Search results for: agricultural risks

Authors: Philip Robert Alldritt

Abstract:

The continuing increase in human migration is at crisis levels in all areas of the planet. The causes are varied, and the risks are high for the migrants. Migration has been ongoing since the beginning of human emergence on the planet, but for the first time in our historic memory has the, migration reached this level of critical mass. The causes are many. Climate collapse, economic opportunity, drug cartel activity, political upheaval, and gang wars. Many locations are seemingly “within reach” of the migrants, and the push factors are so loaded with hopelessness that almost anyone would be willing to risk anything to improve their conditions. There is no argument about that mass migrations are occurring and will increase in the future. The solutions to this increase are complex. This paper will examine the causes of migration and attempt to provide some reasonable solutions to mitigate the migrations with equitable outcomes that may guide immigration policy in impacted areas.

Keywords: immigration, crisis, climate, cartels

Procedia PDF Downloads 54

Authors: Ilyas Khan. Liliane Pintelon, Harry Martin, Michael Shömig

Abstract:

The increasing costs of healthcare on one hand, and the rise in aging population and associated chronic disease, on the other hand, are putting increasing burden on the current health care system in many Western countries. For instance, chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a common disease and in Europe, the cost of renal replacement therapy (RRT) is very significant to the total health care cost. However, the recent advancement in healthcare technology, provide the opportunity to treat patients at home in their own comfort. It is evident that home healthcare offers numerous advantages apparently, low costs and high patients’ quality of life. Despite these advantages, the intake of home hemodialysis (HHD) therapy is still low in particular in Germany. Many factors are accounted for the low number of HHD intake. However, this paper is focusing on patients’ safety-related factors of current HHD practices in Germany. The aim of this paper is to analyze the current HHD practices in Germany and to identify risks related factors if any exist. A case study has been conducted in a dialysis center which consists of four dialysis centers in the south of Germany. In total, these dialysis centers have 350 chronic dialysis patients, of which, four patients are on HHD. The centers have 126 staff which includes six nephrologists and 120 other staff i.e. nurses and administration. The results of the study revealed several risk-related factors. Most importantly, these centers do not offer allied health services at the pre-dialysis stage, the HHD training did not have an established curriculum; however, they have just recently developed the first version. Only a soft copy of the machine manual is offered to patients. Surprisingly, the management was not aware of any standard available for home assessment and installation. The home assessment is done by a third party (i.e. the machines and equipment provider) and they may not consider the hygienic quality of the patient’s home. The type of machine provided to patients at home is similar to the one in the center. The model may not be suitable at home because of its size and complexity. Even though portable hemodialysis machines, which are specially designed for home use, are available in the market such as the NxStage series. Besides the type of machine, no assistance is offered for space management at home in particular for placing the machine. Moreover, the centers do not offer remote assistance to patients and their carer at home. However, telephonic assistance is available. Furthermore, no alternative is offered if a carer is not available. In addition, the centers are lacking medical staff including nephrologists and renal nurses.

Keywords: home hemodialysis, home hemodialysis practices, patients’ related risks in the current home hemodialysis practices, patient safety in home hemodialysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 105

Authors: Sitarrine Thongpussawal, Hui Shao, Clark Gantzer

Abstract:

Terracing is a conservation practice to reduce erosion and widely used for soil and water conservation throughout the world but is relatively expensive. A modification of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (called SWAT-Terrace or SWAT-T) explicitly aims to improve the simulation of the hydrological process of erosion from the terraces. SWAT-T simulates erosion from the terraces by separating terraces into three segments instead of evaluating the entire terrace. The objective of this work is to evaluate the terrace benefits on erosion from the Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed (GCEW) at watershed and Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU) scales using SWAT-T. The HRU is the smallest spatial unit of the model, which lumps all similar land uses, soils, and slopes within a sub-basin. The SWAT-T model was parameterized for slope length, steepness and the empirical Universal Soil Erosion Equation support practice factor for three terrace segments. Data from 1993-2010 measured at the watershed outlet were used to evaluate the models for calibration and validation. Results of SWAT-T calibration showed good performance between measured and simulated erosion for the monthly time step, but poor performance for SWAT-T validation. This is probably because of large storms in spring 2002 that prevented planting, causing poorly simulated scheduling of actual field operations. To estimate terrace benefits on erosion, models were compared with and without terraces. Results showed that SWAT-T showed significant ~3% reduction in erosion (Pr <0.01) at the watershed scale and ~12% reduction in erosion at the HRU scale. Studies using the SWAT-T model indicated that the terraces have advantages to reduce erosion from terraced-agricultural watersheds. SWAT-T can be used in the evaluation of erosion to sustainably conserve the soil and water.

Keywords: Erosion, Modeling, Terraces, SWAT

Procedia PDF Downloads 186

Authors: Gulcin Yildiz, Gokcen Izli

Abstract:

Drying (dehydration) is the process of removing water from food in order to preserve the food. Drying is one of the oldest methods known for the preservation of agricultural products such as fruits and vegetables. Drying of agricultural products enhances their storage life, minimizes losses during storage, and save shipping and transportation costs. Apples are considered excellent candidates for drying. The objective of this research was to investigate the effects of microwave and oven processing on the quality of selected apple products. Red delicious and golden delicious apples were washed, peeled, and sliced. Drying experiments were performed in an oven at 50, 75 and 100 °C and in a microwave at 140 W and 210 W. Quality attributes such as color, total phenolic content and antioxidant capacity of dried samples with different methods were compared with the fresh sample. A Minolta CR-300 Chroma Meter was used to examine color changes in the apples. Total phenolic content was determined using the Folin-Ciocalteu reagent. The free radical scavenging activity of the extract was determined using 1,1-diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH). It was found that the phenolic contents and antioxidant capacities of dried samples under all drying conditions were decreased compared to the fresh samples. The phenolic contents of microwave dried samples at 140 W and 210 W for both red and golden delicious apples were higher than those of the oven drying at 50, 75 and 100 °C. Similarly, the antioxidant activities of microwave dried samples at 140 W and 210 W were higher than those of the oven drying at 50, 75 and 100 °C for both types of apples. All color parameters (L*, a*, b*) were changed significantly depending on the drying methods and temperatures. The closest color values to the fresh sample were found for the microwave dried samples at 140 W. Microwave drying was proven to be more effective than oven drying.

Keywords: antioxidant capacity, color, golden delicious, microwave, red delicious, total phenolic content

Procedia PDF Downloads 217

Authors: Jialin Wu, Zhiwei Lian, Jieyu Tang, Jingyun Shen

Abstract:

Tornado is a serious and unpredictable natural disaster, which has an important impact on people's production and life. The probability of being hit by tornadoes in China was analyzed considering the principles of tornado formation. Then some suggestions on layout and shapes for newly-built buildings were provided combined with the characteristics of tornado wind fields. Fuzzy clustering and inverse closeness methods were used to evaluate the probability levels of tornado risks in various provinces based on classification and ranking. GIS was adopted to display the results. Finally, wind field single-vortex tornado was studied to discuss the optimized design of rural low-rise houses in Yancheng, Jiangsu as an example. This paper may provide enough data to support building and urban design in some specific regions.

Keywords: tornado probability, computational fluid dynamics, fuzzy mathematics, optimal design

Procedia PDF Downloads 116

Authors: Yonas Shuke Kitawa

Abstract:

Background: Although malaria incidence has substantially fallen sharply over the past few years, the rate of decline varies by district, time, and malaria type. Despite this turn-down, malaria remains a major public health threat in various districts of Ethiopia. Consequently, the present study is aimed at developing a predictive model that helps to identify the spatio-temporal variation in malaria risk by multiple plasmodium species. Methods: We propose a multivariate spatio-temporal Bayesian model to obtain a more coherent picture of the temporally varying spatial variation in disease risk. The spatial autocorrelation in such a data set is typically modeled by a set of random effects that assign a conditional autoregressive prior distribution. However, the autocorrelation considered in such cases depends on a binary neighborhood matrix specified through the border-sharing rule. Over here, we propose a graph-based optimization algorithm for estimating the neighborhood matrix that merely represents the spatial correlation by exploring the areal units as the vertices of a graph and the neighbor relations as the series of edges. Furthermore, we used aggregated malaria count in southern Ethiopia from August 2013 to May 2019. Results: We recognized that precipitation, temperature, and humidity are positively associated with the malaria threat in the area. On the other hand, enhanced vegetation index, nighttime light (NTL), and distance from coastal areas are negatively associated. Moreover, nonlinear relationships were observed between malaria incidence and precipitation, temperature, and NTL. Additionally, lagged effects of temperature and humidity have a significant effect on malaria risk by either species. More elevated risk of P. falciparum was observed following the rainy season, and unstable transmission of P. vivax was observed in the area. Finally, P. vivax risks are less sensitive to environmental factors than those of P. falciparum. Conclusion: The improved inference was gained by employing the proposed approach in comparison to the commonly used border-sharing rule. Additionally, different covariates are identified, including delayed effects, and elevated risks of either of the cases were observed in districts found in the central and western regions. As malaria transmission operates in a spatially continuous manner, a spatially continuous model should be employed when it is computationally feasible.

Keywords: disease mapping, MSTCAR, graph-based optimization algorithm, P. falciparum, P. vivax, waiting matrix

Procedia PDF Downloads 57

Authors: Ahmad Haidar

Abstract:

The rapid adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology holds unforeseen risks like privacy violation, unemployment, and algorithmic bias, triggering research institutions, governments, and companies to develop principles of AI ethics. The extensive and diverse literature on AI lacks an analysis of the evolution of principles developed in recent years. There are two fundamental purposes of this paper. The first is to provide insights into how the principles of AI ethics have been changed recently, including concepts like risk management and public participation. In doing so, a NOISE (Needs, Opportunities, Improvements, Strengths, & Exceptions) analysis will be presented. Second, offering a framework for building Ethical AI linked to sustainability. This research adopts an explorative approach, more specifically, an inductive approach to address the theoretical gap. Consequently, this paper tracks the different efforts to have “trustworthy AI” and “ethical AI,” concluding a list of 12 documents released from 2017 to 2022. The analysis of this list unifies the different approaches toward trustworthy AI in two steps. First, splitting the principles into two categories, technical and net benefit, and second, testing the frequency of each principle, providing the different technical principles that may be useful for stakeholders considering the lifecycle of AI, or what is known as sustainable AI. Sustainable AI is the third wave of AI ethics and a movement to drive change throughout the entire lifecycle of AI products (i.e., idea generation, training, re-tuning, implementation, and governance) in the direction of greater ecological integrity and social fairness. In this vein, results suggest transparency, privacy, fairness, safety, autonomy, and accountability as recommended technical principles to include in the lifecycle of AI. Another contribution is to capture the different basis that aid the process of AI for sustainability (e.g., towards sustainable development goals). The results indicate data governance, do no harm, human well-being, and risk management as crucial AI for sustainability principles. This study’s last contribution clarifies how the principles evolved. To illustrate, in 2018, the Montreal declaration mentioned eight principles well-being, autonomy, privacy, solidarity, democratic participation, equity, and diversity. In 2021, notions emerged from the European Commission proposal, including public trust, public participation, scientific integrity, risk assessment, flexibility, benefit and cost, and interagency coordination. The study design will strengthen the validity of previous studies. Yet, we advance knowledge in trustworthy AI by considering recent documents, linking principles with sustainable AI and AI for sustainability, and shedding light on the evolution of guidelines over time.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, AI for sustainability, declarations, framework, regulations, risks, sustainable AI

Procedia PDF Downloads 76

Authors: Ismail Elkhrachy

Abstract:

Determination of land use changing is an important component of regional planning for applications ranging from urban fringe change detection to monitoring change detection of land use. This data are very useful for natural resources management.On the other hand, the technologies and methods of change detection also have evolved dramatically during past 20 years. So it has been well recognized that the change detection had become the best methods for researching dynamic change of land use by multi-temporal remotely-sensed data. The objective of this paper is to assess, evaluate and monitor land use change surrounding the area of Najran city, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) using Landsat images (June 23, 2009) and ETM+ image(June. 21, 2014). The post-classification change detection technique was applied. At last,two-time subset images of Najran city are compared on a pixel-by-pixel basis using the post-classification comparison method and the from-to change matrix is produced, the land use change information obtained.Three classes were obtained, urban, bare land and agricultural land from unsupervised classification method by using Erdas Imagine and ArcGIS software. Accuracy assessment of classification has been performed before calculating change detection for study area. The obtained accuracy is between 61% to 87% percent for all the classes. Change detection analysis shows that rapid growth in urban area has been increased by 73.2%, the agricultural area has been decreased by 10.5 % and barren area reduced by 7% between 2009 and 2014. The quantitative study indicated that the area of urban class has unchanged by 58.2 km〗^2, gained 70.3 〖km〗^2 and lost 16 〖km〗^2. For bare land class 586.4〖km〗^2 has unchanged, 53.2〖km〗^2 has gained and 101.5〖km〗^2 has lost. While agriculture area class, 20.2〖km〗^2 has unchanged, 31.2〖km〗^2 has gained and 37.2〖km〗^2 has lost.

Keywords: land use, remote sensing, change detection, satellite images, image classification

Procedia PDF Downloads 509

Authors: Emmanuel Olugbenga Fakoya

Abstract:

The study examined the perceived impact of climate change on the livelihood of arable crop farmers in Ipokia Local Government Area of Ogun State, Nigeria. Multistage sampling technique was used to select 80 arable crop farmers in the study area. Data collected were analyzed using percentages, frequencies and Chi square analysis. The result showed that 63.8 percent of the respondents were male while 55.0 percent were married. Less than half (30.0 percent) of the respondents were between the age bracket of 41-50 years and 50.0 percent had 6-10 household size. Furthermore, majority (40.0 percent) of the arable crop farmers farmed on an inherited land and 51.3 percent had 2-3 hectares of land. Majority (38.8 percent) of the farmers intercrop maize with cassava and maize with yam. Various strategies adapted to reduce the effect of climate change on their crop and livelihood include: crop rotation (53.8 percent), planting of leguminous crop (35.0 percent), application of organic fertilizers (45.0 percent), mulching (56.3 percent) and by planting drought resistance crops (46.5 percent). Reported among the effects of climate change on crop and farmers’ livelihood were: discoloration of crop leave (63.8 percent), increase infestation of pests and diseases (58.8 percent) and reduction of crop yield (60.0 percent). Chi- square analysis showed significant relationship between impact of climate change on arable crop production and thus famers’ livelihood. It was concluded from the study that climate change is an impinging factor that seriously affect arable crop production and hence farmers’ livelihood despite coping strategies to minimize its effect. It was however recommended that Agricultural policies and practices that could minimize or eliminate its effect should be seriously enacted to boost production and increase farmers’ livelihood.

Keywords: agricultural extension, extension agent, private sector, perception

Procedia PDF Downloads 428

Authors: Nida Rizvi, Deeksha Katyal, Varun Joshi

Abstract:

River Hindon is an important river catering the demand of highly populated rural and industrial cluster of western Uttar Pradesh, India. Water quality of river Hindon is deteriorating at an alarming rate due to various industrial, municipal and agricultural activities. The present study aimed at identifying the pollution sources and quantifying the degree to which these sources are responsible for the deteriorating water quality of the river. Various water quality parameters, like pH, temperature, electrical conductivity, total dissolved solids, total hardness, calcium, chloride, nitrate, sulphate, biological oxygen demand, chemical oxygen demand and total alkalinity were assessed. Water quality data obtained from eight study sites for one year has been subjected to the two multivariate techniques, namely, principal component analysis and cluster analysis. Principal component analysis was applied with the aim to find out spatial variability and to identify the sources responsible for the water quality of the river. Three Varifactors were obtained after varimax rotation of initial principal components using principal component analysis. Cluster analysis was carried out to classify sampling stations of certain similarity, which grouped eight different sites into two clusters. The study reveals that the anthropogenic influence (municipal, industrial, waste water and agricultural runoff) was the major source of river water pollution. Thus, this study illustrates the utility of multivariate statistical techniques for analysis and elucidation of multifaceted data sets, recognition of pollution sources/factors and understanding temporal/spatial variations in water quality for effective river water quality management.

Keywords: cluster analysis, multivariate statistical techniques, river Hindon, water quality

Procedia PDF Downloads 444

Authors: Abebaw Assaye, Seiichi Sakurai, Marutama Atsush, Dawit Alemu

Abstract:

Rice is considered as a strategic agricultural commodity targeting national food security and import substitution in Ethiopia and diverse measures are put in place a number of initiatives to ensure the growth and development of rice sector in the country. This study assessed factors that influence smallholder farmers' level of rice commercialization in Ethiopia. The required data were generated from 594 randomly sampled rice producers using multi-stage sampling techniques from four major rice-producing regional states. Both descriptive and econometric methods were used to analyze the data. We adopted the ordered probit model to analyze factors determining output commercialization in the rice market. The ordered probit model result showed that the sex of the household head, educational status of the household head, credit use, proportion of irrigated land cultivated, membership in social groups, and land dedicated to rice production were found to influence significantly and positively the probability of being commercial-oriented. Conversely, the age of the household, total cultivated land, and distance to the main market were found to influence negatively. These findings suggest that promoting productivity-increasing technologies, development of irrigation facilities, strengthening of social institutions, and facilitating access to credit are crucial for enhancing the commercialization of rice in the study area. Since agricultural lands are limited, intensified farming through promoting improved rice technologies and mechanized farming could be an option to enhance marketable surplus and increase level of rice market particicpation.

Keywords: rice, commercialization, Tobit, ordered probit, Ethiopia

Procedia PDF Downloads 66

Authors: Subhra Chattopadhyay

Abstract:

New Towns are usually built up at city-periphery with an eye to accommodate overspill population and functions of the city. ‘New towns are self-sufficient planned towns having a full range of urban economic and social activities, so it can provide employments for all of its inhabitants as well as a balanced self-content social community could be maintained’. In 3rd world countries New towns often emerge from scratch i.e on the area having no urban background and therefore, it needs a massive land conversion from rural to urban. This paper aims to study the implication of such land title transfer into rural sustainability with a case study at Jatragachi, New Town Kolkata. Broad objectives of this study are to understand 1. new changes in this area like i)changes in land use, ii) demographic changes, iii) occupational changes of the local people and 2.their view about new town planning. Major observations are stated below. The studied area was completely rural till recent years and is now at the heart of New Town Kolkata. Though this area is now under the jurisdiction of New Town Kolkata Development Authority (NKDA), it is still administrated by rural self-government.It creates administrative confusion and misuse of public capital. It is observed in this study that cultivation was the mainstay of livelihood for the majority of residents till recent past. There was a dramatic rise in irrigated area in the decade of 90’s pointing out agricultural prosperity.The area achieved the highest productivity of rice in the District. Percentage of marginal workers dropped significantly.In addition to it, ascending women’s literacy rate as found in this rural Mouza obviously indicates a constant social progress .Through land conversion, this flourishing agricultural land has been transformed into urban area with highly sophisticated uses. Such development may satisfy educated urban elite but the dwellers of the area suffer a lot. They bear the cost of new town planning through loss of their assured food and income as well as their place identity. The number of marginal workers increases abruptly. The growth of female literacy drops down. The area loses its functional linkages with its surroundings and fails to prove its actual growth potentiality. The physical linkages( like past roads and irrigation infrastructure) which had developed through time to support the economy become defunct. The ecological services which were provided by the agricultural field are denied. The historicity of this original site is demolished. Losses of the inhabitants of the area who have been evicted are also immense and cannot be materially compensated. Therefore, the ethos of such new town planning in stake of rural sustainability is under question. Need for an integrated approach for rural and urban development planning is felt in this study.

Keywords: new town, sustainable development, growth potentiality, land transfer

Procedia PDF Downloads 298

Authors: Jill Round

Abstract:

In the economic system, the financial sector plays a crucial role as an intermediary between market participants, other financial institutions, and customers. Financial institutions such as banks have to make decisions to satisfy the demands of all the participants by keeping abreast of regulatory change. In recent years, progress has been made regarding frameworks, development of rules, standards, and processes to manage risks in the banking sector. The increasing focus of regulators and policymakers placed on risk management, corporate governance, and the organization’s culture is of special interest as it requires a well-resourced risk controlling function, compliance function, and internal audit function. In the past years, the relevance of these functions that make up the so-called Three Lines of Defense has moved from the backroom to the boardroom. The approach of the model can vary based on the various organizational characteristics. Due to the intense regulatory requirements, organizations operating in the financial sector have more mature models. In less regulated industries there is more cloudiness about what tasks are allocated where. All parties strive to achieve their objectives through the effective management of risks and serve the identical stakeholders. Today, the Three Lines of Defense model is used throughout the world. The research looks at trends and emerging issues in the professions of the Three Lines of Defense within the banking sector. The answers are believed to helping to explain the increasing regulatory requirements for the banking sector. While the number of supervisory practices increases the risk management requirements intensify and demand more regulatory compliance at the same time. The Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) is applied by making use of conducted surveys in the research field. It aims to describe (i) the theoretical model regarding the applicable linearity relationships, (ii) the causal relationship between multiple predictors (exogenous) and multiple dependent variables (endogenous), (iii) taking into consideration the unobservable variables and (iv) the measurement errors. The surveys conducted on the research field suggest that the observable variables are caused by various latent variables. The SEM consists of the 1) measurement model and the 2) structural model. There is a detectable correlation regarding the cause-effect relationship among the performed supervisory practices and the increasing scope of regulation. Supervisory practices reinforce the regulatory density. In the past, controls were placed after supervisory practices were conducted or incidents occurred. In further research, it is of interest to examine, whether risk management is proactive, reactive to incidents and supervisory practices or can be both at the same time.

Keywords: risk management, structural equation model, supervisory practice, three lines of defense

Procedia PDF Downloads 204

Authors: Eleni Panagiotarakou

Abstract:

This paper argues that humans have a collective moral responsibility to help wild animals during the Anthropocene era. Seen from the perspective of deontic logic, this moral responsibility did not exist in the Holocene era (ca. 11,700 BC-1945 AD) on account of humanity’s limited impact on the natural environment. By contrast in the Anthropocene, human activities are causing significant disturbances to planetary ecosystems and by inference to wildlife communities. Under these circumstances controversial and deeply regrettable interventional methods such as Managed Relocations (MR) and synthetic biology should be expanded and become policy measures despite their known and unknown risks. The main rationale for the above stems from the fact that traditional management strategies are simply insufficient in the Anthropocene. If the same anthropogenic activities continue unabated they risk triggering a sixth mass species extinction.

Keywords: anthropocene, humanitarian interventions, managed relocations, species extinctions, synthetic biology

Procedia PDF Downloads 229

Authors: Mazwane S., Makhura M. N., Ginege A.

Abstract:

Digitalization in South Africa has received considerable attention from policymakers. The support for the development of the digital economy by the South African government has been demonstrated through the enactment of various national policies and strategies. This study sought to develop an index for agricultural digitalization by applying composite confirmatory analysis (CCA). Another aim was to determine the factors that affect the development of digitalization in PLAS farms. Data on the indicators of the three dimensions of digitalization were collected from 300 Proactive Land Acquisition Strategy (PLAS) farms in South Africa using semi-structured questionnaires. Confirmatory composite analysis (CCA) was employed to reduce the items into three digitalization dimensions and ultimately to a digitalization index. Standardized digitalization index scores were extracted and fitted to a linear regression model to determine the factors affecting digitalization development. The results revealed that the model shows practical validity and can be used to measure digitalization development as measures of fit (geodesic distance, standardized root mean square residual, and squared Euclidean distance) were all below their respective 95%quantiles of bootstrap discrepancies (HI95 values). Therefore, digitalization is an emergent variable that can be measured using CCA. The average level of digitalization in PLAS farms was 0.2 and varied significantly across provinces. The factors that significantly influence digitalization development in PLAS land reform farms were age, gender, farm type, network type, and cellular data type. This should enable researchers and policymakers to understand the level of digitalization and patterns of development, as well as correctly attribute digitalization development to the contributing factors.

Keywords: agriculture, digitalization, confirmatory composite model, land reform, proactive land acquisition strategy, South Africa

Procedia PDF Downloads 39

Authors: Linda Márcia Mendes Delazeri, Dênis Antônio Da Cunha

Abstract:

Over the past few years, the evidence that human activities have altered the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have become stronger, indicating that this accumulation is the most likely cause of climate change observed so far. The risks associated with climate change, although uncertain, have the potential to increase social vulnerability, exacerbating existing socioeconomic challenges. Developing countries are potentially the most affected by climate change, since they have less potential to adapt and are those most dependent on agricultural activities, one of the sectors in which the major negative impacts are expected. In Brazil, specifically, it is expected that the localities which form the semiarid region are among the most affected, due to existing irregularity in rainfall and high temperatures, in addition to economic and social factors endemic to the region. Given the strategic limitations to handle the environmental shocks caused by climate change, an alternative adopted in response to these shocks is migration. Understanding the specific features of migration flows, such as duration, destination and composition is essential to understand the impacts of migration on origin and destination locations and to develop appropriate policies. Thus, this study aims to examine whether climatic factors have contributed to rural-urban migration in semiarid municipalities in the recent past and how these migration flows will be affected by future scenarios of climate change. The study was based on microeconomic theory of utility maximization, in which, to decide to leave the countryside and move on to the urban area, the individual seeks to maximize its utility. Analytically, we estimated an econometric model using the modeling of Fixed Effects and the results confirmed the expectation that climate drivers are crucial for the occurrence of the rural-urban migration. Also, other drivers of the migration process, as economic, social and demographic factors were also important. Additionally, predictions about the rural-urban migration motivated by variations in temperature and precipitation in the climate change scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 were made for the periods 2016-2035 and 2046-2065, defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The results indicate that there will be increased rural-urban migration in the semiarid region in both scenarios and in both periods. In general, the results of this study reinforce the need for formulations of public policies to avoid migration for climatic reasons, such as policies that give support to the productive activities generating income in rural areas. By providing greater incentives for family agriculture and expanding sources of credit for the farmer, it will have a better position to face climate adversities and to settle in rural areas. Ultimately, if migration becomes necessary, there must be the adoption of policies that seek an organized and planned development of urban areas, considering migration as an adaptation strategy to adverse climate effects. Thus, policies that act to absorb migrants in urban areas and ensure that they have access to basic services offered to the urban population would contribute to the social costs reduction of climate variability.

Keywords: climate change, migration, rural productivity, semiarid region

Procedia PDF Downloads 334

Authors: Driouiche Ali, Karmal Ilham

Abstract:

The Agadir region is characterized by a dry climate, ranging from arid attenuated by oceanic influences to hyper-arid. The water mobilized in the agricultural sector of greater Agadir is 95% of underground origin and comes from the water table of Chtouka. The rest represents the surface waters of the Youssef Ben Tachfine dam. These waters are intended for the irrigation of 26880 hectares of modern agriculture. More than 120 boreholes and wells are currently exploited. Their depth varies between 10 m and 200 m and the unit flow rates of the boreholes are 5 to 50 l/s. A drop in the level of the water table of about 1.5 m/year, on average, has been observed during the last five years. Farmers are thus called upon to improve irrigation methods. Thus, localized or drip irrigation is adopted to allow rational use of water. The importance of this irrigation system is due to the fact that water is applied directly to the root zone and its compatibility with fertilization. However, this irrigation system faces a thorny problem which is the clogging of pipes and drippers. This leads to a lack of uniformity of irrigation over time. This so-called scaling phenomenon, the consequences of which are harmful (cleaning or replacement of pipes), leads to considerable unproductive expenditure. The objective set by this work is the search for green inhibitors likely to prevent this phenomenon of scaling. This study requires a better knowledge of these waters, their physico-chemical characteristics and their scaling power. Thus, using the "LCGE" controlled degassing technique, we initially evaluated, on pure calco-carbonic water at 30°F, the scaling-inhibiting power of some available plant extracts in our region of Souss-Massa. We then carried out a comparative study of the efficacy of these green inhibitors. The action of the most effective green inhibitor on real agricultural waters was then studied.

Keywords: green inhibitors, localized irrigation, plant extracts, scaling inhibition

Procedia PDF Downloads 69

Authors: Yousefi Aryian, Ghanbaripour Amir naser

Abstract:

Record of 2 million trips during a day by subway makes it the most application and the most efficient branch of public transportation. Great safety, energy consumption reduction, appropriate speed, and lower prices for passengers in comparison with private cars or buses, are some reasons for this remarkable statics. This increasing popularity compels the author to evaluate the safety of subway stations and tunnels against fire and fire extinguishing systems in Tehran subway network and then compare some of its safety parameters to other countries. This paper assessed the methods and systems used in different parts of Tehran subway and then by comparing the facilities and equipment necessary to declare and extinguish the fire, the solutions and world standards (NFPA) are explored.

Keywords: subway station, tunnel, fire alarm, extinguishing fire, NFPA standards

Procedia PDF Downloads 457

Authors: Arzu K. Kamberli

Abstract:

This article examines the relationship between economics and physics, starting with Adam Smith, with a new econophysics approach in Economics-Physics with the Gauss Law model proposal using for the Electric Field calculation, which will allow us to anticipate the Global Financial Crisis. For this purpose, the similarities between the Gauss Law using the electric field calculations and the global financial crisis have been explained on the formula, and a model has been suggested to predict the risks of the financial systems from the electricity field calculations. Thus, this study is expected to help for preventing the Global Financial Crisis with the contribution of the science of economics and physics from the aspect of econophysics.

Keywords: econophysics, electric field, financial system, Gauss law, global financial crisis

Procedia PDF Downloads 263

Authors: Tan Hui Ying Renee, Stella Rizalina Sasha, Farah Safdar Husain

Abstract:

Introduction: Menopause Hormone Therapy (MHT) is an effective drug indicated for the treatment of menopausal symptoms and as replacement therapy in women who undergo premature menopause. In 2020, less than 8.8% of perimenopausal Singaporean women are on hormonal therapy, as compared to the Western population, where up to 50% may be on MHT. Factors associated with MHT utilization have been studied from patient characteristics, but the impact of locally prescribing physicians resulting in low MHT utilization has yet to be evaluated. The aim of the study is to determine the level of knowledge physicians in the Obstetrics and Gynaecology specialty have and their attitudes toward MHT. We believe that knowledge of MHT is lacking and that negative attitudes towards MHT may influence its use and undermine the benefits MHT may have for women. This paper is a part of a larger study on Singaporean physicians’ knowledge and attitudes towards MHT. Methods: This is a cross-sectional study intended to assess the knowledge and attitudes of physicians toward Menopausal Hormone Therapy. An anonymous questionnaire was disseminated via institutional internal circulations to optimize reach to physicians who may prescribe MHT, particularly in the fields of Gynaecology, Family Medicine and Endocrinology. Responses were completed voluntarily. Physicians had the option for each question to declare that they were ‘unsure’ or that the question was ‘beyond their expertise’. 21 knowledge questions tested factual recall on indications, contraindications, and risks of MHT. The remaining 6 questions were clinical scenarios crafted with the intention of testing specific principles related to the use of MHT. These questions received face validation from experts in the field. 198 responses were collected, 79 of which were from physicians in the Obstetrics and Gynaecology specialty. The data will be statistically analyzed to investigate areas that can be improved to increase the overall benefits of MHT for the Singaporean population. Results: Preliminary results show that the prevailing factors that limit Singaporean gynecologists and obstetricians from prescribing MHT are a lack of knowledge of MHT and a lack of confidence in prescribing MHT. Risks and indications of MHT were not well known by many physicians, with the majority of the questions having more than 25% incorrect and ‘unsure’ as their reply. The clinical scenario questions revealed significant shortcomings in knowledge on how to navigate real-life challenges in MHT use, with 2 of 6 questions with more than 50% incorrect or ‘beyond their expertise’ as their reply. The portion of the questionnaire that investigated the attitudes of physicians showed that though a large majority believed MHT to be an effective drug, only 40.5% were confident in prescribing it. Conclusion: Physicians in the Obstetrics and Gynaecology specialty lack knowledge and confidence in MHT. Therefore, it is imperative to formulate solutions on both the individual and institutional levels to fill these gaps and ensure that MHT is used appropriately and prescribed to the patients who need it.

Keywords: menopause, menopause hormone therapy, physician factors, obstetrics and gynecology, menopausal symptoms, Singapore

Procedia PDF Downloads 19

Authors: Roopa Singh, Anurag Singh, Ajay

Abstract:

Agriculture contributes a major share in the national economy of India. A major portion of Indian economy (about 70%) depends upon agriculture as it forms the main source of income. About 43% of India’s geographical area is used for agricultural activity which involves 65-75% of total population of India. The given work deals with the Fast moving Consumer Goods (FMCG) industries and their inventories which use agricultural produce as their raw material or input for their final product. Since the beginning of inventory practices, many developments took place which can be categorised into three phases, based on the review of various works. The first phase is related with development and utilization of Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) model and methods for optimizing costs and profits. Second phase deals with inventory optimization method, with the purpose of balancing capital investment constraints and service level goals. The third and recent phase has merged inventory control with electrical control theory. Maintenance of inventory is considered negative, as a large amount of capital is blocked especially in mechanical and electrical industries. But the case is different in food processing and agro-based industries and their inventories due to cyclic variation in the cost of raw materials of such industries which is the reason for selection of these industries in the mentioned work. The application of electrical control theory in inventory control makes the decision-making highly instantaneous for FMCG industries without loss in their proposed profits, which happened earlier during first and second phases, mainly due to late implementation of decision. The work also replaces various inventories and work-in-progress (WIP) related errors with their monetary values, so that the decision-making is fully target-oriented.

Keywords: control theory, inventory control, manufacturing sector, EOQ, feedback, FMCG sector

Procedia PDF Downloads 341

Authors: Chukwuebuka Vincent Azuka, Chidimma Peace Odoh

Abstract:

Changes in agricultural practices and land use influence the storage and release of soil organic carbon and soil structural dynamics. To investigate this in Nsukka, southeastern Nigeria, soil samples were collected at 0-10 cm, 10-20 cm and 20-30 cm from three locations; Ovoko (OV), Obukpa (OB) and University of Nigeria, Nsukka (UNN) and three land use types; cultivated land (CL), forest land (FL) and grassland (GL)). Data were subjected to analysis of variance (ANOVA) using SPSS. Also, correlations between organic carbon stock, structural stability indices and other soil properties were established. The result showed that Ksat was significantly (p < 0.05) influenced by location with mean values of 68 cmhr⁻¹,121.63 cmhr⁻¹, 8.42 cmhr⁻¹ in OV, OB and UNN respectively. The MWD and aggregate stability (AS) were significantly (p < 0.05) influenced by land use and depth. The mean values of MWD are 0.85 (CL), 1.35 (FL) and 1.45 (GL), and 1.66 at 0-10 cm, 1.08 at 10-20 cm and 0.88 mm at 20-30 cm. The mean values of AS are; 27.66% (CL), 46.39% (FL) and 49.81% (GL), and 53.96% at 0-10cm, 40.22% at 10-20cm and 29.57% at 20-30cm. Clay flocculation (CFI) and dispersion indices (CDI) differed significantly (p < 0.05) among the land use. Soil pH differed significantly (p < 0.05) across the land use and locations with mean values ranging from 3.90-6.14. Soil organic carbon (SOC) significantly (p < 0.05) differed across locations and depths. SOC decreases as depth increases depth with mean values of 15.6 gkg⁻¹, 10.1 gkg⁻¹, and 8.6 gkg⁻¹ at 0-10 cm, 10-20 cm, and 20-30 cm respectively. SOC in the three land use was 8.8 g kg-1, 15.2 gkg⁻¹ and 10.4 gkg⁻¹ at CL, FL, and GL respectively. The highest aggregate-associated carbon was recorded in 0.5 mm across the land use and depth except in cultivated land and at 20-30 cm which recorded their highest SOC at 1mm. SOC stock, total nitrogen (TN) and CEC were significantly (p < 0.05) different across the locations with highest values of 23.43 t/ha, 0.07g/kg and 14.27 Cmol/kg respectively recorded in UNN. SOC stock was significantly (p < 0.05) influenced by depth as follows; 0-10>10-20>20-30 cm. TN was low with mean values ranging from 0.03-0.07 across the locations, land use and depths. The mean values of CEC ranged from 9.96-14.27 Cmol kg⁻¹ across the locations and land use. SOC stock showed correlation with silt, coarse sand, N and CEC (r = 0.40*, -0.39*, -0.65** and 0.64** respectively. AS showed correlation with BD, Ksat, pH in water and KCl, and SOC (r = -0.42*, 0.54**, -0.44*, -0.45* and 0.49** respectively. Thus, land use and location play a significant role in sustainable management of soil resources.

Keywords: agricultural practices, structural dynamics, sequestration, soil resources, management

Procedia PDF Downloads 127

Authors: M.Rüştü Karaman, İsmail İşeri, Kadir Saltalı, A.Reşit Brohi, Ayhan Horuz, Mümin Dizman

Abstract:

Considerable relations has recently been given to the environmental hazardous caused by agricultural chemicals such as excess fertilizers. In this study, a neural network approach was investigated in the prediction of potential nitrate pollution across different land-use patterns by using a feedforward multilayered computer model of artificial neural network (ANN) with proper training. Periodical concentrations of some anions, especially nitrate (NO3-), and cations were also detected in drainage waters collected from the drain pipes placed in irrigated tomato field, unirrigated wheat field, fallow and pasture lands. The soil samples were collected from the irrigated tomato field and unirrigated wheat field on a grid system with 20 m x 20 m intervals. Site specific nitrate concentrations in the soil samples were measured for ANN based simulation of nitrate leaching potential from the land profiles. In the application of ANN model, a multi layered feedforward was evaluated, and data sets regarding with training, validation and testing containing the measured soil nitrate values were estimated based on spatial variability. As a result of the testing values, while the optimal structures of 2-15-1 was obtained (R2= 0.96, P < 0.01) for unirrigated field, the optimal structures of 2-10-1 was obtained (R2= 0.96, P < 0.01) for irrigated field. The results showed that the ANN model could be successfully used in prediction of the potential leaching levels of nitrate, based on different land use patterns. However, for the most suitable results, the model should be calibrated by training according to different NN structures depending on site specific soil parameters and varied agricultural managements.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, ANN, drainage water, nitrate pollution

Procedia PDF Downloads 292

Authors: Jan Stodt, Christoph Reich

Abstract:

The usage of machine learning models for prediction is growing rapidly and proof that the intended requirements are met is essential. Audits are a proven method to determine whether requirements or guidelines are met. However, machine learning models have intrinsic characteristics, such as the quality of training data, that make it difficult to demonstrate the required behavior and make audits more challenging. This paper describes an ML audit framework that evaluates and reviews the risks of machine learning applications, the quality of the training data, and the machine learning model. We evaluate and demonstrate the functionality of the proposed framework by auditing an steel plate fault prediction model.

Keywords: audit, machine learning, assessment, metrics

Procedia PDF Downloads 251

Authors: Aditi Madan, Jayant Kumar Routray

Abstract:

Purpose: Over the years flood related risks have compounded due to increasing vulnerability caused by rapid urbanisation and growing population. This increase is an indication of the need for enhancing the preparedness of institutions to respond to floods. The study describes disaster management structure and its linkages with institutions involved in managing disasters. It addresses issues and challenges associated with readiness of disaster management institutions to respond to floods. It suggests policy options for enhancing the current state of readiness of institutions to respond by considering factors like institutional, manpower, financial, technical, leadership & networking, training and awareness programs, monitoring and evaluation. Methodology: The study is based on qualitative data with statements and outputs from primary and secondary sources to understand the institutional framework for disaster management in India. Primary data included field visits, interviews with officials from institutions managing disasters and the affected community to identify the challenges faced in engaging national, state, district and local level institutions in managing disasters. For focus group discussions, meetings were held with district project officers and coordinators, local officials, community based organisation, civil defence volunteers and community heads. These discussions were held to identify the challenges associated with preparedness to respond of institutions to floods. Findings: Results show that disasters are handled by district authority and the role of local institutions is limited to a reactive role during disaster. Data also indicates that although the existing institutional setup is well coordinated at the district level but needs improvement at the local level. Wide variations exist in awareness and perception among the officials engaged in managing disasters. Additionally, their roles and responsibilities need to be clearly defined with adequate budget and dedicated permanent staff for managing disasters. Institutions need to utilise the existing manpower through proper delegation of work. Originality: The study suggests that disaster risk reduction needs to focus more towards inclusivity of the local urban bodies. Wide variations exist in awareness and perception among the officials engaged in managing disasters. In order to ensure community participation, it is important to address their social and economic problems since such issues can overshadow attempts made for reducing risks. Thus, this paper suggests development of direct linkages among institutions and community for enhancing preparedness to respond to floods.

Keywords: preparedness, response, disaster, flood, community, institution

Procedia PDF Downloads 220

Authors: Muhammad Karim Ahmadzai

Abstract:

Floods are natural phenomena and are an integral part of the water cycle. The majority of them are the result of climatic conditions, but are also affected by the geology and geomorphology of the area, topography and hydrology, the water permeability of the soil and the vegetation cover, as well as by all kinds of human activities and structures. However, from the moment that human lives are at risk and significant economic impact is recorded, this natural phenomenon becomes a natural disaster. Flood management is now a key issue at regional and local levels around the world, affecting human lives and activities. The majority of floods are unlikely to be fully predicted, but it is feasible to reduce their risks through appropriate management plans and constructions. The aim of this Case Study is to identify, and map areas of flood risk in the Khinch District of Panjshir Province, Afghanistan specifically in the area of Peshghore, causing numerous damages. The main purpose of this study is to evaluate the contribution of remote sensing technology and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) in assessing the susceptibility of this region to flood events. Panjsher is facing Seasonal floods and human interventions on streams caused floods. The beds of which have been trampled to build houses and hotels or have been converted into roads, are causing flooding after every heavy rainfall. The streams crossing settlements and areas with high touristic development have been intensively modified by humans, as the pressure for real estate development land is growing. In particular, several areas in Khinch are facing a high risk of extensive flood occurrence. This study concentrates on the construction of a flood susceptibility map, of the study area, by combining vulnerability elements, using the Analytical Hierarchy Process/ AHP. The Analytic Hierarchy Process, normally called AHP, is a powerful yet simple method for making decisions. It is commonly used for project prioritization and selection. AHP lets you capture your strategic goals as a set of weighted criteria that you then use to score projects. This method is used to provide weights for each criterion which Contributes to the Flood Event. After processing of a digital elevation model (DEM), important secondary data were extracted, such as the slope map, the flow direction and the flow accumulation. Together with additional thematic information (Landuse and Landcover, topographic wetness index, precipitation, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Elevation, River Density, Distance from River, Distance to Road, Slope), these led to the final Flood Risk Map. Finally, according to this map, the Priority Protection Areas and Villages and the structural and nonstructural measures were demonstrated to Minimize the Impacts of Floods on residential and Agricultural areas.

Keywords: flood hazard, flood risk map, flood mitigation measures, AHP analysis

Procedia PDF Downloads 99

Authors: Nokwethaba Makhanya, Babatunde J. Abiodun, Piotr Wolski

Abstract:

Climate change possibly intensifies hydrological droughts and reduces water availability in river basins. Despite this, most research on climate change effects in southern Africa has focused exclusively on meteorological droughts. This thesis projects the potential impact of climate change on the future characteristics of hydrological droughts in the Limpopo River Basin (LRB). The study uses regional climate model (RCM) measurements (from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment, CORDEX) and a combination of hydrological simulations (using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool Plus model, SWAT+) to predict the impacts at four global warming levels (GWLs: 1.5℃, 2.0℃, 2.5℃, and 3.0℃) under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario. The SWAT+ model was calibrated and validated with a streamflow dataset observed over the basin, and the sensitivity of model parameters was investigated. The performance of the SWAT+LRB model was verified using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), Percent Bias (PBIAS), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and coefficient of determination (R²). The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) have been used to detect meteorological droughts. The Soil Water Index (SSI) has been used to define agricultural drought, while the Water Yield Drought Index (WYLDI), the Surface Run-off Index (SRI), and the Streamflow Index (SFI) have been used to characterise hydrological drought. The performance of the SWAT+ model simulations over LRB is sensitive to the parameters CN2 (initial SCS runoff curve number for moisture condition II) and ESCO (soil evaporation compensation factor). The best simulation generally performed better during the calibration period than the validation period. In calibration and validation periods, NSE is ≤ 0.8, while PBIAS is ≥ ﹣80.3%, RMSE ≥ 11.2 m³/s, and R² ≤ 0.9. The simulations project a future increase in temperature and potential evapotranspiration over the basin, but they do not project a significant future trend in precipitation and hydrological variables. However, the spatial distribution of precipitation reveals a projected increase in precipitation in the southern part of the basin and a decline in the northern part of the basin, with the region of reduced precipitation projected to increase with GWLs. A decrease in all hydrological variables is projected over most parts of the basin, especially over the eastern part of the basin. The simulations predict meteorological droughts (i.e., SPEI and SPI), agricultural droughts (i.e., SSI), and hydrological droughts (i.e., WYLDI, SRI) would become more intense and severe across the basin. SPEI-drought has a greater magnitude of increase than SPI-drought, and agricultural and hydrological droughts have a magnitude of increase between the two. As a result, this research suggests that future hydrological droughts over the LRB could be more severe than the SPI-drought projection predicts but less severe than the SPEI-drought projection. This research can be used to mitigate the effects of potential climate change on basin hydrological drought.

Keywords: climate change, CORDEX, drought, hydrological modelling, Limpopo River Basin

Procedia PDF Downloads 112

Authors: Akram Khaleghei Ghosheh Balagh, Viliam Makis, Leila Jafari

Abstract:

In this paper, we present a new maintenance model for a partially observable system subject to two failure modes, namely a catastrophic failure and a failure due to the system degradation. The system is subject to condition monitoring and the degradation process is described by a hidden Markov model. A cost-optimal Bayesian control policy is developed for maintaining the system. The control problem is formulated in the semi-Markov decision process framework. An effective computational algorithm is developed and illustrated by a numerical example.

Keywords: partially observable system, hidden Markov model, competing risks, multivariate Bayesian control

Procedia PDF Downloads 438

Authors: Fikre Belay Tekulu

Abstract:

This thesis presents the socio-economic and environmental impacts of urban sprawl in the case of Adigrat city, Tigray Region, Ethiopia. The main objective of this research is to assess major causes, trends and socio-economic and environmental impacts of the urban sprawl of Adigrat city. The study employed both quantitative and qualitative methods as questionnaires, interviews and observation used for data collection. Simple random sampling has been used to select the participants. The land use and land cover change for agricultural land and forest and grassland resource analysis is done with the aid of GIS. Urban sprawl is mainly caused by the rapid population growth, increase in the living and property cost in the core of the city, land demand and land speculation and the growth of transport and an increase in income of people and demand of more living space. The study indicates 15726.24 hectares (515.49 per cent) of new land added to the city jurisdiction from its adjacent Gantafeshum Wereda between 1986 and 2018. The population of Adigrat city increased by 9.045 per cent per year, while the city expanded 16.01 per cent per annum and the LCR was 0.0233 hectares per person between 1986 and 2018.Built-up area increased by 35.27 per cent per annum, while agricultural land, forests and grassland cover decreased by 1.68 per cent and 1.26 per cent per annum respectively in the last thirty three years. This rapid growth of urban sprawl brought social-economic and environmental change in the city that has been observed by the city residents. Therefore, the city administration should need strong, integrated, effective and efficient work, with its neighbor rural area and also done timely preparation, implementation, supervision, and evaluation of the structural plan of the city to bring out sustainable development of the city.

Keywords: cause, , trends, urban sprawl, land use land cover, GIS

Procedia PDF Downloads 116

Authors: Sean Bryner S. Rey, Eric Tanjutco

Abstract:

Modular execution strategies are performed to address the various challenges of any projects and are implemented on each project phase that covers Engineering, Procurement, Fabrication and Construction. It was until the recent years that the intent to surpass mechanical modularization approach were conceptualized to give solution to much greater demands of project components such as site location and adverse weather condition, material sourcing, construction schedule, safety risks and overall plot layout and allocation. The intent of this paper is to introduce the 3rd Generation Modular Execution with an overview of its advantages on project execution and will give emphasis on Engineering, Construction, Operation and Maintenance. Most importantly, the paper will present the key differentiator of 3rd Gen modular execution against other conventional project execution and the merits it bears for the industry.

Keywords: 3rd generation modular, process block, construction, operation & maintenance

Procedia PDF Downloads 455