Search results for: fuel volume estimation

Authors: Ratchadaporn Ungcharoen, Lily Ingsrisawang

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Capture-recapture methods are popular techniques for indirect estimation the size of wildlife populations and the completeness of cases in epidemiology and social sciences. The aim of this study was to estimate the completeness of pulmonary tuberculosis cases confirmed by two sources of hospital registrations and surveillance systems in 2013 in Nakhon Pathom province, Thailand. Several estimators of population size were considered: the Lincoln-Petersen estimator, the Chapman estimator, the Chao’s lower bound estimator, the Zelterman’s estimator, etc. We focus on the Chapman and Chao’s lower bound estimators for estimating the completeness of pulmonary tuberculosis from two sources. The retrieved pulmonary tuberculosis data from two sources were analyzed and bootstrapped for 30 samples, with 241 observations from source 1 and 305 observations from source 2 per sample, for additional exploration of the completeness of pulmonary tuberculosis. The results from the original data show that the Chapman’s estimator gave the estimation of a total 360 (95% CI: 349-371) pulmonary tuberculosis cases, resulting in 57% estimated completeness cases. But the Chao’s lower bound estimator estimated the total of 365 (95% CI: 354-376) pulmonary tuberculosis cases and its estimated completeness cases was 55.9%. For the results from bootstrap samples, the Chapman and the Chao’s lower bound estimators gave an estimated 347 (95% CI: 309-385) and 353 (95% CI: 315-390) pulmonary tuberculosis cases, respectively. If for two sources recoding systems are available, record-linkage and capture-recapture analysis can be useful for estimating the completeness of different registration system. Both Chapman and Chao’s lower bound estimator approaches produce very close estimates.

Keywords: capture-recapture, Chao, Chapman, pulmonary tuberculosis

Procedia PDF Downloads 510

Authors: T. Poyai, P. Painmanakul, N. Chawaloesphonsiya, P. Dhanasin, C. Getwech, P. Wattana

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Drilling is a key activity in oil and gas exploration and production. Drilling always requires the use of drilling mud for lubricating the drill bit and controlling the subsurface pressure. As drilling proceeds, a considerable amount of cuttings or rock fragments is generated. In general, water or Water Based Mud (WBM) serves as drilling fluid for the top hole section. The cuttings generated from this section is non-hazardous and normally applied as fill materials. On the other hand, drilling the bottom hole to reservoir section uses Synthetic Based Mud (SBM) of which synthetic oils are composed. The bottom-hole cuttings, SBM cuttings, is regarded as a hazardous waste, in accordance with the government regulations, due to the presence of hydrocarbons. Currently, the SBM cuttings are disposed of as an alternative fuel and raw material in cement kiln. Instead of burning, this work aims to propose an alternative for drill cuttings management under two ultimate goals: (1) reduction of hazardous waste volume; and (2) making use of the cleaned cuttings. Soil washing was selected as the major treatment process. The physiochemical properties of drill cuttings were analyzed, such as size fraction, pH, moisture content, and hydrocarbons. The particle size of cuttings was analyzed via light scattering method. Oil present in cuttings was quantified in terms of total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH) through gas chromatography equipped with flame ionization detector (GC-FID). Other components were measured by the standard methods for soil analysis. Effects of different washing agents, liquid-to-solid (L/S) ratio, washing time, mixing speed, rinse-to-solid (R/S) ratio, and rinsing time were also evaluated. It was found that drill cuttings held the electrical conductivity of 3.84 dS/m, pH of 9.1, and moisture content of 7.5%. The TPH in cuttings existed in the diesel range with the concentration ranging from 20,000 to 30,000 mg/kg dry cuttings. A majority of cuttings particles held a mean diameter of 50 µm, which represented silt fraction. The results also suggested that a green solvent was considered most promising for cuttings treatment regarding occupational health, safety, and environmental benefits. The optimal washing conditions were obtained at L/S of 5, washing time of 15 min, mixing speed of 60 rpm, R/S of 10, and rinsing time of 1 min. After washing process, three fractions including clean cuttings, spent solvent, and wastewater were considered and provided with recommendations. The residual TPH less than 5,000 mg/kg was detected in clean cuttings. The treated cuttings can be then used for various purposes. The spent solvent held the calorific value of higher than 3,000 cal/g, which can be used as an alternative fuel. Otherwise, the recovery of the used solvent can be conducted using distillation or chromatography techniques. Finally, the generated wastewater can be combined with the produced water and simultaneously managed by re-injection into the reservoir.

Keywords: drill cuttings, green solvent, soil washing, total petroleum hydrocarbon (TPH)

Procedia PDF Downloads 141

Authors: Jun-Lun Jiang, Bing-Sheng Yu

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Processing of flat-panel displays generates huge amount of wasted glass polishing powder, with high concentration of cerium and other elements such as lanthanum. According to the current statistics, consumption of polishing powder was approximately ten thousand tons per year in the world. Nevertheless, wasted polishing powder was usually buried or burned. If the lanthanum and cerium compounds in the wasted polishing powder could be recycled, that will greatly reduce enterprise cost and implement waste circulation. Cathodes of SOFCs are the principal consisting of rare earth elements such as lanthanum and cerium. In this study, we recycled the lanthanum and cerium from wasted glass polishing powder by acid-solution method, and synthesized La0.8Sr0.05Ca0.15Fe0.8Co0.8O3-δ and Gd0.1Ce0.9O2 (LSCCF-GDC) composite cathode material for SOFCs by glycinenitrate combustion (GNP) method. The results show that the recovery rates of lanthanum and cerium could accomplish up to 80% and 100% under 10N nitric acid solution within one hour. Comparing with the XRD data of the commercial LSCCF-GDC powder and the LSCCF-GDC product synthesized with chemicals, we find that the LSCCF-GDC was successfully synthesized with the recycled La & Ce solution by GNP method. The effect of adding ammonia to the product was also discussed, the grain size is finer and recovery rate of the product is higher without the addition of ammonia to the solution.

Keywords: glass polishing powder, acid solution, recycling, composite cathodes of solid oxide fuel, cell (SOFC), perovskite, glycine-nitrate combustion(GNP) method

Procedia PDF Downloads 261

Authors: Rohit Vashistha, Amit Kumar Gupta, G. P. Ravishankar, Mahesh P. Padwale

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Accurate thrust measurement is required for aircraft during takeoff and after ski-jump. In a developmental aircraft, takeoff from ship is extremely critical and thrust produced by the engine should be known to the pilot before takeoff so that if thrust produced is not sufficient then take-off can be aborted and accident can be avoided. After ski-jump, thrust produced by engine is required because the horizontal speed of aircraft is less than the normal takeoff speed. Engine should be able to produce enough thrust to provide nominal horizontal takeoff speed to the airframe within prescribed time limit. The contemporary low bypass gas turbine engines generally have three mounts where the two side mounts transfer the engine thrust to the airframe. The third mount only takes the weight component. It does not take any thrust component. In the present method of thrust estimation, the strain gauging of the two side mounts is carried out. The strain produced at various power settings is used to estimate the thrust produced by the engine. The quarter Wheatstone bridge is used to acquire the strain data. The engine mount assembly is subjected to Universal Test Machine for determination of equivalent elasticity of assembly. This elasticity value is used in the analytical approach for estimation of engine thrust. The estimated thrust is compared with the test bed load cell thrust data. The experimental strain data is also compared with strain data obtained from FEM analysis. Experimental setup: The strain gauge is mounted on the tapered portion of the engine mount sleeve. Two strain gauges are mounted on diametrically opposite locations. Both of the strain gauges on the sleeve were in the horizontal plane. In this way, these strain gauges were not taking any strain due to the weight of the engine (except negligible strain due to material's poison's ratio) or the hoop's stress. Only the third mount strain gauge will show strain when engine is not running i.e. strain due to weight of engine. When engine starts running, all the load will be taken by the side mounts. The strain gauge on the forward side of the sleeve was showing a compressive strain and the strain gauge on the rear side of the sleeve shows a tensile strain. Results and conclusion: the analytical calculation shows that the hoop stresses dominate the bending stress. The estimated thrust by strain gauge shows good accuracy at higher power setting as compared to lower power setting. The accuracy of estimated thrust at max power setting is 99.7% whereas at lower power setting is 78%.

Keywords: engine mounts, finite elements analysis, strain gauge, stress

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Authors: Saurabh Satija, Munish Garg

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Present work reports an efficient extraction method using microwaves based solvent–sample duo-heating mechanism, for the extraction of an important anti-diabetic plant Tinospora cordifolia from AYUSH system for estimation of berberine content. The process is based on simultaneous heating of sample matrix and extracting solvent under microwave energy. Methanol was used as the extracting solvent, which has excellent berberine solubilizing power and warms up under microwave attributable to its great dispersal factor. Extraction conditions like time of irradition, microwave power, solute-solvent ratio and temperature were optimized using Taguchi design and berberine was quantified using high performance thin layer chromatography. The ranked optimized parameters were microwave power (rank 1), irradiation time (rank 2) and temperature (rank 3). This kind of extraction mechanism under dual heating provided choice of extraction parameters for better precision and higher yield with significant reduction in extraction time under optimum extraction conditions. This developed extraction protocol will lead to extract higher amounts of berberine which is a major anti-diabetic moiety in Tinospora cordifolia which can lead to development of cheaper formulations of the plant Tinospora cordifolia and can help in rapid prevention of diabetes in the world.

Keywords: berberine, microwave, optimization, Taguchi

Procedia PDF Downloads 327

Authors: G. M. Hamada, A. A. Al-Gathe, A. M. Al-Khudafi

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Determination of water saturation in sandstone is a vital question to determine the initial oil or gas in place in reservoir rocks. Water saturation determination using electrical measurements is mainly on Archie’s formula. Consequently accuracy of Archie’s formula parameters affects water saturation values rigorously. Determination of Archie’s parameters a, m, and n is proceeded by three conventional techniques, Core Archie-Parameter Estimation (CAPE) and 3-D. This work introduces the hybrid system of parallel self-organizing neural network (PSONN) targeting accepted values of Archie’s parameters and, consequently, reliable water saturation values. This work focuses on Archie’s parameters determination techniques; conventional technique, CAPE technique, and 3-D technique, and then the calculation of water saturation using current. Using the same data, a hybrid parallel self-organizing neural network (PSONN) algorithm is used to estimate Archie’s parameters and predict water saturation. Results have shown that estimated Arche’s parameters m, a, and n are highly accepted with statistical analysis, indicating that the PSONN model has a lower statistical error and higher correlation coefficient. This study was conducted using a high number of measurement points for 144 core plugs from a sandstone reservoir. PSONN algorithm can provide reliable water saturation values, and it can supplement or even replace the conventional techniques to determine Archie’s parameters and thereby calculate water saturation profiles.

Keywords: water saturation, Archie’s parameters, artificial intelligence, PSONN, sandstone reservoir

Procedia PDF Downloads 118

Authors: Omid Adibi, Nategheh Najafpour, Bijan Farhanieh, Hossein Afshin

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Gas release from the pipelines is one of the main factors in the gas industry accidents. Released gas ejects from the pipeline as a free jet and in the growth process, the fuel gets mixed with the ambient air. Accordingly, an accidental spark will release the chemical energy of the mixture with an explosion. Gas explosion damages the equipment and endangers the life of staffs. So due to importance of safety in gas industries, prevision of accident can reduce the number of the casualties. In this paper, natural gas leakages from the low pressure pipelines are studied in two steps: 1) the simulation of mixing process and identification of flammable zones and 2) the simulation of wind effects on the mixing process. The numerical simulations were performed by using the finite volume method and the pressure-based algorithm. Also, for the grid generation the structured method was used. The results show that, in just 6.4 s after accident, released natural gas could penetrate to 40 m in vertical and 20 m in horizontal direction. Moreover, the results show that the wind speed is a key factor in dispersion process. In fact, the wind transports the flammable zones into the downstream. Hence, to improve the safety of the people and human property, it is preferable to construct gas facilities and buildings in the opposite side of prevailing wind direction.

Keywords: flammable zones, gas pipelines, numerical simulation, wind effects

Procedia PDF Downloads 153

Authors: F. C. Amadi, G. C. Enyi, G. Nasr

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Relative permeabilities are practical factors that are used to correct the single phase Darcy’s law for application to multiphase flow. For effective characterisation of large-scale multiphase flow in hydrocarbon recovery, relative permeability and capillary pressures are used. These parameters are acquired via special core flooding experiments. Special core analysis (SCAL) module of reservoir simulation is applied by engineers for the evaluation of these parameters. But, core flooding experiments in shale core sample are expensive and time consuming before various flow assumptions are achieved for instance Darcy’s law. This makes it imperative for the application of coreflooding simulations in which various analysis of relative permeabilities and capillary pressures of multiphase flow can be carried out efficiently and effectively at a relative pace. This paper presents a Sendra software simulation of core flooding to achieve to relative permeabilities and capillary pressures using different correlations. The approach used in this study was three steps. The first step, the basic petrophysical parameters of Marcellus shale sample such as porosity was determined using laboratory techniques. Secondly, core flooding was simulated for particular scenario of injection using different correlations. And thirdly the best fit correlations for the estimation of relative permeability and capillary pressure was obtained. This research approach saves cost and time and very reliable in the computation of relative permeability and capillary pressures at steady or unsteady state, drainage or imbibition processes in oil and gas industry when compared to other methods.

Keywords: relative permeabilty, porosity, 1-D black oil simulator, capillary pressures

Procedia PDF Downloads 431

Authors: Belén Vinaixa Kinnear, Arturo Hidalgo López, Bernardo Elembo Wilasi, Pablo Fernández Pérez, Cecilia Hernández Fuentealba

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The expanded use of risk assessment in legislative and corporate decision-making has increased the role of expert judgement in giving data for security-related decision-making. Expert judgements are required in most steps of risk assessment: danger recognizable proof, hazard estimation, risk evaluation, and examination of choices. This paper presents a fault tree analysis (FTA), which implies a probabilistic failure analysis applied to leakage of oil in a subsea production system. In standard FTA, the failure probabilities of items of a framework are treated as exact values while evaluating the failure probability of the top event. There is continuously insufficiency of data for calculating the failure estimation of components within the drilling industry. Therefore, fuzzy hypothesis can be used as a solution to solve the issue. The aim of this paper is to examine the leaks from the Zafiro West subsea oil facility by using fuzzy fault tree analysis (FFTA). As a result, the research has given theoretical and practical contributions to maritime safety and environmental protection. It has been also an effective strategy used traditionally in identifying hazards in nuclear installations and power industries.

Keywords: expert judgment, probability assessment, fault tree analysis, risk analysis, oil pipelines, subsea production system, drilling, quantitative risk analysis, leakage failure, top event, off-shore industry

Procedia PDF Downloads 178

Authors: Ratnakumar V. Kappagantula, Gordon D. Ingram, Hari B. Vuthaluru

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This paper analyzes a three reactor chemical looping process for hydrogen production from natural gas, allowing for carbon dioxide capture through chemical looping technology. An oxygen carrier is circulated to separate carbon dioxide, to reduce steam for hydrogen production and to supply oxygen for combustion. In this study, the emphasis is placed on the steam conversion in the steam reactor by investigating the hydrogen efficiencies of the complete system at steam conversions of 15.8% and 50%. An Aspen Plus model was developed for a Three Reactor Chemical Looping process to study the effects of operational parameters on hydrogen production is investigated. Maximum hydrogen production was observed under stoichiometric conditions. Different conversions in the steam reactor, which was modelled as a Gibbs reactor, were found when Gibbs-identified products and user identified products were chosen. Simulations were performed for different oxygen carriers, which consist of an active metal oxide on an inert support material. For the same metal oxide mass flowrate, the fuel reactor temperature decreased for different support materials in the order: aluminum oxide (Al2O3) > magnesium aluminate (MgAl2O4) > zirconia (ZrO2). To achieve the same fuel reactor temperature for the same oxide mass flow rate, the inert mass fraction was found to be 0.825 for ZrO2, 0.7 for MgAl2O4 and 0.6 for Al2O3. The effect of poisoning of the oxygen carrier was also analyzed. With 3000 ppm sulfur-based impurities in the feed gas, the hydrogen product energy rate of the process were found to decrease by 0.4%.

Keywords: aspen plus, chemical looping combustion, inert support balls, oxygen carrier

Procedia PDF Downloads 311

Authors: I. Inuaeyen, L. Phil, O. Eni

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Fossil fuels have been the main source of global energy for many decades, accounting for about 80% of global energy need. This is beginning to change however with increasing concern about greenhouse gas emissions which comes mostly from fossil fuel combustion. Greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide are responsible for stimulating climate change. As a result, there has been shift towards more clean and renewable energy sources of energy as a strategy for stemming greenhouse gas emission into the atmosphere. The production of bio-products such as bio-fuel, bio-electricity, bio-chemicals, and bio-heat etc. using biomass materials in accordance with the bio-refinery concept holds a great potential for reducing high dependence on fossil fuel and their resources. The bio-refinery concept promotes efficient utilisation of biomass material for the simultaneous production of a variety of products in order to minimize or eliminate waste materials. This will ultimately reduce greenhouse gas emissions into the environment. In Nigeria, cassava solid waste from cassava processing facilities has been identified as a vital feedstock for bio-refinery process. Cassava is generally a staple food in Nigeria and one of the most widely cultivated foodstuff by farmers across Nigeria. As a result, there is an abundant supply of cassava waste in Nigeria. In this study, the aim is to explore opportunities for converting cassava waste to a range of bio-products such as butanol, ethanol, electricity, heat, methanol, furfural etc. using a combination of biochemical, thermochemical and chemical conversion routes. . The best process scenario will be identified through the evaluation of economic analysis, energy efficiency, life cycle analysis and social impact. The study will be carried out by developing a model representing different process options for cassava waste conversion to useful products. The model will be developed using Aspen Plus process simulation software. Process economic analysis will be done using Aspen Icarus software. So far, comprehensive survey of literature has been conducted. This includes studies on conversion of cassava solid waste to a variety of bio-products using different conversion techniques, cassava waste production in Nigeria, modelling and simulation of waste conversion to useful products among others. Also, statistical distribution of cassava solid waste production in Nigeria has been established and key literatures with useful parameters for developing different cassava waste conversion process has been identified. In the future work, detailed modelling of the different process scenarios will be carried out and the models validated using data from literature and demonstration plants. A techno-economic comparison of the various process scenarios will be carried out to identify the best scenario using process economics, life cycle analysis, energy efficiency and social impact as the performance indexes.

Keywords: bio-refinery, cassava waste, energy, process modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 354

Authors: Keisuke Takahata, Hiroshi Suetsugu

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Forest height is an important parameter for forest biomass estimation, and precise elevation data is essential for accurate forest height estimation. There are several globally or nationally available digital elevation models (DEMs) like SRTM and ASTER. However, its accuracy is reported to be low particularly in mountainous areas where there are closed canopy or steep slope. Recently, space-borne LiDAR, such as the Global Ecosystem Dynamics Investigation (GEDI), have started to provide sparse but accurate ground elevation and canopy height estimates. Several studies have reported the high degree of accuracy in their elevation products on their exact footprints, while it is not clear how this sparse information can be used for wider area. In this study, we developed a digital terrain model correction algorithm by spatially interpolating the difference between existing DEMs and GEDI elevation products by using Gaussian Process (GP) regression model. The result shows that our GP-based methodology can reduce the mean bias of the elevation data from 3.7m to 0.3m when we use airborne LiDAR-derived elevation information as ground truth. Our algorithm is also capable of quantifying the elevation data uncertainty, which is critical requirement for biomass inventory. Upcoming satellite-LiDAR missions, like MOLI (Multi-footprint Observation Lidar and Imager), are expected to contribute to the more accurate digital terrain model generation.

Keywords: digital terrain model, satellite LiDAR, gaussian processes, uncertainty quantification

Procedia PDF Downloads 162

Authors: Gautier Viaud, Paul-Henry Cournède

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Plant growth models have been used extensively for the prediction of the phenotypic performance of plants. However, they remain most often calibrated for a given genotype and therefore do not take into account genotype by environment interactions. One way of achieving such an objective is to consider Bayesian hierarchical models. Three levels can be identified in such models: The first level describes how a given growth model describes the phenotype of the plant as a function of individual parameters, the second level describes how these individual parameters are distributed within a plant population, the third level corresponds to the attribution of priors on population parameters. Thanks to the Bayesian framework, choosing appropriate priors for the population parameters permits to derive analytical expressions for the full conditional distributions of these population parameters. As plant growth models are of a nonlinear nature, individual parameters cannot be sampled explicitly, and a Metropolis step must be performed. This allows for the use of a hybrid Gibbs--Metropolis sampler. A generic approach was devised for the implementation of both general state space models and estimation algorithms within a programming platform. It was designed using the Julia language, which combines an elegant syntax, metaprogramming capabilities and exhibits high efficiency. Results were obtained for Arabidopsis thaliana on both simulated and real data. An organ-scale Greenlab model for the latter is thus presented, where the surface areas of each individual leaf can be simulated. It is assumed that the error made on the measurement of leaf areas is proportional to the leaf area itself; multiplicative normal noises for the observations are therefore used. Real data were obtained via image analysis of zenithal images of Arabidopsis thaliana over a period of 21 days using a two-step segmentation and tracking algorithm which notably takes advantage of the Arabidopsis thaliana phyllotaxy. Since the model formulation is rather flexible, there is no need that the data for a single individual be available at all times, nor that the times at which data is available be the same for all the different individuals. This allows to discard data from image analysis when it is not considered reliable enough, thereby providing low-biased data in large quantity for leaf areas. The proposed model precisely reproduces the dynamics of Arabidopsis thaliana’s growth while accounting for the variability between genotypes. In addition to the estimation of the population parameters, the level of variability is an interesting indicator of the genotypic stability of model parameters. A promising perspective is to test whether some of the latter should be considered as fixed effects.

Keywords: bayesian, genotypic differentiation, hierarchical models, plant growth models

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Authors: Ibrahim Rassoul, E-K. Si Ahmed

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The growth, deformation, and detachment of fluid droplets adherent to solid substrates is a problem of fundamental interest with numerous practical applications. Specific interest in this proposal is the problem of a droplet on a fibrous, hydrophobic substrate subjected to body or external forces (gravity, convection). The past decade has seen tremendous advances in proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) technology. However, there remain many challenges to bring commercially viable stationary PEMFC products to the market. PEMFCs are increasingly emerging as a viable alternative clean power source for automobile and stationary applications. Before PEMFCs can be employed to power automobiles and homes, several key technical challenges must be properly addressed. One technical challenge is elucidating the mechanisms underlying water transport in and removal from PEMFCs. On the one hand, sufficient water is needed in the polymer electrolyte membrane or PEM to maintain sufficiently high proton conductivity. On the other hand, too much liquid water present in the cathode can cause 'flooding' (that is, pore space is filled with excessive liquid water) and hinder the transport of the oxygen reactant from the gas flow channel (GFC) to the three-phase reaction sites. The aim of this work is to investigate the stability of a liquid water droplet emerging form a GDL pore, to gain fundamental insight into the instability process leading to detachment. The approach will combine analytical and numerical modeling with experimental visualization and measurements.

Keywords: polymer electrolyte fuel cell, water droplet, gas diffusion layer, contact angle, surface tension

Procedia PDF Downloads 238

Authors: Ali Mashayekh, Mahdiye Khorasani, Thomas Weyh

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The tendency to use the Battery-Electric vehicle (BEV) for the low and medium driving range or even high driving range has been growing more and more. As a result, higher safety, reliability, and durability of the battery pack as a component of electric vehicles, which has a great share of cost and weight of the final product, are the topics to be considered and investigated. Battery aging can be considered as the predominant factor regarding the reliability and durability of BEV. To better understand the aging process, offline battery characterization has been widely used, which is time-consuming and needs very expensive infrastructures. This paper presents the substitute method for the conventional battery characterization methods, which is based on battery Modular Multilevel Management (BM3). According to this Topology, the battery cells can be drained and charged concerning their capacity, which allows varying battery pack structures. Due to the integration of the power electronics, the output voltage of the battery pack is no longer fixed but can be dynamically adjusted in small steps. In other words, each cell can have three different states, namely series, parallel, and bypass in connection with the neighbor cells. With the help of MATLAB/Simulink and by using the BM3 modules, the battery string model is created. This model allows us to switch two cells with the different SoC as parallel, which results in the internal balancing of the cells. But if the parallel switching lasts just for a couple of ms, we can have a perturbation pulse which can stimulate the cells out of the relaxation phase. With the help of modeling the voltage response pulse of the battery, it would be possible to characterize the cell. The Online EIS method, which is discussed in this paper, can be a robust substitute for the conventional battery characterization methods.

Keywords: battery characterization, SoH estimation, RLS, BEV

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Authors: Kawsar Ahmed, Hong Wang

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The study's goal was to estimate the causal mediation impact of tobacco tax before and after price hikes among low-income male smokers, with a particular emphasis on the effect estimating pathways framework for continuous and dichotomous variables. From July to December 2021, a cross-sectional investigation of observational data (n=739) was collected from Bangladeshi low-wage smokers. The Quasi-Bayesian technique, binomial probit model, and sensitivity analysis using a simulation of the computational tools R mediation package had been used to estimate the effect. After a price rise for tobacco products, the average number of cigarettes or bidis sticks taken decreased from 6.7 to 4.56. Tobacco product rising prices have a direct effect on low-income people's decisions to quit or lessen their daily smoking habits of Average Causal Mediation Effect (ACME) [effect=2.31, 95 % confidence interval (C.I.) = (4.71-0.00), p<0.01], Average Direct Effect (ADE) [effect=8.6, 95 percent (C.I.) = (6.8-0.11), p<0.001], and overall significant effects (p<0.001). Tobacco smoking choice is described by the mediated proportion of income effect, which is 26.1% less of following price rise. The curve of ACME and ADE is based on observational figures of the coefficients of determination that asses the model of hypothesis as the substantial consequence after price rises in the sensitivity analysis. To reduce smoking product behaviors, price increases through taxation have a positive causal mediation with income that affects the decision to limit tobacco use and promote low-income men's healthcare policy.

Keywords: causal mediation analysis, directed acyclic graphs, tobacco price policy, sensitivity analysis, pathway estimation

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Authors: Mauricio Gracia, Luis Leal, Bharat Verma

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Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) has become nowadays an important tool in the process of hydrodynamic design of modern ships. CFD is used to model any phenomena related to fluid flow in a control volume like a ship or any offshore structure in the sea. In the present study, the current force drag coefficients for a Colombian Navy Frigate in deep and shallow water are estimated through the application of CFD. The study shows the process of simulating the ship current drag coefficients using the CFD simulations method, which is conducted using STAR-CCM+ software package. The Almirante Padilla class Frigate ship scale model is investigated. The results show the ship current drag coefficient calculated considering a current speed of 1 knot with a 90° drift angle for the full-scale ship. Predicted results were compared against the current drag coefficients published in the Lloyds register OCIMF report. It is shown that the simulation results agree fairly well with the published results and that STAR-CCM+ code can predict current drag coefficients.

Keywords: CFD, current draft coefficient, STAR-CCM+, OCIMF, Bollard pull

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Authors: Bujar Ismaili, Bahti Ismajli, Venhar Ismaili, Skender Ramadani

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In Kosovo, the problem with the electricity supply is huge and does not meet the demands of consumers. Older thermal power plants, which are regarded as big environmental polluters, produce most of the energy. Our experiment is based on the production of electricity using the closed method that does not affect environmental pollution by using waste as fuel that is considered to pollute the environment. The experiment was carried out in the village of Godanc, municipality of Shtime - Kosovo. In the experiment, a production line based on the production of electricity and central heating was designed at the same time. The results are the benefits of electricity as well as the release of temperature for heating with minimal expenses and with the release of 0% gases into the atmosphere. During this experiment, coal, plastic, waste from wood processing, and agricultural wastes were used as raw materials. The method utilized in the experiment allows for the release of gas through pipes and filters during the top-to-bottom combustion of the raw material in the boiler, followed by the method of gas filtration from waste wood processing (sawdust). During this process, the final product is obtained - gas, which passes through the carburetor, which enables the gas combustion process and puts into operation the internal combustion machine and the generator and produces electricity that does not release gases into the atmosphere. The obtained results show that the system provides energy stability without environmental pollution from toxic substances and waste, as well as with low production costs. From the final results, it follows that: in the case of using coal fuel, we have benefited from more electricity and higher temperature release, followed by plastic waste, which also gave good results. The results obtained during these experiments prove that the current problems of lack of electricity and heating can be met at a lower cost and have a clean environment and waste management.

Keywords: energy, heating, atmosphere, waste, gasification

Procedia PDF Downloads 220

Authors: Fares Laouacheria, Said Kechida, Moncef Chabi

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The objective of the study was based on the hydrological routing modelling for the continuous monitoring of the hydrological situation in the Moudjar river catchment, especially during floods with Hydrologic Engineering Center–Hydrologic Modelling Systems (HEC-HMS). The HEC-GeoHMS was used to transform data from geographic information system (GIS) to HEC-HMS for delineating and modelling the catchment river in order to estimate the runoff volume, which is used as inputs to the hydrological routing model. Two hydrological routing models were used, namely Muskingum and Muskingum routing models, for conducting this study. In this study, a comparison between the parameters of the Muskingum and Muskingum-Cunge routing models in HEC-HMS was used for modelling flood routing in the Moudjar river catchment and determining the relationship between these parameters and the physical characteristics of the river. The results indicate that the effects of input parameters such as the weighting factor "X" and travel time "K" on the output results are more significant, where the Muskingum routing model was more sensitive to input parameters than the Muskingum-Cunge routing model. This study can contribute to understand and improve the knowledge of the mechanisms of river floods, especially in ungauged river catchments.

Keywords: HEC-HMS, hydrological modelling, Muskingum routing model, Muskingum-Cunge routing model

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Authors: Said Yousif Khairi

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Being a developing economy, imports of capital, raw materials and manufactories goods are vital for sustainable economic growth. In 2006, Libya imported LD 8 billion (US$ 6.25 billion) which composed of mainly machinery and transport equipment (49.3%), raw material (18%), and food products and live animals (13%). This represented about 10% of GDP. Thus, it is pertinent to investigate factors affecting the amount of Libyan imports. An econometric model representing the aggregate import demand for Libya was developed and estimated using the bounds test procedure, which based on an unrestricted error correction model (UECM). The data employed for the estimation was from 1970–2010. The results of the bounds test revealed that the volume of imports and its determinants namely real income, consumer price index and exchange rate are co-integrated. The findings indicate that the demand for imports is inelastic with respect to income, index price level and The exchange rate variable in the short run is statistically significant. In the long run, the income elasticity is elastic while the price elasticity and the exchange rate remains inelastic. This indicates that imports are important elements for Libyan economic growth in the long run.

Keywords: import demand, UECM, bounds test, Libya

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Authors: Georgiana Onicescu, Yuqian Shen

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Due to the complex nature of geo-referenced data, multicollinearity of the risk factors in public health spatial studies is a commonly encountered issue, which leads to low parameter estimation accuracy because it inflates the variance in the regression analysis. To address this issue, we proposed a two-stage variable selection method by extending the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (Lasso) to the Bayesian spatial setting, investigating the impact of risk factors to health outcomes. Specifically, in stage I, we performed the variable selection using Bayesian Lasso and several other variable selection approaches. Then, in stage II, we performed the model selection with only the selected variables from stage I and compared again the methods. To evaluate the performance of the two-stage variable selection methods, we conducted a simulation study with different distributions for the risk factors, using geo-referenced count data as the outcome and Michigan as the research region. We considered the cases when all candidate risk factors are independently normally distributed, or follow a multivariate normal distribution with different correlation levels. Two other Bayesian variable selection methods, Binary indicator, and the combination of Binary indicator and Lasso were considered and compared as alternative methods. The simulation results indicated that the proposed two-stage Bayesian Lasso variable selection method has the best performance for both independent and dependent cases considered. When compared with the one-stage approach, and the other two alternative methods, the two-stage Bayesian Lasso approach provides the highest estimation accuracy in all scenarios considered.

Keywords: Lasso, Bayesian analysis, spatial analysis, variable selection

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Authors: Dilin Chen, Kang Luo, Jian Wu, Chun Yang, Hongliang Yi

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Electrically driven flows (EDF) systems play an important role in fuel cells, electrochemistry, bioseparation technology, fluid pumping, and microswimmers. The core scientific problem is multifield coupling, the further development of which depends on the exploration of nonlinear instabilities, force competing mechanisms, and energy budgets. In our study, two categories of electrostatic force-dominated phenomena, induced charge electrosmosis (ICEO) and ion conduction pumping are investigated while considering polymer rheological characteristics and heat gradients. With finite volume methods, the thermal modulation strategy of ICEO under the thermal buoyancy force is numerically analyzed, and the electroelastic instability turn associated with polymer addition is extended. The results reveal that the thermal buoyancy forces are sufficient to create typical thermogravitational convection in competition with electroconvective modes. Electroelastic instability tends to be promoted by weak electrical forces, and polymers effectively alter the unstable transition routes. Our letter paves the way for improved mixing and heat transmission in microdevices, as well as insights into the non-Newtonian nature of electrohydrodynamic dynamics.

Keywords: non-Newtonian fluid, electroosmotic flow, electrohydrodynamic, viscoelastic liquids, heat transfer

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Authors: Ece Cigdem Mutlu, Burak Alakent

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Maintaining the quality of manufactured products at a desired level depends on the stability of process dispersion and location parameters and detection of perturbations in these parameters as promptly as possible. Shewhart control chart is the most widely used technique in statistical process monitoring to monitor the quality of products and control process mean and variability. In the application of Xbar control charts, sample standard deviation and sample mean are known to be the most efficient conventional estimators in determining process dispersion and location parameters, respectively, based on the assumption of independent and normally distributed datasets. On the other hand, there is no guarantee that the real-world data would be normally distributed. In the cases of estimated process parameters from Phase I data clouded with outliers, efficiency of traditional estimators is significantly reduced, and performance of Xbar charts are undesirably low, e.g. occasional outliers in the rational subgroups in Phase I data set may considerably affect the sample mean and standard deviation, resulting a serious delay in detection of inferior products in Phase II. For more efficient application of control charts, it is required to use robust estimators against contaminations, which may exist in Phase I. In the current study, we present a simple approach to construct robust Xbar control charts using average distance to the median, Qn-estimator of scale, M-estimator of scale with logistic psi-function in the estimation of process dispersion parameter, and Harrell-Davis qth quantile estimator, Hodge-Lehmann estimator and M-estimator of location with Huber psi-function and logistic psi-function in the estimation of process location parameter. Phase I efficiency of proposed estimators and Phase II performance of Xbar charts constructed from these estimators are compared with the conventional mean and standard deviation statistics both under normality and against diffuse-localized and symmetric-asymmetric contaminations using 50,000 Monte Carlo simulations on MATLAB. Consequently, it is found that robust estimators yield parameter estimates with higher efficiency against all types of contaminations, and Xbar charts constructed using robust estimators have higher power in detecting disturbances, compared to conventional methods. Additionally, utilizing individuals charts to screen outlier subgroups and employing different combination of dispersion and location estimators on subgroups and individual observations are found to improve the performance of Xbar charts.

Keywords: average run length, M-estimators, quality control, robust estimators

Procedia PDF Downloads 177

Authors: Samuel K. Degife, Kamal K. Pant, Sapna Jain

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The world´s population and industrialization of countries continued to grow in an alarming rate irrespective of the security for food, energy supply, and pure water availability. As a result, the global energy consumption is observed to increase significantly. Fossil energy resources that mainly comprised of crude oil, coal, and natural gas have been used by mankind as the main energy source for almost two centuries. However, sufficient evidences are revealing that the consumption of fossil resource as transportation fuel emits environmental pollutants such as CO2, NOx, and SOx. These resources are dwindling rapidly besides enormous amount of problems associated such as fluctuation of oil price and instability of oil-rich regions. Biomass is a promising renewable energy candidate to replace fossil-based transportation fuel and chemical production. The present study aims at valorization of hexose sugars (glucose and fructose) using zeolite based catalysts in imidazolium based ionic liquid (1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium chloride, [BMIM] Cl) reaction media. The catalytic effect chromium impregnated H-ZSM-5 (Cr/H-ZSM-5) was studied for dehydration of hexose sugars. The wet impregnation method was used to prepare Cr/H-ZSM-5 catalyst. The characterization of the prepared catalyst was performed using techniques such as Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR), X-ray diffraction analysis (XRD), Temperature-programmed desorption of ammonia (NH3-TPD) and BET-surface area analysis. The dehydration product, 5-hydroxymethylfurfural (5-HMF), was analyzed using high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC). Cr/H-ZSM-5 was effective in dehydrating fructose with 87% conversion and 55% yield 5-HMF at 180 oC for 30 min of reaction time compared with H-ZSM-5 catalyst which yielded only 31% of 5-HMF at identical reaction condition.

Keywords: chromium, hexose, ionic liquid, , zeolite

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Authors: Hesam Gholami

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Elevated suspended sediment loads in riverine systems resulting from accelerated erosion due to human activities are a serious threat to the sustainable management of watersheds and ecosystem services therein worldwide. Therefore, mitigation of deleterious sediment effects as a distributed or non-point pollution source in the catchments requires reliable provenance information. Sediment tracing or sediment fingerprinting, as a combined process consisting of sampling, laboratory measurements, different statistical tests, and the application of mixing or unmixing models, is a useful technique for discriminating the sources of sediments. From 1996 to the present, different aspects of this technique, such as grouping the sources (spatial and individual sources), discriminating the potential sources by different statistical techniques, and modification of mixing and unmixing models, have been introduced and modified by many researchers worldwide, and have been applied to identify the provenance of fine materials in agricultural, rural, mountainous, and coastal catchments, and in large catchments with numerous lakes and reservoirs. In the last two decades, efforts exploring the uncertainties associated with sediment fingerprinting results have attracted increasing attention. The frameworks used to quantify the uncertainty associated with fingerprinting estimates can be divided into three groups comprising Monte Carlo simulation, Bayesian approaches and generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE). Given the above background, the primary goal of this study was to apply geochemical fingerprinting within the GLUE framework in the estimation of sub-basin spatial sediment source contributions in the arid Mehran River catchment in southern Iran, which drains into the Persian Gulf. The accuracy of GLUE predictions generated using four different sets of statistical tests for discriminating three sub-basin spatial sources was evaluated using 10 virtual sediments (VS) samples with known source contributions using the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE). Based on the results, the contributions modeled by GLUE for the western, central and eastern sub-basins are 1-42% (overall mean 20%), 0.5-30% (overall mean 12%) and 55-84% (overall mean 68%), respectively. According to the mean absolute fit (MAF; ≥ 95% for all target sediment samples) and goodness-of-fit (GOF; ≥ 99% for all samples), our suggested modeling approach is an accurate technique to quantify the source of sediments in the catchments. Overall, the estimated source proportions can help watershed engineers plan the targeting of conservation programs for soil and water resources.

Keywords: sediment source tracing, generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation, virtual sediment mixtures, Iran

Procedia PDF Downloads 63

Authors: Muhammad Ghaffar Doggar, Farah

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The primary objective of this feasibility study is to conduct a techno-financial assessment for installation of biomass based power plant in Faisalabad division. The study involves identification of best site for power plant followed by an assessment of biomass resource potential in the area and propose power plant of suitable size. The study also entailed comprehensive supply chain analysis to determine biomass fuel pricing, transportation and storage. Further technical and financial analyses have been done for selection of appropriate technology for the power plant and its financial viability, respectively. The assessment of biomass resources and the subsequent technical analysis revealed that 20 MW biomass power plant could be implemented at one of the locations near Faisalabad city i.e. AARI Site, Near Chak Jhumra district Faisalabad, Punjab province. Three options for steam pressure; namely, 70 bar, 90 bar and 100 bar boilers have been considered. Using international experience and prices on power plant technology and local prices on locally available equipment, the study concludes biomass fuel price of around 50 US dollars (USD) per ton when delivered to power plant site. The electricity prices used for feasibility calculations were 0.13 USD per KWh for electricity from a locally financed project and 0.11 USD per KWh for internationally financed power plant. For local financing the most viable choice is the 70 bar solution and with international financing, the most feasible solution is using a 90 bar boiler. Between the two options, the internationally financed 90 bar boiler setup gives better financial results than the locally financed 70 bar boiler project. It has been concluded that 20 MW with 90 bar power plant and internationally financed would have an equity IRR of 23% and a payback period of 7 years. This will be a cheap option for installation of power plants.

Keywords: AARI, Ayub agriculture research institute, biomass - crops residue, KWh - electricity Units, MG - Muhammad Ghaffar

Procedia PDF Downloads 323

Authors: A. Shebani, C. Pislaru

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Wear of materials is an everyday experience and has been observed and studied for long time. The prediction of wear is a fundamental problem in the industrial field, mainly correlated to the planning of maintenance interventions and economy. Pin-on-disc test is the most common test which is used to study the wear behaviour. In this paper, the pin-on-disc (AEROTECH UNIDEX 11) is used for the investigation of the effects of normal load and hardness of material on the wear under dry and sliding conditions. In the pin-on-disc rig, two specimens were used; one, a pin which is made of steel with a tip, is positioned perpendicular to the disc, where the disc is made of aluminium. The pin wear and disc wear were measured by using the following instruments: The Talysurf instrument, a digital microscope, and the alicona instrument; where the Talysurf profilometer was used to measure the pin/disc wear scar depth, and the alicona was used to measure the volume loss for pin and disc. After that, the Archard model, American Society for Testing and Materials model (ASTM), and neural network model were used for pin/disc wear modelling and the simulation results are implemented by using the Matlab program. This paper focuses on how the alicona can be considered as a powerful tool for wear measurements and how the neural network is an effective algorithm for wear estimation.

Keywords: wear modelling, Archard Model, ASTM Model, Neural Networks Model, Pin-on-disc Test, Talysurf, digital microscope, Alicona

Procedia PDF Downloads 438

Authors: Prangvalai Buasan, Boonrod Sajjakulnukit, Thongchart Bowonthumrongchai

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The demand for biomass pellets in the industrial sector has significantly increased since 2020. The revised version of Thailand’s power development plan as well as the Alternative Energy Development Plan, aims to promote biomass fuel consumption by around 485 MW by 2030. The replacement of solid fossil fuel with biomass pellets will affect medium-term and long-term national benefits for all industries throughout the supply chain. Therefore, the evaluation of environmental and economic impacts throughout the biomass pellet supply chain needs to be performed to provide better insight into the goods and financial flow of this activity. This study extended the national input-output table for the biomass pellet industry and applied the input-output analysis (IOA) method, a sort of macroeconomic analysis, to interpret the result of transactions between industries in the monetary unit when the revised national power development plan was adopted and enforced. Greenhouse gas emissions from consuming energy and raw material through the supply chain are also evaluated. The total intermediate transactions of all economic sectors, which included the biomass pellets sector (CASE 2), increased by 0.02% when compared with the conservative case (CASE 1). The control total, which is the sum of total intermediate transactions and value-added, the control total of CASE 2 is increased by 0.07% when compared with CASE 1. The pellet production process emitted 432.26 MtCO2e per year. The major sharing of the GHG is from the plantation process of raw biomass.

Keywords: input-output analysis, environmental extended input-output analysis, macroeconomic planning, biomass pellets, renewable energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 85

Authors: H. Naseh, M. Mirshams, M. Mirdamadian, H. R. Fazeley

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This paper presents an extension of fuzzy-genetic algorithm multi-objective optimization methodology that could effectively be used to find the overall satisfaction of objective functions (selecting the design variables) in the early stages of design process. The coupling of objective functions due to design variables in an engineering design process will result in difficulties in design optimization problems. In many cases, decision making on design variables conflicts with more than one discipline in system design. In space launch system conceptual design, decision making on some design variable (e.g. oxidizer to fuel mass flow rate O/F) in early stages of the design process is related to objective of liquid propellant engine (specific impulse) and Tanks (structure weight). Then, the primary application of this methodology is the design of a liquid propellant engine with the maximum specific impulse and cylindrical stiffened tank with the minimum weight. To this end, the design problem is established the fuzzy rule set based on designer's expert knowledge with a holistic approach. The independent design variables in this model are oxidizer to fuel mass flow rate, thickness of stringers, thickness of rings, shell thickness. To handle the mentioned problems, a fuzzy-genetic algorithm multi-objective optimization methodology is developed based on Pareto optimal set. Consequently, this methodology is modeled with the one stage of space launch system to illustrate accuracy and efficiency of proposed methodology.

Keywords: cylindrical stiffened tanks, multi-objective, genetic algorithm, fuzzy approach

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Authors: Hossain Samani, Mohammad Ehteram

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In this paper, we consider finite volume method (FVM) in water hammer. We will simulate these techniques on a looped network with complex boundary conditions. After comparing methods, we see the FVM method as the best method. We compare the results of FVM with experimental data. Finite volume using staggered grid is applied for solving water hammer equations.

Keywords: hydraulic transient, water hammer, interpolation, non-liner interpolation

Procedia PDF Downloads 339