Search results for: equivalent linear model

Authors: Yi-Xuan Huang, Kung-Ming Chung, Ping-Han Chung

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Pressure sensitive paint (PSP), which relies on the oxygen quenching of a luminescent molecule, is an optical technique used in wind-tunnel models. A full-field pressure pattern with low aerodynamic interference can be obtained, and it is becoming an alternative to pressure measurements using pressure taps. In this study, a polymer-ceramic PSP was used, using toluene as a solvent. The porous particle and polymer were silica gel (SiO₂) and RTV-118 (3g:7g), respectively. The compound was sprayed onto the model surface using a spray gun. The absorption and emission spectra for Ru(dpp) as a luminophore were respectively 441-467 nm and 597 nm. A Revox SLG-55 light source with a short-pass filter (550 nm) and a 14-bit CCD camera with a long-pass (600 nm) filter were used to illuminate PSP and to capture images. This study determines surface pressure patterns for a forebody of an AGARD B model in a compressible flow. Since there is no experimental data for surface pressure distributions available, numerical simulation is conducted using ANSYS Fluent. The lift and drag coefficients are calculated and in comparison with the data in the open literature. The experiments were conducted using a transonic wind tunnel at the Aerospace Science and Research Center, National Cheng Kung University. The freestream Mach numbers were 0.83, and the angle of attack ranged from -4 to 8 degree. Deviation between PSP and numerical simulation is within 5%. However, the effect of the setup of the light source should be taken into account to address the relative error.

Keywords: pressure sensitive paint, forebody, surface pressure, compressible flow

Procedia PDF Downloads 111

Authors: Arth Bohra, Marwa Mahmoud

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In this paper, we utilize computer vision to develop a tool for youth coaches to formulate set-piece tactics for their players. We used the Soccernet database to extract the ResNet features and camera calibration data for over 3000 corner kick across 500 professional matches in the top 6 European leagues (English Premier League, UEFA Champions League, Ligue 1, La Liga, Serie A, Bundesliga). Leveraging the provided homography matrix, we construct a feature vector representing the formation of players on these corner kicks. Additionally, labeling the videos manually, we obtained the pass-trajectory of each of the 3000+ corner kicks by segmenting the field into four zones. Next, after determining the localization of the players and ball, we used event data to give the corner kicks a rating on a 1-4 scale. By employing a Convolutional Neural Network, our model managed to predict the success of a corner kick given the formations of players. This suggests that with the right formations, teams can optimize the way they approach corner kicks. By understanding this, we can help coaches formulate set-piece tactics for their own teams in order to maximize the success of their play. The proposed model can be easily extended; our method could be applied to even more game situations, from free kicks to counterattacks. This research project also gives insight into the myriad of possibilities that artificial intelligence possesses in transforming the domain of sports.

Keywords: soccer, corner kicks, AI, computer vision

Procedia PDF Downloads 159

Authors: Victor Bodell, Lukas Ekstrom, Somayeh Aghanavesi

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Fuel consumption (FC) is one of the key factors in determining expenses of operating a heavy-duty vehicle. A customer may therefore request an estimate of the FC of a desired vehicle. The modular design of heavy-duty vehicles allows their construction by specifying the building blocks, such as gear box, engine and chassis type. If the combination of building blocks is unprecedented, it is unfeasible to measure the FC, since this would first r equire the construction of the vehicle. This paper proposes a machine learning approach to predict FC. This study uses around 40,000 vehicles specific and o perational e nvironmental c onditions i nformation, such as road slopes and driver profiles. A ll v ehicles h ave d iesel engines and a mileage of more than 20,000 km. The data is used to investigate the accuracy of machine learning algorithms Linear regression (LR), K-nearest neighbor (KNN) and Artificial n eural n etworks (ANN) in predicting fuel consumption for heavy-duty vehicles. Performance of the algorithms is evaluated by reporting the prediction error on both simulated data and operational measurements. The performance of the algorithms is compared using nested cross-validation and statistical hypothesis testing. The statistical evaluation procedure finds that ANNs have the lowest prediction error compared to LR and KNN in estimating fuel consumption on both simulated and operational data. The models have a mean relative prediction error of 0.3% on simulated data, and 4.2% on operational data.

Keywords: artificial neural networks, fuel consumption, friedman test, machine learning, statistical hypothesis testing

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Authors: M. Jerold, V. Sivasubramanian

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This study reports the removal of Malachite Green (MG) from simulated wastewater by using marine macro algae Ulva lactuca. Batch biosorption experiments were carried out to determine the biosorption capacity. The biosorption capacity was found to be maximum at pH 10. The effect of various other operation parameters such as biosorbent dosage, initial dye concentration, contact time and agitation was also investigated. The equilibrium attained at 120 min with 0.1 g/L of biosorbent. The isotherm experimental data fitted well with Langmuir Model with R² value of 0.994. The maximum Langmuir biosorption capacity was found to be 76.92 mg/g. Further, Langmuir separation factor RL value was found to be 0.004. Therefore, the adsorption is favorable. The biosorption kinetics of MG was found to follow pseudo second-order kinetic model. The mechanistic study revealed that the biosorption of malachite onto Ulva lactuca was controlled by film diffusion. The solute transfer in a solid-liquid adsorption process is characterized by the film diffusion and/or particle diffusion. Thermodynamic study shows ΔG° is negative indicates the feasibility and spontaneous nature for the biosorption of malachite green. The biosorbent was characterized using Scanning Electron Microscopy, Fourier Transform Infrared Spectroscopy, and elemental analysis (CHNS: Carbon, Hydrogen, Nitrogen, Sulphur). This study showed that Ulva lactuca can be used as promising biosorbent for the removal of MG from wastewater.

Keywords: biosorption, Ulva lactuca, wastewater, malachite green, isotherm, kinetics

Procedia PDF Downloads 137

Authors: Mamta Rajbhar, Sanjay K. Mohanty

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India's progress in achieving replacement level of fertility is largely contingent on fertility reduction in the state of Uttar Pradesh as it accounts 17% of India's population with a low level of development. Though the TFR in the state has declined from 5.1 in 1991 to 3.4 by 2011, it conceals large differences in fertility level across districts. Using data from multiple sources this paper tests the hypothesis that the improvement in human development significantly reduces the fertility levels in districts of Uttar Pradesh. The unit of analyses is district, and fertility estimates are derived using the reverse survival method(RSM) while human development indices(HDI) are are estimated using uniform methodology adopted by UNDP for three period. The correlation and linear regression models are used to examine the relationship of fertility change and human development indices across districts. Result show the large variation and significant change in fertility level among the districts of Uttar Pradesh. During 1991-2011, eight districts had experienced a decline of TFR by 10-20%, 30 districts by 20-30% and 32 districts had experienced decline of more than 30%. On human development aspect, 17 districts recorded increase of more than 0.170 in HDI, 18 districts in the range of 0.150-0.170, 29 districts between 0.125-0.150 and six districts in the range of 0.1-0.125 during 1991-2011. Study shows significant negative relationship between HDI and TFR. HDI alone explains 70% variation in TFR. Also, the regression coefficient of TFR and HDI has become stronger over time; from -0.524 in 1991, -0.7477 by 2001 and -0.7181 by 2010. The regression analyses indicate that 0.1 point increase in HDI value will lead to 0.78 point decline in TFR. The HDI alone explains 70% variation in TFR. Improving the HDI will certainly reduce the fertility level in the districts.

Keywords: Fertility, HDI, Uttar Pradesh

Procedia PDF Downloads 231

Authors: Majid Farsadrooh, Najmeh Sabbaghi, Seyed Mohammad Mostashari, Abolhasan Moradi

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Phenolic compounds are chief environmental contaminants on account of their hazardous and toxic nature on human health. The preparation of sensitive and potent chemosensors to monitor emerging pollution in water and effluent samples has received great consideration. A novel and versatile nanocomposite sensor based on poly pyrogallol is presented for the first time in this study, and its electrochemical behavior for simultaneous detection of hydroquinone (HQ), catechol (CT), and resorcinol (RS) in the presence of nitrite is evaluated. The physicochemical characteristics of the fabricated nanocomposite were investigated by emission-scanning electron microscopy (FE-SEM), energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), and Brunauer-Emmett-Teller (BET). The electrochemical response of the proposed sensor to the detection of HQ, CT, RS, and nitrite is studied using cyclic voltammetry (CV), chronoamperometry (CA), differential pulse voltammetry (DPV), and electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS). The kinetic characterization of the prepared sensor showed that both adsorption and diffusion processes can control reactions at the electrode. In the optimized conditions, the new chemosensor provides a wide linear range of 0.5-236.3, 0.8-236.3, 0.9-236.3, and 1.2-236.3 μM with a low limit of detection of 21.1, 51.4, 98.9, and 110.8 nM (S/N = 3) for HQ, CT and RS, and nitrite, respectively. Remarkably, the electrochemical sensor has outstanding selectivity, repeatability, and stability and is successfully employed for the detection of RS, CT, HQ, and nitrite in real water samples with the recovery of 96.2%–102.4%, 97.8%-102.6%, 98.0%–102.4% and 98.4%–103.2% for RS, CT, HQ, and nitrite, respectively. These outcomes illustrate that poly pyrogallol is a promising candidate for effective electrochemical detection of dihydroxybenzene isomers in the presence of nitrite.

Keywords: electrochemical sensor, poly pyrogallol, phenolic compounds, simultaneous determination

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Authors: Mohamed Muse Hassan

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Selling through the Internet is changing the norms of doing business globally. Today, selling and buying from the Internet is not only an option but the dominant form of shopping. But, this phenomenon is not thriving in the developing countries, mainly in Africa. Therefore, although previous studies focused on the e-retailers’ side, this study investigates the effect of consumer trust and online payment options on the awareness and perception of e-commerce in Africa. We developed a five-construct model and empirically tested the model by targeting professionals and college students who reside in Somalia. We employed structural equation modeling (SEM) technique for path analysis to probe answers for the variables under study. The main findings of the study show that there is significant evidence that online payment option impacts both the awareness level and perception of e-commerce in Somalia. Consumer trust was also found to determine both the awareness and perception of online shopping in the country. Moreover, the current global payment options available ignore local technologies popular in Africa. For example, the inclusion of a mobile payment option alone would make a big difference in Africa. The paper also determined that consumer trust toward online retailers is very low and this can be solved if consumers are given assurances for their financial transactions. The paper concludes that increased online payment options are needed in Somalia and, in Africa, in general. Limitations and further research suggestions are also included at the end of this paper.

Keywords: Africa, consumer trust, e-commerce, online payment

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Authors: Liaquat Ali, Khurshid Natasha

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Low resource countries are not usually equipped with the organizational tools to implement health care for chronic diseases, and thus, providing effective diabetes care in such countries is a challenging task. Diabetic Association of Bangladesh (BADAS in Bengali acronym) has created a stimulating example to meet this challenge. Starting its journey in 1956 with 39 patients in a small tin shed clinic BADAS, and its affiliated associations now operate 90 hospitals and health centres all over the country. Together, these facilities provide integrated health care to about 1.5 million registered diabetic patients which constitute about 20% of the estimated diabetic population in the country. BADAS has also become a pioneer in health manpower generation in Bangladesh. Along with its affiliates, it now runs 3 Medical Colleges (to generate graduate physicians), 2 Nursing Institutes, and 2 Postgraduate Institutes which conduct 25 postgraduate courses (under the University of Dhaka) in various basic, clinical and public health disciplines. BADAS gives great emphasis on research, which encompasses basic, clinical as well as public health areas. BADAS is an ideal example of public-private partnership in health as most of its infrastructure has been created through government support but it is almost self-reliant in managing its revenue budget which approached approximately 40 million US dollar during 2010. BADAS raises resources by providing high-quality services to the people, both diabetic and non-diabetic. At the same time, BADAS has developed a cross financing model, to support diabetic patients in general and poor diabetic patients (identified through a social welfare network) in particular, through redistribution of the resources. Along with financial sustainability BADAS ensure organizational sustainability through a process of decentralization, community ownership, and democratic management. Presently a large scale pilot project (named as a Health Care Development Project or HCDP) is under implementation under BADAS umbrella with an objective to transform the diabetes care model to a health care model in general. It is expected to create further evidence on providing sustainable (with social safety net) health care delivery for diabetes, and other chronic illnesses as an integral part of general health care delivery in a resource constrained setting.

Keywords: Bangladesh, self sustain, health care, constrain

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Authors: Ayesha Waqar Khan, Mariam Altaf, Jamil Ahmad, Shaheen Shahzad

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Kidney fibrosis is an anticipated outcome of possibly all types of progressive chronic kidney disease (CKD). Epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) signaling pathway is responsible for production of matrix-producing fibroblasts and myofibroblasts in diseased kidney. In this study, a discrete model of TGF-beta (transforming growth factor) and CTGF (connective tissue growth factor) was constructed using Rene Thomas formalism to investigate renal fibrosis turn over. The kinetic logic proposed by Rene Thomas is a renowned approach for modeling of Biological Regulatory Networks (BRNs). This modeling approach uses a set of constraints which represents the dynamics of the BRN thus analyzing the pathway and predicting critical trajectories that lead to a normal or diseased state. The molecular connection between TGF-beta, Smad 2/3 (transcription factor) phosphorylation and CTGF is modeled using GenoTech. The order of BRN is CTGF, TGF-B, and SMAD3 respectively. The predicted cycle depicts activation of TGF-B (TGF-β) via cleavage of its own pro-domain (0,1,0) and presentation to TGFR-II receptor phosphorylating SMAD3 (Smad2/3) in the state (0,1,1). Later TGF-B is turned off (0,0,1) thereby activating SMAD3 that further stimulates the expression of CTGF in the state (1,0,1) and itself turns off in (1,0,0). Elevated CTGF expression reactivates TGF-B (1,1,0) and the cycle continues. The predicted model has generated one cycle and two steady states. Cyclic behavior in this study represents the diseased state in which all three proteins contribute to renal fibrosis. The proposed model is in accordance with the experimental findings of the existing diseased state. Extended cycle results in enhanced CTGF expression through Smad2/3 and Smad4 translocation in the nucleus. The results suggest that the system converges towards organ fibrogenesis if CTGF remains constructively active along with Smad2/3 and Smad 4 that plays an important role in kidney fibrosis. Therefore, modeling regulatory pathways of kidney fibrosis will escort to the progress of therapeutic tools and real-world useful applications such as predictive and preventive medicine.

Keywords: CTGF, renal fibrosis signaling pathway, system biology, qualitative modeling

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Authors: Joseph Amponsah

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This research proposes an equation to predict and determine the momentum source equation term after factoring in the radial friction between the fluid and the blades and the impeller's propulsive power. This research aims to look at how CFD software can be used to predict the effect of flows in nuclear reactor stirred tanks through a momentum source equation and the concentration distribution of tracers that have been introduced in reactor tanks. The estimated findings, including the dimensionless concentration curves, power, and pumping numbers, dimensionless velocity profiles, and mixing times 4, were contrasted with results from tests in stirred containers. The investigation was carried out in Part I for vessels that were agitated by one impeller on a central shaft. The two types of impellers employed were an ordinary Rushton turbine and a 6-bladed 45° pitched blade turbine. The simulations made use of numerous reference frame techniques and the common k-e turbulence model. The impact of the grid type was also examined; unstructured, structured, and unique user-defined grids were looked at. The CFD model was used to simulate the flow field within the Rushton turbine nuclear reactor stirred tank. This method was validated using experimental data that were available close to the impeller tip and in the bulk area. Additionally, analyses of the computational efficiency and time using MRF and SM were done.

Keywords: Ansys fluent, momentum equation, CFD, prediction

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Authors: Narendra Nath Patra

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Several recent studies reinforce the existence of a thick molecular disc in galaxies along with the dynamically cold thin disc. Assuming a two-component molecular disc, we model the disc of NGC 6946 as a four-component system consists of stars, HI, thin disc molecular gas, and thick disc molecular gas in vertical hydrostatic equilibrium. Following, we set up the joint Poisson-Boltzmann equation of hydrostatic equilibrium and solve it numerically to obtain a three-dimensional density distribution of different baryonic components. Using the density solutions and the observed rotation curve, we further build a three-dimensional dynamical model of the molecular disc and consecutively produce simulated CO spectral cube and spectral width profile. We find that the simulated spectral width profiles distinguishably differs for different assumed thick disc molecular gas fraction. Several CO spectral width profiles are then produced for different assumed thick disc molecular gas fractions and compared with the observed one to obtain the best fit thick disc molecular gas fraction profile. We find that the thick disc molecular gas fraction in NGC 6946 largely remains constant across its molecular disc with a mean value of 0.70 +/- 0.09. We also estimate the amount of extra-planar molecular gas in NGC 6946. We find 60% of the total molecular gas is extra-planar at the central region, whereas this fraction reduces to ~ 35% at the edge of the molecular disc. With our method, for the first time, we estimate the thick disc molecular gas fraction as a function of radius in an external galaxy with sub-kpc resolution.

Keywords: galaxies: kinematics and dynamic, galaxies: spiral, galaxies: structure , ISM: molecules, molecular data

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Authors: Daniel Martin Fellows, Sean P. Walton, Jennifer Thompson, Oubay Hassan, Ella Quigley, Kevin Tinkham

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Fire performance is a crucial aspect to consider when designing cladding products, and testing this performance is extremely expensive. Appropriate use of numerical simulation of fire performance has the potential to reduce the total number of fire tests required when designing a product by eliminating poor-performing design ideas early in the design phase. Due to the complexity of fire and the large spectrum of failures it can cause, multi-disciplinary models are needed to capture the complex fire behavior and its structural effects on its surroundings. Working alongside Tata Steel U.K., the authors have focused on completing a coupled CFD-FEA simulation model suited to test Polyisocyanurate (PIR) based sandwich panel products to gain confidence before costly experimental standards testing. The sandwich panels are part of a thermally insulating façade system primarily for large non-domestic buildings. The work presented in this paper compares two coupling methodologies of a replicated physical experimental standards test LPS 1181-1, carried out by Tata Steel U.K. The two coupling methodologies that are considered within this research are; one-way and two-way. A one-way coupled analysis consists of importing thermal data from the CFD solver into the FEA solver. A two-way coupling analysis consists of continuously importing the updated changes in thermal data, due to the fire's behavior, to the FEA solver throughout the simulation. Likewise, the mechanical changes will also be updated back to the CFD solver to include geometric changes within the solution. For CFD calculations, a solver called Fire Dynamic Simulator (FDS) has been chosen due to its adapted numerical scheme to focus solely on fire problems. Validation of FDS applicability has been achieved in past benchmark cases. In addition, an FEA solver called ABAQUS has been chosen to model the structural response to the fire due to its crushable foam plasticity model, which can accurately model the compressibility of PIR foam. An open-source code called FDS-2-ABAQUS is used to couple the two solvers together, using several python modules to complete the process, including failure checks. The coupling methodologies and experimental data acquired from Tata Steel U.K are compared using several variables. The comparison data includes; gas temperatures, surface temperatures, and mechanical deformation of the panels. Conclusions are drawn, noting improvements to be made on the current coupling open-source code FDS-2-ABAQUS to make it more applicable to Tata Steel U.K sandwich panel products. Future directions for reducing the computational cost of the simulation are also considered.

Keywords: fire engineering, numerical coupling, sandwich panels, thermo fluids

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Authors: Yiea Funk Te, Daniel Mueller, Irena Pletikosa Cvijikj

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Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) play an important role in the economy of many countries. When the overall world economy is considered, SMEs represent 95% of all businesses in the world, accounting for 66% of the total employment. Existing studies show that the current business environment is characterized as highly turbulent and strongly influenced by modern information and communication technologies, thus forcing SMEs to experience more severe challenges in maintaining their existence and expanding their business. To support SMEs at improving their competitiveness, researchers recently turned their focus on applying data mining techniques to build risk and growth prediction models. However, data used to assess risk and growth indicators is primarily obtained via questionnaires, which is very laborious and time-consuming, or is provided by financial institutes, thus highly sensitive to privacy issues. Recently, web mining (WM) has emerged as a new approach towards obtaining valuable insights in the business world. WM enables automatic and large scale collection and analysis of potentially valuable data from various online platforms, including companies’ websites. While WM methods have been frequently studied to anticipate growth of sales volume for e-commerce platforms, their application for assessment of SME risk and growth indicators is still scarce. Considering that a vast proportion of SMEs own a website, WM bears a great potential in revealing valuable information hidden in SME websites, which can further be used to understand SME risk and growth indicators, as well as to enhance current SME risk and growth prediction models. This study aims at developing an automated system to collect business-relevant data from the Web and predict future growth trends of SMEs by means of WM and data mining techniques. The envisioned system should serve as an 'early recognition system' for future growth opportunities. In an initial step, we examine how structured and semi-structured Web data in governmental or SME websites can be used to explain the success of SMEs. WM methods are applied to extract Web data in a form of additional input features for the growth prediction model. The data on SMEs provided by a large Swiss insurance company is used as ground truth data (i.e. growth-labeled data) to train the growth prediction model. Different machine learning classification algorithms such as the Support Vector Machine, Random Forest and Artificial Neural Network are applied and compared, with the goal to optimize the prediction performance. The results are compared to those from previous studies, in order to assess the contribution of growth indicators retrieved from the Web for increasing the predictive power of the model.

Keywords: data mining, SME growth, success factors, web mining

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Authors: Rouhallah Bagheri, Morteza Mahmoudi, Hadi Moheb-Alizadeh

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This paper aims at developing a multi-objective model for supplier selection and order allocation problem in stochastic environment, where purchasing cost, percentage of delivered items with delay and percentage of rejected items provided by each supplier are supposed to be stochastic parameters following any arbitrary probability distribution. In this regard, dependent chance programming is used which maximizes probability of the event that total purchasing cost, total delivered items with delay and total rejected items are less than or equal to pre-determined values given by decision maker. The abovementioned stochastic multi-objective programming problem is then transformed into a stochastic single objective programming problem using minimum deviation method. In the next step, the further problem is solved applying a genetic algorithm, which performs a simulation process in order to calculate the stochastic objective function as its fitness function. Finally, the impact of stochastic parameters on the given solution is examined via a sensitivity analysis exploiting coefficient of variation. The results show that whatever stochastic parameters have greater coefficients of variation, the value of the objective function in the stochastic single objective programming problem is deteriorated.

Keywords: supplier selection, order allocation, dependent chance programming, genetic algorithm

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Authors: Anil Ranjitbhai Patel, Clement John Shaji, Peter Liggesmeyer

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Safety and security of autonomous vehicles (AVs) is a growing concern, first, due to the increased number of safety-critical functions taken over by automotive embedded systems; second, due to the increased exposure of the software-intensive systems to potential attackers; third, due to dynamic interaction in an uncertain and unknown environment at runtime which results in changed functional and non-functional properties of the system. Frequently occurring environmental uncertainties, random component failures, and compromise security of the AVs might result in hazardous events, sometimes even in an accident, if left undetected. Beyond these technical issues, we argue that the safety and security of AVs against accidental and deliberate faults are poorly understood and rarely implemented. One possible way to overcome this is through a well-known diversity approach. As an effective approach to increase safety and security, diversity has been widely used in the aviation, railway, and aerospace industries. Thus, the paper proposes fault-tolerance by diversity model takes into consideration the mitigation of accidental and deliberate faults by application of structure and variant redundancy. The model can be used to design the AVs with various types of diversity in hardware and software-based multi-version system. The paper evaluates the presented approach by employing an example from adaptive cruise control, followed by discussing the case study with initial findings.

Keywords: autonomous vehicles, diversity, fault-tolerance, adaptive cruise control, safety, security

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Authors: Majid Alizadeh, Sina Nematizadeh, Hassan Esmailpour

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The mutual effects of hospitality and the environment are undeniable, so that the tourism industry has major harmful effects on the environment. Hotels, as one of the most important pillars of the hospitality industry, have significant effects on the environment. Green marketing is a promising strategy in response to the growing concerns about the environment. A green hotel marketing model was proposed using a grounded theory approach in the hotel industry. The study was carried out as a mixed method study. Data gathering in the qualitative phase was done through literature review and In-depth, semi-structured interviews with 10 experts in green marketing using snowball technique. Following primary analysis, open, axial, and selective coding was done on the data, which yielded 69 concepts, 18 categories and six dimensions. Green hotel (green product) was adopted as the core phenomenon. In the quantitative phase, data were gleaned using 384 questionnaires filled-out by hotel guests and descriptive statistics and Structural equation modeling (SEM) were used for data analysis. The results indicated that the mediating role of behavioral response between the ecological literacy, trust, marketing mix and performance was significant. The green marketing mix, as a strategy, had a significant and positive effect on guests’ behavioral response, corporate green image, and financial and environmental performance of hotels.

Keywords: green marketing, sustainable development, hospitality, grounded theory, structural equations model

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Authors: Ichiro Takahashi

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One of the major assumptions of mainstream macroeconomics is the path independence of capital stock. This paper challenges this assumption by employing an agent-based approach. The simulation results showed the existence of multiple "quasi-steady state" equilibria of the capital stock, which may cast serious doubt on the validity of the assumption. The finding would give a better understanding of many phenomena that involve hysteresis, including the causes of poverty. The "market-clearing view" has been widely shared among major schools of macroeconomics. They understand that the capital stock, the labor force, and technology, determine the "full-employment" equilibrium growth path and demand/supply shocks can move the economy away from the path only temporarily: the dichotomy between the short-run business cycles and the long-run equilibrium path. The view then implicitly assumes the long-run capital stock to be independent of how the economy has evolved. In contrast, "Old Keynesians" have recognized fluctuations in output as arising largely from fluctuations in real aggregate demand. It will then be an interesting question to ask if an agent-based macroeconomic model, which is known to have path dependence, can generate multiple full-employment equilibrium trajectories of the capital stock in the super-long run. If the answer is yes, the equilibrium level of capital stock, an important supply-side factor, would no longer be independent of the business cycle phenomenon. This paper attempts to answer the above question by using the agent-based macroeconomic model developed by Takahashi and Okada (2010). The model would serve this purpose well because it has neither population growth nor technology progress. The objective of the paper is twofold: (1) to explore the causes of long-term business cycle, and (2) to examine the super-long behaviors of the capital stock of full-employment economies. (1) The simulated behaviors of the key macroeconomic variables such as output, employment, real wages showed widely diversified macro-economies. They were often remarkably stable but exhibited both short-term and long-term fluctuations. The long-term fluctuations occur through the following two adjustments: the quantity and relative cost adjustments of capital stock. The first one is obvious and assumed by many business cycle theorists. The reduced aggregate demand lowers prices, which raises real wages, thereby decreasing the relative cost of capital stock with respect to labor. (2) The long-term business cycles/fluctuations were synthesized with the hysteresis of real wages, interest rates, and investments. In particular, a sequence of the simulation runs with a super-long simulation period generated a wide range of perfectly stable paths, many of which achieved full employment: all the macroeconomic trajectories, including capital stock, output, and employment, were perfectly horizontal over 100,000 periods. Moreover, the full-employment level of capital stock was influenced by the history of unemployment, which was itself path-dependent. Thus, an experience of severe unemployment in the past kept the real wage low, which discouraged a relatively costly investment in capital stock. Meanwhile, a history of good performance sometimes brought about a low capital stock due to a high-interest rate that was consistent with a strong investment.

Keywords: agent-based macroeconomic model, business cycle, hysteresis, stability

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Authors: Elizabeth Spink

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Providing safe and affordable drinking water to low-income households in developing countries remains a challenge. Policy goals of increasing household piped-water access and cost recovery for utility providers are often at odds. Nonpayment of utility bills is frequently cited as a constraint to improving the quality of utility service. However, nonpayment is widely tolerated, and households often accumulate significant debt to the utility provider. This study examines the effect of enforcement of water bill payment through supply disconnections in Livingstone, Zambia. This research uses a dynamic model of household monthly payments and accumulation of arrears, which determine the probability of disconnection, and simulates the effect of exogenous changes in enforcement levels. This model is empirically tested using an event-study framework of exogenous increases in enforcement capacity that occur during administrative rezoning events, which reduce the number of households that one enforcement agent is responsible for. The results show that households are five percentage points more likely to make a payment in the months following a rezoning event, but disconnections for low-income households increase as well, resulting in little change in revenue collected by the water utility. The results suggest that high enforcement of water bill payments toward credit-constrained households may be ineffective and lead to reduced piped-water access.

Keywords: enforcement, nonpayment, piped-water access, water utilities

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Authors: Anton S. Perin, Vladimir M. Shandarov

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Compensation for the nonlinear diffraction of narrow laser beams with wavelength of 532 and the formation of photonic waveguides and waveguide circuits due to the contribution of pyroelectric effect to the nonlinear response of lithium niobate crystal have been experimentally demonstrated. Complete compensation for the linear and nonlinear diffraction broadening of light beams is obtained upon uniform heating of an undoped sample from room temperature to 55 degrees Celsius. An analysis of the light-field distribution patterns and the corresponding intensity distribution profiles allowed us to estimate the spacing for the channel waveguides. The observed behavior of bright soliton beams may be caused by their coherent interaction, which manifests itself in repulsion for anti-phase light fields and in attraction for in-phase light fields. The experimental results of this study showed a fundamental possibility of forming optically complex waveguide structures in lithium niobate crystals with pyroelectric mechanism of nonlinear response. The topology of these structures is determined by the light field distribution on the input face of crystalline sample. The optical induction of channel waveguide elements by interacting spatial solitons makes it possible to design optical systems with a more complex topology and a possibility of their dynamic reconfiguration.

Keywords: self-action, soliton, lithium niobate, piroliton, photorefractive effect, pyroelectric effect

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Authors: Hayder H. Kareem, Ayad K. Hussein, Aseel A. Alkatib

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Groundwater accumulated at geological formations constitutes a worldwide vital water resource component which can be used to supply agriculture, industry, and domestic uses. The subsurface environment is affected by human activities; consequently, planning and sustainable management of aquifers require serious attention, especially as the world is exposed to the problem of global warming. Establishing accurate and efficient groundwater models will provide confident results for the behavior of the aquifer's system. The new approach, 'Distributed Value Property Zones,' available in Visual MODFLOW, is used to reconstruct the subsurface zones of the Al-Najaf region aquifer, and then its effect is compared with those manual and automated (PEST) approaches. Results show that the model has become more accurate with the use of the new approach, as the calibration and results analyses revealed. The assessment of the Al-Najaf region groundwater aquifer has revealed a degree of insufficiency of the required pumping demand, which reflects dry areas in both of the aquifer's layers. In addition, with pumping, the Euphrates River loses water of 7458 m³/day to the aquifer, while without pumping, it gains 28837 m³/day from the rainfall's recharge. The distributed value property zones approach achieves a precise groundwater model to assess the state of the Al-Najaf region aquifer.

Keywords: Al-Najaf region, distributed value property zones approach, hydraulic conductivity, groundwater modelling using visual MODFLOW

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Authors: Shadi Fathi, Moura Mehravar, Mujib Rahman

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Over the years,increased demands on railways, the emergence of high-speed trains and heavy axle loads, ageing, and deterioration of the existing tracks, is imposing costly maintenance actions on the railway sector. The need for developing a fast andcost-efficient non-destructive assessment method for the structural evaluation of railway tracksis therefore critically important. The layer modulus is the main parameter used in the structural design and evaluation of the railway track substructure (foundation). Among many recently developed NDTs, Falling Weight Deflectometer (FWD) test, widely used in pavement evaluation, has shown promising results for railway track substructure monitoring. The surface deflection data collected by FWD are used to estimate the modulus of substructure layers through the back-analysis technique. Although there are different commerciallyavailableback-analysis programs are used for pavement applications, there are onlya limited number of research-based techniques have been so far developed for railway track evaluation. In this paper, the suitability, accuracy, and reliability of the BAKFAAsoftware are investigated. The main rationale for selecting BAKFAA as it has a relatively straightforward user interfacethat is freely available and widely used in highway and airport pavement evaluation. As part of the study, a finite element (FE) model of a railway track section near Leominsterstation, Herefordshire, UK subjected to the FWD test, was developed and validated against available field data. Then, a virtual experimental database (including 218 sets of FWD testing data) was generated using theFE model and employed as the measured database for the BAKFAA software. This database was generated considering various layers’ moduli for each layer of track substructure over a predefined range. The BAKFAA predictions were compared against the cone penetration test (CPT) data (available from literature; conducted near to Leominster station same section as the FWD was performed). The results reveal that BAKFAA overestimatesthe layers’ moduli of each substructure layer. To adjust the BAKFA with the CPT data, this study introduces a correlation model to make the BAKFAA applicable in railway applications.

Keywords: back-analysis, bakfaa, railway track substructure, falling weight deflectometer (FWD), cone penetration test (CPT)

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Authors: David A. Olasehinde, Peter I. Olasehinde, Segun M. A. Adelana, Dapo O. Olasehinde

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An investigation was carried out on underground water system dynamics within Ilorin metropolis to monitor the subsurface flow and its corresponding pollution. Africa population growth rate is the highest among the regions of the world, especially in urban areas. A corresponding increase in waste generation and a change in waste composition from predominantly organic to non-organic waste has also been observed. Percolation of leachate from non-engineered landfills, the chief means of waste disposal in many of its cities, constitutes a threat to the underground water bodies. Ilorin city, a transboundary town in southwestern Nigeria, is a ready microcosm of Africa’s unique challenge. In spite of the fact that groundwater is naturally protected from common contaminants such as bacteria as the subsurface provides natural attenuation process, groundwater samples have been noted to however possesses relatively higher dissolved chemical contaminants such as bicarbonate, sodium, and chloride which poses a great threat to environmental receptors and human consumption. The Geographic Information System (GIS) was used as a tool to illustrate, subsurface dynamics and the corresponding pollutant indicators. Forty-four sampling points were selected around known groundwater pollutant, major old dumpsites without landfill liners. The results of the groundwater flow directions and the corresponding contaminant transport were presented using expert geospatial software. The experimental results were subjected to four descriptive statistical analyses, namely: principal component analysis, Pearson correlation analysis, scree plot analysis, and Ward cluster analysis. Regression model was also developed aimed at finding functional relationships that can adequately relate or describe the behaviour of water qualities and the hypothetical factors landfill characteristics that may influence them namely; distance of source of water body from dumpsites, static water level of groundwater, subsurface permeability (inferred from hydraulic gradient), and soil infiltration. The regression equations developed were validated using the graphical approach. Underground water seems to flow from the northern portion of Ilorin metropolis down southwards transporting contaminants. Pollution pattern in the study area generally assumed a bimodal pattern with the major concentration of the chemical pollutants in the underground watershed and the recharge. The correlation between contaminant concentrations and the spread of pollution indicates that areas of lower subsurface permeability display a higher concentration of dissolved chemical content. The principal component analysis showed that conductivity, suspended solids, calcium hardness, total dissolved solids, total coliforms, and coliforms were the chief contaminant indicators in the underground water system in the study area. Pearson correlation revealed a high correlation of electrical conductivity for many parameters analyzed. In the same vein, the regression models suggest that the heavier the molecular weight of a chemical contaminant of a pollutant from a point source, the greater the pollution of the underground water system at a short distance. The study concludes that the associative properties of landfill have a significant effect on groundwater quality in the study area.

Keywords: dumpsite, leachate, groundwater pollution, linear regression, principal component

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Authors: Heval Serhat Uluk, Sam M. Dakka, Kuldeep Singh, Richard Jefferson-Loveday

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This paper will focus on the suitability of a trapped vortex combustor as a candidate for gas turbine combustor objectives to minimize pressure drop across the combustor and investigate aerodynamic performance. Non-reacting simulation of axisymmetric cavity trapped vortex combustors were simulated to investigate the pressure drop for various cavity aspect ratios of 0.3, 0.6, and 1 and for air mass flow rates of 14 m/s, 28 m/s, and 42 m/s. A numerical study of an axisymmetric trapped vortex combustor was carried out by using two-dimensional and three-dimensional computational domains. A comparison study was conducted between Reynolds Averaged Navier Stokes (RANS) k-ε Realizable with enhanced wall treatment and RANS k-ω Shear Stress Transport (SST) models to find the most suitable turbulence model. It was found that the k-ω SST model gives relatively close results to experimental outcomes. The numerical results were validated and showed good agreement with the experimental data. Pressure drop rises with increasing air mass flow rate, and the lowest pressure drop was observed at 0.6 cavity aspect ratio for all air mass flow rates tested, which agrees with the experimental outcome. A mixing enhancement study showed that 30-degree angle air injectors provide improved fuel-air mixing.

Keywords: aerodynamic, computational fluid dynamics, propulsion, trapped vortex combustor

Procedia PDF Downloads 73

Authors: Sepehr Lajevardi Esfahani, Shohre Rouhani, Zahra Ranjbar

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Graphene has gained much attention owing to its unique optical and electrical properties. Charge carriers in graphene sheets (GS) carry out a linear dispersion relation near the Fermi energy and behave as massless Dirac fermions resulting in unusual attributes such as the quantum Hall effect and ambipolar electric field effect. It also exhibits nondispersive transport characteristics with an extremely high electron mobility (15000 cm²/(Vs)) at room temperature. Recently, several progresses have been achieved in the fabrication of single- or multilayer GS for functional device applications in the fields of optoelectronic such as field-effect transistors ultrasensitive sensors and organic photovoltaic cells. In addition to device applications, graphene also can serve as reinforcement to enhance mechanical, thermal, or electrical properties of composite materials. Electrophoretic deposition (EPD) is an attractive method for development of various coatings and films. It readily applied to any powdered solid that forms a stable suspension. The deposition parameters were controlled in various thicknesses. In this study, the graphene electrodeposition conditions were optimized. The results were obtained from SEM, Ohm resistance measuring technique and AFM characteristic tests. The minimum sheet resistance of electrodeposited reduced graphene oxide layers is achieved at conditions of 2 V in 10 s and it is annealed at 200 °C for 1 minute.

Keywords: electrophoretic deposition (EPD), graphene oxide (GO), electrical conductivity, electro-optical devices

Procedia PDF Downloads 174

Authors: Hatice Yildirim

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This study is an investigation into ‘The role of teaching assistants (TAs) for deaf pupils in an English primary school’, in order not only to contribute to the education of deaf pupils but also contribute to the literature, in which there has been a lack of attention paid to the role of TAs for deaf pupils. With this in mind, the research design was planned based on using a case study as a qualitative research approach in order to have a deep and first-hand understanding of the case for ‘the role of TAs for deaf pupils’ in a real-life context. 12 semi-structured classroom observations and six semi-structured interviews were carried out with four TAs and two teachers in one English mainstream primary school. The data analysis followed a thematic analysis framework. The results indicated that TAs are utilised based on a one-on-one support model and are deployed under the class teacher in the classroom. Out of the classroom activities are carried out in small groups with the agreement of the TAs and the class teacher, as per the policy of the school. Due to the one-on-one TA support model, the study pointed out the seven different roles carried out by TAs in the education of deaf pupils in an English mainstream primary school. While supporting deaf pupils academically and socially are the main roles of TAs, they also support deaf pupils by recording their progress, communicating with their parents, taking on a pastoral care role, tutoring them in additional support lessons, and raising awareness of deaf pupils’ issues.

Keywords: deaf, mainstream, teaching assistant, teaching assistant's roles

Procedia PDF Downloads 196

Authors: Sam S. Hashemi

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The breakage of bonding between sand particles and their dislodgment from the borehole wall are among the main factors resulting in a borehole failure in poorly cemented granular formations. The grain debonding usually precedes the borehole failure and it can be considered as a sign that the onset of the borehole collapse is imminent. Detecting the bonding breakage point and introducing an appropriate failure criterion will play an important role in borehole stability analysis. To study the influence of different factors on the initiation of sand bonding breakage at the borehole wall, a series of laboratory tests was designed and conducted on poorly cemented sand samples. The total absorbed strain energy per volume of material up to the point of the observed particle debonding was computed. The results indicated that the particle bonding breakage point at the borehole wall was reached both before and after the peak strength of the thick-walled hollow cylinder specimens depending on the stress path and cement content. Three different cement contents and two borehole sizes were investigated to study the influence of the bonding strength and scale on the particle dislodgment. Test results showed that the stress path has a significant influence on the onset of the sand bonding breakage. It was shown that for various stress paths, there is a near linear relationship between the absorbed energy and the normal effective mean stress.

Keywords: borehole stability, experimental studies, poorly cemented sands, total absorbed strain energy

Procedia PDF Downloads 194

Authors: Bahram Asghari Aghdam, Ali Mahjoub

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The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effect of emotional intelligence on the motivation and performance of East Azarbaijan the Red Crescent staff. In this study, EI is determined as the independent variable component of self awareness, self management, social awareness, and relations management, motivation and performance as dependent variables. The research method is descriptive-survey. In this study, simple random sampling method is used and research sample consists of 130 East Azarbaijan the Red Crescent staff that uses Cochran's formula 100 of them were selected and questionnaires were filled by them. Three types of questionnaires were used in this study for emotional intelligence, consisting of the Bradbury Travis and Jane Greaves standard questionnaire; and for motivation and performance a questionnaire is regulated by the researcher with help of professionals and experts in this field that consists of 33 questions about the motivation and 15 questions about performance and content validity were used to obtain the necessary credit. Reliability by using the Cronbach's alpha coefficient /948 was approved. Also, in this study to test the hypothesis of the Spearman correlation coefficient and linear regressions and determine fitness of variables' of structural equation modeling is used. The results show that emotional intelligence with coefficient /865, motivation and performance of in East Azerbaijan the Red Crescent employees has a positive effect. Based on Friedman Test ranking the most influence in motivation and performance of staff in respondents' opinion is in order of self-awareness, relations management, social awareness and self-management.

Keywords: emotional intelligence, self-awareness, self-management, social awareness, relations management, motivation, performance

Procedia PDF Downloads 455

Authors: Georgios Charizanos, Haydar Demirhan, Duygu Icen

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Two of the most impactful issues in classical logistic regression are class imbalance and complete separation. These can result in model predictions heavily leaning towards the imbalanced class on the binary response variable or over-fitting issues. Fuzzy methodology offers key solutions for handling these problems. However, most studies propose the transformation of the binary responses into a continuous format limited within [0,1]. This is called the possibilistic approach within fuzzy logistic regression. Following this approach is more aligned with straightforward regression since a logit-link function is not utilized, and fuzzy probabilities are not generated. In contrast, we propose a method of fuzzifying binary response variables that allows for the use of the logit-link function; hence, a probabilistic fuzzy logistic regression model with the Monte Carlo method. The fuzzy probabilities are then classified by selecting a fuzzy threshold. Different combinations of fuzzy and crisp input, output, and coefficients are explored, aiming to understand which of these perform better under different conditions of imbalance and separation. We conduct numerical experiments using both synthetic and real datasets to demonstrate the performance of the fuzzy logistic regression framework against seven crisp machine learning methods. The proposed framework shows better performance irrespective of the degree of imbalance and presence of separation in the data, while the considered machine learning methods are significantly impacted.

Keywords: fuzzy logistic regression, fuzzy, logistic, machine learning

Procedia PDF Downloads 53

Authors: Reza Alikhani

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This research focuses on the establishment of horizontal cooperation among companies to enhance their operational efficiency and competitiveness. The study proposes an approach to horizontal collaboration, called coalition configuration, which involves partnering companies sharing distribution centers in a network design problem. The paper investigates which coalition should be formed in each distribution center to minimize the total cost of the network. Moreover, potential uncertainties, such as operational and disruption risks, are considered during the collaborative design phase. To address this problem, a two-stage robust optimization model for collaborative distribution network design under surging demand and facility disruptions is presented, along with a column-and-constraint generation algorithm to obtain exact solutions tailored to the proposed formulation. Extensive numerical experiments are conducted to analyze solutions obtained by the model in various scenarios, including decisions ranging from fully centralized to fully decentralized settings, collaborative versus non-collaborative approaches, and different amounts of uncertainty budgets. The results show that the coalition formation mechanism proposes some solutions that are competitive with the savings of the grand coalition. The research also highlights that collaboration increases network flexibility and resilience while reducing costs associated with demand and capacity uncertainties.

Keywords: logistics, warehouse sharing, robust facility location, collaboration for resilience

Procedia PDF Downloads 53

Authors: Dai-Ling Li, Jung-Fa Cheng, Min-Lang Huang, Yun-Yao Chi

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The hedonic pricing model has been popularly applied to describe the economic value of environmental amenities in urban housing, but the results for cultural heritage variables remain relatively ambiguous. In this paper, integrated variables extending by GIS-based data and an existing typology of communities used to examine how cultural heritage and environmental amenities and disamenities affect housing prices across urban communities in Tainan, Taiwan. The developed models suggest that, although a sophisticated variable for central services is selected, the centrality of location is not fully controlled in the price models and thus picked up by correlated peripheral and central amenities such as cultural heritage, open space or parks. Analysis of these correlations permits us to qualify results and present a revised set of relatively reliable estimates. Positive effects on housing prices are identified for views, various types of recreational infrastructure and vicinity of nationally cultural sites and significant landscapes. Negative effects are found for several disamenities including wasteyards, refuse incinerators, petrol stations and industries. The results suggest that systematic hypothesis testing and reporting of correlations may contribute to consistent explanatory patterns in hedonic pricing estimates for cultural heritage and landscape amenities in urban.

Keywords: hedonic pricing model, cultural heritage, landscape amenities, housing

Procedia PDF Downloads 325