Search results for: Markov chain Monte Carlo method

Authors: Ayda Nikkar, Roghayye Ahmadiasl

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In this letter, a new analytical method called homotopy perturbation method, which does not need small parameter in the equation is implemented for solving the nonlinear Whitham–Broer–Kaup (WBK) partial differential equation. In this method, a homotopy is introduced to be constructed for the equation. The initial approximations can be freely chosen with possible unknown constants which can be determined by imposing the boundary and initial conditions. Comparison of the results with those of exact solution has led us to significant consequences. The results reveal that the HPM is very effective, convenient and quite accurate to systems of nonlinear equations. It is predicted that the HPM can be found widely applicable in engineering.

Keywords: homotopy perturbation method, Whitham–Broer–Kaup (WBK) equation, Modified Boussinesq, Approximate Long Wave

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Authors: Yildiray Keskin, Omer Acan, Murat Akkus

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In this paper, the solution of fractional diffusion equations is presented by means of the reduced differential transform method. Fractional partial differential equations have special importance in engineering and sciences. Application of reduced differential transform method to this problem shows the rapid convergence of the sequence constructed by this method to the exact solution. The numerical results show that the approach is easy to implement and accurate when applied to fractional diffusion equations. The method introduces a promising tool for solving many fractional partial differential equations.

Keywords: fractional diffusion equations, Caputo fractional derivative, reduced differential transform method, partial

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Authors: Mitsuo Yoshida

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A significant mercury contamination of soil/sediment was unveiled by an environmental monitoring program in a wetland along La Plata River, west to Montevideo City, Uruguay. The mercury contamination was caused by industrial wastewater discharged from a chlor-alkali plant using a mercury-cell process. The contamination level is above 60 mg/kg in soil/sediment. Most of mercury (Hg) in the environment is inorganic, but some fractions are converted by bacteria to methylmercury (MeHg), a toxic organic compound. MeHg biologically accumulates through a food-chain and become serious public health risk. In order to clarify the contaminated part for countermeasure operation, an intervention value of mercury contamination of sediment/soil was defined as 15 mg/kg (total Hg) by the authority. According to the intervention value, mercury contaminated area in the La Plata site is approximately 48,280 m² and estimated total volume of contaminated sediments/soils was around 18,750 m³. The countermeasures to contaminated zone were proposed in two stages; (i) mitigation of risks for public health and (ii) site remediation. The first stage is an installation of fens and net around the contamination zone, for mitigating risks of exposure, inhalation, and intake. The food chain among wetland-river ecosystem was also interrupted by the installation of net and fens. The state of mercury contamination in La Plata site and plan of countermeasure was disclosed to local people and the public, and consensus on setting off-limit area was successfully achieved. Mass media also contribute to share the information on the contamination site. The cost for countermeasures was borne by the industry under the polluter-pay-principle.

Keywords: chlor-alkali plant, mercury contamination, polluter pay principle, Uruguay, wetland

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Authors: Babalola Sunday Oyetayo, Igbinomwanhia Uyi Osamwonyi, Idowu T. O., Herbert Tata

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This paper explores the potential benefits of adopting blockchain technology in Nigeria's land administration systems while also addressing the challenges and implications of its implementation in the country's unique context. Through a comprehensive literature review and analysis of existing research, the paper delves into the key attributes of blockchain that can revolutionize land administration practices, with a particular focus on simplifying land registration procedures, expediting land title issuance, and enhancing data transparency and security. The decentralized and immutable nature of blockchain offers unique advantages, instilling trust and confidence in land transactions, which are especially crucial in Nigeria's land governance landscape. However, integrating blockchain in Nigeria's land administration ecosystem presents specific challenges, necessitating a critical evaluation of technical, socio-economic, and infrastructural barriers. These challenges encompass data privacy concerns, scalability, interoperability with outdated systems, and gaining acceptance from various stakeholders. By synthesizing these insights, the paper proposes strategies tailored to Nigeria's context to optimize the benefits of blockchain adoption while addressing the identified challenges. The research findings contribute significantly to the ongoing discourse on blockchain technology in Nigeria's land governance, offering evidence-based recommendations to policymakers, land administrators, and stakeholders. Ultimately, the paper aims to promote the effective utilization of blockchain, fostering efficiency, transparency, and trust in Nigeria's land administration systems to drive sustainable development and societal progress.

Keywords: block-chain, technology, stakeholders, land registration

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Authors: Robin Anderson, Elizabeth Latham, David Nisbet

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Propagation and dissemination of antimicrobial resistant and pathogenic microbes from spoiled silages and composts represents a serious public health threat to humans and animals. In the present study, the antimicrobial activity of the short chain nitro-compound, 2-nitro-1-propanol (9 mM) as well as the medium chain fatty acid, lauric acid, and its glycerol monoester, monolaurin, (each at 25 and 17 µmol/mL, respectfully) were investigated against select pathogenic and multi-drug resistant antimicrobial resistant Gram-positive bacteria common to spoiled silages and composts. In an initial study, we found that growth rates of a multi-resistant Enterococcus faecalis (expressing resistance against erythromycin, quinupristin/dalfopristin and tetracycline) and Staphylococcus aureus strain 12600 (expressing resistance against erythromycin, linezolid, penicillin, quinupristin/dalfopristin and vancomycin) were more than 78% slower (P < 0.05) by 2-nitro-1-propanol treatment during culture (n = 3/treatment) in anaerobically prepared ½ strength Brain Heart Infusion broth at 37oC when compared to untreated controls (0.332 ± 0.04 and 0.108 ± 0.03 h-1, respectively). The growth rate of 2-nitro-1-propanol-treated Listeria monocytogenes was also decreased by 96% (P < 0.05) when compared to untreated controls cultured similarly (0.171 ± 0.01 h-1). Maximum optical densities measured at 600 nm were lower (P < 0.05) in 2-nitro-1-propanol-treated cultures (0.053 ± 0.01, 0.205 ± 0.02 and 0.041 ± 0.01, respectively) than in untreated controls (0.483 ± 0.02, 0.523 ± 0.01 and 0.427 ± 0.01, respectively) for E. faecalis, S. aureus and L. monocytogenes, respectively. When tested against mixed microbial populations during anaerobic 24 h incubation of spoiled silage, significant effects of treatment with 1 mg 2-nitro-1-propanol (approximately 9.5 µmol/g) or 5 mg lauric acid/g (approximately 25 µmol/g) on populations of wildtype Enterococcus and Listeria were not observed. Mixed populations treated with 5 mg monolaurin/g (approximately 17 µmol/g) had lower (P < 0.05) viable cell counts of wildtype enterococci than untreated controls after 6 h incubation (2.87 ± 1.03 versus 5.20 ± 0.25 log10 colony forming units/g, respectively) but otherwise significant effects of monolaurin were not observed. These results reveal differential susceptibility of multi-drug resistant enterococci and staphylococci as well as L. monocytogenes to the inhibitory activity of 2-nitro-1-propanol and the medium chain fatty acid, lauric acid and its glycerol monoester, monolaurin. Ultimately, these results may lead to improved treatment technologies to preserve the microbiological safety of silages and composts.

Keywords: 2-nitro-1-propanol, lauric acid, monolaurin, gram positive bacteria

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Authors: A. Zerarka, W. Djoudi

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The method developed in this work uses a generalised coth and csch funtions method to construct new exact travelling solutions to the nonlinear lattice equation. The technique of the homogeneous balance method is used to handle the appropriated solutions.

Keywords: coth functions, csch functions, nonlinear partial differential equation, travelling wave solutions

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Authors: Annika Bastian, Paula Restrepo Cadavid, Raphael Grau, Albert Albers

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Designing a method that assists culturally diverse and distributed teams in better understanding each other's perspectives and, therefore, improving their creative output and collaboration is the goal of this contribution. To do so, the research on cultural theories and different creativity methods that engage communication have been analyzed. Thereafter, a method has been designed combining interactive elements that engage creativity with the content of what lies behind cultural differences. The method uses Hofstede’s Cultural Dimensions as a theoretical basis, and De Bono’s six thinking hats as a practical basis to reach its goal and, therefore, successfully support multicultural distributed development teams in solving problems creatively.

Keywords: creative problem-solving, creativity method, distributed product development, method design, supporting culturally diverse teams

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Authors: Muhammad Farooq Baig, Saleem Qadeer

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Background: The frequency of hepatitis C virus infection along with tuberculosis has not been widely investigated and very low statistics on rates of hepatitis C virus co-infection in tuberculosis patients. Hepatotoxicity is the major side effect of anti-tuberculosis therapy hepatitis HCVliver disease elevates the chances of hepatotoxicity up-to five folds. Objectives & Aim: To see the frequency of Hepatitis Cvirus infection amongst people with diagnosed Tuberculosis using gene X-pert technique. To evaluate the factors associated with HCVinfection in patients with MTBtuberculosis and to determine sensitivity and specificity of the tests. Study design: Comparative analytical study. Methodology: Three hundred and thirteen patients of tuberculosis diagnosed by Genexpert included while testing hepatitis C virus using immunochromotography rapid test technique, enzyme linked immunosorbent assay method and polymerase chain reaction test for confirmation. Results:Higher frequency of tuberculosis infection in males 57.8%, 42.5% between 20-39 years and 22% of hepatitis C virus infection in tuberculosis patients.The sensitivity of rapid test and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was 79% and 96% respectively while the specificity of rapid test and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay was 91% and 99% respectively.

Keywords: Mycobactrium Tuberculosis, PC'R, Gene x pert, Hepatitis C virus

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Authors: Siham Rahoui, Amr Mahfouz, Amr Arisha

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In a highly competitive environment characterised by uncertainty and disruptions, such as the recent COVID-19 outbreak, supply chains (SC) face the challenge of maintaining their cost at minimum levels while continuing to provide customers with high-quality products and services. More importantly, businesses in such an economic context strive to maintain survival by keeping the cost of undertaken activities (such as logistics) low and in-house. To do so, managers need to understand the costs associated with different products and services in order to have a clear vision of the SC performance, maintain profitability levels, and make strategic decisions. In this context, SC literature explored different costing models that sought to determine the costs of undertaking supply chain-related activities. While some cost accounting techniques have been extensively explored in the SC context, more contributions are needed to explore the potential of time driven activity-based costing (TDABC). More specifically, more applications are needed in the manufacturing context of the SC, where the debate is ongoing. The aim of the study is to assess the capability of the technique to assess the operational performance of the logistics function. Through a case study methodology applied to a manufacturing company operating in the automotive industry, TDABC evaluates the efficiency of the current configuration and its logistics processes. The study shows that monitoring the process efficiency and cost efficiency leads to strategic decisions that contributed to improve the overall efficiency of the logistics processes.

Keywords: efficiency, operational performance, supply chain costing, time driven activity based costing

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Authors: T. Kritsana, P. Sawitri, P. Teeratas

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This article aims to study the effect of pressure on rocket motor case by Finite Element Method simulation to select optimal material in rocket motor manufacturing process. In this study, cylindrical tubes with outside diameter of 122 mm and thickness of 3 mm are used for simulation. Defined rocket motor case materials are AISI4130, AISI1026, AISI1045, AL2024 and AL7075. Internal pressure used for the simulation is 22 MPa. The result from Finite Element Method shows that at a pressure of 22 MPa rocket motor case produced by AISI4130, AISI1045 and AL7075 can be used. A comparison of the result between AISI4130, AISI1045 and AL7075 shows that AISI4130 has minimum principal stress and confirm the results of Finite Element Method by the used of calculation method found that, the results from Finite Element Method has good reliability.

Keywords: rocket motor case, finite element method, principal stress, simulation

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Authors: Mohammad Ghandehari Motlagh

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Purpose: Comparing anterior chamber depth (ACD) measured with Orbscan II and Pentacam HR compared with the Smith method results. Methods: Smith method (1979) is a reliable method of measuring ACD only with help of slit lamp. In this study 102 phakic eyes as PRK candidates were imaged with both OrbScan and Pentacam and finally ACD was measured thru Smith method with slit lamp. ACD measured with Smith method was presumed as the gold standard and was compared with ACD of the 2 imaging devices. Contraindication cases for PRK and pseudophakic eyes have been excluded from the study. Results: Mean age of the patients was 35.2 ±14.8 yrs/old including 56 M(54.9%)and 46 F(45.09%).Acceptable correlation of ACD measured thru Smith method with Orbscan and Pentacam are R=0.958 and R=0.942 respectively and so Orbscan results can be used in procedures relying on ACD. Conclusion: ACDs measured with OrbScan is more precise than Pentacam and so can be more useful in some surgery procedures relying ACD results such as phakic IOLs and in cycloplegia contraindications.

Keywords: orbscan, pentacam, anterior chamber depth, slit lamp

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Authors: Mahmoud Lot

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In this article, we will discuss the solution of elliptic optimal control problem. First, by using the nite element method, we obtain the discrete form of the problem. The obtained discrete problem is actually a large scale constrained optimization problem. Solving this optimization problem with traditional methods is difficult and requires a lot of CPU time and memory. But split Bergman method converts the constrained problem to an unconstrained, and hence it saves time and memory requirement. Then we use the split Bregman method for solving this problem, and examples show the speed and accuracy of split Bregman methods for solving these types of problems. We also use the SQP method for solving the examples and compare with the split Bregman method.

Keywords: Split Bregman Method, optimal control with elliptic partial differential equation constraint, finite element method

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Authors: Nada Jasim Habeeb, Rana Saad Mohammed, Muntaha Khudair Abbass

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For more efficient and fast video summarization, this paper presents a surveillance video summarization method. The presented method works to improve video summarization technique. This method depends on temporal differencing to extract most important data from large video stream. This method uses histogram differencing and Sum Conditional Variance which is robust against to illumination variations in order to extract motion objects. The experimental results showed that the presented method gives better output compared with temporal differencing based summarization techniques.

Keywords: temporal differencing, video summarization, histogram differencing, sum conditional variance

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Authors: M. Y. Waziri, M. A. Aliyu

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The paper proposes an approach to improve the performance of Broyden’s method for solving systems of nonlinear equations. In this work, we consider the information from two preceding iterates rather than a single preceding iterate to update the Broyden’s matrix that will produce a better approximation of the Jacobian matrix in each iteration. The numerical results verify that the proposed method has clearly enhanced the numerical performance of Broyden’s Method.

Keywords: mulit-step Broyden, nonlinear systems of equations, computational efficiency, iterate

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Authors: Tohru Kawabe

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In this paper, a new SMC (Sliding Mode Control) method with MP (Model Predictive Control) integral action for the slip suppression of EV (Electric Vehicle) under braking is proposed. The proposed method introduce the integral term with standard SMC gain , where the integral gain is optimized for each control period by the MPC algorithms. The aim of this method is to improve the safety and the stability of EVs under braking by controlling the wheel slip ratio. There also include numerical simulation results to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method.

Keywords: sliding mode control, model predictive control, integral action, electric vehicle, slip suppression

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Authors: P. Larpsomboonchai

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Agro-industry is one of major industries that has strong impacts on national economic incomes, growth, stability, and sustainable development. Moreover, this industry also has strong influences on social, cultural and political issues. Furthermore, this industry, as producing primary and secondary products, is facing challenges from such diverse factors such as demand inconsistency, intense international competition, technological advancements and new competitors. In order to maintain and to improve industry’s competitiveness in both domestics and international markets, science and technology are key factors. Besides hard sciences and technologies, modern industrial engineering concepts such as Just in Time (JIT) Total Quality Management (TQM), Quick Response (QR), Supply Chain Management (SCM) and Lean can be very effective to supportant to increase efficiency and effectiveness of these agricultural products on world stage. Onion is one of Thailand’s major export products which brings back national incomes. But, it also facing challenges in many ways. This paper focused its interests in onion packing process and its related activities such as storage and shipment from one of major packing plant and storage in Mae Wang District, Chiang Mai, Thailand, by applying Toyota Production System (TPS) or Lean concepts, to improve process capability throughout the entire packing and distribution process which will be profitable for the whole onion supply chain. And it will be beneficial to other related agricultural products in Thailand and other ASEAN countries.

Keywords: packing process, Toyota Production System (TPS), lean concepts, waste reduction, lean in agro-industries activities

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Authors: Nikhat Nawaz, S. Srinivasulu, P. Kesava Rao

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Feature extraction plays an important role in many remote sensing applications. Automatic extraction of water bodies is of great significance in many remote sensing applications like change detection, image retrieval etc. This paper presents a procedure for automatic extraction of water information from remote sensing images. The algorithm uses the relative location of R-colour component of the chromaticity diagram. This method is then integrated with the effectiveness of the spatial scale transformation of whole method. The whole method is based on water index fitted from spectral library. Experimental results demonstrate the improved accuracy and effectiveness of the integrated method for automatic extraction of water bodies.

Keywords: feature extraction, remote sensing, image retrieval, chromaticity, water index, spectral library, integrated method

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Authors: Abdelhadi Adel, Kadri Ouahab

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This paper proposes a hybrid algorithm for the integration of systematic preventive maintenance policies in hybrid flow shop scheduling to minimize makespan. We have implemented a problem-solving approach for optimizing the processing time, methods based on metaheuristics. The proposed approach is inspired by the behavior of the human body. This hybridization is between a multi-agent system and inspirations of the human body, especially genetics. The effectiveness of our approach has been demonstrated repeatedly in this paper. To solve such a complex problem, we proposed an approach which we have used advanced operators such as uniform crossover set and single point mutation. The proposed approach is applied to three preventive maintenance policies. These policies are intended to maximize the availability or to maintain a minimum level of reliability during the production chain. The results show that our algorithm outperforms existing algorithms. We assumed that the machines might be unavailable periodically during the production scheduling.

Keywords: multi-agent systems, emergence, genetic algorithm, makespan, systematic maintenance, scheduling, hybrid flow shop scheduling

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Authors: Soressa Tolcha Jarra

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Looking into firm-level internationalization strategies and their effects on firms' productivity is needed in order to understand the role of firms’ participation in trading activities on the one hand and the effects of firms’ internalization strategies on firm-level productivity on the other. Thus, this study aims to investigate firms' imports of intermediates and export strategies and their impact on firm productivity using an establishment-level panel dataset from Ethiopian manufacturing firms over the period 2011–2020. Methodologically, the joint firm’s decision to import intermediates and estimate exports is undertaken by system GMM using Wooldridge's approach. The translog-production function is used to estimate firm-level productivity by considering a general Markov process. The size of the firm is used in a mediating role. The result indicates evidence of the self-selection of more productive firms into exporting and importing intermediates, which is indicative of sizable export and import market entry costs. Furthermore, there is evidence in favor of learning by exporting (LBE) and learning by importing (LBI) hypotheses for smaller and medium Ethiopian manufacturing firms. However, for large firms, there is only evidence in support of the learning by exporting (LBE) hypothesis.

Keywords: Ethiopia, export, firm productivity, intermediate imports

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Authors: Ali Dehgan Moroozeh, B. Farhadi Bansouleh

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Evapotranspiration is one of the most important components of the hydrological cycle. Evapotranspiration (ETo) is an important variable in water and energy balances on the earth’s surface, and knowledge of the distribution of ET is a key factor in hydrology, climatology, agronomy and ecology studies. Many researchers have a valid relationship, which is a function of climate factors, to estimate the potential evapotranspiration presented to the plant water stress or water loss, prevent. The FAO-Penman method (PM) had been recommended as a standard method. This method requires many data and these data are not available in every area of world. So, other methods should be evaluated for these conditions. When sufficient or reliable data to solve the PM equation are not available then Hargreaves equation can be used. The Hargreaves equation (HG) requires only daily mean, maximum and minimum air temperature extraterrestrial radiation .In this study, Hargreaves method (HG) were evaluated in 12 stations in the North West region of Iran. Results of HG and M.HG methods were compared with results of PM method. Statistical analysis of this comparison showed that calibration process has had significant effect on efficiency of Hargreaves method.

Keywords: evapotranspiration, hargreaves, equation, FAO-Penman method

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Authors: Mei Han, Jinkou Zhao, Yuan Yao, Liangui Feng, Xianbin Ding, Guohui Wu, Chao Zhou, Lin Ouyang, Rongrong Lu, Bo Zhang

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To compare the HIV incidence estimated using BED capture enzyme linked immunosorbent assay (BED-CEIA) and observed in a cohort against the HIV incidence among men who have sex with men (MSM) measured by pooling polymerase chain reaction (pooling-PCR). A total of 617 MSM subjects were included in a respondent driven sampling survey in Chongqing in 2008. Among the 129 that were tested HIV antibody positive, 102 were defined with long-term infection, 27 were assessed for recent HIV infection (RHI) using BED-CEIA. The remaining 488 HIV negative subjects were enrolled to the prospective cohort and followed-up every 6 months to monitor HIV seroconversion. All of the 488 HIV negative specimens were assessed for acute HIV infection (AHI) using pooling-PCR. Among the 488 negative subjects in the open cohort, 214 (43.9%) were followed-up for six months, with 107 person-years of observation and 14 subjects seroconverted. The observed HIV incidence was 12.5 per 100 person-years (95% CI=9.1-15.7). Among the 488 HIV negative specimens, 5 were identified with acute HIV infection using pooling-PCR at an annual rate of 14.02% (95% CI=1.73-26.30). The estimated HIV-1 incidence was 12.02% (95% CI=7.49-16.56) based on BED-CEIA. The HIV incidence estimated with three different approaches was different among subgroups. In the highly HIV prevalent MSM, it costs US$ 1724 to detect one AHI case, while detection of one case of RHI with BED assay costs only US$ 42. Three approaches generated comparable and high HIV incidences, pooling PCR and prospective cohort are more close to the true level of incidence, while BED-CEIA seemed to be the most convenient and economical approach for at-risk population’s HIV incidence evaluation at the beginning of HIV pandemic. HIV-1 incidences were alarmingly high among MSM population in Chongqing, particularly within the subgroup under 25 years of age and those migrants aged between 25 to 34 years.

Keywords: BED-CEIA, HIV, incidence, pooled PCR, prospective cohort

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Authors: F. Boufera, F. Debbat

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This paper deals with an approach based on limit-cycles method for the problem of obstacle avoidance of mobile robots in unknown environments for any form of obstacles. The purpose of this approach is the improvement of limit-cycles method in order to obtain safe and flexible navigation. The proposed algorithm has been successfully tested in different configuration on simulation.

Keywords: mobile robot, navigation, avoidance of obstacles, limit-cycles method

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Authors: Anna Bohers, Emília Hroncová, Juraj Ladomerský

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Oil sludge with its main characteristic of high acidity is a waste product generated from the operation of refinery and petrochemical plants. Former refinery and petrochemical plant - Petrochema Dubová is present in Slovakia as well. Its activities was to process the crude oil through sulfonation and adsorption technology for production of lubricating and special oils, synthetic detergents and special white oils for cosmetic and medical purposes. Seventy years ago – period, when this historical acid sludge burden has been created – comparing to the environmental awareness the production was in preference. That is the reason why, as in many countries, also in Slovakia a historical environmental burden is present until now – 229 211 m3 of oil sludge in the middle of the National Park of Nízke Tatry mountain chain. Neither one of tried treatment methods – bio or non-biologic one - was proved as suitable for processing or for recovery in the reason of different factors admission: i.e. strong aggressivity, difficulty with handling because of its sludgy and liquid state et sim. As a potential solution, also incineration was tested, but it was not proven as a suitable method, as the concentration of SO2 in combustion gases was too high, and it was not possible to decrease it under the acceptable value of 2000 mg.mn-3. That is the reason why the operation of incineration plant has been terminated, and the acid sludge landfills are present until nowadays. The objective of this paper is to present a new possibility of processing and valorization of acid sludgy-waste. The processing of oil sludge was performed through the effective separation - thermal desorption technology, through which it is possible to split the sludgy material into the matrix (soil, sediments) and organic contaminants. In order to boost the efficiency in the processing of acid sludge through thermal desorption, the work will present the possibility of application of an original technology – Method of Blowing Decomposition for recovering of organic matter into technological lubricating oil.

Keywords: hazardous waste, oil sludge, remediation, thermal desorption

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Authors: A. H. Choudhury

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In this paper, a highly accurate numerical method for the solution of one-dimensional fourth-order wave equation is derived. This hyperbolic problem is solved by using semidiscrete approximations. The space direction is discretized by wavelet-Galerkin method, and the time variable is discretized by using Newmark schemes.

Keywords: hyperbolic problem, semidiscrete approximations, stability, Wavelet-Galerkin Method

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Authors: Denys Osipenko, Jonathan Crook

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Because of the variety of the card holders’ behaviour types and income sources each consumer account can be transferred to a variety of states. Each consumer account can be inactive, transactor, revolver, delinquent, defaulted and requires an individual model for the income prediction. The estimation of transition probabilities between statuses at the account level helps to avoid the memorylessness of the Markov Chains approach. This paper investigates the transition probabilities estimation approaches to credit cards income prediction at the account level. The key question of empirical research is which approach gives more accurate results: multinomial logistic regression or multistage conditional logistic regression with binary target. Both models have shown moderate predictive power. Prediction accuracy for conditional logistic regression depends on the order of stages for the conditional binary logistic regression. On the other hand, multinomial logistic regression is easier for usage and gives integrate estimations for all states without priorities. Thus further investigations can be concentrated on alternative modeling approaches such as discrete choice models.

Keywords: multinomial regression, conditional logistic regression, credit account state, transition probability

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Authors: Rahman Dashti, Ehsan Gord

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In this paper, an improved impedance based fault location method is proposed. In this method, online fault locating is performed using voltage and current information at the beginning of the feeder. Determining precise fault location in a short time increases reliability and efficiency of the system. The proposed method utilizes information about main component of voltage and current at the beginning of the feeder and distributed generation unit (DGU) in order to precisely locate different faults in acceptable time. To evaluate precision and accuracy of the proposed method, a 13-node is simulated and tested using MATLAB.

Keywords: distribution network, fault section determination, distributed generation units, distribution protection equipment

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Authors: Roy. H. A. Lindelauf

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Cyberattacks are complex processes consisting of multiple interwoven tasks conducted by a set of agents. Interdictions and defenses against such attacks often rely on cyber kill chain (CKC) models. A CKC is a framework that tries to capture the actions taken by a cyber attacker. There exists a growing body of literature on CKCs. Most of this work either a) describes the CKC with respect to one or more specific cyberattacks or b) discusses the tools and technologies used by the attacker at each stage of the CKC. Defenders, facing scarce resources, have to decide where to allocate their resources given the CKC and partial knowledge on the tools and techniques attackers use. In this presentation CKCs are analyzed through the lens of covert projects, i.e., interrelated tasks that have to be conducted by agents (human and/or computer) with the aim of going undetected. Various aspects of covert project models have been studied abundantly in the operations research and game theory domain, think of resource-limited interdiction actions that maximally delay completion times of a weapons project for instance. This presentation has investigated both cooperative and non-cooperative game theoretic covert project models and elucidated their relation to CKC modelling. To view a CKC as a covert project each step in the CKC is broken down into tasks and there are players of which each one is capable of executing a subset of the tasks. Additionally, task inter-dependencies are represented by a schedule. Using multi-glove cooperative games it is shown how a defender can optimize the allocation of his scarce resources (what, where and how to monitor) against an attacker scheduling a CKC. This study presents and compares several cooperative game theoretic solution concepts as metrics for assigning resources to the monitoring of agents.

Keywords: cyber defense, cyber kill chain, game theory, information warfare techniques

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Authors: W. S. Lawal, T. Akande

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Abstract— Four (4) difference methods were employed to detoxify Jatropha carcas, they were physical method (it include soaking and sun drying) Chemical (the use of methylated sprit, hexane and methane). Biological (the use of Aspergillus niger and then sundry for 7days and then Bacillus lichiformis) and Combined method (the combination of chemical and biological methods). Phobol esther analysis was carried out after the detoxification methods and it was found that the combined method is better off (P<0.05). Detoxified Jatropha from each of this methods was sundry and grinded for easy inclusion into poultry feed, detoxified jatropha was included at 0%, 0.5%, 1%, 2%, 3%, 4%, and 5% but the combined method was increased up to 7% because the birds were able to tolerate it, the 0% was the control experiment. 405 day old broiler chicks was used to test the effect of detoxified Jatropha carcas on their performance, there are 5birds per treatment and there are 3 replicates, the experiment lasted for 8weeks,highest number of mortality was obtained in physical method, birds in chemical method tolerated up to 3% Jatropha carcas, biological method is better, as birds there were comfortable at 5% but the best of them is combined method the birds did very well at 7% as there were less mortality and highest weight gain was achieved here (P<0.05) and it was recommended.

Keywords: phobol esther, inclusion level, tolerance level, Jatropha carcas

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Authors: Hadi Farhadian, Homayoon Katibeh

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In this paper, groundwater seepage into Amirkabir tunnel has been estimated using analytical and numerical methods for 14 different sections of the tunnel. Site Groundwater Rating (SGR) method also has been performed for qualitative and quantitative classification of the tunnel sections. The obtained results of above-mentioned methods were compared together. The study shows reasonable accordance with results of the all methods unless for two sections of tunnel. In these two sections there are some significant discrepancies between numerical and analytical results mainly originated from model geometry and high overburden. SGR and the analytical and numerical calculations, confirm the high concentration of seepage inflow in fault zones. Maximum seepage flow into tunnel has been estimated 0.425 lit/sec/m using analytical method and 0.628 lit/sec/m using numerical method occurred in crashed zone. Based on SGR method, six sections of 14 sections in Amirkabir tunnel axis are found to be in "No Risk" class that is supported by the analytical and numerical seepage value of less than 0.04 lit/sec/m.

Keywords: water Seepage, Amirkabir Tunnel, analytical method, DEM, SGR

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Authors: S. A. M. Yatim, Z. B. Ibrahim, K. I. Othman, M. Suleiman

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The method of solving second order stiff ordinary differential equation (ODEs) that is based on backward differentiation formula (BDF) is considered in this paper. We derived the method by increasing the order of the existing method using an improved strategy in choosing the step size. Numerical results are presented to compare the efficiency of the proposed method to the MATLAB’s suite of ODEs solvers namely ode15s and ode23s. The method was found to be efficient to solve second order ordinary differential equation.

Keywords: backward differentiation formulae, block backward differentiation formulae, stiff ordinary differential equation, variable step size

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