Search results for: Markov chain Monte Carlo method

Authors: G. Martino, F. Silva, E. Marchal

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The control over delivered iron ore blend characteristics is one of the most important aspects of the mining business. The iron ore price is a function of its composition, which is the outcome of the beneficiation process. So, end-to-end integrated planning of mine operations can reduce risks of penalties on the iron ore price. In a standard iron mining company, the production chain is composed of mining, ore beneficiation, and client supply. When mine planning and client supply decisions are made uncoordinated, the beneficiation plant struggles to deliver the best blend possible. Technological improvements in several fields allowed bridging the gap between departments and boosting integrated decision-making processes. Clusterization and classification algorithms over historical production data generate reasonable previsions for quality and volume of iron ore produced for each pile of run-of-mine (ROM) processed. Mathematical modeling can use those deterministic relations to propose iron ore blends that better-fit specifications within a delivery schedule. Additionally, a model capable of representing the whole production chain can clearly compare the overall impact of different decisions in the process. This study shows how flexibilization combined with a planning optimization model between the mine and the ore beneficiation processes can reduce risks of out of specification deliveries. The model capabilities are illustrated on a hypothetical iron ore mine with magnetic separation process. Finally, this study shows ways of cost reduction or profit increase by optimizing process indicators across the production chain and integrating the different plannings with the sales decisions.

Keywords: clusterization and classification algorithms, integrated planning, mathematical modeling, optimization, penalty minimization

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Authors: Mende Mensa Sorato, Majid Davari, Abbas Kebriaeezadeh, Nizal Sarrafzadegan, Tamiru Shibru, Behzad Fatemi

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Markov model, like cardiovascular disease (CVD) policy model based simulation, is being used for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of hypertension treatment. Stroke, angina, myocardial infarction (MI), cardiac arrest, and all-cause mortality were included in this model. Hypertension is a risk factor for a number of vascular and cardiac complications and CVD outcomes. Objective: This systematic review was conducted to evaluate the comprehensiveness of this model across different regions globally. Methods: We searched articles written in the English language from PubMed/Medline, Ovid/Medline, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, and Google scholar with a systematic search query. Results: Thirteen cohort studies involving a total of 2,165,770 (1,666,554 hypertensive adult population and 499,226 adults with treatment-resistant hypertension) were included in this scoping review. Hypertension is clearly associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality, unstable angina, stable angina, MI, heart failure (HF), sudden cardiac death, transient ischemic attack, ischemic stroke, subarachnoid hemorrhage, intracranial hemorrhage, peripheral arterial disease (PAD), and abdominal aortic aneurism (AAA). Association between HF and hypertension is variable across regions. Treatment resistant hypertension is associated with a higher relative risk of developing major cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality when compared with non-resistant hypertension. However, it is not included in the previous CVD policy model. Conclusion: The CVD policy model used can be used in most regions for the evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of hypertension treatment. However, hypertension is highly associated with HF in Latin America, the Caribbean, Eastern Europe, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore, it is important to consider HF in the CVD policy model for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of hypertension treatment in these regions. We do not suggest the inclusion of PAD and AAA in the CVD policy model for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of hypertension treatment due to a lack of sufficient evidence. Researchers should consider the effect of treatment-resistant hypertension either by including it in the basic model or during setting the model assumptions.

Keywords: cardiovascular disease policy model, cost-effectiveness analysis, hypertension, systematic review, twelve major cardiovascular events

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Authors: Peter Burggräf, Matthias Dannapfel, Hanno Voet, Patrick-Benjamin Bök, Jérôme Uelpenich, Julian Hoppe

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The increasing digitalization of value chains can help companies to handle rising complexity in their processes and thereby reduce the steadily increasing planning and control effort in order to raise performance limits. Due to technological advances, companies face the challenge of smart value chains for the purpose of improvements in productivity, handling the increasing time and cost pressure and the need of individualized production. Therefore, companies need to ensure quick and flexible decisions to create self-optimizing processes and, consequently, to make their production more efficient. Lean production, as the most commonly used paradigm for complexity reduction, reaches its limits when it comes to variant flexible production and constantly changing market and environmental conditions. To lift performance limits, which are inbuilt in current value chains, new methods and tools must be applied. Digitalization provides the potential to derive these new methods and tools. However, companies lack the experience to harmonize different digital technologies. There is no practicable framework, which instructs the transformation of current value chains into digital pervasive value chains. Current research shows that a connection between lean production and digitalization exists. This link is based on factors such as people, technology and organization. In this paper, the introduced method for the determination of digitally pervasive value chains takes the factors people, technology and organization into account and extends existing approaches by a new dimension. It is the first systematic approach for the digital transformation of lean production and consists of four steps: The first step of ‘target definition’ describes the target situation and defines the depth of the analysis with regards to the inspection area and the level of detail. The second step of ‘analysis of the value chain’ verifies the lean-ability of processes and lies in a special focus on the integration capacity of digital technologies in order to raise the limits of lean production. Furthermore, the ‘digital evaluation process’ ensures the usefulness of digital adaptions regarding their practicability and their integrability into the existing production system. Finally, the method defines actions to be performed based on the evaluation process and in accordance with the target situation. As a result, the validation and optimization of the proposed method in a German company from the electronics industry shows that the digital transformation of current value chains based on lean production achieves a raise of their inbuilt performance limits.

Keywords: digitalization, digital transformation, Industrie 4.0, lean production, value chain

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Authors: J. Becker, R. Arnold

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The design of distribution logistics has a decisive impact on a company's logistics costs and performance. Hence, such solutions make an essential contribution to corporate success. This article describes a decision support system for analyzing the potential of distribution logistics in terms of logistics costs and performance. In contrast to previous procedures of business process re-engineering (BPR), this method maps distribution logistics holistically under variable distribution structures. Combined with qualitative measures the decision support system will contribute to a more efficient design of distribution logistics.

Keywords: decision support system, distribution logistics, potential analyses, supply chain management

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Authors: Dilip Depan, Austin Simoneaux, William Chirdon, Ahmed Khattab

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In this study, we present a novel approach to synthesize polymer nanocomposites with nanohybrid shish-kebab architecture (NHSK). For this low-density and high density polyethylene (PE) was crystallized on various carbon nano-fillers using a novel and convenient method to prepare high-yield NHSK. Polymer crystals grew epitaxially on carbon nano-fillers using a solution crystallization method. The mixture of polymer and carbon fillers in xylene was flocculated and precipitated in ethanol to improve the product yield. Carbon nanofillers of varying diameter were also used as a nucleating template for polymer crystallization. The morphology of the prepared nanocomposites was characterized scanning electron microscopy (SEM), while differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) was used to quantify the amount of crystalline polymer. Interestingly, whatever the diameter of the carbon nanofiller is, the lamellae of PE is always perpendicular to the long axis of nanofiller. Surface area analysis was performed using BET. Our results indicated that carbon nanofillers of varying diameter can be used to effectively nucleate the crystallization of polymer. The effect of molecular weight and concentration of the polymer was discussed on the basis of chain mobility and crystallization capability of the polymer matrix. Our work shows a facile, rapid, yet high-yield production method to form polymer nanocomposites to reveal application potential of NHSK architecture.

Keywords: carbon nanotubes, polyethylene, nanohybrid shish-kebab, crystallization, morphology

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Authors: Zarabizan Zakaria, Syuhaida Ismail, Aminah Md. Yusof

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Project management process starts from the planning stage up to the stage of completion (handover of buildings, preparation of the final accounts and the closing balance). This process is not easy to implement efficiently and effectively. The issue of delays in construction is a major problem for construction projects. These delays have been blamed mainly on inefficient traditional construction practices that continue to dominate the current industry. This is due to several factors, such as environments of construction technology, sophisticated design and customer demands that are constantly changing and influencing, either directly or indirectly, the practice of management. Among the identified influences are physical environment, social environment, information environment, political and moral atmosphere. Therefore, this paper is emerged to determine the problem and issues in the final account closing in construction projects, and it establishes the need to embrace Supply Chain Management (SCM) and then elucidates the need and strategies for the development of a delay reduction framework. At the same time, this paper provides effective measures to avoid or at least reduce the delay to the optimum level. Allowing problems in the closure declaration to occur without proper monitoring and control can leave negative impact on the cost and time of delivery to the end user. Besides, it can also affect the reputation or image of the agency/department that manages the implementation of a contract and consequently may reduce customer's trust towards the agencies/departments. It is anticipated that the findings reported in this paper could address root delay contributors and apply SCM tools for their mitigation for the better development of construction project.

Keywords: final account closing, construction project, construction delay, supply chain management

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Authors: Seyyed Mohammad Amin Mousavi Sagharchi, Alireza Mahmoudi Nasab, Tim Bakker

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Introduction: Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) is the most intelligent bacterium that existed in the world to our best knowledge. This bacterium can cause tuberculosis (TB) which is responsible for its spread speed and murder of millions of people around the world. MTB has the practical function to escape from anti-tuberculosis drugs (AT), for this purpose, it handles some mutations in the main genes and creates new patterns for inhibited genes. Method and materials: Researchers have their best tries to safely isolate MTB from the sputum specimens of 35 patients in some hospitals in the Tehran province and detect MTB by culture on Löwenstein-Jensen (LJ) medium and microscopic examination. DNA was extracted from the established bacterial colony by enzymatic extraction method. It was amplified by the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) method, reverse hybridization, and evaluation for detection of resistance genes; generally, researchers apply GenoType MTBDRplus assay. Results: Investigations of results declare us that 21 of the isolated specimens (about 60%) have mutation in rpoB gene, which resisted to rifampicin (most prevalence), and 8 of them (about 22.8%) have mutation in katG or inhA genes which resisted to isoniazid. Also, 4 of them (about 11.4%) don't have any mutation, and 2 of them (about 5.7%) have mutation in every three genes, which makes them resistant to the two drugs mentioned above. Conclusion: Rifampicin and isoniazid are two essential AT that using in the first line of treatment. Resistance in rpoB, and katG, and inhA genes related to mentioned drugs lead to ineffective treatment.

Keywords: mycobacterium tuberculosis, tuberculosis, drug resistance, isoniazid, rifampicin

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Authors: C. Castro-Egler, A. Durán-Escalante, A. García-González

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This paper presents a method to generate a finite element model of the human auditory inner ear system. The geometric model has been realized using 2D images from a virtual model of temporal bones. A point cloud has been gotten manually from those images to construct a whole mesh with hexahedral elements. The main difference with the predecessor models is the spiral shape of the cochlea with its three scales completely defined: scala tympani, scala media and scala vestibuli; which are separate by basilar membrane and Reissner membrane. To validate this model, numerical simulations have been realised with two models: an isolated inner ear and a whole model of human auditory system. Ideal conditions of displacement are applied over the oval window in the isolated Inner Ear model. The whole model is made up of the outer auditory channel, the tympani, the ossicular chain, and the inner ear. The boundary condition for the whole model is 1Pa over the auditory channel entrance. The numerical simulations by FEM have been done using a harmonic analysis with a frequency range between 100-10.000 Hz with an interval of 100Hz. The following results have been carried out: basilar membrane displacement; the scala media pressure according to the cochlea length and the transfer function of the middle ear normalized with the pressure in the tympanic membrane. The basilar membrane displacements and the pressure in the scala media make it possible to validate the response in frequency of the basilar membrane.

Keywords: finite elements method, human auditory system model, numerical analysis, 3D modelling cochlea

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Authors: Hua Jin, Il Kim

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The biocompatible tadpole-shaped polypeptides with one cyclic polypeptides ring and two alkyl chain tails were synthesized by N-heterocyclic carbine (NHC)-mediated ring-opening polymerization (ROP) of α-amino acid N-carboxyanhydrides (NCAs). First, the NHC precursor, denoted as [NHC(H)][HCO₃], with two alkyl chains at the nitrogen was prepared by a simple anion metathesis of imidazole(in)ium chlorides with KHCO₃. Then NHC releasing from the [NHC(H)][HCO₃] directly initiated the ROP of NCA to produce the cyclic polypeptides. Finally, the tadpole-shaped polypeptides with two regulable tails were obtained. The target polypeptides were characterized by nuclear magnetic resonance spectrum (1H NMR), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR), gel permeation chromatography (GPC) and matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization-time of flight mass spectra (MALDI-TOF MS). This pioneering approach simplifies the synthesis procedures of tadpole-shaped polypeptides compared to other methods, which usually requires specific intramolecular ring-closure reaction.

Keywords: cyclic polypeptides, α-amino acid N-carboxyanhydrides, N-heterocyclic carbene, ring-opening polymerization, tadpole-shaped

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Authors: Ali Kassem, Aly Taha, Abeer Hassan, Kazuhide Higuchi

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Introduction: Trans arterial chemoembolization (TACE) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is usually followed by hepatic dysfunction that limits its efficacy. L-carnitine is recently studied as hepatoprotective agent. Our aim is to evaluate the L-carnitine effects against the deterioration of liver functions after TACE. Method: 53 patients with intermediate stage HCC were assigned into two groups; L-carnitine group (26 patients) who received L-carnitine 300 mg tablet twice daily from 2 weeks before to 12 weeks after TACE and control group (27 patients) without L-carnitine therapy. 28 of studied patients received branched chain amino acids granules. Results: There were significant differences between L-carnitine Vs. control group in mean serum albumin change from baseline to 1 week and 4 weeks after TACE (p < 0.05). L-Carnitine maintained Child-Pugh score at 1 week after TACE and exhibited improvement at 4 weeks after TACE (p < 0.01 Vs 1 week after TACE). Control group has significant Child-Pugh score deterioration from baseline to 1 week after TACE (p < 0.05) and 12 weeks after TACE (p < 0.05). There were significant differences between L-carnitine and control groups in mean Child-Pugh score change from baseline to 4 weeks (p < 0.05) and 12 weeks after TACE (p < 0.05). L-carnitine displayed improvement in (PT) from baseline to 1 week, 4 w (p < 0.05) and 12 weeks after TACE. PT in control group declined less than baseline along all follow up intervals. Total bilirubin in L-carnitine group decreased at 1 week post TACE while in control group, it significantly increased at 1 week (p = 0.01). ALT and C-reactive protein elevation were suppressed at 1 week after TACE in Lcarnitine group. The hepatoprotective effects of L-carnitine were enhanced by concomitant use of branched chain amino acids. Conclusion: L-carnitine and BCAA combination therapy offer a novel supportive strategy after TACE in HCC patients.

Keywords: hepatocellular carcinoma, L-carnitine, liver functions , trans-arterial embolization

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Authors: Maziyar Nouraee

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Electronic markets in recent decades contribute remarkably in business transactions. Many organizations consider traditional ways of trade non-economical and therefore they do trade only through electronic markets. There are different categorizations of electronic markets functions. In one classification, functions of electronic markets are categorized into classes as information, transactions, and value added. In the present paper, effects of the three classes on the two major elements of the supply chain management are measured. The two elements are decrease in the product unit cost and reduction in response time to the customer. The results of the current research show that among nine minor elements related to the three classes of electronic markets functions, six factors and three factors influence on reduction of the product unit cost and reduction of response time to the customer, respectively.

Keywords: electronic commerce, electronic market, B2B trade, supply chain management

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Authors: Bill Wang, Paul Childerhouse, Yuanfei Kang

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Purpose: The research is to extend resource orchestration theory (ROT) into supply chain management (SCM) area to investigate the dyadic relationships at both individual and organizational levels in supply chain integration (SCI). Also, we try to explore the interaction mechanism between inter-personal relationships (IPRs) and inter-organizational (IORs) during the whole SCI process. Methodology/approach: The research employed an exploratory multiple case study approach of four New Zealand companies. The data was collected via semi-structured interviews with top, middle, and lower level managers and operators from different departments of both suppliers and customers triangulated with company archival data. Findings: The research highlights the important role of both IPRs and IORs in the whole SCI process. Both IPRs and IORs are valuable, inimitable resources but IORs are formal and exterior while IPRs are informal and subordinated. In the initial stage of SCI process, IPRs are seen as key resources antecedents to IOR building while three IPRs dimensions work differently: personal credibility acts as an icebreaker to strengthen the confidence forming IORs, and personal affection acts as a gatekeeper, whilst personal communication expedites the IORs process. In the maintenance and development stage, IORs and IPRs interact each other continuously: good interaction between IPRs and IORs can facilitate SCI process while the bad interaction between IPRs can damage the SCI process. On the other hand, during the life-cycle of SCI process, IPRs can facilitate the formation, development of IORs while IORs development can cultivate the ties of IPRs. Out of the three dimensions of IPRs, Personal communication plays a more important role to develop IORs than personal credibility and personal affection. Originality/value: This research contributes to ROT in supply chain management literature by highlighting the interaction of IPRs and IORs in SCI. The intangible resources and capabilities of three dimensions of IPRs need to be orchestrated and nurtured to achieve efficient and effective IORs in SCI. Also, IPRs and IORs need to be orchestrated in terms of breadth, depth, and life-cycle of whole SCI process. Our study provides further insight into the rarely explored inter-personal level of SCI. Managerial implications: Our research provides top management with further evidence of the significance roles of IPRs at different levels when working with trading partners. This highlights the need to actively manage and develop these soft IPRs skills as an intangible competitive resource. Further, the research identifies when staff with specific skills and connections should be utilized during the different stages of building and maintaining inter-organizational ties. More importantly, top management needs to orchestrate and balance the resources of IPRs and IORs.

Keywords: case study, inter-organizational relationships, inter-personal relationships, resource orchestration, supply chain integration

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Authors: Cristóbal Moënne-Loccoz, Rodrigo C. Vergara, Vladimir López, Domingo Mery, Diego Cosmelli

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Our daily interaction with computational interfaces is plagued of situations in which we go from inexperienced users to experts through self-motivated exploration of the same task. In many of these interactions, we must learn to find our way through a sequence of decisions and actions before obtaining the desired result. For instance, when drawing cash from an ATM machine, choices are presented in a step-by-step fashion so that a specific sequence of actions must be performed in order to produce the expected outcome. But, as they become experts in the use of such interfaces, do users adopt specific search and learning strategies? Moreover, if so, can we use this information to follow the process of expertise development and, eventually, predict future actions? This would be a critical step towards building truly adaptive interfaces that can facilitate interaction at different moments of the learning curve. Furthermore, it could provide a window into potential mechanisms underlying decision-making behavior in real world scenarios. Here we tackle this question using a simple game interface that instantiates a 4-level binary decision tree (BDT) sequential decision-making task. Participants have to explore the interface and discover an underlying concept-icon mapping in order to complete the game. We develop a Hidden Markov Model (HMM)-based approach whereby a set of stereotyped, hierarchically related search behaviors act as hidden states. Using this model, we are able to track the decision-making process as participants explore, learn and develop expertise in the use of the interface. Our results show that partitioning the problem space into such stereotyped strategies is sufficient to capture a host of exploratory and learning behaviors. Moreover, using the modular architecture of stereotyped strategies as a Mixture of Experts, we are able to simultaneously ask the experts about the user's most probable future actions. We show that for those participants that learn the task, it becomes possible to predict their next decision, above chance, approximately halfway through the game. Our long-term goal is, on the basis of a better understanding of real-world decision-making processes, to inform the construction of interfaces that can establish dynamic conversations with their users in order to facilitate the development of expertise.

Keywords: behavioral modeling, expertise acquisition, hidden markov models, sequential decision-making

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Authors: Usama Abdulwahab, Mohammed Wahab

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This paper presents the application of uncapacitated facility location problems (UFLP) and 1-median problems to support decision making in blood supply chain networks. A plethora of factors make blood supply-chain networks a complex, yet vital problem for the regional blood bank. These factors are rapidly increasing demand; criticality of the product; strict storage and handling requirements; and the vastness of the theater of operations. As in the UFLP, facilities can be opened at any of $m$ predefined locations with given fixed costs. Clients have to be allocated to the open facilities. In classical location models, the allocation cost is the distance between a client and an open facility. In this model, the costs are the allocation cost, transportation costs, and inventory costs. In order to address this problem the median algorithm is used to analyze inventory, evaluate supply chain status, monitor performance metrics at different levels of granularity, and detect potential problems and opportunities for improvement. The Euclidean distance data for some Ontario cities (demand nodes) are used to test the developed algorithm. Sitation software, lagrangian relaxation algorithm, and branch and bound heuristics are used to solve this model. Computational experiments confirm the efficiency of the proposed approach. Compared to the existing modeling and solution methods, the median algorithm approach not only provides a more general modeling framework but also leads to efficient solution times in general.

Keywords: approximate dynamic programming, facility location, perishable product, inventory model, blood platelet, P-median problem

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Authors: Kedar J. Mahadeshwar

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Concept introduction: This paper talks about how an innovative cloud based analytics enabled solution that could address a major industry challenge that is approaching all of us globally faster than what one would think. The world of supply chain for drugs and devices is changing today at a rapid speed. In the US, the Drug Supply Chain Security Act (DSCSA) is a new law for Tracing, Verification and Serialization phasing in starting Jan 1, 2015 for manufacturers, repackagers, wholesalers and pharmacies / clinics. Similarly we are seeing pressures building up in Europe, China and many countries that would require an absolute traceability of every drug and device end to end. Companies (both manufacturers and distributors) can use this opportunity not only to be compliant but to differentiate themselves over competition. And moreover a country such as UAE can be the leader in coming up with a global solution that brings innovation in this industry. Problem definition and timing: The problem of counterfeit drug market, recognized by FDA, causes billions of dollars loss every year. Even in UAE, the concerns over prevalence of counterfeit drugs, which enter through ports such as Dubai remains a big concern, as per UAE pharma and healthcare report, Q1 2015. Distribution of drugs and devices involves multiple processes and systems that do not talk to each other. Consumer confidence is at risk due to this lack of traceability and any leading provider is at risk of losing its reputation. Globally there is an increasing pressure by government and regulatory bodies to trace serial numbers and lot numbers of every drug and medical devices throughout a supply chain. Though many of large corporations use some form of ERP (enterprise resource planning) software, it is far from having a capability to trace a lot and serial number beyond the enterprise and making this information easily available real time. Solution: The solution here talks about a service provider that allows all subscribers to take advantage of this service. The solution allows a service provider regardless of its physical location, to host this cloud based traceability and analytics solution of millions of distribution transactions that capture lots of each drug and device. The solution platform will capture a movement of every medical device and drug end to end from its manufacturer to a hospital or a doctor through a series of distributor or retail network. The platform also provides advanced analytics solution to do some intelligent reporting online. Why Dubai? Opportunity exists with huge investment done in Dubai healthcare city also with using technology and infrastructure to attract more FDI to provide such a service. UAE and countries similar will be facing this pressure from regulators globally in near future. But more interestingly, Dubai can attract such innovators/companies to run and host such a cloud based solution and become a hub of such traceability globally.

Keywords: cloud, pharmaceutical, supply chain, tracking

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Authors: Mohammad Reza Akhavan Khaleghi

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This paper shows changes done to the Reduced Finite Element Method (RFEM) that its result will be the most powerful numerical method that has been proposed so far (some forms of this method are so powerful that they can approximate the most complex equations simply Laplace equation!). Finite Element Method (FEM) is a powerful numerical method that has been used successfully for the solution of the existing problems in various scientific and engineering fields such as its application in CFD. Many algorithms have been expressed based on FEM, but none have been used in popular CFD software. In this section, full monopoly is according to Finite Volume Method (FVM) due to better efficiency and adaptability with the physics of problems in comparison with FEM. It doesn't seem that FEM could compete with FVM unless it was fundamentally changed. This paper shows those changes and its result will be a powerful method that has much better performance in all subjects in comparison with FVM and another computational method. This method is not to compete with the finite volume method but to replace it.

Keywords: reduced finite element method, new computational package, new finite element formulation, new higher-order form, new isogeometric analysis

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Authors: E. Behmanesh, J. Pannek

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The distribution-allocation problem is known as one of the most comprehensive strategic decision. In real-world cases, it is impossible to solve a distribution-allocation problem in traditional ways with acceptable time. Hence researchers develop efficient non-traditional techniques for the large-term operation of the whole supply chain. These techniques provide near-optimal solutions particularly for large scales test problems. This paper, presents an integrated supply chain model which is flexible in the delivery path. As the solution methodology, we apply a memetic algorithm with a novelty in population presentation. To illustrate the performance of the proposed memetic algorithm, LINGO optimization software serves as a comparison basis for small size problems. In large size cases that we are dealing with in the real world, the Genetic algorithm as the second metaheuristic algorithm is considered to compare the results and show the efficiency of the memetic algorithm.

Keywords: integrated logistics network, flexible path, memetic algorithm, genetic algorithm

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Authors: Michael Kenomore, Mohamed Hassan, Amjad Shah, Hom Dhakal

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Shale gas reservoirs have been of greater importance compared to shale oil reservoirs since 2009 and with the current nature of the oil market, understanding the technical and economic performance of shale gas reservoirs is of importance. Using the Barnett shale as a case study, an economic model was developed to quantify the effect of finding and development costs and gas prices on the basins in the Barnett shale using net present value as an evaluation parameter. A rate of return of 20% and a payback period of 60 months or less was used as the investment hurdle in the model. The Barnett was split into four basins (Strawn Basin, Ouachita Folded Belt, Forth-worth Syncline and Bend-arch Basin) with analysis conducted on each of the basin to provide a holistic outlook. The dataset consisted of only horizontal wells that started production from 2008 to at most 2015 with 1835 wells coming from the strawn basin, 137 wells from the Ouachita folded belt, 55 wells from the bend-arch basin and 724 wells from the forth-worth syncline. The data was analyzed initially on Microsoft Excel to determine the estimated ultimate recoverable (EUR). The range of EUR from each basin were loaded in the Palisade Risk software and a log normal distribution typical of Barnett shale wells was fitted to the dataset. Monte Carlo simulation was then carried out over a 1000 iterations to obtain a cumulative distribution plot showing the probabilistic distribution of EUR for each basin. From the cumulative distribution plot, the P10, P50 and P90 EUR values for each basin were used in the economic model. Gas production from an individual well with a EUR similar to the calculated EUR was chosen and rescaled to fit the calculated EUR values for each basin at the respective percentiles i.e. P10, P50 and P90. The rescaled production was entered into the economic model to determine the effect of the finding and development cost and gas price on the net present value (10% discount rate/year) as well as also determine the scenario that satisfied the proposed investment hurdle. The finding and development costs used in this paper (assumed to consist only of the drilling and completion costs) were £1 million, £2 million and £4 million while the gas price was varied from $2/MCF-$13/MCF based on Henry Hub spot prices from 2008-2015. One of the major findings in this study was that wells in the bend-arch basin were least economic, higher gas prices are needed in basins containing non-core counties and 90% of the Barnet shale wells were not economic at all finding and development costs irrespective of the gas price in all the basins. This study helps to determine the percentage of wells that are economic at different range of costs and gas prices, determine the basins that are most economic and the wells that satisfy the investment hurdle.

Keywords: shale gas, Barnett shale, unconventional gas, estimated ultimate recoverable

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Authors: O. Acan, Y. Keskin

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In this study, we will carry out a comparative study between the reduced differential transform method, the adomian decomposition method, the variational iteration method and the homotopy analysis method. These methods are used in many fields of engineering. This is been achieved by handling a kind of 2-Dimensional and forth-order partial differential equations called the Kuramoto–Sivashinsky equations. Three numerical examples have also been carried out to validate and demonstrate efficiency of the four methods. Furthermost, it is shown that the reduced differential transform method has advantage over other methods. This method is very effective and simple and could be applied for nonlinear problems which used in engineering.

Keywords: reduced differential transform method, adomian decomposition method, variational iteration method, homotopy analysis method

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Authors: Abeer M. Algeblawi

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Fifteen isolates of Agrobacterium tumefaciens were obtained from crown gall samples collected from six locations (Tripoli, Alzahra, Ain-Zara, Alzawia, Alazezia in Libya) from Grape (Vitis vinifera L.), Pear (Pyrus communis L.), Peach (Prunus persica L.) and Alexandria in Egypt from Guava (Psidium guajava L.) trees, Artichoke (Cynara cardunculus L.) and Sugar beet (Beta vulgaris L.). Total DNA was extracted from the eight isolates as well as the identification of six isolates used into Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) analysis and Random Amplified Polymorphic DNA (RAPD) technique were used. High similarity (55.5%) was observed among the eight A. tumefaciens isolates (Agro1, Agro2, Agro3, Agro4, Agro5, Agro6, Agro7, and Agro8). The PCR amplification products were resulting from the use of two specific primers (virD2A-virD2C). Analysis induction six isolates of A. tumefaciens obtained from different hosts. A visible band was specific to A. tumefaciens of (220 bp, 224 bp) and 338 bp produced with total DNA extracted from bacterial cells.

Keywords: Agrobacterium tumefaciens, crown gall, identification, molecular characterization, PCR, RAPD

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Authors: Mehwish Jawaad

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Purpose: The concept of GrSCM (Green Supply Chain Management) in the academic and research field is still thought to be in the development stage especially in Asian Emerging Economies. The purpose of this paper is to contribute significantly to the first wave of empirical investigation on GrSCM Practices and Firm Performance measures in Pakistan. The aim of this research is to develop a more holistic approach towards investigating the impact of Green Supply Chain Management Practices (Ecodesign, Internal Environmental Management systems, Green Distribution, Green Purchasing and Cooperation with Customers) on multiple dimensions of Firm Performance Measures (Economic Performance, Environmental Performance and Operational Performance) with a mediating role of Investment Recovery and Competitiveness. This paper also serves as an initiative to identify if the relationship between Investment Recovery and Firm Performance Measures is mediated by Competitiveness. Design/ Methodology/Approach: This study is based on survey Data collected from 272, ISO (14001) Certified Textile Firms Based in Lahore, Faisalabad, and Karachi which are involved in Spinning, Dyeing, Printing or Bleaching. A Theoretical model was developed incorporating the constructs representing Green Activities and Firm Performance Measures of a firm. The data was analyzed using Partial Least Square Structural Equation Modeling. Senior and Mid-level managers provided the data reflecting the degree to which their organizations deal with both internal and external stakeholders to improve the environmental sustainability of their supply chain. Findings: Of the 36 proposed Hypothesis, 20 are considered valid and significant. The statistics result reveal that GrSCM practices positively impact Environmental Performance followed by Economic and Operational Performance. Investment Recovery acts as a strong mediator between Intra organizational Green activities and performance outcomes. The relationship of Reverse Logistics influencing outcomes is significantly mediated by Competitiveness. The pressure originating from customers exert significant positive influence on the firm to adopt Green Practices consequently leading to higher outcomes. Research Contribution/Originality: Underpinning the Resource dependence theory and as a first wave of investigating the impact of Green Supply chain on performance outcomes in Pakistan, this study intends to make a prominent mark in the field of research. Investment and Competitiveness together are tested as a mediator for the first time in this arena. Managerial implications: Practitioner is provided with a framework for assessing the synergistic impact of GrSCM practices on performance. Upgradation of Accreditations and Audit Programs on regular basis are the need of the hour. Making the processes leaner with the sale of excess inventories and scrap helps the firm to work more efficiently and productively.

Keywords: economic performance, environmental performance, green supply chain management practices, operational performance, sustainability, a textile sector of Pakistan

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Authors: Yousef Abu Nahleh, Alhasan Hakami, Arun Kumar, Fugen Daver

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This study considers the problem of calculating safety stocks in disaster situations inventory systems that face demand uncertainties. Safety stocks are essential to make the supply chain, which is controlled by forecasts of customer needs, in response to demand uncertainties and to reach predefined goal service levels. To solve the problem of uncertainties due to the disaster situations affecting the industry sector, the concept of Emergency Safety Stock (ESS) was proposed. While there exists a huge body of literature on determining safety stock levels, this literature does not address the problem arising due to the disaster and dealing with the situations. In this paper, the problem of improving the Order Quantity Model to deal with uncertainty of demand due to disasters is managed by incorporating a new idea called ESS which is based on the probability of disaster occurrence and uses probability matrix calculated from the historical data.

Keywords: Emergency Safety Stocks, safety stocks, Order Quantity Model, supply chain

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Authors: Ergun Kaya

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Apple mosaic virus (ApMV) is an ilarvirus causing harmful damages and product loses in many plant species. Because of xylem and phloem vessels absence, plant meristem tissues used for meristem cultures are virus-free, but sometimes only meristem cultures are not sufficient for virus elimination. Cryotherapy, a new method based on cryogenic techniques, is used for virus elimination. In this technique, 0.1-0.3mm meristems are excised from organized shoot apex of a selected in vitro donor plant and these meristems are frozen in liquid nitrogen (-196 °C) using suitable cryogenic technique. The aim of this work was to develop an efficient procedure for ApMV-free hazelnut via cryotherapy technique and confirmation of virus-free plants using Reverse Transcriptase-PCR technique. 100% virus free plantlets were obtained using droplet-vitrification method involved cold hardening in vitro cultures of hazelnut, 24 hours sucrose preculture of meristems on MS medium supplemented with 0.4M sucrose, and a 90 min PVS2 treatment in droplets.

Keywords: droplet vitrification, hazelnut, liquid nitrogen, PVS2

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Authors: H. M. Wang, C. J. Chang

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As the threat of global climate change is more seriously, "net zero emissions by 2050" has become a common global goal. In order to reduce the consumption of petrochemical raw materials and reduce carbon emissions, low-carbon fiber materials have become key materials in the future global textile supply chain. This project uses polyolefin raw materials to modify through synthesis and amination to develop low-temperature dyeable polypropylene fibers, endow them with low-temperature dyeability and high color fastness that can be combined with acid dyes, and improve the problem of low coloring strength. The color fastness to washing can reach the requirement of commerce with 3.5 level or more. Therefore, we realize the entry of polypropylene fiber into the clothing textile supply chain, replace existing fiber raw materials, solve the problem of domestic chemical fiber, textile, and clothing industry's plight of no low-carbon alternative new material sources, and provide the textile industry with a solution to achieve the goal of net zero emissions in 2050.

Keywords: acid dyes, dyeing, low-temperature, polypropylene fiber

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Authors: Rajinder Singh, Ram Valluru

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Chain Ladder (CL) method, Expected Loss Ratio (ELR) method and Bornhuetter-Ferguson (BF) method, in addition to more complex transition-rate modeling, are commonly used actuarial reserving methods in general insurance. There is limited published research about their relative performance in the context of Mortgage Insurance (MI). In our experience, these traditional techniques pose unique challenges and do not provide stable claim estimates for medium to longer term liabilities. The relative strengths and weaknesses among various alternative approaches revolve around: stability in the recent loss development pattern, sufficiency and reliability of loss development data, and agreement/disagreement between reported losses to date and ultimate loss estimate. CL method results in volatile reserve estimates, especially for accident periods with little development experience. The ELR method breaks down especially when ultimate loss ratios are not stable and predictable. While the BF method provides a good tradeoff between the loss development approach (CL) and ELR, the approach generates claim development and ultimate reserves that are disconnected from the ever-to-date (ETD) development experience for some accident years that have more development experience. Further, BF is based on subjective a priori assumption. The fundamental shortcoming of these methods is their inability to model exogenous factors, like the economy, which impact various cohorts at the same chronological time but at staggered points along their life-time development. This paper proposes an alternative approach of parametrizing the loss development curve and using logistic regression to generate the ultimate loss estimate for each homogeneous group (accident year or delinquency period). The methodology was tested on an actual MI claim development dataset where various cohorts followed a sigmoidal trend, but levels varied substantially depending upon the economic and operational conditions during the development period spanning over many years. The proposed approach provides the ability to indirectly incorporate such exogenous factors and produce more stable loss forecasts for reserving purposes as compared to the traditional CL and BF methods.

Keywords: actuarial loss reserving techniques, logistic regression, parametric function, volatility

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Authors: Axel Thallemer, Martin Danzer, Dominik Diensthuber, Aleksandar Kostadinov, Bernhard Rogler

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Nature has always inspired the creative mind, to a lesser or greater extent. Introduced around the 1950s, Biomimetics served as a systematic method to treat the natural world as a ‘pattern book’ for technical solutions with the aim to create innovative products. Unfortunately, this technique is prone to failure when performed as a mere reverse engineering of a natural system or appearance. Contrary to that, a solution which looks at the principles of a natural design, promises a better outcome. One such example is the here presented case study, which shows the design process of three distinctive grippers. The devices have biomimetic properties on two levels. Firstly, they use a kinematic chain found in beaks and secondly, they have a biomimetic structural geometry, which was realized using additive manufacturing. In a next step, the manufacturing method was evaluated to estimate its efficiency for commercial production. The results show that the fabrication procedure is still in its early stage and thus it is not able to guarantee satisfactory results. To summarize the study, we claim that a novel solution can be derived using principles from nature, however, for the solution to be actualized successfully, there are parameters which are beyond reach for designers. Nonetheless, industrial designers can contribute to product innovation using biomimetics.

Keywords: biomimetics, innovation, design process, additive manufacturing

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Authors: Rajaram Mahat, Roshan Khadka

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Nepal has remained a land of diverse people and culture consisting more than hundred ethnic and caste groups with 92 different languages. Each ethnic and cast group have their own common culture. Kathmandu, the capital city of Nepal is one of the multi-ethnic, lingual and cultural ancient places. Dozens of monuments with the history of more than thousand years are located in Kathmandu Valley. More or less all of the heritage site have been affected by devastating earthquake in April and May 2015. This study shows the most popular tourist and pilgrim’s destination like Kathmandu Darbar Square, Bhaktapur Darbarsquare, Patan Darbar Square, Swayambhunath temple complex, Dharahara Tower, Pasupatinath Hindu Religious Complex etc. have been massively destroyed. This paper analyses the socio economic consequence to the community people of world heritage site after devastating earthquake in Kathmandu Valley. Initial findings indicate that domestic and international current tourists flow have decreased by 41% and average 23% of local craft shop, curio shop, hotel, restaurant, grocery store, footpath shop including employment of tourist guide have been closed down as well as travel & tour business has decreased by 12%. Supply chain effect is noticeably shown in particular collapsed world heritage sites. It has also seen negative impact to National economy as well. This study has recommended to government of Nepal and other donor to reconstruct the collapse world heritage sites and to preserve the other existing world heritage site with treatment of earthquake resist structure as soon as possible.

Keywords: world heritage, community, earthquake, supply chain effect

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Authors: Elvis Adam Alhassan, Kaiyu Tian, Akos Konadu, Ernest Zamanah, Michael Jackson Adjabui, Ibrahim Justice Musah, Esther Agyeiwaa Owusu, Emmanuel K. A. Agyeman

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In this paper, how to solve simultaneous equations using the Elvis improved method is shown. The Elvis improved method says; to make one variable in the first equation the subject; make the same variable in the second equation the subject; equate the results and simplify to obtain the value of the unknown variable; put the value of the variable found into one equation from the first or second steps and simplify for the remaining unknown variable. The difference between our Elvis improved method and the substitution method is that: with Elvis improved method, the same variable is made the subject in both equations, and the two resulting equations equated, unlike the substitution method where one variable is made the subject of only one equation and substituted into the other equation. After describing the Elvis improved method, findings from 100 secondary students and the views of 5 secondary tutors to demonstrate the effectiveness of the method are presented. The study's purpose is proved by hypothetical examples.

Keywords: simultaneous equations, substitution method, elimination method, graphical method, Elvis improved method

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Authors: Rahim Shahrokhi, Junboum Park

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Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances (PFASs) are environmentally persistent halogenated hydrocarbons that have been widely used in many industrial and commercial applications. Recently, contaminating the soil and groundwater due to the ubiquity of PFAS in environments has raised great concern. Adsorption technology is one of the most promising methods for PFAS removal. Chitosan is a biopolymer substance with abundant amine and hydroxyl functional groups, which render it a good adsorbent. This study has tried to enhance the adsorption capacity of chitosan by grafting more amine functional groups on its surface for the removal of two long (PFOA and PFOS) and two short-chain (PFBA, PFBS) PFAS substances from the aqueous phase. A series of batch adsorption tests have been performed to evaluate the adsorption capacity of the used sorbent. Also, the sorbent was analyzed by SEM, FT-IR, zeta potential, and XRD tests. The results demonstrated that both chitosan beads have good potential for adsorbing short and long-chain PFAS from the aqueous phase.

Keywords: PFAS, chitosan beads, adsorption, grafted chitosan

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Authors: Xiuxia Sun, Yan Jin, Zilong Liu, Shiming Wei

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As a critical mineral component of shale, illite is essential in oil exploration and development due to its surface hydration characteristics and action mechanism. This paper, starting from the perspective of the molecular structure of organic matter, uses molecular dynamics simulation technology to deeply explore the interaction mechanism between organic molecules and the illite surface. In the study, we thoroughly considered the forces such as van der Waals force, electrostatic force, and steric hindrance and constructed an illite crystal model covering C8-C18 modifiers. Subsequently, we systematically analyzed surfactants' adsorption behavior and hydration characteristics with different alkyl chain numbers, lengths, and concentrations on the illite surface. The simulation results show that surfactant molecules with shorter alkyl chains present a lateral monolayer or inclined double-layer arrangement on the illite surface, and these two arrangements may coexist under different concentration conditions. In addition, with the increase in the number of alkyl chains, the interlayer spacing of illite increases significantly. In contrast, the change in alkyl chain length has a limited effect on surface properties. It is worth noting that the change in functional group structure has a particularly significant effect on the wettability of the illite surface, and its influence even exceeds the change in the alkyl chain structure. This discovery gives us a new perspective on understanding and regulating the wetting properties. The results obtained are consistent with the XRD analysis and wettability experimental data in this paper, further confirming the reliability of the research conclusions. This study deepened our understanding of illite's hydration characteristics and mechanism. We provided new ideas and directions for the molecular design and application development of oilfield chemicals.

Keywords: illite, surfactant, hydration, wettability, adsorption

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