Search results for: natural disaster forecasting

Authors: Allmin Susaiyah, Aki Härmä, Milan Petković

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Automatic generation of insights from data using insight mining systems (IMS) is useful in many applications, such as personal health tracking, patient monitoring, and business process management. Existing IMS face challenges in controlling insight extraction, scaling to large databases, and generalising to unseen domains. In this work, we propose a hybrid approach consisting of rule-based and neural components for generating insights from data while overcoming the aforementioned challenges. Firstly, a rule-based data 2CNL component is used to extract statistically significant insights from data and represent them in a controlled natural language (CNL). Secondly, a BERTSum-based CNL2NL component is used to convert these CNLs into natural language texts. We improve the model using task-specific and domain-specific fine-tuning. Our approach has been evaluated using statistical techniques and standard evaluation metrics. We overcame the aforementioned challenges and observed significant improvement with domain-specific fine-tuning.

Keywords: data mining, insight mining, natural language generation, pre-trained language models

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Authors: Szu-Hua Wang, Yi-Wen Chen

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Urban ecosystems are complex coupled human-environment systems. They contain abundant natural resources for producing natural assets and attract urban assets to consume natural resources for urban development. Urban ecosystems provide several ecosystem services, including provisioning services, regulating services, cultural services, and supporting services. Rapid global climate change makes urban ecosystems and their ecosystem services encountering various natural disasters. Lots of natural disasters have occurred around the world under the constant changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events in the past two decades. In Taiwan, hydrological disasters have been paid more attention due to the potential high sensitivity of Taiwan’s cities to climate change, and it impacts. However, climate change not only causes extreme weather events directly but also affects the interactions among human, ecosystem services and their dynamic feedback processes indirectly. Therefore, this study adopts a systematic method, solar energy synthesis, based on the concept of the eco-energy analysis. The Taipei area, the most densely populated area in Taiwan, is selected as the study area. The changes of ecosystem services between 2015 and Typhoon Soudelor have been compared in order to investigate the impacts of extreme precipitation events on ecosystem services. The results show that the forest areas are the largest contributions of energy to ecosystem services in the Taipei area generally. Different soil textures of different subsystem have various upper limits of water contents or substances. The major contribution of ecosystem services of the study area is natural hazard regulation provided by the surface water resources areas. During the period of Typhoon Soudelor, the freshwater supply in the forest areas had become the main contribution. Erosion control services were the main ecosystem service affected by Typhoon Soudelor. The second and third main ecosystem services were hydrologic regulation and food supply. Due to the interactions among ecosystem services, fresh water supply, water purification, and waste treatment had been affected severely.

Keywords: ecosystem, extreme precipitation events, ecosystem services, solar energy synthesis

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Authors: Khaled M. Alhawiti

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Reading capability is a major segment of language competency. On the other hand, discovering topical writings at a fitting level for outside and second language learners is a test for educators. We address this issue utilizing natural language preparing innovation to survey reading level and streamline content. In the connection of outside and second-language learning, existing measures of reading level are not appropriate to this errand. Related work has demonstrated the profit of utilizing measurable language preparing procedures; we expand these thoughts and incorporate other potential peculiarities to measure intelligibility. In the first piece of this examination, we join characteristics from measurable language models, customary reading level measures and other language preparing apparatuses to deliver a finer technique for recognizing reading level. We examine the execution of human annotators and assess results for our finders concerning human appraisals. A key commitment is that our identifiers are trainable; with preparing and test information from the same space, our finders beat more general reading level instruments (Flesch-Kincaid and Lexile). Trainability will permit execution to be tuned to address the needs of specific gatherings or understudies.

Keywords: natural language processing, trainability, syntactic simplification tools, education

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Authors: Sudha T., Naveen C.

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Dengue is a serious public health issue that causes significant annual economic and welfare burdens on nations. However, enhanced optimization techniques and quantitative modeling approaches can predict the incidence of dengue. By advocating for a data-driven approach, public health officials can make informed decisions, thereby improving the overall effectiveness of sudden disease outbreak control efforts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are two of the U.S. Federal Government agencies from which this study uses environmental data. Based on environmental data that describe changes in temperature, precipitation, vegetation, and other factors known to affect dengue incidence, many predictive models are constructed that use different machine learning methods to estimate weekly dengue cases. The first step involves preparing the data, which includes handling outliers and missing values to make sure the data is prepared for subsequent processing and the creation of an accurate forecasting model. In the second phase, multiple feature selection procedures are applied using various machine learning models and optimization techniques. During the third phase of the research, machine learning models like the Huber Regressor, Support Vector Machine, Gradient Boosting Regressor (GBR), and Support Vector Regressor (SVR) are compared with several optimization techniques for feature selection, such as Harmony Search and Genetic Algorithm. In the fourth stage, the model's performance is evaluated using Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) as assistance. Selecting an optimization strategy with the least number of errors, lowest price, biggest productivity, or maximum potential results is the goal. In a variety of industries, including engineering, science, management, mathematics, finance, and medicine, optimization is widely employed. An effective optimization method based on harmony search and an integrated genetic algorithm is introduced for input feature selection, and it shows an important improvement in the model's predictive accuracy. The predictive models with Huber Regressor as the foundation perform the best for optimization and also prediction.

Keywords: deep learning model, dengue fever, prediction, optimization

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Authors: Srikanth Korla, Mahesh Sharnangat

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Composite materials are being widely used in Aerospace, Naval, Defence and other branches of engineering applications. Studies on natural fibers is another emerging research area as they are available in abundance, and also due to their eco-friendly in nature. India being one of the major producer of coir, there is always a scope to study the possibilities of exploring coir as reinforment, and with different combinations of other elements of the composite. In present investigation effort is made to utilize properties possessed by natural fiber and make them enable with polymer/epoxy resin. In natural fiber coconut coir is used as reinforcement fiber in epoxy resin with varying weight percentages of fiber and filler material. Titanium dioxide powder (TiO2) is used as filler material with varying weight percentage including 0%, 2% and 4% are considered for experimentation. Environmental effects on the performance of the composite plate are also studied and presented in this project work; Moisture absorption test for composite specimens is conducted using different solvents including Kerosene, Mineral Water and Saline Water, and its absorption capacity is evaluated. Analysis is carried out in different combinations of Coir as fiber and TiO2 as filler material, and the best suitable composite material considering the strength and environmental effects is identified in this work. Therefore, the significant combination of the composite material is with following composition: 2% TiO2 powder 15% of coir fibre and 83% epoxy, under unique mechanical and environmental conditions considered in the work.

Keywords: composite materials, moisture test, filler material, natural fibre composites

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Authors: Christopher Schwarz, Katrin Riegler, Erwin Zinser

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The management of outsourcing relationships between IT service providers and their customers proofs to be a critical issue that has to be stipulated by means of Service Level Agreements (SLAs). Since service requirements differ from customer to customer, SLA content and language structures vary largely, standardized SLA templates may not be used and an automated processing of SLA content is not possible. Hence, SLA management is usually a time-consuming and inefficient manual process. For overcoming these challenges, this paper presents an innovative and ITIL V3-conform approach for automated SLA design and management using controlled natural language in enterprise collaboration portals. The proposed novel concept is based on a self-developed controlled natural language that follows a subject-predicate-object approach to specify well-defined SLA content structures that act as templates for customized contracts and support automated SLA processing. The derived results eventually enable IT service providers to automate several SLA request, approval and negotiation processes by means of workflows and business rules within an enterprise collaboration portal. The illustrated prototypical realization gives evidence of the practical relevance in service-oriented scenarios as well as the high flexibility and adaptability of the presented model. Thus, the prototype enables the automated creation of well defined, customized SLA documents, providing a knowledge representation that is both human understandable and machine processable.

Keywords: automated processing, controlled natural language, knowledge representation, information technology outsourcing, service level management

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Authors: Taisiia Gorshkova

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Since the 1980s, spatial correlation models have been used more often to model regional indicators. An increasingly popular method for studying regional indicators is modeling taking into account spatial relationships between objects that are part of the same economic zone. In 2000s the new class of model – spatial vector autoregressions was developed. The main difference between standard and spatial vector autoregressions is that in the spatial VAR (SpVAR), the values of indicators at time t may depend on the values of explanatory variables at the same time t in neighboring regions and on the values of explanatory variables at time t-k in neighboring regions. Thus, VAR is a special case of SpVAR in the absence of spatial lags, and the spatial panel data model is a special case of spatial VAR in the absence of time lags. Two specifications of SpVAR were applied to Russian regional data for 2000-2017. The values of GRP and regional CPI are used as endogenous variables. The lags of GRP, CPI and the unemployment rate were used as explanatory variables. For comparison purposes, the standard VAR without spatial correlation was used as “naïve” model. In the first specification of SpVAR the unemployment rate and the values of depending variables, GRP and CPI, in neighboring regions at the same moment of time t were included in equations for GRP and CPI respectively. To account for the values of indicators in neighboring regions, the adjacency weight matrix is used, in which regions with a common sea or land border are assigned a value of 1, and the rest - 0. In the second specification the values of depending variables in neighboring regions at the moment of time t were replaced by these values in the previous time moment t-1. According to the results obtained, when inflation and GRP of neighbors are added into the model both inflation and GRP are significantly affected by their previous values, and inflation is also positively affected by an increase in unemployment in the previous period and negatively affected by an increase in GRP in the previous period, which corresponds to economic theory. GRP is not affected by either the inflation lag or the unemployment lag. When the model takes into account lagged values of GRP and inflation in neighboring regions, the results of inflation modeling are practically unchanged: all indicators except the unemployment lag are significant at a 5% significance level. For GRP, in turn, GRP lags in neighboring regions also become significant at a 5% significance level. For both spatial and “naïve” VARs the RMSE were calculated. The minimum RMSE are obtained via SpVAR with lagged explanatory variables. Thus, according to the results of the study, it can be concluded that SpVARs can accurately model both the actual values of macro indicators (particularly CPI and GRP) and the general situation in the regions

Keywords: forecasting, regional data, spatial econometrics, vector autoregression

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Authors: Emin Z. Mahmud

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Shaking table tests are planned in order to deepen the understanding of the behavior of confined masonry structures with or without openings. The tests are realized in the laboratory of the Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Seismology (IZIIS) – Skopje. The specimens were examined separately on the shaking table, with uniaxial, in-plane excitation. After testing, samples were strengthened with GFRP (Glass Fiber Reinforced Plastic) and re-tested. This paper presents the observations from a series of shaking-table tests done on a 1:1 scaled confined masonry wall model, with opening for a window – specimens CMWuS (before strengthening) and CMWS (after strengthening). Frequency and stiffness changes before and after GFRP wall strengthening are analyzed. Definition of dynamic properties of the models was the first step of the experimental testing, which enabled acquiring important information about the achieved stiffness (natural frequencies) of the model. The natural frequency was defined in the Y direction of the model by applying resonant frequency search tests. It is important to mention that both specimens CMWuS and CMWS are subjected to the same effects. The initial frequency of the undamaged model CMWuS is 18.79 Hz, while at the end of the testing, the frequency decreased to 12.96 Hz. This emphasizes the reduction of the initial stiffness of the model due to damage, especially in the masonry and tie-beam to tie-column connection. After strengthening the damaged wall, the natural frequency increases to 14.67 Hz. This highlights the beneficial effect of strengthening. After completion of dynamic testing at CMWS, the natural frequency is reduced to 10.75 Hz.

Keywords: behaviour of masonry structures, Eurocode, frequency, masonry, shaking table test, strengthening

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Authors: Kelvin Datonye Bob-Manuel

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The shipping industry has begun to seriously look at ways of reducing fossil fuel consumption so that current reserves can last longer and operate their ships in a more environmentally friendly way. The concept of Green Shipping or Sustainable Shipping with the use of alternative fuels is now becoming an important issue for ship owners, shipping lines and ship builders globally. This paper provides a critical review of the performance of biodiesel and natural gas-fuelled diesel engines for shipboard application. The emission reduction technique included the use of either neat or emulsified rapeseed methyl ester (RME) for pilot ignition and the emission of NOx, CO2 and SOx were measured at engine speed range of 500 - 1500 r/min. The NOx concentrations were compared with the regulated IMO MARPOL73/78, Annex VI, Tiers I, II, III and United States Environmental Protection Agency (US-EPA) standard. All NOx emissions met Tier I and II levels and the EPA standard for the minimum specification of category 1 engines at higher speed but none met the MARPOL Tier III limit which is for designated Emission Control Areas (ECAs). No trace of soot and SOx emission were observed.

Keywords: dual-fuel, biodiesel, natural gas, NOx, SOx, MARPOL 73/78 Annex VI. USEPA Tier 3, EURO V &VI

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Authors: Elmo Thiago Lins Cöuras Ford, Valentina Alessandra Carvalho do Vale

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Given the unquestionable need of environmental preservation, the natural fibers have been seen as a salutary alternative for production of composites in substitution to the synthetic fibers, vitreous and metallic. In this work, the behavior of a composite was analyzed done with fiber of the peel of the coconut as reinforcement and latex as head office, when submitted the source of heat. The temperature profiles were verified in the internal surfaces and it expresses of the composite as well as the temperature gradient in the same. It was also analyzed the behavior of this composite when submitted to a cold source. As consequence, in function of the answers of the system, conclusions were reached.

Keywords: natural fiber, composite, temperature, latex, gradient

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Authors: Masek A., Diakowska K., Zaborski M.

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Polymeric materials have found their use almost in every branch of industry worldwide. Most of them constitute so-called “petropolymers" obtained from crude oil. However literature information sounds a warning that its global sources are running out. Thus, it seems that one should search for polymeric materials from renewable raw materials belonging to the group of green polymers. Therefore on account of environmental protection and the issue of sustainable technologies, nowadays greater and greater achievements have been observed in the field of green technology using engineering sciences to develop composite materials. The main aim of this study was to research what is the influence of biofillers on the properties. We used biofillers like : cellulose with different length of fiber, cellulose UFC100, silica and montmorillonite. In our research, we reported on biodegradable composites exhibitingspecificity properties by melt blending of polylactide (PLA), one of the commercially available biodegradable material, and epoxidized natural rubber (ENR) containing 50 mol.%epoxy group. Blending hydrophilic natural polymers and aliphatic polyesters is of significant interest, since it could lead to the development of a new range of biodegradable polymeric materials. We research the degradation of composites on the basis epoxidized natural rubber and poly(lactide). The addition of biofillers caused far-reaching degradation processes. The greatest resistance to biodegradation showed a montmorillonite-based mixtures, the smallest inflated cellulose fibers of varying length.The final aim in the present study is to use ENR and poly(lactide) to design composite from renewable resources with controlled degradation.

Keywords: renewable resources, biopolymer, degradation, polylactide

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Authors: Serap Kaymakci, Dogan Gundogdu, M. Bugra Yagcioglu

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Erosion (soil erosion) is a phenomenon in which the soil on the slope surface is exposed to natural influences such as wind, rainfall, etc. in open areas. The most natural solution to prevent erosion is to plant surfaces exposed to erosion. However, proper ground and natural conditions must be provided in order for planting to occur. Erosion is prevented in a fast and natural way and the loss of soil is reduced mostly. Lead to allowing plants to hold onto the soil with its three-dimensional and hollow structure are as follows: The types of geomat called MacMat that is used in a case study in Turkey in order to prevent water carry over due to rainfall. The geosynthetic combined with double twisted steel wire mesh. That consists of 95% Zn–5% Al alloy coated double twisted steel wire based that is a reinforced MacMat (geosynthetic three-dimensional erosion control mat) obtained by a polypropylene consisted (mesh type 8x10-Wire diam. 2.70 mm–95% Zn–5% Al alloy coated). That is developed by the progress of the technology. When using reinforced MacMat on top clay liners, fixing pins should not be used as they will rupture the mats. Mats are simply anchored (J Type) in the top trench and, if necessary, in intermediate berm trenches. If the slope angle greater than 20°, it is necessary to use additional rebar depending soil properties also. These applications may have specific technical and installation requirements. In that project, the main purpose is erosion control after that is greening. There is a slope area around the factory which is located in Gebze, İstanbul.

Keywords: erosion, GeoMat, geosynthetic, slope

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Authors: Ivana Čavlina Tomašević, Višnjica Vučetić, Maja Telišman Prtenjak, Barbara Malečić

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The Split wildfire on the mid-Adriatic Coast in July 2017 is one of the most severe wildfires in Croatian history, given the size and unexpected fire behavior, and it is used in this research as a case study to run the Weather Research and Forecasting Spread Fire (WRF SFIRE) model. This coupled fire-atmosphere model was successfully run for the first time ever for one Croatian wildfire case. Verification of coupled simulations was possible by using the detailed reconstruction of the Split wildfire. Specifically, precise information on ignition time and location, together with mapped fire progressions and spotting within the first 30 hours of the wildfire, was used for both – to initialize simulations and to evaluate the model’s ability to simulate fire’s propagation and final fire scar. The preliminary simulations were obtained using high-resolution vegetation and topography data for the fire area, additionally interpolated to fire grid spacing at 33.3 m. The results demonstrated that the WRF SFIRE model has the ability to work with real data from Croatia and produce adequate results for forecasting fire spread. As the model in its setup has the ability to include and exclude the energy fluxes between the fire and the atmosphere, this was used to investigate possible fire-atmosphere interactions during the Split wildfire. Finally, successfully coupled simulations provided the first numerical evidence that a wildfire from the Adriatic coast region can modify the dynamical structure of the surrounding atmosphere, which agrees with observations from fire grounds. This study has demonstrated that the WRF SFIRE model has the potential for operational application in Croatia with more accurate fire predictions in the future, which could be accomplished by inserting the higher-resolution input data into the model without interpolation. Possible uses for fire management in Croatia include prediction of fire spread and intensity that may vary under changing weather conditions, available fuels and topography, planning effective and safe deployment of ground and aerial firefighting forces, preventing wildland-urban interface fires, effective planning of evacuation routes etc. In addition, the WRF SFIRE model results from this research demonstrated that the model is important for fire weather research and education purposes in order to better understand this hazardous phenomenon that occurs in Croatia.

Keywords: meteorology, agrometeorology, fire weather, wildfires, couple fire-atmosphere model

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Authors: Kylie Leonard

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Investment in artificial intelligence (AI) can be an attractive opportunity for business leaders as there are many easy-to-see benefits. These benefits include task completion rates, overall cost, and better forecasting. Business leaders are often unaware of the challenges that can accompany AI, such as data center costs, access to data, employee acceptance, and privacy concerns. In addition to the benefits and challenges of AI, it is important to practice AI ethics to ensure the safe creation of AI. AI ethics include aspects of algorithm bias, limits in transparency, and surveillance. To be a good business leader, it is critical to address all the considerations involving the challenges of AI and AI ethics.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, artificial intelligence ethics, business leaders, business concerns

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Authors: Nashwah Alnajjar

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This research paper provides an overview of Replika, an AI chatbot application that uses natural language processing technology to engage in conversations with users. The app was developed to provide users with a virtual AI friend who can converse with them on various topics, including mental health. This study explores the experiences of Replika users using quantitative research methodology. A survey was conducted with 12 participants to collect data on their demographics, usage patterns, and experiences with the Replika app. The results showed that Replika has the potential to play a role in mental health support and well-being.

Keywords: Replika, chatbot, mental health, artificial intelligence, natural language processing

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Authors: Szymon Kuczynski, Krystian Liszka, Mariusz Laciak, Andrii Oliinyk, Robert Strods, Adam Szurlej

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Despіte all glоbal ecоnоmіc shіfts and the fact that Natural Gas іs recоgnіzed wоrldwіde as the maіn and the leadіng alternatіve tо оіl prоducts іn transpоrtatіоn sectоr, there іs a huge barrіer tо swіtch passenger vehіcle segment tо Natural gas - the lack оf refuelіng іnfrastructure fоr Natural Gas Vehіcles. Whіle іnvestments іn publіc gas statіоns requіre establіshed NGV market іn оrder tо be cоst effectіve, the market іs nоt there due tо lack оf refuelіng statіоns. The key tо sоlvіng that prоblem and prоvіdіng barrіer breakіng refuelіng іnfrastructure sоlutіоn fоr Natural Gas Vehіcles (NGV) іs Hоme Fast Refuelіng Unіts. Іt оperates usіng Natural Gas (Methane), whіch іs beіng prоvіded thrоugh gas pіpelіnes at clіents hоme, and electrіcіty cоnnectіоn pоіnt. Іt enables an envіrоnmentally frіendly NGV’s hоme refuelіng just іn mіnutes. The underlyіng technоlоgy іs a patented technоlоgy оf оne stage hydraulіc cоmpressоr (іnstead оf multіstage mechanіcal cоmpressоr technоlоgy avaіlable оn the market nоw) whіch prоvіdes the pоssіbіlіty tо cоmpress lоw pressure gas frоm resіdentіal gas grіd tо 200 bar fоr іts further usage as a fuel fоr NGVs іn the mоst ecоnоmіcally effіcіent and cоnvenіent fоr custоmer way. Descrіptіоn оf wоrkіng algоrіthm: Twо hіgh pressure cylіnders wіth upper necks cоnnected tо lоw pressure gas sоurce are placed vertіcally. Іnіtіally оne оf them іs fіlled wіth lіquіd and anоther оne – wіth lоw pressure gas. Durіng the wоrkіng prоcess lіquіd іs transferred by means оf hydraulіc pump frоm оne cylіnder tо anоther and back. Wоrkіng lіquіd plays a rоle оf pіstоns іnsіde cylіnders. Mоvement оf wоrkіng lіquіd іnsіde cylіnders prоvіdes sіmultaneоus suctіоn оf a pоrtіоn оf lоw pressure gas іntо оne оf the cylіnder (where lіquіd mоves dоwn) and fоrcіng оut gas оf hіgher pressure frоm anоther cylіnder (where lіquіd mоves up) tо the fuel tank оf the vehіcle / stоrage tank. Each cycle оf fоrcіng the gas оut оf the cylіnder rіses up the pressure оf gas іn the fuel tank оf a vehіcle wіth 2 cylіnders. The prоcess іs repeated untіl the pressure оf gas іn the fuel tank reaches 200 bar. Mоbіlіty has becоme a necessіty іn peоple’s everyday lіfe, whіch led tо оіl dependence. CNG Hоme Fast Refuelіng Unіts can become a part fоr exіstіng natural gas pіpelіne іnfrastructure and becоme the largest vehіcle refuelіng іnfrastructure. Hоme Fast Refuelіng Unіts оwners wіll enjоy day-tо-day tіme savіngs and cоnvenіence - Hоme Car refuelіng іn mіnutes, mоnth-tо-mоnth fuel cоst ecоnоmy, year-tо-year іncentіves and tax deductіbles оn NG refuelіng systems as per cоuntry, reduce CО2 lоcal emіssіоns, savіng cоsts and mоney.

Keywords: CNG (compressed natural gas), CNG stations, NGVs (natural gas vehicles), natural gas

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Authors: Khedidja Bouhadef, Imene Said Kouadri, Omar Rahli

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In this paper numerical investigation is performed to analyze natural convection heat transfer characteristics within a wavy-wall enclosure filled with fluid-saturated porous medium. The bottom wall which has the wavy geometry is maintained at a constant high temperature, while the top wall is straight and is maintained at a constant lower temperature. The left and right walls of the enclosure are both straight and insulated. The governing differential equations are solved by Finite-volume approach and grid generation is used to transform the physical complex domain to a computational regular space. The aim is to examine flow field, temperature distribution and heat transfer evolutions inside the cavity when Darcy number, Rayleigh number and undulations number values are varied. The results mainly indicate that the heat transfer is rather affected by the permeability and Rayleigh number values since increasing these values enhance the Nusselt number; although the exchanges are not highly affected by the undulations number.

Keywords: grid generation, natural convection, porous medium, wavy wall enclosure

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Authors: Natural Frequency Analysis of a Porous Functionally Graded Shaft System

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The vibration characteristics of a functionally graded (FG) rotor model having porosities and micro-voids is investigated using three-dimensional finite element analysis. The FG shaft is mounted with a steel disc located at the midspan. The shaft ends are supported on isotropic bearings. The FG material is composed of a metallic (stainless-steel) and ceramic phase (zirconium oxide) as its constituent phases. The layer wise material property variation is governed by power law. Material property equations are developed for the porosity modelling. Python code is developed to assign the material properties to each layer including the effect of porosities. ANSYS commercial software is used to extract the natural frequencies and whirl frequencies for the FG shaft system. The obtained results show the influence of porosity volume fraction and power-law index, on the vibration characteristics of the ceramic-based FG shaft system.

Keywords: Finite element method, Functionally graded material, Porosity volume fraction, Power law

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Authors: Sunil Kumar

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For many years, small organic molecules derived naturally from microbes and plants have delivered a number of expedient therapeutic drug agents. The search for naturally occurring lead compounds has continued in recent years as well, with the constituents of marine flora and fauna along with those of telluric microorganisms and plants being investigated for their anti-bacterial and anti-cancer activities. It has been observed that such promising lead molecules incline to promptly generate substantial attention among scientists like synthetic organic chemists and biologists. Subsequently, the availability of a given precious natural product sample may be enriched, and it may be possible to determine a preliminary idea of structure-activity relationships to develop synthetic analogues. For instance, anti-tumor drug topotecan is a synthetic chemical compound similar in chemical structure to camptothecin which is found in extracts of Camptotheca acuminate. Similarly, researchers at AstraZeneca discovered anti-biotic pyrrolamide through a fragment-based lead generation approach from kibdelomycin, which is isolated from Staphylococcus aureuss.

Keywords: anticancer, antibiotic, lead molecule, natural product, synthetic analogues

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Authors: Jeffrey Tzu-Hao Tsai, Yi-Shan Wong

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This article proposes a cohort-age-period (CAP) model to characterize multi-population mortality processes using cohort, age, and period variables. Distinct from the factor-based Lee-Carter-type decomposition mortality model, this approach is empirically based and includes the age, period, and cohort variables into the equation system. The model not only provides a fruitful intuition for explaining multivariate mortality change rates but also has a better performance in forecasting future patterns. Using the US and the UK mortality data and performing ten-year out-of-sample tests, our approach shows smaller mean square errors in both countries compared to the models in the literature.

Keywords: longevity risk, stochastic mortality model, multivariate mortality rate, risk management

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Authors: M. Afshin, A. Sohankar, M. Dehghan Manshadi, M. R. Daneshgar, G. R. Dehghan Kamaragi

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In this paper, the influence of an upstream structure on the flow pattern within and around the wind-catcher is experimentally investigated by smoke flow visualization techniques. Wind-catchers are an important part of natural ventilation in residential buildings or public places such as shopping centers, libraries, etc. Wind-catchers might be also used in places of high urban densities; hence their potential to provide natural ventilation in this case is dependent on the presence of upstream objects. In this study, the two-sided wind-catcher model was based on a real wind-catcher observed in the city of Yazd, Iran. The present study focuses on the flow patterns inside and outside the isolated two-sided wind-catcher, and on a two-sided wind-catcher in the presence of an upstream structure. The results show that the presence of an upstream structure influences the airflow pattern force and direction. Placing a high upstream object reverses the airflow direction inside the wind-catcher.

Keywords: natural ventilation, smoke flow visualization, two-sided wind-catcher, flow patterns

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Authors: Yasir Memon

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The complexity and challenges in the offshore industry are increasing more than the past. The oil and gas industry is expanding every day by accomplishing these challenges. More challenging wells such as longer and deeper are being drilled in today’s environment. Blowout prevention phenomena hold a worthy importance in oil and gas biosphere. In recent, so many past years when the oil and gas industry was growing drilling operation were extremely dangerous. There was none technology to determine the pressure of reservoir and drilling hence was blind operation. A blowout arises when an uncontrolled reservoir pressure enters in wellbore. A potential of blowout in the oil industry is the danger for the both environment and the human life. Environmental damage, state/country regulators, and the capital investment causes in loss. There are many cases of blowout in the oil the gas industry caused damage to both human and the environment. A huge capital investment is being in used to stop happening of blowout through all over the biosphere to bring damage at the lowest level. The objective of this study is to promote safety and good resources to assure safety and environmental integrity in all operations during drilling. This study shows that human errors and management failure is the main cause of blowout therefore proper management with the wise use of precautions, prevention methods or controlling techniques can reduce the probability of blowout to a minimum level. It also discusses basic procedures, concepts and equipment involved in well control methods and various steps using at various conditions. Furthermore, another aim of this study work is to highlight management role in oil gas operations. Moreover, this study analyze the causes of Blowout of Macondo well occurred in the Gulf of Mexico on April 20, 2010, and deliver the recommendations and analysis of various aspect of well control methods and also provides the list of mistakes and compromises that British Petroleum and its partner were making during drilling and well completion methods and also the Macondo well disaster happened due to various safety and development rules violation. This case study concludes that Macondo well blowout disaster could be avoided with proper management of their personnel’s and communication between them and by following safety rules/laws it could be brought to minimum environmental damage.

Keywords: energy, environment, oil and gas industry, Macondo well accident

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Authors: Ando Leppiman, Kati Kõrbe Kaare, Ott Koppel

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The growing demand for gas has rekindled a debate on gas security of supply due to supply interruptions, increasing gas prices, transportation and distribution bottlenecks and a growing reliance on imports over longer distances. Security of supply is defined mostly as an infrastructure package to satisfy N-1 criteria. In case of Estonia, Finland, Latvia, and Lithuania all the gas infrastructure is built to supply natural gas only from one single supplier, Russia. In 2012, almost 100% of natural gas to the Eastern Baltic Region was supplied by Gazprom. under such circumstances infrastructure N-1 criteria does not guarantee security of supply. In the Eastern Baltic Region, the assessment of risk of gas supply disruption has been worked out by applying the method of risk scenarios. There are various risks to be tackled in Eastern Baltic States in terms of improving security of supply, such as single supplier risk, physical infrastructure risk, regulatory gap, fair price, and competition. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the energy security of the Eastern Baltic Region within the framework of the European Union’s policies and to make recommendations on how to better guarantee the energy security of the region.

Keywords: security of supply, supply routes for natural gas, energy balance, diversified supply options, common regulative package

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Authors: U. Narumitbowonkul, P. Keangin, P. Rattanadecho

Abstract:

Both numerical and experimental investigation of the temperature distribution and electric field in a natural rubber glove (NRG) during microwave heating are studied. A three-dimensional model of NRG and microwave oven are considered in this work. The influences of position, heating time and rotation angle of NRG on temperature distribution and electric field are presented in details. The coupled equations of electromagnetic wave propagation and heat transfer are solved using the finite element method (FEM). The numerical model is validated with an experimental study at a frequency of 2.45 GHz. The results show that the numerical results closely match the experimental results. Furthermore, it is found that the temperature distribution and electric field increases with increasing heating time. The hot spot zone appears in NRG at the tip of middle finger while the maximum temperature occurs in case of rotation angle of NRG = 60 degree. This investigation provides the essential aspects for a fundamental understanding of heat transport of NRG using microwave energy in industry.

Keywords: electric field, finite element method, microwave energy, natural rubber glove

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Authors: Tingting Chen, Shouliang Zhao

Abstract:

Compared with other regions, the construction for villages and towns in regions inhabited by minority nationality shall be deeply rooted in natural and cultural endowment in locality, and more importance shall be attached to building of characteristics. In this kind of area, landscape design is very important for its character and tradition. By empirical study in Shennongjia Area, some findings could be summarized as below. There are unique natural and cultural resources in Shennongjia Forestry District; during transformation on style and features of Tujia Village, Xiaguping, special style and features have been successfully shaped through 4 strategies: (1) highlighting Tujia Culture and architectural style in west region of Hubei Province; (2) merging with local natural environment; (3) introducing system of rural coordination architect; and (4) making great efforts to design and construct environmental embellishments with village and town symbols.

Keywords: rural coordination architect, special style and features, characteristic landscape, villages and towns in regions inhabited by minority nationality

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Authors: Barenten Suciu

Abstract:

Classical matrix calculus and Routh-Hurwitz stability conditions, applied to the snake-like motion of the conical wheel axle, lead to the conclusion that the hunting mode is inherently unstable, and its natural frequency is a complex number. In order to analytically solve such a complicated vibration model, either the inertia terms were neglected, in the model designated as geometrical, or restrictions on the creep coefficients and yawing diameter were imposed, in the so-called dynamical model. Here, an alternative solution is proposed to solve the hunting mode, based on the observation that the bullet train wheel axle is equipped with cylindrical wheels. One argues that for such wheel treads, the geometrical hunting is irrelevant, since its natural frequency becomes nil, but the dynamical hunting is significant since its natural frequency reduces to a real number. Moreover, one illustrates that the geometrical simplification of the wheel causes the stabilization of the hunting mode, since the characteristic quartic equation, derived for conical wheels, reduces to a quadratic equation of positive coefficients, for cylindrical wheels. Quite simple analytical expressions for the damping ratio and natural frequency are obtained, without applying restrictions into the model of contact. Graphs of the time-depending hunting lateral perturbation, including the maximal and inflexion points, are presented both for the critically-damped and the over-damped wheel axles.

Keywords: bullet train, creep, cylindrical wheels, damping, dynamical hunting, stability, vibration analysis

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Authors: Elena Roadhouse

Abstract:

“When it take the kitchen middens from the latest canning session out to the compost before going to bed, the orchestra is in full chorus. Night vapors and scents from the earth mingle with the fragrance of honeysuckle nearby and basil grown in the compost. They merge into the rhythmic pulse of night”. William Longgood Carl Jung did not specifically recognize scent and olfactory function as a window into the psyche. He did recognize instinct and the natural history of mankind as key to understanding and reconnecting with the Psyche. The progressive path of modern humans has brought incredible scientific and industrial advancements that have changed the human relationship with Mother Earth, the primal wisdom of mankind, and led to the loss of instinct. The olfactory bulbs are an integral part of our ancient brain and has evolved in a way that is proportional to the human separation with the instinctual self. If olfaction is a gateway to our instinct, then it is also a portal to the soul. Natural aromatics are significant and powerful instruments for supporting the mind, our emotional selves, and our bodies. This paper aims to shed light on the important role of scent in the understanding of the existence of the psyche, generational trauma, and archetypal fragrance. Personalized Natural Perfume combined with mindfulness practices can be used as an effective behavioral conditioning tool to promote the healing of transgenerational and individual trauma, the fragmented self, and the physical body.

Keywords: scentscape of the soul, psyche, individuation, epigenetics, depth psychology, carl Jung, instinct, trauma, archetypal scent, personal myth, holistic wellness, natural perfumery

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Authors: Djelloul Chafia, Demagh Rafik, Kareche Toufik

Abstract:

Human activities, made without precautions, accelerate the degradation of the soil structure and reduces its resistance. Operations, such as tunnel construction may exercise an influence more or less permanent on the grounds which surrounded them, these structures alter soil it is necessary to predict their impacts by suitable measures. This research is a numerical analysis that deals the risks and effects due to the weakening of the soil after digging two parallel vertical circular tunnels in urban areas, and suggests forecasting techniques based essentially on the organization of underground space. The simulations are performed using the finite-difference code FLAC in a two-dimensional case and with an elasto-plastic behavior of the soil.

Keywords: sol, weakening, degradation, prevention, tunnel

Procedia PDF Downloads 563

Authors: Fatemeh Khalili Varnamkhasti

Abstract:

Natural administration has outside impacts such that companies regularly respect natural input as a fetched with no clear advantage. In this manner, in case natural security can bring financial benefits, showing that natural security and financial interface are in concordance, companies will effectively fulfill their obligation to ensure the environment. Contamination is, for the most part, related to the squandering of assets, misplaced vitality, and crude materials not completely utilized. Contamination avoidance and clean innovation, as inner organizational hones, can offer assistance to play down taken toll and to develop economic aptitudes for the long run, whereas outside organizational hones (item stewardship and maintainability vision) can offer assistance to coordinated partner sees into trade operations and to define future commerce directions. Taken together, these practices can drive shareholder esteem while at the same time contributing to a more feasible world. On the off chance that the company's budgetary execution is nice, it'll draw in financial specialists to contribute and progress the company's execution. In this way, budgetary execution is additionally the determinant of the progression of a company. This can be because the monetary back gotten by the company gets to be the premise for the running of trade forms in the future. Moreover, A green picture can assist firms in pulling in more clients by influencing shopper choices and moving forward with buyer brand dependability. Numerous shoppers need to purchase items from ecologically inviting firms, in spite of the fact that there are, of course, a few who will not pay premium costs for green items.

Keywords: environmental activities, financial performanance, advantage, clients

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Authors: Mazlum Çelik, Burcu Gürkan Ercan, Ahmet Ayaz, Hilal Yakut İpekoğlu, Furkan Baltacı, Mustafa Kurtoğlu, Bilge Kalkavan, Sinem Küçükyılmaz, Hikmet Çağrı Yardımcı, Şeyma Sevgican, Cemile Gökçe Elkovan, Bilal Çayır, Mehmet Emin Düzcan

Abstract:

The earthquake research literature generally examines emotional, cognitive, and behavioral responses after an earthquake. Studies concerning the behavioral responses to earthquakes reveal that after the earthquake, people either flee in a panic or do not act according to the stereotype that they act irrationally and anti-socially and sometimes give rational and adaptive reactions. However, the rareness of research dealing with human behavior experiencing the earthquake moment makes it necessary to pay particular attention to these behavior patterns. In this direction, this study aims to examine human behavior indoors in case of rising earthquake intensity. In Turkey, located on geography in the earthquake zone, devastating earthquakes took place, such as in "Istanbul" with a magnitude of 7.4 in 1999 and in "Elazığ" with a magnitude of 6.8 in 2020. Occurred recently, the "Kahramanmaraş" earthquake affected 11 provinces, with a magnitude of 7.7 and 7.6 in 2023. In addition, there is expected to be a devastating earthquake in Istanbul, experts warn. For this reason, it is essential to understand human behavior for disaster risk. Management and pre-disaster preparedness to be effective and efficient and to take realistic measures to protect human life. Mazlum Çelik, Burcu Gürkan Ercan, Ahmet Ayaz, Hilal Yakut İpekoğlu, Furkan Baltacı, Mustafa Kurtoğlu, Bilge Kalkavan, Sinem Küçükyılmaz, Hikmet Çağrı Yardımcı, Şeyma Sevgican, Cemile Gökçe Elkovan, Bilal Çayır, Mehmet Emin Düzcan. In this study, which is currently part of a project supported by The Scientific and Technological Council of Turkey (TUBITAK), the indoor recordings during the earthquakes in Elazig on January 24, 2020, and in İzmir on October 30, 2020, are examined, and the people's behavior during the earthquake is analyzed. In this direction, video recordings taken from the YouTube archives of İzmir and Elazığ Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency (AFAD) Directorates and metropolitan municipalities are examined. The researchers have created an observation form in line with the information in the relevant literature to classify people's behavior during an earthquake. It is intended to determine the behavioral patterns by classifying according to the form and video analysis of the people heading toward the door, remaining stable, taking protective measures, turning to people, and engaging in "other" behaviors outside of these behaviors during the earthquake. A total of 60 video analyzes are carried out from Elazığ and İzmir. The descriptive statistic has been used with the SPSS 23.0 package program in the data analysis. It is found that in the event of an increase in the severity of the earthquake, unlike Elazığ, in İzmir, protective action is preferred to the act of remaining stable. In addition, it is observed that with the increase in the earthquake's intensity, women attempt to take more protective action while men head toward the door. In contrast, a rise is observed in the behavior of young people heading toward the door and taking protective actions, while there is a decrease in their behavior directing to people. These findings, unlike the literature, reveal that human behavior during earthquakes cannot be reduced to a single behavior pattern, such as drop-cover-hold-on. The results show that it is necessary to understand the behaviors of individuals during the earthquake and to develop practical policy proposals for combating earthquakes by considering sociocultural, geographical, and demographic variables.

Keywords: descriptive analysis, earthquake, human behaviour, disaster policy.

Procedia PDF Downloads 108