Search results for: the risk index

Authors: Tiberiu Socaciu, Tudor Colomeischi, Eugenia Iancu

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Business failure affects in various proportions shareholders, managers, lenders (banks), suppliers, customers, the financial community, government and society as a whole. In the era in which we have telecommunications networks, exists an interdependence of markets, the effect of a failure of a company is relatively instant. To effectively manage risk exposure is thus require sophisticated support systems, supported by analytical tools to measure, monitor, manage and control operational risks that may arise. As we know, bankruptcy is a phenomenon that managers do not want no matter what stage of life is the company they direct / lead. In the analysis made by us, by the nature of economic models that are reviewed (Altman, Conan-Holder etc.), estimating the risk of bankruptcy of a company corresponds to some extent with its own business cycle tracing of the company. Various models for predicting bankruptcy take into account direct / indirect aspects such as market position, company growth trend, competition structure, characteristics and customer retention, organization and distribution, location etc. From the perspective of our research we will now review the economic models known in theory and practice for estimating the risk of bankruptcy; such models are based on indicators drawn from major accounting firms.

Keywords: Anglo-Saxon models, continental models, national models, statistical models

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Authors: Abdulrahman H. Alrashidi

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Kuwait Oil Company provides health care services through Ahmadi hospital for oil sector employee and their families. Due to increasing number of entitled patients in Ahmadi hospital, the company starts health insurance option in 2010. In addition, a new Ahmadi hospital decided to build to accumulate all entitled patients. Operation and management of new Ahmadi hospital investigated in this research. In order to maintain the high quality of medical services and satisfaction rate among oil sector community and reducing the operation cost. Six operation and management options evaluated in order to implement in new Ahmadi hospital. Qualitative Risk assessment method used to investigate proposed options for operation and management of new Ahmadi hospital. Evaluation criteria consist of quality of medical services, operation cost and satisfaction rate among oil sector community. Results show that using the same operation and management system in existing Ahmadi hospital with new Ahmadi hospital will bring cost higher. This approach brings risk to KOC. Results from risk assessment show that partially operated new Ahmadi hospital is the best opportunity to meet the objectives of KOC’s medical group.

Keywords: Kuwait Oil Company, new Ahmadi hospital, operation and management, risk assessment

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Authors: Era Dorihi Kale, Sabina Gero, Uly Agustine

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Asylum seekers are people who come to other countries to get asylum. In line with that, they also carry the culture and health behavior of their country, which is very different from the new country they currently live in. This situation raises problems, also in the health sector. The approach taken must also be a culturally sensitive approach, where the culture and habits of the refugee's home area are also valued so that the health services provided can be right on target. Some risk factors that already exist in this group are lack of activity, consumption of fast food, smoking, and stress levels that are quite high. Overall this condition will increase the risk of an increased incidence of cardiovascular disease. This research is a descriptive and experimental study. The purpose of this study is to identify health status and develop a culturally sensitive health promotion model, especially related to the risk of cardiovascular disease for asylum seekers in detention homes in the city of Kupang. This research was carried out in 3 stages, stage 1 was conducting a survey of health problems and the risk of asylum seeker cardiovascular disease, Stage 2 developed a health promotion model, and stage 3 conducted a testing model of health promotion carried out. There were 81 respondents involved in this study. The variables measured were: health status, risk of cardiovascular disease and, health promotion models. Method of data collection: Instruments (questionnaires) were distributed to respondents answered for anamnese health status; then, cardiovascular risk measurements were taken. After that, the preparation of information needs and the compilation of booklets on the prevention of cardiovascular disease is carried out. The compiled booklet was then translated into Farsi. After that, the booklet was tested. Respondent characteristics: average lived in Indonesia for 4.38 years, the majority were male (90.1%), and most were aged 15-34 years (90.1%). There are several diseases that are often suffered by asylum seekers, namely: gastritis, headaches, diarrhea, acute respiratory infections, skin allergies, sore throat, cough, and depression. The level of risk for asylum seekers experiencing cardiovascular problems is 4 high risk people, 6 moderate risk people, and 71 low risk people. This condition needs special attention because the number of people at risk is quite high when compared to the age group of refugees. This is very related to the level of stress experienced by the refugees. The health promotion model that can be used is the transactional stress and coping model, using Persian (oral) and English for written information. It is recommended for health practitioners who care for refugees to always pay attention to aspects of culture (especially language) as well as the psychological condition of asylum seekers to make it easier to conduct health care and promotion. As well for further research, it is recommended to conduct research, especially relating to the effect of psychological stress on the risk of cardiovascular disease in asylum seekers.

Keywords: asylum seekers, health status, cardiovascular disease, health promotion

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Authors: Qurratulain Safdar

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Drought is a temporary aberration in contrast to aridity, as it is a permanent feature of climate. Virtually, it takes place in all types of climatic regions that range from high to low rainfall areas. Due to the wide latitudinal extent of Pakistan, there is seasonal and annual variability in rainfall. The south-central part of the country is arid and hyper-arid. This study focuses on the spatio-temporal analysis of droughts in arid and hyperarid region of Cholistan using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) approach. This study has assessed the extent of recurrences of drought and its temporal vulnerability to drought in Cholistan region. Initially, the paper described the geographic setup of the study area along with a brief description of the drought conditions that prevail in Pakistan. The study also provides a scientific foundation for preparing literature and theoretical framework in-line with the selected parameters and indicators. Data were collected both from primary and secondary data sources. Rainfall and temperature data were obtained from Pakistan Meteorology Department. By applying geostatistical approach, a standardized precipitation index (SPI) was calculated for the study region, and the value of spatio-temporal variability of drought and its severity was explored. As a result, in-depth spatial analysis of drought conditions in Cholistan area was found. Parallel to this, drought-prone areas with seasonal variation were also identified using Kriging spatial interpolation techniques in a GIS environment. The study revealed that there is temporal variation in droughts' occurrences both in time series and SPI values. The paper is finally concluded, and strategic plan was suggested to minimize the impacts of drought.

Keywords: Cholistan desert, climate anomalies, metrological droughts, standardized precipitation index

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Authors: Saleh Alzahrani, Halim Boussabaine

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The Public Private Partnership (PPP) contracts are produced taking into account the reason that the configuration, development, operation, and financing of an open undertaking is to be recompensed to a private gathering inside a solitary contractual structure. PPP venture dangers are ordinarily connected with the improvement and development of another resource and in addition its operation for a considerable length of time. Without a doubt, the most genuine outcomes of dangers amid the development period are value and time overwhelms. These occasions are amongst the most extensively utilized situations as a part of worth for cash investigation dangers. The wellsprings of danger change over the life cycle of a PPP venture. In customary acquirement, the general population segment ordinarily needs to cover all value trouble from these dangers. At any rate there is bounty confirmation to recommend that cost pain is a standard in a percentage of the tasks that are conveyed under customary obtainment. This paper means to research the effect of endogenous dangers on expense overwhelm in KSA PPP ventures. The paper displays a brief writing survey on PPP danger evaluating systems, and after that presents an affiliation model between danger occasions and expense invade in KSA. The paper finishes up with considerations for future examination.

Keywords: PPP, risk pricing, impact of risk, Endogenous risks

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Authors: Ndou Rembuluwani Moddy, Daniel Ter Goon, Takalani Grace Tshitangano, Lindelani Fhumudzani Mushaphi

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Obesity is a global public health problem. The study aimed to determine the risk factors associated with and the consequences of obesity among residents of Tshikota, Makhado Municipality, Limpopo Province, South Africa. A cross-sectional study involving 318 randomly selected adults aged 18-45 years residing at Tshikota, Makhado Local Municipality, South Africa. Sociodemographic information includes age, gender, educational level, occupation, behavioral lifestyle, environmental, psychological, and family history. Anthropometric, blood pressure, and blood glucose measurements followed standard procedure. The prevalence of obesity and overweight was 35.5% and 28.6%, respectively. About 75.2% of obese do not engage in physical activity. Most participants (63.5%) take meals three times a day, and 19.2% do not skip breakfast. Most participants do not have access to fruits and vegetables. Participants who were pre-hypertensive were 92(28.9%) and 32(10.1%) were in Stage 1 hypertension. Of the participants with Class 1 obesity, 40.9% were pre-hypertensive, and 15.2% were in Stage 1 hypertension. In Class 2 obesity, 37.8% were pre-hypertensive, and 26.7% were in Stage 1 hypertension. There was a significant difference between BMI and blood pressure among participants (p=0.00). About 6.1% of the participants in Class 1 obesity were at high risk, and 3.0% were at very high risk of glucose levels. Regarding cholesterol levels, 65 (20.4%) were at borderline, and 17(5.3%) were at high risk. There was no significant difference in BMI and cholesterol levels among participants (p= 0.20). The prevalence of obesity and overweight was high among residents of this setting. Age, marital and educational status, and employment were significantly associated with obesity. An obesity awareness campaign is crucial, and the availability of supermarkets and full-service grocery stores would provide accessibility to healthy food such as fruits and vegetables.

Keywords: obesity, overweight, risk factors, adults.

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Authors: Alexander Guzman Urbina, Atsushi Aoyama

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The sustainability of traditional technologies employed in energy and chemical infrastructure brings a big challenge for our society. Making decisions related with safety of industrial infrastructure, the values of accidental risk are becoming relevant points for discussion. However, the challenge is the reliability of the models employed to get the risk data. Such models usually involve large number of variables and with large amounts of uncertainty. The most efficient techniques to overcome those problems are built using Artificial Intelligence (AI), and more specifically using hybrid systems such as Neuro-Fuzzy algorithms. Therefore, this paper aims to introduce a hybrid algorithm for risk assessment trained using near-miss accident data. As mentioned above the sustainability of traditional technologies related with energy and chemical infrastructure constitutes one of the major challenges that today’s societies and firms are facing. Besides that, the adaptation of those technologies to the effects of the climate change in sensible environments represents a critical concern for safety and risk management. Regarding this issue argue that social consequences of catastrophic risks are increasing rapidly, due mainly to the concentration of people and energy infrastructure in hazard-prone areas, aggravated by the lack of knowledge about the risks. Additional to the social consequences described above, and considering the industrial sector as critical infrastructure due to its large impact to the economy in case of a failure the relevance of industrial safety has become a critical issue for the current society. Then, regarding the safety concern, pipeline operators and regulators have been performing risk assessments in attempts to evaluate accurately probabilities of failure of the infrastructure, and consequences associated with those failures. However, estimating accidental risks in critical infrastructure involves a substantial effort and costs due to number of variables involved, complexity and lack of information. Therefore, this paper aims to introduce a well trained algorithm for risk assessment using deep learning, which could be capable to deal efficiently with the complexity and uncertainty. The advantage point of the deep learning using near-miss accidents data is that it could be employed in risk assessment as an efficient engineering tool to treat the uncertainty of the risk values in complex environments. The basic idea of using a Near-Miss Deep Learning Approach for Neuro-Fuzzy Risk Assessment in Pipelines is focused in the objective of improve the validity of the risk values learning from near-miss accidents and imitating the human expertise scoring risks and setting tolerance levels. In summary, the method of Deep Learning for Neuro-Fuzzy Risk Assessment involves a regression analysis called group method of data handling (GMDH), which consists in the determination of the optimal configuration of the risk assessment model and its parameters employing polynomial theory.

Keywords: deep learning, risk assessment, neuro fuzzy, pipelines

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Authors: Peifang Hsieh

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New Taipei city faces increasing number of migrant families, in which the needs of children are sometimes neglected due to insufficient support from communities. Moreover, the traditional mindset of disengagement discourages citizens from preemptively identifying families in need in their communities, resulting in delay of prompt intervention from authorities concerned. To safeguard these vulnerable families, New Taipei city develops the 'Integrated Safety-Net Program for High-Risk Families' from 2011 by implementing the following measures: (A) New attitude and action: Instead of passively receiving reported case of high-risk families, the program takes proactive and preemptive approach to detect and respond at early stage, so the cases are prevented from worsening. In addition, cross-departmental integration mechanism is established to meet multiple needs of high-risk families. The children number added to the government care network is greatly increased to over 10,000, which is around 4.4 times the original number before the program. (B) New service points: 2000 city-wide convenience stores are added as service stations so that children in less privileged families can go to any of 24-hour convenience stores across the city to pick up free meals. This greatly increases the approachability to high-risk families. Moreover, the social welfare institutes will be notified with information left in convenience stores by children and follow up with further assistance, greatly enhancing chances of less privileged families being identified. (C) New Key Figures: Mobilize community officers and volunteers to detect and offer on-site assistance. Volunteer organizations within communities are connected to report and offer follow-up services in a more active manner. In total, from 2011 to 2015, 54,789 cases are identified through active care, benefiting 82,124 children. In addition, 87.49% family-cases in the program receiving comprehensive social assistance are no longer at high risk.

Keywords: cross department, high-risk families, public-private partnership, integrated safety net

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Authors: Kriti Singh, Saurabh Tripathi, Pankaj Chaudhary, Abid Ali Ansari, Seema Nigam

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Introduction: The introduction of android and iOS has changed our lives dramatically over the past few years. The new generation is more dependent on their mobile phones for carrying out their daily pursuits. Smartphones have revolutionized our lives. The cutdown in rates of mobile network services has been affecting us drastically. A new type of dependence is seen among the people for Smartphones. A cross-sectional study was conducted to determine the state of addiction among the group of medical students, along with its association with sleep hygiene and anxiety. Material and Method: Study included 50 individuals in the age group of 18-35 years. Smartphone Addiction Scale Short Version, Sleep Hygiene Index, and Perceived Stress Scales were used conducting the study. Results: Mean age of 22 years (12%). The majority of subjects were 20-year olds (15 out of 50), the majority were males with few females. Mean Smartphone addiction score 39 (very severe), Mean Sleep Hygiene Index score 26.76 (moderate maladaptive hygiene and Mean Perceived Stress score of 19.92 (moderate stress). Conclusion: In majority students were found to have a very severe Smartphone Addiction with moderate sleep hygiene and a moderate level of perceived stress. The Smartphone was being used was for surfing social media applications.

Keywords: addiction perceived stress, sleep hygiene index, smartphone

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Authors: Amin AminiKhafri, James M. Dawson-Edwards, Ryan M. Simpson, Simaan M. AbouRizk

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Earned value management (EVM) has been introduced as an integrated method to combine schedule, budget, and work breakdown structure (WBS). EVM provides various indices to demonstrate project performance including the cost performance index (CPI). CPI is also used to forecast final project cost at completion based on the cost performance during the project execution. Knowing the final project cost during execution can initiate corrective actions, which can enhance project outputs. CPI, however, is not constant during the project, and calculating the final project cost using a variable index is an inaccurate and challenging task for practitioners. Since CPI is based on the cumulative progress values and because of the learning curve effect, CPI variation dampens and stabilizes as project progress. Although various definitions for the CPI stability have been proposed in literature, many scholars have agreed upon the definition that considers a project as stable if the CPI at 20% completion varies less than 0.1 from the final CPI. While 20% completion point is recognized as the stability point for military development projects, construction projects stability have not been studied. In the current study, an empirical study was first conducted using construction project data to determine the stability point for construction projects. Early findings have demonstrated that a majority of construction projects stabilize towards completion (i.e., after 70% completion point). To investigate the effect of CPI stability on cost forecast accuracy, the correlation between CPI stability and project cost at completion forecast accuracy was also investigated. It was determined that as projects progress closer towards completion, variation of the CPI decreases and final project cost forecast accuracy increases. Most projects were found to have 90% accuracy in the final cost forecast at 70% completion point, which is inlined with findings from the CPI stability findings. It can be concluded that early stabilization of the project CPI results in more accurate cost at completion forecasts.

Keywords: cost performance index, earned value management, empirical study, final project cost

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Authors: Fernando Seabra, Giulia P. Flores, Karolina C. Gomes

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Trade liberalizations measures, as import tariff cuts, are not a sufficient trigger for trade growth. Given that price margins are narrow, traders and cargo operators tend to opt out of markets where the process of goods clearance is slow and costly. Excess paperwork and slow customs dispatch not only lead to institutional breakdowns and corruption but also to increasing transaction cost and trade constraints. The objective of this paper is, therefore, two-fold: First, to evaluate the relationship between institutional and infrastructural performance indexes and trade growth in container throughput; and, second, to investigate the causes for differences in container demurrage and detention fees in Latin American countries (using other emerging countries as benchmarking). The analysis is focused on manufactured goods, typically transported by containers. Institutional and infrastructure bottlenecks and, therefore, the country logistics efficiency – measured by the Logistics Performance Index (LPI, World Bank-WB) – are compared with other indexes, such as the Doing Business index (WB) and the Corruption Perception Index (Transparency International). The main results based on the comparison between Latin American countries and the others emerging countries point out in that the growth in containers trade is directly related to LPI performance. It has also been found that the main hypothesis is valid as aspects that more specifically identify trade facilitation and corruption are significant drivers of logistics performance. The exam of port efficiency (demurrage and detention fees) has demonstrated that not necessarily higher level of efficiency is related to lower charges; however, reductions in fees have been more significant within non-Latin American emerging countries.

Keywords: corruption, logistics performance index, container throughput, Latin America

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Authors: Alon Cohen, Jeffrey Kantor, Shalom Levy

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Technology adoption models are extensively used in the literature to explore drivers and inhibitors affecting the adoption of Computer Assisted Audit Techniques and Tools (CAATTs). Further studies from recent years suggested additional factors that may affect technology adoption by CPA firms. However, the adoption of CAATTs by financial auditors differs from the adoption of technologies in other industries. This is a result of the unique characteristics of the auditing process, which are expressed in the audit risk elements and the risk-based auditing approach, as encoded in the auditing standards. Since these audit risk factors are not part of the existing models that are used to explain technology adoption, these models do not fully correspond to the specific needs and requirements of the auditing domain. The overarching objective of this qualitative research is to fill the gap in the literature, which exists as a result of using generic technology adoption models. Followed by a pretest and based on semi-structured in-depth interviews with 16 Israeli CPA firms of different sizes, this study aims to reveal determinants related to audit risk factors that influence the adoption of CAATTs in audits and proposes a new modeling approach for the successful adoption of CAATTs. The findings emphasize several important aspects: (1) while large CPA firms developed their own inner guidelines to assess the audit risk components, other CPA firms do not follow a formal and validated methodology to evaluate these risks; (2) large firms incorporate a variety of CAATTs, including self-developed advanced tools. On the other hand, small and mid-sized CPA firms incorporate standard CAATTs and still need to catch up to better understand what CAATTs can offer and how they can contribute to the quality of the audit; (3) the top management of mid-sized and small CPA firms should be more proactive and updated about CAATTs capabilities and contributions to audits; and (4) All CPA firms consider professionalism as a major challenge that must be constantly managed to ensure an optimal CAATTs operation. The study extends the existing knowledge of CAATTs adoption by looking at it from a risk-based auditing approach. It suggests a new model for CAATTs adoption by incorporating influencing audit risk factors that auditors should examine when considering CAATTs adoption. Since the model can be used in various audited scenarios and supports strategic, risk-based decisions, it maximizes the great potential of CAATTs on the quality of the audits. The results and insights can be useful to CPA firms, internal auditors, CAATTs developers and regulators. Moreover, it may motivate audit standard-setters to issue updated guidelines regarding CAATTs adoption in audits.

Keywords: audit risk, CAATTs, financial auditing, information technology, technology adoption models

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Authors: Ben-Caleb Egbide, Iyoha Francis, Egharevba Mathew, Oduntan Emmanuel

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The prosperity of any nation is determined not just by the availability of resources, but also by the discipline exercised in the management of those resources. This paper examines the functional association between adherence to budgetary estimates or budget discipline (BDISC) and national prosperity proxied by Real Gross Domestic Product (RGDP) and Relative Poverty Index (RPI)/Human Development Index (HDI). Adopting a longitudinal retrospective research strategy, time series data relating to both the endogenous and exogenous variables were extracted from official government publications for 36 years’ (1980-2015 in the case of RGDP and RPI), and for 26 years (1990-2015 in the case of HDI). Ordinary Least Square (OLS), as well as cointegration regressions, were employed to gauge both the short term and long term impact of BDISC on RPI/HDI and RGDP. The results indicated that BDISC is directly related with RGDP but indirectly related with RPI. The implication is that while adherence to budgetary estimate can enhance economic growth, it has the capacity to slow down the rate of poverty in the long run. The paper, therefore, recommend stricter adherence to budgets as a way out of economic under performance in Nigeria and engender the process of promoting human development and national prosperity.

Keywords: budget discipline, human development index, national prosperity, Nigeria

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Authors: Rubab Ammad, Abdelgadir Abuelgasim

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UAE typically lies in one of the aridest regions of the world and is thus home to geologic features common to such climatic conditions including vast open deserts, sand dunes, saline soils, inland Sabkha and coastal Sabkha. Sabkha are characteristic salt flats formed in arid environment due to deposition and precipitation of salt and silt over sand surface because of low laying water table and rates of evaporation exceeding rates of precipitation. The study area, which comprises of western UAE, is heavily concentrated with inland Sabkha. Remote sensing is conventionally used to study the soil salinity of agriculturally degraded lands but not so broadly for Sabkha. The focus of this study was to identify these highly saline Sabkha areas on remotely sensed data, using salinity indices. The existing salinity indices in the literature have been designed for agricultural soils and they have not frequently used the spectral response of short-wave infra-red (SWIR1 and SWIR2) parts of electromagnetic spectrum. Using Landsat 8 OLI data and field ground truthing, this study formulated indices utilizing NIR-SWIR parts of spectrum and compared the results with existing salinity indices. Most indices depict reasonably good relationship between salinity and spectral index up until a certain value of salinity after which the reflectance reaches a saturation point. This saturation point varies with index. However, the study findings suggest a role of incorporating near infra-red and short-wave infra-red in salinity index with a potential of showing a positive relationship between salinity and reflectance up to a higher salinity value, compared to rest.

Keywords: Sabkha, salinity index, saline soils, Landsat 8, SWIR1, SWIR2, UAE desert

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Authors: Yawen Xia, Rubi Yang, Jing Zhao

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We examine the environmental, social, and governance (ESG) decision-making of companies during turbulent times like COVID-19. We find that firms’ ESG reputation risk comove with their industry and local peers, suggesting that managers may follow their industry and local counterparts in engaging in irresponsible activities. Moreover, the comovement in reputation risk is attenuated during the COVID-19 pandemic. Further analyses suggest that the reduction in comovement varies by state-level partisanship and death rate during the pandemic. Comovement in reputation risk declines more significantly in the Democratic states with stringent social distancing policies and in states with higher infection severity. Our findings suggest that social distancing provisions during COVID-19 may lead to a reduction in social activities and information sharing among enterprise managers.

Keywords: ESG, Covid, peer pressure, local comovement, orporate governance

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Authors: Ratri A. Benedictus, Felicia M. Yolanda

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Public transport is a crucial issue for capital city in developing country, such as Jakarta. Inadequate number and low quality of public transport services resulting personal vehicles as the main option. As a result, traffic jams are getting worse in Jakarta. The low quality of public transport, particularly buses, compounded by the risk behavior of the driver. Traffic accidents involving public bus in Jakarta were often the case, even result in fatality. The purpose of this study is to get a description of risk behavior among the public bus drivers in Jakarta. 132 bus drivers become respondent of this study. Risky Driving Behavior scale of Dorn were used. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. 51.5% of respondents felt often showing risky behavior while on driving. The highest type of risky driving behavior is still using the unsafe bus (62%). Followed by trespass the bus line (30%), over speed (21%), violate the road signs (15%) and driving with unhealthy physical condition (4%). Results of this study suggested that high understanding of the bus drivers on their risk behaviors have not lead to the emergence of safe driving behavior. Therefore, together with technical engineering and instrumentation work intervention over this issue, psychological aspects also need to be considered, such as: risk perception, safety attitude,safety culture, locus of control and Fatalism.

Keywords: bus driver, psychological factors, public transportation, risky driving behavior

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Authors: Osayomwanbor E. Oghama, John O. Olomukoro

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The school environment, apart from home, is probably the most important indoor environment for children. Children spend as much as 80-90% of their indoor time either at school or at home; an average of 35 - 40 hours per week in schools, hence are at the risk of indoor air pollutants such as volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Concentrations of VOCs vary widely but are generally higher indoors than outdoors. This research was, therefore, carried out to evaluate the levels of VOCs in secondary school classrooms in Benin City, Edo State. Samples were obtained from a total of 18 classrooms in 6 secondary schools. Samples were collected 3 times from each school and from 3 different classrooms in each school using Draeger ORSA 5 tubes. Samplers were left to stay for a school-week (5 days). The VOCs detected and analyzed were benzene, ethlybenzene, isopropylbenzene, naphthalene, n-butylbenzene, n-propylbenzene, toluene, m-xylene, p-xylene, o-xylene, styrene, chlorobenzene, chloroform, 1,2-dichloropropane, 2,2-dichloropropane, tetrachloroethane, tetrahydrofuran, isopropyl acetate, α-pinene, and camphene. The results showed that chloroform, o-xylene, and styrene were the most abundant while α-pinene and camphene were the least abundant. The health risk assessment was done in terms of carcinogenic (CRI) and non-carcinogenic risks (THR). The CRI values of the schools ranged from 1.03 × 10-5 to 1.36 × 10-5 μg/m³ (a mean of 1.16 × 10-5 μg/m³) with School 6 and School 3 having the highest and lowest values respectively. The THR values of the study schools ranged from 0.071-0.086 μg/m³ (a mean of 0.078 μg/m³) with School 3 and School 2 having the highest and lowest values respectively. The results show that all the schools pose a potential carcinogenic risks having CRI values greater than the recommended limit of 1 × 10-6 µg/m³ and no non-carcinogenic risk having THR values less than the USEPA hazard quotient of 1 µg/m³. It is recommended that school authorities should ensure adequate ventilation in their schools, supplementing natural ventilation with mechanical sources, where necessary. In addition, indoor air quality should be taken into consideration in the design and construction of classrooms.

Keywords: carcinogenic risk indicator, health risk, indoor air, non-carcinogenic risk indicator, secondary schools, volatile organic compounds

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Authors: Alin Veronika, Yusuf Latief

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This critical review meticulously delineates and elucidates the considerable deficiencies and voids that exist within the extant body of literature concerning the development strategies associated with risk-based Project Management Offices (PMOs). Although the advantages and positive outcomes linked to the establishment and functioning of PMOs are regularly articulated and acknowledged in various academic discourses, the empirical evidence that supports these claims frequently demonstrates a significant shortfall in methodological rigor and often encounters challenges when attempting to distinctly isolate and delineate the unique contributions and impacts of PMOs in contrast to other multifaceted organizational factors that may also play a role. This comprehensive review systematically scrutinizes and evaluates the current research landscape pertaining to the critical success factors that include, but are not limited to, strategic alignment, organizational structure, human capital, operational efficiency, technology, and the overarching influence of organizational culture, thereby identifying notable limitations within this research domain and proposing targeted areas for further scholarly investigation. Furthermore, the analysis accentuates the imperative need for the development and implementation of more sophisticated, nuanced risk assessment and mitigation frameworks that are specifically designed to cater to the unique operational characteristics of PMOs while simultaneously advocating for an elevated focus on the profound influence exerted by organizational culture and its various subcultures on the overall effectiveness and success of PMOs.

Keywords: organizational culture, project management office, risk management, risk-based PMO development

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Authors: Lina Psarra, Manogj Sundaresan, Purjeet Sutar

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In response to the global imperative for sustainable solutions, this article proposes the development of a comprehensive circularity index applicable to a wide range of products across various industries. The absence of a consensus on using a universal metric to assess circularity performance presents a significant challenge in prioritizing and effectively managing sustainable initiatives. This circularity index serves as a quantitative measure to evaluate the adherence of products, processes, and systems to the principles of a circular economy. Unlike traditional distinct metrics such as recycling rates or material efficiency, this index considers the entire lifecycle of a product in one single metric, also incorporating additional factors such as reusability, scarcity of materials, reparability, and recyclability. Through a systematic approach and by reviewing existing metrics and past methodologies, this work aims to address this gap by formulating a circularity index that can be applied to diverse product portfolio and assist in comparing the circularity of products on a scale of 0%-100%. Project objectives include developing a formula, designing and implementing a pilot tool based on the developed Product Circularity Index (PCI), evaluating the effectiveness of the formula and tool using real product data, and assessing the feasibility of integration into various sustainability initiatives. The research methodology involves an iterative process of comprehensive research, analysis, and refinement where key steps include defining circularity parameters, collecting relevant product data, applying the developed formula, and testing the tool in a pilot phase to gather insights and make necessary adjustments. Major findings of the study indicate that the PCI provides a robust framework for evaluating product circularity across various dimensions. The Excel-based pilot tool demonstrated high accuracy and reliability in measuring circularity, and the database proved instrumental in supporting comprehensive assessments. The PCI facilitated the identification of key areas for improvement, enabling more informed decision-making towards circularity and benchmarking across different products, essentially assisting towards better resource management. In conclusion, the development of the Product Circularity Index represents a significant advancement in global sustainability efforts. By providing a standardized metric, the PCI empowers companies and stakeholders to systematically assess product circularity, track progress, identify improvement areas, and make informed decisions about resource management. This project contributes to the broader discourse on sustainable development by offering a practical approach to enhance circularity within industrial systems, thus paving the way towards a more resilient and sustainable future.

Keywords: circular economy, circular metrics, circularity assessment, circularity tool, sustainable product design, product circularity index

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Authors: Mohammad H. Yarmohammadian, Masoud Ferdosi, Abbas Haghshenas, Fatemeh Rezaei

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Surgical procedures aim at preserving human life and improving quality of their life. However, there are many potential risk sources that can cause serious harm to patients. For centuries, managers believed that technical competence of a surgeon is the only key to a successful surgery. But over the past decade, risks are considered in terms of process-based safety procedures, teamwork and inter departmental communication. Aims: This study aims to determine how the process- biased surgical risk management should be done in terms of project management tool named ABS (Activity Breakdown Structure). Settings and Design: This study was conducted in two stages. First, literature review and meeting with professors was done to determine principles and framework of surgical risk management. Next, responsible teams for surgical patient journey were involved in following meeting to develop the process- biased surgical risk management. Methods and Material: This study is a qualitative research in which focus groups with the inductive approach is used. Sampling was performed to achieve representativeness through intensity sampling biased on experience and seniority. Analysis Method used: context analysis of interviews and consensus themes extracted from FDG meetings discussion was the analysis tool. Results: we developed the patient journey process in 5 main phases, 24 activities and 108 tasks. Then, responsible teams, transposition and allocated places for performing determined. Some activities and tasks themes were repeated in each phases like patient identification and records review because of their importance. Conclusions: Risk management of surgical departments is significant as this facility is the hospital’s largest cost and revenue center. Good communication between surgical team and other clinical teams outside surgery department through process- biased perspective could improve safety of patient under this procedure.

Keywords: risk management, activity breakdown structure (ABS), surgical department, medical sciences

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Authors: Ezgi Nevruz, Kasirga Yildirak, Ashis SenGupta

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Comparing or ranking risks is the main motivating factor behind the human trait of making choices. Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) is a preference theory approach that evaluates perception and bias in decision making under risk and uncertainty. We aim to investigate the aggregate claims of different risk classes in terms of their comparability and amenability to ordering when the impact of risk perception is considered. For this aim, we prioritize the aggregate claims taken as actuarial risks by using various stochastic ordering relations. In order to prioritize actuarial risks, we use stochastic relations such as stochastic dominance and stop-loss dominance that are proposed in the frame of partial order theory. We take into account the dependency of the individual claims exposed to similar environmental risks. At first, we modify the zero-utility premium principle in order to obtain a solution for the stop-loss premium under CPT. Then, we propose a stochastic stop-loss dominance of the aggregate claims and find a relation between the stop-loss dominance and the first-order stochastic dominance under the dependence assumption by using properties of the familiar as well as some emerging multivariate claim distributions.

Keywords: cumulative prospect theory, partial order theory, risk perception, stochastic dominance, stop-loss dominance

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Authors: Sarah Müller-Sägebrecht

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Today’s volatile environment challenges executives to make the right strategic decisions to gain sustainable success. Entrepreneurship scholars postulate mainly positive effects of environmental changes on entrepreneurship behavior, such as developing new business opportunities, promoting ingenuity, and the satisfaction of resource voids. A strategic solution approach to overcome threatening environmental changes and catch new business opportunities is business model innovation (BMI). Although this research stream has gained further importance in the last decade, BMI research is still insufficient. Especially BMI barriers, such as inefficient strategic decision-making processes, need to be identified. Strategic decisions strongly impact organizational future and are, therefore, usually made in groups. Although groups draw on a more extensive information base than single individuals, group-interaction effects can influence the decision-making process - in a favorable but also unfavorable way. Decisions are characterized by uncertainty and risk, whereby their intensity is perceived individually differently. The individual risk-willingness influences which option humans choose. The special nature of strategic decisions, such as in BMI processes, is that these decisions are not made individually but in groups due to their high organizational scope. These groups consist of different personalities whose individual risk-willingness can vary considerably. It is known from group decision theory that these individuals influence each other, observable in different group-interaction effects. The following research questions arise: i) How does group interaction shape BMI decision-making from managers’ perspective? ii) What are the potential interrelations among managers’ risk-willingness, group biases, and BMI decision-making? After conducting 26 in-depth interviews with executives from the manufacturing industry, applied Gioia methodology reveals the following results: i) Risk-averse decision-makers have an increased need to be guided by facts. The more information available to them, the lower they perceive uncertainty and the more willing they are to pursue a specific decision option. However, the results also show that social interaction does not change the individual risk-willingness in the decision-making process. ii) Generally, it could be observed that during BMI decisions, group interaction is primarily beneficial to increase the group’s information base for making good decisions, less than for social interaction. Further, decision-makers mainly focus on information available to all decision-makers in the team but less on personal knowledge. This work contributes to strategic decision-making literature twofold. First, it gives insights into how group-interaction effects influence an organization’s strategic BMI decision-making. Second, it enriches risk-management research by highlighting how individual risk-willingness impacts organizational strategic decision-making. To date, it was known in BMI research that risk aversion would be an internal BMI barrier. However, with this study, it becomes clear that it is not risk aversion that inhibits BMI. Instead, the lack of information prevents risk-averse decision-makers from choosing a riskier option. Simultaneously, results show that risk-averse decision-makers are not easily carried away by the higher risk-willingness of their team members. Instead, they use social interaction to gather missing information. Therefore, executives need to provide sufficient information to all decision-makers to catch promising business opportunities.

Keywords: business model innovation, cognitive biases, group-interaction effects, strategic decision-making, risk-willingness

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Authors: Siqi Qiu, Yijian Zheng, Xin Guo Ming

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In many reliability and risk analysis, failures of components are supposed to be independent. However, in reality, the ignorance of failure dependencies among components may render the results of reliability and risk analysis incorrect. There are two principal ways to incorporate failure dependencies in system reliability and risk analysis: implicit and explicit methods. In the implicit method, failure dependencies can be modeled by joint probabilities, correlation values or conditional probabilities. In the explicit method, certain types of dependencies can be modeled in a fault tree as mutually independent basic events for specific component failures. In this paper, explicit and implicit methods based on BDD will be proposed to evaluate the reliability of systems considering failure dependencies. The obtained results prove the equivalence of the proposed implicit and explicit methods. It is found that the consideration of failure dependencies decreases the reliability of systems. This observation is intuitive, because more components fail due to failure dependencies. The consideration of failure dependencies helps designers to reduce the dependencies between components during the design phase to make the system more reliable.

Keywords: reliability assessment, risk assessment, failure dependencies, binary decision diagram

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Authors: Andrea Szabó Nagy, János Szabó, Zsófia Csanádi, József Erdős

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The main objective of this study was to assess the seasonal variation of atmospheric polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon (PAH) concentrations associated with PM10 in an urban site of Győr, Hungary. A total of 112 PM10 aerosol samples were collected in the years of 2012 and 2013 and analyzed for PAHs by gas chromatography method. The total PAH concentrations (sum of the concentrations of 19 individual PAH compounds) ranged from 0.19 to 70.16 ng/m3 with the mean value of 12.29 ng/m3. Higher concentrations of both total PAHs and benzo[a]pyrene (BaP) were detected in samples collected in the heating seasons. Using BaP-equivalent potency index on the carcinogenic PAH concentration data, the local population appears to be exposed to significantly higher cancer risk in the heating seasons. However, the comparison of the BaP and total PAH concentrations observed for Győr with other cities it was found that the PAH levels in Győr generally corresponded to the EU average.

Keywords: air quality, benzo[a]pyrene, PAHs, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons

Procedia PDF Downloads 478

Authors: R. Ondarza-Rovira, T. J. M. Boyd

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Intense femtosecond laser light incident on over-critical density plasmas has shown to emit a prolific number of high-order harmonics of the driver frequency, with spectra characterized by power-law decays Pm ~ m-p, where m denotes the harmonic order and p the spectral decay index. When the laser pulse is p-polarized, plasma effects do modify the harmonic spectrum, weakening the so-called universal decay with p=8/3 to p=5/3, or below. In this work, appeal is made to a single particle radiation model in support of the predictions from particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations. Using this numerical technique we further show that the emission radiated by electrons -that are relativistically accelerated by the laser field inside the plasma, after being expelled into vacuum, the so-called Brunel electrons is characterized not only by the plasma line but also by ultraviolet harmonic orders described by the 5/3 decay index. Results obtained from these simulations suggest that for ultra-relativistic light intensities, the spectral decay index is further reduced, with p now in the range 2/3 ≤ p ≤ 4/3. This reduction is indicative of a transition from the regime where Brunel-induced plasma radiation influences the spectrum to one dominated by bremsstrahlung emission from the Brunel electrons.

Keywords: ultra-relativistic, laser-plasma interactions, high-order harmonic emission, radiation, spectrum

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Authors: Samuel Carpintero

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Public-private partnerships (PPP) arrangements have emerged all around the world as a response to infrastructure deficits and the need to refurbish existing infrastructure. The motivations of governments for embarking on PPPs for the delivery of public infrastructure are manifold, and include on-time and on-budget delivery as well as access to private project management expertise. The PPP formula has been used by some State governments in United States and Canada, where the participation of private companies in financing and managing infrastructure projects has increased significantly in the last decade, particularly in the transport sector. On the one hand, this paper examines the various ways used in these two countries in the implementation of PPP arrangements, with a particular focus on risk transfer. The examination of risk transfer in this paper is carried out with reference to the following key PPP risk categories: construction risk, revenue risk, operating risk and availability risk. The main difference between both countries is that in Canada the demand risk remains usually within the public sector whereas in the United States this risk is usually transferred to the private concessionaire. The aim is to explore which lessons can be learnt from both models than might be useful for other countries. On the other hand, the paper also analyzes why the Spanish companies have been so successful in winning PPP contracts in North America during the past decade. Contrary to the Latin American PPP market, the Spanish companies do not have any cultural advantage in the case of the United States and Canada. Arguably, some relevant reasons for the success of the Spanish groups are their extensive experience in PPP projects (that dates back to the late 1960s in some cases), their high technical level (that allows them to be aggressive in their bids), and their good position and track-record in the financial markets. The article’s empirical base consists of data provided by official sources of both countries as well as information collected through face-to-face interviews with public and private representatives of the stakeholders participating in some of the PPP schemes. Interviewees include private project managers of the concessionaires, representatives of banks involved as financiers in the projects, and experts in the PPP industry with close knowledge of the North American market. Unstructured in-depth interviews have been adopted as a means of investigation for this study because of its powers to achieve honest and robust responses and to ensure realism in the collection of an overall impression of stakeholders’ perspectives.

Keywords: PPP, concession, infrastructure, construction

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Authors: Godwin Chigozie Okpara, William Chimee Nwaoha

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The paper set out to stress on how financial inclusion index could be calculated and also investigated the impact of inclusive finance on inclusive growth in an emerging economy. In the light of these objectives, chi-wins method was used to calculate indexes of financial inclusion while co-integration and error correction model were used for evaluation of the impact of financial inclusion on inclusive growth. The result of the analysis revealed that financial inclusion while having a long-run relationship with GDP growth is an insignificant function of the growth of the economy. The speed of adjustment is correctly signed and significant. On the basis of these results, the researchers called for tireless efforts of government and banking sector in promoting financial inclusion in developing countries.

Keywords: chi-wins index, co-integration, error correction model, financial inclusion

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Authors: Olubunmi S. Shittu, Olufemi J. Ayodele, Augustus O. A. Ilori, Abidemi O. Filani, Adetola T. Afuye

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Indiscriminate refuse dumping in and around Ado-Ekiti combined with improper management of few available dumpsites, such as Ilokun dumpsite, posed the threat of heavy metals pollution in the surrounding soils and underground water that needs assessment using pollution indices. Surface soils (0-15 cm) were taken from the centre of Ilokun dumpsite (0 m) and environs at different directions and distances during the dry and wet seasons, as well as a background sample at 1000 m away, adjacent to the dumpsite at Ilokun, Ado-Ekiti, Nigeria. The concentration of heavy metals used to calculate the pollution indices for the soils were determined using Atomic Adsorption Spectrophotometer. The soils recorded high concentrations of all the heavy metals above the background concentrations irrespective of the season with highest concentrations at the 0 m except Ni and Fe at 50 m during the dry and wet season, respectively. The heavy metals concentration were in the order of Ni > Mn > Pb > Cr > Cu > Cd > Fe during the dry season, and Fe > Cr > Cu > Pb > Ni > Cd > Mn during the wet season. Using the Contamination Factor (CF), the soils were classified to be moderately contaminated with Cd and Fe to very high contamination with other metals during the dry season and low Cd contamination (0.87), moderate contamination with Fe, Pb, Mn and Ni and very high contamination with Cr and Cu during the wet season. At both seasons, the Pollution Load Index (PLI) indicates the soils to be generally polluted with heavy metals and the Geoaccumulation Index (I_geo) calculated shown the soils to be in unpolluted to moderately polluted levels. Enrichment Factor (EF) implied the soils to be deficiently enriched with all the heavy metals except Cr (7.90) and Cu (6.42) that were at significantly enrichment levels during the wet season. Modified Degree of Contamination (mC_d) recorded, indicated the soils to be of very high to extremely high degree of contamination during the dry season and moderate degree of contamination during the wet season except 0 m with high degree of contamination. The concentration of heavy metals in the soils combined with some of the pollution indices indicated the soils in and around the Ilokun Dumpsite are being polluted with heavy metals from anthropogenic sources constituted by the indiscriminate refuse dumping.

Keywords: contamination factor, enrichment factor, geoaccumulation index, modified degree of contamination, pollution load index

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Authors: Ebru Ozgur Guler, Huseyin Guler, Sera Sanli

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Social Progress Index (SPI) whose fundamentals have been thrown in the World Economy Forum is an index which aims to form a systematic basis for guiding strategy for inclusive growth which requires achieving both economic and social progress. In this research, it has been aimed to determine the relations among “Basic Human Needs” (BHN) (including four variables of ‘Nutrition and Basic Medical Care’, ‘Water and Sanitation’, ‘Shelter’ and ‘Personal Safety’) and “Opportunity” (OPT) (that is composed of ‘Personal Rights’, ‘Personal Freedom and Choice’, ‘Tolerance and Inclusion’, and ‘Access to Advanced Education’ components) dimensions of 2016 SPI for 138 countries which take place in the website of Social Progress Imperative by carrying out canonical correlation analysis (CCA) which is a data reduction technique that operates in a way to maximize the correlation between two variable sets. In the interpretation of results, the first pair of canonical variates pointing to the highest canonical correlation has been taken into account. The first canonical correlation coefficient has been found as 0.880 indicating to the high relationship between BHN and OPT variable sets. Wilk’s Lambda statistic has revealed that an overall effect of 0.809 is highly large for the full model in order to be counted as statistically significant (with a p-value of 0.000). According to the standardized canonical coefficients, the largest contribution to BHN set of variables has come from ‘shelter’ variable. The most effective variable in OPT set has been detected to be ‘access to advanced education’. Findings based on canonical loadings have also confirmed these results with respect to the contributions to the first canonical variates. When canonical cross loadings (structure coefficients) are examined, for the first pair of canonical variates, the largest contributions have been provided by ‘shelter’ and ‘access to advanced education’ variables. Since the signs for structure coefficients have been found to be negative for all variables; all OPT set of variables are positively related to all of the BHN set of variables. In case canonical communality coefficients which are the sum of the squares of structure coefficients across all interpretable functions are taken as the basis; amongst all variables, ‘personal rights’ and ‘tolerance and inclusion’ variables can be said not to be useful in the model with 0.318721 and 0.341722 coefficients respectively. On the other hand, while redundancy index for BHN set has been found to be 0.615; OPT set has a lower redundancy index with 0.475. High redundancy implies high ability for predictability. The proportion of the total variation in BHN set of variables that is explained by all of the opposite canonical variates has been calculated as 63% and finally, the proportion of the total variation in OPT set that is explained by all of the canonical variables in BHN set has been determined as 50.4% and a large part of this proportion belongs to the first pair. The results suggest that there is a high and statistically significant relationship between BHN and OPT. This relationship is generally accounted by ‘shelter’ and ‘access to advanced education’.

Keywords: canonical communality coefficient, canonical correlation analysis, redundancy index, social progress index

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Authors: Nunu Nakashidze, Shota Lominadze, Darejan Jashi

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Citrus culture used to be one of the leading fields of sub-tropical agriculture in Georgia and especially in Adjara region, but the citrus production has been significantly decreased in recent years due to deterioration of quality index of fruit and reduction of sale markets. The fact severely affected both the economy of Republic and population. Intensive technologies of citrus fruit production are widely implemented in the world practices, which include the following: variety of species, consumption of fertilizers and chemicals, proper use of fruit production and etc. However working on technologies which ensure getting of high quality and plentiful product is very much important if taking into consideration modern, global ecological problems. Using of bio-preparations for plant nourishment is considered as one of the activities. The present work discusses liquid organic fertilizer 'Biorag' produced in Georgia and influence of its growth stimulation (Gakhokidze N1, N2, N3) on agrochemical index of soils and mineral composition of fruit of Citrus Unshiu orchards cultivated in the sub-tropical zone of Black Sea in Adjara region. It was ascertained that liquid organic fertilizers used in the orchard of citrus 'Unshiu' and influence of growth stimulators on the quality index of fruit are not clearly shown in comparison with control one. A small priority is noticed in case of growth stimulators. In conditions of red soils, liquid organic fertilizers and growth stimulators added in the nutrition of the citrus more or less influence the dry material of fruit and the composition of ash and nutrition elements. Agro-chemical index of the soil, except exchange acidity, is somehow enlarged which is one of the positive results in this case.

Keywords: growth stimulator, liquid fertilizer, plant, fruit, soil

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