Search results for: meteorological events

Authors: Kye Gilder, Kevin Shan, Amy Halseth, Steve Smith

Abstract:

This study assessed the effect of prolonged-release naltrexone 32 mg/bupropion 360 mg (NB) on cardiovascular (CV) events in overweight/obese participants at elevated CV risk. Participants must lose ≥2% body weight at 16 wks, without a sustained increase in blood pressure, to continue drug. Only serious adverse events (SAE) and adverse events leading to discontinuation of study drug (AELDSD) were collected. The study was terminated early after second interim analysis with 50% of all CV events. Data on CV endpoints has been published. Current analyses focused on AEs in participants on antidepressants at baseline, as these individuals were excluded from Phase 3 trials. Intent-to-treat (ITT) population (placebo [PBO] N=4450, NB N=4455) was 54.5% female, 83.5% white, mean age of 61 yrs, mean BMI 37.3 kg/m2, 22.8% with a history of depression, 23.1% on antidepressants, including 15.4% on an SSRI. SAEs in participants receiving antidepressants was similar between NB (10.7%) and PBO (9.9%) and also similar to overall population (9.5% NB, 8.1% PBO). SAEs in those on SSRIs were similar, 10.1% NB and PBO 9.4%. For those on SSRIs or other antidepressants, AELDSDs were similar to overall population and were primarily GI disorders. Obesity increases the risk of developing depression. For participants taking NB and antidepressants, including SSRIs, there is a similar AE profile as the overall population and data revealed no evidence of an additional health risk with combined use.

Keywords: antidepressant, Contrave, Mysimba, obesity, pharmacotherapy

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Authors: Isaac Mugume, Charles Basalirwa, Daniel Waiswa, Mary Nsabagwa, Triphonia Jacob Ngailo, Joachim Reuder, Sch¨attler Ulrich, Musa Semujju

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The Numerical weather prediction (NWP) models are considered powerful tools for guiding quantitative rainfall prediction. A couple of NWP models exist and are used at many operational weather prediction centers. This study considers two models namely the Consortium for Small–scale Modeling (COSMO) model and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. It compares the models’ ability to predict rainfall over Uganda for the period 21st April 2013 to 10th May 2013 using the root mean square (RMSE) and the mean error (ME). In comparing the performance of the models, this study assesses their ability to predict light rainfall events and extreme rainfall events. All the experiments used the default parameterization configurations and with same horizontal resolution (7 Km). The results show that COSMO model had a tendency of largely predicting no rain which explained its under–prediction. The COSMO model (RMSE: 14.16; ME: -5.91) presented a significantly (p = 0.014) higher magnitude of error compared to the WRF model (RMSE: 11.86; ME: -1.09). However the COSMO model (RMSE: 3.85; ME: 1.39) performed significantly (p = 0.003) better than the WRF model (RMSE: 8.14; ME: 5.30) in simulating light rainfall events. All the models under–predicted extreme rainfall events with the COSMO model (RMSE: 43.63; ME: -39.58) presenting significantly higher error magnitudes than the WRF model (RMSE: 35.14; ME: -26.95). This study recommends additional diagnosis of the models’ treatment of deep convection over the tropics.

Keywords: comparative performance, the COSMO model, the WRF model, light rainfall events, extreme rainfall events

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Authors: Orpita U. Laz, Ataur Rahman

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Climate change will affect various aspects of hydrological cycle such as rainfall. A change in rainfall will affect flood magnitude and frequency in future which will affect the design and operation of hydraulic structures. In this paper, trends in sub-hourly, sub-daily, and daily extreme rainfall events from 18 rainfall stations located in Tasmania, Australia are examined. Two non-parametric tests (Mann-Kendall and Spearman’s Rho) are applied to detect trends at 10%, 5%, and 1% significance levels. Sub-hourly (6, 12, 18, and 30 minutes) annual maximum rainfall events have been found to experience statistically significant upward trends at 10 % level of significance. However, sub-daily durations (1 hour, 3 and 12 hours) exhibit decreasing trends and no trends exists for longer duration rainfall events (e.g. 24 and 72 hours). Some of the durations (e.g. 6 minutes and 6 hours) show similar results (with upward trends) for both the tests. For 12, 18, 60 minutes and 3 hours durations both the tests show similar downward trends. This finding has important implication for Tasmania in the design of urban infrastructure where shorter duration rainfall events are more relevant for smaller urban catchments such as parking lots, roof catchments and smaller sub-divisions.

Keywords: climate change, design rainfall, Mann-Kendall test, trends, Spearman’s Rho, Tasmania

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Authors: George Lin

Abstract:

This study examines a practice in which Chinese municipal governments actively pursue momentary and spectacular urbanism through the hosting of mega-events as an instrument to reproduce urban space for the enhancement of place competitiveness and advancement of political career. Practicing event-driven spectacular urbanism is found to have a short-term impact upon the economy and an effect upon the career advancement of the party secretary more than the mayor. Hosting mega-events has been used as a means to create “a harmonious society” and unified social space whereby grievance and discontents are grossed over, ignored, excluded and marginalized. Geographically, a new urban space has been created for the central city to reassert/consolidate its leading competitive position in the regional and national economy at the expense of the disadvantaged and marginalized. Findings of this research call for a critical re-evaluation of the sophisticated state-space inter-relations in the ongoing processes of planetary urbanization and global urban revolution in which China has taken an important part.

Keywords: Chinese cities, mega events, urbanism, urbanization

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Authors: Eunjoo Lee

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Background: As the number of surgeries increases, the incidence of adverse events is likely to become more prevalent. Patients who are somewhat knowledgeable about surgery-related adverse events are more likely to engage in safety initiatives to prevent them. Objectives: To evaluate the impact of a smartphone application developed during the study to enhance patients’ knowledge of surgery-related adverse events during hospitalization. Design: Non-randomized, one group, measured pre- and post-intervention. Participants: Thirty-six hospitalized patients admitted to the orthopedics unit of a general hospital in South Korea. Methods. First, a smartphone application to enhance patients’ knowledge of surgery-related adverse events was developed through an iterative process, which included a literature review, expert consultation, and pilot testing. The application was installed on participants’ smartphones, and research assistants taught the participants to use it. Twenty-five true/false questions were used to assess patients’ knowledge of preoperative precautions (eight items), surgical site infection (five items), Foley catheter management (four items), drainage management (four items), and anesthesia-related complications (four items). Results: Overall, the percentage of correct answers increased significantly, from 57.02% to 73.82%, although answers related to a few specific topics did not increase that much. Although the patients’ understanding of drainage management and the Foley catheter did increase substantially after they used the smartphone application, it was still relatively low. Conclusions: The smartphone application developed during this study enhanced the patients’ knowledge of surgery-related adverse events during hospitalization. However, nurses must make an additional effort to help patients to understand certain topics, including drainage and Foley catheter management. Relevance to clinical practice: Insufficient patient knowledge increases the risk of adverse events during hospitalization. Nurses should take active steps to enhance patients’ knowledge of a range of safety issues during hospitalization, in order to decrease the number of surgery-related adverse events.

Keywords: patient education, patient participation, patient safety, smartphone application, surgical errors

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Authors: Bibhuti Bhusan Sahoo, Ramakar Jha

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Mapping of the extreme events (droughts) is one of the adaptation strategies to consequences of increasing climatic inconsistency and climate alterations. There is no operational practice to forecast the drought. One of the suggestions is to update mapping of drought prone areas for developmental planning. Drought indices play a significant role in drought mitigation. Many scientists have worked on different statistical analysis in drought and other climatological hazards. Many researchers have studied droughts individually for different sub-divisions or for India. Very few workers have studied district wise probabilities over large scale. In the present study, district wise drought probabilities over KBK (Kalahandi-Balangir-Koraput) districts of Odisha, India, Which are seriously prone to droughts, has been established using Hydrological drought index and Meteorological drought index along with the remote sensing drought indices to develop a multidirectional approach in the field of drought mitigation. Mapping for moderate and severe drought probabilities for KBK districts has been done and regions belonging different class intervals of probabilities of drought have been demarcated. Such type of information would be a good tool for planning purposes, for input in modelling and better promising results can be achieved.

Keywords: drought indices, KBK districts, proposed drought severity index, SPI

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Authors: Lei Li, Ping Yin, Haneen Khreis

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Stroke is the second leading cause of death and a third leading cause of death and disability worldwide in 2019. Given the significant role of environmental factors in stroke development and progression, it is essential to investigate the effect of air pollution on stroke occurrence while considering the modifying effects of meteorological variables. This study aimed to evaluate the association between short-term exposure to air pollution and the incidence of stroke subtypes in Shenzhen, China, and to explore the potential interactions of meteorological factors with air pollutants. The study analyzed data from January 1, 2006, to December 31, 2014, including 88,214 cases of ischemic stroke and 30,433 cases of hemorrhagic stroke among residents of Shenzhen. Using a time-stratified case–crossover design with conditional quasi-Poisson regression, the study estimated the percentage changes in stroke morbidity associated with short-term exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), particulate matter less than 10 mm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10), carbon monoxide (CO), and ozone (O₃). A five-day moving average of air pollution was applied to capture the cumulative effects of air pollution. The estimates were further stratified by sex, age, education level, and season. The additive and multiplicative interaction between air pollutants and meteorologic variables were assessed by the relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI) and adding the interactive term into the main model, respectively. The study found that NO₂ was positively associated with ischemic stroke occurrence throughout the year and in the cold season (November through April), with a stronger effect observed among men. Each 10 μg/m³ increment in the five-day moving average of NO₂ was associated with a 2.38% (95% confidence interval was 1.36% to 3.41%) increase in the risk of ischemic stroke over the whole year and a 3.36% (2.04% to 4.69%) increase in the cold season. The harmful effect of CO on ischemic stroke was observed only in the cold season, with each 1 mg/m³ increment in the five-day moving average of CO increasing the risk by 12.34% (3.85% to 21.51%). There was no statistically significant additive interaction between individual air pollutants and temperature or relative humidity, as demonstrated by the RERI. The interaction term in the model showed a multiplicative antagonistic effect between NO₂ and temperature (p-value=0.0268). For hemorrhagic stroke, no evidence of the effects of any individual air pollutants was found in the whole population. However, the RERI indicated a statistically additive and multiplicative interaction of temperature on the effects of PM10 and O₃ on hemorrhagic stroke onset. Therefore, the insignificant conclusion should be interpreted with caution. The study suggests that environmental NO₂ and CO might increase the morbidity of ischemic stroke, particularly during the cold season. These findings could help inform policy decisions aimed at reducing air pollution levels to prevent stroke and other health conditions. Additionally, the study provides valuable insights into the interaction between air pollution and meteorological variables, which underscores the need for further research into the complex relationship between environmental factors and health.

Keywords: air pollution, meteorological variables, interactive effect, seasonal pattern, stroke

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Authors: Misbah Shahzadi

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The present study was conducted to identify the emotional and behavioral disturbances among the News Reporters covering Traumatic events. In the present study, a sample of 50 News Reporters belonging to the national and the local news agencies were selected from Rawalpindi and Islamabad who had covered any traumatic event in the past one year. Rotter’s Incomplete Sentence Blank (RISB) and Impact of Event Scale interpretations were used to assess a variety of emotional and behavioral patterns of News Reporters. Results showed that some of the frequent emotional and behavioral reactions exhibited by individuals like withdrawal, anxiety\depression, aggression, hyperarousal and avoidance behavior whereas gender-based comparisons indicated that there is no significant gender difference in the News Reporters in manifestations of behavioral and emotional disturbances. It is concluded that significant negative emotional and behavioral reactions are exhibited by the News Reporters who cover traumatic events. The study identifies the negative emotional and behavioral reactions/disturbances after trauma, which can be helpful for identifying problematic areas for counseling and therapeutic interventions for these News Reporters.

Keywords: behavioural disturbance, emotional disturbance, news reporters, traumatic events

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Authors: Elison Eduardo Jardim Bierhals, Claudineia Brazil, Deivid Pires, Rafael Haag, Elton Gimenez Rossini

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The objective of this work is to evaluate the results of solar radiation projections between 2006 and 2013 for the state of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. The projections are provided by the General Circulation Models (MCGs) belonging to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Phase 5 (CMIP5). In all, the results of the simulation of six models are evaluated, compared to monthly data, measured by a network of thirteen meteorological stations of the National Meteorological Institute (INMET). The performance of the models is evaluated by the Nash coefficient and the Bias. The results are presented in the form of tables, graphs and spatialization maps. The ACCESS1-0 RCP 4.5 model presented the best results for the solar radiation simulations, for the most optimistic scenario, in much of the state. The efficiency coefficients (CEF) were between 0.95 and 0.98. In the most pessimistic scenario, HADGen2-AO RCP 8.5 had the best accuracy among the analyzed models, presenting coefficients of efficiency between 0.94 and 0.98. From this validation, solar radiation projection maps were elaborated, indicating a seasonal increase of this climatic variable in some regions of the Brazilian territory, mainly in the spring.

Keywords: climate change, projections, solar radiation, validation

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Authors: Renalda El Samra, Elie Bou-Zeid, Hamza Kunhu Bangalath, Georgiy Stenchikov, Mutasem El Fadel

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The regional-scale impact of climate change over complex terrain was examined through high-resolution dynamic downscaling conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with initial and boundary conditions from a High-Resolution Atmospheric Model (HiRAM). The analysis was conducted over the eastern Mediterranean, with a focus on the country of Lebanon, which is characterized by a challenging complex topography that magnifies the effect of orographic precipitation. Four year-long WRF simulations, selected based on HiRAM time series, were performed to generate future climate projections of extreme temperature and precipitation over the study area under the conditions of the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5. One past WRF simulation year, 2008, was selected as a baseline to capture dry extremes of the system. The results indicate that the study area might be exposed to a temperature increase between 1.0 and 3ºC in summer mean values by 2050, in comparison to 2008. For extreme years, the decrease in average annual precipitation may exceed 50% at certain locations in comparison to 2008.

Keywords: HiRAM, regional climate modeling, WRF, Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)

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Authors: Onuchukwu Chika Christian, Chukwude Augustine Ejike

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We carried out a statistical analyse of microglitches events on a sample of radio pulsars. The distribution of microglitch events in frequency (ν) and first frequency derivatives ν˙ indicates that the size of a microglitch and sign combinations of events in ν and ν˙ are purely randomized. Assuming that the probability of a given size of a microglitch event occurring scales inversely as the absolute size of the event in both ν and ν˙, we constructed a cumulative distribution function (CDF) for the absolute sizes of microglitches. In most of the pulsars, the theoretical CDF matched the observed values. This is an indication that microglitches in pulsar may be interpreted as an avalanche process in which angular momentum is transferred erratically from the flywheel-like superfliud interior to the slowly decelerating solid crust. Analysis of the waiting time indicates that it is purely Poisson distributed with mean microglitch rate <γ> ∼ 0.98year^−1 for all the pulsars in our sample and <γ> / <∆T> ∼ 1. Correlation analysis, showed that the relative absolute size of microglitch event strongly with the rotation period of the pulsar with correlation coefficient r ∼ 0.7 and r ∼ 0.5 respectively for events in ν and ν˙. The mean glitch rate and number of microglitches (Ng) showed some dependence on spin down rate (r ∼ −0.6) and the characteristic age of the pulsar (τ) with (r ∼ −0.4/− 0.5).

Keywords: method-data analysis, star, neutron-pulsar, general

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Authors: Jiri Barta

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At the present time, awareness, education, computer simulation and information systems protection are very serious and relevant topics. The article deals with perspectives and possibilities of implementation of emergence or natural hazard threats into the system which is developed for communication among members of crisis management staffs. The Czech Hydro-Meteorological Institute with its System of Integrated Warning Service resents the largest usable base of information. National information systems are connected to foreign systems, especially to flooding emergency systems of neighboring countries, systems of European Union and international organizations where the Czech Republic is a member. Use of outputs of particular information systems and computer simulations on a single communication interface of information system for communication among members of crisis management staff and setting the site interoperability in the net will lead to time savings in decision-making processes in solving extraordinary events and crisis situations. Faster managing of an extraordinary event or a crisis situation will bring positive effects and minimize the impact of negative effects on the environment.

Keywords: computer simulation, communication, continuity, critical infrastructure, information systems, safety

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Authors: Kinneret Segal

Abstract:

The work of a midwife is emotionally challenging, both positively and negatively. Midwives share moments of joy when a baby is welcomed into the world, and also attend difficult events of loss and trauma. The relationship that develops with the maternity is the essence of the midwife's care, and it is a fundamental source of motivation and professional satisfaction. This close relationship with the maternity may be used as a double-edged sword in cases of exposure to traumatic events at birth. Birth problems, exposure to emergencies and traumatic events, and loss can affect the professional quality of life and the Compassion satisfaction of the midwife. It seems that the issue of traumatic experiences in the work of midwives, has not been sufficiently explored. The present study examined the associations between exposure to traumatic events, personal resilience and post-traumatic symptoms, professional quality of life and organizational commitment among midwifery nurses in Israeli hospitals. 131 midwives from three hospitals in the country's center in Israel participated in this study. The data were collected during 2021 using a self-report questionnaire that examined sociodemographic characteristics, the degree of exposure to traumatic events in the delivery room, personal resilience, post-traumatic symptoms, professional quality of life, and organizational commitment. The three most difficult traumatic events for the midwives were death or fear of death of a newborn, death or fear of the death of a mother and a quiet birth. The higher the frequency of exposure to traumatic events, the more numerous and intense the onset of post-trauma symptoms. The more numerous and powerful the post-trauma symptoms, the higher the level of professional burnout and/or compassion fatigue, and the lower the level of compassion satisfaction. High levels of compassion satisfaction and/or low professional burnout were expressed in a heightened sense of organizational commitment. Personal resilience, country of birth, traumatic symptoms and organizational commitment, predicted satisfaction from compassion. Midwives are exposed to traumatic events associated with dissatisfaction and impairment of the professional quality of life that accompanies burnout and compassion fatigue. Exposure to traumatic events leads to the appearance of traumatic symptoms, a decrease in organizational commitment, and psychological and mental well-being. The issue needs to be addressed by implementing training programs, organizational support, and policies to improving well-being and quality of care among midwives.

Keywords: traumatic experirnces, midwives, quality of life, burnout, organizational commitment, personal resilience

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Authors: Yu Bingqing

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Research on the meteorological observation data of conventional meteorological stations in Jiangnan area from 2001 to 2020 and digital elevation DEM, the "golden section" comfort index calculation method was used to refine the spatial estimation of climate comfort in Jiangnan area under undulating terrain on the Gis platform, and its spatiotemporal distribution characteristics in the region were analyzed. The results can provide reference for the development and utilization of climate resources in Jiangnan area.The results show that: ① there is a significant spatial difference between winter and summer climate comfort from low latitude to high latitude. ②There is a significant trend of decreasing climate comfort from low altitude to high altitude in winter, but the opposite is true in summer. ③There is a trend of decreasing climate comfort from offshore to inland in winter, but the difference is not significant in summer. The climate comfort level in the natural lake area is higher in summer than in the surrounding areas, but not in winter. ⑤ In winter and summer, altitude has the greatest influence on the difference in comfort level.

Keywords: vernacular courtyards, thermal environment, depth-to-height ratio, climate adaptability，Southeast China

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Authors: Tisciane Perpetuo e Oliveira, Dante Inga Narvaez, Marcelo Gradella Villalva

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Installations of solar photovoltaic systems have increased considerably in the last decade. Therefore, it has been noticed that monitoring of meteorological data (solar irradiance, air temperature, wind velocity, etc.) is important to predict the potential of a given geographical area in solar energy production. In this sense, the present work compares two computational tools that are capable of estimating the energy generation of a photovoltaic system through correlation analyzes of solar radiation data: PVsyst software and an algorithm based on the PVlib package implemented in MATLAB. In order to achieve the objective, it was necessary to obtain solar radiation data (measured and from a solarimetric database), analyze the decomposition of global solar irradiance in direct normal and horizontal diffuse components, as well as analyze the modeling of the devices of a photovoltaic system (solar modules and inverters) for energy production calculations. Simulated results were compared with experimental data in order to evaluate the performance of the studied methods. Errors in estimation of energy production were less than 30% for the MATLAB algorithm and less than 20% for the PVsyst software.

Keywords: energy production, meteorological data, irradiance decomposition, solar photovoltaic system

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Authors: Ojetunde Ojewola, Mark Morgan, Sonja Wilhelm-Stanis

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State parks and historic sites are vulnerable to extreme weather events which can affect visitor experiences, management priorities, and legislative requests for disaster relief funds. Recently, global attention has been focused on the perceptions of global warming and how the presence of extreme weather events might impact protected areas, both now and in the future. The effects of climate change are not equally distributed across the United States, leading to varied perceptions based on personal experience with extreme weather events. This study describes employee perceptions of vulnerability and resilience in Missouri State Parks & Historic Sites due to extreme weather events that occur across the state but grouped according to physiographic provinces. Using a four-point rating scale, perceptions of vulnerability and resilience were divided into high and low sub-groups, thus allowing researchers to construct a two by two typology of employee responses. Subsequently, this data was used to develop a three-point continuum of environmental concern (higher scores meant more concern). Employee scores were then compared against a statewide assessment which combined social, economic, infrastructural and environmental indicators of vulnerability and resilience. State park employees thought the system was less vulnerable and more resilient to climate change than data found in statewide assessment This result was also consistent in three out of five physiographic regions across Missouri. Implications suggest that Missouri state park should develop a climate change adaptation strategy for emergency preparedness.

Keywords: extreme weather events, resilience, state parks, vulnerability

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Authors: Khadeeja Munawar, Shamsul Haque

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The claim that traumatic events influence the recalled memories and mental health has received mixed empirical support. This study examines the memories of a sample drawn from Pakistan, a country that has witnessed many life-changing socio-political events, wars, and natural disasters in 72 years of its history. A sample of 210 senior citizens (Mage = 64.35, SD = 6.33) was recruited from Pakistan. The aim was to investigate if participants retrieved more memories related to past traumatic events using a word-cueing technique. Each participant reported ten memories to ten neutral cue words. The results revealed that past traumatic events were not adversely affecting the memories and mental health of participants. When memories were plotted with respect to the ages at which the events happened, a pronounced bump at 11-20 years of age was seen. Memories within as well as outside of the bump were mostly positive. The multilevel logistic regression modelling showed that the memories recalled were personally important and played a role in enhancing resilience. The findings revealed that despite facing an array of ethnic, religious, political, economic, and social conflicts, the participants were resilient, recalled predominantly positive memories, and had intact mental health. The findings have clinical implications in Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT). The patients can be made aware of their negative emotions, troublesome/traumatic memories, and the distorted thinking patterns and their memories can be restructured. The findings can also be used to teach Memory Specificity Training (MEST) by psycho-educating the patients around changes in memory functioning and enhancing the recall of memories, which are more specific, vivid, and filled with sensory details.

Keywords: cognitive behavioral therapy, memories, mental health, resilience, trauma

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Authors: Ugur Cihat Sakarya

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This research focuses on psychedelic trance music events in Turkey in the context of altered states of consciousness (ASC). The fieldwork that was conducted from 2018 to 2019 is the main source of the research. Participant observation method was followed in 15 selected events. To direct the musical experiences of participants, performances were also presented as a Dj. Ten of these events are open-air festivals. Five of them are indoor parties. The observations made during fieldwork and suitable answers for inference from the interviews with participants, artists, DJs, and volunteers were selected, compiled, and presented. In the result, findings showed that these activities are perceived as temporary autonomous areas by the participants both in time and space and that these activities are suitable areas for expressing themselves as a group (psyfamily) against mainstream culture. It has been observed that the elements that complement the altered states of consciousness in these events are music, visual arts, drug use, and desire to experience spiritual experiences. It is thought that this first academic study -about this topic in Turkey- will open a door for future researches.

Keywords: consciousness, psychedelic, psytrance, rave, Turkey

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Authors: O. Benabdeljelil, A. Karioun, S. Amami, R. Rouger, M. Hamidine

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A model for preventing the risks related to climate conditions in the agricultural sector is presented. It will determine the yearly optimum premium to be paid by a producer in order to reach his required turnover. The model is based on both climatic stability and 'soft' responses of usually grown species to average climate variations at the same place and inside a safety ball which can be determined from past meteorological data. This allows the use of linear regression expression for dependence of production result in terms of driving meteorological parameters, the main ones of which are daily average sunlight, rainfall and temperature. By simple best parameter fit from the expert table drawn with professionals, optimal representation of yearly production is determined from records of previous years, and yearly payback is evaluated from minimum yearly produced turnover. The model also requires accurate pricing of commodity at N+1. Therefore, a pricing model is developed using 3 state variables, namely the spot price, the difference between the mean-term and the long-term forward price, and the long-term structure of the model. The use of historical data enables to calibrate the parameters of state variables, and allows the pricing of commodity. Application to beet sugar underlines pricer precision. Indeed, the percentage of accuracy between computed result and real world is 99,5%. Optimal premium is then deduced and gives the producer a useful bound for negotiating an offer by insurance companies to effectively protect its harvest. The application to beet production in French Oise department illustrates the reliability of present model with as low as 6% difference between predicted and real data. The model can be adapted to almost any agricultural field by changing state parameters and calibrating their associated coefficients.

Keywords: agriculture, production model, optimal price, meteorological factors, 3-factor model, parameter calibration, forward price

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Authors: Hiba Hamdi, Thomas Corpetti, Laure Roupioz, Xavier Briottet

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Air temperatures are generally higher in cities than in their rural surroundings. The overheating of cities is a direct consequence of increasing urbanization, characterized by the artificial filling of soils, the release of anthropogenic heat, and the complexity of urban geometry. This phenomenon, referred to as urban heat island (UHI), is more prevalent during heat waves, which have increased in frequency and intensity in recent years. In the context of global warming and urban population growth, helping urban planners implement UHI mitigation and adaptation strategies is critical. In practice, the study of UHI requires air temperature information at the street canyon level, which is difficult to obtain. Many urban air temperature simulation models have been proposed (mostly based on physics or statistics), all of which require a variety of input parameters related to urban morphology, land use, material properties, or meteorological conditions. In this paper, we build and evaluate a neural network model based on Urban Weather Generator (UWG) model simulations and data from meteorological stations that simulate air temperature over Toulouse, France, on days favourable to UHI.

Keywords: air temperature, neural network model, urban heat island, urban weather generator

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Authors: Kinneret Segal

Abstract:

Background: The work of a midwife is emotionally challenging, both positively and negatively. Midwives share moments of joy when a baby is welcomed into the world and also attend difficult events of loss and trauma. The relationship that develops with the maternity is the essence of the midwife's care, and it is a fundamental source of motivation and professional satisfaction. This close relationship with the maternity may be used as a double-edged sword in cases of exposure to traumatic events at birth. Birth problems, exposure to emergencies and traumatic events, and loss can affect the professional quality of life and the Compassion satisfaction of the midwife. It seems that the issue of traumatic experiences in the work of midwives has not been sufficiently explored. Aim: The present study examined the associations between exposure to traumatic events, personal resilience and post-traumatic symptoms, professional quality of life, and organizational commitment among midwifery nurses in Israeli hospitals. Methods: 131 midwives from three hospitals in the country's center in Israel participated in this study. The data were collected during 2021 using a self-report questionnaire that examined sociodemographic characteristics, the degree of exposure to traumatic events in the delivery room, personal resilience, post-traumatic symptoms, professional quality of life, and organizational commitment. Results: The three most difficult traumatic events for the midwives were death or fear of death of a newborn, death or fear of the death of a mother, and a quiet birth. The higher the frequency of exposure to traumatic events, the more numerous and intense the onset of post-trauma symptoms. The more numerous and powerful the post-trauma symptoms, the higher the level of professional burnout and/or compassion fatigue, and the lower the level of compassion satisfaction. High levels of compassion satisfaction and/or low professional burnout were expressed in a heightened sense of organizational commitment. Personal resilience, country of birth, traumatic symptoms, and organizational commitment predicted satisfaction from compassion. Conclusions: Midwives are exposed to traumatic events associated with dissatisfaction and impairment of the professional quality of life that accompanies burnout and compassion fatigue. Exposure to traumatic events leads to the appearance of traumatic symptoms, a decrease in organizational commitment, and psychological and mental well-being. The issue needs to be addressed by implementing training programs, organizational support, and policies to improving well-being and quality of care among midwives.

Keywords: organizational commitment, traumatic experiences, personal resilience, quality of life

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Authors: Hillary Jo Muyalde

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Introduction: Elite athletes train regularly to enhance their physical endurance, but sometimes, training sessions are not enough. When competition comes, these athletes struggle to find focus. Mental imagery is a psychological technique that helps condition the mind to focus and eventually help improve performance. This study aims to help elite competitive swimmers of the University of the East improve their performance with Mental Imagery as an auxiliary tool. Methodology: The study design used was quasi-experimental with a purposive sampling technique and a within-subject design. It was conducted with a total of 41 participants. The participants were given a Sport Imagery Ability Questionnaire (SIAQ) to measure imagery ability and the Mental Imagery Program. The study utilized a Paired T-test for data analysis where the participants underwent six weeks of no mental imagery training and were compared to six weeks with the Mental Imagery Program (MIP). The researcher recorded the personal best time of participants in their respective specialty stroke. Results: The results of the study showed a t-value of 17.804 for Butterfly stroke events, 9.922 for Backstroke events, 7.787 for Breaststroke events, and 17.440 in Freestyle. This indicated that MIP had a positive effect on participants’ performance. The SIAQ result also showed a big difference where -10.443 for Butterfly events, -5.363 for Backstroke, -7.244 for Breaststroke events, and -10.727 for Freestyle events, which meant the participants were able to image better than before MIP. Conclusion: In conclusion, the findings of this study showed that there is indeed an improvement in the performance of the participants after the application of the Mental Imagery Program. It is recommended from this study that the participants continue to use mental imagery as an auxiliary tool to their training regimen for continuous positive results.

Keywords: mental Imagery, personal best time, SIAQ, specialty stroke

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Authors: Abhisek Chakrabarty, Subhraprakash Mandal

Abstract:

Flash flood is one of the catastrophic natural hazards in the mountainous region of India. The recent flood in the Mandakini River in Kedarnath (14-17th June, 2013) is a classic example of flash floods that devastated Uttarakhand by killing thousands of people.The disaster was an integrated effect of high intensityrainfall, sudden breach of Chorabari Lake and very steep topography. Every year in Himalayan Region flash flood occur due to intense rainfall over a short period of time, cloud burst, glacial lake outburst and collapse of artificial check dam that cause high flow of river water. In Sikkim-Derjeeling Himalaya one of the probable flash flood occurrence zone is Teesta Watershed. The Teesta River is a right tributary of the Brahmaputra with draining mountain area of approximately 8600 Sq. km. It originates in the Pauhunri massif (7127 m). The total length of the mountain section of the river amounts to 182 km. The Teesta is characterized by a complex hydrological regime. The river is fed not only by precipitation, but also by melting glaciers and snow as well as groundwater. The present study describes an attempt to model surface runoff in upper Teesta basin, which is directly related to catastrophic flood events, by creating a system based on GIS technology. The main object was to construct a direct unit hydrograph for an excess rainfall by estimating the stream flow response at the outlet of a watershed. Specifically, the methodology was based on the creation of a spatial database in GIS environment and on data editing. Moreover, rainfall time-series data collected from Indian Meteorological Department and they were processed in order to calculate flow time and the runoff volume. Apart from the meteorological data, background data such as topography, drainage network, land cover and geological data were also collected. Clipping the watershed from the entire area and the streamline generation for Teesta watershed were done and cross-sectional profiles plotted across the river at various locations from Aster DEM data using the ERDAS IMAGINE 9.0 and Arc GIS 10.0 software. The analysis of different hydraulic model to detect flash flood probability ware done using HEC-RAS, Flow-2D, HEC-HMS Software, which were of great importance in order to achieve the final result. With an input rainfall intensity above 400 mm per day for three days the flood runoff simulation models shows outbursts of lakes and check dam individually or in combination with run-off causing severe damage to the downstream settlements. Model output shows that 313 Sq. km area were found to be most vulnerable to flash flood includes Melli, Jourthang, Chungthang, and Lachung and 655sq. km. as moderately vulnerable includes Rangpo,Yathang, Dambung,Bardang, Singtam, Teesta Bazarand Thangu Valley. The model was validated by inserting the rain fall data of a flood event took place in August 1968, and 78% of the actual area flooded reflected in the output of the model. Lastly preventive and curative measures were suggested to reduce the losses by probable flash flood event.

Keywords: flash flood, GIS, runoff, simulation model, Teesta river basin

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Authors: Basit Shahzad, Abdullatif M. Abdullatif

Abstract:

Recent advancements in Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and easy access to Internet have made social media the first choice for information sharing related to any important events or news. On Twitter, trend is a common feature that quantifies the level of popularity of a certain news or event. In this work, we examine the impact of Twitter trends on real world events by hypothesizing that Twitter trends have an influence on print media in Pakistan. For this, Twitter is used as a platform and Twitter trends as a base line. We first collect data from two sources (Twitter trends and print media) in the period May to August 2016. Obtained data from two sources is analyzed and it is observed that social media is significantly influencing the print media and majority of the news printed in newspaper are posted on Twitter earlier.

Keywords: twitter trends, text mining, effectiveness of trends, print media

Procedia PDF Downloads 256

Authors: Thanh Van Hoang, Tien Yin Chou, Yao Min Fang, Yi Min Huang, Xuan Linh Nguyen

Abstract:

Reliable information on the spatial distribution of annual rainfall and temperature is essential in research projects relating to urban and regional planning. This research presents results of a classification of temperature and rainfall in the Red River Delta of northern Vietnam based on measurements from seven meteorological stations (Ha Nam, Hung Yen, Lang, Nam Dinh, Ninh Binh, Phu Lien, Thai Binh) in the river basin over a thirty-years period from 1982-2011. The average accumulated rainfall trends in the delta are analysed and form the basis of research essential to weather and climate forecasting. This study employs interpolation based on the Kriging Method for daily rainfall (min and max) and daily temperature (min and max) in order to improve the understanding of sources of variation and uncertainly in these important meteorological parameters. To the Kriging method, the results will show the different models and the different parameters based on the various precipitation series. The results provide a useful reference to assist decision makers in developing smart agriculture strategies for the Red River Delta in Vietnam.

Keywords: spatial interpolation method, ArcGIS, temperature variability, rainfall variability, Red River Delta, Vietnam

Procedia PDF Downloads 324

Authors: Fidelis E. Uwumiro, Chimaobi O. Nwevo, Favour O. Osemwota, Victory O. Okpujie, Emeka S. Obi, Omamuyovbi F. Nwoagbe, Ejiroghene Tejere, Joycelyn Adjei-Mensah, Christopher N. Ekeh, Charles T. Ogbodo

Abstract:

Several risk factors associated with cardiovascular events have been identified as specific to Chronic Kidney Disease (CKD). This study endeavors to validate these CKD-specific risk factors using up-to-date national-level data, thereby highlighting the crucial significance of confirming the validity and generalizability of findings obtained from previous studies conducted on smaller patient populations. The study utilized the nationwide inpatient sample database to identify adult hospitalizations for CKD from 2016 to 2020, employing validated ICD-10-CM/PCS codes. A comprehensive literature review was conducted to identify both traditional and CKD-specific risk factors associated with cardiovascular events. Risk factors and cardiovascular events were defined using a combination of ICD-10-CM/PCS codes and statistical commands. Only risk factors with specific ICD-10 codes and hospitalizations with complete data were included in the study. Cardiovascular events of interest included cardiac arrhythmias, sudden cardiac death, acute heart failure, and acute coronary syndromes. Univariate and multivariate regression models were employed to evaluate the association between chronic kidney disease-specific risk factors and cardiovascular events while adjusting for the impact of traditional CV risk factors such as old age, hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, inactivity, and smoking. A total of 690,375 hospitalizations for CKD were included in the analysis. The study population was predominantly male (375,564, 54.4%) and primarily received care at urban teaching hospitals (512,258, 74.2%). The mean age of the study population was 61 years (SD 0.1), and 86.7% (598,555) had a CCI of 3 or more. At least one traditional risk factor for CV events was present in 84.1% of all hospitalizations (580,605), while 65.4% (451,505) included at least one CKD-specific risk factor for CV events. The incidence of CV events in the study was as follows: acute coronary syndromes (41,422; 6%), sudden cardiac death (13,807; 2%), heart failure (404,560; 58.6%), and cardiac arrhythmias (124,267; 18%). 91.7% (113,912) of all cardiac arrhythmias were atrial fibrillations. Significant odds of cardiovascular events on multivariate analyses included: malnutrition (aOR: 1.09; 95% CI: 1.06–1.13; p<0.001), post-dialytic hypotension (aOR: 1.34; 95% CI: 1.26–1.42; p<0.001), thrombophilia (aOR: 1.46; 95% CI: 1.29–1.65; p<0.001), sleep disorder (aOR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.09–1.25; p<0.001), and post-renal transplant immunosuppressive therapy (aOR: 1.39; 95% CI: 1.26–1.53; p<0.001). The study validated malnutrition, post-dialytic hypotension, thrombophilia, sleep disorders, and post-renal transplant immunosuppressive therapy, highlighting their association with increased risk for cardiovascular events in CKD patients. No significant association was observed between uremic syndrome, hyperhomocysteinemia, hyperuricemia, hypertriglyceridemia, leptin levels, carnitine deficiency, anemia, and the odds of experiencing cardiovascular events.

Keywords: cardiovascular events, cardiovascular risk factors in CKD, chronic kidney disease, nationwide inpatient sample

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Authors: Vahid Borji

Abstract:

The interaction between photons and particles is a common phenomenon in nature that is discussed in order to obtain information about the environment and the conditions governing the phenomena. In the astrophysics, like others, we study these interactions to get useful knowledge and can be predict aftercoming events. One of the events is the transition of photon beam through medium with special conditions, like shocked medium. In our discussion, we have studied this situation and obtained results for different conditions that transition of photon depends on the energy of photon and distributions of electrons in medium.

Keywords: cross section, astrophysics, GRB, photon

Procedia PDF Downloads 85

Authors: I. V. Kuzminov

Abstract:

The research is dedicated to the issue of Bosporus evolution and its key role in the Black Sea forming. Up till nowadays, there is no distinct picture of the historical and geographical events of the last 10 thousand years on the territory from Altai up to the Alps. The present article is an attempt to clarify and, moreover, link the presented version to the historical and climatic events of this period. The paper is a development of the basic idea stated in "Hypothesis on the Black Sea origin". The succession of events in dynamics is offered in this article. In the article, it is shown that fluctuation of the level of the World Ocean is a mirror of the basic events connected with the climate on the Earth on the one hand and hydraulic processes on the other hand. In the present article, it is come out with the assumption that at the formation of passage, there were some cycles of change in a level of the World ocean. The phase of the beginning of climate warming is characterized by an increase in the level of inland water bodies on the way of meltwater runoff and an increase in the World ocean level. The end of the warming phase is characterized by the continuation of a rise in the level of the World ocean and the drying up of inland water bodies deprived of meltwater replenishment.

Keywords: Bosporus, Ryan-Pitman hypothesis, fluctuations of the World Ocean level, the Paratethys Sea, catastrophic breakthrough

Procedia PDF Downloads 108

Authors: Noratiqah Mohd Ariff, Abdul Aziz Jemain, Mohd Aftar Abu Bakar

Abstract:

The construction of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves is one of the most common and useful tools in order to design hydraulic structures and to provide a mathematical relationship between rainfall characteristics. IDF curves, especially those in Peninsular Malaysia, are often built using moving windows of rainfalls. However, these windows do not represent the actual rainfall events since the duration of rainfalls is usually prefixed. Hence, instead of using moving windows, this study aims to find regionalized distributions for IDF curves of extreme rainfalls based on storm events. Homogeneity test is performed on annual maximum of storm intensities to identify homogeneous regions of storms in Peninsular Malaysia. The L-moment method is then used to regionalized Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution of these annual maximums and subsequently. IDF curves are constructed using the regional distributions. The differences between the IDF curves obtained and IDF curves found using at-site GEV distributions are observed through the computation of the coefficient of variation of root mean square error, mean percentage difference and the coefficient of determination. The small differences implied that the construction of IDF curves could be simplified by finding a general probability distribution of each region. This will also help in constructing IDF curves for sites with no rainfall station.

Keywords: IDF curves, L-moments, regionalization, storm events

Procedia PDF Downloads 523

Authors: Maria C. Proença, Maria T. Rebelo, Marília Antunes, Maria J. Alves, Hugo Osório, Sofia Cunha, REVIVE team

Abstract:

The environment of the mosquitoes complex Culex pipiens sl. in Portugal mainland is evaluated based in its abundance, using a data set georeferenced, collected during seven years (2006-2012) from May to October. The suitability of the different regions can be delineated using the relative abundance areas; the suitablility index is directly proportional to disease transmission risk and allows focusing mitigation measures in order to avoid outbreaks of vector-borne diseases. The interest in the Culex pipiens complex is justified by its medical importance: the females bite all warm-blooded vertebrates and are involved in the circulation of several arbovirus of concern to human health, like West Nile virus, iridoviruses, rheoviruses and parvoviruses. The abundance of Culex pipiens mosquitoes were documented systematically all over the territory by the local health services, in a long duration program running since 2006. The environmental factors used to characterize the vector habitat are land use/land cover, distance to cartographed water bodies, altitude and latitude. Focus will be on the mosquito females, which gonotrophic cycle mate-bloodmeal-oviposition is responsible for the virus transmission; its abundance is the key for the planning of non-aggressive prophylactic countermeasures that may eradicate the transmission risk and simultaneously avoid chemical ambient degradation. Meteorological parameters such as: air relative humidity, air temperature (minima, maxima and mean daily temperatures) and daily total rainfall were gathered from the weather stations network for the same dates and crossed with the standardized females’ abundance in a geographic information system (GIS). Mean capture and percentage of above average captures related to each variable are used as criteria to compute a threshold for each meteorological parameter; the difference of the mean capture above/below the threshold was statistically assessed. The meteorological parameters measured at the net of weather stations all over the country are averaged by month and interpolated to produce raster maps that can be segmented according to the meaningful thresholds for each parameter. The intersection of the maps of all the parameters obtained for each month show the evolution of the suitable meteorological conditions through the mosquito season, considered as May to October, although the first and last month are less relevant. In parallel, mean and above average captures were related to the physiographic parameters – the land use/land cover classes most relevant in each month, the altitudes preferred and the most frequent distance to water bodies, a factor closely related with the mosquito biology. The maps produced with these results were crossed with the meteorological maps previously segmented, in order to get an index of suitability for the complex Culex pipiens evaluated all over the country, and its evolution from the beginning to the end of the mosquitoes season.

Keywords: suitability index, Culex pipiens, habitat evolution, GIS model

Procedia PDF Downloads 575