Search results for: Million Phiri
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 1028

Search results for: Million Phiri

158 Assessment of Current and Future Opportunities of Chemical and Biological Surveillance of Wastewater for Human Health

Authors: Adam Gushgari

Abstract:

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has catalyzed the rapid adoption of wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) methodologies both domestically and internationally. To support the rapid scale-up of pandemic-response wastewater surveillance systems, multiple federal agencies (i.e. US CDC), non-government organizations (i.e. Water Environment Federation), and private charities (i.e. Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation) have funded over $220 million USD supporting development and expanding equitable access of surveillance methods. Funds were primarily distributed directly to municipalities under the CARES Act (90.6%), followed by academic projects (7.6%), and initiatives developed by private companies (1.8%). In addition to federal funding for wastewater monitoring primarily conducted at wastewater treatment plants, state/local governments and private companies have leveraged wastewater sampling to obtain health and lifestyle data on student, prison inmate, and employee populations. We explore the viable paths for expansion of the WBE m1ethodology across a variety of analytical methods; the development of WBE-specific samplers and real-time wastewater sensors; and their application to various governments and private sector industries. Considerable investment in, and public acceptance of WBE suggests the methodology will be applied to other future notifiable diseases and health risks. Early research suggests that WBE methods can be applied to a host of additional “biological insults” including communicable diseases and pathogens, such as influenza, Cryptosporidium, Giardia, mycotoxin exposure, hepatitis, dengue, West Nile, Zika, and yellow fever. Interest in chemical insults is also likely, providing community health and lifestyle data on narcotics consumption, use of pharmaceutical and personal care products (PPCP), PFAS and hazardous chemical exposure, and microplastic exposure. Successful application of WBE to monitor analytes correlated with carcinogen exposure, community stress prevalence, and dietary indicators has also been shown. Additionally, technology developments of in situ wastewater sensors, WBE-specific wastewater samplers, and integration of artificial intelligence will drastically change the landscape of WBE through the development of “smart sewer” networks. The rapid expansion of the WBE field is creating significant business opportunities for professionals across the scientific, engineering, and technology industries ultimately focused on community health improvement.

Keywords: wastewater surveillance, wastewater-based epidemiology, smart cities, public health, pandemic management, substance abuse

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157 SLAPP Suits: An Encroachment On Human Rights Of A Global Proportion And What Can Be Done About It

Authors: Laura Lee Prather

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A functioning democracy is defined by various characteristics, including freedom of speech, equality, human rights, rule of law and many more. Lawsuits brought to intimidate speakers, drain the resources of community members, and silence journalists and others who speak out in support of matters of public concern are an abuse of the legal system and an encroachment of human rights. The impact can have a broad chilling effect, deterring others from speaking out against abuse. This article aims to suggest ways to address this form of judicial harassment. In 1988, University of Denver professors George Pring and Penelope Canan coined the term “SLAPP” when they brought to light a troubling trend of people getting sued for speaking out about matters of public concern. Their research demonstrated that thousands of people engaging in public debate and citizen involvement in government have been and will be the targets of multi-million-dollar lawsuits for the purpose of silencing them and dissuading others from speaking out in the future. SLAPP actions chill information and harm the public at large. Professors Pring and Canan catalogued a tsunami of SLAPP suits filed by public officials, real estate developers and businessmen against environmentalists, consumers, women’s rights advocates and more. SLAPPs are now seen in every region of the world as a means to intimidate people into silence and are viewed as a global affront to human rights. Anti-SLAPP laws are the antidote to SLAPP suits and while commonplace in the United States are only recently being considered in the EU and the UK. This researcher studied more than thirty years of Anti-SLAPP legislative policy in the U.S., the call for evidence and resultant EU Commission’s Anti-SLAPP Directive and Member States Recommendations, the call for evidence by the UK Ministry of Justice, response and Model Anti-SLAPP law presented to UK Parliament, as well as, conducted dozens of interviews with NGO’s throughout the EU, UK, and US to identify varying approaches to SLAPP lawsuits, public policy, and support for SLAPP victims. This paper identifies best practices taken from the US, EU and UK that can be implemented globally to help combat SLAPPs by: (1) raising awareness about SLAPPs, how to identify them, and recognizing habitual abusers of the court system; (2) engaging governments in the policy discussion in combatting SLAPPs and supporting SLAPP victims; (3) educating judges in recognizing SLAPPs an general training on encroachment of human rights; (4) and holding lawyers accountable for ravaging the rule of law.

Keywords: Anti-SLAPP Laws and Policy, Comparative media law and policy, EU Anti-SLAPP Directive and Member Recommendations, International Human Rights of Freedom of Expression

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156 Fatigue Truck Modification Factor for Design Truck (CL-625)

Authors: Mohamad Najari, Gilbert Grondin, Marwan El-Rich

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Design trucks in standard codes are selected based on the amount of damage they cause on structures-specifically bridges- and roads to represent the real traffic loads. Some limited numbers of trucks are run on a bridge one at a time and the damage on the bridge is recorded for each truck. One design track is also run on the same bridge “n” times -“n” is the number of trucks used previously- to calculate the damage of the design truck on the same bridge. To make these damages equal a reduction factor is needed for that specific design truck in the codes. As the limited number of trucks cannot be the exact representative of real traffic through the life of the structure, these reduction factors are not accurately calculated and they should be modified accordingly. Started on July 2004, the vehicle load data were collected in six weigh in motion (WIM) sites owned by Alberta Transportation for eight consecutive years. This database includes more than 200 million trucks. Having these data gives the opportunity to compare the effect of any standard fatigue trucks weigh and the real traffic load on the fatigue life of the bridges which leads to a modification for the fatigue truck factor in the code. To calculate the damage for each truck, the truck is run on the bridge, moment history of the detail under study is recorded, stress range cycles are counted, and then damage is calculated using available S-N curves. A 2000 lines FORTRAN code has been developed to perform the analysis and calculate the damages of the trucks in the database for all eight fatigue categories according to Canadian Institute of Steel Construction (CSA S-16). Stress cycles are counted using rain flow counting method. The modification factors for design truck (CL-625) are calculated for two different bridge configurations and ten span lengths varying from 1 m to 200 m. The two considered bridge configurations are single-span bridge and four span bridge. This was found to be sufficient and representative for a simply supported span, positive moment in end spans of bridges with two or more spans, positive moment in interior spans of three or more spans, and the negative moment at an interior support of multi-span bridges. The moment history of the mid span is recorded for single-span bridge and, exterior positive moment, interior positive moment, and support negative moment are recorded for four span bridge. The influence lines are expressed by a polynomial expression obtained from a regression analysis of the influence lines obtained from SAP2000. It is found that for design truck (CL-625) fatigue truck factor is varying from 0.35 to 0.55 depending on span lengths and bridge configuration. The detail results will be presented in the upcoming papers. This code can be used for any design trucks available in standard codes.

Keywords: bridge, fatigue, fatigue design truck, rain flow analysis, FORTRAN

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155 The Effects of Irregular Immigration Originating from Syria on Turkey's Security Issues

Authors: Muzaffer Topgul, Hasan Atac

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After the September 11 attacks, fight against terrorism has risen to higher levels in security concepts of the countries. The following reactions of some nation states have led to the formation of unstable areas in different parts of the World. Especially, in Iraq and Syria, the influences of radical groups have risen with the weakening of the central governments. Turkey (with the geographical proximity to the current crisis) has become a stop on the movement of people who were displaced because of terrorism. In the process, the policies of the Syrian regime resulted in a civil war which is still going on since 2011, and remain as an unresolved crisis. With the extension of the problem, changes occurred in foreign policies of the World Powers; moreover, the ongoing effects of the riots, conflicts of interests of foreign powers, conflicts in the region because of the activities of radical groups increased instability within the country. This case continues to affect the security of Turkey, particularly illegal immigration. It has exceeded the number of two million Syrians who took refuge in Turkey due to the civil war, while continuing uncertainty about the legal status of asylum seekers, besides the security problems of asylum-seekers themselves, there are problems in education, health and communication (language) as well. In this study, we will evaluate the term of immigration through the eyes of national and international law, place the disorganized and illegal immigration in security sphere, and define the elements/components of irregular migration within the changing security concept. Ultimately, this article will assess the effects of the Syrian refuges to Turkey’s short-term, mid-term, and long-term security in the light of the national and international data flows and solutions will be presented to the ongoing problem. While explaining the security problems the data and the donnees obtained from the nation and international corporations will be examined thorough the human security dimensions such as living conditions of the immigrants, the ratio of the genders, especially birth rate occasions, the education circumstances of the immigrant children, the effects of the illegal passing on the public order. In addition, the demographic change caused by the immigrants will be analyzed, the changing economical conditions where the immigrants mostly accumulate, and their participation in public life will be worked on and the economical obstacles sourcing due to irregular immigration will be clarified. By the entire datum gathered from the educational, cultural, social, economic, demographical extents, the regional factors affecting the migration and the role of irregular migration in Turkey’s future security will be revealed by implication to current knowledge sources.

Keywords: displaced people, human security, irregular migration, refugees

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154 Tuberculosis Outpatient Treatment in the Context of Reformation of the Health Care System

Authors: Danylo Brindak, Viktor Liashko, Olexander Chepurniy

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Despite considerable experience in implementation of the best international approaches and services within response to epidemy of multi-drug resistant tuberculosis, the results of situation analysis indicate the presence of faults in this area. In 2014, Ukraine (for the first time) was included in the world’s five countries with the highest level of drug-resistant tuberculosis. The effectiveness of its treatment constitutes only 35% in the country. In this context, the increase in allocation of funds to control the epidemic of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis does not produce perceptible positive results. During 2001-2016, only the Global Fund to fight AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Malaria allocated to Ukraine more than USD 521,3 million for programs of tuberculosis and HIV/AIDS control. However, current conditions in post-Semashko system create little motivation for rational use of resources or cost control at inpatient TB facilities. There is no motivation to reduce overdue hospitalization and to target resources to priority sectors of modern tuberculosis control, including a model of care focused on the patient. In the presence of a line-item budget at medical institutions, based on the input factors as the ratios of beds and staff, there is a passive disposal of budgetary funds by health care institutions and their employees who have no motivation to improve quality and efficiency of service provision. Outpatient treatment of tuberculosis is being implemented in Ukraine since 2011 and has many risks, namely creation of parallel systems, low consistency through dependence on funding for the project, reduced the role of the family doctor, the fragmentation of financing, etc. In terms of reforming approaches to health system financing, which began in Ukraine in late 2016, NGO Infection Control in Ukraine conducted piloting of a new, motivating method of remuneration of employees in primary health care. The innovative aspect of this funding mechanism is cost according to results of treatment. The existing method of payment on the basis of the standard per inhabitant (per capita ratio) was added with motivating costs according to results of work. The effectiveness of such treatment of TB patients at the outpatient stage is 90%, while in whole on the basis of a current system the effectiveness of treatment of newly diagnosed pulmonary TB with positive swab is around 60% in the country. Even though Ukraine has 5.24 TB beds per 10 000 citizens. Implemented pilot model of ambulatory treatment will be used for the creation of costs system according to results of activities, the integration of TB and primary health and social services and their focus on achieving results, the reduction of inpatient treatment of tuberculosis.

Keywords: health care reform, multi-drug resistant tuberculosis, outpatient treatment efficiency, tuberculosis

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153 Genetic Variability and Heritability Among Indigenous Pearl Millet (Pennisetum Glaucum L. R. BR.) in Striga Infested Fields of Sudan Savanna, Nigeria

Authors: Adamu Usman, Grace Stanley Balami

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Pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum L. R. Br.) is a cereal cultivated in arid and semi-arid areas of the world. It supports more than 100 million people around the world. Parasitic weed (Striga hermonthica Del. Benth) is a major constraint to its production. Estimated yield losses are put at 10 - 95% depending on variety, ecology and cultural practices. Potentials in selection of traits in pearl millets for grain yield have been reported and it depends on genotypic variability and heritability among landraces. Variability and heritability among cultivars could offer opportunities for improvement. The study was conducted to determine the genetic variability among cultivars and estimate broad sense heritability among grain yield and related traits. F1 breeding populations were generated with 9 parental cultivars, viz; Ex-Gubio, Ex-Monguno, Ex-Baga as males and PEO 5984, Super-SOSAT, SOSAT-C88, Ex-Borno and LCIC9702 as females through Line × Tester mating during 2017 dry season at Lushi Irrigation Station, Bauchi Metropolitan in Bauchi State, Nigeria. The F1 population and the parents were evaluated during cropping season of 2018 at Bauchi and Maiduguri. Data collected were subjected to analysis of variance. Results showed significant difference among cultivars and among traits indicating variability. Number of plants at emergence, days to 50% flowering, days to 100% flowering, plant height, panicle length, number of plants at harvest, Striga count at 90 days after sowing, panicle weight and grain yield were significantly different. Significant variability offer opportunity for improvement as superior individuals can be isolated. Genotypic variance estimates of traits were largely greater than environmental variances except in plant height and 1000 seed weight. Environmental variances were low and in some cases negligible. The phenotypic variances of all traits were higher than genotypic variances. Similarly phenotypic coefficient of variation (PCV) was higher than genotypic coefficient of variation (GCV). High heritability was found in days to 50% flowering (90.27%), Striga count at 90 days after sowing (90.07%), number of plants at harvest (87.97%), days to 100% flowering (83.89%), number of plants at emergence (82.19%) and plant height (73.18%). Greater heritability estimates could be due to presence of additive gene. The result revealed wider variability among genotypes and traits. Traits having high heritability could easily respond to selection. High value of GCV, PCV and heritability estimates indicate that selection for these traits are possible and could be effective.

Keywords: variability, heritability, phenotypic, genotypic, striga

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152 Roadmap to a Bottom-Up Approach Creating Meaningful Contributions to Surgery in Low-Income Settings

Authors: Eva Degraeuwe, Margo Vandenheede, Nicholas Rennie, Jolien Braem, Miryam Serry, Frederik Berrevoet, Piet Pattyn, Wouter Willaert, InciSioN Belgium Consortium

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Background: Worldwide, five billion people lack access to safe and affordable surgical care. An added 1.27 million surgeons, anesthesiologists, and obstetricians (SAO) are needed by 2030 to meet the target of 20 per 100,000 population and to reach the goal of the Lancet Commission on Global Surgery. A well-informed future generation exposed early on to the current challenges in global surgery (GS) is necessary to ensure a sustainable future. Methods: InciSioN, the International Student Surgical Network, is a non-profit organization by and for students, residents, and fellows in over 80 countries. InciSioN Belgium, one of the prominent national working groups, has made a vast progression and collaborated with other networks to fill the educational gap, stimulate advocacy efforts and increase interactions with the international network. This report describes a roadmap to achieve sustainable development and education within GS, with the example of InciSioN Belgium. Results: Since the establishment of the organization’s branch in 2019, it has hosted an educational workshop for first-year residents in surgery, engaging over 2500 participants, and established a recurring directing board of 15 members. In the year 2020-2021, InciSioN Ghent has organized three workshops combining educational and interactive sessions for future prime advocates and surgical candidates. InciSioN Belgium has set up a strong formal coalition with the Belgian Medical Students’ Association (BeMSA), with its own standing committee, reaching over 3000+ medical students annually. In 2021-2022, InciSioN Belgium broadened to a multidisciplinary approach, including dentistry and nursing students and graduates within workshops and research projects, leading to a member and exposure increase of 450%. This roadmap sets strategic goals and mechanisms for the GS community to achieve nationwide sustained improvements in the research and education of GS focused on future SAOs, in order to achieve the GS sustainable development goals. In the coming year, expansion is directed to a formal integration of GS into the medical curriculum and increased international advocacy whilst inspiring SAOs to integrate into GS in Belgium. Conclusion: The development and implementation of durable change for GS are necessary. The student organization InciSioN Belgium is growing and hopes to close the colossal gap in GS and inspire the growth of other branches while sharing the know-how of a student organization.

Keywords: advocacy, education, global surgery, InciSioN, student network

Procedia PDF Downloads 152
151 Acceptability of ‘Fish Surimi Peptide’ in Under Five Children Suffering from Moderate Acute Malnutrition in Bangladesh

Authors: M. Iqbal Hossain, Azharul Islam Khan, S. M. Rafiqul Islam, Tahmeed Ahmed

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Objective: Moderate acute malnutrition (MAM) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in under-5 children of low-income countries. Approximately 14.6% of all under-5 mortality worldwide is attributed to MAM with >3 times increased risk of death compared to well-nourished peers. Prevalence of MAM among under-5 children in Bangladesh is ~12% (~1.7 million). Providing a diet containing adequate nutrients is the mainstay of treatment of children with MAM. It is now possible to process fish into fish peptides with longer shelf-life without refrigerator, known as ‘Fish Surimi peptide’ and this could be an attractive alternative to supply fish protein in the diet of children in low-income countries like Bangladesh. We conducted this study to assess the acceptability of Fish Surimi peptide given with various foods/meals in 2-5 years old children with MAM. Design/methods: Fish Surimi peptide is broken down from white fish meat using plant-derived enzyme and the ingredient is just fish meat consisted of 20 different kinds of amino acids including nine essential amino acids. In a convenience sample of 34 children we completed the study ward of Dhaka Hospital of icddr,b in Bangladesh during November 2014 through February 2015. For each child the study was for two consecutive days: i.e. direct observation of food intake of two lunches and two suppers. In a randomly and blinded manner and cross over design an individual child received Fish Surimi peptide (5g at lunch and 5g at supper) mixed meal [e.g. 30g rice and 30g dahl (thick lentil soup) or 60g of a vegetables-lentil-rice mixed local dish known as khichuri in one day and the same meal on other day without any Fish Surimi peptide. We observed the completeness and eagerness of eating and any possible side effect (e.g. allergy, vomiting, diarrhea etc.) over these two days. Results: The mean±SD age of the enrolled children was 38.4±9.4 months, weight 11.22±1.41 kg, height 91.0±6.3 cm, and WHZ was -2.13±0.76. Their mean±SD total feeding time (minutes) for lunch was 25.4±13.6 vs. 20.6±11.1 (p=0.130) and supper was 22.3±9.7 vs. 19.7±11.2 (p=0.297), and total amount (g) of food eaten in lunch and supper was found similar 116.1±7.0 vs. 117.7±8.0 (p=3.01) in A (Fish Surimi) and B group respectively. Score in Hedonic scale by mother on test of food given to children at lunch or supper was 3.9±0.2 vs. 4.0±0.2 (p=0.317) and on overall acceptance (including the texture, smell, and appearance) of food at lunch or supper was 3.9±0.2 vs. 4.0±0.2 (p=0.317) for A and B group respectively. No adverse event was observed in any food group during the study period. Conclusions: Fish Surimi peptide may be a cost effective supplementary food, which should be tested by appropriately designed randomized community level intervention trial both in wasted children and stunted children.

Keywords: protein-energy malnutrition, moderate acute malnutrition, weight-for-height z-score, mid upper arm circumference, acceptability, fish surimi peptide, under-5 children

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150 From Talk to Action-Tackling Africa’s Pollution and Climate Change Problem

Authors: Ngabirano Levis

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One of Africa’s major environmental challenges remains air pollution. In 2017, UNICEF estimated over 400,000 children in Africa died as a result of indoor pollution, while 350 million children remain exposed to the risks of indoor pollution due to the use of biomass and burning of wood for cooking. Over time, indeed, the major causes of mortality across Africa are shifting from the unsafe water, poor sanitation, and malnutrition to the ambient and household indoor pollution, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions remain a key factor in this. In addition, studies by the OECD estimated that the economic cost of premature deaths due to Ambient Particulate Matter Pollution (APMP) and Household Air Pollution across Africa in 2013 was about 215 Billion US Dollars and US 232 Billion US Dollars, respectively. This is not only a huge cost for a continent where over 41% of the Sub-Saharan population lives on less than 1.9 US Dollars a day but also makes the people extremely vulnerable to the negative climate change and environmental degradation effects. Such impacts have led to extended droughts, flooding, health complications, and reduced crop yields hence food insecurity. Climate change, therefore, poses a threat to global targets like poverty reduction, health, and famine. Despite efforts towards mitigation, air contributors like carbon dioxide emissions are on a generally upward trajectory across Africa. In Egypt, for instance, emission levels had increased by over 141% in 2010 from the 1990 baseline. Efforts like the climate change adaptation and mitigation financing have also hit obstacles on the continent. The International Community and developed nations stress that Africa still faces challenges of limited human, institutional and financial systems capable of attracting climate funding from these developed economies. By using the qualitative multi-case study method supplemented by interviews of key actors and comprehensive textual analysis of relevant literature, this paper dissects the key emissions and air pollutant sources, their impact on the well-being of the African people, and puts forward suggestions as well as a remedial mechanism to these challenges. The findings reveal that whereas climate change mitigation plans appear comprehensive and good on paper for many African countries like Uganda; the lingering political interference, limited research guided planning, lack of population engagement, irrational resource allocation, and limited system and personnel capacity has largely impeded the realization of the set targets. Recommendations have been put forward to address the above climate change impacts that threaten the food security, health, and livelihoods of the people on the continent.

Keywords: Africa, air pollution, climate change, mitigation, emissions, effective planning, institutional strengthening

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149 Financial Modeling for Net Present Benefit Analysis of Electric Bus and Diesel Bus and Applications to NYC, LA, and Chicago

Authors: Jollen Dai, Truman You, Xinyun Du, Katrina Liu

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Transportation is one of the leading sources of greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). Thus, to meet the Paris Agreement 2015, all countries must adopt a different and more sustainable transportation system. From bikes to Maglev, the world is slowly shifting to sustainable transportation. To develop a utility public transit system, a sustainable web of buses must be implemented. As of now, only a handful of cities have adopted a detailed plan to implement a full fleet of e-buses by the 2030s, with Shenzhen in the lead. Every change requires a detailed plan and a focused analysis of the impacts of the change. In this report, the economic implications and financial implications have been taken into consideration to develop a well-rounded 10-year plan for New York City. We also apply the same financial model to the other cities, LA and Chicago. We picked NYC, Chicago, and LA to conduct the comparative NPB analysis since they are all big metropolitan cities and have complex transportation systems. All three cities have started an action plan to achieve a full fleet of e-bus in the decades. Plus, their energy carbon footprint and their energy price are very different, which are the key factors to the benefits of electric buses. Using TCO (Total Cost Ownership) financial analysis, we developed a model to calculate NPB (Net Present Benefit) /and compare EBS (electric buses) to DBS (diesel buses). We have considered all essential aspects in our model: initial investment, including the cost of a bus, charger, and installation, government fund (federal, state, local), labor cost, energy (electricity or diesel) cost, maintenance cost, insurance cost, health and environment benefit, and V2G (vehicle to grid) benefit. We see about $1,400,000 in benefits for a 12-year lifetime of an EBS compared to DBS provided the government fund to offset 50% of EBS purchase cost. With the government subsidy, an EBS starts to make positive cash flow in 5th year and can pay back its investment in 5 years. Please remember that in our model, we consider environmental and health benefits, and every year, $50,000 is counted as health benefits per bus. Besides health benefits, the significant benefits come from the energy cost savings and maintenance savings, which are about $600,000 and $200,000 in 12-year life cycle. Using linear regression, given certain budget limitations, we then designed an optimal three-phase process to replace all NYC electric buses in 10 years, i.e., by 2033. The linear regression process is to minimize the total cost over the years and have the lowest environmental cost. The overall benefits to replace all DBS with EBS for NYC is over $2.1 billion by the year of 2033. For LA, and Chicago, the benefits for electrification of the current bus fleet are $1.04 billion and $634 million by 2033. All NPB analyses and the algorithm to optimize the electrification phase process are implemented in Python code and can be shared.

Keywords: financial modeling, total cost ownership, net present benefits, electric bus, diesel bus, NYC, LA, Chicago

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148 Tuberculosis (TB) and Lung Cancer

Authors: Asghar Arif

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Lung cancer has been recognized as one of the greatest common cancers, causing the annual mortality rate of about 1.2 million people in the world. Lung cancer is the most prevalent cancer in men and the third-most common cancer among women (after breast and digestive cancers).Recent evidences have shown the inflammatory process as one of the potential factors of cancer. Tuberculosis (TB), pneumonia, and chronic bronchitis are among the most important inflammation-inducing factors in the lungs, among which TB has a more profound role in the emergence of cancer.TB is one of the important mortality factors throughout the world, and 205,000 death cases are reported annually due to this disease. Chronic inflammation and fibrosis due to TB can induce genetic mutation and alternations. Parenchyma tissue of lung is involved in both diseases of TB and lung cancer, and continuous cough in lung cancer, morphological vascular variations, lymphocytosis processes, and generation of immune system mediators such as interleukins, are all among the factors leading to the hypothesis regarding the role of TB in lung cancer Some reports have shown that the induction of necrosis and apoptosis or TB reactivation, especially in patients with immune-deficiency, may result in increasing IL-17 and TNF_α, which will either decrease P53 activity or increase the expression of Bcl-2, decrease Bax-T, and cause the inhibition of caspase-3 expression due to decreasing the expression of mitochondria cytochrome oxidase. It has been also indicated that following the injection of BCG vaccine, the host immune system will be reinforced, and in particular, the rates of gamma interferon, nitric oxide, and interleukin-2 are increased. Therefore, CD4 + lymphocyte function will be improved, and the person will be immune against cancer.Numerous prospective studies have so far been conducted on the role of TB in lung cancer, and it seems that this disease is effective in that particular cancer.One of the main challenges of lung cancer is its correct and timely diagnosis. Unfortunately, clinical symptoms (such as continuous cough, hemoptysis, weight loss, fever, chest pain, dyspnea, and loss of appetite) and radiological images are similar in TB and lung cancer. Therefore, anti-TB drugs are routinely prescribed for the patients in the countries with high prevalence of TB, like Pakistan. Regarding the similarity in clinical symptoms and radiological findings of lung cancer, proper diagnosis is necessary for TB and respiratory infections due to nontuberculousmycobacteria (NTM). Some of the drug resistive TB cases are, in fact, lung cancer or NTM lung infections. Acid-fast staining and histological study of phlegm and bronchial washing, culturing and polymerase chain reaction TB are among the most important solutions for differential diagnosis of these diseases. Briefly, it is assumed that TB is one of the risk factors for cancer. Numerous studies have been conducted in this regard throughout the world, and it has been observed that there is a significant relationship between previous TB infection and lung cancer. However, to prove this hypothesis, further and more extensive studies are required. In addition, as the clinical symptoms and radiological findings of TB, lung cancer, and non-TB mycobacteria lung infections are similar, they can be misdiagnosed as TB.

Keywords: TB and lung cancer, TB people, TB servivers, TB and HIV aids

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147 Destination Nollywood: A Newspaper Analysis of the Connections between Film and Tourism in Nigeria, 2012-2022

Authors: E. S. Martens, E. E. Onwuliri

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Over the past three decades, Nigeria’s film industry has become a global powerhouse, releasing hundreds of films annually and even monthly. Nollywood, a portmanteau of Nigeria and Hollywood as well as Bollywood that was coined by New York Times journalist Norimitsu Onishi in 2002, came to mark the plenitude of filmmaking happening in Lagos from the early 1990s onwards. Following the success of the 1992 straight-to-VHS film Living in Bondage, the Nigerian film industry experienced a popular home video boom that gained a huge following in Nigeria, across Africa, and among the global African diaspora. In fact, with an estimated worth of $6.4 billion as of 2021, Nollywood is nowadays considered the world’s second-largest film industry and even the largest in terms of output and popularity. Producing about 2,500 films annually and reaching an estimated audience of over 200 million people worldwide, Nollywood has not only seemingly surpassed Hollywood but also Bollywood with regard to production and consumption size. Due to its commercial success and cultural impact from the early 2010s, Nollywood has often been heralded as a potential driver of Africa’s tourism industry. In its 2012 Global Trends Report, the World Travel Market forecasted an increase in GDP in Africa due to tourism in Nollywood filming locations. Additionally, it was expected that the rising popularity of Nollywood would significantly contribute to growth in the leisure sector, drawing both film enthusiasts and business travelers intrigued by the expanding significance of the Nigerian film industry. Still, despite much talk about the potential impact of Nollywood on Nigerian tourism in the past 10 years or so, relatively little is known about Nollywood’s association with film tourism and the existing connections between Nigeria’s film and tourism industries more generally. Already well over a decade ago, it was observed that there is still a lack of research examining the extent to which film tourism related to Nollywood in Africa has been generated – and to date, this is still largely the case. This paper, then, seeks to discuss the reported connections between Nollywood and tourism and to review the efforts and opportunities related to Nollywood film tourism as suggested in Nigeria’s public domain. Based on a content analysis of over 50 newspaper articles and other online available materials, such as websites, blogs and forums, this paper explores the practices and discourses surrounding Nollywood connections with tourism in Nigeria and across Africa over the past ten years. The analysis shows that, despite these high expectations, film tourism related to Nollywood has remained limited. Despite growing government attention and support to Nollywood and its potential for tourism, most state initiatives in this direction have not (yet) materialize – and it very much remains to be seen to what extent ‘Destination Nollywood’ is really able to come to fruition as long as the structural issues underlying the development of Nigerian film (and) tourism are not sufficiently addressed.

Keywords: film tourism, Nigerian cinema, Nollywood, tourist destination

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146 The Effect of Slum Neighborhoods on Pregnancy Outcomes in Tanzania: Secondary Analysis of the 2015-2016 Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey Data

Authors: Luisa Windhagen, Atsumi Hirose, Alex Bottle

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Global urbanization has resulted in the expansion of slums, leaving over 10 million Tanzanians in urban poverty and at risk of poor health. Whilst rural residence has historically been associated with an increased risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes, recent studies found higher perinatal mortality rates in urban Tanzania. This study aims to understand to what extent slum neighborhoods may account for the spatial disparities seen in Tanzania. We generated a slum indicator based on UN-HABITAT criteria to identify slum clusters within the 2015-2016 Tanzania Demographic and Health Survey. Descriptive statistics, disaggregated by urban slum, urban non-slum, and rural areas, were produced. Simple and multivariable logistic regression examined the association between cluster residence type and neonatal mortality and stillbirth. For neonatal mortality, we additionally built a multilevel logistic regression model, adjusting for confounding and clustering. The neonatal mortality ratio was highest in slums (38.3 deaths per 1000 live births); the stillbirth rate was three times higher in slums (32.4 deaths per 1000 births) than in urban non-slums. Neonatal death was more likely to occur in slums than in urban non-slums (aOR=2.15, 95% CI=1.02-4.56) and rural areas (aOR=1.78, 95% CI=1.15-2.77). Odds of stillbirth were over five times higher among rural than urban non-slum residents (aOR=5.25, 95% CI=1.31-20.96). The results suggest that slums contribute to the urban disadvantage in Tanzanian neonatal health. Higher neonatal mortality in slums may be attributable to lack of education, lower socioeconomic status, poor healthcare access, and environmental factors, including indoor and outdoor air pollution and unsanitary conditions from inadequate housing. However, further research is required to ascertain specific causalities as well as significant associations between residence type and other pregnancy outcomes. The high neonatal mortality, stillbirth, and slum formation rates in Tanzania signify that considerable change is necessary to achieve international goals for health and human settlements. Disparities in access to adequate housing, safe water and sanitation, high standard antenatal, intrapartum, and neonatal care, and maternal education need to urgently be addressed. This study highlights the spatial neonatal mortality shift from rural settings to urban informal settlements in Tanzania. Importantly, other low- and middle-income countries experiencing overwhelming urbanization and slum expansion may also be at risk of a reversing trend in residential neonatal health differences.

Keywords: urban health, slum residence, neonatal mortality, stillbirth, global urbanisation

Procedia PDF Downloads 49
145 The Application of Patterned Injuries in Reconstruction of Motorcycle Accidents

Authors: Chun-Liang Wu, Kai-Ping Shaw, Cheng-Ping Yu, Wu-Chien Chien, Hsiao-Ting Chen, Shao-Huang Wu

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Objective: This study analyzed three criminal judicial cases. We applied the patterned injuries of the rider to demonstrate the facts of each accident, reconstruct the scenes, and pursue the truth. Methods: Case analysis, a method that collects evidence and reasons the results in judicial procedures, then the importance of the pattern of injury as evidence will be compared and evaluated. The patterned injuries analysis method is to compare the collision situation between an object and human body injuries to determine whether the characteristics can reproduce the unique pattern of injury. Result: Case 1: Two motorcycles, A and B, head-on collided; rider A dead, and rider B was accused. During the prosecutor’s investigation, the defendant learned that rider A had an 80 mm open wound on his neck. During the court trial, the defendant requested copies of the case file and found out that rider A had a large contusion on his chest wall, and the cause of death was traumatic hemothorax and abdominal wall contusion. The defendant compared all the evidence at the scene and determined that the injury was obviously not caused by the collision of the body or the motorcycle of rider B but that rider was out of control and injured himself when he crossed the double yellow line. In this case, the defendant was innocent in the High Court judgment in April 2022. Case 2: Motorcycles C and D head-on crashed, and rider C died of massive abdominal bleeding. The prosecutor decided that rider C was driving under the influence (DUI), but rider D was negligent and sued rider D. The defendant requested the copies’ file and found the special phenomenon that the front wheel of motorcycle C was turned left. The defendant’s injuries were a left facial bone fracture, a left femur fracture, and other injuries on the left side. The injuries were of human-vehicle separation and human-vehicle collision, which proved that rider C suddenly turned left when the two motorcycles approached, knocked down motorcycle D, and the defendant flew forward. Case 3: Motorcycle E and F’s rear end collided, the front rider E was sentenced to 3 months, and the rear rider F sued rider E for more than 7 million N.T. The defendant found in the copies’ file that the injury of rider F was the left tibial platform fracture, etc., and then proved that rider F made the collision with his left knee, causing motorcycle E to fall out of control. This evidence was accepted by the court and is still on trial. Conclusion: The application of patterned injuries in the reconstruction of a motorcycle accident could discover the truth and provide the basis for judicial justice. The cases and methods could be the reference for the policy of preventing traffic accident casualties.

Keywords: judicial evidence, patterned injuries analysis, accident reconstruction, fatal motorcycle injuries

Procedia PDF Downloads 64
144 Valorisation of Food Waste Residue into Sustainable Bioproducts

Authors: Krishmali N. Ekanayake, Brendan J. Holland, Colin J. Barrow, Rick Wood

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Globally, more than one-third of all food produced is lost or wasted, equating to 1.3 billion tonnes per year. Around 31.2 million tonnes of food waste are generated across the production, supply, and consumption chain in Australia. Generally, the food waste management processes adopt environmental-friendly and more sustainable approaches such as composting, anerobic digestion and energy implemented technologies. However, unavoidable, and non-recyclable food waste ends up as landfilling and incineration that involve many undesirable impacts and challenges on the environment. A biorefinery approach contributes to a waste-minimising circular economy by converting food and other organic biomass waste into valuable outputs, including feeds, nutrition, fertilisers, and biomaterials. As a solution, Green Eco Technologies has developed a food waste treatment process using WasteMaster system. The system uses charged oxygen and moderate temperatures to convert food waste, without bacteria, additives, or water, into a virtually odour-free, much reduced quantity of reusable residual material. In the context of a biorefinery, the WasteMaster dries and mills food waste into a form suitable for storage or downstream extraction/separation/concentration to create products. The focus of the study is to determine the nutritional composition of WasteMaster processed residue to potential develop aquafeed ingredients. The global aquafeed industry is projected to reach a high value market in future, which has shown high demand for the aquafeed products. Therefore, food waste can be utilized for aquaculture feed development by reducing landfill. This framework will lessen the requirement of raw crops cultivation for aquafeed development and reduce the aquaculture footprint. In the present study, the nutritional elements of processed residue are consistent with the input food waste type, which has shown that the WasteMaster is not affecting the expected nutritional distribution. The macronutrient retention values of protein, lipid, and nitrogen free extract (NFE) are detected >85%, >80%, and >95% respectively. The sensitive food components including omega 3 and omega 6 fatty acids, amino acids, and phenolic compounds have been found intact in each residue material. Preliminary analysis suggests a price comparability with current aquafeed ingredient cost making the economic feasibility. The results suggest high potentiality of aquafeed development as 5 to 10% of the ingredients to replace/partially substitute other less sustainable ingredients across biorefinery setting. Our aim is to improve the sustainability of aquaculture and reduce the environmental impacts of food waste.

Keywords: biorefinery, ffood waste residue, input, wasteMaster

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143 Strategies to Mitigate Disasters at the Hajj Religious Festival Using GIS and Agent Based Modelling

Authors: Muteb Alotaibi, Graham Clarke, Nick Malleson

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The Hajj religious festival at Mina in Saudi Arabia has always presented the opportunity for injuries or deaths. For example, in 1990, a stampede killed 1426 pilgrims, whilst in 1997, 343 people were killed and 1500 injured due to a fire fuelled by high winds sweeping through the tent city in Mina.Many more minor incidents have occurred since then. It is predicted that 5 million pilgrims will soon perform the ritual at Mina (which is, in effect, a temporary city built each year in the desert), which might lead in the future to severe congestion and accidents unless the research is conducted on actions that contribute positively to improving the management of the crowd and facilitating the flow of pilgrims safely and securely. To help prevent further disasters, it is important to first plan better, more accessible locations for emergency services across Mina to ensure a good service for pilgrims. In this paper, we first use a Location Allocation Model (LAM) within a network GIS to examine the optimal locations for key services in the temporary city of Mina. This has been undertaken in relation to the location and movement of the pilgrims during the six day religious festival. The results of various what-if scenarios have been compared against the current location of services. A major argument is that planners should be flexible and locate facilities at different locations throughout the day and night. The use of location-allocation models in this type of comparative static mode has rarely been operationalised in the literature. Second, we model pilgrim movements and behaviours along with the most crowded parts of the network. This has been modelled using an agent-based model. This model allows planners to understand the key bottlenecks in the network and at what usage levels the paths become critically congested. Thus the paper has important implications and recommendations for future disaster planning strategies. This will enable planners to see at what stage in the movements of pilgrims problems occur in terms of potential crushes and trampling incidents. The main application of this research was only customised for pedestrians as the concentration only for pedestrians who move to Jamarat via foot. Further, the network in the middle of Mina was only dedicated for pedestrians for safety, so no Buses, trains and private cars were allowed in this area to prevent the congestion within this network. Initially, this research focus on Mina city as ‘temporary city’ and also about service provision in temporary cities, which is not highlighted in literature so far. Further, it is the first study which use the dynamic demand to optimise the services in the case of day and night time. Moreover, it is the first study which link the location allocation model for optimising services with ABM to find out whether or not the service location is located in the proper location in which it’s not affecting on crowd movement in mainstream flow where some pilgrims need to have health services.

Keywords: ABM, crowd management, hajj, temporary city

Procedia PDF Downloads 106
142 Predicting Susceptibility to Coronary Artery Disease using Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms with a Large-Scale Data Extraction from PubMed and Validation in an Asian Population Subset

Authors: K. H. Reeta, Bhavana Prasher, Mitali Mukerji, Dhwani Dholakia, Sangeeta Khanna, Archana Vats, Shivam Pandey, Sandeep Seth, Subir Kumar Maulik

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Introduction Research has demonstrated a connection between coronary artery disease (CAD) and genetics. We did a deep literature mining using both bioinformatics and manual efforts to identify the susceptible polymorphisms in coronary artery disease. Further, the study sought to validate these findings in an Asian population. Methodology In first phase, we used an automated pipeline which organizes and presents structured information on SNPs, Population and Diseases. The information was obtained by applying Natural Language Processing (NLP) techniques to approximately 28 million PubMed abstracts. To accomplish this, we utilized Python scripts to extract and curate disease-related data, filter out false positives, and categorize them into 24 hierarchical groups using named Entity Recognition (NER) algorithms. From the extensive research conducted, a total of 466 unique PubMed Identifiers (PMIDs) and 694 Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) related to coronary artery disease (CAD) were identified. To refine the selection process, a thorough manual examination of all the studies was carried out. Specifically, SNPs that demonstrated susceptibility to CAD and exhibited a positive Odds Ratio (OR) were selected, and a final pool of 324 SNPs was compiled. The next phase involved validating the identified SNPs in DNA samples of 96 CAD patients and 37 healthy controls from Indian population using Global Screening Array. ResultsThe results exhibited out of 324, only 108 SNPs were expressed, further 4 SNPs showed significant difference of minor allele frequency in cases and controls. These were rs187238 of IL-18 gene, rs731236 of VDR gene, rs11556218 of IL16 gene and rs5882 of CETP gene. Prior researches have reported association of these SNPs with various pathways like endothelial damage, susceptibility of vitamin D receptor (VDR) polymorphisms, and reduction of HDL-cholesterol levels, ultimately leading to the development of CAD. Among these, only rs731236 had been studied in Indian population and that too in diabetes and vitamin D deficiency. For the first time, these SNPs were reported to be associated with CAD in Indian population. Conclusion: This pool of 324 SNP s is a unique kind of resource that can help to uncover risk associations in CAD. Here, we validated in Indian population. Further, validation in different populations may offer valuable insights and contribute to the development of a screening tool and may help in enabling the implementation of primary prevention strategies targeted at the vulnerable population.

Keywords: coronary artery disease, single nucleotide polymorphism, susceptible SNP, bioinformatics

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141 The Cultural Shift in Pre-owned Fashion as Sustainable Consumerism in Vietnam

Authors: Lam Hong Lan

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The textile industry is said to be the second-largest polluter, responsible for 92 million tonnes of waste annually. There is an urgent need to practice the circular economy to increase the use and reuse around the world. By its nature, the pre-owned fashion business is considered part of the circular economy as it helps to eliminate waste and circulate products. Second-hand clothes and accessories used to be associated with a ‘cheap image’ that carried ‘old energy’ in Vietnam. This perception has been shifted, especially amongst the younger generation. Vietnamese consumer is spending more on products and services that increase self-esteem. The same consumer is moving away from a collectivist social identity towards a ‘me, not we’ outlook as they look for a way to express their individual identity. And pre-owned fashion is one of their solutions as it values money, can create a unique personal style for the wearer and links with sustainability. The design of this study is based on the second-hand shopping motivation theory. A semi-structured online survey with 100 consumers from one pre-owned clothing community and one pre-owned e-commerce site in Vietnam. The findings show that in contrast with Vietnamese older consumers (55+yo) who, in the previous study, generally associated pre-owned fashion with ‘low-cost’, ‘cheap image’ that carried ‘old energy’, young customers (20-30 yo) were actively promoted their pre-owned fashion items to the public via outlet’s social platforms and their social media. This cultural shift comes from the impact of global and local discourse around sustainable fashion and the growth of digital platforms in the pre-owned fashion business in the last five years, which has generally supported wider interest in pre-owned fashion in Vietnam. It can be summarised in three areas: (1) global and local celebrity influencers. A number of celebrities have been photographed wearing vintage items in music videos, photoshoots or at red carpet events. (2) E-commerce and intermediaries. International e-commerce sites – e.g., Vinted, TheRealReal – and/or local apps – e.g., Re.Loved – can influence attitudes and behaviors towards pre-owned consumption. (3) Eco-awareness. The increased online coverage of climate change and environmental pollution has encouraged customers to adopt a more eco-friendly approach to their wardrobes. While sustainable biomaterials and designs are still navigating their way into sustainability, sustainable consumerism via pre-owned fashion seems to be an immediate solution to lengthen the clothes lifecycle. This study has found that young consumers are primarily seeking value for money and/or a unique personal style from pre-owned/vintage fashion while using these purchases to promote their own “eco-awareness” via their social media networks. This is a good indication for fashion designers to keep in mind in their design process and for fashion enterprises in their business model’s choice to not overproduce fashion items.

Keywords: cultural shift, pre-owned fashion, sustainable consumption, sustainable fashion.

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140 Differentially Expressed Protein Biomarkers in Early and Advanced Stage Young Triple-Negative Breast Cancer Patients

Authors: Shamim Mushtaq, Moazzam Shahid

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Breast cancer (BC) claims the lives of half a million women every year and is the most common cause of death in the developing world. In 2019, it was estimated that BC alone accounts for 15% of all cancer deaths in younger women (aged < 45 years old) with advanced-stage lung metastasis. According to the World Health Organization & International Union against Cancer, in Asia, a high number of cancer-related deaths will be observed in 2020, whereas the burden will be reduced in Western countries due to awareness about the disease, better health facilities and advanced treatments. In the last 15 years, it has been reported that the incidence of BC has increased by 1.1% among Asian compared to the US population from 2003 to 2012. To date, several BC biological subtypes have been reported so far, which are associated with different treatment responses. The heterogeneity and diversity of BC reflected these different subtypes, including Luminal A (23.7% prevalence) and B (38.8% prevalence) that have pathological estrogen receptor (ER+)-positive tumors, the human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2) (11.2% prevalence) and triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) (25% prevalence). According to Shaukat Khanum Memorial Cancer Hospital and Research Centre – Pakistan, ten years of data showed that among 636 BC patients, 30.5% had TNBC who were <40 years of age, which is an extremely alarming situation. Therefore, there is a dire need to explore and develop therapeutic targets for the treatment of early TNBC. Since the last decade, unfortunately, there has been little success in understanding the complexity of TNBC and in discovering new biological therapeutic targets. However, conventional chemotherapy is the only choice of treatment for TNBC patients. Many investigators revealed advances in multi-omics (multiple "omes", e.g., genome, proteome, transcriptome, epigenome, and microbiome) which were later identified as actionable targets and increased prevalence in TNBC patients. However, various drugs have been identified so far which are related to a particular diagnostic and prognostic biomarker. For example, Epidermal growth factor receptor ( EGFR or ErbB-1), HER-2/neu (ErbB-2), HER-3 (ErbB-3), and HER-4 (ErbB-4). Protein Transglin-2 (TAGLN 2 ) and Profilins-1 (Pfn-1 ) are the ubiquitously expressed large family of proteins present in all eukaryotes, enabling actin cytoskeletal reorganization. It is known that the oncogenic transformation of cells is accompanied by alteration in the actin cytoskeleton. There are causal connections between altered expression of actin cytoskeletal regulators and cancer progression. Our case-control study identified TAGLN-2 and Pfn-1 proteins in TNBC blood by mass spectrometry. Both TAGLN-2 and Pfn-1 proteins are differentially expressed in early and advanced stages of TNBS patients, which could be potential predictors or therapeutic targets for TNBC.

Keywords: TNBC, blood biomarkers, mass spectrometry, qPCR, ELISA

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139 Human Immuno-Deficiency Virus Co-Infection with Hepatitis B Virus and Baseline Cd4+ T Cell Count among Patients Attending a Tertiary Care Hospital, Nepal

Authors: Soma Kanta Baral

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Background: Since 1981, when the first AIDS case was reported, worldwide, more than 34 million people have been infected with HIV. Almost 95 percent of the people infected with HIV live in developing countries. As HBV & HIV share similar routes of transmission by sexual intercourse or drug use by parenteral injection, co-infection is common. Because of the limited access to healthcare & HIV treatment in developing countries, HIV-infected individuals are present late for care. Enumeration of CD4+ T cell count at the time of diagnosis has been useful to initiate the therapy in HIV infected individuals. The baseline CD4+ T cell count shows high immunological variability among patients. Methods: This prospective study was done in the serology section of the Department of Microbiology over a period of one year from august 2012 to July 2013. A total of 13037 individuals subjected for HIV test were included in the study comprising of 4982 males & 8055 females. Blood sample was collected by vein puncture aseptically with standard operational procedure in clean & dry test-tube. All blood samples were screened for HIV as described by WHO algorithm by Immuno-chromatography rapid kits. Further confirmation was done by biokit ELISA method as per the manufacturer’s guidelines. After informed consent, HIV positive individuals were screened for HBsAg by Immuno-chromatography rapid kits (Hepacard). Further confirmation was done by biokit ELISA method as per the manufacturer’s guidelines. EDTA blood samples were collected from the HIV sero-positive individuals for baseline CD4+ T count. Then, CD4+ T cells count was determined by using FACS Calibur Flow Cytometer (BD). Results: Among 13037 individuals screened for HIV, 104 (0.8%) were found to be infected comprising of 69(66.34%) males & 35 (33.65%) females. The study showed that the high infection was noted in housewives (28.7%), active age group (30.76%), rural area (56.7%) & in heterosexual route (80.9%) of transmission. Out of total HIV infected individuals, distribution of HBV co-infection was found to be 6(5.7%). All co- infected individuals were married, male, above the age of 25 years & heterosexual route of transmission. Baseline CD4+ T cell count of HIV infected patient was found higher (mean CD4+ T cell count; 283cells/cu.mm) than HBV co-infected patients (mean CD4+ T cell count; 91 cells/cu.mm). Majority (77.2%) of HIV infected & all co-infected individuals were presented in our center late (CD4+ T cell count;< 350/cu. mm) for diagnosis and care. Majority of co- infected 4 (80%) were late presented with advanced AIDS stage (CD4+ count; <200/cu.mm). Conclusions: The study showed a high percentage of HIV sero-positive & co- infected individuals. Baseline CD4+ T cell count of majority of HIV infected individuals was found to be low. Hence, more sustained and vigorous awareness campaigns & counseling still need to be done in order to promote early diagnosis and management.

Keywords: HIV/AIDS, HBsAg, co-infection, CD4+

Procedia PDF Downloads 195
138 Survey of the Literacy by Radio Project as an Innovation in Literacy Promotion in Nigeria

Authors: Stella Chioma Nwizu

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The National Commission for Adult and Non Formal Education (NMEC) in Nigeria is charged with the reduction of illiteracy rate through the development, monitoring, and supervision of literacy programmes in Nigeria. In spite of various efforts by NMEC to reduce illiteracy, literature still shows that the illiteracy rate is still high. According to NMEC/UNICEF, about 60 million Nigerians are non-literate, and nearly two thirds of them are women. This situation forced the government to search for innovative and better approaches to literacy promotion and delivery. The literacy by radio project was adopted as an innovative intervention to literacy delivery in Nigeria because the radio is the cheapest and most easily affordable medium for non-literates. The project aimed at widening access to literacy programmes for the non-literate marginalized and disadvantaged groups in Nigeria by taking literacy programmes to their door steps. The literacy by radio has worked perfectly well in non-literacy reduction in Cuba. This innovative intervention of literacy by radio is anchored on the diffusion of innovation theory by Rogers. The literacy by radio has been going on for fifteen years and the efficacy and contributions of this innovation need to be investigated. Thus, the purpose of this research is to review the contributions of the literacy by radio in Nigeria. The researcher adopted the survey research design for the study. The population for the study consisted of 2,706 participants and 47 facilitators of the literacy by radio programme in the 10 pilot states in Nigeria. A sample of four states made up of 302 participants and eight facilitators were used for the study. Information was collected through Focus Group Discussion (FGD), interviews and content analysis of official documents. The data were analysed qualitatively to review the contributions of literacy by radio project and determine the efficacy of this innovative approach in facilitating literacy in Nigeria. Results from the field experience showed, among others, that more non-literates have better access to literacy programmes through this innovative approach. The pilot project was 88% successful; not less than 2,110 adults were made literate through the literacy by radio project in 2017. However, lack of enthusiasm and commitment on the part of the technical committee and facilitators due to non-payment of honorarium, poor signals from radio stations, interruption of lectures with adverts, low community involvement in decision making in the project are challenges to the success rate of the project. The researcher acknowledges the need to customize all materials and broadcasts in all the dialects of the participants and the inclusion of more civil rights, environmental protection and agricultural skills into the project. The study recommends among others, improved and timely funding of the project by the Federal Government to enable NMEC to fulfill her obligations towards the greater success of the programme, setting up of independent radio stations for airing the programmes and proper monitoring and evaluation of the project by NMEC and State Agencies for greater effectiveness. In an era of the knowledge-driven economy, no one should be allowed to get saddled with the weight of illiteracy.

Keywords: innovative approach, literacy, project, radio, survey

Procedia PDF Downloads 45
137 Loud Silence: A Situation Analysis of Youth Living with Hearing Impairment in Uganda

Authors: Wandera Stephen Ojumbo

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People living with hearing impairment in Uganda are one of the most excluded minority groups in the country. The Uganda National Association of the Deaf estimates that deaf people make up 3.4% of Uganda’s 43 million people. Deaf Children and youth often appear withdrawn because they face social stigma. In 2009, photojournalist Stephen Wandera Ojumbo conducted an exhibition in Kampala titled “Silent Voices with colourful Hearts” showcasing the life of deaf children at Uganda School for the Deaf, Ntinda, in order to create awareness of their plight, raising funds for the construction of a vocational centre for the deaf that didn’t continue their education due to: lack of funds, non-inclusive educational institutions, and for those who cannot read and write. These children, whose lives were exhibited in 2009, are currently youths. In Uganda, there are just five primary schools for the deaf (three of these are located in Kampala, the capital city), and barely five secondary schools for the deaf. At the moment, some deaf children only receive special needs training equivalent to primary seven levels and the majority don’t make it to secondary school education level due to the fact that English is a second language to them. There is a communication gap between speaking parents and deaf children, which leads to the breakage of family bonds. The deaf youth run away from their homes to form a community where they can communicate freely. Likewise, employment opportunities for the deaf are equally very limited. It’s for this reason that a follow-up photo exhibition was conducted to expose more about what the youthful deaf people and their guardians go through in Uganda to get jobs, live and fit in the community, how they communicate and get understood, bonding with families instead of running away to bond with fellow deaf persons. The photo exhibition under the theme “Loud Silence” was significant in showcasing the ability of deaf youths in Uganda and eliciting solutions to make a more inclusive society for the deaf. It is hoped that partners in development will join in for intervention. The methodology used included individual interviews with the deaf youth and their parents and caretakers; photography at household and community levels; document review at organizations working with the deaf; observations; and key informant interviews with relevant personnel working with the deaf. Some of the major findings include: i) Effective sign language communication is key in deaf education, family bonding, and developing a sense of belonging; ii) Love and intimacy can keep the deaf bound together; iii) Education is important; everybody should struggle even if alone; iv) Games and sports are a unifying factor and most loved among the deaf; and v) better communication skills build confidence in deaf youth. In conclusion, concerted efforts are still needed to make Uganda schools more inclusive for deaf persons. This will enable a secure future for deaf youths.

Keywords: deaf, education, excluded, photo exhibition

Procedia PDF Downloads 59
136 Challenges of Carbon Trading Schemes in Africa

Authors: Bengan Simbarashe Manwere

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The entire African continent, comprising 55 countries, holds a 2% share of the global carbon market. The World Bank attributes the continent’s insignificant share and participation in the carbon market to the limited access to electricity. Approximately 800 million people spread across 47 African countries generate as much power as Spain, with a population of 45million. Only South Africa and North Africa have carbon-reduction investment opportunities on the continent and dominate the 2% market share of the global carbon market. On the back of the 2015 Paris Agreement, South Africa signed into law the Carbon Tax Act 15 of 2019 and the Customs and Excise Amendment Act 13 of 2019 (Gazette No. 4280) on 1 June 2019. By these laws, South Africa was ushered into the league of active global carbon market players. By increasing the cost of production by the rate of R120/tCO2e, the tax intentionally compels the internalization of pollution as a cost of production and, relatedly, stimulate investment in clean technologies. The first phase covered the 1 June 2019 – 31 December 2022 period during which the tax was meant to escalate at CPI + 2% for Scope 1 emitters. However, in the second phase, which stretches from 2023 to 2030, the tax will escalate at the inflation rate only as measured by the consumer price index (CPI). The Carbon Tax Act provides for carbon allowances as mitigation strategies to limit agents’ carbon tax liability by up to 95% for fugitive and process emissions. Although the June 2019 Carbon Tax Act explicitly makes provision for a carbon trading scheme (CTS), the carbon trading regulations thereof were only finalised in December 2020. This points to a delay in the establishment of a carbon trading scheme (CTS). Relatedly, emitters in South Africa are not able to benefit from the 95% reduction in effective carbon tax rate from R120/tCO2e to R6/tCO2e as the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) has not yet finalized the establishment of the market for trading carbon credits. Whereas most carbon trading schemes have been designed and constructed from the beginning as new tailor-made systems in countries the likes of France, Australia, Romania which treat carbon as a financial product, South Africa intends, on the contrary, to leverage existing trading infrastructure of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) and the Clearing and Settlement platforms of Strate, among others, in the interest of the Paris Agreement timelines. Therefore the carbon trading scheme will not be constructed from scratch. At the same time, carbon will be treated as a commodity in order to align with the existing institutional and infrastructural capacity. This explains why the Carbon Tax Act is silent about the involvement of the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA).For South Africa, there is need to establish they equilibrium stability of the CTS. This is important as South Africa is an innovator in carbon trading and the successful trading of carbon credits on the JSE will lead to imitation by early adopters first, followed by the middle majority thereafter.

Keywords: carbon trading scheme (CTS), Johannesburg stock exchange (JSE), carbon tax act 15 of 2019, South Africa

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135 Generation & Migration Of Carbone Dioxid In The Lower Cretaceous Bahi Sandstone Reservoir Within The En-naga Sub Basin, Sirte Basin, Libya

Authors: Moaawia Abdulgader Gdara

Abstract:

En -Naga sub - basin considered to be the most southern of the concessions in the Sirte Basin operated by HOO. En Naga Sub – basin have likely been point-sourced of CO₂ accumulations during the last 7 million years from local satellite intrusives associated with the Haruj Al Aswad igneous complex. CO2 occurs in the En Naga Sub-basin as a result of the igneous activity of the Al Harouge Al Aswad complex.Igneous extrusive have been pierced in the subsurface are exposed at the surface. The lower cretaceous Bahi Sandstone facies are recognized in the En Naga Sub-basin. They result from the influence of paleotopography on the processes associated with continental deposition over the Sirt Unconformity and the Cenomanian marine transgression In the Lower Cretaceous Bahi Sandstones, the presence of trapped carbon dioxide is proven within the En Naga Sub-basin. This makes it unique in providing an abundance of CO₂ gas reservoirs with almost pure magmatic CO₂, which can be easily sampled. Huge amounts of CO2 exist in the Lower Cretaceous Bahi Sandstones in the En-Naga sub-basin, where the economic value of CO₂ is related to its use for enhanced oil recovery (EOR) Based on the production tests for the drilled wells that makes Lower Cretaceous Bahi sandstones the principle reservoir rocks for CO2 where large volumes of CO2 gas have been discovered in the Bahi Formation on and near EPSA 120/136(En -Naga sub basin). The Bahi sandstones are generally described as a good reservoir rock. Intergranular porosities and permeabilities are highly variable and can exceed 25% and 100 MD. In the (En Naga sub – basin), three main developed structures (Barrut I, En Naga A and En Naga O) are thought to be prospective for the lower Cretaceous Bahi sandstone reservoir. These structures represents a good example for the deep over pressure potential in (En Naga sub - basin). The very high pressures assumed associated with local igneous intrusives may account for the abnormally high Bahi (and Lidam) reservoir pressures. The best gas tests from this facies are at F1-72 on the (Barrut I structure) from part of a 458 feet+ section having an estimated high value of CO2 as 98% overpressured. Bahi CO) en naga sub basin, 2)al harouge al aswad igneous complex., 3) lower cretaceous bahi reservoir, 4)co) en naga sub basin, 2)al harouge al aswad igneous complex., 3) lower cretaceous bahi reservoir, 4)co) en naga sub basin, 2)al harouge al aswad igneous complex., 3) lower cretaceous bahi reservoir, 4)co) en naga sub basin, 2)al harouge al aswad igneous complex., 3) lower cretaceous bahi reservoir, 4)co₂ generation and migration to the bahi sandstone reservoir generation and migration to the bahi sandstone reservoir generation and migration to the bahi sandstone reservoir generation and migration to the bahi sandstone reservoir prospectivity is thought to be excellent in the central to western areas where At U1-72 (En Naga O structure) a significant CO2 gas kick occurred at 11,971 feet and quickly led to blowout conditions due to uncontrollable leaks in the surface equipment. Which reflects a better reservoir quality sandstones associated with Paleostructural highs. Condensate and gas prospectivity increases to the east as the CO₂) en naga sub basin, 2)al harouge al aswad igneous complex., 3) lower cretaceous bahi reservoir, 4)co) en naga sub basin, 2)al harouge al aswad igneous complex., 3) lower cretaceous bahi reservoir, 4)co₂ generation and migration to the bahi sandstone reservoir generation and migration to the bahi sandstone reservoir prospectivity decreases with distance away from the Al Haruj Al Aswad igneous complex. To date, it has not been possible to accurately determine the volume of these strategically valuable reserves although there are positive indications that they are very large.

Keywords: 1) en naga sub basin, 2)al harouge al aswad igneous complex., 3) lower cretaceous bahi reservoir, 4)co2 generation and migration to the bahi sandstone reservoir

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134 The Environmental Concerns in Coal Mining, and Utilization in Pakistan

Authors: S. R. H. Baqri, T. Shahina, M. T. Hasan

Abstract:

Pakistan is facing acute shortage of energy and looking for indigenous resources of the energy mix to meet the short fall. After the discovery of huge coal resources in Thar Desert of Sindh province, focus has shifted to coal power generation. The government of Pakistan has planned power generation of 20000 MW on coal by the year 2025. This target will be achieved by mining and power generation in Thar coal Field and on imported coal in different parts of Pakistan. Total indigenous coal production of around 3.0 million tons is being utilized in brick kilns, cement and sugar industry. Coal-based power generation is only limited to three units of 50 MW near Hyderabad from nearby Lakhra Coal field. The purpose of this presentation is to identify and redressal of issues of coal mining and utilization with reference to environmental hazards. Thar coal resource is estimated at 175 billion tons out of a total resource estimate of 184 billion tons in Pakistan. Coal of Pakistan is of Tertiary age (Palaeocene/Eocene) and classified from lignite to sub-bituminous category. Coal characterization has established three main pollutants such as Sulphur, Carbon dioxide and Methane besides some others associated with coal and rock types. The element Sulphur occurs in organic as well as inorganic forms associated with coals as free sulphur and as pyrite, gypsum, respectively. Carbon dioxide, methane and minerals are mostly associated with fractures, joints local faults, seatearth and roof rocks. The abandoned and working coal mines give kerosene odour due to escape of methane in the atmosphere. While the frozen methane/methane ices in organic matter rich sediments have also been reported from the Makran coastal and offshore areas. The Sulphur escapes into the atmosphere during mining and utilization of coal in industry. The natural erosional processes due to rivers, streams, lakes and coastal waves erode over lying sediments allowing pollutants to escape into air and water. Power plants emissions should be controlled through application of appropriate clean coal technology and need to be regularly monitored. Therefore, the systematic and scientific studies will be required to estimate the quantity of methane, carbon dioxide and sulphur at various sites such as abandoned and working coal mines, exploratory wells for coal, oil and gas. Pressure gauges on gas pipes connecting the coal-bearing horizons will be installed on surface to know the quantity of gas. The quality and quantity of gases will be examined according to the defined intervals of times. This will help to design and recommend the methods and procedures to stop the escape of gases into atmosphere. The element of Sulphur can be removed partially by gravity and chemical methods after grinding and before industrial utilization of coal.

Keywords: atmosphere, coal production, energy, pollutants

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133 Accidental U.S. Taxpayers Residing Abroad: Choosing between U.S. Citizenship or Keeping Their Local Investment Accounts

Authors: Marco Sewald

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Due to the current enforcement of exterritorial U.S. legislation, up to 9 million U.S. (dual) citizens residing abroad are subject to U.S. double and surcharge taxation and at risk of losing access to otherwise basic financial services and investment opportunities abroad. The United States is the only OECD country that taxes non-resident citizens, lawful permanent residents and other non-resident aliens on their worldwide income, based on local U.S. tax laws. To enforce these policies the U.S. has implemented ‘saving clauses’ in all tax treaties and implemented several compliance provisions, including the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA), Qualified Intermediaries Agreements (QI) and Intergovernmental Agreements (IGA) addressing Foreign Financial Institutions (FFIs) to implement these provisions in foreign jurisdictions. This policy creates systematic cases of double and surcharge taxation. The increased enforcement of compliance rules is creating additional report burdens for U.S. persons abroad and FFIs accepting such U.S. persons as customers. FFIs in Europe react with a growing denial of specific financial services to this population. The numbers of U.S. citizens renouncing has dramatically increased in the last years. A case study is chosen as an appropriate methodology and research method, as being an empirical inquiry that investigates a contemporary phenomenon within its real-life context; when the boundaries between phenomenon and context are not clearly evident; and in which multiple sources of evidence are used. This evaluative approach is testing whether the combination of policies works in practice, or whether they are in accordance with desirable moral, political, economical aims, or may serve other causes. The research critically evaluates the financial and non-financial consequences and develops sufficient strategies. It further discusses these strategies to avoid the undesired consequences of exterritorial U.S. legislation. Three possible strategies are resulting from the use cases: (1) Duck and cover, (2) Pay U.S. double/surcharge taxes, tax preparing fees and accept imposed product limitations and (3) Renounce U.S. citizenship and pay possible exit taxes, tax preparing fees and the requested $2,350 fee to renounce. While the first strategy is unlawful and therefore unsuitable, the second strategy is only suitable if the U.S. citizen residing abroad is planning to move to the U.S. in the future. The last strategy is the only reasonable and lawful way provided by the U.S. to limit the exposure to U.S. double and surcharge taxation and the limitations on financial products. The results are believed to add a perspective to the current academic discourse regarding U.S. citizenship based taxation, currently dominated by U.S. scholars, while providing sufficient strategies for the affected population at the same time.

Keywords: citizenship based taxation, FATCA, FBAR, qualified intermediaries agreements, renounce U.S. citizenship

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132 Screening of Osteoporosis in Aging Populations

Authors: Massimiliano Panella, Sara Bortoluzzi, Sophia Russotto, Daniele Nicolini, Carmela Rinaldi

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Osteoporosis affects more than 200 million people worldwide. About 75% of osteoporosis cases are undiagnosed or diagnosed only when a bone fracture occurs. Since osteoporosis related fractures are significant determinants of the burden of disease and health and social costs of aging populations, we believe that this is the early identification and treatment of high-risk patients should be a priority in actual healthcare systems. Screening for osteoporosis by dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) is not cost-effective for general population. An alternative is pulse-echo ultrasound (PEUS) because of the minor costs. To this end, we developed an early detection program for osteoporosis with PEUS, and we evaluated is possible impact and sustainability. We conducted a cross-sectional study including 1,050 people in Italy. Subjects with >1 major or >2 minor risk factors for osteoporosis were invited to PEUS bone mass density (BMD) measurement at the proximal tibia. Based on BMD values, subjects were classified as healthy subjects (BMD>0.783 g/cm²) and pathological including subjects with suspected osteopenia (0.783≤BMD>0.719 g/cm²) or osteoporosis (BMD ≤ 0.719 g/cm²). The responder rate was 60.4% (634/1050). According to the risk, PEUS scan was recommended to 436 people, of whom 300 (mean age 45.2, 81% women) accepted to participate. We identified 240 (80%) healthy and 60 (20%) pathological subjects (47 osteopenic and 13 osteoporotic). We observed a significant association between high risk people and reduced bone density (p=0.043) with increased risks for female gender, older ages, and menopause (p<0.01). The yearly cost of the screening program was 8,242 euros. With actual Italian fracture incidence rates in osteoporotic patients, we can reasonably expect in 20 years that at least 6 fractures will occur in our sample. If we consider that the mean costs per fracture in Italy is today 16,785 euros, we can estimate a theoretical cost of 100,710 euros. According to literature, we can assume that the early treatment of osteoporosis could avoid 24,170 euros of such costs. If we add the actual yearly cost of the treatments to the cost of our program and we compare this final amount of 11,682 euros to the avoidable costs of fractures (24,170 euros) we can measure a possible positive benefits/costs ratio of 2.07. As a major outcome, our study let us to early identify 60 people with a significant bone loss that were not aware of their condition. This diagnostic anticipation constitutes an important element of value for the project, both for the patients, for the preventable negative outcomes caused by the fractures, and for the society in general, because of the related avoidable costs. Therefore, based on our finding, we believe that the PEUS based screening performed could be a cost-effective approach to early identify osteoporosis. However, our study has some major limitations. In fact, in our study the economic analysis is based on theoretical scenarios, thus specific studies are needed for a better estimation of the possible benefits and costs of our program.

Keywords: osteoporosis, prevention, public health, screening

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131 Sexual and Reproductive Rights After the Signing of the Peace Process: A Territorial Commitment

Authors: Rocio Murad, Juan Carlos Rivillas, Nury Alejandra Rodriguez, Daniela Roldán

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In Colombia, around 5 million women have suffered forced displacement and all forms of gender-based violence, mostly adolescents and young women, single mothers, or widows with children affected by the war. After the signing of the peace agreements, the department of Antioquia has been one of the most affected by the armed conflict, from a territorial and gender perspective in the period. The objective of the research was to analyze the situation of sexual and reproductive rights in the department of Antioquia from a territorial and gender perspective in the period after the signing of the Peace Agreement. A mixed methodology was developed. The quantitative component conducted a cross-sectional descriptive study of barriers to access to contraceptive methods, safe abortion and gender-based violence based on microdata from the 2015 National Demographic and Health Survey. In the qualitative component, a case study was developed in Dabeiba, a municipality of Antioquia prioritized in order to deepen the experiences before, during and after the armed conflict in sexual and reproductive rights; using three research techniques: Focused observation, Semi-structured interviews, and Documentary review. The results showed that there is a gradient of greater vulnerability to greater effects of the conflict and that the subregion of Urabá Antioqueño, to which Dabeiba belongs, has the highest levels of vulnerability in relation to departmental data. In this subregion, the percentage of women with an unmet need for contraceptive methods (9%), women with unintended pregnancies (31%), of women between 15 and 19 years of age who are already mothers or are pregnant with their first child (32%) and the percentage of women victims of physical violence (42%) and sexual violence (13%) by their partners are significantly higher. Women, particularly rural and indigenous women, were doubly affected due to the existence of violence that is specifically directed at them or that has a greater impact on their life projects. There was evidence of insufficient, fragmented and disjointed social and institutional action in relation to women's rights and the existence of androcentric and patriarchal social imaginaries through which women and the feminine are undervalued. These results provide evidence of violations of sexual and reproductive rights in contexts of armed conflict and make it possible to identify mechanisms to guarantee the re-establishment of the rights of the victims, particularly women and girls. Among the mechanisms evidenced are: working for the elimination of gender stereotypes; supporting the formation and strengthening of women's social organizations; working for the concerted definition and articulated implementation of actions necessary to respond to sexual and reproductive health needs; and working for the recognition of reproductive violence as specific and different from sexual violence in the context of armed conflict. Also, it was evidenced that it is necessary to implement prevention, attention and reparation actions.

Keywords: sexual and reproductive rights, Colombia, armed conflict, violence against women

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130 Challenges in the Last Mile of the Global Guinea Worm Eradication Program: A Systematic Review

Authors: Getahun Lemma

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Introduction Guinea Worm Disease (GWD), also known as dracunculiasisis, is one of the oldest diseases in the history of mankind. Dracunculiasis is caused by a parasitic nematode, Dracunculus medinensis. Infection is acquired by drinking contaminated water with copepods containing infective Guinea Worm (GW) larvae). Almost one year after the infection, the worm usually emerges out through the skin on a lower, causing severe pain and disabilities. Although there is no effective drug or vaccine against the disease, the chain of transmission can be effectively prevented with simple and cost effective public health measures. Death due to dracunculiasis is very rare. However, it results in a wide range of physical, social and economic sequels. The disease is usually common in the rural, remote places of Sub-Saharan African countries among the marginalized societies. Currently, GWD is one of the neglected tropical diseases, which is on the verge of eradication. The global Guinea Worm Eradication Program (GWEP) was started in 1980. Since then, the program has achieved a tremendous success in reducing the global burden and number of GW case from 3.5 million to only 28 human cases at the end of 2018. However, it has recently been shown that not only humans can become infected, with a total of 1,105 animal infections have been reported at the end of 2018. Therefore, the objective of this study was to identify the existing challenges in the last mile of the GWEP in order To inform Policy makers and stakeholders on potential measures to finally achieve eradication. Method Systematic literature review on articles published from January 1, 2000 until May 30, 2019. Papers listed in Cochrane Library, Google Scholar, ProQuest PubMed and Web of Science databases were searched and reviewed. Results Twenty-five articles met inclusion criteria of the study and were selected for analysis. Hence, relevant data were extracted, grouped and descriptively analyzed. Results showed the main challenges complicating the last mile of global GWEP: 1. Unusual mode of transmission; 2. Rising animal Guinea Worm infection; 3. Suboptimal surveillance; 4. Insecurity; 5. Inaccessibility; 6. Inadequate safe water points; 7. Migration; 8. Poor case containment measures, 9. Ecological changes; and 10. New geographic foci of the disease. Conclusion This systematic review identified that most of the current challenges in the GWEP have been present since the start of the campaign. However, the recent change in epidemiological patterns and nature of GWD in the last remaining endemic countries illustrates a new twist in the global GWEP. Considering the complex nature of the current challenges, there seems to be a need for a more coordinated and multidisciplinary approach of GWD prevention and control measures in the last mile of the campaign. These new strategies would help to make history by eradicating dracunculiasis as the first ever parasitic disease.

Keywords: dracunculiasis, eradication program, guinea worm, last mile

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129 Foodborne Outbreak Calendar: Application of Time Series Analysis

Authors: Ryan B. Simpson, Margaret A. Waskow, Aishwarya Venkat, Elena N. Naumova

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The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimate that 31 known foodborne pathogens cause 9.4 million cases of these illnesses annually in US. Over 90% of these illnesses are associated with exposure to Campylobacter, Cryptosporidium, Cyclospora, Listeria, Salmonella, Shigella, Shiga-Toxin Producing E.Coli (STEC), Vibrio, and Yersinia. Contaminated products contain parasites typically causing an intestinal illness manifested by diarrhea, stomach cramping, nausea, weight loss, fatigue and may result in deaths in fragile populations. Since 1998, the National Outbreak Reporting System (NORS) has allowed for routine collection of suspected and laboratory-confirmed cases of food poisoning. While retrospective analyses have revealed common pathogen-specific seasonal patterns, little is known concerning the stability of those patterns over time and whether they can be used for preventative forecasting. The objective of this study is to construct a calendar of foodborne outbreaks of nine infections based on the peak timing of outbreak incidence in the US from 1996 to 2017. Reported cases were abstracted from FoodNet for Salmonella (135115), Campylobacter (121099), Shigella (48520), Cryptosporidium (21701), STEC (18022), Yersinia (3602), Vibrio (3000), Listeria (2543), and Cyclospora (758). Monthly counts were compiled for each agent, seasonal peak timing and peak intensity were estimated, and the stability of seasonal peaks and synchronization of infections was examined. Negative Binomial harmonic regression models with the delta-method were applied to derive confidence intervals for the peak timing for each year and overall study period estimates. Preliminary results indicate that five infections continue to lead as major causes of outbreaks, exhibiting steady upward trends with annual increases in cases ranging from 2.71% (95%CI: [2.38, 3.05]) in Campylobacter, 4.78% (95%CI: [4.14, 5.41]) in Salmonella, 7.09% (95%CI: [6.38, 7.82]) in E.Coli, 7.71% (95%CI: [6.94, 8.49]) in Cryptosporidium, and 8.67% (95%CI: [7.55, 9.80]) in Vibrio. Strong synchronization of summer outbreaks were observed, caused by Campylobacter, Vibrio, E.Coli and Salmonella, peaking at 7.57 ± 0.33, 7.84 ± 0.47, 7.85 ± 0.37, and 7.82 ± 0.14 calendar months, respectively, with the serial cross-correlation ranging 0.81-0.88 (p < 0.001). Over 21 years, Listeria and Cryptosporidium peaks (8.43 ± 0.77 and 8.52 ± 0.45 months, respectively) have a tendency to arrive 1-2 weeks earlier, while Vibrio peaks (7.8 ± 0.47) delay by 2-3 weeks. These findings will be incorporated in the forecast models to predict common paths of the spread, long-term trends, and the synchronization of outbreaks across etiological agents. The predictive modeling of foodborne outbreaks should consider long-term changes in seasonal timing, spatiotemporal trends, and sources of contamination.

Keywords: foodborne outbreak, national outbreak reporting system, predictive modeling, seasonality

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