Search results for: painful period

Authors: Sean Sloan

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Probability Risk Assessments (PRA) can be a difficult concept for students to grasp. So in searching for different ways to describe PRA to relate it to their lives; COVID-19 came up. The parallels are amazing. Soon students began analyzing acceptable risk with the virus. This helped them to quantify just how dangerous is dangerous. The original lesson was dismissed and for the remainder of the period, the probability of risk, and the lethality of risk became the topic. Spreading events such as a COVID carrier on an airline became analogous to single fault casualties such as a Tsunami. Odds of spreading became odds of backup-diesel-generator failure – like with Fukashima Daiichi. Fatalities of the disease became expected fatalities due to radiation spread. Quantification from this discussion took it from hyperbole and emotion into one where we could rationally base guidelines. It has been one of the most effective educational devices observed.

Keywords: COVID, education, probability, risk

Procedia PDF Downloads 152

Authors: Bruno Tassin, Robin Treilles, Cleo Stratmann, Minh Trang Nguyen, Sam Azimi, Vincent Rocher, Rachid Dris, Johnny Gasperi

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Microplastics (<5mm) in the environment and in hydro systems is one of the major present environmental issues. Over the last five years a research programme was conducted in order to assess the behavior of microplastics in the Seine river catchment, in a Man-Land-Sea continuum approach. Results show that microplastic concentration varies at the seasonal scale, but also at much smaller scales, during flood events and with tides in the estuary for instance. Moreover, microplastic sampling and characterization issues emerged throughout this work. The Seine river is a 750km long river flowing in Northwestern France. It crosses the Paris megacity (12 millions inhabitants) and reaches the English Channel after a 170 km long estuary. This site is a very relevant one to assess the effect of anthropogenic pollution as the mean river flow is low (mean flow around 350m³/s) while the human presence and activities are very intense. Monthly monitoring of the microplastic concentration took place over a 19-month period and showed significant temporal variations at all sampling stations but no significant upstream-downstream increase, indicating a possible major sink to the sediment. At the scale of a major flood event (winter and spring 2018), microplastic concentration shows an evolution similar to the well-known suspended solids concentration, with an increase during the increase of the flow and a decrease during the decrease of the flow. Assessing the position of the concentration peak in relation to the flow peak was unfortunately impossible. In the estuary, concentrations vary with time in connection with tides movements and in the water column in relation to the salinity and the turbidity. Although major gains of knowledge on the microplastic dynamics in the Seine river have been obtained over the last years, major gaps remain to deal mostly with the interaction with the dynamics of the suspended solids, the selling processes in the water column and the resuspension by navigation or shear stress increase. Moreover, the development of efficient chemical characterization techniques during the 5 year period of this pluriannual research programme led to the improvement of the sampling techniques in order to access smaller microplastics (>10µm) as well as larger but rare ones (>500µm).

Keywords: microplastics, Paris megacity, seine river, suspended solids

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Authors: Shishen Xie, Yingda L. Xie

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Tuberculosis (TB) is a potentially serious infectious disease that remains a health concern. The Interferon Gamma Release Assay (IGRA) is a blood test to find out if an individual is tuberculous positive or negative. This study applies statistical analysis to the clinical data of interferon-gamma levels of seventy-three subjects who diagnosed pulmonary TB in an anti-tuberculous treatment. Data analysis is performed to determine if there is a significant decline in interferon-gamma levels for the subjects during a period of six months, and to infer if the anti-tuberculous treatment is effective.

Keywords: data analysis, interferon gamma release assay, statistical methods, tuberculosis infection

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Authors: Nazeef, Suleiman, Umar, Danladi Muhammad, Ja'afar Ali, Zaliha Adamu Umar

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The population dynamics of Auchenoglanis occidentalis from the Dadin-Kowa reservoir were studied. Population dynamic parameters such as growth, mortality and recruitment patterns were analyzed using length frequency data over a 12-month period employing FiSAT II software. Findings revealed that LWR (b - constant) = 2.88, K = 0.72 -yr., L∞ = 40.91 cm and Tmax = 3.57 years and Ɵ’ = 3.14. Mortality indices revealed that natural mortality (M = 1.39), fishing mortality (F = 0.22) and exploitation ratio (E = 0.14), Lc/L∞ = 0.48, Emax = 0.64, while Lopt = 26.4 cm. Uni-modal recruitment peak observed with Lm = 27.3 cm. A restocking program is suitable to ensure its continuous existence as it seems to have a low population.

Keywords: fish population dynamics, auchenoglanis occidentalis, FISAT II, natural mortality

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Authors: Israel Ibarra Solis, Juan Carlos Rodriguez Sierra, Ma. del Carmen Salazar Hernandez, Isis Rodriguez Sanchez, David Perez Guerrero

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At the present paper we try to explain the analysis techniques use for the lubricating oil in a maintenance period of a city bus (Mercedes Benz Boxer 40), which is call ‘R-24 route’, line Coecillo Centro SA de CV in Leon Guanajuato, to estimate the optimal time for the oil change. Using devices such as the rotational viscometer and the atomic absorption spectrometer, they can detect the incipient form when the oil loses its lubricating properties and, therefore, cannot protect the mechanical components of diesel engines such these trucks. Timely detection of lost property in the oil, it allows us taking preventive plan maintenance for the fleet.

Keywords: atomic absorption spectrometry, maintenance, predictive velocity rate, lubricating oils

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Authors: Sulaiman Al amro, Ali Alkhalifah

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The growing number of computer viruses and the detection of zero day malware have been the concern for security researchers for a large period of time. Existing antivirus products (AVs) rely on detecting virus signatures which do not provide a full solution to the problems associated with these viruses. The use of logic formulae to model the behaviour of viruses is one of the most encouraging recent developments in virus research, which provides alternatives to classic virus detection methods. In this paper, we proposed a comparative study about different virus detection techniques. This paper provides the advantages and drawbacks of different detection techniques. Different techniques will be used in this paper to provide a discussion about what technique is more effective to detect computer viruses.

Keywords: computer viruses, virus detection, signature-based, behaviour-based, heuristic-based

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Authors: Yuexi Xiong, Jingwu He

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The structural components in an energy facility such as steam turbine machines are operated under high stress and elevated temperature in an endured time period and thus the creep deformation and creep rupture failure are important issues that need to be addressed in the design of such components. There are numerous creep models being used for creep analysis that have both advantages and disadvantages in terms of accuracy and efficiency. The Isochronous Creep Analysis is one of the simplified approaches in which a full-time dependent creep analysis is avoided and instead an elastic-plastic analysis is conducted at each time point. This approach has been established based on the rupture dependent creep equations using the well-known Larson-Miller parameter. In this paper, some fundamental aspects of creep deformation and the rupture dependent creep models are reviewed and the analysis procedures using isochronous creep curves are discussed. Four rupture failure criteria are examined from creep fundamental perspectives including criteria of Stress Damage, Strain Damage, Strain Rate Damage, and Strain Capability. The accuracy of these criteria in predicting creep life is discussed and applications of the creep analysis procedures and failure predictions of simple models will be presented. In addition, a new failure criterion is proposed to improve the accuracy and effectiveness of the existing criteria. Comparisons are made between the existing criteria and the new one using several examples materials. Both strain increase and stress relaxation form a full picture of the creep behaviour of a material under high temperature in an endured time period. It is important to bear this in mind when dealing with creep problems. Accordingly there are two sets of rupture dependent creep equations. While the rupture strength vs LMP equation shows how the rupture time depends on the stress level under load controlled condition, the strain rate vs rupture time equation reflects how the rupture time behaves under strain-controlled condition. Among the four existing failure criteria for rupture life predictions, the Stress Damage and Strain Damage Criteria provide the most conservative and non-conservative predictions, respectively. The Strain Rate and Strain Capability Criteria provide predictions in between that are believed to be more accurate because the strain rate and strain capability are more determined quantities than stress to reflect the creep rupture behaviour. A modified Strain Capability Criterion is proposed making use of the two sets of creep equations and therefore is considered to be more accurate than the original Strain Capability Criterion.

Keywords: creep analysis, high temperature mateials, rapture evalution, steam turbine machines

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Authors: Ayşen Edirneligil, Mehmet Mucuk

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In developing countries, one of the most important restrictions about the economic growth is the lack of national savings which are supposed to finance the investments. In order to overcome this restriction and achieve the higher rate of economic growth by increasing the level of output, countries choose the external borrowing. However, there is a dispute in the literature over the correlation between external debt and economic growth. The aim of this study is to examine the effects of external debt on Turkish economic growth by using VAR analysis with the quarterly data over the period of 2002:01-2014:04. In this respect, Johansen Cointegration Test, Impulse- Response Function and Variance Decomposition Tests will be used for analyses. Empirical findings show that there is no cointegration in the long run.

Keywords: external debt, economic growth, Turkish economy, time series analysis

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Authors: S. Alireza Mirghasemi, Shervin Rashidinia, Mohammad Saleh Sadeghi, Mohsen Talebizadeh, Narges Rahimi Gabaran, Seyed Shahin Eftekhari, Sara Shahmoradi

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Avascular necrosis of femoral head is a pathologic condition that the main cause is decreased blood supply of femoral head. Among predisposing risk factors, chronic use of corticosteroids, alcoholism, smocking and hip traumas have more important role. Also we can mention OCP consumption as a risk factor among less common predisposing factors that lead to AVNF, in this study we introduce another cause of AVNF with a period of treatment with moderate dose of corticosteroids accompanied by OCP as a probable facilitating factor that leads to AVNF.

Keywords: AVN, corticosteroids consumption, femoral head osteonecrosis, OCP

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Authors: Daniil Karzanov

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This paper studies the effect of quarterly earnings reports on the stock price. The profitability of the stock is modeled by geometric Brownian diffusion and the Constant Elasticity of Variance model. We fit several variations of stochastic differential equations to the pre-and after-report period using the Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Grid Search of parameters method. By examining the change in the model parameters after reports’ publication, the study reveals that the reports have enough evidence to be a structural breakpoint, meaning that all the forecast models exploited are not applicable for forecasting and should be refitted shortly.

Keywords: stock market, earnings reports, financial time series, structural breaks, stochastic differential equations

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Authors: Sara Ataei, Mohammad Bagher Oghazian, Mania Radfar

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We describe a patient with hypercalcemia associated with the injection of high doses vitamin D as supplement for a period of six months. A 76-year-old woman had been taking an intramuscular injection of vitamin D 300,000 IU every ten days for six months. She was hospitalized with symptoms of hypercalcemia: chronic constipation, unstable gait, a chronic generalized musculoskeletal pain and increased fatigue. On admission her 25 (OH) vitamin D and Calcium levels were 559 nmol/L and 13.85 mg/dL respectively, and Parathyroid Hormone (PTH) level was 7.1 pg/mL. Immediately she received diuresis therapy with saline and furosemide in conjunction with calcitonin and pamidronate. At discharge her serum calcium level was 11.5 mg/dL. To lower endogenous overproduction of calcitriol, prednisolone 20 mg/day for 10 days was administered at discharge time.

Keywords: vitamin D, hypercalcemia, vitamin D toxicity, parathyroid hormone

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Authors: Konstantopoulos N., Samitas A., E. Vasileiou, Kinias I.

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This article introduces a new view on the month effect study. Applying a Markov Switching Regime model on data from the Greek Time Deposits (TDs) market for the time span January 2003 to October 2013, we examine if there is a month effect on the Greek banking industry. The empirical findings provide convincing evidence for a new king of monthly anomaly. The explanation for the specific abnormality may be the upward deposits window dressing. Further research should be done in order to examine if the specific calendar effect exists in other countries or it is only a Greek phenomenon.

Keywords: calendar anomalies, banking crisis, month effect, Greek banking industry

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Authors: Vasiliki Kolake, Christos Kavalaris, Sofia Megoudi, Maria Maxouri, Panagiotis A. Karas, Aris Kyparissis, Efi Levizou

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Conservation agriculture (CA), is a production system approach that can tackle the challenges of climate change mainly through facilitating carbon storage into the soil and increasing crop resilience. This is extremely important for the vulnerable Mediterranean agroecosystems, which already face adverse environmental conditions. The agronomic practices used in CA, i.e. permanent soil cover and no-tillage, result in reduced soil erosion and increased soil organic matter, preservation of water and improvement of quality and fertility of the soil in the long-term. Thus the functional characteristics and processes of the soil are considerably affected by the implementation of CA. The aim of the present work was to assess the effects of CA on soil nitrification potential and mycorrhizal colonization about the above-ground production in a wheat field. Two adjacent but independent field sites of 1.5ha each were used (Thessaly plain, Central Greece), comprising the no-till and conventional tillage treatments. The no-tillage site was covered by residues of the previous crop (cotton). Potential nitrification and the nitrate and ammonium content of the soil were measured at two different soil depths (3 and 15cm) at 20-days intervals throughout the growth period. Additionally, the leaf area index (LAI) was monitored at the same time-course. The mycorrhizal colonization was measured at the commencement and end of the experiment. At the final harvest, total yield and plant biomass were also recorded. The results indicate that wheat yield was considerably favored by CA practices, exhibiting a 42% increase compared to the conventional tillage treatment. The superior performance of the CA crop was also depicted in the above-ground plant biomass, where a 26% increase was recorded. LAI, which is considered a reliable growth index, did not show statistically significant differences between treatments throughout the growth period. On the contrary, significant differences were recorded in endomycorrhizal colonization one day before the final harvest, with CA plants exhibiting 20% colonization, while the conventional tillage plants hardly reached 1%. The on-going analyses of potential nitrification measurements, as well as nitrate and ammonium determination, will shed light on the effects of CA on key processes in the soil. These results will integrate the assessment of CA impact on certain below and above-ground processes during wheat cultivation under the Mediterranean climate.

Keywords: conservation agriculture, LAI, mycorrhizal colonization, potential nitrification, wheat, yield

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Authors: Tirtha Raj Adhikari, Lochan Prasad Devkota

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This research studied the hydrological regime of three glacierized river basins in Khumbu, Langtang and Annapurna regions of Nepal using the Hydraologiska Byrans Vattenbalansavde (HBV), HVB-light 3.0 model. Future scenario of discharge is also studied using downscaled climate data derived from statistical downscaling method. General Circulation Models (GCMs) successfully simulate future climate variability and climate change on a global scale; however, poor spatial resolution constrains their application for impact studies at a regional or a local level. The dynamically downscaled precipitation and temperature data from Coupled Global Circulation Model 3 (CGCM3) was used for the climate projection, under A2 and A1B SRES scenarios. In addition, the observed historical temperature, precipitation and discharge data were collected from 14 different hydro-metrological locations for the implementation of this study, which include watershed and hydro-meteorological characteristics, trends analysis and water balance computation. The simulated precipitation and temperature were corrected for bias before implementing in the HVB-light 3.0 conceptual rainfall-runoff model to predict the flow regime, in which Groups Algorithms Programming (GAP) optimization approach and then calibration were used to obtain several parameter sets which were finally reproduced as observed stream flow. Except in summer, the analysis showed that the increasing trends in annual as well as seasonal precipitations during the period 2001 - 2060 for both A2 and A1B scenarios over three basins under investigation. In these river basins, the model projected warmer days in every seasons of entire period from 2001 to 2060 for both A1B and A2 scenarios. These warming trends are higher in maximum than in minimum temperatures throughout the year, indicating increasing trend of daily temperature range due to recent global warming phenomenon. Furthermore, there are decreasing trends in summer discharge in Langtang Khola (Langtang region) which is increasing in Modi Khola (Annapurna region) as well as Dudh Koshi (Khumbu region) river basin. The flow regime is more pronounced during later parts of the future decades than during earlier parts in all basins. The annual water surplus of 1419 mm, 177 mm and 49 mm are observed in Annapurna, Langtang and Khumbu region, respectively.

Keywords: temperature, precipitation, water discharge, water balance, global warming

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Authors: Ahmed A. El-Gindy, Elham S. El-Nashar, Abdallah Nafaa, Sameh El-Kafrawy

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The generation of energy from marine energy became one of the most preferable resources since it is a clean source and friendly to environment. Egypt has long shores along Mediterranean with important cities that need energy resources with significant wave energy. No detailed studies have been done on wave energy distribution in the Egyptian waters. The objective of this paper is to assess the energy wave power available in the Egyptian waters for the choice of the most suitable devices to be used in this area. This paper deals the characteristics and power of the offshore waves in the Egyptian waters. Since the field observations of waves are not frequent and need much technical work, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis data in Mediterranean, with a grid size 0.75 degree, which is a relatively course grid, are considered in the present study for preliminary assessment of sea waves characteristics and power. The used data covers the period from 2012 to 2014. The data used are significant wave height (swh), mean wave period (mwp) and wave direction taken at six hourly intervals, at seven chosen stations, and at grid points covering the Egyptian waters. The wave power (wp) formula was used to calculate energy flux. Descriptive statistical analysis including monthly means and standard deviations of the swh, mwp, and wp. The percentiles of wave heights and their corresponding power are done, as a tool of choice of the best technology suitable for the site. The surfer is used to show spatial distributions of wp. The analysis of data at chosen 7 stations determined the potential of wp off important Egyptian cities. Offshore of Al Saloum and Marsa Matruh, the highest wp occurred in January and February (16.93-18.05) ± (18.08-22.12) kw/m while the lowest occurred in June and October (1.49-1.69) ± (1.45-1.74) kw/m. In front of Alexandria and Rashid, the highest wp occurred in January and February (16.93-18.05) ± (18.08-22.12) kw/m while the lowest occurred in June and September (1.29-2.01) ± (1.31-1.83) kw/m. In front of Damietta and Port Said, the highest wp occurred in February (14.29-17.61) ± (21.61-27.10) kw/m and the lowest occurred in June (0.94-0.96) ± (0.71-0.72) kw/m. In winter, the probabilities of waves higher than 0.8 m in percentage were, at Al Saloum and Marsa Matruh (76.56-80.33) ± (11.62-12.05), at Alexandria and Rashid (73.67-74.79) ± (16.21-18.59) and at Damietta and Port Said (66.28-68.69) ± (17.88-17.90). In spring, the percentiles were, at Al Saloum and Marsa Matruh, (48.17-50.92) ± (5.79-6.56), at Alexandria and Rashid, (39.38-43.59) ± (9.06-9.34) and at Damietta and Port Said, (31.59-33.61) ± (10.72-11.25). In summer, the probabilities were, at Al Saloum and Marsa Matruh (57.70-66.67) ± (4.87-6.83), at Alexandria and Rashid (59.96-65.13) ± (9.14-9.35) and at Damietta and Port Said (46.38-49.28) ± (10.89-11.47). In autumn, the probabilities were, at Al Saloum and Marsa Matruh (58.75-59.56) ± (2.55-5.84), at Alexandria and Rashid (47.78-52.13) ± (3.11-7.08) and at Damietta and Port Said (41.16-42.52) ± (7.52-8.34).

Keywords: distribution of sea waves energy, Egyptian Mediterranean waters, waves characteristics, waves power

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Authors: Abidemi C. Adegboye, Nosakhare Ikponmwosa, Rogers A. Akinsokeji

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For many resource-rich developing countries, fiscal policy has become a key tool used for short-run fiscal management since it is considered as playing a critical role in injecting part of resource rents into the economies. However, given its instability, reliance on revenue from commodity exports renders fiscal management, budgetary planning and the efficient use of public resources difficult. In this study, the linkage between commodity prices and fiscal operations among a sample of commodity-exporting countries in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is investigated. The main question is whether commodity price fluctuations affects the effectiveness of fiscal policy as a macroeconomic stabilization tool in these countries. Fiscal management effectiveness is considered as the ability of fiscal policy to react countercyclically to output gaps in the economy. Fiscal policy is measured as the ratio of fiscal deficit to GDP and the ratio of government spending to GDP, output gap is measured as a Hodrick-Prescott filter of output growth for each country, while commodity prices are associated with each country based on its main export commodity. Given the dynamic nature of fiscal policy effects on the economy overtime, a dynamic framework is devised for the empirical analysis. The panel cointegration and error correction methodology is used to explain the relationships. In particular, the study employs the panel ECM technique to trace short-term effects of commodity prices on fiscal management and also uses the fully modified OLS (FMOLS) technique to determine the long run relationships. These procedures provide sufficient estimation of the dynamic effects of commodity prices on fiscal policy. Data used cover the period 1992 to 2016 for 11 SSA countries. The study finds that the elasticity of the fiscal policy measures with respect to the output gap is significant and positive, suggesting that fiscal policy is actually procyclical among the countries in the sample. This implies that fiscal management for these countries follows the trend of economic performance. Moreover, it is found that fiscal policy has not performed well in delivering macroeconomic stabilization for these countries. The difficulty in applying fiscal stabilization measures is attributable to the unstable revenue inflows due to the highly volatile nature of commodity prices in the international market. For commodity-exporting countries in SSA to improve fiscal management, therefore, fiscal planning should be largely decoupled from commodity revenues, domestic revenue bases must be improved, and longer period perspectives in fiscal policy management are the critical suggestions in this study.

Keywords: commodity prices, ECM, fiscal policy, fiscal procyclicality, fully modified OLS, sub-saharan africa

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Authors: Gechbaia Badri

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In the article, it is studied and realized the perfection issues of service sphere management in Georgia’s reality. As stated above, to transfer the country's economy onto marketing relationships, to form competitive dynamic market is dictated by the time and represents objective necessity. In the last period, the abruptly increasing of changes on science and education caused servicing sphere and producing skills, consumptions based on fields of places and changing role in a structure of the national economy. The main recourse in the new system of the economy became the intellectual capital. The economical progress is significantly determined by developing informational technologies. In the article, it is investigated the service problems of different fields of national economy and are given sentences to settle these problems.

Keywords: service management, service, paradigm, business and management engineering

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Authors: Darrol Stanley, Levan Efremidze, Jannie Rossouw

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We investigate the predictability of the USD/ZAR (South African Rand) exchange rate with sample entropy analytics for the period of 2004-2015. We calculate sample entropy based on the daily data of the exchange rate and conduct empirical implementation of several market timing rules based on these entropy signals. The dynamic investment portfolio based on entropy signals produces better risk adjusted performance than a buy and hold strategy. The returns are estimated on the portfolio values in U.S. dollars. These results are preliminary and do not yet account for reasonable transactions costs, although these are very small in currency markets.

Keywords: currency trading, entropy, market timing, risk factor model

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Authors: Sabrina Mortet

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The economic crisis, which struck the world economy in mid-2008, had an impact on migration in Europe, especially the employment situation of migrant workers. That’s why migrants tended to be the first to lose their jobs during the crisis, victims of the rule "last–in, first-out”. In the same context, the economic recession which affected the migration flows, immigration level has slowed while emigration has increased in some European countries. Since people go where jobs are, we will try to speak about the mobility of migrants after the crisis by focusing on return migration to see if migrants in the period of recession prefer going home or staying in the host country; and we will take Spain as a case of study, because it had attracted an extraordinarily high inflows of migration and it is one of the EU country which was hardly affected by the financial crisis.

Keywords: economic crisis, international migration, mobility, return migration, employement

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Authors: Drazen Simlesa, Jelena Pudjak, Anita Tonkovic Busljeta

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Regarding social economy (SE), Croatia is, on general level, considered as ex-communist country with good tradition, bad performance in second part of 20th Century because of political control in the business sector, which has in transition period (1990-1999) became a problem of ignorance in public administration (policy level). Today, social economy in Croatia is trying to catch up with other EU states on all important levels of SE sector: legislative and institutional framework, financial infrastructure, education and capacity building, and visibility. All four are integral parts of Strategy for the Development of Social Entrepreneurship in the Republic of Croatia for the period of 2015 – 2020. Within iPRESENT project, funded by Croatian Science Foundation, we have mapped social economy actors and after many years there is a clear and up to date social economy base. At the ICSE 2016 we will present main outcomes and results of this process. In the second year of the project we conducted a field research across Croatia carried out 19 focus groups with most influential, innovative and inspirational social economy actors. We divided interview questions in four themes: laws on social economy and public policies, definition/ideology of social economy and cooperation on SE scene, the level of democracy and working conditions, motivation and existence of intrinsic values. The data that are gathered through focus group interviews has been analysed via qualitative data analysis software (Atlas ti.). Major finding that will be presented in ICSA 2016 are: Social economy actors are mostly unsatisfied with legislative and institutional framework in Croatia and consider it as unsupportive and confusing. Social economy actors consider SE to be in the line with WISE model and as a tool for community development. The SE actors that are more active express satisfaction with cooperation amongst SE actors and other partners and stakeholders, but the ones that are in more isolated conditions (spatially) express need for more cooperation and networking. Social economy actors expressed their praise for democratic atmosphere in their organisations and fair working conditions. And finally, they expressed high motivation to continue to work in the social economy and are dedicated to the concept, including even those that were at the beginning interested just in getting a quick job. It means that we can detect intrinsic values for employees in social economy organisations. This research enabled us to describe for the first time in Croatia the view from the inside, attitudes and opinion of employees of social economy organisations.

Keywords: employees, focus groups, mapping, social economy

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Authors: Bayoumy Mohamed, Khaled Alam El-Din

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In the present study, 24 years of gridded sea level anomalies (SLA) from satellite altimetry and sea surface temperature (SST) from advanced very-high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) daily data (1993-2016) are used. These data have been used to investigate the sea level rising and warming rates of SST, and their spatial distribution in the Mediterranean Sea. The results revealed that there is a significant sea level rise in the Mediterranean Sea of 2.86 ± 0.45 mm/year together with a significant warming of 0.037 ± 0.007 °C/year. The high spatial correlation between sea level and SST variations suggests that at least part of the sea level change reported during the period of study was due to heating of surface layers. This indicated that the steric effect had a significant influence on sea level change in the Mediterranean Sea.

Keywords: altimetry, AVHRR, Mediterranean Sea, sea level and SST changes, trend analysis

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Authors: Sami Mestiri, Abdeljelil Farhat

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The aim of this current paper is to predict the credit risk of banks in Tunisia, over the period (2000-2005). For this purpose, two methods for the estimation of the logistic regression model with random effects: Penalized Quasi Likelihood (PQL) method and Gibbs Sampler algorithm are applied. By using the information on a sample of 528 Tunisian firms and 26 financial ratios, we show that Bayesian approach improves the quality of model predictions in terms of good classification as well as by the ROC curve result.

Keywords: forecasting, credit risk, Penalized Quasi Likelihood, Gibbs Sampler, logistic regression with random effects, curve ROC

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Authors: Bahram Fathi, Mahdi Khodaparast Mashhadi, Masuod Homayounifar

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According to 1404 forecasting documentation, among the most fundamental ways of Iran’s success in competition with other regional countries are innovations, efficiency enhancements and domestic productivity. Therefore, in this study, the energy consumption efficiency of Iran and the neighbor countries has been measured in the period between 2007-2012 considering the simultaneous economic activities, CO2 emission, and consumption of energy through data envelopment analysis of undesirable output. The results of the study indicated that the energy efficiency changes in both Iran and the average neighbor countries has been on a descending trend and Iran’s energy efficiency status is not desirable compared to the other countries in the region.

Keywords: energy efficiency, environmental, undesirable output, data envelopment analysis

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Authors: David A. Scott, Michelle G. Scott

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The problem of juvenile crime, school suspensions and oppositional behaviors indicates a need for a wide range of intervention programs for at-risk youth. Juvenile court systems and mental health agencies are examining alternative ways to deal with at-risk youth that will allow the adolescent to live within their home community. The previous trend that treatment away from home is more effective than treatment near one's community has shifted. Research now suggests that treatment be close to home for several reasons, such as increased treatment success, parental involvement, and reduced costs. Treatment options consist of a wide range of interventions, including outpatient, inpatient, and community-based services (therapeutic group homes, foster care and in-home preservation services). The juvenile justice system, families and other mental health agencies continue to seek the most effective treatment for at-risk youth in their communities. This research examines two possible treatment modalities, a multi-systemic outpatient program and a residential program. Research examining effective, evidence- based counseling will be discussed during this presentation. The presenter recently completed a three-year research grant examining effective treatment modalities for at-risk youth participating in a multi-systemic program. The presenter has also been involved in several research activities gathering data on effective techniques used in residential programs. The data and discussion will be broken down into two parts, each discussing one of the treatment modalities mentioned above. Data on the residential programs was collected on both a sample of 740 at- risk youth over a five-year period and also a sample of 63 participants during a one-year period residing in a residential programs. The effectiveness of these residential services was measured in three ways: services are evaluated by primary referral sources; follow-up data is obtained at various intervals after program participation to measure recidivism (what percentage got back into trouble with the Department of Juvenile Justice); and a more sensitive, "Offense Seriousness Score", has been computed and analyzed prior to, during and after treatment in the residential program. Data on the multi-systemic program was gathered over the past three years on 190 participants. Research will discuss pre and post test results, recidivism rates, academic performance, parental involvement, and effective counseling treatment modalities.

Keywords: at-risk youth, group homes, therapeutic group homes, recidivism rates

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Authors: Ira V. Stancheva, Ely G. Zayova, Maria P. Geneva, Marieta G. Hristozkova, Lyudmila I. Dimitrova, Maria I. Petrova

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The study describes a highly efficient and low-cost protocol for rapid and mass in vitro propagation of medicinal and aromatic plant species (Hyssopus officinalis L., Lamiaceae). Hyssop is an important aromatic herb used for its medicinal values because of its antioxidant, anti-inflammatory and antimicrobial properties. The protocol for large-scale multiplication of this aromatic plant was developed using young stem tips explants. The explants were sterilized with 0.04% mercuric chloride (HgCl₂) solution for 20 minutes and washing three times with sterile distilled water in 15 minutes. The cultural media was full and half strength Murashige and Skoog medium containing indole-3-butyric acid. Full and ½ Murashige and Skoog media without auxin were used as controls. For each variant 20 glass tubes with two plants were used. In each tube two tip and nodal explants were inoculated. Maximum shoot and root number were obtained on ½ Murashige and Skoog medium supplemented with 0.1 mg L-1 indole-3-butyric acid at the same time after four weeks of culture. The number of shoots per explant and shoot height were considered. The data on rooting percentage, the number of roots per plant and root length were collected after the same cultural period. The highest percentage of survival 85% for this medicinal plant was recorded in mixture of soil, sand and perlite (2:1:1 v/v/v). This mixture was most suitable for acclimatization of all propagated plants. Ex vitro acclimatization was carried out at 24±1 °C and 70% relative humidity under 16 h illuminations (50 μmol m⁻²s⁻¹). After adaptation period, the all plants were transferred to the field. The plants flowered within three months after transplantation. Phenotypic variations in the acclimatized plants were not observed. An average of 90% of the acclimatized plants survived after transferring into the field. All the in vitro propagated plants displayed normal development under the field conditions. Developed in vitro techniques could provide a promising alternative tool for large-scale propagation that increases the number of homologous plants for field cultivation. Acknowledgments: This study was conducted with financial support from National Science Fund at the Bulgarian Ministry of Education and Science, Project DN06/7 17.12.16.

Keywords: Hyssopus officinalis L., in vitro culture, micro propagation, acclimatization

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Authors: Bernur Acikgoz

Abstract:

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of public spending on economic growth and examine the sources of economic growth in developed countries since the 1990s. This paper analyses whether public spending effect on economic growth based on Cobb-Douglas Production Function with the two econometric models with Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) and Dynamic Fixed Effect (DFE) for 21 developed countries (high-income OECD countries), over the period 1990-2013. Our models results are parallel to each other and the models support that public spending has an important role for economic growth. This result is accurate with theories and previous empirical studies.

Keywords: public spending, economic growth, panel data, ARDL models

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Authors: Mojdeh Chelemal Dezfoul Nejad, Masomeh Moradi, Mehrzad Mesbah, Mehran Javaheri Babouli

Abstract:

This study was conducted in order to characterize the different levels of dietary vitamin C on some of biochemical parameters of Barbuas grypus. For this purpose 300 Barbuas grypus were divided into 15 groups. five levels of vitamin C (0, 200 ,400,800,1600 mg kg-1 diet) and their combination were used to prepare five experimental diets. The fish were fed 3% of their wet b.wt. per day for a 60 days period. Blood samples were obtained from six fish of each tank at the end of experiment. The results reveal that fish fed diets containing 1600 mg kg^-1 vitamin C had the significant decreased in the mean amount of cholesterol, glucose and triglyceride (p<0.05). Also, there was no significant difference in the mean amount of total protein with the different diets designed for this experiment (p>0.05).

Keywords: Barbuas, grypus, vitamin C, biochemical parameters

Procedia PDF Downloads 515

Authors: Laurence Weinberg, Dominic Walpole, Dong-Kyu Lee, Michael D’Silva, Jian W. Chan, Lachlan F. Miles, Bradley Carp, Adam Wells, Tuck S. Ngun, Siven Seevanayagam, George Matalanis, Ziauddin Ansari, Rinaldo Bellomo, Michael Yii

Abstract:

Background: There have been multiple recent advancements in the selection, optimization and management of cardiac surgical patients. However, there is limited data regarding the outcomes of nonagenarians undergoing cardiac surgery, despite this vulnerable cohort increasingly receiving these interventions. This study describes the patient characteristics, management and outcomes of a group of nonagenarians undergoing cardiac surgery in the context of contemporary peri-operative care. Methods: A retrospective observational study was conducted of patients 90 to 99 years of age (i.e., nonagenarians) who had undergone cardiac surgery requiring a classic median sternotomy (i.e., open-heart surgery). All operative indications were included. Patients who underwent minimally invasive surgery, transcatheter aortic valve implantation and thoracic aorta surgery were excluded. Data were collected from four hospitals in Victoria, Australia, over an 8-year period (January 2012 – December 2019). The primary objective was to assess six-month mortality in nonagenarians undergoing open-heart surgery and to evaluate the incidence and severity of postoperative complications using the Clavien-Dindo classification system. The secondary objective was to provide a detailed description of the characteristics and peri-operative management of this group. Results: A total of 12,358 adult patients underwent cardiac surgery at the study centers during the observation period, of whom 18 nonagenarians (0.15%) fulfilled the inclusion criteria. The median (IQR) [min-max] age was 91 years (90.0:91.8) [90-94] and 14 patients (78%) were men. Cardiovascular comorbidities, polypharmacy and frailty, were common. The median (IQR) predicted in-hospital mortality by EuroSCORE II was 6.1% (4.1-14.5). All patients were optimized preoperatively by a multidisciplinary team of surgeons, cardiologists, geriatricians and anesthetists. All index surgeries were performed on cardiopulmonary bypass. Isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and CABG with aortic valve replacement were the most common surgeries being performed in four and five patients, respectively. Half the study group underwent surgery involving two or more major procedures (e.g. CABG and valve replacement). Surgery was undertaken emergently in 44% of patients. All patients except one experienced at least one postoperative complication. The most common complications were acute kidney injury (72%), new atrial fibrillation (44%) and delirium (39%). The highest Clavien-Dindo complication grade was IIIb occurring once each in three patients. Clavien-Dindo grade IIIa complications occurred in only one patient. The median (IQR) postoperative length of stay was 11.6 days (9.8:17.6). One patient was discharged home and all others to an inpatient rehabilitation facility. Three patients had an unplanned readmission within 30 days of discharge. All patients had follow-up to at least six months after surgery and mortality over this period was zero. The median (IQR) duration of follow-up was 11.3 months (6.0:26.4) and there were no cases of mortality observed within the available follow-up records. Conclusion: In this group of nonagenarians undergoing cardiac surgery, postoperative six-month mortality was zero. Complications were common but generally of low severity. These findings support carefully selected nonagenarian patients being offered cardiac surgery in the context of contemporary, multidisciplinary perioperative care. Further, studies are needed to assess longer-term mortality and functional and quality of life outcomes in this vulnerable surgical cohort.

Keywords: cardiac surgery, mortality, nonagenarians, postoperative complications

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Authors: Cahyaningsih Cahyaningsih, Fu'ad Rakhman

Abstract:

This study examines empirically the association between corporate social responsibility (CSR) and tax avoidance. This study also investigates the effect of earnings on the relation between CSR and tax avoidance. Effective tax rate (ETR) and cash effective tax rate (CETR) were used to measure tax avoidance. Corporate social responsibility fund (CSRF) and corporate social responsibility disclosure (CSRD) were used as proxies for CSR. Test was conducted for public firms which were listed in the Indonesia Stock Exchange during the period of 2011-2014. Based on slack resource theory, this study finds that the relation between CSR and tax avoidance is moderated by earnings.

Keywords: corporate social responsibility disclosure, corporate social responsibility fund, earnings, tax avoidance

Procedia PDF Downloads 279

Authors: Sasirin Srisomkiew, Sireewan Ratsadornasai, Tanomkwan Tipvong, Isariya Meesing

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Cassava is an important food source in the tropics and has recently gained attention as a potential source of biofuel that can replace limited fossil fuel sources. As a result, the demand for cassava production to support industries both within the country and abroad has increased. In Thailand, most farmers prefer to grow cassava in sandy and sandy loam areas where the soil has low natural fertility. Cassava is a tuber plant that has large roots to store food, resulting in the absorption of large amounts of nutrients from the soil, such as nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium. Therefore, planting cassava in the same area for a long period causes soil erosion and decreases soil fertility. The loss of soil fertility affects the economy, society, and food and energy security of the country. Therefore, it is necessary to know the level of soil fertility and the amount of nutrients in the soil. To address this problem, this study applies geo-informatics technology and mathematical equations to assess erosion and soil fertility and to analyze factors affecting the amount of cassava production in Maha Sarakham Province. The results show that the area for cassava cultivation has increased in every district of Maha Sarakham Province between 2015-2022, with the total area increasing to 180,922 rai or 5.47% of the province’s total area during this period. Furthermore, it was found that it is possible to assess areas with soil erosion problems that had a moderate level of erosion in areas with high erosion rates ranging from 5-15 T/rai/year. Soil fertility assessment and information obtained from the soil nutrient map for 2015–2023 reveal that farmers in the area have improved the soil by adding chemical fertilizers along with organic fertilizers, such as manure and green manure, to increase the amount of nutrients in the soil. This is because the soil resources of Maha Sarakham Province mostly have relatively low agricultural potential due to the soil texture being sand and sandy loam. In this scenario, the ability to absorb nutrients is low, and the soil holds little water, so it is naturally low in fertility. Moreover, agricultural soil problems were found, including the presence of saline soil, sandy soil, and acidic soil, which is a serious restriction on land use because it affects the release of nutrients into the soil. The results of this study may be used as a guideline for managing soil resources and improving soil quality to prevent soil degradation problems that may occur in the future.

Keywords: Cassava, geoinformatics, soil erosion, soil fertility, land use change

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