Search results for: soaking period

Authors: Kimberley Rain Miner, Karl Kreutz, Larry LeBlanc

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During the period of 1950-1970 persistent organic pollutants such as DDT, dioxin and PCB were released in the atmosphere and distributed through precipitation into glaciers throughout the world. Recent abrupt climate change is increasing the melt rate of these glaciers, introducing the toxins to the watershed. Studies have shown the existence of legacy pollutants in glacial ice, but neither the impact nor quantity of these toxins on downstream populations has been assessed. If these pollutants are released at toxic levels it will be necessary to create a mitigation plan to lower their impact on the affected communities.

Keywords: climate change, adaptation, mitigation, risk management

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Authors: Enoch Kudoahor, Nan Zheng

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We describe the use of readily available self-doped TiO2 and visible light, under a mild condition to synthesize a class of monocyclic, bicyclic, and benzocyclobutene amino compounds containing the endoperoxide bridges; their derivatives and further test their effective clinical activities against malaria, cancer, and their resistances. Considering their stable under photooxidation conditions and recyclability, we use a self-doped TiO2 under a visible condition to synthesize these classes of amino endoperoxides. These amino endoperoxides are stable over a period compared to classes of endoperoxides.

Keywords: catalysis, endoperoxides, titanium dioxide, visible light

Procedia PDF Downloads 154

Authors: Ashraf M. Ward, Ruban S. Yu

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Data consisting of 2757 records from tow Holstein herds made between 2000 and 2010 were used to examine environmental factors affecting age at first calving (AFC) and calving intervals (CI) and consequently estimate genetic and phenotypic parameters and trends. The overall means and standard errors for AFC and CI were 39.4 ± 7.2 months and 487.5 ± 151.6 days respectively. The respective heritability estimates were 0.091 ± 0.05 and 0.044 ± 0.032, while the repeatability estimate for CI was 0.096 ± 0.001. The genetic trends for CI and AFC were -0.6 d/yr and -0.01 mo/yr respectively and were both significant (P < 0.001), indicating a decrease in mean breeding value over the study period. Phenotypic trends were -0.31 mo/yr and -0.35 d/yr for AFC and CI respectively though non-significant (P > 0.05). The low heritability for CI and AFC indicated that temporary environmental influences were much greater than genetic influences or permanent environmental influences on these traits.

Keywords: Holstein, reproductive, genetic parameters, heritability

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Authors: Dávid Csercsik, Péter Kádár

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In the case of the proposed method, the problem is parallelized by considering multiple possible mode of operation profiles, which determine the range in which the generators operate in each period. For each of these profiles, the optimization is carried out independently, and the best resulting dispatch is chosen. For each such profile, the resulting problem is a quadratic programming (QP) problem with a potentially negative definite Q quadratic term, and constraints depending on the actual operation profile. In this paper we analyze the performance of available MATLAB optimization methods and solvers for the corresponding QP.

Keywords: optimization, MATLAB, quadratic programming, economic dispatch

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Authors: Moayyad Shawaqfah, Ibtehal Alqdah, Amjad Adaileh

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Coridoor area (400 km2) lies to the north – east of Amman (60 km). It lies between 285-305 E longitude and 165-185 N latitude (according to Palestine Grid). It been subjected to exploitation of groundwater from new eleven wells since the 1999 with a total discharge of 11 MCM in addition to the previous discharge rate from the well field 14.7 MCM. Consequently, the aquifer balance is disturbed and a major decline in water level. Therefore, suitable groundwater resources management is required to overcome the problems of over pumping and its effect on groundwater quality. Three–dimensional groundwater flow model Processing Modeflow for Windows Pro (PMWIN PRO, 2003) has been used in order to calculate the groundwater budget, aquifer characteristics, and to predict the aquifer response under different stresses for the next 20 years (2035). The model was calibrated for steady state conditions by trial and error calibration. The calibration was performed by matching observed and calculated initial heads for year 2001. Drawdown data for period 2001-2010 were used to calibrate transient model by matching calculated with observed one, after that, the transient model was validated by using the drawdown data for the period 2011-2014. The hydraulic conductivities of the Basalt- A7/B2 aquifer System are ranging between 1.0 and 8.0 m/day. The low conductivity value was found at the north-west and south-western parts of the study area, the high conductivity value was found at north-western corner of the study area and the average storage coefficient is about 0.025. The water balance for the Basalt and B2/A7 formation at steady state condition with a discrepancy of 0.003%. The major inflows come from Jebal Al Arab through the basalt and through the limestone aquifer (B2/A7 12.28 MCMY aquifer and from excess rainfall is about 0.68 MCM/a. While the major outflows from the Basalt-B2/A7 aquifer system are toward Azraq basin with about 5.03 MCMY and leakage to A1/6 aquitard with 7.89 MCMY. Four scenarios have been performed to predict aquifer system responses under different conditions. Scenario no.2 was found to be the best one which indicates that the reduction the abstraction rates by 50% of current withdrawal rate (25.08 MCMY) to 12.54 MCMY. The maximum drawdowns were decreased to reach about, 7.67 and 8.38m in the years 2025 and 2035 respectively.

Keywords: Amman/Zarqa Basin, Jordan, groundwater management, groundwater modeling, modflow

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Authors: Teguh Sugiarto, Ahmad Subagyo, Ludiro Madu, Amir Mohammadian Amiri

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Recently, the significant fluctuations accosiated with Indonesian economy justifies the need for paying more attention to this issue. In this regard, the main objective of this study is to investigate the relationship between two issues related to the macro Indonesia economy called consumption and GDP during the period of 1967 to 2014. This research method exploits short term and long term relationships using Granger and subsequently, models them by the causality method . However, using analysis of Granger with Johansen shows that there is not only a long term, but also a short-long relationship between GDP and consumption using lags the interval 5.

Keywords: cointegration, Granger causality, GDP, consumption

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Authors: Saeidreza Radpour, Md. Alam Mondal, Amit Kumar

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Market penetration of high energy efficiency technologies has key impacts on energy consumption and GHG mitigation. Also, it will be useful to manage the policies formulated by public or private organizations to achieve energy or environmental targets. Energy intensity in residential sector of Alberta was 148.8 GJ per household in 2012 which is 39% more than the average of Canada 106.6 GJ, it was the highest amount among the provinces on per household energy consumption. Energy intensity by appliances of Alberta was 15.3 GJ per household in 2012 which is 14% higher than average value of other provinces and territories in energy demand intensity by appliances in Canada. In this research, a framework has been developed to analyze the market penetration and market share of high energy efficiency technologies in residential sector. The overall methodology was based on development of data-intensive models’ estimation of the market penetration of the appliances in the residential sector over a time period. The developed models were a function of a number of macroeconomic and technical parameters. Developed mathematical equations were developed based on twenty-two years of historical data (1990-2011). The models were analyzed through a series of statistical tests. The market shares of high efficiency appliances were estimated based on the related variables such as capital and operating costs, discount rate, appliance’s life time, annual interest rate, incentives and maximum achievable efficiency in the period of 2015 to 2050. Results show that the market penetration of refrigerators is higher than that of other appliances. The stocks of refrigerators per household are anticipated to increase from 1.28 in 2012 to 1.314 and 1.328 in 2030 and 2050, respectively. Modelling results show that the market penetration rate of stand-alone freezers will decrease between 2012 and 2050. Freezer stock per household will decline from 0.634 in 2012 to 0.556 and 0.515 in 2030 and 2050, respectively. The stock of dishwashers per household is expected to increase from 0.761 in 2012 to 0.865 and 0.960 in 2030 and 2050, respectively. The increase in the market penetration rate of clothes washers and clothes dryers is nearly parallel. The stock of clothes washers and clothes dryers per household is expected to rise from 0.893 and 0.979 in 2012 to 0.960 and 1.0 in 2050, respectively. This proposed presentation will include detailed discussion on the modelling methodology and results.

Keywords: appliances efficiency improvement, energy star, market penetration, residential sector

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Authors: Gozde Inal Kiziltepe, Ozgun Uyanik

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There is growing evidence that socioeconomic (SES)-related differences in mathematical knowledge primarily start in early childhood period. Preschoolers from low-income families are likely to perform substantially worse in mathematical knowledge than their counterparts from middle and higher income families. The differences are seen on a wide range of recognizing written numerals, counting, adding and subtracting, and comparing numerical magnitudes. Early differences in numerical knowledge have a permanent effect childrens’ mathematical knowledge in other grades. In this respect, analyzing the effect of number board game on the number knowledge of 48-60 month-old children from disadvantaged low-income families constitutes the main objective of the study. Participants were the 71 preschoolers from a childcare center which served low-income urban families. Children were randomly assigned to the number board condition or to the color board condition. The number board condition included 35 children and the color board game condition included 36 children. Both board games were 50 cm long and 30 cm high; had ‘The Great Race’ written across the top; and included 11 horizontally arranged, different colored squares of equal sizes with the leftmost square labeled ‘Start’. The numerical board had the numbers 1–10 in the rightmost 10 squares; the color board had different colors in those squares. A rabbit or a bear token were presented to children for selecting, and on each trial spun a spinner to determine whether the token would move one or two spaces. The number condition spinner had a ‘1’ half and a ‘2’ half; the color condition spinner had colors that matched the colors of the squares on the board. Children met one-on-one with an experimenter for four 15- to 20-min sessions within a 2-week period. In the first and fourth sessions, children were administered identical pretest and posttest measures of numerical knowledge. All children were presented three numerical tasks and one subtest presented in the following order: counting, numerical magnitude comparison, numerical identification and Count Objects – Circle Number Probe subtest of Early Numeracy Assessment. In addition, same numerical tasks and subtest were given as a follow-up test four weeks after the post-test administration. Findings obtained from the study; showed that there was a meaningful difference between scores of children who played a color board game in favor of children who played number board game.

Keywords: low income, numerical board game, numerical knowledge, preschool education

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Authors: Fabiano Araujo Soares, Sauro Emerick Salomoni, Joao Paulo Lima da Silva, Igor Luiz Moura, Adson Ferreira da Rocha

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This paper presents a tool developed in the Matlab platform. It was developed to simplify the analysis of surface electromyography signals (S-EMG) in a way accessible to users that are not familiarized with signal processing procedures. The tool receives data by commands in window fields and generates results as graphics and excel tables. The underlying math of each S-EMG estimator is presented. Setup window and result graphics are presented. The tool was presented to four non-engineer users and all of them managed to appropriately use it after a 5 minutes instruction period.

Keywords: S-EMG estimators, electromyography, surface electromyography, ARV, RMS, MDF, MNF, CV

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Authors: Kasra Ghaemi, Syeda Tasnim, Shohel Mahmud

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One of the main issues affecting the quality and shelf life of food products is temperature fluctuation during transportation and storage. Packaging plays an important role in protecting food from environmental conditions, especially thermal variations. In this study, the performance of using microencapsulated Phase Change Material (PCM) as a promising thermal buffer layer in smart food packaging is investigated. The considered insulation layer is evaluated for different thicknesses and the absorbed heat from the environment. The results are presented in terms of the melting time of PCM or provided thermal protection period.

Keywords: food packaging, phase change material, thermal buffer, protection time

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Authors: Leyla Sattarzadeh, Shahin Fathi Molk Kian, Maghsoud Peeri, Mohammadali Azarbaijani, Hasan Matin Homaee

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Inflammation by various mechanisms may cause atherosclerosis. Systemic circulating inflammatory markers such as C-reactive protein (CRP), pro-inflammatory cytokines such as Interleukin-6 (IL-6), vascular inflammatory markers as adhesion molecules like Intracellular Adhesion Molecule-1 (ICAM-1) and Vascular Cell Adhesion Molecule-1 (VCAM-1) are the predictors of cardiovascular diseases. Regarding the conflicting results about the effect of different patterns of resistance exercise training on these inflammatory markers, present study aimed to examine the effect of different patterns of eight week resistance exercise training on CRP, IL-6, ICAM-1 and VCAM-1 levels in healthy untrained women. 56 healthy volunteered untrained female university students (aged: 21 ± 3 yr., Body Mass Index: 21.5 ± 3.5 kg/m²) were selected purposefully and divided into four groups. At the end of training protocol and after subject drop during the protocol, upper body exercise training (n=11), lower body (n=12) and whole body resistance exercise training group (n=11) completed the eight weeks of training period although the control group (n=7) did anything. Blood samples gathered pre and post-experimental period and CRP, IL-6, ICAM-1 and VCAM-1 levels were evaluated using special laboratory kits, then the difference of pre and post values of each indices analyzed using one-way analysis of variance (α < 0.05). The results of one way ANOVA for difference of pre and post values of CRP, ICAM-1 and VCAM-1 showed no significant changes due to the exercise training, but there were significant differences between groups about IL-6. Tukey post- hoc test indicated that there is significant difference between the differences of pre and post values of IL-6 between lower body exercise training group and control group, and eight weeks of lower body exercise training lead to significant changes in IL-6 values. There were no changes in anthropometric indices. The findings show that the different patterns of upper, lower and whole body exercise training by involving the different amounts of muscles altered the IL-6 values in lower body exercise training group probably because of engaging the bigger amount of muscles, but showed any significant changes about CRP, ICAM-1 and VCAM-1 probably due to intensity and duration of exercise or the lower levels of these markers at baseline of healthy people.

Keywords: resistance training, C-reactive protein, interleukin-6, intracellular adhesion molecule-1, vascular cell adhesion molecule-1

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Authors: M. Jafari Toosy, A. Zamani

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This article, considering the result of pandemics at the international level and all activities and projects performed virtually and the need for resource management and virtual teams in this period identifies the components of virtual management after searching the available resources. Exploration of virtual management in the pandemic era is explored in 10 international articles. The results of research with this method and according to the tasks and topics related to management knowledge and definition of virtual teams can be divided into topics such as planning, decision making, control, organization, leadership, attention to growth and capability, resources and facilities, Communication, creativity, innovation and security. In order to explain the nature of virtual management, a definition of virtual management was provided.

Keywords: management, virtual, virtual team management, pandemic, team

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Authors: Sonia Butalia, Huong Luu, Alexis Guigue, Karen J. B. Martins, Khanh Vu, Scott W. Klarenbach

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Obesity is associated with significant personal impacts on health and has a substantial economic burden on payers due to increased healthcare use. A contemporary estimate of the healthcare costs associated with obesity at the population level are lacking. This evidence may provide further rationale for weight management strategies. Methods: Adults who underwent a medical procedure between 2012 and 2019 in Alberta, Canada were categorized into the investigational cohort (had body mass index [BMI]-defined class 2 or 3 obesity based on a procedure-associated code) and the control cohort (did not have the BMI procedure-associated code); those who had bariatric surgery were excluded. Characteristics were presented and healthcare costs ($CDN) determined over a 1-year observation period (2019/2020). Logistic regression and a generalized linear model with log link and gamma distribution were used to assess total healthcare costs (comprised of hospitalizations, emergency department visits, ambulatory care visits, physician visits, and outpatient prescription drugs); potential confounders included age, sex, region of residence, and whether the medical procedure was performed within 6-months before the observation period in the partial adjustment, and also the type of procedure performed, socioeconomic status, Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), and seven obesity-related health conditions in the full adjustment. Cost ratios and estimated cost differences with 95% confidence intervals (CI) were reported; incremental cost differences within the adjusted models represent referent cases. Results: The investigational cohort (n=220,190) was older (mean age: 53 standard deviation [SD]±17 vs 50 SD±17 years), had more females (71% vs 57%), lived in rural areas to a greater extent (20% vs 14%), experienced a higher overall burden of disease (CCI: 0.6 SD±1.3 vs 0.3 SD±0.9), and were less socioeconomically well-off (material/social deprivation was lower [14%/14%] in the most well-off quintile vs 20%/19%) compared with controls (n=1,955,548). Unadjusted total healthcare costs were estimated to be 1.77-times (95% CI: 1.76, 1.78) higher in the investigational versus control cohort; each healthcare resource contributed to the higher cost ratio. After adjusting for potential confounders, the total healthcare cost ratio decreased, but remained higher in the investigational versus control cohort (partial adjustment: 1.57 [95% CI: 1.57, 1.58]; full adjustment: 1.21 [95% CI: 1.20, 1.21]); each healthcare resource contributed to the higher cost ratio. Among urban-dwelling 50-year old females who previously had non-operative procedures, no procedures performed within 6-months before the observation period, a social deprivation index score of 3, a CCI score of 0.32, and no history of select obesity-related health conditions, the predicted cost difference between those living with and without obesity was $386 (95% CI: $376, $397). Conclusions: If these findings hold for the Canadian population, one would expect an estimated additional $3.0 billion per year in healthcare costs nationally related to BMI-defined obesity (based on an adult obesity rate of 26% and an estimated annual incremental cost of $386 [21%]); incremental costs are higher when obesity-related health conditions are not adjusted for. Results of this study provide additional rationale for investment in interventions that are effective in preventing and treating obesity and its complications.

Keywords: administrative data, body mass index-defined obesity, healthcare cost, real world evidence

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Authors: Ibrahim Mahamid, A. Al-Ghonamy, M. Aichouni

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This study is conducted to identify causes of cost deviations in public construction projects in Saudi Arabia from contractors’ perspective. 41 factors that might affect cost estimating accuracy were identified through literature review and discussion with some construction experts. The factors were tabulated in a questionnaire form and a field survey included 51 contractors from the Northern Province of Saudi Arabia was performed. The results show that the top five important causes are: wrong estimation method, long period between design and time of implementation, cost of labor, cost of machinary and absence of construction-cost data.

Keywords: cost deviation, public construction, cost estimating, Saudi Arabia, contractors

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Authors: Cansu Kılıç, Ferhat Altunsoy

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In this study, a total of 82 species belonging to the families Staphylinidae, Histeridae, Dermestidae, Silphidae and Cleridae within Coleptera were detected which are collected from 24 pig carrion for a duration of one year. While 12 of the carrions have been placed in rural areas, other 12 have been placed in urban areas in Eskişehir province. The distribution of these species according to months and the period that they exist on different stages of decomposition were determined. Furthermore, Coleoptera species attracted to the pig carrions both in rural and urban areas were detected and their similarities and differences were presented.

Keywords: forensic entomology, Coleoptera, succession, Turkey, rural, urban

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Authors: Rajashree Bothale, Venkateswara Rao

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Indian Himalayas also known as third pole with 0.9 Million SQ km area, contain the largest reserve of ice and snow outside poles and affect global climate and water availability in the perennial rivers. The variations in the extent of snow are indicative of climate change. The snow melt is sensitive to climate change (warming) and also an influencing factor to the climate change. A study of the spatio-temporal dynamics of snow cover and melt/freeze conditions is carried out using space based observations in visible and microwave bands. An analysis period of 2003 to 2015 is selected to identify and map the changes and trend in snow cover using Indian Remote Sensing (IRS) Advanced Wide Field Sensor (AWiFS) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer(MODIS) data. For mapping of wet snow, microwave data is used, which is sensitive to the presence of liquid water in the snow. The present study uses Ku-band scatterometer data from QuikSCAT and Oceansat satellites. The enhanced resolution images at 2.25 km from the 13.6GHz sensor are used to analyze the backscatter response to dry and wet snow for the period of 2000-2013 using threshold method. The study area is divided into three major river basins namely Brahmaputra, Ganges and Indus which also represent the diversification in Himalayas as the Eastern Himalayas, Central Himalayas and Western Himalayas. Topographic variations across different zones show that a majority of the study area lies in 4000–5500 m elevation range and the maximum percent of high elevated areas (>5500 m) lies in Western Himalayas. The effect of climate change could be seen in the extent of snow cover and also on the melt/freeze status in different parts of Himalayas. Melt onset day increases from east (March11+11) to west (May12+15) with large variation in number of melt days. Western Himalayas has shorter melt duration (120+15) in comparison to Eastern Himalayas (150+16) providing lesser time for melt. Eastern Himalaya glaciers are prone for enhanced melt due to large melt duration. The extent of snow cover coupled with the status of melt/freeze indicating solar radiation can be used as precursor for monsoon prediction.

Keywords: Indian Himalaya, Scatterometer, Snow Melt/Freeze, AWiFS, Cryosphere

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Authors: Mohamed A. Saleem

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Using mostly seismic data, this study intends to show some examples of igneous intrusions found in some areas of the Sirt Basin and explore the period of their emplacement as well as the interrelationships between these sills. The study area is located in the south of the Zallah Trough, south-west Sirt basin, Libya. It is precisely between the longitudes 18.35ᵒ E and 19.35ᵒ E, and the latitudes 27.8ᵒ N and 28.0ᵒ N. Based on a variety of criteria that are usually used as marks on the igneous intrusions, twelve igneous intrusions (Sills), have been detected and analysed using 3D seismic data. One or more of the following were used as identification criteria: the high amplitude reflectors paired with abrupt reflector terminations, vertical offsets, or what is described as a dike-like connection, the violation, the saucer form, and the roughness. Because of their laying between the hosting layers, the majority of these intrusions are classified as sills. Another distinguishing feature is the intersection geometry link between some of these sills. Every single sill has given a name just to distinguish the sills from each other such as S-1, S-2, and …S-12. To avoid the repetition of description, the common characteristics and some statistics of these sills are shown in summary tables, while the specific characters that are not common and have been noticed for each sill are shown individually. The sills, S-1, S-2, and S-3, are approximately parallel to one other, with the shape of these sills being governed by the syncline structure of their host layers. The faults that dominated the strata (pre-upper Cretaceous strata) have a significant impact on the sills; they caused their discontinuity, while the upper layers have a shape of anticlines. S-1 and S-10 are the group's deepest and highest sills, respectively, with S-1 seated near the basement's top and S-10 extending into the sequence of the upper cretaceous. The dramatic escalation of sill S-4 can be seen in N-S profiles. The majority of the interpreted sills are influenced and impacted by a large number of normal faults that strike in various directions and propagate vertically from the surface to the basement's top. This indicates that the sediment sequences were existed before the sill’s intrusion, were deposited, and that the younger faults occurred more recently. The pre-upper cretaceous unit is the current geological depth for the Sills S-1, S-2 … S-9, while Sills S-10, S-11, and S-12 are hosted by the Cretaceous unit. Over the sills S-1, S-2, and S-3, which are the deepest sills, the pre-upper cretaceous surface has a slightly forced folding, these forced folding is also noticed above the right and left tips of sill S-8 and S-6, respectively, while the absence of these marks on the above sequences of layers supports the idea that the aforementioned sills were emplaced during the early upper cretaceous period.

Keywords: Sirt Basin, Zallah Trough, igneous intrusions, seismic data

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Authors: Amin Osama Amin Mohamed Elbaramawy

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In the last period of time, about ten years ago, wars caused violations of human rights in many places, and despite international condemnations, they did not stop, and the truth is that international law was unable to stop them. The global wars and conflicts that the world has been witnessing for more than ten years have caused the displacement of millions of people in all parts of the earth, causing a violation of the human rights of those people. Despite international condemnations of these conflicts, these conflicts have not stopped and have not been resolved until now. Therefore, I call for international law and international courts to be more effective and not just in words, taking into account the speed in this due to the increase in those wars and conflicts every day and new violations every day.

Keywords: war, freedom, human rights, international law

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Authors: Habiba Ben Abdessalem

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The emergence of giant set of textual data was the push that has encouraged researchers to invest in this field. The purpose of textual data analysis methods is to facilitate access to such type of data by providing various graphic visualizations. Applying these methods requires a corpus pretreatment step, whose standards are set according to the objective of the problem studied. This step determines the forms list contained in contingency table by keeping only those information carriers. This step may, however, lead to noisy contingency tables, so the use of wavelet denoising function. The validity of the proposed approach is tested on a text database that offers economic and political events in Tunisia for a well definite period.

Keywords: textual data, wavelet, denoising, contingency table

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Authors: M. Azadi, N. Tahouni, M. H. Panjeshahi

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A techno-economic evaluation for efficient use of energy in a large scale industrial plant of methanol is carried out. This assessment is based on integration of a gas turbine with an existing plant of methanol in which the outlet gas products of exothermic reactor is expanded to power generation. Also, it is decided that methanol production rate is constant through addition of power generation system to the existing methanol plant. Having incorporated a gas turbine with the existing plant, the economic results showed total investment of MUSD 16.9, energy saving of 3.6 MUSD/yr with payback period of approximately 4.7 years.

Keywords: energy saving, methanol, gas turbine, power generation

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Authors: Taisiia Gorshkova

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Since the 1980s, spatial correlation models have been used more often to model regional indicators. An increasingly popular method for studying regional indicators is modeling taking into account spatial relationships between objects that are part of the same economic zone. In 2000s the new class of model – spatial vector autoregressions was developed. The main difference between standard and spatial vector autoregressions is that in the spatial VAR (SpVAR), the values of indicators at time t may depend on the values of explanatory variables at the same time t in neighboring regions and on the values of explanatory variables at time t-k in neighboring regions. Thus, VAR is a special case of SpVAR in the absence of spatial lags, and the spatial panel data model is a special case of spatial VAR in the absence of time lags. Two specifications of SpVAR were applied to Russian regional data for 2000-2017. The values of GRP and regional CPI are used as endogenous variables. The lags of GRP, CPI and the unemployment rate were used as explanatory variables. For comparison purposes, the standard VAR without spatial correlation was used as “naïve” model. In the first specification of SpVAR the unemployment rate and the values of depending variables, GRP and CPI, in neighboring regions at the same moment of time t were included in equations for GRP and CPI respectively. To account for the values of indicators in neighboring regions, the adjacency weight matrix is used, in which regions with a common sea or land border are assigned a value of 1, and the rest - 0. In the second specification the values of depending variables in neighboring regions at the moment of time t were replaced by these values in the previous time moment t-1. According to the results obtained, when inflation and GRP of neighbors are added into the model both inflation and GRP are significantly affected by their previous values, and inflation is also positively affected by an increase in unemployment in the previous period and negatively affected by an increase in GRP in the previous period, which corresponds to economic theory. GRP is not affected by either the inflation lag or the unemployment lag. When the model takes into account lagged values of GRP and inflation in neighboring regions, the results of inflation modeling are practically unchanged: all indicators except the unemployment lag are significant at a 5% significance level. For GRP, in turn, GRP lags in neighboring regions also become significant at a 5% significance level. For both spatial and “naïve” VARs the RMSE were calculated. The minimum RMSE are obtained via SpVAR with lagged explanatory variables. Thus, according to the results of the study, it can be concluded that SpVARs can accurately model both the actual values of macro indicators (particularly CPI and GRP) and the general situation in the regions

Keywords: forecasting, regional data, spatial econometrics, vector autoregression

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Authors: Gultekin Gurcay

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In this paper, effects and responses of stock were analyzed. This analysis was done periodically. The dimensions of the financial crisis impact on the stock market were investigated by GARCH model. In this context, S&P 500 stock market is modeled with DAX, NIKKEI and BIST100. In this way, The effects of the changing in S&P 500 stock market were examined on European and Asian stock markets. Conditional variance coefficient will be calculated through garch model. The scope of the crisis period, the conditional covariance coefficient will be analyzed comparatively.

Keywords: conditional variance coefficient, financial crisis, garch model, stock market

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Authors: Taşkın Deniz Yıldız, Mustafa Topaloğlu, Orhan Kural

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The right to operate a fairly long periods of prior periods and after the 3213 Mining Law has been observed to be shortened in Turkey. Permit the realization of business activities (or concession) requested the purchase of the mine operated "found mine" position, as well as the financial and technical capability to have the owner of the right to operate the mines as well as the principle of equality is important in terms of assessing the best way be. In particular, in this context, license fields "negligence" (downsizing) have noted that the current arrangement for all periods. However, in the period after 3213 Mining Act and a permit to operate more effectively within the framework of implementation of negligence is laid down.

Keywords: mining legislation, operation, permit, Turkey

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Authors: Zahra Amirhosseini, Mahtab Nameni

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The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between growth, beta, and Company's cash. We calculate cash as dependent variable and growth opportunity and beta as independent variables. This study was based on an analysis of panel data. Population of the study is the companies which listed in Tehran Stock exchange and a financial data of 215 companies during the period 2010 to 2015 have been selected as the sample through systematic sampling. The results of the first hypothesis showed there is a significant relationship between growth opportunities cash holdings. Also according to the analysis done in the second hypothesis, we determined that there is an inverse relation between company risk and cash holdings.

Keywords: growth, beta, liquidity, company

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Authors: Ahmad Saleem

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Ethereum is the second largest crypto currency in blockchain ecosystem. Along with standard transactions, it supports smart contracts and NFT’s. Current research trends are focused on analyzing the overall structure of the network its growth and behavior. Ethereum addresses are anonymous and can be created on fly. The nature of Ethereum network and addresses make it hard to predict their behavior. The activity period of an ethereum address is not much analyzed. Using machine learning we can make early prediction about the disposability of the address. In this paper we analyzed the lifetime of the addresses. We also identified and predicted the disposable addresses using machine learning models and compared the results.

Keywords: blockchain, Ethereum, cryptocurrency, prediction

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Authors: Hamed Hedayatnia, Nathan Van Den Bossche

Abstract:

Understanding the ways in which climate change accelerates or slows down the process of material deterioration is the first step towards assessing adaptive approaches for the conservation of historical heritage. Analysis of the climate change effects on the degradation risk assessment parameters like freeze-thaw cycles and wind erosion is also a key parameter when considering mitigating actions. Due to the vulnerability of cultural heritage to climate change, the impact of this phenomenon on material degradation criteria with the focus on brick masonry walls in Timurid heritage, located in Iran, was studied. The Timurids were the final great dynasty to emerge from the Central Asian steppe. Through their patronage, the eastern Islamic world in northwestern of Iran, especially in Mashhad and Herat, became a prominent cultural center. Goharshad Mosque is a mosque in Mashhad of the Razavi Khorasan Province, Iran. It was built by order of Empress Goharshad, the wife of Shah Rukh of the Timurid dynasty in 1418 CE. Choosing an appropriate regional climate model was the first step. The outputs of two different climate model: the 'ALARO-0' and 'REMO,' were analyzed to find out which model is more adopted to the area. For validating the quality of the models, a comparison between model data and observations was done in 4 different climate zones in Iran for a period of 30 years. The impacts of the projected climate change were evaluated until 2100. To determine the material specification of Timurid bricks, standard brick samples from a Timurid mosque were studied. Determination of water absorption coefficient, defining the diffusion properties and determination of real density, and total porosity tests were performed to characterize the specifications of brick masonry walls, which is needed for running HAM-simulations. Results from the analysis showed that the threatening factors in each climate zone are almost different, but the most effective factor around Iran is the extreme temperature increase and erosion. In the north-western region of Iran, one of the key factors is wind erosion. In the north, rainfall erosion and mold growth risk are the key factors. In the north-eastern part, in which our case study is located, the important parameter is wind erosion.

Keywords: brick, climate change, degradation criteria, heritage, Timurid period

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Authors: M. V. Shivaani, P. K. Jain, Surendra S. Yadav

Abstract:

Worldwide regulators, practitioners and researchers view risk-disclosure as one of the most important steps that will promote corporate accountability and transparency. Recognizing this growing significance of risk disclosures, the paper first develops a risk disclosure index. Covering 69 risk items/themes, this index is developed by employing thematic content analysis and encompasses three attributes of disclosure: namely, nature (qualitative or quantitative), time horizon (backward-looking or forward-looking) and tone (no impact, positive impact or negative impact). As the focus of study is on substantive rather than symbolic disclosure, content analysis has been carried out manually. The study is based on non-financial companies of Nifty500 index and covers a ten year period from April 1, 2005 to March 31, 2015, thus yielding 3,872 annual reports for analysis. The analysis reveals that (on an average) only about 14% of risk items (i.e. about 10 out 69 risk items studied) are being disclosed by Indian companies. Risk items that are frequently disclosed are mostly macroeconomic in nature and their disclosures tend to be qualitative, forward-looking and conveying both positive and negative aspects of the concerned risk. The second objective of the paper is to gauge the factors that affect the level of disclosures in annual reports. Given the panel nature of data, and possible endogeneity amongst variables, Diff-GMM regression has been applied. The results indicate that age and size of firms have a significant positive impact on disclosure quality, whereas growth rate does not have a significant impact. Further, post-recession period (2009-2015) has witnessed significant improvement in quality of disclosures. In terms of corporate governance variables, board size, board independence, CEO duality, presence of CRO and constitution of risk management committee appear to be significant factors in determining the quality of risk disclosures. It is noteworthy that the study contributes to literature by putting forth a variant to existing disclosure indices that not only captures the quantity but also the quality of disclosures (in terms of semantic attributes). Also, the study is a first of its kind attempt in a prominent emerging market i.e. India. Therefore, this study is expected to facilitate regulators in mandating and regulating risk disclosures and companies in their endeavor to reduce information asymmetry.

Keywords: risk disclosure, voluntary disclosures, corporate governance, Diff-GMM

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Authors: Ö. Şenyiğit, A. Çolak

Abstract:

It is of great importance for an architectural student to know the parameters through which he/she can conduct his/her design and makes his/her design effective in architectural education. Therefore; an empirical application study was carried out through the designing activity using the emulation model to support the design and design approaches of architectural students. During the investigation period, studies were done on the basic design elements and principles of the fall semester, and the emulation model, one of the designing methods that constitute the subject of the study, was fictionalized as three phased “recognition-interpretation-application”. As a result of the study, it was observed that when students were given a key method during the design process, their awareness increased and their aspects improved as well.

Keywords: basic design, design education, design methods, emulation

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Authors: Meskure Pak, Nihal Buyukuslu

Abstract:

During Ramadan Muslims refrain from eating and drinking from dawn to sunset. Transformation of the eating habits cause profound changes in body composition. This study was performed during Ramadan of June-July 2015 with the regular fasting healthy adults (15 women and 15 men). The participants who were not fasting the whole month, have chronic diseases, pregnant and lactated were excluded. All attendances were informed about study. Written informed consent was taken from the voluntary participants. The work was approved by the Ethics and Research Committee of Istanbul Medipol University, Turkey. A questionnaire was conducted to determine the nutritional status, demographic and anthropometric data at the beginning, in the middle and at the end of Ramadan. Statistical Package for Social Sciences version 18.0 (SPSS, Chicago, IL, USA) was used for analyses. The mean ages of women and men were 34.4±9.45 and 28.9±10.55 years respectively. The BMI values (kg/m2) were slightly increased in men (26.5±3.9 to 26.2±3.7) and decreased in women (22.5±3.5 to 23.3±4.5). However the differences in BMI values between genders were not significant. Waist circumferences (WC) (cm) decreased in both women (80.2±14.6 to 79.4±17.7) and men (98.9±8.4 to 95.2±11.0) through the Ramadan. Fat percentages of women (27.0±71) increased in the middle of Ramadan (28.4±7.8) and decreased at the end of Ramadan (27.8±8.3). The fat percentages of men (21.5±6.3) were not affected in the middle of Ramadan (21.5±6.4) however decreased at the end of Ramadan (20.8±6.2). The total change in fat mass from beginning to end of Ramadan was higher in women than in men. The daily energy intake was higher in men than in women during Ramadan. In the middle of Ramadan energy intake (kcal) was reached to the highest level (2057.8±693.1) and at the end of Ramadan it decreased to the beginning level (1656.7±553.2) for men. However, daily energy intake of women slightly decreased from the beginning (1410.0±359.7) to the end (1409.2±366.7) of Ramadan. The comparison of energy intake between men and women was significant in the middle of Ramadan (p < 0.05). Water consumptions for both groups were increased in Ramadan fasting period. In comparison with the beginning of Ramadan, daily carbohydrate and fat consumptions increased and the consumption of protein decreased for men and for women at the end of Ramadan. The gender comparison resulted in a significant increase for protein and carbohydrate consumption of men in the middle of Ramadan (p < 0.05). In the first two weeks, the daily energy intake, the consumption of carbohydrates and fats seemed to increase for both men and women. However the later days of Ramadan daily fat consumption decreased to the level of beginning consumption levels which may indicate the nutritional adaptation period. In spite of the consumption of protein sources such as meat, poultry and egg increased, the decrease in the total amount of protein consumed in Ramadan may be due to a decrease in the consumption of milk and dairy products. In conclusion, the nutritional habits and preferred foods changed during Ramadan as a result affected the body composition.

Keywords: body composition, fasting, nutritional status, Ramadan

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Authors: Abdullah Al Mamoon, Niels E. Joergensen, Ataur Rahman, Hassan Qasem

Abstract:

Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) in its fourth Assessment Report AR4 predicts a more extreme climate towards the end of the century, which is likely to impact the design of engineering infrastructure projects with a long design life. A recent study in 2013 developed new design rainfall for Qatar, which provides an improved design basis of drainage infrastructure for the State of Qatar under the current climate. The current design standards in Qatar do not consider increased rainfall intensity caused by climate change. The focus of this paper is to update recently developed design rainfalls in Qatar under the changing climatic conditions based on IPCC's AR4 allowing a later revision to the proposed design standards, relevant for projects with a longer design life. The future climate has been investigated based on the climate models released by IPCC’s AR4 and A2 story line of emission scenarios (SRES) using a stationary approach. Annual maximum series (AMS) of predicted 24 hours rainfall data for both wet (NCAR-CCSM) scenario and dry (CSIRO-MK3.5) scenario for the Qatari grid points in the climate models have been extracted for three periods, current climate 2010-2039, medium term climate (2040-2069) and end of century climate (2070-2099). A homogeneous region of the Qatari grid points has been formed and L-Moments based regional frequency approach is adopted to derive design rainfalls. The results indicate no significant changes in the design rainfall on the short term 2040-2069, but significant changes are expected towards the end of the century (2070-2099). New design rainfalls have been developed taking into account climate change for 2070-2099 scenario and by averaging results from the two scenarios. IPCC’s AR4 predicts that the rainfall intensity for a 5-year return period rain with duration of 1 to 2 hours will increase by 11% in 2070-2099 compared to current climate. Similarly, the rainfall intensity for more extreme rainfall, with a return period of 100 years and duration of 1 to 2 hours will increase by 71% in 2070-2099 compared to current climate. Infrastructure with a design life exceeding 60 years should add safety factors taking the predicted effects from climate change into due consideration.

Keywords: climate change, design rainfalls, IDF, Qatar

Procedia PDF Downloads 393