Search results for: efficiency energy

Authors: Gashaw Gismu Chakilu

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Climate and land cover change are very important issues in terms of global context and their responses to environmental and socio-economic drivers. The dynamic of these two factors is currently affecting the environment in unbalanced way including watershed hydrology. In this paper individual and combined impacts of climate change and land use land cover change on hydrological processes were evaluated through applying the model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) in Gumara watershed, Upper Blue Nile basin Ethiopia. The regional climate; temperature and rainfall data of the past 40 years in the study area were prepared and changes were detected by using trend analysis applying Mann-Kendall trend test. The land use land cover data were obtained from land sat image and processed by ERDAS IMAGIN 2010 software. Three land use land cover data; 1973, 1986, and 2013 were prepared and these data were used for base line, model calibration and change study respectively. The effects of these changes on high flow and low flow of the catchment have also been evaluated separately. The high flow of the catchment for these two decades was analyzed by using Annual Maximum (AM) model and the low flow was evaluated by seven day sustained low flow model. Both temperature and rainfall showed increasing trend; and then the extent of changes were evaluated in terms of monthly bases by using two decadal time periods; 1973-1982 was taken as baseline and 2004-2013 was used as change study. The efficiency of the model was determined by Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) and Relative Volume error (RVe) and their values were 0.65 and 0.032 for calibration and 0.62 and 0.0051 for validation respectively. The impact of climate change was higher than that of land use land cover change on stream flow of the catchment; the flow has been increasing by 16.86% and 7.25% due to climate and LULC change respectively, and the combined change effect accounted 22.13% flow increment. The overall results of the study indicated that Climate change is more responsible for high flow than low flow; and reversely the land use land cover change showed more significant effect on low flow than high flow of the catchment. From the result we conclude that the hydrology of the catchment has been altered because of changes of climate and land cover of the study area.

Keywords: climate, LULC, SWAT, Ethiopia

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Authors: Azadeh Mottaghi, Reyhaneh Yousefi, Saeed Safari

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Background: Bariatric surgery is widely proposed as the most effective approach to mitigate the growing pace of morbid obesity. As bariatric surgery candidates suffer from pre-existing nutritional deficiencies, it is of great importance to assess nutritional status of candidates before surgery in order to establish appropriate nutritional interventions. Objectives: The present study assessed and represented baseline data according to the nutritional status among candidates for bariatric surgery. Methods: A cross-sectional analysis of pre-surgery data was collected on 170 morbidly obese patients undergoing bariatric surgery between October 2017 and February 2018. Dietary intake data (evaluated through 147-item food frequency questionnaire), anthropometric measures and biochemical parameters were assessed. Results: Participants included 145 females (25 males) with average age of 37.3 ± 10.2 years, BMI of 45.7 ± 6.4 kg/m² and reported to have a total of 72.3 ± 22.2 kg excess body weight. The most common nutritional deficiencies referred to iron, ferritin, transferrin, albumin, vitamin B12, and vitamin D, the prevalence of which in the study population were as followed; 6.5, 6.5, 3, 2, 17.6 and 66%, respectively. Mean energy, protein, fat, and carbohydrate intake were 3887.3 ± 1748.32 kcal/day, 121.6 ± 57.1, 144.1 ± 83.05, and 552.4 ± 240.5 gr/day, respectively. The study population consumed lower levels of iron, calcium, folic acid, and vitamin B12 compared to the Dietary Reference Intake (DRI) recommendations (2, 26, 2.5, and 13%, respectively). Conclusion: According to the poor dietary quality of bariatric surgery candidates, leading to nutritional deficiencies pre-operatively, close monitoring and tailored supplementation pre- and post-bariatric surgery are required.

Keywords: bariatric surgery, food frequency questionnaire, obesity, nutritional status

Procedia PDF Downloads 171

Authors: Fitih Ademe, Kibebew Kibret, Sheleme Beyene, Mezgebu Getnet, Gashaw Meteke

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Soil moisture and nutrient availability are the two key edaphic factors that affect crop yields and are directly or indirectly affected by climate variability and change. The study examined climate-induced yield level, yield variability and gap of maize during 1981-2010 main growing season in the Central Rift Valley (CRV) of Ethiopia. Pearson correlation test was employed to see the relationship between climate variables and yield. The coefficient of variation (CV) was used to analyze annual yield variability. Decision Support System for Agro-technology Transfer cropping system model (DSSAT-CSM) was used to simulate the growth and yield of maize for the study period. The result indicated that maize grain yield was strongly (P<0.01) and positively correlated with seasonal rainfall (r=0.67 at Melkassa and r = 0.69 at Ziway) in the CRV while day temperature affected grain yield negatively (r= -0.44) at Ziway (P<0.05) during the simulation period. Variations in total seasonal rainfall at Melkassa and Ziway explained 44.9 and 48.5% of the variation in yield, respectively, under optimum nutrition. Following variation in rainfall, high yield variability (CV=23.5%, Melkassa and CV=25.3%, Ziway) was observed for optimum nutrient simulation than the corresponding nutrient limited simulation (CV=16%, Melkassa and 24.1%, Ziway) in the study period. The observed farmers’ yield was 72, 52 and 43% of the researcher-managed, water-limited and potential yield of the crop, respectively, indicating a wide maize yield gap in the region. The study revealed rainfed crop production in the CRV is prone to yield variabilities due to its high dependence on seasonal rainfall and nutrient level. Moreover, the high coefficient of variation in the yield gap for the 30-year period also foretells the need for dependable water supply at both locations. Given the wide yield gap especially during lower rainfall years across the simulation periods, it signifies the requirement for a more dependable application of irrigation water and a potential shift to irrigated agriculture; hence, adopting options that can improve water availability and nutrient use efficiency would be crucial for crop production in the area.

Keywords: climate variability, crop model, water availability, yield gap, yield variability

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Authors: Carin Lindskog

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Introduction: Long-term success requires an organizational balance between continuity (exploitation) and change (exploration). The problem of balancing exploitation and exploration is a common issue in studies of organizational learning. In order to better face the tough competition in the face of changes, organizations need to exploit their current business and explore new business fields by developing new capabilities. The purpose of this work in progress is to develop a conceptual framework to shed light on the relevance of 'learning activities', i.e., exploitation and exploration, on different levels. The research questions that will be addressed are as follows: What sort of learning activities are found in the Business Process Management (BPM) field? How can these activities be linked to the individual level, group, level, and organizational level? In the work, a literature review will first be conducted. This review will explore the status of learning activities in the BPM field. An outcome from the literature review will be a conceptual framework of learning activities based on the included publications. The learning activities will be categorized to focus on the categories exploitation, exploration or both and into the levels of individual, group, and organization. The proposed conceptual framework will be a valuable tool for analyzing the research field as well as identification of future research directions. Related Work: BPM has increased in popularity as a way of working to strengthen the quality of the work and meet the demands of efficiency. Due to the increase in BPM popularity, more and more organizations reporting on BPM failure. One reason for this is the lack of knowledge about the extended scope of BPM to other business contexts that include, for example, more creative business fields. Yet another reason for the failures are the fact of the employees’ are resistant to changes. The learning process in an organization is an ongoing cycle of reflection and action and is a process that can be initiated, developed and practiced. Furthermore, organizational learning is multilevel; therefore the theory of organizational learning needs to consider the individual, the group, and the organization level. Learning happens over time and across levels, but it also creates a tension between incorporating new learning (feed-forward) and exploiting or using what has already been learned (feedback). Through feed-forward processes, new ideas and actions move from the individual to the group to the organization level. At the same time, what has already been learned feeds back from the organization to a group to an individual and has an impact on how people act and think.

Keywords: business process management, exploitation, exploration, learning activities

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Authors: Danying Gu, Xiaoyan Li, Yuanlei He

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As a knowledge-intensive industry, nuclear industry highly values the importance of safety and quality. The life cycle of a NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) can last 100 years from the initial research and design to its decommissioning. How to implement the high-quality knowledge management and how to contribute to a more safe, advanced and economic NPP (Nuclear Power Plant) is the most important issue and responsibility for knowledge management. As the lead of nuclear industry, nuclear research and design institute has competitive advantages of its advanced technology, knowledge and information, DKM (Design Knowledge Management) of nuclear research and design institute is the core of the knowledge management in the whole nuclear industry. In this paper, the study and practice on DKM and knowledge transfer across the life cycle of a new-built NPP in China is introduced. For this digital intelligent NPP, the whole design process is based on a digital design platform which includes NPP engineering and design dynamic analyzer, visualization engineering verification platform, digital operation maintenance support platform and digital equipment design, manufacture integrated collaborative platform. In order to make all the design data and information transfer across design, construction, commissioning and operation, the overall architecture of new-built digital NPP should become a modern knowledge management system. So a digital information transfer model across the NPP life cycle is proposed in this paper. The challenges related to design knowledge transfer is also discussed, such as digital information handover, data center and data sorting, unified data coding system. On the other hand, effective delivery of design information during the construction and operation phase will contribute to the comprehensive understanding of design ideas and components and systems for the construction contractor and operation unit, largely increasing the safety, quality and economic benefits during the life cycle. The operation and maintenance records generated from the NPP operation process have great significance for maintaining the operating state of NPP, especially the comprehensiveness, validity and traceability of the records. So the requirements of an online monitoring and smart diagnosis system of NPP is also proposed, to help utility-owners to improve the safety and efficiency.

Keywords: design knowledge management, digital nuclear power plant, knowledge transfer, life cycle

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Authors: Yamma Rose, Kone Martine, Yonli Arsène, Wanko Ngnien Adrien

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Artisanal gold mining has seen a resurgence in recent years in Burkina Faso with its corollary of soil and water pollution. Indeed, in addition to visible impacts, it generates discharges rich in trace metal elements and acids. This pollution has significant environmental consequences, making these lands unusable while the population depends on the natural environment for its survival. The goal of this study is to assess the decontamination potential of Chrysopogon zizanioides on two artisanal gold processing sites in Burkina Faso. The cyanidation sites of Nebia (1Ha) and Nimbrogo (2Ha) located respectively in the Central West and Central South regions were selected. The soils were characterized to determine the initial pollution levels before the implementation of phytoremediation. After development of the site, parallel trenches equidistant 6 m apart, 30 cm deep, 40 cm wide and opposite to the water flow direction were dug and filled with earth amended with manure. The Chrysopogon zizanioides plants were transplanted 5 cm equidistant into the trenches. The mere fact that Chrysopogon zizanioides grew in the polluted soil is an indication that this plant tolerates and resists the toxicity of trace elements present on the site. The characterization shows sites very polluted with free cyanide 900 times higher than the national standard, the level of Hg in the soil is 5 times more than the limit value, iron and Zn are respectively 1000 times and 200 more than the tolerated environmental value. At time T1 (6 months) and T2 (12 months) of culture, Chrysopogon zizanioides showed less development on the Nimbrogo site than that of the Nebia site. Plant shoots and associated soil samples were collected and analyzed for total As, Hg, Fe and Zn concentration. The trace element content of the soil, the bioaccumulation factor and the hyper accumulation thresholds were also determined to assess the remediation potential. The concentration of As and Hg in the soil was below international risk thresholds, while that of Fe and Zn was well above these thresholds. The CN removal efficiency at the Nebia site is respectively 29.90% and 68.62% compared to 6.6% and 60.8% at Nimbrogo at time T1 and T2.

Keywords: chrysopogon zizanioides, in-situ phytoremediation, polluted soils, micropollutants

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Authors: Xu Jie

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As a key network security method, cryptographic services must fully cope with problems such as the wide variety of cryptographic algorithms, high concurrency requirements, random job crossovers, and instantaneous surges in workloads. Its complexity and dynamics also make it difficult for traditional static security policies to cope with the ever-changing situation. Cyber Threats and Environment. Traditional resource scheduling algorithms are inadequate when facing complex decisionmaking problems in dynamic environments. A network cryptographic resource allocation algorithm based on reinforcement learning is proposed, aiming to optimize task energy consumption, migration cost, and fitness of differentiated services (including user, data, and task security). By modeling the multi-job collaborative cryptographic service scheduling problem as a multiobjective optimized job flow scheduling problem, and using a multi-agent reinforcement learning method, efficient scheduling and optimal configuration of cryptographic service resources are achieved. By introducing reinforcement learning, resource allocation strategies can be adjusted in real time in a dynamic environment, improving resource utilization and achieving load balancing. Experimental results show that this algorithm has significant advantages in path planning length, system delay and network load balancing, and effectively solves the problem of complex resource scheduling in cryptographic services.

Keywords: multi-agent reinforcement learning, non-stationary dynamics, multi-agent systems, cooperative and competitive agents

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Authors: N. Maksimentseva

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The issue of public administration in subsoil use, renewal and protection is of high importance for Ukraine since it is strongly linked to energy security of the state as well as it shall facilitate the people of Ukraine to efficiently implement its propitiatory rights towards natural resources and redistribution of national wealth. As it is stipulated in the Article 11 of the Subsoil Code of Ukraine (the Code) the authorities that administer the industry are limited to central executive bodies and local governments. In particular, it is stipulated in the Code that the Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers carries out public administration in geological exploration, production and protection of subsoil. Other state bodies of public administration include central public authority responsible for state environmental protection policies; central public authority in charge of implementation of state geological exploration and efficient subsoil use policies; central authority in charge of state health and safety control policies. There are also public authorities in the Autonomous Republic of Crimea; local executive bodies and other state authorities and local self-government authorities in compliance with laws of Ukraine. This article is devoted to the analysis of the legal relations in the area of public administration of subsoil use, renewal and protection in Ukraine. The main approaches to study the essence of legal relations in the named area as well as its tasks, functions and methods are analyzed. It is concluded in this article that legal relationship in the field of public administration of subsoil use, renewal and protection is characterized by specifics of its task (development of natural resources).

Keywords: legal relations, public administration, subsoil code of Ukraine, subsoil use, renewal and protection

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Authors: Abdelmaoula Mahamoud Tahir, Sedat Sert

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The possibility of improving the shear strength of unsaturated clayey soil with the addition of olivine was investigated in this paper. Unconsolidated undrained triaxial tests (UU), under different cell pressures (namely: 100 kPa and 200 kPa), with varying percentages of olivine (10% and 20% by weight) and with one day, 28 days, and 56 days curing times, were performed to determine the shear strength of the soil. The increase in strength was observed as a function of the increase in olivine content. An olivine content of 25% was determined as the optimum value to achieve the targeted improvement for both cure times. A comparative study was also conducted between clay samples treated with only olivine and others in the presence of potassium hydroxide (KOH). Clay samples treated with olivine and activated with potassium hydroxide (KOH) had higher shear strength than non-activated olivine-treated samples. It was determined that the strength of the clay samples treated with only olivine did not increase over time and added resistance only with the high specific gravity of olivine. On the other hand, the samples activated with potassium hydroxide (KOH) added to the resistance with high specific gravity and the chemical bonds of olivine. Morphological and mineralogical analyzes were carried out in this study to see and analyze the chemical bonds formed after the reaction. The main components of this improvement were the formation of magnesium-aluminate-hydrate and magnesium-silicate-hydrate. Compared to older methods such as cement addition, these results show that in stabilizing clayey soils, olivine additive offers an energy-efficient alternative for reducing carbon dioxide emissions.

Keywords: ground stabilization, clay, olivine additive, KOH, microstructure

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Authors: Neeraj Kumar, J. P. Narayan

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The effects of multiple Structure-Soil-Structure Interactions (SSSI) on the seismic wave-field is generally disregarded by earthquake engineers, particularly the surface waves which cause more damage to buildings. Closely built high rise buildings exchange substantial seismic energy with each other and act as a full-coupled dynamic system. In this paper, SSI effects on the building responses and the free field motion due to a small city consisting 25- homogenous buildings blocks of 10-storey are quantified. The rocking and translational behavior of building under Rayleigh wave loading is studied for different dimensions of the building. The obtained dynamic parameters of buildings revealed a reduction in building roof drift with an increase in number of buildings ahead of the considered building. The strain developed by vertical component of Rayleigh may cause tension in structural components of building. A matching of fundamental frequency of building for the horizontal component of Rayleigh wave with that for vertically incident SV-wave is obtained. Further, the fundamental frequency of building for the vertical vibration is approximately twice to that for horizontal vibration. The city insulation has caused a reduction of amplitude of Rayleigh wave up to 19.3% and 21.6% in the horizontal and vertical components, respectively just outside the city. Further, the insulating effect of city was very large at fundamental frequency of buildings for both the horizontal and vertical components. Therefore, it is recommended to consider the insulating effects of city falling in the path of Rayleigh wave propagation in seismic hazard assessment for an area.

Keywords: structure-soil-structure interactions, Rayleigh wave propagation, finite difference simulation, dynamic response of buildings

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Authors: Gordana Ćetković, Vesna Tumbas Šaponjac, Jasna Čanadanović-Brunet, Sonja Đilas, Slađana Stajčić, Jelena Vulić, Mirjana Jakišić

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Despite the recommended amount of daily intake of fruits, the consumption in modern age remains very low. Therefore there is a need for delivering valuable phytochemicals into the human body through different foods by developing functional food products fortified with natural bioactive compounds from plant sources. Recently, a growing interest rises in exploiting the fruit and vegetable by-products as sources of phytochemicals such as polyphenols, carotenoids, vitamins etc. Cherry contain high amounts of polyphenols, which are known to display a wide range of biological activities like antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, antimicrobial or anti-carcinogenic activities, improvement of vision, induction of apoptosis and neuroprotective effects. Also, cherry pomace, a by-product in juice processing, can also be promising source of phenolic compounds. However, the application of polyphenols as food additives is limited because after extraction these compounds are susceptible to degradation. Microencapsulation is one of the alternative approaches to protect bioactive compounds from degradation during processing and storage. Freeze-drying is one of the most used microencapsulation methods for the protection of thermosensitive and unstable molecules. In this study sour cherry pomace was extracted with food-grade solvent (50% ethanol) to be suitable for application in products for human use. Extracted polyphenols have been concentrated and stabilized on whey (WP) and soy (SP) proteins. Encapsulation efficiency in SP was higher (94.90%), however not significantly (p<0.05) from the one in WP (90.10%). Storage properties of WP and SP encapsulate in terms of total polyphenols, anthocyanins and antioxidant activity was tested for 6 weeks. It was found that the retention of polyphenols after 6 weeks in WP and SP (67.33 and 69.30%, respectively) was similar. The content of anthocyanins has increased in WP (for 47.97%), while their content in SP has very slightly decreased (for 1.45%) after 6-week storage period. In accordance with anthocyanins the decrease in antioxidant activity in WP (87.78%) was higher than in SP (43.02%). According to the results obtained in this study, the technique reported herewith can be used for obtaining quality encapsulates for their further use as functional food additives, and, on the other hand, for fruit waste valorization.

Keywords: cherry pomace, microencapsulation, polyphenols, storage

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Authors: Zhang Pinliang, Chen Chuan, Song Guangming, Wu Qiang, Gong Zizheng, Li Ming

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The active removal of space debris and asteroid defense are important issues in human space activities. Both of them need a detumbling process, for almost all space debris and asteroid are in a rotating state, and it`s hard and dangerous to capture or remove a target with a relatively high tumbling rate. So it`s necessary to find a method to reduce the angular rate first. The laser ablation method is an efficient way to tackle this detumbling problem, for it`s a contactless technique and can work at a safe distance. In existing research, a laser rotational control strategy based on the estimation of the instantaneous angular velocity of the target has been presented. But their calculation of control torque produced by a laser, which is very important in detumbling operation, is not accurate enough, for the method they used is only suitable for the plane or regularly shaped target, and they did not consider the influence of irregular shape and the size of the spot. In this paper, based on the triangulation reconstruction of the target surface, we propose a new method to calculate the impulse of the irregularly shaped target under both the covered irradiation and spot irradiation of the laser and verify its accuracy by theoretical formula calculation and impulse measurement experiment. Then we use it to study the process of detumbling cylinder and asteroid by laser. The result shows that the new method is universally practical and has high precision; it will take more than 13.9 hours to stop the rotation of Bennu with 1E+05kJ laser pulse energy; the speed of the detumbling process depends on the distance between the spot and the centroid of the target, which can be found an optimal value in every particular case.

Keywords: detumbling, laser ablation drive, space target, space debris remove

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Authors: Laura Frydel, Piotr M. Slomkiewicz, Beata Szczepanik

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Triclosan has been used as a disinfectant in many medical products, such as: hand disinfectant soaps, creams, mouthwashes, pastes and household cleaners. Due to its strong antimicrobial activity, triclosan is becoming more and more popular and the consumption of disinfectants with triclosan in it is increasing. As a result, this compound increasingly finds its way into waters and soils in an unchanged form, pollutes the environment and may have a negative effect on organisms. The aim of this study was to investigate the synthesis of cellulose-based halloysite-carbon adsorbent and perform its characterization. The template in the halloysite-carbon adsorbent was halloysite nanotubes and the carbon precursor was microcrystalline cellulose. Scanning electron microscope (SEM) images were obtained and the elementary composition (qualitative and quantitative) of the sample was determined by energy dispersion spectroscopy (EDS). The identification of the crystallographic composition of the halloysite nanotubes and the sample of the halloysite-carbon composite was carried out using the X-ray powder diffraction (XRPD) method. The FTIR spectra were acquired before and after the adsorption process in order to determine the functional groups on the adsorbent surface and confirm the interactions between adsorbent and adsorbate molecules. The parameters of the porous structure of the adsorbent, such as the specific surface area (Brunauer-Emmett-Teller method), the total pore volume and the volume of mesopores and micropores were determined. Total carbon and total organic carbon were also determined in the samples. A cellulose-based halloysite-carbon adsorbent was used to remove triclosan from water. The degree of removal of triclosan from water was approximately 90%. The results indicate that the halloysite-carbon composite can be successfully used as an effective adsorbent for removing triclosan from water.

Keywords: Adsorption, cellulose, halloysite, triclosan

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Authors: Gregory E. Ofili

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Introduction and Objective: Climate change and a global economy mean farmers must adapt and gain access to affordable and reliable automation technologies. Key barriers include a lack of transportation, electricity, and internet service, coupled with costly enabling technologies and limited local subject matter expertise. Methodology/Approach: Resourcefulness is essential to mechanization on a farm. This runs contrary to the tech industry practice of planned obsolescence and disposal. One solution is plug-and-play hardware that allows farmer to assemble, repair, program, and service their own fleet of industrial machines. To that end, we developed a method of manufacturing low-cost utility robots, transport vehicles, and solar/wind energy harvesting systems, all running on an open-source Robot Operating System (ROS). We demonstrate this technology by fabricating a utility robot and an all-terrain (4X4) utility vehicle. Constructed of aluminum trusses and weighing just 40 pounds, yet capable of transporting 200 pounds of cargo, on sale for less than $2,000. Conclusions & Policy Implications: Electricity, internet, and automation are essential for productivity and competitiveness. With planned obsolescence, the priorities of technology suppliers are not aligned with the farmer’s realities. This patent-pending method of manufacturing low-cost industrial robots and electric vehicles has met its objective. To create low-cost machines, the farmer can assemble, program, and repair with basic hand tools.

Keywords: automation, robotics, utility robot, small-hold farm, robot operating system

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Authors: Abisha Isaac Mohanlal

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Amidst all suspicions and cynicism raised by the legal fraternity, Artificial Intelligence has found its way into the legal system and has revolutionized the conventional forms of legal services delivery. Be it legal argumentation and research or resolution of complex legal disputes; artificial intelligence has crept into all legs of modern day legal services. Its impact has been largely felt by way of big data, legal expert systems, prediction tools, e-lawyering, automated mediation, etc., and lawyers around the world are forced to upgrade themselves and their firms to stay in line with the growth of technology in law. Researchers predict that the future of legal services would belong to artificial intelligence and that the age of human lawyers will soon rust. But as far as the Judiciary is concerned, even in the developed countries, the system has not fully drifted away from the orthodoxy of preferring Natural Intelligence over Artificial Intelligence. Since Judicial decision-making involves a lot of unstructured and rather unprecedented situations which have no single correct answer, and looming questions of legal interpretation arise in most of the cases, discretion and Emotional Intelligence play an unavoidable role. Added to that, there are several ethical, moral and policy issues to be confronted before permitting the intrusion of Artificial Intelligence into the judicial system. As of today, the human judge is the unrivalled master of most of the judicial systems around the globe. Yet, scientists of Artificial Intelligence claim that robot judges can replace human judges irrespective of how daunting the complexity of issues is and how sophisticated the cognitive competence required is. They go on to contend that even if the system is too rigid to allow robot judges to substitute human judges in the recent future, Artificial Intelligence may still aid in other judicial tasks such as drafting judicial documents, intelligent document assembly, case retrieval, etc., and also promote overall flexibility, efficiency, and accuracy in the disposal of cases. By deconstructing the major challenges that Artificial Intelligence has to overcome in order to successfully invade the human- dominated judicial sphere, and critically evaluating the potential differences it would make in the system of justice delivery, the author tries to argue that penetration of Artificial Intelligence into the Judiciary could surely be enhancive and reparative, if not fully transformative.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, judicial decision making, judicial systems, legal services delivery

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Authors: Vijay Goud, Ramasamy Alagirusamy, Apurba Das, Dinesh Kalyanasundaram

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Thermoplastic composites render new opportunities as effective processing technology while crafting newer complications into processing. One of the notable challenges is in achieving thorough wettability that is significantly deterred by the high viscosity of the long molecular chains of the thermoplastics. As a result of high viscosity, it is very difficult to impregnate the resin into a tightly interlaced textile structure to fill the voids present in the structure. One potential solution to the above problem, is to pre-deposit resin on the fiber, prior to consolidation. The current study compares DREF spinning, powder coating and film stacking methods of predeposition of resin onto fibers. An investigation into the flexural properties of unidirectional composites (UDC) produced from blending of carbon fiber and polypropylene (PP) matrix in varying forms of fiber, powder and film are reported. Dr. Ernst Fehrer (DREF) yarns or friction spun hybrid yarns were manufactured from PP fibers and carbon tows. The DREF yarns were consolidated to yield unidirectional composites (UDCs) referred to as UDC-D. PP in the form of powder was coated on carbon tows by electrostatic spray coating. The powder-coated towpregs were consolidated to form UDC-P. For the sake of comparison, a third UDC referred as UDC-F was manufactured by the consolidation of PP films stacked between carbon tows. The experiments were designed to yield a matching fiber volume fraction of about 50 % in all the three UDCs. A comparison of mechanical properties of the three composites was studied to understand the efficiency of matrix wetting and impregnation. Approximately 19% and 68% higher flexural strength were obtained for UDC-P than UDC-D and UDC-F respectively. Similarly, 25% and 81% higher modulus were observed in UDC-P than UDC-D and UDC-F respectively. Results from micro-computed tomography, scanning electron microscopy, and short beam tests indicate better impregnation of PP matrix in UDC-P obtained through electrostatic spray coating process and thereby higher flexural strength and modulus.

Keywords: DREF spinning, film stacking, flexural strength, powder coating, thermoplastic composite

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Authors: Shahin A. Abdel-Naby, Asad T. Hassan

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Astrophysical plasma environments can be classified into collisionally ionized (CP) and photoionizedplasmas (PP). In the PP, ionization is caused by an external radiation field, while it is caused by electron collision in the CP. Accurate and reliable laboratory astrophysical data for electron-ion recombination is needed for plasma modeling for low and high-temperatures. Dielectronic recombination (DR) is the dominant recombination process for the CP for most of the ions. When a free electron is captured by an ion with simultaneous excitation of its core, a doubly-exited intermediate state may be formed. The doubly excited state relaxes either by electron emission (autoionization) or by radiative decay (photon emission). DR process takes place when the relaxation occurs to a bound state by a photon emission. DR calculations at low-temperatures are problematic and challenging since small uncertaintiesin the low-energy DR resonance positions can produce huge uncertainties in DR rate coefficients.DR rate coefficients for N²⁺ and O³⁺ ions are calculated using state-of-the-art multi-configurationBreit-Pauli atomic structure AUTOSTRUCTURE collisional package within the generalized collisional-radiative framework. Level-resolved calculations for RR and DR rate coefficients from the ground and metastable initial states are produced in an intermediate coupling scheme associated withn = 0 and n = 1 core-excitations. DR cross sections for these ions are convoluted with the experimental electron-cooler temperatures to produce DR rate coefficients. Good agreements are foundbetween these rate coefficients and theexperimental measurements performed at CRYRING heavy-ionstorage ring for both ions.

Keywords: atomic data, atomic process, electron-ion collision, plasmas

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Authors: Robert Jedrys, Zdzislaw Kobos, Justyna Skrzynska, Zbigniew Wochynski

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Professions connected to aviation require an assessment of the suitability of health, psychological and psychomotor skills and overall physical fitness of the organism, who applies. Assessment of the physical condition is conducted by the committees consisting of aero-medical specialists in clinical medicine and aviation. In addition, psychological predispositions should be evaluated by specialized psychologists familiar with the specifics of the tasks and requirements for the various positions in aviation. Both, physical abilities and general physical fitness of candidates for aviation shall be assessed during the selection exams, which also test the ability to deal with stress what is very important in aviation. Hence, the mentioned exams in physical education not only help to judge on the ranking in candidates in terms of their efficiency and performance, but also allows to evaluate the functioning under stress measured using psychological tests. Moreover, before-test stress is a predictors of successfulness in the next stages of education and practical training in the aviation. The aim of the study was to evaluate the influence of temperamental traits on strategies used for coping with stress during selection exams in physical education, deciding on admission to aviation school. The study involved 30 candidates for fighter pilot training in aviation school . To evaluate the temperament 'The Formal Characteristics of Behavior-Temperament Inventory' (FCB-TI) by B. Zawadzki and J.Strelau was used. To determine the pattern of coping with stress 'The Coping Inventory for Stressful Situations' (CISS) to N. S. Endler and J. D. A. Parker were engaged. Study of temperament and styles of coping with stress was conducted directly before the exam selection of physical education. The results were analyzed with 'Statistica 9' program. The studies showed that:-There is a negative correlation between such a temperament feature as 'perseverance' and preferred style of coping with stress concentrated on the task (r = -0.590; p < 0.004); -There is a positive correlation between such a feature of temperament as 'emotional reactivity,' and preference to deal with a stressful situation with ‘style centered on emotions’ (r = 0.520; p <0.011); -There is a negative correlation between such a feature of temperament as ‘strength’ and ‘style of coping with stress concentrated on emotions’ (r = -0.580; p < 0.004). Studies indicate that temperament traits determine the perception of stress and preferred coping styles used during the selection, as during the exams in physical education.

Keywords: aviation, physical education, stress, temperamental traits

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Authors: Tetsya Sok, Seong Jae Hong, Young Kyu Kim, Seung Woo Lee

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The temperature distribution for asphalt concrete (AC)-Concrete composite pavement is one of main influencing factor that affects to performance life of pavement. The temperature gradient in concrete slab underneath the AC layer results the critical curling stress and lead to causes de-bonding of AC-Concrete interface. These stresses, when enhanced by repetitive axial loadings, also contribute to the fatigue damage and eventual crack development within the slab. Moreover, the temperature change within concrete slab extremely causes the slab contracts and expands that significantly induces reflective cracking in AC layer. In this paper, the numerical prediction of pavement temperature was investigated using one-dimensional finite different method (FDM) in fully explicit scheme. The numerical predicted model provides a fundamental and clear understanding of heat energy balance including incoming and outgoing thermal energies in addition to dissipated heat in the system. By using the reliable meteorological data for daily air temperature, solar radiation, wind speech and variable pavement surface properties, the predicted pavement temperature profile was validated with the field measured data. Additionally, the effects of AC thickness and daily air temperature on the temperature profile in underlying concrete were also investigated. Based on obtained results, the numerical predicted temperature of AC-Concrete composite pavement using FDM provided a good accuracy compared to field measured data and thicker AC layer significantly insulates the temperature distribution in underlying concrete slab.

Keywords: asphalt concrete, finite different method (FDM), curling effect, heat transfer, solar radiation

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Authors: Olanrewaju Rotimi Bodede, Akinlabi Oyetunji

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Modeling the dry compressive strength of sodium silicate bonded kaolin refractory bricks was studied. The materials used for this research work included refractory clay obtained from Ijero-Ekiti kaolin deposit on coordinates 7º 49´N and 5º 5´E, sodium silicate obtained from the open market in Lagos on coordinates 6°27′11″N 3°23′45″E all in the South Western part of Nigeria. The mineralogical composition of the kaolin clay was determined using the Energy Dispersive X-Ray Fluorescence Spectrometer (ED-XRF). The clay samples were crushed and sieved using the laboratory pulveriser, ball mill and sieve shaker respectively to obtain 100 μm diameter particles. Manual pipe extruder of dimension 30 mm diameter by 43.30 mm height was used to prepare the samples with varying percentage volume of sodium silicate 5 %, 7.5 % 10 %, 12.5 %, 15 %, 17.5 %, 20% and 22.5 % while kaolin and water were kept at 50 % and 5 % respectively for the comprehensive test. The samples were left to dry in the open laboratory atmosphere for 24 hours to remove moisture. The samples were then were fired in an electrically powered muffle furnace. Firing was done at the following temperatures; 700ºC, 750ºC, 800ºC, 850ºC, 900ºC, 950ºC, 1000ºC and 1100ºC. Compressive strength test was carried out on the dried samples using a Testometric Universal Testing Machine (TUTM) equipped with a computer and printer, optimum compression of 4.41 kN/mm2 was obtained at 12.5 % sodium silicate; the experimental results were modeled with MATLAB and Origin packages using polynomial regression equations that predicted the estimated values for dry compressive strength and later validated with Pearson’s rank correlation coefficient, thereby obtaining a very high positive correlation value of 0.97.

Keywords: dry compressive strength, kaolin, modeling, sodium silicate

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Authors: Felix Platzer, Eric Fimbinger

Abstract:

In Discrete Element Method (DEM) simulations, the breakage behavior of particles can be simulated based on different principles. In the case of large, complex-shaped particles that show various breakage patterns depending on the scenario leading to the failure and often only break locally instead of fracturing completely, some of these principles do not lead to realistic results. The reason for this is that in said cases, the methods in question, such as the Particle Replacement Method (PRM) or Voronoi Fracture, replace the initial particle (that is intended to break) into several sub-particles when certain breakage criteria are reached, such as exceeding the fracture energy. That is why those methods are commonly used for the simulation of materials that fracture completely instead of breaking locally. That being the case, when simulating local failure, it is advisable to pre-build the initial particle from sub-particles that are bonded together. The dimensions of these sub-particles consequently define the minimum size of the fracture results. This structure of bonded sub-particles enables the initial particle to break at the location of the highest local loads – due to the failure of the bonds in those areas – with several sub-particle clusters being the result of the fracture, which can again also break locally. In this project, different methods for the generation and calibration of complex-shaped particle conglomerates using bonded particle modeling (BPM) to enable the ability to depict more realistic fracture behavior were evaluated based on the example of filter cake. The method that proved suitable for this purpose and which furthermore allows efficient and realistic simulation of breakage behavior of complex-shaped particles applicable to industrial-sized simulations is presented in this paper.

Keywords: bonded particle model, DEM, filter cake, particle breakage

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Authors: M. R. Aher, R. B. Laware, G. S. Asane, B. S. Kuchekar

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Objective: Studies have shown that a new combination therapy with Artemisinin derivatives and curcumin is unique, with potential advantages over known ACTs. In present study an attempt was made to prepare microparticulate drug delivery system of Curcumin-Zn complex and evaluate it in combination with artemether for antimalarial activity. Material and method: Curcumin Zn complex was prepared and encapsulated using sodium alginate. Microparticles thus obtained are further coated with various enteric polymers at different coating thickness to control the release. Microparticles are evaluated for encapsulation efficiency, drug loading and in vitro drug release. Roentgenographic Studies was conducted in rabbits with BaSO 4 tagged formulation. Optimized formulation was screened for antimalarial activity using P. berghei-infected mice survival test and % paracetemia inhibition, alone (three oral dose of 5mg/day) and in combination with arthemether (i.p. 500, 1000 and 1500µg). Curcumin-Zn(II) was estimated in serum after oral administration to rats by using spectroflurometry. Result: Microparticles coated with Cellulose acetate phthalate showed most satisfactory and controlled release with 479 min time for 60% drug release. X-ray images taken at different time intervals confirmed the retention of formulation in GI tract. Estimation of curcumin in serum by spectroflurometry showed that drug concentration is maintained in the blood for longer time with tmax of 6 hours. The survival time (40 days post treatment) of mice infected with P. berghei was compared to survival after treatment with either Curcumin-Zn(II) microparticles artemether combination, curcumin-Zn complex and artemether. Oral administration of Curcumin-Zn(II)-artemether prolonged the survival of P.berghei-infected mice. All the mice treated with Curcumin-Zn(II) microparticles (5mg/day) artemether (1000µg) survived for more than 40 days and recovered with no detectable parasitemia. Administration of Curcumin-Zn(II) artemether combination reduced the parasitemia in mice by more than 90% compared to that in control mice for the first 3 days after treatment. Conclusion: Antimalarial activity of the curcumin Zn-artemether combination was more pronounced than mono therapy. A single dose of 1000µg of artemether in curcumin-Zn combination gives complete protection in P. berghei-infected mice. This may reduce the chances of drug resistance in malaria management.

Keywords: formulation, microparticulate drug delivery, antimalarial, pharmaceutics

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Authors: F. Deng, R. Sanchez, A. Beltran, S. Maestre

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The high nutritional value associated with seafood is related to the presence of essential trace elements. Moreover, seafood is considered an important source of energy, proteins, and long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids. Generally, seafood is consumed cooked. Consequently, the nutritional value could be degraded. Seafood, such as fish, shellfish, and seaweed, could be considered as one of the main iodine sources. The deficient or excessive consumption of iodine could cause dysfunction and pathologies related to the thyroid gland. The main objective of this work is to evaluated iodine stability in hake (Merluccius) undergone different culinary techniques. The culinary process considered were: boiling, steaming, microwave cooking, baking, cooking en papillote (twisted cover with the shape of a sweet wrapper) and coating with a batter of flour and deep-frying. The determination of iodine was carried by Inductively Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS). Regarding sample handling strategies, liquid-liquid extraction has demonstrated to be a powerful pre-concentration and clean-up approach for trace metal analysis by ICP techniques. Extraction with tetramethylammonium hydroxide (TMAH reagent) was used as a sample preparation method in this work. Based on the results, it can be concluded that the stability of iodine was degraded with the cooking processes. The major degradation was observed for the boiling and microwave cooking processes. The content of iodine in hake decreased up to 60% and 52%, respectively. However, if the boiling cooking liquid is preserved, this loss that has been generated during cooking is reduced. Only when the fish was cooked by following the cooking en papillote process the iodine content was preserved.

Keywords: cooking process, ICP-MS, iodine, hake

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Authors: R. J. Pontawe, R. C. Martinez, N. T. Asuncion, R. V. Villacorte

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Drying of high moisture paddy remains a major problem in the Philippines, especially during inclement weather condition. To alleviate the problem, mechanical dryers were used like a flat bed and recirculating batch-type dryers. However, drying to 14% (wet basis) final moisture content is long which takes 10-12 hours and tedious which is not the ideal for handling high moisture paddy. Fully-automated pilot-scale fluidized bed drying system with 500 kilograms per hour capacity was evaluated using a high moisture paddy. The developed fluidized bed dryer was evaluated using four drying temperatures and two variations in fluidization time at a constant airflow, static pressure and tempering period. Complete drying of paddy with ≥28% (w.b.) initial MC was attained after 2 passes of fluidized-bed drying at 2 minutes exposure to 70 °C drying temperature and 4.9 m/s superficial air velocity, followed by 60 min ambient air tempering period (30 min without ventilation and 30 min with air ventilation) for a total drying time of 2.07 h. Around 82% from normal mechanical drying time was saved at 70 °C drying temperature. The drying cost was calculated to be P0.63 per kilogram of wet paddy. Specific heat energy consumption was only 2.84 MJ/kg of water removed. The Head Rice Yield recovery of the dried paddy passed the Philippine Agricultural Engineering Standards. Sensory evaluation showed that the color and taste of the samples dried in the fluidized bed dryer were comparable to air dried paddy. The optimum drying parameters of using fluidized bed dryer is 70 oC drying temperature at 2 min fluidization time, 4.9 m/s superficial air velocity, 10.16 cm grain depth and 60 min ambient air tempering period.

Keywords: drying, fluidized bed dryer, head rice yield, paddy

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Authors: Pixiang Wang, Shaoyang Liu, Yucheng Peng

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Polypropylene (PP) is an essential material of numerous applications in different industrial sectors, including packaging, construction, and automotive. Because the application of homopolypropylene (HPP) is limited by its relatively low impact strength and high embrittlement temperature, various types of impact copolymer PP (ICPP) that incorporate elastomers/rubbers into HPP to increase impact strength have been successfully commercialized. Crystallization kinetics of an isotactic HPP, an ICPP, and their composites were studied in this work understand the composites’ behaviors better. The Avrami-Jeziorny model was used to describe the crystallization process. For most samples, the Avrami exponent, n, was greater than 3, indicating the crystal grew in three dimensions with spherical geometry. However, the n value could drop below 3 when the ICPP content was 80 wt.% or higher and the cooling rate was 7.5°C/min or lower, implying that the crystals could grow in two dimensions and some lamella structures could be formed under those conditions. The nucleation activity increased with the increase of the ICPP content, demonstrating that the rubber phase in the ICPP acted as a nucleation agent and facilitated the nucleation process. The decrease in crystallization rate after the ICPP content exceeded 60 wt.% might be caused by the excessive amount of crystal nuclei induced by the high ICPP content, which caused strong crystal-crystal interactions and limited the crystal growth space. The nucleation activity and the n value showed high correlations to the mechanical and thermal properties of the materials. The quantitative study of the kinetics of crystallization in this work could be a helpful reference for manufacturing ICPP and HPP/ICPP mixtures.

Keywords: polypropylene, crystallization kinetics, Avrami-Jeziorny model, crystallization activation energy, Nucleation activity

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Authors: Jaan-Willem Simon, Bertram Stier, Brett Bednarcyk, Evan Pineda, Stefanie Reese

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Textile composites, in which the reinforcing fibers are woven or braided, have become very popular in numerous applications in aerospace, automotive, and maritime industry. These textile composites are advantageous due to their ease of manufacture, damage tolerance, and relatively low cost. However, physics-based modeling of the mechanical behavior of textile composites is challenging. Compared to their unidirectional counterparts, textile composites introduce additional geometric complexities, which cause significant local stress and strain concentrations. Since these internal concentrations are primary drivers of nonlinearity, damage, and failure within textile composites, they must be taken into account in order for the models to be predictive. The macro-scale approach to modeling textile-reinforced composites treats the whole composite as an effective, homogenized material. This approach is very computationally efficient, but it cannot be considered predictive beyond the elastic regime because the complex microstructural geometry is not considered. Further, this approach can, at best, offer a phenomenological treatment of nonlinear deformation and failure. In contrast, the mesoscale approach to modeling textile composites explicitly considers the internal geometry of the reinforcing tows, and thus, their interaction, and the effects of their curved paths can be modeled. The tows are treated as effective (homogenized) materials, requiring the use of anisotropic material models to capture their behavior. Finally, the micro-scale approach goes one level lower, modeling the individual filaments that constitute the tows. This paper will compare meso- and micro-scale approaches to modeling the deformation, damage, and failure of textile-reinforced polymer matrix composites. For the mesoscale approach, the woven composite architecture will be modeled using the finite element method, and an anisotropic damage model for the tows will be employed to capture the local nonlinear behavior. For the micro-scale, two different models will be used, the one being based on the finite element method, whereas the other one makes use of an embedded semi-analytical approach. The goal will be the comparison and evaluation of these approaches to modeling textile-reinforced composites in terms of accuracy, efficiency, and utility.

Keywords: multiscale modeling, continuum damage model, damage interaction, textile composites

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Authors: Andre F. A. Cyrino

Abstract:

Knowing that the technological advance is the focus on the efficient extraction of energy from wind, and therefore in the design of wind turbine structures, this work aims the study of the fluid-structure interaction of an idealized wind turbine. The blade was studied as a beam attached to a cylindrical Hub with rotation axis pointing the air flow that passes through the rotor. Using the calculus of variations and the finite difference method the blade will be simulated by a discrete number of nodes and the aerodynamic forces were evaluated. The study presented here was written on Matlab and performs a numeric simulation of a simplified model of windmill containing a Hub and three blades modeled as Euler-Bernoulli beams for small strains and under the constant and uniform wind. The mathematical approach is done by Hamilton’s Extended Principle with the aerodynamic loads applied on the nodes considering the local relative wind speed, angle of attack and aerodynamic lift and drag coefficients. Due to the wide range of angles of attack, a wind turbine blade operates, the airfoil used on the model was NREL SERI S809 which allowed obtaining equations for Cl and Cd as functions of the angle of attack, based on a NASA study. Tridimensional flow effects were no taken in part, as well as torsion of the beam, which only bends. The results showed the dynamic response of the system in terms of displacement and rotational speed as the turbine reached the final speed. Although the results were not compared to real windmills or more complete models, the resulting values were consistent with the size of the system and wind speed.

Keywords: blade aerodynamics, fluid–structure interaction, wind turbine aerodynamics, wind turbine blade

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Authors: A. Assad, T. Zayed

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Water networks (WNs) are responsible of providing adequate amounts of safe, high quality, water to the public. As other critical infrastructure systems, WNs are subjected to deterioration which increases the number of breaks and leaks and lower water quality. In Canada, 35% of water assets require critical attention and there is a significant gap between the needed and the implemented investments. Thus, the need for efficient rehabilitation programs is becoming more urgent given the paradigm of aging infrastructure and tight budget. The first step towards developing such programs is to formulate a Performance Index that reflects the current condition of water assets along with its criticality. While numerous studies in the literature have focused on various aspects of condition assessment and reliability, limited efforts have investigated the criticality of such components. Critical water mains are those whose failure cause significant economic, environmental or social impacts on a community. Inclusion of criticality in computing the performance index will serve as a prioritizing tool for the optimum allocating of the available resources and budget. In this study, several social, economic, and environmental factors that dictate the criticality of a water pipelines have been elicited from analyzing the literature. Expert opinions were sought to provide pairwise comparisons of the importance of such factors. Subsequently, Fuzzy Logic along with Analytical Network Process (ANP) was utilized to calculate the weights of several criteria factors. Multi Attribute Utility Theories (MAUT) was then employed to integrate the aforementioned weights with the attribute values of several pipelines in Montreal WN. The result is a criticality index, 0-1, that quantifies the severity of the consequence of failure of each pipeline. A novel contribution of this approach is that it accounts for both the interdependency between criteria factors as well as the inherited uncertainties in calculating the criticality. The practical value of the current study is represented by the automated tool, Excel-MATLAB, which can be used by the utility managers and decision makers in planning for future maintenance and rehabilitation activities where high-level efficiency in use of materials and time resources is required.

Keywords: water networks, criticality assessment, asset management, fuzzy analytical network process

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Authors: Vladyslav Povoroznyuk, Larysa Martynyuk, Iryna Syzonenko, Liliya Martynyuk

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Osteoporosis is one of the important problems in postmenopausal women due to an increased risk of sudden and unexpected fractures. This study is aimed to determine the connection between bone mineral density (BMD) and trabecular bone score (TBS) in Ukrainian women suffering from metabolic syndrome. Participating in the study, 566 menopausal women aged 50-79 year-old were examined and divided into two groups: Group A included 336 women with no obesity (BMI ≤ 29.9 kg/m²), and Group B – 230 women with metabolic syndrome (diagnosis according to IDF criteria, 2005). Dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry was used for measuring of lumbar spine (L1-L4), femoral neck, total body and forearm BMD and bone quality indexes (last according to Med-Imaps installation). Data were analyzed using Statistical Package 6.0. A significant increase of lumbar spine (L1-L4), femoral neck, total body and ultradistal radius BMD was found in women with metabolic syndrome compared to those without obesity (p < 0.001) both in their totality and in groups of 50-59 years, 60-69 years, and 70-79 years. TBS was significantly higher in non-obese women compared to metabolic syndrome patients of 50-59 years and in the general sample (p < 0.05). Analysis showed significant positive correlation between body mass index (BMI) and BMD at all levels. Significant negative correlation between BMI and TBS (L1-L4) was established. Despite the fact that BMD indexes were significantly higher in women with metabolic syndrome, the frequency of vertebral and non-vertebral fractures did not differ significantly in the groups of patients.

Keywords: bone mineral density, trabecular bone score, metabolic syndrome, fracture

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Authors: Haidy S. Ghali, Engy Serag, A. Samer Ezeldin

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Copper is an essential raw material used in the construction industry. During the year 2021 and the first half of 2022, the global market suffered from a significant fluctuation in copper raw material prices due to the aftermath of both the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, which exposed its consumers to an unexpected financial risk. Thereto, this paper aims to develop two ANN-LSTM price prediction models, using Python, that can forecast the average monthly copper prices traded in the London Metal Exchange; the first model is a multivariate model that forecasts the copper price of the next 1-month and the second is a univariate model that predicts the copper prices of the upcoming three months. Historical data of average monthly London Metal Exchange copper prices are collected from January 2009 till July 2022, and potential external factors are identified and employed in the multivariate model. These factors lie under three main categories: energy prices and economic indicators of the three major exporting countries of copper, depending on the data availability. Before developing the LSTM models, the collected external parameters are analyzed with respect to the copper prices using correlation and multicollinearity tests in R software; then, the parameters are further screened to select the parameters that influence the copper prices. Then, the two LSTM models are developed, and the dataset is divided into training, validation, and testing sets. The results show that the performance of the 3-Month prediction model is better than the 1-Month prediction model, but still, both models can act as predicting tools for diverse economic situations.

Keywords: copper prices, prediction model, neural network, time series forecasting

Procedia PDF Downloads 111