Search results for: interpolatory model reduction

Authors: Vineetha Bettaiah, Heggere S. Ranganath

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This paper presents a Hierarchical Piecewise Linear Approximation (HPLA) for the representation of time series data in which the time series is treated as a curve in the time-amplitude image space. The curve is partitioned into segments by choosing perceptually important points as break points. Each segment between adjacent break points is recursively partitioned into two segments at the best point or midpoint until the error between the approximating line and the original curve becomes less than a pre-specified threshold. The HPLA representation achieves dimensionality reduction while preserving prominent local features and general shape of time series. The representation permits course-fine processing at different levels of details, allows flexible definition of similarity based on mathematical measures or general time series shape, and supports time series data mining operations including query by content, clustering and classification based on whole or subsequence similarity.

Keywords: data mining, dimensionality reduction, piecewise linear representation, time series representation

Procedia PDF Downloads 272

Authors: Salah Al-Din I. Badran, Samad Ahmadi, Ismail Shahin

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A blind source separation method is proposed; in this method, we use a non-uniform filter bank and a novel normalisation. This method provides a reduced computational complexity and increased convergence speed comparing to the full-band algorithm. Recently, adaptive sub-band scheme has been recommended to solve two problems: reduction of computational complexity and increase the convergence speed of the adaptive algorithm for correlated input signals. In this work, the reduction in computational complexity is achieved with the use of adaptive filters of orders less than the full-band adaptive filters, which operate at a sampling rate lower than the sampling rate of the input signal. The decomposed signals by analysis bank filter are less correlated in each subband than the input signal at full bandwidth, and can promote better rates of convergence.

Keywords: blind source separation, computational complexity, subband, convergence speed, mixture

Procedia PDF Downloads 572

Authors: Isik Cetintav, Cenk Misirli, Yilmaz Can, Damla Gunel

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This work investigates experimental and numerical analysis of open die forging of multimetallic materials. Multimetallic material production has recently become an interesting research field. The mechanical properties of the materials to be used for the formation of multimetallic materials and the mechanical properties of the multimetallic materials produced will be compared and the material flows of the use of different lubricants will be examined. Furthermore, in this work, the mechanical properties of multimetallic metallic materials produced using different materials will be examined by using different lubricants. The advantages and disadvantages of different lubricants will be approached with the bi-metallic material to be produced. Cylindrical specimens consisting of two different materials were used in the experiments. Specimens were prepared as aluminum sleeve and copper core and upset at different reduction. This metal combination present a material model of which chemical composition is different. ABAQUS software was used for the simulations. Simulation and experimental results have also shown reasonable agreement.

Keywords: multimetallic, forging, experimental, numerical

Procedia PDF Downloads 275

Authors: Abdul Qader Melhm, Hussein Elrafidi

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This paper is dealing with studying the structural behavior of a steel-composite hollow reinforced concrete (RC) column model under combined eccentric loading. The composite model consists of an inner steel tube surrounded via a concrete core with longitudinal and circular transverse reinforcement. The radius of gyration according to American and Euro specifications be calculated, in order to calculate the thinnest ratio for this type of composite column model, in addition to the flexural rigidity. Formulas for interaction diagram is given for this type of model, which is a general loading conditions in which an element is exposed to an axial load with bending at the same time. The structural capacity of this model, elastic, plastic loads and strains will be computed and compared with experimental results. The total eccentric axial load of the column model is calculated based on the effective length KL available from several relationships provided in the paper. Furthermore, the inner tube experiences buckling failure after reaching its maximum strength will be investigated.

Keywords: column, composite, eccentric, inner tube, interaction, reinforcement

Procedia PDF Downloads 187

Authors: Hassan Youssef Mohamed

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In this paper, we show new wave equations, and by using the equations, we concluded that the strong force and the weak force are not fundamental, but they are quantum effects for electromagnetism. This result is different from the current scientific understanding about strong and weak interactions at all. So, we introduce three evidences for our theory. First, we prove the asymptotic freedom phenomenon in the strong force by using our model. Second, we derive the nuclear shell model as an approximation of our model. Third, we prove that the leptons do not participate in the strong interactions, and we prove the short ranges of weak and strong interactions. So, our model is consistent with the current understanding of physics. Finally, we introduce the electron-positron model as the basic ingredients for protons, neutrons, and all matters, so we can study all particles interactions and nuclear interaction as many-body problems of electrons and positrons. Also, we prove the violation of parity conservation in weak interaction as evidence of our theory in the weak interaction. Also, we calculate the average of the binding energy per nucleon.

Keywords: new wave equations, the strong force, the grand unification theory, hydrogen atom, weak force, the nuclear shell model, the asymptotic freedom, electron-positron model, the violation of parity conservation, the binding energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 171

Authors: A. S. Mousa, F. Shoman

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We present a discrete game theoretical model with homogeneous individuals who make simultaneous decisions. In this model the strategy space of all individuals is a discrete and dichotomous set which consists of two strategies. We fully characterize the coherent, split and mixed strategies that form Nash equilibria and we determine the corresponding Nash domains for all individuals. We find all strategic thresholds in which individuals can change their mind if small perturbations in the parameters of the model occurs.

Keywords: coherent strategy, split strategy, pure strategy, mixed strategy, Nash equilibrium, game theory

Procedia PDF Downloads 140

Authors: Seok-Tae Yoon, Jae-Yeong Choi, Gyu-Mok Jeon, Yong-Jin Cho, Jong-Chun Park

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Conventional submarines obtain propulsive force by using an electric propulsion system consisting of a diesel generator, battery, motor, and propeller. In the underwater, the submarine uses the electric power stored in the battery. After that, when a certain amount of electric power is consumed, the submarine floats near the sea water surface and recharges the electric power by using the diesel generator. The voyage carried out while charging the power is called a snorkel, and the high-temperature exhaust gas from the diesel generator forms a heat distribution on the sea water surface. The heat distribution is detected by weapon system equipped with thermo-detector and that is the main cause of reducing the survivability of the submarine. In this paper, an experimental study was carried out to establish optimal operating conditions of a submarine for reduction of infrared signature radiated from the sea water surface. For this, a hot gas generating system and a round acrylic water tank with adjustable water level were made. The control variables of the experiment were set as the mass flow rate, the temperature difference between the water and the hot gas in the water tank, and the water level difference between the air outlet and the water surface. The experimental instrumentation used a thermocouple of T-type to measure the released air temperature on the surface of the water, and a thermography system to measure the thermal energy distribution on the water surface. As a result of the experiment study, we analyzed the correlation between the final released temperature of the exhaust pipe exit in a submarine and the depth of the snorkel, and presented reasonable operating conditions for the infrared signature reduction of submarine.

Keywords: experiment study, flow rate, infrared signature, snorkeling, thermography

Procedia PDF Downloads 347

Authors: Hyun-Kyu Cho, Jun-Su Kim, Choon-Geun Huh, Geon Lee Young-Chul Park

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In this study, the relationship between flow properties and fluid projection distance look into connection for shape variations of foam monitor. A numerical analysis technique for fluid analysis of a foam monitor was developed for the prediction. Shape of foam monitor the flow path of fluid flow according to the shape, The fluid losses were calculated from flow analysis result.. The modified model used the length increase model of the flow path, and straight line of the model. Inlet pressure was 7 [bar] and external was atmosphere codition. am. The results showed that the length increase model of the flow path and straight line of the model was improved in the nozzle projection distance.

Keywords: injection performance, finite element method, foam monitor, Projection distance

Procedia PDF Downloads 340

Authors: Bello Gonzalez, Setten Van M., Brouwer M.

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The chicken small intestine represents a dynamic and complex organ in which the enzymatic digestion and absorption of nutrients take place. The development of an in vitro fermentation chicken small intestinal model could be used as an alternative to explore the interaction between the microbiota and nutrient metabolism and to enhance the efficacy of targeting interventions to improve animal health. In the present study we have developed an in vitro fermentation chicken ileum microbiota model for unrevealing the complex interaction of ileum microbial community under physiological conditions. A two-vessel continuous fermentation process simulating in real-time the physiological conditions of the ileum content (pH, temperature, microaerophilic/anoxic conditions, and peristaltic movements) has been standardized as a proof of concept. As inoculum, we use a pool of ileum microbial community obtained from chicken broilers at the age of day 14. The development and validation of the model provide insight into the initial characterization of the ileum microbial community and its dynamics over time-related to nutrient assimilation and fermentation. Samples can be collected at different time points and can be used to determine the microbial compositional structure, dynamics, and diversity over time. The results of studies using this in vitro model will serve as the foundation for the development of a whole small intestine in vitro fermentation chicken gastrointestinal model to complement our already established in vitro fermentation chicken caeca model. The insight gained from this model could provide us with some information about the nutritional strategies to restore and maintain chicken gut homeostasis. Moreover, the in vitro fermentation model will also allow us to study relationships between gut microbiota composition and its dynamics over time associated with nutrients, antimicrobial compounds, and disease modelling.

Keywords: broilers, in vitro model, ileum microbiota, fermentation

Procedia PDF Downloads 45

Authors: Sikiru Ademola Adewale, Joe Thomas, Bolanle Hafiz Matti, Tosin Ige

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This project demonstrates the implementation and use of an encoder-decoder model to perform a many-to-many mapping of video data to text captions. The many-to-many mapping occurs via an input temporal sequence of video frames to an output sequence of words to form a caption sentence. Data preprocessing, model construction, and model training are discussed. Caption correctness is evaluated using 2-gram BLEU scores across the different splits of the dataset. Specific examples of output captions were shown to demonstrate model generality over the video temporal dimension. Predicted captions were shown to generalize over video action, even in instances where the video scene changed dramatically. Model architecture changes are discussed to improve sentence grammar and correctness.

Keywords: decoder, encoder, many-to-many mapping, video captioning, 2-gram BLEU

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Authors: Fuad M. Alkoot

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Different experimental technologies such as microarray sequencing have been proposed to generate high-resolution genetic data, in order to understand the complex dynamic interactions between complex diseases and the biological system components of genes and gene products. However, the generated samples have a very large dimension reaching thousands. Therefore, hindering all attempts to design a classifier system that can identify diseases based on such data. Additionally, the high overlap in the class distributions makes the task more difficult. The data we experiment with is generated for the identification of autism. It includes 142 samples, which is small compared to the large dimension of the data. The classifier systems trained on this data yield very low classification rates that are almost equivalent to a guess. We aim at reducing the data dimension and improve it for classification. Here, we experiment with applying a multistage PCA on the genetic data to reduce its dimensionality. Results show a significant improvement in the classification rates which increases the possibility of building an automated system for autism detection.

Keywords: PCA, gene expression, dimensionality reduction, classification, autism

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Authors: Devineni Vijay Bhaskar, Yendluri Raja

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We recommend a model for traffic sign detection stranded on Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN). We first renovate the unique image into the gray scale image through with support vector machines, then use convolutional neural networks with fixed and learnable layers for revealing and understanding. The permanent layer can reduction the amount of attention areas to notice and crop the limits very close to the boundaries of traffic signs. The learnable coverings can rise the accuracy of detection significantly. Besides, we use bootstrap procedures to progress the accuracy and avoid overfitting problem. In the German Traffic Sign Detection Benchmark, we obtained modest results, with an area under the precision-recall curve (AUC) of 99.49% in the group “Risk”, and an AUC of 96.62% in the group “Obligatory”.

Keywords: convolutional neural network, support vector machine, detection, traffic signs, bootstrap procedures, precision-recall curve

Procedia PDF Downloads 113

Authors: A. Bayaga

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This research provides a technical account of estimating Transition Probability using Time-homogeneous Markov Jump Process applying by South African HIV/AIDS data from the Statistics South Africa. It employs Maximum Likelihood Estimator (MLE) model to explore the possible influence of Transition Probability of mortality cases in which case the data was based on actual Statistics South Africa. This was conducted via an integrated demographic and epidemiological model of South African HIV/AIDS epidemic. The model was fitted to age-specific HIV prevalence data and recorded death data using MLE model. Though the previous model results suggest HIV in South Africa has declined and AIDS mortality rates have declined since 2002 – 2013, in contrast, our results differ evidently with the generally accepted HIV models (Spectrum/EPP and ASSA2008) in South Africa. However, there is the need for supplementary research to be conducted to enhance the demographic parameters in the model and as well apply it to each of the nine (9) provinces of South Africa.

Keywords: AIDS mortality rates, epidemiological model, time-homogeneous markov jump process, transition probability, statistics South Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 486

Authors: Dileep Maarisetty, Janaki Komandur, Saroj S. Baral

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In the current work, photocatalytic degradation of phenol was carried both in UV and visible light to find the slowest step that is limiting the rate of photo-degradation process. Characterization such as XRD, SEM, FT-IR, TEM, XPS, UV-DRS, PL, BET, UPS, ESR and zeta potential experiments were conducted to assess the credibility of catalysts in boosting the photocatalytic activity. To explore the synergy, TiO₂ was doped with graphene and alumina. The orbital hybridization with alumina doping (mediated by graphene) resulted in higher electron transfer from the conduction band of TiO₂ to alumina surface where oxygen reduction reactions (ORR) occur. Besides, the doping of alumina and graphene introduced defects into Ti lattice and helped in improving the adsorptive properties of modified photo-catalyst. Results showed that these defects promoted the oxygen reduction reactions (ORR) on the catalyst’s surface. ORR activity aims at producing reactive oxygen species (ROS). These ROS species oxidizes the phenol molecules which is adsorbed on the surface of photo-catalysts, thereby driving the photocatalytic reactions. Since mass transfer is considered as rate limiting step, various mathematical models were applied to the experimental data to probe the best fit. By varying the parameters, it was found that intra-particle diffusion was the slowest step in the degradation process. Lagergren model gave the best R² values indicating the nature of rate kinetics. Similarly, different adsorption isotherms were employed and realized that Langmuir isotherm suits the best with tremendous increase in uptake capacity (mg/g) of TiO₂-rGO-Al₂O₃ as compared undoped TiO₂. This further assisted in higher adsorption of phenol molecules. The results obtained from experimental, kinetic modelling and adsorption isotherms; it is concluded that apart from changes in surface, optoelectronic and morphological properties that enhanced the photocatalytic activity, the intra-particle diffusion within the catalyst’s pores serve as rate-limiting step in deciding the fate of photo-catalytic degradation of phenol.

Keywords: ORR, phenol degradation, photo-catalyst, rate kinetics

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Authors: Morteza Giti

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As online shopping is becoming increasingly popular, computing customer lifetime value for better knowing the customers is also gaining more importance. Two distinct factors that can affect the value of a customer in the context of online shopping is the number of returned orders and payment method. Returned orders are those which have been shipped but not collected by the customer and are returned to the store. Payment method refers to the way that customers choose to pay for the price of the order which are usually two: Pre-pay and Cash-on-delivery. In this paper, a novel model called RFMSP is presented to calculated the customer lifetime value, taking these two parameters into account. The RFMSP model is based on the common RFM model while adding two extra parameter. The S represents the order status and the P indicates the payment method. As a case study for this model, the purchase history of customers in an online shop is used to compute the customer lifetime value over a period of twenty months.

Keywords: RFMSP model, AHP, customer lifetime value, k-means clustering, e-commerce

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Authors: Leila Torkaman, Nasser Ghassembaglou

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Significant quota of Municipal Electrical Energy consumption is related to Decentralized Air Conditioning which is mostly provided by evaporative coolers. So the aim is to optimize design of air conditioners to increase their efficiencies. To achieve this goal, results of practical standardized tests for 40 evaporative coolers in different types collected and simultaneously results for same coolers based on one of EER (Energy Efficiency Ratio) modeling styles are figured out. By comparing experimental results of different coolers standardized tests with modeling results, preciseness of used model is assessed and after comparing gained preciseness with international standards based on EER for cooling capacity, aeration and also electrical energy consumption, energy label from A (most effective) to G (less effective) is classified. finally needed methods to optimize energy consumption and cooler's classification are provided.

Keywords: cooler, EER, energy label, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 339

Authors: B. J. Mahen, N. E. Lloyd-Gale, S. Johnson, W. P. Rakowicz, M. J. Harris, A. D. Miller

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Background: Migraine is a leading cause of disability in the world. Calcitonin gene-related peptide (CGRP) receptor antagonists offer an approach to migraine prophylaxis by inhibiting the inflammatory and vasodilatory effects of CGRP. In recent years, NICE licensed the use of three CGRP-receptor antagonists: Fremanezumab, Galcanezumab, and Erenumab. Here, we present the outcomes of CGRP-antagonist treatment in a cohort of patients who suffer from episodic or chronic migraine and have failed at least three oral prophylactic therapies. Methods: We offered CGRP antagonists to 86 patients who met the NICE criteria to start therapy. We recorded the number of headache days per month (HDPM) at 0 weeks, 3 months, and 12 months. Of those, 26 patients were switched to an alternative treatment due to poor response or side effects. Of the 112 total cases, 9 cases did not sufficiently maintain their headache diary, and 5 cases were not followed up at 3 months. We have therefore included 98 sets of data in our analysis. Results: Fremanezumab achieved a reduction in HDPM by 51.7% at 3 months (p<0.0001), with 63.7% of patients meeting NICE criteria to continue therapy. Patients trialed on Galcanezumab attained a reduction in HDPM by 47.0% (p=0.0019), with 51.6% of patients meeting NICE criteria to continue therapy. Erenumab, however, only achieved a reduction in HDPM by 17.0% (p=0.29), and this was not statistically significant. Furthermore, 34.4%, 9.7%, and 4.9% of patients taking Fremanezumab, Galcanezumab, and Erenumab, respectively, continued therapy beyond 12 months. Of those who attempted drug holidays following 12 months of treatment, migraine symptoms relapsed in 100% of cases. Conclusion: We observed a significant improvement in HDPM amongst episodic and chronic migraine patients following treatment with Fremanezumab or Galcanezumab.

Keywords: migraine, CGRP, fremanezumab, galcanezumab, erenumab

Procedia PDF Downloads 90

Authors: B. Engel, H. Hassan

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Rotary draw bending is a method which is being used in tube forming. In the tube bending process, the neutral axis moves towards the inner arc and the wall thickness distribution changes for tube’s cross section. Thinning takes place in the outer arc of the tube (extrados) due to the stretching of the material, whereas thickening occurs in the inner arc of the tube (intrados) due to the comparison of the material. The calculations of the wall thickness distribution, neutral axis shifting, and strain distribution have not been accurate enough, so far. The previous model (the geometrical model) describes the neutral axis shifting and wall thickness distribution. The geometrical of the tube, bending radius and bending angle are considered in the geometrical model, while the influence of the material properties of the tube forming are ignored. The advanced model is a modification of the previous model using material properties that depends on the correction factor. The correction factor is a purely empirically determined factor. The advanced model was compared with the Finite element simulation (FE simulation) using a different bending factor (Bf=bending radius/ diameter of the tube), wall thickness (Wf=diameter of the tube/ wall thickness), and material properties (strain hardening exponent). Finite element model of rotary draw bending has been performed in PAM-TUBE program (version: 2012). Results from the advanced model resemble the FE simulation and the experimental test.

Keywords: rotary draw bending, material properties, neutral axis shifting, wall thickness distribution

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Authors: Xiaoling Ren, Guidong Yang

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As one of the largest industrial synthetic chemicals in the world, ammonia has the advantages of high energy density, easy liquefaction, and easy transportation, which is widely used in agriculture, chemical industry, energy storage, and other fields. The industrial Haber-Bosch method process for ammonia synthesis is generally conducted under severe conditions. It is essential to develop a green, sustainable strategy for ammonia production to meet the growing demand. In this direction, photocatalytic nitrogen reduction has huge advantages over the traditional, well-established Haber-Bosch process, such as the utilization of natural sun light as the energy source and significantly lower pressure and temperature to affect the reaction process. However, the high activation energy of nitrogen and the low efficiency of photo-generated electron-hole separation in the photocatalyst result in low ammonia production yield. Many researchers focus on improving the catalyst. In addition to modifying the catalyst, improving the dispersion of the catalyst and making full use of active sites are also means to improve the overall catalytic activity. Few studies have been carried out on this, which is the aim of this work. In this work, by making full use of the nitrogen activation ability of WO3-x with defective sites, small size WO3-x photocatalyst with high dispersibility was constructed, while the growth of WO3-x was restricted by using a high specific surface area mesoporous SBA-15 molecular sieve with the regular pore structure as a template. The morphology of pure SBA-15 and WO3-x/SBA-15 was characterized byscanning electron microscopy (SEM). Compared with pure SBA-15, some small particles can be found in the WO3-x/SBA-15 material, which means that WO3-x grows into small particles under the limitation of SBA-15, which is conducive to the exposure of catalytically active sites. To elucidate the chemical nature of the material, the X-ray diffraction (XRD) analysis was conducted. The observed diffraction pattern inWO3-xis in good agreement with that of the JCPDS file no.71-2450. Compared with WO3-x, no new peaks appeared in WO3-x/SBA-15.It can be concluded that WO3-x/SBA-15 was synthesized successfully. In order to provide more active sites, the mass content of WO3-x was optimized. Then the photocatalytic nitrogen reduction performances of above samples were performed with methanol as a hole scavenger. The results show that the overall ammonia production performance of WO3-x/SBA-15 is improved than pure bulk WO3-x. The above results prove that making full use of active sites is also a means to improve overall catalytic activity.This work provides material basis for the design of high-efficiency photocatalytic nitrogen reduction catalysts.

Keywords: ammonia, photocatalytic, nitrogen reduction, WO3-x, high dispersibility

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Authors: Meet Patel, Darshan Patel, Nilay Shah

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Excess growth of wind-based renewable energy sources is required to identify the optimal location and damping capacity of doubly fed induction-generator-based (DFIG) wind farms while it penetrates into the transmission network. In this analysis, various ratings of DFIG wind farms are penetrated into the Single Machine Infinite Bus (SMIB ) at a different distance of the transmission line. On the basis of detailed examinations, a prime position is evaluated to maximize the stability of overall systems. A damping controller is designed at an optimum location to mitigate the small oscillations. The proposed model was validated using eigenvalue analysis, calculation of the participation factor, and time-domain simulation.

Keywords: DFIG, small signal stability, eigenvalues, time domain simulation

Procedia PDF Downloads 104

Authors: Chowduru Ramachandra Sharma, Shatunjay Rawat

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A false positive state is when the IDS/IPS identifies an activity as an attack, but the activity is acceptable behavior in the system. False positives in a Network Intrusion Detection System ( NIDS ) is an issue because they desensitize the administrator. It wastes computational power and valuable resources when rules are not tuned properly, which is the main issue with anomaly NIDS. Furthermore, most false positives reduction techniques are not performed during the real-time of attempted intrusions; instead, they have applied afterward on collected traffic data and generate alerts. Of course, false positives detection in ‘offline mode’ is tremendously valuable. Nevertheless, there is room for improvement here; automated techniques still need to reduce False Positives in real-time. This paper uses the Snort signature detection model to redirect the alerted attacks to Honeypots and verify attacks.

Keywords: honeypot, TPOT, snort, NIDS, honeybird, iptables, netfilter, redirection, attack detection, docker, snare, tanner

Procedia PDF Downloads 148

Authors: Guorong Sui, Xingwei Jia, Fei Tong, Xiumin Gao

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Camera calibration is a fundamental issue of high precision noncontact measurement. And it is necessary to analyze and study the reliability and application range of its linear model which is often used in the camera calibration. According to the imaging features of monocular cameras, a camera model which is based on the image pixel coordinates and three dimensional space coordinates is built. Using our own customized template, the image pixel coordinate is obtained by the subpixel corner detection method. Without considering the aberration of the optical system, the feature extraction and linearity analysis of the line segment in the template are performed. Moreover, the experiment is repeated 11 times by constantly varying the measuring distance. At last, the linearity of the camera is achieved by fitting 11 groups of data. The camera model measurement results show that the relative error does not exceed 1%, and the repeated measurement error is not more than 0.1 mm magnitude. Meanwhile, it is found that the model has some measurement differences in the different region and object distance. The experiment results show this linear model is simple and practical, and have good linearity within a certain object distance. These experiment results provide a powerful basis for establishment of the linear model of camera. These works will have potential value to the actual engineering measurement.

Keywords: camera linear model, geometric imaging relationship, image pixel coordinates, three dimensional space coordinates, sub-pixel corner detection

Procedia PDF Downloads 271

Authors: Ofosuhene O. Apenteng, Noor Azina Ismail

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Over the last several years, concern has developed over how to minimize the spread of HIV/AIDS epidemic in many countries. AIDS epidemic has tremendously stimulated the development of mathematical models of infectious diseases. The transmission dynamics of HIV infection that eventually developed AIDS has taken a pivotal role of much on building mathematical models. From the initial HIV and AIDS models introduced in the 80s, various improvements have been taken into account as how to model HIV/AIDS frameworks. In this paper, we present the impact of migration on the spread of HIV/AIDS. Epidemic model is considered by a system of nonlinear differential equations to supplement the statistical method approach. The model is calibrated using HIV incidence data from Malaysia between 1986 and 2011. Bayesian inference based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to validate the model by fitting it to the data and to estimate the unknown parameters for the model. The results suggest that the migrants stay for a long time contributes to the spread of HIV. The model also indicates that susceptible individual becomes infected and moved to HIV compartment at a rate that is more significant than the removal rate from HIV compartment to AIDS compartment. The disease-free steady state is unstable since the basic reproduction number is 1.627309. This is a big concern and not a good indicator from the public heath point of view since the aim is to stabilize the epidemic at the disease equilibrium.

Keywords: epidemic model, HIV, MCMC, parameter estimation

Procedia PDF Downloads 592

Authors: Naragain Phumchusri, Kittitach Pongpairoj

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Overbooking is a very useful revenue management technique that could help reduce costs caused by either undersales or oversales. In this paper, we propose an overbooking model for two types of cars that can minimize the total cost for car rental service. With two types of cars, there is an upgrade possibility for lower type to upper type. This makes the model more complex than one type of cars scenario. We have found that convexity can be proved in this case. Sensitivity analysis of the parameters is conducted to observe the effects of relevant parameters on the optimal solution. Model simplification is proposed using multiple linear regression analysis, which can help estimate the optimal overbooking level using appropriate independent variables. The results show that the overbooking level from multiple linear regression model is relatively close to the optimal solution (with the adjusted R-squared value of at least 72.8%). To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, the total cost was compared with the case where the decision maker uses a naïve method for the overbooking level. It was found that the total cost from optimal solution is only 0.5 to 1 percent (on average) lower than the cost from regression model, while it is approximately 67% lower than the cost obtained by the naïve method. It indicates that our proposed simplification method using regression analysis can effectively perform in estimating the overbooking level.

Keywords: overbooking, car rental industry, revenue management, stochastic model

Procedia PDF Downloads 163

Authors: Jale Çatak, Bayram Yılmaz, Mustafa Ozilgen

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The second law muscle work efficiency is obtained by multiplying the metabolic and mechanical work efficiencies. Thermodynamic analyses are carried out with 19 sets of arms and legs exercise data which were obtained from the healthy young people. These data are used to simulate the changes occurring during aging. The muscle work efficiency decreases with aging as a result of the reduction of the metabolic energy generation in the mitochondria. The reduction of the mitochondrial energy efficiency makes it difficult to carry out the maintenance of the muscle tissue, which in turn causes a decline of the muscle work efficiency. When the muscle attempts to produce more work, entropy generation and exergy destruction increase. Increasing exergy destruction may be regarded as the result of the deterioration of the muscles. When the exergetic efficiency is 0.42, exergy destruction becomes 1.49 folds of the work performance. This proportionality becomes 2.50 and 5.21 folds when the exergetic efficiency decreases to 0.30 and 0.17 respectively.

Keywords: aging mitochondria, entropy generation, exergy destruction, muscle work performance, second law efficiency

Procedia PDF Downloads 421

Authors: W. Hasan, H. Farhat, A. Alhilo, L. Tamimi

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Oil in water (O/W) emulsions are utilized extensively for cooling and lubricating cutting tools during parts machining. A robust Lattice Boltzmann (LBM) thermal-surfactants model, which provides a useful platform for exploring complex emulsions’ characteristics under variety of flow conditions, is used here for the study of the fluid behavior during conventional tools cooling. The transient thermal capabilities of the model are employed for simulating the effects of the flow conditions of O/W emulsions on the cooling of cutting tools. The model results show that the temperature outcome is slightly affected by reversing the direction of upper plate (workpiece). On the other hand, an important increase in effective viscosity is seen which supports better lubrication during the work.

Keywords: hybrid lattice Boltzmann method, Gunstensen model, thermal, surfactant-covered droplet, Marangoni stress

Procedia PDF Downloads 297

Authors: A. M. Nasr, W. R. Azzam, K. E. Ebeed

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For bored piles, careful cleaning must be used to reduce the amount of material trapped in the drilled hole; otherwise, the debris' presence might cause the soft toe effect, which would affect the axial resistance. There isn't much comprehensive research on bored piles with debris. In order to investigate the behavior of a single pile, a pile composite foundation, a two pile group, a three pile group and a four pile group investigation conducts, forty-eight numerical tests in which the debris is simulated using foam rubber.1m pile diameter and 10m length with spacing 3D and depth of foundation 1m used in this study. It is found that the existence of debris causes a reduction of bearing capacity by 64.58% and 33.23% for single pile and pile composite foundation, respectively, 23.27% and 24.24% for the number of defective piles / total number of pile =1/2 and 1 respectively for two group pile, 10.23%, 19.42% and 28.47% for the number of defective piles / total number of pile =1/3,2/3 and 1 respectively for three group pile and, this reduction increase with the increase in a number of defective piles / a total number of piles and 7.1%, 13.32%,19.02% and 26.36 for the number of defective piles / total number of pile =1/4,2/4,3/4 and 1 respectively for four group pile and decreases with an increase of number of pile duo to interaction effect.

Keywords: debris, Foundation, defective, interaction, board pile

Procedia PDF Downloads 89

Authors: A. Ikhlef

Abstract:

Image noise in computed tomography, is mainly caused by the statistical noise, system noise reconstruction algorithm filters. Since last few years, low dose x-ray imaging became more and more desired and looked as a technical differentiating technology among CT manufacturers. In order to achieve this goal, several technologies and techniques are being investigated, including both hardware (integrated electronics and photon counting) and software (artificial intelligence and machine learning) based solutions. From a hardware point of view, electronic noise could indeed be a potential driver for low and ultra-low dose imaging. We demonstrated that the reduction or elimination of this term could lead to a reduction of dose without affecting image quality. Also, in this study, we will show that we can achieve this goal using conventional electronics (low cost and affordable technology), designed carefully and optimized for maximum detective quantum efficiency. We have conducted the tests using large imaging objects such as 30 cm water and 43 cm polyethylene phantoms. We compared the image quality with conventional imaging protocols with radiation as low as 10 mAs (<< 1 mGy). Clinical validation of such results has been performed as well.

Keywords: computed tomography, electronic noise, scintillation detector, x-ray detector

Procedia PDF Downloads 115

Authors: Mohammadreza Mohebbi, Masoumeh Sanagou

Abstract:

The ability to predict clinical outcomes is of great importance to physicians and clinicians. A number of different methods have been used in an effort to accurately predict these outcomes. These methods include the development of scoring systems based on multivariate statistical modelling, and models involving the use of classification and regression trees. The process usually consists of two consecutive phases, namely model development and external validation. The model development phase consists of building a multivariate model and evaluating its predictive performance by examining calibration and discrimination, and internal validation. External validation tests the predictive performance of a model by assessing its calibration and discrimination in different but plausibly related patients. A motivate example focuses on prediction modeling using a sample of patients undergone coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) has been used for illustrative purpose and a set of primary considerations for evaluating prediction model studies using specific quality indicators as criteria to help stakeholders evaluate the quality of a prediction model study has been proposed.

Keywords: clinical prediction models, clinical decision rule, prognosis, external validation, model calibration, biostatistics

Procedia PDF Downloads 289

Authors: Mohammad Reza Dahmardeh Ghaleno, Mohammad Nohtani, Saeedeh Khaledi

Abstract:

Hydrological models are applied to simulation and prediction floods in watersheds. WetSpa is a distributed, continuous and physically model with daily or hourly time step that explains of precipitation, runoff and evapotranspiration processes for both simple and complex contexts. This model uses a modified rational method for runoff calculation. In this model, runoff is routed along the flow path using Diffusion-Wave Equation which depend on the slope, velocity and flow route characteristics. Garmabrood watershed located in Mazandaran province in Iran and passing over coordinates 53° 10´ 55" to 53° 38´ 20" E and 36° 06´ 45" to 36° 25´ 30"N. The area of the catchment is about 1133 km2 and elevations in the catchment range from 213 to 3136 m at the outlet, with average slope of 25.77 %. Results of the simulations show a good agreement between calculated and measured hydrographs at the outlet of the basin. Drawing upon Nash-Sutcliffe Model Efficiency Coefficient for calibration periodic model estimated daily hydrographs and maximum flow rate with an accuracy up to 61% and 83.17 % respectively.

Keywords: watershed simulation, WetSpa, runoff, flood prediction

Procedia PDF Downloads 331