Search results for: European economic area
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 15711

Search results for: European economic area

3831 Land Cover, Land Surface Temperature, and Urban Heat Island Effects in Tropical Sub Saharan City of Accra

Authors: Eric Mensah

Abstract:

The effects of rapid urbanisation of tropical sub-Saharan developing cities on local and global climate are of great concern due to the negative impacts of Urban Heat Island (UHI) effects. The importance of urban parks, vegetative cover and forest reserves in these tropical cities have been undervalued with a rapid degradation and loss of these vegetative covers to urban developments which continue to cause an increase in daily mean temperatures and changes to local climatic conditions. Using Landsat data of the same months and period intervals, the spatial variations of land cover changes, temperature, and vegetation were examined to determine how vegetation improves local temperature and the effects of urbanisation on daily mean temperatures over the past 12 years. The remote sensing techniques of maximum likelihood supervised classification, land surface temperature retrieval technique, and normalised differential vegetation index techniques were used to analyse and create the land use land cover (LULC), land surface temperature (LST), and vegetation and non-vegetation cover maps respectively. Results from the study showed an increase in daily mean temperature by 0.80 °C as a result of rapid increase in urban area by 46.13 sq. km and loss of vegetative cover by 46.24 sq. km between 2005 and 2017. The LST map also shows the existence of UHI within the urban areas of Accra, the potential mitigating effects offered by the existence of forest and vegetative cover as demonstrated by the existence of cool islands around the Achimota ecological forest and University of Ghana botanical gardens areas.

Keywords: land surface temperature, climate, remote sensing, urbanisation

Procedia PDF Downloads 306
3830 Reinforced Concrete Foundation for Turbine Generators

Authors: Siddhartha Bhattacharya

Abstract:

Steam Turbine-Generators (STG) and Combustion Turbine-Generator (CTG) are used in almost all modern petrochemical, LNG plants and power plant facilities. The reinforced concrete table top foundations are required to support these high speed rotating heavy machineries and is one of the most critical and challenging structures on any industrial project. The paper illustrates through a practical example, the step by step procedure adopted in designing a table top foundation supported on piles for a steam turbine generator with operating speed of 60 Hz. Finite element model of a table top foundation is generated in ANSYS. Piles are modeled as springs-damper elements (COMBIN14). Basic loads are adopted in analysis and design of the foundation based on the vendor requirements, industry standards, and relevant ASCE & ACI codal provisions. Static serviceability checks are performed with the help of Misalignment Tolerance Matrix (MTM) method in which the percentage of misalignment at a given bearing due to displacement at another bearing is calculated and kept within the stipulated criteria by the vendor so that the machine rotor can sustain the stresses developed due to this misalignment. Dynamic serviceability checks are performed through modal and forced vibration analysis where the foundation is checked for resonance and allowable amplitudes, as stipulated by the machine manufacturer. Reinforced concrete design of the foundation is performed by calculating the axial force, bending moment and shear at each of the critical sections. These values are calculated through area integral of the element stresses at these critical locations. Design is done as per ACI 318-05.

Keywords: steam turbine generator foundation, finite element, static analysis, dynamic analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 277
3829 Nutritional Status of Rural Women in Bengaluru Rural District of Karnataka, India

Authors: A. M. Maruthesh, B. M. Anandakumar, O. Kumara, Akshatha Gombi, S. R. Rajini

Abstract:

Women play a vital role in ensuring proper development and growth of children. They also contribute significantly towards income generation, food preparation and health. Nutritional status reflects the health of a person and is influenced by the quality of foods eaten and the ability of the body to utilize these foods to meet its needs it is affected by various socio-economic factors including income, family size, occupation and educational status of the people. The study was undertaken on nutritional status of rural women in Heggadehalli of Doddaballapurtaluk and Venkathalli of Devanahallitaluk in Bengaluru rural district with the sample size of 200 respondents. The prevalence of symptoms of malnutrition in a community is in turn a reflection of dietary consumption of its members. Mean anthropometric measurement of rural women were 153.8 cm of height, 46.8 kg of weight. In comparison with the mean BMI standards, it was observed that 20 percent of women were under nourished, 64 percent of women were normal and 16 percent women were obese. In comparison with the mean waist/hip ratio with standards, it was observed that 84 percent were in normal category and 16 percent were obese. Education, land holding, income and age had significant positive association with anthropometric measurements of rural women. The deficient level of haemoglobin existed in 53 percent of rural women, low in 20 percent and only 27 percent had acceptable level. The occurrence of morbidity symptoms was higher in rural women, its illness reported among women in the study were pain in hands and legs, backache, headache, pain in abdomen, fever, weakness, cold and cough and acidity. This may be due to considerable amount of workload on women who spend 8 to 9 hours at work and after returning continue their day’s work at home also.

Keywords: anthrometry, body index, hemoglobin, nutrient deficiency, rural women, nutritional status

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3828 Rapid Assessment the Ability of Forest Vegetation in Kulonprogo to Store Carbon Using Multispectral Satellite Imagery and Vegetation Index

Authors: Ima Rahmawati, Nur Hafizul Kalam

Abstract:

Development of industrial and economic sectors in various countries very rapidly caused raising the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Greenhouse gases are dominated by carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) in the atmosphere that make the surface temperature of the earth always increase. The increasing gases caused by incomplete combustion of fossil fuels such as petroleum and coals and also high rate of deforestation. Yogyakarta Special Province which every year always become tourist destination, has a great potency in increasing of greenhouse gas emissions mainly from the incomplete combustion. One of effort to reduce the concentration of gases in the atmosphere is keeping and empowering the existing forests in the Province of Yogyakarta, especially forest in Kulonprogro is to be maintained the greenness so that it can absorb and store carbon maximally. Remote sensing technology can be used to determine the ability of forests to absorb carbon and it is connected to the density of vegetation. The purpose of this study is to determine the density of the biomass of forest vegetation and determine the ability of forests to store carbon through Photo-interpretation and Geographic Information System approach. Remote sensing imagery that used in this study is LANDSAT 8 OLI year 2015 recording. LANDSAT 8 OLI imagery has 30 meters spatial resolution for multispectral bands and it can give general overview the condition of the carbon stored from every density of existing vegetation. The method is the transformation of vegetation index combined with allometric calculation of field data then doing regression analysis. The results are model maps of density and capability level of forest vegetation in Kulonprogro, Yogyakarta in storing carbon.

Keywords: remote sensing, carbon, kulonprogo, forest vegetation, vegetation index

Procedia PDF Downloads 381
3827 The Role of Urban Development Patterns for Mitigating Extreme Urban Heat: The Case Study of Doha, Qatar

Authors: Yasuyo Makido, Vivek Shandas, David J. Sailor, M. Salim Ferwati

Abstract:

Mitigating extreme urban heat is challenging in a desert climate such as Doha, Qatar, since outdoor daytime temperature area often too high for the human body to tolerate. Recent studies demonstrate that cities in arid and semiarid areas can exhibit ‘urban cool islands’ - urban areas that are cooler than the surrounding desert. However, the variation of temperatures as a result of the time of day and factors leading to temperature change remain at the question. To address these questions, we examined the spatial and temporal variation of air temperature in Doha, Qatar by conducting multiple vehicle-base local temperature observations. We also employed three statistical approaches to model surface temperatures using relevant predictors: (1) Ordinary Least Squares, (2) Regression Tree Analysis and (3) Random Forest for three time periods. Although the most important determinant factors varied by day and time, distance to the coast was the significant determinant at midday. A 70%/30% holdout method was used to create a testing dataset to validate the results through Pearson’s correlation coefficient. The Pearson’s analysis suggests that the Random Forest model more accurately predicts the surface temperatures than the other methods. We conclude with recommendations about the types of development patterns that show the greatest potential for reducing extreme heat in air climates.

Keywords: desert cities, tree-structure regression model, urban cool Island, vehicle temperature traverse

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3826 Study and Analysis of Permeable Articulated Concrete Blocks Pavement: With Reference to Indian Context

Authors: Shrikant Charhate, Gayatri Deshpande

Abstract:

Permeable pavements have significant benefits like managing runoff, infiltration, and carrying traffic over conventional pavements in terms of sustainability and environmental impact. Some of the countries are using this technique, especially at locations where durability and other parameters are of importance in nature; however, sparse work has been done on this concept. In India, this is yet to be adopted. In this work, the progress in the characterization and development of Permeable Articulated Concrete Blocks (PACB) pavement design is described and discussed with reference to Indian conditions. The experimentation and in-depth analysis was carried out considering conditions like soil erosion, water logging, and dust which are significant challenges caused due to impermeability of pavement. Concrete blocks with size 16.5’’x 6.5’’x 7’’ consisting of arch shape (4’’) at beneath and ½” PVC holes for articulation were casted. These blocks were tested for flexural strength. The articulation process was done with nylon ropes forming series of concrete block system. The total spacing between the blocks was kept about 8 to 10% of total area. The hydraulic testing was carried out by placing the articulated blocks with the combination of layers of soil, geotextile, clean angular aggregate. This was done to see the percentage of seepage through the entire system. The experimental results showed that with the shape of concrete block the flexural strength achieved was beyond the permissible limit. Such blocks with the combination could be very useful innovation in Indian conditions and useful at various locations compared to the traditional blocks as an alternative for long term sustainability.

Keywords: connections, geotextile, permeable ACB, pavements, stone base

Procedia PDF Downloads 268
3825 Determining the Sources of Sediment at Different Areas of the Catchment: A Case Study of Welbedacht Reservoir, South Africa

Authors: D. T. Chabalala, J. M. Ndambuki, M. F. Ilunga

Abstract:

Sedimentation includes the processes of erosion, transportation, deposition, and the compaction of sediment. Sedimentation in reservoir results in a decrease in water storage capacity, downstream problems involving aggregation and degradation, blockage of the intake, and change in water quality. A study was conducted in Caledon River catchment in the upstream of Welbedacht Reservoir located in the South Eastern part of Free State province, South Africa. The aim of this research was to investigate and develop a model for an Integrated Catchment Modelling of Sedimentation processes and management for the Welbedacht reservoir. Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) was applied to determine sources of sediment at different areas of the catchment. The model has been also used to determine the impact of changes from management practice on erosion generation. The results revealed that the main sources of sediment in the watershed are cultivated land (273 ton per hectare), built up and forest (103.3 ton per hectare), and grassland, degraded land, mining and quarry (3.9, 9.8 and 5.3 ton per hectare) respectively. After application of soil conservation practices to developed Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation model, the results revealed that the total average annual soil loss in the catchment decreased by 76% and sediment yield from cultivated land decreased by 75%, while the built up and forest area decreased by 42% and 99% respectively. Thus, results of this study will be used by government departments in order to develop sustainable policies.

Keywords: Welbedacht reservoir, sedimentation, RUSLE, Caledon River

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3824 Analysis of Earthquake Potential and Shock Level Scenarios in South Sulawesi

Authors: Takhul Bakhtiar

Abstract:

In South Sulawesi Province, there is an active Walanae Fault causing this area to frequently experience earthquakes. This study aims to determine the level of seismicity of the earthquake in order to obtain the potential for earthquakes in the future. The estimation of the potential for earthquakes is then made a scenario model determine the estimated level of shocks as an effort to mitigate earthquake disasters in the region. The method used in this study is the Gutenberg Richter Method through the statistical likelihood approach. This study used earthquake data in the South Sulawesi region in 1972 - 2022. The research location is located at the coordinates of 3.5° – 5.5° South Latitude and 119.5° – 120.5° East Longitude and divided into two segments, namely the northern segment at the coordinates of 3.5° – 4.5° South Latitude and 119,5° – 120,5° East Longitude then the southern segment with coordinates of 4.5° – 5.5° South Latitude and 119,5° – 120.5° East Longitude. This study uses earthquake parameters with a magnitude > 1 and a depth < 50 km. The results of the analysis show that the potential for earthquakes in the next ten years with a magnitude of M = 7 in the northern segment is estimated at 98.81% with an estimated shock level of VI-VII MMI around the cities of Pare-Pare, Barru, Pinrang and Soppeng then IV - V MMI in the cities of Bulukumba, Selayar, Makassar and Gowa. In the southern segment, the potential for earthquakes in the next ten years with a magnitude of M = 7 is estimated at 32.89% with an estimated VI-VII MMI shock level in the cities of Bulukumba, Selayar, Makassar and Gowa, then III-IV MMI around the cities of Pare-Pare, Barru, Pinrang and Soppeng.

Keywords: Gutenberg Richter, likelihood method, seismicity, shakemap and MMI scale

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3823 Gross Anatomical and Ultra Structural Microscopic Studies on the Nose of the Dromedary Camel (Camelus Dromederius)

Authors: Mahmoud S Gewaily, Atif Hasan, Mohamed Kassab, Ali A. Mansour

Abstract:

The current study was carried out on the nose of seventeenth healthy adult camels. Specimens were collected from slaughter houses then fixed, dissected and photographed. For ultra structural studies, fresh samples were fixed in different fixatives and prepared for examination by light, scanning and electron microscopes. Grossly, nose of the camel had narrow nostrils, slit like in outline. In the nasal cavity, the nasal vestibule was narrow and has scanty dorsal and lateral cartilaginous support. The Nasal conchae (dorsal, middle and ventral) enclosed the dorsal, middle conchal sinuses and no ventral conchal sinus; instead there was recess and bull a. The ethmoidal conchae (8 in number) were noticeably fewer than in the other domestic animals like ox and horse. The olfactory mucosa was restricted to a small area covering the caudal parts of the ethmoidal conchae. The lining epithelium of the nasal cavity changes gradually from stratified squamous epithelium in the nasal vestibule to pseudo stratified columnar ciliated in the respiratory region and finally, olfactory epithelium covering the caudal parts of the ethmoidal conchae. In the dromedary camel, a special feature was the presence of dense and relatively long hair covering the nostrils and the rostral part of the nasal vestibule. In conclusion, the anatomical features of the nose of the dromedary camel, especially in its rostral parts enable this animal to breathe properly in the sandy dry weather.

Keywords: camel nose, anatomy, dromedary camel, nasal vestibule

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3822 Wear Resistance and Thermal Stability of Tungsten Boride Layers Deposited by Magnetron Sputtering

Authors: Justyna Chrzanowska, Jacek Hoffman, Dariusz Garbiec, Łukasz Kurpaska, Piotr Denis, Tomasz Moscicki, Zygmunt Szymanski

Abstract:

Tungsten and boron compounds belong to the group of superhard materials and its hardness could exceed 40 GPa. In this study, the properties of the tungsten boride (WB) layers deposited in magnetron sputtering process are investigated. The sputtering process occurred from specially prepared targets that were composed of boron and tungsten mixed in molar ratio of 2.5 or 4.5 and sintered in spark plasma sintering process. WB layers were deposited on silicon (100) and stainless steel 304 substrates at room temperature (RT) or in 570 °C. Layers deposited in RT and in elevated temperature varied considerably. Layers deposited in RT are amorphous and have low adhesion. In contrast, the layers deposited in 570 °C are crystalline and have good adhesion. All deposited layers have a hardness about 40 GPa. Moreover, the friction coefficient of crystalline layers is 0.22 and wear rate is about 0.67•10-6 mm3N-1m-1. After material characterization the WB layers were annealed in argon atmosphere in 1000 °C for 1 hour. On the basis of X-Ray Diffraction analysis, it has been noted that the crystalline layers are thermally stable and do not change their phase composition, whereas the amorphous layers change their phase composition. Moreover, after annealing, on the surface of WB layers some cracks were observed. It is probably connected with the differences of the thermal expansion between the layer and the substrate. Despite of the presence of cracks, the wear resistance of annealed layers is still higher than the wear resistance of uncoated substrate. The analysis of the structure and properties of tungsten boride layers lead to the discussion about the application area of this material.

Keywords: hard coatings, hard materials, magnetron sputtering, mechanical properties, tungsten boride

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3821 Numerical Analysis for Soil Compaction and Plastic Points Extension in Pile Drivability

Authors: Omid Tavasoli, Mahmoud Ghazavi

Abstract:

A numerical analysis of drivability of piles in different geometry is presented. In this paper, a three-dimensional finite difference analysis for plastic point extension and soil compaction in the effect of pile driving is analyzed. Four pile configurations such as cylindrical pile, fully tapered pile, T-C pile consists of a top tapered segment and a lower cylindrical segment and C-T pile has a top cylindrical part followed by a tapered part are investigated. All piles which driven up to a total penetration depth of 16 m have the same length with equivalent surface area and approximately with identical material volumes. An idealization for pile-soil system in pile driving is considered for this approach. A linear elastic material is assumed to model the vertical pile behaviors and the soil obeys the elasto-plastic constitutive low and its failure is controlled by the Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion. A slip which occurred at the pile-soil contact surfaces along the shaft and the toe in pile driving procedures is simulated with interface elements. All initial and boundary conditions are the same in all analyses. Quiet boundaries are used to prevent wave reflection in the lateral and vertical directions for the soil. The results obtained from numerical analyses were compared with available other numerical data and laboratory tests, indicating a satisfactory agreement. It will be shown that with increasing the angle of taper, the permanent piles toe settlement increase and therefore, the extension of plastic points increase. These are interesting phenomena in pile driving and are on the safe side for driven piles.

Keywords: pile driving, finite difference method, non-uniform piles, pile geometry, pile set, plastic points, soil compaction

Procedia PDF Downloads 466
3820 The Role of Privatization on the Formulation of Productive Supply Chain: The Case of Ethiopian Firms

Authors: Merhawit Fisseha Gebremariam, Yohannes Yebabe Tesfay

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This study focuses on the formulation of a sustainable, effective, and efficient supply chain strategy framework that will enable Ethiopian privatized firms. The study examined the role of privatization in productive sourcing, production, and delivery to Ethiopian firm’s performances. To analyze our hypothesis, the authors applied the concepts of Key Performance Indicator (KPI), strategic outsourcing, purchasing portfolio analysis, and Porter's marketing analysis. The authors selected ten privatized companies and compared their financial, market expansion, and sustainability performances. The Chi-Square Test showed that at the 5% level of significance, privatization and outsourcing activities can assist the business performances of Ethiopian firms in terms of product promotion and new market expansion. At the 5% level of significance, the independent t-test result showed that firms that were privatized by Ethiopian investors showed stronger financial performance than those that were privatized by foreign investors. Furthermore, it is better if Ethiopian firms apply both cost leadership and differentiated strategy to enhance thriving in their business area. Ethiopian firms need to implement the supply chain operations reference (SCOR) model for an exclusive framework that supports communication links the supply chain partners, and enhances productivity. The government of Ethiopia should be aware that the privatization of firms by Ethiopian investors will strengthen the economy. Otherwise, the privatization process will be risky for the country, and therefore, the government of Ethiopia should stop doing those activities.

Keywords: correlation analysis, market strategies, KPIs, privatization, risk and Ethiopia

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3819 Towards Dynamic Estimation of Residential Building Energy Consumption in Germany: Leveraging Machine Learning and Public Data from England and Wales

Authors: Philipp Sommer, Amgad Agoub

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The construction sector significantly impacts global CO₂ emissions, particularly through the energy usage of residential buildings. To address this, various governments, including Germany's, are focusing on reducing emissions via sustainable refurbishment initiatives. This study examines the application of machine learning (ML) to estimate energy demands dynamically in residential buildings and enhance the potential for large-scale sustainable refurbishment. A major challenge in Germany is the lack of extensive publicly labeled datasets for energy performance, as energy performance certificates, which provide critical data on building-specific energy requirements and consumption, are not available for all buildings or require on-site inspections. Conversely, England and other countries in the European Union (EU) have rich public datasets, providing a viable alternative for analysis. This research adapts insights from these English datasets to the German context by developing a comprehensive data schema and calibration dataset capable of predicting building energy demand effectively. The study proposes a minimal feature set, determined through feature importance analysis, to optimize the ML model. Findings indicate that ML significantly improves the scalability and accuracy of energy demand forecasts, supporting more effective emissions reduction strategies in the construction industry. Integrating energy performance certificates into municipal heat planning in Germany highlights the transformative impact of data-driven approaches on environmental sustainability. The goal is to identify and utilize key features from open data sources that significantly influence energy demand, creating an efficient forecasting model. Using Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) and data from energy performance certificates, effective features such as building type, year of construction, living space, insulation level, and building materials were incorporated. These were supplemented by data derived from descriptions of roofs, walls, windows, and floors, integrated into three datasets. The emphasis was on features accessible via remote sensing, which, along with other correlated characteristics, greatly improved the model's accuracy. The model was further validated using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values and aggregated feature importance, which quantified the effects of individual features on the predictions. The refined model using remote sensing data showed a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.64 and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.12, indicating predictions based on efficiency class 1-100 (G-A) may deviate by 4.12 points. This R² increased to 0.84 with the inclusion of more samples, with wall type emerging as the most predictive feature. After optimizing and incorporating related features like estimated primary energy consumption, the R² score for the training and test set reached 0.94, demonstrating good generalization. The study concludes that ML models significantly improve prediction accuracy over traditional methods, illustrating the potential of ML in enhancing energy efficiency analysis and planning. This supports better decision-making for energy optimization and highlights the benefits of developing and refining data schemas using open data to bolster sustainability in the building sector. The study underscores the importance of supporting open data initiatives to collect similar features and support the creation of comparable models in Germany, enhancing the outlook for environmental sustainability.

Keywords: machine learning, remote sensing, residential building, energy performance certificates, data-driven, heat planning

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3818 Questioning the Sustainability in Development: The Resilience of Local Variety of Rice in the Changing Dayak Community of Central Kalimantan, Indonesia

Authors: Semiarto Aji Purwanto, Sutji Shinto

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Over a quarter century, the idea of sustainable development has become a global discussion. In Indonesia, more than five decades since the development of the country took priority over any other matter, a discussion on the need of development is still an intriguing. Far from the enthusiasm of development programs run by the Indonesian government since 1967, the Dayak community in the interior of Kalimantan tropical forest was significantly abandoned from the changes. There were not many programs for the interior because the focus of development mostly was in Java island. Consequently, the Dayak live their life as shifting cultivator that has been practiced for centuries. Our ethnographic observation conducted in April-July 2016, found that today, they still maintain the knowledge and keeping the existence of local variety of rice. While in Java, these varieties have been replaced by more-productive-and-resistant-to-pest varieties, the Dayak still maintain more than 60s varieties. From the biodiversity’s perspective, it is a delightful news; while from the cultural perspective, the persistence of their custom regarding to the practice of traditional cultivation is fascinating as well. The local knowledge of agriculture is well conserved and practice daily. It is revealed that the resilience of those rice varieties is related to the local social structure since the distribution of each variety usually limited to the particular clans in the community. While experiencing the lack of programs for village development, the community has maintained the local leadership and its government structure at the village level. The paper will explore the effect of how a neglected area, which was disregarded by development program, sustains their culture and biodiversity. We would like to discuss the concept of sustainability whether it needed for the development programs, for the changes into a modern civilisation, or for the sake of the local to survive.

Keywords: sustainable development, local knowledge, rice, resilience, Kalimantan, Indonesia

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3817 Artificial intelligence and Law

Authors: Mehrnoosh Abouzari, Shahrokh Shahraei

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With the development of artificial intelligence in the present age, intelligent machines and systems have proven their actual and potential capabilities and are mindful of increasing their presence in various fields of human life in the fields of industry, financial transactions, marketing, manufacturing, service affairs, politics, economics and various branches of the humanities .Therefore, despite the conservatism and prudence of law enforcement, the traces of artificial intelligence can be seen in various areas of law. Including judicial robotics capability estimation, intelligent judicial decision making system, intelligent defender and attorney strategy adjustment, dissemination and regulation of different and scattered laws in each case to achieve judicial coherence and reduce opinion, reduce prolonged hearing and discontent compared to the current legal system with designing rule-based systems, case-based, knowledge-based systems, etc. are efforts to apply AI in law. In this article, we will identify the ways in which AI is applied in its laws and regulations, identify the dominant concerns in this area and outline the relationship between these two areas in order to answer the question of how artificial intelligence can be used in different areas of law and what the implications of this application will be. The authors believe that the use of artificial intelligence in the three areas of legislative, judiciary and executive power can be very effective in governments' decisions and smart governance, and helping to reach smart communities across human and geographical boundaries that humanity's long-held dream of achieving is a global village free of violence and personalization and human error. Therefore, in this article, we are going to analyze the dimensions of how to use artificial intelligence in the three legislative, judicial and executive branches of government in order to realize its application.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, law, intelligent system, judge

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3816 Prioritization Assessment of Housing Development Risk Factors: A Fuzzy Hierarchical Process-Based Approach

Authors: Yusuf Garba Baba

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The construction industry and housing subsector are fraught with risks that have the potential of negatively impacting on the achievement of project objectives. The success or otherwise of most construction projects depends to large extent on how well these risks have been managed. The recent paradigm shift by the subsector to use of formal risk management approach in contrast to hitherto developed rules of thumb means that risks must not only be identified but also properly assessed and responded to in a systematic manner. The study focused on identifying risks associated with housing development projects and prioritisation assessment of the identified risks in order to provide basis for informed decision. The study used a three-step identification framework: review of literature for similar projects, expert consultation and questionnaire based survey to identify potential risk factors. Delphi survey method was employed in carrying out the relative prioritization assessment of the risks factors using computer-based Analytical Hierarchical Process (AHP) software. The results show that 19 out of the 50 risks significantly impact on housing development projects. The study concludes that although significant numbers of risk factors have been identified as having relevance and impacting to housing construction projects, economic risk group and, in particular, ‘changes in demand for houses’ is prioritised by most developers as posing a threat to the achievement of their housing development objectives. Unless these risks are carefully managed, their effects will continue to impede success in these projects. The study recommends the adoption and use of the combination of multi-technique identification framework and AHP prioritization assessment methodology as a suitable model for the assessment of risks in housing development projects.

Keywords: risk management, risk identification, risk analysis, analytic hierarchical process

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3815 Investment Trend Analysis of Dhaka Stock Exchange: A Comparative Study

Authors: Azaz Zaman, Mirazur Rahman

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Capital market is a crucial financial market place where companies and the government can raise long-term funds and, at the same time, investors get the opportunity to invest in the listed companies. Capital markets play a vital role not only in shifting the funds from surplus entity to deficit for investment, but also in the overall economic development of any developing country like Bangladesh. Being the first and biggest capital market of Bangladesh, Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) is the prime bourse of the country. The differences in the investment preference— among three broad categories of investors in DSE including individual investors, institutional investors, and government— are easily observed. Authors of this article have used five categories of investors such as sponsors or directors of the company, institutional investors, foreign investors, government, and the general public in order to present a comparative analysis of their investment patterns. Obtaining data on the percentage of investment by these five types of investors in different sectors from the DSE website, this study aims to analyze the sector-wise investment preference of these investors using August 2018 data. The study has found that the sponsors or directors of the company have the highest percentage of investment in the textile industry which is close to 16%. The Bangladesh government, as an investor, has the highest percentage of investment in the fuel & power sector, approximately 32%. It has also found that the mutual funds' sector is mostly financed by institutional investors, nearly 28%. Foreign investors have their most investments in the banking sector, which is close to 22%. It has also revealed that the textile sector is mostly financed by the general public, close to 17%. Nevertheless, general public, surprisingly, has the lowest percentage of investment in the telecommunication sector, which is 0.10%.

Keywords: stock market investment, Dhaka stock exchange, capital market, Bangladesh

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3814 Cirrhosis Mortality Prediction as Classification using Frequent Subgraph Mining

Authors: Abdolghani Ebrahimi, Diego Klabjan, Chenxi Ge, Daniela Ladner, Parker Stride

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In this work, we use machine learning and novel data analysis techniques to predict the one-year mortality of cirrhotic patients. Data from 2,322 patients with liver cirrhosis are collected at a single medical center. Different machine learning models are applied to predict one-year mortality. A comprehensive feature space including demographic information, comorbidity, clinical procedure and laboratory tests is being analyzed. A temporal pattern mining technic called Frequent Subgraph Mining (FSM) is being used. Model for End-stage liver disease (MELD) prediction of mortality is used as a comparator. All of our models statistically significantly outperform the MELD-score model and show an average 10% improvement of the area under the curve (AUC). The FSM technic itself does not improve the model significantly, but FSM, together with a machine learning technique called an ensemble, further improves the model performance. With the abundance of data available in healthcare through electronic health records (EHR), existing predictive models can be refined to identify and treat patients at risk for higher mortality. However, due to the sparsity of the temporal information needed by FSM, the FSM model does not yield significant improvements. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work to apply modern machine learning algorithms and data analysis methods on predicting one-year mortality of cirrhotic patients and builds a model that predicts one-year mortality significantly more accurate than the MELD score. We have also tested the potential of FSM and provided a new perspective of the importance of clinical features.

Keywords: machine learning, liver cirrhosis, subgraph mining, supervised learning

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3813 Blood Analysis of Diarrheal Calves Using Portable Blood Analyzer: Analysis of Calves by Age

Authors: Kwangman Park, Jinhee Kang, Suhee Kim, Dohyeon Yu, Kyoungseong Choi, Jinho Park

Abstract:

Statement of the Problem: Diarrhea is a major cause of death in young calves. This causes great economic damage to the livestock industry. These diarrhea cause dehydration, decrease blood flow, lower the pH and degrade enzyme function. In the past, serum screening was not possible in the field. However, now with the spread of portable serum testing devices, it is now possible to conduct tests directly on field. Thus, accurate serological changes can be identified and used in the field of large animals. Methodology and Theoretical Orientation: The test groups were calves from 1 to 44 days old. The status of the feces was divided into four grade to determine the severity of diarrhea (grade 0,1,2,3). Grade 0, 1 is considered to have no diarrhea. Grade 2, 3 is considered to diarrhea positive group. One or more viruses were detected in this group. Diarrhea negasitive group consisted of 57 calves (Asan=30, Samrye=27). Diarrhea positive group consisted of 34 calves (Kimje=27, Geochang=7). The feces of all calves were analyzed by PCR Test. Blood sample was measured using an automatic blood analyzer(i-STAT, Abbott inc. Illinois, US). Calves were divided into 3 groups according to age. Group 1 is 1 to 14 days old. Group 2 is 15 to 28 days old. Group 3 is more than 28 days old. Findings: Diarrhea caused an increase in HCT due to dehydration. The difference from normal was highest in 15 to 28 days old (p < 0.01). At all ages, bicarbonate decreased compared to normal, and therefore pH decreased. Similar to HCT, the largest difference was observed between 15 and 28 days (p < 0.01). The pCO₂ decreases to compensate for the decrease in pH. Conclusion and Significance: At all ages, HCT increases, and bicarbonate, pH, and pCO₂ decrease in diarrhea calves. The calf from 15 days to 28 days shows the most difference from normal. Over 28 days of age, weight gain and homeostasis ability increase, diarrhea is seen in the stool, there are fewer hematologic changes than groups below 28 days of age.

Keywords: calves, diarrhea, hematological changes, i-STAT

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3812 Finite Element Approach to Evaluate Time Dependent Shear Behavior of Connections in Hybrid Steel-PC Girder under Sustained Loading

Authors: Mohammad Najmol Haque, Takeshi Maki, Jun Sasaki

Abstract:

Headed stud shear connections are widely used in the junction or embedded zone of hybrid girder to achieve whole composite action with continuity that can sustain steel-concrete interfacial tensile and shear forces. In Japan, Japan Road Association (JRA) specifications are used for hybrid girder design that utilizes very low level of stud capacity than those of American Institute of Steel Construction (AISC) specifications, Japan Society of Civil Engineers (JSCE) specifications and EURO code. As low design shear strength is considered in design of connections, the time dependent shear behavior due to sustained external loading is not considered, even not fully studied. In this study, a finite element approach was used to evaluate the time dependent shear behavior for headed studs used as connections at the junction. This study clarified, how the sustained loading distinctively impacted on changing the interfacial shear of connections with time which was sensitive to lodging history, positions of flanges, neighboring studs, position of prestress bar and reinforcing bar, concrete strength, etc. and also identified a shear influence area. Stud strength was also confirmed through pushout tests. The outcome obtained from the study may provide an important basis and reference data in designing connections of hybrid girders with enhanced stud capacity with due consideration of their long-term shear behavior.

Keywords: finite element, hybrid girder, shear connections, sustained loading, time dependent behavior

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3811 Analyzing the Results of Buildings Energy Audit by Using Grey Set Theory

Authors: Tooraj Karimi, Mohammadreza Sadeghi Moghadam

Abstract:

Grey set theory has the advantage of using fewer data to analyze many factors, and it is therefore more appropriate for system study rather than traditional statistical regression which require massive data, normal distribution in the data and few variant factors. So, in this paper grey clustering and entropy of coefficient vector of grey evaluations are used to analyze energy consumption in buildings of the Oil Ministry in Tehran. In fact, this article intends to analyze the results of energy audit reports and defines most favorable characteristics of system, which is energy consumption of buildings, and most favorable factors affecting these characteristics in order to modify and improve them. According to the results of the model, ‘the real Building Load Coefficient’ has been selected as the most important system characteristic and ‘uncontrolled area of the building’ has been diagnosed as the most favorable factor which has the greatest effect on energy consumption of building. Grey clustering in this study has been used for two purposes: First, all the variables of building relate to energy audit cluster in two main groups of indicators and the number of variables is reduced. Second, grey clustering with variable weights has been used to classify all buildings in three categories named ‘no standard deviation’, ‘low standard deviation’ and ‘non- standard’. Entropy of coefficient vector of Grey evaluations is calculated to investigate greyness of results. It shows that among the 38 buildings surveyed in terms of energy consumption, 3 cases are in standard group, 24 cases are in ‘low standard deviation’ group and 11 buildings are completely non-standard. In addition, clustering greyness of 13 buildings is less than 0.5 and average uncertainly of clustering results is 66%.

Keywords: energy audit, grey set theory, grey incidence matrixes, grey clustering, Iran oil ministry

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3810 Formal Stress Management Teaching Incorporated into the First Year of a Doctor's Practice: A Career Transition Study of British Foundation Year 1 Doctors

Authors: Edward Ridyard, Vinary Varadarajan

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Background and Aims: The first year as a doctor in any country represents a major career transition in any physician's life. During this period, many physicians concentrate on obtaining clinical skills but may not obtain the important skills necessary to cope with stress. In this study we elucidate stress levels amongst FY1 doctors regarding the transitioning into specialty career choices, working in the NHS and anxiety about future career success. Methods: A prospective single blinded analysis of Foundation Year one (FY1) trainees using a non-mandatory online questionnaire was distributed. No exclusion criteria were applied. The only inclusion criteria was the doctor was in a full-time FY1 post and this was their first job in the UK. A total of n= 22 doctors were included in the study. After data collection, statistical analysis using chi-squared testing was applied. Results: The large majority of FY1 doctors (72.7%) already knew what specialty they wished to pursue (p=0.0001). With regards to their future careers 45.5% of FY1 doctors stated "above average" stress levels. The majority of FY1 doctors (64.3%) stated their stress levels working in the NHS were either "above average" or "high". Finally, 81.8% of respondents know colleagues who have been put off from pursuing specialties due to the stress of competition. Conclusions: A large majority of FY1 doctors already know at this early stage what area they would like to specialise in. With this in mind, a large proportion have above "average" levels of stress with regards to securing this future career path. The most worrying finding is that 64.3% of FY1s stated they had "above average" or "high" stress levels working in the NHS. We therefore recommend formal stress management education to be incorporated into the foundation programme curriculum.

Keywords: stress, anxiety, junior doctor, education

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3809 Positivity of Pathogenic Leptospira in Pigs from Rural Communities on the Coast of Ecuador

Authors: Veronica Barragan, Ligia Luna, Maria Patricia Zambrano, Carlos Bulnes, Eduardo Diaz, Talima Pearson

Abstract:

Leptospirosis impacts animal production and is responsible for important economic losses in the pig industry. Infection is associated with reproductive failures that lead to abortions, stillbirth, and perinatal mortality. The leptospira serogroups that have been traditionally linked to disease in pigs are Pomona, Australis, and Tarassovi. Unfortunately, knowledge about pig leptospirosis is biased towards infection in large-scale commercial farms from developed countries, where exposure is usually limited to host-specific serotypes. The aim of our study is to describe leptospirosis in pigs from rural communities located in the coast of Ecuador-South America, where leptospirosis is endemic. A particularity of these pigs is that, because they are usually raised in the backyard of their owner’s houses, exposure to other leptospira excreted by other animals is likely to occur. Therefore, we collected 420 kidney samples from pigs sacrificed at a local slaughterhouse, and Leptospira positivity was tested in all samples by amplifying the Lipl32 gen. Our results show pathogenic Leptospira positivity in 19.3% (81/420) of pigs. Microaglutination test was performed in 60 PCR positive samples with titers >1:100 in 17 pigs, titers of 1:50 in 28 pigs, and no MAT titers in 15 pigs even though Leptospira DNA was found in their kidneys. Interestingly, reacting serovars were very diverse, with 18.3% of pig sera reacting with two or more serovars. Additionally, serovar Canicola was found in 16.7% of pigs followed by Tarassovi (10%), Australis (6.7%), Pyogenes (5%), Icterohaemorrhageae (1.7%), and Grippotyphosa (1.7%). It is also important to highlight that most of the analyzed animals came from small-scale farms where pigs may be exposed to the pathogen by exposure to other domestic and peridomestic animals such as rats, dogs, horses, donkeys, and even wildlife. This would explain the finding of non-pig adapted Leptospira serovars such as Canicola, which is commonly reported in dogs.

Keywords: Leptospira, Lipl32, peridomestic, pig, serovar

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3808 Developing a Green Strategic Management Model with regarding HSE-MS

Authors: Amin Padash, Gholam Reza Nabi Bid Hendi, Hassan Hoveidi

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Purpose: The aim of this research is developing a model for green management based on Health, Safety and Environmental Management System. An HSE-MS can be a powerful tool for organizations to both improve their environmental, health and safety performance, and enhance their business efficiency to green management. Model: The model is developed in this study can be used for industries as guidelines for implementing green management issue by considering Health, Safety and Environmental Management System. Case Study: The Pars Special Economic / Energy Zone Organization on behalf of Iran’s Petroleum Ministry and National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) manages and develops the South and North oil and gas fields in the region. Methodology: This research according to objective is applied and based on implementing is descriptive and also prescription. We used technique MCDM (Multiple Criteria Decision-Making) for determining the priorities of the factors. Based on process approach the model consists of the following steps and components: first factors involved in green issues are determined. Based on them a framework is considered. Then with using MCDM (Multiple Criteria Decision-Making) algorithms (TOPSIS) the priority of basic variables are determined. The authors believe that the proposed model and results of this research can aid industries managers to implement green subjects according to Health, Safety and Environmental Management System in a more efficient and effective manner. Finding and conclusion: Basic factors involved in green issues and their weights can be the main finding. Model and relation between factors are the other finding of this research. The case is considered Petrochemical Company for promoting the system of ecological industry thinking.

Keywords: Fuzzy-AHP method , green management, health, safety and environmental management system, MCDM technique, TOPSIS

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3807 Orientia Tsutsugamushi an Emerging Etiology of Acute Encephalitis Syndrome in Northern Part of India

Authors: Amita Jain, Shantanu Prakash, Suruchi Shukla

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Introduction: Acute encephalitis syndrome (AES) is a complex multi etiology syndrome posing a great public health problem in the northern part of India. Japanese encephalitis (JE) virus is an established etiology of AES in this region. Recently, Scrub typhus (ST) is being recognized as an emerging aetiology of AES in JE endemic belt. This study was conducted to establish the direct evidence of Central nervous system invasion by Orientia tsutsugamushi leading to AES. Methodology: A total of 849 cases with clinical diagnosis of AES were enrolled from six districts (Deoria and its adjoining area) of the traditional north Indian Japanese encephalitis (JE) belt. Serum and Cerebrospinal fluid samples were collected and tested for major agent causing acute encephalitis. AES cases either positive for anti-ST IgM antibodies or negative for all tested etiologies were investigated for ST-DNA by real-time PCR. Results: Of these 505 cases, 250 patients were laboratory confirmed for O. tsutsugamushi infection either by anti-ST IgM antibodies positivity (n=206) on serum sample or by ST-DNA detection by real-time PCR assay on CSF sample (n=2) or by both (n=42).Total 29 isolate could be sequenced for 56KDa gene. Conclusion: All the strains were found to cluster with Gilliam strains. The majority of the isolates showed a 97–99% sequence similarity with Thailand and Cambodian strains. Gilliam strain of O.tsusugamushi is an emerging as one of the major aetiologies leading to AES in northern part of India.

Keywords: acute encephalitis syndrome, O. tsutsugamushi, Gilliam strain, North India, cerebrospinal fluid

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3806 The Relevance of Psychology in South Africa: A Content Analysis of Psychology Masters Theses from 1998 to 2017

Authors: Elron Fouten

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Recently, debates surrounding the social relevance of psychology in South Africa have focussed on how the growing neoliberal rationality within academia has again resulted in the discipline catering to the needs of powerful social groupings to protect its own economic interests, rather than producing socially relevant knowledge. Consequently, this study aimed to conduct a content analysis of the recent research output of psychology masters students, to establish whether it has produced research that addresses local and national psychosocial issues and as such deemed socially relevant knowledge. The study sampled clinical, counselling, and research psychology masters theses from 16 South African universities submitted between 1998 and 2017. Overall, 2001 theses were sampled, which were analysed using qualitative content analysis predominantly based on the descriptive categories identified in similar studies using published journal articles. Results indicated that empirical qualitative theses, using systems-oriented theory and post-modern frameworks were most prevalent. Further, traditional topics within psychology had relatively more weighting compared to more social topics. Although a significant number of theses recruited participants from working-class or poor backgrounds, there was an overreliance on participants from urban areas located in some of the country’s wealthiest provinces. Despite a strong adult-centric focus, trends regarding participants’ race and gender roughly resembled current population demographics. Overall, the results indicate that psychology in South Africa, at least at university-level, is to some extent trying to engage with national psychosocial concerns. However, there are still several key areas which need to be addressed to ensure the continued social relevance of the discipline.

Keywords: adult-centric, content analysis, relevance, psychosocial

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3805 US-China Competition in South China Sea and International Law

Authors: Mubashra Shaheen

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The conflict over the South China Sea (SCS) is a complex imbroglio spanning over several territorial and maritime claims involving two major island groups, the Paracels and the Spratlys. It has become a major source of geopolitical competition between the United States and China. The study's overall objective is to understand China's land reclamations and assertive behavior in the South China Sea, which lies between both the Western Pacific and the Indian Ocean. Over half of global commerce passes through these waterways, which host a great amount of marine life and hydrocarbon deposits. China's sand-filling and island-building strategy in the South China Sea is motivated by its goal of privatizing all these riches as well as the routes. It would raise China to the pinnacle of world power status as well as allow it to threaten the dominance of the U.S. The study will examine China's assertive behavior and modernization plans as well as the United States' quest for supremacy through the lens of realists. While using a qualitative method of analysis, the study will examine China's nine-dash line claims and Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs), UNCLOS, and U.S.-China divergence over international law considerations to pacify the tensions in the South China Sea. This paper is intended to explore the possible answers to the following questions: (1) Why does China’s rise necessitate the US's efforts to contain and encircle it through the lending of a hand to strategic partners and allies in the South China Sea? (2) Why South China Sea dispute is so complex imbroglio? (3) What are US-China international law considerations regarding the South China Sea? The study will further follow the bellow research procedure: 1: Comparative Legal Method: This method simply chalk-outs the follow of few steps that discarnate the positive and negative effects of the great power competitions. 2: Conceptualization: The conceptualization of the policies of containment defines and differentiates two different problems behind the persuasive means of hegemony and dominance in the strategic milieu.

Keywords: us, china, south china sea, unclos

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3804 Enhancement in Bactericidal Activity of Hydantoin Based Microsphere from Smooth to Rough

Authors: Rajani Kant Rai, Jayakrishnan Athipet

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There have been several attempts to prepare polymers with antimicrobial properties by doping with various N-halamines. Hydantoins (Cyclic N-halamine) is of importance due to their stability rechargeable chloroamide function, broad-spectrum anti-microbial action and ability to prevent resistance to the organisms. Polymerizable hydantoins are synthesized by tethering vinyl moieties to 5,5,-dialkyl hydantoin sacrificing the imide hydrogen in the molecule thereby restricting the halogen capture only to the amide nitrogen that results in compromised antibacterial activity. In order to increase the activity of the antimicrobial polymer, we have developed a scheme to maximize the attachment of chlorine to the amide and the imide moieties of hydantoin. Vinyl hydantoin monomer, (Z)-5-(4-((3-methylbuta-1,3-dien-2-yl)oxy)benzylidene)imidazolidine-2,4-dione (MBBID) was synthesized and copolymerized with a commercially available monomer, methyl methacrylate, by free radical polymerization. The antimicrobial activity of hydantoin is strongly dependent on their surface area and hence their microbial activity increases when incorporated in microspheres or nanoparticles as compared to their bulk counterpart. In this regard, smooth and rough surface microsphere of the vinyl monomer (MBBID) with commercial monomer was synthesized. The oxidative chlorine content of the copolymer ranged from 1.5 to 2.45 %. Further, to demonstrate the water purification potential, the thin column was packed with smooth or rough microspheres and challenged with simulated contaminated water that exhibited 6 log kill (total kill) of the bacteria in 20 minutes of exposure with smooth (25 mg/ml) and rough microsphere (15.0 mg/ml).

Keywords: cyclic N-halamine, vinyl hydantoin monomer, rough surface microsphere, simulated contaminated water

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3803 Collapsed World Heritage Site: Supply Chain Effect: Case Study of Monument in Kathmandu Valley after the Devastating Earthquake in Nepal

Authors: Rajaram Mahat, Roshan Khadka

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Nepal has remained a land of diverse people and culture consisting more than hundred ethnic and caste groups with 92 different languages. Each ethnic and cast group have their own common culture. Kathmandu, the capital city of Nepal is one of the multi-ethnic, lingual and cultural ancient places. Dozens of monuments with the history of more than thousand years are located in Kathmandu Valley. More or less all of the heritage site have been affected by devastating earthquake in April and May 2015. This study shows the most popular tourist and pilgrim’s destination like Kathmandu Darbar Square, Bhaktapur Darbarsquare, Patan Darbar Square, Swayambhunath temple complex, Dharahara Tower, Pasupatinath Hindu Religious Complex etc. have been massively destroyed. This paper analyses the socio economic consequence to the community people of world heritage site after devastating earthquake in Kathmandu Valley. Initial findings indicate that domestic and international current tourists flow have decreased by 41% and average 23% of local craft shop, curio shop, hotel, restaurant, grocery store, footpath shop including employment of tourist guide have been closed down as well as travel & tour business has decreased by 12%. Supply chain effect is noticeably shown in particular collapsed world heritage sites. It has also seen negative impact to National economy as well. This study has recommended to government of Nepal and other donor to reconstruct the collapse world heritage sites and to preserve the other existing world heritage site with treatment of earthquake resist structure as soon as possible.

Keywords: world heritage, community, earthquake, supply chain effect

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3802 A Case of Survival with Self-Draining Haemopericardium Secondary to Stabbing

Authors: Balakrishna Valluru, Ruth Suckling

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A 16 year old male was found collapsed on the road following stab injuries to the chest and abdomen and was transported to the emergency department by ambulance. On arrival in the emergency department the patient was breathless and appeared pale. He was maintaining his airway with spontaneous breathing and had a heart rate of 122 beats per minute with a blood pressure of 83/63 mmHg. He was resuscitated initially with three units of packed red cells. Clinical examination identified three incisional wounds each measuring 2 cm. These were in the left para-sternal region, right infra-scapular region and left upper quadrant of the abdomen. The chest wound over the left parasternal area at the level of 4tth intercostal space was bleeding intermittently on leaning forwards and was relieving his breathlessness intermittently. CT imaging was performed to characterize his injuries and determine his management. CT scan of chest and abdomen showed moderate size haemopericardium with left sided haemopneumothorax. The patient underwent urgent surgical repair of the left ventricle and left anterior descending artery. He recovered without complications and was discharged from the hospital. This case highlights the fact that the potential to develop a life threatening cardiac tamponade was mitigated by the left parasternal stab wound. This injury fortuitously provided a pericardial window through which the bleeding from the injured left ventricle and left anterior descending artery could drain into the left hemithorax providing an opportunity for timely surgical intervention to repair the cardiac injuries.

Keywords: stab, incisional, haemo-pericardium, haemo-pneumothorax

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