Search results for: combustion regimes
Commenced in January 2007
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Edition: International
Paper Count: 1071

Search results for: combustion regimes

81 Soil Quality Response to Long-Term Intensive Resources Management and Soil Texture

Authors: Dalia Feiziene, Virginijus Feiza, Agne Putramentaite, Jonas Volungevicius, Kristina Amaleviciute, Sarunas Antanaitis

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The investigations on soil conservation are one of the most important topics in modern agronomy. Soil management practices have great influence on soil physico-chemical quality and GHG emission. Research objective: To reveal the sensitivity and vitality of soils with different texture to long-term antropogenisation on Cambisol in Central Lithuania and to compare them with not antropogenised soil resources. Methods: Two long-term field experiments (loam on loam; sandy loam on loam) with different management intensity were estimated. Disturbed and undisturbed soil samples were collected from 5-10, 15-20 and 30-35 cm depths. Soil available P and K contents were determined by ammonium lactate extraction, total N by the dry combustion method, SOC content by Tyurin titrimetric (classical) method, texture by pipette method. In undisturbed core samples soil pore volume distribution, plant available water (PAW) content were determined. A closed chamber method was applied to quantify soil respiration (SR). Results: Long-term resources management changed soil quality. In soil with loam texture, within 0-10, 10-20 and 30-35 cm soil layers, significantly higher PAW, SOC and mesoporosity (MsP) were under no-tillage (NT) than under conventional tillage (CT). However, total porosity (TP) under NT was significantly higher only in 0-10 cm layer. MsP acted as dominant factor for N, P and K accumulation in adequate layers. P content in all soil layers was higher under NT than in CT. N and K contents were significantly higher than under CT only in 0-10 cm layer. In soil with sandy loam texture, significant increase in SOC, PAW, MsP, N, P and K under NT was only in 0-10 cm layer. TP under NT was significantly lower in all layers. PAW acted as strong dominant factor for N, P, K accumulation. The higher PAW the higher NPK contents were determined. NT did not secure chemical quality within deeper layers than CT. Long-term application of mineral fertilisers significantly increased SOC and soil NPK contents primarily in top-soil. Enlarged fertilization determined the significantly higher leaching of nutrients to deeper soil layers (CT) and increased hazards of top-soil pollution. Straw returning significantly increased SOC and NPK accumulation in top-soil. The SR on sandy loam was significantly higher than on loam. At dry weather conditions, on loam SR was higher in NT than in CT, on sandy loam SR was higher in CT than in NT. NPK fertilizers promoted significantly higher SR in both dry and wet year, but suppressed SR on sandy loam during usual year. Not antropogenised soil had similar SOC and NPK distribution within 0-35 cm layer and depended on genesis of soil profile horizons.

Keywords: fertilizers, long-term experiments, soil texture, soil tillage, straw

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80 Agricultural Mechanization for Transformation

Authors: Lawrence Gumbe

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Kenya Vision 2030 is the country's programme for transformation covering the period 2008 to 2030. Its objective is to help transform Kenya into a newly industrializing, middle-income, exceeding US$10000, country providing a high quality of life to all its citizens by 2030, in a clean and secure environment. Increased agricultural and production and productivity is crucial for the realization of Vision 2030. Mechanization of agriculture in order to achieve greater yields is the only way to achieve these objectives. There are contending groups and views on the strategy for agricultural mechanization. The first group are those who oppose the widespread adoption of advanced technologies (mostly internal combustion engines and tractors) in agricultural mechanization as entirely inappropriate in most situations in developing countries. This group argues that mechanically powered -agricultural mechanization often leads to displacement of labour and hence increased unemployment, and this results in a host of other socio-economic problems, amongst them, rural-urban migration, inequitable distribution of wealth and in many cases an increase in absolute poverty, balance of payments due to the need to import machinery, fuel and sometimes technical assistance to manage them. The second group comprises of those who view the use of the improved hand tools and animal powered technology as transitional step between the most rudimentary step in technological development (characterized by entire reliance on human muscle power) and the advanced technologies (characterized 'by reliance on tractors and other machinery). The third group comprises those who regard these intermediate technologies (ie. improved hand tools and draught animal technology in agriculture) as a ‘delaying’ tactic and they advocate the use of mechanical technologies as-the most appropriate. This group argues that alternatives to the mechanical technologies do not just exist as a practical matter, or, if they are available, they are inefficient and they cannot be compared to the mechanical technologies in terms of economics and productivity. The fourth group advocates a compromise between groups two and third above. This group views the improved hand tools and draught animal technology as more of an 18th century technology and the modem tractor and combine harvester as too advanced for developing countries. This group has been busy designing an ‘intermediate’, ‘appropriate’, ‘mini’, ‘micro’ tractor for use by farmers in developing countries. This paper analyses and concludes on the different agricultural mechanization strategies available to Kenya and other third world countries

Keywords: agriculture, mechanazation, transformation, industrialization

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79 The Role of Nickel on the High-Temperature Corrosion of Modell Alloys (Stainless Steels) before and after Breakaway Corrosion at 600°C: A Microstructural Investigation

Authors: Imran Hanif, Amanda Persdotter, Sedigheh Bigdeli, Jesper Liske, Torbjorn Jonsson

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Renewable fuels such as biomass/waste for power production is an attractive alternative to fossil fuels in order to achieve a CO₂ -neutral power generation. However, the combustion results in the release of corrosive species. This puts high demands on the corrosion resistance of the alloys used in the boiler. Stainless steels containing nickel and/or nickel containing coatings are regarded as suitable corrosion resistance material especially in the superheater regions. However, the corrosive environment in the boiler caused by the presence of water vapour and reactive alkali very rapidly breaks down the primary protection, i.e., the Cr-rich oxide scale formed on stainless steels. The lifetime of the components, therefore, relies on the properties of the oxide scale formed after breakaway, i.e., the secondary protection. The aim of the current study is to investigate the role of varying nickel content (0–82%) on the high-temperature corrosion of model alloys with 18% Cr (Fe in balance) in the laboratory mimicking industrial conditions at 600°C. The influence of nickel is investigated on both the primary protection and especially the secondary protection, i.e., the scale formed after breakaway, during the oxidation/corrosion process in the dry O₂ (primary protection) and more aggressive environment such as H₂O, K₂CO₃ and KCl (secondary protection). All investigated alloys experience a very rapid loss of the primary protection, i.e., the Cr-rich (Cr, Fe)₂O₃, and the formation of secondary protection in the aggressive environments. The microstructural investigation showed that secondary protection of all alloys has a very similar microstructure in all more aggressive environments consisting of an outward growing iron oxide and inward growing spinel-oxide (Fe, Cr, Ni)₃O₄. The oxidation kinetics revealed that it is possible to influence the protectiveness of the scale formed after breakaway (secondary protection) through the amount of nickel in the alloy. The difference in oxidation kinetics of the secondary protection is linked to the microstructure and chemical composition of the complex spinel-oxide. The detailed microstructural investigations were carried out using the extensive analytical techniques such as electron back scattered diffraction (EBSD), energy dispersive X-rays spectroscopy (EDS) via the scanning and transmission electron microscopy techniques and results are compared with the thermodynamic calculations using the Thermo-Calc software.

Keywords: breakaway corrosion, EBSD, high-temperature oxidation, SEM, TEM

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78 Na Doped ZnO UV Filters with Reduced Photocatalytic Activity for Sunscreen Application

Authors: Rafid Mueen, Konstantin Konstantinov, Micheal Lerch, Zhenxiang Cheng

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In the past two decades, the concern for skin protection from ultraviolet (UV) radiation has attracted considerable attention due to the increased intensity of UV rays that can reach the Earth’s surface as a result of the breakdown of ozone layer. Recently, UVA has also attracted attention, since, in comparison to UVB, it can penetrate deeply into the skin, which can result in significant health concerns. Sunscreen agents are one of the significant tools to protect the skin from UV irradiation, and it is either organic or in organic. Developing of inorganic UV blockers is essential, which provide efficient UV protection over a wide spectrum rather than organic filters. Furthermore inorganic UV blockers are good comfort, and high safety when applied on human skin. Inorganic materials can absorb, reflect, or scatter the ultraviolet radiation, depending on their particle size, unlike the organic blockers, which absorb the UV irradiation. Nowadays, most inorganic UV-blocking filters are based on (TiO2) and ZnO). ZnO can provide protection in the UVA range. Indeed, ZnO is attractive for in sunscreen formulization, and this relates to many advantages, such as its modest refractive index (2.0), absorption of a small fraction of solar radiation in the UV range which is equal to or less than 385 nm, its high probable recombination of photogenerated carriers (electrons and holes), large direct band gap, high exciton binding energy, non-risky nature, and high tendency towards chemical and physical stability which make it transparent in the visible region with UV protective activity. A significant issue for ZnO use in sunscreens is that it can generate ROS in the presence of UV light because of its photocatalytic activity. Therefore it is essential to make a non-photocatalytic material through modification by other metals. Several efforts have been made to deactivate the photocatalytic activity of ZnO by using inorganic surface modifiers. The doping of ZnO by different metals is another way to modify its photocatalytic activity. Recently, successful doping of ZnO with different metals such as Ce, La, Co, Mn, Al, Li, Na, K, and Cr by various procedures, such as a simple and facile one pot water bath, co-precipitation, hydrothermal, solvothermal, combustion, and sol gel methods has been reported. These materials exhibit greater performance than undoped ZnO towards increasing the photocatalytic activity of ZnO in visible light. Therefore, metal doping can be an effective technique to modify the ZnO photocatalytic activity. However, in the current work, we successfully reduce the photocatalytic activity of ZnO through Na doped ZnO fabricated via sol-gel and hydrothermal methods.

Keywords: photocatalytic, ROS, UVA, ZnO

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77 Influence of Mandrel’s Surface on the Properties of Joints Produced by Magnetic Pulse Welding

Authors: Ines Oliveira, Ana Reis

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Magnetic Pulse Welding (MPW) is a cold solid-state welding process, accomplished by the electromagnetically driven, high-speed and low-angle impact between two metallic surfaces. It has the same working principle of Explosive Welding (EXW), i.e. is based on the collision of two parts at high impact speed, in this case, propelled by electromagnetic force. Under proper conditions, i.e., flyer velocity and collision point angle, a permanent metallurgical bond can be achieved between widely dissimilar metals. MPW has been considered a promising alternative to the conventional welding processes and advantageous when compared to other impact processes. Nevertheless, MPW current applications are mostly academic. Despite the existing knowledge, the lack of consensus regarding several aspects of the process calls for further investigation. As a result, the mechanical resistance, morphology and structure of the weld interface in MPW of Al/Cu dissimilar pair were investigated. The effect of process parameters, namely gap, standoff distance and energy, were studied. It was shown that welding only takes place if the process parameters are within an optimal range. Additionally, the formation of intermetallic phases cannot be completely avoided in the weld of Al/Cu dissimilar pair by MPW. Depending on the process parameters, the intermetallic compounds can appear as continuous layer or small pockets. The thickness and the composition of the intermetallic layer depend on the processing parameters. Different intermetallic phases can be identified, meaning that different temperature-time regimes can occur during the process. It is also found that lower pulse energies are preferred. The relationship between energy increase and melting is possibly related to multiple sources of heating. Higher values of pulse energy are associated with higher induced currents in the part, meaning that more Joule heating will be generated. In addition, more energy means higher flyer velocity, the air existing in the gap between the parts to be welded is expelled, and this aerodynamic drag (fluid friction) is proportional to the square of the velocity, further contributing to the generation of heat. As the kinetic energy also increases with the square of velocity, the dissipation of this energy through plastic work and jet generation will also contribute to an increase in temperature. To reduce intermetallic phases, porosity, and melt pockets, pulse energy should be minimized. The bond formation is affected not only by the gap, standoff distance, and energy but also by the mandrel’s surface conditions. No correlation was clearly identified between surface roughness/scratch orientation and joint strength. Nevertheless, the aspect of the interface (thickness of the intermetallic layer, porosity, presence of macro/microcracks) is clearly affected by the surface topology. Welding was not established on oil contaminated surfaces, meaning that the jet action is not enough to completely clean the surface.

Keywords: bonding mechanisms, impact welding, intermetallic compounds, magnetic pulse welding, wave formation

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76 A Prediction Method of Pollutants Distribution Pattern: Flare Motion Using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Fluent Model with Weather Research Forecast Input Model during Transition Season

Authors: Benedictus Asriparusa, Lathifah Al Hakimi, Aulia Husada

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A large amount of energy is being wasted by the release of natural gas associated with the oil industry. This release interrupts the environment particularly atmosphere layer condition globally which contributes to global warming impact. This research presents an overview of the methods employed by researchers in PT. Chevron Pacific Indonesia in the Minas area to determine a new prediction method of measuring and reducing gas flaring and its emission. The method emphasizes advanced research which involved analytical studies, numerical studies, modeling, and computer simulations, amongst other techniques. A flaring system is the controlled burning of natural gas in the course of routine oil and gas production operations. This burning occurs at the end of a flare stack or boom. The combustion process releases emissions of greenhouse gases such as NO2, CO2, SO2, etc. This condition will affect the chemical composition of air and environment around the boundary layer mainly during transition season. Transition season in Indonesia is absolutely very difficult condition to predict its pattern caused by the difference of two air mass conditions. This paper research focused on transition season in 2013. A simulation to create the new pattern of the pollutants distribution is needed. This paper has outlines trends in gas flaring modeling and current developments to predict the dominant variables in the pollutants distribution. A Fluent model is used to simulate the distribution of pollutants gas coming out of the stack, whereas WRF model output is used to overcome the limitations of the analysis of meteorological data and atmospheric conditions in the study area. Based on the running model, the most influence factor was wind speed. The goal of the simulation is to predict the new pattern based on the time of fastest wind and slowest wind occurs for pollutants distribution. According to the simulation results, it can be seen that the fastest wind (last of March) moves pollutants in a horizontal direction and the slowest wind (middle of May) moves pollutants vertically. Besides, the design of flare stack in compliance according to EPA Oil and Gas Facility Stack Parameters likely shows pollutants concentration remains on the under threshold NAAQS (National Ambient Air Quality Standards).

Keywords: flare motion, new prediction, pollutants distribution, transition season, WRF model

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75 Green Wave Control Strategy for Optimal Energy Consumption by Model Predictive Control in Electric Vehicles

Authors: Furkan Ozkan, M. Selcuk Arslan, Hatice Mercan

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Electric vehicles are becoming increasingly popular asa sustainable alternative to traditional combustion engine vehicles. However, to fully realize the potential of EVs in reducing environmental impact and energy consumption, efficient control strategies are essential. This study explores the application of green wave control using model predictive control for electric vehicles, coupled with energy consumption modeling using neural networks. The use of MPC allows for real-time optimization of the vehicles’ energy consumption while considering dynamic traffic conditions. By leveraging neural networks for energy consumption modeling, the EV's performance can be further enhanced through accurate predictions and adaptive control. The integration of these advanced control and modeling techniques aims to maximize energy efficiency and range while navigating urban traffic scenarios. The findings of this research offer valuable insights into the potential of green wave control for electric vehicles and demonstrate the significance of integrating MPC and neural network modeling for optimizing energy consumption. This work contributes to the advancement of sustainable transportation systems and the widespread adoption of electric vehicles. To evaluate the effectiveness of the green wave control strategy in real-world urban environments, extensive simulations were conducted using a high-fidelity vehicle model and realistic traffic scenarios. The results indicate that the integration of model predictive control and energy consumption modeling with neural networks had a significant impact on the energy efficiency and range of electric vehicles. Through the use of MPC, the electric vehicle was able to adapt its speed and acceleration profile in realtime to optimize energy consumption while maintaining travel time objectives. The neural network-based energy consumption modeling provided accurate predictions, enabling the vehicle to anticipate and respond to variations in traffic flow, further enhancing energy efficiency and range. Furthermore, the study revealed that the green wave control strategy not only reduced energy consumption but also improved the overall driving experience by minimizing abrupt acceleration and deceleration, leading to a smoother and more comfortable ride for passengers. These results demonstrate the potential for green wave control to revolutionize urban transportation by enhancing the performance of electric vehicles and contributing to a more sustainable and efficient mobility ecosystem.

Keywords: electric vehicles, energy efficiency, green wave control, model predictive control, neural networks

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74 Functionalized Spherical Aluminosilicates in Biomedically Grade Composites

Authors: Damian Stanislaw Nakonieczny, Grazyna Simha Martynkova, Marianna Hundakova, G. Kratosová, Karla Cech Barabaszova

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The main aim of the research was to functionalize the surface of spherical aluminum silicates in the form of so-called cenospheres. Cenospheres are light ceramic particles with a density between 0.45 and 0.85 kgm-3 hat can be obtained as a result of separation from fly ash from coal combustion. However, their occurrence is limited to about 1% by weight of dry ash mainly derived from anthracite. Hence they are very rare and desirable material. Cenospheres are characterized by complete chemical inertness. Mohs hardness in range of 6 and completely smooth surface. Main idea was to prepare the surface by chemical etching, among others hydrofluoric acid (HF) and hydrogen peroxide, caro acid, silanization using (3-aminopropyl) triethoxysilane (APTES) and tetraethyl orthosilicate (TEOS) to obtain the maximum development and functionalization of the surface to improve chemical and mechanical connection with biomedically used polymers, i.e., polyacrylic methacrylate (PMMA) and polyetheretherketone (PEEK). These polymers are used medically mainly as a material for fixed and removable dental prostheses and PEEK spinal implants. The problem with their use is the decrease in mechanical properties over time and bacterial infections fungal during implantation and use of dentures. Hence, the use of a ceramic filler that will significantly improve the mechanical properties, improve the fluidity of the polymer during shape formation, and in the future, will be able to support bacteriostatic substances such as silver and zinc ions seem promising. In order to evaluate our laboratory work, several instrumental studies were performed: chemical composition and morphology with scanning electron microscopy with Energy-Dispersive X-Ray Probe (SEM/EDX), determination of characteristic functional groups of Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR), phase composition of X-ray Diffraction (XRD) and thermal analysis of Thermo Gravimetric Analysis/differentia thermal analysis (TGA/DTA), as well as assessment of isotherm of adsorption with Brunauer-Emmett-Teller (BET) surface development. The surface was evaluated for the future application of additional bacteria and static fungus layers. Based on the experimental work, it was found that orated methods can be suitable for the functionalization of the surface of cenosphere ceramics, and in the future it can be suitable as a bacteriostatic filler for biomedical polymers, i.e., PEEK or PMMA.

Keywords: bioceramics, composites, functionalization, surface development

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73 Simulation Research of Diesel Aircraft Engine

Authors: Łukasz Grabowski, Michał Gęca, Mirosław Wendeker

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This paper presents the simulation results of a new opposed piston diesel engine to power a light aircraft. Created in the AVL Boost, the model covers the entire charge passage, from the inlet up to the outlet. The model shows fuel injection into cylinders and combustion in cylinders. The calculation uses the module for two-stroke engines. The model was created using sub-models available in this software that structure the model. Each of the sub-models is complemented with parameters in line with the design premise. Since engine weight resulting from geometric dimensions is fundamental in aircraft engines, two configurations of stroke were studied. For each of the values, there were calculated selected operating conditions defined by crankshaft speed. The required power was achieved by changing air fuel ratio (AFR). There was also studied brake specific fuel consumption (BSFC). For stroke S1, the BSFC was lowest at all of the three operating points. This difference is approximately 1-2%, which means higher overall engine efficiency but the amount of fuel injected into cylinders is larger by several mg for S1. The cylinder maximum pressure is lower for S2 due to the fact that compressor gear driving remained the same and boost pressure was identical in the both cases. Calculations for various values of boost pressure were the next stage of the study. In each of the calculation case, the amount of fuel was changed to achieve the required engine power. In the former case, the intake system dimensions were modified, i.e. the duct connecting the compressor and the air cooler, so its diameter D = 40 mm was equal to the diameter of the compressor outlet duct. The impact of duct length was also examined to be able to reduce the flow pulsation during the operating cycle. For the so selected geometry of the intake system, there were calculations for various values of boost pressure. The boost pressure was changed by modifying the gear driving the compressor. To reach the required level of cruising power N = 68 kW. Due to the mechanical power consumed by the compressor, high pressure ratio results in a worsened overall engine efficiency. The figure on the change in BSFC from 210 g/kWh to nearly 270 g/kWh shows this correlation and the overall engine efficiency is reduced by about 8%. Acknowledgement: This work has been realized in the cooperation with The Construction Office of WSK "PZL-KALISZ" S.A." and is part of Grant Agreement No. POIR.01.02.00-00-0002/15 financed by the Polish National Centre for Research and Development.

Keywords: aircraft, diesel, engine, simulation

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72 Polar Bears in Antarctica: An Analysis of Treaty Barriers

Authors: Madison Hall

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The Assisted Colonization of Polar Bears to Antarctica requires a careful analysis of treaties to understand existing legal barriers to Ursus maritimus transport and movement. An absence of land-based migration routes prevent polar bears from accessing southern polar regions on their own. This lack of access is compounded by current treaties which limit human intervention and assistance to ford these physical and legal barriers. In a time of massive planetary extinctions, Assisted Colonization posits that certain endangered species may be prime candidates for relocation to hospitable environments to which they have never previously had access. By analyzing existing treaties, this paper will examine how polar bears are limited in movement by humankind’s legal barriers. International treaties may be considered codified reflections of anthropocentric values of the best knowledge and understanding of an identified problem at a set point in time, as understood through the human lens. Even as human social values and scientific insights evolve, so too must treaties evolve which specify legal frameworks and structures impacting keystone species and related biomes. Due to costs and other myriad difficulties, only a very select number of species will be given this opportunity. While some species move into new regions and are then deemed invasive, Assisted Colonization considers that some assistance may be mandated due to the nature of humankind’s role in climate change. This moral question and ethical imperative against the backdrop of escalating climate impacts, drives the question forward; what is the potential for successfully relocating a select handful of charismatic and ecologically important life forms? Is it possible to reimagine a different, but balanced Antarctic ecosystem? Listed as a threatened species under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, a result of the ongoing loss of critical habitat by melting sea ice, polar bears have limited options for long term survival in the wild. Our current regime for safeguarding animals facing extinction frequently utilizes zoos and their breeding programs, to keep alive the genetic diversity of the species until some future time when reintroduction, somewhere, may be attempted. By exploring the potential for polar bears to be relocated to Antarctica, we must analyze the complex ethical, legal, political, financial, and biological realms, which are the backdrop to framing all questions in this arena. Can we do it? Should we do it? By utilizing an environmental ethics perspective, we propose that the Ecological Commons of the Arctic and Antarctic should not be viewed solely through the lens of human resource management needs. From this perspective, polar bears do not need our permission, they need our assistance. Antarctica therefore represents a second, if imperfect chance, to buy time for polar bears, in a world where polar regimes, not yet fully understood, are themselves quickly changing as a result of climate change.

Keywords: polar bear, climate change, environmental ethics, Arctic, Antarctica, assisted colonization, treaty

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71 Altering the Solid Phase Speciation of Arsenic in Paddy Soil: An Approach to Reduce Rice Grain Arsenic Uptake

Authors: Supriya Majumder, Pabitra Banik

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Fates of Arsenic (As) on the soil-plant environment belong to the critical emerging issue, which in turn to appraises the threatening implications of a human health risk — assessing the dynamics of As in soil solid components are likely to impose its potential availability towards plant uptake. In the present context, we introduced an improved Sequential Extraction Procedure (SEP) questioning to identify solid-phase speciation of As in paddy soil under variable soil environmental conditions during two consecutive seasons of rice cultivation practices. We coupled gradients of water management practices with the addition of fertilizer amendments to assess the changes in a partition of As through a field experimental study during monsoon and post-monsoon season using two rice cultivars. Water management regimes were varied based on the methods of cultivation of rice by Conventional (waterlogged) vis-a-vis System of Rice Intensification-SRI (saturated). Fertilizer amendment through the nutrient treatment of absolute control, NPK-RD, NPK-RD + Calcium silicate, NPK-RD + Ferrous sulfate, Farmyard manure (FYM), FYM + Calcium silicate, FYM + Ferrous sulfate, Vermicompost (VC), VC + Calcium silicate, VC + Ferrous sulfate were selected to construct the study. After harvest, soil samples were sequentially extracted to estimate partition of As among the different fractions such as: exchangeable (F1), specifically sorbed (F2), As bound to amorphous Fe oxides (F3), crystalline Fe oxides (F4), organic matter (F5) and residual phase (F6). Results showed that the major proportions of As were found in F3, F4 and F6, whereas F1 exhibited the lowest proportion of total soil As. Among the nutrient treatment mediated changes on As fractions, the application of organic manure and ferrous sulfate were significantly found to restrict the release of As from exchangeable phase. Meanwhile, conventional practice produced much higher release of As from F1 as compared to SRI, which may substantially increase the environmental risk. In contrast, SRI practice was found to retain a significantly higher proportion of As in F2, F3, and F4 phase resulting restricted mobilization of As. This was critically reflected towards rice grain As bioavailability where the reduction in grain As concentration of 33% and 55% in SRI concerning conventional treatment (p <0.05) during monsoon and post-monsoon season respectively. Also, prediction assay for rice grain As bioavailability based on the linear regression model was performed. Results demonstrated that rice grain As concentration was positively correlated with As concentration in F1 and negatively correlated with F2, F3, and F4 with a satisfactory level of variation being explained (p <0.001). Finally, we conclude that F1, F2, F3 and F4 are the major soil. As fractions critically may govern the potential availability of As in soil and suggest that rice cultivation with the SRI treatment is particularly at less risk of As availability in soil. Such exhaustive information may be useful for adopting certain management practices for rice grown in contaminated soil concerning to the environmental issues in particular.

Keywords: arsenic, fractionation, paddy soil, potential availability

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70 i-Plastic: Surface and Water Column Microplastics From the Coastal North Eastern Atlantic (Portugal)

Authors: Beatriz Rebocho, Elisabete Valente, Carla Palma, Andreia Guilherme, Filipa Bessa, Paula Sobral

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The global accumulation of plastic in the oceans is a growing problem. Plastic is transported from its source to the oceans via rivers, which are considered the main route for plastic particles from land-based sources to the ocean. These plastics undergo physical and chemical degradation resulting in microplastics. The i-Plastic project aims to understand and predict the dispersion, accumulation and impacts of microplastics (5 mm to 1 µm) and nano plastics (below 1 µm) in marine environments from the tropical and temperate land-ocean interface to the open ocean under distinct flow and climate regimes. Seasonal monitoring of the fluxes of microplastics was carried out in (three) coastal areas in Brazil, Portugal and Spain. The present work shows the first results of in-situ seasonal monitoring and mapping of microplastics in ocean waters between Ovar and Vieira de Leiria (Portugal), in which 43 surface water samples and 43 water column samples were collected in contrasting seasons (spring and autumn). The spring and autumn surface water samples were collected with a 300 µm and 150 µm pore neuston net, respectively. In both campaigns, water column samples were collected using a conical mesh with a 150 µm pore. The experimental procedure comprises the following steps: i) sieving by a metal sieve; ii) digestion with potassium hydroxide to remove the organic matter original from the sample matrix. After a filtration step, the content is retained on a membrane and observed under a stereomicroscope, and physical and chemical characterization (type, color, size, and polymer composition) of the microparticles is performed. Results showed that 84% and 88% of the surface water and water column samples were contaminated with microplastics, respectively. Surface water samples collected during the spring campaign averaged 0.35 MP.m-3, while surface water samples collected during autumn recorded 0.39 MP.m-3. Water column samples from the spring campaign had an average of 1.46 MP.m-3, while those from the autumn recorded 2.54 MP.m-3. In the spring, all microplastics found were fibers, predominantly black and blue. In autumn, the dominant particles found in the surface waters were fibers, while in the water column, fragments were dominant. In spring, the average size of surface water particles was 888 μm, while in the water column was 1063 μm. In autumn, the average size of surface and water column microplastics was 1333 μm and 1393 μm, respectively. The main polymers identified by Attenuated Total Reflectance (ATR) and micro-ATR Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy from all samples were low-density polyethylene (LDPE), polypropylene (PP), polyethylene terephthalate (PET), and polyvinyl chloride (PVC). The significant difference between the microplastic concentration in the water column between the two campaigns could be due to the remixing of the water masses that occurred that week due to the occurrence of a storm. This work presents preliminary results since the i-Plastic project is still in progress. These results will contribute to the understanding of the spatial and temporal dispersion and accumulation of microplastics in this marine environment.

Keywords: microplastics, Portugal, Atlantic Ocean, water column, surface water

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69 Self-Assembling Layered Double Hydroxide Nanosheets on β-FeOOH Nanorods for Reducing Fire Hazards of Epoxy Resin

Authors: Wei Wang, Yuan Hu

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Epoxy resins (EP), one of the most important thermosetting polymers, is widely applied in various fields due to its desirable properties, such as excellent electrical insulation, low shrinkage, outstanding mechanical stiffness, satisfactory adhesion and solvent resistance. However, like most of the polymeric materials, EP has the fatal drawbacks including inherent flammability and high yield of toxic smoke, which restricts its application in the fields requiring fire safety. So, it is still a challenge and an interesting subject to develop new flame retardants which can not only remarkably improve the flame retardancy, but also render modified resins low toxic gases generation. In recent work, polymer nanocomposites based on nanohybrids that contain two or more kinds of nanofillers have drawn intensive interest, which can realize performance enhancements. The realization of previous hybrids of carbon nanotubes (CNTs) and molybdenum disulfide provides us a novel route to decorate layered double hydroxide (LDH) nanosheets on the surface of β-FeOOH nanorods; the deposited LDH nanosheets can fill the network and promote the work efficiency of β-FeOOH nanorods. Moreover, the synergistic effects between LDH and β-FeOOH can be anticipated to have potential applications in reducing fire hazards of EP composites for the combination of condense-phase and gas-phase mechanism. As reported, β-FeOOH nanorods can act as a core to prepare hybrid nanostructures combining with other nanoparticles through electrostatic attraction through layer-by-layer assembly technique. In this work, LDH nanosheets wrapped β-FeOOH nanorods (LDH-β-FeOOH) hybrids was synthesized by a facile method, with the purpose of combining the characteristics of one dimension (1D) and two dimension (2D), to improve the fire resistance of epoxy resin. The hybrids showed a well dispersion in EP matrix and had no obvious aggregation. Thermogravimetric analysis and cone calorimeter tests confirmed that LDH-β-FeOOH hybrids into EP matrix with a loading of 3% could obviously improve the fire safety of EP composites. The plausible flame retardancy mechanism was explored by thermogravimetric infrared (TG-IR) and X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy. The reasons were concluded: condense-phase and gas-phase. Nanofillers were transferred to the surface of matrix during combustion, which could not only shield EP matrix from external radiation and heat feedback from the fire zone, but also efficiently retard transport of oxygen and flammable pyrolysis.

Keywords: fire hazards, toxic gases, self-assembly, epoxy

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68 Density Determination of Liquid Niobium by Means of Ohmic Pulse-Heating for Critical Point Estimation

Authors: Matthias Leitner, Gernot Pottlacher

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Experimental determination of critical point data like critical temperature, critical pressure, critical volume and critical compressibility of high-melting metals such as niobium is very rare due to the outstanding experimental difficulties in reaching the necessary extreme temperature and pressure regimes. Experimental techniques to achieve such extreme conditions could be diamond anvil devices, two stage gas guns or metal samples hit by explosively accelerated flyers. Electrical pulse-heating under increased pressures would be another choice. This technique heats thin wire samples of 0.5 mm diameter and 40 mm length from room temperature to melting and then further to the end of the stable phase, the spinodal line, within several microseconds. When crossing the spinodal line, the sample explodes and reaches the gaseous phase. In our laboratory, pulse-heating experiments can be performed under variation of the ambient pressure from 1 to 5000 bar and allow a direct determination of critical point data for low-melting, but not for high-melting metals. However, the critical point also can be estimated by extrapolating the liquid phase density according to theoretical models. A reasonable prerequisite for the extrapolation is the existence of data that cover as much as possible of the liquid phase and at the same time exhibit small uncertainties. Ohmic pulse-heating was therefore applied to determine thermal volume expansion, and from that density of niobium over the entire liquid phase. As a first step, experiments under ambient pressure were performed. The second step will be to perform experiments under high-pressure conditions. During the heating process, shadow images of the expanding sample wire were captured at a frame rate of 4 × 105 fps to monitor the radial expansion as a function of time. Simultaneously, the sample radiance was measured with a pyrometer operating at a mean effective wavelength of 652 nm. To increase the accuracy of temperature deduction, spectral emittance in the liquid phase is also taken into account. Due to the high heating rates of about 2 × 108 K/s, longitudinal expansion of the wire is inhibited which implies an increased radial expansion. As a consequence, measuring the temperature dependent radial expansion is sufficient to deduce density as a function of temperature. This is accomplished by evaluating the full widths at half maximum of the cup-shaped intensity profiles that are calculated from each shadow image of the expanding wire. Relating these diameters to the diameter obtained before the pulse-heating start, the temperature dependent volume expansion is calculated. With the help of the known room-temperature density, volume expansion is then converted into density data. The so-obtained liquid density behavior is compared to existing literature data and provides another independent source of experimental data. In this work, the newly determined off-critical liquid phase density was in a second step utilized as input data for the estimation of niobium’s critical point. The approach used, heuristically takes into account the crossover from mean field to Ising behavior, as well as the non-linearity of the phase diagram’s diameter.

Keywords: critical point data, density, liquid metals, niobium, ohmic pulse-heating, volume expansion

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67 Investigations on the Application of Avalanche Simulations: A Survey Conducted among Avalanche Experts

Authors: Korbinian Schmidtner, Rudolf Sailer, Perry Bartelt, Wolfgang Fellin, Jan-Thomas Fischer, Matthias Granig

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This study focuses on the evaluation of snow avalanche simulations, based on a survey that has been carried out among avalanche experts. In the last decades, the application of avalanche simulation tools has gained recognition within the realm of hazard management. Traditionally, avalanche runout models were used to predict extreme avalanche runout and prepare avalanche maps. This has changed rather dramatically with the application of numerical models. For safety regulations such as road safety simulation tools are now being coupled with real-time meteorological measurements to predict frequent avalanche hazard. That places new demands on model accuracy and requires the simulation of physical processes that previously could be ignored. These simulation tools are based on a deterministic description of the avalanche movement allowing to predict certain quantities (e.g. pressure, velocities, flow heights, runout lengths etc.) of the avalanche flow. Because of the highly variable regimes of the flowing snow, no uniform rheological law describing the motion of an avalanche is known. Therefore, analogies to fluid dynamical laws of other materials are stated. To transfer these constitutional laws to snow flows, certain assumptions and adjustments have to be imposed. Besides these limitations, there exist high uncertainties regarding the initial and boundary conditions. Further challenges arise when implementing the underlying flow model equations into an algorithm executable by a computer. This implementation is constrained by the choice of adequate numerical methods and their computational feasibility. Hence, the model development is compelled to introduce further simplifications and the related uncertainties. In the light of these issues many questions arise on avalanche simulations, on their assets and drawbacks, on potentials for improvements as well as their application in practice. To address these questions a survey among experts in the field of avalanche science (e.g. researchers, practitioners, engineers) from various countries has been conducted. In the questionnaire, special attention is drawn on the expert’s opinion regarding the influence of certain variables on the simulation result, their uncertainty and the reliability of the results. Furthermore, it was tested to which degree a simulation result influences the decision making for a hazard assessment. A discrepancy could be found between a large uncertainty of the simulation input parameters as compared to a relatively high reliability of the results. This contradiction can be explained taking into account how the experts employ the simulations. The credibility of the simulations is the result of a rather thoroughly simulation study, where different assumptions are tested, comparing the results of different flow models along with the use of supplemental data such as chronicles, field observation, silent witnesses i.a. which are regarded as essential for the hazard assessment and for sanctioning simulation results. As the importance of avalanche simulations grows within the hazard management along with their further development studies focusing on the modeling fashion could contribute to a better understanding how knowledge of the avalanche process can be gained by running simulations.

Keywords: expert interview, hazard management, modeling, simulation, snow avalanche

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66 Geodynamic Evolution of the Tunisian Dorsal Backland (Central Mediterranean) from the Cenozoic to Present

Authors: Aymen Arfaoui, Abdelkader Soumaya, Noureddine Ben Ayed

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The study region is located in the Tunisian Dorsal Backland (Central Mediterranean), which is the easternmost part of the Saharan Atlas mountain range, trending southwest-northeast. Based on our fieldwork, seismic tomography images, seismicity, and previous studies, we propose an interpretation of the relationship between the surface deformation and fault kinematics in the study area and the internal dynamic processes acting in the Central Mediterranean from the Cenozoic to the present. The subduction and dynamics of internal forces beneath the complicated Maghrebides mobile belt have an impact on the Tertiary and Quaternary tectonic regimes in the Pelagian and Atlassic foreland that is part of our study region. The left lateral reactivation of the major "Tunisian N-S Axis fault" and the development of a compressional relay between the Hammamet Korbous and Messella-Ressas faults are possibly a result of tectonic stresses due to the slab roll-back following the Africa/Eurasia convergence. After the slab segmentation and its eastward migration (5–4 Ma) and the formation of the Strait of Sicily "rift zone" further east, a transtensional tectonic regime has been installed in this area. According to seismic tomography images, the STEP fault of the "North-South Axis" at Hammamet-Korbous coincides with the western edge of the "Slab windows" of the Sicilian Channel and the eastern boundary of the positive anomalies attributed to the residual Slab of Tunisia. On the other hand, significant E-W Plio-Quaternary tectonic activity may be observed along the eastern portion of this STEP fault system in the Grombalia zone as a result of recent vertical lithospheric motion in response to the lateral slab migration eastward to Sicily Channel. According to SKS fast splitting directions, the upper mantle flow pattern beneath Tunisian Dorsal is parallel to the NE-SW to E-W orientation of the Shmin identified in the study area, similar to the Plio-Quaternary extensional orientation in the Central Mediterranean. Additionally, the removal of the lithosphere and the subsequent uplift of the sub-lithospheric mantle beneath the topographic highs of the Dorsal and its surroundings may be the cause of the dominant extensional to transtensional Quaternary regime. The occurrence of strike-slip and extensional seismic events in the Pelagian block reveals that the regional transtensional tectonic regime persists today. Finally, we believe that the geodynamic history of the study area since the Cenozoic is primarily influenced by the preexisting weak zones, the African slab detachment, and the upper mantle flow pattern in the central Mediterranean.

Keywords: Tunisia, lithospheric discontinuity (STEP fault), geodynamic evolution, Tunisian dorsal backland, strike-slip fault, seismic tomography, seismicity, central Mediterranean

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65 Gear Fault Diagnosis Based on Optimal Morlet Wavelet Filter and Autocorrelation Enhancement

Authors: Mohamed El Morsy, Gabriela Achtenová

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Condition monitoring is used to increase machinery availability and machinery performance, whilst reducing consequential damage, increasing machine life, reducing spare parts inventories, and reducing breakdown maintenance. An efficient condition monitoring system provides early warning of faults by predicting them at an early stage. When a localized fault occurs in gears, the vibration signals always exhibit non-stationary behavior. The periodic impulsive feature of the vibration signal appears in the time domain and the corresponding gear mesh frequency (GMF) emerges in the frequency domain. However, one limitation of frequency-domain analysis is its inability to handle non-stationary waveform signals, which are very common when machinery faults occur. Particularly at the early stage of gear failure, the GMF contains very little energy and is often overwhelmed by noise and higher-level macro-structural vibrations. An effective signal processing method would be necessary to remove such corrupting noise and interference. In this paper, a new hybrid method based on optimal Morlet wavelet filter and autocorrelation enhancement is presented. First, to eliminate the frequency associated with interferential vibrations, the vibration signal is filtered with a band-pass filter determined by a Morlet wavelet whose parameters are selected or optimized based on maximum Kurtosis. Then, to further reduce the residual in-band noise and highlight the periodic impulsive feature, an autocorrelation enhancement algorithm is applied to the filtered signal. The test stand is equipped with three dynamometers; the input dynamometer serves as the internal combustion engine, the output dynamometers induce a load on the output joint shaft flanges. The pitting defect is manufactured on the tooth side of a gear of the fifth speed on the secondary shaft. The gearbox used for experimental measurements is of the type most commonly used in modern small to mid-sized passenger cars with transversely mounted powertrain and front wheel drive: a five-speed gearbox with final drive gear and front wheel differential. The results obtained from practical experiments prove that the proposed method is very effective for gear fault diagnosis.

Keywords: wavelet analysis, pitted gear, autocorrelation, gear fault diagnosis

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64 Micromechanism of Ionization Effects on Metal/Gas Mixing Instabilty at Extreme Shock Compressing Conditions

Authors: Shenghong Huang, Weirong Wang, Xisheng Luo, Xinzhu Li, Xinwen Zhao

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Understanding of material mixing induced by Richtmyer-Meshkov instability (RMI) at extreme shock compressing conditions (high energy density environment: P >> 100GPa, T >> 10000k) is of great significance in engineering and science, such as inertial confinement fusion(ICF), supersonic combustion, etc. Turbulent mixing induced by RMI is a kind of complex fluid dynamics, which is closely related with hydrodynamic conditions, thermodynamic states, material physical properties such as compressibility, strength, surface tension and viscosity, etc. as well as initial perturbation on interface. For phenomena in ordinary thermodynamic conditions (low energy density environment), many investigations have been conducted and many progresses have been reported, while for mixing in extreme thermodynamic conditions, the evolution may be very different due to ionization as well as large difference of material physical properties, which is full of scientific problems and academic interests. In this investigation, the first principle based molecular dynamic method is applied to study metal Lithium and gas Hydrogen (Li-H2) interface mixing in micro/meso scale regime at different shock compressing loading speed ranging from 3 km/s to 30 km/s. It's found that, 1) Different from low-speed shock compressing cases, in high-speed shock compresing (>9km/s) cases, a strong acceleration of metal/gas interface after strong shock compression is observed numerically, leading to a strong phase inverse and spike growing with a relative larger linear rate. And more specially, the spike growing rate is observed to be increased with shock loading speed, presenting large discrepancy with available empirical RMI models; 2) Ionization is happened in shock font zone at high-speed loading cases(>9km/s). An additional local electric field induced by the inhomogeneous diffusion of electrons and nuclei after shock font is observed to occur near the metal/gas interface, leading to a large acceleration of nuclei in this zone; 3) In conclusion, the work of additional electric field contributes to a mechanism of RMI in micro/meso scale regime at extreme shock compressing conditions, i.e., a Rayleigh-Taylor instability(RTI) is induced by additional electric field during RMI mixing process and thus a larger linear growing rate of interface spike.

Keywords: ionization, micro/meso scale, material mixing, shock

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63 Mandate of Heaven and Serving the People in Chinese Political Rhetoric: An Evolving Discourse System across Three Thousand Years

Authors: Weixiao Wei, Chris Shei

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This paper describes Mandate of Heaven as a source of justification for the ruling regime from ancient China approximately three thousand years ago. Initially, the kings of Shang dynasty simply nominated themselves as the sons of Heaven sent to Earth to rule the common people. As the last generation of the kings became corrupted and ruled withbrutal force and crueltywhich directly caused their destruction, the successive kings of Zhou dynasty realised the importance of virtue and the provision of goods to the people. Legitimacy of the ruling regimes became rested not entirely on random allocation of the throne by an unknown supernatural force but on a foundation comprising morality and the ability to provide goods. The latter composite was picked up by the current ruling regime, the Chinese Communist Party, and became the cornerstone of its political legitimacy, also known as ‘performance legitimacy’ where economic development accounts for the satisfaction of the people in place of election and other democratic means of providing legal-rational legitimacy. Under this circumstance, it becomes important as well for the ruling party to use political rhetoric to convince people of the good performance of the government in the economy, morality, and foreign policy. Thus, we see a lot of propaganda materials in both government policy statements and international press conference announcements. The former consists mainly of important speeches made by prominent figures in Party conferences which are not only made publicly available on the government websites but also become obligatory reading materials for university entrance examinations. The later consists of announcements about foreign policies and strategies and actions taken by the government regarding foreign affairsmade in international conferences and offered in Chinese-English bilingual versions on official websites. This documentation strategy creates an impressive image of the Chinese Communist Party that is domestically competent and international strong, taking care of the people it governs in terms of economic needs and defending the country against any foreign interference and global adversities. This political discourse system comprising reading materials fully extractable from government websites also becomes excellent repertoire for teaching and researching in contemporary Chinese language, discourse and rhetoric, Chinese culture and tradition, Chinese political ideology, and Chinese-English translation. This paper aims to provide a detailed and comprehensive description of the current Chinese political discourse system, arguing about its lineage from the rhetorical convention of Mandate of Heaven in ancient China and its current concentration on serving the people in place of election, human rights, and freedom of speech. The paper will also provide guidelines as to how this discourse system and the manifestation of official documents created under this system can become excellent research and teaching materials in applied linguistics.

Keywords: mandate of heaven, Chinese communist party, performance legitimacy, serving the people, political discourse

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62 Forecasting Market Share of Electric Vehicles in Taiwan Using Conjoint Models and Monte Carlo Simulation

Authors: Li-hsing Shih, Wei-Jen Hsu

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Recently, the sale of electrical vehicles (EVs) has increased dramatically due to maturing technology development and decreasing cost. Governments of many countries have made regulations and policies in favor of EVs due to their long-term commitment to net zero carbon emissions. However, due to uncertain factors such as the future price of EVs, forecasting the future market share of EVs is a challenging subject for both the auto industry and local government. This study tries to forecast the market share of EVs using conjoint models and Monte Carlo simulation. The research is conducted in three phases. (1) A conjoint model is established to represent the customer preference structure on purchasing vehicles while five product attributes of both EV and internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) are selected. A questionnaire survey is conducted to collect responses from Taiwanese consumers and estimate the part-worth utility functions of all respondents. The resulting part-worth utility functions can be used to estimate the market share, assuming each respondent will purchase the product with the highest total utility. For example, attribute values of an ICEV and a competing EV are given respectively, two total utilities of the two vehicles of a respondent are calculated and then knowing his/her choice. Once the choices of all respondents are known, an estimate of market share can be obtained. (2) Among the attributes, future price is the key attribute that dominates consumers’ choice. This study adopts the assumption of a learning curve to predict the future price of EVs. Based on the learning curve method and past price data of EVs, a regression model is established and the probability distribution function of the price of EVs in 2030 is obtained. (3) Since the future price is a random variable from the results of phase 2, a Monte Carlo simulation is then conducted to simulate the choices of all respondents by using their part-worth utility functions. For instance, using one thousand generated future prices of an EV together with other forecasted attribute values of the EV and an ICEV, one thousand market shares can be obtained with a Monte Carlo simulation. The resulting probability distribution of the market share of EVs provides more information than a fixed number forecast, reflecting the uncertain nature of the future development of EVs. The research results can help the auto industry and local government make more appropriate decisions and future action plans.

Keywords: conjoint model, electrical vehicle, learning curve, Monte Carlo simulation

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61 Numerical Investigation of Plasma-Fuel System (PFS) for Coal Ignition and Combustion

Authors: Vladimir Messerle, Alexandr Ustimenko, Oleg Lavrichshev

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To enhance the efficiency of solid fuels’ use, to decrease the fuel oil rate in the thermal power plants fuel balance and to minimize harmful emissions, a plasma technology of coal ignition, gasification and incineration is successfully applied. This technology is plasma thermochemical preparation of fuel for burning (PTCPF). In the framework of this concept, some portion of pulverized solid fuel (PF) is separated from the main PF flow and undergone the activation by arc plasma in a specific chamber with plasma torch – PFS. The air plasma flame is a source of heat and additional oxidation, it provides a high-temperature medium enriched with radicals, where the fuel mixture is heated, volatile components of coal are extracted, and carbon is partially gasified. This active blended fuel can ignite the main PF flow supplied into the furnace. This technology provides the boiler start-up and stabilization of PF flame and eliminates the necessity for addition of highly reactive fuel. In the report, a model of PTCPF, implemented as a program PlasmaKinTherm for the PFS calculation is described. The model combines thermodynamic and kinetic methods for describing the process of PTCPF in PFS. The numerical investigation of operational parameters of PFS depending on the electric power of the plasma generator and steam coal ash content revealed the temperature and velocity of gas and coal particles, and concentrations of PTCPF products dependences on the PFS length. Main mechanisms of PTCPF were disclosed. It was found that in the range of electric power of plasma generator from 40 to 100 kW high ash bituminous coal, having consumption 1667 kg/h is ignited stably. High level of temperature (1740 K) and concentration of combustible components (44%) at the PFS exit is a confirmation of it. Augmentation in power of plasma generator results displacement maxima temperatures and speeds of PTCPF products upstream (in the direction of the plasma source). The maximum temperature and velocity vary in a narrow range of values and practically do not depend on the power of the plasma torch. The numerical study of indicators of the process of PTCPF depending on the ash content in the range of its values 20-70% demonstrated that at the exit of PFS concentration of combustible components decreases with an increase in coal ash, the temperature of the gaseous products is increasing, and coal carbon conversion rate is increased to a maximum value when the ash content of 60%, dramatically decreasing with further increase in the ash content.

Keywords: coal, efficiency, ignition, numerical modeling, plasma generator, plasma-fuel system

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60 Combining a Continuum of Hidden Regimes and a Heteroskedastic Three-Factor Model in Option Pricing

Authors: Rachid Belhachemi, Pierre Rostan, Alexandra Rostan

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This paper develops a discrete-time option pricing model for index options. The model consists of two key ingredients. First, daily stock return innovations are driven by a continuous hidden threshold mixed skew-normal (HTSN) distribution which generates conditional non-normality that is needed to fit daily index return. The most important feature of the HTSN is the inclusion of a latent state variable with a continuum of states, unlike the traditional mixture distributions where the state variable is discrete with little number of states. The HTSN distribution belongs to the class of univariate probability distributions where parameters of the distribution capture the dependence between the variable of interest and the continuous latent state variable (the regime). The distribution has an interpretation in terms of a mixture distribution with time-varying mixing probabilities. It has been shown empirically that this distribution outperforms its main competitor, the mixed normal (MN) distribution, in terms of capturing the stylized facts known for stock returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence. Second, heteroscedasticity in the model is captured by a threeexogenous-factor GARCH model (GARCHX), where the factors are taken from the principal components analysis of various world indices and presents an application to option pricing. The factors of the GARCHX model are extracted from a matrix of world indices applying principal component analysis (PCA). The empirically determined factors are uncorrelated and represent truly different common components driving the returns. Both factors and the eight parameters inherent to the HTSN distribution aim at capturing the impact of the state of the economy on price levels since distribution parameters have economic interpretations in terms of conditional volatilities and correlations of the returns with the hidden continuous state. The PCA identifies statistically independent factors affecting the random evolution of a given pool of assets -in our paper a pool of international stock indices- and sorting them by order of relative importance. The PCA computes a historical cross asset covariance matrix and identifies principal components representing independent factors. In our paper, factors are used to calibrate the HTSN-GARCHX model and are ultimately responsible for the nature of the distribution of random variables being generated. We benchmark our model to the MN-GARCHX model following the same PCA methodology and the standard Black-Scholes model. We show that our model outperforms the benchmark in terms of RMSE in dollar losses for put and call options, which in turn outperforms the analytical Black-Scholes by capturing the stylized facts known for index returns, namely, volatility clustering, leverage effect, skewness, kurtosis and regime dependence.

Keywords: continuous hidden threshold, factor models, GARCHX models, option pricing, risk-premium

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59 Influence of La0.1Sr0.9Co1-xFexO3-δ Catalysts on Oxygen Permeation Using Mixed Conductor

Authors: Y. Muto, S. Araki, H. Yamamoto

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The separation of oxygen is one key technology to improve the efficiency and to reduce the cost for the processed of the partial oxidation of the methane and the condensation of the carbon dioxide. Particularly, carbon dioxide at high concentration would be obtained by the combustion using pure oxygen separated from air. However, the oxygen separation process occupied the large part of energy consumption. Therefore, it is considered that the membrane technologies enable to separation at lower cost and lower energy consumption than conventional methods. In this study, it is examined that the separation of oxygen using membranes of mixed conductors. Oxygen permeation through the membrane is occurred by the following three processes. At first, the oxygen molecules dissociate into oxygen ion at feed side of the membrane, subsequently, oxygen ions diffuse in the membrane. Finally, oxygen ions recombine to form the oxygen molecule. Therefore, it is expected that the membrane of thickness and material, or catalysts of the dissociation and recombination affect the membrane performance. However, there is little article about catalysts for the dissociation and recombination. We confirmed the performance of La0.6Sr0.4Co1.0O3-δ (LSC) based catalyst which was commonly used as the dissociation and recombination. It is known that the adsorbed amount of oxygen increase with the increase of doped Fe content in B site of LSC. We prepared the catalysts of La0.1Sr0.9Co0.9Fe0.1O3-δ(C9F1), La0.1Sr0.9Co0.5Fe0.5O3-δ(C5F5) and La0.1Sr0.9Co0.3Fe0.7O3-δ(C7F3). Also, we used Pr2NiO4 type mixed conductor as a membrane material. (Pr0.9La0.1)2(Ni0.74Cu0.21Ga0.05)O4+δ(PLNCG) shows the high oxygen permeability and the stability against carbon dioxide. Oxygen permeation experiments were carried out using a homemade apparatus at 850 -975 °C. The membrane was sealed with Pyrex glass at both end of the outside dense alumina tubes. To measure the oxygen permeation rate, air was fed to the film side at 50 ml min-1, helium as the sweep gas and reference gas was fed at 20 ml min-1. The flow rates of the sweep gas and the gas permeated through the membrane were measured using flow meter and the gas concentrations were determined using a gas chromatograph. Then, the permeance of the oxygen was determined using the flow rate and the concentration of the gas on the permeate side of the membrane. The increase of oxygen permeation was observed with increasing temperature. It is considered that this is due to the catalytic activities are increased with increasing temperature. Another reason is the increase of oxygen diffusivity in the bulk of membrane. The oxygen permeation rate is improved by using catalyst of LSC or LSCF. The oxygen permeation rate of membrane with LSCF showed higher than that of membrane with LSC. Furthermore, in LSCF catalysts, oxygen permeation rate increased with the increase of the doped amount of Fe. It is considered that this is caused by the increased of adsorbed amount of oxygen.

Keywords: membrane separation, oxygen permeation, K2NiF4-type structure, mixed conductor

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58 Reducing Diagnostic Error in Australian Emergency Departments Using a Behavioural Approach

Authors: Breanna Wright, Peter Bragge

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Diagnostic error rates in healthcare are approximately 10% of cases. Diagnostic errors can cause patient harm due to inappropriate, inadequate or delayed treatment, and such errors contribute heavily to medical liability claims globally. Therefore, addressing diagnostic error is a high priority. In most cases, diagnostic errors are the result of faulty information synthesis rather than lack of knowledge. Specifically, the majority of diagnostic errors involve cognitive factors, and in particular, cognitive biases. Emergency Departments are an environment with heightened risk of diagnostic error due to time and resource pressures, a frequently chaotic environment, and patients arriving undifferentiated and with minimal context. This project aimed to develop a behavioural, evidence-informed intervention to reduce diagnostic error in Emergency Departments through co-design with emergency physicians, insurers, researchers, hospital managers, citizens and consumer representatives. The Forum Process was utilised to address this aim. This involves convening a small (4 – 6 member) expert panel to guide a focused literature and practice review; convening of a 10 – 12 person citizens panel to gather perspectives of laypeople, including those affected by misdiagnoses; and a 18 – 22 person structured stakeholder dialogue bringing together representatives of the aforementioned stakeholder groups. The process not only provides in-depth analysis of the problem and associated behaviours, but brings together expertise and insight to facilitate identification of a behaviour change intervention. Informed by the literature and practice review, the Citizens Panel focused on eliciting the values and concerns of those affected or potentially affected by diagnostic error. Citizens were comfortable with diagnostic uncertainty if doctors were honest with them. They also emphasised the importance of open communication between doctors and patients and their families. Citizens expect more consistent standards across the state and better access for both patients and their doctors to patient health information to avoid time-consuming re-taking of long patient histories and medication regimes when re-presenting at Emergency Departments and to reduce the risk of unintentional omissions. The structured Stakeholder Dialogue focused on identifying a feasible behavioural intervention to review diagnoses in Emergency Departments. This needed to consider the role of cognitive bias in medical decision-making; contextual factors (in Victoria, there is a legislated 4-hour maximum time between ED triage and discharge / hospital admission); resource availability; and the need to ensure the intervention could work in large metropolitan as well as small rural and regional ED settings across Victoria. The identified behavioural intervention will be piloted in approximately ten hospital EDs across Victoria, Australia. This presentation will detail the findings of all review and consultation activities, describe the behavioural intervention developed and present results of the pilot trial.

Keywords: behavioural intervention, cognitive bias, decision-making, diagnostic error

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57 Optimization and Evaluation of Different Pathways to Produce Biofuel from Biomass

Authors: Xiang Zheng, Zhaoping Zhong

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In this study, Aspen Plus was used to simulate the whole process of biomass conversion to liquid fuel in different ways, and the main results of material and energy flow were obtained. The process optimization and evaluation were carried out on the four routes of cellulosic biomass pyrolysis gasification low-carbon olefin synthesis olefin oligomerization, biomass water pyrolysis and polymerization to jet fuel, biomass fermentation to ethanol, and biomass pyrolysis to liquid fuel. The environmental impacts of three biomass species (poplar wood, corn stover, and rice husk) were compared by the gasification synthesis pathway. The global warming potential, acidification potential, and eutrophication potential of the three biomasses were the same as those of rice husk > poplar wood > corn stover. In terms of human health hazard potential and solid waste potential, the results were poplar > rice husk > corn stover. In the popular pathway, 100 kg of poplar biomass was input to obtain 11.9 kg of aviation coal fraction and 6.3 kg of gasoline fraction. The energy conversion rate of the system was 31.6% when the output product energy included only the aviation coal product. In the basic process of hydrothermal depolymerization process, 14.41 kg aviation kerosene was produced per 100 kg biomass. The energy conversion rate of the basic process was 33.09%, which can be increased to 38.47% after the optimal utilization of lignin gasification and steam reforming for hydrogen production. The total exergy efficiency of the system increased from 30.48% to 34.43% after optimization, and the exergy loss mainly came from the concentration of precursor dilute solution. Global warming potential in environmental impact is mostly affected by the production process. Poplar wood was used as raw material in the process of ethanol production from cellulosic biomass. The simulation results showed that 827.4 kg of pretreatment mixture, 450.6 kg of fermentation broth, and 24.8 kg of ethanol were produced per 100 kg of biomass. The power output of boiler combustion reached 94.1 MJ, the unit power consumption in the process was 174.9 MJ, and the energy conversion rate was 33.5%. The environmental impact was mainly concentrated in the production process and agricultural processes. On the basis of the original biomass pyrolysis to liquid fuel, the enzymatic hydrolysis lignin residue produced by cellulose fermentation to produce ethanol was used as the pyrolysis raw material, and the fermentation and pyrolysis processes were coupled. In the coupled process, 24.8 kg ethanol and 4.78 kg upgraded liquid fuel were produced per 100 kg biomass with an energy conversion rate of 35.13%.

Keywords: biomass conversion, biofuel, process optimization, life cycle assessment

Procedia PDF Downloads 55
56 Non-Time and Non-Sense: Temporalities of Addiction for Heroin Users in Scotland

Authors: Laura Roe

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This study draws on twelve months of ethnographic fieldwork conducted in 2017 with heroin and poly-substance users in Scotland and explores experiences of time and temporality as factors in continuing drug use. The research largely took place over the year in which drug-related deaths in Scotland reached a record high, and were statistically recorded as the highest in Europe. This qualitative research is therefore significant in understanding both evolving patterns of drug use and the experiential lifeworlds of those who use heroin and other substances in high doses. Methodologies included participant observation, structured and semi-structured interviews, and unstructured conversations with twenty-two regular participants. The fieldwork was conducted in two needle exchanges, a community recovery group and in the community. The initial aim of the study was to assess evolving patterns of drug preferences in order to explore a clinical and user-reported rise in the use of novel psychoactive substances (NPS), which are typically considered to be highly potent, synthetic substances, often available at a low cost. It was found, however, that while most research participants had experimented with NPS with varying intensity, those who used every day regularly consumed heroin, methadone, and alcohol with benzodiazepines such as diazepam or anticonvulsants such as gabapentin. The research found that many participants deliberately pursued the non-fatal effects of overdose, aiming to induce states of dissociation, detachment and uneven consciousness, and did so by both mixing substances and experimenting with novel modes of consumption. Temporality was significant in the decision to consume cocktails of substances, as users described wishing to sever themselves from time; entering into states of ‘non-time’ and insensibility through specific modes of intoxication. Time and temporality similarly impacted other aspects of addicted life. Periods of attempted abstinence witnessed a slowing of time’s passage that was tied to affective states of boredom and melancholy, in addition to a disruptive return of distressing and difficult memories. Abject past memories frequently dominated and disrupted the present, which otherwise could be highly immersive due to the time and energy-consuming nature of seeking drugs while in financial difficulty. There was furthermore a discordance between individual user temporalities and the strict time-based regimes of recovery services and institutional bodies, and the study aims to highlight the impact of such a disjuncture on the efficacy of treatment programs. Many participants had difficulty in adhering to set appointments or temporal frameworks due to their specific temporal situatedness. Overall, exploring increasing tendencies of heroin users in Scotland towards poly-substance use, this study draws on experiences and perceptions of time, analysing how temporality comes to bear on the ways drugs are sought and consumed, and how recovery is imagined and enacted. The study attempts to outline the experiential, intimate and subjective worlds of heroin and poly-substance users while explicating the structural and historical factors that shape them.

Keywords: addiction, poly-substance use, temporality, timelessness

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55 Revisiting Politics of Religion in Muslim Republics of Former Soviet Union and Rise of Extremism, Global Jihadi Terrorism

Authors: Etibar Guliyev

Abstract:

The breakdown of the Soviet Union in 1991 has led to a considerable rise in the religious self-consciousness of Muslim population of the Central Asia. Additionally, huge amount of money spent by various states further facilitated the spread of religious ideas. According to some sources, Saudi Arabia spent 87 billion dollars to propagate Wahhabism abroad during two decades, whereas the Communist Party of the Soviet Union spent just over 7 billion dollars to spread its ideology worldwide between 1921 and 1991. As the result, today once a remote area from international politics has turned into third major source of recruitment of fighters for global terrorist organizations. In order to illustrate to scope of the involvement of the Central Asian residents in international terrorist networks it is enough to mention the name of Colonel Gulmorod Khalimov, the former head of the Tajik special police forces who served as ISIS war minister between 2016 and 2017. The importance of the topic stems from the fact that the above-mentioned republics with a territory of 4 million square km and the population of around 80 million people borders Russia, Iran Afghanistan and China. Moreover, the fact that political and military activities motivated with religious feelings in those countries have implications not only for domestic but also for regional and global political relations and all of them has root in politics of religions adds value to the research. This research aims to provide an in-depth analyses of the marked features of the state policies to regulate religious activities and approach this question both from individual, domestic, regional and global levels of analyses. The research will enable us to better understand what implications have the state of religious freedom in post-Soviet Muslim republics for international relations and the rise of global jihadi terrorism. The paper tries to find a linkage between the mentioned terror attacks and underground rise of religious extremism in Central Asia. This research is based on multiple research methods, mainly on qualitative one. The process tracing method is also employed to review religious policies implemented from 1918-1991 and after the collapse of the Soviet Union in a chronological way. In terms of the quantitative method, it chiefly will be used in a bid to process various statistics disseminated in academic and official sources. The research mostly explored constructivist, securitization and social movement theories. Findings of the research suggests that the endemic problems peculiar to authoritarian regimes of Central Asia such as crackdown on the expression of religious believe and any kind of opposition, economic decline, instrumental use of religion and corruption and tribalism further accelerated the recruitment problem. Paper also concludes that the Central Asian states in some cases misused counter-terrorism campaign as a pretext to further restrict freedom of faith in their respective countries.

Keywords: identity, political Islam, religious extremism, security, terrorism

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54 Policy Initiatives That Increase Mass-Market Participation of Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles

Authors: Usman Asif, Klaus Schmidt

Abstract:

In recent years, the development of alternate fuel vehicles has helped to reduce carbon emissions worldwide. As the number of vehicles will continue to increase in the future, the energy demand will also increase. Therefore, we must consider automotive technologies that are efficient and less harmful to the environment in the long run. Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs) have gained popularity in recent years because of their lower maintenance, lower fuel costs, and lower carbon emissions. Nevertheless, BEVs show several disadvantages, such as slow charging times and lower range than traditional combustion-powered vehicles. These factors keep many people from switching to BEVs. The authors of this research believe that these limitations can be overcome by using fuel cell technology. Fuel cell technology converts chemical energy into electrical energy from hydrogen power and therefore serves as fuel to power the motor and thus replacing heavy lithium batteries that are expensive and hard to recycle. Also, in contrast to battery-powered electric vehicle technology, Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles (FCEVs) offer higher ranges and lower fuel-up times and therefore are more competitive with electric vehicles. However, FCEVs have not gained the same popularity as electric vehicles due to stringent legal frameworks, underdeveloped infrastructure, high fuel transport, and storage costs plus the expense of fuel cell technology itself. This research will focus on the legal frameworks for hydrogen-powered vehicles, and how a change in these policies may affect and improve hydrogen fueling infrastructure and lower hydrogen transport and storage costs. These policies may also facilitate reductions in fuel cell technology costs. In order to attain a better framework, a number of countries have developed conceptual roadmaps. These roadmaps have set out a series of objectives to increase the access of FCEVs to their respective markets. This research will specifically focus on policies in Japan, Europe, and the USA in their attempt to shape the automotive industry of the future. The researchers also suggest additional policies that may help to accelerate the advancement of FCEVs to mass-markets. The approach was to provide a solid literature review using resources from around the globe. After a subsequent analysis and synthesis of this review, the authors concluded that in spite of existing legal challenges that have hindered the advancement of fuel-cell technology in the automobile industry in the past, new initiatives that enhance and advance the very same technology in the future are underway.

Keywords: fuel cell electric vehicles, fuel cell technology, legal frameworks, policies and regulations

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53 Enhancing Police Accountability through the Malawi Independent Police Complaints Commission: Prospects and Challenges That Lie Ahead

Authors: Esther Gumboh

Abstract:

The police play a critical role in society and are an integral aspect of the rule of law. Equally, respect for human rights is an integral part of professional policing. In view of the vast powers that the police enjoy and the attendant risk of abuse and resulting human rights violations, the need for police accountability and civilian police oversight is internationally and regionally recognised. Policing oversight springs from the duty to investigate human rights violations. Those implicated in perpetrating or covering up violations must be disciplined or prosecuted to ensure effective accountability. Police accountability is particularly important in Malawi given the dark history of policing in the country during the 30-year dictatorial era under President Kamuzu Banda. Described as one of the most repressive regimes in Africa, the Banda administration was characterised by gross state-sponsored violence, repressive policing and human rights violations. Indeed, the police were involved in various forms of human rights abuse including arbitrary arrests and unlawful detentions, torture, and excessive use of force in conducting arrests and public order policing. This situation flourished within a culture of police impunity bolstered in part by the absence of clear oversight mechanisms for police accountability. In turn, there was immense public mistrust of the police. Unsurprisingly, the criminal justice system was one of the priority areas for reform when Malawi adopted its first democratic Constitution in 1994. Section 153 of the Constitution envisions a police service that is, for all intents and purposes, there to provide for the protection of public safety and the rights of persons in Malawi according to the prescriptions of the Constitution and any other law. This position reflects the view that the duty to protect and promote human rights is not incompatible with effective policing. Despite this, the police continue to engage in questionable behaviour in public order policing, excessive use of force, deaths in police custody, ill-treatment, torture and other forms of abuse including sexual abuse. Perpetrators of abuses are occasionally punished, but investigations are often delayed, abandoned, or remain inconclusive. Police accountability remains largely elusive. Commendably, the law does subject the police to significant oversight both internally and externally. However, until 2010, Malawi lacked a wholly independent civilian oversight mechanism specifically mandated to monitor the activities of the Malawi Police Service and held it accountable. This void has since been filled by the Independent Complaints Commission established under the Police Act. This is a positive development that reiterates Malawi’s commitment to the investigation of human rights violations by the police and to ending police impunity. This contribution examines the legal framework for this Commission to project the effectiveness of the Commission. While the framework looks promising on various fronts, there are potential challenges that lie ahead. Malawi must pre-emptively deal with these challenges carefully if the Commission is to have any practical significance in transforming police accountability in the country. Drawing on lessons from other jurisdictions like South Africa, the paper makes recommendations for legislative reform to strengthen the Commission’s framework.

Keywords: civilian policing oversight, Malawi, police, police accountability, policing, policing oversight

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52 Application and Aspects of Biometeorology in Inland Open Water Fisheries Management in the Context of Changing Climate: Status and Research Needs

Authors: U.K. Sarkar, G. Karnatak, P. Mishal, Lianthuamluaia, S. Kumari, S.K. Das, B.K. Das

Abstract:

Inland open water fisheries provide food, income, livelihood and nutritional security to millions of fishers across the globe. However, the open water ecosystem and fisheries are threatened due to climate change and anthropogenic pressures, which are more visible in the recent six decades, making the resources vulnerable. Understanding the interaction between meteorological parameters and inland fisheries is imperative to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. As per IPCC 5th assessment report, the earth is warming at a faster rate in recent decades. Global mean surface temperature (GMST) for the decade 2006–2015 (0.87°C) was 6 times higher than the average over the 1850–1900 period. The direct and indirect impacts of climatic parameters on the ecology of fisheries ecosystem have a great bearing on fisheries due to alterations in fish physiology. The impact of meteorological factors on ecosystem health and fish food organisms brings about changes in fish diversity, assemblage, reproduction and natural recruitment. India’s average temperature has risen by around 0.7°C during 1901–2018. The studies show that the mean air temperature in the Ganga basin has increased in the range of 0.20 - 0.47 °C and annual rainfall decreased in the range of 257-580 mm during the last three decades. The studies clearly indicate visible impacts of climatic and environmental factors on inland open water fisheries. Besides, a significant reduction in-depth and area (37.20–57.68% reduction), diversity of natural indigenous fish fauna (ranging from 22.85 to 54%) in wetlands and progression of trophic state from mesotrophic to eutrophic were recorded. In this communication, different applications of biometeorology in inland fisheries management with special reference to the assessment of ecosystem and species vulnerability to climatic variability and change have been discussed. Further, the paper discusses the impact of climate anomaly and extreme climatic events on inland fisheries and emphasizes novel modeling approaches for understanding the impact of climatic and environmental factors on reproductive phenology for identification of climate-sensitive/resilient fish species for the adoption of climate-smart fisheries in the future. Adaptation and mitigation strategies to enhance fish production and the role of culture-based fisheries and enclosure culture in converting sequestered carbon into blue carbon have also been discussed. In general, the type and direction of influence of meteorological parameters on fish biology in open water fisheries ecosystems are not adequately understood. The optimum range of meteorological parameters for sustaining inland open water fisheries is yet to be established. Therefore, the application of biometeorology in inland fisheries offers ample scope for understanding the dynamics in changing climate, which would help to develop a database on such least, addressed research frontier area. This would further help to project fisheries scenarios in changing climate regimes and develop adaptation and mitigation strategies to cope up with adverse meteorological factors to sustain fisheries and to conserve aquatic ecosystem and biodiversity.

Keywords: biometeorology, inland fisheries, aquatic ecosystem, modeling, India

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