Search results for: incomplete spending.

Authors: Pascal Horni, Sandro Fuchs

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In presence of increasing deficits and public debt among OECD countries, the debate on fiscal disciple and mechanisms to constrain public spending policy heated up and gave rise to the institutionalization of fiscal rules. Considering the notions from political economy literature and the therein advocated axiom of maximization of votes, introduction of institutional mechanisms and rules to govern public spending is likely to be coined by electoral motives. While there exists a series of research concerned with the rise of creative accounting in the presence fiscal rules, implementation of accrual government accounting and its impact on the biting of fiscal rules has to authors’ best knowledge never been explored. This paper serves the illumination of the connection between debt break mechanisms and the adoption of accrual public sector accounting standards such as the IPSAS in the interface of political economy in the Swiss context. By explicitly considering the technical accounting dimension, this paper develops an integrated conceptual view on well-established Public Financial Management (PFM) institutions and elaborates how their interdependencies can co-create value with regard to the contemporary challenge of fiscal sustainability. Derivation of this integrated view follows an explorative approach, taking into account expert interviews with director level staff from cantonal finance administrations and policy documents, as well as literature from both research areas – public sector accounting and political economy.

Keywords: accounting, fiscal rules, International Public Sector Accounting Standards (IPSAS), public financial management

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Authors: Amenawo I. Offiong, Hodo B. Riman

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Public debt profile of Nigeria has continuously been on the increase over the years. The drop in international crude oil prices has further worsened revenue position of the country, thus, necessitating further acquisition of public debt to bridge the gap in revenue deficit. Yet, when we look back at the increasing public sector spending, there are concerns that the government spending do not amount to increase in public goods provided for the country. Using data from 1980 to 2014 the study therefore seeks to investigate the factors responsible for the poor provision of public goods in the face of increasing public debt profile. Using the unrestricted VAR model Governance and Tax revenue were introduced into the model as structural variables. The result suggested that governance and tax revenue were structural determinants of the effectiveness of public goods provisioning in Nigeria. The study therefore identified weak governance as the major reason for the non-provision of public goods in Nigeria. While tax revenue exerted positive influence on the provisions of public goods, weak/poor governance was observed to crowd the benefits from increase tax revenue. The study therefore recommends reappraisal of the governance system in Nigeria. Elected officers in governance should be more transparent and accountable to the electorates they represent. Furthermore, the study advocates for an annual auditing of all government MDAs accounts by external auditors to ensure (a) accountability of public debts utilization, (b) transparent in implementation of program support funds, (c) integrity of agencies responsible for program management, and (d) measuring program effectiveness with amount of funds expended.

Keywords: impulse response function, public debt shocks, governance, public goods, tax revenue, vector auto-regression

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Authors: Ahmed Noor Al-qayyim, Barlas Özden Çağlayan

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Structural failure is caused mainly by damage that often occurs on structures. Many researchers focus on obtaining very efficient tools to detect the damage in structures in the early state. In the past decades, a subject that has received considerable attention in literature is the damage detection as determined by variations in the dynamic characteristics or response of structures. This study presents a new damage identification technique. The technique detects the damage location for the incomplete structure system using output data only. The method indicates the damage based on the free vibration test data by using “Two Points - Condensation (TPC) technique”. This method creates a set of matrices by reducing the structural system to two degrees of freedom systems. The current stiffness matrices are obtained from optimization of the equation of motion using the measured test data. The current stiffness matrices are compared with original (undamaged) stiffness matrices. High percentage changes in matrices’ coefficients lead to the location of the damage. TPC technique is applied to the experimental data of a simply supported steel beam model structure after inducing thickness change in one element. Where two cases are considered, the method detects the damage and determines its location accurately in both cases. In addition, the results illustrate that these changes in stiffness matrix can be a useful tool for continuous monitoring of structural safety using ambient vibration data. Furthermore, its efficiency proves that this technique can also be used for big structures.

Keywords: damage detection, optimization, signals processing, structural health monitoring, two points–condensation

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Authors: Aisling Eves, Andrew Pieri, Ross McLean, Nerys Forester

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Background: The breast unit local guideline recommends that 12 cores should be used in a stereotactic-guided biopsy to diagnose DCIS. Twelve cores are regarded to provide good diagnostic value without removing more breast tissue than necessary. This study aimed to determine compliance with guidelines and investigated how the number of cores impacted upon the re-excision rate and size discrepancies. Methods: This single-centre retrospective cohort study of 72 consecutive breast screened patients with <15mm DCIS on radiological report underwent stereotactic-guided core biopsy and subsequent surgical excision. Clinical, radiological, and histological data were collected over 5 years, and ASCO guidelines for margin involvement of <2mm was used to guide the need for re-excision. Results: Forty-six (63.9%) patients had <12 cores taken, and 26 (36.1%) patients had ≥12 cores taken. Only six (8.3%) patients had 12 cores taken in their stereotactic biopsy. Incomplete surgical excision was seen in 17 patients overall (23.6%), and of these patients, twelve (70.6%) had fewer than 12 cores taken (p=0.55 for the difference between groups). Mammogram and biopsy underestimated the size of the DCIS in this subgroup by a median of 15mm (range: 6-135mm). Re-excision was required in 9 patients (12.5%), and five patients (6.9%) were found to have invasive ductal carcinoma on excision (80% had <12 cores, p=0.43). Discussion: There is poor compliance with the breast unit local guidelines and higher rates of re-excision in patients who did not have ≥12 cores taken. Taking ≥12 cores resulted in fewer missed invasive cancers lower incomplete excision and re-excision rates.

Keywords: stereotactic core biopsy, DCIS, breast screening, Re-excision rates, core biopsy

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Authors: Giorgi Gaprindashvili

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One of the best examples, in evolution of the public procurement, from post-soviet countries are reforms carried out in Georgia, which brought them close to international standards of procurement. In Georgia, public procurement legislation started functioning in 1998. The reform has passed several stages and came in the form as it is today. It should also be noted, that countries with economy in transition, including Georgia, implemented all the reforms in public procurement based on recommendations and support of World Bank, the United Nations and other international organizations. The first law on public procurement in Georgia was adopted on December 9, 1998 which aimed regulation of the procurement process of budget-organizations, transparent and competitive environment for private companies to access state funds legally. The priorities were identified quite clearly in the wording of the law, but operation/function of this law could not be reached on its level, because of some objective and subjective reasons. The high level of corruption in all levels of governance, can be considered as a main obstacle reason and of course, it is natural, that it had direct impact on the procurement process, as well as on transparency and rational use of state funds. This circumstances were the reasons that reforms in this sphere continued, to improve procurement process, in particular, the first wave of reforms began in 2001. Public procurement agency carried out reform with World Bank with main purpose of smartening the procurement legislation and its harmonization with international treaties and agreements. Also with the support of World Bank various activities were carried out to raise awareness of participants involved in procurement system. Further major changes in the legislation were filed in May 2005, which was also directed towards the improvement and smarten of the procurement process. The third wave of the reform began in 2010, which more or less guaranteed the transparency of the procurement process, which later became the basis for the rational spending of state funds. The reform of the procurement system completely changed the procedures. Carried out reform in Georgia resulted in introducing new electronic tendering system, which benefit the transparency of the process, after this became the basis for the further development of a competitive environment, which become a prerequisite for the state rational spending. Increased number of supplier organizations participating in the procurement process resulted in reduction of the estimated cost and the actual cost from 20% up to 40%, it is quite large saving for the procuring organizations and allows them to use the freed-up funds for their other needs. Assessment of the reforms in Georgia in the field of public procurement can be concluded, that proper regulation of the sector and relevant policy may proceed to rational and transparent spending of the budget from country’s state institutions. Also, the business sector has the opportunity to work in competitive market conditions and to make a preliminary analysis, which is a prerequisite for future strategy and development.

Keywords: public administration, public procurement, reforms, transparency

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Authors: Ni̇sa Yeni̇kalayci, Türkan Aybi̇ke Akarca

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The ability of correlation the number and space relations, one of the basic scientific process skills, is being used in the transformation of a two-dimensional object into a three-dimensional image or in the expression of symmetry axes of the object. With this research, it is aimed to determine the ability of science students to establish number and space relations. The research was carried out with a total of 90 students studying in the first semester of the Science Education program of a state university located in the Turkey’s Black Sea Region in the fall semester of 2017-2018 academic year. An ‘Integrative Perception Test (IPT)’ was designed by the researchers to collect the data. Within the scope of IPT, the courses and workbooks specific to the field of science were scanned and the ones without symmetrical structure from the visual items belonging to the ‘Physics - Chemistry – Biology’ sub-fields were selected and listed. During the application, it was expected that students would imagine and draw images of the missing half of the visual items that were given incomplete in the first place. The data obtained from the test in which there are 30 images or pictures in total (f Physics = 10, f Chemistry = 10, f Biology = 10) were analyzed descriptively based on the drawings created by the students as ‘complete (2 points), incomplete/wrong (1 point), empty (0 point)’. For the teaching of new concepts in small aged groups, images or pictures showing symmetrical structures and similar applications can also be used.

Keywords: integrative perception, number and space relations, science education, scientific process skills

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Authors: Ayman Bani Salameh

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Background: Obesity in children is in increasing in developed and developing countries, which leads to morbidity and premature mortality. Lifestyle behaviors are an important issue in minimizing this problem and subsequent complications. Thus, this study purposed to assess lifestyle behaviors, including dietary habits and physical activity, among Jordanian obese children aged 6-9 years. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted on 324 children aged 6-9 years using a questionnaire consisting of items measuring dietary habits (7 items) and physical activity (8 items). Results: Findings showed that obese children had bad dietary habits involved in the number of meals eaten day (M= 5.06, SD=1.14), number of snacks of sweet/ chocolates daily (M= 3. 61, SD=0.82), and number of glasses of sweet fizzy drinks/day (M= 3.39, SD=0.96). Moreover, they had poor physical activity represented in the number of playing or training in an activity like dancing, swimming, and walking in the past week (M= 0.06, SD=1.01), number of days in participating in moderate physical activity last week (M= 0.06, SD=1.01), time spending in using a computer, watching TV, watching videos or using the internet as a part of study or homework in the last week (M= 16.88, SD=2.37), and ), time spending in using a computer, watching TV, watching videos or using the internet for fun or recreation in the past week (M= 14.44, SD=2.37). Conclusion: Obese children aged 6-9 had unhealthy lifestyle behaviors, which could expose them to a high risk of increasing comorbidities associated with obesity. Therefore, this preliminary study helps develop an intervention program based on modifying unhealthy behaviors, including bad dietary habits and a sedentary lifestyle. The results provide baseline data about the strategies for developing intervention programs for weight reduction.

Keywords: obesity, children, behaviors, lifestyle

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Authors: R. Whalley

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The heat transfer modelling for a diffusion process will be considered. Difficulties in computing the time-distance dynamics of the representation will be addressed. Incomplete and irrational Laplace function will be identified as the computational issue. Alternative approaches to the response evaluation process will be provided. An illustration application problem will be presented. Graphical results confirming the theoretical procedures employed will be provided.

Keywords: heat, transfer, diffusion, modelling, computation

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Authors: Walaa Diab, Baher Atlam, Nadia El Nimer

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Egypt faces many obvious economic challenges, and it is so clear that a real economic transformation is needed to address those problems, especially after the recent decisions of floating the Egyptian pound and the gradual subsidy cuts that are trying to meet the needed conditions to get the IMF support of (a £12bn loan) for its economic reform program. Following the post-2008 revival of the interest in the fiscal policy and its vital role in speeding up or slowing down the economic growth. Here comes the value of this paper as it seeks to analyze the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Egypt by applying A Bayesian SVAR Approach. The study uses the Bayesian method because it includes the prior information and no relevant information is omitted and so it is well suited for rational, evidence-based decision-making. Since the study aims to define the effects of fiscal policy shocks in Egypt to help the decision-makers in determining the proper means to correct the structural problems in the Egyptian economy, it has to study the period of 1990s economic reform, but unfortunately; the available data is on an annual frequency. Thus, it uses annual time series to study the period 1991: 2005 And quarterly data over the period 2006–2016. It uses a set of six main variables includes government expenditure and net tax revenues as fiscal policy arms affecting real GDP, unemployment, inflation and the interest rate. The study also tries to assess the 'crowding out' effects by considering the effects of government spending and government revenue shocks on the composition of GDP, namely, on private consumption and private investment. Last but not least the study provides its policy implications regarding the needed role of fiscal policy in Egypt in the upcoming economic reform building on the results it concludes from the previous reform program.

Keywords: fiscal policy, government spending, structural vector autoregression, taxation

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Authors: Ima Rahmawati, Nur Hafizul Kalam

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Development of industrial and economic sectors in various countries very rapidly caused raising the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Greenhouse gases are dominated by carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) in the atmosphere that make the surface temperature of the earth always increase. The increasing gases caused by incomplete combustion of fossil fuels such as petroleum and coals and also high rate of deforestation. Yogyakarta Special Province which every year always become tourist destination, has a great potency in increasing of greenhouse gas emissions mainly from the incomplete combustion. One of effort to reduce the concentration of gases in the atmosphere is keeping and empowering the existing forests in the Province of Yogyakarta, especially forest in Kulonprogro is to be maintained the greenness so that it can absorb and store carbon maximally. Remote sensing technology can be used to determine the ability of forests to absorb carbon and it is connected to the density of vegetation. The purpose of this study is to determine the density of the biomass of forest vegetation and determine the ability of forests to store carbon through Photo-interpretation and Geographic Information System approach. Remote sensing imagery that used in this study is LANDSAT 8 OLI year 2015 recording. LANDSAT 8 OLI imagery has 30 meters spatial resolution for multispectral bands and it can give general overview the condition of the carbon stored from every density of existing vegetation. The method is the transformation of vegetation index combined with allometric calculation of field data then doing regression analysis. The results are model maps of density and capability level of forest vegetation in Kulonprogro, Yogyakarta in storing carbon.

Keywords: remote sensing, carbon, kulonprogo, forest vegetation, vegetation index

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Authors: Popoola I. Olayinka, Alamu E. Oladeji, B. Maziya-Dixon

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Cassava, an indigenous crop grown locally by subsistence farmers in Nigeria has potential to bring economic benefits to the country. Consumption of bread and other confectionaries has been on the rise due to lifestyle changes of Nigerian consumers. However, wheat, being the major ingredient for bread and confectionery production does not thrive well under Nigerian climate hence the huge spending on wheat importation. To reduce spending on wheat importation, the Federal Government of Nigeria intends passing into law mandatory inclusion of 20% high-quality cassava flour (HQCF) in wheat flour. While the proposed policy may reduce post harvest loss of cassava, and also increase food security and domestic agricultural productivity, there are downsides to the policy which include reduction in nutritional quality and low sensory appeal of cassava-wheat bread, reluctance of flour millers to use HQCF, technology and processing challenges among others. The policy thus presents an ethical dilemma which must be resolved for its successful implementation. While inclusion of HQCF to wheat flour in bread and confectionery is a topic that may have been well addressed, resolving the ethical dilemma resulting from the act has not received much attention. This paper attempts to resolve this dilemma using various approaches in food ethics (cost benefits, utilitarianism, deontological and deliberative). The Cost-benefit approach did not provide adequate resolution of the dilemma as all the costs and benefits of the policy could not be stated in the quantitative term. The utilitarianism approach suggests that the policy delivers greatest good to the greatest number while the deontological approach suggests that the act (inclusion of HQCF to wheat flour) is right hence the policy is not utterly wrong. The deliberative approach suggests a win-win situation through deliberation with the parties involved.

Keywords: HQCF, ethical dilemma, food security, composite flour, cassava bread

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Authors: Rahbar Ali, Nitin Sharma, Dharmendra Singh, R. P. Singh, S. Muralithar, M. Afzal Ansari

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Heavy-ion-induced reactions on intermediate-mass targets are inherently complex, particularly at low energy levels. The study of these nuclear reactions, especially complete and incomplete fusion reactions, is of utmost importance to nuclear physicists. Researchers have demonstrated interest in exploring the mechanisms of nuclear reactions using heavy-ion beams at energies below 10 MeV/nucleon. In this study, the reaction mechanism of ¹⁶O⁷+ projectiles incident on a ¹⁵⁶Gd target at beam energies ranging from 4 to 7 MeV/nucleon was investigated. To gain a comprehensive understanding of the underlying processes, the excitation functions of evaporation residues produced via complete fusion (CF) and/or incomplete fusion (ICF) were measured. The evaporation residues were populated through xn/pxn and αxn/αpxn emission channels. The measured cross-sections of these residues were compared with the predictions of the statistical model codes PACE-4 and EMPIRE. The measured excitation functions of reaction residues populated through xn and pxn channels are in good agreement with the predictions of the statistical model code PACE4 and EMPIRE. This confirms that the production of these residues is solely due to the CF process. However, a significant enhancement was observed in the measured cross-sections of residues populated through α-emitting channels compared to theoretical predictions. This enhancement in the cross sections for α-emitting channels is ascribed to the ICF processes. The fusion cross-section data were also analyzed within the universal fusion function (UFF) and universal reaction function (URF) approach. The observed fusion suppression is primarily attributed to the breakup of the projectile. The ICF contribution in the reaction is dependent on projectile energy, mass asymmetry of the system and deformation of the target.

Keywords: nuclear reactions, above barrier reactions, evaporation residues, universal fusion function

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Authors: Riaz A. Agha, Alexander J. Fowler, Seon-Young Lee, Buket Gundogan, Katharine Whitehurst, Harkiran K. Sagoo, Kyung Jin Lee Jeong, Douglas G. Altman, Dennis P. Orgill

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Introduction: Case Series are an important and common study type. Currently, no guideline exists for reporting case series and there is evidence of key data being missed from such reports. We propose to develop a reporting guideline for case series using a methodologically robust technique. The first step in this process is a systematic review of literature relevant to the reporting deficiencies of case series. Methods: A systematic review of methodological and reporting quality in surgical case series was performed. The electronic search strategy was developed by an information specialist and included MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Methods Register, Science Citation index and Conference Proceedings Citation index, from the start of indexing until 5th November 2014. Independent screening, eligibility assessments and data extraction was performed. Included articles were analyzed for five areas of deficiency: failure to use standardized definitions missing or selective data transparency or incomplete reporting whether alternate study designs were considered. Results: The database searching identified 2,205 records. Through the process of screening and eligibility assessments, 92 articles met inclusion criteria. Frequency of methodological and reporting issues identified was a failure to use standardized definitions (57%), missing or selective data (66%), transparency, or incomplete reporting (70%), whether alternate study designs were considered (11%) and other issues (52%). Conclusion: The methodological and reporting quality of surgical case series needs improvement. Our data shows that clear evidence-based guidelines for the conduct and reporting of a case series may be useful to those planning or conducting them.

Keywords: case series, reporting quality, surgery, systematic review

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Authors: Sumohon Matilal, Neveen Abdelrehim

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The purpose of this study is to examine the way households manage the risks of civil war, using the calculative practices of accounting as a lens. As is the case with other social phenomena, accounting serves as a conduit for attributing values and rationales to crisis and in the process makes it visible and calculable. Our focus, in particular, is on the dialogue facilitated by the numerical logic of accounting between the householder and a crisis scenario, such as civil war. In other words, we seek to study how the risk of war is rationalized through household budgets, income and expenditure statements etc. and how such accounting constructs in turn shape attitudes toward earnings and spending in a wartime economy. The existing literature on war and accounting demonstrates how an accounting logic can have potentially destabilising consequences and how it is used to legitimise war. However, very few scholars have looked at the way accounting constructs are used to internalise the effects of war in an average household and the behavioural consequences that arise from such accounting. Relatedly, scholars studying household accounting have mostly focussed on the links between gender and hierarchy in relation to managing the financial affairs. Few have focused on the role of household accounts in a crisis scenario. This study intends to fill this gap. We draw upon Egypt, a country in the middle of civil war since 2011 for our purpose. We intend to carry out 15-20 semi-structured interviews with middle income households in Cairo that maintain some form of accounts to study the following issues: 1. How do people internalise the risks of civil war? What kind of accounting constructs do they use (this may take the form of simple budgets, income-expenditure notes/statements on a periodic basis, spreadsheets etc.) 2. How has civil war affected household expenditure? Are people spending more/less than before? 3. How has civil war affected household income? Are people finding it difficult/easy to survive on the pre-war income? 4. How is such accounting affecting household behaviour towards earnings and expenditure? Are families prioritising expenditure on necessities alone? Are they refraining from indulging in luxuries? Are family members doing two or three jobs to cope with difficult times? Are families increasingly turning toward borrowing? Is credit available? From whom?

Keywords: risk, accounting, war, crisis

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Authors: Hafsa Kamran, Asma Afreen, Zaheer Ahmed

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Internet addiction, an emerging mental health disorder from last two decades, is manifested by the inability in the controlled use of internet leading to academics, social, physiological and/or psychological difficulties. The present study aimed to assess the levels of internet addiction among university students in Lahore and to explore the effects of internet addiction on their dietary behavior and lifestyle. It was an analytical cross-sectional study. Data was collected from October to December 2016 from students of four universities selected through two-stage sampling method. The numbers of participants were 500 and 13 questionnaires were rejected due to incomplete information. Levels of Internet Addiction (IA) were calculated using Young Internet Addiction Test (YIAT). Data was also collected on students’ demographics, lifestyle factors and dietary behavior using self-reported questionnaire. Data was analyzed using SPSS (version 21). Chi-square test was applied to evaluate the relationship between variables. Results of the study revealed that 10% of the population had severe internet addiction while moderate Internet Addiction was present in 42%. High prevalence was found among males (11% vs. 8%), private sector university students (p = 0.008) and engineering students (p = 0.000). The lifestyle habits of internet addicts were significantly of poorer quality than normal users (p = 0.05). Internet addiction was found associated with lesser physically activity (p = 0.025), had shorter duration of physical activity (p = 0.016), had more disorganized sleep pattern (p = 0.023), had less duration of sleep (p = 0.019), reported being more tired and sleepy in class (p = 0.033) and spending more time on internet as compared to normal users. Severe and moderate internet addicts also found to be more overweight and obese than normal users (p = 0.000). The dietary behavior of internet addicts was significantly poorer than normal users. Internet addicts were found to skip breakfast more than a normal user (p = 0.039). Common reasons for meal skipping were lack of time and snacking between meals (p = 0.000). They also had increased meal size (p = 0.05) and habit of snacking while using the internet (p = 0.027). Fast food (p = 0.016) and fried items (p = 0.05) were most consumed snacks, while carbonated beverages (p = 0.019) were most consumed beverages among internet addicts. Internet Addicts were found to consume less than recommended daily servings of dairy (p = 0.008) and fruits (p = 0.000) and more servings of meat group (p = 0.025) than their no internet addict counterparts. In conclusion, in this study, it was demonstrated that internet addicts have unhealthy dietary behavior and inappropriate lifestyle habits. University students should be educated regarding the importance of balanced diet and healthy lifestyle, which are critical for effectual primary prevention of numerous chronic degenerative diseases. Furthermore, it is necessary to raise awareness concerning adverse effects of internet addiction among youth and their parents.

Keywords: dietary behavior, internet addiction, lifestyle, university students

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Authors: T. A. Faria, C. C. Toniolo, L. F. Ribeiro

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In order to satisfy the costumer’s needs, many sectors of industry and services has been spending major effort to make its processes more efficient. Facing a situation, when its production cannot cover the demand, the traditional way to achieve the production required involves, mostly, adding shifts, workforce, or even more machines. This paper narrates how lean manufacturing supported a dramatic increase of productivity at a rail welding plant in Brazil in order to meet the demand for the next years.

Keywords: productivity, lean manufacturing, rail welding, value stream mapping

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Authors: Amy Gooden

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When human genomic data is considered, this is often done through only one dimension of the law, or the interplay between the various dimensions is not considered, thus providing an incomplete picture of the legal framework. This research considers and analyzes the various dimensions in South African law applicable to genomic sequence data – including property rights, personality rights, and intellectual property rights. The effective use of personal genomic sequence data requires the acknowledgement and harmonization of the rights applicable to such data.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, data, law, genomics, rights

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Authors: Amadou Wurry Jallow, Adama N. S. Bah, Karamo Bah, Shih-Ye Wang, Kuo-Chung Chu, Chien-Yeh Hsu

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Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major public health challenge with high prevalence, rising incidence, and serious adverse consequences. Developing effective risk prediction models is a cost-effective approach to predicting and preventing complications of chronic kidney disease (CKD). This study aimed to develop an accurate machine learning model that can dynamically identify individuals at risk of CKD using various kinds of diagnostic data, with or without laboratory data, at different follow-up points. Creatinine is a key component used to predict CKD. These models will enable affordable and effective screening for CKD even with incomplete patient data, such as the absence of creatinine testing. This retrospective cohort study included data on 19,429 adults provided by a private research institute and screening laboratory in Taiwan, gathered between 2001 and 2015. Univariate Cox proportional hazard regression analyses were performed to determine the variables with high prognostic values for predicting CKD. We then identified interacting variables and grouped them according to diagnostic data categories. Our models used three types of data gathered at three points in time: non-laboratory, laboratory, and metabolic indices data. Next, we used subgroups of variables within each category to train two machine learning models (Random Forest and XGBoost). Our machine learning models can dynamically discriminate individuals at risk for developing CKD. All the models performed well using all three kinds of data, with or without laboratory data. Using only non-laboratory-based data (such as age, sex, body mass index (BMI), and waist circumference), both models predict chronic kidney disease as accurately as models using laboratory and metabolic indices data. Our machine learning models have demonstrated the use of different categories of diagnostic data for CKD prediction, with or without laboratory data. The machine learning models are simple to use and flexible because they work even with incomplete data and can be applied in any clinical setting, including settings where laboratory data is difficult to obtain.

Keywords: chronic kidney disease, glomerular filtration rate, creatinine, novel metabolic indices, machine learning, risk prediction

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Authors: Carlos Fontanillas

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Brazil is going through a real revolution in the logistics area. It is increasingly common to find articles and news in this context, as companies begin to become aware that a good management of the areas that make up the logistics can bring excellent results in reducing costs and increasing productivity. With this, companies are investing more emphasis on reduced spending on storage and transport of their products to ensure competitiveness. The scope of this work is the analysis of the logistics of a restaurant and materials will be presented the best way to serve the customer, avoiding the interruption of production due to lack of materials; for it will be analyzed the supply chain in terms of acquisition costs, maintenance and service demand.

Keywords: ABC curve, logistic, productivity, supply chain

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Authors: El Mahdi Barrah, Said Safi, Abdessamad Malaoui

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In this paper, we present an algorithm for reconstruction from incomplete 2D scans for tifinagh characters. This algorithm is based on using correlation between the lost block and its neighbors. This system proposed contains three main parts: pre-processing, features extraction and recognition. In the first step, we construct a database of tifinagh characters. In the second step, we will apply “shape analysis algorithm”. In classification part, we will use Neural Network. The simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method give good results.

Keywords: Tifinagh character recognition, neural networks, local cost computation, ANN

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Authors: Remzi Saltoglu, Nazmia Humaira, Gokhan Inalhan

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During aircraft maintenance scheduling, operator calculates the budget of the maintenance. Usually, this calculation includes only the costs that are directly related to the maintenance process such as cost of labor, material, and equipment. In some cases, overhead cost is also included. However, in some of those, downtime cost is neglected claiming that grounding is a natural fact of maintenance; therefore, it is not considered as part of the analytical decision-making process. Based on the normalized data, we introduce downtime cost with its monetary value and add its seasonal character. We envision that the rest of the model, which works together with the downtime cost, could be checked with the real life cases, through the review of MRO cost and airline spending in the particular and scheduled maintenance events.

Keywords: aircraft maintenance, downtime, downtime cost, maintenance cost

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Authors: Jularat Chumnaul

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In forensic science, corpses from various homicides are different; there are both complete and incomplete, depending on causes of death or forms of homicide. For example, some corpses are cut into pieces, some are camouflaged by dumping into the river, some are buried, some are burned to destroy the evidence, and others. If the corpses are incomplete, it can lead to the difficulty of personally identifying because some tissues and bones are destroyed. To specify gender of the corpses from skeletal remains, the most precise method is DNA identification. However, this method is costly and takes longer so that other identification techniques are used instead. The first technique that is widely used is considering the features of bones. In general, an evidence from the corpses such as some pieces of bones, especially the skull and pelvis can be used to identify their gender. To use this technique, forensic scientists are required observation skills in order to classify the difference between male and female bones. Although this technique is uncomplicated, saving time and cost, and the forensic scientists can fairly accurately determine gender by using this technique (apparently an accuracy rate of 90% or more), the crucial disadvantage is there are only some positions of skeleton that can be used to specify gender such as supraorbital ridge, nuchal crest, temporal lobe, mandible, and chin. Therefore, the skeletal remains that will be used have to be complete. The other technique that is widely used for gender specifying in forensic science and archeology is skeletal measurements. The advantage of this method is it can be used in several positions in one piece of bones, and it can be used even if the bones are not complete. In this study, the classification and cluster analysis are applied to this technique, including the Kth Nearest Neighbor Classification, Classification Tree, Ward Linkage Cluster, K-mean Cluster, and Two Step Cluster. The data contains 507 particular individuals and 9 skeletal measurements (diameter measurements), and the performance of five methods are investigated by considering the apparent error rate (APER). The results from this study indicate that the Two Step Cluster and Kth Nearest Neighbor method seem to be suitable to specify gender from human skeletal remains because both yield small apparent error rate of 0.20% and 4.14%, respectively. On the other hand, the Classification Tree, Ward Linkage Cluster, and K-mean Cluster method are not appropriate since they yield large apparent error rate of 10.65%, 10.65%, and 16.37%, respectively. However, there are other ways to evaluate the performance of classification such as an estimate of the error rate using the holdout procedure or misclassification costs, and the difference methods can make the different conclusions.

Keywords: skeletal measurements, classification, cluster, apparent error rate

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Authors: Felipe Villegas-Velasquez, Harold Pantoja-Villota, Sergio Holguin-Cardona, Alejandro Osorio-Botero, Brayan Candamil-Arango

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Colombian electricity comes mainly from hydric resources, affected by environmental variations such as the El Niño phenomenon. That is why incorporating other types of resources is necessary to provide electricity constantly. This research seeks to fill the wind speed and global solar irradiance dataset for two years with the highest amount of information. A further result is the characterization of the data by region that led to infer which errors occurred and offered the incomplete dataset.

Keywords: energy, wind speed, global solar irradiance, Colombia, imputation

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Authors: Rachel Tambyah, Katarzyna Olcoń, Julaine Allan, Pete Destry, Thomas Astell-Burt

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The rising social and financial burden of mental illness indicates an urgent need to explore interventions that can be used as well as or instead of traditional treatments. Although there is growing evidence of the positive mental health outcomes of spending time in nature, the implementation of nature-based interventions (NBIs) within mental health services remains minimal. Based on interviews with mental health clinicians in Australia, this study demonstrated that clinicians supported the use of NBIs and would promote them to their clients.

Keywords: nature, nature-based interventions, mental health, mental health services, mental health clinicians

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Authors: Abdelhalem Shahen

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The world is now experiencing a digital revolution and greatly accelerated technological developments, in addition to the transition from the economy in its traditional form to the digital economy, which has resulted in the emergence of new tools that are appropriate to those developments, and from this, this paper attempts to explore the economic characteristics of the bitcoin currency that circulated recently. Due to the many advantages that distinguish it from money in its traditional forms, which have a range of economic effects. The study found that Bitcoin is among the technological innovations, which contain a set of characteristics that are worth studying, those that make it the focus of attention, such as the digital currency, the peer-to-peer property, Lower and Faster Transaction Costs, transparency, decentralized control, privacy, and Double-Spending, as well as security and Cryptographic, and finally mining.

Keywords: Digital Economics, Digital Currencies, Bitcoin, Features of Bitcoin

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Authors: Sevim Ugur, Cemile Kutmec Yilmaz, Omer Us, Sevdenur Koksaldi

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Aim: This study aims to investigate the effect of digital game playing and Internet addiction on perceived stress levels in university students. Method: The descriptive study was conducted through face-to-face interview method with a total of 364 university students studying at Aksaray University between November 15 and December 30, 2017. The research data were collected using personal information form, a questionnaire to determine the characteristics of playing digital game, the Internet addiction scale and the perceived stress scale. In the evaluation of the data, Mann-Whitney U test was used for two-group comparison of the sample with non-normal distribution, Kruskal-Wallis H-test was used in the comparison of more than two groups, and the Spearman correlation test was used to determine the relationship between Internet addiction and the perceived stress level. Results: It was determined that the mean age of the students participated in the study was 20.13 ± 1.7 years, 67.6% was female, 35.7% was sophomore, and 62.1% had an income 500 TL or less. It was found that 83.5% of the students use the Internet every day and 70.6% uses the Internet for 5 hours or less per day. Of the students, 12.4% prefers digital games instead of spending time outdoors, 8% plays a game as the first activity in leisure time, 12.4% plays all day, 15.7% feels anger when he/she is prevented from playing, 14.8% prefers playing games to get away from his/her problems, 23.4% had his/her school achievement affected negatively because of game playing, and 8% argues with family members due to the time spent for gaming. Students who play games on the computer for a long time were found to feel back pain (30.8%), headache (28.6%), insomnia (26.9%), dryness and pain in the eyes (26.6%), pain in the wrist (21.2%), feeling excessive tension and anger (16.2%), humpback (12.9), vision loss (9.6%) and pain in the wrist and fingers (7.4%). In our study, students' Internet addiction scale mean score was found to be 45.47 ± 16.1 and mean perceived stress scale score was 28.56 ± 2.7. A significant and negative correlation (p=0.037) was found between the total score of the Internet addiction scale and the total score of the perceived stress scale (r=-0.110). Conclusion: It was found in the study that Internet addiction and perceived stress of the students were at a moderate level and that there was a negative correlation between Internet addiction and perceived stress levels. Internet addiction was found to increase with the increasing perceived stress levels of students, and students were found to have health problems such as back pain, dryness in the eyes, pain, insomnia, headache, and humpback. Therefore, it is recommended to inform students about different coping methods other than spending time on the Internet to cope with the stress they perceive.

Keywords: digital game, internet addiction, student, stress level

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Authors: Hazem M. Al-Mofleh

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In this paper, a new four-parameter univariate continuous distribution called the Normal-Generalized Hyperbolic Secant Distribution (NGHS) is defined and studied. Some general and structural distributional properties are investigated and discussed, including: central and non-central n-th moments and incomplete moments, quantile and generating functions, hazard function, Rényi and Shannon entropies, shapes: skewed right, skewed left, and symmetric, modality regions: unimodal and bimodal, maximum likelihood (MLE) estimators for the parameters. Finally, two real data sets are used to demonstrate empirically its flexibility and prove the strength of the new distribution.

Keywords: bimodality, estimation, hazard function, moments, Shannon’s entropy

Procedia PDF Downloads 351

Authors: H. M. Nanjundaswamy, S. K. Nath, S. Ray

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TiO₂ particles have been added in molten aluminium to result in aluminium based cast Al/Al₃Ti-Al₂O₃ composite, which has been added then to molten magnesium to synthesize magnesium based cast Mg-Al/Al₃Ti-Al₂O₃ composite. The nominal compositions in terms of Mg, Al, and TiO₂ contents in the magnesium based composites are Mg-9Al-0.6TiO₂, Mg-9Al-0.8TiO₂, Mg-9Al-1.0TiO₂ and Mg-9Al-1.2TiO₂ designated respectively as MA6T, MA8T, MA10T and MA12T. The microstructure of the cast magnesium based composite shows grayish rods of intermetallics Al₃Ti, inherited from aluminium based composite but these rods, on hot forging, breaks into smaller lengths decreasing the average aspect ratio (length to diameter) from 7.5 to 3.0. There are also cavities in between the broken segments of rods. β-phase in cast microstructure, Mg₁₇Al₁₂, dissolves during heating prior to forging and re-precipitates as relatively finer particles on cooling. The amount of β-phase also decreases on forging as segregation is removed. In both the cast and forged composite, the Brinell hardness increases rapidly with increasing addition of TiO₂ but the hardness is higher in forged composites by about 80 BHN. With addition of higher level of TiO₂ in magnesium based cast composite, yield strength decreases progressively but there is marginal increase in yield strength over that of the cast Mg-9 wt. pct. Al, designated as MA alloy. But the ultimate tensile strength (UTS) in the cast composites decreases with the increasing particle content indicating possibly an early initiation of crack in the brittle inter-dendritic region and their easy propagation through the interfaces of the particles. In forged composites, there is a significant improvement in both yield strength and UTS with increasing TiO₂ addition and also, over those observed in their cast counterpart, but at higher addition it decreases. It may also be noted that as in forged MA alloy, incomplete recovery of forging strain increases the strength of the matrix in the composites and the ductility decreases both in the forged alloy and the composites. Initiation fracture toughness, J_IC, decreases drastically in cast composites compared to that in MA alloy due to the presence of intermetallic Al₃Ti and Al₂O₃ particles in the composite. There is drastic reduction of J_IC on forging both in the alloy and the composites, possibly due to incomplete recovery of forging strain in both as well as breaking of Al₃Ti rods and the voids between the broken segments of Al₃Ti rods in composites. The ratio of tearing modulus to elastic modulus in cast composites show higher ratio, which increases with the increasing TiO₂ addition. The ratio decreases comparatively more on forging of cast MA alloy than those in forged composites.

Keywords: composite, fracture toughness, forging, tensile properties

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Authors: Luyao Liu, Dekui Yuan, Xu Li

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As one of the most important bays of China, the water exchange capacity of Bohai Bay can influence the economic development and urbanization of surrounding cities. However, the rapid reclamation has influenced the weak water exchange capacity of this semi-enclosed bay in recent years. This paper sets two hydrodynamic models of Bohai Bay with two shorelines before and after reclamation. The mean value and distribution of Turn-over Time, the distribution of residual current, and the feature of the tracer path are compared. After comparison, it is found that Bohai Bay keeps these characteristics; the spending time of water exchange in the northern is longer than southern, and inshore is longer than offshore. However, the mean water exchange time becomes longer after reclamation. In addition, the material spreading is blocked because of the inwardly extending shorelines, and the direction changed from along the shoreline to towards the center after reclamation.

Keywords: Bohai Bay, water exchange, reclamation, turn-over time

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Authors: Sivilai Jayankura

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This research aims to study the religious economic behavior that effect the lifestyle of the people in Dusit area. The result shows that religious identity salience makes people increase contributions to public goods. Most of the Buddhism decrease contributions to public goods, expect others to contribute less to public goods, and become less risk averse. We find no evidence of religious identity salience effects on disutility of work effort, discount rates or generosity in life spending. Mostly the people like to make merit in the temple during special day of religion. The atmosphere in the temple leads the people like to travel and merit at the temple near their home.

Keywords: Dusit province, identity, lifestyle, religious economic behavior

Procedia PDF Downloads 329