Search results for: circular regression

Authors: Atia Alam

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Growing liberalisation and intense market competition increase firm’s risk exposure and induce corporations to use derivatives extensively as a risk management instrument, which results in decrease in firm’s risk, and increase in value. Present study contributes towards existing literature by providing an in-depth analysis regarding the effect of extent of derivative usage on firm’s risk and value by using panel data models and seemingly unrelated regression technique. New evidence is established in current literature by dividing the sample data based on firm’s Exchange Rate (ER) and Interest Rate (IR) exposure. Analysis is performed for the effect of extent of derivative usage on firm’s risk and value and its variation with respect to the ER and IR exposure. Sample data consists of 166 Pakistani firms listed on Pakistan stock exchange for the period of 2004-2010. Results show that extensive usage of derivative instruments significantly increases firm value and reduces firm’s risk. Furthermore, comprehensive analysis depicts that Pakistani corporations having higher exchange rate exposure, with respect to foreign sales, and higher interest rate exposure, on the basis of industry adjusted leverage, have higher firm value and lower risk. Findings from seemingly unrelated regression also provide robustness to results obtained through panel data analysis. Study also highlights the role of derivative usage as a risk management instrument in high and low ER and IR risk and helps practitioners in understanding how value increasing effect of extent of derivative usage varies with the intensity of firm’s risk exposure.

Keywords: extent of derivative usage, firm value, risk, Pakistan, non-financial firms

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Authors: Noor Hasmini Abdghani, Nik Kamariah Nikmat, Nor Hayati Ahmad

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Rapid growth of the internet technology led to changes in the consumer lifestyles. This involved customer buying behaviour-based internet that create new kind of buying strategy. Hence, it has summoned many of world firms including Malaysia to generate new quality strategy in preparation to face new customer buying lifestyles. Particularly, this study focused on identifying online customer segment of automobile passenger car customers. Secondly, the objective is to understand online customer’s receptiveness towards internet technologies. This study distributed 700 questionnaires whereby 582 were returned representing 83% response rate. The data were analysed using factor and regression analyses. The result from the factor analysis precipitates four online passenger car segmentations in Malaysia, which are: Segment (1)- Automobile Online shopping Preferences, Segment (2)- Automobile Online Brand Comparison, Segment (3)- Automobile Online Information Seeking and Segment (4)- Automobile Offline Shopping Preferences. In understanding the online customer’s receptiveness towards internet, the regression result shows that there is significant relationship between each of four segments of online passenger car customer with attitude towards automobile online shopping. This implies that, for online customers to have receptiveness toward internet technologies, he or she must have preferences toward online shopping or at least prefer to browse any related information online even if the actual purchase is made at the traditional store. With this proposed segmentation strategy, the firms especially the automobile firms will be able to understand their online customer behavior. At least, the proposed segmentation strategy will help the firms to strategize quality management approach for their online customers’ buying decision making.

Keywords: Automobile, Market Segmentation, Online Shopping Attitude, Quality Management Strategy

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Authors: J. K. Lee, S. L. Lee

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Due to the improvement in performance of computer hardware and the development of operating systems, a multi-tasking for several programs has become one of the basic functions to computer users. It is natural for computer users to want more functional, convenient, and visual GUI functions (Graphic User Interface). In this paper, a 3D virtual desktop system was proposed to meet users’ requirements for cloud environments such as a virtual desktop function in the Windows environment. The proposed system uses the handles of the windows to hide or restore several windows. It connects the list of task spaces using the circular double linked list to manage the handles. Each handle list is registered in the corresponding task space being executed. The 3D virtual desktop is efficient and flexible in handling the numbers of task spaces and can help users to work under more comfortable environments. Acknowledgment: This research was supported by the Basic Science Research Program through the National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) funded by the Korea government (MSIP) (NRF-2015R1D1A1A01057680).

Keywords: virtual desktop, GUI, cloud, virtualization

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Authors: Sirapat Lookrak, Anol Paisal

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Space debris has numerous manifestations, including ferro-metalize and non-ferrous. The electric field will induce negative charges to split from positive charges inside the space debris. In this research, we focus only on conducting materials. The assumption is that the electric charge density of a conducting surface is proportional to the electric field on that surface due to Gauss's Law. We are trying to find the induced charge density from an external electric field perpendicular to a conducting spherical surface. An object is a sphere on which the external electric field is not uniform. The electric field is, therefore, considered locally. The localised spherical surface is a tangent plane, so the Gaussian surface is a very small cylinder, and every point on a spherical surface has its own cylinder. The electric field from a circular electrode has been calculated in near-field and far-field approximation and shown Explanation Touchless maneuvering space debris orbit properties. The electric charge density calculation from a near-field and far-field approximation is done.

Keywords: near-field approximation, far-field approximation, localized Gauss’s law, electric charge density

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Authors: Etsuo Morishita

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In this paper, we show shallow water in a tin box as an analogous simulation tool for high-speed aerodynamics education and research. It is customary that we use a water tank to create shallow water flow. While a flow in a water tank is not necessarily uniform and is sometimes wavy, we can visualize a clear supercritical flow even when we move a body manually in stationary water in a simple shallow tin box. We can visualize a blunt shock wave around a moving circular cylinder together with a shock pattern around a diamond airfoil. Another interesting analogous experiment is a hydrodynamic shock tube with water and tea. We observe the contact surface clearly due to color difference of the two liquids those are invisible in the real gas dynamics experiment. We first revisit the similarities between high-speed aerodynamics and shallow water hydraulics. Several educational and research experiments are then introduced for engineering students. Shallow water experiments in a tin box simulate properly the high-speed flows.

Keywords: aerodynamics compressible flow, gas dynamics, hydraulics, shock wave

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Authors: Mohammad Sadegh Allahyari, Sorush Marzban

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The main aim of this study was to investigate the factors affecting farmers' attitude of the Shanderman District in Masal (Guilan Province in the north of Iran), towards the concepts of multifunctional agriculture. The statistical population consisted of all 4908 in Shanderman.The sample of the present study consisted of 209 subjects who were selected from the total population using the Bartlett et al. Table. Questionnaire as the main tool of data collection was divided in two parts. The first part of questionnaire consisted of farmers' profiles regarding individual, technical-agronomic, economic and social characteristics. The second part included items to identify the farmers’ attitudes regarding different aspects of multifunctional agriculture. The validity of the questionnaire was assessed by professors and experts. Cronbach's alpha was used to determine the reliability (α= 0.844), which is considered an acceptable reliability value. Overall, the average scores of attitudes towards multifunctional agriculture show a positive tendency towards multifunctional agriculture, considering farmers' attitudes of the Shanderman district (SD = 0.53, M = 3.81). Results also highlight a significant difference between farmers' income source levels (F = 0.049) and agricultural literature review (F = 0.022) toward farmers' attitudes considering multifunctional agriculture (p < 0.05). Pearson correlations also indicated that there is a positive relationship between positive attitudes and family size (r = 0.154), farmers' experience (r = 0.246), size of land under cultivation (r = 0.186), income (r = 0.227), and social contribution activities (r = 0.224). The results of multiple regression analyses showed that the variation in the dependent variable depended on the farmers' experience in agricultural activities and their social contribution activities. This means that the variables included in the regression analysis are estimated to explain 12 percent of the variation in the dependent variable.

Keywords: multifunctional agriculture, attitude, effective factor, sustainable agriculture

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Authors: Farid Khosravikia, Patricia Clayton

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The main objective of this study is to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of various machine learning techniques in forecasting ground-motion intensity measures given source characteristics, source-to-site distance, and local site condition. Intensity measures such as peak ground acceleration and velocity (PGA and PGV, respectively) as well as 5% damped elastic pseudospectral accelerations at different periods (PSA), are indicators of the strength of shaking at the ground surface. Estimating these variables for future earthquake events is a key step in seismic hazard assessment and potentially subsequent risk assessment of different types of structures. Typically, linear regression-based models, with pre-defined equations and coefficients, are used in ground motion prediction. However, due to the restrictions of the linear regression methods, such models may not capture more complex nonlinear behaviors that exist in the data. Thus, this study comparatively investigates potential benefits from employing other machine learning techniques as a statistical method in ground motion prediction such as Artificial Neural Network, Random Forest, and Support Vector Machine. The algorithms are adjusted to quantify event-to-event and site-to-site variability of the ground motions by implementing them as random effects in the proposed models to reduce the aleatory uncertainty. All the algorithms are trained using a selected database of 4,528 ground-motions, including 376 seismic events with magnitude 3 to 5.8, recorded over the hypocentral distance range of 4 to 500 km in Oklahoma, Kansas, and Texas since 2005. The main reason of the considered database stems from the recent increase in the seismicity rate of these states attributed to petroleum production and wastewater disposal activities, which necessities further investigation in the ground motion models developed for these states. Accuracy of the models in predicting intensity measures, generalization capability of the models for future data, as well as usability of the models are discussed in the evaluation process. The results indicate the algorithms satisfy some physically sound characteristics such as magnitude scaling distance dependency without requiring pre-defined equations or coefficients. Moreover, it is shown that, when sufficient data is available, all the alternative algorithms tend to provide more accurate estimates compared to the conventional linear regression-based method, and particularly, Random Forest outperforms the other algorithms. However, the conventional method is a better tool when limited data is available.

Keywords: artificial neural network, ground-motion models, machine learning, random forest, support vector machine

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Authors: Zerubabel Mihret

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Background: Work-related stress is a pattern of reactions to work demands unmatched by worker’s knowledge, skills, or abilities. Healthcare institutions are considered high-risk and intensive work areas for work-related stress. However, there is the nonexistence of clear and strong data about the magnitude of work-related stress on sanitation workers in hospitals in Ethiopia. The aim of this study was to determine the magnitude of work-related stress among sanitation workers in public hospitals during COVID-19 in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Methods: Institution-based cross-sectional study was conducted from October 2021 to February 2022 among 494 sanitation workers who were selected from 4 hospitals. HSE (Health and Safety Executive of UK) standard data collection tool was used, and an interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to collect the data using KOBO collect application. The collected data were cleaned and analyzed using SPSS version 20.0. Both binary and multivariable logistic regression analyses were done to identify important factors having an association with work-related stress. Variables with p-value ≤ 0.25 in the bivariate analysis were entered into the multivariable logistic regression model. A statistically significant level was declared at a p-value ≤ 0.05. Results: This study revealed that the magnitude of work-related stress among sanitation workers was 49.2% (95% CI 45-54). Significant proportions (72.7%) of sanitation workers were dissatisfied with their current job. Sex, age, experience, and chewing khat were significantly associated with work-related stress. Conclusion: Work-related stress is significantly high among sanitation workers. Sex, age, experience, and chewing khat were identified as factors associated with work-related stress. Intervention program focusing on the prevention and control of stress is desired by hospitals.

Keywords: work-related stress, sanitation workers, Likert scale, public hospitals, Ethiopia

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Authors: Lei Ye, Min Liu, Yong-Li Gao, Jun Zhang

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Purpose: The aims of the study are to investigate the status of health-promoting lifestyle and to compare the healthy lifestyle of emergency nurses in different levels of hospitals in Sichuan province, China. The investigation is mainly about the health-promoting lifestyle, including spiritual growth, health responsibility, physical activity, nutrition, interpersonal relations, stress management. Then the factors were analyzed influencing the health-promoting lifestyle of emergency nurses in hospitals of Sichuan province in order to find the relevant models to provide reference evidence for intervention. Study Design: A cross-sectional research method was adopted. Stratified cluster sampling, based on geographical location, was used to select the health facilities of 1389 emergency nurses in 54 hospitals from Sichuan province in China. Method: The 52-item, six-factor structure Health-Promoting Lifestyle Profile II (HPLP- II) instrument was used to explore participants’ self-reported health-promoting behaviors and measure the dimensions of health responsibility, physical activity, nutrition, interpersonal relations, spiritual growth, and stress management. Demographic characteristics, education, work duration, emergency nursing work duration and self-rated health status were documented. Analysis: Data were analyzed through SPSS software ver. 17.0. Frequency, percentage, mean ± standard deviation were used to describe the general information, while the Nonparametric Test was used to compare the constituent ratio of general data of different hospitals. One-way ANOVA was used to compare the scores of health-promoting lifestyle in different levels hospital. A multiple linear regression model was established. P values which were less than 0.05 determined statistical significance in all analyses. Result: The survey showed that the total score of health-promoting lifestyle of nurses at emergency departments in Sichuan Province was 120.49 ± 21.280. The relevant dimensions are ranked by scores in descending order: interpersonal relations, nutrition, health responsibility, physical activity, stress management, spiritual growth. The total scores of the three-A hospital were the highest (121.63 ± 0.724), followed by the senior class hospital (119.7 ± 1.362) and three-B hospital (117.80 ± 1.255). The difference was statistically significant (P=0.024). The general data of nurses was used as the independent variable which includes age, gender, marital status, living conditions, nursing income, hospital level, Length of Service in nursing, Length of Service in emergency, Professional Title, education background, and the average number of night shifts. The total score of health-promoting lifestyle was used as dependent variable; Multiple linear regression analysis method was adopted to establish the regression model. The regression equation F = 20.728, R2 = 0.061, P < 0.05, the age, gender, nursing income, turnover intention and status of coping stress affect the health-promoting lifestyle of nurses in emergency department, the result was statistically significant (P < 0.05 ). Conclusion: The results of the investigation indicate that it will help to develop health promoting interventions for emergency nurses in all levels of hospital in Sichuan Province through further research. Managers need to pay more attention to emergency nurses’ exercise, stress management, self-realization, and conduct intervention in nurse training programs.

Keywords: emergency nurse, health-promoting lifestyle profile II, health behaviors, lifestyle

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Authors: Lea Stein, Sabine Rösner, Alessandra Lo Giudice, Beate Ditzen, Tewes Wischmann

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For many couples bearing children is a consistent life goal; however, it cannot always be fulfilled. Undergoing infertility treatment does not guarantee pregnancies and live births. Couples have to deal with miscarriages and sometimes even discontinue infertility treatment. Significant medical predictors for the outcome of infertility treatment have yet to be fully identified. To further our understanding, a cross-sectional five-year follow-up survey was undertaken, in which 95 women and 82 men that have been treated at the Women’s Hospital of Heidelberg University participated. Binary logistic regressions, parametric and non-parametric methods were used for our sample to determine the relevance of biological (infertility diagnoses, maternal and paternal age) and lifestyle factors (smoking, drinking, over- and underweight) on the outcome of infertility treatment (clinical pregnancy, live birth, miscarriage, dropout rate). During infertility treatment, 72.6% of couples became pregnant and 69.5% were able to give birth. Suffering from miscarriages 27.5% of couples and 20.5% decided to discontinue an unsuccessful fertility treatment. The binary logistic regression models for clinical pregnancies, live births and dropouts were statistically significant for the maternal age, whereas the paternal age in addition to maternal and paternal BMI, smoking, infertility diagnoses and infections, showed no significant predicting effect on any of the outcome variables. The results confirm an effect of maternal age on infertility treatment, whereas the relevance of other medical predictors remains unclear. Further investigations should be considered to increase our knowledge of medical predictors.

Keywords: advanced maternal age, assisted reproductive technology, female factor, male factor, medical predictors, infertility treatment, reproductive medicine

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Authors: Franklin N. Mabe, Samuel A. Donkoh, Seidu Al-Hassan

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In order to increase and bridge the differences in rice yield, many farmers have resorted to adopting Farmer Innovation Systems (FISs) and Improved Agricultural Technologies (IATs). This study econometrically analysed the impacts of adoption of FISs and IATs on rice yield using multinomial endogenous switching regression (MESR). Nine-hundred and seven (907) rice farmers from Guinea Savannah Zone (GSZ), Forest Savannah Transition Zone (FSTZ) and Coastal Savannah Zone (CSZ) were used for the study. The study used both primary and secondary data. FBO advice, rice farming experience and distance from farming communities to input markets increase farmers’ adoption of only FISs. Factors that increase farmers’ probability of adopting only IATs are access to extension advice, credit, improved seeds and contract farming. Farmers located in CSZ have higher probability of adopting only IATs than their counterparts living in other agro-ecological zones. Age and access to input subsidy increase the probability of jointly adopting FISs and IATs. FISs and IATs have heterogeneous impact on rice yield with adoption of only IATs having the highest impact followed by joint adoption of FISs and IATs. It is important for stakeholders in rice subsector to champion the provision of improved rice seeds, the intensification of agricultural extension services and contract farming concept. Researchers should endeavour to researched into FISs.

Keywords: farmer innovation systems, improved agricultural technologies, multinomial endogenous switching regression, treatment effect

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Authors: Brindha Senthil Kumar, Payel Chakraborty, Senthil Kumar Nachimuthu, Arindam Maitra, Prem Nath

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Gastric cancer is predominantly caused by demographic and diet factors as compared to other cancer types. The aim of the study is to predict Early Gastric Cancer (ECG) from diet and lifestyle factors using supervised machine learning algorithms. For this study, 160 healthy individual and 80 cases were selected who had been followed for 3 years (2016-2019), at Civil Hospital, Aizawl, Mizoram. A dataset containing 11 features that are core risk factors for the gastric cancer were extracted. Supervised machine algorithms: Logistic Regression, Naive Bayes, Support Vector Machine (SVM), Multilayer perceptron, and Random Forest were used to analyze the dataset using Python Jupyter Notebook Version 3. The obtained classified results had been evaluated using metrics parameters: minimum_false_positives, brier_score, accuracy, precision, recall, F1_score, and Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curve. Data analysis results showed Naive Bayes - 88, 0.11; Random Forest - 83, 0.16; SVM - 77, 0.22; Logistic Regression - 75, 0.25 and Multilayer perceptron - 72, 0.27 with respect to accuracy and brier_score in percent. Naive Bayes algorithm out performs with very low false positive rates as well as brier_score and good accuracy. Naive Bayes algorithm classification results in predicting ECG showed very satisfactory results using only diet cum lifestyle factors which will be very helpful for the physicians to educate the patients and public, thereby mortality of gastric cancer can be reduced/avoided with this knowledge mining work.

Keywords: Early Gastric cancer, Machine Learning, Diet, Lifestyle Characteristics

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Authors: Salah R. Al Zaidee, Ali S. Mahdi

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Except for simple problems of statically determinate structures, optimum design problems in structural engineering have implicit objective functions where structural analysis and design are essential within each searching loop. With these implicit functions, the structural engineer is usually enforced to write his/her own computer code for analysis, design, and searching for optimum design among many feasible candidates and cannot take advantage of available software for structural analysis, design, and searching for the optimum solution. The meta-model is a regression model used to transform an implicit objective function into objective one and leads in turn to decouple the structural analysis and design processes from the optimum searching process. With the meta-model, well-known software for structural analysis and design can be used in sequence with optimum searching software. In this paper, the meta-model has been used to develop an explicit objective function for plane steel frames subjected to dead, live, and seismic forces. Frame topology is assumed as predefined based on architectural and functional requirements. Columns and beams sections and different connections details are the main design variables in this study. Columns and beams are grouped to reduce the number of design variables and to make the problem similar to that adopted in engineering practice. Data for the implicit objective function have been generated based on analysis and assessment for many design proposals with CSI SAP software. These data have been used later in SPSS software to develop a pure quadratic nonlinear regression model for the explicit objective function. Good correlations with a coefficient, R², in the range from 0.88 to 0.99 have been noted between the original implicit functions and the corresponding explicit functions generated with meta-model.

Keywords: meta-modal, objective function, steel frames, seismic analysis, design

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Authors: Samira Alvandi

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In the context of the circular economy, production planning aims to eliminate waste and emissions and maximize resource efficiency. Historically production planning is challenged through arrays of uncertainty and complexity arising from the interdependence and variability of products, processes, and systems. Manufacturers worldwide are facing new challenges in tackling various environmental issues such as climate change, resource depletion, and land degradation. In managing the inherited complexity and uncertainty and yet maintaining profitability, the manufacturing sector is in need of a holistic framework that supports energy efficiency and carbon emission reduction schemes. The proposed framework addresses the current challenges and integrates simulation modeling with optimization for finding optimal machine-job allocation to maximize throughput and total energy consumption while minimizing lead time. The aluminium refinery facility in western Sydney, Australia, is used as an exemplar to validate the proposed framework.

Keywords: smart production planning, simulation-optimisation, energy aware capacity planning, energy intensive industries

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Authors: Palash Bandyopadhyay

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Background and significance of the study: Crude oil and natural gas is of crucial importance due to its increasing demand in India. The demand has been increased because of change of lifestyle overtime. Since India has poor utilization of oil production capacity, constantly the import of it has been increased progressively day by day. This ultimately hit the foreign exchange reserves of India, however it negatively affect the Indian economy as well. The financial performance of crude oil and natural gas companies in India has been trimmed down year after year because of underutilization of production capacity, enhancement of demand, change in life style, and change in import bill and outflows of foreign currencies. In this background, the current study seeks to measure the financial performance of crude oil and natural gas companies of India in the post liberalization period. Keeping in view of this, this study assesses the financial performance in terms of liquidity management, solvency, efficiency, financial stability, and profitability of the companies under study. Methodology: This research work is encircled on yearly ratio data collected from Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) Prowess database for the periods between 1993-94 and 2012-13 with 20 observations using liquidity, solvency and efficiency indicators, profitability indicators and financial stability indicators of all the major crude oil and natural gas companies in India. In the course of analysis, descriptive statistics, correlation statistics, and linear regression test have been utilized. Major findings: Descriptive statistics indicate that liquidity position is satisfactory in case of three crude oil and natural gas companies (Oil and Natural Gas Companies Videsh Limited, Oil India Limited and Selan exploration and transportation Limited) out of selected companies under study but solvency position is satisfactory only for one company (Oil and Natural Gas Companies Videsh Limited). However, efficiency analysis points out that Oil and Natural Gas Companies Videsh Limited performs effectively the management of inventory, receivables, and payables, but the overall liquidity management is not well. Profitability position is very much satisfactory in case of all the companies except Tata Petrodyne Limited, but profitability management is not satisfactory for all the companies under study. Financial stability analysis shows that all the companies are more dependent on debt capital, which bears a financial risk. Correlation and regression test results illustrates that profitability is positively and negatively associated with liquidity, solvency, efficiency, and financial stability indicators. Concluding statement: Management of liquidity and profitability of crude oil and natural gas companies in India should have been improved through controlling unnecessary imports in spite of the heavy demand of crude oil and natural gas in India and proper utilization of domestic oil reserves. At the same time, Indian government has to concern about rupee depreciation and interest rates.

Keywords: financial performance, crude oil and natural gas companies, India, linear regression

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Authors: El-Ghalia Filali, Cherif Gadouche, Mohamed Tahar

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A three-dimensional numerical simulation of flow through mini and microchannels with designed roughness is conducted here. The effect of the roughness height (surface roughness), geometry, Reynolds number on the friction factor and the Nusselt number is investigated. The study is carried out by employing CFD software, CFX. Our work focuses on a water flow inside a circular mini-channel of 1 mm and microchannels of 500 and 100 μm in diameter. The speed entry varies from 0.1 m/s to 20 m/s. The general trend can be observed that bigger sizes of roughness element lead to higher flow resistance. It is found that the friction factor increases in a nonlinear fashion with the increase in obstruction height. Particularly, the effect of roughness can no longer be ignored at relative roughness height higher than 3%. A significant increase in Poiseuille number is detected for all configurations considered. The same observation can be done for Nusselt number. The transition zone between laminar and turbulent flow depends on the channel diameter.

Keywords: hydrodynamics, heat transfer, minichannel, microchannel, roughness

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Authors: Mohammad Azam

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This work is an endeavor to empirically investigate the Gross Domestic Product-Growth as mediating variable between various factors and portfolio returns using a broad sample of 522 financial and non-financial firms enlisted on Pakistan Stock Exchange between January-1993 and June-2022. The study employs the Structural Equation modeling and Ordinary Least Square regression to determine the findings before and during the Covid-19 epidemiological situation, which has not received due attention by researchers. The analysis reveals that market and investment factors are redundant, whereas size and value show significant results, whereas Gross Domestic Product-Growth performs significant mediating impact for the whole time frame. Using before Covid-19 period, the results reveal that market, value, and investment are redundant, but size, profitability, and Gross Domestic Product-Growth are significant. During the Covid-19, the statistics indicate that market and investment are redundant, though size and Gross Domestic Product-Growth are highly significant, but value and profitability are moderately significant. The Ordinary Least Square regression shows that market and investment are statistically insignificant, whereas size is highly significant but value and profitability are marginally significant. Using the Gross Domestic Product-Growth augmented model, a slight growth in R-square is observed. The size, value and profitability factors are recommended to the investors for Pakistan Stock Exchange. Conclusively, in the Pakistani market, the Gross Domestic Product-Growth indicates a feeble moderating effect between risk-premia and portfolio returns.

Keywords: asset pricing puzzle, mediating role of GDP-growth, structural equation modeling, COVID-19 pandemic, Pakistan stock exchange

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Authors: Keerti Kembhavi, M. R. Archana, V. Anjaneyappa

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Most asphalt pavement condition evaluation use rating frameworks in which asphalt pavement distress is estimated by type, extent, and severity. Rating is carried out by the pavement condition rating (PCR), which is tedious and expensive. This paper presents the development of a low-cost technique for image pavement distress analysis that permits the identification of pothole and cracks. The paper explores the application of image processing tools for the detection of potholes and cracks. Longitudinal cracking and pothole are detected using Fuzzy-C- Means (FCM) and proceeded with the Spectral Theory algorithm. The framework comprises three phases, including image acquisition, processing, and extraction of features. A digital camera (Gopro) with the holder is used to capture pavement distress images on a moving vehicle. FCM classifier and Spectral Theory algorithms are used to compute features and classify the longitudinal cracking and pothole. The Matlab2016Ra Image preparing tool kit utilizes performance analysis to identify the viability of pavement distress on selected urban stretches of Bengaluru city, India. The outcomes of image evaluation with the utilization semi-computerized image handling framework represented the features of longitudinal crack and pothole with an accuracy of about 80%. Further, the detected images are validated with the actual dimensions, and it is seen that dimension variability is about 0.46. The linear regression model y=1.171x-0.155 is obtained using the existing and experimental / image processing area. The R2 correlation square obtained from the best fit line is 0.807, which is considered in the linear regression model to be ‘large positive linear association’.

Keywords: crack detection, pothole detection, spectral clustering, fuzzy-c-means

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Authors: Emad Askar, Eldesoky Elsoaly, Mohamed Kamel, Hisham Kamel

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The objective of this article is to improve the passive vibration damping of solar array (SA) used in space structures, by the effective application of numerical optimization. A case study of a SA is used for demonstration. A finite element (FE) model was created and verified by experimental testing. Optimization was then conducted by implementing the FE model with the genetic algorithm, to find the optimal placement of aluminum circular patches, to suppress the first two bending mode shapes. The results were verified using experimental testing. Finally, a parametric study was conducted using the FE model where patch locations, material type, and shape were varied one at a time, and the results were compared with the optimal ones. The results clearly show that through the proper application of FE modeling and numerical optimization, passive vibration damping of space structures has been successfully achieved.

Keywords: damping optimization, genetic algorithm optimization, passive vibration damping, solar array vibration damping

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Authors: Sthanu Mahadev, Wen Chan, Melanie Lim

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Anisotropy dominated continuous-fiber composite materials have garnered attention in numerous mechanical and aerospace structural applications. Tailored mechanical properties in advanced composites can exhibit superiority in terms of stiffness-to-weight ratio, strength-to-weight ratio, low-density characteristics, coupled with significant improvements in fatigue resistance as opposed to metal structure counterparts. Extensive research has demonstrated their core potential as more than just mere lightweight substitutes to conventional materials. Prior work done by Mahadev and Chan focused on formulating a modified composite shell theory based prognosis methodology for investigating the structural response of thin-walled circular cylindrical shell type composite configurations under in-plane mechanical loads respectively. The prime motivation to develop this theory stemmed from its capability to generate simple yet accurate closed-form analytical results that can efficiently characterize circular composite shell construction. It showcased the development of a novel mathematical framework to analytically identify the location of the centroid for thin-walled, open cross-section, curved composite shells that were characterized by circumferential arc angle, thickness-to-mean radius ratio, and total laminate thickness. Ply stress variations for curved cylindrical shells were analytically examined under the application of centric tensile and bending loading. This work presents a cost-effective, small-platform experimental methodology by taking advantage of the full-field measurement capability of digital image correlation (DIC) for an accurate assessment of key mechanical parameters such as in-plane mechanical stresses and strains, centroid location etc. Mechanical property measurement of advanced composite materials can become challenging due to their anisotropy and complex failure mechanisms. Full-field displacement measurements are well suited for characterizing the mechanical properties of composite materials because of the complexity of their deformation. This work encompasses the fabrication of a set of curved cylindrical shell coupons, the design and development of a novel test-fixture design and an innovative experimental methodology that demonstrates the capability to very accurately predict the location of centroid in such curved composite cylindrical strips via employing a DIC based strain measurement technique. Error percentage difference between experimental centroid measurements and previously estimated analytical centroid results are observed to be in good agreement. The developed analytical modified-shell theory provides the capability to understand the fundamental behavior of thin-walled cylindrical shells and offers the potential to generate novel avenues to understand the physics of such structures at a laminate level.

Keywords: anisotropy, composites, curved cylindrical shells, digital image correlation

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Authors: Luciano Batista, Sylvia Saes, Nuno Fouto, Liam Fassam

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This paper introduces the theoretical and methodological basis of an analytical framework conceived with the purpose of bringing industrial ecology perspectives into the core of the underlying disciplines supporting analyses in studies concerned with environmental sustainability aspects beyond the product cycle in a supply chain. Given the pressing challenges faced by the food sector, the framework focuses upon waste minimization through industrial linkages in food supply chains. The combination of industrial ecology practice with basic LCA elements, the waste hierarchy model, and the spatial scale of industrial symbiosis allows the standardization of qualitative analyses and associated outcomes. Such standardization enables comparative analysis not only between different stages of a supply chain, but also between different supply chains. The analytical approach proposed contributes more coherently to the wider circular economy aspiration of optimizing the flow of goods to get the most out of raw materials and cuts wastes to a minimum.

Keywords: by-product synergy, food supply chain, industrial ecology, industrial symbiosis

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Authors: V. Churkin, M. Lopatin

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The purpose of the paper is to estimate the US small wind turbines market potential and forecast the small wind turbines sales in the US. The forecasting method is based on the application of the Bass model and the generalized Bass model of innovations diffusion under replacement purchases. In the work an exponential distribution is used for modeling of replacement purchases. Only one parameter of such distribution is determined by average lifetime of small wind turbines. The identification of the model parameters is based on nonlinear regression analysis on the basis of the annual sales statistics which has been published by the American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) since 2001 up to 2012. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) without account of price changes is 57080 (confidence interval from 49294 to 64866 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 62402 (confidence interval from 54154 to 70648 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 90,7%, while in the second - 91,8%. The effect of the wind turbines price changes on their sales was estimated using generalized Bass model. This required a price forecast. To do this, the polynomial regression function, which is based on the Berkeley Lab statistics, was used. The estimation of the US average market potential of small wind turbines (for adoption purchases) in that case is 42542 (confidence interval from 32863 to 52221 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 15 years, and 47426 (confidence interval from 36092 to 58760 at P = 0.95) under average lifetime of wind turbines 20 years. In the first case the explained variance is 95,3%, while in the second –95,3%.

Keywords: bass model, generalized bass model, replacement purchases, sales forecasting of innovations, statistics of sales of small wind turbines in the United States

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Authors: Wendu Pang, Yaxin Luo, Junhong Li, Yu Zhao, Danni Cheng, Yufang Rao, Minzi Mao, Ke Qiu, Yijun Dong, Fei Chen, Jun Liu, Jian Zou, Haiyang Wang, Wei Xu, Jianjun Ren

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We aimed to compare the prognostic prediction value of positive lymph node number (PLNN) to the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) tumor, lymph node, and metastasis (TNM) staging system for patients with hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (HPSCC). A total of 826 patients with HPSCC from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database (2004–2015) were identified and split into two independent cohorts: training (n=461) and validation (n=365). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate the prognostic effects of PLNN in patients with HPSCC. We further applied six Cox regression models to compare the survival predictive values of the PLNN and AJCC TNM staging system. PLNN showed a significant association with overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) (P < 0.001) in both univariate and multivariable analyses, and was divided into three groups (PLNN 0, PLNN 1-5, and PLNN>5). In the training cohort, multivariate analysis revealed that the increased PLNN of HPSCC gave rise to significantly poor OS and CSS after adjusting for age, sex, tumor size, and cancer stage; this trend was also verified by the validation cohort. Additionally, the survival model incorporating a composite of PLNN and TNM classification (C-index, 0.705, 0.734) performed better than the PLNN and AJCC TNM models. PLNN can serve as a powerful survival predictor for patients with HPSCC and is a surrogate supplement for cancer staging systems.

Keywords: hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma, positive lymph nodes number, prognosis, prediction models, survival predictive values

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Authors: Cristiano Giordani, Marco Diociaiuti, Cecilia Bombelli, Laura Zanetti-Polzi, Marcello Belfiore, Raoul Fioravanti, Gianfranco Macchia

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We investigated induced functional effects by evaluating Ca2+-influx in liposomes and cell viability in HT22-DIFF neurons. Only solutions rich in unstructured Prefibrillar-Oligomers (PFOs) were able, in the presence of Monosialoganglioside-GM1 (GM1), to induce Ca2+-influx and were also neurotoxic, suggesting a correlation between the two phenomena. Thus, in the presence of GM1, we investigated the protein conformation and liposome modification due to the interaction. Circular Dichroism showed that GM1 fostered the formation of β-structures and Energy Filtered-Transmission Electron Microscopy that PFOs formed “amyloid-channels” as reported for Aβ. We speculate that electrostatic forces occurring between the positive PFOs and negative GM1 drive the initial binding, while the hydrophobic profile of the flexible PFO is responsible for the subsequent pore formation. Conversely, the rigid β-structured mature/fibers (MFs) and proto-fibers (PFs) were unable to induce membrane damage and Ca2+- influx.

Keywords: amyloid proteins, neurotoxicity, lipid-rafts, GM1

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Authors: Nur Atiqah Adam, Mor Jack Ng, Bernard Chern, Kok Hian Tan

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Introduction: Gestational diabetes (GDM) is a common pregnancy complication with short and long-term health consequences for both mother and fetus. Factors such as family history of diabetes mellitus, maternal obesity, maternal age, ethnicity and parity have been reported to influence the risk of GDM. In a multi-racial country like Singapore, it is worthwhile to study the GDM prevalences of different ethnicities. We aim to investigate the influence of ethnicity on the racial prevalences of GDM in Singapore. This is important as it may help us to improve guidelines on GDM healthcare services according to significant risk factors unique to Singapore. Materials and Methods: Obstetric cohort data of 926 singleton deliveries in KK Women’s and Children’s Hospital (KKH) from 2011 to 2013 was obtained. Only patients aged 18 and above and without complicated pregnancies or chronic illnesses were targeted. Factors such as ethnicity, maternal age, parity and maternal body mass index (BMI) at booking visit were studied. A multivariable logistic regression model, adjusted for confounders, was used to determine which of these factors are significantly associated with an increased risk of GDM. Results: The overall GDM prevalence rate based on WHO 1999 criteria & at risk screening (race alone not a risk factor) was 8.86%. GDM rates were higher among women above 35 years old (15.96%), obese (15.15%) and multiparous women (10.12%). Indians had a higher GDM rate (13.0 %) compared to the Chinese (9.57%) and Malays (5.20%). However, using multiple logistic regression model, variables that are significantly related to GDM rates were maternal age (p < 0.001) and maternal BMI at booking visit (p = 0.006). Conclusion: Maternal age (p < 0.001) and maternal booking BMI (p = 0.006) are the strongest risk factors for GDM. Ethnicity per se does not seem to have a significant influence on the prevalence of GDM in Singapore (p = 0.064). Hence we should tailor guidelines on GDM healthcare services according to maternal age and booking BMI rather than ethnicity.

Keywords: ethnicity, gestational diabetes, healthcare, pregnancy

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Authors: Yahaya Abdullahi, Ben Coetzee, Linda Van Den Berg

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The study aimed at establishing the global positioning system (GPS) determined singles match characteristics that act as predictors of successful and less-successful male singles badminton players’ group classification. Twenty-two (22) male single players (aged: 23.39 ± 3.92 years; body stature: 177.11 ± 3.06cm; body mass: 83.46 ± 14.59kg) who represented 10 African countries participated in the study. Players were categorised as successful and less-successful players according to the results of five championships’ of the 2014/2015 season. GPS units (MinimaxX V4.0), Polar Heart Rate Transmitter Belts and digital video cameras were used to collect match data. GPS-related variables were corrected for match duration and independent t-tests, a cluster analysis and a binary forward stepwise logistic regression were calculated. A Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC) was used to determine the validity of the group classification model. High-intensity accelerations per second were identified as the only GPS-determined variable that showed a significant difference between groups. Furthermore, only high-intensity accelerations per second (p=0.03) and low-intensity efforts per second (p=0.04) were identified as significant predictors of group classification with 76.88% of players that could be classified back into their original groups by making use of the GPS-based logistic regression formula. The ROC showed a value of 0.87. The identification of the last-mentioned GPS-related variables for the attainment of badminton performances, emphasizes the importance of using badminton drills and conditioning techniques to not only improve players’ physical fitness levels but also their abilities to accelerate at high intensities.

Keywords: badminton, global positioning system, match analysis, inertial movement analysis, intensity, effort

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Authors: Zhuoran Shan, Li Wan, Xianchun Zhang

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With an increasing trend of regionalization and polycentricity in Chinese contemporary big cities, “sub-region life circle” turns to be an effective method on rational organization of urban function and spatial structure. By the method of questionnaire, network big data, route inversion on internet map, GIS spatial analysis and logistic regression, this article makes research on characteristic and formation mechanism of “sub-region life circle” based on human high-probability daily activity in Chinese big cities. Firstly, it shows that “sub-region life circle” has been a new general spatial sphere of residents' high-probability daily activity and mobility in China. Unlike the former analysis of the whole metropolitan or the micro community, “sub-region life circle” has its own characteristic on geographical sphere, functional element, spatial morphology and land distribution. Secondly, according to the analysis result with Binary Logistic Regression Model, the research also shows that seven factors including land-use mixed degree and bus station density impact the formation of “sub-region life circle” most, and then analyzes the index critical value of each factor. Finally, to establish a smarter “sub-region life circle”, this paper indicates that several strategies including jobs-housing fit, service cohesion and space reconstruction are the keys for its spatial organization optimization. This study expands the further understanding of cities' inner sub-region spatial structure based on human daily activity, and contributes to the theory of “life circle” in urban's meso-scale.

Keywords: sub-region life circle, characteristic, formation mechanism, human activity, spatial structure

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Authors: Suphaphon Udomluck, Pannathorn Chachvarat

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Information Communication Technology (ICT) using management is essential for effective decision making in organization. The Concerns Based Adoption Model (CBAM) was employed as the conceptual framework. The purposes of the study were to assess the situation of Information Communication Technology (ICT) using management in College of Nursing under the Praboromarajchanok Institute. The samples were multi – stage sampling of 10 colleges of nursing that participated include directors, vice directors, head of learning groups, teachers, system administrator and responsible for ICT. The total participants were 280; the instrument used were questionnaires that include 4 parts, general information, Information Communication Technology (ICT) using management, the Stage of concern Questionnaires (SoC), and the Levels of Use (LoU) ICT Questionnaires respectively. Reliability coefficients were tested; alpha coefficients were 0.967for Information Communication Technology (ICT) using management, 0.884 for SoC and 0.945 for LoU. The data were analyzed by frequency, percentage, mean, standard deviation, Pearson Product Moment Correlation and Multiple Regression. They were founded as follows: The high level overall score of Information Communication Technology (ICT) using management and issue were administration, hardware, software, and people. The overall score of the Stage of concern (SoC)ICTis at high level and the overall score of the Levels of Use (LoU) ICTis at moderate. The Information Communication Technology (ICT) using management had the positive relationship with the Stage of concern (SoC)ICTand the Levels of Use (LoU) ICT(p < .01). The results of Multiple Regression revealed that administration hardwear, software and people ware could predict SoC of ICT (18.5%) and LoU of ICT (20.8%).The factors that were significantly influenced by SoCs were people ware. The factors that were significantly influenced by LoU of ICT were administration hardware and people ware.

Keywords: information communication technology (ICT), management, the concerns-based adoption model (CBAM), stage of concern(SoC), the levels of use(LoU)

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Authors: Siti Khadijah Che Osmi, Syed Mohd Ahmad

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This paper presents a methodology to develop fragility curves for shallow tunnels so as to describe a relationship between seismic hazard and tunnel vulnerability. Emphasis is given to the influence of surrounding soil material properties because the dynamic behaviour of the tunnel mostly depends on it. Four ground properties of soils ranging from stiff to soft soils are selected. A 3D nonlinear time history analysis is used to evaluate the seismic response of the tunnel when subjected to five real earthquake ground intensities. The derived curves show the future probabilistic performance of the tunnels based on the predicted level of damage states corresponding to the peak ground acceleration. A comparison of the obtained results with the previous literature is provided to validate the reliability of the proposed fragility curves. Results show the significant role of soil properties and input motions in evaluating the seismic performance and response of shallow tunnels.

Keywords: fragility analysis, seismic performance, tunnel lining, vulnerability

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Authors: A. Biran, P. Sobhe Bidari, K. Raahemifar

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Diabetic Retinopathy (DR) is an eye disease that leads to blindness. The earliest signs of DR are the appearance of red and yellow lesions on the retina called hemorrhages and exudates. Early diagnosis of DR prevents from blindness; hence, many automated algorithms have been proposed to extract hemorrhages and exudates. In this paper, an automated algorithm is presented to extract hemorrhages and exudates separately from retinal fundus images using different image processing techniques including Circular Hough Transform (CHT), Contrast Limited Adaptive Histogram Equalization (CLAHE), Gabor filter and thresholding. Since Optic Disc is the same color as the exudates, it is first localized and detected. The presented method has been tested on fundus images from Structured Analysis of the Retina (STARE) and Digital Retinal Images for Vessel Extraction (DRIVE) databases by using MATLAB codes. The results show that this method is perfectly capable of detecting hard exudates and the highly probable soft exudates. It is also capable of detecting the hemorrhages and distinguishing them from blood vessels.

Keywords: diabetic retinopathy, fundus, CHT, exudates, hemorrhages

Procedia PDF Downloads 259