Search results for: seasonal availability
2053 Biomorphological Characteristics, Habitats, Role in Plant Communities and Raw Reserves of Ayuga Turkestanica (Regel) Briq. (Lamiaceae) In Uzbekistan
Authors: Akmal E. Egamberdiev, Alim M. Nigmatullaev, Trobjon Kh. Makhkamov
Abstract:
The results of scientific research on the biomorphological features of Ajuga turkestanica (Regel) Brig., its role in plant communities, modern distribution areas, and raw material reserves are presented. Plant ontogeny is divided into 3 periods and 9 growth stages. Information on its seasonal and diurnal flowering and seed productivity is provided. As a result of the research, the participation of the studied species in plant communities, its place, the structure and floristic composition of communities were determined, and as a result, for the first time, the description of 11 new associations in 7 formations of Ajuga turkestanica, and a schematic map of the geolocation of formations and associations of plants in Uzbekistan is given. A. turkestanica (within the range) are divided into 3 categories and 21 massifs. Its current biological reserve is 93.5±35.3 tons, its usable reserve is 46.2±13.8 tons, and the reserve that can be prepared in 1 year is 28.4±5.42 tons.Keywords: ontogeny, seed productivity, seasonal flowering, formation, association, dominant, subdominant, areal, biological reserve, operational reserve, annual reserve, GIS map
Procedia PDF Downloads 982052 Variation in Water Utilization of Typical Desert Shrubs in a Desert-Oasis Ecotone
Authors: Hai Zhou, Wenzhi Zhao
Abstract:
Water is one of the most important factors limiting plant growth and development in desert ecosystems. In order to understand how desert shrubs cope with variation in water sources over time, it is important to understand plant–water relations in desert-oasis ecotone. We selected the typical desert shrubs: Nitraria sibirica, Calligonum mongolicum and Haloxylon ammodendron of 5-, 10-, 20- and 40-year old as the research species, to study the seasonal variation of plant water sources and response to precipitation in the desert-oasis ecotone of Linze, Northwestern China. We examined stable isotopic ratios of oxygen (δ18O) in stem water of desert shrubs as well as in precipitation, groundwater, and soil water in different soil layers and seasons to determine water sources for the shrubs. We found that the N. sibirica and H. ammodendron of 5-, 10-year old showed significant seasonal variation characteristics of δ18O value of stem water and water sources. However, the C. mongolicum and 20- and 40-year H. ammodendron main water sources were from deep soil water and groundwater, and less response to precipitation pulse. After 22.4 mm precipitation, the contribution of shallow soil water (0-50cm) to the use of N. sibirica increased from 6.7% to 36.5%; the C. mongolicum rarely use precipitation that were about 58.29% and 23.51%, absorbed from the deep soil water and groundwater; the contribution of precipitation to use of H. ammodendron had significantly differences among the four ages. The H. ammodendron of 5- and 10-year old about 86.3% and 42.5% water sources absorbed from the shallow soil water after precipitation. However, the contribution to 20- and 40-year old plant was less than 15%. So, the precipitation was one of the main water sources for desert shrubs, but the species showed different water utilization. We conclude that the main water source of the N. sibirica and H. ammodendron of 5-, 10-year was soil water recharged by precipitation, but the deeply rooted H. ammodendron of 20‐ and 40‐year‐old and the C. mongolicum have the ability to exploit a deep and reliable water source.Keywords: water use pattern, water resource, stable isotope, seasonal change, precipitation pulse
Procedia PDF Downloads 4292051 Formalizing a Procedure for Generating Uncertain Resource Availability Assumptions Based on Real Time Logistic Data Capturing with Auto-ID Systems for Reactive Scheduling
Authors: Lars Laußat, Manfred Helmus, Kamil Szczesny, Markus König
Abstract:
As one result of the project “Reactive Construction Project Scheduling using Real Time Construction Logistic Data and Simulation”, a procedure for using data about uncertain resource availability assumptions in reactive scheduling processes has been developed. Prediction data about resource availability is generated in a formalized way using real-time monitoring data e.g. from auto-ID systems on the construction site and in the supply chains. The paper focuses on the formalization of the procedure for monitoring construction logistic processes, for the detection of disturbance and for generating of new and uncertain scheduling assumptions for the reactive resource constrained simulation procedure that is and will be further described in other papers.Keywords: auto-ID, construction logistic, fuzzy, monitoring, RFID, scheduling
Procedia PDF Downloads 5132050 An Analytical Metric and Process for Critical Infrastructure Architecture System Availability Determination in Distributed Computing Environments under Infrastructure Attack
Authors: Vincent Andrew Cappellano
Abstract:
In the early phases of critical infrastructure system design, translating distributed computing requirements to an architecture has risk given the multitude of approaches (e.g., cloud, edge, fog). In many systems, a single requirement for system uptime / availability is used to encompass the system’s intended operations. However, when architected systems may perform to those availability requirements only during normal operations and not during component failure, or during outages caused by adversary attacks on critical infrastructure (e.g., physical, cyber). System designers lack a structured method to evaluate availability requirements against candidate system architectures through deep degradation scenarios (i.e., normal ops all the way down to significant damage of communications or physical nodes). This increases risk of poor selection of a candidate architecture due to the absence of insight into true performance for systems that must operate as a piece of critical infrastructure. This research effort proposes a process to analyze critical infrastructure system availability requirements and a candidate set of systems architectures, producing a metric assessing these architectures over a spectrum of degradations to aid in selecting appropriate resilient architectures. To accomplish this effort, a set of simulation and evaluation efforts are undertaken that will process, in an automated way, a set of sample requirements into a set of potential architectures where system functions and capabilities are distributed across nodes. Nodes and links will have specific characteristics and based on sampled requirements, contribute to the overall system functionality, such that as they are impacted/degraded, the impacted functional availability of a system can be determined. A machine learning reinforcement-based agent will structurally impact the nodes, links, and characteristics (e.g., bandwidth, latency) of a given architecture to provide an assessment of system functional uptime/availability under these scenarios. By varying the intensity of the attack and related aspects, we can create a structured method of evaluating the performance of candidate architectures against each other to create a metric rating its resilience to these attack types/strategies. Through multiple simulation iterations, sufficient data will exist to compare this availability metric, and an architectural recommendation against the baseline requirements, in comparison to existing multi-factor computing architectural selection processes. It is intended that this additional data will create an improvement in the matching of resilient critical infrastructure system requirements to the correct architectures and implementations that will support improved operation during times of system degradation due to failures and infrastructure attacks.Keywords: architecture, resiliency, availability, cyber-attack
Procedia PDF Downloads 1082049 Distribution, Seasonal Phenology and Infestation Dispersal of the Chickpea Leafminer Liriomyza cicerina (Diptera: Agromizidae) on Two Winter and Spring Chickpea Varieties
Authors: Abir Soltani, Moez Amri, Jouda Mediouni Ben Jemâa
Abstract:
In North Africa, the chickpea leafminer Liriomyza cicerina (Rondani) (Diptera: Agromizidae) is one of the major damaging pests affecting both spring and winter-planted chickpea. Damage is caused by the larvae which feed in the leaf mesophyll tissue, resulting in desiccation and premature leaf fall that can cause severe yield losses. In the present work, the distribution and the seasonal phenology of L. cicerina were studied on two chickpea varieties; a winter variety Beja 1 which is the most cultivated variety in Tunisia and a spring-sown variety Amdoun 1. The experiment was conducted during the cropping season 2015-2016. In the experimental research station Oued Beja, in the Beja region (36°44’N; 9°13’E). To determine the distribution and seasonal phenology of L. cicerina in both studied varieties Beja 1 and Amdoun 1, respectively 100 leave samples (50 from the top and 50 from the base) were collected from 10 chickpea plants randomly chosen from each field. The sampling was done during three development stages (i) 20-25 days before flowering (BFL), (ii) at flowering (FL) and (ii) at pod setting stage (PS). For each plant, leaves were checked from the base till the upper ones for the insect infestation progress into the plant in correlation with chickpea growth Stages. Fly adult populations were monitored using 8 yellow sticky traps together with weekly leaves sampling in each field. The traps were placed 70 cm above ground. Trap catches were collected once a week over the cropping season period. Results showed that L. cicerina distribution varied among both studied chickpea varieties and crop development stage all with seasonal phenology. For the winter chickpea variety Beja 1, infestation levels of 2%, 10.3% and 20.3% were recorded on the bases plant part for BFL, FL and PS stages respectively against 0%, 8.1% and 45.8% recorded for the upper plant part leaves for the same stages respectively. For the spring-sown variety Amdoun 1 the infestation level reached 71.5% during flowering stage. Population dynamic study revealed that for Beja 1 variety, L. cicerina accomplished three annual generations over the cropping season period with the third one being the most important with a capture level of 85 adult/trap by mid-May against a capture level of 139 adult/trap at the end May recorded for cv. Amdoun 1. Also, results showed that L. cicerina field infestation dispersal depends on the field part and on the crop growth stage. The border areas plants were more infested than the plants placed inside the plots. For cv. Beja 1, border areas infestations were 11%, 28% and 91.2% for BFL, FL and PS stages respectively, against 2%, 10.73% and 69.2% recorded on the on the inside plot plants during the for the same growth stages respectively. For the cv. Amdoun1 infestation level of 90% was observed on the border plants at FL and PS stages against an infestation level less than 65% recorded inside the plot.Keywords: leaf miner, liriomyza cicerina, chickpea, distribution, seasonal phenology, Tunisia
Procedia PDF Downloads 2822048 Doing More with Less: Passion for Entrepreneurship in the Research-Constraint Contexts of Developing and Emerging Economies
Authors: Marcel Hechler
Abstract:
Since passion is considered one of the most important motivating factors for entrepreneurship, we examined the influence of the availability of resources and information on the emergence of a harmonious passion for entrepreneurship (HPE). Drawing on self-determination theory and a cross-cultural sample of 1,085 entrepreneurs from seven developing countries, we argue that the availability of resources and information increases an entrepreneur's autonomy and, thus, promotes the emergence of HPE.Keywords: harmonious passion, access to resources and information, developing and emerging countries, self-determination theory
Procedia PDF Downloads 1642047 Seasonal Stirred Variations in Chemical Composition and Antifungal Activity of Medicinal Plants Turraea holstii and Clausena anisata
Authors: Francis Machumi, Ester Innocent, Pius Yanda, Philip C. Stevenson
Abstract:
Curative dependence of traditionally used medicinal plants on season of harvest is an alleged claim by traditional health practitioners. This study intended to verify these claims by investigating antifungal activity and chemical composition of traditionally used medicinal plants Turraea holstii and Clausena anisata harvested in rainy season and dry season. The antifungal activities were determined by broth microdilution method whereas chemical profiling of the extracts from the plant materials was done by gas chromatography (GC). Results indicated that extracts of plant materials harvested in dry season showed enhanced antifungal activity as compared to extracts of plant materials harvested in rainy season. GC chromatograms showed overalls increase in number and amount of chemical species for extracts of plant materials harvested in dry season as compared to extracts of plant materials harvested in rainy season.Keywords: antifungal activity, chemical composition, medicinal plants, seasonal dependence
Procedia PDF Downloads 4242046 Designing Energy Efficient Buildings for Seasonal Climates Using Machine Learning Techniques
Authors: Kishor T. Zingre, Seshadhri Srinivasan
Abstract:
Energy consumption by the building sector is increasing at an alarming rate throughout the world and leading to more building-related CO₂ emissions into the environment. In buildings, the main contributors to energy consumption are heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems, lighting, and electrical appliances. It is hypothesised that the energy efficiency in buildings can be achieved by implementing sustainable technologies such as i) enhancing the thermal resistance of fabric materials for reducing heat gain (in hotter climates) and heat loss (in colder climates), ii) enhancing daylight and lighting system, iii) HVAC system and iv) occupant localization. Energy performance of various sustainable technologies is highly dependent on climatic conditions. This paper investigated the use of machine learning techniques for accurate prediction of air-conditioning energy in seasonal climates. The data required to train the machine learning techniques is obtained using the computational simulations performed on a 3-story commercial building using EnergyPlus program plugged-in with OpenStudio and Google SketchUp. The EnergyPlus model was calibrated against experimental measurements of surface temperatures and heat flux prior to employing for the simulations. It has been observed from the simulations that the performance of sustainable fabric materials (for walls, roof, and windows) such as phase change materials, insulation, cool roof, etc. vary with the climate conditions. Various renewable technologies were also used for the building flat roofs in various climates to investigate the potential for electricity generation. It has been observed that the proposed technique overcomes the shortcomings of existing approaches, such as local linearization or over-simplifying assumptions. In addition, the proposed method can be used for real-time estimation of building air-conditioning energy.Keywords: building energy efficiency, energyplus, machine learning techniques, seasonal climates
Procedia PDF Downloads 1142045 Length Weight Relationship and Relative Condition Factor of Atropus atropos (Bloch and Schneider, 1801) from Mangalore Coast, India
Authors: D. P. Rajesh, H. N. Anjanayappa, P. Nayana, S. Benakappa
Abstract:
The present study deals with length-weight relationship of Atropus atropos for which no information is available on this aspect from Mangalore coast. Therefore the present investigation was undertaken. Fish samples were collected from fish landing center (Mangalore) and fish market. The regression co-efficient of male was found to be lower than female. From this observation it may be opined that female gained more weight with increase in length compared to male. Data on seasonal variation in condition factor (Kn) showed that Kn values were more or less similar in both the sexes, indicating almost identical metabolic activity. Gonadal development and high feeding intensity are the factors which influenced the condition factor. The seasonal fluctuations in the relative condition factor of both the sexes could be attributed to the sexual cycle, food intake and environmental factors. From the present study, it can be inferred that the variation in the condition of Atropus atropos was due to feeding activity and gonadal maturity.Keywords: Atropus atropos, length-weight relationship, Mangalore coast, relative condition factor, Kn
Procedia PDF Downloads 3442044 Fuzzy Availability Analysis of a Battery Production System
Authors: Merve Uzuner Sahin, Kumru D. Atalay, Berna Dengiz
Abstract:
In today’s competitive market, there are many alternative products that can be used in similar manner and purpose. Therefore, the utility of the product is an important issue for the preferability of the brand. This utility could be measured in terms of its functionality, durability, reliability. These all are affected by the system capabilities. Reliability is an important system design criteria for the manufacturers to be able to have high availability. Availability is the probability that a system (or a component) is operating properly to its function at a specific point in time or a specific period of times. System availability provides valuable input to estimate the production rate for the company to realize the production plan. When considering only the corrective maintenance downtime of the system, mean time between failure (MTBF) and mean time to repair (MTTR) are used to obtain system availability. Also, the MTBF and MTTR values are important measures to improve system performance by adopting suitable maintenance strategies for reliability engineers and practitioners working in a system. Failure and repair time probability distributions of each component in the system should be known for the conventional availability analysis. However, generally, companies do not have statistics or quality control departments to store such a large amount of data. Real events or situations are defined deterministically instead of using stochastic data for the complete description of real systems. A fuzzy set is an alternative theory which is used to analyze the uncertainty and vagueness in real systems. The aim of this study is to present a novel approach to compute system availability using representation of MTBF and MTTR in fuzzy numbers. Based on the experience in the system, it is decided to choose 3 different spread of MTBF and MTTR such as 15%, 20% and 25% to obtain lower and upper limits of the fuzzy numbers. To the best of our knowledge, the proposed method is the first application that is used fuzzy MTBF and fuzzy MTTR for fuzzy system availability estimation. This method is easy to apply in any repairable production system by practitioners working in industry. It is provided that the reliability engineers/managers/practitioners could analyze the system performance in a more consistent and logical manner based on fuzzy availability. This paper presents a real case study of a repairable multi-stage production line in lead-acid battery production factory in Turkey. The following is focusing on the considered wet-charging battery process which has a higher production level than the other types of battery. In this system, system components could exist only in two states, working or failed, and it is assumed that when a component in the system fails, it becomes as good as new after repair. Instead of classical methods, using fuzzy set theory and obtaining intervals for these measures would be very useful for system managers, practitioners to analyze system qualifications to find better results for their working conditions. Thus, much more detailed information about system characteristics is obtained.Keywords: availability analysis, battery production system, fuzzy sets, triangular fuzzy numbers (TFNs)
Procedia PDF Downloads 2242043 Preliminary Study of Fermented Pickle of Tabah Bamboo Shoot: Gigantochloa nigrociliata (Buese) Kurz
Authors: Luh Putu T. Darmayanti, A. A. Duwipayana, I. Nengah K. Putra, Nyoman S. Antara
Abstract:
Tabah Bamboo (Gigantochloa nigrociliata (Buese) Kurz) is the indigenous bamboo species which grows in District of Pupuan, Tabanan at Province of Bali. Compared to the others, this shoot has low concentration of hydrocyanide acid (HCN). However, as found for almost of bamboo shoot, its seasonal availability, perishable in nature, and short-lived. This study aimed to gather information about total of lactic acid bacteria (LAB), pH, total acidity, HCN content, detection of LAB’s type involved during fermentation, and organic acids’ profiles of fermented pickles of Tabah bamboo shoot. The pickle was made by natural fermentation with 6 % salt concentration and fermentation conducted for 13 days. The result showed during the fermentation time, in the fourth day we found LAB’s number was highest as much as 72 x 107 CFU/ml and the lowest pH was 3.09. We also found decreasing in HCN from 37.8 ppm at the beginning to 20.52 ppm at the end of fermentation process. The total number of indigenous LAB isolated from the pickle are 48 strains we found 18 out of these had rod shape. For the preliminary study, all of the LAB with rod shape were detected by PCR as member of Lactobacillus spp., in which 17 strains detected as L. plantarum. The organic acids detected during the fermentation were lactic acid with the highest concentration was 0.0546 g/100 g and small amount of acetic acid.Keywords: fermentation, LAB, pickle, Tabah Bamboo shoot
Procedia PDF Downloads 3442042 Sea Surface Trend over the Arabian Sea and Its Influence on the South West Monsoon Rainfall Variability over Sri Lanka
Authors: Sherly Shelton, Zhaohui Lin
Abstract:
In recent decades, the inter-annual variability of summer precipitation over the India and Sri Lanka has intensified significantly with an increased frequency of both abnormally dry and wet summers. Therefore prediction of the inter-annual variability of summer precipitation is crucial and urgent for water management and local agriculture scheduling. However, none of the hypotheses put forward so far could understand the relationship to monsoon variability and related factors that affect to the South West Monsoon (SWM) variability in Sri Lanka. This study focused to identify the spatial and temporal variability of SWM rainfall events from June to September (JJAS) over Sri Lanka and associated trend. The monthly rainfall records covering 1980-2013 over the Sri Lanka are used for 19 stations to investigate long-term trends in SWM rainfall over Sri Lanka. The linear trends of atmospheric variables are calculated to understand the drivers behind the changers described based on the observed precipitation, sea surface temperature and atmospheric reanalysis products data for 34 years (1980–2013). Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis was applied to understand the spatial and temporal behaviour of seasonal SWM rainfall variability and also investigate whether the trend pattern is the dominant mode that explains SWM rainfall variability. The spatial and stations based precipitation over the country showed statistically insignificant decreasing trends except few stations. The first two EOFs of seasonal (JJAS) mean of rainfall explained 52% and 23 % of the total variance and first PC showed positive loadings of the SWM rainfall for the whole landmass while strongest positive lording can be seen in western/ southwestern part of the Sri Lanka. There is a negative correlation (r ≤ -0.3) between SMRI and SST in the Arabian Sea and Central Indian Ocean which indicate that lower temperature in the Arabian Sea and Central Indian Ocean are associated with greater rainfall over the country. This study also shows that consistently warming throughout the Indian Ocean. The result shows that the perceptible water over the county is decreasing with the time which the influence to the reduction of precipitation over the area by weakening drawn draft. In addition, evaporation is getting weaker over the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and Sri Lankan landmass which leads to reduction of moisture availability required for the SWM rainfall over Sri Lanka. At the same time, weakening of the SST gradients between Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal can deteriorate the monsoon circulation, untimely which diminish SWM over Sri Lanka. The decreasing trends of moisture, moisture transport, zonal wind, moisture divergence with weakening evaporation over Arabian Sea, during the past decade having an aggravating influence on decreasing trends of monsoon rainfall over the Sri Lanka.Keywords: Arabian Sea, moisture flux convergence, South West Monsoon, Sri Lanka, sea surface temperature
Procedia PDF Downloads 1322041 Towards a Simulation Model to Ensure the Availability of Machines in Maintenance Activities
Authors: Maryam Gallab, Hafida Bouloiz, Youness Chater, Mohamed Tkiouat
Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to present a model based on multi-agent systems in order to manage the maintenance activities and to ensure the reliability and availability of machines just with the required resources (operators, tools). The interest of the simulation is to solve the complexity of the system and to find results without cost or wasting time. An implementation of the model is carried out on the AnyLogic platform to display the defined performance indicators.Keywords: maintenance, complexity, simulation, multi-agent systems, AnyLogic platform
Procedia PDF Downloads 3052040 One-Step Time Series Predictions with Recurrent Neural Networks
Authors: Vaidehi Iyer, Konstantin Borozdin
Abstract:
Time series prediction problems have many important practical applications, but are notoriously difficult for statistical modeling. Recently, machine learning methods have been attracted significant interest as a practical tool applied to a variety of problems, even though developments in this field tend to be semi-empirical. This paper explores application of Long Short Term Memory based Recurrent Neural Networks to the one-step prediction of time series for both trend and stochastic components. Two types of data are analyzed - daily stock prices, that are often considered to be a typical example of a random walk, - and weather patterns dominated by seasonal variations. Results from both analyses are compared, and reinforced learning framework is used to select more efficient between Recurrent Neural Networks and more traditional auto regression methods. It is shown that both methods are able to follow long-term trends and seasonal variations closely, but have difficulties with reproducing day-to-day variability. Future research directions and potential real world applications are briefly discussed.Keywords: long short term memory, prediction methods, recurrent neural networks, reinforcement learning
Procedia PDF Downloads 2292039 Residents' Satisfaction with Infrastructural Facilities in the Peri-Urban Area of Ibadan, Southwest of Nigeria
Authors: Simon Ayorinde Okanlawon
Abstract:
This study examines residents’ assessment of with infrastructural facilities in the urban fringe of Ibadan, Nigeria. Random sampling technique was used in selecting four Local Government Areas out of the six suburban LGAs of the city. Google earth and ground trotting were used in capturing and selecting seven hundred and forty-two new houses. The questionnaires administered on house owners were harvested on the spot. The information collected includes socio-economic and demographic characteristics of residents as well as characteristics of infrastructural facilities. The study utilised both descriptive and inferential statistical analyses; Facility Availability Index (FAI) Facility Functionality Index (FFI) and Residents’ Satisfactions Index (RSI) were used to compare respectively residents’ perceived levels of availability of, the functionality of, and satisfaction with facilities across Local Government Areas. The study shows that levels of both availability of, and satisfaction with infrastructural facilities are low with respective overall FAI (0.8) and RSI (0.05), while the functionality of the facilities is generally very poor IFFI = - 0.58). Strategies were proposed to enhance the good, livable, and healthy environment.Keywords: infrastructural facilities, infrastructural perception index, residents’ satisfaction, urban fringe of Ibadan
Procedia PDF Downloads 2232038 Effect of Human Use, Season and Habitat on Ungulate Densities in Kanha Tiger Reserve
Authors: Neha Awasthi, Ujjwal Kumar
Abstract:
Density of large carnivores is primarily dictated by the density of their prey. Therefore, optimal management of ungulates populations permits harbouring of viable large carnivore populations within protected areas. Ungulate density is likely to respond to regimes of protection and vegetation types. This has generated the need among conservation practitioners to obtain strata specific seasonal species densities for habitat management. Kanha Tiger Reserve (KTR) of 2074 km2 area comprises of two distinct management strata: The core (940 km2), devoid of human settlements and buffer (1134 km2) which is a multiple use area. In general, four habitat strata, grassland, sal forest, bamboo-mixed forest and miscellaneous forest are present in the reserve. Stratified sampling approach was used to access a) impact of human use and b) effect of habitat and season on ungulate densities. Since 2013 to 2016, ungulates were surveyed in winter and summer of each year with an effort of 1200 km walk in 200 spatial transects distributed throughout Kanha Tiger Reserve. We used a single detection function for each species within each habitat stratum for each season for estimating species specific seasonal density, using program DISTANCE. Our key results state that the core area had 4.8 times higher wild ungulate biomass compared with the buffer zone, highlighting the importance of undisturbed area. Chital was found to be most abundant, having a density of 30.1(SE 4.34)/km2 and contributing 33% of the biomass with a habitat preference for grassland. Unlike other ungulates, Gaur being mega herbivore, showed a major seasonal shift in density from bamboo-mixed and sal forest in summer to miscellaneous forest in winter. Maximum diversity and ungulate biomass were supported by grassland followed by bamboo-mixed habitat. Our study stresses the importance of inviolate core areas for achieving high wild ungulate densities and for maintaining populations of endangered and rare species. Grasslands accounts for 9% of the core area of KTR maintained in arrested stage of succession, therefore enhancing this habitat would maintain ungulate diversity, density and cater to the needs of only surviving population of the endangered barasingha and grassland specialist the blackbuck. We show the relevance of different habitat types for differential seasonal use by ungulates and attempt to interpret this in the context of nutrition and cover needs by wild ungulates. Management for an optimal habitat mosaic that maintains ungulate diversity and maximizes ungulate biomass is recommended.Keywords: distance sampling, habitat management, ungulate biomass, diversity
Procedia PDF Downloads 3032037 Seasonal Variability of Aerosol Optical Properties and Their Radiative Effects over Indo-Gangetic Plain in India
Authors: Kanika Taneja, V. K. Soni, S. D. Attri, Kafeel Ahmad, Shamshad Ahmad
Abstract:
Aerosols represent an important component of earth-atmosphere system and have a profound impact on the global and regional climate. With the growing population and urbanization, the aerosol load in the atmosphere over the Indian region is found to be increasing. Several studies have reported that the aerosol optical depth over the northern part of India is higher as compared to the southern part. The northern India along the Indo-Gangetic plain is often influenced with dust transported from the Thar Desert in northwestern India and from Arabian Peninsula during the pre-monsoon season. Seasonal variations in aerosol optical and radiative properties were examined using data retrieved from ground based multi-wavelength Prede Sun/sky radiometer (POM-02) over Delhi, Rohtak, Jodhpur and Varanasi for the period April 2011-April 2013. These stations are part of the Skynet-India network of India Meteorological Department. The Sun/sky radiometer (POM-02) has advantage over other instruments that it can be calibrated on-site. These aerosol optical properties retrieved from skyradiometer observations are further used to analyze the Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcing (DARF) over the study locations.Keywords: aerosol optical properties, indo- gangetic plain, radiative forcing, sky radiometer
Procedia PDF Downloads 5432036 Effect on Yield and Yield Components of Different Irrigation Levels in Edible Seed Pumpkin Growing
Authors: Musa Seymen, Duran Yavuz, Nurcan Yavuz, Önder Türkmen
Abstract:
Edible seed pumpkin (Cucurbita pepo L.) is one of the important edibles preferred by consumer in Turkey due to its higher nutrient contents. However, there is almost very few study on water consumption and irrigation water requirement of confectionary edible seed pumpkin in Turkey. Therefore, a 2-year study (2013-2014) was conducted to determine the effects of irrigation levels on the seed yield and yield components of drip-irrigated confectionary edible seed pumpkin under Turkey conditions. In the study, the experimental design was made in randomized blocks with three replications. Treatments consisted of five irrigation water levels that compensated for the 100% (I100, full irrigation), 75% (I75), 50% (I50), 25% (I25) and 0% (I0, no irrigation) of crop water requirements at 14-day irrigation intervals. Seasonal evapotranspiration of treatments varied from 194.2 to 625.2 mm in 2013 and from 208.6 to 556.6 mm in 2014. In both years, the highest seasonal evapotranspiration was obtained in I100 treatment. Average across years, the seed yields ranged between 1090 (I100) and 422 (I0) kg ha-1. The irrigation treatments were found to significantly affect the yield parameters such as the seed yield, oil seed yield number of seeds per fruit, seed size, seed width, fruit size, fruit width and fruit index.Keywords: irrigation level, edible seed pumpkin, seed quality, seed yield
Procedia PDF Downloads 3012035 Dual-functional Peptide With Defective Interfering Genes Protecting Mice From Avian and Seasonal Influenza Virus Infection
Authors: Hanjun Zhao
Abstract:
Limited efficacy of current antivirals and antiviral-resistant mutations impair anti-influenza treatment. Here, we evaluated the in vitro and in vivo antiviral effect of three defective interfering genes (DIG-3) of influenza virus. Virus replication was significantly reduced in 293T and A549 cells transfected with DIG-3. Mice transfected with DIG-3 encoded by jetPEI-vector, as prophylaxis and therapeutics against A(H7N7) virus respectively, had significantly better survivals (80% and 50%) than control mice (0%). We further developed a dual-functional peptide TAT-P1, which delivers DIG-3 with high transfection efficiency and concomitantly exerts antiviral activity by preventing endosomal acidification. TAT-P1/DIG-3 was more effective than jetPEI/DIG-3 in treating A(H7N7) or A(H1N1)pdm09-infected mice and showed potent prophylactic protection on A(H7N7) or A(H1N1)pdm09-infected mice. The addition of P1 peptide, preventing endosomal acidification, could enhance the protection of TAT-P1/DIG-3 on A(H1N1)pdm09-infected mice. Dual-functional TAT-P1 with DIG-3 can effectively protect or treat mice infected by avian and seasonal influenza virus infection.Keywords: antiviral peptide, dual-functional peptide, defective interfering genes, influenza virus
Procedia PDF Downloads 1222034 Impact of Climate Change on Some Physiological Parameters of Cyclic Female Egyptian Buffalo
Authors: Nabil Abu-Heakal, Ismail Abo-Ghanema, Basma Hamed Merghani
Abstract:
The aim of this investigation is to study the effect of seasonal variations in Egypt on hematological parameters, reproductive and metabolic hormones of Egyptian buffalo-cows. This study lasted one year extending from December 2009 to November 2010 and was conducted on sixty buffalo-cows. Group of 5 buffalo-cows at estrus phase were selected monthly. Then, after blood sampling through tail vein puncture in the 2nd day after natural service, they were divided in two samples: one with anticoagulant for hematological analysis and the other without anticoagulant for serum separation. Results of this investigation revealed that the highest atmospheric temperature was in hot summer 32.61±1.12°C versus 26.18±1.67°C in spring and 19.92±0.70°C in winter season, while the highest relative humidity % was in winter season 43.50±1.60% versus 32.50±2.29% in summer season. The rise in temperature-humidity index from 63.73±1.29 in winter to 78.53±1.58 in summer indicates severe heat stress which is associated with significant reduction in total red blood cell count (3.20±0.15×106), hemoglobin concentration (8.83±0.43 g/dl), packed cell volume (30.73±0.12%), lymphocytes % (40.66±2.33 %), serum progesterone hormone concentration (0.56±0.03 ng/mll), estradiol17-B concentration (16.8±0.64 ng/ml), triiodothyronin (T3) concentration (2.33±0.33 ng/ml) and thyroxin hormone (T4) concentration (21.66±1.66 ng/ml), while hot summer resulted in significant increase in mean cell volume (96.55±2.25 fl), mean cell hemoglobin (30.81±1.33 pg), total white blood cell count (10.63±0.97×103), neutrophils % (49.66±2.33%), serum prolactin hormone (PRL) concentration (23.45±1.72 ng/ml) and cortisol hormone concentration (4.47±0.33 ng/ml) compared to winter season. There was no significant seasonal variation in mean cell hemoglobin concentration (MCHC). It was concluded that in Egypt there was a seasonal variation in atmospheric temperature, relative humidity, temperature humidity index (THI) and the rise in THI above the upper critical level (72 units), which, for lactating buffalo-cows in Egypt is the major constraint on buffalo-cows' hematological parameters and hormonal secretion that affects animal reproduction. Hence, we should improve climatic conditions inside the dairy farm to eliminate or reduce summer infertility.Keywords: buffalo, climate change, Egypt, physiological parameters
Procedia PDF Downloads 6602033 Administrative Determinants of Students' Sports Participation in Private and Public Secondary Schools in Kwara State, Nigeria
Authors: Danjuma Moudu Momoh
Abstract:
Participation in sports is of immense benefit to the soundness of individual mental and social wellness, particularly among youngsters. The 1980’s and 1990’s compared to 2000’s witnessed great involvement of youngsters in school games arising from the high administrative supports attached to sports. Previous studies in an attempt to increase youngster’s participation in sports had focused more on other factors rather than on administrative factors. This study, therefore, investigated the importance of administrative factors (availability of facilities, availability of equipment, funding, scheduling of sports programme and administrative style of school principals) on students’ sports participation in private and public secondary schools in Kwara State, Nigeria. Descriptive survey research design using validated and structured questionnaire, was adopted. Stratified random sampling technique was used to pick the students both male and female. A total of two thousand five hundred and sixty participants were involved in the study. A reliable coefficient of r=0.82 was obtained for the instruments using Cronbach Alpha. Data were analyzed using multiple regressions to test the hypotheses at 00.5 significant levels. At the end of the study, it was discovered that the relative contributions of administrative factors among the students were: availability of facilities (β=0.314), availability of equipment (β=0.444), funding (β=0.301), scheduling of sports programme (β=0.447), made relative contributions to the dependent variable, administrative style of school principal (β=0.077) did not make significant but minimal contribution to the student’s sports participation.Keywords: administrative determinants, secondary school students, physical activity, sports participation
Procedia PDF Downloads 5502032 Evaluating and Reducing Aircraft Technical Delays and Cancellations Impact on Reliability Operational: Case Study of Airline Operator
Authors: Adel A. Ghobbar, Ahmad Bakkar
Abstract:
Although special care is given to maintenance, aircraft systems fail, and these failures cause delays and cancellations. The occurrence of Delays and Cancellations affects operators and manufacturers negatively. To reduce technical delays and cancellations, one should be able to determine the important systems causing them. The goal of this research is to find a method to define the most expensive delays and cancellations systems for Airline operators. A predictive model was introduced to forecast the failure and their impact after carrying out research that identifies relevant information to tackle the problems faced while answering the questions of this paper. Data were obtained from the manufacturers’ services reliability team database. Subsequently, delays and cancellations evaluation methods were identified. No cost estimation methods were used due to their complexity. The model was developed, and it takes into account the frequency of delays and cancellations and uses weighting factors to give an indication of the severity of their duration. The weighting factors are based on customer experience. The data Analysis approach has shown that delays and cancellations events are not seasonal and do not follow any specific trends. The use of weighting factor does have an influence on the shortlist over short periods (Monthly) but not the analyzed period of three years. Landing gear and the navigation system are among the top 3 factors causing delays and cancellations for all three aircraft types. The results did confirm that the cooperation between certain operators and manufacture reduce the impact of delays and cancellations.Keywords: reliability, availability, delays & cancellations, aircraft maintenance
Procedia PDF Downloads 1322031 Soil/Phytofisionomy Relationship in Southeast of Chapada Diamantina, Bahia, Brazil
Authors: Marcelo Araujo da Nóbrega, Ariel Moura Vilas Boas
Abstract:
This study aims to characterize the physicochemical aspects of the soils of southeastern Chapada Diamantina - Bahia related to the phytophysiognomies of this area, rupestrian field, small savanna (savanna fields), small dense savanna (savanna fields), savanna (Cerrado), dry thorny forest (Caatinga), dry thorny forest/savanna, scrub (Carrasco - ecotone), forest island (seasonal semi-deciduous forest - Capão) and seasonal semi-deciduous forest. To achieve the research objective, soil samples were collected in each plant formation and analyzed in the soil laboratory of ESALQ - USP in order to identify soil fertility through the determination of pH, organic matter, phosphorus, potassium, calcium, magnesium, potential acidity, sum of bases, cation exchange capacity and base saturation. The composition of soil particles was also checked; that is, the texture, step made in the terrestrial ecosystems laboratory of the Department of Ecology of USP and in the soil laboratory of ESALQ. Another important factor also studied was to show the variations in the vegetation cover in the region as a function of soil moisture in the different existing physiographic environments. Another study carried out was a comparison between the average soil moisture data with precipitation data from three locations with very different phytophysiognomies. The soils found in this part of Bahia can be classified into 5 classes, with a predominance of oxisols. All of these classes have a great diversity of physical and chemical properties, as can be seen in photographs and in particle size and fertility analyzes. The deepest soils are located in the Central Pediplano of Chapada Diamantina where the dirty field, the clean field, the executioner and the semideciduous seasonal forest (Capão) are located, and the shallower soils were found in the rupestrian field, dry thorny forest, and savanna fields, the latter located on a hillside. As for the variations in water in the region's soil, the data indicate that there were large spatial variations in humidity in both the rainy and dry periods.Keywords: Bahia, Brazil, chapada diamantina, phytophysiognomies, soils
Procedia PDF Downloads 1442030 Solar Still Absorber Plate Modification and Exergy Analysis
Authors: Dudul Das, Pankaj Kalita, Sangeeta Borah
Abstract:
Freshwater availability in the world is as low as 1% of total water available and in many geographical locations dissolved fluoride and arsenic are serious problem. In India availability of freshwater will be stressed by 2025, so the availability saline water from sea is a hope for the people of Indian sub-continent, but saline water is not drinkable it need to be processed, which again require a huge amount of energy. So the most easy and handy option in such situation for all those problems is solar still, this investigation presents various scopes for improvement of its efficiency. Experiments showed that by increasing the absorber plate area through better design can increase the distillate output by two fold and by using jute wicks in the modified absorber plate increases the output up to three times that of conventional solar still available in the Department of Energy, Tezpur University. The experiment is carried out at constant water depth of 8.5 cm and glass cover inclination of 27o facing South. The exergy analysis carried out clearly resulted that with the use of jute wick and baffle plated basin the efficiency achieved more than the simple baffle plated basin. The Instantaneous exergy without jute wick ranges from 2.5% to 4.5% while using jute it ranges from 1.5% to 5.15%.Keywords: fluoride, absorber plate, jute wick, instantaneous exergy
Procedia PDF Downloads 4632029 Using Stable Isotopes and Hydrochemical Characteristics to Assess Stream Water Sources and Flow Paths: A Case Study of the Jonkershoek Catchment, South Africa
Authors: Retang A. Mokua, Julia Glenday, Jacobus M. Nel
Abstract:
Understanding hydrological processes in mountain headwater catchments, such as the Jonkershoek Valley, is crucial for improving the predictive capability of hydrologic modeling in the Cape Fold Mountain region of South Africa, incorporating the influence of the Table Mountain Group fractured rock aquifers. Determining the contributions of various possible surface and subsurface flow pathways in such catchments has been a challenge due to the complex nature of the fractured rock geology, low ionic concentrations, high rainfall, and streamflow variability. The study aimed to describe the mechanisms of streamflow generation during two seasons (dry and wet). In this study, stable isotopes of water (18O and 2H), hydrochemical tracer electrical conductivity (EC), hydrometric data were used to assess the spatial and temporal variation in flow pathways and geographic sources of stream water. Stream water, groundwater, two shallow piezometers, and spring samples were routinely sampled at two adjacent headwater sub-catchments and analyzed for isotopic ratios during baseflow conditions between January 2018 and January 2019. From these results, no significance (p > 0.05) in seasonal variations in isotopic ratios were observed, the stream isotope signatures were consistent throughout the study period. However, significant seasonal and spatial variations in the EC were evident (p < 0.05). The findings suggest that, in the dry season, baseflow generation mechanisms driven by groundwater and interflow as discharge from perennial springs in these catchments are the primary contributors. The wet season flows were attributed to interflow and perennial and ephemeral springs. Furthermore, the observed seasonal variations in EC were indicative of a greater proportion of sub-surface water inputs. With these results, a conceptual model of streamflow generation processes for the two seasons was constructed.Keywords: electrical conductivity, Jonkershoek valley, stable isotopes, table mountain group
Procedia PDF Downloads 1092028 Effects of Two Distinct Monsoon Seasons on the Water Quality of a Tropical Crater Lake
Authors: Maurice A. Duka, Leobel Von Q. Tamayo, Niño Carlo I. Casim
Abstract:
The paucity of long-term measurements and monitoring of accurate water quality parameter profiles is evident for small and deep tropical lakes in Southeast Asia. This leads to a poor understanding of the stratification and mixing dynamics of these lakes in the region. The water quality dynamics of Sampaloc Lake, a tropical crater lake (104 ha, 27 m deep) in the Philippines, were investigated to understand how monsoon-driven conditions impact water quality and ecological health. Located in an urban area with approximately 10% of its surface area allocated to aquaculture, the lake is subject to distinct seasonal changes associated with the Northeast (NE) and Southwest (SW) monsoons. NE Monsoon typically occurs from October to April, while SW monsoon from May to September. These monsoons influence the lake’s water temperature, dissolved oxygen (DO), chlorophyll-α (chl-α), phycocyanin (PC), and turbidity, leading to significant seasonal variability. Monthly field observations of water quality parameters were made from October 2022 to September 2023 using a multi-parameter probe, YSI ProDSS, together with the collection of meteorological data during the same period. During the NE monsoon, cooler air temperatures and winds with sustained speeds caused surface water temperatures to drop from 30.9 ºC in October to 25.5 ºC in January, resulting in the weakening of stratification and eventually in lake turnover. This turnover redistributed nutrients from hypolimnetic layers to surface layers, increasing chl-α and PC levels (14-41 and 0-2 µg/L) throughout the water column. The fish kill was also observed during the lake’s turnover event as a result of the mixing of hypoxic hypolimnetic waters. Turbidity levels (0-3 NTU) were generally low but showed mid-column peaks in October, which was linked to thermocline-related effects, while low values in November followed heavy rainfall dilution and mixing effects. Conversely, the SW monsoon showed increased surface temperatures (28-30 ºC), shallow thermocline formations (3-11 m), and lower surface chl-α and PC levels (2-8 and 0-0.5 µg/L, respectively), likely due to limited nutrient mixing and more stable stratification. Turbidity was notably higher also in July (11-15 NTU) due to intense rainfall and reduced light penetration, which minimized photosynthetic activity. The SW monsoon also coincided with the typhoon season in the study area, resulting in partial upwelling of nutrients during strong storm events. These findings emphasize the need for continued monitoring of Sampaloc Lake’s seasonal water quality patterns, as monsoon-driven changes are crucial to maintaining its ecological balance and sustainability.Keywords: seasonal water quality dynamics, Philippine tropical lake, monsoon-driven conditions, stratification and mixing
Procedia PDF Downloads 102027 Environmental Geochemistry of Natural Geysers in an Urban Zone of Mexico
Authors: Zayre I. Gonzalez-Acevedo, Marco A. Garcia-Zarate
Abstract:
Environmental pollution by heavy metals is due to several processes, whether natural as weathering, or anthropogenic, related to human activities. Geysers may content dissolved heavy metals, related with their geothermal origin, and they are widely used by local people and tourists for treatment of dermal diseases and other therapeutic applications. In this study, 20 geysers with temperatures between 32 to 94 °C, located in the vicinity of Queretaro and Guanajuato in Central Mexico, were studied. These geysers were sampled in dry and rainy seasons in order to investigate seasonal changes of trace elements. The samples were analyzed in SWAMP Lab, University of Alberta, Canada for 34 elements. Most of the analyzed trace elements sowed concentrations below guidelines for natural waters. The elements showed seasonal variability with higher concentrations during rainy season. Arsenic varied from 49.29 to 2.16 µg L⁻¹. Arsenic was highly correlated with Fe, Sr, Th and Tl. Barium varied from 93.52 to 1.79 µg L⁻¹. Barium was highly correlated with Co, Cr, Mo, Ni, U, V, and Y. Copper and Zinc were correlated as well. According to the comparison of sites and the correlations between trace elements, their source was identified as natural regional, geothermal or anthropogenic origin. Because of application of geyser's water to balneology and health treatments, and also, because they are located in an urban zone in development, advise on their direct uses, according to their environmental quality is appointed in this research.Keywords: balneology, direct uses, environmental quality and trace elements
Procedia PDF Downloads 1602026 Satellite Derived Snow Cover Status and Trends in the Indus Basin Reservoir
Authors: Muhammad Tayyab Afzal, Muhammad Arslan, Mirza Muhammad Waqar
Abstract:
Snow constitutes an important component of the cryosphere, characterized by high temporal and spatial variability. Because of the contribution of snow melt to water availability, snow is an important focus for research on climate change and adaptation. MODIS satellite data have been used to identify spatial-temporal trends in snow cover in the upper Indus basin. For this research MODIS satellite 8 day composite data of medium resolution (250m) have been analysed from 2001-2005.Pixel based supervised classification have been performed and extent of snow have been calculated of all the images. Results show large variation in snow cover between years while an increasing trend from west to east is observed. Temperature data for the Upper Indus Basin (UIB) have been analysed for seasonal and annual trends over the period 2001-2005 and calibrated with the results acquired by the research. From the analysis it is concluded that there are indications that regional warming is one of the factor that is affecting the hydrology of the upper Indus basin due to accelerated glacial melting during the simulation period, stream flow in the upper Indus basin can be predicted with a high degree of accuracy. This conclusion is also supported by the research of ICIMOD in which there is an observation that the average annual precipitation over a five year period is less than the observed stream flow and supported by positive temperature trends in all seasons.Keywords: indus basin, MODIS, remote sensing, snow cover
Procedia PDF Downloads 3872025 Effects of Soil Erosion on Vegetation Development
Authors: Josephine Wanja Nyatia
Abstract:
The relationship between vegetation and soil erosion deserves attention due to its scientific importance and practical applications. A great deal of information is available about the mechanisms and benefits of vegetation in the control of soil erosion, but the effects of soil erosion on vegetation development and succession is poorly documented. Research shows that soil erosion is the most important driving force for the degradation of upland and mountain ecosystems. Soil erosion interferes with the process of plant community development and vegetation succession, commencing with seed formation and impacting throughout the whole growth phase and affecting seed availability, dispersal, germination and establishment, plant community structure and spatial distribution. There have been almost no studies on the effects of soil erosion on seed development and availability, of surface flows on seed movement and redistribution, and their influences on soil seed bank and on vegetation establishment and distribution. However, these effects may be the main cause of low vegetation cover in regions of high soil erosion activity, and these issues need to be investigated. Moreover, soil erosion is not only a negative influence on vegetation succession and restoration but also a driving force of plant adaptation and evolution. Consequently, we need to study the effects of soil erosion on ecological processes and on development and regulation of vegetation succession from the points of view of pedology and vegetation, plant and seed ecology, and to establish an integrated theory and technology for deriving practical solutions to soil erosion problemsKeywords: soil erosion, vegetation, development, seed availability
Procedia PDF Downloads 852024 Foodborne Outbreak Calendar: Application of Time Series Analysis
Authors: Ryan B. Simpson, Margaret A. Waskow, Aishwarya Venkat, Elena N. Naumova
Abstract:
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimate that 31 known foodborne pathogens cause 9.4 million cases of these illnesses annually in US. Over 90% of these illnesses are associated with exposure to Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium, Cyclospora, Listeria, Salmonella, Shigella, Shiga-Toxin Producing E.Coli (STEC), Vibrio, and Yersinia. Contaminated products contain parasites typically causing an intestinal illness manifested by diarrhea, stomach cramping, nausea, weight loss, fatigue and may result in deaths in fragile populations. Since 1998, the National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS) has allowed for routine collection of suspected and laboratory-confirmed cases of food poisoning. While retrospective analyses have revealed common pathogen-specific seasonal patterns, little is known concerning the stability of those patterns over time and whether they can be used for preventative forecasting. The objective of this study is to construct a calendar of foodborne outbreaks of nine infections based on the peak timing of outbreak incidence in the US from 1996 to 2017. Reported cases were abstracted from FoodNet for Salmonella (135115), Campylobacter (121099), Shigella (48520), Cryptosporidium (21701), STEC (18022), Yersinia (3602), Vibrio (3000), Listeria (2543), and Cyclospora (758). Monthly counts were compiled for each agent, seasonal peak timing and peak intensity were estimated, and the stability of seasonal peaks and synchronization of infections was examined. Negative Binomial harmonic regression models with the delta-method were applied to derive confidence intervals for the peak timing for each year and overall study period estimates. Preliminary results indicate that five infections continue to lead as major causes of outbreaks, exhibiting steady upward trends with annual increases in cases ranging from 2.71% (95%CI: [2.38, 3.05]) in Campylobacter, 4.78% (95%CI: [4.14, 5.41]) in Salmonella, 7.09% (95%CI: [6.38, 7.82]) in E.Coli, 7.71% (95%CI: [6.94, 8.49]) in Cryptosporidium, and 8.67% (95%CI: [7.55, 9.80]) in Vibrio. Strong synchronization of summer outbreaks were observed, caused by Campylobacter, Vibrio, E.Coli and Salmonella, peaking at 7.57 ± 0.33, 7.84 ± 0.47, 7.85 ± 0.37, and 7.82 ± 0.14 calendar months, respectively, with the serial cross-correlation ranging 0.81-0.88 (p < 0.001). Over 21 years, Listeria and Cryptosporidium peaks (8.43 ± 0.77 and 8.52 ± 0.45 months, respectively) have a tendency to arrive 1-2 weeks earlier, while Vibrio peaks (7.8 ± 0.47) delay by 2-3 weeks. These findings will be incorporated in the forecast models to predict common paths of the spread, long-term trends, and the synchronization of outbreaks across etiological agents. The predictive modeling of foodborne outbreaks should consider long-term changes in seasonal timing, spatiotemporal trends, and sources of contamination.Keywords: foodborne outbreak, national outbreak reporting system, predictive modeling, seasonality
Procedia PDF Downloads 128