Search results for: accelerating universes in brane scenarios

Authors: Maria Fatima Almeida, Rodrigo Calili, George Soares, João Krause, Myrthes Marcele Dos Santos, Anna Carolina Suzano E. Silva, Marcos Alexandre Da

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In Brazil, the building sector accounts for 1/6 of energy consumption and 50% of electricity consumption. A complex sector with several driving actors plays an essential role in the country's economy. Currently, the digitalization readiness in this sector is still low, mainly due to the high investment costs and the difficulty of estimating the benefits of digital technologies in buildings. Nevertheless, the potential contribution of digitalization for increasing energy efficiency in the building sector in Brazil has been pointed out as relevant in the political and sectoral contexts, both in the medium and long-term horizons. To contribute to the debate on the possible evolving trajectories of digitalization in the building sector in Brazil and to subsidize the formulation or revision of current public policies and managerial decisions, three future scenarios were created to anticipate the potential energy efficiency in the building sector in Brazil due to digitalization by 2050. This work aims to present these scenarios as a basis to foresight the potential energy efficiency in this sector, according to different digitalization paces - slow, moderate, or fast in the 2050 horizon. A methodological approach was proposed to create alternative prospective scenarios, combining the Global Business Network (GBN) and the Laboratory for Investigation in Prospective Strategy and Organisation (LIPSOR) methods. This approach consists of seven steps: (i) definition of the question to be foresighted and time horizon to be considered (2050); (ii) definition and classification of a set of key variables, using the prospective structural analysis; (iii) identification of the main actors with an active role in the digital and energy spheres; (iv) characterization of the current situation (2021) and identification of main uncertainties that were considered critical in the development of alternative future scenarios; (v) scanning possible futures using morphological analysis; (vi) selection and description of the most likely scenarios; (vii) foresighting the potential energy efficiency in each of the three scenarios, namely slow digitalization; moderate digitalization, and fast digitalization. Each scenario begins with a core logic and then encompasses potentially related elements, including potential energy efficiency. Then, the first scenario refers to digitalization at a slow pace, with induction by the government limited to public buildings. In the second scenario, digitalization is implemented at a moderate pace, induced by the government in public, commercial, and service buildings, through regulation integrating digitalization and energy efficiency mechanisms. Finally, in the third scenario, digitalization in the building sector is implemented at a fast pace in the country and is strongly induced by the government, but with broad participation of private investments and accelerated adoption of digital technologies. As a result of the slow pace of digitalization in the sector, the potential for energy efficiency stands at levels below 10% of the total of 161TWh by 2050. In the moderate digitalization scenario, the potential reaches 20 to 30% of the total 161TWh by 2050. Furthermore, in the rapid digitalization scenario, it will reach 30 to 40% of the total 161TWh by 2050.

Keywords: building digitalization, energy efficiency, scenario building, prospective structural analysis, morphological analysis

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Authors: Zane Bulderberga

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Spatial dimension in development planning is becoming more topical in 21st century as a result of changes in population structure. Sustainable spatial development focuses on identifying and using territorial advantages to foster the harmonized development of the entire country, reducing negative effects of population concentration, increasing availability and mobility. EU and national development planning documents state polycentrism as main tool for balance spatial development, including investment concentration in growth centres. If mutual cooperation of growth centres as well as urban-rural cooperation is not fostered, then territorial differences can deepen and create unbalanced development. The aim of research: to evaluate the urban-rural interaction, elaborating spatial development scenarios in framework of Latvian regional policy. To perform the research monographic, comparison, abstract-logical method, synthesis and analysis will be used when studying the theoretical aspects of research aiming at collecting the ideas of scientists from different countries, concepts, regulations as well as to create meaningful scientific discussion. Hierarchy analysis process (AHP) will be used to state further scenarios of spatial development in Latvia. Experts from various institutions recognized urban-rural interaction and co-operation as an essential tool for the development. The most important factors for balanced spatial development in Latvia are availability of public transportation and improvement of service availability. Evaluating the three alternative scenarios, it was concluded that the urban-rural partnership will ensure a balanced development in Latvian regions.

Keywords: rural-urban interaction, rural-urban cooperation, spatial development, AHP

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Authors: Jiun-Horng Tsai, Shi-Jie, Nieh

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Fine particulate matter (PM₂.₅) has become an important issue all over the world over the last decade. Annual mean PM₂.₅ concentration has been over the ambient air quality standard of PM₂.₅ (annual average concentration as 15μg/m³) which adapted by Taiwan Environmental Protection Administration (TEPA). TEPA, therefore, has developed a number of air pollution control measures to improve the ambient concentration by reducing the emissions of primary fine particulate matter and the precursors of secondary PM₂.₅. This study investigated the potential improvement of ambient PM₂.₅ concentration by the TEPA program and the other scenario for further emission reduction on various sources. Four scenarios had been evaluated in this study, including a basic case and three reduction scenarios (A to C). The ambient PM₂.₅ concentration was evaluated by Community Multi-scale Air Quality modelling system (CMAQ) ver. 4.7.1 along with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF) ver. 3.4.1. The grid resolutions in the modelling work are 81 km × 81 km for domain 1 (covers East Asia), 27 km × 27 km for domain 2 (covers Southeast China and Taiwan), and 9 km × 9 km for domain 3 (covers Taiwan). The result of PM₂.₅ concentration simulation in different regions of Taiwan shows that the annual average concentration of basic case is 24.9 μg/m³, and are 22.6, 18.8, and 11.3 μg/m³, respectively, for scenarios A to C. The annual average concentration of PM₂.₅ would be reduced by 9-55 % for those control scenarios. The result of scenario C (the emissions of precursors reduce to allowance levels) could improve effectively the airborne PM₂.₅ concentration to attain the air quality standard. According to the results of unit precursor reduction contribution, the allowance emissions of PM₂.₅, SOₓ, and NOₓ are 16.8, 39, and 62 thousand tons per year, respectively. In the Kao-Ping air basin, the priority for reducing precursor emissions is PM₂.₅ > NOₓ > SOₓ, whereas the priority for reducing precursor emissions is PM₂.₅ > SOₓ > NOₓ in others area. The result indicates that the target pollutants that need to be reduced in different air basin are different, and the control measures need to be adapted to local conditions.

Keywords: airborne PM₂.₅, community multi-scale air quality modelling system, control measures, weather research and forecasting model

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Authors: M. K. Benhaoua, A. K. Singh, A. E. H. Benyamina, A. Kumar, P. Boulet

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In this paper, we propose a new packing strategy to find free resources for run-time mapping of application tasks on NoC-based Heterogeneous MPSoCs. The proposed strategy minimizes the task mapping time in addition to placing the communicating tasks close to each other. To evaluate our approach, a comparative study is carried out. Experiments show that our strategy provides better results when compared to latest dynamic mapping strategies reported in the literature.

Keywords: heterogeneous MPSoCs, NoC, dynamic mapping, routing

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Authors: Shyam Sunder Gupta

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For creation of Universe, theory of Big Bang , from Singularity is most acceptable theory, but has limitations as it does not answer ; how Singularity gets created and what causes Big Bang ?Further , Universe is composed of 95% Dark Energy and Dark Matter and balance 5% is visible part of Universe , but no explanation . Recently, it has been reported that there could be very large number of Universes, but only , a stipulation. This research which is based on Bhagvat Puran, a Vedic Scripture answers all questions. There is a Unique Energy Field which is eternal and infinite. The carrier Particles of Unique Energy are Paramanus; God Particles. Paramanus are Fundamental Particles and combination of these particles create bigger particles from which Universe gets created. For creation to initiate, Unique Energy gets represented in three phases; Positive Male Energy, Neutral Energy(creates Eternal Time)and Negative Female Energy. Positive Male Energy further expands in three forms of Creative Energies (CE1,CE2andCE3)and 16 principles get created, namely, Energy of Activation , Energy of Action, Energy of Darkness, Pradhan ( Equilibrium state of three energies ) , Prakriti(Non-equilibrium state of three energies, creating modes of Activation, Action and Darkness),Mahat-tattva ( consists of three modes , dominant in Mode of Darkness), Time, Energy of Consciousness, Ego Energy(consists of three modes , very strongly dominated by Mode of Darkness),Energy of Intellect, Mind Energy , Sky( creates Space and Sound Energy),Air(creates gaseous substances), Fire( creates different forms of energies like thermal, light, electrical etc.), Water( creates liquid substances)and Earth(creates solid substances). CE1 Energy creates Infinite number of Singularities from seven principles, Pradhan , Mahat-tattva, Sky , Air, Fire, Water and Earth . CE1 Energy gets divided as CE2 and enters along with other 9 principles , in each of Singularity and Primary Big Bang takes and infinite number of Universes get created. Each Universe has seven coverings of 7 principles and each layer is 10 times thicker than previous layer. By Energy CE2 , space in Universe under the coverings is divided in two parts , upper part and lower part. Upper part is occupied by Dark Energy which is created from Mode of Darkness in Ego Energy which keeps getting converted in Dark Matter and forms Invisible part of Universe. In the lower part , process of evolution gets initiated and seeds of 24 elements , Consciousness , Ego, Intellect, Mind, 5 Fundamental Elements( space, Air, Fire, Water Earth, which create non-living matter ),5 senses which receive inputs( eyes, nose, ears, tongue , skin), 5 Working Senses (Smell, Taste, Sight, Touch and Hearing);5 elements of Action( Organs of procreation , excretion, locomotion , speech and acquisition ), get created . In EC2 Energy, Singularity gets created which gets exploded by force of Energy of Action ,and Secondary Big Bang takes place and Visible Universe gets created in the shape of Bud of Flower Lotus . Within the Visible part of Universe, a small part gets created , Phenomenal Universe. Diameter of Sun and planetary system ,at the time of formation ,is 6.4 billion km, which is close to reported value . There are 5 different orbits , with reference to our Solar System. Moon around earth takes one month,, earth around sun one year, sun around Milk way one cosmic year(322.58 million years), Milky way around Universe 4.32 billion years and universe around center of universe 311.04 trillion years. Universe creation is a cyclic process with cycle time of 622.08 trillion years.In summary, Universe consists of 4 parts; covering of 7 layers, Dark Energy and Dark Matter, Visible and Phenomenal universe.

Keywords: big bang, creation, dark energy, dark matter, singularity, universe

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Authors: Chiara Cesali

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The effects of climate change are increasingly evident: increases in temperature (i.e. global warming), greater frequency of extreme weather events, i.e. storms, floods, which often affect transport infrastructures. Large-scale climatological models with long-term horizons (up to 2100) show the possibility of significant increases in precipitation in the future, according to the greenhouse gas emissions scenarios from IPCC. Consequently, the insufficiency of existing hydraulic works (i.e. bridges, culverts, drainage systems) may be more frequent, or those currently being designed may become insufficient in the future. Thus, the hydraulic design methods of transport infrastructure must begin to take into account the influence of climate change. To this purpose, criteria for applying to the hydraulic design of a railway infrastructure some of the approaches currently available for determining design rainfall intensity and/or peak discharge flow on the basis of possible climate change scenarios are defined and proposed in the paper. Some application cases are also described.

Keywords: climate change, hydraulic design, precipitation, railway

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Authors: Domenico Carmelo Mongelli, Laura Carnieletto, Michele De Carli, Filippo Busato

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Starting from the current context in which the Russian invasion in Ukraine has highlighted Europe's dependence on natural gas imports for heating buildings, this study proposes solutions to resolve this dependency and evaluates related scenarios in the near future. In the first part of this work the methodologies and results of the economic impact are indicated by simulating a massive replacement of boilers powered by fossil fuels with electrically powered hightemperature air-water heat pumps for heating residential buildings in different European climates, without changing the current energy mix. For each individual European region, the costs for the purchase and installation of heat pumps for all residential buildings have been determined. Again for each individual European region, the economic savings during the operation phase that would be obtained in this future scenario of energy transition from fossil fuels to the electrification of domestic heating were calculated. For the European regions for which the economic savings were identified as positive, the payback times of the economic investments were analysed. In the second part of the work, hypothesizing different scenarios for a possible greater use of renewable energy sources and therefore with different possible future scenarios of the energy mix, the methodologies and results of the simulations on the economic analysis and on the environmental analysis are reported which have allowed us to evaluate the future effects of the energy transition from boilers to heat pumps for each European region. In the third part, assuming a rapid short-term diffusion of cooling for European residential buildings, the penetration shares in the cooling market and future projections of energy needs for cooling for each European region have been identified. A database was created where the results of this research relating to 38 European Nations divided into 179 regions were reported. Other previous works on the topics covered were limited to analyzing individual European nations, without ever going into detail about the individual regions within each nation, while the original contribution of the present work lies in the fact that the results achieved allow a specific numerical analysis and punctual for every single European region.

Keywords: buildings, energy, Europe, future

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Authors: Sombol Mokhles

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This paper tries to show the prospects of utilising (big)data for enabling just the transition of diverse cities. Our key purpose is to offer a framework of applications and implications of utlising (big) data in comparing sustainability transitions across different cities. Relying on the cosmopolitan comparison, this paper explains the potential application of (big) data but also its limitations. The paper calls for adopting a data-driven and just perspective in including different cities around the world. Having a just and inclusive approach at the front and centre ensures a just transition with synergistic effects that leave nobody behind.

Keywords: big data, just sustainable transition, cosmopolitan city comparison, cities

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Authors: Suraj Jena, Rabindra Kumar Panda

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The study region of the reported study was in Eastern India, having a sub-humid sub-tropical climate and sandy loam soil. The rainfall in this region has wide temporal and spatial variation. Due to lack of adequate surface water to meet the irrigation and household demands, groundwater is being over exploited in that region leading to continuous depletion of groundwater level. Therefore, there is an obvious urgency in reversing the depleting groundwater level through induced recharge, which becomes more critical under the climate change scenarios. The major goal of the reported study was to investigate the effects of climate change on groundwater recharge and subsequent adaptation strategies. Groundwater recharge was modelled using HELP3, a quasi-two-dimensional, deterministic, water-routing model along with global climate models (GCMs) and three global warming scenarios, to examine the changes in groundwater recharge rates for a 2030 climate under a variety of soil and vegetation covers. The relationship between the changing mean annual recharge and mean annual rainfall was evaluated for every combination of soil and vegetation using sensitivity analysis. The relationship was found to be statistically significant (p<0.05) with a coefficient of determination of 0.81. Vegetation dynamics and water-use affected by the increase in potential evapotranspiration for large climate variability scenario led to significant decrease in recharge from 49–658 mm to 18–179 mm respectively. Therefore, appropriate conjunctive use, irrigation schedule and enhanced recharge practices under the climate variability and land use/land cover change scenarios impacting the groundwater recharge needs to be understood properly for groundwater sustainability.

Keywords: Groundwater recharge, climate variability, Land use/cover, GCM

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Authors: Yu Zhang, Kohei Inoue, Kiichi Urahama

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We propose a simplified bilateral filter with binarized coefficients for accelerating it. Its computational cost is further decreased by sampling pixels. This computationally low cost filter is useful for smoothing or denoising images by using mobile devices with limited computational power.

Keywords: bilateral filter, binarized-weight bilateral filter, image smoothing, image denoising, pixel sampling

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Authors: Mafel Obhuo, Dodeye I. Igbong, Duabari S. Aziaka, Pericles Pilidis

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An important feature of the exploitation of associated gas as fuel for gas turbine engines is a declining supply. So when exploiting this resource, the divestment of prime movers is very important as the fuel supply diminishes with time. This paper explores the influence of engine degradation on the timing of divestments. Hypothetical but realistic gas turbine engines were modelled with Turbomatch, the Cranfield University gas turbine performance simulation tool. The results were deployed in three degradation scenarios within the TERA (Techno-economic and environmental risk analysis) framework to develop economic models. An optimisation with Genetic Algorithms was carried out to maximize the economic benefit. The results show that degradation will have a significant impact. It will delay the divestment of power plants, while they are running less efficiently. Over a 20 year investment, a decrease of $0.11bn, $0.26bn and $0.45bn (billion US dollars) were observed for the three degradation scenarios as against the clean case.

Keywords: economic return, flared associated gas, net present value, optimization

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Authors: Phuong Nguyen

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Along with the ongoing energy transition, the electrical power system is getting more vulnerable with the increasing penetration of renewable energy sources (RES). By replacing a large amount of fossil fuel-based power plants with RES, the rotating mass of the power grid is decreasing drastically, which has been reported by a number of system operators. This leads to a huge challenge for operators to secure the operation of their grids in all-time horizon ranges, from sub-seconds to minutes and even hours. There is a need to revise the grid capabilities in dealing with transient (angle) stability and voltage dynamics. While the traditional approaches relied on deterministic scenarios (worst-case scenarios), there is also a need to cover a whole range of probabilities regarding a wide range of uncertainties coming from massive RES units. To contribute to handle these issues, this paper aims to focus on developing a new analytical approach for transient stability.

Keywords: transient stability, uncertainties, renewable energy sources, analytical approach

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Authors: Lancer Scott

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Purpose: High quality clinical disaster medicine requires providers working collaboratively to care for multiple patients in chaotic environments; however, many providers lack adequate training. To address this deficit, we created a competency-based, 5-hour Emergency Preparedness Training (EPT) curriculum using didactics, small-group discussion, and kinetic learning. The goal was to evaluate the effect of a short course on improving provider knowledge, confidence and skills in disaster scenarios. Methods: Diverse groups of medical university students, health care professionals, and community members were enrolled between 2011 and 2014. The course consisted of didactic lectures, small group exercises, and two live, multi-patient mass casualty incident (MCI) scenarios. The outcome measures were based on core competencies and performance objectives developed by a curriculum task force and assessed via trained facilitator observation, pre- and post-testing, and a course evaluation. Results: 708 participants completed were trained between November 2011 and August 2014, including 49.9% physicians, 31.9% medical students, 7.2% nurses, and 11% various other healthcare professions. 100% of participants completed the pre-test and 71.9% completed the post-test, with average correct answers increasing from 39% to 60%. Following didactics, trainees met 73% and 96% of performance objectives for the two small group exercises and 68.5% and 61.1% of performance objectives for the two MCI scenarios. Average trainee self-assessment of both overall knowledge and skill with clinical disasters improved from 33/100 to 74/100 (overall knowledge) and 33/100 to 77/100 (overall skill). The course assessment was completed by 34.3% participants, of whom 91.5% highly recommended the course. Conclusion: A relatively short, intensive EPT course can improve the ability of a diverse group of disaster care providers to respond effectively to mass casualty scenarios.

Keywords: clinical disaster medicine, training, hospital preparedness, surge capacity, education, curriculum, research, performance, training, student, physicians, nurses, health care providers, health care

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Authors: Mohammad Zare, Mahbubeh Sheikh

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Many of the impact of climate change will material through change in soil erosion which were rarely addressed in Iran. This paper presents an investigation of the impacts of climate change soil erosin for the Kasilian basin. LARS-WG5 was used to downscale the IPCM4 and GFCM21 predictions of the A2 scenarios for the projected periods of 1985-2030 and 2080-2099. This analysis was carried out by means of the dataset the International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) of Trieste. Soil loss modeling using Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE). Results indicate that soil erosion increase or decrease, depending on which climate scenarios are considered. The potential for climate change to increase soil loss rate, soil erosion in future periods was established, whereas considerable decreases in erosion are projected when land use is increased from baseline periods.

Keywords: Kasilian watershed, climatic change, soil erosion, LARS-WG5 Model, RUSLE

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Authors: Masoud Soltani Hosseini, Fereshteh Rahmani, Mohammad Tajik Mansouri, Ali Zolghadr

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Climate change is accompanied with ambient temperature increase and water accessibility limitation. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of climate change on thermal power plants including gas turbines, steam and combined cycle power plants in Iran. For this purpose, the ambient temperature increase and water accessibility will be analyzed and their effects on power output and efficiency of thermal power plants will be determined. According to the results, the ambient temperature has high effect on steam power plants with indirect cooling system (Heller). The efficiency of this type of power plants decreases by 0.55 percent per 1oC ambient temperature increase. This amount is 0.52 and 0.2 percent for once-through and wet cooling systems, respectively. The decrease in power output covers a range of 0.2% to 0.65% for steam power plant with wet cooling system and gas turbines per 1oC air temperature increase. Based on the thermal power plants distribution in Iran and different scenarios of climate change, the total amount of power output decrease falls between 413 and 1661 MW due to ambient temperature increase. Another limitation incurred by climate change is water accessibility. In optimistic scenario, the power output of steam plants decreases by 1450 MW in dry and hot climate areas throughout next decades. The remaining scenarios indicate that the amount of decrease in power output would be by 4152 MW in highlands and cold climate. Therefore, it is necessary to consider appropriate solutions to overcome these limitations. Considering all the climate change effects together, the actual power output falls in range of 2465 and 7294 MW and efficiency loss covers the range of 0.12 to .56 % in different scenarios.

Keywords: climate, change, thermal, power plants

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Authors: Noradin Ghadimi, Nima Amjady, Oveis Abedinia, Roza Poursoleiman

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This paper proposed an Improved Honey Bee Mating Optimization (IHBMO) for a planning paradigm for network upgrade. The proposed technique is a new meta-heuristic algorithm which inspired by mating of the honey bee. The paradigm is able to select amongst several choices equi-cost one assuring the optimum in terms of voltage profile, considering various scenarios of DG penetration and load demand. The distributed generation (DG) has created a challenge and an opportunity for developing various novel technologies in power generation. DG prepares a multitude of services to utilities and consumers, containing standby generation, peaks chopping sufficiency, base load generation. The proposed algorithm is applied over the 30 lines, 28 buses power system. The achieved results demonstrate the good efficiency of the DG using the proposed technique in different scenarios.

Keywords: distributed generation, IHBMO, renewable energy units, network upgrade

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Authors: L. Heidari, M. Jalili Ghazizade

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This paper aims to determine the best environmental and economic scenario for Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) management of the Maku city by using Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) approach. The functional elements of this study are collection, transportation, and disposal of MSW in Maku city. Waste composition and density, as two key parameters of MSW, have been determined by field sampling, and then, the other important specifications of MSW like chemical formula, thermal energy and water content were calculated. These data beside other information related to collection and disposal facilities are used as a reliable source of data to assess the environmental impacts of different waste management options, including landfills, composting, recycling and energy recovery. The environmental impact of MSW management options has been investigated in 15 different scenarios by Integrated Waste Management (IWM) software. The photochemical smog, greenhouse gases, acid gases, toxic emissions, and energy consumption of each scenario are measured. Then, the environmental indices of each scenario are specified by weighting these parameters. Economic costs of scenarios have been also compared with each other based on literature. As final result, since the organic materials make more than 80% of the waste, compost can be a suitable method. Although the major part of the remaining 20% of waste can be recycled, due to the high cost of necessary equipment, the landfill option has been suggested. Therefore, the scenario with 80% composting and 20% landfilling is selected as superior environmental and economic scenario. This study shows that, to select a scenario with practical applications, simultaneously environmental and economic aspects of different scenarios must be considered.

Keywords: IWM software, life cycle assessment, Maku, municipal solid waste management

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Authors: Omar Ramzi Jasim, Jalal Sultan Ashour

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Production Planning or Master Production Schedule (MPS) is a key interface between marketing and manufacturing, since it links customer service directly to efficient use of production resources. Mismanagement of the MPS is considered as one of fundamental problems in operation and it can potentially lead to poor customer satisfaction. In this paper, a hybrid evolutionary algorithm (ICA-GA) is presented, which integrates the merits of both imperialist competitive algorithm (ICA) and genetic algorithm (GA) for solving multi-objective MPS problems. In the presented algorithm, the colonies in each empire has be represented a small population and communicate with each other using genetic operators. By testing on 5 production scenarios, the numerical results of ICA-GA algorithm show the efficiency and capabilities of the hybrid algorithm in finding the optimum solutions. The ICA-GA solutions yield the lower inventory level and keep customer satisfaction high and the required overtime is also lower, compared with results of GA and SA in all production scenarios.

Keywords: master production scheduling, genetic algorithm, imperialist competitive algorithm, hybrid algorithm

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Authors: Sungkyung Kim, Jee-Hyeon Na, Dong-Seung Kwon

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Future mobile networks following 5th generation will be characterized by one thousand times higher gains in capacity; connections for at least one hundred billion devices; user experience capable of extremely low latency and response times. To be close to the capacity requirements and higher reliability, advanced technologies have been studied, such as multiple connectivity, small cell enhancement, heterogeneous networking, and advanced interference and mobility management. This paper is focused on the multiple connectivity in heterogeneous cellular networks. We investigate the performance of coverage and user throughput in several deployment scenarios. Using the stochastic geometry approach, the SINR distributions and the coverage probabilities are derived in case of dual connection. Also, to compare the user throughput enhancement among the deployment scenarios, we calculate the spectral efficiency and discuss our results.

Keywords: heterogeneous networks, multiple connectivity, small cell enhancement, stochastic geometry

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Authors: Zhou BingHai, Fradet Victor

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Lean philosophy follows the simple principle of “creating more value with fewer resources”. In accordance with this policy, material handling can be managed by the mean of Kanban which by triggering every feeding tour only when needed regulates the flow of material in one of the most efficient way. This paper focuses on Kanban Supermarket’s parameters and their optimization on a purely cost-based point of view. Number and size of forklifts, as well as size of the containers they carry, will be variables of the cost function which includes handling costs, inventory costs but also shortage costs. With an innovative computational approach encoded into industrial engineering software Tecnomatix and reproducing real-life conditions, a fictive assembly line is established and produces a random list of orders. Multi-scenarios are then run to study the impact of each change of parameter and the variation of costs it implies. Lastly, best-case scenarios financially speaking are selected.

Keywords: Kanban, supermarket, parts-feeding policies, multi-scenario simulation, assembly line

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Authors: John Okanda Okwaro

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Carbon (IV) oxide (CO₂) is emitted majorly from fossil fuel combustion and industrial production. The sources of interest of carbon (IV) oxide in the study area are mining activities, transport systems, and industrial processes. This study is aimed at building models that will help in monitoring the emissions within the study area. Three scenarios were discussed, namely: pessimistic scenario, business-as-usual scenario, and optimistic scenario. The result showed that there was a reduction in carbon dioxide concentration by approximately 50.5 ppm between March 2020 and January 2021 inclusive. This is majorly due to reduced human activities that led to decreased consumption of energy. Also, the CO₂ concentration trend follows the business-as-usual scenario (BAU) path. From the models, the pessimistic, business-as-usual, and optimistic scenarios give CO₂ concentration of about 545.9 ppm, 408.1 ppm, and 360.1 ppm, respectively, on December 31st, 2021. This research helps paint the picture to the policymakers of the relationship between energy sources and CO₂ emissions. Since the reduction in CO₂ emission was due to decreased use of fossil fuel as there was a decrease in economic activities, then if Kenya relies more on green energy than fossil fuel in the post-COVID-19 period, there will be more CO₂ emission reduction. That is, the CO₂ concentration trend is likely to follow the optimistic scenario path, hence a reduction in CO₂ concentration of about 48 ppm by the end of the year 2021. This research recommends investment in solar energy by energy-intensive companies, mine machinery and equipment maintenance, investment in electric vehicles, and doubling tree planting efforts to achieve the 10% cover.

Keywords: forecasting, greenhouse gas, green energy, hierarchical data format

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Authors: Savita Tangwongkit, Chittur S Srinivasan, Philip J. Jones

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Thailand has become the world’s fourth largest sugarcane producer and second largest sugar exporter. While there have been a number of drivers of this growth, the primary driver has been wide-ranging government support measures. Recently, the Thai government has emphasized the need for policy reform as part of a broader industry restructuring to bring the sector up-to-date with the current and future developments in the international sugar market. Because of the sectors historical dependence on government support, any such reform is likely to have a very significant impact on the fortunes of Thai cane farmers. This study explores the impact of three policy scenarios, representing a spectrum of policy approaches, on Thai cane producers. These reform scenarios were designed in consultation with policy makers and academics working in the cane sector. Scenario 1 captures the current ‘government proposal’ for policy reform. This scenario removes certain domestic production subsidies but seeks to maintain as much support as is permissible under current WTO rules. The second scenario, ‘protectionism’, maintains the current internal market producer supports, but otherwise complies with international (WTO) commitments. Third, the ‘libertarian scenario’ removes all production support and market interventions, trade and domestic consumption distortions. Most important driver of producer behaviour in all of the scenarios is the producer price of cane. Cane price is obviously highest under the protectionism scenario, followed by government proposal and libertarian scenarios, respectively. Likely producer responses to these three policy scenarios was determined by means of a large-scale survey of cane farmers. The sample was stratified by size group and quotas filled by size group and region. One scenario was presented to each of three sub-samples, consisting of approx.150 farmers. Total sample size was 462 farms. Data was collected by face-to-face interview between June and August 2019. There was a marked difference in farmer response to the three scenarios. Farmers in the ‘Protectionism’ scenario, which maintains the highest cane price and those who farm larger cane areas are more likely to continue cane farming. The libertarian scenario is likely to result in the greatest losses in terms of cane production volume broadly double that of the ‘protectionism’ scenario, primarily due to farmers quitting cane production altogether. Over half of loss cane production volume comes from medium-size farm, i.e. the largest and smallest producers are the most resilient. This result is likely due to the fact that the medium size group are large enough to require hired labour but lack the economies of scale of the largest farms. Over all size groups the farms most heavily specialized in cane production, i.e. those devoting 26-50% of arable land to cane, are also the most vulnerable, with 70% of all farmers quitting cane production coming from this group. This investigation suggests that cane price is the most significant determinant of farmer behaviour. Also, that where scenarios drive significantly lower cane price, policy makers should target support towards mid-sized producers, with policies that encourage efficiency gains and diversification into alternative agricultural crops.

Keywords: farmer intentions, farm survey, policy reform, Thai cane production

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Authors: Katerina Nerantzaki, Panayiota Metallidou, Anastasia Efklides

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The aim of the study was to investigate: (a) changes in the intensity of various epistemic emotions during cognitive processing in a decision-making task and (b) their associations with metacognitive feelings of difficulty and confidence. One hundred and fifty-two undergraduate university students were asked individually to read in the e-prime environment decision-making scenarios about moral dilemmas concerning self-driving cars, which differed in the level of conflict they produced, and then to make a choice between two options. Further, the participants were asked to rate on a four-point scale four epistemic emotions (surprise, curiosity, confusion, and wonder) and two metacognitive feelings (feeling of difficulty and feeling of confidence) after making their choice in each scenario. Changes in cognitive processing due to the level of conflict affected differently the intensity of the specific epistemic emotions. Further, there were interrelations of epistemic emotions with metacognitive feelings.

Keywords: confusion, curiosity, epistemic emotions, metacognitive experiences, surprise

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Authors: Alireza Nikbakht Shahbazi

Abstract:

There are various factors that affect climate changes; drought is one of those factors. Investigation of efficient methods for estimating climate change impacts on drought should be assumed. The aim of this paper is to investigate climate change impacts on drought in Karoon3 watershed located south-western Iran in the future periods. The atmospheric general circulation models (GCM) data under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios should be used for this purpose. In this study, watershed drought under climate change impacts will be simulated in future periods (2011 to 2099). Standard precipitation index (SPI) as a drought index was selected and calculated using mean monthly precipitation data in Karoon3 watershed. SPI was calculated in 6, 12 and 24 months periods. Statistical analysis on daily precipitation and minimum and maximum daily temperature was performed. LRAS-WG5 was used to determine the feasibility of future period's meteorological data production. Model calibration and verification was performed for the base year (1980-2007). Meteorological data simulation for future periods under General Circulation Models and climate change IPCC scenarios was performed and then the drought status using SPI under climate change effects analyzed. Results showed that differences between monthly maximum and minimum temperature will decrease under climate change and spring precipitation shall increase while summer and autumn rainfall shall decrease. The precipitation occurs mainly between January and May in future periods and summer or autumn precipitation decline and lead up to short term drought in the study region. Normal and wet SPI category is more frequent in B1 and A2 emissions scenarios than A1B.

Keywords: climate change impact, drought severity, drought frequency, Karoon3 watershed

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Authors: Luis Reynaldo Mota-Santiago, Angélica Lozano

Abstract:

Determining appropriate measures to face earthquakesarea challenge for practitioners. In the literature, some analyses consider disaster scenarios, disregarding some important field characteristics. Sometimes, software that allows estimating the number of victims and infrastructure damages is used. Other times historical information of previous events is used, or the scenarios’informationis assumed to be available even if it isnot usual in practice. Humanitarian operations start immediately after an earthquake strikes, and the first hours in relief efforts are important; local efforts are critical to assess the situation and deliver relief supplies to the victims. A preparation action is prepositioning stockpiles, most of them at central warehouses placed away from damage-prone areas, which requires large size facilities and budget. Usually, decisions in the first 12 hours (standard relief time (SRT)) after the disaster are the location of temporary depots and the design of distribution paths. The motivation for this research was the delay in the reaction time of the early relief efforts generating the late arrival of aid to some areas after the Mexico City 7.1 magnitude earthquake in 2017. Hence, a preparation approach for planning the immediate response to earthquake disasters is proposed, intended for local governments, considering their capabilities for planning and for responding during the SRT, in order to reduce the start-up time of immediate response operations in urban areas. The first steps are the generation and analysis of disaster scenarios, which allow estimatethe relief demand before and in the early hours after an earthquake. The scenarios can be based on historical data and/or the seismic hazard analysis of an Atlas of Natural Hazards and Risk as a way to address the limited or null available information.The following steps include the decision processes for: a) locating local depots (places to prepositioning stockpiles)and aid-giving facilities at closer places as possible to risk areas; and b) designing the vehicle paths for aid distribution (from local depots to the aid-giving facilities), which can be used at the beginning of the response actions. This approach allows speeding up the delivery of aid in the early moments of the emergency, which could reduce the suffering of the victims allowing additional time to integrate a broader and more streamlined response (according to new information)from national and international organizations into these efforts. The proposed approachis applied to two case studies in Mexico City. These areas were affectedby the 2017’s earthquake, having limited aid response. The approach generates disaster scenarios in an easy way and plans a faster early response with a short quantity of stockpiles which can be managed in the early hours of the emergency by local governments. Considering long-term storage, the estimated quantities of stockpiles require a limited budget to maintain and a small storage space. These stockpiles are useful also to address a different kind of emergencies in the area.

Keywords: disaster logistics, early response, generation of disaster scenarios, preparation phase

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Authors: Nitin Singh, Meng Ling, Talha Ahmed, Tianxia Zhao, Reinier van de Pol

Abstract:

We propose the use of reinforcement learning (RL) as a viable alternative for optimizing supply chain management, particularly in scenarios with stochasticity in product demands. RL’s adaptability to changing conditions and its demonstrated success in diverse fields of sequential decision-making makes it a promising candidate for addressing supply chain problems. We investigate the impact of demand fluctuations in a multi-product supply chain system and develop RL agents with learned generalizable policies. We provide experimentation details for training RL agents and statistical analysis of the results. We study the generalization ability of RL agents for different demand uncertainty scenarios and observe superior performance compared to the agents trained with fixed demand curves. The proposed methodology has the potential to lead to cost reduction and increased profit for companies dealing with frequent inventory movement between supply and demand nodes.

Keywords: inventory management, reinforcement learning, supply chain optimization, uncertainty

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Authors: Dawit Abay Tesfamariam

Abstract:

Ethiopia’s Climate- Resilient Green Economy strategy focuses mainly on generating and utilization of Renewable Energy (RE). The data collected in 2016 by Ethiopian Electric Power (EEP) indicates that the intermittent RE sources on the grid from solar and wind energy were only 8 % of the total energy produced. On the other hand, the EEP electricity generation plan in 2030 indicates that 36 % of the energy generation share will be covered by solar and wind sources. Thus, a case study was initiated to model and compute the balance and consumption of electricity in three different scenarios: 2016, 2025, and 2030 using the Energy PLAN Model (EPM). Initially, the model was validated using the 2016 annual power-generated data to conduct the EPM analysis for two predictive scenarios. The EPM simulation analysis using EPM for 2016 showed that there was no significant excess power generated. Hence, the model’s results are in line with the actual 2016 output. Thus, the EPM was applied to analyze the role of energy storage in RE in Ethiopian grid systems. The results of the EPM simulation analysis showed there will be excess production of 402 /7963 MW average and maximum, respectively, in 2025. The excess power was dominant in all months except in the three rainy months of the year (June, July, and August). Consequently, based on the validated outcomes of EPM indicates, there is a good reason to think about other alternatives for the utilization of excess energy and storage of RE. Thus, from the scenarios and model results obtained, it is realistic to infer that; if the excess power is utilized with a storage mechanism that can stabilize the grid system; as a result, the extra RE generated can be exported to support the economy. Therefore, researchers must continue to upgrade the current and upcoming energy storage system to synchronize with RE potentials that can be generated from RE.

Keywords: renewable energy, storage, wind, energyplan

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Authors: Haitham J. M. Odeh

Abstract:

This paper introduced an analysis of the effect of tunneling near pile foundations. Accomplished by three-dimensional finite element modeling. The numerical simulation is conducted using Abaqus finite element software. By examining different Tunnel-pile scenarios. The paper presents the tunnel induced pile responses, Such as pile settlement, pile internal forces, and the comments made on changing the vertical and transversal location of the tunnel related to the piles, the study contains two pile-supported structure cases, single and a group of piles. A comprehensive comparison between real case study results and numerical simulation is presented. The results of the analysis reveal the critical and safe location of tunnel construction and the positive effect of a group of piles existing instead of single piles. Also, demonstrates the changes in pile responses by changing the tunnel location.

Keywords: pile responses, single pile, group of piles, pile-tunnel interaction

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Authors: Noman Shabbir, Roheel Nawaz, Muhammad N. Iqbal, Junaid Zafar

Abstract:

This paper focuses on the performance evaluation of routing protocols in WLAN based Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs). A comparative analysis of routing protocols such as Ad-hoc On-demand Distance Vector Routing System (AODV), Dynamic Source Routing (DSR) and Optimized Link State Routing (OLSR) is been made against different network parameters like network load, end to end delay and throughput in small, medium and large-scale sensor network scenarios to identify the best performing protocol. Simulation results indicate that OLSR gives minimum network load in all three scenarios while AODV gives the best throughput in small scale network but in medium and large scale networks, DSR is better. In terms of delay, OLSR is more efficient in small and medium scale network while AODV is slightly better in large networks.

Keywords: WLAN, WSN, AODV, DSR, OLSR

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Authors: Chang Liu, John Nash, Stephen D. Prior

Abstract:

This paper presents the design and implementation details of a complete unmanned aerial system (UAS) based on commercial-off-the-shelf (COTS) components, focusing on safety, security, search and rescue scenarios in GPS-denied environments. In particular, the aerial platform is capable of semi-autonomously navigating through extremely low-light, GPS-denied indoor environments based on onboard sensors only, including a downward-facing optical flow camera. Besides, an additional low-cost payload camera system is developed to stream both infrared video and visible light video to a ground station in real-time, for the purpose of detecting sign of life and hidden humans. The total cost of the complete system is estimated to be $1150, and the effectiveness of the system has been tested and validated in practical scenarios.

Keywords: unmanned aerial system, commercial-off-the-shelf, extremely low-light, GPS-denied, optical flow, infrared video

Procedia PDF Downloads 305