Search results for: climate tree

Authors: Chhabi Paudel

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The food and nutrition security of the people of the mountain of Karnali province of Nepal is dependent on traditional crop biodiversity. The altitude range of the study area is 1800 meters to 2700 meters above sea level. The climate is temperate to alpine. Farmers are adopting subsistent oriented diversified farming systems and selected crop species, cultivars, and local production systems by their own long adaptation mechanism. The major crop species are finger millet, proso millet, foxtail millet, potato, barley, wheat, mountain rice, buckwheat, Amaranths, medicinal plants, and many vegetable species. The genetic and varietal diversity of those underutilized indigenous crops is also very high, which has sustained farming even in uneven climatic events. Biodiversity provides production synergy, inputs, and other agro-ecological services for self-sustainability. But increase in human population and urban accessibility are seen as threats to biodiversity conservation. So integrated conservation measures are suggested, including agro-tourism and other monetary benefits to the farmers who conserve the local biodiversity.

Keywords: crop biodiversity, climate change, in-situ conservation, resilience, sustainability, agrotourism

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Authors: Tamas Garamhegyi, Jozsef Kovacs, Rita Pongracz, Peter Tanos, Balazs Trasy, Norbert Magyar, Istvan G. Hatvani

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Like most environmental processes, shallow groundwater fluctuation under natural circumstances also behaves periodically. With the statistical tools at hand, it can easily be determined if a period exists in the data or not. Thus, the question may be raised: Does the estimated average period time characterize the whole time period, or not? This is especially important in the case of such complex phenomena as shallow groundwater fluctuation, driven by numerous factors. Because of the continuous changes in the oscillating components of shallow groundwater time series, the most appropriate method should be used to investigate its periodicity, this is wavelet spectrum analysis. The aims of the research were to investigate the periodic behavior of the shallow groundwater time series of an agriculturally important and drought sensitive region in Central-Eastern Europe and its relationship to the European pressure action centers. During the research ~216 shallow groundwater observation wells located in the eastern part of the Great Hungarian Plain with a temporal coverage of 50 years were scanned for periodicity. By taking the full-time interval as 100%, the presence of any period could be determined in percentages. With the complex hydrogeological/meteorological model developed in this study, non-periodic time intervals were found in the shallow groundwater levels. On the local scale, this phenomenon linked to drought conditions, and on a regional scale linked to the maxima of the regional air pressures in the Gulf of Genoa. The study documented an important link between shallow groundwater levels and climate variables/indices facilitating the necessary adaptation strategies on national and/or regional scales, which have to take into account the predictions of drought-related climatic conditions.

Keywords: climate change, drought, groundwater periodicity, wavelet spectrum and coherence analyses

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Authors: Muhammad Nasar-u-Minallah, Dagmar Haase, Salman Qureshi

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In a rapidly growing developing country cities are becoming more urbanized leading to modifications in urban climate. Rapid urbanization, especially unplanned urban land expansion, together with climate change has a profound impact on the urban settlement and urban thermal environment. Cities, particularly Pakistan are facing remarkably environmental issues and uneven development, and thus it is important to strengthen the investigation of urban environmental pressure brought by land-use changes and urbanization. The present study investigated the long term modification of the urban environment by urbanization utilizing Spatio-temporal dynamics of land-use change, urban population data, urban heat islands, monthly maximum, and minimum temperature of thirty years, multi remote sensing imageries, and spectral indices such as Normalized Difference Built-up Index and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index. The results indicate rapid growth in an urban built-up area and a reduction in vegetation cover in the last three decades (1990-2020). A positive correlation between urban heat islands and Normalized Difference Built-up Index, whereas a negative correlation between urban heat islands and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index clearly shows how urbanization is affecting the local environment. The increase in air and land surface temperature temperatures is dangerous to human comfort. Practical approaches, such as increasing the urban green spaces and proper planning of the cities, have been suggested to help prevent further modification of the urban thermal environment by urbanization. The findings of this work are thus important for multi-sectorial use in the cities of Pakistan. By taking into consideration these results, the urban planners, decision-makers, and local government can make different policies to mitigate the urban land use impacts on the urban thermal environment in Pakistan.

Keywords: land use, urban environment, local climate, Lahore

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Authors: M. F. Chow, M. F. Abu Bakar

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Green roof system is considered a relatively new concept in Malaysia even though it has been implemented widely in the developed countries. Generally, green roofs provide many benefits such as enhancing aesthetical quality of the built environment, reduce urban heat island effect, reduce energy consumption, improve stormwater attenuation, and reduce noise pollution. A better understanding on the implementation of green roof system in Malaysia is crucial, as Malaysia’s climate is different if compared with the climate in temperate countries where most of the green roof studies have been conducted. This study has concentrated on the technical aspect of green roof system which focuses on i) types of plants and method of planting; ii) engineering design for green roof system; iii) its hydrological performance on reducing stormwater runoff; and iv) benefits of green roofs with respect to energy. Literature review has been conducted to identify the development and obstacles associated with green roofs systems in Malaysia. The study had identified the challenges and potentials of green roofs development in Malaysia. This study also provided the recommendations on standard design and strategies on the implementation of green roofs in Malaysia in the near future.

Keywords: engineering design, green roof, sustainable development, tropical countries

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Authors: Tigabu Dagne Akal

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While advances in computer and communications technology have made the network ubiquitous, they have also rendered networked systems vulnerable to malicious attacks devised from a distance. These attacks or intrusions start with attackers infiltrating a network through a vulnerable host and then launching further attacks on the local network or Intranet. Nowadays, system administrators and network professionals can attempt to prevent such attacks by developing intrusion detection tools and systems using data mining technology. In this study, the experiments were conducted following the Knowledge Discovery in Database Process Model. The Knowledge Discovery in Database Process Model starts from selection of the datasets. The dataset used in this study has been taken from Massachusetts Institute of Technology Lincoln Laboratory. After taking the data, it has been pre-processed. The major pre-processing activities include fill in missed values, remove outliers; resolve inconsistencies, integration of data that contains both labelled and unlabelled datasets, dimensionality reduction, size reduction and data transformation activity like discretization tasks were done for this study. A total of 21,533 intrusion records are used for training the models. For validating the performance of the selected model a separate 3,397 records are used as a testing set. For building a predictive model for intrusion detection J48 decision tree and the Naïve Bayes algorithms have been tested as a classification approach for both with and without feature selection approaches. The model that was created using 10-fold cross validation using the J48 decision tree algorithm with the default parameter values showed the best classification accuracy. The model has a prediction accuracy of 96.11% on the training datasets and 93.2% on the test dataset to classify the new instances as normal, DOS, U2R, R2L and probe classes. The findings of this study have shown that the data mining methods generates interesting rules that are crucial for intrusion detection and prevention in the networking industry. Future research directions are forwarded to come up an applicable system in the area of the study.

Keywords: intrusion detection, data mining, computer science, data mining

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Authors: Anderson Ngowa Chembe, John Olukuru

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Greenhouse emissions by human activities are known to irreversibly increase global temperatures through the greenhouse effect. This study seeks to propose a mortality model with sensitivity to heat-change effects as one of the underlying parameters in the model. As such, the study sought to establish the relationship between greenhouse emissions and mortality indices in five OECD countries (USA, UK, Japan, Canada & Germany). Upon the establishment of the relationship using correlation analysis, an additional parameter that accounts for the sensitivity of heat-changes to mortality rates was incorporated in the Lee-Carter model. Based on the proposed model, new parameter estimates were calculated using iterative algorithms for optimization. Finally, the goodness of fit for the original Lee-Carter model and the proposed model were compared using deviance comparison. The proposed model provides a better fit to mortality rates especially in USA, UK and Germany where the mortality indices have a strong positive correlation with the level of greenhouse emissions. The results of this study are of particular importance to actuaries, demographers and climate-risk experts who seek to use better mortality-modeling techniques in the wake of heat effects caused by increased greenhouse emissions.

Keywords: climate risk, greenhouse emissions, Lee-Carter model, OECD

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Authors: Soheil Roumi, Fan Zhang, Rodney Stewart

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Indoor environmental quality (IEQ) indexes represented the suitability of a place to study, work, and live. Many indexes have been introduced based on the physical measurement or occupant surveys in commercial buildings. The earlier studies did not elaborate on the relationship between energy consumption and IEQ in office buildings. Such a relationship can provide a comprehensive overview of the building's performance. Also, it would find the potential of already constructed buildings under the upcoming climate change. A commercial building in southeast Queensland, Australia, was evaluated in this study. Physical measurements of IEQ and Energy areconducted, and their relationship will be determined using statistical analysis. The case study building is modelled in TRNSys software, and it will be validatedusingthe actual building's BMS data. Then, the modelled buildingwill be simulated by predicted weather data developed by the commonwealth scientific and industrial research organisation of Australia to investigate the occupant resilience and energy consumption. Finally, recommendations will be presented to consume less energy while providinga proper indoor environment for office occupants.

Keywords: IEQ, office buildings, thermal comfort, occupant resilience

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Authors: Muhammad Sohail Sajid, Hafiz Muhammad Rizwan, Ashfaq Ahmad Chatta, Zafar Iqbal, Muhammad Saqib

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Changes in the climate are posing threats to the livestock community throughout the globe. Agro-grazing animals and natural vegetation as their forages are the most important components of animal production. Climate and local conditions not only determine the nature and kind of plants, their distribution, composition and nutritive value in different cropping belts and grazing sites but also influence number and kinds of grazing animals. Phytomineral supplementation can act as an indirect tool to boost-up immunological profile of animals leading to the development of resilience against parasitic infections. The present study correlates the trace element (Cu, Co, Mn, Zn) profile of grazing sheep, feedstuffs, respective soils and their GI helminths in a selected district of Sialkot, Punjab, Pakistan. Ten species of GI helminths were found during the survey. A significant (P < 0.05) variation in the concentrations (conc.) of Zn, Cu, Mn and Co was recorded in a total of 16 collected forages. During autumn, mean conc. of Cu, Zn and Co in sera were inversely proportional to the GI helminth burden; while, during spring, only Zn was inversely proportional to the GI helminth burden in grazing sheep. During autumn the highest conc. of Zn, Cu, Mn and Co were recorded in Echinochloa colona, Amaranthus viridis, Cannabis sativa, and Brachiaria ramose and during spring in Cichorium intybus, Cynodon dactylon, Parthenium hysterophorus and Coronopus didymus respectively. The trace element-rich forages, preferably Zn, found effective against helminth infection are advisable supplemental remedies to improve the trace element profile in grazing sheep. This mitigation strategy may ultimately improve the resilience against GI helminth infections especially in the resource poor countries like Pakistan.

Keywords: coprological examination, Trace elements, Sheep, Gastro-intestinal parasites, Prevalence, Sialkot, Pakistan

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Authors: Nijat S. İmamverdiyev

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The transition to renewable energy sources has become a critical component of global efforts to mitigate climate change and promote sustainable development. However, the deployment of renewable energy technologies can also have significant impacts on ecosystems and the services they provide, such as carbon sequestration, soil fertility, water quality, and biodiversity. It also highlights the potential co-benefits of renewable energy deployment for ecosystem services, such as reducing greenhouse gas emissions and improving air and water quality. Renewable energy sources, such as wind, solar, hydro, and biomass, are increasingly being used to meet the world's energy needs due to their environmentally friendly nature and the desire to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, the expansion of renewable energy infrastructure can also impact ecosystem services, which are the benefits that humans derive from nature, such as clean water, air, and food. This geographical assessment aims to evaluate the relationship between renewable energy infrastructure and ecosystem services. Here, also explores potential solutions to mitigate the negative effects of renewable energy infrastructure on ecosystem services, such as the use of ecological compensation measures, biodiversity-friendly design of renewable energy infrastructure, and stakeholder involvement in decision-making processes.

Keywords: renewable energy, solar energy, climate change, energy production

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Authors: Nabil Elkhatri, Mohamed Louay Metougui, Ngonidzashe Chirinda

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Mining activities have left a legacy of degraded landscapes, prompting urgent efforts for ecological restoration. Reforestation holds promise as a potent tool to rehabilitate these old mining sites, with the potential to sequester carbon and contribute to climate change mitigation. This study focuses on evaluating the carbon stock and sequestration potential of reforestation species in the context of Morocco's mining areas, employing the DeNitrification-DeComposition (DNDC) model. The research is grounded in recognizing the need to connect theoretical models with practical implementation, ensuring that reforestation efforts are informed by accurate and context-specific data. Field data collection encompasses growth patterns, biomass accumulation, and carbon sequestration rates, establishing an empirical foundation for the study's analyses. By integrating the collected data with the DNDC model, the study aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of carbon dynamics within reforested ecosystems on old mining sites. The major findings reveal varying sequestration rates among different reforestation species, indicating the potential for species-specific optimization of reforestation strategies to enhance carbon capture. This research's significance lies in its potential to contribute to sustainable land management practices and climate change mitigation strategies. By quantifying the carbon stock and sequestration potential of reforestation species, the study serves as a valuable resource for policymakers, land managers, and practitioners involved in ecological restoration and carbon management. Ultimately, the study aligns with global objectives to rejuvenate degraded landscapes while addressing pressing climate challenges.

Keywords: carbon stock, carbon sequestration, DNDC model, ecological restoration, mining sites, Morocco, reforestation, sustainable land management.

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Authors: Beenish Mujahid, Sana Malik

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Bioclimatic design Strategies plays a dynamic role in construction of Sustainable Buildings. This approach leads to reduction in the mechanical cooling of building which provides comfort to the occupants in sustainable manner. Such bioclimatic measures provide a complete framework of building design through responding to climatic features of particular site. The featured Passive cooling techniques for hot climatic region provides comfortable indoor temperature with ecological and financial benefits. The study is based on highlighting this approach to produce energy efficient buildings for Semi-Arid climate like Lahore, Pakistan. Being part of developing country, energy savings in Lahore city would help the Power Sector and resolves the World Issues of Global Warming and Ozone Layer Depletion. This article reviews the bioclimatic design strategies and their critical analysis to drive guidelines for Sustainable buildings in Lahore. The study shows that the demand for mechanical cooling systems including air conditioning, fans, and air coolers can be reduced through regional climatic design.

Keywords: bioclimatic design, buildings, comfort, energy efficient, Lahore

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Authors: Adel A. Ghoneim

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Desalination using solar energy is an interesting option specifically at regions with abundant solar radiation since such areas normally have scarcity of clean water resources. Desalination is the procedure of eliminating dissolved minerals from seawater or brackish water to generate fresh water. In this work, a simulation program is developed to determine the performance of reverse osmosis (RO) water desalination plant powered by high concentrated photovoltaic (HCPV) panels in Kuwait climate conditions. The objective of such a photovoltaic thermal system is to accomplish a double output, i.e., co-generation of both electricity and fresh water that is applicable for rural regions with high solar irradiation. The suggested plan enables to design an RO plant that does not depend on costly batteries or additional land and significantly reduce the government costs to subsidize the water generation cost. Typical weather conditions for Kuwait is employed as input to the simulation program. The simulation program is utilized to optimize the system efficiency as well as the distillate water production. The areas and slopes of HCPV modules are varied to attain maximum yearly power production. Maximum yearly distillate production and HCPV energy generation are found to correspond to HCPV facing south with tilt of 27° (Kuwait latitude-3°). The power needed to produce 1 l of clean drinking water ranged from 2 to 8 kW h/m³, based on the salinity of the feed water and the system operating conditions. Moreover, adapting HCPV systems achieve an avoided greenhouse gases emission by about 1128 ton CO₂ annually. Present outcomes certainly illustrate environmental advantages of water desalination system powered by high concentrated photovoltaic systems in Kuwait climate conditions.

Keywords: desalination, high concentrated photovoltaic systems, reverse osmosis, solar radiation

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Authors: Abdelmoniem A. Attaelmanan, Ahmed A. H. Siddig

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This study was conducted in light of continual global climate changes that projected increasing aridity, changes in soil fertility, and pollution. Plant growth and development largely depend on the combination of availing water and nutrients in the soil. Changes in the climate and atmospheric chemistry can cause serious effects on these growth factors. Plant carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and hydrogen (H) play a fundamental role in the maintenance of ecosystem structure and function. Hashab (Acacia senegal), which produces gum Arabic, supports dryland ecosystems in tropical zones by its potentiality to restore degraded soils; hence it is ecologically and economically important for the dry areas of sub-Saharan Africa. The study aims at investigating the effects of water stress (simulated drought) and poor soil type on Acacia senegal C, N, and H contents. Seven days old seedlings were assigned to the treatments in Split- plot design for four weeks. The main plot is irrigation interval (well-watered and water-stressed), and the subplot is soil types (silt and sand soils). Seedling's C%, N%, and H% were measured using CHNS-O Analyzer and applying Standard Test Method. Irrigation intervals and soil types had no effects on seedlings and leaves C%, N%, and H%, irrigation interval had affected stem C and H%, both irrigation intervals and soil types had affected root N% and interaction effect of water and soil was found on leaves and root's N%. Synthesis application of well-watered irrigation with soil that is rich in N and other nutrients would result in the greatest seedling C, N, and H content which will enhance growth and biomass accumulation and can play a crucial role in ecosystem productivity and services in the dryland regions.

Keywords: Acacia senegal, Africa, climate change, drylands, nutrients biomass, Sub-Saharan, Sudan

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Authors: Bimal Raj Regmi, Cassandra Star

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Climate change adaptation is now the priority of many Least Developed Countries (LDCs). The country governments in LDCs are designing institutional and financing architecture to implement adaptation programmes. Nepal has introduced the concept of Local Adaptation Plan of Action (LAPA) to facilitate adaptation at the local level. However, there is lack of clarity and ambiguity on whether or not LAPA can be effective means to reach to the most vulnerable. This research paper aims to generate evidences to assess the applicability and significance of LAPA. The study used a case study approach and relied on data gathered from field studies carried out in Pyuthan and Nawalparasi district of Nepal. The findings show that LAPA has potentials to link the community based adaptation with national adaptation initiatives and thus act as middle range approach to adaptation planning. However, the current scale of LAPA and its approaches to planning and delivery are constraints by socio-economic and governance barriers. This research paper argue that the in order to address the constraints a more flexible and co-management approach to LAPA is needed.

Keywords: community based adaptation, local adaptation, co-management, climate change

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Authors: Dalma Varga, Nora Hubayne H.

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Nowadays, among the measures taken to offset the consequences of climate change, water resources management is one of the key tools, which can include excess water management. As a result of climate change’s effects and as a result of the frequent inappropriate landuse, more and more areas are affected by the excess water inundation. Hungary is located in the deepest part of the Pannonian Basin, which is exposed to water damage – especially lowland areas that are endangered by floods or excess waters. The periodical presence of excess water creates specific habitats in a given area, which have ecological, functional, and aesthetic values. Excess water inundation affects approximately 74% of Hungary’s lowland areas, of which about 46% is also under nature protection (such as national parks, protected landscape areas, nature conservation areas, Natura 2000 sites, etc.). These data prove that areas exposed to excess water inundation – which are predominantly characterized by agricultural land uses – have an important ecological role. Other research works have confirmed the presence of numerous rare and endangered plant species in drainage canals, on grasslands exposed to excess water, and on special agricultural fields with mud vegetation. The goal of this research is to define and analyze ecosystem services of areas exposed to excess water inundation. In addition to this, it is also important to determine the quantified indicators of these areas’ natural and landscape values besides the presence of protected species and the naturalness of habitats, so all in all, to analyze the various nature protections related to excess water. As a result, a practice-orientated assessment method has been developed that provides the ecological water demand, assimilates to ecological and habitat aspects, contributes to adaptive excess water management, and last but not least, increases or maintains the share of the green infrastructure network. In this way, it also contributes to reduce and mitigate the negative effects of climate change.

Keywords: ecosystem services, landscape architecture, excess water management, green infrastructure planning

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Authors: Sıdıka Kaya, Gülay Sain Güven, Seda Karsavuran, Onur Toka

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This study is part of an ongoing research project supported by the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) under Project Number 114K404, and participation to this conference was supported by Hacettepe University Scientific Research Coordination Unit under Project Number 10243. Evaluation of hospital readmissions is gaining importance in terms of quality and cost, and is becoming the target of national policies. In Turkey, the topic of hospital readmission is relatively new on agenda and very few studies have been conducted on this topic. The aim of this study was to determine 30-day readmission rates and risk factors for readmission. Whether readmission was planned, related to the prior admission and avoidable or not was also assessed. The study was designed as a ‘prospective cohort study.’ 472 patients hospitalized in internal medicine departments of a university hospital in Turkey between February 1, 2015 and April 30, 2015 were followed up. Analyses were conducted using IBM SPSS Statistics version 22.0 and SPSS Modeler 16.0. Average age of the patients was 56 and 56% of the patients were female. Among these patients 95 were readmitted. Overall readmission rate was calculated as 20% (95/472). However, only 31 readmissions were unplanned. Unplanned readmission rate was 6.5% (31/472). Out of 31 unplanned readmission, 24 was related to the prior admission. Only 6 related readmission was avoidable. To determine risk factors for readmission we constructed Chi-square automatic interaction detector (CHAID) decision tree algorithm. CHAID decision trees are nonparametric procedures that make no assumptions of the underlying data. This algorithm determines how independent variables best combine to predict a binary outcome based on ‘if-then’ logic by portioning each independent variable into mutually exclusive subsets based on homogeneity of the data. Independent variables we included in the analysis were: clinic of the department, occupied beds/total number of beds in the clinic at the time of discharge, age, gender, marital status, educational level, distance to residence (km), number of people living with the patient, any person to help his/her care at home after discharge (yes/no), regular source (physician) of care (yes/no), day of discharge, length of stay, ICU utilization (yes/no), total comorbidity score, means for each 3 dimensions of Readiness for Hospital Discharge Scale (patient’s personal status, patient’s knowledge, and patient’s coping ability) and number of daycare admissions within 30 days of discharge. In the analysis, we included all 95 readmitted patients (46.12%), but only 111 (53.88%) non-readmitted patients, although we had 377 non-readmitted patients, to balance data. The risk factors for readmission were found as total comorbidity score, gender, patient’s coping ability, and patient’s knowledge. The strongest identifying factor for readmission was comorbidity score. If patients’ comorbidity score was higher than 1, the risk for readmission increased. The results of this study needs to be validated by other data–sets with more patients. However, we believe that this study will guide further studies of readmission and CHAID is a useful tool for identifying risk factors for readmission.

Keywords: decision tree, hospital, internal medicine, readmission

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Authors: Samuel O. Akande

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The human-induced climate change is likely to have severe consequences on forest ecosystems in Nigeria. Recent discussions and emphasis on issues concerning the environment justify the need for this research which examined deforestation monitoring in Oban Forest, Nigeria using Remote Sensing techniques. The Landsat images from TM (1986), ETM+ (2001) and OLI (2015) sensors were obtained from Landsat online archive and processed using Erdas Imagine 2014 and ArcGIS 10.3 to obtain the land use/land cover and Normalized Differential Vegetative Index (NDVI) values. Ground control points of deforested areas were collected for validation. It was observed that the forest cover decreased in area by about 689.14 km² between 1986 and 2015. The NDVI was used to determine the vegetation health of the forest and its implications on agricultural sustainability. The result showed that the total percentage of the healthy forest cover has reduced to about 45.9% from 1986 to 2015. The results obtained from analysed questionnaires shown that there was a positive correlation between the causes and effects of deforestation in the study area. The coefficient of determination value was calculated as R² ≥ 0.7, to ascertain the level of anthropogenic activities, such as fuelwood harvesting, intensive farming, and logging, urbanization, and engineering construction activities, responsible for deforestation in the study area. Similarly, temperature and rainfall data were obtained from Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NIMET) for the period of 1986 to 2015 in the study area. It was observed that there was a significant increase in temperature while rainfall decreased over the study area. Responses from the administered questionnaires also showed that futile destruction of forest ecosystem in Oban forest could be reduced to its barest minimum if fuelwood harvesting is disallowed. Thus, the projected impacts of climate change on Nigeria’s forest ecosystems and environmental stability is better imagined than experienced.

Keywords: deforestation, ecosystems, normalized differential vegetative index, sustainability

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Authors: Teklay Tesfay, Gebreyesus Brhane Tesfahunegn, Abadi Berhane, Selemawit Girmay

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Adjusting the proper sowing date of a crop at a particular location with a changing climate is an essential management option to maximize crop yield. However, determining the optimum sowing date for rainfed maize production through field experimentation requires repeated trials for many years in different weather conditions and crop management. To avoid such long-term experimentation to determine the optimum sowing date, crop models such as AquaCrop are useful. Therefore, the overall objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of AquaCrop model in simulating maize productivity under varying sowing dates. A field experiment was conducted for two consecutive cropping seasons by deploying four maize seed sowing dates in a randomized complete block design with three replications. Input data required to run this model are stored as climate, crop, soil, and management files in the AquaCrop database and adjusted through the user interface. Observed data from separate field experiments was used to calibrate and validate the model. AquaCrop model was validated for its performance in simulating the green canopy and aboveground biomass of maize for the varying sowing dates based on the calibrated parameters. Results of the present study showed that there was a good agreement (an overall R2 =, Ef= d= RMSE =) between measured and simulated values of the canopy cover and biomass yields. Considering the overall values of the statistical test indicators, the performance of the model to predict maize growth and biomass yield was successful, and so this is a valuable tool help for decision-making. Hence, this calibrated and validated model is suggested to use for determining optimum maize crop sowing date for similar climate and soil conditions to the study area, instead of conducting long-term experimentation.

Keywords: AquaCrop model, calibration, validation, simulation

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Authors: Rodrigo De A. Ferrazza, Henry D. M. Garcia, Viviana H. V. Aristizabal, Camilla De S. Nogueira, Cecilia J. Verissimo, Jose Roberto Sartori, Roberto Sartori, Joao Carlos P. Ferreira

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Environmental factors adversely influence sustainability in livestock production system. Dairy herds are the most affected by heat stress among livestock industries. This clearly implies in development of new strategies for mitigating heat, which should be based on physiological and metabolic adaptations of the animal. In this study, we incorporated the effect of climate variables and heat exposure time on the thermoregulatory responses in order to clarify the adaptive mechanisms for bovine heat dissipation under intense thermal stress induced experimentally in climate chamber. Non-lactating Holstein cows were contemporaneously and randomly assigned to thermoneutral (TN; n=12) or heat stress (HS; n=12) treatments during 16 days. Vaginal temperature (VT) was measured every 15 min with a microprocessor-controlled data logger (HOBO®, Onset Computer Corporation, Bourne, MA, USA) attached to a modified vaginal controlled internal drug release insert (Sincrogest®, Ourofino, Brazil). Rectal temperature (RT), respiratory rate (RR) and heart rate (HR) were measured twice a day (0700 and 1500h) and dry matter intake (DMI) was estimated daily. The ambient temperature and air relative humidity were 25.9±0.2°C and 73.0±0.8%, respectively for TN, and 36.3± 0.3°C and 60.9±0.9%, respectively for HS. Respiratory rate of HS cows increased immediately after exposure to heat and was higher (76.02±1.70bpm; P<0.001) than TN (39.70±0.71bpm), followed by rising of RT (39.87°C±0.07 for HS versus 38.56±0.03°C for TN; P<0.001) and VT (39.82±0.10°C for HS versus 38.26±0.03°C for TN; P<0.001). A diurnal pattern was detected, with higher (P<0.01) afternoon temperatures than morning and this effect was aggravated for HS cows. There was decrease (P<0.05) of HR for HS cows (62.13±0.99bpm) compared to TN (66.23±0.79bpm), but the magnitude of the differences was not the same over time. From the third day, there was a decrease of DMI for HS in attempt to maintain homeothermy, while TN cows increased DMI (8.27kg±0.33kg d-1 for HS versus 14.03±0.29kg d-1 for TN; P<0.001). By regression analysis, RT and RR better reflected the response of cows to changes in the Temperature Humidity Index and the effect of climate variables from the previous day to influence the physiological parameters and DMI was more important than the current day, with ambient temperature the most important factor. Comparison between acute (0 to 3 days) and chronic (13 to 16 days) exposure to heat stress showed decreasing of the slope of the regression equations for RR and DMI, suggesting an adaptive adjustment, however with no change for RT. In conclusion, intense heat stress exerted strong influence on the thermoregulatory mechanisms, but the acclimation process was only partial.

Keywords: acclimation, bovine, climate chamber, hyperthermia, thermoregulation

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Authors: I. V. Kuzminov

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The research is dedicated to the issue of Bosporus evolution and its key role in the Black Sea forming. Up till nowadays, there is no distinct picture of the historical and geographical events of the last 10 thousand years on the territory from Altai up to the Alps. The present article is an attempt to clarify and, moreover, link the presented version to the historical and climatic events of this period. The paper is a development of the basic idea stated in "Hypothesis on the Black Sea origin". The succession of events in dynamics is offered in this article. In the article, it is shown that fluctuation of the level of the World Ocean is a mirror of the basic events connected with the climate on the Earth on the one hand and hydraulic processes on the other hand. In the present article, it is come out with the assumption that at the formation of passage, there were some cycles of change in a level of the World ocean. The phase of the beginning of climate warming is characterized by an increase in the level of inland water bodies on the way of meltwater runoff and an increase in the World ocean level. The end of the warming phase is characterized by the continuation of a rise in the level of the World ocean and the drying up of inland water bodies deprived of meltwater replenishment.

Keywords: Bosporus, Ryan-Pitman hypothesis, fluctuations of the World Ocean level, the Paratethys Sea, catastrophic breakthrough

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Authors: Tomáš Bublík, Miroslav Virius

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This paper presents general results on the Java source code snippet detection problem. We propose the tool which uses graph and sub graph isomorphism detection. A number of solutions for all of these tasks have been proposed in the literature. However, although that all these solutions are really fast, they compare just the constant static trees. Our solution offers to enter an input sample dynamically with the Scripthon language while preserving an acceptable speed. We used several optimizations to achieve very low number of comparisons during the matching algorithm.

Keywords: AST, Java, tree matching, scripthon source code recognition

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Authors: Mohamed Elhakeem, A. N. Thanos Papanicolaou, Christopher Wilson, Yi-Jia Chang

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In this study, a physically-based, modelling framework was developed to predict saturated hydraulic conductivity (KSAT) dynamics in the Clear Creek Watershed (CCW), Iowa. The modelling framework integrated selected pedotransfer functions and watershed models with geospatial tools. A number of pedotransfer functions and agricultural watershed models were examined to select the appropriate models that represent the study site conditions. Models selection was based on statistical measures of the models’ errors compared to the KSAT field measurements conducted in the CCW under different soil, climate and land use conditions. The study has shown that the predictions of the combined pedotransfer function of Rosetta and the Water Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) provided the best agreement to the measured KSAT values in the CCW compared to the other tested models. Therefore, Rosetta and WEPP were integrated with the Geographic Information System (GIS) tools for visualization of the data in forms of geospatial maps and prediction of KSAT variability in CCW due to the seasonal changes in climate and land use activities.

Keywords: saturated hydraulic conductivity, pedotransfer functions, watershed models, geospatial tools

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Authors: Zhenzhen Zhang

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As major human activity places, buildings consume a large amount of energy, and residential buildings are very important part of it. An extensive research work had been conducted to research how to achieve low energy goals, vernacular dwellings and contemporary technologies are two prime parameters among them. On one hand, some researchers concentrated on vernacular dwellings which were climate-response design and could offer a better living condition without mechanic application. On the other hand, a series concepts appeared based on modern technologies, surplus energy house, bioclimatic architecture, etc. especially thermodynamic architecture which integrates the micro-climate, human activity, thermal comfort, and energy efficiency into design. How to blend the two parameters is the key research topic now, which would act as the key to how to integrate the ancient design wise and contemporary new technologies. By several cases study, this paper will represent the evolution of thermodynamic architecture and then try to develop one methodology about how to produce a typical thermodynamic prototype for one area by blending the ancient building wise and contemporary concepts to achieve both low energy consumption and surplus energy.

Keywords: vernacular dwelling, thermodynamic architecture, bioclimatic architecture, thermodynamic prototype, surplus energy

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Authors: Ntandoyenkosi Moyo

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Majority of rural Eastern Cape villages of South Africa households do not have access to safe water supply. Due to changes in climatic conditions for example higher temperatures, these sources become not reliable in supplying adequate and safe water to the population. These rural populations due to the drying up of water resources have to find other alternative ways to get water. Climate change has an impact on the reliability of water resources and this has an impact on rural communities. This study seeks to establish what alternative ways do people use when affected by unfavorable conditions like less rainfall and increased temperatures. The study also seeks to investigate any local and provincial intervention in the provision of water to the village. Interventions can be in the form of programmes or initiatives that involve water supply strategies. The community should participate fully in making sure that their place is serviced. The study will identify households with improved sources (JOJO tanks) and those with unimproved sources (rivers) and investigate what alternatives they resort to when their sources dry up. The study also investigates community views on whether they have any challenges of water supply (reliability and adequacy) as required by section 27(1) (b) of the constitution which states that everyone should have access to safe and clean water.

Keywords: rural water resources, temperature, improved sources, unimproved sources

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Authors: Muhammad Afzal, Shahbaz Mushtaq, Duc-Anh-An-Vo, Kathryn Reardon Smith, Thanh Ma

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Climate change has become one of the most challenging environmental issues in the 21st century. Climate change-induced natural disasters, especially floods, are the major factors of livelihood vulnerability, impacting millions of individuals worldwide. Evaluating and mitigating the effects of floods requires an in-depth understanding of the relationship between vulnerability and livelihood capital assets. Using an integrated approach, sustainable livelihood framework, and system thinking approach, the study developed a conceptual model of a generalized livelihood system in District Rajanpur, Pakistan. The model visualizes the livelihood vulnerability system as a whole and identifies the key feedback loops likely to influence the livelihood vulnerability. The study suggests that such conceptual models provide effective communication and understanding tools to stakeholders and decision-makers to anticipate the problem and design appropriate policies. It can also serve as an evaluation technique for rural livelihood policy and identify key systematic interventions. The key finding of the study reveals that household income, health, and education are the major factors behind the livelihood vulnerability of the rural poor of District Rajanpur. The Pakistani government tried to reduce the livelihood vulnerability of the region through different income, health, and education programs, but still, many changes are required to make these programs more effective especially during the flood times. The government provided only cash to vulnerable and marginalized families through income support programs, but this study suggests that along with the cash, the government must provide seed storage facilities and access to crop insurance to the farmers. Similarly, the government should establish basic health units in villages and frequent visits of medical mobile vans should be arranged with advanced medical lab facilities during and after the flood.

Keywords: livelihood vulnerability, rural communities, flood, sustainable livelihood framework, system dynamics, Pakistan

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Authors: M. Y. Abubakar, Ipinjolu J. K., Yuzine B. Esa, Magawata I., Hassan W. A., Turaki A. A.

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Catfish (Heterobranchus spp.) is a major freshwater fish that are widely distributed in Nigeria waters and are gaining rapid aquaculture expansion. However, indiscriminate artificial crossbreeding of the species with others poses a threat to their biodiversity. There is a paucity of information about the genetic variability, hence this insight on the genetic variability is badly needed, not only for the species conservation but for aquaculture expansion. In this study, we tested the level of Genetic diversity, population differentiation and phylogenetic relationship analysis on 35 individuals of two populations of Heterobranchus bidorsalis and 29 individuals of three populations of Heterobranchus longifilis using the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (mtDNA COI) gene sequence. Nucleotide sequences of 650 bp fragment of the COI gene of the two species were compared. In the whole 4 and 5 haplotypes were distinguished in the populations of H. bidorsalis & H. longifilis with accession numbers (MG334168 - MG334171 & MG334172 to MG334176) respectively. Haplotypes diversity indices revealed a range of 0.59 ± 0.08 to 0.57 ± 0.09 in H. bidorsalis and 0.000 to 0.001051 ± 0.000945 in H. longifilis population, respectively. Analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) revealed no significant variation among H. bidorsalis population of the Niger & Benue Rivers, detected significant genetic variation was between the Rivers of Niger, Kaduna and Benue population of H. longifilis. Two main clades were recovered, showing a clear separation between H. bidorsalis and H. longifilis in the phylogenetic tree. The mtDNA COI genes studied revealed high gene flow between populations with no distinct genetic differentiation between the populations as measured by the fixation index (FST) statistic. However, a proportion of population-specific haplotypes was observed in the two species studied, suggesting a substantial degree of genetic distinctiveness for each of the population investigated. These findings present the description of the species character and accessions of the fish’s genetic resources, through gene sequence submitted in Genetic database. The data will help to protect their valuable wild resource and contribute to their recovery and selective breeding in Nigeria.

Keywords: AMOVA, genetic diversity, Heterobranchus spp., mtDNA COI, phylogenetic tree

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Authors: Keshav Raj Acharya, Prabina Sharma

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Sugandhakokila (Cinnamomum glaucescens Nees. Dury) is a large evergreen native tree species; mostly confined naturally in mid-hills of Rapti Zone of Nepal. The species is identified as prioritized for agro-technology development as well as for research and development by a department of plant resources. This species is band for export outside the country without processing by the government of Nepal to encourage the value addition within the country. The present study was carried out in Chillikot village of Dang district to find out the economic contribution of C. glaucescens in the local economy and to document the major conservation threats for this species. Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) tools such as Household survey, key informants interviews and focus group discussions were carried out to collect the data. The present study reveals that about 1.7 million Nepalese rupees (NPR) have been contributed annually in the local economy of 29 households from the collection of C. glaucescens berries in the study area. The average annual income of each family was around NPR 67,165.38 (US$ 569.19) from the sale of the berries which contributes about 53% of the total household income. Six different value chain actors are involved in C. glaucescens business. Maximum profit margin was taken by collector followed by producer, exporter and processor. The profit margin was found minimum to regional and village traders. The total profit margin for producers was NPR 138.86/kg, and regional traders have gained NPR 17/kg. However, there is a possibility to increase the profit of producers by NPR 8.00 more for each kg of berries through the initiation of community forest user group and village cooperatives in the area. Open access resource, infestation by an insect to over matured trees and browsing by goats were identified as major conservation threats for this species. Handing over the national forest as a community forest, linking the producers with the processor through organized market channel and replacing the old tree through new plantation has been recommended for future.

Keywords: community forest, conservation threats, C. glaucescens, value chain analysis

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Authors: Loubna Khalile, Hicham Lahlaoi, Hassan Rhinane, A. Kaoukaya, S. Fal

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Green spaces is an essential element, they contribute to improving the quality of lives of the towns around them. They are a place of relaxation, walk and rest a playground for sport and youths. According to United Nations Organization Forests cover 31% of the land. In Morocco in 2013 that cover 12.65 % of the total land area, still, a small proportion compared to the natural needs of forests as a green lung of our planet. The Benslimane Forest is a large green area It belongs to Chaouia-Ouardigha Region and Greater Casablanca Region, it is located geographically between Casablanca is considered the economic and business Capital of Morocco and Rabat the national political capital, with an area of 12261.80 Hectares. The essential problem usually encountered in suburban forests, is visitation and tourism pressure it is anthropogenic actions, as well as other ecological and environmental factors. In recent decades, Morocco has experienced a drought year that has influenced the forest with increasing human pressure and every day it suffers heavy losses, as well as over-exploitation. The Moroccan forest ecosystems are weak with intense ecological variation, domanial and imposed usage rights granted to the population; forests are experiencing a significant deterioration due to forgetfulness and immoderate use of forest resources which can influence the destruction of animal habitats, vegetation, water cycle and climate. The purpose of this study is to make a model of the degree of degradation of the forest and know the causes for prevention by using remote sensing and geographic information systems by introducing climate and ancillary data. Analytic hierarchy process was used to find out the degree of influence and the weight of each parameter, in this case, it is found that anthropogenic activities have a fairly significant impact has thus influenced the climate.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, degradation, forest, geographic information system

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Authors: Syed Romat Ali Shah, Bilal Shoaib, Saleem Akhtar, Munib Ahmad, Shahan Sadiqui

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Classification is a data mining technique, which is recognizedon Machine Learning (ML) algorithm. It is used to classifythe individual articlein a knownofinformation into a set of predefinemodules or group. Web mining is also a portion of that sympathetic of data mining methods. The main purpose of this paper to analysis and compare the performance of Naïve Bayse Algorithm, Decision Tree, K-Nearest Neighbor (KNN), Artificial Neural Network (ANN)and Support Vector Machine (SVM). This paper consists of different ML algorithm and their advantages and disadvantages and also define research issues.

Keywords: Data Mining, Web Mining, classification, ML Algorithms

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Authors: Bismina Akbar, Smitha M. V.

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Flooding is a global phenomenon that causes widespread devastation, economic damage, and loss of human lives. In the past twenty years, the number of reported flood events has increased significantly. Millions of people around the globe are at risk of flooding from coastal, dam breaks, groundwater, and urban surface water and wastewater sources. Climate change is one of the important causes for them since it affects, directly and indirectly, the river network. Although the contribution of climate change is undeniable, human contributions are there to increase the frequency of floods. There are different types of floods, such as Flash floods, Coastal floods, Urban floods, River (or fluvial) floods, and Ponding (or pluvial flooding). This study focuses on formulating mitigation strategies for urban flood risk reduction through analysis of different best practice case studies, including China, Japan, Indonesia, and Brazil. The mitigation measures suggest that apart from the structural and non-structural measures, environmental considerations like blue-green solutions are beneficial for flood risk reduction. And also, Risk-Informed Master plans are essential nowadays to take risk-based decision processes that enable more sustainability and resilience.

Keywords: hazard, mitigation, risk reduction, urban flood

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