Search results for: integration step
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 5289

Search results for: integration step

4389 Spatial Integration at the Room-Level of 'Sequina' Slum Area in Alexandria, Egypt

Authors: Ali Essam El Shazly

Abstract:

The slum survey of 'Sequina' area in Alexandria details the building rooms of twenty-building samples according to the integral measure of space syntax. The essence of room organization sets the most integrative 'visitor' domain between the 'inhabitant' wings of less integrated 'parent' than the 'children' structure with visual ring of 'balcony' space. Despite the collective real relative asymmetry of 'pheno-type' aggregation, the relative asymmetry of individual layouts reveals 'geno-type' structure of spatial diversity. The multifunction of rooms optimizes the integral structure of graph and visibility merge, which contrasts with the deep tailing structure of distinctive social domains. The most integrative layout inverts the geno-type into freed rooms of shallow 'inhabitant' domain against the off-centered 'visitor' space, while the most segregated layout further restricts the pheno-type through isolated 'visitor' from 'inhabitant' domains across the 'staircase' public domain. The catalyst 'kitchen & living' spaces demonstrate multi-structural dimensions among the various social domains. The former ranges from most exposed central integrity to the most hidden 'motherhood' territories. The latter, however, mostly integrates at centrality or at the further ringy 'childern' domain. The study concludes social structure of spatial integrity for redevelopment, which is determined through the micro-level survey of rooms with integral dimensions.

Keywords: Alexandria, Sequina slum, spatial integration, space syntax

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4388 Sediment Wave and Cyclic Steps as Mechanism for Sediment Transport in Submarine Canyons Thalweg

Authors: Taiwo Olusoji Lawrence, Peace Mawo Aaron

Abstract:

Seismic analysis of bedforms has proven to be one of the best ways to study deepwater sedimentary features. Canyons are known to be sediment transportation conduit. Sediment wave are large-scale depositional bedforms in various parts of the world's oceans formed predominantly by suspended load transport. These undulating objects usually have tens of meters to a few kilometers in wavelength and a height of several meters. Cyclic steps have long long-wave upstream-migrating bedforms confined by internal hydraulic jumps. They usually occur in regions with high gradients and slope breaks. Cyclic steps and migrating sediment waves are the most common bedform on the seafloor. Cyclic steps and related sediment wave bedforms are significant to the morpho-dynamic evolution of deep-water depositional systems architectural elements, especially those located along tectonically active margins with high gradients and slope breaks that can promote internal hydraulic jumps in turbidity currents. This report examined sedimentary activities and sediment transportation in submarine canyons and provided distinctive insight into factors that created a complex seabed canyon system in the Ceara Fortaleza basin Brazilian Equatorial Margin (BEM). The growing importance of cyclic steps made it imperative to understand the parameters leading to their formation, migration, and architecture as well as their controls on sediment transport in canyon thalweg. We extracted the parameters of the observed bedforms and evaluated the aspect ratio and asymmetricity. We developed a relationship between the hydraulic jump magnitude, depth of the hydraulic fall and the length of the cyclic step therein. It was understood that an increase in the height of the cyclic step increases the magnitude of the hydraulic jump and thereby increases the rate of deposition on the preceding stoss side. An increase in the length of the cyclic steps reduces the magnitude of the hydraulic jump and reduces the rate of deposition at the stoss side. Therefore, flat stoss side was noticed at most preceding cyclic step and sediment wave.

Keywords: Ceara Fortaleza, submarine canyons, cyclic steps, sediment wave

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4387 A Comparison of Inverse Simulation-Based Fault Detection in a Simple Robotic Rover with a Traditional Model-Based Method

Authors: Murray L. Ireland, Kevin J. Worrall, Rebecca Mackenzie, Thaleia Flessa, Euan McGookin, Douglas Thomson

Abstract:

Robotic rovers which are designed to work in extra-terrestrial environments present a unique challenge in terms of the reliability and availability of systems throughout the mission. Should some fault occur, with the nearest human potentially millions of kilometres away, detection and identification of the fault must be performed solely by the robot and its subsystems. Faults in the system sensors are relatively straightforward to detect, through the residuals produced by comparison of the system output with that of a simple model. However, faults in the input, that is, the actuators of the system, are harder to detect. A step change in the input signal, caused potentially by the loss of an actuator, can propagate through the system, resulting in complex residuals in multiple outputs. These residuals can be difficult to isolate or distinguish from residuals caused by environmental disturbances. While a more complex fault detection method or additional sensors could be used to solve these issues, an alternative is presented here. Using inverse simulation (InvSim), the inputs and outputs of the mathematical model of the rover system are reversed. Thus, for a desired trajectory, the corresponding actuator inputs are obtained. A step fault near the input then manifests itself as a step change in the residual between the system inputs and the input trajectory obtained through inverse simulation. This approach avoids the need for additional hardware on a mass- and power-critical system such as the rover. The InvSim fault detection method is applied to a simple four-wheeled rover in simulation. Additive system faults and an external disturbance force and are applied to the vehicle in turn, such that the dynamic response and sensor output of the rover are impacted. Basic model-based fault detection is then employed to provide output residuals which may be analysed to provide information on the fault/disturbance. InvSim-based fault detection is then employed, similarly providing input residuals which provide further information on the fault/disturbance. The input residuals are shown to provide clearer information on the location and magnitude of an input fault than the output residuals. Additionally, they can allow faults to be more clearly discriminated from environmental disturbances.

Keywords: fault detection, ground robot, inverse simulation, rover

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4386 Cybersecurity Strategies for Protecting Oil and Gas Industrial Control Systems

Authors: Gaurav Kumar Sinha

Abstract:

The oil and gas industry is a critical component of the global economy, relying heavily on industrial control systems (ICS) to manage and monitor operations. However, these systems are increasingly becoming targets for cyber-attacks, posing significant risks to operational continuity, safety, and environmental integrity. This paper explores comprehensive cybersecurity strategies for protecting oil and gas industrial control systems. It delves into the unique vulnerabilities of ICS in this sector, including outdated legacy systems, integration with IT networks, and the increased connectivity brought by the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT). We propose a multi-layered defense approach that includes the implementation of robust network security protocols, regular system updates and patch management, advanced threat detection and response mechanisms, and stringent access control measures. We illustrate the effectiveness of these strategies in mitigating cyber risks and ensuring the resilient and secure operation of oil and gas industrial control systems. The findings underscore the necessity for a proactive and adaptive cybersecurity framework to safeguard critical infrastructure in the face of evolving cyber threats.

Keywords: cybersecurity, industrial control systems, oil and gas, cyber-attacks, network security, IoT, threat detection, system updates, patch management, access control, cybersecurity awareness, critical infrastructure, resilience, cyber threats, legacy systems, IT integration, multi-layered defense, operational continuity, safety, environmental integrity

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4385 Repeated Suicidal Attempts in Foster Teenagers: Breaking the Cycle Using a Stepped Care Approach

Authors: Mathilde Blondon, Salla Aicha Dieng, Catherine Pfister

Abstract:

In a paradoxical way, teenagers nowadays seem to use suicidal attempts to elaborate on their trauma abuses and regain some kind of control in their lives. As their behavior becomes life-threatening, the hospital offers a variety of expertise to address their need, with Child Protective Services also joining in, to a point when teenagers could have a feeling of losing control of their lives, which results in them making more suicidal attempts. Our goal here is to walk with these foster teenagers long enough to step therapy up first, then as their mental health is restored enough to step the therapy down in a way that is secure and will give them their life back. This would prevent them from making suicidal attempts to get a feeling of control over their life. We’ll present a clinical case of a 14-year-old girl named Sofia, who was suffering from parental deprivation, an identity disorder, and severe depression disorder. Our intervention took place in January 2024, after Sofia had undergone four hospitalizations, including a two-month period in a specialized clinic. In a stepping-up effort, a substantial setting has been built around Sofia. She was coming three days a week to therapeutic activities at the Child Psychiatry Day Hospital, she had one psychotherapy session a week at the Medical-Psychological Center, and she was meeting with the Adolescent Psychiatrist on a regular basis. However, her suicidal attempts frequency continued to increase to the point when she couldn’t stay more than four days outside the hospital unit without harming herself and being brought back to the Emergency Unit. We were all stuck in some kind of medical deadlock, writing to clinics that had no room for her while social workers were calling foster homes that wouldn’t even accept her either. At some point, a clinical decision was made by the psychiatrist to stop what appeared to be a global movement of traumatic repetition, which involved Sofia’s family, the medical team and the social workers as one. This decision to step therapy down created a surprise and put an end to the cycle. It provided a new path, a new solution where Sofia could securely settle without being unfaithful to her family. Her suicidal attempts stopped for four weeks. She had one relapse, then didn’t make another attempt so far. There is a fine line between too little and too much, a pathway with the right amount of care and support. We believe it is not a steady line but rather a path up and down the hill. It’s about building up this moment when medication and mental processes have improved the subject’s condition enough to allow the medical team to step therapy down and give more control back to the subject. These needed variations used to come from a change of hospital or medical team. Stepped care avoids any breaking of bonds and appears to be decisive in stopping teenagers’ suicidal attempts.

Keywords: child protection, adolescent psychiatry, teenager suicidal attempt, foster teenagers, parental deprivation, stepped care

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4384 Computer Network Applications, Practical Implementations and Structural Control System Representations

Authors: El Miloudi Djelloul

Abstract:

The computer network play an important position for practical implementations of the differently system. To implement a system into network above all is needed to know all the configurations, which is responsible to be a part of the system, and to give adequate information and solution in realtime. So if want to implement this system for example in the school or relevant institutions, the first step is to analyze the types of model which is needed to be configured and another important step is to organize the works in the context of devices, as a part of the general system. Often before configuration, as important point is descriptions and documentations from all the works into the respective process, and then to organize in the aspect of problem-solving. The computer network as critic infrastructure is very specific so the paper present the effectiveness solutions in the structured aspect viewed from one side, and another side is, than the paper reflect the positive aspect in the context of modeling and block schema presentations as an better alternative to solve the specific problem because of continually distortions of the system from the line of devices, programs and signals or packed collisions, which are in movement from one computer node to another nodes.

Keywords: local area networks, LANs, block schema presentations, computer network system, computer node, critical infrastructure packed collisions, structural control system representations, computer network, implementations, modeling structural representations, companies, computers, context, control systems, internet, software

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4383 Inulinase Immobilization on Functionalized Magnetic Nanoparticles Prepared with Soy Protein Isolate Conjugated Bovine Serum Albumin for High Fructose Syrup Production

Authors: Homa Torabizadeh, Mohaddeseh Mikani

Abstract:

Inulinase from Aspergillus niger was covalently immobilized on magnetic nanoparticles (MNPs/Fe3O4) covered with soy protein isolate (SPI/Fe3O4) functionalized by bovine serum albumin (BSA) nanoparticles. MNPs are promising enzyme carriers because they separate easily under external magnetic fields and have enhanced immobilized enzyme reusability. As MNPs aggregate simply, surface coating strategy was employed. SPI functionalized by BSA was a suitable candidate for nanomagnetite coating due to its superior biocompatibility and hydrophilicity. Fe3O4@SPI-BSA nanoparticles were synthesized as a novel carrier with narrow particle size distribution. Step by step fabrication monitoring of Fe3O4@SPI-BSA nanoparticles was performed using field emission scanning electron microscopy and dynamic light scattering. The results illustrated that nanomagnetite with the spherical morphology was well monodispersed with the diameter of about 35 nm. The average size of the SPI-BSA nanoparticles was 80 to 90 nm, and their zeta potential was around −34 mV. Finally, the mean diameter of fabricated Fe3O4@SPI-BSA NPs was less than 120 nm. Inulinase enzyme from Aspergillus niger was covalently immobilized through gluteraldehyde on Fe3O4@SPI-BSA nanoparticles successfully. Fourier transform infrared spectra and field emission scanning electron microscopy images provided sufficient proof for the enzyme immobilization on the nanoparticles with 80% enzyme loading.

Keywords: high fructose syrup, inulinase immobilization, functionalized magnetic nanoparticles, soy protein isolate

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4382 A Two-Stage Process for the Sustainable Production of Aliphatic Polyesters

Authors: A. Douka, S. Vouyiouka, L. M. Papaspyridi, D. Korres, C. Papaspyrides

Abstract:

A "green" process was studied for the preparation of partially renewable aliphatic polyesters based on 1,4-butanediol and 1,8-octanediol with various diacids and derivatives, namely diethyl succinate, adipic acid, sebacic acid, 1,12-dodecanedioic acid and 1,14-tetradecanedioic acid. A first step of enzymatic prepolymerization was carried out in the presence of two different solvents, toluene and diphenylether, applying molecular sieves and vacuum, respectively, to remove polycondensation by-products. Poly(octylene adipate) (PE 8.6), poly(octylene dodecanate)(PE 8.12) and poly(octylene tetradecanate) (PE 8.14) were firstly enzymatically produced in toluene using molecular sieves giving however, low-molecular-weight products. Thereafter, the synthesis of PE 8.12 and PE 8.14 was examined under optimized conditions using diphenylether as solvent and a more vigorous by-product removal step, such as application of vacuum. Apart from these polyesters, the optimized process was also implemented for the production of another long-chain polyester-poly(octylene sebacate) (PE 8.10) and a short-chain polyester-poly(butylene succinate) (PE 4.4). Subsequently, bulk post-polymerization in the melt or solid state was performed. SSP runs involved absence of biocatalyst and reaction temperatures (T) in the vicinity of the prepolymer melting point (Tm-T varied between 15.5 up to 4oC). Focusing on PE 4.4 and PE 8.12, SSP took place under vacuum or flowing nitrogen leading to increase of the molecular weight and improvement of the end product physical appearance and thermal properties.

Keywords: aliphatic polyester, enzymatic polymerization, solid state polymerization, Novozym 435

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4381 Effects of Soaking of Maize on the Viscosity of Masa and Tortilla Physical Properties at Different Nixtamalization Times

Authors: Jorge Martínez-Rodríguez, Esther Pérez-Carrillo, Diana Laura Anchondo Álvarez, Julia Lucía Leal Villarreal, Mariana Juárez Dominguez, Luisa Fernanda Torres Hernández, Daniela Salinas Morales, Erick Heredia-Olea

Abstract:

Maize tortillas are a staple food in Mexico which are mostly made by nixtamalization, which includes the cooking and steeping of maize kernels in alkaline conditions. The cooking step in nixtamalization demands a lot of energy and also generates nejayote, a water pollutant, at the end of the process. The aim of this study was to reduce the cooking time by adding a maize soaking step before nixtamalization while maintaining the quality properties of masa and tortillas. Maize kernels were soaked for 36 h to increase moisture up to 36%. Then, the effect of different cooking times (0, 5, 10, 15, 20, 20, 25, 30, 35, 45-control and 50 minutes) was evaluated on viscosity profile (RVA) of masa to select the treatments with a profile similar or equal to control. All treatments were left steeping overnight and had the same milling conditions. Treatments selected were 20- and 25-min cooking times which had similar values for pasting temperature (79.23°C and 80.23°C), Maximum Viscosity (105.88 Cp and 96.25 Cp) and Final Viscosity (188.5 Cp and 174 Cp) to those of 45 min-control (77.65 °C, 110.08 Cp, and 186.70 Cp, respectively). Afterward, tortillas were produced with the chosen treatments (20 and 25 min) and for control, then were analyzed for texture, damage starch, colorimetry, thickness, and average diameter. Colorimetric analysis of tortillas only showed significant differences for yellow/blue coordinates (b* parameter) at 20 min (0.885), unlike the 25-minute treatment (1.122). Luminosity (L*) and red/green coordinates (a*) showed no significant differences from treatments with respect control (69.912 and 1.072, respectively); however, 25 minutes was closer in both parameters (73.390 and 1.122) than 20 minutes (74.08 and 0.884). For the color difference, (E), the 25 min value (3.84) was the most similar to the control. However, for tortilla thickness and diameter, the 20-minute with 1.57 mm and 13.12 cm respectively was closer to those of the control (1.69 mm and 13.86 cm) although smaller to it. On the other hand, the 25 min treatment tortilla was smaller than both 20 min and control with 1.51 mm thickness and 13.590 cm diameter. According to texture analyses, there was no difference in terms of stretchability (8.803-10.308 gf) and distance for the break (95.70-126.46 mm) among all treatments. However, for the breaking point, all treatments (317.1 gf and 276.5 gf for 25 and 20- min treatment, respectively) were significantly different from the control tortilla (392.2 gf). Results suggest that by adding a soaking step and reducing cooking time by 25 minutes, masa and tortillas obtained had similar functional and textural properties to the traditional nixtamalization process.

Keywords: tortilla, nixtamalization, corn, lime cooking, RVA, colorimetry, texture, masa rheology

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4380 Energy Efficiency and Sustainability Analytics for Reducing Carbon Emissions in Oil Refineries

Authors: Gaurav Kumar Sinha

Abstract:

The oil refining industry, significant in its energy consumption and carbon emissions, faces increasing pressure to reduce its environmental footprint. This article explores the application of energy efficiency and sustainability analytics as crucial tools for reducing carbon emissions in oil refineries. Through a comprehensive review of current practices and technologies, this study highlights innovative analytical approaches that can significantly enhance energy efficiency. We focus on the integration of advanced data analytics, including machine learning and predictive modeling, to optimize process controls and energy use. These technologies are examined for their potential to not only lower energy consumption but also reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, the article discusses the implementation of sustainability analytics to monitor and improve environmental performance across various operational facets of oil refineries. We explore case studies where predictive analytics have successfully identified opportunities for reducing energy use and emissions, providing a template for industry-wide application. The challenges associated with deploying these analytics, such as data integration and the need for skilled personnel, are also addressed. The paper concludes with strategic recommendations for oil refineries aiming to enhance their sustainability practices through the adoption of targeted analytics. By implementing these measures, refineries can achieve significant reductions in carbon emissions, aligning with global environmental goals and regulatory requirements.

Keywords: energy efficiency, sustainability analytics, carbon emissions, oil refineries, data analytics, machine learning, predictive modeling, process optimization, greenhouse gas reduction, environmental performance

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4379 Simulation-Based Parametric Study for the Hybrid Superplastic Forming of AZ31

Authors: Fatima Ghassan Al-Abtah, Naser Al-Huniti, Elsadig Mahdi

Abstract:

As the lightest constructional metal on earth, magnesium alloys offer excellent potential for weight reduction in the transportation industry, and it was observed that some magnesium alloys exhibit superior ductility and superplastic behavior at high temperatures. The main limitation of the superplastic forming (SPF) includes the low production rate since it needs a long forming time for each part. Through this study, an SPF process that starts with a mechanical pre-forming stage is developed to promote formability and reduce forming time. A two-dimensional finite element model is used to simulate the process. The forming process consists of two steps. At the pre-forming step (deep drawing), the sheet is drawn into the die to a preselected level, using a mechanical punch, and at the second step (SPF) a pressurized gas is applied at a controlled rate. It is shown that a significant reduction in forming time and improved final thickness uniformity can be achieved when the hybrid forming technique is used, where the process achieved a fully formed part at 400°C. Investigation for the impact of different forming process parameters achieved by comparing forming time and the distribution of final thickness that were obtained from the simulation analysis. Maximum thinning decreased from over 67% to less than 55% and forming time significantly decreased by more than 6 minutes, and the required gas pressure profile was predicted for optimum forming process parameters based on the 0.001/sec target constant strain rate within the sheet.

Keywords: magnesium, plasticity, superplastic forming, finite element analysis

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4378 Extensions to Chen's Minimizing Equal Mass Paralellogram Solutions

Authors: Abdalla Manur, Daniel Offin, Alessandro Arsie

Abstract:

In this paper, we study the extension of the minimizing equal mass parallelogram solutions which was derived by Chen in 2001. Chen’s solution was minimizing for one quarter of the period [0; T], where numerical integration had been used in his proof. This paper focuses on extending the minimization property to intervals of time [0; 2T] and [0; 4T].

Keywords: action, Hamiltoian, N-body, symmetry

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4377 Use of Galileo Advanced Features in Maritime Domain

Authors: Olivier Chaigneau, Damianos Oikonomidis, Marie-Cecile Delmas

Abstract:

GAMBAS (Galileo Advanced features for the Maritime domain: Breakthrough Applications for Safety and security) is a project funded by the European Space Program Agency (EUSPA) aiming at identifying the search-and-rescue and ship security alert system needs for maritime users (including operators and fishing stakeholders) and developing operational concepts to answer these needs. The general objective of the GAMBAS project is to support the deployment of Galileo exclusive features in the maritime domain in order to improve safety and security at sea, detection of illegal activities and associated surveillance means, resilience to natural and human-induced emergency situations, and develop, integrate, demonstrate, standardize and disseminate these new associated capabilities. The project aims to demonstrate: improvement of the SAR (Search And Rescue) and SSAS (Ship Security Alert System) detection and response to maritime distress through the integration of new features into the beacon for SSAS in terms of cost optimization, user-friendly aspects, integration of Galileo and OS NMA (Open Service Navigation Message Authentication) reception for improved authenticated localization performance and reliability, and at sea triggering capabilities, optimization of the responsiveness of RCCs (Rescue Co-ordination Centre) towards the distress situations affecting vessels, the adaptation of the MCCs (Mission Control Center) and MEOLUT (Medium Earth Orbit Local User Terminal) to the data distribution of SSAS alerts.

Keywords: Galileo new advanced features, maritime, safety, security

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4376 A Geosynchronous Orbit Synthetic Aperture Radar Simulator for Moving Ship Targets

Authors: Linjie Zhang, Baifen Ren, Xi Zhang, Genwang Liu

Abstract:

Ship detection is of great significance for both military and civilian applications. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) with all-day, all-weather, ultra-long-range characteristics, has been used widely. In view of the low time resolution of low orbit SAR and the needs for high time resolution SAR data, GEO (Geosynchronous orbit) SAR is getting more and more attention. Since GEO SAR has short revisiting period and large coverage area, it is expected to be well utilized in marine ship targets monitoring. However, the height of the orbit increases the time of integration by almost two orders of magnitude. For moving marine vessels, the utility and efficacy of GEO SAR are still not sure. This paper attempts to find the feasibility of GEO SAR by giving a GEO SAR simulator of moving ships. This presented GEO SAR simulator is a kind of geometrical-based radar imaging simulator, which focus on geometrical quality rather than high radiometric. Inputs of this simulator are 3D ship model (.obj format, produced by most 3D design software, such as 3D Max), ship's velocity, and the parameters of satellite orbit and SAR platform. Its outputs are simulated GEO SAR raw signal data and SAR image. This simulating process is accomplished by the following four steps. (1) Reading 3D model, including the ship rotations (pitch, yaw, and roll) and velocity (speed and direction) parameters, extract information of those little primitives (triangles) which is visible from the SAR platform. (2) Computing the radar scattering from the ship with physical optics (PO) method. In this step, the vessel is sliced into many little rectangles primitives along the azimuth. The radiometric calculation of each primitive is carried out separately. Since this simulator only focuses on the complex structure of ships, only single-bounce reflection and double-bounce reflection are considered. (3) Generating the raw data with GEO SAR signal modeling. Since the normal ‘stop and go’ model is not available for GEO SAR, the range model should be reconsidered. (4) At last, generating GEO SAR image with improved Range Doppler method. Numerical simulation of fishing boat and cargo ship will be given. GEO SAR images of different posture, velocity, satellite orbit, and SAR platform will be simulated. By analyzing these simulated results, the effectiveness of GEO SAR for the detection of marine moving vessels is evaluated.

Keywords: GEO SAR, radar, simulation, ship

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4375 Comparative Evaluation of Pharmacologically Guided Approaches (PGA) to Determine Maximum Recommended Starting Dose (MRSD) of Monoclonal Antibodies for First Clinical Trial

Authors: Ibraheem Husain, Abul Kalam Najmi, Karishma Chester

Abstract:

First-in-human (FIH) studies are a critical step in clinical development of any molecule that has shown therapeutic promise in preclinical evaluations, since preclinical research and safety studies into clinical development is a crucial step for successful development of monoclonal antibodies for guidance in pharmaceutical industry for the treatment of human diseases. Therefore, comparison between USFDA and nine pharmacologically guided approaches (PGA) (simple allometry, maximum life span potential, brain weight, rule of exponent (ROE), two species methods and one species methods) were made to determine maximum recommended starting dose (MRSD) for first in human clinical trials using four drugs namely Denosumab, Bevacizumab, Anakinra and Omalizumab. In our study, the predicted pharmacokinetic (pk) parameters and the estimated first-in-human dose of antibodies were compared with the observed human values. The study indicated that the clearance and volume of distribution of antibodies can be predicted with reasonable accuracy in human and a good estimate of first human dose can be obtained from the predicted human clearance and volume of distribution. A pictorial method evaluation chart was also developed based on fold errors for simultaneous evaluation of various methods.

Keywords: clinical pharmacology (CPH), clinical research (CRE), clinical trials (CTR), maximum recommended starting dose (MRSD), clearance and volume of distribution

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4374 Evaluation of Vehicle Classification Categories: Florida Case Study

Authors: Ren Moses, Jaqueline Masaki

Abstract:

This paper addresses the need for accurate and updated vehicle classification system through a thorough evaluation of vehicle class categories to identify errors arising from the existing system and proposing modifications. The data collected from two permanent traffic monitoring sites in Florida were used to evaluate the performance of the existing vehicle classification table. The vehicle data were collected and classified by the automatic vehicle classifier (AVC), and a video camera was used to obtain ground truth data. The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) vehicle classification definitions were used to define vehicle classes from the video and compare them to the data generated by AVC in order to identify the sources of misclassification. Six types of errors were identified. Modifications were made in the classification table to improve the classification accuracy. The results of this study include the development of updated vehicle classification table with a reduction in total error by 5.1%, a step by step procedure to use for evaluation of vehicle classification studies and recommendations to improve FHWA 13-category rule set. The recommendations for the FHWA 13-category rule set indicate the need for the vehicle classification definitions in this scheme to be updated to reflect the distribution of current traffic. The presented results will be of interest to States’ transportation departments and consultants, researchers, engineers, designers, and planners who require accurate vehicle classification information for planning, designing and maintenance of transportation infrastructures.

Keywords: vehicle classification, traffic monitoring, pavement design, highway traffic

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4373 The Rise of Populist Right-Wing Parties in Western Europe: A Case Study of the Front National in France

Authors: Jessica Da Silva

Abstract:

This paper examines France as a microcosm of the rise of right-wing populism in the broader European context. The attack on the Charlie Hebdo newspaper is arguably, a reaction to the aggressive European secularism spreading throughout Europe that sees its true enemy in the growth of extremist and violent interpretations of Islam. With each terrorist attack, the popularity of anti-immigrant policies and ideologies increases. What ultimately drives movements like the French National Front are the concepts of monoculture and ethnic identity. This paper analyses the character of right-wing populist parties using the National Front as a case study. Such parties generate anxiety and resentment by fomenting an irrational fear of the ‘other’. In this way, populists promote their identity on the basis of xenophobia, Islamophobia, and practices of social exclusion against targeted out-groups. They position immigrants and foreigners as ‘others’, claiming they are a threat to native cultures and a source of social and economic strife. Ultimately, right-wing populism exerts a negative influence over the democratic framework in Europe and opposes the European Union’s integration project. Right-wing populism attacks this supranational model because of its alleged inefficiency and departure from what it considers to be 'authentic' European traditions and citizenship. In this context, understanding the rise of radical right-wing populist parties is extremely important for the future of Europe, democracy and multiculturalism.

Keywords: cultural identity, Europeanization, front national, immigration, integration, Islamophobia, multiculturalism, nationalism, right-wing populist parties, xenophobia

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4372 Design and Simulation of Low Cost Boost-Half- Bridge Microinverter with Grid Connection

Authors: P. Bhavya, P. R. Jayasree

Abstract:

This paper presents a low cost transformer isolated boost half bridge micro-inverter for single phase grid connected PV system. Since the output voltage of a single PV panel is as low as 20~50V, a high voltage gain inverter is required for the PV panel to connect to the single-phase grid. The micro-inverter has two stages, an isolated dc-dc converter stage and an inverter stage with a dc link. To achieve MPPT and to step up the PV voltage to the dc link voltage, a transformer isolated boost half bridge dc-dc converter is used. To output the synchronised sinusoidal current with unity power factor to the grid, a pulse width modulated full bridge inverter with LCL filter is used. Variable step size Maximum Power Point Tracking (MPPT) method is adopted such that fast tracking and high MPPT efficiency are both obtained. AC voltage as per grid requirement is obtained at the output of the inverter. High power factor (>0.99) is obtained at both heavy and light loads. This paper gives the results of computer simulation program of a grid connected solar PV system using MATLAB/Simulink and SIM Power System tool.

Keywords: boost-half-bridge, micro-inverter, maximum power point tracking, grid connection, MATLAB/Simulink

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4371 Identification and Characterization of Antimicrobial Peptides Isolated from Entophytic Bacteria and Their Activity against Multidrug-Resistance Gram-Negative Bacteria in South Korea

Authors: Maryam Beiranvand

Abstract:

Multi-drug resistance in various microorganisms has increased globally in many healthcare facilities. Less effective antimicrobial activity of drug therapies for infection control becomes trouble. Since 1980, no new type of antimicrobial drug has been identified, even though combinations of antibiotic drugs have been discovered almost every decade. Between 1981 and 2006, over 70% of novel pharmaceuticals and chemical agents came from natural sources. Microorganisms have yielded almost 22,000 natural compounds. The identification of antimicrobial components from endophytes bacteria could help overcome the threat posed by multi-drug resistant strains. The project aims to analyze and identify antimicrobial peptides isolated from entophytic bacteria and their activity against multidrug-resistant Gram-negative bacteria in South Korea. Endophytic Paenibacillus polymyxa. 4G3 isolated from the plant, Gynura procumbery exhibited considerable antimicrobial activity against Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus, and Escherichia coli. The Rapid Annotations using Subsystems Technology showed that the total size of the draft genome was 5,739,603bp, containing 5178 genes with 45.8% G+C content. Genome annotation using antiSMASH version 6.0.0 was performed, which predicted the most common types of non-ribosomal peptide synthetase (NRPS) and polyketide synthase (PKS). In this study, diethyl aminoethyl cellulose (DEAEC) resin was used as the first step in purifying for unknown peptides, and then the target protein was identified using hydrophilic and hydrophobic solutions, optimal pH, and step-by-step tests for antimicrobial activity. This crude was subjected to C18 chromatography and elution with 0, 10%, 20%, 30%, 40%, 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90%, and 100% methanol, respectively. Only the fraction eluted with 20% -60% methanol demonstrated good antimicrobial activity against MDR E. coli. The concentration of the active fragment was measured by the Brad-ford test, and Protein A280 - Thermo Fisher Scientific at the end by examining the SDS PAGE Resolving Gel, 10% Acrylamide and purity were confirmed. Our study showed that, based on the combined results of the analysis and purification. P polymyxa. 4G3 has a high potential exists for producing novel functions of polymyxin E and bacitracin against bacterial pathogens.

Keywords: endophytic bacteria, antimicrobial activity, antimicrobial peptide, whole genome sequencing analysis, multi -drug resistance gram negative bacteria

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4370 Estimation of the Length and Location of Ground Surface Deformation Caused by the Reverse Faulting

Authors: Nader Khalafian, Mohsen Ghaderi

Abstract:

Field observations have revealed many examples of structures which were damaged due to ground surface deformation caused by the faulting phenomena. In this paper some efforts were made in order to estimate the length and location of the ground surface where large displacements were created due to the reverse faulting. This research has conducted in two steps; (1) in the first step, a 2D explicit finite element model were developed using ABAQUS software. A subroutine for Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion with strain softening model was developed by the authors in order to properly model the stress strain behavior of the soil in the fault rapture zone. The results of the numerical analysis were verified with the results of available centrifuge experiments. Reasonable coincidence was found between the numerical and experimental data. (2) In the second step, the effects of the fault dip angle (δ), depth of soil layer (H), dilation and friction angle of sand (ψ and φ) and the amount of fault offset (d) on the soil surface displacement and fault rupture path were investigated. An artificial neural network-based model (ANN), as a powerful prediction tool, was developed to generate a general model for predicting faulting characteristics. A properly sized database was created to train and test network. It was found that the length and location of the zone of displaced ground surface can be accurately estimated using the proposed model.

Keywords: reverse faulting, surface deformation, numerical, neural network

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4369 Towards Better Integration: Qualitative Study on Perceptions of Russian-Speaking Immigrants in Australia

Authors: Oleg Shovkovyy

Abstract:

This research conducted in response to one of the most pressing questions on the agenda of many public administration offices around the world: “What could be done for better integration and assimilation of immigrants into hosting communities?” In author’s view, the answer could be suggested by immigrants themselves. They, often ‘bogged down in the past,’ snared by own idols and demons, perceive things differently, which, in turn, may result in their inability to integrate smoothly into hosting communities. Brief literature review suggests that perceptions of immigrants are completely neglected or something unsought in the current research on migrants, which, often, based on opinion polls by members of hosting communities themselves or superficial research data by various research organizations. Even those specimens that include voices of immigrants, unlikely to shed any additional light onto the problem simply because certain things are not made to speak out loud, especially to those in whose hands immigrants’ fate is (authorities). In this regard, this qualitative study, conducted by an insider to a few Russian-speaking communities, represents a unique opportunity for all stakeholders to look at the question of integration through the eyes of immigrants, from a different perspective and thus, makes research findings especially valuable for better understanding of the problem. Case study research employed ethnographic methods of gathering data where, approximately 200 Russian-speaking immigrants of first and second generations were closely observed by the Russian-speaking researcher in their usual setting, for eight months, and at different venues. The number of informal interviews with 27 key informants, with whom the researcher managed to establish a good rapport and who were keen enough to share their experiences voluntarily, were conducted. The field notes were taken at 14 locations (study sites) within the Brisbane region of Queensland, Australia. Moreover, all this time, researcher lived in dwelling of one of the immigrants and was an active participant in the social life (worship, picnics, dinners, weekend schools, concerts, cultural events, social gathering, etc.) of observed communities, whose members, to a large extent, belong to various religious lines of the Russian and Protestant Church. It was found that the majority of immigrants had experienced some discrimination in matters of hiring, employment, recognition of educational qualifications from home countries, and simply felt a sort of dislike from society in various everyday situations. Many noted complete absences or very limited state assistance in terms of employment, training, education, and housing. For instance, the Australian Government Department of Human Services not only does not stimulate job search but, on the contrary, encourages to refuse short-term works and employment. On the other hand, offered free courses on adaptation, and the English language proved to be ineffective and unpopular amongst immigrants. Many interviewees have reported overstated requirements for English proficiency and local work experience, whereas it was not critical for the given task or job. Based on the result of long-term monitoring, the researcher also had the courage to assert the negative and decelerating roles of immigrants’ communities, particularly religious communities, on processes of integration and assimilation. The findings suggest that governments should either change current immigration policies in the direction of their toughening or to take more proactive and responsible role in dealing with immigrant-related issues; for instance, increasing assistance and support to all immigrants and probably, paying more attention to and taking stake in managing and organizing lives of immigrants’ communities rather, simply leaving it all to chance.

Keywords: Australia, immigration, integration, perceptions

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4368 Tomato-Weed Classification by RetinaNet One-Step Neural Network

Authors: Dionisio Andujar, Juan lópez-Correa, Hugo Moreno, Angela Ri

Abstract:

The increased number of weeds in tomato crops highly lower yields. Weed identification with the aim of machine learning is important to carry out site-specific control. The last advances in computer vision are a powerful tool to face the problem. The analysis of RGB (Red, Green, Blue) images through Artificial Neural Networks had been rapidly developed in the past few years, providing new methods for weed classification. The development of the algorithms for crop and weed species classification looks for a real-time classification system using Object Detection algorithms based on Convolutional Neural Networks. The site study was located in commercial corn fields. The classification system has been tested. The procedure can detect and classify weed seedlings in tomato fields. The input to the Neural Network was a set of 10,000 RGB images with a natural infestation of Cyperus rotundus l., Echinochloa crus galli L., Setaria italica L., Portulaca oeracea L., and Solanum nigrum L. The validation process was done with a random selection of RGB images containing the aforementioned species. The mean average precision (mAP) was established as the metric for object detection. The results showed agreements higher than 95 %. The system will provide the input for an online spraying system. Thus, this work plays an important role in Site Specific Weed Management by reducing herbicide use in a single step.

Keywords: deep learning, object detection, cnn, tomato, weeds

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4367 Novel Inference Algorithm for Gaussian Process Classification Model with Multiclass and Its Application to Human Action Classification

Authors: Wanhyun Cho, Soonja Kang, Sangkyoon Kim, Soonyoung Park

Abstract:

In this paper, we propose a novel inference algorithm for the multi-class Gaussian process classification model that can be used in the field of human behavior recognition. This algorithm can drive simultaneously both a posterior distribution of a latent function and estimators of hyper-parameters in a Gaussian process classification model with multi-class. Our algorithm is based on the Laplace approximation (LA) technique and variational EM framework. This is performed in two steps: called expectation and maximization steps. First, in the expectation step, using the Bayesian formula and LA technique, we derive approximately the posterior distribution of the latent function indicating the possibility that each observation belongs to a certain class in the Gaussian process classification model. Second, in the maximization step, using a derived posterior distribution of latent function, we compute the maximum likelihood estimator for hyper-parameters of a covariance matrix necessary to define prior distribution for latent function. These two steps iteratively repeat until a convergence condition satisfies. Moreover, we apply the proposed algorithm with human action classification problem using a public database, namely, the KTH human action data set. Experimental results reveal that the proposed algorithm shows good performance on this data set.

Keywords: bayesian rule, gaussian process classification model with multiclass, gaussian process prior, human action classification, laplace approximation, variational EM algorithm

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4366 Investigating Homicide Offender Typologies Based on Their Clinical Histories and Crime Scene Behaviour Patterns

Authors: Valeria Abreu Minero, Edward Barker, Hannah Dickson, Francois Husson, Sandra Flynn, Jennifer Shaw

Abstract:

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to identify offender typologies based on aspects of the offenders’ psychopathology and their associations with crime scene behaviours using data derived from the National Confidential Enquiry into Suicide and Safety in Mental Health concerning homicides in England and Wales committed by offenders in contact with mental health services in the year preceding the offence (n=759). Design/methodology/approach – The authors used multiple correspondence analysis to investigate the interrelationships between the variables and hierarchical agglomerative clustering to identify offender typologies. Variables describing: the offender’s mental health history; the offenders’ mental state at the time of offence; characteristics useful for police investigations; and patterns of crime scene behaviours were included. Findings – Results showed differences in the offender’s histories in relation to their crime scene behaviours. Further, analyses revealed three homicide typologies: externalising, psychosis and depression. Analyses revealed three homicide typologies: externalising, psychotic and depressive. Practical implications – These typologies may assist the police during homicide investigations by: furthering their understanding of the crime or likely suspect; offering insights into crime patterns; provide advice as to what an offender’s offence behaviour might signify about his/her mental health background; findings suggest information concerning offender psychopathology may be useful for offender profiling purposes in cases of homicide offenders with schizophrenia, depression and comorbid diagnosis of personality disorder and alcohol/drug dependence. Originality/value – Empirical studies with an emphasis on offender profiling have almost exclusively focussed on the inference of offender demographic characteristics. This study provides a first step in the exploration of offender psychopathology and its integration to the multivariate analysis of offence information for the purposes of investigative profiling of homicide by identifying the dominant patterns of mental illness within homicidal behaviour.

Keywords: offender profiling, mental illness, psychopathology, multivariate analysis, homicide, crime scene analysis, crime scene behviours, investigative advice

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4365 A Fourier Method for Risk Quantification and Allocation of Credit Portfolios

Authors: Xiaoyu Shen, Fang Fang, Chujun Qiu

Abstract:

Herewith we present a Fourier method for credit risk quantification and allocation in the factor-copula model framework. The key insight is that, compared to directly computing the cumulative distribution function of the portfolio loss via Monte Carlo simulation, it is, in fact, more efficient to calculate the transformation of the distribution function in the Fourier domain instead and inverting back to the real domain can be done in just one step and semi-analytically, thanks to the popular COS method (with some adjustments). We also show that the Euler risk allocation problem can be solved in the same way since it can be transformed into the problem of evaluating a conditional cumulative distribution function. Once the conditional or unconditional cumulative distribution function is known, one can easily calculate various risk metrics. The proposed method not only fills the niche in literature, to the best of our knowledge, of accurate numerical methods for risk allocation but may also serve as a much faster alternative to the Monte Carlo simulation method for risk quantification in general. It can cope with various factor-copula model choices, which we demonstrate via examples of a two-factor Gaussian copula and a two-factor Gaussian-t hybrid copula. The fast error convergence is proved mathematically and then verified by numerical experiments, in which Value-at-Risk, Expected Shortfall, and conditional Expected Shortfall are taken as examples of commonly used risk metrics. The calculation speed and accuracy are tested to be significantly superior to the MC simulation for real-sized portfolios. The computational complexity is, by design, primarily driven by the number of factors instead of the number of obligors, as in the case of Monte Carlo simulation. The limitation of this method lies in the "curse of dimension" that is intrinsic to multi-dimensional numerical integration, which, however, can be relaxed with the help of dimension reduction techniques and/or parallel computing, as we will demonstrate in a separate paper. The potential application of this method has a wide range: from credit derivatives pricing to economic capital calculation of the banking book, default risk charge and incremental risk charge computation of the trading book, and even to other risk types than credit risk.

Keywords: credit portfolio, risk allocation, factor copula model, the COS method, Fourier method

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4364 Leveraging Positive Psychology Practices to Elevate the Impact of Check-In, Check-Out (CICO) in Schools

Authors: Kimberli Breen

Abstract:

Background Check-In, Check-Out is noted as the most widely implemented evidence-based intervention for youth at-promise within schools. Over twenty years of peer-reviewed research demonstrates the powerful effects of this Positive Behavioral Interventions and Supports (PBIS) practice when implemented with fidelity. However, literature to date has not explicitly connected this intervention with Positive Psychology. Aims This session will illustrate the powerful role Positive Psychology and core elements of PERMA play in the worldwide success of this intervention and how more explicitly aligning Positive Behavioral Interventions and Supports (PBIS) practices with Positive Psychology might remove common barriers to current implementation. Method Students receiving the Check-In, Check-Out intervention experience a warm, positive greeting from a caring adult (CICO Coach) before entering their first class of the day. Teachers then provide high frequency positive feedback to the students at the end of each time block, or segment, of the day. An “optimistic close” to the day is then provided by the same CICO Coach at the end of the school day via the “check-out” process, where students assess the day’s accomplishments and goal-set for the next day. Results CICO clearly aligns with the Positive Psychology core elements of PERMA (Positive Emotion, Engagement, Relationships, Meaning and Accomplishments) and could be further strengthened through explicit integration. Conclusion The already powerful impact and reach of the Check-In, Check-Out intervention can be further enhanced and expanded through greater alignment with Positive Psychology elements and practices. Initiating this important alignment with CICO also offers promise for further integration of Positive Psychology and Positive Behavioral Interventions and Supports.

Keywords: positive pscyhology, check-In check-out, schools, alignment

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4363 Integration of STEM Education in Quebec, Canada – Challenges and Opportunities

Authors: B. El Fadil, R. Najar

Abstract:

STEM education is promoted by many scholars and curricula around the world, but it is not yet well established in the province of Quebec in Canada. In addition, effective instructional STEM activities and design methods are required to ensure that students and teachers' needs are being met. One potential method is the Engineering Design Process (EDP), a methodology that emphasizes the importance of creativity and collaboration in problem-solving strategies. This article reports on a case study that focused on using the EDP to develop instructional materials by means of making a technological artifact to teach mathematical variables and functions at the secondary level. The five iterative stages of the EDP (design, make, test, infer, and iterate) were integrated into the development of the course materials. Data was collected from different sources: pre- and post-questionnaires, as well as a working document dealing with pupils' understanding based on designing, making, testing, and simulating. Twenty-four grade seven (13 years old) students in Northern Quebec participated in the study. The findings of this study indicate that STEM activities have a positive impact not only on students' engagement in classroom activities but also on learning new mathematical concepts. Furthermore, STEM-focused activities have a significant effect on problem-solving skills development in an interdisciplinary approach. Based on the study's results, we can conclude, inter alia, that teachers should integrate STEM activities into their teaching practices to increase learning outcomes and attach more importance to STEM-focused activities to develop students' reflective thinking and hands-on skills.

Keywords: engineering design process, motivation, stem, integration, variables, functions

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4362 Modeling the Acquisition of Expertise in a Sequential Decision-Making Task

Authors: Cristóbal Moënne-Loccoz, Rodrigo C. Vergara, Vladimir López, Domingo Mery, Diego Cosmelli

Abstract:

Our daily interaction with computational interfaces is plagued of situations in which we go from inexperienced users to experts through self-motivated exploration of the same task. In many of these interactions, we must learn to find our way through a sequence of decisions and actions before obtaining the desired result. For instance, when drawing cash from an ATM machine, choices are presented in a step-by-step fashion so that a specific sequence of actions must be performed in order to produce the expected outcome. But, as they become experts in the use of such interfaces, do users adopt specific search and learning strategies? Moreover, if so, can we use this information to follow the process of expertise development and, eventually, predict future actions? This would be a critical step towards building truly adaptive interfaces that can facilitate interaction at different moments of the learning curve. Furthermore, it could provide a window into potential mechanisms underlying decision-making behavior in real world scenarios. Here we tackle this question using a simple game interface that instantiates a 4-level binary decision tree (BDT) sequential decision-making task. Participants have to explore the interface and discover an underlying concept-icon mapping in order to complete the game. We develop a Hidden Markov Model (HMM)-based approach whereby a set of stereotyped, hierarchically related search behaviors act as hidden states. Using this model, we are able to track the decision-making process as participants explore, learn and develop expertise in the use of the interface. Our results show that partitioning the problem space into such stereotyped strategies is sufficient to capture a host of exploratory and learning behaviors. Moreover, using the modular architecture of stereotyped strategies as a Mixture of Experts, we are able to simultaneously ask the experts about the user's most probable future actions. We show that for those participants that learn the task, it becomes possible to predict their next decision, above chance, approximately halfway through the game. Our long-term goal is, on the basis of a better understanding of real-world decision-making processes, to inform the construction of interfaces that can establish dynamic conversations with their users in order to facilitate the development of expertise.

Keywords: behavioral modeling, expertise acquisition, hidden markov models, sequential decision-making

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4361 Second Generation Biofuels: A Futuristic Green Deal for Lignocellulosic Waste

Authors: Nivedita Sharma

Abstract:

The global demand for fossil fuels is very high, but their use is not sustainable since its reserves are declining. Additionally, fossil fuels are responsible for the accumulation of greenhouse gases. The emission of greenhouse gases from the transport sector can be reduced by substituting fossil fuels by biofuels. Thus, renewable fuels capable of sequestering carbon dioxide are in high demand. Second‐generation biofuels, which require lignocellulosic biomass as a substrate and ultimately producing ethanol, fall largely in this category. Bioethanol is a favorable and near carbon-neutral renewable biofuel leading to reduction in tailpipe pollutant emission and improving the ambient air quality. Lignocellulose consists of three main components: cellulose, hemicellulose and lignin which can be converted to ethanol with the help of microbial enzymes. Enzymatic hydrolysis of lignocellulosic biomass in 1st step is considered as the most efficient and least polluting methods for generating fermentable hexose and pentose sugars which subsequently are fermented to power alcohol by yeasts in 2nd step of the process. In the present technology, a complete bioconversion process i.e. potential hydrolytic enzymes i.e. cellulase and xylanase producing microorganisms have been isolated from different niches, screened for enzyme production, identified using phenotyping and genotyping, enzyme production, purification and application of enzymes for saccharification of different lignocellulosic biomass followed by fermentation of hydrolysate to ethanol with high yield is to be presented in detail.

Keywords: cellulase, xylanase, lignocellulose, bioethanol, microbial enzymes

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4360 An Analysis of the Impact of Government Budget Deficits on Economic Performance. A Zimbabwean Perspective

Authors: Tafadzwa Shumba, Rose C. Nyatondo, Regret Sunge

Abstract:

This research analyses the impact of budget deficits on the economic performance of Zimbabwe. The study employs the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) confines testing method to co-integration and long-run estimation using time series data from 1980-2018. The Augmented Dick Fuller (ADF) and the Granger approach were used to testing for stationarity and causality among the factors. Co-integration test results affirm a long term association between GDP development rate and descriptive factors. Causality test results show a unidirectional connection between budget shortfall to GDP development and bi-directional causality amid debt and budget deficit. This study also found unidirectional causality from debt to GDP growth rate. ARDL estimates indicate a significantly positive long term and significantly negative short term impact of budget shortfall on GDP. This suggests that budget deficits have a short-run growth retarding effect and a long-run growth-inducing effect. The long-run results follow the Keynesian theory that posits that fiscal deficits result in an increase in GDP growth. Short-run outcomes follow the neoclassical theory. In light of these findings, the government is recommended to minimize financing of recurrent expenditure using a budget deficit. To achieve sustainable growth and development, the government needs to spend an absorbable budget deficit focusing on capital projects such as the development of human capital and infrastructure.

Keywords: ARDL, budget deficit, economic performance, long run

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