Search results for: economic model

Authors: Lavdosh Lazemetaj

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The labor market in W.B. Countries presents problems and challenges, this is dictated by different risk factors. The levels of unemployment in the region are high and the rates of its reduction are a challenge. This paper presents these challenges and problems that the countries face. of the BP region. The region as a whole and the countries in their particularity are analyzed, according to the specifics, the development trends related to the labor market are looked at. Conclusions are also given that emerge from the analysis of the labor markets prior to the monitoring done by the EU and the World Bank.

Keywords: Economic Development, European Union, Economic Growth, Labor Market

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Authors: S. M. Mahbobur Rahman

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Whole building energy simulation models are widely used for predicting future energy consumption, performance diagnosis and optimum control.  Black box building energy modeling approach has been heavily studied in the past decade. The thermal response of a building can also be modeled using a network of interconnected resistors (R) and capacitors (C) at each node called R-C network. In this study, a model building, Case 600, as described in the “Standard Method of Test for the Evaluation of Building Energy Analysis Computer Program”, ASHRAE standard 140, is studied along with a 3R2C thermal network model and the ASHRAE clear sky solar radiation model. Although building an energy model involves two important parts of building component i.e., the envelope and internal mass, the effect of building internal mass is not considered in this study. All the characteristic parameters of the building envelope are evaluated as on Case 600. Finally, monthly building energy consumption from the thermal network model is compared with a simple-box energy model within reasonable accuracy. From the results, 0.6-9.4% variation of monthly energy consumption is observed because of the south-facing windows.

Keywords: ASHRAE case study, clear sky solar radiation model, energy modeling, thermal network model

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Authors: Qingyu Zhang, Helin Ma, Lili Weng, Mei Cao

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Green supply chain management has been an important organizational strategy to reduce environmental risks and improve financial performance. Firms have to adopt green supply chain practices to meet the official regulations and reduce peer pressure in China. This paper exhibits an empirical study of the drivers of green supply chain management practices and the environmental and economic performance of green supply chain management implementation in Chinese firms. While China is the fastest-growing emerging economy, it has paid a high ecological price. It is reported that China hosts 7 of the world’s 10 most polluted cities. The continued environmental deterioration and the resultant heightened regulatory control and public scrutiny have posed new operating challenges to firms conducting business in China. These challenges make the country an ideal setting to conduct the present study. A research questionnaire was developed to gather data in China. The questionnaire targeted managers and employees in Chinese companies. The data were collected in the last quarter of 2015, involving industries such as electronic & communicational equipment, textile & clothing, pharmaceutical & healthcare, and so on. This study confirms and validates that (1) both internal and external drivers play a significant role in the implementation of green supply chain management practices; (2) green purchase and investment recovery have a significant impact on firms’ environmental and economic performance; (3) with the improvement of the firms’ environmental performance, their economic performance will improve.

Keywords: economic performance, environmental performance, external driver, green supply chain management

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Authors: Erika Tatiana Ruiz, Wilson Adarme Jaimes

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This abstract presents the methodology for improving the logistics processes of agricultural production units belonging to the coffee, cocoa, and fruit sectors, starting from the fundamental concepts and detailing each of the phases to carry out the diagnosis, which will be the basis for the formulation of its action plan and implementation of the maturity model. As a result of this work, the maturity model is formulated to improve logistics processes. This model seeks to: generate a progressive model that is useful for all productive units belonging to these sectors at the national level, regardless of their initial conditions, focus on the improvement of logistics processes as a strategy that contributes to improving the competitiveness of the agricultural sector in Colombia and spread the implementation of good logistics practices in postharvest in all departments of the country through autonomous tools. This model has been built through a series of steps that allow the evaluation and improvement of the logistics dimensions or indicators. The potential improvements for each dimension provide the foundation on which to advance to the next level. Within the maturity model, a methodology is indicated for the design and execution of strategies to improve its logistics processes, taking into account the current state of each production unit.

Keywords: agroindustrial, characterization, logistics, maturity model, processes

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Authors: Hanan Al-Khalaifah, Afaf Al-Nasser

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Probiotics and prebiotics claimed to serve as effective alternatives to antibiotics in the poultry. This study aims to investigate the effect of different probiotics and prebiotics on the economic impact analysis of the use of probiotics and prebiotics in broiler feed. The study involved four broiler cycles, two during winter and two during summer. In the first two cycles (summer and winter), different types of prebiotics and probiotics were used. The probiotics were Bacillus coagulans (1 g/kg dried culture) and Lactobacillus (1 g/kg dried culture of 12 commercial strains), and prebiotics included fructo-oligosaccharides (FOS) (5 g/kg) and mannan-oligosaccharide (MOS) derived from Saccharomyces cerevisiae (5 g/kg). Based on the results obtained, the best treatment was chosen to be FOS, from which different ratios were used in the last two cycles during winter and summer. The levels of FOS chosen were 0.3, 0.5, and 0.7% of the diet. From an economic point of view, it was generally concluded that in all dietary treatments, food was consumed less in cycle 1 than in cycle 2, the total body weight gain was more in cycle 1 than cycle 2, and the average feed efficiency was less in cycle l than cycle 2. This indicates that the weather condition affected better in cycle 1. Also, there were very small differences between the dietary treatments in each cycle. In cycle 1, the best total feed consumption was for the FOS treatment, the highest total body weight gain and average feed efficiency were for B. coagulans. In cycle 2, all performance was better in FOS treatment. FOS significantly reduced the Salmonella sp. counts in the intestine, where the environment was driven towards acidity. FOS was the best on the average taste panel study of the produced meat. Accordingly, FOS prebiotic was chosen to be the best treatment to be used in cycles 3 and 4. The economic impact analysis generally revealed that there were no big differences between the treatments in all of the studied indicators, but there was a difference between the cycles.

Keywords: antibiotic, economic impact, prebiotic, probiotic, broiler

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Authors: Toby Li, Julian Zhu

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In this paper, a model based on a simplified geometry is introduced to give a very conservative collision probability prediction for the Starlink satellite in its most densely clustered region. Under the model in this paper, the probability of collision for Starlink satellite where it clustered most densely is found to be 8.484 ∗ 10^−4. It is found that the predicted collision probability increased nonlinearly with the increased safety distance set. This simple model provides evidence that the continuous development of maneuver avoidance systems is necessary for the future of the orbital safety of satellites under the harsher Lower Earth Orbit environment.

Keywords: Starlink, collision probability, debris, geometry model

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Authors: C. F. Popoola, P. Osho, S. B. Babarinde

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This study examined economic indicators as correlates of inward FDI. An exploratory research design was used to obtained annual published data on inflation rate, market size, exchange rate, political instability, human development, and infrastructure from Central Bank of Nigeria, National Bureau of Statistics, Nigerian Capital Market, Nigeria Institute of Social and Economic Research, and UNCTAD. Data generated were analyzed using Pearson correlation, analysis of variance and regression. The findings of the study revealed that market size (r = 0.852, p < 0.001), infrastructure (r = 0.264, p < 0.001), human development (r = 0.154, p < 0.01) and exchange rate ( r= 0.178, p < 0.05) correlate positively with inward FDI, while inflation rate (r = -0.88, p < 0.001), and political instability (r= -0.102, p < 0.05) correlate negatively with inward FDI. Findings also revealed that the economic indicators significantly predicted inward FDI (R2 = 0.913; F(1,19) = 29.40; p < 0.05) for Nigeria. It was concluded that exchange rate, market size, human development, and infrastructure positively related to inward FDI while the high level of inflation and political instability negatively related to inward FDI. Therefore, it was suggested that policy makers and government agencies should readdress steps and design policies that would encourage more FDI into the country.

Keywords: exchange rate, foreign direct investment, human development, inflation rate, infrastructure, market size, political instability

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Authors: Lei Lei, Hongbo Zhang, Donald J. Bergstrom, Bing Zhang, K. Y. Song, W. J. Zhang

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This paper presents a model for a modified T-junction device for microspheres generation. The numerical model is developed using a commercial software package: COMSOL Multiphysics. In order to test the accuracy of the numerical model, multiple variables, such as the flow rate of cross-flow, fluid properties, structure, and geometry of the microdevice are applied. The results from the model are compared with the experimental results in the diameter of the microsphere generated. The comparison shows a good agreement. Therefore the model is useful in further optimization of the device and feedback control of microsphere generation if any.

Keywords: CFD modeling, validation, microsphere generation, modified T-junction

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Authors: Ravindra Dastikop, G. S. Thyagaraju, U. P. Kulkarni

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Even though the number of context aware applications is increasing day by day along with the users, till today there is no generic programming paradigm for context aware applications. This situation could be remedied by design and developing the appropriate context modeling and programming paradigm for context aware applications. In this paper, we are proposing the static context model and metrics for validating the expressiveness and understandability of the model. The proposed context modeling is a way of describing a situation of user using context entities , attributes and relationships .The model which is an extended and hybrid version of ER model, ontology model and Graphical model is specifically meant for expressing and understanding the user situation in context aware environment. The model is useful for understanding context aware problems, preparing documentation and designing programs and databases. The model makes use of context entity attributes relationship (CEAR) diagram for representation of association between the context entities and attributes. We have identified a new set of graphical notations for improving the expressiveness and understandability of context from the end user perspective .

Keywords: user context, context entity, context entity attributes, situation, sensors, devices, relationships, actors, expressiveness, understandability

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Authors: Kai Liu

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Remote sensing-derived land surface temperature (LST) can provide an indication of the temporal and spatial patterns of surface evapotranspiration (ET). However, the spatial resolution achieved by existing commonly satellite products is ~1 km, which remains too coarse for ET estimations. This paper proposed a model that can disaggregate coarse resolution MODIS LST at 1 km scale to fine spatial resolutions at the scale of 250 m. Our approach attempted to weaken the impacts of soil moisture and growing statues on LST variations. The proposed model spatially disaggregates the coarse thermal data by using a non-linear model involving Bowen ratio, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and photochemical reflectance index (PRI). This LST disaggregation model was tested on two heterogeneous landscapes in central Iowa, USA and Heihe River, China, during the growing seasons. Statistical results demonstrated that our model achieved better than the two classical methods (DisTrad and TsHARP). Furthermore, using the surface energy balance model, it was observed that the estimated ETs using the disaggregated LST from our model were more accurate than those using the disaggregated LST from DisTrad and TsHARP.

Keywords: Bowen ration, downscaling, evapotranspiration, land surface temperature

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Authors: E. O. Fakoya, B. G. Abiona, W. O. Oyediran, A. M. Omoare

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This study examined the socio-economic effects of micro-credit on small scale poultry farmers’ livelihood in Ado Odo-Ota Local Government area of Ogun State. Purposive sampling method was used to select eighty (80) small scale poultry farmers that benefited in micro credit. Interview guide was used to obtain information on the respondents’ socio-economic characteristic, sources of micro-credit and the effects of micro-credit on their livelihood. The results revealed that most of the respondents (77.50 %) were males while half (40.00%) of the respondents were between the ages of 31-40 years. A high proportion (72.50%) of the respondents had formal education. The major sources of micro credit to small scale poultry farmers were cooperative society (47.50%) and personal savings (20.00%). The findings also revealed that micro-credit had positive effect on the assets and livelihoods of small scale poultry farmers’ livelihood. Results of t-test analysis showed a significant difference between the effects before and after micro-credit on small-scale poultry farmers’ Livelihood at p < 0.05. The study recommends that formal lending institution should be given necessary support by government to enable poultry farmers have access to credit facilities in the study area.

Keywords: micro-credit, effects, livelihood, poultry farmers, socio-economic, small scale

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Authors: Joaquim Rubens Fontes-Filho, Felipe Buchbinder, Marcelo Desterro

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The study aims to identify the effects of an economic recession on the compensation of executives of listed companies. Market-based and labor environment explanations have received particular attention, both to explain the reasons for a growth in this compensation and to indicate that they may increase agency problems rather than mitigate them. In this sense, labor forces, especially related to the market for executives, contribute to defining the terms of compensation packages and represent a significant external control mechanism to moderate agency problems, but may be of little effect if the executives are entrenched and concentrate enough power to have a say in his/her compensation. Based on a five-year data panel related to executive compensation in 250 listed companies in Brazil, we examine whether the economic recession in the last two years produced any impact in this compensation, controlling for the sector and level of governance of the company.

Keywords: agency problems, executive compensation, control mechanisms, corporate governance

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Authors: Abubakar Salisu Garba

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The objective of the paper is to highlight the nature of entrepreneurial activities in the Sub Sahara Africa. Five countries in the Sub Sahara African that are participating in Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) research have been studied to understand the types of entrepreneurial activities and their socio-economic implications in the region. The importance of entrepreneurial activities in boosting socio-economic development has been recognized not only in developing countries, but across the entire global economies. Some people believe that the wealth and poverty of developing countries is associated with nature and type of entrepreneurial activity. Policy makers are not only concern about the rate of business start up, but the growth and development of those starts up is of paramount importance to the development of the country’s economy. Although, the supply of entrepreneurs is essential, sometimes it does not really matters in boosting economic performance. What is more important is having high impact entrepreneurs who could make meaningful contribution to the economy. High growth oriented entrepreneurs are more stable and contribute greatly in enhancing the economic performance. When entrepreneurs are facing difficulties in sustaining and growing their businesses, it may be unlikely for entrepreneurship to reduce unemployment and poverty. Inadequate financial supports, insufficient infrastructure, lack of enforcing laws protecting the right of entrepreneurs are some of the problems making business environment difficult in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, entrepreneurial activity, job creation, poverty reduction, Sub-Saharan Africa

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Authors: Mersha Tewodros Getnet, Mengistu Ketema, Bamlaku Alemu, Girma Demilew

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The availability of forest products determines the possibilities for forest-based livelihood options. Plantation forest is a widespread economic activity in highland areas of the Amhara regional state, owing primarily to degradation and limited access to natural forests. As a result, tree plantation has become one of the rural livelihood options in the area. Therefore, given the increasing importance of smallholder plantations in highland areas of Amhara Regional States, the aim of this research was to evaluate the extent of smallholder plantations and their socio-economic impact. To address the abovementioned research, a sequential embedded mixed research design was employed. This qualitative and quantitative information was gathered from both primary and secondary sources. Primary data were collected from 385 sample households, which were chosen using a three-stage, multi-stage sampling method based on the Cochran sample size formula. Both descriptive and inferential statistics were used to analyze the data. Smallholder eucalyptus plantations in the study area were discovered to be common, and they are now part of the livelihood portfolio for meeting both household wood consumption and generating cash income. According to the PSM model's ATT results, income from selling farm forest products certainly contributes more to total household income, farm expenditure per cultivated land, and education spending than non-planter households. As a result, the government must strengthen plantation practices by prioritizing specific intervention areas while implementing measures to counteract the plantation's inequality-increasing effect through a variety of means, including progressive taxation.

Keywords: smallholder plantation, Eucalyptus, propensity score matching, average treatment effect and income

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Authors: Sibel Ecemiş Kılıç, Muhammed Aydoğan

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The rapid development of culture tourism has drawn attention to conserving cultural values especially by developing countries that would like to benefit from the economic contribution this type of tourism attracts. Tourism can have both positive and negative outcomes for historical settlements and their residents. The accommodation-purposed rehabilitation and revitalization project in “Sigacik Old City Zone” are to be discussed with spatial, economic, social and organizational dimensions. It is aimed to evaluate the relationship between the development of tourism and sustainable heritage conservation.

Keywords: Sığacık, urban conservation, sustainable tourism, Seferihisar

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Authors: Omuvwie R. Ewien

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Palm oil production in Delta State, Nigeria, is a significant economic activity. However, ensuring its sustainability is crucial to mitigate environmental impacts, promote social equity, and maintain long-term economic viability. This abstract provides an overview of palm oil production sustainability in Delta State, focusing on environmental, social, and economic aspects. In terms of environmental sustainability, the impact of palm oil plantations on deforestation and biodiversity loss is explored. The adoption of sustainable land use practices and measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, such as conserving high conservation value areas and utilizing methane capture systems, are highlighted. Social sustainability considerations encompass the inclusion and empowerment of smallholders, ensuring fair labor practices and community engagement. Supporting small-scale farmers, promoting fair working conditions, and investing in local infrastructure and services are identified as key strategies. Economic sustainability is emphasized through yield improvement, efficiency, and value addition. Enhancing productivity and profitability for farmers, promoting downstream processing and market diversification, and building economic resilience is crucial for long-term sustainability. Government policies, including regulatory frameworks and public-private collaborations, play a pivotal role in promoting sustainable palm oil production. Enabling policies and partnerships with industry stakeholders and NGOs facilitates the adoption of sustainable practices. Challenges such as illegal activities, the need to balance economic development with environmental conservation, and leveraging technology for sustainability are discussed. The abstract concludes by emphasizing the importance of stakeholders' commitment to prioritize sustainable palm oil production in Delta State, Nigeria, for a sustainable future.

Keywords: palm oil production, environmental sustainability, community development, yield improvement, future outlook

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Authors: Mohsen Yaghmoor, Sima Radmanesh, Ameneh Gholami

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Cities are the principal ground for manifestation of an information society. To create an entrepreneurial city, it is required that just and equal access to opportunities are provided for all segments of the city and technologies are intelligently employed. Furthermore, it is necessary for us to be electronically ready in all political, economic, social, cultural, and technological aspects. Also e-city creates enormous potentials and opportunities for development of the entrepreneurial city. After improvement of e-readiness for establishment of entrepreneurial e-city, potentials, and capitals of the city become productive and more suitable opportunities are offered to citizens, state sectors, and private sectors in order to become entrepreneurs. To create and develop an entrepreneurial city, we need to have readiness to detection and creation of entrepreneurial opportunities and finally exploitation of these opportunities which, in turn, lead to use of entrepreneurial events and their quality in the city. In this model, the quality of entrepreneurial events, the productivity of activities, the necessity of reducing the digital gap, positive and active attendance in information society and compatibility and aligning with the global society are emphasized. In an entrepreneurial city, citizens are not help seekers, private sector is not passive, and the government is entrepreneurial.

Keywords: e-city, e-readiness, entrepreneurial city, entrepreneurial events, technological entrepreneurship

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Authors: Woosik Jang, Seung H. Han

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The optimal partner selection is one of the most important factors to pursue the project’s success. However, in practice, there is a gaps in perception of success depending on the role of the enterprises for the projects. This frequently makes a relations between the partner evaluation results and the project’s final performances, insufficiently. To meet this challenges, this study proposes a strategic partner evaluation model considering the perception gaps between enterprises. A total 3 times of survey was performed; factor selection, perception gap analysis, and case application. After then total 8 factors are extracted from independent sample t-test and Borich model to set-up the evaluation model. Finally, through the case applications, only 16 enterprises are re-evaluated to “Good” grade among the 22 “Good” grade from existing model. On the contrary, 12 enterprises are re-evaluated to “Good” grade among the 19 “Bad” grade from existing model. Consequently, the perception gaps based evaluation model is expected to improve the decision making quality and also enhance the probability of project’s success.

Keywords: partner evaluation model, project based enterprise, decision making, perception gap, project performance

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Authors: Yanshuang Zhang, Byungho Jeong

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In many cases, there is a time lag between the consumption of inputs and the production of outputs. This time lag effect should be considered in evaluating the performance of organizations. Recently, a couple of DEA models were developed for considering time lag effect in efficiency evaluation of research activities. Multi-periods input(MpI) and Multi-periods output(MpO) models are integrated models to calculate simple efficiency considering time lag effect. However, these models can’t discriminate efficient DMUs because of the nature of basic DEA model in which efficiency scores are limited to ‘1’. That is, efficient DMUs can’t be discriminated because their efficiency scores are same. Thus, this paper suggests a super-efficiency model for efficiency evaluation under the consideration of time lag effect based on the MpO model. A case example using a long-term research project is given to compare the suggested model with the MpO model.

Keywords: DEA, super-efficiency, time lag, multi-periods input

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Authors: Adi Goldiner

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Historically, the social model of disability has played a pivotal role in bringing rights discourse into the disability debate. Against this backdrop, the paper explores the conceptual alignment between the social model’s account of disability and the nature of rights. Specifically, the paper examines the possibility that the social model conceptualizes disability in a way that aligns with the nature of rights and thus motivates the invocation of disability rights. Methodologically, the paper juxtaposes the literature on the social model of disability, primarily the work of the Union of the Physically Impaired Against Segregation in the UK and related scholarship, with theories of moral rights. By focusing on the interplay between the social model of disability and rights, the paper provides a conceptual explanation for the rise of disability rights. In addition, the paper sheds light on the nature of rights, their function and limitations, in the context of disability rights. The paper concludes that the social model’s conceptualization of disability is hospitable to rights, because it opens up the possibility that there are duties that correlate with disability rights. Under the social model, disability is a condition that can be eliminated by the removal of social, structural, and attitudinal barriers. Accordingly, the social model dispels the idea that the actions of others towards disabled people will have a marginal impact on their interests in not being disabled. Equally important, the social model refutes the idea that in order to significantly serve people's interest in not being disabled, it is necessary to cure bodily impairments, which is not always possible. As rights correlate with duties that are possible to comply with, as well as those that significantly serve the interests of the right holders, the social model’s conceptualization of disability invites the reframing of problems related to disability in terms of infringements of disability rights. A possible objection to the paper’s argument is raised, according to which the social model is at odds with the invocation of disability rights because disability rights are ineffective in realizing the social model's goal of improving the lives of disabled by eliminating disability. The paper responds to this objection by drawing a distinction between ‘moral rights,’ which, conceptually, are not subject to criticism of ineffectiveness, and ‘legal rights’ which are.

Keywords: disability rights, duties, moral rights, social model

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Authors: Yeliz Ekinci, Raife Merve Ön

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Nowadays, technological progress is one of the most important components of economic growth and the efficiency of R&D activities is particularly essential for countries. This study is an attempt to analyze the R&D efficiencies of EU countries. The indicators related to R&D efficiencies should be determined in advance in order to use DEA. For this reason a list of input and output indicators are derived from the literature review. Considering the data availability, a final list is given for the numerical analysis for future research.

Keywords: data envelopment analysis, economic growth, EU countries, R&D efficiency

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Authors: Mohammad Mahdi Paydar, Armin Cheraghalipour, Mostafa Hajiaghaei-Keshteli

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Nowadays, in advanced countries, agriculture as one of the most significant sectors of the economy, plays an important role in its political and economic independence. Due to farmers' lack of information about products' demand and lack of proper planning for harvest time, annually the considerable amount of products is corrupted. Besides, in this paper, we attempt to improve these unfavorable conditions via designing an effective supply chain network that tries to minimize total costs of agricultural products along with minimizing shortage in demand points. To validate the proposed model, a stochastic optimization approach by using a branch and bound solver of the LINGO software is utilized. Furthermore, to accumulate the data of parameters, a case study in Mazandaran province placed in the north of Iran has been applied. Finally, using ɛ-constraint approach, a Pareto front is obtained and one of its Pareto solutions as best solution is selected. Then, related results of this solution are explained. Finally, conclusions and suggestions for the future research are presented.

Keywords: perishable products, stochastic optimization, agricultural supply chain, ɛ-constraint

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Authors: Folasade Adegbaju, Olusola Arowolo, Olufisayo Onawumi

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Owolowo ile – ege garri processing industry which is a small scale cassava processing industry, located in Ilesha, Osun State was purposively selected as a case study because it is a cooperative business. This industry was established in 1991 by eight men (8) who were mostly retirees. A researcher made questionnaire was used to collect information from thirty (30) respondents: the manager, four official staffs and 25 randomly selected processors in the industry. The study found that within twelve years of the utilization of their self raised initial capital of N240, 000 naira (Two hundred and forty thousand naira) this cassava – based industry had impacted on and attracted the involvement of many more people because within the period of the study (i.e. 2007-2011) the processors had quadrupled in number (e.g. 8 to 30), the facilities (equipment) in use had increased from one machine and a frying pot to many, this translated into being able to produce large quantities of fried garri, fufu and also starch for marketing to the people in Ilesha and neighbouring cities like Ibadan, Lagos, etc. This is indicative of economic growth. The industry also became a source of employment for community members in the sense that, as at the time of study four staffs were employed to work and coordinate the industry. It was observed that despite all odds of small-scale industry and the problem of people migrating from rural to urban area, this agro-based industry still existed successfully in the community, and many of such industry can be replicated by such agricultural cooperative groups nationwide so as to further boost the productivity as well as the economy of the area and nation at large. However, government and individual still have major roles to play in ensuring the growth and development of the nation in this respect.The local agricultural cooperative groups should form regional cooperative consortium with more networking for the farmers, in order to create more jobs for the young ones and to increase agricultural productivity in the country thus resulting in a better and more sustainable economy.

Keywords: agricultural cooperative, cassava processing industry, model, small scale enterprise

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Authors: Queen Suraajini Rajendran, Sai Hung Cheung

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Statistical down scaling models are required to connect the global climate model outputs and the local weather variables for climate change impact prediction. For reliable climate change impact studies, the uncertainty associated with the model including natural variability, uncertainty in the climate model(s), down scaling model, model inadequacy and in the predicted results should be quantified appropriately. In this work, a new approach is developed by the authors for statistical classification, statistical down scaling and uncertainty assessment and is applied to Singapore rainfall. It is a robust Bayesian uncertainty analysis methodology and tools based on coupling dependent modeling error with classification and statistical down scaling models in a way that the dependency among modeling errors will impact the results of both classification and statistical down scaling model calibration and uncertainty analysis for future prediction. Singapore data are considered here and the uncertainty and prediction results are obtained. From the results obtained, directions of research for improvement are briefly presented.

Keywords: statistical downscaling, global climate model, climate change, uncertainty

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Authors: Paolo Russu

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This paper investigates the economic and ecological dynamics that emerge in Protected Areas (PAs) due to interactions between visitors and the animals that live there. The PAs contain two species whose interactions are determined by the Lotka-Volterra equations system. Visitors' decisions to visit PAs are influenced by the entrance cost required to enter the park and the chance of witnessing the species living there. Visitors have contradictory effects on the species and thus on the sustainability of the protected areas: on the one hand, an increase in the number of tourists damages the natural habitat of the regions and thus the species living there; on the other hand, it increases the total amount of entrance fees that the managing body of the PAs can use to perform defensive expenditures that protect the species from extinction. For a given set of parameter values, saddle-node bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation, homoclinic orbits, and a Bogdanov–Takens bifurcation of codimension two has been investigated. The system displays periodic doubling and chaotic solutions, as numerical examples demonstrate. Pontryagin's Maximum Principle was utilised to develop an optimal admission charge policy that maximised social gain and ecosystem conservation.

Keywords: chaos, bifurcation points, dynamical model, optimal control

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Authors: Asma Hanif, A. I. K. Butt, Shabir Ahmad, Rahim Ud Din, Mustafa Inc

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This paper is devoted to a study of the fuzzy fractional mathematical model reviewing the transmission dynamics of the infectious disease Covid-19. The proposed dynamical model consists of susceptible, exposed, symptomatic, asymptomatic, quarantine, hospitalized and recovered compartments. In this study, we deal with the fuzzy fractional model defined in Caputo’s sense. We show the positivity of state variables that all the state variables that represent different compartments of the model are positive. Using Gronwall inequality, we show that the solution of the model is bounded. Using the notion of the next-generation matrix, we find the basic reproduction number of the model. We demonstrate the local and global stability of the equilibrium point by using the concept of Castillo-Chavez and Lyapunov theory with the Lasalle invariant principle, respectively. We present the results that reveal the existence and uniqueness of the solution of the considered model through the fixed point theorem of Schauder and Banach. Using the fuzzy hybrid Laplace method, we acquire the approximate solution of the proposed model. The results are graphically presented via MATLAB-17.

Keywords: Caputo fractional derivative, existence and uniqueness, gronwall inequality, Lyapunov theory

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Authors: Zhiyuan Tang, Ju Zhang, Wenyuan Wu

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In this research, a car-following model with consideration of the status of the brake light is proposed. The numerical results show that the stability of the traffic flow is improved. The ability of the brake light to reduce car accident is also showed.

Keywords: brake light, car-following model, traffic flow, regional planning, transportation

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Authors: C. Bejrananda, Y. Lee, T. Khamkaew

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With the rise of the importance of air transportation in the 21st century, the role of economics in airport planning and decision-making has become more important to the urban structure and land value around it. Therefore, this research aims to examine the relationship between an airport and its impacts on the distribution of urban land uses and land values by applying the Alonso’s bid rent model. The New Bangkok International Airport (Suvarnabhumi International Airport) was taken as a case study. The analysis was made over three different time periods of airport development (after the airport site was proposed, during airport construction, and after the opening of the airport). The statistical results confirm that Alonso’s model can be used to explain the impacts of the new airport only for the northeast quadrant of the airport, while proximity to the airport showed the inverse relationship with the land value of all six types of land use activities through three periods of time. It indicates that the land value for commercial land use is the most sensitive to the location of the airport or has the strongest requirement for accessibility to the airport compared to the residential and manufacturing land use. Also, the bid-rent gradients of the six types of land use activities have declined dramatically through the three time periods because of the Asian Financial Crisis in 1997. Therefore, the lesson learned from this research concerns about the reliability of the data used. The major concern involves the use of different areal units for assessing land value for different time periods between zone block (1995) and grid block (2002, 2009). As a result, this affect the investigation of the overall trends of land value assessment, which are not readily apparent. In addition, the next concern is the availability of the historical data. With the lack of collecting historical data for land value assessment by the government, some of data of land values and aerial photos are not available to cover the entire study area. Finally, the different formats of using aerial photos between hard-copy (1995) and digital photo (2002, 2009) made difficult for measuring distances. Therefore, these problems also affect the accuracy of the results of the statistical analyses.

Keywords: airport development area, economic rents, spatial pattern, suvarnabhumi international airport

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Authors: Doğan Yıldız, Aydan Müşerref Erkmen

Abstract:

The controller of the octocopter is mostly based on the PID controller. For complex maneuvers, PID controllers have limited performance capability like in collision avoidance. When an octocopter needs avoidance from an obstacle, it must instantly show an agile maneuver. Also, this kind of maneuver is affected severely by the nonlinear characteristic of octocopter. When these kinds of limitations are considered, the situation is highly challenging for the PID controller. In the proposed study, these challenges are tried to minimize by using the model predictive controller (MPC) for collision avoidance with a nonlinear octocopter model. The aim is to show that MPC-based collision avoidance has the capability to deal with fast varying conditions in case of obstacle detection and diminish the nonlinear effects of octocopter with varying disturbances.

Keywords: model predictive control, nonlinear octocopter model, collision avoidance, obstacle detection

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Authors: Samuel Oluwafemi Oyamakin, Angela Unna Chukwu

Abstract:

Richrads growth equation being a generalized logistic growth equation was improved upon by introducing an allometric parameter using the hyperbolic sine function. The integral solution to this was called hyperbolic Richards growth model having transformed the solution from deterministic to a stochastic growth model. Its ability in model prediction was compared with the classical Richards growth model an approach which mimicked the natural variability of heights/diameter increment with respect to age and therefore provides a more realistic height/diameter predictions using the coefficient of determination (R2), Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Mean Square Error (MSE) results. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Shapiro-Wilk test was also used to test the behavior of the error term for possible violations. The mean function of top height/Dbh over age using the two models under study predicted closely the observed values of top height/Dbh in the hyperbolic Richards nonlinear growth models better than the classical Richards growth model.

Keywords: height, diameter at breast height, DBH, hyperbolic sine function, Pinus caribaea, Richards' growth model

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