Search results for: focusing events

Authors: Vahid Borji

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The interaction between photons and particles is a common phenomenon in nature that is discussed in order to obtain information about the environment and the conditions governing the phenomena. In the astrophysics, like others, we study these interactions to get useful knowledge and can be predict aftercoming events. One of the events is the transition of photon beam through medium with special conditions, like shocked medium. In our discussion, we have studied this situation and obtained results for different conditions that transition of photon depends on the energy of photon and distributions of electrons in medium.

Keywords: cross section, astrophysics, GRB, photon

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Authors: I. V. Kuzminov

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The research is dedicated to the issue of Bosporus evolution and its key role in the Black Sea forming. Up till nowadays, there is no distinct picture of the historical and geographical events of the last 10 thousand years on the territory from Altai up to the Alps. The present article is an attempt to clarify and, moreover, link the presented version to the historical and climatic events of this period. The paper is a development of the basic idea stated in "Hypothesis on the Black Sea origin". The succession of events in dynamics is offered in this article. In the article, it is shown that fluctuation of the level of the World Ocean is a mirror of the basic events connected with the climate on the Earth on the one hand and hydraulic processes on the other hand. In the present article, it is come out with the assumption that at the formation of passage, there were some cycles of change in a level of the World ocean. The phase of the beginning of climate warming is characterized by an increase in the level of inland water bodies on the way of meltwater runoff and an increase in the World ocean level. The end of the warming phase is characterized by the continuation of a rise in the level of the World ocean and the drying up of inland water bodies deprived of meltwater replenishment.

Keywords: Bosporus, Ryan-Pitman hypothesis, fluctuations of the World Ocean level, the Paratethys Sea, catastrophic breakthrough

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Authors: Noratiqah Mohd Ariff, Abdul Aziz Jemain, Mohd Aftar Abu Bakar

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The construction of Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves is one of the most common and useful tools in order to design hydraulic structures and to provide a mathematical relationship between rainfall characteristics. IDF curves, especially those in Peninsular Malaysia, are often built using moving windows of rainfalls. However, these windows do not represent the actual rainfall events since the duration of rainfalls is usually prefixed. Hence, instead of using moving windows, this study aims to find regionalized distributions for IDF curves of extreme rainfalls based on storm events. Homogeneity test is performed on annual maximum of storm intensities to identify homogeneous regions of storms in Peninsular Malaysia. The L-moment method is then used to regionalized Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution of these annual maximums and subsequently. IDF curves are constructed using the regional distributions. The differences between the IDF curves obtained and IDF curves found using at-site GEV distributions are observed through the computation of the coefficient of variation of root mean square error, mean percentage difference and the coefficient of determination. The small differences implied that the construction of IDF curves could be simplified by finding a general probability distribution of each region. This will also help in constructing IDF curves for sites with no rainfall station.

Keywords: IDF curves, L-moments, regionalization, storm events

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Authors: Jasmin H. Kwon , Thomas M. Brinthaupt

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There is a general lack of consumer behavior research on seasonal shopping events. Studying these kinds of events is interesting and important for several reasons. First, global shopping opportunities have implications for cross-cultural shopping events and effects on seasonal events in other countries. Second, seasonal shopping events are subject to economic conditions and may wane in popularity, especially with e-commerce options. Third, retailers can expand the success of their seasonal shopping events by taking advantage of cross-cultural opportunities. Fourth, it is interesting to consider how consumers from other countries might take advantage of different countries’ seasonal shopping events. Many countries have seasonal shopping events such as Black Friday. Research on these kinds of events can lead to the identification of cross-cultural similarities and differences in consumer behavior. We compared shopping motivations of college students who did (n=36) and did not (n=81) shop on Cyber Monday. The results showed that the groups did not differ significantly on any of the shopping motivation subscales. The Cyber Monday shoppers reported being significantly more likely to agree than disagree that their online shopping experience was enjoyable and exciting. They were more likely to disagree than agree that their experience was overwhelming. In addition, they agreed that they shopped only for deals, purchased the exact items they wanted, and thought that their efforts were worth it. Finally, they intended to shop again at next year’s Cyber Monday. It appears that there are many positive aspects to online seasonal shopping, independent of one’s typical shopping motivations. Different countries have seasonal events similar to the Black Friday and Cyber Monday shopping holiday (e.g., Boxing Day, Fukubukuro, China’s Singles Day). In Korea, there is increasing interest in taking advantage of U.S. Black Friday and Cyber Monday opportunities. Government officials are interested in adapting the U.S. holiday to Korean retailers, essentially recreating the Black Friday/Cyber Monday holiday there. Similarly, the Japanese Fukubukuro ('Lucky Bag') holiday is being adapted by other countries such as Korea and the U.S. International shipping support companies are also emerging that help customers to identify and receive products from other countries. U.S. department stores also provide free shipping on international orders for certain items. As these structural changes are occurring and new options for global shopping emerge, the need to understand the role of shoppers’ motivations becomes even more important. For example, the Cyber Monday results are particularly relevant to the new landscape with e-commerce and cross-cultural opportunities, since many of these events involve e-commerce. Within today’s global market, physical location of a retail store is no longer a limitation to growing one’s market share. From a consumer perspective, it is important to investigate how shopping motivations are related to e-commerce seasonal events. From a retail perspective, understanding the shopping motivations of international customers would help retailers to expand and better tailor their seasonal shopping events beyond the boundaries of their own countries. From a collaborative perspective, research on this topic can include interdisciplinary researchers, including those from fashion merchandising, marketing, retailing, and psychology.

Keywords: Black Friday, cross-cultural research, Cyber Monday, seasonal shopping behavior

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Authors: Khadeeja Munawar, Shamsul Haque

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We examined the plausibility of transition theory suggesting that memories of transitional events, which give rise to a significant and persistent change in the fabric of daily life, are organized around the historically defined autobiographical periods (H-DAPs). 141 Pakistani older adults retrieved 10 autobiographical memories (AMs) each to 10 cue words. As the history of Pakistan is dominated by various political and nationwide transitional events, it was expected that the participants would recall memories with H-DAPs references. The content analysis revealed that 0.7% of memories had H-DAP references and 0.4% memories mentioned major transitional events such as War/Natural Disaster. There was a vivid reminiscence bump between 10 - 20 years of age in lifespan distribution of AMs. There were 67.9% social-focused AMs. Significantly more self-focused memories were reported by individuals who endorsed themselves as conservatives. Only a few H-DAPs were reported, although the history of Pakistan was dominated by numerous political, historical and nationwide transitional events. Memories within and outside of the bump period were mostly positive. The participants rarely used historical/political or nationwide significant events or periods to date the memories elicited. The intense and nationwide (as well as region-wise) significant historical/political events spawned across decades in the lives of participants of the present study but these events did not produce H-DAPs. The findings contradicted the previous studies on H-DAPs and transition theory. The dominance of social-focused AMs in the present study is in line with the past studies comparing the memories of collectivist and individualist cultures (i.e., European Americans vs. Asian, African and Latin-American cultures). The past empirical evidence shows that conservative values and beliefs are adopted as a coping strategy to feel secure in the face of danger when future is dominated with uncertainty and to connect to likeminded others. In the present study, conservative political ideology is somehow assisting the participants in living a stable life midst of their complex social worlds. The reminiscence bump, as well as dominance of positive memories within and outside the bump period, are in line with the narrative/identity account which states that the events and experiences during adolescence and early adulthood assimilate into a person’s lifelong narratives. Hence these events are used as identity markers and are more easily recalled later in life. Also, according to socioemotional theory and the positivity effect, the participants evaluated past events more positively as they grow up and the intensity of negative emotions decreased with time.

Keywords: autobiographical memory, historically defined autobiographical periods, narrative/identity account, Pakistan, reminiscence bump, SMS framework, transition theory

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Authors: Ben D. Atkins

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This study will examine the impact of September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the organizational development of American federal law enforcement through focusing on the Federal Bureau of Investigation. Content analysis of discourse in a federal law enforcement practitioner publication along with official FBI statements will be used to gain a better understanding of FBI organizational changes that have taken place since the events of September 11, 2001. Analysis of content trends in the FBI Law Enforcement Bulletin and public discourse of FBI officials from 1999 to 2005 indicate that, in addition to structural changes, the bureau has also undergone a variety of cultural changes. The results offer some support for the institutional theoretical perspective, suggesting that post-9/11 organizational changes such as new mission priorities and the establishment of new branches were partially initiated due to a variety external pressures, which lends support for coercive isomorphism. Furthermore, structural changes are discussed in relation to the attainment and maintenance of organizational legitimacy.

Keywords: institutional theory, organizational theory, law enforcement, public administration

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Authors: Milica Lazic, Jovana Jestrovic

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The aim of this research is to examine moderating role of positive and negative affect, defined as traits, in relationship between a number of stressful life events to which an individual is exposed and life satisfaction. The tendency to experience positive and negative emotions is considered as relatively independent, and life satisfaction depends on presence and intensity of emotions of different valence. However, the role of positive and negative affect can be much more complex. It can change the direction and/or intensity of correlation between a number of stressful life events and life satisfaction. Thus, this question is important for two reasons, (I) better comprehension of inconsistent result of correlation intensity between stressful events and life satisfaction (II) verification on what conditions positive and negative affect have a protective role, and on what conditions the positive and/or negative affect is vulnerability factor. Longitudinal data were collected in two waves from 660 adolescents. Firstly, participants completed the Positive and Negative Affect Schedule. A year later, Life events questionnaire, which measures the number of stressful events in the past six months and Satisfaction with Life Scale were administered. The data were analyzed using hierarchical regression analyses: three-way interaction. The results show that number of life events, positive and negative effect contribute to the level of life satisfaction. The check of moderation role shows the significant three-way interaction of number of life event, and both, positive and negative affect. Individuals who report high level of positive affect, estimate to be moderate to highly satisfied with their lives, regardless of number of stressors to which they are exposed and also how often they experience negative emotions. Individuals, who often experience negative emotions and rarely positive, report the lowest level of life satisfaction. It doesn't change despite the number of stressors they were exposed to. Individuals who report that rarely experience not only positive than also negative emotions estimate different level of life satisfaction depending on number of stressors they were exposed to. Under the influence of numerous stressors, their level of life satisfaction is low, and it's equal to life satisfaction level of individuals who often experience negative and rarely positive emotions. The result of this research shows that tendency to often experience positive emotions is the protective factor in situation when individuals are exposed to high number of stressors. On the other hand, tendency to rarely experience positive emotions present vulnerability factor. Conclusions and practical implications are further discussed.

Keywords: life events, life satisfaction, subjective well-being, positive and negative affect

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Authors: Wesam Mohamed Abdel Khalek Ibrahim

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This paper examines the use of metaphors in Arabic political news discourse, focusing particularly on the headlines of the news articles relating to the Egyptian political situation in the period from June 2012 to October 2013. Metaphors are skilfully manipulated in the headlines to influence the public stance towards several events and entities including Egypt, Muslim Brotherhood (MB), Morsi, the June 30th uprising, Al-Sisi and the Armed Forces. The findings reveal that Arabic political news discourse shares basic features with its English counterpart, namely the use of metaphors as persuasive strategies and the presence of certain target domains. Insights gained from this study feed back into the conceptual metaphor theory by providing further evidence to the universality of metaphors.

Keywords: conceptual metaphor theory, political discourse, news discourse, Egyptian political situation

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Authors: Van Trieu, Shouhuai Xu, Yusheng Feng

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Tracking attack trajectories can be difficult, with limited information about the nature of the attack. Even more difficult as attack information is collected by Intrusion Detection Systems (IDSs) due to the current IDSs having some limitations in identifying malicious and anomalous traffic. Moreover, IDSs only point out the suspicious events but do not show how the events relate to each other or which event possibly cause the other event to happen. Because of this, it is important to investigate new methods capable of performing the tracking of attack trajectories task quickly with less attack information and dependency on IDSs, in order to prioritize actions during incident responses. This paper proposes a two-level graph causality framework for tracking attack trajectories in internet networks by leveraging observable malicious behaviors to detect what is the most probable attack events that can cause another event to occur in the system. Technically, given the time series of malicious events, the framework extracts events with useful features, such as attack time and port number, to apply to the conditional independent tests to detect the relationship between attack events. Using the academic datasets collected by IDSs, experimental results show that the framework can quickly detect the causal pairs that offer meaningful insights into the nature of the internet network, given only reasonable restrictions on network size and structure. Without the framework’s guidance, these insights would not be able to discover by the existing tools, such as IDSs. It would cost expert human analysts a significant time if possible. The computational results from the proposed two-level graph network model reveal the obvious pattern and trends. In fact, more than 85% of causal pairs have the average time difference between the causal and effect events in both computed and observed data within 5 minutes. This result can be used as a preventive measure against future attacks. Although the forecast may be short, from 0.24 seconds to 5 minutes, it is long enough to be used to design a prevention protocol to block those attacks.

Keywords: causality, multilevel graph, cyber-attacks, prediction

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Authors: Kumud Singh, Janvin Itteera, Priti Ukarde, Sanjay Malhotra, P. PMarathe, Ayan Bandyopadhay, Rakesh Meena, Vikram Rawat, L. M. Joshi

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Application of Permanent magnet technology to high frequency miniature klystron tubes to be utilized for space applications improves the efficiency and operational reliability of these tubes. But nevertheless the task of generating magnetic focusing forces to eliminate beam divergence once the beam crosses the electrostatic focusing regime and enters the drift region in the RF section of the tube throws several challenges. Building a high quality magnet focusing lens to meet beam optics requirement in cathode gun and RF interaction region is considered to be one of the critical issues for these high frequency miniature tubes. In this paper, electromagnetic design and particle trajectory studies in combined electric and magnetic field for optimizing the magnetic circuit using 3D finite element method (FEM) analysis software is presented. A rectangular configuration of the magnet was constructed to accommodate apertures for input and output waveguide sections and facilitate coupling of electromagnetic fields into the input klystron cavity and out from output klystron cavity through coupling loops. Prototype lenses have been built and have been tested after integration with the klystron tube. We discuss the design requirements and challenges, and the results from beam transmission of the prototype lens.

Keywords: beam transmission, Brillouin, confined flow, miniature klystron

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Authors: Elham Sharifineyestani, Mohammad Farshchin

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Tropical cyclones are one of the most expensive and deadliest natural disasters. They cause heavy rainfall and serious flash flooding that result in billions of dollars of damage and considerable mortality each year in the United States. Prediction of the frequency of tropical cyclone-induced rainfall events can be helpful in emergency planning and flood risk management. In this study, we have developed a machine-learning model to predict the exceedance frequencies of tropical cyclone-induced rainfall events in the United States. Model results show a satisfactory agreement with available observations. To examine the effectiveness of our approach, we also have compared the result of our predictions with the exceedance frequencies predicted using a physics-based rainfall model by Feldmann.

Keywords: flash flooding, tropical cyclones, frequencies, machine learning, risk management

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Authors: Marie E. Docken

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At some point in the lifecycle of a country, patterns of political and social unrest of varying degrees are observed. Events involving public disorder or civil disobedience may produce effects that range a wide spectrum of varying outcomes, depending on the level of unrest. Many previous studies, primarily theoretical in nature, have attempted to measure public disorder in answering why or how it occurs in society by examining causal factors or underlying issues in the social or political position of a population. The main objective in doing so is to understand how these activities evolve or seek some predictive capability for the events. In contrast, this research involves the fusion of analytics and social studies to provide more knowledge of the public disorder and civil disobedience intensity in populations. With a greater understanding of the magnitude of these events, it is believed that we may learn how they relate to extreme actions such as mass migration or violence. Upon establishing a model for measuring civil unrest based upon empirical data, a case study on various Latin American countries is performed. Interpretations of historical events are combined with analytical results to provide insights regarding the magnitude and effect of social and political activism.

Keywords: public disorder, civil disobedience, Latin America, metrics, data analysis

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Authors: Eric Muñoz de la Torre, Julián González Trinidad, Efrén González Ramírez

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Rain varies greatly in its duration, intensity, and spatial coverage, it is important to have sub-daily rainfall data for various applications, including risk prevention. However, the ground measurements are limited by the low and irregular density of rain gauges. An alternative to this problem are the Satellite Precipitation Products (SPPs) that use passive microwave and infrared sensors to estimate rainfall, as IMERG, however, these SPPs have to be validated before their application. The aim of this study is to evaluate the performance of the IMERG: Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for Global Precipitation Measurament final run V06B SPP in a semi-arid region of Mexico, using 4 automatic rain gauges (pluviographs) sub-daily data of October 2019 and June to September 2021, using the Minimum inter-event Time (MIT) criterion to separate unique rain events with a dry period of 10 hrs. for the purpose of evaluating the rainfall properties (depth, duration and intensity). Point to pixel analysis, continuous, categorical, and volumetric statistical metrics were used. Results show that IMERG is capable to estimate the rainfall depth with a slight overestimation but is unable to identify the real duration and intensity of the rain events, showing large overestimations and underestimations, respectively. The study zone presented 80 to 85 % of convective rain events, the rest were stratiform rain events, classified by the depth magnitude variation of IMERG pixels and pluviographs. IMERG showed poorer performance at detecting the first ones but had a good performance at estimating stratiform rain events that are originated by Cold Fronts.

Keywords: IMERG, rainfall, rain gauge, remote sensing, statistical evaluation

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Authors: Aniket Alam, Sravya Gurram

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This paper proposes a categorization of sport that is based on the system of rules that a sport must adhere to. We focus on these systems of rules to examine how a winner is produced in different sports. The rules of a sport dictate the game play and the direction it takes. We propose to break down the game play into events. At this junction, we observe two kinds of events that constitute the game play of a sport –ones that follow sequential logic and ones that do not. Our focus is pertained to sports that are comprised of sequential events. To examine these events further, to understand how a winner emerges, we take the help of finite-state automaton from the theory of computation (Automata theory). We showcase how sequential sports are eligible to be represented as finite state machines. We depict these finite state machines as state diagrams. We examine these state diagrams to observe how a team/player reaches the final states of the sport, with a special focus on one final state –the final state which determines the winner. This exercise has been carried out for the following sports: Hurdles, Track, Shot Put, Long Jump, Bowling, Badminton, Pacman and Weightlifting (Snatch). Based on our observations of how this final state of winning is achieved, we propose a categorization of sports.

Keywords: sport classification, sport modelling, ontology, automata theory

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Authors: Imene Skhakhfa, Lahbaci Ouerdachi

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To ensure the overall coherence of simulated results, it is necessary to develop a robust validation process. In many applications, it is no longer content to calibrate and validate the model only in relation to the hydro graph measured at the outlet, but we try to better simulate the functioning of the watershed in space. Therefore the timing also performs compared to other variables such as water level measurements in intermediate stations or groundwater levels. As part of this work, we limit ourselves to modeling flood of short duration for which the process of evapotranspiration is negligible. The main parameters to identify the models are related to the method of unit hydro graph (HU). Three different models were tested: SNYDER, CLARK and SCS. These models differ in their mathematical structure and parameters to be calibrated while hydrological data are the same, the initial water content and precipitation. The models are compared on the basis of their performance in terms six objective criteria, three global criteria and three criteria representing volume, peak flow, and the mean square error. The first type of criteria gives more weight to strong events whereas the second considers all events to be of equal weight. The results show that the calibrated parameter values are dependent and also highlight the problems associated with the simulation of low flow events and intermittent precipitation.

Keywords: model calibration, intensity, runoff, hydrograph

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Authors: Anilkumar L. Rathod

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This paper examines event tourism as a field of study and area of professional practice updating the previous review article published in 2015. In this substantially extended review, a deeper analysis of the field's evolution and development is presented, charting the growth of the literature, focusing both chronologically and thematically. A framework for understanding and creating knowledge about events and tourism is presented, forming the basis which signposts established research themes and concepts and outlines future directions for research. In addition, the review article focuses on constraining and propelling forces, ontological advances, contributions from key journals, and emerging themes and issues. It also presents a roadmap for research activity in event tourism. Published scholarly studies within this period are examined through content analysis, using such keywords as knowledge management, organizational learning, hospitality, tourism, tourist destinations, travel industry, hotels, lodging, motels, hotel industry, gaming, casino hotel and convention to search scholarly research journals. All contributions found are then screened for a hospitality and tourism theme. Researchers mostly discuss knowledge management approach in improving information technology, marketing and strategic planning in order to gain competitive advantage. Overall, knowledge management research is still limited. Planned events in tourism are created for a purpose, and what was once the realm of individual and community initiatives has largely become the realm of professionals and entrepreneurs provides a typology of the four main categories of planned events within an event-tourism context, including the main venues associated with each. It also assesses whether differences exist between socio-demographic groupings. An analysis using primarily descriptive statistics indicated both sub-samples had similar viewpoints although Maharashtra residents tended to have higher scores pertaining to the consequences of gambling. It is suggested that the differences arise due to the greater exposure of Maharashtra residents to the influences of casino development.

Keywords: organizational learning, hospitality, tourism, tourist destinations, travel industry, hotels, lodging, motels, hotel industry, gaming, casino hotel and convention to search scholarly research journals

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Authors: Krzysztof Kontek, Kevin Kenner

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This paper, written by an economist and pianist, aims to compare and analyze different methods of reducing manipulation in classical music competitions by focusing on outlier scores and outlier jurors. We first examine existing methods in competition practice and statistical literature for discarding or correcting jurors' scores that deviate significantly from the mean or median of all scores. We then introduce a method that involves eliminating all scores of outlier jurors, i.e., those jurors whose ratings significantly differ from those of other jurors. The properties of these standard and proposed methods are discussed in hypothetical voting scenarios, where one or more jurors assign scores that deviate considerably from the scores awarded by other jurors. Finally, we present examples of applying various methods to real-world data from piano competitions, demonstrating the potential effectiveness and implications of each approach in reducing manipulation within these events.

Keywords: voting systems, manipulation, outlier scores, outlier jurors

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Authors: Charles Q. Yu, Victoria H. Fan, Ahmed F. Al-Qahtani, Ibraim Viera

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Introduction: Over 12 million people are blind due to opacity of the cornea, the clear tissue forming the front of the eye. Current methods use plastic implants to produce a clear optical pathway into the eye but are limited by a high rate of complications. New implants utilizing completely inside-the-eye projection technology can overcome blindness due to scarring of the eye by producing images on the retina without need for a clear optical pathway into the eye and may be free of the complications of traditional treatments. However, the interior of the eye is a challenging location for the design of optical focusing systems which can produce a sufficiently high quality image. No optical focusing systems have previously been characterized for this purpose. Methods: 3 optical focusing systems for intraocular (inside the eye) projection were designed and then modeled with ray tracing software, including a pinhole system, a planoconvex, and an achromatic system. These were then constructed using off-the-shelf components and tested in the laboratory. Weight, size, magnification, depth of focus, image quality and brightness were characterized. Results: Image quality increased with complexity of system design, as did weight and size. A dual achromatic doublet optical system produced the highest image quality. The visual acuity equivalent achieved with this system was better than 20/200. Its weight was less than that of the natural human crystalline lens. Conclusions: We demonstrate for the first time that high quality images can be produced by optical systems sufficiently small and light to be implanted within the eye.

Keywords: focusing, projection, blindness, cornea , achromatic, pinhole

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Authors: Ye Zhang, Chuanjun Liu

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In-service aircraft is exposed to different types of threaten, e.g. bird strike, ground vehicle impact, and run-way debris, or even lightning strike, etc. To satisfy the aircraft damage tolerance design requirements, the designer has to understand the threatening level for different types of the aircraft structures, either metallic or composite. Exposing to low-velocity impacts may produce very serious internal damages such as delaminations and matrix cracks without leaving visible mark onto the impacted surfaces for composite structures. This internal damage can cause significant reduction in the load carrying capacity of structures. The semi-probabilistic method provides a practical and proper approximation to establish the impact-threat based energy cut-off level for the damage tolerance evaluation of the aircraft components. Thus, the probabilistic distribution of impact threat and the realistic impact energy level cut-offs are the essential establishments required for the certification of aircraft composite structures. A new survey of impact threat to civil aircraft in-service has recently been carried out based on field records concerning around 500 civil aircrafts (mainly single aisles) and more than 4.8 million flight hours. In total 1,006 damages caused by low-velocity impact events had been screened out from more than 8,000 records including impact dents, scratches, corrosions, delaminations, cracks etc. The impact threat dependency on the location of the aircraft structures and structural configuration was analyzed. Although the survey was mainly focusing on the metallic structures, the resulting low-energy impact data are believed likely representative to general civil aircraft, since the service environments and the maintenance operations are independent of the materials of the structures. The probability of impact damage occurrence (Po) and impact energy exceedance (Pe) are the two key parameters for describing the statistic distribution of impact threat. With the impact damage events from the survey, Po can be estimated as 2.1x10-4 per flight hour. Concerning the calculation of Pe, a numerical model was developed using the commercial FEA software ABAQUS to backward estimate the impact energy based on the visible damage characteristics. The relationship between the visible dent depth and impact energy was established and validated by drop-weight impact experiments. Based on survey results, Pe was calculated and assumed having a log-linear relationship versus the impact energy. As the product of two aforementioned probabilities, Po and Pe, it is reasonable and conservative to assume Pa=PoxPe=10-5, which indicates that the low-velocity impact events are similarly likely as the Limit Load events. Combing Pa with two probabilities Po and Pe obtained based on the field survey, the cutoff level of realistic impact energy was estimated and valued as 34 J. In summary, a new survey was recently done on field records of civil aircraft to investigate the probabilistic distribution of impact threat. Based on the data, two probabilities, Po and Pe, were obtained. Considering a conservative assumption of Pa, the cutoff energy level for the realistic impact energy has been determined, which provides potential applicability in damage tolerance certification of future civil aircraft.

Keywords: composite structure, damage tolerance, impact threat, probabilistic

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Authors: Naci Büyükkaracığan, Hasan Uzun

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Flood is the event which damage to the surrounding lands, residential places, infrastructure and vibrant, because of the streams overflow events from its bed for several reasons. Flood is a natural formation which develops due to its region's climatic conditions, technical and topographical characteristics. However, factors causing floods with global warming caused by human activity are events such as uncontrolled urbanization. Floods in Turkey are natural disasters which cause huge economic losses after the earthquake. At the same time, the flood disaster is one of the most observed hydrometeorological disasters, compared to 30%, in Turkey. Every year, there are around 200 flood-flood disasters and the disaster as a result of financial losses of $ 100 million per year are reported to occur in public institutions. The amount allocated for carrying out investment-project activities for reducing and controlling of flood damage control are around US $ 30 million per year. The existence of a linear increase in the number of flood disasters is noteworthy due to various reasons in the last 50 years of observation. In this study, first of all, big events of the flood in Turkey and their reasons were examined. And then, the information about the work to be done in order to prevent flooding by government was given with examples. Meteorological early warning systems, flood risk maps and regulation of urban development studies are described for this purpose. As a result, recommendations regarding in the event of the occurrence of floods disaster management were issues raised.

Keywords: flood, disaster, disaster management, Türkiye

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Authors: Carmen Soria

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The aim of this paper is the study of the cultural and anthropological consequences of the historical natural disasters in Abruzzo (Italy, Central Apennine). These events have left cultural marks in local traditions as well as mythological stories, specific cults, or sanctuary areas in apotropaic function to prevent catastrophic events. Despite the difficult to find archaeological evidence of natural disasters, neverthless, the analisys of micro placenames, directly or indirectly related to such events, represents an integrated and interdisciplinary approach between seismology studies and landscape analysis. Toponymic data, indeed, highlight the strong relation between geomorphological features of areas affected by natural disasters and heritage community resilience, such as, for example, the cult of St. Agatha, widespread in the nearby of healing spring-water and ancient caves as a place of worship, in continuity with pagan rituals.

Keywords: abruzzo, heritage community resilience, seismic planames, St. agata

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Authors: Lyndsey Kim

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We utilized country-level data on suicide rates from 1985 through 2015 provided by the WHO to explore global trends as well as country-specific trends. First, we find that up until 1995, there was an increase in suicide rates globally, followed by a steep decline in deaths. This observation is largely driven by the data from Europe, where suicides are prominent but steadily declining. Second, men are more likely to commit suicide than women across the world over the years. Third, the older generation is more likely to commit suicide than youth and adults. Finally, we turn to Durkheim’s theory and use it as a lens to understand trends in suicide across time and countries and attempt to identify social and economic events that might explain patterns that we observe. For example, we discovered a drastically different pattern in suicide rates in the US, with a steep increase in suicides in the early 2000s. We hypothesize this might be driven by both the 9/11 attacks and the recession of 2008.

Keywords: suicide trends, current events, data analysis, world health organization, durkheim theory

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Authors: Nozar Kishi, Babak Kamrani, Filmon Habte

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Natural hazards such as earthquakes and tropical storms, are very frequent and highly destructive in Japan. Japan experiences, every year on average, more than 10 tropical cyclones that come within damaging reach, and earthquakes of moment magnitude 6 or greater. We have developed stochastic catastrophe models to address the risk associated with the entire suite of damaging events in Japan, for use by insurance, reinsurance, NGOs and governmental institutions. KCC’s (Karen Clark and Company) catastrophe models are procedures constituted of four modular segments: 1) stochastic events sets that would represent the statistics of the past events, hazard attenuation functions that could model the local intensity, vulnerability functions that would address the repair need for local buildings exposed to the hazard, and financial module addressing policy conditions that could estimates the losses incurring as result of. The events module is comprised of events (faults or tracks) with different intensities with corresponding probabilities. They are based on the same statistics as observed through the historical catalog. The hazard module delivers the hazard intensity (ground motion or wind speed) at location of each building. The vulnerability module provides library of damage functions that would relate the hazard intensity to repair need as percentage of the replacement value. The financial module reports the expected loss, given the payoff policies and regulations. We have divided Japan into regions with similar typhoon climatology, and earthquake micro-zones, within each the characteristics of events are similar enough for stochastic modeling. For each region, then, a set of stochastic events is developed that results in events with intensities corresponding to annual occurrence probabilities that are of interest to financial communities; such as 0.01, 0.004, etc. The intensities, corresponding to these probabilities (called CE, Characteristics Events) are selected through a superstratified sampling approach that is based on the primary uncertainty. Region specific hazard intensity attenuation functions followed by vulnerability models leads to estimation of repair costs. Extensive economic exposure model addresses all local construction and occupancy types, such as post-linter Shinand Okabe wood, as well as concrete confined in steel, SRC (Steel-Reinforced Concrete), high-rise.

Keywords: typhoon, earthquake, Japan, catastrophe modelling, stochastic modeling, stratified sampling, loss model, ERM

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Authors: Gökhan Altay, Cafer Kayadelen

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Rock fall is a movement of huge rock blocks from dip slopes due to physical effects. It generally occurs where loose tuffs lying under basalt flow or stringcourse is being constituted by limestone layers which stand on clay. By corrosion of some parts, big cracks occur on layers and these cracks continue to grow with the effect of freezing-thawing. In this way, the breaking rocks fall down from these dip slopes. Earthquakes which can induce lots of rock movements is another reason for rock fall events. In Turkey, we have a large number of regions prone to the earthquake as in the World so this increases the possibility of rock fall events. A great number of rock fall events take place in Turkey as in the World every year. The rock fall events occurring in urban areas cause serious damages in houses, roads and workplaces. Sometimes it also hinders transportation and furthermore it maybe kills people. In Turkey, rock fall events happen mostly in Spring and Winter because of freezing- thawing of water in rock cracks frequently. In mountain and inclined areas, rock fall is risky for engineering construction and environment. Some countries can invest significant money for these risky areas. For instance, in Switzerland, approximately 6.7 million dollars is spent annually for a distance of 4 km, to the systems to prevent rock fall events. In Turkey, we have lots of urban areas and engineering structure that have the rock fall risk. The embankments are preferable for rock fall events because of its low maintenance and repair costs. Also, embankments are able to absorb much more energy according to other protection systems. The current design method of embankments is only depended on field tests results so there are inadequate studies about this design method. In this paper, the field test modeled in three dimensions and analysis are carried out with the help of ANSYS programme. By the help of field test from literature the numerical model validated. After the validity of numerical models additional parametric studies performed. Changes in deformation of embankments are investigated by the changes in, geometry, velocity and impact height of falling rocks.

Keywords: ANSYS, embankment, impact height, numerical analysis, rock fall

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Authors: Elizabeth Stojanovski

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Associations between life events and various forms of cancers have been identified. The purpose of a recent random-effects meta-analysis was to identify studies that examined the association between adverse events associated with changes to financial status including decreased income and breast cancer risk. The same association was studied in four separate studies which displayed traits that were not consistent between studies such as the study design, location and time frame. It was of interest to pool information from various studies to help identify characteristics that differentiated study results. Two random-effects Bayesian meta-analysis models are proposed to combine the reported estimates of the described studies. The proposed models allow major sources of variation to be taken into account, including study level characteristics, between study variance, and within study variance and illustrate the ease with which uncertainty can be incorporated using a hierarchical Bayesian modelling approach.

Keywords: random-effects, meta-analysis, Bayesian, variation

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Authors: Huei-Fu Lu

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Hosting international major sports events (MSEs) has become a globalized strategy for many countries. Most modern countries believe that MSEs can bring the hosting countries with substantial and considerable economic and non-economic benefits; so many cities also input a huge of resources to bid for hosting MSEs. Despite the growing importance of MSEs, limited longitudinal analysis has been carried out to understand and explain the long term economic effects of such events. This paper is to continue the focus of previous literature on the economic effects of hosting MSEs. The study periods are from 1950 to 2014 and the secondary macro-economic data are selected from the countries that have hosted the Asian Games and the Olympic Games (including summer and winter) to precede a longitudinal analysis. A comparison of the real economic growth rate, investment, employment and international trade of hosting countries and the duration of these economic effects are also explored and discussed. Based on the countries’ attributes and locating area, aiming to ascertain whether hosting MSEs is economically worthwhile and whether the economic effects from MSEs are realized as anticipated. The results indicate that hosting MSEs to create positive economic effects like GDP growth or long-term employment may be a myth even for developing countries. However, the empirical findings can provide the sport management or authority with longitudinal and comprehensive elaboration for biding or hosting MSEs in the future.

Keywords: Asian Games, economic effects, major sports events (MSEs), olympic games

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Authors: Joel Rookwood

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Sports mega events have become increasingly significant in sporting, political and economic terms, with analysis often focusing on issues including resource expenditure, development, legacy and sustainability. Transnational tournaments can inspire interest from a variety of demographics, and the operational management of such events can involve contributions from a range of personnel. In addition to television audiences events also attract attending spectators, and in football contexts the temporary migration of fans from potentially rival nations and teams can present event organising committees and security personnel with various challenges in relation to crowd management. The behaviour, interaction and control of supporters has previously led to incidents of disorder and hooliganism, with damage to property as well as injuries and deaths proving significant consequences. The Heysel tragedy at the 1985 European Cup final in Brussels is a notable example, where 39 fans died following crowd disorder and mismanagement. Football disasters and disorder, particularly in the context of international competition, have inspired responses from police, law makers, event organisers, clubs and associations, including stadium improvements, legislative developments and crowd management practice to improve the effectiveness of spectator safety. The growth and internationalisation of fandom and developments in event management and tourism have seen various responses to the evolving challenges associated with hosting large numbers of visiting spectators at mega events. In football contexts ‘fan parks’ are a notable example. Since the first widespread introduction in European football competitions at the 2006 World Cup finals in Germany, these facilities have become a staple element of such mega events. This qualitative, longitudinal, multi-continent research draws on extensive semi-structured interview and observation data. As a frame of reference, this work considers football events staged before and after the development of fan parks. Research was undertaken at four World Cup finals (Japan 2002, Germany 2006, South Africa 2010 and Brazil 2014), four European Championships (Portugal 2004, Switzerland/Austria 2008, Poland/Ukraine 2012 and France 2016), four other confederation tournaments (Ghana 2008, Qatar 2011, USA 2011 and Chile 2015), and four European club finals (Istanbul 2005, Athens 2007, Rome 2009 and Basle 2016). This work found that these parks are typically temporarily erected, specifically located zones where supporters congregate together irrespective of allegiances to watch matches on large screens, and partake in other forms of organised on-site entertainment. Such facilities can also allow organisers to control the behaviour, confine the movement and monitor the alcohol consumption of supporters. This represents a notable shift in policy from previous football tournaments, when the widely assumed causal link between alcohol and hooliganism which frequently shaped legislative and police responses to disorder, also dissuaded some authorities from permitting fans to consume alcohol in and around stadia. It also reflects changing attitudes towards modern football fans. The work also found that in certain contexts supporters have increasingly engaged with such provision which impacts fan behaviour, but that this is relative to factors including location, facilities, management and security.

Keywords: event, facility, fan, management, park

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Authors: Dolgormaa Munkhbaatar, Munkhsaikhan Adiya, Tseedulam Khuut

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We performed an inversion method to determine the 1D-velocity model with station corrections of the Gobi-Altai area in the southern part of Mongolia using earthquake data collected in the National Data Center during the last 10 years. In this study, the concept of the new 1D model has been employed to minimize the average RMS of a set of well-located earthquakes, recorded at permanent (between 2006 and 2016) and temporary seismic stations (between 2014 and 2016), compute solutions for the coupled hypocenter and 1D velocity model. We selected 4800 events with RMS less than 0.5 seconds and with a maximum GAP of 170 degrees and determined velocity structures. Also, we relocated all possible events located in the Gobi-Altai area using the new 1D velocity model and achieved constrained hypocentral determinations for events within this area. We concluded that the estimated new 1D velocity model is a relatively low range compared to the previous velocity model in a significant improvement intend to, and the quality of the information basis for future research center locations to determine the earthquake epicenter area with this new transmission model.

Keywords: 1D velocity model, earthquake, relocation, Velest

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Authors: Majse Lind, Carla Sharp, Salome Vanwoerden

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Narrative identity is the dynamic and evolving story individuals create about their personal pasts, presents, and presumed futures. This storied sense of self develops in adolescence and is crucial for fostering a sense of self-unity and purpose in life. A growing body of work has shown that several characteristics of narrative identity are disturbed in adults suffering from borderline personality disorder (BPD). Very little research, however, has explored the stories told by adolescents with BPD features. Investigating narrative identity early in the lifespan and in relation to personality pathology is crucial; BPD is a developmental disorder with early signs appearing already in adolescence. In the current study, we examine narrative identity (focusing on themes of agency and communion) coded from self-defining memories derived from the child attachment interview in 174 inpatient adolescents (M = 15.12, SD = 1.52) at the time of admission. The adolescents’ social cognition was further assessed on the basis of their reactions to movie scenes (i.e., the MASC movie task). They also completed a trauma checklist and self-reported BPD features at three different time points (i.e., at admission, at discharge, and 6 months after admission). Preliminary results show that adolescents who told stories containing themes of agency and communion evinced better social cognition, and lower emotional abuse on the trauma checklist. In addition, adolescents who disclosed stories containing lower levels of agency and communion demonstrated more BPD symptoms at all three time points, even when controlling for the occurrence of traumatic life events. Surprisingly, social cognitive abilities were not significantly associated with BPD features. These preliminary results underscore the importance of narrative identity as an indicator, and potential cause, of incipient personality pathology. Thus, focusing on diminished themes of narrative-based agency and communion in early adolescence could be crucial in preventing the development of personality pathology over time.

Keywords: borderline personality disorder, inpatient adolescents, narrative identity, follow-ups

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Authors: Imene Skhakhfa, Lahbaci Ouerdachi

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The design of sewerage systems is directly related to rainfall, which has a highly random character. Showers are usually described by three characteristics: intensity, volume and duration. Several studies considered only in two of the three models. The objective of our work is to perform an analysis of the impact of three variables on put in charge of sewerage system, responsible for misbehavior, origin of urban flooding. 30 events were considered events for the longest, most rushed and most intense period which runs from 1986 -2001. We built the IDF curves and heavy projects double symmetrical triangles associated with this selection. A simulation of the operation, with the model canoe, sewage from the city of Annaba (Algeria) in the three rain solicitation project, double triangles associated with events considered. It appears that the sewage of the city of Annaba, in terms of charging, is much more sensitive to rain most precipitous, and the more intense causing loadings and last the longest. Further analysis of all the rain and the field measurements are underway to confirm the test simulations.

Keywords: intensity, volume, duration, sewerage, design, simulation

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