Search results for: poisson process

Authors: Fouzia Khanam, Belal Hossain, Kaosar Afsana, Mahfuzar Rahman

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Aim: Although cardiovascular diseases (CVD) has already been recognized as a major cause of death in developed countries, its prevalence is rising in developing countries as well, and engendering a challenge for the health sector. Bangladesh has experienced an epidemiological transition from communicable to non-communicable diseases over the last few decades. So, the rising prevalence of CVD and its risk factors are imposing a major problem for the country. We aimed to examine the prevalence of CVDs and socioeconomic and lifestyle factors related to it from a population-based survey. Methods: The data used for this study were collected as a part of a large-scale cross-sectional study conducted to explore the overall health status of children, mothers and senior citizens of Bangladesh. Multistage cluster random sampling procedure was applied by considering unions as clusters and households as the primary sampling unit to select a total of 11,428 households for the base survey. Present analysis encompassed 12338 respondents of ≥ 35 years, selected from both rural areas and urban slums of the country. Socio-economic, demographic and lifestyle information were obtained through individual by a face-to-face interview which was noted in ODK platform. And height, weight, blood pressure and glycosuria were measured using standardized methods. Chi-square test, Univariate modified Poisson regression model, and multivariate modified Poisson regression model were done using STATA software (version 13.0) for analysis. Results: Overall, the prevalence of CVD was 4.51%, of which 1.78% had stroke and 3.17% suffered from heart diseases. Male had higher prevalence of stroke (2.20%) than their counterparts (1.37%). Notably, thirty percent of respondents had high blood pressure and 5% population had diabetes and more than half of the population was pre-hypertensive. Additionally, 20% were overweight, 77% were smoker or consumed smokeless tobacco and 28% of respondents were physically inactive. Eighty-two percent of respondents took extra salt while eating and 29% of respondents had deprived sleep. Furthermore, the prevalence of risk factor of CVD varied according to gender. Women had a higher prevalence of overweight, obesity and diabetes. Women were also less physically active compared to men and took more extra salt. Smoking was lower in women compared to men. Moreover, women slept less compared to their counterpart. After adjusting confounders in modified Poisson regression model, age, gender, occupation, wealth quintile, BMI, extra salt intake, daily sleep, tiredness, diabetes, and hypertension remained as risk factors for CVD. Conclusion: The prevalence of CVD is significant in Bangladesh, and there is an evidence of rising trend for its risk factors such as hypertension, diabetes especially in older population, women and high-income groups. Therefore, in this current epidemiological transition, immediate public health intervention is warranted to address the overwhelming CVD risk.

Keywords: cardiovascular diseases, diabetes, hypertension, stroke

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Authors: Syed Afrozuddin Ahmed, Junaid Saghir Siddiqi, Sabah Quaiser

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Various studies have reported that global warming causes unstable climate and many serious impact to physical environment and public health. The increasing incidence of dengue incidence is now a priority health issue and become a health burden of Pakistan. In this study it has been investigated that spatial pattern of environment causes the emergence or increasing rate of dengue fever incidence that effects the population and its health. The climatic or environmental structure data and the Dengue Fever (DF) data was processed by coding, editing, tabulating, recoding, restructuring in terms of re-tabulating was carried out, and finally applying different statistical methods, techniques, and procedures for the evaluation. Five climatic variables which we have studied are precipitation (P), Maximum temperature (Mx), Minimum temperature (Mn), Humidity (H) and Wind speed (W) collected from 1980-2012. The dengue cases in Karachi from 2010 to 2012 are reported on weekly basis. Principal component analysis is applied to explore the climatic variables and/or the climatic (structure) which may influence in the increase or decrease in the number of dengue fever cases in Karachi. PC1 for all the period is General atmospheric condition. PC2 for dengue period is contrast between precipitation and wind speed. PC3 is the weighted difference between maximum temperature and wind speed. PC4 for dengue period contrast between maximum and wind speed. Negative binomial and Poisson regression model are used to correlate the dengue fever incidence to climatic variable and principal component score. Relative humidity is estimated to positively influence on the chances of dengue occurrence by 1.71% times. Maximum temperature positively influence on the chances dengue occurrence by 19.48% times. Minimum temperature affects positively on the chances of dengue occurrence by 11.51% times. Wind speed is effecting negatively on the weekly occurrence of dengue fever by 7.41% times.

Keywords: principal component analysis, dengue fever, negative binomial regression model, poisson regression model

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Authors: Meghdad Payan, Kostas Senetakis, Arman Khoshghalb, Nasser Khalili

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Dynamic properties of soils, especially at the range of very small strains, are of particular interest in geotechnical engineering practice for characterization of the behavior of geo-structures subjected to a variety of stress states. This study reports on the small-strain dynamic properties of sand-silt mixtures with particular emphasis on the effect of non-plastic fines content on the small strain shear modulus (Gmax), Young’s Modulus (Emax), material damping (Ds,min) and Poisson’s Ratio (v). Several clean sands with a wide range of grain size characteristics and particle shape are mixed with variable percentages of a silica non-plastic silt as fines content. Prepared specimens of sand-silt mixtures at different initial void ratios are subjected to sequential torsional and flexural resonant column tests with elastic dynamic properties measured along an isotropic stress path up to 800 kPa. It is shown that while at low percentages of fines content, there is a significant difference between the dynamic properties of the various samples due to the different characteristics of the sand portion of the mixtures, this variance diminishes as the fines content increases and the soil behavior becomes mainly silt-dominant, rendering no significant influence of sand properties on the elastic dynamic parameters. Indeed, beyond a specific portion of fines content, around 20% to 30% typically denoted as threshold fines content, silt is controlling the behavior of the mixture. Using the experimental results, new expressions for the prediction of small-strain dynamic properties of sand-silt mixtures are developed accounting for the percentage of silt and the characteristics of the sand portion. These expressions are general in nature and are capable of evaluating the elastic dynamic properties of sand-silt mixtures with any types of parent sand in the whole range of silt percentage. The inefficiency of skeleton void ratio concept in the estimation of small-strain stiffness of sand-silt mixtures is also illustrated.

Keywords: damping ratio, Poisson’s ratio, resonant column, sand-silt mixture, shear modulus, Young’s modulus

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Authors: Sungho Kim, Dae Shik Kim, Jong Min Lee

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Fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) process is one of the most important process in modern refinery industry. This paper focuses on the fluid catalytic cracking (FCC) process. As the FCC process is difficult to model well, due to its non linearities and various interactions between its process variables, rigorous process modeling of whole FCC plant is demanded for control and plant-wide optimization of the plant. In this study, a process design for the FCC plant includes riser reactor, main fractionator, and gas processing unit was developed. A reactor model was described based on four-lumped kinetic scheme. Main fractionator, gas processing unit and other process units are designed to simulate real plant data, using a process flow sheet simulator, Aspen PLUS. The custom reactor model was integrated with the process flow sheet simulator to develop an integrated process model.

Keywords: fluid catalytic cracking, simulation, plant data, process design

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Authors: Di Han, Lingfeng Li

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Selection of low-temperature separation dehydration and dehydrochlorination process applicable to skid design, using Hysys software to simulate the low-temperature separation dehydration and dehydrochlorination process under different refrigeration modes, focusing on comparing the refrigeration effect of different refrigeration modes, the condensation amount of hydrocarbon liquids and alcoholic wastewater, as well as the adaptability of the process, and determining the low-temperature separation process applicable to the natural gas dehydration and dehydrochlorination skid into the design of skid; and finally, to carry out the CNG recycling process calculations of the processed qualified natural gas and to determine the dehydration scheme and the key parameters of the compression process.

Keywords: skidding, dehydration and dehydrochlorination, cryogenic separation process, CNG recovery process calculations

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Authors: Ricardo Torcato, Helder Morais

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The manufacture of crystal glass parts is based on obtaining the rough geometry by blowing and/or injection, generally followed by a set of manual finishing operations using cutting and grinding tools. The forming techniques used do not allow the obtainment, with repeatability, of parts with complex shapes and the finishing operations use intensive specialized labor resulting in high cycle times and production costs. This work aims to explore the digital manufacture of crystal glass parts by investigating new subtractive techniques for the automated, flexible finishing of these parts. Finishing operations are essential to respond to customer demands in terms of crystal feel and shine. It is intended to investigate the applicability of different computerized finishing technologies, namely milling and grinding in a CNC machining center with or without ultrasonic assistance, to crystal processing. Research in the field of grinding hard and brittle materials, despite not being extensive, has increased in recent years, and scientific knowledge about the machinability of crystal glass is still very limited. However, it can be said that the unique properties of glass, such as high hardness and very low toughness, make any glass machining technology a very challenging process. This work will measure the performance improvement brought about by the use of ultrasound compared to conventional crystal grinding. This presentation is focused on the mechanical characterization and analysis of the cutting forces in CNC machining of superior crystal glass (Pb ≥ 30%). For the mechanical characterization, the Vickers hardness test provides an estimate of the material hardness (Hv) and the fracture toughness based on cracks that appear in the indentation. Mechanical impulse excitation test estimates the Young’s Modulus, shear modulus and Poisson ratio of the material. For the cutting forces, it a dynamometer was used to measure the forces in the face grinding process. The tests were made based on the Taguchi method to correlate the input parameters (feed rate, tool rotation speed and depth of cut) with the output parameters (surface roughness and cutting forces) to optimize the process (better roughness using the cutting forces that do not compromise the material structure and the tool life) using ANOVA. This study was conducted for conventional grinding and for the ultrasonic grinding process with the same cutting tools. It was possible to determine the optimum cutting parameters for minimum cutting forces and for minimum surface roughness in both grinding processes. Ultrasonic-assisted grinding provides a better surface roughness than conventional grinding.

Keywords: CNC machining, crystal glass, cutting forces, hardness

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Authors: Sadok Aboubakr

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The mechanical behavior of cracks from several manufacturing defect in an oil pipeline, is characterized by the fact that defects'm taking several forms: circumferential, longitudinal and inclined crack that evolve over time. Increased lifetime of the constructions and in particular cylindrical tubes under internal pressure requires knowledge improving these defects during loading. From this study we simulated various forms of cracking and also their pipeline repair patch.

Keywords: stress intensity factor, pressure, Young's modulus, Poisson's ratio, Shear modulus, Longueur du pipeline, the angle of crack, crack length

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Authors: K. Shoylekova, K. Grigorova

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The Petri nets are the first standard for business process modeling. Most probably, it is one of the core reasons why all new standards created afterwards have to be so reformed as to reach the stage of mapping the new standard onto Petri nets. The paper presents a Business process repository based on a universal database. The repository provides the possibility the data about a given process to be stored in three different ways. Business process repository is developed with regard to the reformation of a given model to a Petri net in order to be easily simulated two different techniques for business process simulation based on Petri nets - Yasper and Woflan are discussed. Their advantages and drawbacks are outlined. The way of simulating business process models, stored in the Business process repository is shown.

Keywords: business process repository, petri nets, simulation, Woflan, Yasper

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Authors: A. Mezzidi, H. Hamli Benzahar

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The present study evaluates the stress and stress intensity factor during the propagation of a crack at presence of a dislocation near of crack tip. The problem is formulated using a glass material having an equivalent elasticity modulus and a Poisson ratio. In this research work, the proposed material is a plate form with a main crack in one of these ends and a dislocation near this crack, subjected to tensile stresses according to the mode 1 opening. For each distance between the two cracks, we can determine these stresses. This study is treated by finite elements method by using the software (ABAQUS) rate. It is shown here in that obtained results agreed with those determined by other researchers

Keywords: crack, dislocation, finite element, glass

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Authors: S. Bangphan, P. Bangphan, T.Boonkang

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Quality control helps industries in improvements of its product quality and productivity. Statistical Process Control (SPC) is one of the tools to control the quality of products that turning practice in bringing a department of industrial engineering process under control. In this research, the process control of a turning manufactured at workshops machines. The varying measurements have been recorded for a number of samples of a rice polished cylinder obtained from a number of trials with the turning practice. SPC technique has been adopted by the process is finally brought under control and process capability is improved.

Keywords: rice polished cylinder, statistical process control, control charts, process capability

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Authors: Ljubica Milanović Glavan

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Because of the increasing business pressures, companies must be adaptable and flexible in order to withstand them. Inadequate business processes and low level of business process orientation, that in its core accentuates business processes as opposed to business functions and focuses on process performance and customer satisfaction, hider the ability to adapt to changing environment. It has been shown in previous studies that the companies which have reached higher business process maturity level consistently outperform those that have not reached them. The aim of this paper is to provide a basic understanding of business process orientation concept and business process maturity model. Besides that the paper presents the state of business process orientation in Croatia that has been captured with a study conducted in 2013. Based on the results some practical implications and guidelines for managers are given.

Keywords: business process orientation, business process maturity, Croatia, maturity score

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Authors: Mohammad Ehson Rangiha, Bill Karakostas

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Social Business Process Management (SBPM) promises to overcome limitations of traditional BPM by allowing flexible process design and enactment through the involvement of users from a social community. This paper proposes a meta-model and architecture for socially driven business process management systems. It discusses the main facets of the architecture such as goal-based role assignment that combines social recommendations with user profile, and process recommendation, through a real example of a charity organization.

Keywords: business process management, goal-based modelling, process recommendation social collaboration, social BPM

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Authors: A. Rahaf, S. Liyakathunsia

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In today’s world, unprecedented operational pressure is faced by banks that test the efficiency, effectiveness, and agility of their business processes. In a typical banking process, a person’s authorization is usually based on his signature on most all of the transactions. Signature verification is considered as one of the highly significant information needed for any bank document processing. Banks usually use Signature Verification to authenticate the identity of individuals. In this paper, a business process model has been proposed in order to increase the quality of the verification process and to reduce time and needed resources. In order to understand the current process, a survey has been conducted and distributed among bank employees. After analyzing the survey, a process model has been created using Bizagi modeler which helps in simulating the process after assigning time and cost of it. The outcomes show that the automation of signature verification process is highly recommended for a banking business process.

Keywords: business process management, process modeling, quality, Signature Verification

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Authors: Hans Frenk, Sonya Javadi, Semih Onur Sezer

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We consider the so-called end of life inventory problem for the supplier of a product in its final phase of the service life cycle. This phase starts when the production of the items stops and continues until the warranty of the last sold item expires. At the beginning of this phase, the supplier places a final order for spare parts to serve customers coming with defective items. At any time during the final phase, the supplier may also decide to switch to an alternative and more cost-effective policy. This alternative policy may be in the form of replacing a defective item with a substitutable product or offering discounts / rebates on new generation products. In this setup, the objective is to find a final order quantity and also a switching time which will minimize the total expected discounted cost. We study this problem under a general cost structure in a continuous-time framework where arrivals of defective items are given by a non-homogeneous Poisson process. We consider four formulations which differ by the nature of the switching time. These formulations are studied in detail and properties of the objective function are derived in each case. Using these properties, we provide exact algorithms for efficient numerical implementations. Numerical examples are provided illustrating the application of these algorithms. In these examples, we also compare the costs associated with these different formulations.

Keywords: End-of-life inventory control, martingales, optimization, service parts

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Authors: Somnath Bhattacharyya

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The mobile adsorbed surface charge on hydrophobic surfaces can modify the velocity slip condition as well as create a Marangoni stress at the interface. The functionalized hydrophobic walls of micro/nanopores, e.g., graphene nanochannels, may possess physio-sorbed ions. The lateral mobility of the physisorbed absorbed ions creates a friction force as well as an electric force, leading to a modification in the velocity slip condition at the hydrophobic surface. In addition, the non-uniform distribution of these surface ions creates a surface tension gradient, leading to a Marangoni stress. The impact of the mobile surface charge on streaming potential and electrochemical energy conversion efficiency in a pressure-driven flow of ionized liquid through the nanopore is addressed. Also, enhanced electro-osmotic flow through the hydrophobic nanochannel is also analyzed. The mean-filed electrokinetic model is modified to take into account the short-range non-electrostatic steric interactions and the long-range Coulomb correlations. The steric interaction is modeled by considering the ions as charged hard spheres of finite radius suspended in the electrolyte medium. The electrochemical potential is modified by including the volume exclusion effect, which is modeled based on the BMCSL equation of state. The electrostatic correlation is accounted for in the ionic self-energy. The extremal of the self-energy leads to a fourth-order Poisson equation for the electric field. The ion transport is governed by the modified Nernst-Planck equation, which includes the ion steric interactions; born force arises due to the spatial variation of the dielectric permittivity and the dielectrophoretic force on the hydrated ions. This ion transport equation is coupled with the Navier-Stokes equation describing the flow of the ionized fluid and the 3fourth-order Poisson equation for the electric field. We numerically solve the coupled set of nonlinear governing equations along with the prescribed boundary conditions by adopting a control volume approach over a staggered grid arrangement. In the staggered grid arrangements, velocity components are stored on the midpoint of the cell faces to which they are normal, whereas the remaining scalar variables are stored at the center of each cell. The convection and electromigration terms are discretized at each interface of the control volumes using the total variation diminishing (TVD) approach to capture the strong convection resulting from the highly enhanced fluid flow due to the modified model. In order to link pressure to the continuity equation, we adopt a pressure correction-based iterative SIMPLE (Semi-Implicit Method for Pressure-Linked Equations) algorithm, in which the discretized continuity equation is converted to a Poisson equation involving pressure correction terms. Our results show that the physisorbed ions on a hydrophobic surface create an enhanced slip velocity when streaming potential, which enhances the convection current. However, the electroosmotic flow attenuates due to the mobile surface ions.

Keywords: microfluidics, electroosmosis, streaming potential, electrostatic correlation, finite sized ions

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Authors: Elitaria Bestri Agustina Siregar, Boni Fasius Siregar

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The paper concerned with the transitivity in the reading passage of English textbook for Senior High School. The six types of process were occurred in the passages with percentage as follows: Material Process is 166 (42%), Relational Process is 155 (39%), Mental Process is 39 (10%), Verbal Process is 21 (5%), Existential Process is 13 (3), and Behavioral Process is 5 (1%). The material processes were found to be the most frequently used process type in the samples in our corpus (41,60 %). This indicates that the twenty reading passages are centrally concerned with action and events. Related to developmental psychology theory, this book fits the needs of students of this age.

Keywords: transitivity, types of processes, reading passages, developmental psycholoy

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Authors: Pavol Tanuska, Pavel Vazan, Michal Kebisek, Dominika Jurovata

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The paper gives the results of the project that was oriented on the usage of knowledge discoveries from production systems for needs of the hierarchical process control. One of the main project goals was the proposal of knowledge discovery model for process control. Specifics data mining methods and techniques was used for defined problems of the process control. The gained knowledge was used on the real production system, thus, the proposed solution has been verified. The paper documents how it is possible to apply new discovery knowledge to be used in the real hierarchical process control. There are specified the opportunities for application of the proposed knowledge discovery model for hierarchical process control.

Keywords: hierarchical process control, knowledge discovery from databases, neural network, process control

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Authors: Samaneh Rahimirshnani, Hossein Jafari

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In this paper, we consider fluid queueing processes fed by an isonormal Gaussian process. We study the correlation structure of the queueing process and the rate of convergence of the running supremum in the queueing process. The Malliavin calculus techniques are applied to obtain relations that show the workload process inherits the dependence properties of the input process. As examples, we consider two isonormal Gaussian processes, the sub-fractional Brownian motion (SFBM) and the fractional Brownian motion (FBM). For these examples, we obtain upper bounds for the covariance function of the queueing process and its rate of convergence to zero. We also discover that the rate of convergence of the queueing process is related to the structure of the covariance function of the input process.

Keywords: queue length process, Malliavin calculus, covariance function, fractional Brownian motion, sub-fractional Brownian motion

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Authors: Rohana Musa, Yuzman Yusoff, Chia Chieu Yin, Hanif Che Lah

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This paper presents the design and characterization of a low power Complementary Metal Oxide Semiconductor (CMOS) process sensor. The design is targeted for implementation using Silterra’s 180 nm CMOS process technology. The proposed process sensor employs a voltage threshold (V_th) extractor architecture for detection of variations in the fabrication process. The process sensor generates output voltages in the range of 401 mV (fast-fast corner) to 443 mV (slow-slow corner) at nominal condition. The power dissipation for this process sensor is 6.3 µW with a supply voltage of 1.8V with a silicon area of 190 µm X 60 µm. The preliminary result of this process sensor that was fabricated indicates a close resemblance between test and simulated results.

Keywords: CMOS process sensor, PVT sensor, threshold extractor circuit, Vth extractor circuit

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Authors: Fethia Zenak, Salima Benbernou, Linda Zaoui

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Recently, many companies are based on process development from scratch to achieve their business goals. The process development is not trivial and the main objective of enterprise managing processes is to decrease the software development time. Several concepts have been proposed in the field of business process-based reused development, known as BP Mashup. This concept consists of reusing existing business processes which have been modeled in order to respond to a particular goal. To meet user process requirements, our contribution is to mix parts of processes as 'processes fragments' components to build a new process (i.e. process mashup). The main idea of our paper is to offer graphical framework tool for both creating and running processes mashup. Allow users to perform a mixture of fragments, using a simple interface with set of graphical mixture operators based on a proposed formal model. A process mashup and mixture behavior are described within a new specification of a high-level language, language for process mashup (BPML).

Keywords: business process, mashup, fragments, bp mashup

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Authors: Atheer Al-Nuaimi, Harry Evdorides

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Every day many people die or get disabled or injured on roads around the world, which necessitates more specific treatments for transportation safety issues. International road assessment program (iRAP) model is one of the comprehensive road safety models which accounting for many factors that affect road safety in a cost-effective way in low and middle income countries. In iRAP model road safety has been divided into five star ratings from 1 star (the lowest level) to 5 star (the highest level). These star ratings are based on star rating score which is calculated by iRAP methodology depending on road attributes, traffic volumes and operating speeds. The outcome of iRAP methodology are the treatments that can be used to improve road safety and reduce fatalities and serious injuries (FSI) numbers. These countermeasures can be used separately as a single countermeasure or mix as multiple countermeasures for a location. There is general agreement that the adequacy of a countermeasure is liable to consistent losses when it is utilized as a part of mix with different countermeasures. That is, accident diminishment appraisals of individual countermeasures cannot be easily added together. The iRAP model philosophy makes utilization of a multiple countermeasure adjustment factors to predict diminishments in the effectiveness of road safety countermeasures when more than one countermeasure is chosen. A multiple countermeasure correction factors are figured for every 100-meter segment and for every accident type. However, restrictions of this methodology incorporate a presumable over-estimation in the predicted crash reduction. This study aims to adjust this correction factor by developing new models to calculate the effect of using multiple countermeasures on the number of fatalities for a location or an entire road. Regression models have been used to establish relationships between crash frequencies and the factors that affect their rates. Multiple linear regression, negative binomial regression, and Poisson regression techniques were used to develop models that can address the effectiveness of using multiple countermeasures. Analyses are conducted using The R Project for Statistical Computing showed that a model developed by negative binomial regression technique could give more reliable results of the predicted number of fatalities after the implementation of road safety multiple countermeasures than the results from iRAP model. The results also showed that the negative binomial regression approach gives more precise results in comparison with multiple linear and Poisson regression techniques because of the overdispersion and standard error issues.

Keywords: international road assessment program, negative binomial, road multiple countermeasures, road safety

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Authors: Princes Ann E. Prieto, Denise F. Alpuerto, John Rafael C. Unlayao, Neil Concibido, Monet Concepcion Maguyon-Detras

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Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) has been used in the virtual Process Hazard Analysis (PHA) of the Acetone production process through the dehydrogenation of isopropyl alcohol, for which very limited process risk assessment has been published. In this study, the potential failure modes, effects, and possible causes of selected major equipment in the process were identified. During the virtual FMEA mock sessions, the risks in the process were evaluated and recommendations to reduce and/or mitigate the process risks were formulated. The risk was estimated using the calculated risk priority number (RPN) and was classified into four (4) levels according to their effects on acetone production. Results of this study were also used to rank the criticality of equipment in the process based on the calculated criticality rating (CR). Bow tie diagrams were also created for the critical hazard scenarios identified in the study.

Keywords: chemical process safety, failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA), process hazard analysis (PHA), process safety management (PSM)

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Authors: Heejung Lee

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In a highly competitive environment, it becomes more important to shorten the whole business process while delivering or even enhancing the business value to the customers and suppliers. Although the workflow management systems receive much attention for its capacity to practically support the business process enactment, the effective workflow modeling method remain still challenging and the high degree of process complexity makes it more difficult to gain the short lead time. This paper presents a workflow structuring method in a holistic way that can reduce the process complexity using activity-needs and formal concept analysis, which eventually enhances the key performance such as quality, delivery, and cost in business process.

Keywords: workflow management, re-engineering, formal concept analysis, business process

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Authors: Jiahao Tian, Michael D. Porter

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Law enforcement agencies are tasked with crime prevention and crime reduction under limited resources. Having an accurate temporal estimate of the crime rate would be valuable to achieve such a goal. However, estimation is usually complicated by the interval-censored nature of crime data. We cast the problem of intensity estimation as a Poisson regression using an EM algorithm to estimate the parameters. Two special penalties are added that provide smoothness over the time of day and day of the week. This approach presented here provides accurate intensity estimates and can also uncover day-of-week clusters that share the same intensity patterns. Anticipating where and when crimes might occur is a key element to successful policing strategies. However, this task is complicated by the presence of interval-censored data. The censored data refers to the type of data that the event time is only known to lie within an interval instead of being observed exactly. This type of data is prevailing in the field of criminology because of the absence of victims for certain types of crime. Despite its importance, the research in temporal analysis of crime has lagged behind the spatial component. Inspired by the success of solving crime-related problems with a statistical approach, we propose a statistical model for the temporal intensity estimation of crime with censored data. The model is built on Poisson regression and has special penalty terms added to the likelihood. An EM algorithm was derived to obtain maximum likelihood estimates, and the resulting model shows superior performance to the competing model. Our research is in line with the smart policing initiative (SPI) proposed by the Bureau Justice of Assistance (BJA) as an effort to support law enforcement agencies in building evidence-based, data-driven law enforcement tactics. The goal is to identify strategic approaches that are effective in crime prevention and reduction. In our case, we allow agencies to deploy their resources for a relatively short period of time to achieve the maximum level of crime reduction. By analyzing a particular area within cities where data are available, our proposed approach could not only provide an accurate estimate of intensities for the time unit considered but a time-variation crime incidence pattern. Both will be helpful in the allocation of limited resources by either improving the existing patrol plan with the understanding of the discovery of the day of week cluster or supporting extra resources available.

Keywords: cluster detection, EM algorithm, interval censoring, intensity estimation

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Authors: Ljubica Milanović Glavan, Vesna Bosilj Vukšić, Dalia Suša

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In order to gain a competitive advantage, many companies are focusing on reorganization of their business processes and implementing process-based management. In this context, assessing process performance is essential because it enables individuals and groups to assess where they stand in comparison to their competitors. In this paper, it is argued that process performance measurement is a necessity for a modern process-oriented company and it should be supported by a holistic process performance measurement system. It seems very unlikely that a universal set of performance indicators can be applied successfully to all business processes. Thus, performance indicators must be process-specific and have to be derived from both the strategic enterprise-wide goals and the process goals. Based on the extensive literature review and interviews conducted in Croatian company a conceptual framework for process performance measurement system was developed. The main objective of such system is to help process managers by providing comprehensive and timely information on the performance of business processes. This information can be used to communicate goals and current performance of a business process directly to the process team, to improve resource allocation and process output regarding quantity and quality, to give early warning signals, to make a diagnosis of the weaknesses of a business process, to decide whether corrective actions are needed and to assess the impact of actions taken.

Keywords: Croatia, key performance indicators, performance measurement, process performance

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Authors: Carlos Teodoro, Oscar Bautista

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In this work, we analyze theoretically the mass transport in a time-periodic electroosmotic flow through a parallel flat plate microchannel under different periodic functions of the applied external electric field. The microchannel connects two reservoirs having different constant concentrations of an electro-neutral solute, and the zeta potential of the microchannel walls are assumed to be uniform. The governing equations that allow determining the mass transport in the microchannel are given by the Poisson-Boltzmann equation, the modified Navier-Stokes equations, where the Debye-Hückel approximation is considered (the zeta potential is less than 25 mV), and the species conservation. These equations are nondimensionalized and four dimensionless parameters appear which control the mass transport phenomenon. In this sense, these parameters are an angular Reynolds, the Schmidt and the Péclet numbers, and an electrokinetic parameter representing the ratio of the half-height of the microchannel to the Debye length. To solve the mathematical model, first, the electric potential is determined from the Poisson-Boltzmann equation, which allows determining the electric force for various periodic functions of the external electric field expressed as Fourier series. In particular, three different excitation wave forms of the external electric field are assumed, a) sawteeth, b) step, and c) a periodic irregular functions. The periodic electric forces are substituted in the modified Navier-Stokes equations, and the hydrodynamic field is derived for each case of the electric force. From the obtained velocity fields, the species conservation equation is solved and the concentration fields are found. Numerical calculations were done by considering several binary systems where two dilute species are transported in the presence of a carrier. It is observed that there are different angular frequencies of the imposed external electric signal where the total mass transport of each species is the same, independently of the molecular diffusion coefficient. These frequencies are called crossover frequencies and are obtained graphically at the intersection when the total mass transport is plotted against the imposed frequency. The crossover frequencies are different depending on the Schmidt number, the electrokinetic parameter, the angular Reynolds number, and on the type of signal of the external electric field. It is demonstrated that the mass transport through the microchannel is strongly dependent on the modulation frequency of the applied particular alternating electric field. Possible extensions of the analysis to more complicated pulsation profiles are also outlined.

Keywords: electroosmotic flow, mass transport, oscillatory flow, species separation

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Authors: N. Reppas, Y. L. Gui, B. Wetenhall, C. T. Davie, J. Ma

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A theoretical constitutive model describing the stress-strain behavior of rock subjected to different confining pressures is presented. A bounding surface plastic model with hardening effects is proposed which includes the effect of temperature drop. The bounding surface is based on a mapping rule and the temperature effect on rock is controlled by Poisson’s ratio. Validation of the results against available experimental data is also presented. The relation of deviatoric stress and axial strain is illustrated at different temperatures to analyze the effect of temperature decrease in terms of stiffness of the material.

Keywords: bounding surface, cooling of rock, plasticity model, rock deformation, elasto-plastic behavior

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Authors: Golnaz Shahtahmassebi, Jose Maria Sarabia

Abstract:

In this talk, we introduce a new class of conjugate prior distributions obtained from conditional specification methodology. We illustrate the application of such distribution in Bayesian change point detection in Poisson processes. We obtain the posterior distribution of model parameters using a general bivariate distribution with gamma conditionals. Simulation from the posterior is readily implemented using a Gibbs sampling algorithm. The Gibbs sampling is implemented even when using conditional densities that are incompatible or only compatible with an improper joint density. The application of such methods will be demonstrated using examples of simulated and real data.

Keywords: change point, bayesian inference, Gibbs sampler, conditional specification, gamma conditional distributions

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Authors: Safeer Hussain Khan

Abstract:

In this paper, we prove a strong convergence result using a recently introduced iterative process with contractive-like operators. This improves and generalizes corresponding results in the literature in two ways: the iterative process is faster, operators are more general. In the end, we indicate that the results can also be proved with the iterative process with error terms.

Keywords: contractive-like operator, iterative process, fixed point, strong convergence

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Authors: Vaida Zemlickiene

Abstract:

Scientists around the world and practitioners are working to identify the factors that influence the results of technology commercialization and to propose the ideal model for the technology commercialization process. In other words, all stakeholders of technology commercialization seek to find a formula or set of rules to succeed in commercializing technologies in order to avoid unproductive investments. In this article, the process of commercialization technology is understood as the process of transforming inventions into marketable products, services, and processes, or the path from the idea of using an invention to a product that incorporates process from 1 to 9 technology readiness level (TRL). There are many publications in the field of management literature, which are aimed at managing the commercialization process. However, there is an apparent lack of research for communication in decision-making in the process of technology commercialization. Works were done in the past, and the last decade's global research analysis led to the unambiguous conclusion that the methodological framework is not mature enough to be of practical use in business. The process of technology commercialization and the decisions made in the process should be explored in-depth. An archival analysis is performed to find insights into decision-making communication in the process of technologies commercialization, to find out the content of technology commercialization process: decision-making stages and participants, to analyze the internal factors of technology commercialization, to perform their critical analysis, to analyze the concept of successful/unsuccessful technology commercialization.

Keywords: the process of technology commercialization, communication in decision-making process, the content of technology commercialization process, successful/unsuccessful technology commercialization

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