Search results for: quantification accuracy
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4192

Search results for: quantification accuracy

3082 Association of Transmission Risk Factors Among HCV-infected Bangladeshi Patients With Different Genotypes

Authors: Nahida Sultana

Abstract:

Globally, an estimated 58 million people have chronic hepatitis C virus infection, with about 1.5 million new infections occurring per year. The hepatitis C virus is a blood-borne virus, and most infections occur through exposure to blood from unsafe injection practices, unsafe health care, unscreened blood transfusion, injection drug use, and sexual practices that lead to exposure to blood. Hepatitis C virus (HCV) causes chronic infections that mainly affect the liver leading to liver diseases. This study aimed to determine whether there is any significant association between HCV transmission risk factors in relation to genotypes in HCV-infected Bangladeshi patients. After quantification of HCV viral load, 36 samples were randomly selected for HCV genotyping and risk factor measurement. A greater proportion of genotype 1 (p > 0.05) patients (40%) underwent blood transfusion compared to patients (22.6%) with genotype 3 infections. More genotype 1 patient underwent surgery and invasive procedures (20%), and rather than those with genotype 3 patients (16.1%). The history of IDUs (25.8%) and sexual exposure (3.2%) are only prevalent in genotype 3 patients and absent in patients with genotype 1 (p >0.05). There was no significant statistical difference found in HCV transmission risk factors (blood transfusion, IDUs, Surgery& interventions, sexual transmission) between patients infected with genotypes 1 and 3. In HCV infection, genotype may have no relation to transmission risk factors among Bangladeshi patients.

Keywords: HCV genotype, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), HCV viral load, IDUs

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3081 Clinical Impact of Ultra-Deep Versus Sanger Sequencing Detection of Minority Mutations on the HIV-1 Drug Resistance Genotype Interpretations after Virological Failure

Authors: S. Mohamed, D. Gonzalez, C. Sayada, P. Halfon

Abstract:

Drug resistance mutations are routinely detected using standard Sanger sequencing, which does not detect minor variants with a frequency below 20%. The impact of detecting minor variants generated by ultra-deep sequencing (UDS) on HIV drug-resistance (DR) interpretations has not yet been studied. Fifty HIV-1 patients who experienced virological failure were included in this retrospective study. The HIV-1 UDS protocol allowed the detection and quantification of HIV-1 protease and reverse transcriptase variants related to genotypes A, B, C, E, F, and G. DeepChek®-HIV simplified DR interpretation software was used to compare Sanger sequencing and UDS. The total time required for the UDS protocol was found to be approximately three times longer than Sanger sequencing with equivalent reagent costs. UDS detected all of the mutations found by population sequencing and identified additional resistance variants in all patients. An analysis of DR revealed a total of 643 and 224 clinically relevant mutations by UDS and Sanger sequencing, respectively. Three resistance mutations with > 20% prevalence were detected solely by UDS: A98S (23%), E138A (21%) and V179I (25%). A significant difference in the DR interpretations for 19 antiretroviral drugs was observed between the UDS and Sanger sequencing methods. Y181C and T215Y were the most frequent mutations associated with interpretation differences. A combination of UDS and DeepChek® software for the interpretation of DR results would help clinicians provide suitable treatments. A cut-off of 1% allowed a better characterisation of the viral population by identifying additional resistance mutations and improving the DR interpretation.

Keywords: HIV-1, ultra-deep sequencing, Sanger sequencing, drug resistance

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3080 The Direct Deconvolution Model for the Large Eddy Simulation of Turbulence

Authors: Ning Chang, Zelong Yuan, Yunpeng Wang, Jianchun Wang

Abstract:

Large eddy simulation (LES) has been extensively used in the investigation of turbulence. LES calculates the grid-resolved large-scale motions and leaves small scales modeled by sub lfilterscale (SFS) models. Among the existing SFS models, the deconvolution model has been used successfully in the LES of the engineering flows and geophysical flows. Despite the wide application of deconvolution models, the effects of subfilter scale dynamics and filter anisotropy on the accuracy of SFS modeling have not been investigated in depth. The results of LES are highly sensitive to the selection of fi lters and the anisotropy of the grid, which has been overlooked in previous research. In the current study, two critical aspects of LES are investigated. Firstly, we analyze the influence of sub-fi lter scale (SFS) dynamics on the accuracy of direct deconvolution models (DDM) at varying fi lter-to-grid ratios (FGR) in isotropic turbulence. An array of invertible filters are employed, encompassing Gaussian, Helmholtz I and II, Butterworth, Chebyshev I and II, Cauchy, Pao, and rapidly decaying filters. The signi ficance of FGR becomes evident, as it acts as a pivotal factor in error control for precise SFS stress prediction. When FGR is set to 1, the DDM models cannot accurately reconstruct the SFS stress due to the insufficient resolution of SFS dynamics. Notably, prediction capabilities are enhanced at an FGR of 2, resulting in accurate SFS stress reconstruction, except for cases involving Helmholtz I and II fi lters. A remarkable precision close to 100% is achieved at an FGR of 4 for all DDM models. Additionally, the further exploration extends to the fi lter anisotropy to address its impact on the SFS dynamics and LES accuracy. By employing dynamic Smagorinsky model (DSM), dynamic mixed model (DMM), and direct deconvolution model (DDM) with the anisotropic fi lter, aspect ratios (AR) ranging from 1 to 16 in LES fi lters are evaluated. The findings highlight the DDM's pro ficiency in accurately predicting SFS stresses under highly anisotropic filtering conditions. High correlation coefficients exceeding 90% are observed in the a priori study for the DDM's reconstructed SFS stresses, surpassing those of the DSM and DMM models. However, these correlations tend to decrease as lter anisotropy increases. In the a posteriori studies, the DDM model consistently outperforms the DSM and DMM models across various turbulence statistics, encompassing velocity spectra, probability density functions related to vorticity, SFS energy flux, velocity increments, strain-rate tensors, and SFS stress. It is observed that as fi lter anisotropy intensify , the results of DSM and DMM become worse, while the DDM continues to deliver satisfactory results across all fi lter-anisotropy scenarios. The fi ndings emphasize the DDM framework's potential as a valuable tool for advancing the development of sophisticated SFS models for LES of turbulence.

Keywords: deconvolution model, large eddy simulation, subfilter scale modeling, turbulence

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3079 Comparison of Different Artificial Intelligence-Based Protein Secondary Structure Prediction Methods

Authors: Jamerson Felipe Pereira Lima, Jeane Cecília Bezerra de Melo

Abstract:

The difficulty and cost related to obtaining of protein tertiary structure information through experimental methods, such as X-ray crystallography or NMR spectroscopy, helped raising the development of computational methods to do so. An approach used in these last is prediction of tridimensional structure based in the residue chain, however, this has been proved an NP-hard problem, due to the complexity of this process, explained by the Levinthal paradox. An alternative solution is the prediction of intermediary structures, such as the secondary structure of the protein. Artificial Intelligence methods, such as Bayesian statistics, artificial neural networks (ANN), support vector machines (SVM), among others, were used to predict protein secondary structure. Due to its good results, artificial neural networks have been used as a standard method to predict protein secondary structure. Recent published methods that use this technique, in general, achieved a Q3 accuracy between 75% and 83%, whereas the theoretical accuracy limit for protein prediction is 88%. Alternatively, to achieve better results, support vector machines prediction methods have been developed. The statistical evaluation of methods that use different AI techniques, such as ANNs and SVMs, for example, is not a trivial problem, since different training sets, validation techniques, as well as other variables can influence the behavior of a prediction method. In this study, we propose a prediction method based on artificial neural networks, which is then compared with a selected SVM method. The chosen SVM protein secondary structure prediction method is the one proposed by Huang in his work Extracting Physico chemical Features to Predict Protein Secondary Structure (2013). The developed ANN method has the same training and testing process that was used by Huang to validate his method, which comprises the use of the CB513 protein data set and three-fold cross-validation, so that the comparative analysis of the results can be made comparing directly the statistical results of each method.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, protein secondary structure, protein structure prediction, support vector machines

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3078 An Automated Stock Investment System Using Machine Learning Techniques: An Application in Australia

Authors: Carol Anne Hargreaves

Abstract:

A key issue in stock investment is how to select representative features for stock selection. The objective of this paper is to firstly determine whether an automated stock investment system, using machine learning techniques, may be used to identify a portfolio of growth stocks that are highly likely to provide returns better than the stock market index. The second objective is to identify the technical features that best characterize whether a stock’s price is likely to go up and to identify the most important factors and their contribution to predicting the likelihood of the stock price going up. Unsupervised machine learning techniques, such as cluster analysis, were applied to the stock data to identify a cluster of stocks that was likely to go up in price – portfolio 1. Next, the principal component analysis technique was used to select stocks that were rated high on component one and component two – portfolio 2. Thirdly, a supervised machine learning technique, the logistic regression method, was used to select stocks with a high probability of their price going up – portfolio 3. The predictive models were validated with metrics such as, sensitivity (recall), specificity and overall accuracy for all models. All accuracy measures were above 70%. All portfolios outperformed the market by more than eight times. The top three stocks were selected for each of the three stock portfolios and traded in the market for one month. After one month the return for each stock portfolio was computed and compared with the stock market index returns. The returns for all three stock portfolios was 23.87% for the principal component analysis stock portfolio, 11.65% for the logistic regression portfolio and 8.88% for the K-means cluster portfolio while the stock market performance was 0.38%. This study confirms that an automated stock investment system using machine learning techniques can identify top performing stock portfolios that outperform the stock market.

Keywords: machine learning, stock market trading, logistic regression, cluster analysis, factor analysis, decision trees, neural networks, automated stock investment system

Procedia PDF Downloads 157
3077 Performance Comparison and Visualization of COMSOL Multiphysics, Matlab, and Fortran for Predicting the Reservoir Pressure on Oil Production in a Multiple Leases Reservoir with Boundary Element Method

Authors: N. Alias, W. Z. W. Muhammad, M. N. M. Ibrahim, M. Mohamed, H. F. S. Saipol, U. N. Z. Ariffin, N. A. Zakaria, M. S. Z. Suardi

Abstract:

This paper presents the performance comparison of some computation software for solving the boundary element method (BEM). BEM formulation is the numerical technique and high potential for solving the advance mathematical modeling to predict the production of oil well in arbitrarily shaped based on multiple leases reservoir. The limitation of data validation for ensuring that a program meets the accuracy of the mathematical modeling is considered as the research motivation of this paper. Thus, based on this limitation, there are three steps involved to validate the accuracy of the oil production simulation process. In the first step, identify the mathematical modeling based on partial differential equation (PDE) with Poisson-elliptic type to perform the BEM discretization. In the second step, implement the simulation of the 2D BEM discretization using COMSOL Multiphysic and MATLAB programming languages. In the last step, analyze the numerical performance indicators for both programming languages by using the validation of Fortran programming. The performance comparisons of numerical analysis are investigated in terms of percentage error, comparison graph and 2D visualization of pressure on oil production of multiple leases reservoir. According to the performance comparison, the structured programming in Fortran programming is the alternative software for implementing the accurate numerical simulation of BEM. As a conclusion, high-level language for numerical computation and numerical performance evaluation are satisfied to prove that Fortran is well suited for capturing the visualization of the production of oil well in arbitrarily shaped.

Keywords: performance comparison, 2D visualization, COMSOL multiphysic, MATLAB, Fortran, modelling and simulation, boundary element method, reservoir pressure

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3076 Data Centers’ Temperature Profile Simulation Optimized by Finite Elements and Discretization Methods

Authors: José Alberto García Fernández, Zhimin Du, Xinqiao Jin

Abstract:

Nowadays, data center industry faces strong challenges for increasing the speed and data processing capacities while at the same time is trying to keep their devices a suitable working temperature without penalizing that capacity. Consequently, the cooling systems of this kind of facilities use a large amount of energy to dissipate the heat generated inside the servers, and developing new cooling techniques or perfecting those already existing would be a great advance in this type of industry. The installation of a temperature sensor matrix distributed in the structure of each server would provide the necessary information for collecting the required data for obtaining a temperature profile instantly inside them. However, the number of temperature probes required to obtain the temperature profiles with sufficient accuracy is very high and expensive. Therefore, other less intrusive techniques are employed where each point that characterizes the server temperature profile is obtained by solving differential equations through simulation methods, simplifying data collection techniques but increasing the time to obtain results. In order to reduce these calculation times, complicated and slow computational fluid dynamics simulations are replaced by simpler and faster finite element method simulations which solve the Burgers‘ equations by backward, forward and central discretization techniques after simplifying the energy and enthalpy conservation differential equations. The discretization methods employed for solving the first and second order derivatives of the obtained Burgers‘ equation after these simplifications are the key for obtaining results with greater or lesser accuracy regardless of the characteristic truncation error.

Keywords: Burgers' equations, CFD simulation, data center, discretization methods, FEM simulation, temperature profile

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3075 A Multi-Output Network with U-Net Enhanced Class Activation Map and Robust Classification Performance for Medical Imaging Analysis

Authors: Jaiden Xuan Schraut, Leon Liu, Yiqiao Yin

Abstract:

Computer vision in medical diagnosis has achieved a high level of success in diagnosing diseases with high accuracy. However, conventional classifiers that produce an image to-label result provides insufficient information for medical professionals to judge and raise concerns over the trust and reliability of a model with results that cannot be explained. In order to gain local insight into cancerous regions, separate tasks such as imaging segmentation need to be implemented to aid the doctors in treating patients, which doubles the training time and costs which renders the diagnosis system inefficient and difficult to be accepted by the public. To tackle this issue and drive AI-first medical solutions further, this paper proposes a multi-output network that follows a U-Net architecture for image segmentation output and features an additional convolutional neural networks (CNN) module for auxiliary classification output. Class activation maps are a method of providing insight into a convolutional neural network’s feature maps that leads to its classification but in the case of lung diseases, the region of interest is enhanced by U-net-assisted Class Activation Map (CAM) visualization. Therefore, our proposed model combines image segmentation models and classifiers to crop out only the lung region of a chest X-ray’s class activation map to provide a visualization that improves the explainability and is able to generate classification results simultaneously which builds trust for AI-led diagnosis systems. The proposed U-Net model achieves 97.61% accuracy and a dice coefficient of 0.97 on testing data from the COVID-QU-Ex Dataset which includes both diseased and healthy lungs.

Keywords: multi-output network model, U-net, class activation map, image classification, medical imaging analysis

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3074 Ulnar Nerve Changes Associated with Carpal Tunnel Syndrome and Effect on Median Ersus Ulnar Comparative Studies

Authors: Emmanuel K. Aziz Saba, Sarah S. El-Tawab

Abstract:

Objectives: Carpal tunnel syndrome (CTS) was found to be associated with high pressure within the Guyon’s canal. The aim of this study was to assess the involvement of sensory and/or motor ulnar nerve fibers in patients with CTS and whether this affects the accuracy of the median versus ulnar sensory and motor comparative tests. Patients and methods: The present study included 145 CTS hands and 71 asymptomatic control hands. Clinical examination was done for all patients. The following tests were done for the patients and control: (1) Sensory conduction studies: median nerve, ulnar nerve, dorsal ulnar cutaneous nerve and median versus ulnar digit (D) four sensory comparative study; (2) Motor conduction studies: median nerve, ulnar nerve and median versus ulnar motor comparative study. Results: There were no statistically significant differences between patients and control group as regards parameters of ulnar motor study and dorsal ulnar cutaneous sensory conduction study. It was found that 17 CTS hands (11.7%) had ulnar sensory abnormalities in 17 different patients. The median versus ulnar sensory and motor comparative studies were abnormal among all these 17 CTS hands. There were statistically significant negative correlations between median motor latency and both ulnar sensory amplitudes recording D5 and D4. There were statistically significant positive correlations between median sensory conduction velocity and both ulnar sensory nerve action potential amplitude recording D5 and D4. Conclusions: There is ulnar sensory nerve abnormality among CTS patients. This abnormality affects the amplitude of ulnar sensory nerve action potential. The presence of abnormalities in ulnar nerve occurs in moderate and severe degrees of CTS. This does not affect the median versus ulnar sensory and motor comparative tests accuracy and validity for use in electrophysiological diagnosis of CTS.

Keywords: carpal tunnel syndrome, ulnar nerve, median nerve, median versus ulnar comparative study, dorsal ulnar cutaneous nerve

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3073 Experimental Optimization in Diamond Lapping of Plasma Sprayed Ceramic Coatings

Authors: S. Gowri, K. Narayanasamy, R. Krishnamurthy

Abstract:

Plasma spraying, from the point of value engineering, is considered as a cost-effective technique to deposit high performance ceramic coatings on ferrous substrates for use in the aero,automobile,electronics and semiconductor industries. High-performance ceramics such as Alumina, Zirconia, and titania-based ceramics have become a key part of turbine blades,automotive cylinder liners,microelectronic and semiconductor components due to their ability to insulate and distribute heat. However, as the industries continue to advance, improved methods are needed to increase both the flexibility and speed of ceramic processing in these applications. The ceramics mentioned were individually coated on structural steel substrate with NiCr bond coat of 50-70 micron thickness with the final thickness in the range of 150 to 200 microns. Optimal spray parameters were selected based on bond strength and porosity. The 'optimal' processed specimens were super finished by lapping using diamond and green SiC abrasives. Interesting results could be observed as follows: The green SiC could improve the surface finish of lapped surfaces almost as that by diamond in case of alumina and titania based ceramics but the diamond abrasives could improve the surface finish of PSZ better than that by green SiC. The conventional random scratches could be absent in alumina and titania ceramics but in PS those marks were found to be less. However, the flatness accuracy could be improved unto 60 to 85%. The surface finish and geometrical accuracy were measured and modeled. The abrasives in the midrange of their particle size could improve the surface quality faster and better than the particles of size in low and high ranges. From the experimental investigations after lapping process, the optimal lapping time, abrasive size, lapping pressure etc could be evaluated.

Keywords: atmospheric plasma spraying, ceramics, lapping, surface qulaity, optimization

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3072 Transformer-Driven Multi-Category Classification for an Automated Academic Strand Recommendation Framework

Authors: Ma Cecilia Siva

Abstract:

This study introduces a Bidirectional Encoder Representations from Transformers (BERT)-based machine learning model aimed at improving educational counseling by automating the process of recommending academic strands for students. The framework is designed to streamline and enhance the strand selection process by analyzing students' profiles and suggesting suitable academic paths based on their interests, strengths, and goals. Data was gathered from a sample of 200 grade 10 students, which included personal essays and survey responses relevant to strand alignment. After thorough preprocessing, the text data was tokenized, label-encoded, and input into a fine-tuned BERT model set up for multi-label classification. The model was optimized for balanced accuracy and computational efficiency, featuring a multi-category classification layer with sigmoid activation for independent strand predictions. Performance metrics showed an F1 score of 88%, indicating a well-balanced model with precision at 80% and recall at 100%, demonstrating its effectiveness in providing reliable recommendations while reducing irrelevant strand suggestions. To facilitate practical use, the final deployment phase created a recommendation framework that processes new student data through the trained model and generates personalized academic strand suggestions. This automated recommendation system presents a scalable solution for academic guidance, potentially enhancing student satisfaction and alignment with educational objectives. The study's findings indicate that expanding the data set, integrating additional features, and refining the model iteratively could improve the framework's accuracy and broaden its applicability in various educational contexts.

Keywords: tokenized, sigmoid activation, transformer, multi category classification

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3071 An Absolute Femtosecond Rangefinder for Metrological Support in Coordinate Measurements

Authors: Denis A. Sokolov, Andrey V. Mazurkevich

Abstract:

In the modern world, there is an increasing demand for highly precise measurements in various fields, such as aircraft, shipbuilding, and rocket engineering. This has resulted in the development of appropriate measuring instruments that are capable of measuring the coordinates of objects within a range of up to 100 meters, with an accuracy of up to one micron. The calibration process for such optoelectronic measuring devices (trackers and total stations) involves comparing the measurement results from these devices to a reference measurement based on a linear or spatial basis. The reference used in such measurements could be a reference base or a reference range finder with the capability to measure angle increments (EDM). The base would serve as a set of reference points for this purpose. The concept of the EDM for replicating the unit of measurement has been implemented on a mobile platform, which allows for angular changes in the direction of laser radiation in two planes. To determine the distance to an object, a high-precision interferometer with its own design is employed. The laser radiation travels to the corner reflectors, which form a spatial reference with precisely known positions. When the femtosecond pulses from the reference arm and the measuring arm coincide, an interference signal is created, repeating at the frequency of the laser pulses. The distance between reference points determined by interference signals is calculated in accordance with recommendations from the International Bureau of Weights and Measures for the indirect measurement of time of light passage according to the definition of a meter. This distance is D/2 = c/2nF, approximately 2.5 meters, where c is the speed of light in a vacuum, n is the refractive index of a medium, and F is the frequency of femtosecond pulse repetition. The achieved uncertainty of type A measurement of the distance to reflectors 64 m (N•D/2, where N is an integer) away and spaced apart relative to each other at a distance of 1 m does not exceed 5 microns. The angular uncertainty is calculated theoretically since standard high-precision ring encoders will be used and are not a focus of research in this study. The Type B uncertainty components are not taken into account either, as the components that contribute most do not depend on the selected coordinate measuring method. This technology is being explored in the context of laboratory applications under controlled environmental conditions, where it is possible to achieve an advantage in terms of accuracy. In general, the EDM tests showed high accuracy, and theoretical calculations and experimental studies on an EDM prototype have shown that the uncertainty type A of distance measurements to reflectors can be less than 1 micrometer. The results of this research will be utilized to develop a highly accurate mobile absolute range finder designed for the calibration of high-precision laser trackers and laser rangefinders, as well as other equipment, using a 64 meter laboratory comparator as a reference.

Keywords: femtosecond laser, pulse correlation, interferometer, laser absolute range finder, coordinate measurement

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3070 Isolation, Characterization and Quantitation of Anticancer Constituent from Chloroform Extract of N. arbortristis L. Leaves

Authors: Parul Grover, K. A. Suri, Raj Kumar, Gulshan Bansal

Abstract:

Background: Nyctanthes arbortristis Linn is traditionally used as anticancer herb in Indian system of medicine, but its introduction into modern system of medicine is still awaited due to lack of systematic scientific studies. Objective: The objective of the present study was to isolate and characterize anticancer phytoconstituents from N. arbortristis L. leaves based on bioactivity guided fractionation. Method: Different extracts of the leaves of the plant were prepared by Soxhlet extractor. Each extract was evaluated for anticancer activity against HL-60 cell lines. Chloroform and HA extract showed potent anticancer activity and hence were selected for fractionation. Fraction C1 from chloroform extract was found to be most potent amongst all when tested against three cell lines (HL-60, A-549, and HCT-116) and thus was selected for further fractionation and a pure compound CP-01 was isolated. RP-HPLC method has been developed for quantification of isolated compound by using Kinetex C-18 column with gradient elution at 0.7 mL/min using mobile phase containing potassium dihydrogen phosphate (0.01 M, pH 3.0) with acetonitrile. The wavelength of maximum absorption (λₘₐₓ) selected was 210 nm. Results: The structure of potent anticancer CP-01 was determined on the basis spectroscopic methods like IR, 1H-NMR, ¹³C-NMR and Mass Spectrometry and it was characterized as 1,1,2-tris(2’,4’-di-tert-butylbenzene)-4,4-dimethyl-pent-1-ene. The content of CP-01 was found to be 0.88 %w/w of chloroform extract and 0.08 %w/w of N.arbortristis leaves. Conclusion: The study supports the traditional use of N. arbortristis as anticancer herb & the identified compound CP-01 can serve as an excellent lead to develop potent and safe anticancer drugs.

Keywords: anticancer, HL-60 cell lines, Nyctanthes arbor-tristis, RP-HPLC

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3069 Hydrological Modeling and Climate Change Impact Assessment Using HBV Model, A Case Study of Karnali River Basin of Nepal

Authors: Sagar Shiwakoti, Narendra Man Shakya

Abstract:

The lumped conceptual hydrological model HBV is applied to the Karnali River Basin to estimate runoff at several gauging stations and to analyze the changes in catchment hydrology and future flood magnitude due to climate change. The performance of the model is analyzed to assess its suitability to simulate streamflow in snow fed mountainous catchments. Due to the structural complexity, the model shows difficulties in modeling low and high flows accurately at the same time. It is observed that the low flows were generally underestimated and the peaks were correctly estimated except for some sharp peaks due to isolated precipitation events. In this study, attempt has been made to evaluate the importance of snow melt discharge in the runoff regime of the basin. Quantification of contribution of snowmelt to annual, summer and winter runoff has been done. The contribution is highest at the beginning of the hot months as the accumulated snow begins to melt. Examination of this contribution under conditions of increased temperatures indicate that global warming leading to increase in average basin temperature will significantly lead to higher contributions to runoff from snowmelt. Forcing the model with the output of HadCM3 GCM and the A1B scenario downscaled to the station level show significant changes to catchment hydrology in the 2040s. It is observed that the increase in runoff is most extreme in June - July. A shift in the hydrological regime is also observed.

Keywords: hydrological modeling, HBV light, rainfall runoff modeling, snow melt, climate change

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3068 Evaluation of Classification Algorithms for Diagnosis of Asthma in Iranian Patients

Authors: Taha SamadSoltani, Peyman Rezaei Hachesu, Marjan GhaziSaeedi, Maryam Zolnoori

Abstract:

Introduction: Data mining defined as a process to find patterns and relationships along data in the database to build predictive models. Application of data mining extended in vast sectors such as the healthcare services. Medical data mining aims to solve real-world problems in the diagnosis and treatment of diseases. This method applies various techniques and algorithms which have different accuracy and precision. The purpose of this study was to apply knowledge discovery and data mining techniques for the diagnosis of asthma based on patient symptoms and history. Method: Data mining includes several steps and decisions should be made by the user which starts by creation of an understanding of the scope and application of previous knowledge in this area and identifying KD process from the point of view of the stakeholders and finished by acting on discovered knowledge using knowledge conducting, integrating knowledge with other systems and knowledge documenting and reporting.in this study a stepwise methodology followed to achieve a logical outcome. Results: Sensitivity, Specifity and Accuracy of KNN, SVM, Naïve bayes, NN, Classification tree and CN2 algorithms and related similar studies was evaluated and ROC curves were plotted to show the performance of the system. Conclusion: The results show that we can accurately diagnose asthma, approximately ninety percent, based on the demographical and clinical data. The study also showed that the methods based on pattern discovery and data mining have a higher sensitivity compared to expert and knowledge-based systems. On the other hand, medical guidelines and evidence-based medicine should be base of diagnostics methods, therefore recommended to machine learning algorithms used in combination with knowledge-based algorithms.

Keywords: asthma, datamining, classification, machine learning

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3067 ARABEX: Automated Dotted Arabic Expiration Date Extraction using Optimized Convolutional Autoencoder and Custom Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network

Authors: Hozaifa Zaki, Ghada Soliman

Abstract:

In this paper, we introduced an approach for Automated Dotted Arabic Expiration Date Extraction using Optimized Convolutional Autoencoder (ARABEX) with bidirectional LSTM. This approach is used for translating the Arabic dot-matrix expiration dates into their corresponding filled-in dates. A custom lightweight Convolutional Recurrent Neural Network (CRNN) model is then employed to extract the expiration dates. Due to the lack of available dataset images for the Arabic dot-matrix expiration date, we generated synthetic images by creating an Arabic dot-matrix True Type Font (TTF) matrix to address this limitation. Our model was trained on a realistic synthetic dataset of 3287 images, covering the period from 2019 to 2027, represented in the format of yyyy/mm/dd. We then trained our custom CRNN model using the generated synthetic images to assess the performance of our model (ARABEX) by extracting expiration dates from the translated images. Our proposed approach achieved an accuracy of 99.4% on the test dataset of 658 images, while also achieving a Structural Similarity Index (SSIM) of 0.46 for image translation on our dataset. The ARABEX approach demonstrates its ability to be applied to various downstream learning tasks, including image translation and reconstruction. Moreover, this pipeline (ARABEX+CRNN) can be seamlessly integrated into automated sorting systems to extract expiry dates and sort products accordingly during the manufacturing stage. By eliminating the need for manual entry of expiration dates, which can be time-consuming and inefficient for merchants, our approach offers significant results in terms of efficiency and accuracy for Arabic dot-matrix expiration date recognition.

Keywords: computer vision, deep learning, image processing, character recognition

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3066 Italian Speech Vowels Landmark Detection through the Legacy Tool 'xkl' with Integration of Combined CNNs and RNNs

Authors: Kaleem Kashif, Tayyaba Anam, Yizhi Wu

Abstract:

This paper introduces a methodology for advancing Italian speech vowels landmark detection within the distinctive feature-based speech recognition domain. Leveraging the legacy tool 'xkl' by integrating combined convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and recurrent neural networks (RNNs), the study presents a comprehensive enhancement to the 'xkl' legacy software. This integration incorporates re-assigned spectrogram methodologies, enabling meticulous acoustic analysis. Simultaneously, our proposed model, integrating combined CNNs and RNNs, demonstrates unprecedented precision and robustness in landmark detection. The augmentation of re-assigned spectrogram fusion within the 'xkl' software signifies a meticulous advancement, particularly enhancing precision related to vowel formant estimation. This augmentation catalyzes unparalleled accuracy in landmark detection, resulting in a substantial performance leap compared to conventional methods. The proposed model emerges as a state-of-the-art solution in the distinctive feature-based speech recognition systems domain. In the realm of deep learning, a synergistic integration of combined CNNs and RNNs is introduced, endowed with specialized temporal embeddings, harnessing self-attention mechanisms, and positional embeddings. The proposed model allows it to excel in capturing intricate dependencies within Italian speech vowels, rendering it highly adaptable and sophisticated in the distinctive feature domain. Furthermore, our advanced temporal modeling approach employs Bayesian temporal encoding, refining the measurement of inter-landmark intervals. Comparative analysis against state-of-the-art models reveals a substantial improvement in accuracy, highlighting the robustness and efficacy of the proposed methodology. Upon rigorous testing on a database (LaMIT) speech recorded in a silent room by four Italian native speakers, the landmark detector demonstrates exceptional performance, achieving a 95% true detection rate and a 10% false detection rate. A majority of missed landmarks were observed in proximity to reduced vowels. These promising results underscore the robust identifiability of landmarks within the speech waveform, establishing the feasibility of employing a landmark detector as a front end in a speech recognition system. The synergistic integration of re-assigned spectrogram fusion, CNNs, RNNs, and Bayesian temporal encoding not only signifies a significant advancement in Italian speech vowels landmark detection but also positions the proposed model as a leader in the field. The model offers distinct advantages, including unparalleled accuracy, adaptability, and sophistication, marking a milestone in the intersection of deep learning and distinctive feature-based speech recognition. This work contributes to the broader scientific community by presenting a methodologically rigorous framework for enhancing landmark detection accuracy in Italian speech vowels. The integration of cutting-edge techniques establishes a foundation for future advancements in speech signal processing, emphasizing the potential of the proposed model in practical applications across various domains requiring robust speech recognition systems.

Keywords: landmark detection, acoustic analysis, convolutional neural network, recurrent neural network

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3065 Potentially Toxic Cyanobacteria and Quantification of Microcystins/Nodularins and Cylindspermopsine in Four Dams of Guanajuato, Mexico

Authors: Laura Valdés-Santiago, José Luis Castro-Guillén, Jorge Noé García-Chávez, Rosalba Alonso-Rodríguez, Rafael Vargas-Bernal

Abstract:

The quality and availability of the water contained in dams (artificial bodies of water) are at risk due to the presence of uncontrolled growths of cyanobacteria capable of producing cyanotoxins that affect the ecosystem and harm the health of humans and animals. The physicochemical properties were measured, and the degree of eutrophy of four dams from Guanajuato was determined. They presented a pH of 6.1 to 8.4, conductivity of 121 to 415 μS/cm², chlorophyll of 0.43-42.43 μg/L, NO₃- 0-1.2 mg/L and PO₄3- 0.11 to 0.84 mg/L; considering these parameters, the prey most prone to the development of cyanobacterial blooms were El Palote dam, La Purísima dam, and Allende dam, but not El Conejo dam. The potentially toxic cyanobacteria identified were Planktothrix agardhii, Oscillatoria sp., Raphidiopsis sp., and Microcystis sp., Microcystin-LR, Nodularin, and Cylindrospermopsin were quantified, presenting values between 0.08-0.42 and 0.02-2.05 ppb, respectively, the water bodies with the highest concentration were El Palote dam and La Purísima dam. Microcystin-LR and/or Nodularin levels are within the guideline values for human consumption in drinking water established by the World Health Organization for Microcystin-LR and for Cylindrospermopsin by the Oregon Health Authority (OHA) in all dams. This work is relevant due to the use of these bodies of water for agriculture and human consumption in the state, and the presence of toxin-producing cyanobacteria can represent an environmental, ecotoxicological, and health problem, so it is recommended to establish a program of frequent monitoring of cyanobacteria and cyanotoxins in the state's dams.

Keywords: Planktrothrix agardhii, Raphidiopsis sp., Microcystis sp., Cyanobacterial blooms, Cyanotoxins

Procedia PDF Downloads 80
3064 Improved Distance Estimation in Dynamic Environments through Multi-Sensor Fusion with Extended Kalman Filter

Authors: Iffat Ara Ebu, Fahmida Islam, Mohammad Abdus Shahid Rafi, Mahfuzur Rahman, Umar Iqbal, John Ball

Abstract:

The application of multi-sensor fusion for enhanced distance estimation accuracy in dynamic environments is crucial for advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS) and autonomous vehicles. Limitations of single sensors such as cameras or radar in adverse conditions motivate the use of combined camera and radar data to improve reliability, adaptability, and object recognition. A multi-sensor fusion approach using an extended Kalman filter (EKF) is proposed to combine sensor measurements with a dynamic system model, achieving robust and accurate distance estimation. The research utilizes the Mississippi State University Autonomous Vehicular Simulator (MAVS) to create a controlled environment for data collection. Data analysis is performed using MATLAB. Qualitative (visualization of fused data vs ground truth) and quantitative metrics (RMSE, MAE) are employed for performance assessment. Initial results with simulated data demonstrate accurate distance estimation compared to individual sensors. The optimal sensor measurement noise variance and plant noise variance parameters within the EKF are identified, and the algorithm is validated with real-world data from a Chevrolet Blazer. In summary, this research demonstrates that multi-sensor fusion with an EKF significantly improves distance estimation accuracy in dynamic environments. This is supported by comprehensive evaluation metrics, with validation transitioning from simulated to real-world data, paving the way for safer and more reliable autonomous vehicle control.

Keywords: sensor fusion, EKF, MATLAB, MAVS, autonomous vehicle, ADAS

Procedia PDF Downloads 43
3063 Static Test Pad for Solid Rocket Motors

Authors: Svanik Garg

Abstract:

Static Test Pads are stationary mechanisms that hold a solid rocket motor, measuring the different parameters of its operation including thrust and temperature to better calibrate it for launch. This paper outlines a specific STP designed to test high powered rocket motors with a thrust upwards of 4000N and limited to 6500N. The design includes a specific portable mechanism with cost an integral part of the design process to make it accessible to small scale rocket developers with limited resources. Using curved surfaces and an ergonomic design, the STP has a delicately engineered façade/case with a focus on stability and axial calibration of thrust. This paper describes the design, operation and working of the STP and its widescale uses given the growing market of aviation enthusiasts. Simulations on the CAD model in Fusion 360 provided promising results with a safety factor of 2 established and stress limited along with the load coefficient A PCB was also designed as part of the test pad design process to help obtain results, with visual output and various virtual terminals to collect data of different parameters. The circuitry was simulated using ‘proteus’ and a special virtual interface with auditory commands was also created for accessibility and wide-scale implementation. Along with this description of the design, the paper also emphasizes the design principle behind the STP including a description of its vertical orientation to maximize thrust accuracy along with a stable base to prevent micromovements. Given the rise of students and professionals alike building high powered rockets, the STP described in this paper is an appropriate option, with limited cost, portability, accuracy, and versatility. There are two types of STP’s vertical or horizontal, the one discussed in this paper is vertical to utilize the axial component of thrust.

Keywords: static test pad, rocket motor, thrust, load, circuit, avionics, drag

Procedia PDF Downloads 380
3062 Vehicle Activity Characterization Approach to Quantify On-Road Mobile Source Emissions

Authors: Hatem Abou-Senna, Essam Radwan

Abstract:

Transportation agencies and researchers in the past have estimated emissions using one average speed and volume on a long stretch of roadway. Other methods provided better accuracy utilizing annual average estimates. Travel demand models provided an intermediate level of detail through average daily volumes. Currently, higher accuracy can be established utilizing microscopic analyses by splitting the network links into sub-links and utilizing second-by-second trajectories to calculate emissions. The need to accurately quantify transportation-related emissions from vehicles is essential. This paper presents an examination of four different approaches to capture the environmental impacts of vehicular operations on a 10-mile stretch of Interstate 4 (I-4), an urban limited access highway in Orlando, Florida. First, (at the most basic level), emissions were estimated for the entire 10-mile section 'by hand' using one average traffic volume and average speed. Then, three advanced levels of detail were studied using VISSIM/MOVES to analyze smaller links: average speeds and volumes (AVG), second-by-second link drive schedules (LDS), and second-by-second operating mode distributions (OPMODE). This paper analyzes how the various approaches affect predicted emissions of CO, NOx, PM2.5, PM10, and CO2. The results demonstrate that obtaining precise and comprehensive operating mode distributions on a second-by-second basis provides more accurate emission estimates. Specifically, emission rates are highly sensitive to stop-and-go traffic and the associated driving cycles of acceleration, deceleration, and idling. Using the AVG or LDS approach may overestimate or underestimate emissions, respectively, compared to an operating mode distribution approach.

Keywords: limited access highways, MOVES, operating mode distribution (OPMODE), transportation emissions, vehicle specific power (VSP)

Procedia PDF Downloads 339
3061 Transcriptome Analysis of Protestia brevitarsis seulensis with Focus On Wing Development and Metamorphosis in Developmental Stages

Authors: Jihye Hwang, Eun Hwa Choi, Su Youn Baek, Bia Park, Gyeongmin Kim, Chorong Shin, Joon Ha Lee, Jae-Sam Hwang, Ui Wook Hwang

Abstract:

White-spotted flower chafers are widely distributed in Asian countries and traditionally used for the treatment of chronic fatigue, blood circulation, and paralysis in the oriental medicine field. The evolution and development of insect wings and metamorphosis remain under-discovered subjects in arthropod evolutionary researches. Gene expression abundance analyses along with developmental stages based on the large-scale RNA-seq data are also still rarely done. Here we report the de novo assembly of a Protestia brevitarsis seulensis transcriptome along four different developmental stages (egg, larva, pupa, and adult) to explore its development and evolution of wings and metamorphosis. The de novo transcriptome assembly consists of 23,551 high-quality transcripts and is approximately 96.7% complete. Out of 8,545 transcripts, 5,183 correspond to the possible orthologs with Drosophila melanogaster. As a result, we could found 265 genes related to wing development and 19 genes related to metamorphosis. The comparison of transcript expression abundance with different developmental stages revealed developmental stage-specific transcripts especially working at the stage of wing development and metamorphosis of P. b. seulensis. This transcriptome quantification along the developmental stages may provide some meaningful clues to elucidate the genetic modulation mechanism of wing development and metamorphosis obtained during the insect evolution.

Keywords: white-spotted flower chafers, transcriptomics, RNA-seq, network biology, wing development, metamorphosis

Procedia PDF Downloads 229
3060 Characterization and Quantification of Relatives Amounts of Phosphorylated Glucosyl Residues in C6 and C3 Position in Banana Starch Granules by 31P-NMR

Authors: Renata Shitakubo, Hanyu Yangcheng, Jay-lin Jane, Fernanda Peroni Okita, Beatriz Cordenunsi

Abstract:

In the degradation transitory starch model, the enzymatic activity of glucan/water dikinase (GWD) and phosphoglucan/water dikinase (PWD) are essential for the granule degradation. GWD and PWD phosphorylate glucose molecules in the positions C6 and C3, respectively, in the amylopectin chains. This action is essential to allow that β-amylase degrade starch granules without previous action of α-amylase. During banana starch degradation, as part of banana ripening, both α- and β-amylases activities and proteins were already detected and, it is also known that there is a GWD and PWD protein bounded to the starch granule. Therefore, the aim of this study was to quantify both Gluc-6P and Gluc-3P in order to estimate the importance of the GWD-PWD-β-amylase pathway in banana starch degradation. Starch granules were isolated as described by Peroni-Okita et al (Carbohydrate Polymers, 81:291-299, 2010), from banana fruit at different stages of ripening, green (20.7%), intermediate (18.2%) and ripe (6.2%). Total phosphorus content was determinate following the Smith and Caruso method (1964). Gluc-6P and Gluc-3P quantifications were performed as described by Lim et al (Cereal Chemistry, 71(5):488-493, 1994). Total phosphorous content in green banana starch is found as 0.009%, intermediary banana starch 0.006% and ripe banana starch 0.004%, both by the colorimetric method and 31P-NMR. The NMR analysis showed the phosphorus content in C6 and C3. The results by NMR indicate that the amylopectin is phosphorylate by GWD and PWD before the bananas become ripen. Since both the total content of phosphorus and phosphorylated glucose molecules at positions C3 and C6 decrease with the starch degradation, it can be concluded that this phosphorylation occurs only in the surface of the starch granule and before the fruit be harvested.

Keywords: starch, GWD, PWD, 31P-NMR

Procedia PDF Downloads 455
3059 Multi-Label Approach to Facilitate Test Automation Based on Historical Data

Authors: Warda Khan, Remo Lachmann, Adarsh S. Garakahally

Abstract:

The increasing complexity of software and its applicability in a wide range of industries, e.g., automotive, call for enhanced quality assurance techniques. Test automation is one option to tackle the prevailing challenges by supporting test engineers with fast, parallel, and repetitive test executions. A high degree of test automation allows for a shift from mundane (manual) testing tasks to a more analytical assessment of the software under test. However, a high initial investment of test resources is required to establish test automation, which is, in most cases, a limitation to the time constraints provided for quality assurance of complex software systems. Hence, a computer-aided creation of automated test cases is crucial to increase the benefit of test automation. This paper proposes the application of machine learning for the generation of automated test cases. It is based on supervised learning to analyze test specifications and existing test implementations. The analysis facilitates the identification of patterns between test steps and their implementation with test automation components. For the test case generation, this approach exploits historical data of test automation projects. The identified patterns are the foundation to predict the implementation of unknown test case specifications. Based on this support, a test engineer solely has to review and parameterize the test automation components instead of writing them manually, resulting in a significant time reduction for establishing test automation. Compared to other generation approaches, this ML-based solution can handle different writing styles, authors, application domains, and even languages. Furthermore, test automation tools require expert knowledge by means of programming skills, whereas this approach only requires historical data to generate test cases. The proposed solution is evaluated using various multi-label evaluation criteria (EC) and two small-sized real-world systems. The most prominent EC is ‘Subset Accuracy’. The promising results show an accuracy of at least 86% for test cases, where a 1:1 relationship (Multi-Class) between test step specification and test automation component exists. For complex multi-label problems, i.e., one test step can be implemented by several components, the prediction accuracy is still at 60%. It is better than the current state-of-the-art results. It is expected the prediction quality to increase for larger systems with respective historical data. Consequently, this technique facilitates the time reduction for establishing test automation and is thereby independent of the application domain and project. As a work in progress, the next steps are to investigate incremental and active learning as additions to increase the usability of this approach, e.g., in case labelled historical data is scarce.

Keywords: machine learning, multi-class, multi-label, supervised learning, test automation

Procedia PDF Downloads 132
3058 Application of Argumentation for Improving the Classification Accuracy in Inductive Concept Formation

Authors: Vadim Vagin, Marina Fomina, Oleg Morosin

Abstract:

This paper contains the description of argumentation approach for the problem of inductive concept formation. It is proposed to use argumentation, based on defeasible reasoning with justification degrees, to improve the quality of classification models, obtained by generalization algorithms. The experiment’s results on both clear and noisy data are also presented.

Keywords: argumentation, justification degrees, inductive concept formation, noise, generalization

Procedia PDF Downloads 442
3057 Stability-Indicating High-Performance Thin-Layer Chromatography Method for Estimation of Naftopidil

Authors: P. S. Jain, K. D. Bobade, S. J. Surana

Abstract:

A simple, selective, precise and Stability-indicating High-performance thin-layer chromatographic method for analysis of Naftopidil both in a bulk and in pharmaceutical formulation has been developed and validated. The method employed, HPTLC aluminium plates precoated with silica gel as the stationary phase. The solvent system consisted of hexane: ethyl acetate: glacial acetic acid (4:4:2 v/v). The system was found to give compact spot for Naftopidil (Rf value of 0.43±0.02). Densitometric analysis of Naftopidil was carried out in the absorbance mode at 253 nm. The linear regression analysis data for the calibration plots showed good linear relationship with r2=0.999±0.0001 with respect to peak area in the concentration range 200-1200 ng per spot. The method was validated for precision, recovery and robustness. The limits of detection and quantification were 20.35 and 61.68 ng per spot, respectively. Naftopidil was subjected to acid and alkali hydrolysis, oxidation and thermal degradation. The drug undergoes degradation under acidic, basic, oxidation and thermal conditions. This indicates that the drug is susceptible to acid, base, oxidation and thermal conditions. The degraded product was well resolved from the pure drug with significantly different Rf value. Statistical analysis proves that the method is repeatable, selective and accurate for the estimation of investigated drug. The proposed developed HPTLC method can be applied for identification and quantitative determination of Naftopidil in bulk drug and pharmaceutical formulation.

Keywords: naftopidil, HPTLC, validation, stability, degradation

Procedia PDF Downloads 400
3056 Bottom-up Quantification of Mega Inter-Basin Water Transfer Vulnerability to Climate Change

Authors: Enze Zhang

Abstract:

Large numbers of inter-basin water transfer (IBWT) projects are constructed or proposed all around the world as solutions to water distribution and supply problems. Nowadays, as climate change warms the atmosphere, alters the hydrologic cycle, and perturbs water availability, large scale IBWTs which are sensitive to these water-related changes may carry significant risk. Given this reality, IBWTs have elicited great controversy and assessments of vulnerability to climate change are urgently needed worldwide. In this paper, we consider the South-to-North Water Transfer Project (SNWTP) in China as a case study, and introduce a bottom-up vulnerability assessment framework. Key hazards and risks related to climate change that threaten future water availability for the SNWTP are firstly identified. Then a performance indicator is presented to quantify the vulnerability of IBWT by taking three main elements (i.e., sensitivity, adaptive capacity, and exposure degree) into account. A probabilistic Budyko model is adapted to estimate water availability responses to a wide range of possibilities for future climate conditions in each region of the study area. After bottom-up quantifying the vulnerability based on the estimated water availability, our findings confirm that SNWTP would greatly alleviate geographical imbalances in water availability under some moderate climate change scenarios but raises questions about whether it is a long-term solution because the donor basin has a high level of vulnerability due to extreme climate change.

Keywords: vulnerability, climate change, inter-basin water transfer, bottom-up

Procedia PDF Downloads 400
3055 Vibro-Tactile Equalizer for Musical Energy-Valence Categorization

Authors: Dhanya Nair, Nicholas Mirchandani

Abstract:

Musical haptic systems can enhance a listener’s musical experience while providing an alternative platform for the hearing impaired to experience music. Current music tactile technologies focus on representing tactile metronomes to synchronize performers or encoding musical notes into distinguishable (albeit distracting) tactile patterns. There is growing interest in the development of musical haptic systems to augment the auditory experience, although the haptic-music relationship is still not well understood. This paper represents a tactile music interface that provides vibrations to multiple fingertips in synchronicity with auditory music. Like an audio equalizer, different frequency bands are filtered out, and the power in each frequency band is computed and converted to a corresponding vibrational strength. These vibrations are felt on different fingertips, each corresponding to a different frequency band. Songs with music from different spectrums, as classified by their energy and valence, were used to test the effectiveness of the system and to understand the relationship between music and tactile sensations. Three participants were trained on one song categorized as sad (low energy and low valence score) and one song categorized as happy (high energy and high valence score). They were trained both with and without auditory feedback (listening to the song while experiencing the tactile music on their fingertips and then experiencing the vibrations alone without the music). The participants were then tested on three songs from both categories, without any auditory feedback, and were asked to classify the tactile vibrations they felt into either category. The participants were blinded to the songs being tested and were not provided any feedback on the accuracy of their classification. These participants were able to classify the music with 100% accuracy. Although the songs tested were on two opposite spectrums (sad/happy), the preliminary results show the potential of utilizing a vibrotactile equalizer, like the one presented, for augmenting musical experience while furthering the current understanding of music tactile relationship.

Keywords: haptic music relationship, tactile equalizer, tactile music, vibrations and mood

Procedia PDF Downloads 181
3054 Detection and Distribution Pattern of Prevelant Genotypes of Hepatitis C in a Tertiary Care Hospital of Western India

Authors: Upasana Bhumbla

Abstract:

Background: Hepatitis C virus is a major cause of chronic hepatitis, which can further lead to cirrhosis of the liver and hepatocellular carcinoma. Worldwide the burden of Hepatitis C infection has become a serious threat to the human race. Hepatitis C virus (HCV) has population-specific genotypes and provides valuable epidemiological and therapeutic information. Genotyping and assessment of viral load in HCV patients are important for planning the therapeutic strategies. The aim of the study is to study the changing trends of prevalence and genotypic distribution of hepatitis C virus in a tertiary care hospital in Western India. Methods: It is a retrospective study; blood samples were collected and tested for anti HCV antibodies by ELISA in Dept. of Microbiology. In seropositive Hepatitis C patients, quantification of HCV-RNA was done by real-time PCR and in HCV-RNA positive samples, genotyping was conducted. Results: A total of 114 patients who were seropositive for Anti HCV were recruited in the study, out of which 79 (69.29%) were HCV-RNA positive. Out of these positive samples, 54 were further subjected to genotype determination using real-time PCR. Genotype was not detected in 24 samples due to low viral load; 30 samples were positive for genotype. Conclusion: Knowledge of genotype is crucial for the management of HCV infection and prediction of prognosis. Patients infected with HCV genotype 1 and 4 will have to receive Interferon and Ribavirin for 48 weeks. Patients with these genotypes show a poor sustained viral response when tested 24 weeks after completion of therapy. On the contrary, patients infected with HCV genotype 2 and 3 are reported to have a better response to therapy.

Keywords: hepatocellular, genotype, ribavarin, seropositive

Procedia PDF Downloads 127
3053 Nowcasting Indonesian Economy

Authors: Ferry Kurniawan

Abstract:

In this paper, we nowcast quarterly output growth in Indonesia by exploiting higher frequency data (monthly indicators) using a mixed-frequency factor model and exploiting both quarterly and monthly data. Nowcasting quarterly GDP in Indonesia is particularly relevant for the central bank of Indonesia which set the policy rate in the monthly Board of Governors Meeting; whereby one of the important step is the assessment of the current state of the economy. Thus, having an accurate and up-to-date quarterly GDP nowcast every time new monthly information becomes available would clearly be of interest for central bank of Indonesia, for example, as the initial assessment of the current state of the economy -including nowcast- will be used as input for longer term forecast. We consider a small scale mixed-frequency factor model to produce nowcasts. In particular, we specify variables as year-on-year growth rates thus the relation between quarterly and monthly data is expressed in year-on-year growth rates. To assess the performance of the model, we compare the nowcasts with two other approaches: autoregressive model –which is often difficult when forecasting output growth- and Mixed Data Sampling (MIDAS) regression. In particular, both mixed frequency factor model and MIDAS nowcasts are produced by exploiting the same set of monthly indicators. Hence, we compare the nowcasts performance of the two approaches directly. To preview the results, we find that by exploiting monthly indicators using mixed-frequency factor model and MIDAS regression we improve the nowcast accuracy over a benchmark simple autoregressive model that uses only quarterly frequency data. However, it is not clear whether the MIDAS or mixed-frequency factor model is better. Neither set of nowcasts encompasses the other; suggesting that both nowcasts are valuable in nowcasting GDP but neither is sufficient. By combining the two individual nowcasts, we find that the nowcast combination not only increases the accuracy - relative to individual nowcasts- but also lowers the risk of the worst performance of the individual nowcasts.

Keywords: nowcasting, mixed-frequency data, factor model, nowcasts combination

Procedia PDF Downloads 331