Search results for: flood modelling
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 2247

Search results for: flood modelling

1227 Numerical Approach for Characterization of Flow Field in Pump Intake Using Two Phase Model: Detached Eddy Simulation

Authors: Rahul Paliwal, Gulshan Maheshwari, Anant S. Jhaveri, Channamallikarjun S. Mathpati

Abstract:

Large pumping facility is the necessary requirement of the cooling water systems for power plants, process and manufacturing facilities, flood control and water or waste water treatment plant. With a large capacity of few hundred to 50,000 m3/hr, cares must be taken to ensure the uniform flow to the pump to limit vibration, flow induced cavitation and performance problems due to formation of air entrained vortex and swirl flow. Successful prediction of these phenomena requires numerical method and turbulence model to characterize the dynamics of these flows. In the past years, single phase shear stress transport (SST) Reynolds averaged Navier Stokes Models (like k-ε, k-ω and RSM) were used to predict the behavior of flow. Literature study showed that two phase model will be more accurate over single phase model. In this paper, a 3D geometries simulated using detached eddy simulation (LES) is used to predict the behavior of the fluid and the results are compared with experimental results. Effect of different grid structure and boundary condition is also studied. It is observed that two phase flow model can more accurately predict the mean flow and turbulence statistics compared to the steady SST model. These validate model will be used for further analysis of vortex structure in lab scale model to generate their frequency-plot and intensity at different location in the set-up. This study will help in minimizing the ill effect of vortex on pump performance.

Keywords: grid structure, pump intake, simulation, vibration, vortex

Procedia PDF Downloads 174
1226 Modelling Public Knowledge and Attitude towards Genetically Modified Maize in Kenya

Authors: Ezrah Kipkirui Tonui, George Otieno Orwa

Abstract:

A survey of 138 farmers was conducted in Rift valley, Kenya, in November and December 2013 in three counties (Uasin-gishu, Elgeyo-marakwet, and Tranzoia) to determine public knowledge and attitude towards genetically modified (GM) maize. Above two third (70%) of the respondents had knowledge of GM maize, mostly those educated and male. Female was found to be having low knowledge on GM maize. Public acknowledged the technology’s potential positive impacts, with more than 90% willing to adopt and more than 98% willing to buy GM seedlings at any given price. A small percentage less than 3% were of a negative opinion about willing to buy and adopt GM seeds. We conclude that GM technology has a role to play in food security in Kenya. However, the public needs more information about the technology, which can be provided through established sources of information and training. Finally, public knowledge and attitude on GM maize should be studied on a regular basis, and the survey population broadened to 47 counties.

Keywords: public, knowledge, attitudes, GM maize, Kenya

Procedia PDF Downloads 307
1225 Oneness of Scriptures and Oneness of God

Authors: Shyam Sunder Gupta

Abstract:

GOD is an infinite source of knowledge. From time to time, as per the need of mankind, GOD keeps revealing, some small, selected part of HIS knowledge as WORDS, to a chosen entity whose responsibility is to function as Messenger and share WORDS, in the form of verses, with common masses. GOD has confirmed that Messenger may not understand every WORD revealed to him, and HE directs Messenger to learn from persons who have knowledge of WORDS revealed in earlier times, as some revealed content is identical and some different by design. In due course of time, Verses, as communicated orally, are collected, and edited by an individual in a planned manner or by a group of individuals and get edited unintentionally and converted in the form of Scripture. Whatever gets collected, depending on the knowledge of the Editor(s), some errors, scientific and other forms, get into Scripture. In the present world, there are three major religions: Christianity, Islam and Hinduism, accounting for more than two-thirds of the world’s population. Each of the religions has its own Scripture, namely the Bible, Quran, and Veda. Since the source of WORDS for each of these Scriptures is the same, there is ONENESS of all Scriptures. There are amazing similarities between the events described, like the flood during the time of Noah and King Satyavara. The description of the creation of man and woman is identical. Description of Last Day, categorization of human beings, identical names, etc., have remarkable similarities. Ram, the hero of Ramayana, is a common name in Hinduism and two of Jesus’ ancestors’ names were Ram and many names in the Bible are derived from Ram. Attributes of GOD are common in all Scriptures, namely, GOD is Eternal, Unborn, Immortal, Creator of Universe(s) and everything that exists within the Universe, Omnipotent, Omnipresent, Omniscient, Subtlest of all, Unchangeable, Unique, Always Works, Source of Eternal Bliss, etc. There is the Oneness of GOD.

Keywords: GOD, scriptures, oneness, WORDS, Jesus, Ram

Procedia PDF Downloads 60
1224 An Approach to Analyze Testing of Nano On-Chip Networks

Authors: Farnaz Fotovvatikhah, Javad Akbari

Abstract:

Test time of a test architecture is an important factor which depends on the architecture's delay and test patterns. Here a new architecture to store the test results based on network on chip is presented. In addition, simple analytical model is proposed to calculate link test time for built in self-tester (BIST) and external tester (Ext) in multiprocessor systems. The results extracted from the model are verified using FPGA implementation and experimental measurements. Systems consisting 16, 25, and 36 processors are implemented and simulated and test time is calculated. In addition, BIST and Ext are compared in terms of test time at different conditions such as at different number of test patterns and nodes. Using the model the maximum frequency of testing could be calculated and the test structure could be optimized for high speed testing.

Keywords: test, nano on-chip network, JTAG, modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 486
1223 Modelling and Simulation of Diffusion Effect on the Glycol Dehydration Unit of a Natural Gas Plant

Authors: M. Wigwe, J. G Akpa, E. N Wami

Abstract:

Mathematical models of the absorber of a glycol dehydration facility was developed using the principles of conservation of mass and energy. Models which predict variation of the water content of gas in mole fraction, variation of gas and liquid temperatures across the parking height were developed. These models contain contributions from bulk and diffusion flows. The effect of diffusion on the process occurring in the absorber was studied in this work. The models were validated using the initial conditions in the plant data from Company W TEG unit in Nigeria. The results obtained showed that the effect of diffusion was noticed between z=0 and z=0.004 m. A deviation from plant data of 0% was observed for the gas water content at a residence time of 20 seconds, at z=0.004 m. Similarly, deviations of 1.584% and 2.844% were observed for the gas and TEG temperatures.

Keywords: separations, absorption, simulation, dehydration, water content, triethylene glycol

Procedia PDF Downloads 497
1222 Climate Change in Awash River Basin of Ethiopia: A Projection Study Using Global and Regional Climate Model Simulations

Authors: Mahtsente Tadese, Lalit Kumar, Richard Koech

Abstract:

The aim of this study was to project and analyze climate change in the Awash River Basin (ARB) using bias-corrected Global and Regional Climate Model simulations. The analysis included a baseline period from 1986-2005 and two future scenarios (the 2050s and 2070s) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). Bias correction methods were evaluated using graphical and statistical methods. Following the evaluation of bias correction methods, the Distribution Mapping (DM) and Power Transformation (PT) were used for temperature and precipitation projection, respectively. The 2050s and 2070s RCP4 simulations showed an increase in precipitation during half of the months with 32 and 10%, respectively. Moreover, the 2050s and 2070s RCP8.5 simulation indicated a decrease in precipitation with 18 and 26%, respectively. The 2050s and 2070s RCP8.5 simulation indicated a significant decrease in precipitation in four of the months (February/March to May) with the highest decreasing rate of 34.7%. The 2050s and 2070s RCP4.5 simulation showed an increase of 0.48-2.6 °C in maximum temperature. In the case of RCP8.5, the increase rate reached 3.4 °C and 4.1 °C in the 2050s and 2070s, respectively. The changes in precipitation and temperature might worsen the water stress, flood, and drought in ARB. Moreover, the critical focus should be given to mitigation strategies and management options to reduce the negative impact. The findings of this study provide valuable information on future precipitation and temperature change in ARB, which will help in the planning and design of sustainable mitigation approaches in the basin.

Keywords: variability, climate change, Awash River Basin, precipitation

Procedia PDF Downloads 172
1221 Ficus Carica as Adsorbent for Removal of Phenol from Aqueous Solutions: Modelling and Optimization

Authors: Tizi Hayet, Berrama Tarek, Bounif Nadia

Abstract:

Phenol and its derivatives are organic compounds utilized in the chemical industry. They are introduced into the environment by accidental spills and illegal release of industrial and municipal wastewater. Phenols are organic intermediaries that considered as potential pollutants. Adsorption is one of the purification and separation techniques used in this area. Algeria produces annually 131000 tones of fig; therefore, a large amount of fig leaves is generated, and the conversion of this waste into adsorbent allows the valorization of agricultural residue. The main purpose of this present work is to describe an application of the statistical method for modeling and optimization of the conditions of the phenol (Ph) adsorption from agricultural by-product locally available (fig leaves). The best experimental performance of Ph elimination on the adsorbent was obtained with: Adsorbent concentration (X2) = 0.2 g L-1; Initial concentration (X3) = 150 mg L-1; Speed agitation (X1) = 300 rpm.

Keywords: low-cost adsorbents, fig leaves, full factorial design, phenol, biosorption

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1220 A Game-Theory-Based Price-Optimization Algorithm for the Simulation of Markets Using Agent-Based Modelling

Authors: Juan Manuel Sanchez-Cartas, Gonzalo Leon

Abstract:

A price competition algorithm for ABMs based on game theory principles is proposed to deal with the simulation of theoretical market models. The algorithm is applied to the classical Hotelling’s model and to a two-sided market model to show it leads to the optimal behavior predicted by theoretical models. However, when theoretical models fail to predict the equilibrium, the algorithm is capable of reaching a feasible outcome. Results highlight that the algorithm can be implemented in other simulation models to guarantee rational users and endogenous optimal behaviors. Also, it can be applied as a tool of verification given that is theoretically based.

Keywords: agent-based models, algorithmic game theory, multi-sided markets, price optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 453
1219 Liquid-Liquid Equilibrium Study in Solvent Extraction of o-Cresol from Coal Tar

Authors: Dewi Selvia Fardhyanti, Astrilia Damayanti

Abstract:

Coal tar is a liquid by-product of the process of coal gasification and carbonation, also in some industries such as steel, power plant, cement, and others. This liquid oil mixture contains various kinds of useful compounds such as aromatic compounds and phenolic compounds. These compounds are widely used as raw material for insecticides, dyes, medicines, perfumes, coloring matters, and many others. This research investigates thermodynamic modelling of liquid-liquid equilibria (LLE) in solvent extraction of o-Cresol from the coal tar. The equilibria are modeled by ternary components of Wohl, Van Laar, and Three-Suffix Margules models. The values of the parameters involved are obtained by curve-fitting to the experimental data. Based on the comparison between calculated and experimental data, it turns out that among the three models studied, the Three-Suffix Margules seems to be the best to predict the LLE of o-Cresol for those system.

Keywords: coal tar, o-Cresol, Wohl, Van Laar, three-suffix margules

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1218 Winning the “Culture War”: Greater Hungary and the American Confederacy as Sites of Nostalgia, Mythology, and Problem-Making for the Far Right in the US and Hungary

Authors: Grace Rademacher

Abstract:

Trauma” of the Kingdom of Hungary and the “Lost Cause” of the American Confederacy. Applying Nicole Maurantonio’s articulation of “confederate exceptionalism” and Svetlana Boym’s definition of “restorative nostalgia”, this article argues that, via memorialization and public discourse, both far right bodies flood their constituencies with narratives of nostalgia and martyrdom to sow existential anxieties about past and prophetic victimhood, all under the guise of protecting or restoring heritage. Linking this practice to gamification and conspiracy theorizing and following the work of Patrick Jagoda, this article identifies such industries of nostalgia as means by which the far right in both nations can partake in the “immanent and improvisational process of problem making.” Reified through monuments and references to the Trianon Trauma and the American confederacy, political actors “problem make” by alleging that they are victims of the West or the Left, subject to the cruel whims of liberalism and denial of historical legitimacy. In both nations, relying on their victimhood, pundits and politicians can appeal to white supremacists and distract citizens from legitimate active conflicts, such as wars or democratic rollbacks, redirecting them to fictional, mythical attacks on Hungarian or American society and civilization. This article will examine memorials and monuments as “lieux de memoire” and identify the purposeful similarities between the discourse of public figures and politicians such as María Schmidt, János Lázár, and Viktor Orbán, with that of Donald Trump and pundits such as Tucker Carlson.

Keywords: nationalism, political memory, white supremacy, trianon

Procedia PDF Downloads 75
1217 Hydrological Modeling of Watersheds Using the Only Corresponding Competitor Method: The Case of M’Zab Basin, South East Algeria

Authors: Oulad Naoui Noureddine, Cherif ELAmine, Djehiche Abdelkader

Abstract:

Water resources management includes several disciplines; the modeling of rainfall-runoff relationship is the most important discipline to prevent natural risks. There are several models to study rainfall-runoff relationship in watersheds. However, the majority of these models are not applicable in all basins of the world.  In this study, a new stochastic method called The Only Corresponding Competitor method (OCC) was used for the hydrological modeling of M’ZAB   Watershed (South East of Algeria) to adapt a few empirical models for any hydrological regime.  The results obtained allow to authorize a certain number of visions, in which it would be interesting to experiment with hydrological models that improve collectively or separately the data of a catchment by the OCC method.

Keywords: modelling, optimization, rainfall-runoff relationship, empirical model, OCC

Procedia PDF Downloads 262
1216 Investigation on the Behavior of Conventional Reinforced Coupling Beams

Authors: Akash K. Walunj, Dipendu Bhunia, Samarth Gupta, Prabhat Gupta

Abstract:

Coupled shear walls consist of two shear walls connected intermittently by beams along the height. The behavior of coupled shear walls is mainly governed by the coupling beams. The coupling beams are designed for ductile inelastic behavior in order to dissipate energy. The base of the shear walls may be designed for elastic or ductile inelastic behavior. The amount of energy dissipation depends on the yield moment capacity and plastic rotation capacity of the coupling beams. In this paper, an analytical model of coupling beam was developed to calculate the rotations and moment capacities of coupling beam with conventional reinforcement.

Keywords: design studies, computational model(s), case study/studies, modelling, coupling beam

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1215 Evaluation of the Beach Erosion Process in Varadero, Matanzas, Cuba: Effects of Different Hurricane Trajectories

Authors: Ana Gabriela Diaz, Luis Fermín Córdova, Jr., Roberto Lamazares

Abstract:

The island of Cuba, the largest of the Greater Antilles, is located in the tropical North Atlantic. It is annually affected by numerous weather events, which have caused severe damage to our coastal areas. In the same way that many other coastlines around the world, the beautiful beaches of the Hicacos Peninsula also suffer from erosion. This leads to a structural regression of the coastline. If measures are not taken, the hotels will be exposed to the advance of the sea, and it will be a serious problem for the economy. With the aim of studying the intensity of this type of activity, specialists of group of coastal and marine engineering from CIH, in the framework of the research conducted within the project MEGACOSTAS 2, provide their research to simulate extreme events and assess their impact in coastal areas, mainly regarding the definition of flood volumes and morphodynamic changes in sandy beaches. The main objective of this work is the evaluation of the process of Varadero beach erosion (the coastal sector has an important impact in the country's economy) on the Hicacos Peninsula for different paths of hurricanes. The mathematical model XBeach, which was integrated into the Coastal engineering system introduced by the project of MEGACOSTA 2 to determine the area and the more critical profiles for the path of hurricanes under study, was applied. The results of this project have shown that Center area is the greatest dynamic area in the simulation of the three paths of hurricanes under study, showing high erosion volumes and the greatest average length of regression of the coastline, from 15- 22 m.

Keywords: beach, erosion, mathematical model, coastal areas

Procedia PDF Downloads 226
1214 Modeling Sediment Transports under Extreme Storm Situation along Persian Gulf North Coast

Authors: Majid Samiee Zenoozian

Abstract:

The Persian Gulf is a bordering sea with an normal depth of 35 m and a supreme depth of 100 m near its narrow appearance. Its lengthen bathymetric axis divorces two main geological shires — the steady Arabian Foreland and the unbalanced Iranian Fold Belt — which are imitated in the conflicting shore and bathymetric morphologies of Arabia and Iran. The sediments were experimented with from 72 offshore positions through an oceanographic cruise in the winter of 2018. Throughout the observation era, several storms and river discharge actions happened, as well as the major flood on record since 1982. Suspended-sediment focus at all three sites varied in reaction to both wave resuspension and advection of river-derived sediments. We used hydrological models to evaluation and associate the wave height and inundation distance required to carriage the rocks inland. Our results establish that no known or possible storm happening on the Makran coast is accomplished of detaching and transporting the boulders. The fluid mud consequently is conveyed seaward due to gravitational forcing. The measured sediment focus and velocity profiles on the shelf provide a strong indication to provision this assumption. The sediment model is joined with a 3D hydrodynamic module in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Code (EFDC) model that offers data on estuarine rotation and salinity transport under normal temperature conditions. 3-D sediment transport from model simulations specify dynamic sediment resuspension and transport near zones of highly industrious oyster beds.

Keywords: sediment transport, storm, coast, fluid dynamics

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1213 Heat Transfer Characteristics of Film Condensation

Authors: M. Mosaad, J. H. Almutairi, A. S. Almutairi

Abstract:

In this paper, saturated-vapour film condensation on a vertical wall with the backside cooled by forced convection is analyzed as a conjugate problem. In the analysis, the temperature and heat flux at the wall sides are assumed unknown and determined from the solution. The model is presented in a dimensionless form to take a broad view of the solution. The dimensionless variables controlling this coupled heat transfer process are discovered from the analysis. These variables explain the relative impact of the interactive heat transfer mechanisms of forced convection and film condensation. The study shows that the conjugate treatment of film condensation process yields results different from that predicted by a non-conjugate Nusselt-type solution, wherein the effect of the cooling fluid is neglected.

Keywords: film condensation, forced convection, coupled heat transfer, analytical modelling

Procedia PDF Downloads 319
1212 Simulation of Optimal Runoff Hydrograph Using Ensemble of Radar Rainfall and Blending of Runoffs Model

Authors: Myungjin Lee, Daegun Han, Jongsung Kim, Soojun Kim, Hung Soo Kim

Abstract:

Recently, the localized heavy rainfall and typhoons are frequently occurred due to the climate change and the damage is becoming bigger. Therefore, we may need a more accurate prediction of the rainfall and runoff. However, the gauge rainfall has the limited accuracy in space. Radar rainfall is better than gauge rainfall for the explanation of the spatial variability of rainfall but it is mostly underestimated with the uncertainty involved. Therefore, the ensemble of radar rainfall was simulated using error structure to overcome the uncertainty and gauge rainfall. The simulated ensemble was used as the input data of the rainfall-runoff models for obtaining the ensemble of runoff hydrographs. The previous studies discussed about the accuracy of the rainfall-runoff model. Even if the same input data such as rainfall is used for the runoff analysis using the models in the same basin, the models can have different results because of the uncertainty involved in the models. Therefore, we used two models of the SSARR model which is the lumped model, and the Vflo model which is a distributed model and tried to simulate the optimum runoff considering the uncertainty of each rainfall-runoff model. The study basin is located in Han river basin and we obtained one integrated runoff hydrograph which is an optimum runoff hydrograph using the blending methods such as Multi-Model Super Ensemble (MMSE), Simple Model Average (SMA), Mean Square Error (MSE). From this study, we could confirm the accuracy of rainfall and rainfall-runoff model using ensemble scenario and various rainfall-runoff model and we can use this result to study flood control measure due to climate change. Acknowledgements: This work is supported by the Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement(KAIA) grant funded by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (Grant 18AWMP-B083066-05).

Keywords: radar rainfall ensemble, rainfall-runoff models, blending method, optimum runoff hydrograph

Procedia PDF Downloads 279
1211 Modelling Export Dynamics in the CSEE Countries Using GVAR Model

Authors: S. Jakšić, B. Žmuk

Abstract:

The paper investigates the key factors of export dynamics for a set of Central and Southeast European (CSEE) countries in the context of current economic and financial crisis. In order to model the export dynamics a Global Vector Auto Regressive (GVAR) model is defined. As opposed to models which model each country separately, the GVAR combines all country models in a global model which enables obtaining important information on spill-over effects in the context of globalization and rising international linkages. The results of the study indicate that for most of the CSEE countries, exports are mainly driven by domestic shocks, both in the short run and in the long run. This study is the first application of the GVAR model to studying the export dynamics in the CSEE countries and therefore the results of the study present an important empirical contribution.

Keywords: export, GFEVD, global VAR, international trade, weak exogeneity

Procedia PDF Downloads 300
1210 Systemic Approach to Risk Measurement of Drainage Systems in Urban Areas

Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

Abstract:

The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses greater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: risk management, drainage system, urban areas, urban floods

Procedia PDF Downloads 359
1209 Substructure Method for Thermal-Stress Analysis of Liquid-Propellant Rocket Engine Combustion Chamber

Authors: Olga V. Korotkaya

Abstract:

This article is devoted to an important problem of calculation of deflected mode of the combustion chamber and the nozzle end of a new liquid-propellant rocket cruise engine. A special attention is given to the methodology of calculation. Three operating modes are considered. The analysis has been conducted in ANSYS software. The methods of conducted research are mathematical modelling, substructure method, cyclic symmetry, and finite element method. The calculation has been carried out to order of S. P. Korolev Rocket and Space Corporation «Energia». The main results are practical. Proposed methodology and created models would be able to use for a wide range of strength problems.

Keywords: combustion chamber, cyclic symmetry, finite element method, liquid-propellant rocket engine, nozzle end, substructure

Procedia PDF Downloads 504
1208 Investigating the Form of the Generalised Equations of Motion of the N-Bob Pendulum and Computing Their Solution Using MATLAB

Authors: Divij Gupta

Abstract:

Pendular systems have a range of both mathematical and engineering applications, ranging from modelling the behaviour of a continuous mass-density rope to utilisation as Tuned Mass Dampers (TMD). Thus, it is of interest to study the differential equations governing the motion of such systems. Here we attempt to generalise these equations of motion for the plane compound pendulum with a finite number of N point masses. A Lagrangian approach is taken, and we attempt to find the generalised form for the Euler-Lagrange equations of motion for the i-th bob of the N -bob pendulum. The co-ordinates are parameterized as angular quantities to reduce the number of degrees of freedom from 2N to N to simplify the form of the equations. We analyse the form of these equations up to N = 4 to determine the general form of the equation. We also develop a MATLAB program to compute a solution to the system for a given input value of N and a given set of initial conditions.

Keywords: classical mechanics, differential equation, lagrangian analysis, pendulum

Procedia PDF Downloads 206
1207 Case Study Analysis of 2017 European Railway Traffic Management Incident: The Application of System for Investigation of Railway Interfaces Methodology

Authors: Sanjeev Kumar Appicharla

Abstract:

This paper presents the results of the modelling and analysis of the European Railway Traffic Management (ERTMS) safety-critical incident to raise awareness of biases in the systems engineering process on the Cambrian Railway in the UK using the RAIB 17/2019 as a primary input. The RAIB, the UK independent accident investigator, published the Report- RAIB 17/2019 giving the details of their investigation of the focal event in the form of immediate cause, causal factors, and underlying factors and recommendations to prevent a repeat of the safety-critical incident on the Cambrian Line. The Systems for Investigation of Railway Interfaces (SIRI) is the methodology used to model and analyze the safety-critical incident. The SIRI methodology uses the Swiss Cheese Model to model the incident and identify latent failure conditions (potentially less than adequate conditions) by means of the management oversight and risk tree technique. The benefits of the systems for investigation of railway interfaces methodology (SIRI) are threefold: first is that it incorporates the “Heuristics and Biases” approach advanced by 2002 Nobel laureate in Economic Sciences, Prof Daniel Kahneman, in the management oversight and risk tree technique to identify systematic errors. Civil engineering and programme management railway professionals are aware of the role “optimism bias” plays in programme cost overruns and are aware of bow tie (fault and event tree) model-based safety risk modelling techniques. However, the role of systematic errors due to “Heuristics and Biases” is not appreciated as yet. This overcomes the problems of omission of human and organizational factors from accident analysis. Second, the scope of the investigation includes all levels of the socio-technical system, including government, regulatory, railway safety bodies, duty holders, signaling firms and transport planners, and front-line staff such that lessons are learned at the decision making and implementation level as well. Third, the author’s past accident case studies are supplemented with research pieces of evidence drawn from the practitioner's and academic researchers’ publications as well. This is to discuss the role of system thinking to improve the decision-making and risk management processes and practices in the IEC 15288 systems engineering standard and in the industrial context such as the GB railways and artificial intelligence (AI) contexts as well.

Keywords: accident analysis, AI algorithm internal audit, bounded rationality, Byzantine failures, heuristics and biases approach

Procedia PDF Downloads 188
1206 The Systemic Approach to Risk Measurement of Drainage Systems in Urban Areas

Authors: Jadwiga Królikowska, Andrzej Królikowski, Jarosław Bajer

Abstract:

The work delineates the threats of maladjustment of the capacity of rain canals, designed and built in the early 20th century, in connection to heavy rainfall, especially in summer. This is the cause of the so called 'urban floods.' It directly relates to fierce raise of paving in the cities. Resolving this problem requires a change in philosophy of draining the rainfall by wider use of retention, infiltration and usage of rainwater. In systemic approach to managing the safety of urban drainage systems the risk, which is directly connected to safety failures, has been accepted as a measure. The risk level defines the probability of occurrence of losses grater than the ones forecast for a given time frame. The procedure of risk modelling, enabling its numeric analysis by using appropriate weights, is a significant issue in this paper.

Keywords: drainage system, urban areas, risk measurement, systemic approach

Procedia PDF Downloads 292
1205 Hygro-Thermal Modelling of Timber Decks

Authors: Stefania Fortino, Petr Hradil, Timo Avikainen

Abstract:

Timber bridges have an excellent environmental performance, are economical, relatively easy to build and can have a long service life. However, the durability of these bridges is the main problem because of their exposure to outdoor climate conditions. The moisture content accumulated in wood for long periods, in combination with certain temperatures, may cause conditions suitable for timber decay. In addition, moisture content variations affect the structural integrity, serviceability and loading capacity of timber bridges. Therefore, the monitoring of the moisture content in wood is important for the durability of the material but also for the whole superstructure. The measurements obtained by the usual sensor-based techniques provide hygro-thermal data only in specific locations of the wood components. In this context, the monitoring can be assisted by numerical modelling to get more information on the hygro-thermal response of the bridges. This work presents a hygro-thermal model based on a multi-phase moisture transport theory to predict the distribution of moisture content, relative humidity and temperature in wood. Below the fibre saturation point, the multi-phase theory simulates three phenomena in cellular wood during moisture transfer, i.e., the diffusion of water vapour in the pores, the sorption of bound water and the diffusion of bound water in the cell walls. In the multi-phase model, the two water phases are separated, and the coupling between them is defined through a sorption rate. Furthermore, an average between the temperature-dependent adsorption and desorption isotherms is used. In previous works by some of the authors, this approach was found very suitable to study the moisture transport in uncoated and coated stress-laminated timber decks. Compared to previous works, the hygro-thermal fluxes on the external surfaces include the influence of the absorbed solar radiation during the time and consequently, the temperatures on the surfaces exposed to the sun are higher. This affects the whole hygro-thermal response of the timber component. The multi-phase model, implemented in a user subroutine of Abaqus FEM code, provides the distribution of the moisture content, the temperature and the relative humidity in a volume of the timber deck. As a case study, the hygro-thermal data in wood are collected from the ongoing monitoring of the stress-laminated timber deck of Tapiola Bridge in Finland, based on integrated humidity-temperature sensors and the numerical results are found in good agreement with the measurements. The proposed model, used to assist the monitoring, can contribute to reducing the maintenance costs of bridges, as well as the cost of instrumentation, and increase safety.

Keywords: moisture content, multi-phase models, solar radiation, timber decks, FEM

Procedia PDF Downloads 174
1204 Planning of Green Infrastructure on a City Level

Authors: James Li, Darko Joksimovic

Abstract:

Urban development changes the natural hydrologic cycle, resulting in storm water impacts such as flooding, water quality degradation, receiving water erosion, and ecosystem deterioration. An integrated storm water managementapproach utilizing source and conveyance (termed green infrastructure) and end-of-pipe control measures is an effective way to manage urban storm water impacts. This paper focuses onplanning green infrastructure (GI) at the source and along the drainage system on a city level. It consists of (1)geospatial analysis of feasible GI using physical suitability; (2) modelling of cumulative GI's stormwater performance; and (3) cost-effectiveness analysis to prioritize the implementation of GI. A case study of the City of Barrie in Ontario, Canada, was used to demonstrate the GI's planning.

Keywords: cost-effectiveness of storm water controls, green infrastructure, urban storm water, city-level master planning

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1203 Variation of Inductance in a Switched-Reluctance Motor under Various Rotor Faults

Authors: Muhammad Asghar Saqib, Saad Saleem Khan, Syed Abdul Rahman Kashif

Abstract:

In order to have higher efficiency, performance and reliability the regular monitoring of an electrical motor is required. This article presents a novel view of the air-gap magnetic field analysis of a switched reluctance motor under rotor cracks and rotor tilt along its shaft axis. The fault diagnosis is illustrated on the basis of a 3-D model of the motor using finite element analysis (FEA). The analytical equations of flux linkages have been used to determine the inductance. The results of the 3-D finite element analysis on a 6/4 switched reluctance motor (SRM) shows the variation of mutual inductance with the tilting of the rotor shaft and cracked rotor conditions. These results present useful information regarding the detection of shaft tilting and cracked rotors.

Keywords: switched reluctance motor, finite element analysis, cracked rotor, 3-D modelling of a srm

Procedia PDF Downloads 661
1202 Pressure Distribution, Load Capacity, and Thermal Effect with Generalized Maxwell Model in Journal Bearing Lubrication

Authors: M. Guemmadi, A. Ouibrahim

Abstract:

This numerical investigation aims to evaluate how a viscoelastic lubricant described by a generalized Maxwell model, affects the pressure distribution, the load capacity and thermal effect in a journal bearing lubrication. We use for the purpose the CFD package software completed by adapted user define functions (UDFs) to solve the coupled equations of momentum, of energy and of the viscoelastic model (generalized Maxwell model). Two parameters, viscosity and relaxation time are involved to show how viscoelasticity substantially affect the pressure distribution, the load capacity and the thermal transfer by comparison to Newtonian lubricant. These results were also compared with the available published results.

Keywords: journal bearing, lubrication, Maxwell model, viscoelastic fluids, computational modelling, load capacity

Procedia PDF Downloads 541
1201 Optimal Driving Strategies for a Hybrid Street Type Motorcycle: Modelling and Control

Authors: Jhon Vargas, Gilberto Osorio-Gomez, Tatiana Manrique

Abstract:

This work presents an optimal driving strategy proposal for a 125 c.c. street-type hybrid electric motorcycle with a parallel configuration. The results presented in this article are complementary regarding the control proposal of a hybrid motorcycle. In order to carry out such developments, a representative dynamic model of the motorcycle is used, in which also are described different optimization functionalities for predetermined driving modes. The purpose is to implement an off-line optimal driving strategy which distributes energy to both engines by minimizing an objective torque requirement function. An optimal dynamic contribution is found from the optimization routine, and the optimal percentage contribution for vehicle cruise speed is implemented in the proposed online PID controller.

Keywords: dynamic model, driving strategies, parallel hybrid motorcycle, PID controller, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 186
1200 Forecasting Issues in Energy Markets within a Reg-ARIMA Framework

Authors: Ilaria Lucrezia Amerise

Abstract:

Electricity markets throughout the world have undergone substantial changes. Accurate, reliable, clear and comprehensible modeling and forecasting of different variables (loads and prices in the first instance) have achieved increasing importance. In this paper, we describe the actual state of the art focusing on reg-SARMA methods, which have proven to be flexible enough to accommodate the electricity price/load behavior satisfactory. More specifically, we will discuss: 1) The dichotomy between point and interval forecasts; 2) The difficult choice between stochastic (e.g. climatic variation) and non-deterministic predictors (e.g. calendar variables); 3) The confrontation between modelling a single aggregate time series or creating separated and potentially different models of sub-series. The noteworthy point that we would like to make it emerge is that prices and loads require different approaches that appear irreconcilable even though must be made reconcilable for the interests and activities of energy companies.

Keywords: interval forecasts, time series, electricity prices, reg-SARIMA methods

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1199 A New Multi-Target, Multi-Agent Search and Rescue Path Planning Approach

Authors: Jean Berger, Nassirou Lo, Martin Noel

Abstract:

Perfectly suited for natural or man-made emergency and disaster management situations such as flood, earthquakes, tornadoes, or tsunami, multi-target search path planning for a team of rescue agents is known to be computationally hard, and most techniques developed so far come short to successfully estimate optimality gap. A novel mixed-integer linear programming (MIP) formulation is proposed to optimally solve the multi-target multi-agent discrete search and rescue (SAR) path planning problem. Aimed at maximizing cumulative probability of successful target detection, it captures anticipated feedback information associated with possible observation outcomes resulting from projected path execution, while modeling agent discrete actions over all possible moving directions. Problem modeling further takes advantage of network representation to encompass decision variables, expedite compact constraint specification, and lead to substantial problem-solving speed-up. The proposed MIP approach uses CPLEX optimization machinery, efficiently computing near-optimal solutions for practical size problems, while giving a robust upper bound obtained from Lagrangean integrality constraint relaxation. Should eventually a target be positively detected during plan execution, a new problem instance would simply be reformulated from the current state, and then solved over the next decision cycle. A computational experiment shows the feasibility and the value of the proposed approach.

Keywords: search path planning, search and rescue, multi-agent, mixed-integer linear programming, optimization

Procedia PDF Downloads 370
1198 Simulation and Analytical Investigation of Different Combination of Single Phase Power Transformers

Authors: M. Salih Taci, N. Tayebi, I. Bozkır

Abstract:

In this paper, the equivalent circuit of the ideal single-phase power transformer with its appropriate voltage current measurement was presented. The calculated values of the voltages and currents of the different connections single phase normal transformer and the results of the simulation process are compared. As it can be seen, the calculated results are the same as the simulated results. This paper includes eight possible different transformer connections. Depending on the desired voltage level, step-down and step-up application transformer is considered. Modelling and analysis of a system consisting of an equivalent source, transformer (primary and secondary), and loads are performed to investigate the combinations. The obtained values are simulated in PSpice environment and then how the currents, voltages and phase angle are distributed between them is explained based on calculation.

Keywords: transformer, simulation, equivalent model, parallel series combinations

Procedia PDF Downloads 359