the behavioral elements of evacuees—even with consideration of policy-related indicators—must be examined in the context of specific regional transportation and shelter networks. To address this problem, the Federal Emergency Management Agency and Argonne National Laboratory developed an agent-based model to support regional analysis of zone-based evacuation in southeastern Georgia. In particular, this model allows public safety officials to analyze the consequences that a range of hazards may have upon a community, assess evacuation and shelter-in-place decisions in the context of specified evacuation and response plans, and predict outcomes based on community compliance with orders and the capacity of the regional (to include extra-jurisdictional) transportation and shelter networks. The intention is to use this model to aid evacuation planning and decision-making. Applications for the model include developing a science-driven risk communication strategy and, ultimately, in the case of evacuation, the shortest possible travel distance and clearance times for evacuees within the regional boundary conditions.

Keywords: agent-based modeling for evacuation, decision-support for evacuation planning, evacuation planning, human behavior in evacuation

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Authors: Wajahat Munir, Muhammad Haseeb, Adeel Anjum, Basit Raza, Ahmad Kamran Malik

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Databases are the key components of the software systems. Due to the exponential growth of data, it is the concern that the data should be accurate and available. The data in databases is vulnerable to internal and external threats, especially when it contains sensitive data like medical or military applications. Whenever the data is changed by malicious intent, data analysis result may lead to disastrous decisions. Autonomic self-healing is molded toward computer system after inspiring from the autonomic system of human body. In order to guarantee the accuracy and availability of data, we propose a technique which on a priority basis, tries to avoid any malicious transaction from execution and in case a malicious transaction affects the system, it heals the system in an isolated mode in such a way that the availability of system would not be compromised. Using this autonomic system, the management cost and time of DBAs can be minimized. In the end, we test our model and present the findings.

Keywords: autonomic computing, self-healing, threat avoidance, security

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Authors: Seyedeza Baharisaravi

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As we know, we are living in the hyper competitive environment and all of companies strive hard to engross more and more customers. Thus, in this milieu, we should produce and deliver diverse commodities, regarding with the consumers' interests. So, all companies elicit that they should pay attention on the external resources besides the internal ones. Hence, the meaning of supply chain management has been introduced as a fundamental issue for global e-business, e-commerce and e-government. The present paper explains prominences, challenges, keys, various descriptions, advantages and disadvantages, globalization and the future of one of the vital issues in the business realm which is supply chain management (SCM). This issue is one of the newest concepts of business science that has transformed the essence of every business and attitude of marketers.

Keywords: SCM concepts, supply chain management, the importance of SCM, SCM in organization

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Authors: Syazreen N. Shair, Saiful A. Ishak, Aida Y. Yusof, Azizah Murad

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In this paper, we forecast age-specific Malaysian mortality rates and life expectancy at births by gender and ethnic groups including Malay, Chinese and Indian. Two mortality forecasting models are adopted the original Lee-Carter model and its recent modified version, the product ratio coherent model. While the first forecasts the mortality rates for each subpopulation independently, the latter accounts for the relationship between sub-populations. The evaluation of both models is performed using the out-of-sample forecast errors which are mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) for mortality rates and mean forecast errors (MFE) for life expectancy at births. The best model is then used to perform the long-term forecasts up to the year 2030, the year when Malaysia is expected to become an aged nation. Results suggest that in terms of overall accuracy, the product ratio model performs better than the original Lee-Carter model. The association of lower mortality group (Chinese) in the subpopulation model can improve the forecasts of high mortality groups (Malay and Indian).

Keywords: coherent forecasts, life expectancy at births, Lee-Carter model, product-ratio model, mortality rates

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Authors: Danying Gu, Xiaoyan Li, Yuanlei He

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As a knowledge-intensive industry, nuclear industry highly values the importance of safety and quality. The life cycle of a NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) can last 100 years from the initial research and design to its decommissioning. How to implement the high-quality knowledge management and how to contribute to a more safe, advanced and economic NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) is the most important issue and responsibility for knowledge management. As the lead of nuclear industry, nuclear research and design institute has competitive advantages of its advanced technology, knowledge and information, DKM (Design Knowledge Management) of nuclear research and design institute is the core of the knowledge management in the whole nuclear industry. In this paper, the study and practice on DKM and knowledge transfer across the life cycle of a new-built NPP in China is introduced. For this digital intelligent NPP, the whole design process is based on a digital design platform which includes NPP engineering and design dynamic analyzer, visualization engineering verification platform, digital operation maintenance support platform and digital equipment design, manufacture integrated collaborative platform. In order to make all the design data and information transfer across design, construction, commissioning and operation, the overall architecture of new-built digital NPP should become a modern knowledge management system. So a digital information transfer model across the NPP life cycle is proposed in this paper. The challenges related to design knowledge transfer is also discussed, such as digital information handover, data center and data sorting, unified data coding system. On the other hand, effective delivery of design information during the construction and operation phase will contribute to the comprehensive understanding of design ideas and components and systems for the construction contractor and operation unit, largely increasing the safety, quality and economic benefits during the life cycle. The operation and maintenance records generated from the NPP operation process have great significance for maintaining the operating state of NPP, especially the comprehensiveness, validity and traceability of the records. So the requirements of an online monitoring and smart diagnosis system of NPP is also proposed, to help utility-owners to improve the safety and efficiency.

Keywords: design knowledge management, digital nuclear power plant, knowledge transfer, life cycle

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Authors: Keerthi S. Shetty, Annappa Basava

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In recent years, modelling of biological systems represented by biochemical reactions has become increasingly important in Systems Biology. Biological systems represented by biochemical reactions are highly stochastic in nature. Probabilistic model is often used to describe such systems. One of the main challenges in Systems biology is to combine absolute experimental data into probabilistic model. This challenge arises because (1) some molecules may be present in relatively small quantities, (2) there is a switching between individual elements present in the system, and (3) the process is inherently stochastic on the level at which observations are made. In this paper, we describe a novel idea of combining absolute experimental data into probabilistic model using tool R2. Through a case study of the Transcription Process in Prokaryotes we explain how biological systems can be written as probabilistic program to combine experimental data into the model. The model developed is then analysed in terms of intrinsic noise and exact sampling of switching times between individual elements in the system. We have mainly concentrated on inferring number of genes in ON and OFF states from experimental data.

Keywords: systems biology, probabilistic model, inference, biology, model

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Authors: Matheus Fonseca Durães, Bruno da Silva Pereira, Bruna Stewart

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The concept of Brazil’s water governance has been the topic of discussion and has undergone legal and organizational improvements due to the need to promote a more effective and sustainable relationship with natural resources and stemming from conflicts related to shortcomings in decision-making. The Waters Act has enabled Brazil to create interesting mechanisms for integrated management, but, on the other hand, it has created a challenge that involves the implementation of the principles established in this legal framework. This study aims to evaluate some challenges and opportunities for water governance in two watersheds based on data collection and analysis of concessions, the water use register, and flow data. The elements presented demonstrated, via an analysis of legally instituted criteria, that the level of commitment of water resources is high, especially to public supply, and the adoption of the reference flow constituted one of the main barriers to implementing an efficient system, demonstrating the need for a regulatory policy that considers the hydrological behavior of the watersheds. Finally, the current water management model presents challenges to be addressed to achieve the objectives proposed by the water policy, such as ensuring sustainable, rational, and integrated use of water resources.

Keywords: management, hydrology, public policies, Brazil

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Authors: Alireza Ghaffari, Hassan Saghi

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Project management is more complex than managing the day-to-day affairs of an organization. When the project dimensions are broad and multiple projects have to be monitored in different locations, the integrated management becomes even more complicated. One of the main concerns of project managers is the integrated project management, which is mainly rooted in the lack of accurate and accessible information from different projects in various locations. The collection of dispersed information from various parts of the network, their integration and finally the selective reporting of this information is among the goals of integrated information systems. It can help resolve the main problem, which is bridging the information gap between executives and senior managers in the organization. Therefore, the main objective of this study is to design and implement an important subset of a project management information system in order to successfully control the cost of construction projects so that its results can be used to design raw software forms and proposed relationships between different project units for the collection of necessary information.

Keywords: financial performance, cost subsystem, PMIS, project management

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Authors: Ana Rahma Yuniarti, Ki Moo Lim

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Slowed myocardial conduction velocity (CV) and shortened action potential duration (APD) due to some reason are associated with an increased risk of re-entrant excitation, predisposing to cardiac arrhythmia. That is because both of CV reduction and APD shortening induces shortening of wavelength. In this study, we investigated quantitatively the cardiac mechanical responses under various CV and APD using multi-scale computational model of the heart. The model consisted of electrical model coupled with the mechanical contraction model together with a lumped model of the circulatory system. The electrical model consisted of 149.344 numbers of nodes and 183.993 numbers of elements of tetrahedral mesh, whereas the mechanical model consisted of 356 numbers of nodes and 172 numbers of elements of hexahedral mesh with hermite basis. We performed the electrical simulation with two scenarios: 1) by varying the CV values with constant APD and 2) by varying the APD values with constant CV. Then, we compared the electrical and mechanical responses for both scenarios. Our simulation showed that faster CV and longer APD induced largest resultants wavelength and generated better cardiac pumping efficacy by increasing the cardiac output and consuming less energy. This is due to the long wave propagation and faster conduction generated more synchronous contraction of whole ventricle.

Keywords: conduction velocity, action potential duration, mechanical contraction model, circulatory model

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Authors: Vitor Carneiro, Augusto Barata Da Rocha, Barbara Rangel, Jorge Lino Alves

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In the European Union countries, Small and Medium-Sized Enterprises (SME’s) have an important contribution to economic activity and to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The implementation of design practices in SME’s is often a difficult task due to resources limitations. Unlike large companies, their product development and innovation processes frequentlylack adequate planning and systematic procedures. Design management interest has grown exponentially in recent years, but as it is a recent topic there is an absence of systematic methodologies to implement design management in SME’s with little or no design experience. This work presents a contribution to improve and optimize the process of design integration and management in SME’s. A review analysis is presented to select relevant articles on the subject, review and classify the main published contributions. Based on the selected articles content it was possible to identify five main themes related to the subject under analysis: Design Function Organization, Design Management Integration, Design Management Capabilities, Managing Design Projects, and Tools and Methods. Design management is discussed from different perspectives depending on the focus on which it is placed, whether in a design or management perspective, leading to different visions and definitions: from a more upstream strand at the intersection of design and the organization's strategic management (strategic design management) to a more downstream strand related to project management and design process (design management operational). The review analysis of the selected articles allowed the identification of a high level of complexity of connections and parameters in the design management during the product development process in the context of SME’s. Within each group of the five main themes, several sub-themes, directly or indirectly related, should be considered.Sub-connections also occur between sub-themes of different themes creating a complex and intricate web of connections. This complexity of connections is often the main obstacle to conduct design management and product development efficiently. This work proposes a formulation of a systematic methodological approach to optimize the integrated project and the management and control of the product development process among SME's. The implementation of this formulation will improve the integration of design management in the product development and innovation process in SME’s.

Keywords: design management, product development, product innovation, SME’s.

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Authors: M. Mohsin Munir, Taimoor Ahmad, Javed Munir, Usman Rashid

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Determination of maximum elevation of a flowing fluid due to sudden rejection of load in a hydropower facility is of great interest to hydraulic engineers to ensure safety of the hydraulic structures. Several mathematical models exist that employ one-dimensional modeling for the determination of surge but none of these perfectly simulate real-time circumstances. The paper envisages investigation of surge inception and propagation for a Low Head Hydropower project using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis on FLOW-3D software package. The fluid dynamic model utilizes its analysis for surge by employing Reynolds’ Averaged Navier-Stokes Equations (RANSE). The CFD model is designed for a case study at Taunsa hydropower Project in Pakistan. Various scenarios have run through the model keeping in view upstream boundary conditions. The prototype results were then compared with the results of physical model testing for the same scenarios. The results of the numerical model proved quite accurate coherence with the physical model testing and offers insight into phenomenon which are not apparent in physical model and shall be adopted in future for the similar low head projects limiting delays and cost incurred in the physical model testing.

Keywords: surge, FLOW-3D, numerical model, Taunsa, RANSE

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Authors: Setya Winarno

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Due to abundant Merapi volcanic sand in Yogyakarta City, many local people have utilized it for mass production of concrete blocks through mini plants although their products are low in quality. This paper presents a practice model for quality improvement in this situation in order to supply the current customer interest in good quality of construction material. The method of this research was to investigate a techno economic evaluation through laboratory test and interview. Samples of twenty existing concrete blocks made by local people had only 19.4 kg/cm2 in average compression strength which was lower than the minimum Indonesian standard of 25 kg/cm2. Through repeat testing in laboratory for fulfilling the standard, the concrete mix design of water cement ratio should not be more than 0.64 by weight basis. The proportion of sand as aggregate content should not be more than 9 parts to 1 part by volume of Portland cement. Considering the production cost, the basic price was Rp 1,820 for each concrete block, comparing to Rp 2,000 as a normal competitive market price. At last, the model describes (a) maximum water cement ratio is 0.64, (b) maximum proportion of sand and cement is 1:9, (c) the basic price is about Rp. 1,820.00 and (d) strategies to win the competitive market on mass production of concrete blocks are focus in quality, building relationships with consumer, rapid respond to customer need, continuous innovation by product diversification, promotion in social media, and strict financial management.

Keywords: concrete block, good quality, improvement model, diversification

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Authors: Farhood Rismanchian, Seong Hyeon Park, Young Hoon Lee

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During the recent years, demand for healthcare services has dramatically increased. As the demand for healthcare services increases, so does the necessity of constructing new healthcare buildings and redesigning and renovating existing ones. Increasing demands necessitate the use of optimization techniques to improve the overall service efficiency in healthcare settings. However, high complexity of care processes remains the major challenge to accomplish this goal. This study proposes a method based on process mining results to address the high complexity of care processes and to find the optimal layout of the various medical centers in an emergency department. ProM framework is used to discover clinical pathway patterns and relationship between activities. Sequence clustering plug-in is used to remove infrequent events and to derive the process model in the form of Markov chain. The process mining results served as an input for the next phase which consists of the development of the optimization model. Comparison of the current ED design with the one obtained from the proposed method indicated that a carefully designed layout can significantly decrease the distances that patients must travel.

Keywords: Mixed Integer programming, Facility layout problem, Process Mining, Healthcare Operation Management

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Authors: Yungtai Lo

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The current study follows an educational intervention on bottle-weaning to simultaneously evaluate the effect of the bottle-weaning intervention on reducing bottle use, daily milk intake from bottles, and daily energy intake in toddlers aged 11 to 13 months. A shared parameter model and a random effects model are used to jointly model bottle use, daily milk intake from bottles, and daily energy intake. We show in the two joint models that the bottle-weaning intervention promotes bottleweaning, and reduces daily milk intake from bottles in toddlers not off bottles and daily energy intake. We also show that the odds of drinking from a bottle were positively associated with the amount of milk intake from bottles and increased daily milk intake from bottles was associated with increased daily energy intake. The effect of bottle use on daily energy intake is through its effect on increasing daily milk intake from bottles that in turn increases daily energy intake.

Keywords: two-part model, semi-continuous variable, joint model, gamma regression, shared parameter model, random effects model

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Authors: Asser S. Abdelwahab, Nabil H. Abbasy, Ragi A. Hamdy

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Marine shipping has now become one of the major worldwide contributors to pollution and greenhouse gas emissions. Hybrid ships technology based on multiple energy sources has taken a great scope of research to get rid of ship emissions and cut down fuel expenses. Insufficiency between power generated and the demand load to withstand the transient behavior on ships during severe climate conditions will lead to a blackout. Thus, an efficient energy management system (EMS) is a mandatory scope for achieving higher system efficiency while enhancing the lifetime of the onboard storage systems is another salient EMS scope. Considering energy storage system conditions, both the battery state of charge (SOC) and temperature represent important parameters to prevent any malfunction of the storage system that eventually degrades the whole system. In this paper, a two battery packs ratio fuzzy logic control model is proposed. The overall aim is to control the charging/discharging current while including both the battery SOC and temperature in the energy management system. The full designs of the proposed controllers are described and simulated using Matlab. The results prove the successfulness of the proposed controller in stabilizing the system voltage during both loading and unloading while keeping the energy storage system in a healthy condition.

Keywords: energy storage system, power shipboard, hybrid ship, thermal runaway

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Authors: T. M. Ismail, M. A. El-Salam

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A mathematical model study was carried out to investigate gasification of biomass fuels using high-temperature air and steam as a gasifying agent using high-temperature air up to 1000°C. In this study, a 2D computational fluid dynamics model was developed to study the gasification process in an updraft gasifier, considering drying, pyrolysis, combustion, and gasification reactions. The gas and solid phases were resolved using a Euler−Euler multiphase approach, with exchange terms for the momentum, mass, and energy. The standard k−ε turbulence model was used in the gas phase, and the particle phase was modeled using the kinetic theory of granular flow. The results show that the present model giving a promising way in its capability and sensitivity for the parameter effects that influence the gasification process.

Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, gasification, biomass fuel, fixed bed gasifier

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Authors: Liqun Zou, Ling Wang, Xiaoli Chen

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Objective: Through the questionnaire about emergency nurses’ knowledge and attitudes regarding pain management to understand whether they are well mastered and practiced the related knowledge about pain management, providing a reference for continuous improvement of the quality of nursing care in acute pain and for improving the effect of management on emergency pain patients. Method: The Chinese version questionnaire about KASRP (knowledge and attitudes survey regarding pain) was handed out to 132 emergency nurses to do a study about the knowledge and attitude of pain management. Meanwhile, SPSS17.0 was used to do a descriptive analysis and variance analysis on collected data. Results: The emergency nurses’ correct answer rate about KASRP questionnaire is from 25% to 65% and the average correct rate is (44.65 + 7.85)%. In addition, there are 10 to 26 items being given the right answer. Therefore, the average correct items are (17.86 ± 3.14). Moreover, there is no statistical significant on the differences about the correct rate for different age, gender and work experience to answer; however, the difference of the correct rate in different education background and the professional title is significant. Conclusion: There is a remarkable lack of knowledge and attitude towards pain management in emergency nurses, whose basic knowledge of pain is sufficient. Besides, there is a deviation between the knowledge of pain management and clinical practice, which needs to be improved.

Keywords: emergency nurse, pain, KASRP questionnaire, pain management

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Authors: Dheyaa Wajid Abbood, Hanan Hussien Abood

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Stepped cascade has been utilized as a hydraulic structure for years. It has proven to be the least costly aeration system in replenishing dissolved oxygen. Numerical modeling of stepped cascade with end sill is very complicated and challenging because of the high roughness and velocity re circulation regions. Volume of fluid multiphase flow model (VOF) is used .The realizable k-ξ model is chosen to simulate turbulence. The computational results are compared with lab-scale stepped cascade data. The lab –scale model was constructed in the hydraulic laboratory, Al-Mustansiriya University, Iraq. The stepped cascade was 0.23 m wide and consisted of 3 steps each 0.2m high and 0.6 m long with variable end sill. The discharge was varied from 1 to 4 l/s. ANSYS has been employed to simulate the experimental data and their related results. This study shows that ANSYS is able to predict results almost the same as experimental findings in some regions of the structure.

Keywords: stepped cascade weir, aeration, multiphase flow model, ansys

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Authors: R. Monteiro, A. Abarca

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Large scale seismic risk assessment has become increasingly popular to evaluate the physical vulnerability of a given region to seismic events, by putting together hazard, exposure and vulnerability components. This study, developed within the scope of the EU-funded project ITERATE (Improved Tools for Disaster Risk Mitigation in Algeria), explains the steps and expected results for the development of an integrated seismic risk model for assessment of the vulnerability of residential buildings in Northern Algeria. For this purpose, the model foresees the consideration of an updated seismic hazard model, as well as ad-hoc exposure and physical vulnerability models for local residential buildings. The first results of this endeavor, such as the hazard model and a specific taxonomy to be used for the exposure and fragility components of the model are presented, using as starting point the province of Blida, in Algeria. Specific remarks and conclusions regarding the characteristics of the Northern Algerian in-built are then made based on these results.

Keywords: Northern Algeria, risk, seismic hazard, vulnerability

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Authors: Zhaopeng Xuan, Yuan Bian, C. Cailleaux, Jing Qin, S. Traore

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Traditional software engineering allows engineers to propose to their clients multiple specialized software distributions assembled from a shared set of software assets. The management of these assets however requires a trade-off between client satisfaction and software engineering process. Clients have more and more difficult to find a distribution or components based on their needs from all of distributed repositories. This paper proposes a software engineering for a user-driven software product line in which engineers define a feature model but users drive the actual software distribution on demand. This approach makes the user become final actor as a release manager in software engineering process, increasing user product satisfaction and simplifying user operations to find required components. In addition, it provides a way for engineers to manage and assembly large software families. As a proof of concept, a user-driven software product line is implemented for eclipse, an integrated development environment. An eclipse feature model is defined, which is exposed to users on a cloud-based built platform from which clients can download individualized Eclipse distributions.

Keywords: software product line, model-driven development, reverse engineering and refactoring, agile method

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Authors: M. Kharazmi, M. Zakeri, M. Packirisamy, J. Faraji

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Micro/Nanorobotics or manipulation of nanoparticles by Atomic Force Microscopic (AFM) is one of the most important solutions for controlling the movement of atoms, particles and micro/nano metrics components and assembling of them to design micro/nano-meter tools. Accurate modelling of manipulation requires identification of forces and mechanical knowledge in the Nanoscale which are different from macro world. Due to the importance of the adhesion forces and the interaction of surfaces at the nanoscale several friction models were presented. In this research, friction and normal forces that are applied on the AFM by using of the dynamic bending-torsion model of AFM are obtained based on Hurtado-Kim friction model (HK), Johnson-Kendall-Robert contact model (JKR) and Greenwood-Williamson roughness model (GW). Finally, the effect of standard deviation of asperities height on the normal load, friction force and friction coefficient are studied.

Keywords: atomic force microscopy, contact model, friction coefficient, Greenwood-Williamson model

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Authors: Pouya Molana, Zeinab Alimohammadi

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Determining wind wave characteristics is essential for implementing projects related to Coastal and Marine engineering such as designing coastal and marine structures, estimating sediment transport rates and coastal erosion rates in order to predict significant wave height (H_s), this study applies the third generation spectral wave model, Mike 21 SW, along with CEM model. For SW model calibration and verification, two data sets of meteorology and wave spectroscopy are used. The model was exposed to time-varying wind power and the results showed that difference ratio mean, standard deviation of difference ratio and correlation coefficient in SW model for H_s parameter are 1.102, 0.279 and 0.983, respectively. Whereas, the difference ratio mean, standard deviation and correlation coefficient in The Choice Experiment Method (CEM) for the same parameter are 0.869, 1.317 and 0.8359, respectively. Comparing these expected results it is revealed that the Choice Experiment Method CEM has more errors in comparison to MIKE 21 SW third generation spectral wave model and higher correlation coefficient does not necessarily mean higher accuracy.

Keywords: MIKE 21 SW, CEM method, significant wave height, difference ratio

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Authors: Sibel Celik, Hüseyin Ergin

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The paper aims to find the best volatility forecasting model for stock markets in Turkey. For this purpose, we compare performance of different volatility models-both traditional GARCH model and high frequency based volatility models- and conclude that both in pre-crisis and crisis period, the performance of high frequency based volatility models are better than traditional GARCH model. The findings of paper are important for policy makers, financial institutions and investors.

Keywords: volatility, GARCH model, realized volatility, high frequency data

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Authors: Ashley Wei-Ting Wang, Wen-Yau Hsu

Abstract:

Objectives: The current study applies and expands the Tripartite Model to elaborate the link between non-suicidal self-injury (NSSI) and suicidal behavior. We propose a structural model of NSSI and suicidal risk, in which negative affect (NA) predicts both anxiety and depression, positive affect (PA) predicts depression only, anxiety is linked to NSSI, and depression is linked to suicidal risk. Method: Four hundreds and eighty seven undergraduates participated. Data were collected by administering self-report questionnaires. We performed hierarchical regression and structural equation modeling to test the proposed structural model. Results: The results largely support the proposed structural model, with one exception: anxiety was strongly associated with NSSI and to a lesser extent with suicidal risk. Conclusions: We conclude that the co-occurrence of NSSI and suicidal risk is due to NA and anxiety, and suicidal risk can be differentiated by depression. Further theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

Keywords: non-suicidal self-injury, suicidal risk, anxiety, depression, the tripartite model, hierarchical relationship

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Authors: Shih-Kuei Lin

Abstract:

The characterization of the arbitrage-free dynamics of interest rates is developed in this study under the presence of Markov jump risks, when the term structure of the interest rates is modeled through simple forward rates. We consider Markov jump risks by allowing randomness in jump sizes, independence between jump sizes and jump times. The Markov jump diffusion model is used to capture empirical phenomena and to accurately describe interest jump risks in a financial market. We derive the arbitrage-free model of simple forward rates under the spot measure. Moreover, the analytical pricing formulas for a cap and a floor are derived under the forward measure when the jump size follows a lognormal distribution. In our empirical analysis, we find that the LIBOR market model with Markov jump risk better accounts for changes from/to different states and different rates.

Keywords: arbitrage-free, cap and floor, Markov jump diffusion model, simple forward rate model, volatility smile, EM algorithm

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Authors: Christopher Godwin Udomboso, Angela Unna Chukwu, Isaac Kwame Dontwi

Abstract:

In selecting a Statistical Neural Network model, the Network Information Criterion (NIC) has been observed to be sample biased, because it does not account for sample sizes. The selection of a model from a set of fitted candidate models requires objective data-driven criteria. In this paper, we derived and investigated the Adjusted Network Information Criterion (ANIC), based on Kullback’s symmetric divergence, which has been designed to be an asymptotically unbiased estimator of the expected Kullback-Leibler information of a fitted model. The analyses show that on a general note, the ANIC improves model selection in more sample sizes than does the NIC.

Keywords: statistical neural network, network information criterion, adjusted network, information criterion, transfer function

Procedia PDF Downloads 559