Search results for: Hungarian average scores
4873 Analysis of Natural Convection within a Hexagonal Enclosure Full with Nanofluid (Water-Cu) Under Effect of the Position of the Inner Obstacle
Authors: Lakhdar Rahmani, Benhanifia Kada, Brahim Mebarki
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The present paper aims to investigate the natural convection of nanofluid (water-cu) inside a hexagonal enclosure shape embedded with a square obstacle in the presence of hot and cold side walls. The governing equations were solved in a non-uniform unstructured grid by employing the Galerkin finite element method using the software COMSOL Multiphysics. The objective of this study is to analyze the influence of Rayleigh number (103 < Ra < 105), the position of the obstacle, which is located in three different positions (center, bottom, and top side ), and the effect of Nanoparticles volume concentration (0 < Ø < 0.2) on the thermal behavior inside the enclosure, The results are reported as contours of isotherms, streamlines, and average Nusselt numbers. The obtained results illustrate that the increase in the Rayleigh number (Ra) and the Nanoparticles concentration ( Ø ) leads to an increase in the Nusselt number (Nu average ) that signifies the rate of heat transfer in the studied enclosure, in addition to the best performance observed with the position of obstacle that is located at the middle of the enclosure, where has a high effect in improving the heat transfer along the enclosure comparatively with the rest different positions.Keywords: natural convection, nanofluid (water-Cu), hexagonal enclosure, Nusselt numbers, Rayleigh number
Procedia PDF Downloads 904872 Bartlett Factor Scores in Multiple Linear Regression Equation as a Tool for Estimating Economic Traits in Broilers
Authors: Oluwatosin M. A. Jesuyon
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In order to propose a simpler tool that eliminates the age-long problems associated with the traditional index method for selection of multiple traits in broilers, the Barttlet factor regression equation is being proposed as an alternative selection tool. 100 day-old chicks each of Arbor Acres (AA) and Annak (AN) broiler strains were obtained from two rival hatcheries in Ibadan Nigeria. These were raised in deep litter system in a 56-day feeding trial at the University of Ibadan Teaching and Research Farm, located in South-west Tropical Nigeria. The body weight and body dimensions were measured and recorded during the trial period. Eight (8) zoometric measurements namely live weight (g), abdominal circumference, abdominal length, breast width, leg length, height, wing length and thigh circumference (all in cm) were recorded randomly from 20 birds within strain, at a fixed time on the first day of the new week respectively with a 5-kg capacity Camry scale. These records were analyzed and compared using completely randomized design (CRD) of SPSS analytical software, with the means procedure, Factor Scores (FS) in stepwise Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) procedure for initial live weight equations. Bartlett Factor Score (BFS) analysis extracted 2 factors for each strain, termed Body-length and Thigh-meatiness Factors for AA, and; Breast Size and Height Factors for AN. These derived orthogonal factors assisted in deducing and comparing trait-combinations that best describe body conformation and Meatiness in experimental broilers. BFS procedure yielded different body conformational traits for the two strains, thus indicating the different economic traits and advantages of strains. These factors could be useful as selection criteria for improving desired economic traits. The final Bartlett Factor Regression equations for prediction of body weight were highly significant with P < 0.0001, R2 of 0.92 and above, VIF of 1.00, and DW of 1.90 and 1.47 for Arbor Acres and Annak respectively. These FSR equations could be used as a simple and potent tool for selection during poultry flock improvement, it could also be used to estimate selection index of flocks in order to discriminate between strains, and evaluate consumer preference traits in broilers.Keywords: alternative selection tool, Bartlet factor regression model, consumer preference trait, linear and body measurements, live body weight
Procedia PDF Downloads 2034871 Prediction of Formation Pressure Using Artificial Intelligence Techniques
Authors: Abdulmalek Ahmed
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Formation pressure is the main function that affects drilling operation economically and efficiently. Knowing the pore pressure and the parameters that affect it will help to reduce the cost of drilling process. Many empirical models reported in the literature were used to calculate the formation pressure based on different parameters. Some of these models used only drilling parameters to estimate pore pressure. Other models predicted the formation pressure based on log data. All of these models required different trends such as normal or abnormal to predict the pore pressure. Few researchers applied artificial intelligence (AI) techniques to predict the formation pressure by only one method or a maximum of two methods of AI. The objective of this research is to predict the pore pressure based on both drilling parameters and log data namely; weight on bit, rotary speed, rate of penetration, mud weight, bulk density, porosity and delta sonic time. A real field data is used to predict the formation pressure using five different artificial intelligence (AI) methods such as; artificial neural networks (ANN), radial basis function (RBF), fuzzy logic (FL), support vector machine (SVM) and functional networks (FN). All AI tools were compared with different empirical models. AI methods estimated the formation pressure by a high accuracy (high correlation coefficient and low average absolute percentage error) and outperformed all previous. The advantage of the new technique is its simplicity, which represented from its estimation of pore pressure without the need of different trends as compared to other models which require a two different trend (normal or abnormal pressure). Moreover, by comparing the AI tools with each other, the results indicate that SVM has the advantage of pore pressure prediction by its fast processing speed and high performance (a high correlation coefficient of 0.997 and a low average absolute percentage error of 0.14%). In the end, a new empirical correlation for formation pressure was developed using ANN method that can estimate pore pressure with a high precision (correlation coefficient of 0.998 and average absolute percentage error of 0.17%).Keywords: Artificial Intelligence (AI), Formation pressure, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Fuzzy Logic (FL), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Functional Networks (FN), Radial Basis Function (RBF)
Procedia PDF Downloads 1494870 Predicting Football Player Performance: Integrating Data Visualization and Machine Learning
Authors: Saahith M. S., Sivakami R.
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In the realm of football analytics, particularly focusing on predicting football player performance, the ability to forecast player success accurately is of paramount importance for teams, managers, and fans. This study introduces an elaborate examination of predicting football player performance through the integration of data visualization methods and machine learning algorithms. The research entails the compilation of an extensive dataset comprising player attributes, conducting data preprocessing, feature selection, model selection, and model training to construct predictive models. The analysis within this study will involve delving into feature significance using methodologies like Select Best and Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) to pinpoint pertinent attributes for predicting player performance. Various machine learning algorithms, including Random Forest, Decision Tree, Linear Regression, Support Vector Regression (SVR), and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), will be explored to develop predictive models. The evaluation of each model's performance utilizing metrics such as Mean Squared Error (MSE) and R-squared will be executed to gauge their efficacy in predicting player performance. Furthermore, this investigation will encompass a top player analysis to recognize the top-performing players based on the anticipated overall performance scores. Nationality analysis will entail scrutinizing the player distribution based on nationality and investigating potential correlations between nationality and player performance. Positional analysis will concentrate on examining the player distribution across various positions and assessing the average performance of players in each position. Age analysis will evaluate the influence of age on player performance and identify any discernible trends or patterns associated with player age groups. The primary objective is to predict a football player's overall performance accurately based on their individual attributes, leveraging data-driven insights to enrich the comprehension of player success on the field. By amalgamating data visualization and machine learning methodologies, the aim is to furnish valuable tools for teams, managers, and fans to effectively analyze and forecast player performance. This research contributes to the progression of sports analytics by showcasing the potential of machine learning in predicting football player performance and offering actionable insights for diverse stakeholders in the football industry.Keywords: football analytics, player performance prediction, data visualization, machine learning algorithms, random forest, decision tree, linear regression, support vector regression, artificial neural networks, model evaluation, top player analysis, nationality analysis, positional analysis
Procedia PDF Downloads 384869 A New Method Separating Relevant Features from Irrelevant Ones Using Fuzzy and OWA Operator Techniques
Authors: Imed Feki, Faouzi Msahli
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Selection of relevant parameters from a high dimensional process operation setting space is a problem frequently encountered in industrial process modelling. This paper presents a method for selecting the most relevant fabric physical parameters for each sensory quality feature. The proposed relevancy criterion has been developed using two approaches. The first utilizes a fuzzy sensitivity criterion by exploiting from experimental data the relationship between physical parameters and all the sensory quality features for each evaluator. Next an OWA aggregation procedure is applied to aggregate the ranking lists provided by different evaluators. In the second approach, another panel of experts provides their ranking lists of physical features according to their professional knowledge. Also by applying OWA and a fuzzy aggregation model, the data sensitivity-based ranking list and the knowledge-based ranking list are combined using our proposed percolation technique, to determine the final ranking list. The key issue of the proposed percolation technique is to filter automatically and objectively the relevant features by creating a gap between scores of relevant and irrelevant parameters. It permits to automatically generate threshold that can effectively reduce human subjectivity and arbitrariness when manually choosing thresholds. For a specific sensory descriptor, the threshold is defined systematically by iteratively aggregating (n times) the ranking lists generated by OWA and fuzzy models, according to a specific algorithm. Having applied the percolation technique on a real example, of a well known finished textile product especially the stonewashed denims, usually considered as the most important quality criteria in jeans’ evaluation, we separate the relevant physical features from irrelevant ones for each sensory descriptor. The originality and performance of the proposed relevant feature selection method can be shown by the variability in the number of physical features in the set of selected relevant parameters. Instead of selecting identical numbers of features with a predefined threshold, the proposed method can be adapted to the specific natures of the complex relations between sensory descriptors and physical features, in order to propose lists of relevant features of different sizes for different descriptors. In order to obtain more reliable results for selection of relevant physical features, the percolation technique has been applied for combining the fuzzy global relevancy and OWA global relevancy criteria in order to clearly distinguish scores of the relevant physical features from those of irrelevant ones.Keywords: data sensitivity, feature selection, fuzzy logic, OWA operators, percolation technique
Procedia PDF Downloads 6054868 A Road Map of Success for Differently Abled Adolescent Girls Residing in Pune, Maharashtra, India
Authors: Varsha Tol, Laila Garda, Neelam Bhardwaj, Malata Usar
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In India, differently- abled girls suffer from a “dual stigma” of being female and physically challenged. The general consensus is that they are incapable of standing on their own two feet. It was observed that these girls do not have access to educational programs as most hostels do not keep them after the tenth grade. They are forced to return to a life of poverty and are often considered a liability by their families. Higher education is completely ignored. Parents focus on finding a husband and passing on their ‘burden’ to someone else. An innovative, intervention for differently-abled adolescent girls with the express purpose of mainstreaming them into society was started by Helplife. The objective was to enrich the lives of these differently abled adolescent girls through precise research, focused intervention and professionalism. This programme addresses physical, mental and social rehabilitation of the girls who come from impoverished backgrounds. These adolescents are reached by word of mouth, snowball technique and through the network of the NGO. Applications are invited from potential candidates which are scrutinized by a panel of experts. Selection criteria include her disability, socio-economic status, and desire and drive to make a difference in her own life. The six main areas of intervention are accommodation, education, health, professional courses, counseling and recreational activities. Each girl on an average resides in Helplife for a period of 2-3 years. Analysis of qualitative data collected at various time points indicates holistic development of character. A quality of life questionnaire showed a significant improvement in scores at three different time points in 75% of the current population under intervention i.e. 19 girls. Till date, 25 girls have successfully passed out from the intervention program completing their graduation/post-graduation. Currently, we have 19 differently abled girls housed in three flats in Pune district of Maharashtra. Out of which 14 girls are pursuing their graduation or post-graduation. Six of the girls are working in jobs in various sectors. In conclusion it may be noted with adequate support and guidance the sky is the limit. This journey of 12 years has been a learning for us with ups and downs modifying the intervention at every step. Helplife has a belief of impacting positively, individual lives of differently abled girls in order to empower them in a holistic manner. The intervention has a positive impact on differently abled girls. They serve as role models to other differently abled girls indicating that this is a road map to success by getting empowered to live with full potential and get integrated in the society in a dignified way.Keywords: differently-abled, dual-stigma, empowerment, youth
Procedia PDF Downloads 1724867 Climate Variability on Hydro-Energy Potential: An MCDM and Neural Network Approach
Authors: Apu Kumar Saha, Mrinmoy Majumder
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The increase in the concentration of Green House gases all over the World has induced global warming phenomena whereby the average temperature of the world has aggravated to impact the pattern of climate in different regions. The frequency of extreme event has increased, early onset of season and change in an average amount of rainfall all are engrossing the conclusion that normal pattern of climate is changing. Sophisticated and complex models are prepared to estimate the future situation of the climate in different zones of the Earth. As hydro-energy is directly related to climatic parameters like rainfall and evaporation such energy resources will have to sustain the onset of the climatic abnormalities. The present investigation has tried to assess the impact of climatic abnormalities upon hydropower potential of different regions of the World. In this regard multi-criteria, decision making, and the neural network is used to predict the impact of the change cognitively by an index. The results from the study show that hydro-energy potential of Asian region is mostly vulnerable with respect to other regions of the world. The model results also encourage further application of the index to analyze the impact of climate change on the potential of hydro-energy.Keywords: hydro-energy potential, neural networks, multi criteria decision analysis, environmental and ecological engineering
Procedia PDF Downloads 5494866 Pregnancy and Birth Experience, Opinions regarding the Delivery Method of the Patients' Vaginal Deliveries
Authors: Umran Erciyes, Filiz Okumus
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The purpose of this study was the determination of factors which impact the pregnancy, birth experience and the opinions regarding the delivery type of the puerperants, after vaginal birth. This descriptive study includes 349 patients who gave births with normal birth in one of the hospital in İstanbul in May- November 2014. After birth, we interview with these women face to face. The descriptive information form and Perception of Birth Scale were used as data collection tool. SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences) was used for statistical analysis. The average age of patients was 27.13, and the average score was 76.93±20.22. The patients are primary school graduate, and they do not have a job. They expressed an income outcome equality. More than half of women did not get educated before birth. Among educated patients, few women got educated overcoming the pain during labor process. As the time spent in the hospital for the birth increases, the birth perception of mothers is affected negatively. %86.8 of participants gave assisted delivery. Spontaneous vaginal birth has positive effects on birth perception. Establishing a vascular access, induction of labor performing enema, restriction of orally intake and movement, fundal pressure, episiotomy, nor to perform skin to skin contact with the baby after birth has adverse effects on the birth perceptions.Keywords: antenatal care, birth experience, perception of birth, vaginal birth
Procedia PDF Downloads 4374865 Distributional and Developmental Analysis of PM2.5 in Beijing, China
Authors: Alexander K. Guo
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PM2.5 poses a large threat to people’s health and the environment and is an issue of large concern in Beijing, brought to the attention of the government by the media. In addition, both the United States Embassy in Beijing and the government of China have increased monitoring of PM2.5 in recent years, and have made real-time data available to the public. This report utilizes hourly historical data (2008-2016) from the U.S. Embassy in Beijing for the first time. The first objective was to attempt to fit probability distributions to the data to better predict a number of days exceeding the standard, and the second was to uncover any yearly, seasonal, monthly, daily, and hourly patterns and trends that may arise to better understand of air control policy. In these data, 66,650 hours and 2687 days provided valid data. Lognormal, gamma, and Weibull distributions were fit to the data through an estimation of parameters. The Chi-squared test was employed to compare the actual data with the fitted distributions. The data were used to uncover trends, patterns, and improvements in PM2.5 concentration over the period of time with valid data in addition to specific periods of time that received large amounts of media attention, analyzed to gain a better understanding of causes of air pollution. The data show a clear indication that Beijing’s air quality is unhealthy, with an average of 94.07µg/m3 across all 66,650 hours with valid data. It was found that no distribution fit the entire dataset of all 2687 days well, but each of the three above distribution types was optimal in at least one of the yearly data sets, with the lognormal distribution found to fit recent years better. An improvement in air quality beginning in 2014 was discovered, with the first five months of 2016 reporting an average PM2.5 concentration that is 23.8% lower than the average of the same period in all years, perhaps the result of various new pollution-control policies. It was also found that the winter and fall months contained more days in both good and extremely polluted categories, leading to a higher average but a comparable median in these months. Additionally, the evening hours, especially in the winter, reported much higher PM2.5 concentrations than the afternoon hours, possibly due to the prohibition of trucks in the city in the daytime and the increased use of coal for heating in the colder months when residents are home in the evening. Lastly, through analysis of special intervals that attracted media attention for either unnaturally good or bad air quality, the government’s temporary pollution control measures, such as more intensive road-space rationing and factory closures, are shown to be effective. In summary, air quality in Beijing is improving steadily and do follow standard probability distributions to an extent, but still needs improvement. Analysis will be updated when new data become available.Keywords: Beijing, distribution, patterns, pm2.5, trends
Procedia PDF Downloads 2454864 Effects of Some Characteristics of Gynecological Cancer Diagnosis and Treatment on Women's Sexual Life Quality
Authors: Buse Bahitli, Samiye Mete
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The aim of the study was to evaluate the quality of sexual life of women with diagnosed gynecological cancer and receive treatment. The study was a descriptive and cross-sectional type, and it was carried out with 276 women. Information Form and Sexual Quality of Life Scale-Female (SQOL) form was used in the study. The data was evaluated using Mann-Whitney U and Kruskal-Wallis test. In the study, Sexual Quality of Life Scale-Female average score was 68.83 ± 21.17. The %43.1 of women was endometrial cancer, %30.8 was cervical cancer, %24.6 was ovarian cancer, and %1.4 was vulvar cancer. The average time to diagnosis of patients is 41.80 ± 47.64 months. There was no significant difference mean SQOL according to individual/sociodemographic characteristics like age, education. Gynecological cancer-related characteristics like gynaecological cancer type, treatment type, surgery type were found not to affect the mean score of SQOL. However, it was found that the difference was due to the higher SQOL score in the group with a diagnosis time of 25 months and over (X²KW= 6.356, p= 0.046). The reason of significant difference means SQOL according to diagnosis over time might be that women adapted to cancer diagnosis. While women with gynaecologic cancer are evaluating their sexual lives, it is necessary to evaluate them with good evaluation tools.Keywords: gynecological cancers, sexuality, quality of sexual life, SQOL
Procedia PDF Downloads 3804863 Hate Speech Detection Using Deep Learning and Machine Learning Models
Authors: Nabil Shawkat, Jamil Saquer
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Social media has accelerated our ability to engage with others and eliminated many communication barriers. On the other hand, the widespread use of social media resulted in an increase in online hate speech. This has drastic impacts on vulnerable individuals and societies. Therefore, it is critical to detect hate speech to prevent innocent users and vulnerable communities from becoming victims of hate speech. We investigate the performance of different deep learning and machine learning algorithms on three different datasets. Our results show that the BERT model gives the best performance among all the models by achieving an F1-score of 90.6% on one of the datasets and F1-scores of 89.7% and 88.2% on the other two datasets.Keywords: hate speech, machine learning, deep learning, abusive words, social media, text classification
Procedia PDF Downloads 1364862 English Language Performance and Emotional Intelligence of Senior High School Students of Pit-Laboratory High School
Authors: Sonia Arradaza-Pajaron
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English as a second language is widely spoken in the Philippines. In fact, it is used as a medium of instruction in school. However, Filipino students, in general, are still not proficient in the use of the language. Since it plays a very crucial role in the learning and comprehension of some subjects in the school where important key concepts and in English, it is imperative to look into other factors that may affect such concern. This study may post an answer to the said concern because it aimed to investigate the association between a psychological construct, known as emotional intelligence, and the English language performance of the 55 senior high school students. The study utilized a descriptive correlational method to determine the significant relationship of variables with preliminary data, like GPA in English subject as baseline information of their performance. Results revealed that the respondents had an average GPA in the English subject; however, improving from their first-year high school level to the fourth year. Their English performance resulted to an above average level with a notable higher performance in the speaking test than in the written. Further, a strong correlation between English performance and emotional intelligence was manifested. Based on the findings, it can be concluded that students with higher emotional intelligence their English language performance is expected to be the same. It can be said further that when students’ emotional intelligence (EI components) is facilitated well through various classroom activities, a better English performance would just be spontaneous among them.Keywords: English language performance, emotional intelligence, EI components, emotional literacy, emotional quotient competence, emotional quotient outcomes, values and beliefs
Procedia PDF Downloads 4494861 Structural Molecular Dynamics Modelling of FH2 Domain of Formin DAAM
Authors: Rauan Sakenov, Peter Bukovics, Peter Gaszler, Veronika Tokacs-Kollar, Beata Bugyi
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FH2 (formin homology-2) domains of several proteins, collectively known as formins, including DAAM, DAAM1 and mDia1, promote G-actin nucleation and elongation. FH2 domains of these formins exist as oligomers. Chain dimerization by ring structure formation serves as a structural basis for actin polymerization function of FH2 domain. Proper single chain configuration and specific interactions between its various regions are necessary for individual chains to form a dimer functional in G-actin nucleation and elongation. FH1 and WH2 domain-containing formins were shown to behave as intrinsically disordered proteins. Thus, the aim of this research was to study structural dynamics of FH2 domain of DAAM. To investigate structural features of FH2 domain of DAAM, molecular dynamics simulation of chain A of FH2 domain of DAAM solvated in water box in 50 mM NaCl was conducted at temperatures from 293.15 to 353.15K, with VMD 1.9.2, NAMD 2.14 and Amber Tools 21 using 2z6e and 1v9d PDB structures of DAAM was obtained on I-TASSER webserver. Calcium and ATP bound G-actin 3hbt PDB structure was used as a reference protein with well-described structural dynamics of denaturation. Topology and parameter information of CHARMM 2012 additive all-atom force fields for proteins, carbohydrate derivatives, water and ions were used in NAMD 2.14 and ff19SB force field for proteins in Amber Tools 21. The systems were energy minimized for the first 1000 steps, equilibrated and produced in NPT ensemble for 1ns using stochastic Langevin dynamics and the particle mesh Ewald method. Our root-mean square deviation (RMSD) analysis of molecular dynamics of chain A of FH2 domains of DAAM revealed similar insignificant changes of total molecular average RMSD values of FH2 domain of these formins at temperatures from 293.15 to 353.15K. In contrast, total molecular average RMSD values of G-actin showed considerable increase at 328K, which corresponds to the denaturation of G-actin molecule at this temperature and its transition from native, ordered, to denatured, disordered, state which is well-described in the literature. RMSD values of lasso and tail regions of chain A of FH2 domain of DAAM exhibited higher than total molecular average RMSD at temperatures from 293.15 to 353.15K. These regions are functional in intra- and interchain interactions and contain highly conserved tryptophan residues of lasso region, highly conserved GNYMN sequence of post region and amino acids of the shell of hydrophobic pocket of the salt bridge between Arg171 and Asp321, which are important for structural stability and ordered state of FH2 domain of DAAM and its functions in FH2 domain dimerization. In conclusion, higher than total molecular average RMSD values of lasso and post regions of chain A of FH2 domain of DAAM may explain disordered state of FH2 domain of DAAM at temperatures from 293.15 to 353.15K. Finally, absence of marked transition, in terms of significant changes in average molecular RMSD values between native and denatured states of FH2 domain of DAAM at temperatures from 293.15 to 353.15K, can make it possible to attribute these formins to the group of intrinsically disordered proteins rather than to the group of intrinsically ordered proteins such as G-actin.Keywords: FH2 domain, DAAM, formins, molecular modelling, computational biophysics
Procedia PDF Downloads 1364860 The Development of Online-Class Scheduling Management System Conducted by the Case Study of Department of Social Science: Faculty of Humanities and Social Sciences Suan Sunandha Rajabhat University
Authors: Wipada Chaiwchan, Patcharee Klinhom
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This research is aimed to develop the online-class scheduling management system and improve as a complex problem solution, this must take into consideration in various conditions and factors. In addition to the number of courses, the number of students and a timetable to study, the physical characteristics of each class room and regulations used in the class scheduling must also be taken into consideration. This system is developed to assist management in the class scheduling for convenience and efficiency. It can provide several instructors to schedule simultaneously. Both lecturers and students can check and publish a timetable and other documents associated with the system online immediately. It is developed in a web-based application. PHP is used as a developing tool. The database management system was MySQL. The tool that is used for efficiency testing of the system is questionnaire. The system was evaluated by using a Black-Box testing. The sample was composed of 2 groups: 5 experts and 100 general users. The average and the standard deviation of results from the experts were 3.50 and 0.67. The average and the standard deviation of results from the general users were 3.54 and 0.54. In summary, the results from the research indicated that the satisfaction of users was in a good level. Therefore, this system could be implemented in an actual workplace and satisfy the users’ requirement effectivelyKeywords: timetable, schedule, management system, online
Procedia PDF Downloads 2374859 Adsorption of Peppermint Essential Oil by Polypropylene Nanofiber
Authors: Duduku Krishnaiah, S. M. Anisuzzaman, Kumaran Govindaraj, Chiam Chel Ken, Zykamilia Kamin
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Pure essential oil is highly demanded in the market since most of the so-called pure essential oils in the market contains alcohol. This is because of the usage of alcohol in separating oil and water mixture. Removal of pure essential oil from water without using any chemical solvent has become a challenging issue. Adsorbents generally have the properties of separating hydrophobic oil from hydrophilic mixture. Polypropylen nanofiber is a thermoplastic polymer which is produced from propylene. It was used as an adsorbent in this study. Based on the research, it was found that the polypropylene nanofiber was able to adsorb peppermint oil from the aqueous solution over a wide range of concentration. Based on scanning electron microscope (SEM), nanofiber has very small nano diameter fiber size in average before the adsorption and larger scaled average diameter of fibers after adsorption which indicates that smaller diameter of nanofiber enhances the adsorption process. The adsorption capacity of peppermint oil increases as the initial concentration of peppermint oil and amount of polypropylene nanofiber used increases. The maximum adsorption capacity of polypropylene nanofiber was found to be 689.5 mg/g at (T= 30°C). Moreover, the adsorption capacity of peppermint oil decreases as the temperature of solution increases. The equilibrium data of polypropylene nanofiber is best represented by Freundlich isotherm with the maximum adsorption capacity of 689.5 mg/g. The adsorption kinetics of polypropylene nanofiber was best represented by pseudo-second order model.Keywords: nanofiber, adsorption, peppermint essential oil, isotherms, adsorption kinetics
Procedia PDF Downloads 1594858 Red-Tide Detection and Prediction Using MODIS Data in the Arabian Gulf of Qatar
Authors: Yasir E. Mohieldeen
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Qatar is one of the most water scarce countries in the World. In 2014, the average per capita rainfall was less than 29 m3/y/ca, while the global average is 6,000 m3/y/ca. However, the per capita water consumption in Qatar is among the highest in the World: more than 500 liters per person per day, whereas the global average is 160 liters per person per day. Since the early 2000s, Qatar has been relying heavily on desalinated water from the Arabian Gulf as the main source of fresh water. In 2009, about 99.9% of the total potable water produced was desalinated. Reliance on desalinated water makes Qatar very vulnerable to water related natural disasters, such as the red-tide phenomenon. Qatar’s strategic water reserve lasts for only 7 days. In case of red-tide outbreak, the country would not be able to desalinate water for days, let alone the months that this disaster would bring about (as it clogs the desalination equipment). The 2008-09 red-tide outbreak, for instance, lasted for more than eight months and forced the closure of desalination plants in the region for weeks. This study aims at identifying favorite conditions for red-tide outbreaks, using satellite data along with in-situ measurements. This identification would allow the prediction of these outbreaks and their hotspots. Prediction and monitoring of outbreaks are crucial to water security in the country, as different measures could be put in place in advance to prevent an outbreak and mitigate its impact if it happened. Red-tide outbreaks are detected using different algorithms for chlorophyll concentration in the Gulf waters. Vegetation indices, such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) were used along with Surface Algae Bloom Index (SABI) to detect known outbreaks. MODIS (or Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) bands are used to calculate these indices. A red-tide outbreaks atlas in the Arabian Gulf is being produced. Prediction of red-tide outbreaks ahead of their occurrences would give critical information on possible water-shortage in the country. Detecting known outbreaks in the past few decades and related parameters (e.g. water salinity, water surface temperature, nutrition, sandstorms, … etc) enables the identification of favorite conditions of red-tide outbreak that are key to the prediction of these outbreaks.Keywords: Arabian Gulf, MODIS, red-tide detection, strategic water reserve, water desalination
Procedia PDF Downloads 1074857 Death Anxiety and Life Expectancy among Older Adults in Iran
Authors: Vahid Rashedi, Banafsheh Ebrahimi, Mahtab Sharif Mohseni, Mohammadali Hosseini
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Introduction: One of the metrics used to evaluate health status is life expectancy. This index alters as people age as a result of several events, illnesses, stress, and anxiety. One of the issues that might develop into a lethal phobia is death anxiety. This study looked at older persons in Tehran, Iran, to see if there was any correlation between life expectancy and fear of dying. Methods: Cluster random sampling was used to select 208 older persons (age 60) who had been sent to adult daycare facilities in Tehran for this correlational descriptive study. A demographic questionnaire, Temper's death anxiety scale, and Snyder's life expectancy scale were used to gather the data. Statistical Package for the Social Sciences softwear version 22 was used to conduct the data analysis. Results: The average age of the senior citizens was 66.60 (6.58) years. With a mean life expectancy of 24.94, it was discovered that the average death anxiety was 12.21. Additionally, Pearson's correlation coefficient demonstrated a bad correlation between fear of dying and life expectancy. Age, residential status, and death fear were the three primary predictors of a decline in life expectancy, according to multiple regression analysis. Conclusion: The findings suggest that there is a link between death fear and a lower life expectancy, which calls for the use of appropriate strategies to increase older individuals' life expectancies as well as the teaching of anxiety coping mechanisms.Keywords: aged, frailty, death, anxiety, life
Procedia PDF Downloads 854856 mHealth-based Diabetes Prevention Program among Mothers with Abdominal Obesity: A Randomized Controlled Trial
Authors: Jia Guo, Qinyuan Huang, Qinyi Zhong, Yanjing Zeng, Yimeng Li, James Wiley, Kin Cheung, Jyu-Lin Chen
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Context: Mothers with abdominal obesity, particularly in China, face challenges in managing their health due to family responsibilities. Existing diabetes prevention programs do not cater specifically to this demographic. Research Aim: To assess the feasibility, acceptability, and efficacy of an mHealth-based diabetes prevention program tailored for Chinese mothers with abdominal obesity in reducing weight-related variables and diabetes risk. Methodology: A randomized controlled trial was conducted in Changsha, China, where the mHealth group received personalized modules and health messages, while the control group received general health education. Data were collected at baseline, 3 months, and 6 months. Findings: The mHealth intervention significantly improved waist circumference, modifiable diabetes risk scores, daily steps, self-efficacy for physical activity, social support for physical activity, and physical health satisfaction compared to the control group. However, no differences were found in BMI and certain other variables. Theoretical Importance: The study demonstrates the feasibility and efficacy of a tailored mHealth intervention for Chinese mothers with abdominal obesity, emphasizing the potential for such programs to improve health outcomes in this population. Data Collection: Data on various variables including weight-related measures, diabetes risk scores, behavioral and psychological factors were collected at baseline, 3 months, and 6 months from participants in the mHealth and control groups. Analysis Procedures: Generalized estimating equations were used to analyze the data collected from the mHealth and control groups at different time points during the study period. Question Addressed: The study addressed the effectiveness of an mHealth-based diabetes prevention program tailored for Chinese mothers with abdominal obesity in improving various health outcomes compared to traditional general health education approaches. Conclusion: The tailored mHealth intervention proved to be feasible and effective in improving weight-related variables, physical activity, and physical health satisfaction among Chinese mothers with abdominal obesity, highlighting its potential for delivering diabetes prevention programs to this population.Keywords: type 2 diabetes, mHealth, obesity, prevention, mothers
Procedia PDF Downloads 574855 The Underestimate of the Annual Maximum Rainfall Depths Due to Coarse Time Resolution Data
Authors: Renato Morbidelli, Carla Saltalippi, Alessia Flammini, Tommaso Picciafuoco, Corrado Corradini
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A considerable part of rainfall data to be used in the hydrological practice is available in aggregated form within constant time intervals. This can produce undesirable effects, like the underestimate of the annual maximum rainfall depth, Hd, associated with a given duration, d, that is the basic quantity in the development of rainfall depth-duration-frequency relationships and in determining if climate change is producing effects on extreme event intensities and frequencies. The errors in the evaluation of Hd from data characterized by a coarse temporal aggregation, ta, and a procedure to reduce the non-homogeneity of the Hd series are here investigated. Our results indicate that: 1) in the worst conditions, for d=ta, the estimation of a single Hd value can be affected by an underestimation error up to 50%, while the average underestimation error for a series with at least 15-20 Hd values, is less than or equal to 16.7%; 2) the underestimation error values follow an exponential probability density function; 3) each very long time series of Hd contains many underestimated values; 4) relationships between the non-dimensional ratio ta/d and the average underestimate of Hd, derived from continuous rainfall data observed in many stations of Central Italy, may overcome this issue; 5) these equations should allow to improve the Hd estimates and the associated depth-duration-frequency curves at least in areas with similar climatic conditions.Keywords: central Italy, extreme events, rainfall data, underestimation errors
Procedia PDF Downloads 1914854 The Relationship Between The Two-spatial World And The Decrease In The Area Of Commercial Properties
Authors: Syedhossein Vakili
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According to the opinion of some experts, the world's two-spatialization means the establishment of a new virtual space and placing this new space next to the physical space. This dualization of space has left various effects, one of which is reducing the need for buildings and making the area of business premises economical through the use of virtual space instead of a part of physical space. In such a way that before the virtual space was known, a commercial or educational institution had to block a large part of its capital to acquire physical spaces and buildings in order to provide physical space and places needed for daily activities, but today, Thanks to the addition of the virtual space to the physical space, it has been possible to carry out its activities more widely in a limited environment with a minimum of physical space and drastically reduce costs. In order to understand the impact of virtual space on the reduction of physical space, the researcher used the official reports of the countries regarding the average area mentioned in the permits for the construction of commercial and educational units in the period from 2014 to 2023 and compared the average capital required for the absolute physical period with The period of two-spatialization of the world in the mentioned ten-year period, while using the analytical and comparative method, has proven that virtual space has greatly reduced the amount of investment of business owners to provide the required place for their activities by reducing the need for physical space. And economically, it has made commercial activities more profitable.Keywords: two spatialization, building area, cyberspace, physical space, virtual place
Procedia PDF Downloads 604853 Microwave Synthesis, Optical Properties and Surface Area Studies of NiO Nanoparticles
Authors: Ayed S. Al-Shihri, Abul Kalam, Abdullah G. Al-Sehemi, Gaohui Du, Tokeer Ahmad, Ahmad Irfan
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We report here the synthesis of nickel oxide (NiO) nanoparticles by microwave-assisted method, using a common precipitating agent followed by calcination in air at 400°C. The effect of the microwave and pH on the crystallite size, morphology, structure, energy band gap and surface area of NiO have been investigated by means of powder X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), transmission electron microscopy (TEM), high resolution transmission electron microscopy (HRTEM), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), ultraviolet visible spectroscopy (UV-vis) and BET surface area studies. X-ray diffraction studies showed the formation of monophasic and highly crystalline cubic NiO. TEM analysis led to decrease the average grain size of NiO nanoparticles from 16.5 nm to 14 nm on increasing the amount of NaOH. FTIR studies also confirm the formation of NiO nanoparticles. It was observed that on increasing the volume of NaOH, the optical band gap energy (2.85 eV to 2.95 eV) and specific surface area (33.1 to 39.8 m2/g) increases, however the average particles size decreases (16.5 nm to 14 nm). This method may be extended to large scale synthesis of other metal oxides nanoparticles and the present study could be used for the potential applications in water treatment and many other fields.Keywords: BET surface area analysis, electron microscopy, optical properties, X-ray techniques
Procedia PDF Downloads 3974852 The Droplet Generation and Flow in the T-Shape Microchannel with the Side Wall Fluctuation
Authors: Yan Pang, Xiang Wang, Zhaomiao Liu
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Droplet microfluidics, in which nanoliter to picoliter droplets acted as individual compartments, are common to a diverse array of applications such as analytical chemistry, tissue engineering, microbiology and drug discovery. The droplet generation in a simplified two dimension T-shape microchannel with the main channel width of 50 μm and the side channel width of 25 μm, is simulated to investigate effects of the forced fluctuation of the side wall on the droplet generation and flow. The periodic fluctuations are applied on a length of the side wall in the main channel of the T-junction with the deformation shape of the double-clamped beam acted by the uniform force, which varies with the flow time and fluctuation periods, forms and positions. The fluctuations under most of the conditions expand the distribution range of the droplet size but have a little effect on the average size, while the shape of the fixed side wall changes the average droplet size chiefly. Droplet sizes show a periodic pattern along the relative time when the fluctuation is forced on the side wall near the T-junction. The droplet emerging frequency is not varied by the fluctuation of the side wall under the same flow rate and geometry conditions. When the fluctuation period is similar with the droplet emerging period, the droplet size shows a nice stability as the no fluctuation case.Keywords: droplet generation, droplet size, flow flied, forced fluctuation
Procedia PDF Downloads 2824851 Performance of an Anaerobic Osmotic Membrane Bioreactor Hybrid System for Wastewater Treatment and Phosphorus Recovery
Authors: Ming-Yeh Lu, Shiao-Shing Chen, Saikat Sinha Ray, Hung-Te Hsu
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The submerged anaerobic osmotic membrane bioreactor (AnOMBR) integrated with periodic microfiltration (MF) extraction for simultaneous phosphorus and clean water recovery from wastewater was evaluated. A laboratory-scale AnOMBR used cellulose triacetate (CTA) membranes with effective membrane area of 130 cm² was fully submerged into a 5 L bioreactor at 30-35 ℃. Active layer was orientated to feed stream for minimizing membrane fouling and scaling. Additionally, a peristaltic pump was used to circulate magnesium sulphate (MgSO₄) solution applied as draw solution (DS). Microfiltration membrane periodically extracted about 1 L solution when the TDS reaches to 5 g/L to recover phosphorus and simultaneously control the salt accumulation in the bioreactor. During experiment progress, the average water flux was around 1.6 LMH. The AnOMBR process showed greater than 95% removal of soluble chemical oxygen demand (sCOD), nearly 100% of total phosphorous whereas only partial of ammonia was removed. On the other hand, the average methane production of 0.22 L/g sCOD was obtained. Subsequently, the overall performance demonstrates that a novel submerged AnOMBR system is potential for simultaneous wastewater treatment and resource recovery from wastewater. Therefore, the new concept of this system can be used to replace for the conventional AnMBR in the future.Keywords: anaerobic treatment, forward osmosis, phosphorus recovery, membrane bioreactor
Procedia PDF Downloads 2364850 Reducing Falls in Memory Care through Implementation of the Stopping Elderly Accidents, Deaths, and Injuries Program
Authors: Cory B. Lord
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Falls among the elderly population has become an area of concern in healthcare today. The negative impacts of falls lead to increased morbidity, mortality, and financial burdens for both patients and healthcare systems. Falls in the United States is reported at an annual rate of 36 million in those aged 65 and older. Each year, one out of four people in this age group will suffer a fall, with 20% of these falls causing injury. The setting for this Doctor of Nursing Practice (DNP) project was a memory care unit in an assisted living community, as these facilities house cognitively impaired older adults. These communities lack fall prevention programs; therefore, the need exists to add to the body of knowledge to positively impact this population. The objective of this project was to reduce fall rates through the implementation of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) STEADI (stopping elderly accidents, deaths, and injuries) program. The DNP project performed was a quality improvement pilot study with a pre and post-test design. This program was implemented in the memory care setting over 12 weeks. The project included an educational session for staff and a fall risk assessment with appropriate resident referrals. The three aims of the DNP project were to reduce fall rates among the elderly aged 65 and older who reside in the memory care unit, increase staff knowledge of STEADI fall prevention measures after an educational session, and assess the willingness of memory care unit staff to adopt an evidence-based a fall prevention program. The Donabedian model was used as a guiding conceptual framework for this quality improvement pilot study. The fall rate data for 12 months before the intervention was evaluated and compared to post-intervention fall rates. The educational session comprised of a pre and post-test to assess staff knowledge of the fall prevention program and the willingness of staff to adopt the fall prevention program. The overarching goal was to reduce falls in the elderly population who live in memory care units. The results of the study showed, on average that the fall rate during the implementation period of STEADI (μ=6.79) was significantly lower when compared to the prior 12 months (μ= 9.50) (p=0.02, α = 0.05). The mean staff knowledge scores improved from pretest (μ=77.74%) to post-test (μ=87.42%) (p=0.00, α= 0.05) after the education session. The results of the willingness to adopt a fall prevention program were scored at 100%. In summation, implementing the STEADI fall prevention program can assist in reducing fall rates for residents aged 65 and older who reside in a memory care setting.Keywords: dementia, elderly, falls, STEADI
Procedia PDF Downloads 1294849 Assessment of Air Quality Status Using Pollution Indicators in Industrial Zone of Brega City
Authors: Tawfig Falani, Abdulalaziz Saleh
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Air pollution has become a major environmental issue with definitive repercussions on human health. Global concerns have been raised about the health effects of deteriorating air quality due mainly to widespread industrialization and urbanization. To assess the quality of air in Brega, air quality indicators were calculated using the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency procedure. Air quality was monitored from 01/10/2019 to 28/02/2021 with a daily average measuring six pollutants of particulate matter <2.5µm (PM2.5), and <10µm (PM₁₀), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), ozone (O₃), and carbon monoxide (CO). The result indicated that air pollution at general air quality monitoring sites for sulphur dioxide, carbon monoxide, PM₁₀ and PM2.5 and nitrogen dioxide are always within the permissible limit. Referring to a monthly average of Pollutants in the Brega Industrial area, all months were out of AQG limit for NO₂, and the same with O₃ except for two months. For PM2.5 and PM₁₀ 7, 5 out of 17 months were out of limits, respectively. Relative AQI for ozone is found in the range of moderate category of general air pollution, and the worst month was Nov. 2020, which was marked as Very Unhealthy category, then the next two months (Dec. 2020 and Jan. 2021 ) were Unhealthy categories. It's the first time that we have used the AQI in SOC, and not usually used in Libya to identify the quality of air pollution. So, I think it will be useful if AQI is used as guidance for specified air pollution. That dictate putting monitoring stations beside any industrial activity that has emissions of the six major air pollutants.Keywords: air quality, air pollutants, air quality index (AQI), particulate matter
Procedia PDF Downloads 524848 Incorporating Cultural Assets in Yucatec Maya Mathematics Classrooms.
Authors: Felicia Darling
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In Yucatec Maya middle schools in the Yucatán, mathematics scores are low and high school dropout rates are high. While addressing larger social and economic causes is crucial, improving mathematics instruction is a feasible approach. This paper draws from a six-month ethnographic, mixed-method study documenting two cultural approaches to problem solving. It explores the extent to which middle school mathematics instruction capitalizes upon these cultural assets and pilots two real-life mathematics tasks that incorporate them. Findings add details to the school/community culture gap around mathematics knowledge and have implications for mathematics education for marginalized students in México and the US.Keywords: math education, indigenous, Maya, cultural assets, secondary school, teacher education
Procedia PDF Downloads 174847 Biology of Salema (Sarpa Salpa (L.)) and Population off Gökceada (Northern Aegean Sea, Türkiye): A Macro herbivore Species Living in Sea Grass Beds
Authors: Zeliha Erdogan, Hatice Torcu Koc
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The fish, Sarpa salpa (L.), is one of the main macroherbivores in the Mediterranean. A total of 600 Salema individuals were collected from around Gökçeada, Sea of Northern Aegean, between January 2014 and January 2015 in order to evaluate some information on the biology of the Salema population. For this aim, measurements of the Salema were obtained using a caliper. The age readings were made from otoliths. The population was composed of 6 age classes (I-VI). The total lengths and total weights of sampled fish were determined to be ranged from 12.5 to 33.1 cm and 33.57 to 559.33 g, respectively. Length-weight relationship for all individuals was calculated as W=0.0085*L3.1723, R2=0.9524. Growth parameters were determined as L∞= 35.55cm, k=0.31, t0= -9.2, '=2.60. As the sexual ratio was 1.08:1 (M: F), the Salema population consisted of 51.66% male and 47.5% female individuals. The highest average condition factors were observed for females in May (1.68) and for males in May (1.67). According to gonad somatic index values, the spawning period was determined twice a year in spring (April) and autumn (October). The highest average hepatosomatix index value was observed for all individuals in May and December. It was estimated that total (Z) mortality, natural (M) mortality, and fishing (F) mortality rates were Z=0.44 year-1, M=0.064 year-1 and F=0.38 year-1, respectively. As the exploitation rate was estimated as E=0.86, it can be shown that the Salema stock was highly influenced by overfishing.Keywords: biology, sarpa salpa, Gökceada, meadows
Procedia PDF Downloads 804846 A Study of the Tactile Codification on the Philippine Banknote: Redesigning for the Blind
Authors: Ace Mari S. Simbajon, Rhaella J. Ybañez, Mae G. Nadela, Cherry E. Sagun, Nera Mae A. Puyo
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This study determined the usability of the Philippine banknotes. An experimental design was used in the study involving twenty (n=20) randomly selected blind participants. The three aspects of usability were measured: effectiveness, efficiency, and satisfaction. It was found out that the effectiveness rate of the current Philippine Banknotes ranges from 20 percent to 35 percent which means it is not effective basing from Cauro’s threshold of average effectiveness rate which is 78 percent. Its efficiency rate is ranging from 18.06 to 26.22 seconds per denomination. The average satisfaction rate is 1.45 which means the blind are very dissatisfied. These results were used as a guide in making the proposed tactile codification using embossed dots or embossed lines. A round of simulation was conducted with the blind to assess the usability of the two proposals. Results were then statistically treated using t-test. Results show statistically significant difference between the usability of the current banknotes versus the proposed designs. Moreover, it was found out that the use of embossed dots is more effective, more efficient, and more satisfying than the embossed lines with an effectiveness rate ranging from 90 percent to 100 percent, efficiency rate ranging from 6.73 seconds to 12.99 seconds, and satisfaction rate of 3.4 which means the blind are very satisfied.Keywords: blind, Philippine banknotes, tactile codification, usability
Procedia PDF Downloads 2884845 Examining Influence of The Ultrasonic Power and Frequency on Microbubbles Dynamics Using Real-Time Visualization of Synchrotron X-Ray Imaging: Application to Membrane Fouling Control
Authors: Masoume Ehsani, Ning Zhu, Huu Doan, Ali Lohi, Amira Abdelrasoul
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Membrane fouling poses severe challenges in membrane-based wastewater treatment applications. Ultrasound (US) has been considered an effective fouling remediation technique in filtration processes. Bubble cavitation in the liquid medium results from the alternating rarefaction and compression cycles during the US irradiation at sufficiently high acoustic pressure. Cavitation microbubbles generated under US irradiation can cause eddy current and turbulent flow within the medium by either oscillating or discharging energy to the system through microbubble explosion. Turbulent flow regime and shear forces created close to the membrane surface cause disturbing the cake layer and dislodging the foulants, which in turn improve the cleaning efficiency and filtration performance. Therefore, the number, size, velocity, and oscillation pattern of the microbubbles created in the liquid medium play a crucial role in foulant detachment and permeate flux recovery. The goal of the current study is to gain in depth understanding of the influence of the US power intensity and frequency on the microbubble dynamics and its characteristics generated under US irradiation. In comparison with other imaging techniques, the synchrotron in-line Phase Contrast Imaging technique at the Canadian Light Source (CLS) allows in-situ observation and real-time visualization of microbubble dynamics. At CLS biomedical imaging and therapy (BMIT) polychromatic beamline, the effective parameters were optimized to enhance the contrast gas/liquid interface for the accuracy of the qualitative and quantitative analysis of bubble cavitation within the system. With the high flux of photons and the high-speed camera, a typical high projection speed was achieved; and each projection of microbubbles in water was captured in 0.5 ms. ImageJ software was used for post-processing the raw images for the detailed quantitative analyses of microbubbles. The imaging has been performed under the US power intensity levels of 50 W, 60 W, and 100 W, in addition to the US frequency levels of 20 kHz, 28 kHz, and 40 kHz. For the duration of 2 seconds of imaging, the effect of the US power and frequency on the average number, size, and fraction of the area occupied by bubbles were analyzed. Microbubbles’ dynamics in terms of their velocity in water was also investigated. For the US power increase of 50 W to 100 W, the average bubble number and the average bubble diameter were increased from 746 to 880 and from 36.7 µm to 48.4 µm, respectively. In terms of the influence of US frequency, a fewer number of bubbles were created at 20 kHz (average of 176 bubbles rather than 808 bubbles at 40 kHz), while the average bubble size was significantly larger than that of 40 kHz (almost seven times). The majority of bubbles were captured close to the membrane surface in the filtration unit. According to the study observations, membrane cleaning efficiency is expected to be improved at higher US power and lower US frequency due to the higher energy release to the system by increasing the number of bubbles or growing their size during oscillation (optimum condition is expected to be at 20 kHz and 100 W).Keywords: bubble dynamics, cavitational bubbles, membrane fouling, ultrasonic cleaning
Procedia PDF Downloads 1494844 Evaluating the Probability of Foreign Tourists' Return to the City of Mashhad, Iran
Authors: Mohammad Rahim Rahnama, Amir Ali Kharazmi, Safiye Rokni
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The tourism industry will be the most important unlimited, sustainable source of income after the oil and automotive industries by 2020 and not only countries, but cities are striving to apprehend its various facets. In line with this objective, the present descriptive-analytical study, through survey and using a questionnaire, seeks to evaluate the probability of tourists’ return and their recommendation to their countrymen to travel to Mashhad, Iran. The population under study is a sample of 384 foreign tourists who, in 2016, arrived at Mashhad, the second metropolis in Iran and its biggest religious city. The Kaplan-Meier estimator was used to analyze the data. Twenty-six percent of the tourists are female and 74% are male. On average, each tourist has had 3.02 trips abroad and 2.1 trips to Mashhad. Tourists from 14 different countries have arrived at Mashhad. Kuwait (15.9%), Armenia (15.6%), and Iraq (10.9%) were the countries where most tourists originated. Seventy-six percent of the tourists traveled with family and 90% of the tourists arrived at Mashhad via airplane. Major purposes of tourists’ trip include pilgrimage (27.9%), treatment (22.1%) followed by pilgrimage and treatment combined (35.4%). Major issues for tourists, in the order of priority, include quality of goods and services (30.2%), shopping (18%), and inhabitants’ treatment of foreigners (15.9%). Main tourist attractions, in addition to the Holy Shrine of Imam Reza, include Torqabeh and Shandiz (Torqabeh 40.9% and Shandiz 29.9%), Neyshabour (18.2%) followed by Kalat, 4.4%. The average willingness to return among tourists is 3.13, which is higher than the mean 3, indicating satisfaction with the stay in Mashhad. Similarly, the average for tourists’ recommending to their countrymen to visit Mashhad is 3.42, which is also an indicator of tourists’ satisfaction with their presence in Mashhad. According to the findings of the Kaplan-Meier estimator, an increase in the number of tourists’ trips to Mashhad, and an increase in the number of tourists’ foreign trips, reduces the probability of recommending a trip to Mashhad by tourists. Similarly, willingness to return is higher among those who stayed at a relatives’ home compared with other patterns of residence (hotels, self-catering accommodation, and pilgrim houses). Therefore, addressing the issues raised by tourists is essential for their return and their recommendation to others to travel to Mashhad.Keywords: international tourist, probability of return, satisfaction, Mashhad
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