Search results for: stochastic correlation

Authors: Natsuki Kishizawa, Keiko Nakano, Hussam Organji, Amer Shaiban, Mohammad Albeirutty

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One of the most important tasks in operating desalination plants using a reverse osmosis (RO) method is preventing RO membrane fouling caused by foulants found in seawater. Optimal design of the pre-treatment process of RO process for plants enables the reduction of foulants. Therefore, a quantitative evaluation of the fouling risk in pre-treated water, which is fed to RO, is required for optimal design. Some measurement methods for water quality such as silt density index (SDI) and total organic carbon (TOC) have been conservatively applied for evaluations. However, these methods have not been effective in some situations for evaluating the fouling risk of RO feed water. Furthermore, stable management of plants will be possible by alerts and appropriate control of the pre-treatment process by using the method if it can be applied to the inline monitoring system for the fouling risk of RO feed water. The purpose of this study is to develop a method to evaluate the fouling risk of RO feed water. We applied a quartz crystal microbalance (QCM) to measure the amount of foulants found in seawater using a sensor whose surface is coated with polyamide thin film, which is the main material of a RO membrane. The increase of the weight of the sensor after a certain length of time in which the sample water passes indicates the fouling risk of the sample directly. We classified the values as “FP: Fouling Potential”. The characteristics of the method are to measure the very small amount of substances in seawater in a short time: < 2h, and from a small volume of the sample water: < 50mL. Using some RO cell filtration units, a higher correlation between the pressure increase given by RO fouling and the FP from the method than SDI and TOC was confirmed in the laboratory-scale test. Then, to establish the correlation in the actual bench-scale RO membrane module, and to confirm the feasibility of the monitoring system as a control tool for the pre-treatment process, we have started a long-term test at an experimental desalination site by the Red Sea in Jeddah, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Implementing inline equipment for the method made it possible to measure FP intermittently (4 times per day) and automatically. Moreover, for two 3-month long operations, the RO operation pressure among feed water samples of different qualities was compared. The pressure increase through a RO membrane module was observed at a high FP RO unit in which feed water was treated by a cartridge filter only. On the other hand, the pressure increase was not observed at a low FP RO unit in which feed water was treated by an ultra-filter during the operation. Therefore, the correlation in an actual scale RO membrane was established in two runs of two types of feed water. The result suggested that the FP method enables the evaluation of the fouling risk of RO feed water.

Keywords: fouling, monitoring, QCM, water quality

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Authors: Philip Vercoe, Ali Hardan

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Samples of 29 Australian wild natives and exotic plants were tested in vitro batch rumen culture system for their methanogenic characteristics and potential usage as feed or antimicrobial to enhance sustainable livestock ruminant production system. The plants were tested for their in vitro rumen fermentation end products properties which include: methane production, total gas pressure, concentrations of total volatile fatty acids, ammonia, and acetate to propionate ratio. All of the plants were produced less methane than the positive control (i.e., oaten chaff) in vitro. Nearly 50 % of plants inhibiting methane by over 50% in comparison to the control. Eremophila granitica had the strongest inhibitory effect about 92 % on methane production comparing with oaten chaff. The exotic weed Arctotheca calendula (Capeweed) had the highest concentration of volatile fatty acids production as well as the highest in total gas pressure among all plants and the control. Some of the acacia species have the lowest production of total gas pressure. The majority of the plants produced more ammonia than the oaten chaff control. The plant species that produced the most ammonia was Codonocarpus cotinifolius, producing over 3 times as much methane as oaten chaff control while the lowest was Eremophila galeata. There was strong positive correlation between methane production and total gas production as well as between total gas production and the concentration of VFA produced with R² = 0.74, R² = 0.84, respectively. While there was weak positive correlation between methane production and the acetate to propionate ratio as well as between the concentration of VFA produced and methane production with R² = 0.41, R² = 0.52, respectively.

Keywords: in vitro Rumen Fermentation, methane, wild Australian native plants, forages

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Authors: Amin AminiKhafri, James M. Dawson-Edwards, Ryan M. Simpson, Simaan M. AbouRizk

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Earned value management (EVM) has been introduced as an integrated method to combine schedule, budget, and work breakdown structure (WBS). EVM provides various indices to demonstrate project performance including the cost performance index (CPI). CPI is also used to forecast final project cost at completion based on the cost performance during the project execution. Knowing the final project cost during execution can initiate corrective actions, which can enhance project outputs. CPI, however, is not constant during the project, and calculating the final project cost using a variable index is an inaccurate and challenging task for practitioners. Since CPI is based on the cumulative progress values and because of the learning curve effect, CPI variation dampens and stabilizes as project progress. Although various definitions for the CPI stability have been proposed in literature, many scholars have agreed upon the definition that considers a project as stable if the CPI at 20% completion varies less than 0.1 from the final CPI. While 20% completion point is recognized as the stability point for military development projects, construction projects stability have not been studied. In the current study, an empirical study was first conducted using construction project data to determine the stability point for construction projects. Early findings have demonstrated that a majority of construction projects stabilize towards completion (i.e., after 70% completion point). To investigate the effect of CPI stability on cost forecast accuracy, the correlation between CPI stability and project cost at completion forecast accuracy was also investigated. It was determined that as projects progress closer towards completion, variation of the CPI decreases and final project cost forecast accuracy increases. Most projects were found to have 90% accuracy in the final cost forecast at 70% completion point, which is inlined with findings from the CPI stability findings. It can be concluded that early stabilization of the project CPI results in more accurate cost at completion forecasts.

Keywords: cost performance index, earned value management, empirical study, final project cost

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Authors: Naragain Phumchusri, Kittitach Pongpairoj

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Overbooking is a very useful revenue management technique that could help reduce costs caused by either undersales or oversales. In this paper, we propose an overbooking model for two types of cars that can minimize the total cost for car rental service. With two types of cars, there is an upgrade possibility for lower type to upper type. This makes the model more complex than one type of cars scenario. We have found that convexity can be proved in this case. Sensitivity analysis of the parameters is conducted to observe the effects of relevant parameters on the optimal solution. Model simplification is proposed using multiple linear regression analysis, which can help estimate the optimal overbooking level using appropriate independent variables. The results show that the overbooking level from multiple linear regression model is relatively close to the optimal solution (with the adjusted R-squared value of at least 72.8%). To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, the total cost was compared with the case where the decision maker uses a naïve method for the overbooking level. It was found that the total cost from optimal solution is only 0.5 to 1 percent (on average) lower than the cost from regression model, while it is approximately 67% lower than the cost obtained by the naïve method. It indicates that our proposed simplification method using regression analysis can effectively perform in estimating the overbooking level.

Keywords: overbooking, car rental industry, revenue management, stochastic model

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Authors: Şefika Dilek Güven, Gülden Küçükakça

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Objective: Learning the process of interaction with patient occurs within the process of nursing education. For this reason, it is considered to provide an opportunity for questioning and rearrangement of nursing education programs by assessing attitudes of nursing students towards caring nurse-patient interaction. Method: This is a descriptive study conducted in order to assess attitudes of nursing students towards caring nurse-patient interaction. The study was conducted with 318 students who were studying at nursing department of Semra and Vefa Küçük Health High School, Nevşehir Hacı Bektaş Veli University in 2015-2016 academic year and agreed to participate in the study. “Personal Information Form” prepared by the researchers utilizing the literature and “Caring Nurse-Patient Interaction Scale (CNPIS)”, who Turkish validity and reliability were conducted by Atar and Aştı, were used in the study. The Cronbach α coefficient of CNPIS was found as 0.973 in the study. Permissions of the institution and participants were received before starting to conduct study. Significance test of the difference between two means, analysis of variance, and correlation analysis were used to assess the data. Results: Average age of nursing students participating in the study was 20.72±1.91 and 74.8% were female, and 28.0% were the fourth-year students. 52.5% of the nursing students stated that they chose nursing profession willingly, 80.2% did not have difficulty in their interactions with patients, and 84.6% did not have difficulty in their social relationships. CNPIS total mean score of nursing students was found to be 295.31±40.95. When the correlation between total CNPIS mean score of the nursing students in terms of some variables was examined; it was determined there was a significant positive correlation between ages of the nursing students and total mean score of CNPIS (r=0.184, p=0.001). CNPIS total mean score was found to be higher in female students compared to male students, in 3rd–year students compared to students studying at other years, in those choosing their profession willingly compared to those choosing their profession unwillingly, in those not having difficulty in relations with the patients compared to those having difficulty, and in those not having difficulty in social relationships compared to those having difficulty. It was determined there was a significant difference between CNPIS total mean scores in terms of the year and state of having difficulty in social relationships (p<0,005). Conclusion: Nursing students had positive attitudes towards caring nurse-patient interactions, attitudes of nursing students, who were female, studying at 3rd year, chose nursing profession willingly, did not have difficulty in patient relations, and did not have difficulty in social relationships, towards caring nurse-patient interaction were found to be more positive. In the line with these results; it can be recommended to organize activities for introducing nursing profession to the youth preparing for the university, to use methods that will increase further communication skills to nursing students during their education, to support students in terms of communication skills, and to involve activities that will strengthen their social relationships.

Keywords: nurse-patient interaction, nursing student, patient, communication

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Authors: Maryam Ghavam Sadri, Maryam Shahrooz

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Background: Nowadays the prevalence of metabolic syndrome (Mets) has taken on a growing trend. Studies have shown the relationship between vitamin D deficiency (VDD) status and Mets in children. Also studies have recorded that exerting strategies for vitamin D status improvement can help prevent Mets in children. This study investigated multiple strategies of prevention of Mets resulting from VDD in children. Methods: This review study has been done by using keywords related to the topic and 54 articles were found (2000-2015) that 25 were selected according to the indicators of Mets, supplementation and fortification of foods with vitamin D and attention to children environment and life style. Results: Studies have suggested the correlation between serum levels of vitamin D with waist circumference (p < 0.0001), systolic blood pressure (p=0.01), HOMA-IR (p=0.001) and HDL cholesterol (p < 0.0001). An inverse correlation between serum 25 (OH) D and HOMA-IR (p = 0.006) and insulin (P = 0.002) has been proved in overweight group. Higher HOMASDS and triglycerides found in vitamin D deficient obese children compared to control group without VDD (p=0.04). After supplementation with vitamin D, serum TG concentration decreases significantly (p=0.04), and improves insulin resistance (p=0.02). The prevalence of VDD is associated with time of watching TV (P < 0.01), hours of physical activity per week (P = 0.01), skipping breakfast (P < 0.001) soda intake (P < 0.001), and milk intake per day (P < 0.01). Conclusion: According to the beneficial role of vitamin D in prevention of Mets and proven relationship between serum levels of vitamin D and Mets indicators, we can prevent childhood Mets through the application of appropriate strategies such as supplementation and food fortification with vitamin D and positive changes in children life style with especial attention to physical activity in exposure of sunlight and their environment condition.

Keywords: children, metabolic syndrome, prevention strategies, vitamin D

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Authors: Keunock Lew, Seungryul Ma

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The paper analyzes risk and expected return of lenders who provide mortgage loans to households in the shared mortgage program of Korea. In 2013, the Korean government introduced the mortgage program to help low income householders to convert their renting into purchasing houses. The financial source for the mortgage program is the Urban Housing Fund set up by the Korean government. Through the program, low income households can borrow money from lenders to buy a house at a very low interest rate (e.g. 1 % per year) for a long time. The motivation of adopting this mortgage program by the Korean government is that the cost of renting houses has been rapidly increased especially in large urban areas during the past decade, which became financial difficulties to low income households who do not have their own houses. As the analysis methodology, the paper uses a spread sheet model for projecting cash flows of the mortgage product over the period of loan contract. It also employs Monte Carlo simulation method to analyze the risk and expected yield of the lenders with assumption that the future housing price and market rate of interest follow a stochastic process. The study results will give valuable implications to the Korean government and lenders who want to stabilize the mortgage program and innovate the related loan products.

Keywords: expected return, Monte Carlo simulation, risk, shared mortgage program

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Authors: Endalkachew Abebe Kebede, Bojin Bojinov, Andon Vasilev Andonov, Orhan Dengiz

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Remote sensing has a potential application in assessing and monitoring the plants' biophysical properties using the spectral responses of plants and soils within the electromagnetic spectrum. However, only a few reports compare the performance of different remote sensing sensors against in-situ field spectral measurement. The current study assessed the potential applications of open data source satellite images (Sentinel 2 and Landsat 9) in estimating the biophysical properties of the wheat crop on a study farm found in the village of OvchaMogila. A Landsat 9 (30 m resolution) and Sentinel-2 (10 m resolution) satellite images with less than 10% cloud cover have been extracted from the open data sources for the period of December 2021 to April 2022. An Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) has been used to capture the spectral response of plant leaves. In addition, SpectraVue 710s Leaf Spectrometer was used to measure the spectral response of the crop in April at five different locations within the same field. The ten most common vegetation indices have been selected and calculated based on the reflectance wavelength range of remote sensing tools used. The soil samples have been collected in eight different locations within the farm plot. The different physicochemical properties of the soil (pH, texture, N, P₂O₅, and K₂O) have been analyzed in the laboratory. The finer resolution images from the UAV and the Leaf Spectrometer have been used to validate the satellite images. The performance of different sensors has been compared based on the measured leaf spectral response and the extracted vegetation indices using the five sampling points. A scatter plot with the coefficient of determination (R2) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the correlation (r) matrix prepared using the corr and heatmap python libraries have been used for comparing the performance of Sentinel 2 and Landsat 9 VIs compared to the drone and SpectraVue 710s spectrophotometer. The soil analysis revealed the study farm plot is slightly alkaline (8.4 to 8.52). The soil texture of the study farm is dominantly Clay and Clay Loam.The vegetation indices (VIs) increased linearly with the growth of the plant. Both the scatter plot and the correlation matrix showed that Sentinel 2 vegetation indices have a relatively better correlation with the vegetation indices of the Buteo dronecompared to the Landsat 9. The Landsat 9 vegetation indices somewhat align better with the leaf spectrometer. Generally, the Sentinel 2 showed a better performance than the Landsat 9. Further study with enough field spectral sampling and repeated UAV imaging is required to improve the quality of the current study.

Keywords: landsat 9, leaf spectrometer, sentinel 2, UAV

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Authors: Antonio Monteiro, Jorge Azevedo, Severiano Silva, Alfredo Teixeira

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The objective of this study was to compare the carcass and in vivo real-time ultrasound measurements (RTU) and their capacity to predict the composition of Serrana goats up to 40% of maturity. Twenty one females (11.1 ± 3.97 kg) and Twenty one males (15.6 ± 5.38 kg) were utilized to made in vivo measurements with a 5 MHz probe (ALOKA 500V scanner) at the 9th-10th, 10th-11th thoracic vertebrae (uT910 and uT1011, respectively), at the 1st- 2nd, 3rd-4th, and 4th-5th lumbar vertebrae (uL12, ul34 and uL45, respectively) and also at the 3rd-4th sternebrae (EEST). It was recorded the images of RTU measurements of Longissimus thoracis et lumborum muscle (LTL) depth (EM), width (LM), perimeter (PM), area (AM) and subcutaneous fat thickness (SFD) above the LTL, as well as the depth of tissues of the sternum (EEST) between the 3rd-4th sternebrae. All RTU images were analyzed using the ImageJ software. After slaughter, the carcasses were stored at 4 ºC for 24 h. After this period the carcasses were divided and the left half was entirely dissected into muscle, dissected fat (subcutaneous fat plus intermuscular fat) and bone. Prior to the dissection measurements equivalent to those obtained in vivo with RTU were recorded. Using the Statistica 5, correlation and regression analyses were performed. The prediction of carcass composition was achieved by stepwise regression procedure, with live weight and RTU measurements with and without transformation of variables to the same dimension. The RTU and carcass measurements, except for SFD measurements, showed high correlation (r > 0.60, P < 0.001). The RTU measurements and the live weight, showed ability to predict carcass composition on muscle (R2 = 0.99, P < 0.001), subcutaneous fat (R2 = 0.41, P < 0.001), intermuscular fat (R2 = 0.84, P < 0.001), dissected fat (R2 = 0.71, P < 0.001) and bone (R2 = 0.94, P < 0.001). The transformation of variables allowed a slight increase of precision, but with the increase in the number of variables, with the exception of subcutaneous fat prediction. In vivo measurements by RTU can be applied to predict kid goat carcass composition, from 5 measurements of RTU and the live weight.

Keywords: carcass, goats, real time, ultrasound

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Authors: Benga Ebouele, Thomas Tengen

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Implementing either periodic or continuous inventory review model within most manufacturing-companies-supply chains as a management tool may incur higher costs. These high costs affect the system flexibility which in turn affects the level of service required to satisfy customers. However, these effects are not clearly understood because the parameters of both inventory review policies (protection demand interval, order quantity, etc.) are not designed to be fully utilized under different and uncertain conditions such as poor manufacturing, supplies and delivery performance. Coming up with a hybrid model which may combine in some sense the feature of both continuous and a periodic inventory review models should be useful. Therefore, there is a need to build and evaluate such hybrid model on the annual total cost, stock out probability and system’s flexibility in order to search for the most cost effective inventory review model. This work also seeks to find the optimal sets of parameters of inventory management under stochastic condition so as to optimise each policy independently. The results reveal that a continuous inventory system always incurs lesser cost than a periodic (R, S) inventory system, but this difference tends to decrease as time goes by. Although the hybrid inventory is the only one that can yield lesser cost over time, it is not always desirable but also natural to use it in order to help the system to meet high performance specification.

Keywords: demand and lead time randomness, hybrid Inventory model, optimization, supply chain

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Authors: Kelechi E. Ezeji

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The inclusion of relevant content in curricula of architecture schools is vital for attainment of Computer Aided Design (CAD) proficiency by graduates. Implementing this content involves, among other variables, the presence of competent tutors. Consequently, this study sought to investigate the importance of personnel recruitment for inclusion of content vital to the implementation of CAD in the curriculum for architecture education. This was with a view to developing a framework for appropriate implementation of CAD curriculum. It was focused on departments of architecture in universities in south-east Nigeria which have been accredited by National Universities Commission. Survey research design was employed. Data were obtained from sources within the study area using questionnaires, personal interviews, physical observation/enumeration and examination of institutional documents. A multi-stage stratified random sampling method was adopted. The first stage of stratification involved random sampling by balloting of the departments. The second stage involved obtaining respondents’ population from the number of staff and students of sample population. Chi Square analysis tool for nominal variables and Pearson’s product moment correlation test for interval variables were used for data analysis. With ρ < 0.5, the study found significant correlation between the number of CAD literate academic staff and use of CAD in design studio/assignments; that increase in the overall number of teaching staff significantly affected total CAD credit units in the curriculum of the department. The implications of these findings were that for successful implementation leading to attainment of CAD proficiency to occur, CAD-literacy should be a factor in the recruitment of staff and a policy of in-house training should be pursued.

Keywords: computer-aided design, education, personnel recruitment, curriculum

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Authors: Zbigniew Wochynski, Justyna Skrzynska, Robert Jedrys, Zdzislaw Kobos

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The aim of the study is to determine the types of motor skills and their impact on achieving results while undergoing Aviation Synthetic Efficiency Test (ASET). The study involved 59 cadets, 21 years-old on average, who are studying on first year for a pilot. The average weight of the respondents is 73.8 kg. The subjects were divided into two groups by weight: up to 73.8 kg -group A (n-30) and above 73,8kg -group B (n-29). All subjects underwent the following tests: running at 40m, 100m, 1000m, 2000m, pull-ups, ASET. In both groups, the cadets were divided into two motor skills types taking into advance 40 m running, pull-ups, 2000 meters running and then subjected to do ASET. There has been shown statistically significant increase in group B in body height, weight and BMI with p <0.0003, p <0.0001, p <0.0001 compared to group A. The results indicate that the dominant motor type in all subjects is the endurance-strength model, which reached the speed V = 1,42m/s in overcoming ASET. This is confirmed by the correlation between 2000m and pull-ups r = 0.37 (p <0.05). In group A, the results indicate that the dominant type of motor is a high-speed-endurance model (26.6%), which reached speed V = 1,42m/s in overcoming ASET. In Group B, there was type of motor speed-strength (20.6%), which reached speed of V = 1.45m/s in overcoming ASET. This confirms the correlation between ASET and pull-ups r = 0.56 (p <0.005). Examined cadets who were having one dominant characteristic achieved worse results is ASET. The best results from all examined cadets in overcoming ASET had the type of motor endurance-strength, in group A endurance-speed model and in group B type of speed-strength

Keywords: ASET, Aviation Synthetic Efficiency Test, motor skills, physical tests, pilot-cadets

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Authors: S. J. Yune, S. Y. Lee, S. J. Im, B. S. Kam, S. Y. Baek

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This study explored whether academic emotion, major satisfaction, and learning flow are associated with academic achievement in medical school. We know that emotion and affective factors are important factors in students' learning and performance. Emotion has taken the stage in much of contemporary educational psychology literature, no longer relegated to secondary status behind traditionally studied cognitive constructs. Medical school students (n=164) completed academic emotion, major satisfaction, and learning flow online survey. Academic performance was operationalized as students' average grade on two semester exams. For data analysis, correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis, hierarchical multiple regression analyses and ANOVA were conducted. The results largely confirmed the hypothesized relations among academic emotion, major satisfaction, learning flow and academic achievement. Positive academic emotion had a correlation with academic achievement (β=.191). Positive emotion had 8.5% explanatory power for academic achievement. Especially, sense of accomplishment had a significant impact on learning performance (β=.265). On the other hand, negative emotion, major satisfaction, and learning flow did not affect academic performance. Also, there were differences in sense of great (F=5.446, p=.001) and interest (F=2.78, p=.043) among positive emotion, boredom (F=3.55, p=.016), anger (F=4.346, p=.006), and petulance (F=3.779, p=.012) among negative emotion by grade. This study suggested that medical students' positive emotion was an important contributor to their academic achievement. At the same time, it is important to consider that some negative emotions can act to increase one’s motivation. Of particular importance is the notion that instructors can and should create learning environment that foster positive emotion for students. In doing so, instructors improve their chances of positively impacting students’ achievement emotions, as well as their subsequent motivation, learning, and performance. This result had an implication for medical educators striving to understand the personal emotional factors that influence learning and performance in medical training.

Keywords: academic achievement, learning emotion, learning flow, major satisfaction

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Authors: Magdalena Barbara Kaziuk, Waldemar Kosiba, Marek Jan Kuzniewski

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Introduction: Vitamin D3 has a proven pleiotropic effect, not only responsible for calcium and phosphate management, but also influencing normal functioning of the whole body. Aim: Evaluation of vitamin D3 resources and its effect on a nutritional status, obesity type and glomerular filtration in kidney transplant recipients. Methods: Group of 152 (81 women and 71 men, average age 47.8 ± 11.6 years) patients with a functioning renal transplant their body composition was assessed using the bioimpendance method (BIA) and anthropometric measurements more than 3 months after the transplant. The nutritional status and the obesity type were determined with the Waist to Height Ratio (WHtR) and the Waist to Hip Ratio (WHR). 25- Hydroxyvitamin D3 (25 (OH)D3) was determined, together with its correlation with the obesity type and the glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) calculated with the MDRD formula. Results: The mean 25 (OH)D3 level was 20.4 ng/ml. 30ng/ml was considered as a minimum correct level 22,7% of patients from the study group were classified to be a correct body weight, 56,7% of participants had an android type and 20,6% had a gynoid type. Significant correlation was observed between 25 (OH)D3 deficiency and abdominal obesity (p < 0.005) in patients. Furthermore, a statistically significant relationship was demonstrated between the 25 (OH)D3 levels and eGFR in patients after a kidney transplant. Patients with an android body type had lower eGFR versus those with the gynoid body type (p=0.004). Conclusions: Correct diet in patients after a kidney transplant determines minimum recommended serum levels of vitamin D3. Excessive fatty tissue, low levels of 25 (OH)D3), may be a predictor for android obesity and renal injury; therefore, correct diet and pharmacological management together with physical activities adapted to the physical fitness level of a patient are necessary.

Keywords: kidney transplantation, glomerular filtration rate, obesity, vitamin D3

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Authors: Wael Salah Shendy, Moataz Mohamed EL Semary, Hosam Salah Murad, Adham A. Mohamed

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Background: Cervicogenic headache is a major problem in many people suffering from upper cervical dysfunction with a great conflict in its physical therapy management. Objectives: To determine the effect of C1-C2 Mulligan SNAGs mobilizations on cervicogenic headache and associated dizziness symptoms. Methods: Forty-eight patients with cervicogenic headache included in the study; from the outpatient clinic of Faculty of Physical Therapy, Cairo University, and New Cairo outpatient clinics, were randomly assigned into three equal groups; group A ( Headache SNAG), group B (C1-C2 SNAG rotation) and group C (combined). Their mean age was (29.37 ± 2.6), (29.31 ± 2.54) and (29.68 ± 2.65). Neck Disability Index used to examine neck pain intensity and CEH symptoms. 6 Items Headache Impact test '6-HIT' scale used to examine headache severity and its adverse effects on social life and functions. Flexion-Rotation Test 'FRT' also used to assess rotation ROM at the level of C1-C2 by 'CROM' device. Dizziness Handicap Inventory 'DHI' scale was used to evaluate dizziness symptoms. Evaluation is done pre and post treatment, and comparison between groups was quantified. Correlations between the examined parameters were also measured. Headache SNAG and C1-C2 Rotation SNAGs were done separately in group (A- B) and combined in group C as a treatment intervention. Results: Group C has Significant improvement in whole parameters compared to group A and B, positive correlation was found between NDI and 6-HIT scores compared to negative correlation between NDI and DHI scores. Conclusion: SNAGs mobilizations used in the study were effective in reducing cervicogenic headache and dizziness symptoms in all groups with a noticeable improvement in the combined group.

Keywords: cervicogenic headache, cervical headache snag, cervical snag half rotation, cervical dizziness

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Authors: Abderrazak Bannari, Ghadeer Kadhem

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The objectives of this paper are the validation and the evaluation of MBES-CARIS BASE surface data performance for bathymetric mapping of shallow water in the Kingdom of Bahrain. The latter is an archipelago with a total land area of about 765.30 km², approximately 126 km of coastline and 8,000 km² of marine area, located in the Arabian Gulf, east of Saudi Arabia and west of Qatar (26° 00’ N, 50° 33’ E). To achieve our objectives, bathymetric attributed grid files (X, Y, and depth) generated from the coverage of ship-track MBSE data with 300 x 300 m cells, processed with CARIS-HIPS, were downloaded from the General Bathymetric Chart of the Oceans (GEBCO). Then, brought into ArcGIS and converted into a raster format following five steps: Exportation of GEBCO BASE surface data to the ASCII file; conversion of ASCII file to a points shape file; extraction of the area points covering the water boundary of the Kingdom of Bahrain and multiplying the depth values by -1 to get the negative values. Then, the simple Kriging method was used in ArcMap environment to generate a new raster bathymetric grid surface of 30×30 m cells, which was the basis of the subsequent analysis. Finally, for validation purposes, 2200 bathymetric points were extracted from a medium scale nautical map (1:100 000) considering different depths over the Bahrain national water boundary. The nautical map was scanned, georeferenced and overlaid on the MBES-CARIS generated raster bathymetric grid surface (step 5 above), and then homologous depth points were selected. Statistical analysis, expressed as a linear error at the 95% confidence level, showed a strong correlation coefficient (R² = 0.96) and a low RMSE (± 0.57 m) between the nautical map and derived MBSE-CARIS depths if we consider only the shallow areas with depths of less than 10 m (about 800 validation points). When we consider only deeper areas (> 10 m) the correlation coefficient is equal to 0.73 and the RMSE is equal to ± 2.43 m while if we consider the totality of 2200 validation points including all depths, the correlation coefficient is still significant (R² = 0.81) with satisfactory RMSE (± 1.57 m). Certainly, this significant variation can be caused by the MBSE that did not completely cover the bottom in several of the deeper pockmarks because of the rapid change in depth. In addition, steep slopes and the rough seafloor probably affect the acquired MBSE raw data. In addition, the interpolation of missed area values between MBSE acquisition swaths-lines (ship-tracked sounding data) may not reflect the true depths of these missed areas. However, globally the results of the MBES-CARIS data are very appropriate for bathymetric mapping of shallow water areas.

Keywords: bathymetry mapping, multibeam echosounder systems, CARIS-HIPS, shallow water

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Authors: Niklas Panten, Eberhard Abele

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This paper presents a novel approach for real-time and near-optimal control of industrial smart grids by deep reinforcement learning (DRL). To achieve highly energy-efficient factory systems, the energetic linkage of machines, technical building equipment and the building itself is desirable. However, the increased complexity of the interacting sub-systems, multiple time-variant target values and stochastic influences by the production environment, weather and energy markets make it difficult to efficiently control the energy production, storage and consumption in the hybrid industrial smart grids. The studied deep reinforcement learning approach allows to explore the solution space for proper control policies which minimize a cost function. The deep neural network of the DRL agent is based on a multilayer perceptron (MLP), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and convolutional layers. The agent is trained within multiple Modelica-based factory simulation environments by the Advantage Actor Critic algorithm (A2C). The DRL controller is evaluated by means of the simulation and then compared to a conventional, rule-based approach. Finally, the results indicate that the DRL approach is able to improve the control performance and significantly reduce energy respectively operating costs of industrial smart grids.

Keywords: industrial smart grids, energy efficiency, deep reinforcement learning, optimal control

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Authors: A. Alyaaria, b, J. P. Wignerona, A. Ducharneb, Y. Kerrc, P. de Rosnayd, R. de Jeue, A. Govinda, A. Al Bitarc, C. Albergeld, J. Sabaterd, C. Moisya, P. Richaumec, A. Mialonc

Abstract:

Global Level-3 surface soil moisture (SSM) maps from the passive microwave soil moisture and Ocean Salinity satellite (SMOSL3) have been released. To further improve the Level-3 retrieval algorithm, evaluation of the accuracy of the spatio-temporal variability of the SMOS Level 3 products (referred to here as SMOSL3) is necessary. In this study, a comparative analysis of SMOSL3 with a SSM product derived from the observations of the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer (AMSR-E) computed by implementing the Land Parameter Retrieval Model (LPRM) algorithm, referred to here as AMSRM, is presented. The comparison of both products (SMSL3 and AMSRM) were made against SSM products produced by a numerical weather prediction system (SM-DAS-2) at ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) for the 03/2010-09/2011 period at global scale. The latter product was considered here a 'reference' product for the inter-comparison of the SMOSL3 and AMSRM products. Three statistical criteria were used for the evaluation, the correlation coefficient (R), the root-mean-squared difference (RMSD), and the bias. Global maps of these criteria were computed, taking into account vegetation information in terms of biome types and Leaf Area Index (LAI). We found that both the SMOSL3 and AMSRM products captured well the spatio-temporal variability of the SM-DAS-2 SSM products in most of the biomes. In general, the AMSRM products overestimated (i.e., wet bias) while the SMOSL3 products underestimated (i.e., dry bias) SSM in comparison to the SM-DAS-2 SSM products. In term of correlation values, the SMOSL3 products were found to better capture the SSM temporal dynamics in highly vegetated biomes ('Tropical humid', 'Temperate Humid', etc.) while best results for AMSRM were obtained over arid and semi-arid biomes ('Desert temperate', 'Desert tropical', etc.). When removing the seasonal cycles in the SSM time variations to compute anomaly values, better correlation with the SM-DAS-2 SSM anomalies were obtained with SMOSL3 than with AMSRM, in most of the biomes with the exception of desert regions. Eventually, we showed that the accuracy of the remotely sensed SSM products is strongly related to LAI. Both the SMOSL3 and AMSRM (slightly better) SSM products correlate well with the SM-DAS2 products over regions with sparse vegetation for values of LAI < 1 (these regions represent almost 50% of the pixels considered in this global study). In regions where LAI>1, SMOSL3 outperformed AMSRM with respect to SM-DAS-2: SMOSL3 had almost consistent performances up to LAI = 6, whereas AMSRM performance deteriorated rapidly with increasing values of LAI.

Keywords: remote sensing, microwave, soil moisture, AMSR-E, SMOS

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Authors: Imen Boudali, Marwa Ragmoun

Abstract:

The Vehicle Routing Problem with Hard Time Windows (VRPHTW) is a basic distribution management problem that models many real-world problems. The objective of the problem is to deliver a set of customers with known demands on minimum-cost vehicle routes while satisfying vehicle capacity and hard time windows for customers. In this paper, we propose to deal with our optimization problem by using a new hybrid stochastic algorithm based on two metaheuristics: Chemical Reaction Optimization (CRO) and Greedy Randomized Adaptive Search Procedure (GRASP). The first method is inspired by the natural process of chemical reactions enabling the transformation of unstable substances with excessive energy to stable ones. During this process, the molecules interact with each other through a series of elementary reactions to reach minimum energy for their existence. This property is embedded in CRO to solve the VRPHTW. In order to enhance the population diversity throughout the search process, we integrated the GRASP in our method. Simulation results on the base of Solomon’s benchmark instances show the very satisfactory performances of the proposed approach.

Keywords: Benchmark Problems, Combinatorial Optimization, Vehicle Routing Problem with Hard Time Windows, Meta-heuristics, Hybridization, GRASP, CRO

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Authors: Heba Esaily, Rawhia Eledl, Daila Aboelela, Rasha Noreldin

Abstract:

Objective: Assess serum level of Transforming growth factor beta 2 (TGF-β2) and Matrilin-3 (MATN3) SNP6 polymorphism in osteoarthritic patients Background: Osteoarthritis (OA) is a musculoskeletal disease characterized by pain and joint stiffness. TGF-β 2 is involved in chondrogenesis and osteogenesis, It has found that MATN3 gene and protein expression was correlated with the extent of tissue damage in OA. Findings suggest that regulation of MATN3 expression is essential for maintenance of the cartilage extracellular matrix microenvironment Subjects and Methods: 72 cases of primary OA (56 with knee OA and 16 with generalized OA were compared with that of 18 healthy controls. Radiographs were scored with the Kellgren-Lawrence scale. Serum TGF-β2 was measured by using (ELISA), levels of marker were correlated to radiographic grading of disease and MATN3 SNP6 polymorphism was determined by (PCR-RFLP). Results: MATN3 SNP6 polymorphism and serum level of TGF-β2 were higher in OA compared with controls. Genotype, NN and N allele frequency were higher in patients with OA compared with controls. NN genotype and N allele frequency were higher in knee osteoarthritis than generalized OA. Significant positive correlation between level of TGFβ2 and radiographic grading in group with knee OA, but no correlation between serum level of TGFβ2 and radiographic grading in generalized OA. Conclusion: MATN3 SNP6 polymorphism and TGF-β2 implicated in the pathogenesis of osteoarthritis. Association of N/N genotype with primary osteoarthritis emphasizes on the need for prospective study include larger sample size to confirm the results of the present study.

Keywords: Matrilin-3, transforming growth factor beta 2, primary osteoarthritis, knee osteoarthritis

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Authors: Hoa Thi Hoang, Stephan Sass, Michael U. Kumke

Abstract:

Concanavalin A (conA) is a protein has been widely used in sensor system based on its specific binding to α-D-Glucose or α-D-Manose. For glucose sensor using conA, either fluoresence based techniques with intensity based or lifetime based are used. In this research, liposomes made from phospholipids were used as a biomimetic membrane system. In a first step, novel building blocks containing perylene labeled glucose units were added to the system and used to decorate the surface of the liposomes. Upon the binding between rhodamine labeled con A to the glucose units at the biomimetic membrane surface, a Förster resonance energy transfer system can be formed which combines unique fluorescence properties of perylene (e.g., high fluorescence quantum yield, no triplet formation) and its high hydrophobicity for efficient anchoring in membranes to form a novel probe for the investigation of sugar-driven binding reactions at biomimetic surfaces. Two glucose-labeled perylene derivatives were synthesized with different spacer length between the perylene and glucose unit in order to probe the binding of conA. The binding interaction was fully characterized by using high-end fluorescence techniques. Steady-state and time-resolved fluorescence techniques (e.g., fluorescence depolarization) in combination with single-molecule fluorescence spectroscopy techniques (fluorescence correlation spectroscopy, FCS) were used to monitor the interaction with conA. Base on the fluorescence depolarization, the rotational correlation times and the alteration in the diffusion coefficient (determined by FCS) the binding of the conA to the liposomes carrying the probe was studied. Moreover, single pair FRET experiments using pulsed interleaved excitation are used to characterize in detail the binding of conA to the liposome on a single molecule level avoiding averaging out effects.

Keywords: concanavalin A, FRET, sensor, biomimetic membrane

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Authors: Tehreem Fatima, Enjun Xia

Abstract:

The research investigates the relationship between total oil consumption and transport oil consumption, GDP, oil price, and oil reserve in order to forecast future oil demand in China. Annual time series data is used over the period of 1980 to 2015, and for this purpose, an oil demand function is estimated by applying structural time series model (STSM). The technique also uncovers the Underline energy demand trend (UEDT) for China oil demand and GDP, oil reserve, oil price and UEDT are considering important drivers of China oil demand. The long-run elasticity of total oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.04) respectively while GDP, oil reserve, and price remain (0.17; 0.23; -0.05) respectively. Moreover, the Estimated results of long-run elasticity of transport oil consumption with respect to GDP and price are (0.5, -0.00) respectively long-run estimates remain (0.28; 37.76;-37.8) for GDP, oil reserve, and price respectively. For both model estimated underline energy demand trend (UEDT) remains nonlinear and stochastic and with an increasing trend of (UEDT) and based on estimated equations, it is predicted that China total oil demand somewhere will be 9.9 thousand barrel per day by 2025 as compare to 9.4 thousand barrel per day in 2015, while transport oil demand predicting value is 9.0 thousand barrel per day by 2020 as compare to 8.8 thousand barrel per day in 2015.

Keywords: china, forecasting, oil, structural time series model (STSM), underline energy demand trend (UEDT)

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Authors: Khiari Nor El Houda, Hiouani Amira Sarra

Abstract:

Many EFL students with high capacities are hidden because they suffer from speaking anxiety (SA). Most of them find public speaking much demanding. They feel unable to communicate, they fear to make mistakes and they fear negative evaluation or being called on. With the growing number of the learners who suffer from foreign language speaking anxiety (FLSA), it is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore its harmful outcomes on their performance and success, especially during their first contact with the pupils, as they will be teaching in the near future. Different researchers suggested different ways to minimize the negative effects of FLSA. The present study sheds light on emotional intelligence skills training as an effective strategy not only to influence public speaking success but also to help pre-service EFL teachers lessen their speaking anxiety and eventually to prepare them for their professional career. A quasi-experiment was used in order to examine the research hypothesis. We worked with two groups of third-year EFL students at Oum El Bouaghi University. The Foreign Language Classroom Anxiety Scale (FLCAS) and the Emotional Quotient Inventory (EQ-i) were used to collect data about the participants’ FLSA and EI levels. The analysis of the data has yielded that the assumption that there is a negative correlation between EI and FLSA was statistically validated by the Pearson Correlation Test, concluding that, the more emotionally intelligent the individual is the less anxious s/he will be. In addition, the lack of amelioration in the results of the control group and the noteworthy improvement in the experimental group results led us to conclude that EI skills training was an effective strategy in minimizing the FLSA level and therefore, we confirmed our research hypothesis.

Keywords: emotional intelligence, emotional intelligence skills training, EQ-I, FLCAS, foreign language speaking anxiety, pre-service EFL teachers

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Authors: Adewale Oladapo, Carolyn A. Afolami

Abstract:

Agricultural production should be the major financial contributor to the Nigerian economy; however, the petroleum sector had taken the importance attached to this sector. The situation tends to be more worsening unless necessary attention is given to adequate credit supply among food crop farmers. This research analyses the effect of credit use on the technical efficiency of cassava farmers in Ondo State, Nigeria. Primary data were collected from two hundred randomly selected cassava farmers through a multistage sampling procedure in the study area. Data were analysed using descriptive statistics and stochastic frontier analysis (SFA). Findings revealed that 95.0% of the farmers were male while 56.0% had no formal education and were married. The SFA showed that cassava farmer’s efficiency increased with farm size, herbicide and planting material at 5%,10% and 1% respectively but decreased with fertilizer application at 1% level while farmers’ age, education, household size, experience and access to credit increased technical inefficiency at 10%. The study concluded that cassava farmers are technically inefficient in the use of farm resources and recommended that adequate and workable agricultural policy measures that will ensure availability and efficient fertilizer distribution should be put in place to increase efficiency. Furthermore, the government should encourage youth participation in cassava production and ensure improvement in farmer’s access to credit to increase farmer’s technical efficiency.

Keywords: agriculture, access to credit, cassava farmers, technical efficiency

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Authors: Felipa de Mello-Sampayo

Abstract:

The aim of this study is to undertake, from patient’s perspective, the timing and probability of using teledermatology, comparing it with a conventional referral system. The dynamic stochastic model’s main value-added consists of the concrete application to patients waiting for dermatology surgical intervention. Patients with low health level uncertainty must use teledermatology treatment as soon as possible, which is precisely when the teledermatology is least valuable. The results of the model were then tested empirically with the teledermatology network covering the area served by the Hospital Garcia da Horta, Portugal, links the primary care centers of 24 health districts with the hospital’s dermatology department via the corporate intranet of the Portuguese healthcare system. Health level volatility can be understood as the hazard of developing skin cancer and the trend of health level as the bias of developing skin lesions. The results of the survival analysis suggest that the theoretical model can explain the use of teledermatology. It depends negatively on the volatility of patients' health, and positively on the trend of health, i.e., the lower the risk of developing skin cancer and the younger the patients, the more presurgical teledermatology one expects to occur. Presurgical teledermatology also depends positively on out-of-pocket expenses and negatively on the opportunity costs of teledermatology, i.e., the lower the benefit missed by using teledermatology, the more presurgical teledermatology one expects to occur.

Keywords: teledermatology, wait time, uncertainty, opportunity cost, survival analysis

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Authors: Yerbolat Iztleuov

Abstract:

Stochastic effects, which are currently largely associated with exposure to ionizing radiation or a combination of ionizing radiation with other chemical, physical, and biological agents, are expressed in the form of various mutations. In the first stage of the study, rats of both sexes were divided into 3 groups. 1st - control group, animals of the 2nd group were exposed to gamma radiation at a dose of 0.2 Gy. The third group received hexavalent chromium in a dose of 180 mg/ l with drinking water for a month before irradiation and a day after the end of chromium consumption and was subjected to total gamma irradiation at a dose of 0.2 Gy. The second stage of the experiment. After 3 days, the males were mated with the females. The obtained offspring were studied for peroxidation, cytokine profile and micronucleus in the nuclei. This study shows that 5-month-old offspring whose parents were exposed to combined exposure to chromium and γ-irradiation exhibit hereditary instability of the genome, decreased activity of antioxidant enzymes and sulfhydryl blood groups, and increased levels of lipid peroxidation. There is also an increase in the level of inflammatory markers (IL-6 and TNF) in the blood plasma against the background of a decrease in anti-inflammatory cytokine (IL-10). Thus, the combined effect of hexavalent chromium and ionizing radiation can lead to the development of an oncological process.

Keywords: hexavalent chromium, ionizing radiation, first generation, oxidative stress, cytokines, mutagenesis, cancer

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Authors: Tan Zhang, Zhongjian Wang, Jack Xin, Zhiwen Zhang

Abstract:

We aim to efficiently compute the spreading speeds of reaction-diffusion-advection (RDA) fronts in divergence-free random flows under the Kolmogorov-Petrovsky-Piskunov (KPP) nonlinearity. We study a stochastic interacting particle method (IPM) for the reduced principal eigenvalue (Lyapunov exponent) problem of an associated linear advection-diffusion operator with spatially random coefficients. The Fourier representation of the random advection field and the Feynman-Kac (FK) formula of the principal eigenvalue (Lyapunov exponent) form the foundation of our method implemented as a genetic evolution algorithm. The particles undergo advection-diffusion and mutation/selection through a fitness function originated in the FK semigroup. We analyze the convergence of the algorithm based on operator splitting and present numerical results on representative flows such as 2D cellular flow and 3D Arnold-Beltrami-Childress (ABC) flow under random perturbations. The 2D examples serve as a consistency check with semi-Lagrangian computation. The 3D results demonstrate that IPM, being mesh-free and self-adaptive, is simple to implement and efficient for computing front spreading speeds in the advection-dominated regime for high-dimensional random flows on unbounded domains where no truncation is needed.

Keywords: KPP front speeds, random flows, Feynman-Kac semigroups, interacting particle method, convergence analysis

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Authors: Phakamani Xaba, Robert Huberts, Bilainu Oboirien

Abstract:

The present study was aimed at developing & comparing two neural-network-based predictive models to predict shelf-life/product age of South African margarine using free fatty acid (FFA), water droplet size (D3.3), water droplet distribution (e-sigma), moisture content, peroxide value (PV), anisidine valve (AnV) and total oxidation (totox) value as input variables to the model. Brick margarine products which had varying ages ranging from fresh i.e. week 0 to week 47 were sourced. The brick margarine products which had been stored at 10 & 25 °C and were characterized. JMP and MATLAB models to predict shelf-life/ margarine age were developed and their performances were compared. The key performance indicators to evaluate the model performances were correlation coefficient (CC), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) relative to the actual data. The MATLAB-developed model showed a better performance in all three performance indicators. The correlation coefficient of the MATLAB model was 99.86% versus 99.74% for the JMP model, the RMSE was 0.720 compared to 1.005 and the MAPE was 7.4% compared to 8.571%. The MATLAB model was selected to be the most accurate, and then, the number of hidden neurons/ nodes was optimized to develop a single predictive model. The optimized MATLAB with 10 neurons showed a better performance compared to the models with 1 & 5 hidden neurons. The developed models can be used by margarine manufacturers, food research institutions, researchers etc, to predict shelf-life/ margarine product age, optimize addition of antioxidants, extend shelf-life of products and proactively troubleshoot for problems related to changes which have an impact on shelf-life of margarine without conducting expensive trials.

Keywords: margarine shelf-life, predictive modelling, neural networks, oil oxidation

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Authors: Sarah Almuhayya, Andrew Mcbain, Gavin Humphreys

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Background. The microbiome of the upper respiratory tract (URT) has received less research attention than other body sites. This study aims to investigate the microbial ecology of the human URT with a focus on the antagonism between the corynebacteria and staphylococci. Methods. Mucosal swabs were collected from the anterior nares and nasal turbinates of 20 healthy adult subjects. Genomic DNA amplification targeting the (V4) of the 16Sr RNA gene was conducted and analyzed using QIIME. Nasal swab isolates were cultured and identified using near full-length sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene. Isolates identified as corynebacteria or staphylococci were typed using (rep-PCR). Antagonism was determined using an agar-based inhibition assay. Results. Four major bacterial phyla (Actinobacteria, Bacteroidetes, Firmicutes, and Proteobacteria) were identified from all volunteers. The typing of cultured staphylococci and corynebacteria suggested that intra-individual strain diversity was limited. Analysis of generated nasal microbiota profiles suggested an inverse correlation in terms of relative abundance between staphylococci and corynebacteria. Despite the apparent antagonism between these genera, it was limited when investigated on agar. Of 1000 pairwise interactions, observable zones of inhibition were only reported between a single strain of C.pseudodiphtheriticum and S.aureus. Imaging under EM revealed this effect to be bactericidal with clear lytic effects on staphylococcal cell morphology. Conclusion. Nasal microbiota is complex, but culturable staphylococci and corynebacteria were limited in terms of clone type. Analysis of generated nasal microbiota profiles suggested an inverse correlation in terms of relative abundance between these genera suggesting an antagonism or competition between these taxonomic groups.

Keywords: nasal, microbiota, S.aureus, microbioal interaction

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Authors: Jose A. Alvarez Aldegunde, Adrian Fernandez Sanchez, Matthew D. Menden, Bernardo Vila Rodriguez

Abstract:

Up to five statistical pre-processings have been carried out considering the pollutant records of the stations present in Cartagena de Indias, Colombia, also taking into account the childhood asthma incidence surveys conducted in hospitals in the city by the Health Ministry of Colombia for this study. These pre-processings have consisted of different techniques such as the determination of the quality of data collection, determination of the quality of the registration network, identification and debugging of errors in data collection, completion of missing data and purified data, as well as the improvement of the time scale of records. The characterization of the quality of the data has been conducted by means of density analysis of the pollutant registration stations using ArcGis Software and through mass balance techniques, making it possible to determine inconsistencies in the records relating the registration data between stations following the linear regression. The results obtained in this process have highlighted the positive quality in the pollutant registration process. Consequently, debugging of errors has allowed us to identify certain data as statistically non-significant in the incidence and series of contamination. This data, together with certain missing records in the series recorded by the measuring stations, have been completed by statistical imputation equations. Following the application of these prior processes, the basic series of incidence data for respiratory disease and pollutant records have allowed the characterization of the influence of pollutants on respiratory diseases such as, for example, childhood asthma. This characterization has been carried out using statistical correlation methods, including visual correlation, simple linear regression correlation and spectral analysis with PAST Software which identifies maximum periodicity cycles and minimums under the formula of the Lomb periodgram. In relation to part of the results obtained, up to eleven maximums and minimums considered contemporary between the incidence records and the particles have been identified taking into account the visual comparison. The spectral analyses that have been performed on the incidence and the PM2.5 have returned a series of similar maximum periods in both registers, which are at a maximum during a period of one year and another every 25 days (0.9 and 0.07 years). The bivariate analysis has managed to characterize the variable "Daily Vehicular Flow" in the ninth position of importance of a total of 55 variables. However, the statistical correlation has not obtained a favorable result, having obtained a low value of the R2 coefficient. The series of analyses conducted has demonstrated the importance of the influence of pollutants such as PM2.5 in the development of childhood asthma in Cartagena. The quantification of the influence of the variables has been able to determine that there is a 56% probability of dependence between PM2.5 and childhood respiratory asthma in Cartagena. Considering this justification, the study could be completed through the application of the BenMap Software, throwing a series of spatial results of interpolated values of the pollutant contamination records that exceeded the established legal limits (represented by homogeneous units up to the neighborhood level) and results of the impact on the exacerbation of pediatric asthma. As a final result, an economic estimate (in Colombian Pesos) of the monthly and individual savings derived from the percentage reduction of the influence of pollutants in relation to visits to the Hospital Emergency Room due to asthma exacerbation in pediatric patients has been granted.

Keywords: Asthma Incidence, BenMap, PM2.5, Statistical Analysis

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