Search results for: standardized precipitation index
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 4869

Search results for: standardized precipitation index

3939 Assessment of Water Quality of Euphrates River at Babylon Governorate, for Drinking, Irrigation and general, Using Water Quality Index (Canadian Version) (CCMEWQI)

Authors: Amer Obaid Saud

Abstract:

Water quality index (WQI) is considered as an effective tool in categorization of water resources for its quality and suitability for different uses. The Canadian version of water quality index (CCME WQI) which based on the comparison of the water quality parameters to regulatory standards and give a single value to the water quality of a source was applied in this study to assess the water quality of Euphrates river in Iraq at Babylon Governorate north of Baghdad and determine its suitability for aquatic environment (GWQI), drinking water (PWSI) and irrigation(IWQI). Five stations were selected on the river in Babylon (Euphrates River/AL-Musiab, Hindia barrage, two stations at Hilla city and the fifth station at Al-Hshmeya north of Hilla. Fifteen water samples were collected every month during August 2013 to July 2014 at the study sites and analyzed for the physico-chemical parameters like (Temperature, pH, Electrical Conductivity, Total Dissolved Solids(TDS), Total Suspended Solids(TSS), Total Alkalinity, Total Hardness, Calcium and Magnesium Concentration, some of nutrient like Nitrite, Nitrate, Phosphate also the study of concentration of some heavy metals (Fe, Pb, Zn, Cu, Mn, and Cd) in water and comparison of measures to benchmarks such as guidelines and objectives to assess change in water quality. The result of Canadian version of(CCME .WQI) to assess the irrigation water quality (IWQI) of Euphrates river was (83-good) at site one during second seasonal period while the lowest was (66-Fair) in the second station during the fourth seasonal period, the values of potable water supply index (PWSI)that the highest value was (68-Fair) in the fifth site during the second period while the lowest value (42 -Poor) in the second site during the first seasonal period,the highest value for general water quality (GWQI) was (74-Fair) in site five during the second seasonal period, the lowest value (48-Marginal) in the second site during the first seasonal period. It was observed that the main cause of deterioration in water quality was due to the lack of, unprotected river sites ,high anthropogenic activities and direct discharge of industrial effluent.

Keywords: Babylon governorate, Canadian version, water quality, Euphrates river

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3938 Early Outcomes and Lessons from the Implementation of a Geriatric Hip Fracture Protocol at a Level 1 Trauma Center

Authors: Peter Park, Alfonso Ayala, Douglas Saeks, Jordan Miller, Carmen Flores, Karen Nelson

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Introduction Hip fractures account for more than 300,000 hospital admissions every year. Many present as fragility fractures in geriatric patients with multiple medical comorbidities. Standardized protocols for the multidisciplinary management of this patient population have been shown to improve patient outcomes. A hip fracture protocol was implemented at a Level I Trauma center with a focus on pre-operative medical optimization and early surgical care. This study evaluates the efficacy of that protocol, including the early transition period. Methods A retrospective review was performed of all patients ages 60 and older with isolated hip fractures who were managed surgically between 2020 and 2022. This included patients 1 year prior and 1 year following the implementation of a hip fracture protocol at a Level I Trauma center. Results 530 patients were identified: 249 patients were treated before, and 281 patients were treated after the protocol was instituted. There was no difference in mean age (p=0.35), gender (p=0.3), or Charlson Comorbidity Index (p=0.38) between the cohorts. Following the implementation of the protocol, there were observed increases in time to surgery (27.5h vs. 33.8h, p=0.01), hospital length of stay (6.3d vs. 9.7d, p<0.001), and ED LOS (5.1h vs. 6.2h, p<0.001). There were no differences in in-hospital mortality (2.01% pre vs. 3.20% post, p=0.39) and complication rates (25% pre vs 26% post, p=0.76). A trend towards improved outcomes was seen after the early transition period but failed to yield statistical significance. Conclusion Early medical management and surgical intervention are key determining factors affecting outcomes following fragility hip fractures. The implementation of a hip fracture protocol at this institution has not yet significantly affected these parameters. This could in part be due to the restrictions placed at this institution during the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite this, the time to OR pre-and post-implementation was quicker than figures reported elsewhere in literature. Further longitudinal data will be collected to determine the final influence of this protocol. Significance/Clinical Relevance Given the increasing number of elderly people and the high morbidity and mortality associated with hip fractures in this population finding cost effective ways to improve outcomes in the management of these injuries has the potential to have enormous positive impact for both patients and hospital systems.

Keywords: hip fracture, geriatric, treatment algorithm, preoperative optimization

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3937 Application of Vegetation Health Index for Drought Monitoring in the North-East Region of Nigeria

Authors: Abdulkadir I.

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Scientists have come to terms with the fact that climate change has been and is expected to cause a significant increase in the severity and frequency of drought events. The northeast region of Nigeria is one of the most, if not the most, affected regions by drought in the country. Therefore, it is on this note that the present study applied ArcGIS and XLSTAT Software and explored drought and its trend in the northeast region of the country using the vegetation health index (VHI), Mann-Kendal, and Sen’s slope between 2001 and 2020. The study also explored the areas that remained under drought and no-drought conditions at intervals of five years for the period under review. The result of Mann-Kendal (-0.07) and Sen’s slope (-0.19) revealed that there was a decreasing trend in VHI over the period under review. The result further showed that the period between 2010 and 2015 had a minimum area of no-drought conditions of about 24%, with Gombe State accounting for the lowest percentage among the six States, about 0.9% of the total area of no-drought conditions. The result further showed the areas that were under drought conditions between 2010 and 2015 represented about 9.1%, with Borno State accounting for the highest percentage among the six States, about 2.5% of the total area under drought conditions. The masked-out areas stood at 66.8%, with Borno State accounting for the highest percentage among the six States, about 20.2% of the total area under drought conditions. Therefore, collective efforts are needed to put in place sustainable land management in the affected areas so as to mitigate the sprawl of desertification in the region.

Keywords: climate change, drought, Mann Kendal, sustainable land management, vegetation health index

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3936 Salinity Response of Some Cowpea Genotypes in Germination of Periods

Authors: Meryem Aydin, Serdar Karadas, Ercan Ceyhan

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The research was conducted to determine effects of salt concentrations on emergence of cowpea genotypes. Trials were performed during the year of 2014 on the laboratory of Agricultural Faculty, Selcuk University. Emergency trial was set up according to “Randomized Plots Design” by two factors and four replications with three replications. Samandag, Akkiz-86, Karnikara and Sarigobek cowpea genotypes have been used as trial material in this study. Effects of the five doses of salt concentrations (control, 30 mM, 60 mM, 90 mM and 120 mM) on the ratio of emergency, speed of emergency, average time for emergency, index of sensibility were evaluated. Responses of the cowpea genotypes for salt concentrations were found different. Comparing to the control, all of the investigated characteristics on the cowpea genotypes showed significant reduction by depending on the increasing salt application. According to the effects of salt application, the cowpea genotypes Samandag and Karnikara were the most tolerant in respect to index of sensibility while the Sarigobek genotypes was the most sensitive.

Keywords: cowpea, Vigna sinensis, emergence, salt tolerant

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3935 Vertebral Pain Features in Women of Different Age Depending on Body Mass Index

Authors: Vladyslav Povoroznyuk, Tetiana Orlуk, Nataliia Dzerovych

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Introduction: Back pain is an extremely common health care problem worldwide. Many studies show a link between an obesity and risk of lower back pain. The aim is to study correlation and peculiarities of vertebral pain in women of different age depending on their anthropometric indicators. Materials: 1886 women aged 25-89 years were examined. The patients were divided into groups according to age (25-44, 45-59, 60-74, 75-89 years old) and body mass index (BMI: to 18.4 kg/m2 (underweight), 18.5-24.9 kg/m2 (normal), 25-30 kg/m2 (overweight) and more than 30.1 kg/m2 (obese). Methods: The presence and intensity of pain was evaluated in the thoracic and lumbar spine using a visual analogue scale (VAS). BMI is calculated by the standard formula based on body weight and height measurements. Statistical analysis was performed using parametric and nonparametric methods. Significant changes were considered as p <0.05. Results: The intensity of pain in the thoracic spine was significantly higher in the underweight women in the age groups of 25-44 years (p = 0.04) and 60-74 years (p=0.005). The intensity of pain in the lumbar spine was significantly higher in the women of 45-59 years (p = 0.001) and 60-74 years (p = 0.0003) with obesity. In the women of 45-74 years BMI was significantly positively correlated with the level of pain in the lumbar spine. Obesity significantly increases the relative risk of pain in the lumbar region (RR=0.07 (95% CI: 1.03-1.12; p=0.002)), while underweight significantly increases the risk of pain in the thoracic region (RR=1.21 (95% CI: 1.00-1.46; p=0.05)). Conclusion: In women, vertebral pain syndrome may be related to the anthropometric characteristics (e.g., BMI). Underweight may indirectly influence the development of pain in the thoracic spine and increase the risk of pain in this part by 1.21 times. Obesity influences the development of pain in the lumbar spine increasing the risk by 1.07 times.

Keywords: body mass index, age, pain in thoracic and lumbar spine, women

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3934 Physicochemical Properties of Pea Protein Isolate (PPI)-Starch and Soy Protein Isolate (SPI)-Starch Nanocomplexes Treated by Ultrasound at Different pH Values

Authors: Gulcin Yildiz, Hao Feng

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Soybean proteins are the most widely used and researched proteins in the food industry. Due to soy allergies among consumers, however, alternative legume proteins having similar functional properties have been studied in recent years. These alternative proteins are also expected to have a price advantage over soy proteins. One such protein that has shown good potential for food applications is pea protein. Besides the favorable functional properties of pea protein, it also contains fewer anti-nutritional substances than soy protein. However, a comparison of the physicochemical properties of pea protein isolate (PPI)-starch nanocomplexes and soy protein isolate (SPI)-starch nanocomplexes treated by ultrasound has not been well documented. This study was undertaken to investigate the effects of ultrasound treatment on the physicochemical properties of PPI-starch and SPI-starch nanocomplexes. Pea protein isolate (85% pea protein) provided by Roquette (Geneva, IL, USA) and soy protein isolate (SPI, Pro-Fam® 955) obtained from the Archer Daniels Midland Company were adjusted to different pH levels (2-12) and treated with 5 minutes of ultrasonication (100% amplitude) to form complexes with starch. The soluble protein content was determined by the Bradford method using BSA as the standard. The turbidity of the samples was measured using a spectrophotometer (Lambda 1050 UV/VIS/NIR Spectrometer, PerkinElmer, Waltham, MA, USA). The volume-weighted mean diameters (D4, 3) of the soluble proteins were determined by dynamic light scattering (DLS). The emulsifying properties of the proteins were evaluated by the emulsion stability index (ESI) and emulsion activity index (EAI). Both the soy and pea protein isolates showed a U-shaped solubility curve as a function of pH, with a high solubility above the isoelectric point and a low one below it. Increasing the pH from 2 to 12 resulted in increased solubility for both the SPI and PPI-starch complexes. The pea nanocomplexes showed greater solubility than the soy ones. The SPI-starch nanocomplexes showed better emulsifying properties determined by the emulsion stability index (ESI) and emulsion activity index (EAI) due to SPI’s high solubility and high protein content. The PPI had similar or better emulsifying properties at certain pH values than the SPI. The ultrasound treatment significantly decreased the particle sizes of both kinds of nanocomplex. For all pH levels with both proteins, the droplet sizes were found to be lower than 300 nm. The present study clearly demonstrated that applying ultrasonication under different pH conditions significantly improved the solubility and emulsify¬ing properties of the SPI and PPI. The PPI exhibited better solubility and emulsifying properties than the SPI at certain pH levels

Keywords: emulsifying properties, pea protein isolate, soy protein isolate, ultrasonication

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3933 Perceptions of Climate Change Risk to Forest Ecosystems: A Case Study of Patale Community Forestry User Group, Nepal

Authors: N. R. P Withana, E. Auch

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The purpose of this study was to investigate perceptions of climate change risk to forest ecosystems and forest-based communities as well as perceived effectiveness of adaptation strategies for climate change as well as challenges for adaptation. Data was gathered using a pre-tested semi-structured questionnaire. Simple random selection technique was applied. For the majority of issues, the responses were obtained on multi-point Likert scales, and the scores provided were, in turn, used to estimate the means and other useful estimates. A composite knowledge index developed using correct responses to a set of self-rated statements were used to evaluate the issues. The mean of the knowledge index was 0.64. Also all respondents recorded values of the knowledge index above 0.25. Increase forest fire was perceived by respondents as the greatest risk to forest eco-system. Decrease access to water supplies was perceived as the greatest risk to livelihoods of forest based communities. The most effective adaptation strategy relevant to climate change risks to forest eco-systems and forest based communities livelihoods in Kathmandu valley in Nepal as perceived by the respondents was reforestation and afforestation. As well, lack of public awareness was perceived as the major limitation for climate change adaptation. However, perceived risks as well as effective adaptation strategies showed an inconsistent association with knowledge indicators and social-cultural variables. The results provide useful information to any party who involve with climate change issues in Nepal, since such attempts would be more effective once the people’s perceptions on these aspects are taken into account.

Keywords: climate change, risk perceptions, forest ecosystems, forest-based communities

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3932 Role of F18-FDG PET in Management of Differentiated Thyroid Cancers (TENIS) Patients

Authors: Seemab Safdar, Shazia Fatima, Ahmad Qureshy, M. Adnan Saeed, M. Faheem

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Background: Thyroid cancer has 586,000 cases per year worldwide, and this translates to 3% of all tumor diagnoses. 90% of the cases fall under differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC), which includes follicular thyroid cancer (FTC) and papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). During their illness, 10% of patients develop distant metastases, and two-thirds of them develop resistance to radioactive iodine (RAI) treatment. It has been shown that in some circumstances, like DTC with high TG levels and negative 131I whole-body scintigraphy (TENIS), [18F] FDG-PET-CT is an effective imaging technique. This study determines the role of [18F] FDG-PET-CT in the treatment of TENIS patients. Methods: 16 patients (n = 12 female; 4 males, age 45 ± 15 years) with histologically proven thyroid cancer (Differentiated and poorly differentiated) and high TG with negative iodine scans were included in this prospective study from January 2024 to June 2024. They underwent scanning in state-of-the-art (GE Discovery MI) [18F] FDG-PET-CT for re-staging or diagnostics of recurrent disease using a standardized protocol. All DTC subtypes and PDTC were included. The referring physicians completed standardized questionnaires both before and after PET-CT to prospectively determine the examination's effect on clinical decision-making. Patient outcomes were measured by analysis of medical records. Moreover, after PET-CT, a change in the pre-PET-CT planned therapies was documented in 32% of cases and additional invasive diagnostic procedures could be waived in 37.5 % of cases. TG levels under TSH stimulation were significantly higher in patients showing PET-CT metastases compared to patients without such findings (68.75%). Results: Without PET-CT, physicians referring to the doctors had not established a complete treatment plan for 45% of patients with thyroid carcinoma. 12/16 patients showed FDG avidity in cervical lymph nodes that were not Iodine avid previously, 2 patients had FDG avid disease in the lungs. In the process, PET-CT helped plan patient management and created a clear plan for treatment in 68.75% of patients. Conclusions: This study confirms that [18F] FDG-PET-CT used in a routine clinical setting has a very important impact on the management of patients with thyroid cancer when TG levels are persistently high in the presence of negative Iodine Scans by initiating treatments and replacing additional imaging and invasive tests.

Keywords: PET-CT, TENIS, role, FDG

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3931 Stream Channel Changes in Balingara River, Sulawesi Tengah

Authors: Muhardiyan Erawan, Zaenal Mutaqin

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Balingara River is one of the rivers with the type Gravel-Bed in Indonesia. Gravel-Bed Rivers easily deformed in a relatively short time due to several variables, that are climate (rainfall), river discharge, topography, rock types, and land cover. To determine stream channel changes in Balingara River used Landsat 7 and 8 and analyzed planimetric or two dimensions. Parameters to determine changes in the stream channel are sinuosity ratio, Brice Index, the extent of erosion and deposition. Changes in stream channel associated with changes in land cover then analyze with a descriptive analysis of spatial and temporal. The location of a stream channel has a low gradient in the upstream, and middle watershed with the type of rock in the form of gravel is more easily changed than other locations. Changes in the area of erosion and deposition influence the land cover changes.

Keywords: Brice Index, erosion, deposition, gravel-bed, land cover change, sinuosity ratio, stream channel change

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3930 A Quality Index Optimization Method for Non-Invasive Fetal ECG Extraction

Authors: Lucia Billeci, Gennaro Tartarisco, Maurizio Varanini

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Fetal cardiac monitoring by fetal electrocardiogram (fECG) can provide significant clinical information about the healthy condition of the fetus. Despite this potentiality till now the use of fECG in clinical practice has been quite limited due to the difficulties in its measuring. The recovery of fECG from the signals acquired non-invasively by using electrodes placed on the maternal abdomen is a challenging task because abdominal signals are a mixture of several components and the fetal one is very weak. This paper presents an approach for fECG extraction from abdominal maternal recordings, which exploits the characteristics of pseudo-periodicity of fetal ECG. It consists of devising a quality index (fQI) for fECG and of finding the linear combinations of preprocessed abdominal signals, which maximize these fQI (quality index optimization - QIO). It aims at improving the performances of the most commonly adopted methods for fECG extraction, usually based on maternal ECG (mECG) estimating and canceling. The procedure for the fECG extraction and fetal QRS (fQRS) detection is completely unsupervised and based on the following steps: signal pre-processing; maternal ECG (mECG) extraction and maternal QRS detection; mECG component approximation and canceling by weighted principal component analysis; fECG extraction by fQI maximization and fetal QRS detection. The proposed method was compared with our previously developed procedure, which obtained the highest at the Physionet/Computing in Cardiology Challenge 2013. That procedure was based on removing the mECG from abdominal signals estimated by a principal component analysis (PCA) and applying the Independent component Analysis (ICA) on the residual signals. Both methods were developed and tuned using 69, 1 min long, abdominal measurements with fetal QRS annotation of the dataset A provided by PhysioNet/Computing in Cardiology Challenge 2013. The QIO-based and the ICA-based methods were compared in analyzing two databases of abdominal maternal ECG available on the Physionet site. The first is the Abdominal and Direct Fetal Electrocardiogram Database (ADdb) which contains the fetal QRS annotations thus allowing a quantitative performance comparison, the second is the Non-Invasive Fetal Electrocardiogram Database (NIdb), which does not contain the fetal QRS annotations so that the comparison between the two methods can be only qualitative. In particular, the comparison on NIdb was performed defining an index of quality for the fetal RR series. On the annotated database ADdb the QIO method, provided the performance indexes Sens=0.9988, PPA=0.9991, F1=0.9989 overcoming the ICA-based one, which provided Sens=0.9966, PPA=0.9972, F1=0.9969. The comparison on NIdb was performed defining an index of quality for the fetal RR series. The index of quality resulted higher for the QIO-based method compared to the ICA-based one in 35 records out 55 cases of the NIdb. The QIO-based method gave very high performances with both the databases. The results of this study foresees the application of the algorithm in a fully unsupervised way for the implementation in wearable devices for self-monitoring of fetal health.

Keywords: fetal electrocardiography, fetal QRS detection, independent component analysis (ICA), optimization, wearable

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3929 Effect of Whey Protein-Rice Bran Oil Incorporated Zataria multiflora Extract Edible Coating on Chemical, Physical and Microbial Quality of Chicken Egg

Authors: Majid Javanmard

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In this study, the effects of coating with whey protein concentrate (7.5% w/v) alone and/or in combination with rice bran oil (0.2, 0.4, 0.6 g in 100 ml coating solution) and Zataria multiflora extract (1 and 2 μL in 100 ml coating solution) on the quality attributes and egg shelf life were carefully observed and analyzed. Weight loss, Haugh index, yolk index, pH, air cell depth, shell strength and the impact of this coating on the microbial load of the eggs surface were studied at the end of each week (during the 4 weeks of storage in a room environment temperature and humidity). After 4 weeks of storage, it was observed that the weight loss in all of the treated eggs with whey protein concentrate and 0.2 gr of rice bran oil (experimental group) was significantly lower than that of the control group(P < 0/05). With regard to Haugh index and yolk index, egg shelf life increased about 4 weeks compared with the control samples. Haugh Index changes revealed that the coated samples remained at grade A after 3 weeks of storage, while the control samples were relegated from grade AA to B after one week. Haugh and yolk Indices in all coated eggs were more than those of the control group. In the coated groups, Haugh and yolk indices of the coated samples with whey protein concentrate and 0.2 g rice bran oil and with whey protein concentrate and 0.2g of rice bran oil and 1 micro liter of Zataria multiflora extract were more than those of the other coated eggs and the control group eggs. PH values of the control group were higher than those of the coated groups during the storage of the eggs. The shell strength of the coated group was more than that of the control group (uncoated) and in coated samples, whey protein concentrate and 0.2 gr of rice bran oil coated samples had high shell strength. In the other treatments, no significant differences were observed. The depth of the air cell of the coated groups was determined to be less than that of the control group during the storage period. The minimum inhibitory concentration was 1 μL of Zataria multiflora extract. The results showed that 1 μL concentration of Zataria multiflora extract reduces the microbial load of the egg shell surface to 87% and 2 μL reduced total bacterial load to zero. In sensory evaluation, from evaluator point of view, the coated eggs had more overall acceptance than the uncoated group (control), and in the treatment group coated eggs, those containing a low percentage of rice bran oil had higher overall acceptability. In conclusion, coating as a practical and cost effective method can maintain the quality parameters of eggs and lead to durability of supply conditions in addition to the product marketability.

Keywords: edible coating, chicken egg, whey protein concentrate, rice bran oil, Zataria multiflora extract, shelf life

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3928 The Impact of Food Inflation on Poverty: An Analysis of the Different Households in the Philippines

Authors: Kara Gianina D. Rosas, Jade Emily L. Tong

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This study assesses the vulnerability of households to food price shocks. Using the Philippines as a case study, the researchers aim to understand how such shocks can cause food insecurity in different types of households. This paper measures the impact of actual food price changes during the food crisis of 2006-2009 on poverty in relation to their spatial location. Households are classified as rural or urban and agricultural or non-agricultural. By treating food prices and consumption patterns as heterogeneous, this study differs from conventional poverty analysis as actual prices are used. Merging the Family, Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES) with the Consumer Price Index dataset (CPI), the researchers were able to determine the effects on poverty measures, specifically, headcount index, poverty gap, and poverty severity. The study finds that, without other interventions, food inflation would lead to a significant increase in the number of households that fall below the poverty threshold, except for households whose income is derived from agricultural activities. It also finds that much of the inflation during these years was fueled by the rise in staple food prices. Essentially, this paper aims to broaden the economic perspective of policymakers with regard to the heterogeneity of impacts of inflation through analyzing the deeper microeconomic levels of different subgroups. In hopes of finding a solution to lessen the inequality gap of poverty between the rural and urban poor, this paper aims to aid policymakers in creating projects targeted towards food insecurity.

Keywords: poverty, food inflation, agricultural households, non-agricultural households, net consumption ratio, urban poor, rural poor, head count index, poverty gap, poverty severity

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3927 Charcoal Production from Invasive Species: Suggested Shift for Increased Household Income and Forest Plant Diversity in Nepal

Authors: Kishor Prasad Bhatta, Suman Ghimire, Durga Prasad Joshi

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Invasive Alien Species (IAS) are considered waste forest resources in Nepal. The rapid expansion of IAS is one of the nine main drivers of forest degradation, though the extent and distribution of this species are not well known. Further, the knowledge of the impact of IAS removal on forest plant diversity is hardly known, and the possibilities of income generation from them at the grass-root communities are rarely documented. Systematic sampling of 1% with nested circular plots of 500 square meters was performed in IAS removed and non-removed area, each of 30 hectares in Udayapur Community Forest User Group (CFUG), Chitwan, central Nepal to observe whether the removal of IAS contributed to an increase in plant diversity. In addition, ten entrepreneurs of Udaypur CFUG, involved in the charcoal production, briquette making and marketing were interviewed and interacted as well as their record keeping booklets were reviewed to understand if the charcoal production contributed to their income and employment. The average annual precipitation and temperature of the study area is 2100 mm and 34 degree Celsius respectively with Shorea robusta as main tree species and Eupatorium odoratum as dominant IAS. All the interviewed households were from the ̔below-poverty-line’ category as per Community Forestry Guidelines. A higher Shannon-Weiner plant diversity index at regeneration level was observed in IAS removed areas (2.43) than in control site (1.95). Furthermore, the number of tree seedlings and saplings in the IAS harvested blocks were significantly higher (p < 0.005) compared to the unharvested one. The sale of charcoal produced through the pyrolysis of IAS in ̔ Bio-energy kilns’ contributed for an average increased income of 30.95 % (Nepalese rupees 31,000) of the involved households. Despite above factors, some operational policy hurdles related to charcoal transport and taxation existed at field level. This study suggests that plant diversity could be increased through the removal of IAS, and considerable economic benefits could be achieved if charcoal is substantially produced and utilized.

Keywords: briquette, economic benefits, pyrolysis, regeneration

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3926 Evaluation of the Self-Organizing Map and the Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System Machine Learning Techniques for the Estimation of Crop Water Stress Index of Wheat under Varying Application of Irrigation Water Levels for Efficient Irrigation Scheduling

Authors: Aschalew C. Workneh, K. S. Hari Prasad, C. S. P. Ojha

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The crop water stress index (CWSI) is a cost-effective, non-destructive, and simple technique for tracking the start of crop water stress. This study investigated the feasibility of CWSI derived from canopy temperature to detect the water status of wheat crops. Artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have become increasingly popular in recent years for determining CWSI. In this study, the performance of two AI techniques, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and self-organizing maps (SOM), are compared while determining the CWSI of paddy crops. Field experiments were conducted for varying irrigation water applications during two seasons in 2022 and 2023 at the irrigation field laboratory at the Civil Engineering Department, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, India. The ANFIS and SOM-simulated CWSI values were compared with the experimentally calculated CWSI (EP-CWSI). Multiple regression analysis was used to determine the upper and lower CWSI baselines. The upper CWSI baseline was found to be a function of crop height and wind speed, while the lower CWSI baseline was a function of crop height, air vapor pressure deficit, and wind speed. The performance of ANFIS and SOM were compared based on mean absolute error (MAE), mean bias error (MBE), root mean squared error (RMSE), index of agreement (d), Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), and coefficient of correlation (R²). Both models successfully estimated the CWSI of the paddy crop with higher correlation coefficients and lower statistical errors. However, the ANFIS (R²=0.81, NSE=0.73, d=0.94, RMSE=0.04, MAE= 0.00-1.76 and MBE=-2.13-1.32) outperformed the SOM model (R²=0.77, NSE=0.68, d=0.90, RMSE=0.05, MAE= 0.00-2.13 and MBE=-2.29-1.45). Overall, the results suggest that ANFIS is a reliable tool for accurately determining CWSI in wheat crops compared to SOM.

Keywords: adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, canopy temperature, crop water stress index, self-organizing map, wheat

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3925 Assessing the Effect of the Position of the Cavities on the Inner Plate of the Steel Shear Wall under Time History Dynamic Analysis

Authors: Masoud Mahdavi, Mojtaba Farzaneh Moghadam

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The seismic forces caused by the waves created in the depths of the earth during the earthquake hit the structure and cause the building to vibrate. Creating large seismic forces will cause low-strength sections in the structure to suffer extensive surface damage. The use of new steel shear walls in steel structures has caused the strength of the building and its main members (columns) to increase due to the reduction and depreciation of seismic forces during earthquakes. In the present study, an attempt was made to evaluate a type of steel shear wall that has regular holes in the inner sheet by modeling the finite element model with Abacus software. The shear wall of the steel plate, measuring 6000 × 3000 mm (one floor) and 3 mm thickness, was modeled with four different pores with a cross-sectional area. The shear wall was dynamically subjected to a time history of 5 seconds by three accelerators, El Centro, Imperial Valley and Kobe. The results showed that increasing the distance between the geometric center of the hole and the geometric center of the inner plate in the steel shear wall (increasing the RCS index) caused the total maximum acceleration to be transferred from the perimeter of the hole to horizontal and vertical beams. The results also show that there is no direct relationship between RCS index and total acceleration in steel shear wall and RCS index is separate from the peak ground acceleration value of earthquake.

Keywords: hollow steel plate shear wall, time history analysis, finite element method, abaqus software

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3924 Natural Convection in Wavy-Wall Cavities Filled with Power-Law Fluid

Authors: Cha’o-Kuang Chen, Ching-Chang Cho

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This paper investigates the natural convection heat transfer performance in a complex-wavy-wall cavity filled with power-law fluid. In performing the simulations, the continuity, Cauchy momentum and energy equations are solved subject to the Boussinesq approximation using a finite volume method. The simulations focus specifically on the effects of the flow behavior index in the power-law model and the Rayleigh number on the flow streamlines, isothermal contours and mean Nusselt number within the cavity. The results show that pseudoplastic fluids have a better heat transfer performance than Newtonian or dilatant fluids. Moreover, it is shown that for Rayleigh numbers greater than Ra=103, the mean Nusselt number has a significantly increase as the flow behavior index is decreased.

Keywords: non-Newtonian fluid, power-law fluid, natural convection, heat transfer enhancement, cavity, wavy wall

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3923 Occurrence of Aspidiscus cristatus (Lamarck) in the 'Marnes De Smail' from the Bellezma-Batna Range (Algeria): An Index Species for the Middle Cenomanian 

Authors: Salmi-Laouar Sihem, Aouissi Riadh

Abstract:

The Cenomanian formations of the Bellezma-Batna Range are yielding very diversified fossiliferous beds. Among the abundant and well-preserved fossils stands out Aspidiscus cristatus (Lamarck). This taxon is assigned to the Family Latomeandridae (Alloiteau) for the presence of six symmetry axes. The outer morphology of sampled specimens documents a low-energy environment with a high sedimentary rate and a mud-supported bottom. Its provincialism evidences some characteristic thermal gradients of the marked Tethysian climatic areas. Biometric measurements are given. Coral size increases from the North towards the southeastern Tethysian margin where waters are supposed warmer; this feature is also underlined by a frequent bio-erosion of sampled specimens. Its limited stratigraphic range makes it a good candidate for an index species for the Middle Cenomanian.

Keywords: Aspidiscus cristatus, coral, Middle Cenomanian, Batna, Bellezma, Algeria

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3922 The Preparation of High Surface Area Ni/MgAl2O4 Catalysts for Syngas Methanation

Authors: Jingyu Zhou, Hongfang Ma, Haitao Zhang, Weiyong Ying

Abstract:

High surface area MgAl2O4 supported Nickel catalysts with PVA loadings varying from 0% to 15% were prepared by precipitation and impregnation method. The catalysts were characterized by low temperature N2 adsorption/desorption, X-ray diffraction and H2 temperature programmed reduction. Compared with Ni/γ-Al2O3 catalyst, Ni/MgAl2O4 catalysts exhibited higher activity and selectivity in high temperature. Among the catalysts, Ni/MgAl2O4-5P with 5 wt% PVA showed the best performance, and achieved 95% CO conversion and 96% CH4 selectivity at 600°C, 2.0 MPa, and a WHSV of 12,000 mL·g⁻¹.h⁻¹. It also maintained good stability in 50h life test.

Keywords: methanation, MgAl2O4 support, PVA, high surface area

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3921 Groundwater Quality and Its Suitability for Agricultural Use in the Jeloula Basin, Tunisia

Authors: Intissar Farid

Abstract:

Groundwater quality assessment is crucial for sustainable water use, especially in semi-arid regions like the Jeloula basin in Tunisia, where groundwater is essential for domestic and agricultural needs. The present research aims to characterize the suitability of groundwater for irrigational purposes by considering various parameters: total salt concentration as measured by Electrical Conductivity EC, relative proportions of Na⁺ as expressed by %Na and SAR, Kelly’s ratio, Permeability Index, Magnesium hazard and Residual Sodium chloride. Chemical data indicate that the percent sodium (%Na) in the study area ranged from 26.3 to 45.3%. According to the Wilcox diagram, the quality classification of irrigation water suggests that analyzed groundwaters are suitable for irrigation purposes. The SAR values vary between 2.1 and 5. Most of the groundwater samples plot in the Richards’C3S1 water class and indicate little danger from sodium content to soil and plant growth. The Kelly’s ratio of the analyzed samples ranged from 0.3 to 0.8. These values indicate that the waters are fit for agricultural purposes. Magnesium hazard (MH) values range from 27.5 to 52.6, with an average of 38.9 in the analyzed waters. Hence, the Mg²⁺ content of the groundwater from the shallow aquifer cannot cause any problem to the soil permeability. Permeability index (PI) values computed for the area ranged from 33.6 to 52.7%. The above result, therefore, suggests that most of the water samples fall within class I of the Doneen chart and can be categorized as good irrigation water. The groundwaters collected from the Jeloula shallow aquifer were found to be within the safe limits and thus suitable for irrigation purposes.

Keywords: Kelly's ratio, magnesium hazard, permeability index, residual sodium chloride

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3920 Production and Valorization of Nano Lignins by Organosolv and Steam Explosion

Authors: V. Girard, I. Ziegler-Devin, H. Chapuis, N. Canilho, L. Marchal-Heussler, N. Brosse

Abstract:

Lignocellulosic biomass is made up of the three polymeric fractions that are cellulose, hemicellulose, and lignin, which are highly entangled. In this project, we are particularly interested in the under-valued lignin polymer, which is mainly used for thermal valorization. Lignin from Macro to Nanosize (LIMINA) project will first focus on the extraction of macro lignin from forestry waste (hardwood and softwood) by the mean of eco-friendly processes (organosolv and steam explosion) and then the valorization of nano lignins produced by using anti-solvent precipitation (UV-blocker, cosmetic, food products).

Keywords: nanolignin, nanoparticles, organosolv, steam explosion

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3919 Modeling Water Inequality and Water Security: The Role of Water Governance

Authors: Pius Babuna, Xiaohua Yang, Roberto Xavier Supe Tulcan, Bian Dehui, Mohammed Takase, Bismarck Yelfogle Guba, Chuanliang Han, Doris Abra Awudi, Meishui Lia

Abstract:

Water inequality, water security, and water governance are fundamental parameters that affect the sustainable use of water resources. Through policy formulation and decision-making, water governance determines both water security and water inequality. Largely, where water inequality exists, water security is undermined through unsustainable water use practices that lead to pollution of water resources, conflicts, hoarding of water, and poor sanitation. Incidentally, the interconnectedness of water governance, water inequality, and water security has not been investigated previously. This study modified the Gini coefficient and used a Logistics Growth of Water Resources (LGWR) Model to access water inequality and water security mathematically, and discussed the connected role of water governance. We tested the validity of both models by calculating the actual water inequality and water security of Ghana. We also discussed the implications of water inequality on water security and the overarching role of water governance. The results show that regional water inequality is widespread in some parts. The Volta region showed the highest water inequality (Gini index of 0.58), while the central region showed the lowest (Gini index of 0.15). Water security is moderately sustainable. The use of water resources is currently stress-free. It was estimated to maintain such status until 2132 ± 18, when Ghana will consume half of the current total water resources of 53.2 billion cubic meters. Effectively, water inequality is a threat to water security, results in poverty, under-development heightens tensions in water use, and causes instability. With proper water governance, water inequality can be eliminated through formulating and implementing approaches that engender equal allocation and sustainable use of water resources.

Keywords: water inequality, water security, water governance, Gini coefficient, moran index, water resources management

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3918 Forced Swim Stress Does Not Induce Structural Chromosomal Aberrations in Rat Bone Marrow

Authors: Mohammad Y. Alfaifi

Abstract:

Anything that poses a challenge or a threat to our well-being is a stress. Understanding the genetic material and cellular response of rats threatened with Repeated swimming stress provides insights that can influence human health. The aim of the present study was to assess the genetical damage and cytological changes caused by exposure of the test organism (Rattus rattus) to forced swimming stress. For this purpose, animals have been submerged in water path 15 minutes daily for 2 weeks. Following that, we performed a micronuclei (MN) test using MNNCE (Micronucleated normocromatic erythrocytes) and MNPCE (Micronucleated polychromatic erythrocytes), NDI (Nuclear division index) and cytological parameters using NDCI (nuclear division cytotoxicity index), necrotic and apoptotic cells in rat's bone marrow samples. Results showed that there was a slightly but not significant increase in the frequency of micronucleated as well as in cytological parameters in bone marrow cells.

Keywords: submergence stress, micronucleus, NDI, NDCI, toxicity, chromosomal aberrations

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3917 Early Melt Season Variability of Fast Ice Degradation Due to Small Arctic Riverine Heat Fluxes

Authors: Grace E. Santella, Shawn G. Gallaher, Joseph P. Smith

Abstract:

In order to determine the importance of small-system riverine heat flux on regional landfast sea ice breakup, our study explores the annual spring freshet of the Sagavanirktok River from 2014-2019. Seasonal heat cycling ultimately serves as the driving mechanism behind the freshet; however, as an emerging area of study, the extent to which inland thermodynamics influence coastal tundra geomorphology and connected landfast sea ice has not been extensively investigated in relation to small-scale Arctic river systems. The Sagavanirktok River is a small-to-midsized river system that flows south-to-north on the Alaskan North Slope from the Brooks mountain range to the Beaufort Sea at Prudhoe Bay. Seasonal warming in the spring rapidly melts snow and ice in a northwards progression from the Brooks Range and transitional tundra highlands towards the coast and when coupled with seasonal precipitation, results in a pulsed freshet that propagates through the Sagavanirktok River. The concentrated presence of newly exposed vegetation in the transitional tundra region due to spring melting results in higher absorption of solar radiation due to a lower albedo relative to snow-covered tundra and/or landfast sea ice. This results in spring flood runoff that advances over impermeable early-season permafrost soils with elevated temperatures relative to landfast sea ice and sub-ice flow. We examine the extent to which interannual temporal variability influences the onset and magnitude of river discharge by analyzing field measurements from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) river and meteorological observation sites. Rapid influx of heat to the Arctic Ocean via riverine systems results in a noticeable decay of landfast sea ice independent of ice breakup seaward of the shear zone. Utilizing MODIS imagery from NASA’s Terra satellite, interannual variability of river discharge is visualized, allowing for optical validation that the discharge flow is interacting with landfast sea ice. Thermal erosion experienced by sediment fast ice at the arrival of warm overflow preconditions the ice regime for rapid thawing. We investigate the extent to which interannual heat flux from the Sagavanirktok River’s freshet significantly influences the onset of local landfast sea ice breakup. The early-season warming of atmospheric temperatures is evidenced by the presence of storms which introduce liquid, rather than frozen, precipitation into the system. The resultant decreased albedo of the transitional tundra supports the positive relationship between early-season precipitation events, inland thermodynamic cycling, and degradation of landfast sea ice. Early removal of landfast sea ice increases coastal erosion in these regions and has implications for coastline geomorphology which stress industrial, ecological, and humanitarian infrastructure.

Keywords: Albedo, freshet, landfast sea ice, riverine heat flux, seasonal heat cycling

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3916 The Influence of Oil Price Fluctuations on Macroeconomics Variables of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

Authors: Khalid Mujaljal, Hassan Alhajhoj

Abstract:

This paper empirically investigates the influence of oil price fluctuations on the key macroeconomic variables of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia using unrestricted VAR methodology. Two analytical tools- Granger-causality and variance decomposition are used. The Granger-causality test reveals that almost all specifications of oil price shocks significantly Granger-cause GDP and demonstrates evidence of causality between oil price changes and money supply (M3) and consumer price index percent (CPIPC) in the case of positive oil price shocks. Surprisingly, almost all specifications of oil price shocks do not Granger-cause government expenditure. The outcomes from variance decomposition analysis suggest that positive oil shocks contribute about 25 percent in causing inflation in the country. Also, contribution of symmetric linear oil price shocks and asymmetric positive oil price shocks is significant and persistent with 25 percent explaining variation in world consumer price index till end of the period.

Keywords: Granger causality, oil prices changes, Saudi Arabian economy, variance decomposition

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3915 Impact of Climate Change on Sea Level Rise along the Coastline of Mumbai City, India

Authors: Chakraborty Sudipta, A. R. Kambekar, Sarma Arnab

Abstract:

Sea-level rise being one of the most important impacts of anthropogenic induced climate change resulting from global warming and melting of icebergs at Arctic and Antarctic, the investigations done by various researchers both on Indian Coast and elsewhere during the last decade has been reviewed in this paper. The paper aims to ascertain the propensity of consistency of different suggested methods to predict the near-accurate future sea level rise along the coast of Mumbai. Case studies at East Coast, Southern Tip and West and South West coast of India have been reviewed. Coastal Vulnerability Index of several important international places has been compared, which matched with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change forecasts. The application of Geographic Information System mapping, use of remote sensing technology, both Multi Spectral Scanner and Thematic Mapping data from Landsat classified through Iterative Self-Organizing Data Analysis Technique for arriving at high, moderate and low Coastal Vulnerability Index at various important coastal cities have been observed. Instead of data driven, hindcast based forecast for Significant Wave Height, additional impact of sea level rise has been suggested. Efficacy and limitations of numerical methods vis-à-vis Artificial Neural Network has been assessed, importance of Root Mean Square error on numerical results is mentioned. Comparing between various computerized methods on forecast results obtained from MIKE 21 has been opined to be more reliable than Delft 3D model.

Keywords: climate change, Coastal Vulnerability Index, global warming, sea level rise

Procedia PDF Downloads 130
3914 Research on Internet Attention of Tourism and Marketing Strategy in Northeast Sichuan Economic Zone in China Based on Baidu Index

Authors: Chuanqiao Zheng, Wei Zeng, Haozhen Lin

Abstract:

As of March 2020, the number of Chinese netizens has reached 904 million. The proportion of Internet users accessing the Internet through mobile phones is as high as 99.3%. Under the background of 'Internet +', tourists have a stronger sense of independence in the choice of tourism destinations and tourism products. Tourists are more inclined to learn about the relevant information on tourism destinations and other tourists' evaluations of tourist products through the Internet. The search engine, as an integrated platform that contains a wealth of information, is highly valuable to the analysis of the characteristics of the Internet attention given to various tourism destinations, through big data mining and analysis. This article uses the Baidu Index as the data source, which is one of the products of Baidu Search. The Baidu Index is based on big data, which collects and shares the search results of a large number of Internet users on the Baidu search engine. The big data used in this article includes search index, demand map, population profile, etc. The main research methods used are: (1) based on the search index, analyzing the Internet attention given to the tourism in five cities in Northeast Sichuan at different times, so as to obtain the overall trend and individual characteristics of tourism development in the region; (2) based on the demand map and the population profile, analyzing the demographic characteristics and market positioning of the tourist groups in these cities to understand the characteristics and needs of the target groups; (3) correlating the Internet attention data with the permanent population of each province in China in the corresponding to construct the Boston matrix of the Internet attention rate of the Northeast Sichuan tourism, obtain the tourism target markets, and then propose development strategies for different markets. The study has found that: a) the Internet attention given to the tourism in the region can be categorized into tourist off-season and peak season; the Internet attention given to tourism in different cities is quite different. b) tourists look for information including tour guide information, ticket information, traffic information, weather information, and information on the competing tourism cities; with regard to the population profile, the main group of potential tourists searching for the keywords of tourism in the five prefecture-level cities in Northeast Sichuan are youth. The male to female ratio is about 6 to 4, with males being predominant. c) through the construction of the Boston matrix, it is concluded that the star market for tourism in the Northeast Sichuan Economic Zone includes Sichuan and Shaanxi; the cash cows market includes Hainan and Ningxia; the question market includes Jiangsu and Shanghai; the dog market includes Hubei and Jiangxi. The study concludes with the following planning strategies and recommendations: i) creating a diversified business format that integrates cultural and tourism; ii) creating a brand image of niche tourism; iii) focusing on the development of tourism products; iv) innovating composite three-dimensional marketing channels.

Keywords: Baidu Index, big data, internet attention, tourism

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3913 Structural and Magnetic Properties of Cr Doped Ni-Zn Nanoferrites Prepared by Co-Precipitation Method

Authors: E. Ateia, L. M. Salah, A. H. El-Bassuony

Abstract:

Physical properties of nanocrystalline Ni1-xZnxCryFe2-yO4, (x=0.3, 0.5 and y=0.0, 0.1) with estimated crystallite size of 16.4 nm have been studied. XRD pattern of all prepared systems shows that, the nanosamples without Cr3+ have a cubic spinel structure with the appearance of small peaks designated as a secondary phase. Magnetic constants such as saturation magnetization, (MS) remanent magnetization (Mr) and coercive field (Hc) were obtained and reported. The obtained data shows that, the addition of Cr3+ (0.1mol) decreases the saturation magnetization. This is due to the decrease of magnetic moment of Cr3+ ion (3.0 μB) with respect to Fe3+ ion (5.85 μB). The electrical properties of the investigated samples were also investigated.

Keywords: electrical conductivity, ferrites, grain size, sintering

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3912 The Effect of the Calcination Temperature and SiO2 Addition on the Physical Properties’ of Sol Gel TiO2 Thin Films

Authors: Nour El Houda Arabi, Aicha Iratni, Talaighil Razika, Bruno Capoen, Mohamed Bouazaoui

Abstract:

In this paper, we report the effect of the calcination temperature and SiO2 addition on structural, optical and hydrophilicity of TiO2 films deposited by deep-coating sol-gel process. XRD investigation of the structural TiO2 films with increasing the temperature calcination, reveals that rutile phase will appear for the high temperature (>1000°C). However, the addition of SiO2 relate the densification of TiO2 films. Ellipsometric and UV-visible measure show that the refractive index grow with increasing temperature, against the film thickness decreases. On the other hand, the addition of SiO2 decreases the refractive index and increases the TiO2 film thickness. Finally, the hydrophilicity is assisted by contact angle measurement. It is found that addition of 50% of SiO2 to TiO2 is most effective for reducing the contact angle of water.

Keywords: physical properties, sol, gel, TiO2/SiO2 composite films

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3911 Assessing the Effect of Urban Growth on Land Surface Temperature: A Case Study of Conakry Guinea

Authors: Arafan Traore, Teiji Watanabe

Abstract:

Conakry, the capital city of the Republic of Guinea, has experienced a rapid urban expansion and population increased in the last two decades, which has resulted in remarkable local weather and climate change, raise energy demand and pollution and treating social, economic and environmental development. In this study, the spatiotemporal variation of the land surface temperature (LST) is retrieved to characterize the effect of urban growth on the thermal environment and quantify its relationship with biophysical indices, a normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and a normalized difference built up Index (NDBI). Landsat data TM and OLI/TIRS acquired respectively in 1986, 2000 and 2016 were used for LST retrieval and Land use/cover change analysis. A quantitative analysis based on the integration of a remote sensing and a geography information system (GIS) has revealed an important increased in the LST pattern in the average from 25.21°C in 1986 to 27.06°C in 2000 and 29.34°C in 2016, which was quite eminent with an average gain in surface temperature of 4.13°C over 30 years study period. Additionally, an analysis using a Pearson correlation (r) between (LST) and the biophysical indices, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and a normalized difference built-up Index (NDBI) has revealed a negative relationship between LST and NDVI and a strong positive relationship between LST and NDBI. Which implies that an increase in the NDVI value can reduce the LST intensity; conversely increase in NDBI value may strengthen LST intensity in the study area. Although Landsat data were found efficient in assessing the thermal environment in Conakry, however, the method needs to be refined with in situ measurements of LST in the future studies. The results of this study may assist urban planners, scientists and policies makers concerned about climate variability to make decisions that will enhance sustainable environmental practices in Conakry.

Keywords: Conakry, land surface temperature, urban heat island, geography information system, remote sensing, land use/cover change

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3910 Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrology of Upper Guder Catchment, Upper Blue Nile

Authors: Fikru Fentaw Abera

Abstract:

Climate changes alter regional hydrologic conditions and results in a variety of impacts on water resource systems. Such hydrologic changes will affect almost every aspect of human well-being. The goal of this paper is to assess the impact of climate change on the hydrology of Upper Guder catchment located in northwest of Ethiopia. The GCM derived scenarios (HadCM3 A2a & B2a SRES emission scenarios) experiments were used for the climate projection. The statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to generate future possible local meteorological variables in the study area. The down-scaled data were then used as input to the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model to simulate the corresponding future stream flow regime in Upper Guder catchment of the Abay River Basin. A semi distributed hydrological model, SWAT was developed and Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) was utilized for uncertainty analysis. GLUE is linked with SWAT in the Calibration and Uncertainty Program known as SWAT-CUP. Three benchmark periods simulated for this study were 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. The time series generated by GCM of HadCM3 A2a and B2a and Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) indicate a significant increasing trend in maximum and minimum temperature values and a slight increasing trend in precipitation for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios in both Gedo and Tikur Inch stations for all three bench mark periods. The hydrologic impact analysis made with the downscaled temperature and precipitation time series as input to the hydrological model SWAT suggested for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios. The model output shows that there may be an annual increase in flow volume up to 35% for both emission scenarios in three benchmark periods in the future. All seasons show an increase in flow volume for both A2a and B2a emission scenarios for all time horizons. Potential evapotranspiration in the catchment also will increase annually on average 3-15% for the 2020s and 7-25% for the 2050s and 2080s for both A2a and B2a emissions scenarios.

Keywords: climate change, Guder sub-basin, GCM, SDSM, SWAT, SWAT-CUP, GLUE

Procedia PDF Downloads 363