Search results for: estimations of probability distributions

Authors: Jinyan Li, Simon Fong, Raymond Wong, Mohammed Sabah, Fiaidhi Jinan

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Clinical data analysis and forecasting have make great contributions to disease control, prevention and detection. However, such data usually suffer from highly unbalanced samples in class distributions. In this paper, we target at the binary imbalanced dataset, where the positive samples take up only the minority. We investigate two different meta-heuristic algorithms, particle swarm optimization and bat-inspired algorithm, and combine both of them with the synthetic minority over-sampling technique (SMOTE) for processing the datasets. One approach is to process the full dataset as a whole. The other is to split up the dataset and adaptively process it one segment at a time. The experimental results reveal that while the performance improvements obtained by the former methods are not scalable to larger data scales, the later one, which we call Adaptive Swarm Balancing Algorithms, leads to significant efficiency and effectiveness improvements on large datasets. We also find it more consistent with the practice of the typical large imbalanced medical datasets. We further use the meta-heuristic algorithms to optimize two key parameters of SMOTE. Leading to more credible performances of the classifier, and shortening the running time compared with the brute-force method.

Keywords: Imbalanced dataset, meta-heuristic algorithm, SMOTE, big data

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Authors: Po-Jen Su, Huann-Ming Chou

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In this article we uses the residual correction method to deal with transient thermoelastic problems with a hollow spherical region when the continuum medium possesses spherically isotropic thermoelastic properties. Based on linear thermoelastic theory, the equations of hyperbolic heat conduction and thermoelastic motion were combined to establish the thermoelastic dynamic model with consideration of the deformation acceleration effect and non-Fourier effect under the condition of transient thermal shock. The approximate solutions of temperature and displacement distributions are obtained using the residual correction method based on the maximum principle in combination with the finite difference method, making it easier and faster to obtain upper and lower approximations of exact solutions. The proposed method is found to be an effective numerical method with satisfactory accuracy. Moreover, the result shows that the effect of transient thermal shock induced by deformation acceleration is enhanced by non-Fourier heat conduction with increased peak stress. The influence on the stress increases with the thermal relaxation time.

Keywords: maximum principle, non-Fourier heat conduction, residual correction method, thermo-elastic response

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Authors: Luis M. Ribeiro, Jorge Raposo, Ricardo Oliveira, David Caballero, Domingos X. Viegas

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Under the scope of European project WUIWATCH a set of experimental tests on house vulnerability was performed in order to assess the resistance of selected house components during the passage of a forest fire. Among the individual elements most affected by the passage of a wildfire the windows are the ones with greater exposure. In this sense, a set of exploratory experimental tests was designed to assess some particular aspects related to the vulnerability of windows and blinds. At the same time, the importance of leaving them closed (as well as the doors inside a house) during a wild fire was explored in order to give some scientific background to guidelines for homeowners. Three sets of tests were performed: 1. Windows and blinds resistance to heat. Three types of protective blinds were tested (aluminium, PVC and wood) on 2 types of windows (single and double pane). The objective was to assess the structures resistance. 2. The influence of air flow on the transport of burning embers inside a house. A room was built to scale, and placed inside a wind tunnel, with one window and one door on opposite sides. The objective was to assess the importance of leaving an inside door opened on the probability of burning embers entering the room. 3. The influence of the dimension of openings on a window or door related to the probability of ignition inside a house. The objective was to assess the influence of different window openings in relation to the amount of burning particles that can enter a house. The main results were: 1. The purely radiative heat source provides 1.5 KW/m2 of heat impact in the structure, while the real fire generates 10 Kw/m2. When protected by the blind, the single pane window reaches 30ºC on both sides, and the double pane window has a differential of 10º from the side facing the heat (30ºC) and the opposite side (40ºC). Unprotected window constantly increases temperature until the end of the test. Window blinds reach considerably higher temperatures. PVC loses its consistency above 150ºC and melts. 2. Leaving the inside door closed results in a positive pressure differential of +1Pa from the outside to the inside, inhibiting the air flow. Opening the door in half or full reverts the pressure differential to -6 and -8 times respectively, favouring the air flow from the outside to the inside. The number of particles entering the house follows the same tendency. 3. As the bottom opening in a window increases from 0,5 cm to 4 cm the number of particles that enter the house per second also increases greatly. From 5 cm until 80cm there is no substantial increase in the number of entering particles. This set of exploratory tests proved to be an added value in supporting guidelines for home owners, regarding self-protection in WUI areas.

Keywords: forest fire, wildland urban interface, house vulnerability, house protective elements

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Authors: Igor Kuzminov

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Till now, the nature of lightning is not established. A hypothesis of the origin of lightning is proposed. The lightning charge is formed by electromagnetic induction. The role of the conductor is performed by the air mass of the cloud. This conductor moves in the Earth's magnetic field. The upper and lower edges of the cloud are the plates of the capacitor. Lightning is a special case of electromagnetic processes in an atmosphere. The category of lightning occurs in the process of accumulation of a charge. The process of accumulation goes constantly, but the charge is not fixed. Naturally, the hypothesis demands the carrying out of additional experiments and official acknowledgement. As the proof of a hypothesis can serve that the maximal lighting activity in an equatorial zone where cosφ it is close to 1. An experiment conducted privately showed that there is a potential difference in the atmosphere at different levels. The probability of applied value development of power installation is great.

Keywords: electromagnetic induction, Earth's magnetic field, plates of the capacitors, charge accumulation

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Authors: Jian Xu, Xiaochun Yun, Yongzheng Zhang, Yafei Sang, Zhenyu Cheng

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Network attack prevention is a critical research area of information security. Network attack would be oppressed if attribution techniques are capable to trace back to the attackers after the hacking event. Therefore attributing these attacks to a particular identification becomes one of the important tasks when analysts attempt to differentiate and profile the attacker behind a piece of attack trace. To assist analysts in expose attackers behind the scenes, this paper researches on the connections between attribution traces and proposes probabilistic relevance based attribution patterns. This method facilitates the evaluation of the plausibility relevance between different traceable identifications. Furthermore, through analyzing the connections among traces, it could confirm the existence probability of a certain organization as well as discover its affinitive partners by the means of drawing relevance matrix from attribution traces.

Keywords: attribution trace, probabilistic relevance, network attack, attacker identification

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Authors: Wafa’ Alma'Aitah, Khaled Almakadmeh

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this study presents an information retrieval system of using genetic algorithm to increase information retrieval efficiency. Using vector space model, information retrieval is based on the similarity measurement between query and documents. Documents with high similarity to query are judge more relevant to the query and should be retrieved first. Using genetic algorithms, each query is represented by a chromosome; these chromosomes are fed into genetic operator process: selection, crossover, and mutation until an optimized query chromosome is obtained for document retrieval. Results show that information retrieval with adaptive crossover probability and single point type crossover and roulette wheel as selection type give the highest recall. The proposed approach is verified using (242) proceedings abstracts collected from the Saudi Arabian national conference.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, information retrieval, optimal queries, crossover

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Authors: Karina Zaccari, Ernesto Cordeiro Marujo

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This paper presents a Machine Learning (ML) approach to support Meningitis diagnosis in patients at a children’s hospital in Sao Paulo, Brazil. The aim is to use ML techniques to reduce the use of invasive procedures, such as cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) collection, as much as possible. In this study, we focus on predicting the probability of Meningitis given the results of a blood and urine laboratory tests, together with the analysis of pain or other complaints from the patient. We tested a number of different ML algorithms, including: Adaptative Boosting (AdaBoost), Decision Tree, Gradient Boosting, K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN), Logistic Regression, Random Forest and Support Vector Machines (SVM). Decision Tree algorithm performed best, with 94.56% and 96.18% accuracy for training and testing data, respectively. These results represent a significant aid to doctors in diagnosing Meningitis as early as possible and in preventing expensive and painful procedures on some children.

Keywords: machine learning, medical diagnosis, meningitis detection, pediatric research

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Authors: Rigers Dodaj

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Nowadays, the environment is a critical goal for civil engineers, human activity, construction projects, economic growth, and whole national development. Regarding the development of Albania's economy, people's living standards are increasing, and the requirements for the living environment are also increasing. Under these circumstances, environmental protection and sustainability this is the critical issue. The rising industrialization, urbanization, and energy demand affect the environment by emission of carbon dioxide gas (CO2), a significant parameter known to impact air pollution directly. Consequently, many governments and international organizations conducted policies and regulations to address environmental degradation in the pursuit of economic development, for instance in Albania, the CO2 emission calculated in metric tons per capita has increased by 23% in the last 20 years. This paper analyzes the importance of civil engineering and economic growth in the sustainability of the environment focusing on CO2 emission. The analyzed data are time series 2001 - 2020 (with annual frequency), based on official publications of the World Bank. The statistical approach with vector error correction model and time series forecasting model are used to perform the parameter’s estimations and long-run equilibrium. The research in this paper adds a new perspective to the evaluation of a sustainable environment in the context of carbon emission reduction. Also, it provides reference and technical support for the government toward green and sustainable environmental policies. In the context of low-carbon development, effectively improving carbon emission efficiency is an inevitable requirement for achieving sustainable economic and environmental protection. Also, the study reveals that civil engineering development projects impact greatly the environment in the long run, especially in areas of flooding, noise pollution, water pollution, erosion, ecological disorder, natural hazards, etc. The potential for reducing industrial carbon emissions in recent years indicates that reduction is becoming more difficult, it needs another economic growth policy and more civil engineering development, by improving the level of industrialization and promoting technological innovation in industrial low-carbonization.

Keywords: CO₂ emission, civil engineering, economic growth, environmental sustainability

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Authors: T. Pedersen, A. Lindfeldt

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The minimum dwell time is an important part of railway timetable planning. Due to its stochastic behaviour, the minimum dwell time should be considered to create resilient timetables. While there has been significant focus on how to determine and estimate dwell times, to our knowledge, little research has been carried out regarding temporal and running direction variations of these. In this paper, we examine how the minimum dwell time varies depending on temporal factors such as the time of day, day of the week and time of the year. We also examine how it is affected by running direction and station type. The minimum dwell time is estimated by means of track occupation data. A method is proposed to ensure that only minimum dwell times and not planned dwell times are acquired from the track occupation data. The results show that on an aggregated level, the average minimum dwell times in both running directions at a station are similar. However, when temporal factors are considered, there are significant variations. The minimum dwell time varies throughout the day with peak hours having the longest dwell times. It is also found that the minimum dwell times are influenced by weekday, and in particular, weekends are found to have lower minimum dwell times than most other days. The findings show that there is a potential to significantly improve timetable planning by taking minimum dwell time variations into account.

Keywords: minimum dwell time, operations quality, timetable planning, track occupation data

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Authors: Dalson Figueiredo, Enivaldo Rocha, Ranulfo Paranhos, José Alexandre

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This paper analyzes the effects of institutional capacity on corruption. Methodologically, the research design combines both descriptive and multivariate statistics to examine two original datasets based on secondary data. In particular, we employ a principal component model to estimate an indicator of institutional capacity for both state audit institutions and subnational judiciary courts. Then, we estimate the effect of institutional capacity on two dependent variables: (1) incidence of administrative irregularities and (2) time elapsed to judge corruption cases. The preliminary results using ordinary least squares, negative binomial and Tobit models suggest the same conclusions: higher the institutional audit capacity, higher is the probability of detecting a corruption case. On the other hand, higher the institutional capacity of state judiciary, the lower is the time to judge corruption cases.

Keywords: institutional capacity, corruption, state level institutions, evidence from Brazil

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Authors: Jovanca Smith, Derek Gay

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All universities possess a standard by which students are assessed and administered into their programs. This paper considers the effect of the educational history of students, as measured by specific subject grades in Caribbean examinations, on overall performance in introductory engineering math and mechanics courses. Results reflect a correlation between the highest grade in the Caribbean examinations with a higher probability of successful advancement in the university courses. Alternatively, lower entrance grades are commensurate with underperformance in the university courses. Results also demonstrate that students matriculating with the Caribbean examinations will not necessarily possess a significant advantage over students entering through an alternative route, and while previous educational background of students is a significant indicator of tentative performance in the University level math and mechanics courses, it is not the sole factor.

Keywords: bimodal distribution, differential learning, engineering education, entrance qualification

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Authors: Mary Chriselda A

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This paper deals with the fact that the Hubble's parameter is not constant and tends to vary stochastically with time. This premise has been proven by converting it to a stochastic differential equation using the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. The formulated stochastic differential equation is further solved analytically using the Euler and the Kolmogorov Forward equations, thereby obtaining the probability density function using the Fourier transformation, thereby proving that the Hubble's parameter varies stochastically. This is further corroborated by simulating the observations using Python and R-software for validation of the premise postulated. We can further draw conclusion that the randomness in forces affecting the white noise can eventually affect the Hubble’s Parameter leading to scale invariance and thereby causing stochastic fluctuations in the density and the rate of expansion of the Universe.

Keywords: Chapman Kolmogorov forward differential equations, fourier transformation, hubble's parameter, ornstein-uhlenbeck process , stochastic differential equations

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Authors: Azam Bayat, Aref Khalkhali, Ali Reza Mahjoub

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Healthy and viable herbal supplement were prepared from wheat by a green route. This organic biomaterial was named Nutrition Bio-shield Superfood (NBS). The NBS supplement had various vitamins, macro and micro molecules, and ingredients. In this study, 20 small Balb/C labile specimens were used in a weighing 30 ± 5 range. The samples were randomly divided into different groups, then the groups were divided into 5 groups. According to the results of this study, the mean number of white blood cells and neutrophil percentage in the experimental group receiving healthy and live dietary supplement showed a significant increase at the 5% probability level in all three groups received 50, 100 and 150 mg/ kg body weight of the mouse compared to the control group. In general, the dietary supplement increases the level of immunity.

Keywords: healthy and live herbal supplement, biomaterial, immune system, enhancement

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Authors: Christoph Ramsauer, Jaydeep Karandikar, Tony Schmitz, Friedrich Bleicher

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Machining stability is an important limitation to discrete part machining. In this work, a networked implementation of milling stability optimization with Bayesian learning is presented. The milling process was monitored with a wireless sensory tool holder instrumented with an accelerometer at the Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria. The recorded data from a milling test cut is used to classify the cut as stable or unstable based on the frequency analysis. The test cut result is fed to a Bayesian stability learning algorithm at the University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee, USA. The algorithm calculates the probability of stability as a function of axial depth of cut and spindle speed and recommends the parameters for the next test cut. The iterative process between two transatlantic locations repeats until convergence to a stable optimal process parameter set is achieved.

Keywords: machining stability, machine learning, sensor, optimization

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Authors: Zhou Xiong, Kang Shao Bo, Yang Bo

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To date, high-performance structural steel has been widely used for columns in construction practices due to its significant advantages over conventional steel. However, the same design approach with conventional steel columns is still adopted in the design of high-performance steel columns. As a result, its superior properties cannot be fully considered in design. This paper conducts a test and finite element analysis on the overall stability behaviour of welded Q460GJ steel box columns. In the test, four steel columns with different slenderness and width-to-thickness ratio were compressed under an axial compression testing machine. And finite element models were established in which material nonlinearity and residual stress distributions of test columns were included. Then, comparisons were made between test results and finite element result, it showed that finite element analysis results are agree well with the test result. It means that the test and finite element model are reliable. Then, we compared the test result with the design value calculated by current code, the result showed that Q460GJ steel box columns have the higher overall buckling capacity than the design value. It is necessary to update the design curves for Q460GJ steel columns so that the overall stability capacity of Q460GJ box columns can be designed appropriately.

Keywords: axial compression, box columns, global buckling, numerical simulations, Q460GJ steel

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Authors: Faranak Felfeliyan, Parvaneh Shokrani, Maryam Atarod

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Introduction Using electron beam is widespread in radiotherapy. The main criteria in radiation therapy is to irradiate the tumor volume with maximum prescribed dose and minimum dose to vital organs around it. Using abutting fields is common in radiotherapy. The main problem in using abutting fields is dose inhomogeneity in the junction region. Electron beam divergence and lateral scattering may lead to hot and cold spots in the junction region. One solution for this problem is using of a spoiler to broaden the penumbra and uniform dose in the junction region. The goal of this research was to compare titanium and aluminum effects as a spoiler for dose uniformity achievement in the junction region of oblique electron fields with Monte Carlo simulation. Dose uniformity in the junction region depends on density, scattering power, thickness of the spoiler and the angle between two fields. Materials and Methods In this study, Monte Carlo model of Siemens Primus linear accelerator was simulated for a 5 MeV nominal energy electron beam using manufacture provided specifications. BEAMnrc and EGSnrc user code were used to simulate the treatment head in electron mode (simulation of beam model). The resulting phase space file was used as a source for dose calculations for 10×10 cm2 field size at SSD=100 cm in a 30×30×45 cm3 water phantom using DOSXYZnrc user code (dose calculations). An automatic MP3-M water phantom tank, MEPHYSTO mc2 software platform and a Semi-Flex Chamber-31010 with sensitive vol­ume of 0.125 cm3 (PTW, Freiburg, Germany) were used for dose distribution measurements. Moreover, the electron field size was 10×10 cm2 and SSD=100 cm. Validation of devel­oped beam model was done by comparing the measured and calculated depth and lateral dose distributions (verification of electron beam model). Simulation of spoilers (using SLAB compo­nent module) placed at the end of the electron applicator, was done using previously vali­dated phase space file for a 5 MeV nominal energy and 10×10 cm2 field size (simulation of spoiler). An in-house routine was developed in order to calculate the combined isodose curves re­sulting from the two simulated abutting fields (calculation of dose distribution in abutting electron fields). Results Verification of the developed 5.9 MeV elec­tron beam model was done by comparing the calculated and measured dose distributions. The maximum percentage difference between calculated and measured PDD was 1%, except for the build-up region in which the difference was 2%. The difference between calculated and measured profile was 2% at the edges of the field and less than 1% in other regions. The effect of PMMA, aluminum, titanium and chromium in dose uniformity achievement in abutting normal electron fields with equivalent thicknesses to 5mm PMMA was evaluated. Comparing R90 and uniformity index of different materials, aluminum was chosen as the optimum spoiler. Titanium has the maximum surface dose. Thus, aluminum and titanium had been chosen to use for dose uniformity achievement in oblique electron fields. Using the optimum beam spoiler, junction dose decreased from 160% to 110% for 15 degrees, from 180% to 120% for 30 degrees, from 160% to 120% for 45 degrees and from 180% to 100% for 60 degrees oblique abutting fields. Using Titanium spoiler, junction dose decreased from 160% to 120% for 15 degrees, 180% to 120% for 30 degrees, 160% to 120% for 45 degrees and 180% to 110% for 60 degrees. In addition, penumbra width for 15 degrees, without spoiler in the surface was 10 mm and was increased to 15.5 mm with titanium spoiler. For 30 degrees, from 9 mm to 15 mm, for 45 degrees from 4 mm to 6 mm and for 60 degrees, from 5 mm to 8 mm. Conclusion Using spoilers, penumbra width at the surface increased, size and depth of hot spots was decreased and dose homogeneity improved at the junc­tion of abutting electron fields. Dose at the junction region of abutting oblique fields was improved significantly by using spoiler. Maximum dose at the junction region for 15⁰, 30⁰, 45⁰ and 60⁰ was decreased about 40%, 60%, 40% and 70% respectively for Titanium and about 50%, 60%, 40% and 80% for Aluminum. Considering significantly decrease in maximum dose using titanium spoiler, unfortunately, dose distribution in the junction region was not decreased less than 110%.

Keywords: abutting fields, electron beam, radiation therapy, spoilers

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Authors: Wafa' Alsharafat, Suhila Farhan Abu-Owida

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Genetic algorithm (GA) is a powerful evolutionary searching technique that is used successfully to solve and optimize problems in different research areas. Genetic Algorithm (GA) considered as one of optimization methods used to solve Travel salesman Problem (TSP). The feasibility of GA in finding a TSP solution is dependent on GA operators; encoding method, population size, termination criteria, in general. In specific, crossover and its probability play a significant role in finding possible solutions for Symmetric TSP (STSP). In addition, the crossover should be determined and enhanced in term reaching optimal or at least near optimal. In this paper, we spot the light on using a modified crossover method called modified sequential constructive crossover and its impact on reaching optimal solution. To justify the relevance of a parameter value in solving the TSP, a set comparative analysis conducted on different crossover methods values.

Keywords: genetic algorithm, crossover, mutation, TSP

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Authors: Andrey V. Timofeev

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This paper introduces an original method for guaranteed estimation of the accuracy of an ensemble of Lipschitz classifiers. The solution was obtained as a finite closed set of alternative hypotheses, which contains an object of classification with a probability of not less than the specified value. Thus, the classification is represented by a set of hypothetical classes. In this case, the smaller the cardinality of the discrete set of hypothetical classes is, the higher is the classification accuracy. Experiments have shown that if the cardinality of the classifiers ensemble is increased then the cardinality of this set of hypothetical classes is reduced. The problem of the guaranteed estimation of the accuracy of an ensemble of Lipschitz classifiers is relevant in the multichannel classification of target events in C-OTDR monitoring systems. Results of suggested approach practical usage to accuracy control in C-OTDR monitoring systems are present.

Keywords: Lipschitz classifiers, confidence set, C-OTDR monitoring, classifiers accuracy, classifiers ensemble

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Authors: Muhammad Sameer Ahmed, Piotr Remlein, Tansal Gucluoglu

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The technique called as Generalized frequency division multiplexing (GFDM) used in the free space optical channel can be a good option for implementation free space optical communication systems. This technique has several strengths e.g. good spectral efficiency, low peak-to-average power ratio (PAPR), adaptability and low co-channel interference. In this paper, the impact of weather conditions such as haze, rain and fog on GFDM over the gamma-gamma channel model is discussed. A Trade off between link distance and system performance under intense weather conditions is also analysed. The symbol error probability (SEP) of GFDM over the gamma-gamma turbulence channel is derived and verified with the computer simulations.

Keywords: free space optics, generalized frequency division multiplexing, weather conditions, gamma gamma distribution

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Authors: Niyiragira Sixte, Jules Verne Nakimana

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Introduction: Alcoholism is gradually becoming a public health issue due to its frequency, which continues to increase, especially in schools and at young ages. The general objective of the study was to contribute to the determination of the factors associated with alcohol consumption among young people. Methodology: This descriptive and analytical cross-sectional study entitled “Study of factors associated with alcohol consumption among young people aged 15 to 24. The study was conducted using a non-probability method, and the sampling technique was for convenience. The data collection technique used was the survey by questionnaire and the exploitation of the documentary. Microsoft Word 2013, Microsoft Excel 2.13 and EPI INFO7 software were used for this purpose. Results: The results of in study showed that 43.36% of the students surveyed took alcohol, and the factors associated with alcohol consumption are: religion, smoking and influence from friends. Conclusion: The prevalence of alcohol consumption among young people is very high, and awareness is more than necessary to prevent alcohol-related harm among young people.

Keywords: consumption, alcohol, young people, factors

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Authors: Gulnaz Erkomaishvili

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The article analyzes the modern level of industrial production in Georgia, shows the export-import of industrial products and evaluates the results of the activities of institutions implementing industrial policy. The research showed us that the level of development of industry in the country and its export potential are quite low. The article concludes that in the modern phase of industrial development, the country should choose a model focused on technological development and maximum growth of export potential. Objectives. The aim of the research is to develop an economic policy that promotes the development of industry and to look for ways to implement it effectively. Methodologies This paper uses general and specific methods, in particular, analysis, synthesis, induction, deduction, scientific abstraction, comparative and statistical methods, as well as experts’ evaluation. In-depth interviews with experts were conducted to determine quantitative and qualitative indicators; Publications of the National Statistics Office of Georgia are used to determine the regularity between analytical and statistical estimations. Also, theoretical and applied research of international organizations and scientist-economists are used. Contributions Based on the identified challenges in the area of industry, recommendations for the implementation of an active industrial policy in short and long term periods were developed. In particular: the government's priority orientation of industrial development; paying special attention to the processing industry sectors that Georgia has the potential to produce; supporting the development of scientific fields; Determination of certain benefits for those investors who invest money in industrial production; State partnership with the private sector, manifested in the fight against bureaucracy, corruption and crime, creating favorable business conditions for entrepreneurs; Coordination between education - science - production should be implemented in the country. Much attention should be paid to basic scientific research, which does not require purely commercial returns in the short term, science should become a real productive force; Special importance should be given to the creation of an environment that will support the expansion of export-oriented production; Overcoming barriers to entry into export markets.

Keywords: industry, sectoral structure of industry, exsport-import of industrial products, industrial policy

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Authors: Mohamed Raouf Benmakrelouf, Wafa Karouche, Joseph Rynkiewicz

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In this paper, we propose an alternative method to construct a Bayesian Network (BN). This method relies on a convolutional neural network (CNN classifier), which determinates the edges of the network skeleton. We train a CNN on a normalized empirical probability density distribution (NEPDF) for predicting causal interactions and relationships. We have to find the optimal Bayesian network structure for causal inference. Indeed, we are undertaking a search for pair-wise causality, depending on considered causal assumptions. In order to avoid unreasonable causal structure, we consider a blacklist and a whitelist of causality senses. We tested the method on real data to assess the influence of education on the voting intention for the extreme right-wing party. We show that, with this method, we get a safer causal structure of variables (Bayesian Network) and make to identify a variable that satisfies the backdoor criterion.

Keywords: Bayesian network, structure learning, optimal search, convolutional neural network, causal inference

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Authors: Azadeh Safadoust, Ali Akbar Mahboubi

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A study was conducted to evaluate hydraulic properties of a sandy loam soil and corn (Zea mays L.) crop production under a short-term tillage and manure combinations field experiment carried out in west of Iran. Treatments included composted cattle manure application rates [0, 30, and 60 Mg (dry weight) ha-1] and tillage systems [no-tillage (NT), chisel plowing (CP), and moldboard plowing (MP)] arranged in a split-plot design. Soil water characteristic curve (SWCC) and saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ks) were significantly affected by manure and tillage treatments. At any matric suction, the soil water content was in the order of MP>CP>NT. At all matric suctions, the amount of water retained by the soil increased as manure application rate increased (i.e. 60>30>0 Mg ha-1). Similar to the tillage effects, at high suctions the differences of water retained due to manure addition were less than that at low suctions. The change of SWCC from tillage methods and manure applications may attribute to the change of pore size and aggregate size distributions. Soil Ks was in the order of CP>MP>NT for the first two layers and in the order of MP>CP and NT for the deeper soil layer. The Ks also increased with increasing rates of manure application (i.e. 60>30>0 Mg ha-1). This was due to the increase in the total pore size and continuity.

Keywords: corn, manure, saturated hydraulic conductivity, soil water characteristic curve, tillage

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Authors: Baziana Peristera

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The idea of the asynchronous transmission in wavelength division multiplexing (WDM) ring MANs is studied in this paper. Especially, we present an efficient access technique to coordinate the collisions-free transmission of the variable sizes of IP traffic in WDM ring core networks. Each node is equipped with a tunable transmitter and a tunable receiver. In this way, all the wavelengths are exploited for both transmission and reception. In order to evaluate the performance measures of average throughput, queuing delay and packet dropping probability at the buffers, a simulation model that assumes symmetric access rights among the nodes is developed based on Poisson statistics. Extensive numerical results show that the proposed protocol achieves apart from high bandwidth exploitation for a wide range of offered load, fairness of queuing delay and dropping events among the different packets size categories.

Keywords: asynchronous transmission, collision avoidance, wavelength division multiplexing, WDM

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Authors: Alvaro L. Ronco

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Background and purpose: Although our country is a developing one, it has a typical Western meat-rich dietary style. Based on estimates of heme and nonheme iron contents in representative foods, we carried out the present epidemiologic study, with the aim of accurately analyzing dietary iron and its role on CRC risk. Subjects/methods: Patients (611 CRC incident cases and 2394 controls, all belonging to public hospitals of our capital city) were interviewed through a questionnaire including socio-demographic, reproductive and lifestyle variables, and a food frequency questionnaire of 64 items, which asked about food intake 5 years before the interview. The sample included 1937 men and 1068 women. Controls were matched by sex and age (± 5 years) to cases. Food-derived nutrients were calculated from available databases. Total dietary iron was calculated and classified by heme or nonheme source, following data of specific Dutch and Canadian studies, and additionally adjusted by energy. Odds Ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals were calculated through unconditional logistic regression, adjusting for relevant potential confounders (education, body mass index, family history of cancer, energy, infusions, and others). A heme/nonheme (H/NH) ratio was created and the interest variables were categorized into tertiles, for analysis purposes. Results: The following risk estimations correspond to the highest tertiles. Total iron intake showed no association with CRC risk neither among men (OR=0.83, ptrend =.18) nor among women (OR=1.48, ptrend =.09). Heme iron was positively associated among men (OR=1.88, ptrend < .001) and for the overall sample (OR=1.44, ptrend =.002), however, it was not associated among women (OR=0.91, ptrend =.83). Nonheme iron showed an inverse association among men (OR=0.53, ptrend < .001) and the overall sample (OR=0.78, ptrend =.04), but was not associated among women (OR=1.46, ptrend =.14). Regarding H/NH ratio, risks increased only among men (OR=2.12, ptrend < .001) but lacked of association among women (OR=0.81, ptrend =.29). Conclusions. We have observed different types of associations between CRC risk and high dietary heme, nonheme and H/NH iron ratio. Therefore, the source of the available iron might be of importance as a link to colorectal carcinogenesis, perhaps pointing to reconsider the animal/plant proportions of this vital mineral within diet. Nevertheless, the different associations observed for each sex, demand further studies in order to clarify these points.

Keywords: chelation, colorectal cancer, heme, iron, nonheme

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Authors: Olaniyi Awe, Adelana R. Adetunji, Abraham Adeleke

Abstract:

Mining of alluvial gold ore by artisanal miners has been going on for decades at Itagunmodi, Southwestern Nigeria. In order to optimize the traditional panning gravity separation method commonly used in the area, a mineral particle size analysis study is critical. This study analyzed alluvial gold ore samples collected at identified five different locations in the area with a view to determine the ore particle size distributions. 500g measured of as-received alluvial gold ore sample was introduced into the uppermost sieve of an electrical sieve shaker consisting of sieves arranged in the order of decreasing nominal apertures of 5600μm, 3350μm, 2800μm, 355μm, 250μm, 125μm and 90μm, and operated for 20 minutes. The amount of material retained on each sieve was measured and tabulated for analysis. A screen analysis graph using the Gaudin Schuman method was drawn for each of the screen tests on the alluvial samples. The study showed that the percentages of fine particle size -125+90 μm fraction were 45.00%, 36.00%, 39.60%, 43.00% and 36.80% for the selected samples. These primary ore characteristic results provide reference data for the alluvial gold ore processing method selection, process performance measurement and optimization.

Keywords: alluvial gold ore, sieve shaker, particle size, Gaudin Schumann

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Authors: Abbas R. Ali, Daroon Hasan Khorsheed

Abstract:

Twenty one samples of stream sediments were collected from the Diyala River Basin (DRB), which represent one of three major tributaries of the Tigris River at northeastern Iraq. This study is concerned with the heavy minerals (HM) analysis in the + 63μ m fraction of the Diyala River sediments, distribution pattern in the various river basin sectors, as well as comparing the present results with previous works.The metastable heavy minerals (epidote, staurolite, garnet) represent more than (30%) Whereas the ultrastable heavy minerals (pyroxene and amphibole) make only about (19 %). Opaques are present in high proportions reaching about (29%) as an average. The ultrastable (zircon, tourmaline, rutile) heavy minerals are the miner constituents (7%) in the sediments.According to the laboratory analytical data of heavy mineral distributions the studied sediments are derived from mafic and ultramafic rocks are found in northeastern Iraq that represent Walash – Nawpordan Series and Mawat complexes in Zagros zones. The presence of zircon and tourmaline in trace amounts may give an indication for the weak role of acidic rocks in the source area whereas the epidote group minerals give an indication for the role of metamorphic rocks.

Keywords: heavy minerals, mineral distribution, recent stream sediment, Diyala river, northeastern Iraq

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Authors: Nathainail Bashir, Neil Anderson

Abstract:

The objective of this study site was to investigate the current state of the practice with regards to karst detection methods and recommend the best method and pattern of arrays to acquire the desire results. Proper site investigation in karst prone regions is extremely valuable in determining the location of possible voids. Two geophysical techniques were employed: multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) and electric resistivity tomography (ERT).The MASW data was acquired at each test location using different array lengths and different array orientations (to increase the probability of getting interpretable data in karst terrain). The ERT data were acquired using a dipole-dipole array consisting of 168 electrodes. The MASW data was interpreted (re: estimated depth to physical top of rock) and used to constrain and verify the interpretation of the ERT data. The ERT data indicates poorer quality MASW data were acquired in areas where there was significant local variation in the depth to top of rock.

Keywords: dipole-dipole, ERT, Karst terrains, MASW

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Authors: Ionel D. Craiu, Mihai Nedelcu

Abstract:

Thin-walled cylinders are often used by the offshore industry as columns of floating installations. Based on observed strains, the inverse Finite Element Method (iFEM) may rebuild the deformation of structures. Structural Health Monitoring uses this approach extensively. However, the number of in-situ strain gauges is what determines how accurate it is, and for shell structures with complicated deformation, this number can easily become too high for practical use. Any thin-walled beam member's complicated deformation can be modeled by the Generalized Beam Theory (GBT) as a linear combination of pre-specified cross-section deformation modes. GBT uses bar finite elements as opposed to shell finite elements. This paper proposes an iFEM/GBT formulation for the shape sensing of thin-walled cylinders based on these benefits. This method significantly reduces the number of strain gauges compared to using the traditional inverse-shell finite elements. Using numerical simulations, dent damage detection is achieved by comparing the strain distributions of the undamaged and damaged members. The effect of noise on strain measurements is also investigated.

Keywords: damage detection, generalized beam theory, inverse finite element method, shape sensing

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Authors: Emilienne Lardy, Eric Ballot, Mariam Lafkihi

Abstract:

Efficient urban logistics requires a comprehensive understanding of traffic dynamics, particularly as it pertains to kinetic parameters influencing energy consumption and trip duration estimations. While real-time traffic information is increasingly accessible, current high-precision forecasting services embedded in route planning often function as opaque 'black boxes' for users. These services, typically relying on AI-processed counting data, fall short in accommodating open design parameters essential for management studies, notably within Supply Chain Management. This work revisits the modelling of traffic conditions in the context of city logistics, emphasizing its significance from the user’s point of view, with two focuses. Firstly, the focus is not on the vehicle flow but on the vehicles themselves and the impact of the traffic conditions on their driving behaviour. This means opening the range of studied indicators beyond vehicle speed, to describe extensively the kinetic and dynamic aspects of the driving behaviour. To achieve this, we leverage the Art. Kinema parameters are designed to characterize driving cycles. Secondly, this study examines how the driving context (i.e., exogenous factors to the traffic flow) determines the mentioned driving behaviour. Specifically, we explore how accurately the kinetic behaviour of a vehicle can be predicted based on a limited set of exogenous factors, such as time, day, road type, orientation, slope, and weather conditions. To answer this question, statistical analysis was conducted on real-world driving data, which includes high-frequency measurements of vehicle speed. A Factor Analysis and a Generalized Linear Model have been established to link kinetic parameters with independent categorical contextual variables. The results include an assessment of the adjustment quality and the robustness of the models, as well as an overview of the model’s outputs.

Keywords: factor analysis, generalised linear model, real world driving data, traffic congestion, urban logistics, vehicle kinematics

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