Search results for: order driven market

Authors: Raj Kumari Bahl, Sotirios Sabanis

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In this paper, we are concerned with the valuation of the first Catastrophic Mortality Bond that was launched in the market namely the Swiss Re Mortality Bond 2003. This bond encapsulates the behavior of a well-defined mortality index to generate payoffs for the bondholders. Pricing this bond is a challenging task. We adapt the payoff of the terminal principal of the bond in terms of the payoff of an Asian put option and present an approach to derive model-independent bounds exploiting comonotonic theory. We invoke Jensen’s inequality for the computation of lower bounds and employ Lagrange optimization technique to achieve the upper bound. The success of these bounds is based on the availability of compatible European mortality options in the market. We carry out Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the bond price and illustrate the strength of these bounds across a variety of models. The fact that our bounds are model-independent is a crucial breakthrough in the pricing of catastrophic mortality bonds.

Keywords: mortality bond, Swiss Re Bond, mortality index, comonotonicity

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Authors: Asror Nigmonov Asqar Ogli, Sitora Inoyatova Amonovna

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It has been a decade when the crowdfunding and P2P lending opportunities were created. Today, the market of these modern alternative investments is becoming increasingly complex to navigate. There are overwhelming amount of peer-to-peer lending platforms both in developed and emerging economies. This study looks into this market via the cross country empirical study. In this respect, it tests the effect of various macroeconomic factors on P2P loan lending. Based on the existing literature that largely lacks empirical investigations, it builds regression model that aims to explore the relationship between economy and P2P lending. Though the author found it extremely difficult to compare the findings with earlier studies, this paper had identified certain tendencies in the data and had certain policy implications. However, the paper could not find any significant effect of economic variables on P2P lending. The paper can be considered as a starting point in empirical investigation of P2P lending and highlights room further research based on limitations of the study.

Keywords: peer-to-peer lending, crowdfunding, marketplace lending, alternative finance, fintech

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Authors: Ons Triki, Fathi Abid

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Along with the increase in the use of leasing contracts in corporate finance, multiple studies aim to model the credit risk of the lease in order to cover the losses of the lessor of the asset if the lessee goes bankrupt. In the current research paper, a convertible lease contract is elaborated in a continuous time stochastic universe aiming to ensure the financial stability of the firm and quickly recover the losses of the counterparties to the lease in case of default. This work examines the term structure of the lease rates taking into account the credit default risk and the capital structure of the firm. The interaction between the lessee's capital structure and the equilibrium lease rate has been assessed by applying the competitive lease market argument developed by Grenadier (1996) and the endogenous structural default model set forward by Leland and Toft (1996). The cumulative probability of default was calculated by referring to Leland and Toft (1996) and Yildirim and Huan (2006). Additionally, the link between lessee credit risk and lease rate was addressed so as to explore the impact of convertible lease financing on the term structure of the lease rate, the optimal leverage ratio, the cumulative default probability, and the optimal firm value by applying an endogenous conversion threshold. The numerical analysis is suggestive that the duration structure of lease rates increases with the increase in the degree of the market price of risk. The maximal value of the firm decreases with the effect of the optimal leverage ratio. The results are indicative that the cumulative probability of default increases with the maturity of the lease contract if the volatility of the asset service flows is significant. Introducing the convertible lease contract will increase the optimal value of the firm as a function of asset volatility for a high initial service flow level and a conversion ratio close to 1.

Keywords: convertible lease contract, lease rate, credit-risk, capital structure, default probability

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Authors: Runlian Miao, Wei Xie, Hong Zhang

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In China, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is regarded as a strategically important region because itenjoys highest development in economic development, opening up, innovative capacity and andpopulation. Integrated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is increasingly emphasized by the government recently years. In 2014, it has ascended to one of the national great development strategies by Chinese central government. In 2015, Coordinated Development Planning Compendium for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region was approved. Such decisions signify Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region would lead innovation-driven economic development in China. As an essential factor to achieve national innovation-driven development and significant part of regional industry chain, the optimization of science and technology resources allocation will exert great influence to regional economic transformation and upgrading and innovation-driven development. However, unbalanced distribution, poor sharing of resources and existence of information isolated islands have contributed to different interior innovation capability, vitality and efficiency, which impeded innovation and growth of the whole region. Under such a background, to integrate and vitalize regional science and technology resources and then establish high-end, fast-responding and precise innovation service system basing on regional resources, would be of great significance for integrated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and even handling of unbalanced and insufficient development problem in China. This research uses the method of literature review and field investigation and applies related theories prevailing home and abroad, centering service path of science and technology resources for innovation. Based on the status quo and problems of regional development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, theoretically, the author proposed to combine regional economics and new economic geography to explore solution to problem of low resource allocation efficiency. Further, the author puts forward to applying digital map into resource management and building a platform for information co-building and sharing. At last, the author presents the thought to establish a specific service mode of ‘science and technology plus digital map plus intelligence research plus platform service’ and suggestion on co-building and sharing mechanism of 3 (Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei ) plus 11 (important cities in Hebei Province).

Keywords: Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, science and technology resources, innovation service, digital platform

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Authors: Silas A. Ihedioha

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In this work; it is considered that an investor’s portfolio is comprised of two assets; a risky stock which price process is driven by the geometric Brownian motion and a risk-free asset with Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Stochastic interest rate of return, where consumption, taxes, transaction costs and dividends are involved. This paper aimed at the optimization of the investor’s expected utility of consumption and terminal return on his investment at the terminal time having power utility preference. Using dynamic optimization procedure of maximum principle, a second order nonlinear partial differential equation (PDE) (the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation HJB) was obtained from which an ordinary differential equation (ODE) obtained via elimination of variables. The solution to the ODE gave the closed form solution of the investor’s problem. It was found the optimal investment in the risky asset is horizon dependent and a ratio of the total amount available for investment and the relative risk aversion coefficient.

Keywords: optimal, investment, Ornstein-Uhlenbeck, utility maximization, stochastic interest rate, maximum principle

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Authors: M. Verde, G. Falzarano

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The paper examines the connection between corporate social responsibility (CSR), capability approach and poverty reduction; in particular, the local employment development (LED) by way of CSR initiatives. The joint action of LED/CSR results in a win-win situation, not only for the enterprises but also for all the stakeholders involved; in this regard, subsidiarity and coordination between national and regional/local authorities are central to a socially-oriented market economy. In the first section, the CSR is analysed on the basis of its social function in the fight against poverty, as a 'capabilities deprivation'. In the central part, the attention is focused on the relationship between CSR and LED; ergo, on the role of the enterprises in fostering capabilities development (the employment). Besides, all the potential solutions are presented, stressing the possible combinations, in the last part. The benchmark is the enterprise as an economic and a social institution: the business should not be combined with profit merely, paying more attention to its sustainable impact and social contribution. In which way could it be possible? The answer is the CSR. The impact of CSR on poverty reduction is still little explored. The companies help to reduce poverty through economic contribution, human rights and social inclusion; hence, the business becomes an 'agent of development' in order to fight against 'inequality'. The starting point is the pyramid of social responsibility, where ethic and philanthropic responsibilities involve programmes and actions aimed at personal development of the individuals, improving human standard of living in all forms, including poverty, when people do not have a choice between different 'life options', ranging from level of education to employment. At this point, CSR comes into play and works on two dimensions: poverty reduction and poverty prevention, by means of a series of initiatives: first of all, job creation and precarious work reduction. Empowerment of the local actors, financial support and combination of top down and bottom up initiatives are some of CSR areas of activity. Several positive effects occur on individual levels of educations, access to capital, individual health status, empowerment of youth and woman, access to social networks and it was observed that these effects depend on the type of CSR strategy. Indeed, CSR programmes should take into account fundamental criteria, such as the transparency, the information about benefits, a coordination unit among institutions and more clear guidelines. In this way, the advantages to the corporate reputation and to the community translate into a better job matching on the labour market, inter alia. It is important to underline that the success depends on the specific measures of the areas in question, by adapting them to the local needs, in light of general principles and index; therefore, the concrete commitment of the all stakeholders involved is decisive in order to achieve the goals. The enterprise would represent a concrete contribution for the pursuit of sustainable development and for the dissemination of a social and well being awareness.

Keywords: capability approach, local employment development, poverty, social inclusion

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Authors: Arup Pramanik

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Most of the cities in the developing countries like Siliguri Municipal Corporation Area (SMCA) and Raiganj Municipality (RM) in West Bengal, India are changing typically in terms of demographic, economic and social relationship due to rapid pace of urbanization. The mushrooming growth of slums in SMCA and RM is the direct consequence of urbanization and migration due to regional imbalance, unbalanced growth process which is posing a serious threat to sustainable development of the country. Almost all the slums happen to be a breeding ground for poverty, negligence, and disease. Unpredictable growth of slums and poverty alleviation has now become a serious challenge to the global and national policy makers for the development of the slum dwellers. The ethical dimension of the poor in the cities like SMCA and RM stands on equal opportunities, inclusive and harmonious living without discrimination of any kind. But, the migrant slum dwellers in SMCA and RM do not possess high skill or education to enable them to find well paid employment in the formal sector and the surplus urban labour force is compelled to generate its own means of employment and survival in the informal sector. The survey data of the households has been analysedin terms of percentage, descriptive statistics which includes mean, Standard Deviation (SD), ANOVA (Mean Difference) etc., to analyse the socio economic variables of the households. The study shows that the migrant labour forces living in the slums are derived from the social security measures in both the municipal areas of SMCA and RM. The urban poor in the cities of SMCA and RM rely heavily on social capital amongst all the capital assets to help them ‘get by’ and ‘get ahead’. Despite, the slum dwellers in the study areas are vulnerable with respect to other determinants of capital assets. It is noteworthy that Indian plans of anti-poverty programmes was in a proper place even after the neo-liberal regime, where the basic idea behind the massive shift of various welfare and service oriented strategy to poverty reduction strategy for the benefit of the urban poor with the trickle down effects. But, the overall impact of the trickledown effect was unsatisfactory. The objective of the Paper is to assess the magnitude of migration and absorption in the urban labour market. Issues relating to capital formation, social security measures and the support of the Welfare State in order to meet 'Sustainable Development Goals'. This study also highlights the quality of life of urban poor migrants in terms of capital formation and livelihoods.

Keywords: migration, slums, labour market, capital formation, social security

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Authors: Ying Yi Wu

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The study of finite groups is a central topic in algebraic structures, and one of the most fundamental questions in this field is the classification of finite groups up to isomorphism. In this paper, we investigate the cyclic property of groups of prime order, which is a crucial result in the classification of finite abelian groups. We prove the following statement: If p is a prime, then every group G of order p is cyclic. Our proof utilizes the properties of group actions and the class equation, which provide a powerful tool for studying the structure of finite groups. In particular, we first show that any non-identity element of G generates a cyclic subgroup of G. Then, we establish the existence of an element of order p, which implies that G is generated by a single element. Finally, we demonstrate that any two generators of G are conjugate, which shows that G is a cyclic group. Our result has significant implications in the classification of finite groups, as it implies that any group of prime order is isomorphic to the cyclic group of the same order. Moreover, it provides a useful tool for understanding the structure of more complicated finite groups, as any finite abelian group can be decomposed into a direct product of cyclic groups. Our proof technique can also be extended to other areas of group theory, such as the classification of finite p-groups, where p is a prime. Therefore, our work has implications beyond the specific result we prove and can contribute to further research in algebraic structures.

Keywords: group theory, finite groups, cyclic groups, prime order, classification.

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Authors: Maléne Maria Magdalena Campbell, Jeremiah Mholo

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Low-income households earning less than 3,500 ZAR (about 175 GBP) per month can apply to the South African government, through the National Housing Subsidy, for fully subsidised houses. An objective of this subsidy is to enable low-income households’ participation in the formal housing market; however, the beneficiaries received houses without title deeds. As such, if the beneficiaries did not have a secured tenure at the time of their death then surviving family may face possible eviction. Therefore, an aim of this research was to determine how these beneficiaries interpret tenure security. The research focused on government subsidised housing in the Dithlake settlement of a rural hamlet named Koffiefontein, in the Letsemeng Local Municipality of South Africa. Quantitative data on the beneficiaries were collected from the local municipality, while qualitative data were collected from a sample of 45 beneficiaries.

Keywords: low-income families, subsidised housing, titling, housing market

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Authors: Torsten Mielitz, Dietmar Schulz, York C. Roth

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Market forecasts show a significant increase in the demand for aircraft within the next two decades and production rates will be adapted accordingly. Improvements and optimizations in the industrial system are becoming more important to cope with future challenges in manufacturing and assembly. Highest quality standards have to be met for aerospace parts, whereas cost effective production in industrial systems and methodologies are also a key driver. A look at other industries like e.g., automotive shows well established processes to streamline existing manufacturing systems. In this paper, the implementation of 'PULL' principles in an existing manufacturing process chain for a large scale composite part is presented. A nonlinear extrapolation based on 'Little's Law' showed a risk of a significant increase of parts needed in the process chain to meet future demand. A project has been set up to mitigate the risk whereas the methodology has been changed from a traditional milestone approach in the beginning towards an agile way of working in the end in order to facilitate immediate benefits in the shop-floor. Finally, delivery rates could be increased avoiding more semi-finished parts in the process chain (work in progress & inventory) by the successful implementation of the 'PULL' philosophy in the shop-floor between the work stations. Lessons learned during the running project as well as implementation and operations phases are discussed in order to share best practices.

Keywords: aerospace composite part manufacturing, PULL principles, shop-floor implementation, lessons learned

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Authors: Paulina Pietrzyk-Kowalec

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This paper presents the phenomenon of multilingualism becoming the norm rather than the exception in the European Union. It also seeks to describe the correlation between the command of foreign languages and employability. It is evident that the challenges of today's societies when it comes to employability and to the reality of the current labor market are more and more diversified. Thus, it is one of the crucial tasks of higher education to prepare its students to face this kind of complexity, understand its nuances, and have the capacity to adapt effectively to situations that are common in corporations based in the countries belonging to the EU. From this point of view, the assessment of the impact that the command of foreign languages of European university students could have on the numerous business sectors becomes vital. It also involves raising awareness of future professionals to make them understand the importance of mastering communicative skills in foreign languages that will meet the requirements of students' prospective employers. The direct connection between higher education institutions and the world of business also allows companies to realize that they should rethink their recruitment and human resources procedures in order to take into account the importance of foreign languages. This article focuses on the objective of the multilingualism policy developed by the European Commission, which is to enable young people to master at least two foreign languages, which is crucial in their future careers. The article puts emphasis on the existence of a crucial connection between the research conducted in higher education institutions and the business sector in order to reduce current qualification gaps.

Keywords: cross-cultural communication, employability, human resources, language attitudes, multilingualism

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Authors: Akshata Patel, Reenu Singh

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This paper focuses on current and upcoming fashion trends and global impact on the fashion industry due to the COVID-19 pandemic. The pandemic has had a major impact on the fashion industry worldwide. At the same time, the fashion market also faces challenges in consumer demand. As the supply chain and distribution channels are interconnected, this outbreak has a global impact due to travel restrictions and raw materials shortages. Given that this particular period represents an unprecedented market situation with almost no prior research on how the industry will recover from such a crisis and mold back to its original form, this research aims to propose new possibilities by evaluating the framework of specific segments. Based on the analysis and extensive literature review, the study develops a conceptual model that will illustrate the various connections among the different segments of the fashion industry. The findings provide actionable considerations for fashion industry pupils when implementing appropriate strategies to prevent unfavourable outcomes during times of crisis, such as the COVID-19 outbreak.

Keywords: COVID-19, fashion industry, global impact, new possibilities, pandemic

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Authors: Ketevan Goletiani

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MMultimodal transport is Europe-Asia’s rational decision of the XXI century. Success prerequisite of this form of cargo carriage is not technologic decision, but the comprehensive attitude towards it. Integration of the transport industry must refer to both technical and organizational-economic fields. Support of the multimodal’s must be the priority of the transport policy in different organizations of Europe and Asia. The method of approach to the transport as a unified system has been changed to a certain extent in the market conditions. Nowadays the competition between the different kinds of transport is not to be considered as a competition of one kind of transport towards another one, but is to be considered as a stimulator of the transport development. Basically, transport logistic, as the recent methodology and organization of the rationally flow of cargos at the specialized logistic centres during their procession provides effective rise of such flow of cargos, decreases non-operating expenses and gives the opportunity to the transport companies to come along with the time, to meet market clients’ requirements. It is apparent that the advanced transport-forwarding and logistic firms are being analized.

Keywords: transport systems, multimodal transport, competition, transport logistics

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Authors: Amir Mohagheghzadeh, Solaleh Salimi, Ramin Tafazzoli

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Ecosystem and networks plays significant roles in product innovation. External innovation within developing firms can bring a wide range of advantages for a firm in a competitive market. Using external innovation can be mentioned as one of the most significant concepts regarding the firm’s transition phase into openness. Derivative concepts such as open or shared platform and app stores are the main result of this thinking within the firms. However, adopting this concept and leverage the defined advantages of external innovation should be aligned with other strategies and policies of a firm. Consequently, one of the key aspects that have been raised while using external innovation is how to govern external innovation within a developing firm. This paper describes the frameworks that two pioneer companies in mobile operating system development have used in order to control and govern external innovation through platform.

Keywords: external innovation, open innovation, governance, governance mechanisms, innovation, Apple, iOS, Google, Android

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Authors: Moh'd Alodat

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In this paper, we discuss the power function distribution and derive the maximum likelihood estimator of its parameter as well as the reliability parameter. We derive the large sample properties of the estimators based on the selective order statistic scheme. We conduct simulation studies to investigate the significance of the selective order statistic scheme in our setup and to compare the efficiency of the new proposed estimators.

Keywords: fisher information, maximum likelihood estimator, power function distribution, ranked set sampling, selective order statistics sampling

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Authors: Jose Gonzalez, Fai Cheng, Ivy Fan

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Shipping has a mature and ever expanding worldwide market. The future of the marine industry itself is not only irrevocably linked with the global economic, social, and political landscape; it is also subject to the technological developments in different fields. Some of them may have never been linked to the marine industry before. Companies in the marine sector are getting more dependent on technologies to achieve competitive advantage in an increasing open market. Technologies can be fused across different business functions and geopolitical influences. A successful marine business should be prepared to embrace such potential changes that lie ahead. The present paper intends to articulate long-term marine technology strategies from an industrial perspective. Methodology and current development are introduced. The paper will also provide insight into future technological trends demand for major commercial ship types. It may also assist different stakeholders in tailoring their long-term strategies to achieve a Sea Change and to uncap opportunity.

Keywords: commercial sector, marine, trends, technology

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Authors: Min Gao

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In the past year, the advent of large language models (LLMs) has brought about a revolution in the language service industry, making it possible to efficiently produce more satisfactory and higher-quality translations. This is groundbreaking news for commercial companies involved in language services since much of a translator's work can now be completed by machines. However, it may be bad news for universities that provide translation training programs. They need to confront the challenges posed by AI in education by reconsidering issues such as the reform of traditional teaching methods, the translation ethics of students, and the new demands of the job market for their graduates. This article is an exploratory study of these issues based on the author's experiences in translation teaching. The research combines methods in the form of questionnaires and interviews. The findings include: (1) students may lose their motivation to learn in the AI era, but this can be compensated for by encouragement from the lecturer; (2) Translation ethics are not a serious problem in schools, considering the strict policies and regulations in place; (3) The role of translators has evolved in the new era, necessitating a reform of the traditional teaching methods.

Keywords: job market of translation, large language model, translation ethics, translation training

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Authors: Shreemoyee Sarkar, Vikhyat Chadha

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In this paper, the local fractal properties and chaotic properties of financial time series are investigated by calculating two exponents, the Local Hurst Exponent: LHE and Lyapunov Exponent in a moving time window of a financial series.y. For the purpose of this paper, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DIJA) and S&P 500, two of the major indices of United States have been considered. The behaviour of the above-mentioned exponents prior to some major crashes (1998 and 2008 crashes in S&P 500 and 2002 and 2008 crashes in DIJA) is discussed. Also, the optimal length of the window for obtaining the best possible results is decided. Based on the outcomes of the above, an attempt is made to predict the crashes and accuracy of such an algorithm is decided.

Keywords: local hurst exponent, lyapunov exponent, market crash prediction, time series chaos, time series local fractal properties

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Authors: Asima Ranjan Parhi

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English language teaching-learning in higher education departments in Indian and Asian contexts needs to be one of innovation and experimentation rather than rigid prescription. The communicative language teaching has been proposing the context to be of primary importance in this process. Today, English print and electronic media have flooded the market with plenty of material suitable to the classroom context. The entries are poetic, catchy and contain a deliberate method in them which could be utilized to teach not only English language but literature, literary terms and the theory of literature. The Bollywood movies, especially through their songs have been propagating a package which may be useful to teach language and even theory in the sub-continent. While investigating, one may be fascinated to see how such material in the body of media (print and electronic), movies and popular songs generate a data for our classroom in our context, thereby developing a mass language with huge pedagogical implications. Harping on the four skills of teaching and learning of a language in general and English language in particular appears stale and mechanical in a decontextualised, matter of fact classroom. So this discussion visualizes a model beyond these skills as well as the conventional theory, literature, language classroom practices in order to build up a systematic pattern stressing the factors responsible in the particular context, that of specific language, society and culture in tune with language-literature teaching. This study intends to examine certain catchy use of the language entries in mass media which could be in the direction of inviting more such investigations in the Asian context in order to develop a common platform of decolonized pedagogy.

Keywords: pedagogy, electronic media, Bollywood, decolonized, mass media

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Authors: F. Felipe

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Air Defense Systems contain high-value assets that are expected to fulfill their mission for several years - in many cases, even decades - while operating in a fast-changing, technology-driven environment. Thus, it is paramount that decision-makers can assess how effective an Air Defense System is in the face of new developing threats, as well as to identify the bottlenecks that could jeopardize the security of the airspace of a country. Given the broad extent of activities and the great variety of assets necessary to achieve the strategic objectives, a systems approach was taken in order to delineate the core requirements and the physical architecture of an Air Defense System. Then, value-focused thinking helped in the definition of the measures of effectiveness. Furthermore, analytical methods were applied to create a formal structure that preliminarily assesses such measures. To validate the proposed methodology, a powerful simulation was also used to determine the measures of effectiveness, now in more complex environments that incorporate both uncertainty and multiple interactions of the entities. The results regarding the validity of this methodology suggest that the approach can support decisions aimed at enhancing the capabilities of Air Defense Systems. In conclusion, this paper sheds some light on how consolidated approaches of Systems Engineering and Operations Research can be used as valid techniques for solving problems regarding a complex and yet vital matter.

Keywords: air defense, effectiveness, system, simulation, decision-support

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Authors: Tania Ali Soomro

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In 1839, the British, after the annexation of the port city of Karachi, established a new urban centre consisting of various quarters and introduced new settlements there. These quarters were out of the boundaries of fortified native old area and now contain much of the oldest parts of the city and signify the colonial history of Karachi, in particular the Saddar Bazaar and the neighboring areas of Kharadar and Mithadar. These quarters bestow a mix of functional typology built in a hybrid form of construction - an adaptation of the western architectural attributes to regional requirements and characteristics. This approach is referred to as the Anglo Vernacular, Colonial or the Domestic Gothic architectural form. This research paper investigates the historical and architectural value of one such property: the Empress Market designed by then Municipal Architect, Ar. James Strachan in 1889 as a commemorative monument for the jubilee of Her Majesty the Queen Victoria; Empress of British India, at that time. This paper presents information on the present conservation status of the market building and highlights its role as a catalyst to the community interconnection. This building has survived to present day and functioned well, despite undergoing numerous transformations. A detailed analysis of the bio-degradation (Natural-Chemical dissolution of material) and the bio-deterioration (Manmade-Negative state change of the material) of the building, based on the examination of the prevailing causes of these bio-alterations is carried out, and is presented in form of a damage atlas containing both the categories of bio-alteration/ changes occurred to the building over the time. The research methodology followed in this paper starts with the available archival analysis, physical observation, photographic documentation, the statistics review and the interviews with the direct and indirect stakeholders. The results and findings of this research portray that these bio-alterations and changes are the essential part of the life cycle of Empress Market building which illustrate the historic development of the premise and therefore ought to be given due importance (depending upon their condition) while developing the conservation plan for the building.

Keywords: British colonial architecture, bio-alteration, bio-degradation, bio-deterioration, domestic gothic architectural form

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Authors: A. A. James, A. O. Adesanya, M. R. Odekunle, D. G. Yakubu

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This paper examines the development of one step, five hybrid point method for the solution of first order initial value problems. We adopted the method of collocation and interpolation of power series approximate solution to generate a continuous linear multistep method. The continuous linear multistep method was evaluated at selected grid points to give the discrete linear multistep method. The method was implemented using a constant order predictor of order seven over an overlapping interval. The basic properties of the derived corrector was investigated and found to be zero stable, consistent and convergent. The region of absolute stability was also investigated. The method was tested on some numerical experiments and found to compete favorably with the existing methods.

Keywords: interpolation, approximate solution, collocation, differential system, half step, converges, block method, efficiency

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Authors: Jian Li

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The uncertainty quantification and inversion problems of subsurface oil-water phase flow usually require extensive repeated forward calculations for new runs with changed conditions. To reduce the computational time, various forms of surrogate models have been built. Related research shows that deep learning has emerged as an effective surrogate model, while most surrogate models with deep learning are purely data-driven, which always leads to poor robustness and abnormal results. To guarantee the model more consistent with the physical laws, a coupled theory-guided convolutional neural network (TgCNN) based surrogate model is built to facilitate computation efficiency under the premise of satisfactory accuracy. The model is a convolutional neural network based on multi-well reservoir simulation. The core notion of this proposed method is to bridge two separate blocks on top of an overall network. They underlie the TgCNN model in a coupled form, which reflects the coupling nature of pressure and water saturation in the two-phase flow equation. The model is driven by not only labeled data but also scientific theories, including governing equations, stochastic parameterization, boundary, and initial conditions, well conditions, and expert knowledge. The results show that the TgCNN-based surrogate model exhibits satisfactory accuracy and efficiency in subsurface oil-water phase flow under multi-well conditions.

Keywords: coupled theory-guided convolutional neural network, multi-well conditions, surrogate model, subsurface oil-water phase

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Authors: Chih-Hsiang Chang, Pei-Shan Kao

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This paper discusses the reaction of investors in the Taiwan stock market to the most probable unknown earnings-related information and the most probable known earnings-related information. As compared with the previous literature regarding the effect of an official announcement of earnings forecast revision, this paper further analyzes investors’ cognitive bias toward the unknown and known earnings-related information, and the role of media during the investors' reactions to the foresaid information shocks. The empirical results show that both the unknown and known earnings-related information provides useful information content for a stock market. In addition, cognitive bias and disposition effect are the behavioral pitfalls that commonly occur in the process of the investors' reactions to the earnings-related information. Finally, media coverage has a remarkable influence upon the investors' trading decisions.

Keywords: cognitive bias, role of media, disposition effect, earnings-related information, behavioral pitfall

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Authors: Renuka Mahadevan, Sharon Chang

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This exploratory study is based on potential cruisers’ monetary valuation of cruise attributes. Using choice experiment, monetary trade-offs between four different cruise attributes are examined with Australians as a case study. We found 50% of the sample valued variety of onboard cruise activities the least while 30% were willing to pay A$87 for cruise-organised activities per day, and the remaining 20% regarded an ocean view to be most valuable at A$125. Latent class modelling was then applied and results revealed that potential cruisers’ valuation of the attributes can be used to segment the market into adventurers, budget conscious and comfort lovers. Evidence showed that socio demographics are not as insightful as lifestyle preferences in developing cruise packages and pricing that would appeal to potential cruisers. Marketing also needs to counter the mindset of potential cruisers’ belief that cruises are often costly and that cruising can be done later in life.

Keywords: latent class modelling, choice experiment, potential cruisers, market segmentation, willingness to pay

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Authors: Salisu Ibrahim

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The paper studies the commutativity associated with fractional order linear time-varying systems (LTVSs), which is an important area of study in control systems engineering. In this paper, we explore the properties of these systems and their ability to commute. We proposed the necessary and sufficient condition for commutativity for fractional order LTVSs. Through a simulation and mathematical analysis, we demonstrate that these systems exhibit commutativity under certain conditions. Our findings have implications for the design and control of fractional order systems in practical applications, science, and engineering. An example is given to show the effectiveness of the proposed method which is been computed by Mathematica and validated by the use of MATLAB (Simulink).

Keywords: fractional differential equation, physical systems, equivalent circuit, analog control

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Authors: Joaquim Rubens Fontes-Filho, Felipe Buchbinder, Marcelo Desterro

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The study aims to identify the effects of an economic recession on the compensation of executives of listed companies. Market-based and labor environment explanations have received particular attention, both to explain the reasons for a growth in this compensation and to indicate that they may increase agency problems rather than mitigate them. In this sense, labor forces, especially related to the market for executives, contribute to defining the terms of compensation packages and represent a significant external control mechanism to moderate agency problems, but may be of little effect if the executives are entrenched and concentrate enough power to have a say in his/her compensation. Based on a five-year data panel related to executive compensation in 250 listed companies in Brazil, we examine whether the economic recession in the last two years produced any impact in this compensation, controlling for the sector and level of governance of the company.

Keywords: agency problems, executive compensation, control mechanisms, corporate governance

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Authors: Yichao Liu, Peter Fransson, Julian Heidecke, Jonas Wallin, Joacim Rockloev

Abstract:

Dengue, a mosquito-borne viral disease, poses a significant public health challenge in endemic tropical or subtropical countries, including Sri Lanka. To reveal insights into the complexity of the dynamics of this disease and study the drivers, a comprehensive model capable of both robust forecasting and insightful inference of drivers while capturing the co-circulating of several virus strains is essential. However, existing studies mostly focus on only one aspect at a time and do not integrate and carry insights across the siloed approach. While mechanistic models are developed to capture immunity dynamics, they are often oversimplified and lack integration of all the diverse drivers of disease transmission. On the other hand, purely data-driven methods lack constraints imposed by immuno-epidemiological processes, making them prone to overfitting and inference bias. This research presents a hybrid model that combines machine learning techniques with mechanistic modelling to overcome the limitations of existing approaches. Leveraging eight years of newly reported dengue case data, along with socioeconomic factors, such as human mobility, weekly climate data from 2011 to 2018, genetic data detecting the introduction and presence of new strains, and estimates of seropositivity for different districts in Sri Lanka, we derive a data-driven vector (SEI) to human (SEIR) model across 16 regions in Sri Lanka at the weekly time scale. By conducting ablation studies, the lag effects allowing delays up to 12 weeks of time-varying climate factors were determined. The model demonstrates superior predictive performance over a pure machine learning approach when considering lead times of 5 and 10 weeks on data withheld from model fitting. It further reveals several interesting interpretable findings of drivers while adjusting for the dynamics and influences of immunity and introduction of a new strain. The study uncovers strong influences of socioeconomic variables: population density, mobility, household income and rural vs. urban population. The study reveals substantial sensitivity to the diurnal temperature range and precipitation, while mean temperature and humidity appear less important in the study location. Additionally, the model indicated sensitivity to vegetation index, both max and average. Predictions on testing data reveal high model accuracy. Overall, this study advances the knowledge of dengue transmission in Sri Lanka and demonstrates the importance of incorporating hybrid modelling techniques to use biologically informed model structures with flexible data-driven estimates of model parameters. The findings show the potential to both inference of drivers in situations of complex disease dynamics and robust forecasting models.

Keywords: compartmental model, climate, dengue, machine learning, social-economic

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Authors: Francys Souza, Alberto Ohashi, Dorival Leao

Abstract:

We present a general solution for finding the ε-optimal controls for non-Markovian stochastic systems as stochastic differential equations driven by Brownian motion, which is a problem recognized as a difficult solution. The contribution appears in the development of mathematical tools to deal with modeling and control of non-Markovian systems, whose applicability in different areas is well known. The methodology used consists to discretize the problem through a random discretization. In this way, we transform an infinite dimensional problem in a finite dimensional, thereafter we use measurable selection arguments, to find a control on an explicit form for the discretized problem. Then, we prove the control found for the discretized problem is a ε-optimal control for the original problem. Our theory provides a concrete description of a rather general class, among the principals, we can highlight financial problems such as portfolio control, hedging, super-hedging, pairs-trading and others. Therefore, our main contribution is the development of a tool to explicitly the ε-optimal control for non-Markovian stochastic systems. The pathwise analysis was made through a random discretization jointly with measurable selection arguments, has provided us with a structure to transform an infinite dimensional problem into a finite dimensional. The theory is applied to stochastic control problems based on path-dependent stochastic differential equations, where both drift and diffusion components are controlled. We are able to explicitly show optimal control with our method.

Keywords: dynamic programming equation, optimal control, stochastic control, stochastic differential equation

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Authors: Adele Pierre, Nadia Amoroso

Abstract:

Changing climate patterns are resulting in increased in storm severity, challenging traditional methods of managing stormwater runoff. This research compares a system of bioswales to existing curb and gutter infrastructure in a post-industrial streetscape of Hamilton, Ontario. Using the geodesign process, including rule-based set parameters and an integrated approach combining geospatial information with stakeholder input, a section of Ottawa St. North was modelled to show how green infrastructure can ease the burden on aging, combined sewer systems. Qualitative data was gathered from residents of the neighbourhood through field notes, and quantitative geospatial data through GIS and site analysis. Parametric modelling was used to generate multiple design scenarios, each visualizing resulting impacts on stormwater runoff along with their calculations. The selected design scenarios offered both an aesthetically pleasing urban bioswale street-scape system while minimizing and controlling stormwater runoff. Interactive maps, videos and the 3D model were presented for stakeholder comment via ESRI’s (Environmental System Research Institute) web-scene. The results of the study demonstrate powerful tools that can assist landscape architects in designing, collaborating and communicating stormwater strategies.

Keywords: bioswale, geodesign, data-driven and rule-based design, geodesign, GIS, stormwater management

Procedia PDF Downloads 174