Search results for: Michael A. James

Authors: Suliman Al-Fayoumi, Sherri Amberg, Huafeng Zhou, Jack W. Singer, James P. Dean

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Pacritinib is an oral kinase inhibitor with specificity for JAK2, FLT3, IRAK1, and CSF1R. In clinical studies, pacritinib was well tolerated with clinical activity in patients with myelofibrosis. The most frequent adverse events (AEs) observed with pacritinib are gastrointestinal (diarrhea, nausea, and vomiting; mostly grade 1-2 in severity) and typically resolve within 2 weeks. A human ADME mass balance study demonstrated that pacritinib is predominantly cleared via hepatic metabolism and biliary excretion (>85% of administered dose). The major hepatic metabolite identified, M1, is not thought to materially contribute to the pharmacological activity of pacritinib. Hepatic diseases are known to impair hepatic blood flow, drug-metabolizing enzymes, and biliary transport systems and may affect drug absorption, disposition, efficacy, and toxicity. This phase 1 study evaluated the pharmacokinetics (PK) and safety of pacritinib and the M1 metabolite in study subjects with mild, moderate, or severe hepatic impairment (HI) and matched healthy subjects with normal liver function to determine if pacritinib dosage adjustments are necessary for patients with varying degrees of hepatic insufficiency. Study participants (aged 18-85 y) were enrolled into 4 groups based on their degree of HI as defined by Child-Pugh Clinical Assessment Score: mild (n=8), moderate (n=8), severe (n=4), and healthy volunteers (n=8) matched for age, BMI, and sex. Individuals with concomitant renal dysfunction or progressive liver disease were excluded. A single 400 mg dose of pacritinib was administered to all participants. Blood samples were obtained for PK evaluation predose and at multiple time points postdose through 168 h. Key PK parameters evaluated included maximum plasma concentration (Cmax), time to Cmax (Tmax), area under the plasma concentration time curve (AUC) from hour zero to last measurable concentration (AUC0-t), AUC extrapolated to infinity (AUC0-∞), and apparent terminal elimination half-life (t1/2). Following treatment, pacritinib was quantifiable for all study participants at 1 h through 168 h postdose. Systemic pacritinib exposure was similar between healthy volunteers and individuals with mild HI. However, there was a significant difference between those with moderate and severe HI and healthy volunteers with respect to peak concentration (Cmax) and plasma exposure (AUC0-t, AUC0-∞). Mean Cmax decreased by 47% and 57% respectively in participants with moderate and severe HI vs matched healthy volunteers. Similarly, mean AUC0-t decreased by 36% and 45% and mean AUC0-∞ decreased by 46% and 48%, respectively in individuals with moderate and severe HI vs healthy volunteers. Mean t1/2 ranged from 51.5 to 74.9 h across all groups. The variability on exposure ranged from 17.8% to 51.8% across all groups. Systemic exposure of M1 was also significantly decreased in study participants with moderate or severe HI vs. healthy participants and individuals with mild HI. These changes were not significantly dissimilar from the inter-patient variability in these parameters observed in healthy volunteers. All AEs were grade 1-2 in severity. Diarrhea and headache were the only AEs reported in >1 participant (n=4 each). Based on these observations, it is unlikely that dosage adjustments would be warranted in patients with mild, moderate, or severe HI treated with pacritinib.

Keywords: pacritinib, myelofibrosis, hepatic impairment, pharmacokinetics

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Authors: Michael Mihalicz, Aziz Guergachi

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Background: The science of modelling choice preferences has evolved over centuries into an interdisciplinary field contributing to several branches of Microeconomics and Mathematical Psychology. Early theories in Decision Science rested on the logic of rationality, but as it and related fields matured, descriptive theories emerged capable of explaining systematic violations of rationality through cognitive mechanisms underlying the thought processes that guide human behaviour. Cognitive limitations are not, however, solely responsible for systematic deviations from rationality and many are now exploring the effect of visceral factors as the more dominant drivers. The current study builds on the existing literature by exploring sleep deprivation, thermal comfort, stress, hunger, fear, anger and sadness as moderators to three distinct elements that define individual risk preference under Cumulative Prospect Theory. Methodology: This study is designed to compare the risk preference of participants experiencing an elevated affective or visceral state to those in a neutral state using nonparametric elicitation methods across three domains. Two experiments will be conducted simultaneously using different methodologies. The first will determine visceral states and risk preferences randomly over a two-week period by prompting participants to complete an online survey remotely. In each round of questions, participants will be asked to self-assess their current state using Visual Analogue Scales before answering a series of lottery-style elicitation questions. The second experiment will be conducted in a laboratory setting using psychological primes to induce a desired state. In this experiment, emotional states will be recorded using emotion analytics and used a basis for comparison between the two methods. Significance: The expected results include a series of measurable and systematic effects on the subjective interpretations of gamble attributes and evidence supporting the proposition that a portion of the variability in human choice preferences unaccounted for by cognitive limitations can be explained by interacting visceral states. Significant results will promote awareness about the subconscious effect that emotions and other drive states have on the way people process and interpret information, and can guide more effective decision making by informing decision-makers of the sources and consequences of irrational behaviour.

Keywords: decision making, emotions, prospect theory, visceral factors

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Authors: Man Fung Ho, Lap So, Jiaqi Zhang, Yuheng Zhao, Huiyang Lu, Tat Shing Choi, K. Y. Michael Wong

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Nowadays, a tremendous amount of data is available in the transportation system, enabling the development of various machine learning approaches to make short-term latency predictions. A natural question is then the choice of relevant information to enable accurate predictions. Using traffic data collected from the Taiwan Freeway System, we consider the prediction of short-term latency of a freeway segment with a length of 17 km covering 5 measurement points, each collecting vehicle-by-vehicle data through the electronic toll collection system. The processed data include the past latencies of the freeway segment with different time lags, the traffic conditions of the individual segments (the accumulations, the traffic fluxes, the entrance and exit rates), the total accumulations, and the weekday latency profiles obtained by Gaussian process regression of past data. We arrive at several important conclusions about how data should be refined to obtain accurate predictions, which have implications for future system-wide latency predictions. (1) We find that the prediction of median latency is much more accurate and meaningful than the prediction of average latency, as the latter is plagued by outliers. This is verified by machine-learning prediction using XGBoost that yields a 35% improvement in the mean square error of the 5-minute averaged latencies. (2) We find that the median latency of the segment 15 minutes ago is a very good baseline for performance comparison, and we have evidence that further improvement is achieved by machine learning approaches such as XGBoost and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM). (3) By analyzing the feature importance score in XGBoost and calculating the mutual information between the inputs and the latencies to be predicted, we identify a sequence of inputs ranked in importance. It confirms that the past latencies are most informative of the predicted latencies, followed by the total accumulation, whereas inputs such as the entrance and exit rates are uninformative. It also confirms that the inputs are much less informative of the average latencies than the median latencies. (4) For predicting the latencies of segments composed of two or three sub-segments, summing up the predicted latencies of each sub-segment is more accurate than the one-step prediction of the whole segment, especially with the latency prediction of the downstream sub-segments trained to anticipate latencies several minutes ahead. The duration of the anticipation time is an increasing function of the traveling time of the upstream segment. The above findings have important implications to predicting the full set of latencies among the various locations in the freeway system.

Keywords: data refinement, machine learning, mutual information, short-term latency prediction

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Authors: Muwaffaq Usman Adam, Isaac Quaye, Jim Anbazu, Yetimoni Kpeebi, Michael Osei-Assibey

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Urban informality, characterized by spontaneous and self-organized practices, plays a significant but often overlooked role in shaping the development of cities, particularly in the context of mixed-use and compact urban environments. This paper aims to explore the invisible planning processes inherent in informal practices and their influence on the urban form of Ghanaian cities. By examining the dynamic interplay between informality and formal planning, the study will discuss the ways in which informal actors shape and plan for mixed-use and compact development. Drawing on the synthesis of relevant secondary data, the research will begin by defining urban informality and identifying the factors that contribute to its prevalence in Ghanaian cities. It will delve into the concept of mixed-use and compact development, highlighting its benefits and importance in urban areas. Drawing on case studies, the paper will uncover the hidden planning processes that occur within informal settlements, showcasing their impact on the physical layout, land use, and spatial arrangements of Ghanaian cities. The study will also uncover the challenges and opportunities associated with informal planning. It examines the constraints faced by informal planners (actors) while also exploring the potential benefits and opportunities that emerge when informality is integrated into formal planning frameworks. By understanding the invisible planner, the research will offer valuable insights into how informal practices can contribute to sustainable and inclusive urban development. Based on the findings, the paper will present policy implications and recommendations. It highlights the need to bridge the policy gaps and calls for the recognition of informal planning practices within formal systems. Strategies are proposed to integrate informality into planning frameworks, fostering collaboration between formal and informal actors to achieve compact and mixed-use development in Ghanaian cities. This research underscores the importance of recognizing and leveraging the invisible planner in Ghanaian cities. By embracing informal planning practices, cities can achieve more sustainable, inclusive, and vibrant urban environments that meet the diverse needs of their residents. This research will also contribute to a deeper understanding of the complex dynamics between informality and planning, advocating for inclusive and collaborative approaches that harness the strengths of both formal and informal actors. The findings will likewise contribute to advancing our understanding of informality's role as an invisible yet influential planner, shedding light on its spatial planning implications on Ghanaian cities.

Keywords: informality, mixed-uses, compact development, land use, ghana

Procedia PDF Downloads 100

Authors: Lisa Tragbar

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In post-war scenarios, reconstruction is a principle towards creating a Just Peace in order to restore a stable post-war society. Just peace theorists explore normative behaviour after war, including the duties and responsibilities of different actors and peacebuilding strategies to achieve a lasting, positive peace. Environmental peace ethicists have argued for including the role of nature in the Ethics of War and Peace. This text explores the question of why and how to rethink the value of nature in post-war scenarios. The aim is to include the rights of nature within a maximalist account of reconstruction by highlighting sumak kawsay in the post-war period. Destruction of nature is usually considered collateral damage in war scenarios. Common universal standards for post-war reconstruction are restitution, compensation and reparation programmes, which is mostly anthropocentric approach. The problem of reconstruction in the aftermath of war is the instrumental value of nature. The responsibility to rebuild needs to be revisited within a non-anthropocentric context. There is an ongoing debate about a minimalist or maximalist approach to post-war reconstruction. While Michael Walzer argues for minimalist in-and-out interventions, Alex Bellamy argues for maximalist strategies such as the responsibility to protect, a UN-concept on how face mass atrocity crimes and how to reconstruct peace. While supporting the tradition of maximalist responsibility to rebuild, these normative post-Bellum concepts do not yet sufficiently consider the rights of nature in the aftermath of war. While reconstruction of infrastructures seems important and necessary, concepts that strengthen the intrinsic value of nature in post-bellum measures must also be included. Peace is not Just Peace without a thriving nature that provides the conditions and resources to live and guarantee human rights. Ecuador's indigenous philosophy of life can contribute to the restoration of nature after war by changing the perspective on the value of nature. The sumak kawsay includes the de-hierarchisation of humans and nature and the principle of reciprocity towards nature. Transferring this idea of life and interconnectedness to post-war reconstruction practices, post bellum perpetrators have restorative obligations not only to people but also to nature. This maximalist approach would include both a restitutive principle, by restoring the balance between humans and nature, and a retributive principle, by punishing the perpetrators through compensatory duties to nature. A maximalist approach to post-war reconstruction that takes into account the rights of nature expands the normative post-war questions to include a more complex field of responsibilities. After a war, Just Peace is restored once not only human rights but also the rights of nature are secured. A minimalist post-bellum approach to reconstruction does not locate future problems at their source and does not offer a solution for the inclusion of obligations to nature. There is a lack of obligations towards nature after a war, which can be changed through a different perspective: The indigenous philosophy of life provides the necessary principles for a comprehensive reconstruction of Just Peace.

Keywords: normative ethics, peace, post-war, sumak kawsay, applied ethics

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Authors: Netasha Shaikh, Bryony Wood, Demitra Tsivos, Michael Knight, Risto Kauppinen, Elizabeth Coulthard

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Background: Effective treatment of dementia will require early diagnosis, before significant brain damage has accumulated. Memory loss is an early symptom of Alzheimer’s disease (AD). The hippocampus, a brain area critical for memory, degenerates early in the course of AD. The hippocampus comprises several subfields. In contrast to healthy aging where CA3 and dentate gyrus are the hippocampal subfields with most prominent atrophy, in AD the CA1 and subiculum are thought to be affected early. Conventional clinical structural neuroimaging is not sufficiently sensitive to identify preferential atrophy in individual subfields. Here, we will explore the sensitivity of new magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) sequences designed to interrogate medial temporal regions as an early marker of Alzheimer’s. As it is likely a combination of tests may predict early Alzheimer’s disease (AD) better than any single test, we look at the potential efficacy of such imaging alone and in combination with standard and novel cognitive tasks of hippocampal dependent memory. Methods: 20 patients with mild cognitive impairment (MCI), 20 with mild-moderate AD and 20 age-matched healthy elderly controls (HC) are being recruited to undergo 3T MRI (with sequences designed to allow volumetric analysis of hippocampal subfields) and a battery of cognitive tasks (including Paired Associative Learning from CANTAB, Hopkins Verbal Learning Test and a novel hippocampal-dependent abstract word memory task). AD participants and healthy controls are being tested just once whereas patients with MCI will be tested twice a year apart. We will compare subfield size between groups and correlate subfield size with cognitive performance on our tasks. In the MCI group, we will explore the relationship between subfield volume, cognitive test performance and deterioration in clinical condition over a year. Results: Preliminary data (currently on 16 participants: 2 AD; 4 MCI; 9 HC) have revealed subfield size differences between subject groups. Patients with AD perform with less accuracy on tasks of hippocampal-dependent memory, and MCI patient performance and reaction times also differ from healthy controls. With further testing, we hope to delineate how subfield-specific atrophy corresponds with changes in cognitive function, and characterise how this progresses over the time course of the disease. Conclusion: Novel sequences on a MRI scanner such as those in route in clinical use can be used to delineate hippocampal subfields in patients with and without dementia. Preliminary data suggest that such subfield analysis, perhaps in combination with cognitive tasks, may be an early marker of AD.

Keywords: Alzheimer's disease, dementia, memory, cognition, hippocampus

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Authors: M. A. C. S. Sampath Fernando, James M. Curran, Renate Meyer

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Model assessment, in the Bayesian context, involves evaluation of the goodness-of-fit and the comparison of several alternative candidate models for predictive accuracy and improvements. In posterior predictive checks, the data simulated under the fitted model is compared with the actual data. Predictive model accuracy is estimated using information criteria such as the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC), the Deviance information criterion (DIC), and the Watanabe-Akaike information criterion (WAIC). The goal of an information criterion is to obtain an unbiased measure of out-of-sample prediction error. Since posterior checks use the data twice; once for model estimation and once for testing, a bias correction which penalises the model complexity is incorporated in these criteria. Cross-validation (CV) is another method used for examining out-of-sample prediction accuracy. Leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV) is the most computationally expensive variant among the other CV methods, as it fits as many models as the number of observations. Importance sampling (IS), truncated importance sampling (TIS) and Pareto-smoothed importance sampling (PSIS) are generally used as approximations to the exact LOO-CV and utilise the existing MCMC results avoiding expensive computational issues. The reciprocals of the predictive densities calculated over posterior draws for each observation are treated as the raw importance weights. These are in turn used to calculate the approximate LOO-CV of the observation as a weighted average of posterior densities. In IS-LOO, the raw weights are directly used. In contrast, the larger weights are replaced by their modified truncated weights in calculating TIS-LOO and PSIS-LOO. Although, information criteria and LOO-CV are unable to reflect the goodness-of-fit in absolute sense, the differences can be used to measure the relative performance of the models of interest. However, the use of these measures is only valid under specific circumstances. This study has developed 11 models using normal, log-normal, gamma, and student’s t distributions to improve the PCR stutter prediction with forensic data. These models are comprised of four with profile-wide variances, four with locus specific variances, and three which are two-component mixture models. The mean stutter ratio in each model is modeled as a locus specific simple linear regression against a feature of the alleles under study known as the longest uninterrupted sequence (LUS). The use of AIC, BIC, DIC, and WAIC in model comparison has some practical limitations. Even though, IS-LOO, TIS-LOO, and PSIS-LOO are considered to be approximations of the exact LOO-CV, the study observed some drastic deviations in the results. However, there are some interesting relationships among the logarithms of pointwise predictive densities (lppd) calculated under WAIC and the LOO approximation methods. The estimated overall lppd is a relative measure that reflects the overall goodness-of-fit of the model. Parallel log-likelihood profiles for the models conditional on equal posterior variances in lppds were observed. This study illustrates the limitations of the information criteria in practical model comparison problems. In addition, the relationships among LOO-CV approximation methods and WAIC with their limitations are discussed. Finally, useful recommendations that may help in practical model comparisons with these methods are provided.

Keywords: cross-validation, importance sampling, information criteria, predictive accuracy

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Authors: Elaine Yee Sing Wong, Jonine Jancey, Andy H. Lee, Anthony P. James

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Singapore has a rapidly aging population, where the majority of older women aged 50 years and above, are physically inactive and have unhealthy dietary habits, placing them at ‘high risk’ of non-communicable diseases. Given the multiplicity of less than optimal dietary habits and high levels of physical inactivity among Singaporean women, it is imperative to develop appropriate lifestyle interventions at recreational centres to enhance both their physical and nutritional knowledge, as well as provide them with the opportunity to develop skills to support behaviour change. To the best of our knowledge, this proposed study is the first physical activity and nutrition cluster randomised controlled trial conducted in Singapore for older women. Findings from this study may provide insights and recommendations for policy makers and key stakeholders to create new healthy living, recreational centres with supportive environments. This 6-month community-based cluster randomised controlled trial will involve the implementation and evaluation of physical activity and nutrition program for community dwelling Singaporean women, who currently attend recreational centres to promote social leisure activities in their local neighbourhood. The intervention will include dietary education and counselling sessions, physical activity classes, and telephone contact by certified fitness instructors and qualified nutritionists. Social Cognitive Theory with Motivational Interviewing will inform the development of strategies to support health behaviour change. Sixty recreational centres located in Singapore will be randomly selected from five major geographical districts and randomly allocated to the intervention (n=30) or control (n=30) cluster. A sample of 600 (intervention n=300; control n=300) women aged 50 years and above will then be recruited from these recreational centres. The control clusters will only undergo pre and post data collection and will not receive the intervention. It is hypothesised that by the end of the intervention, the intervention group participants (n = 300) compared to the control group (n = 300), will show significant improvements in the following variables: lipid profile, body mass index, physical activity and dietary behaviour, anthropometry, mental and physical health. Data collection will be examined and compared via the Statistical Package for the Social Science version 23. Descriptive and summary statistics will be used to quantify participants’ characteristics and outcome variables. Multi-variable mixed regression analyses will be used to confirm the effects of the proposed health intervention, taking into account the repeated measures and the clustering of the observations. The research protocol was approved by the Curtin University Human Research Ethics Committee (approval number: HRE2016-0366). The study has been registered with the Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry (12617001022358).

Keywords: community based, healthy aging, intervention, nutrition, older women, physical activity

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Authors: Ilyas Khan. Liliane Pintelon, Harry Martin, Michael Shömig

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The increasing costs of healthcare on one hand, and the rise in aging population and associated chronic disease, on the other hand, are putting increasing burden on the current health care system in many Western countries. For instance, chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a common disease and in Europe, the cost of renal replacement therapy (RRT) is very significant to the total health care cost. However, the recent advancement in healthcare technology, provide the opportunity to treat patients at home in their own comfort. It is evident that home healthcare offers numerous advantages apparently, low costs and high patients’ quality of life. Despite these advantages, the intake of home hemodialysis (HHD) therapy is still low in particular in Germany. Many factors are accounted for the low number of HHD intake. However, this paper is focusing on patients’ safety-related factors of current HHD practices in Germany. The aim of this paper is to analyze the current HHD practices in Germany and to identify risks related factors if any exist. A case study has been conducted in a dialysis center which consists of four dialysis centers in the south of Germany. In total, these dialysis centers have 350 chronic dialysis patients, of which, four patients are on HHD. The centers have 126 staff which includes six nephrologists and 120 other staff i.e. nurses and administration. The results of the study revealed several risk-related factors. Most importantly, these centers do not offer allied health services at the pre-dialysis stage, the HHD training did not have an established curriculum; however, they have just recently developed the first version. Only a soft copy of the machine manual is offered to patients. Surprisingly, the management was not aware of any standard available for home assessment and installation. The home assessment is done by a third party (i.e. the machines and equipment provider) and they may not consider the hygienic quality of the patient’s home. The type of machine provided to patients at home is similar to the one in the center. The model may not be suitable at home because of its size and complexity. Even though portable hemodialysis machines, which are specially designed for home use, are available in the market such as the NxStage series. Besides the type of machine, no assistance is offered for space management at home in particular for placing the machine. Moreover, the centers do not offer remote assistance to patients and their carer at home. However, telephonic assistance is available. Furthermore, no alternative is offered if a carer is not available. In addition, the centers are lacking medical staff including nephrologists and renal nurses.

Keywords: home hemodialysis, home hemodialysis practices, patients’ related risks in the current home hemodialysis practices, patient safety in home hemodialysis

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Authors: Amirul Adlan, Robert A McCulloch, Neil Jenkins, MIchael Parry, Jonathan Stevenson, Lee Jeys

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Background and Objectives: The current antibiotic prophylaxis for oncological patients is based upon evidence from primary arthroplasty despite significant differences in both patient group and procedure. The aim of this study was to compare the microbiology organisms responsible for PJI in patients who underwent two-stage revision for infected primary knee replacement with those of infected oncological endoprostheses of the lower limb in a single institution. This will subsequently guide decision making regarding antibiotic prophylaxis at primary implantation for oncological procedures and empirical antibiotics for infected revision procedures (where the infecting organism(s) are unknown). Patient and Methods: 118 patients were treated with two-stage revision surgery for infected knee arthroplasty and lower limb endoprostheses between 1999 and 2019. 74 patients had two-stage revision for PJI of knee arthroplasty, and 44 had two-stage revision of lower limb endoprostheses. There were 68 males and 50 females. The mean age for the knee arthroplasty cohort and lower limb endoprostheses cohort were 70.2 years (50-89) and 36.1 years (12-78), respectively (p<0.01). Patient host and extremity criteria were categorised according to the MSIS Host and Extremity Staging System. Patient microbiological culture, the incidence of polymicrobial infection and multi-drug resistance (MDR) were analysed and recorded. Results: Polymicrobial infection was reported in 16% (12 patients) from knee arthroplasty PJI and 14.5% (8 patients) in endoprostheses PJI (p=0.783). There was a significantly higher incidence of MDR in endoprostheses PJI, isolated in 36.4% of cultures, compared to knee arthroplasty PJI (17.2%) (p=0.01). Gram-positive organisms were isolated in more than 80% of cultures from both cohorts. Coagulase-negative Staphylococcus (CoNS) was the commonest gram-positive organism, and Escherichia coli was the commonest Gram-negative organism in both groups. According to the MSIS staging system, the host and extremity grade of knee arthroplasty PJI cohort were significantly better than endoprostheses PJI(p<0.05). Conclusion: Empirical antibiotic management of PJI in orthopaedic oncology is based upon PJI in arthroplasty despite differences in both host and microbiology. Our results show a significant increase in MDR pathogens within the oncological group despite CoNS being the most common infective organism in both groups. Endoprosthetic patients presented with poorer host and extremity criteria. These factors should be considered when managing this complex patient group, emphasising the importance of broad-spectrum antibiotic prophylaxis and preoperative sampling to ensure appropriate perioperative antibiotic cover.

Keywords: microbiology, periprosthetic Joint infection, knee arthroplasty, endoprostheses

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Authors: Michael Huber, Maximilian J. Poller, Jens Tochtermann, Wolfgang Korth, Andreas Jess, Jakob Albert

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Aside from the desulfurisation, the denitrogenation of fuels is of great importance to minimize the environmental impact of transport emissions. The oxidative reaction pathway of organic nitrogen in the catalytic oxidative denitrogenation could be successfully elucidated. This is the first time such a pathway could be traced in detail in non-microbial systems. It was found that the organic nitrogen is first oxidized to nitrate, which is subsequently reduced to molecular nitrogen via nitrous oxide. Hereby, the organic substrate serves as a reducing agent. The discovery of this pathway is an important milestone for the further development of fuel denitrogenation technologies. The United Nations aims to counteract global warming with Net Zero Emissions (NZE) commitments; however, it is not yet foreseeable when crude oil-based fuels will become obsolete. In 2021, more than 50 million barrels per day (mb/d) were consumed for the transport sector alone. Above all, heteroatoms such as sulfur or nitrogen produce SO₂ and NOx during combustion in the engines, which is not only harmful to the climate but also to health. Therefore, in refineries, these heteroatoms are removed by hy-drotreating to produce clean fuels. However, this catalytic reaction is inhibited by the basic, nitrogenous reactants (e.g., quinoline) as well as by NH3. The ion pair of the nitrogen atom forms strong pi-bonds to the active sites of the hydrotreating catalyst, which dimin-ishes its activity. To maximize the desulfurization and denitrogenation effectiveness in comparison to just extraction and adsorption, selective oxidation is typically combined with either extraction or selective adsorption. The selective oxidation produces more polar compounds that can be removed from the non-polar oil in a separate step. The extraction step can also be carried out in parallel to the oxidation reaction, as a result of in situ separation of the oxidation products (ECODS; extractive catalytic oxidative desulfurization). In this process, H8PV5Mo7O40 (HPA-5) is employed as a homogeneous polyoxometalate (POM) catalyst in an aqueous phase, whereas the sulfur containing fuel components are oxidized after diffusion from the organic fuel phase into the aqueous catalyst phase, to form highly polar products such as H₂SO₄ and carboxylic acids, which are thereby extracted from the organic fuel phase and accumulate in the aqueous phase. In contrast to the inhibiting properties of the basic nitrogen compounds in hydrotreating, the oxidative desulfurization improves with simultaneous denitrification in this system (ECODN; extractive catalytic oxidative denitrogenation). The reaction pathway of ECODS has already been well studied. In contrast, the oxidation of nitrogen compounds in ECODN is not yet well understood and requires more detailed investigations.

Keywords: oxidative reaction pathway, denitrogenation of fuels, molecular catalysis, polyoxometalate

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Authors: Fouad M. Bendimerad, Jerome B. Zayas, Michael Adrian T. Padilla

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With the increasing scale of severity and frequency of disasters worldwide, the performance of governance systems for disaster risk reduction and management in many countries are being put to the test. In the Philippines, the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management (DRRM) Act of 2010 (Republic Act 10121 or RA 10121) as the framework for disaster risk reduction and management was tested when Super Typhoon Haiyan hit the eastern provinces of the Philippines in November 2013. Typhoon Haiyan is considered to be the strongest recorded typhoon in history to make landfall with winds exceeding 252 km/hr. In assessing the performance of RA 10121 the authors conducted document reviews of related policies, plans, programs, and key interviews and focus groups with representatives of 21 national government departments, two (2) local government units, six (6) private sector and civil society organizations, and five (5) development agencies. Our analysis will argue that enhancements are needed in RA 10121 in order to meet the challenges of large-scale disasters. The current structure where government agencies and departments organize along DRRM thematic areas such response and relief, preparedness, prevention and mitigation, and recovery and response proved to be inefficient in coordinating response and recovery and in mobilizing resources on the ground. However, experience from various disasters has shown the Philippine government’s tendency to organize major recovery programs along development sectors such as infrastructure, livelihood, shelter, and social services, which is consistent with the concept of DRM mainstreaming. We will argue that this sectoral approach is more effective than the thematic approach to DRRM. The council-type arrangement for coordination has also been rendered inoperable by Typhoon Haiyan because the agency responsible for coordination does not have decision-making authority to mobilize action and resources of other agencies which are members of the council. Resources have been devolved to agencies responsible for each thematic area and there is no clear command and direction structure for decision-making. However, experience also shows that the Philippine government has appointed ad-hoc bodies with authority over other agencies to coordinate and mobilize action and resources in recovering from large-scale disasters. We will argue that this approach be institutionalized within the government structure to enable a more efficient and effective disaster risk reduction and management system.

Keywords: risk reduction and management, recovery, governance, typhoon haiyan response and recovery

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Authors: Michael Kenomore, Mohamed Hassan, Amjad Shah, Hom Dhakal

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Shale gas reservoirs have been of greater importance compared to shale oil reservoirs since 2009 and with the current nature of the oil market, understanding the technical and economic performance of shale gas reservoirs is of importance. Using the Barnett shale as a case study, an economic model was developed to quantify the effect of finding and development costs and gas prices on the basins in the Barnett shale using net present value as an evaluation parameter. A rate of return of 20% and a payback period of 60 months or less was used as the investment hurdle in the model. The Barnett was split into four basins (Strawn Basin, Ouachita Folded Belt, Forth-worth Syncline and Bend-arch Basin) with analysis conducted on each of the basin to provide a holistic outlook. The dataset consisted of only horizontal wells that started production from 2008 to at most 2015 with 1835 wells coming from the strawn basin, 137 wells from the Ouachita folded belt, 55 wells from the bend-arch basin and 724 wells from the forth-worth syncline. The data was analyzed initially on Microsoft Excel to determine the estimated ultimate recoverable (EUR). The range of EUR from each basin were loaded in the Palisade Risk software and a log normal distribution typical of Barnett shale wells was fitted to the dataset. Monte Carlo simulation was then carried out over a 1000 iterations to obtain a cumulative distribution plot showing the probabilistic distribution of EUR for each basin. From the cumulative distribution plot, the P10, P50 and P90 EUR values for each basin were used in the economic model. Gas production from an individual well with a EUR similar to the calculated EUR was chosen and rescaled to fit the calculated EUR values for each basin at the respective percentiles i.e. P10, P50 and P90. The rescaled production was entered into the economic model to determine the effect of the finding and development cost and gas price on the net present value (10% discount rate/year) as well as also determine the scenario that satisfied the proposed investment hurdle. The finding and development costs used in this paper (assumed to consist only of the drilling and completion costs) were £1 million, £2 million and £4 million while the gas price was varied from $2/MCF-$13/MCF based on Henry Hub spot prices from 2008-2015. One of the major findings in this study was that wells in the bend-arch basin were least economic, higher gas prices are needed in basins containing non-core counties and 90% of the Barnet shale wells were not economic at all finding and development costs irrespective of the gas price in all the basins. This study helps to determine the percentage of wells that are economic at different range of costs and gas prices, determine the basins that are most economic and the wells that satisfy the investment hurdle.

Keywords: shale gas, Barnett shale, unconventional gas, estimated ultimate recoverable

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Authors: Dino Carpentras, Paul J. Maher, Caoimhe O'Reilly, Michael Quayle

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Opinion dynamics is a sub-field of agent-based modeling that focuses on people’s opinions and their evolutions over time. Despite the rapid increase in the number of publications in this field, it is still not clear how to apply these models to real-world scenarios. Indeed, there is no agreement on how people update their opinion while interacting. Furthermore, it is not clear if different topics will show the same dynamics (e.g., more polarized topics may behave differently). These problems are mostly due to the lack of experimental validation of the models. Some previous studies started bridging this gap in the literature by directly measuring people’s opinions before and after the interaction. However, these experiments force people to express their opinion as a number instead of using natural language (and then, eventually, encoding it as numbers). This is not the way people normally interact, and it may strongly alter the measured dynamics. Another limitation of these studies is that they usually average all the topics together, without checking if different topics may show different dynamics. In our work, we collected data from 200 participants on 5 unpolarized topics. Participants expressed their opinions in natural language (“agree” or “disagree”). We also measured the certainty of their answer, expressed as a number between 1 and 10. However, this value was not shown to other participants to keep the interaction based on natural language. We then showed the opinion (and not the certainty) of another participant and, after a distraction task, we repeated the measurement. To make the data compatible with opinion dynamics models, we multiplied opinion and certainty to obtain a new parameter (here called “continuous opinion”) ranging from -10 to +10 (using agree=1 and disagree=-1). We firstly checked the 5 topics individually, finding that all of them behaved in a similar way despite having different initial opinions distributions. This suggested that the same model could be applied for different unpolarized topics. We also observed that people tend to maintain similar levels of certainty, even when they changed their opinion. This is a strong violation of what is suggested from common models, where people starting at, for example, +8, will first move towards 0 instead of directly jumping to -8. We also observed social influence, meaning that people exposed with “agree” were more likely to move to higher levels of continuous opinion, while people exposed with “disagree” were more likely to move to lower levels. However, we also observed that the effect of influence was smaller than the effect of random fluctuations. Also, this configuration is different from standard models, where noise, when present, is usually much smaller than the effect of social influence. Starting from this, we built an opinion dynamics model that explains more than 80% of data variance. This model was also able to show the natural conversion of polarization from unpolarized states. This experimental approach offers a new way to build models grounded on experimental data. Furthermore, the model offers new insight into the fundamental terms of opinion dynamics models.

Keywords: experimental validation, micro-dynamics rule, opinion dynamics, update rule

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Authors: Michael Nolte, Iwona Kasior, Kala Flagg, Spiro Karavatas

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Background: Cryotherapy has been used as a post-exercise recovery modality for decades. Whole-body cryotherapy (WBC) is an intervention which involves brief exposures to extremely cold air in order to induce therapeutic effects. It is currently being investigated for its effectiveness in treating certain exercise-induced impairments. Purpose: The purpose of this systematic review was to determine whether WBC as a recovery intervention is more, less, or equally as effective as other interventions at reducing perceived levels of muscle soreness and promoting recovery of muscle function after exercise-induced muscle damage (EIMD) from running. Methods: A systematic review of the current literature was performed utilizing the following MeSH terms: cryotherapy, whole-body cryotherapy, exercise-induced muscle damage, muscle soreness, muscle recovery, and running. The databases utilized were PubMed, CINAHL, EBSCO Host, and Google Scholar. Articles were included if they were published within the last ten years, had a CEBM level of evidence of IIb or higher, had a PEDro scale score of 5 or higher, studied runners as primary subjects, and utilized both perceived levels of muscle soreness and recovery of muscle function as dependent variables. Articles were excluded if subjects did not include runners, if the interventions included PBC instead of WBC, and if both muscle performance and perceived muscle soreness were not assessed within the study. Results: Two of the four articles revealed that WBC was significantly more effective than treatment interventions such as far-infrared radiation and passive recovery at reducing perceived levels of muscle soreness and restoring muscle power and endurance following simulated trail runs and high-intensity interval running, respectively. One of the four articles revealed no significant difference between WBC and passive recovery in terms of reducing perceived muscle soreness and restoring muscle power following sprint intervals. One of the four articles revealed that WBC had a harmful effect compared to CWI and passive recovery on both perceived muscle soreness and recovery of muscle strength and power following a marathon. Discussion/Conclusion: Though there was no consensus in terms of WBC’s effectiveness at treating exercise-induced muscle damage following running compared to other interventions, it seems as though WBC may at least have a time-dependent positive effect on muscle soreness and recovery following high-intensity interval runs and endurance running, marathons excluded. More research needs to be conducted in order to determine the most effective way to implement WBC as a recovery method for exercise-induced muscle damage, including the optimal temperature, timing, duration, and frequency of treatment.

Keywords: cryotherapy, physical therapy intervention, physical therapy, whole body cryotherapy

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Authors: Hazel James P. Agngarayngay, Arnold R. Elepaño

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Mango is the third most important export fruit in the Philippines. Despite the expanding mango trade in world market, problems on postharvest losses caused by pests and diseases are still prevalent. Many disease control and pest disinfestation methods have been studied and adopted. Heat treatment is necessary to eliminate pests and diseases to be able to pass the quarantine requirements of importing countries. During heat treatments, temperature and time are critical because fruits can easily be damaged by over-exposure to heat. Modeling the process enables researchers and engineers to study the behaviour of temperature distribution within the fruit over time. Understanding physical processes through modeling and simulation also saves time and resources because of reduced experimentation. This research aimed to simulate the heat transfer mechanism and predict the temperature distribution in ‘Carabao' mangoes during hot water treatment (HWT) and extended hot water treatment (EHWT). The simulation was performed in ANSYS CFD Software, using ANSYS CFX Solver. The simulation process involved model creation, mesh generation, defining the physics of the model, solving the problem, and visualizing the results. Boundary conditions consisted of the convective heat transfer coefficient and a constant free stream temperature. The three-dimensional energy equation for transient conditions was numerically solved to obtain heat flux and transient temperature values. The solver utilized finite volume method of discretization. To validate the simulation, actual data were obtained through experiment. The goodness of fit was evaluated using mean temperature difference (MTD). Also, t-test was used to detect significant differences between the data sets. Results showed that the simulations were able to estimate temperatures accurately with MTD of 0.50 and 0.69 °C for the HWT and EHWT, respectively. This indicates good agreement between the simulated and actual temperature values. The data included in the analysis were taken at different locations of probe punctures within the fruit. Moreover, t-tests showed no significant differences between the two data sets. Maximum heat fluxes obtained at the beginning of the treatments were 394.15 and 262.77 J.s-1 for HWT and EHWT, respectively. These values decreased abruptly at the first 10 seconds and gradual decrease was observed thereafter. Data on heat flux is necessary in the design of heaters. If underestimated, the heating component of a certain machine will not be able to provide enough heat required by certain operations. Otherwise, over-estimation will result in wasting of energy and resources. This study demonstrated that the simulation was able to estimate temperatures accurately. Thus, it can be used to evaluate the influence of various treatment conditions on the temperature-time history in mangoes. When combined with information on insect mortality and quality degradation kinetics, it could predict the efficacy of a particular treatment and guide appropriate selection of treatment conditions. The effect of various parameters on heat transfer rates, such as the boundary and initial conditions as well as the thermal properties of the material, can be systematically studied without performing experiments. Furthermore, the use of ANSYS software in modeling and simulation can be explored in modeling various systems and processes.

Keywords: heat transfer, heat treatment, mango, modeling and simulation

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Authors: Dino Carpentras, Alejandro Dinkelberg, Michael Quayle

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Within agent-based modeling, opinion dynamics is the field that focuses on modeling people's opinions. In this prolific field, most of the literature is dedicated to the exploration of the two 'degrees of freedom' and how they impact the model’s properties (e.g., the average final opinion, the number of final clusters, etc.). These degrees of freedom are (1) the interaction rule, which determines how agents update their own opinion, and (2) the network topology, which defines the possible interaction among agents. In this work, we show that the third degree of freedom exists. This can be used to change a model's output up to 100% of its initial value or to transform two models (both from the literature) into each other. Since opinion dynamics models are representations of the real world, it is fundamental to understand how people’s opinions can be measured. Even for abstract models (i.e., not intended for the fitting of real-world data), it is important to understand if the way of numerically representing opinions is unique; and, if this is not the case, how the model dynamics would change by using different representations. The process of measuring opinions is non-trivial as it requires transforming real-world opinion (e.g., supporting most of the liberal ideals) to a number. Such a process is usually not discussed in opinion dynamics literature, but it has been intensively studied in a subfield of psychology called psychometrics. In psychometrics, opinion scales can be converted into each other, similarly to how meters can be converted to feet. Indeed, psychometrics routinely uses both linear and non-linear transformations of opinion scales. Here, we analyze how this transformation affects opinion dynamics models. We analyze this effect by using mathematical modeling and then validating our analysis with agent-based simulations. Firstly, we study the case of perfect scales. In this way, we show that scale transformations affect the model’s dynamics up to a qualitative level. This means that if two researchers use the same opinion dynamics model and even the same dataset, they could make totally different predictions just because they followed different renormalization processes. A similar situation appears if two different scales are used to measure opinions even on the same population. This effect may be as strong as providing an uncertainty of 100% on the simulation’s output (i.e., all results are possible). Still, by using perfect scales, we show that scales transformations can be used to perfectly transform one model to another. We test this using two models from the standard literature. Finally, we test the effect of scale transformation in the case of finite precision using a 7-points Likert scale. In this way, we show how a relatively small-scale transformation introduces both changes at the qualitative level (i.e., the most shared opinion at the end of the simulation) and in the number of opinion clusters. Thus, scale transformation appears to be a third degree of freedom of opinion dynamics models. This result deeply impacts both theoretical research on models' properties and on the application of models on real-world data.

Keywords: degrees of freedom, empirical validation, opinion scale, opinion dynamics

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Authors: Pedro P. Drumond, James E. Ball, Priscilla M. Moura, Márcia M. L. P. Coelho

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In recent decades, On-site Stormwater Detention (OSD) systems have been implemented in many cities around the world. In Brazil, urban drainage source control policies were created in the 1990’s and were mainly based on OSD. The concept of this technique is to promote the detention of additional stormwater runoff caused by impervious areas, in order to maintain pre-urbanization peak flow levels. In Australia OSD, was first adopted in the early 1980’s by the Ku-ring-gai Council in Sydney’s northern suburbs and Wollongong City Council. Many papers on the topic were published at that time. However, source control techniques related to stormwater quality have become to the forefront and OSD has been relegated to the background. In order to evaluate the effectiveness of the current regulations regarding OSD, the existing policies were compared in Australian cities, a country considered experienced in the use of this technique, and in Brazilian cities where OSD adoption has been increasing. The cities selected for analysis were Wollongong and Belo Horizonte, the first municipalities to adopt OSD in their respective countries, and Sydney and Porto Alegre, cities where these policies are local references. The Australian and Brazilian cities are located in Southern Hemisphere of the planet and similar rainfall intensities can be observed, especially in storm bursts greater than 15 minutes. Regarding technical criteria, Brazilian cities have a site-based approach, analyzing only on-site system drainage. This approach is criticized for not evaluating impacts on urban drainage systems and in rare cases may cause the increase of peak flows downstream. The city of Wollongong and most of the Sydney Councils adopted a catchment-based approach, requiring the use of Permissible Site Discharge (PSD) and Site Storage Requirements (SSR) values based on analysis of entire catchments via hydrograph-producing computer models. Based on the premise that OSD should be designed to dampen storms of 100 years Average Recurrence Interval (ARI) storm, the values of PSD and SSR in these four municipalities were compared. In general, Brazilian cities presented low values of PSD and high values of SSR. This can be explained by site-based approach and the low runoff coefficient value adopted for pre-development conditions. The results clearly show the differences between approaches and methodologies adopted in OSD designs among Brazilian and Australian municipalities, especially with regard to PSD values, being on opposite sides of the scale. However, lack of research regarding the real performance of constructed OSD does not allow for determining which is best. It is necessary to investigate OSD performance in a real situation, assessing the damping provided throughout its useful life, maintenance issues, debris blockage problems and the parameters related to rain-flow methods. Acknowledgments: The authors wish to thank CNPq - Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (Chamada Universal – MCTI/CNPq Nº 14/2014), FAPEMIG - Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de Minas Gerais, and CAPES - Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior for their financial support.

Keywords: on-site stormwater detention, source control, stormwater, urban drainage

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Authors: Katerina Koliou, Scott Parr, Evangelos Kaisar

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The surface transportation of freight is particularly vulnerable to storm and hurricane disasters, while at the same time, it is the primary transportation mode for delivering medical supplies, fuel, water, and other essential goods. To better plan for commercial vehicles during an evacuation, it is necessary to understand how these vehicles travel during an evacuation and determine if this travel is different from the general public. The research investigation used Florida's statewide continuous-count station traffic volumes, where then compared between years, to identify locations where traffic was moving differently during the evacuation. The data was then used to identify days on which traffic was significantly different between years. While the literature on auto-based evacuations is extensive, the consideration of freight travel is lacking. To better plan for commercial vehicles during an evacuation, it is necessary to understand how these vehicles travel during an evacuation and determine if this travel is different from the general public. The goal of this research was to investigate the movement of vehicles by classification, with an emphasis on freight during two major evacuation events: hurricanes Irma (2017) and Michael (2018). The methodology of the research was divided into three phases: data collection and management, spatial analysis, and temporal comparisons. Data collection and management obtained continuous-co station data from the state of Florida for both 2017 and 2018 by vehicle classification. The data was then processed into a manageable format. The second phase used geographic information systems (GIS) to display where and when traffic varied across the state. The third and final phase was a quantitative investigation into which vehicle classifications were statistically different and on which dates statewide. This phase used a two-sample, two-tailed t-test to compare sensor volume by classification on similar days between years. Overall, increases in freight movement between years prevented a more precise paired analysis. This research sought to identify where and when different classes of vehicles were traveling leading up to hurricane landfall and post-storm reentry. Of the more significant findings, the research results showed that commercial-use vehicles may have underutilized rest areas during the evacuation, or perhaps these rest areas were closed. This may suggest that truckers are driving longer distances and possibly longer hours before hurricanes. Another significant finding of this research was that changes in traffic patterns for commercial-use vehicles occurred earlier and lasted longer than changes for personal-use vehicles. This finding suggests that commercial vehicles are perhaps evacuating in a fashion different from personal use vehicles. This paper may serve as the foundation for future research into commercial travel during evacuations and explore additional factors that may influence freight movements during evacuations.

Keywords: evacuation, freight, travel time, evacuation

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Authors: Johannes Gantner, Michael Held, Rafael Horn, Matthias Fischer

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At the United Nations Climate Change Conference 2015 a global agreement on the reduction of climate change was achieved stating CO₂ reduction targets for all countries. For instance, the EU targets a reduction of 40 percent in emissions by 2030 compared to 1990. In order to achieve this ambitious goal, the environmental performance of the different European electricity grid mixes is crucial. First, the electricity directly needed for everyone’s daily life (e.g. heating, plug load, mobility) and therefore a reduction of the environmental impacts of the electricity grid mix reduces the overall environmental impacts of a country. Secondly, the manufacturing of every product depends on electricity. Thereby a reduction of the environmental impacts of the electricity mix results in a further decrease of environmental impacts of every product. As a result, the implementation of the two-degree goal highly depends on the decarbonization of the European electricity mixes. Currently the production of electricity in the EU27 is based on fossil fuels and therefore bears a high GWP impact per kWh. Due to the importance of the environmental impacts of the electricity mix, not only today but also in future, within the European research projects, CommONEnergy and Senskin, time-dynamic Life Cycle Assessment models for all EU27 countries were set up. As a methodology, a combination of scenario modeling and life cycle assessment according to ISO14040 and ISO14044 was conducted. Based on EU27 trends regarding energy, transport, and buildings, the different national electricity mixes were investigated taking into account future changes such as amount of electricity generated in the country, change in electricity carriers, COP of the power plants and distribution losses, imports and exports. As results, time-dynamic environmental profiles for the electricity mixes of each country and for Europe overall were set up. Thereby for each European country, the decarbonization strategies of the electricity mix are critically investigated in order to identify decisions, that can lead to negative environmental effects, for instance on the reduction of the global warming of the electricity mix. For example, the withdrawal of the nuclear energy program in Germany and at the same time compensation of the missing energy by non-renewable energy carriers like lignite and natural gas is resulting in an increase in global warming potential of electricity grid mix. Just after two years this increase countervailed by the higher share of renewable energy carriers such as wind power and photovoltaic. Finally, as an outlook a first qualitative picture is provided, illustrating from environmental perspective, which country has the highest potential for low-carbon electricity production and therefore how investments in a connected European electricity grid could decrease the environmental impacts of the electricity mix in Europe.

Keywords: electricity grid mixes, EU27 countries, environmental impacts, future trends, life cycle assessment, scenario analysis

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Authors: Khin Thi Htun, James Jain, Tim Andrews

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This study examines the under-researched phenomenon of crowdfunding use and effectiveness in developing non-western markets. More precisely, using an institutional theoretical lens, the research explores the attitudes, motivations, and practice surrounding the initiation, development, and receipt of crowdfunding campaignsin a business context symptomatic of widely dissimilar regulatory, normative cognitive institutional ‘pillars’ to those studied – and utilized in practice - to date. As, in essence, a form of alternative finance, crowdfunding is used primarily to fund a wide range of projects through the securement of small amounts of money from a large pool of investors/participants. Being tied almost inextricably to e-commerce channels, the practice of crowdfunding typically sources its means and communicates the purpose of each venture mainly, though not exclusively, online. The wide range of projects supported to date span social entrepreneurship, community benefits initiatives, creative and artistic endeavors, assistance to disadvantaged social cohorts, and small business start-ups. Adopting a longitudinal, comparative approach, the study reported here embodies an investigation centered on six case start-up campaigns within the Thai societal context, covering a range of fundings calls and cause choices. Data was sourced from a variety of respondents using semi-structured interviews, observation (direct and participant), and company information. Results suggest that the motives and effectiveness of crowdfunding campaigns differ significantly in non-western consumer contexts from the norms that have evolved to date in mature Western contexts(particularly the US and UK). Specifically, whereas data on the different regulatory pressures showed relatively insignificant variation, the results regarding cognitive and, especially, normative dissimilarities between the Thai and US/UK institutional profiles surfaced potentially important differences with far-reaching implications. Particular issuesto emerge from our data concerned consumer motivation in terms of support and engagement with different types of campaigns. This was found to stem from social norms symptomatic of ‘collectivist’ and ‘relations based/particularist’ cultural assistance behavior, in turn, linked to deeply-held societal values regarding interpersonal network (‘in group’) reciprocity. This research serves to refine and extend the limited body of knowledge to date on crowdfunding by exploring the phenomenon in a non-western, non-developed country contextswhere social norms and values differ. This was achieved through uncovering and explicating the effects of cultural dissimilarity on motivation, decision-making, construed ethics, and general engagement with crowdfunding ideas. Implications for theory into e-marketing and cross-cultural marketing, as well as for practitioners seeking to develop effective crowdfunding campaigns in a Southeast Asian cultural environment, are discussed to conclude the paper.

Keywords: crowdfunding, national culture, e-marketing, cross-cultural business

Procedia PDF Downloads 143

Authors: Jannis Kountouras, Nikolaos Kapetanakis, Stergios A. Polyzos, Apostolis Papaeftymiou, Panagiotis Katsinelos, Ioannis Venizelos, Christina Nikolaidou, Christos Zavos, Iordanis Romiopoulos, Elena Tsiaousi, Evangelos Kazakos, Michael Doulberis

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Background & Aims: Helicobacter pylori infection (Hp-I) has been recognized as a substantial risk agent involved in gastrointestinal (GI) tract oncogenesis by stimulating cancer stem cells (CSCs), oncogenes, immune surveillance processes, and triggering GI microbiota dysbiosis. We aimed to investigate the possible involvement of active Hp-I in the sequence: chronic inflammation–adenoma–colorectal cancer (CRC) development. Methods: Four pillars were investigated: (i) endoscopic and conventional histological examinations of patients with CRC, colorectal adenomas (CRA) versus controls to detect the presence of active Hp-I; (ii) immunohistochemical determination of the presence of Hp; expression of CD44, an indicator of CSCs and/or bone marrow-derived stem cells (BMDSCs); expressions of oncogene Ki67 and anti-apoptotic Bcl-2 protein; (iii) expression of CD45, indicator of immune surveillance locally (assessing mainly T and B lymphocytes locally); and (iv) correlation of the studied parameters with the presence or absence of Hp-I. Results: Among 50 patients with CRC, 25 with CRA, and 10 controls, a significantly higher presence of Hp-I in the CRA (68%) and CRC group (84%) were found compared with controls (30%). The presence of Hp-I with accompanying immunohistochemical expression of CD44 in biopsy specimens was revealed in a high proportion of patients with CRA associated with moderate/severe dysplasia (88%) and CRC patients with moderate/severe degree of malignancy (91%). Comparable results were also obtained for Ki67, Bcl-2, and CD45 immunohistochemical expressions. Concluding Remarks: Hp-I seems to be involved in the sequence: CRA – dysplasia – CRC, similarly to the upper GI tract oncogenesis, by several pathways such as the following: Beyond Hp-I associated insulin resistance, the major underlying mechanism responsible for the metabolic syndrome (MetS) that increase the risk of colorectal neoplasms, as implied by other Hp-I related MetS pathologies, such as non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and upper GI cancer, the disturbance of the normal GI microbiota (i.e., dysbiosis) and the formation of an irritative biofilm could contribute to a perpetual inflammatory upper GIT and colon mucosal damage, stimulating CSCs or recruiting BMDSCs and affecting oncogenes and immune surveillance processes. Further large-scale relative studies with a pathophysiological perspective are necessary to demonstrate in-depth this relationship.

Keywords: Helicobacter pylori, colorectal cancer, colorectal adenomas, gastrointestinal oncogenesis

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Authors: Dino Carpentras, Paul Maher, Caoimhe O'Reilly, Michael Quayle

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Opinion dynamics is dedicated to modeling the dynamic evolution of people's opinions. Models in this field are based on a micro-dynamic rule, which determines how people update their opinion when interacting. Despite the high number of new models (many of them based on new rules), little research has been dedicated to experimentally validate the rule. A few studies started bridging this literature gap by experimentally testing the rule. However, in these studies, participants are forced to express their opinion as a number instead of using natural language. Furthermore, some of these studies average data from experimental questions, without testing if differences existed between them. Indeed, it is possible that different topics could show different dynamics. For example, people may be more prone to accepting someone's else opinion regarding less polarized topics. In this work, we collected data from 200 participants on 5 unpolarized topics. Participants expressed their opinions using natural language ('agree' or 'disagree') and the certainty of their answer, expressed as a number between 1 and 10. To keep the interaction based on natural language, certainty was not shown to other participants. We then showed to the participant someone else's opinion on the same topic and, after a distraction task, we repeated the measurement. To produce data compatible with standard opinion dynamics models, we multiplied the opinion (encoded as agree=1 and disagree=-1) with the certainty to obtain a single 'continuous opinion' ranging from -10 to 10. By analyzing the topics independently, we observed that each one shows a different initial distribution. However, the dynamics (i.e., the properties of the opinion change) appear to be similar between all topics. This suggested that the same micro-dynamic rule could be applied to unpolarized topics. Another important result is that participants that change opinion tend to maintain similar levels of certainty. This is in contrast with typical micro-dynamics rules, where agents move to an average point instead of directly jumping to the opposite continuous opinion. As expected, in the data, we also observed the effect of social influence. This means that exposing someone with 'agree' or 'disagree' influenced participants to respectively higher or lower values of the continuous opinion. However, we also observed random variations whose effect was stronger than the social influence’s one. We even observed cases of people that changed from 'agree' to 'disagree,' even if they were exposed to 'agree.' This phenomenon is surprising, as, in the standard literature, the strength of the noise is usually smaller than the strength of social influence. Finally, we also built an opinion dynamics model from the data. The model was able to explain more than 80% of the data variance. Furthermore, by iterating the model, we were able to produce polarized states even starting from an unpolarized population. This experimental approach offers a way to test the micro-dynamic rule. This also allows us to build models which are directly grounded on experimental results.

Keywords: experimental validation, micro-dynamic rule, opinion dynamics, update rule

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Authors: Joel Podgorski, Manouchehr Amini, Annette Johnson, Michael Berg

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One-third of the world’s population relies on groundwater for its drinking water. Natural geogenic arsenic and fluoride contaminate ~10% of wells. Prolonged exposure to high levels of arsenic can result in various internal cancers, while high levels of fluoride are responsible for the development of dental and crippling skeletal fluorosis. In poor urban and rural settings, the provision of drinking water free of geogenic contamination can be a major challenge. In order to efficiently apply limited resources in the testing of wells, water resource managers need to know where geogenically contaminated groundwater is likely to occur. The Groundwater Assessment Platform (GAP) fulfills this need by providing state-of-the-art global arsenic and fluoride contamination hazard maps as well as enabling users to create their own groundwater quality models. The global risk models were produced by logistic regression of arsenic and fluoride measurements using predictor variables of various soil, geological and climate parameters. The maps display the probability of encountering concentrations of arsenic or fluoride exceeding the World Health Organization’s (WHO) stipulated concentration limits of 10 µg/L or 1.5 mg/L, respectively. In addition to a reconsideration of the relevant geochemical settings, these second-generation maps represent a great improvement over the previous risk maps due to a significant increase in data quantity and resolution. For example, there is a 10-fold increase in the number of measured data points, and the resolution of predictor variables is generally 60 times greater. These same predictor variable datasets are available on the GAP platform for visualization as well as for use with a modeling tool. The latter requires that users upload their own concentration measurements and select the predictor variables that they wish to incorporate in their models. In addition, users can upload additional predictor variable datasets either as features or coverages. Such models can represent an improvement over the global models already supplied, since (a) users may be able to use their own, more detailed datasets of measured concentrations and (b) the various processes leading to arsenic and fluoride groundwater contamination can be isolated more effectively on a smaller scale, thereby resulting in a more accurate model. All maps, including user-created risk models, can be downloaded as PDFs. There is also the option to share data in a secure environment as well as the possibility to collaborate in a secure environment through the creation of communities. In summary, GAP provides users with the means to reliably and efficiently produce models specific to their region of interest by making available the latest datasets of predictor variables along with the necessary modeling infrastructure.

Keywords: arsenic, fluoride, groundwater contamination, logistic regression

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Authors: Larry Hawkins, Scott K. Sakakura, Michael J. Salopek

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The Marshall Space Flight Center is designing and building a next-generation CO₂ removal system, the Four Bed Carbon Dioxide Scrubber (4BCO₂), which will use the International Space Station (ISS) as a testbed. The current ISS CO2 removal system has faced many challenges in both performance and reliability. Given that CO2 removal is an integral Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) subsystem, the 4BCO2 Scrubber has been designed to eliminate the shortfalls identified in the current ISS system. One of the key required upgrades was to improve the performance and reliability of the blower that provides the airflow through the CO₂ sorbent beds. A magnetically levitated blower, capable of higher airflow and pressure than the previous system, was developed to meet this need. The design and qualification testing of this next-generation blower are described here. The new blower features a high-efficiency permanent magnet motor, a five-axis, active magnetic bearing system, and a compact controller containing both a variable speed drive and a magnetic bearing controller. The blower uses a centrifugal impeller to pull air from the inlet port and drive it through an annular space around the motor and magnetic bearing components to the exhaust port. Technical challenges of the blower and controller development include survival of the blower system under launch random vibration loads, operation in microgravity, packaging under strict size and weight requirements, and successful operation during 4BCO₂ operational changeovers. An ANSYS structural dynamic model of the controller was used to predict response to the NASA defined random vibration spectrum and drive minor design changes. The simulation results are compared to measurements from qualification testing the controller on a vibration table. Predicted blower performance is compared to flow loop testing measurements. Dynamic response of the system to valve changeovers is presented and discussed using high bandwidth measurements from dynamic pressure probes, magnetic bearing position sensors, and actuator coil currents. The results presented in the paper show that the blower controller will survive launch vibration levels, the blower flow meets the requirements, and the magnetic bearings have adequate load capacity and control bandwidth to maintain the desired rotor position during the valve changeover transients.

Keywords: blower, carbon dioxide removal, environmental control and life support system, magnetic bearing, permanent magnet motor, validation testing, vibration

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Authors: Nalika S. Rajapaksha, James Airton, Amina Aboobakar, Nick Chappell, Andy Dyer

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Nutrient pollution and their impact on water quality is a key concern in England. Many water quality issues originate from multiple sources of pollution spread across the catchment. The river water quality in England has improved since 1990s and wastewater effluent discharges into rivers now contain less phosphorus than in the past. However, excess phosphorus is still recognised as the prevailing issue for rivers failing Water Framework Directive (WFD) good ecological status. To achieve WFD Phosphorus objectives, Wastewater Treatment Works (WwTW) permit limits are becoming increasingly stringent. Nevertheless, in some rural catchments, the apportionment of Phosphorus pollution can be greater from agricultural runoff and other sources such as septic tanks. Therefore, the challenge of meeting the requirements of watercourses to deliver WFD objectives often goes beyond water company activities, providing significant opportunities to co-deliver activities in wider catchments to reduce nutrient load at source. The aim of this study was to apply the United Utilities' Catchment Systems Thinking (CaST) strategy and pilot an innovative permitting approach - Catchment Nutrient Balancing (CNB) in a rural catchment in Cumbria (the River Petteril) in collaboration with the regulator and others to achieve WFD objectives and multiple benefits. The study area is mainly agricultural land, predominantly livestock farms. The local ecology is impacted by significant nutrient inputs which require intervention to meet WFD obligations. There are a range of Phosphorus inputs into the river, including discharges from wastewater assets but also significantly from agricultural contributions. Solely focusing on the WwTW discharges would not have resolved the problem hence in order to address this issue effectively, a CNB trial was initiated at a small WwTW, targeting the removal of a total of 150kg of Phosphorus load, of which 13kg were to be reduced through the use of catchment interventions. Various catchment interventions were implemented across selected farms in the upstream of the catchment and also an innovative polonite reactive filter media was implemented at the WwTW as an alternative to traditional Phosphorus treatment methods. During the 3 years of this trial, the impact of the interventions in the catchment and the treatment works were monitored. In 2020 and 2022, it respectively achieved a 69% and 63% reduction in the phosphorus level in the catchment against the initial reduction target of 9%. Phosphorus treatment at the WwTW had a significant impact on overall load reduction. The wider catchment impact, however, was seven times greater than the initial target when wider catchment interventions were also established. While it is unlikely that all the Phosphorus load reduction was delivered exclusively from the interventions implemented though this project, this trial evidenced the enhanced benefits that can be achieved with an integrated approach, that engages all sources of pollution within the catchment - rather than focusing on a one-size-fits-all solution. Primarily, the CNB approach and the act of collaboratively engaging others, particularly the agriculture sector is likely to yield improved farm and land management performance and better compliance, which can lead to improved river quality as well as wider benefits.

Keywords: agriculture, catchment nutrient balancing, phosphorus pollution, water quality, wastewater

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Authors: Aleksandra Bylinska, Samantha Slight-Webb, Kevin Thomas, Miles Smith, Susan Macwana, Nicolas Dominguez, Eliza Chakravarty, Joan T. Merrill, Judith A. James, Joel M. Guthridge

Abstract:

Background: Systemic Lupus Erythematosus (SLE) is an interferon-related autoimmune disease characterized by B cell dysfunction. One of the main hallmarks is a loss of tolerance to self-antigens leading to increased levels of autoantibodies against nuclear components (ANAs). However, up to 20% of healthy ANA+ individuals will not develop clinical illness. SLE is more prevalent among women and minority populations (African, Asian American and Hispanics). Moreover, African Americans have a stronger interferon (IFN) signature and develop more severe symptoms. The exact mechanisms involved in ethnicity-dependent B cell dysregulation and the progression of autoimmune disease from ANA+ healthy individuals to clinical disease remains unclear. Methods: Peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs) from African (AA) and European American (EA) ANA- (n=12), ANA+ (n=12) and SLE (n=12) individuals were assessed by multimodal scRNA-Seq/CITE-Seq methods to examine differential gene signatures in specific B cell subsets. Library preparation was done with a 10X Genomics Chromium according to established protocols and sequenced on Illumina NextSeq. The data were further analyzed for distinct cluster identification and differential gene signatures in the Seurat package in R and pathways analysis was performed using Ingenuity Pathways Analysis (IPA). Results: Comparing all subjects, 14 distinct B cell clusters were identified using a community detection algorithm and visualized with Uniform Manifold Approximation Projection (UMAP). The proportion of each of those clusters varied by disease status and ethnicity. Transitional B cells trended higher in ANA+ healthy individuals, especially in AA. Ribonucleoprotein high population (HNRNPH1 elevated, heterogeneous nuclear ribonucleoprotein, RNP-Hi) of proliferating Naïve B cells were more prevalent in SLE patients, specifically in EA. Interferon-induced protein high population (IFIT-Hi) of Naive B cells are increased in EA ANA- individuals. The proportion of memory B cells and plasma cells clusters tend to be expanded in SLE patients. As anticipated, we observed a higher signature of cytokine-related pathways, especially interferon, in SLE individuals. Pathway analysis among AA individuals revealed an NRF2-mediated Oxidative Stress response signature in the transitional B cell cluster, not seen in EA individuals. TNFR1/2 and Sirtuin Signaling pathway genes were higher in AA IFIT-Hi Naive B cells, whereas they were not detected in EA individuals. Interferon signaling was observed in B cells in both ethnicities. Oxidative phosphorylation was found in age-related B cells (ABCs) for both ethnicities, whereas Death Receptor Signaling was found only in EA patients in these cells. Interferon-related transcription factors were elevated in ABCs and IFIT-Hi Naive B cells in SLE subjects of both ethnicities. Conclusions: ANA+ healthy individuals have altered gene expression pathways in B cells that might drive apoptosis and subsequent clinical autoimmune pathogenesis. Increases in certain regulatory pathways may delay progression to SLE. Further, AA individuals have more elevated activation pathways that may make them more susceptible to SLE.

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Authors: Parvesh Singh, Vipan Kumar, Vishu Mehra

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Quinoline-4-ones represent an important class of heterocyclic scaffolds that have attracted significant interest due to their various biological and pharmacological activities. This heterocyclic unit also constitutes an integral component in drugs used for the treatment of neurodegenerative diseases, sleep disorders and in antibiotics viz. norfloxacin and ciprofloxacin. The synthetic accessibility and possibility of fictionalization at varied positions in quinoline-4-ones exemplifies an elegant platform for the designing of combinatorial libraries of functionally enriched scaffolds with a range of pharmacological profles. They are also considered to be attractive precursors for the synthesis of medicinally imperative molecules such as non-steroidal androgen receptor antagonists, antimalarial drug Chloroquine and martinellines with antibacterial activity. 2-Aryl-2,3-dihydroquinolin-4(1H)-ones are present in many natural and non-natural compounds and are considered to be the aza-analogs of favanones. The β-lactam class of antibiotics is generally recognized to be a cornerstone of human health care due to the unparalleled clinical efficacy and safety of this type of antibacterial compound. In addition to their biological relevance as potential antibiotics, β-lactams have also acquired a prominent place in organic chemistry as synthons and provide highly efficient routes to a variety of non-protein amino acids, such as oligopeptides, peptidomimetics, nitrogen-heterocycles, as well as biologically active natural and unnatural products of medicinal interest such as indolizidine alkaloids, paclitaxel, docetaxel, taxoids, cyptophycins, lankacidins, etc. A straight forward route toward the synthesis of quinoline-4-ones via the triflic acid assisted Fries rearrangement of N-aryl-βlactams has been reported by Tepe and co-workers. The ring expansion observed in this case was solely attributed to the inherent ring strain in β-lactam ring because -lactam failed to undergo rearrangement under reaction conditions. Theabovementioned protocol has been recently extended by our group for the synthesis of benzo[b]-azocinon-6-ones via a tandem Michael addition–Fries rearrangement of sorbyl anilides as well as for the single-pot synthesis of 2-aryl-quinolin-4(3H)-ones through the Fries rearrangement of 3-dienyl-βlactams. In continuation with our synthetic endeavours with the β-lactam ring and in view of the lack of convenient approaches for the synthesis of C-3 functionalized quinolin-4(1H)-ones, the present work describes the single-pot synthesis of C-3 functionalized quinolin-4(1H)-ones via the trific acid promoted Fries rearrangement of C-3 vinyl/isopropenyl substituted β-lactams. In addition, DFT calculations and MD simulations were performed to investigate the stability profles of synthetic compounds.

Keywords: dihydroquinoline, fries rearrangement, azetidin-2-ones, quinoline-4-ones

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Authors: Michael McTighe

Abstract:

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic caused the cancellation of many large-scale in-person sporting events, which led to an increase in the availability of virtual ultra-marathons. This study intended to assess how participation in virtual long distances races relates to levels of physical activity for an extended period of time. Moreover, traditional ultra-marathons are known for being not only physically demanding, but also mentally and emotionally challenging. A second component of this study was to assess how psychological contructs related to emotion regulation and mental toughness predict overall performance in the sport. Method: 83 virtual runners participating in a four-month 1000-kilometer race with the option to exceed 1000 kilometers completed a questionnaire exploring demographics, their performance, and experience in the virtual race. Participants also completed the Difficulties in Emotions Regulation Scale (DERS) and the Sports Mental Toughness Questionnaire (SMTQ). Logistics regressions assessed these constructs’ utility in predicting completion of the 1000-kilometer distance in the time allotted. Multiple regression was employed to predict the total distance traversed during the fourmonth race beyond 1000-kilometers. Result: Neither mental toughness nor emotional regulation was a significant predictor of completing the virtual race’s basic 1000-kilometer finish. However, both variables included together were marginally significant predictors of total miles traversed over the entire event beyond 1000 K (p = .051). Additionally, participation in the event promoted an increase in healthy activity with participants running and walking significantly more in the four months during the event than the four months leading up to it. Discussion: This research intended to explore how psychological constructs relate to performance in a virtual type of endurance event, and how involvement in these types of events related to levels of activity. Higher levels of mental toughness and lower levels in difficulties in emotion regulation were associated with greater performance, and participation in the event promoted an increase in athletic involvement. Future psychological skill training aimed at improving emotion regulation and mental toughness may be used to enhance athletic performance in these sports, and future investigations into these events could explore how general participation may influence these constructs over time. Finally, these results suggest that participation in this logistically accessible, and affordable type of sport can promote greater involvement in healthy activities related to running and walking.

Keywords: virtual races, emotion regulation, mental toughness, ultra-marathon, predictors in performance

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Authors: Omar Romero-Hernandez, Federico Castillo, Armando Sanchez, Sergio Romero, Andrea Romero, Michael Mitchell

Abstract:

Environmental policies for resource conservation in rural areas include subsidies on services and social programs to cover living expenses. Government's expectation is that rural communities who benefit from social programs, such as payment for ecosystem services, are provided with an incentive to conserve natural resources and preserve natural sinks for greenhouse gases. At the same time, global climate change has affected the lives of people worldwide. The capability to adapt to global warming depends on the available resources and the standard of living, putting rural communities at a disadvantage. This paper explores whether rural entrepreneurship can represent a solution to resource conservation and global warming adaptation in rural communities. The research focuses on a sample of two coffee communities in Oaxaca, Mexico. Researchers used geospatial information contained in aerial photographs of the geographical areas of interest. Households were identified in the photos via the roofs of households and georeferenced via coordinates. From the household population, a random selection of roofs was performed and received a visit. A total of 112 surveys were completed, including questions of socio-demographics, perception to climate change and adaptation activities. The population includes two groups of study: entrepreneurs and non-entrepreneurs. Data was sorted, filtered, and validated. Analysis includes descriptive statistics for exploratory purposes and a multi-regression analysis. Outcomes from the surveys indicate that coffee farmers, who demonstrate entrepreneurship skills and hire employees, are more eager to adapt to climate change despite the extreme adverse socioeconomic conditions of the region. We show that farmers with entrepreneurial tendencies are more creative in using innovative farm practices such as the planting of shade trees, the use of live fencing, instead of wires, and watershed protection techniques, among others. This result counters the notion that small farmers are at the mercy of climate change and have no possibility of being able to adapt to a changing climate. The study also points to roadblocks that farmers face when coping with climate change. Among those roadblocks are a lack of extension services, access to credit, and reliable internet, all of which reduces access to vital information needed in today’s constantly changing world. Results indicate that, under some circumstances, funding and supporting entrepreneurship programs may provide more benefit than traditional social programs.

Keywords: entrepreneurship, global warming, rural communities, climate change adaptation

Procedia PDF Downloads 223