Search results for: fuzzy multiple attribute decision method

Authors: Jaime A. Palma-Mendoza

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A supply chain consists of different processes and when conducting supply chain re-design is necessary to identify the relevant processes and select a target for re-design. A solution was developed which consists to identify first the relevant processes using the Supply Chain Operations Reference (SCOR) model, then to use Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) for target process selection. An application was conducted in an Airline MRO supply chain re-design project which shows this combination can clearly aid the identification of relevant supply chain processes and the selection of a target process for re-design.

Keywords: decision support systems, multiple criteria analysis, supply chain management

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Authors: Lara Dutil-Fafard, Caroline Rhéaume, Patrick Archambault, Daniel Lafond, Neal W. Pollock

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Improving resources for medical autonomy of astronauts in prolonged space missions, such as a Mars mission, requires not only technology development, but also decision-making support systems. The Advanced Crew Medical System - Medical Condition Requirements study, funded by the Canadian Space Agency, aimed to create knowledge content and a scenario-based query capability to support medical autonomy of astronauts. The key objective of this study was to create a prototype tool for identifying medical infrastructure requirements in terms of medical knowledge, skills and materials. A multicriteria decision-making method was used to prioritize the highest risk medical events anticipated in a long-term space mission. Starting with those medical conditions, event sequence diagrams (ESDs) were created in the form of decision trees where the entry point is the diagnosis and the end points are the predicted outcomes (full recovery, partial recovery, or death/severe incapacitation). The ESD formalism was adapted to characterize and compare possible outcomes of medical conditions as a function of available medical knowledge, skills, and supplies in a given mission scenario. An extensive literature review was performed and summarized in a medical condition database. A PostgreSQL relational database was created to allow query-based evaluation of health outcome metrics with different medical infrastructure scenarios. Critical decision points, skill and medical supply requirements, and probable health outcomes were compared across chosen scenarios. The three medical conditions with the highest risk rank were acute coronary syndrome, sepsis, and stroke. Our efforts demonstrate the utility of this approach and provide insight into the effort required to develop appropriate content for the range of medical conditions that may arise.

Keywords: decision support system, event-sequence diagram, exploration mission, medical autonomy, scenario-based queries, space medicine

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Authors: Min Hae Song, Jooyong Park

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Even though assessment using information and communication technology will most likely lead the future of educational assessment, there is little research on this topic. Computerized assessment will not only cut costs but also measure students' performance in ways not possible before. In this context, this study introduces a tool which can overcome the problems of multiple choice tests. Multiple-choice tests (MC) are efficient in automatic grading, however structural problems of multiple-choice tests allow students to find the correct answer from options even though they do not know the answer. A computerized modified multiple-choice testing system (CMMT) was developed using the interactivity of computers, that presents questions first, and options later for a short time when the student requests for them. This study was conducted to find out whether penalizing for wrong answers in CMMT could lower random guessing. In this study, we checked whether students knew the answers by having them respond to the short-answer tests before choosing the given options in CMMT or MC format. Ninety-four students were tested with the directions that they will be penalized for wrong answers, but not for no response. There were 4 experimental conditions: two conditions of high or low percentage of penalizing, each in traditional multiple-choice or CMMT format. In the low penalty condition, the penalty rate was the probability of getting the correct answer by random guessing. In the high penalty condition, students were penalized at twice the percentage of the low penalty condition. The results showed that the number of no response was significantly higher for the CMMT format and the number of random guesses was significantly lower for the CMMT format. There were no significant between the two penalty conditions. This result may be due to the fact that the actual score difference between the two conditions was too small. In the discussion, the possibility of applying CMMT format tests while penalizing wrong answers in actual testing settings was addressed.

Keywords: computerized modified multiple choice test format, multiple-choice test format, penalizing, test format

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Authors: Jong Woo Kim, Go Bong Choi, Sang Hwan Son, Dae Shik Kim, Jung Chul Suh, Jong Min Lee

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The Markov Decision Process (MDP) based methodology is implemented in order to establish the optimal schedule which minimizes the cost. Formulation of MDP problem is presented using the information about the current state of pipe, improvement cost, failure cost and pipe deterioration model. The objective function and detailed algorithm of dynamic programming (DP) are modified due to the difficulty of implementing the conventional DP approaches. The optimal schedule derived from suggested model is compared to several policies via Monte Carlo simulation. Validity of the solution and improvement in computational time are proved.

Keywords: Markov decision processes, dynamic programming, Monte Carlo simulation, periodic replacement, Weibull distribution

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Authors: Rendong Cai, Bei Peng, Yanping Dong

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In risk decision making, individuals are found to be susceptible to 'frames': people tend to be risk averse when the choice is described in terms of potential 'gains' (gain frame), whereas they tend to be risk seeking when the same choice is described in terms of potential 'losses' (loss frame); this effect is termed the framing effect. The framing effect has been well documented and some studies even find a developmental reversal in the framing effect: The more experience an individual has in a certain field, the easier for him to be influenced by the frame relevant to the field, resulting in greater decision inconsistency. Recent studies reported that using a foreign language can reduce the framing effect. However, it is not clear whether foreign language use can overcome the developmental reversal in the framing effect. The present study investigated three potential factors that may influence the developmental reversal in the framing effect: specialized knowledge of the participants, the language in which the problem is presented, and the types of problems. The present study examined the decision making behavior of 188 Chinese-English bilinguals who majored in Finance, with a group of 277 English majors as the control group. They were asked to solve a financial problem (experimental condition) and a life problem (control condition). Each problem was presented in one of the following four versions: native language-gain frame, foreign language-gain frame, native language-loss frame, and foreign language-loss frame. Results revealed that for the life problem, under the native condition, both groups were affected by the frame; but under the foreign condition, this framing effect disappeared for the financial majors. This confirmed that foreign language use modulates framing effects in general decision making, which served as an effective baseline. For the financial problem, under the native condition, only the financial major was observed to be influenced by the frame, which was a developmental reversal; under the foreign condition, however, this framing effect disappeared. The results provide further empirical evidence for the universal of the developmental reversal in risky decision making. More importantly, the results suggest that using a foreign language can overcome such reversal, which has implications for the reduction of decision biases in professionals. The findings also shed new light on the complex interaction between general decision-making and bilingualism.

Keywords: the foreign language effect, developmental reversals, the framing effect, bilingualism

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Authors: Sherif M. Hafez, Remon F. Aziz, May S. A. Elalim

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Project managers today rely on scheduling tools based on the Critical Path Method (CPM) to determine the overall project duration and the activities’ float times which lead to greater efficiency in planning and control of projects. CPM was useful for scheduling construction projects, but researchers had highlighted a number of serious drawbacks that limit its use as a decision support tool and lacks the ability to clearly record and represent detailed information. This paper discusses the drawbacks of CPM as a scheduling technique and presents a modified critical path method (CPM) model which is called critical path segments (CPS). The CPS scheduling mechanism addresses the problems of CPM in three ways: decomposing the activity duration of separated but connected time segments; all relationships among activities are converted into finish–to–start relationship; and analysis and calculations are made with forward path. Sample cases are included to illustrate the shortages in CPM, CPS full analysis and calculations are explained in details, and how schedules can be handled better with the CPS technique.

Keywords: construction management, scheduling, critical path method, critical path segments, forward pass, float, project control

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Authors: Ranjeet Sable, Mahotsavi Patil, Aadesh Nimbalkar, Prajakta Palaskar, Ritu Sagar

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The exact amount of water used by various crops in different climatic conditions is necessary to step for design, planning, and management of irrigation schemes, water resources, scheduling of irrigation systems. Evaporation and transpiration are combinable called as evapotranspiration. Water loss from trees during photosynthesis is called as transpiration and when water gets converted into gaseous state is called evaporation. For calculation of correct evapotranspiration, we have to choose the method in such way that is should be suitable and require minimum climatic data also it should be applicable for wide range of climatic conditions. In hydrology, there are multiple correlations and regression is generally used to develop relationships between three or more hydrological variables by knowing the dependence between them. This research work includes the study of various methods for calculation of evapotranspiration and selects reasonable and suitable one Pune region (Maharashtra state). As field methods are very costly, time-consuming and not give appropriate results if the suitable climate is not maintained. Observation recorded at Pune metrological stations are used to calculate evapotranspiration with the help of Radiation Method (RAD), Modified Penman Method (MPM), Thornthwaite Method (THW), Blaney-Criddle (BCL), Christiansen Equation (CNM), Hargreaves Method (HGM), from which Hargreaves and Thornthwaite are temperature based methods. Performance of all these methods are compared with Modified Penman method and method which showing less variation with standard Modified Penman method (MPM) is selected as the suitable one. Evapotranspiration values are estimated on a monthly basis. Comparative analysis in this research used for selection for raw data-dependent methods in case of missing data.

Keywords: Blaney-Criddle, Christiansen equation evapotranspiration, Hargreaves method, precipitations, Penman method, water use efficiency

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Authors: Kimberley K. Whyte-Jones

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Public participation may improve the quality of environmental management decisions. However, the quality of such a decision is strongly dependent on the quality of the process that leads to it. In order to ensure an effective and efficient process, key features of best practice in participation should be carefully observed; this would also combat disillusionment of citizens, decision-makers and practitioners. The overarching aim of this study is to determine what constitutes an effective public participation process relevant to the Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada context, and to discover whether the public participation process that led to the 2014-2024 Provincial Sustainable Forest Management Strategy (PSFMS) met best practices criteria. The research design uses an exploratory case study strategy to consider a specific participatory process in environmental decision-making in Newfoundland and Labrador. Data collection methods include formal semi-structured interviews and the review of secondary data sources. The results of this study will determine the validity of a specific public participation best practice framework. The findings will be useful for informing citizen participation processes in general and will deduce best practices in public participation in environmental management in the province. The study is, therefore, meaningful for guiding future policies and practices in the management of forest resources in the province of Newfoundland and Labrador, and will help in filling a noticeable gap in research compiling best practices for environmentally related public participation processes.

Keywords: best practices, environmental decision-making, forest management, public participation

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Authors: Revoti Prasad Bora, Nikita Katyal

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Promotion is a key element in the retail business. Thus, analysis of promotions to quantify their effectiveness in terms of Revenue and/or Margin is an essential activity in the retail industry. However, measuring the sales/revenue uplift is based on estimations, as the actual sales/revenue without the promotion is not present. Further, the presence of Halo and Cannibalization in a multiple parallel promotions’ scenario complicates the problem. Calculating Baseline by considering inter-brand/competitor items or using Halo and Cannibalization's impact on Revenue calculations by considering Baseline as an interpretation of items’ unit sales in neighboring nonpromotional weeks individually may not capture the overall Revenue uplift in the case of multiple parallel promotions. Hence, this paper proposes a Machine Learning based method for calculating the Revenue uplift by considering the Halo and Cannibalization impact on the Baseline and the Revenue. In the first section of the proposed methodology, Baseline of an item is calculated by incorporating the impact of the promotions on its related items. In the later section, the Revenue of an item is calculated by considering both Halo and Cannibalization impacts. Hence, this methodology enables correct calculation of the overall Revenue uplift due a given promotion.

Keywords: Halo, Cannibalization, promotion, Baseline, temporary price reduction, retail, elasticity, cross price elasticity, machine learning, random forest, linear regression

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Authors: Lenka Krsnakova, Petr Jirsak

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Prior research on facility location in supply chain is mostly focused on improvement of mathematical models. It is due to the fact that supply chain design has been for the long time the area of operational research that underscores mainly quantitative criteria. Qualitative criteria are still highly neglected within the supply chain design research. Facility location in the supply chain has become multi-criteria decision-making problem rather than single criteria decision due to changes of market conditions. Thus, both qualitative and quantitative criteria have to be included in the decision making process. The aim of this study is to emphasize the importance of qualitative criteria as key parameters of relevant mathematical models. We examine which criteria are taken into consideration when Czech companies decide about their facility location. A literature review on criteria being used in facility location decision making process creates a theoretical background for the study. The data collection was conducted through questionnaire survey. Questionnaire was sent to manufacturing and business companies of all sizes (small, medium and large enterprises) with the representation in the Czech Republic within following sectors: automotive, toys, clothing industry, electronics and pharmaceutical industry. Comparison of which criteria prevail in the current research and which are considered important by companies in the Czech Republic is made. Despite the number of articles focused on supply chain design, only minority of them consider qualitative criteria and rarely process supply chain design as a multi-criteria decision making problem. Preliminary results of the questionnaire survey outlines that companies in the Czech Republic see the qualitative criteria and their impact on facility location decision as crucial. Qualitative criteria as company strategy, quality of working environment or future development expectations are confirmed to be considered by Czech companies. This study confirms that the qualitative criteria can significantly influence whether a particular location could or could not be right place for a logistic facility. The research has two major limitations: researchers who focus on improving of mathematical models mostly do not mention criteria that enter the model. Czech supply chain managers selected important criteria from the group of 18 available criteria and assign them importance weights. It does not necessarily mean that these criteria were taken into consideration when the last facility location was chosen, but how they perceive that today. Since the study confirmed the necessity of future research on how qualitative criteria influence decision making process about facility location, the authors have already started in-depth interviews with participating companies to reveal how the inclusion of qualitative criteria into decision making process about facility location influence the company´s performance.

Keywords: criteria influencing facility location, Czech Republic, facility location decision-making, qualitative criteria

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Authors: Aliaksei Patsekha, Michael Hohenberger, Harald Raupenstrauch

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An effective emergency response to accidents with chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear, or explosive materials (CBRNE) that represent highly dynamic situations needs immediate actions within limited time, information and resources. The aim of the study is to provide the foundation for division of unsafe area into risk zones according to the impact of hazardous parameters (heat radiation, thermal dose, overpressure, chemical concentrations). A decision on the boundary values for three risk zones is based on the vulnerability analysis that covered a variety of accident scenarios containing the release of a toxic or flammable substance which either evaporates, ignites and/or explodes. Critical values are selected for the boundary definition of the Red, Orange and Yellow risk zones upon the examination of harmful effects that are likely to cause injuries of varying severity to people and different levels of damage to structures. The obtained results provide the basis for creating a comprehensive real-time risk map for a decision support at CBRNE operations.

Keywords: boundary values, CBRNE threats, decision making process, hazardous effects, vulnerability analysis, risk zones

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Authors: Mona Ghafouri-Azar, Sara Diamond, Jeremy Bowes, Grace Yuan, Aimee Burnett, Michelle Wyndham-West, Sara Wagner, Anand Pariyarath

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Transportation is the fastest growing source of greenhouse gas emissions worldwide. In Canada, it is responsible for 23% of total CO2emissions from fuel combustion, and emissions from the transportation sector are the second largest source of emissions after the oil and gas sector. Currently, most Canadian public transportation systems rely on buses that operateon fossil fuels.Canada is currently investing billions of dollars to replacediesel buses with electric busesas this isperceived to have a significant impact on climate mitigation. This paper focuses on the possible impacts of zero emission buses (ZEB) on sustainable development, considering three dimensions of sustainability; environmental quality, economic growth, and social development.A sustainable transportation system is one that is safe, affordable, accessible, efficient, and resilient and that contributes minimal emissions of carbon and other pollutants.To enable implementation of these goals, relevant indicators were selected and defined that measure progress towards a sustainable transportation system. These were drawn from Canadian and international examples. Studies compare different European cities in terms of development, sustainability, and infrastructures, by using transport performance indicators. A Normalized Transport Sustainability index measures and compares policies in different urban areas and allows fine-tuning of policies. Analysts use a number ofmethods for sustainable analysis, like cost-benefit analysis (CBA) toassess economic benefit, life-cycle assessment (LCA) to assess social, economic, and environment factors and goals, and multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) analysis which can comparediffering stakeholder preferences.A multi criteria decision making approach is an appropriate methodology to plan and evaluate sustainable transit development and to provide insights and meaningful information for decision makers and transit agencies. It is essential to develop a system thataggregates specific discrete indices to assess the sustainability of transportation systems.Theseprioritize indicators appropriate for the differentCanadian transit system agencies and theirpreferences and requirements. This studywill develop an integrating index that alliesexistingdiscrete indexes to supporta reliable comparison between the current transportation system (diesel buses) and the new ZEB system emerging in Canada. As a first step, theindexes for each category are selected, and the index matrix constructed. Second, the selected indicators arenormalized to remove anyinconsistency between them. Next, the normalized matrix isweighted based on the relative importance of each index to the main domains of sustainability using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) method. This is accomplished through expert judgement around the relative importance of different attributes with respect to the goals through apairwise comparison matrix. The considerationof multiple environmental, economic, and social factors (including equity and health) is integrated intoa sustainable transit planning index (STPI) which supportsrealistic ZEB implementation in Canada and beyond and is useful to different stakeholders, agencies, and ministries.

Keywords: zero emission buses, sustainability, sustainable transit, transportation, analytical hierarchy process, environment, economy, social

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Authors: Sarah Müller-Sägebrecht

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Today’s volatile environment challenges executives to make the right strategic decisions to gain sustainable success. Entrepreneurship scholars postulate mainly positive effects of environmental changes on entrepreneurship behavior, such as developing new business opportunities, promoting ingenuity, and the satisfaction of resource voids. A strategic solution approach to overcome threatening environmental changes and catch new business opportunities is business model innovation (BMI). Although this research stream has gained further importance in the last decade, BMI research is still insufficient. Especially BMI barriers, such as inefficient strategic decision-making processes, need to be identified. Strategic decisions strongly impact organizational future and are, therefore, usually made in groups. Although groups draw on a more extensive information base than single individuals, group-interaction effects can influence the decision-making process - in a favorable but also unfavorable way. Decisions are characterized by uncertainty and risk, whereby their intensity is perceived individually differently. Individual risk-willingness influences which option humans choose. The special nature of strategic decisions, such as in BMI processes, is that these decisions are not made individually but in groups due to their high organizational scope. These groups consist of different personalities whose individual risk-willingness can vary considerably. It is known from group decision theory that these individuals influence each other, observable in different group-interaction effects. The following research questions arise: i) Which impact has the individual risk-willingness on BMI decisions? And ii) how do group interaction effects impact BMI decisions? After conducting 26 in-depth interviews with executives from the manufacturing industry, the applied Gioia methodology reveals the following results: i) Risk-averse decision-makers have an increased need to be guided by facts. The more information available to them, the lower they perceive uncertainty and the more willing they are to pursue a specific decision option. However, the results also show that social interaction does not change the individual risk-willingness in the decision-making process. ii) Generally, it could be observed that during BMI decisions, group interaction is primarily beneficial to increase the group’s information base for making good decisions, less than for social interaction. Further, decision-makers mainly focus on information available to all decision-makers in the team but less on personal knowledge. This work contributes to strategic decision-making literature twofold. First, it gives insights into how group-interaction effects influence an organization’s strategic BMI decision-making. Second, it enriches risk-management research by highlighting how individual risk-willingness impacts organizational strategic decision-making. To date, it was known in BMI research that risk aversion would be an internal BMI barrier. However, with this study, it becomes clear that it is not risk aversion that inhibits BMI. Instead, the lack of information prevents risk-averse decision-makers from choosing a riskier option. Simultaneously, results show that risk-averse decision-makers are not easily carried away by the higher risk-willingness of their team members. Instead, they use social interaction to gather missing information. Therefore, executives need to provide sufficient information to all decision-makers to catch promising business opportunities.

Keywords: business model innovation, decision-making, group biases, group decisions, group-interaction effects, risk-willingness

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Authors: Chen Jun-Hong, He Pu, Tao Wen-Quan

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Proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) is the most promising future energy source owing to its low operating temperature, high energy efficiency, high power density, and environmental friendliness. In this paper, a comprehensive PEMFC system control-oriented model is developed in the Matlab/Simulink environment, which includes the hydrogen supply subsystem, air supply subsystem, and thermal management subsystem. Besides, Improved Artificial Bee Colony (IABC) is used in the parameter identification of PEMFC semi-empirical equations, making the maximum relative error between simulation data and the experimental data less than 0.4%. Operation temperature is essential for PEMFC, both high and low temperatures are disadvantageous. In the thermal management subsystem, water pump and fan are both controlled with the PID controller to maintain the appreciate operation temperature of PEMFC for the requirements of safe and efficient operation. To improve the control effect further, fuzzy control is introduced to optimize the PID controller of the pump, and the Radial Basis Function (RBF) neural network is introduced to optimize the PID controller of the fan. The results demonstrate that Fuzzy-PID and RBF-PID can achieve a better control effect with 22.66% decrease in Integral Absolute Error Criterion (IAE) of T_st (Temperature of PEMFC) and 77.56% decrease in IAE of T_in (Temperature of inlet cooling water) compared with traditional PID. In the end, a novel thermal management structure is proposed, which uses the cooling air passing through the main radiator to continue cooling the secondary radiator. In this thermal management structure, the parasitic power dissipation can be reduced by 69.94%, and the control effect can be improved with a 52.88% decrease in IAE of T_in under the same controller.

Keywords: PEMFC system, parameter identification, temperature control, Fuzzy-PID, RBF-PID, parasitic power

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Authors: A. Clementking, C. Jothi Venkateswaran

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Mathematical and computational functionalities such as descriptive mining, optimization, and predictions are espoused to resolve natural resource planning. The water quality prediction and its attributes influence determinations are adopted optimization techniques. The water properties are tainted while merging water resource one with another. This work aimed to predict influencing water resource distribution connectivity in accordance to water quality and sediment using an innovative proposed master-slave neural network back-propagation model. The experiment results are arrived through collecting water quality attributes, computation of water quality index, design and development of neural network model to determine water quality and sediment, master–slave back propagation neural network back-propagation model to determine variations on water quality and sediment attributes between the water resources and the recommendation for connectivity. The homogeneous and parallel biochemical reactions are influences water quality and sediment while distributing water from one location to another. Therefore, an innovative master-slave neural network model [M (9:9:2)::S(9:9:2)] designed and developed to predict the attribute variations. The result of training dataset given as an input to master model and its maximum weights are assigned as an input to the slave model to predict the water quality. The developed master-slave model is predicted physicochemical attributes weight variations for 85 % to 90% of water quality as a target values.The sediment level variations also predicated from 0.01 to 0.05% of each water quality percentage. The model produced the significant variations on physiochemical attribute weights. According to the predicated experimental weight variation on training data set, effective recommendations are made to connect different resources.

Keywords: master-slave back propagation neural network model(MSBPNNM), water quality analysis, multivariate analysis, environmental mining

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Authors: Yang Cui, Yong Qiang Chen

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An appropriate project delivery system (PDS) is crucial to the success of a construction project. Case-based reasoning (CBR) is a useful support for PDS selection. However, the traditional CBR approach represents cases as attribute-value vectors without taking relations among attributes into consideration, and could not calculate the similarity when the structures of cases are not strictly same. Therefore, this paper solves this problem by adopting the relational case-based reasoning (RCBR) approach for PDS selection, considering both the structural similarity and feature similarity. To develop the feature terms of the construction projects, the criteria and factors governing PDS selection process are first identified. Then, feature terms for the construction projects are developed. Finally, the mechanism of similarity calculation and a case study indicate how RCBR works for PDS selection. The adoption of RCBR in PDS selection expands the scope of application of traditional CBR method and improves the accuracy of the PDS selection system.

Keywords: relational cased-based reasoning, case-based reasoning, project delivery system, PDS selection

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Authors: Sławomir Lasota, Tomasz Kajdanowicz

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This study explores the development of human-centric decision support systems tailored for Industry 5.0 production paradigms. By leveraging machine learning-based recommender systems, the proposed solution optimizes real-time production settings, accounting for both machine parameters and individual operator preferences. Integrating key performance indicators (KPIs) such as Overall Equipment Effectiveness (OEE) ensures sector-independent applicability and eco-efficiency. This paper also investigates how the ”Tweeting Factory” framework enhances communication between system components, facilitating adaptive and human-aware process improvements. Experimental results demonstrate the potential for increased operational efficiency and reduced resource consumption, paving the way for autonomous production systems.

Keywords: decision support systems, industry 5.0, machine learning, human-centric

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Authors: Navodita Mishra, T. J. Kamalanabhan

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The primary purpose of this study was to identify the antecedents of sport commitment among cricket players and to understand demographic variables that may impact these factors. Commitment towards one’s sport play a crucial role in determining discipline and efforts of the player. Moreover, demographic variables would seem to play an important role in determining which factors or predictors have the greatest impact on commitment level. This study hypothesized the effect of demographic factors on sport commitment among cricket players. It attempts to examine the extent to which demographic factors can differentially motivate players to exhibit commitment towards their respective sport. Questionnaire survey method was adopted using purposive sampling technique. Using Multiple Regression, ANOVA and t-test, the hypotheses were tested based on a sample of 350 players from Cricket Academy. Our main results from the multivariate analysis indicated that (1) enjoyment and leadership of coach and peer affect the level of commitment to a greater extent whereas (2) personal investment is a significant predictor of commitment among rural background players Moreover, level of sport commitment among players is positively related to household income, the rural background players participate in sports to a greater extent than the urban players, there is no evidence of regional differentials in commitment but age differences (i.e. U-19 vs. U-25) play an important role in the decision to continue the participation in sports.

Keywords: individual sport commitment, social factors, demographic factors, cricket

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Authors: Abdullah Alenezi, Mane Alsudrawi, Rafat Misak

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Kuwait is faced with a potentially wide and harmful range of both natural and anthropogenic hazardous events such as dust storms, floods, fires, nuclear accidents, earthquakes, oil spills, tsunamis and other disasters. For Kuwait can be highly vulnerable to these complex environmental risks, an up-to-date and in-depth understanding of their typology, genesis, and impact on the Kuwaiti society is needed. Adequate anticipation and management of environmental crises further require a comprehensive system of decision support to the benefit of decision makers to further bridge the gap between (technical) risk understanding and public action. For that purpose, the Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research (KISR), intends to establish a decision support center for management of the environmental crisis in Kuwait. The center will support policy makers, stakeholders and national committees with technical information that helps them efficiently and effectively assess, monitor to manage environmental disasters using decision support tools. These tools will build on state of the art quantification and visualization techniques, such as remote sensing information, Geographical Information Systems (GIS), simulation and prediction models, early warning systems, etc. The center is conceived as a central facility which will be designed, operated and managed by KISR in coordination with national authorities and decision makers of the country. Our vision is that by 2035 the center will be recognized as a leading national source of scientific advice on national risk management in Kuwait and build unity of effort among Kuwaiti’s institutions, government agencies, public and private organizations through provision and sharing of information. The project team now focuses on capacity building through upgrading some KISR facilities manpower development, build strong collaboration with international alliance.

Keywords: decision support, environment, hazard, Kuwait

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Authors: Afy Syahidan ACHMAD, Astin NURDIANA, SURYANTINI

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In volcanic arc environment we can find multiple volcanic deposits which overlapped with another volcanic deposit so it will complicates source and distribution determination. This problem getting more difficult when we can not trace any deposit border evidences in field especially in high vegetation volcanic area, or overlapped deposit with same characteristics. Main purpose of this study is to solve complex volcanostratigraphy mapping problems trough ridge, valley, and river continuity. This method application carried out in Old Sunda Volcanic, West Java, Indonesia. Using 1:100.000 and 1:50.000 topographic map, and regional geology map, old sunda volcanic deposit was differentiated in regional level and detail level. Final product of this method is volcanostratigraphy unit determination in reconnaissance stage to simplify mapping process.

Keywords: volcanostratigraphy, study, method, volcanic deposit

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Authors: D. Songpol, K. Taweesak, T. Sookyuen

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A social enterprise is an organization that operates commercial business as a source of income with the aim of addressing social and environmental issues. Though it is clear that this kind of organization will benefit society and environment but in practice, it is found that most of social enterprises’ goals cannot be achieved. The most success factors of social enterprises usually rely on individual characteristics of entrepreneurs, especially in educational business. This study aims to find out the magnitude of influence from the components of entrepreneur competencies to social enterprises in education. There are developmental models of research demonstrating that knowledge, skills and attributes affect the success of social enterprises in term of sustainability, social opportunities and innovation leadership. The 5-scale questionnaire was used to collect data from the social entrepreneurs in education who operates in the South East Asian region of 135 samples and then processed by the methods of structural equation models. The results show that the competency of entrepreneurs in attributes has the greatest impact on the success of social enterprises while the skills and knowledge have respectively impact on the social enterprises’ success as well. The reason why attributes of entrepreneurs have the greatest impact on social enterprise success is because, social enterprise is an organization that does not motivate or provide attractive financial incentives to the entrepreneur. Entrepreneurs, who succeed in developing their organizations, therefore need attribute factor higher than normal entrepreneurs, especially those in education sector that have somewhat few human resources to operate their businesses. More importantly, attribute’s traits such as entrepreneurial passion, self-efficacy, entrepreneurial identity and, innovativeness and perseverance will significantly affect the ideology and tolerance of the entrepreneurs once facing the problem in doing business. In conclusion, the education social enterprise would be successful depending on the performance of the entrepreneurs which derives from higher attributes competency.

Keywords: education, entrepreneur competencies, social enterprise, South East Asia

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Authors: Jihye Jeon

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This paper analyzes the conceptual framework of three statistical methods, multiple regression, path analysis, and structural equation models. When establishing research model of the statistical modeling of complex social phenomenon, it is important to know the strengths and limitations of three statistical models. This study explored the character, strength, and limitation of each modeling and suggested some strategies for accurate explaining or predicting the causal relationships among variables. Especially, on the studying of depression or mental health, the common mistakes of research modeling were discussed.

Keywords: multiple regression, path analysis, structural equation models, statistical modeling, social and psychological phenomenon

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Authors: David de Oliveira Costa, Miguel Ângelo Lellis Moreira, Carlos Francisco Simões Gomes, Daniel Augusto de Moura Pereira, Marcos dos Santos

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Strategic management is a fundamental process for global companies that intend to remain competitive in an increasingly dynamic and complex market. To do so, it is necessary to maintain alignment with their principles and values. The Balanced Scorecard (BSC) proposes to ensure that the overall business performance is based on different perspectives (financial, customer, internal processes, and learning and growth). However, relying solely on the BSC may not be enough to ensure the success of strategic management. It is essential that companies also evaluate and prioritize strategic projects that need to be implemented to ensure they are aligned with the business vision and contribute to achieving established goals and objectives. In this context, the proposition involves the incorporation of the SAPEVO-M multicriteria method to indicate the degree of relevance between different perspectives. Thus, the strategic objectives linked to these perspectives have greater weight in the classification of structural projects. Additionally, it is proposed to apply the concept of the Impact & Probability Matrix (I&PM) to structure and ensure that strategic projects are evaluated according to their relevance and impact on the business. By structuring the business's strategic management in this way, alignment and prioritization of projects and actions related to strategic planning are ensured. This ensures that resources are directed towards the most relevant and impactful initiatives. Therefore, the objective of this article is to present the proposal for integrating the BSC methodology, the SAPEVO-M multicriteria method, and the prioritization matrix to establish a concrete weighting of strategic planning and obtain coherence in defining strategic projects aligned with the business vision. This ensures a robust decision-making support process.

Keywords: MCDA process, prioritization problematic, corporate strategy, multicriteria method

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Authors: Muhammad Jawwad, Riffat Iqbal

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The Socratic method, also known as the dialectical method and elenctic method, has significant relevance in the contemporary educational system. It can be incorporated into modern-day educational systems theoretically as well as practically. Being interactive and dialogue-based in nature, this teaching approach is followed by critical thinking and innovation. The pragmatic value of the Dialectical Method has been discussed in this article, and the limitations of the Socratic method have also been highlighted. The interactive Method of Socrates can be used in many subjects for students of different grades. The Limitations and delimitations of the Method have also been discussed for its proper implementation. This article has attempted to elaborate and analyze the teaching method of Socrates with all its pre-suppositions and Epistemological character.

Keywords: Socratic method, dialectical method, knowledge, teaching, virtue

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Authors: M. Kamel El-Sayed

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In this research, we have linked the concept of rough set and topological structure to the creation of a new topological structure that assists in the analysis of the information systems of some electrical engineering issues. We used non-specific information whose boundaries do not have an empty set in the top topological structure is rough set. It is characterized by the fact that it does not contain a large number of elements and facilitates the establishment of rules. We used this structure in reducing the specifications of electrical information systems. We have provided a detailed example of this method illustrating the steps used. This method opens the door to obtaining multiple topologies, each of which uses one of the non-defined groups (rough set) in the overall information system.

Keywords: electrical engineering, information system, rough set, rough topology, topology

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Authors: Langa Hendrick Musawenkosi, Twala Bhekisipho

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The success or failure of students is a concern for every academic institution, college, university, governments and students themselves. Several approaches have been researched to address this concern. In this paper, a view is held that when a student enters a university or college or an academic institution, he or she enters an academic environment. The academic environment is unique concept used to develop the solution for making predictions effectively. This paper presents a model to determine the propensity of a student to succeed or fail in the French South African Schneider Electric Education Center (FSASEC) at the Vaal University of Technology (VUT). The Decision Tree algorithm is used to implement the model at FSASEC.

Keywords: FSASEC, academic environment model, decision trees, k-nearest neighbor, machine learning, popularity index, support vector machine

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Authors: Bahram Fathi, Karim Alizadeh, Azam Mohammadbagheri

Abstract:

The aim of this paper is to investigate the role of oil price shocks in explaining business cycles in Iran using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium approach. This model incorporates both productivity and oil revenue shocks. The results indicate that productivity shocks are relatively more important to business cycles than oil shocks. The model with two shocks produces different values for volatility, but these values have the same ranking as that of the actual data for most variables. In addition, the actual data are close to the ratio of standard deviations to the output obtained from the model with two shocks. The results indicate that productivity shocks are relatively more important to business cycles than the oil shocks. The model with only a productivity shock produces the most similar figures in term of volatility magnitude to that of the actual data. Next, we use the Impulse Response Functions (IRF) to evaluate the capability of the model. The IRF shows no effect of an oil shock on the capital stocks and on labor hours, which is a feature of the model. When the log-linearized system of equations is solved numerically, investment and labor hours were not found to be functions of the oil shock. This research recommends using different techniques to compare the model’s robustness. One method by which to do this is to have all decision variables as a function of the oil shock by inducing the stationary to the model differently. Another method is to impose a bond adjustment cost. This study intends to fill that gap. To achieve this objective, we derive a DSGE model that allows for the world oil price and productivity shocks. Second, we calibrate the model to the Iran economy. Next, we compare the moments from the theoretical model with both single and multiple shocks with that obtained from the actual data to see the extent to which business cycles in Iran can be explained by total oil revenue shock. Then, we use an impulse response function to evaluate the role of world oil price shocks. Finally, I present implications of the findings and interpretations in accordance with economic theory.

Keywords: oil price, shocks, dynamic stochastic general equilibrium, Iran

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Authors: Ayman M. Mansour

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In this paper, we propose an intelligent system that is used for monitoring the health conditions of Patients. Monitoring the health condition of Patients is a complex problem that involves different medical units and requires continuous monitoring especially in rural areas because of inadequate number of available specialized physicians. The proposed system will Improve patient care and drive costs down comparing to the existing system in Jordan. The proposed system will be the start point to Faster and improve the communication between different units in the health system in Jordan. Connecting patients and their physicians beyond hospital doors regarding their geographical area is an important issue in developing the health system in Jordan. The propose system will provide an intelligent system that will generate initial diagnosing to the patient case. This will assist and advice clinicians at the point of care. The decision is based on demographic data and laboratory test results of patient data. Using such system with the ability of making medical decisions, the quality of medical care in Jordan and specifically in Tafial is expected to be improved. This will provide more accurate, effective, and reliable diagnoses and treatments especially if the physicians have insufficient knowledge.

Keywords: GSM, SMS, patient, monitoring system, fuzzy logic, multi-agent system

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Authors: Animish Jain

Abstract:

This study deals with using Multiplicative Weight Update within artificial intelligence and machine learning to create models that can diagnose skin cancer using microscopic images of cancer samples. In this study, the multiplicative weight update method is used to take the predictions of multiple models to try and acquire more accurate results. Logistic Regression, Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), and Support Vector Machine Classifier (SVMC) models are employed within the Multiplicative Weight Update system. These models are trained on pictures of skin cancer from the ISIC-Archive, to look for patterns to label unseen scans as either benign or malignant. These models are utilized in a multiplicative weight update algorithm which takes into account the precision and accuracy of each model through each successive guess to apply weights to their guess. These guesses and weights are then analyzed together to try and obtain the correct predictions. The research hypothesis for this study stated that there would be a significant difference in the accuracy of the three models and the Multiplicative Weight Update system. The SVMC model had an accuracy of 77.88%. The CNN model had an accuracy of 85.30%. The Logistic Regression model had an accuracy of 79.09%. Using Multiplicative Weight Update, the algorithm received an accuracy of 72.27%. The final conclusion that was drawn was that there was a significant difference in the accuracy of the three models and the Multiplicative Weight Update system. The conclusion was made that using a CNN model would be the best option for this problem rather than a Multiplicative Weight Update system. This is due to the possibility that Multiplicative Weight Update is not effective in a binary setting where there are only two possible classifications. In a categorical setting with multiple classes and groupings, a Multiplicative Weight Update system might become more proficient as it takes into account the strengths of multiple different models to classify images into multiple categories rather than only two categories, as shown in this study. This experimentation and computer science project can help to create better algorithms and models for the future of artificial intelligence in the medical imaging field.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, machine learning, multiplicative weight update, skin cancer

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Authors: Leping Chen, Daoxiang An, Xiaotao Huang

Abstract:

Automatic vehicle detection using synthetic aperture radar (SAR) image has been widely researched, as well as using optical remote sensing images. However, most researches treat the detection as an independent problem, failing to make full use of SAR data information. In circular SAR (CSAR), the two long borders of vehicle will shrink if the imaging surface is set higher than the reference one. Based on above variance, an automatic vehicle detection using CSAR image is proposed to enhance detection ability under complex environment, such as vehicles’ closely packing, which confuses the detector. The detection method uses the multiple images generated by different height plane to obtain an energy-concentrated image for detecting and then uses the maximally stable extremal regions method (MSER) to detect vehicles. A result of vehicles’ detection is given to verify the effectiveness and correctness of proposed method.

Keywords: circular SAR, vehicle detection, automatic, imaging

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