Search results for: extreme indices

Authors: Hamid Kazemi, Abbasali Sadeghi

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Assessment of seismic behavior of frame structures is just done for evaluating life and financial damages or lost. The new structural seismic behavior assessment methods have been proposed, so it is necessary to define a formulation as a damage index, which the damage amount has been quantified and qualified. In this paper, four new steel moment-resisting frames with intermediate ductility and different height (2, 5, 8, and 12-story) with regular geometry and simple rectangular plan were supposed and designed. The three existing groups’ damage indices were studied, each group consisting of local index (Drift, Maximum Roof Displacement, Banon Failure, Kinematic, Banon Normalized Cumulative Rotation, Cumulative Plastic Rotation and Ductility), global index (Roufaiel and Meyer, Papadopoulos, Sozen, Rosenblueth, Ductility and Base Shear), and story (Banon Failure and Inter-story Rotation). The necessary parameters for these damage indices have been calculated under the effect of far-fault ground motion records by Non-linear Dynamic Time History Analysis. Finally, prioritization of damage indices is defined based on more conservative values in terms of more damageability rate. The results show that the selected damage index has an important effect on estimation of the damage state. Also, failure, drift, and Rosenblueth damage indices are more conservative indices respectively for local, story and global damage indices.

Keywords: damage index, far-fault ground motion records, non-linear time history analysis, SeismoStruct software, steel moment-resisting frame

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Authors: Jerry Gyimah, Ernest Kissi, Safowaa Osei-Tutu, Charles Dela Adobor, Theophilus Adjei-Kumi, Ernest Osei-Tutu

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Price fluctuation contract is imperative and of paramount essence, in the construction industry as it provides adequate relief and cushioning for changes in the prices of input resources during construction. As a result, several methods have been devised to better help in arriving at fair recompense in the event of price changes. However, stakeholders often appear not to be satisfied with the existing methods of fluctuation evaluation, ostensibly because of the challenges associated with them. The aim of this study was to identify the challenges to the usage of building construction cost indices in Ghana. Data was gathered from contractors and quantity surveying firms. The study utilized a survey questionnaire approach to elicit responses from the contractors and the consultants. Data gathered was analyzed scientifically, using the relative importance index (RII) to rank the problems associated with the existing methods. The findings revealed the following, among others, late release of data, inadequate recovery of costs, and work items of interest not included in the published indices as the main challenges of the existing methods. Findings provide useful lessons for policymakers and practitioners in decision making towards the usage and improvement of available indices.

Keywords: building construction cost indices, challenges, usage, Ghana

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Authors: A. Zeynolabedin, M. A. Olyaei, B. Ghiasi

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Drought is an inevitable part of the earth’s climate. It occurs regularly with no clear warning and without recognizing borders. In addition, its impact is cumulative and not immediately discernible. Iran is located in a semi-arid region where droughts occur periodically as natural hazard. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI), and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) are three well-known indices which describe drought severity; each has its own advantages and disadvantages and can be used for specific types of drought. These indices take into account some factors such as precipitation, reservoir storage and discharge, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration in determining drought severity. In this paper, first all three indices are calculated in Aharchay river watershed located in northwestern part of Iran in East Azarbaijan province. Next, based on two other important parameters which are groundwater level and solar radiation, two new indices are defined. Finally, considering all five aforementioned indices, a combined drought index (CDI) is presented and calculated for the region. This combined index is based on all the meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural features of the region. The results show that the most severe drought condition in Aharchay watershed happened in Jun, 2004. The result of this study can be used for monitoring drought and prepare for the drought mitigation planning.

Keywords: drought, GIS, intensity index, regional assessment, variation maps

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Authors: Dimitrios Akrivos, Alexandros K. Antoniou

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This paper looks at the crucial role of the British news media in the construction of extreme pornography as a social problem, suggesting that this paved the way for the subsequent criminalization of such material through the introduction of the Criminal Justice and Immigration Act 2008. Focusing on the high-profile case of Graham Coutts, it examines the British national press’ reaction to Jane Longhurst’s murder through a qualitative content analysis of 251 relevant news articles. Specifically, the paper documents the key arguments expressed in the corresponding claims-making process. It considers the different ways in which the consequent ‘trial by media’ presented this exceptional case as the ‘tip of the iceberg’ and eventually translated into policy. The analysis sheds light on the attempts to ‘piggyback’ the issue of extreme pornography on child sexual abuse images as well as the textual and visual mechanisms used to establish an ‘us versus them’ dichotomy in the pertinent media discourse. Finally, the paper assesses the severity of the actual risk posed by extreme pornography, concluding that its criminalization should not merely be dismissed as the outcome of an institutionalized media panic.

Keywords: criminalization, extreme pornography, social problem, trial by media

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Authors: Takeshi Takemoto, Naoya Suzuki, Naohisa Takagaki, Satoru Komori, Masako Terui, George Truscott

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Drag coefficient is an important parameter in order to correctly estimate the air-sea momentum flux. However, The parameterization of the drag coefficient hasn’t been established due to the variation in the field data. Instead, a number of drag coefficient model formulae have been proposed, even though almost all these models haven’t discussed the extreme wind speed range. With regards to such models, it is unclear how the drag coefficient changes in the extreme wind speed range as the wind speed increased. In this study, we investigated the effect of the drag coefficient models concerning the air-sea momentum flux in the extreme wind range on a global scale, comparing two different drag coefficient models. Interestingly, one model didn’t discuss the extreme wind speed range while the other model considered it. We found that the difference of the models in the annual global air-sea momentum flux was small because the occurrence frequency of strong wind was approximately 1% with a wind speed of 20m/s or more. However, we also discovered that the difference of the models was shown in the middle latitude where the annual mean air-sea momentum flux was large and the occurrence frequency of strong wind was high. In addition, the estimated data showed that the difference of the models in the drag coefficient was large in the extreme wind speed range and that the largest difference became 23% with a wind speed of 35m/s or more. These results clearly show that the difference of the two models concerning the drag coefficient has a significant impact on the estimation of a regional air-sea momentum flux in an extreme wind speed range such as that seen in a tropical cyclone environment. Furthermore, we estimated each air-sea momentum flux using several kinds of drag coefficient models. We will also provide data from an observation tower and result from CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) concerning the influence of wind flow at and around the place.

Keywords: air-sea interaction, drag coefficient, air-sea momentum flux, CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics)

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Authors: Seung Hun Lee, Sang Yeoup Lee

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Objectives: To investigate associations between degrees of obesity using correlations between obesity indices and cardiometabolic risk factors. Methods: BMI, waist circumference (WC), fasting insulin, fasting glucose, lipids, and visceral adipose tissue (VAT) area using computed tomographic images were measured in 113 obese female without cardiovascular disease (CVD). Correlations between obesity indices and cardiometabolic risk factors were analyzed in obese subgroups defined using sequential obesity indices. Results: Mean BMI and WC were 29.6 kg/m2 and 92.8 cm. BMI showed significant correlations with all five cardiometabolic risk factors until the BMI cut-off point reached 27 kg/m2, but when it exceeded 30 kg/m2, correlations no longer existed. WC was significantly correlated with all five cardiometabolic risk factors up to a value of 85 cm, but when WC exceeded 90 cm, correlations no longer existed. Conclusions: Our data suggest that moderate weight-loss goals may not be enough to ameliorate cardiometabolic markers in severely obese patients. Therefore, individualized weight-loss goals should be recommended to such patients to improve health benefits.

Keywords: correlation, cardiovascular disease, risk factors, obesity

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Authors: Mahmudur Rahman Khan, Saima Sharif Nilla, Kawser Ahmed, Abdul Aziz

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The marine phyto and zooplankton of the extreme north-eastern part of the Bay of Bengal, off the coast of Bangladesh have been studied. Relative occurrence of phyto and zooplankton and their relationship with physico-chemical conditions (f.e. temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen, carbonate, phosphate, and sulphate) of the water and Shannon-Weiber diversity indices were also studied. The phytoplankton communities represented by 25 genera with 69 species of Bacillariophyceae, 5 genera with 12 species of Dinophyceae and 6 genera with 16 species of Chlorophyceae have been found. A total of 24 genera of 25 species belonging to Protozoa, Coelenterata, Chaetognatha, Nematoda, Cladocera, Copepoda, and decapoda have been recorded. In addition, the average phytoplankton was 80% of all collections, whereas the zooplankton was 20%, Z ratio of about 4:1. The total numbers of plankton individuals per liter were generally higher during low tide than those of high one. Shannon-Weiber diversity indices were highest (3.675 for phytoplankton and 3.021 for zooplankton) in the north-east part and lowest (1.516 for phytoplankton and 1.302 for zooplankton) in the south-east part of the study area. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) showed the relationship between pH and some species of phyto and zooplankton where all diatoms and copepods have showed positive correlation and dinoflagellates showed negative correlation with pH.

Keywords: plankton presence, shannon-weiber diversity index, principal component analysis, Bay of Bengal

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Authors: Emmanuel Iyamuremye, Edouard Singirankabo, Alexis Habineza, Yunvirusaba Nelson

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Temperature is one of the most important climatic factors for crop production. However, severe temperatures cause drought, feverish and cold spells that have various consequences for human life, agriculture, and the environment in general. It is necessary to provide reliable information related to the incidents and the probability of such extreme events occurring. In the 21st century, the world faces a huge number of threats, especially from climate change, due to global warming and environmental degradation. The rise in temperature has a direct effect on the decrease in rainfall. This has an impact on crop growth and development, which in turn decreases crop yield and quality. Countries that are heavily dependent on agriculture use to suffer a lot and need to take preventive steps to overcome these challenges. The main objective of this study is to model the statistical behaviour of extreme maximum temperature values in Rwanda. To achieve such an objective, the daily temperature data spanned the period from January 2000 to December 2017 recorded at nine weather stations collected from the Rwanda Meteorological Agency were used. The two methods, namely the block maxima (BM) method and the Peaks Over Threshold (POT), were applied to model and analyse extreme temperature. Model parameters were estimated, while the extreme temperature return periods and confidence intervals were predicted. The model fit suggests Gumbel and Beta distributions to be the most appropriate models for the annual maximum of daily temperature. The results show that the temperature will continue to increase, as shown by estimated return levels.

Keywords: climate change, global warming, extreme value theory, rwanda, temperature, generalised extreme value distribution, generalised pareto distribution

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Authors: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip, Ebobenow Joseph

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In this paper, temperature extremes are forecast by employing the block maxima method of the generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution to analyse temperature data from the Cameroon Development Corporation (CDC). By considering two sets of data (raw data and simulated data) and two (stationary and non-stationary) models of the GEV distribution, return levels analysis is carried out and it was found that in the stationary model, the return values are constant over time with the raw data, while in the simulated data the return values show an increasing trend with an upper bound. In the non-stationary model, the return levels of both the raw data and simulated data show an increasing trend with an upper bound. This clearly shows that although temperatures in the tropics show a sign of increase in the future, there is a maximum temperature at which there is no exceedance. The results of this paper are very vital in agricultural and environmental research.

Keywords: forecasting, generalized extreme value (GEV), meteorology, return level

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Authors: Bita Mashayekhi, Farzaneh Jalali, Alemeh Yazdanian

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This study contributes to identifying the corporate governance indices in previous researches by using content analysis on relevant papers published in 20 top accounting journals according to Google Scholar ranking, dated from 1990 to 2016. For this purpose, 65 papers are scrutinized deeply, and the concepts of corporate governance are coded and categorized. Then extracted indices are clustered into 10 and 51 categories and subcategories, respectively; and their frequencies are determined. Results show that the board of directors’ characteristics is employed more frequently in reviewed papers, and the board of directors’ independency is the most frequent index within the 97 percent of our sample. Duality, board size, and ownership structure have more frequencies in comparison with other extracted corporate governance indices.

Keywords: corporate governance, content analysis, corporate governance index, top accounting journals

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Authors: B. Hossen, Y. Helmut

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Soil salinity is a major problem for the coastal region of Bangladesh, which has been increasing for the last four decades. Determination of soil salinity is essential for proper land use planning for agricultural crop production. The aim of the research is to estimate and monitor the soil salinity in the study area. Remote sensing can be an effective tool for detecting soil salinity in data-scarce conditions. In the research, Landsat 8 is used, which required atmospheric and radiometric correction, and nine soil salinity indices are applied to develop a soil salinity map. Ground soil salinity data, i.e., EC value, is collected as a printed map which is then scanned and digitized to develop a point shapefile. Linear regression is made between satellite-based generated map and ground soil salinity data, i.e., EC value. The results show that maximum R² value is found for salinity index SI 7 = G*R/B representing 0.022. This minimal R² value refers that there is a negligible relationship between ground EC value and salinity index generated value. Hence, these indices are not appropriate to assess soil salinity though many studies used those soil salinity indices successfully. Therefore, further research is necessary to formulate a model for determining the soil salinity in the coastal of Bangladesh.

Keywords: soil salinity, EC, Landsat 8, salinity indices, linear regression, remote sensing

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Authors: Nathakhun Wiroonsri

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There are various cluster validity measures used for evaluating clustering results. One of the main objectives of using these measures is to seek the optimal unknown number of clusters. Some measures work well for clusters with different densities, sizes and shapes. Yet, one of the weaknesses that those validity measures share is that they sometimes provide only one clear optimal number of clusters. That number is actually unknown and there might be more than one potential sub-optimal option that a user may wish to choose based on different applications. We develop two new cluster validity indices based on a correlation between an actual distance between a pair of data points and a centroid distance of clusters that the two points are located in. Our proposed indices constantly yield several peaks at different numbers of clusters which overcome the weakness previously stated. Furthermore, the introduced correlation can also be used for evaluating the quality of a selected clustering result. Several experiments in different scenarios, including the well-known iris data set and a real-world marketing application, have been conducted to compare the proposed validity indices with several well-known ones.

Keywords: clustering algorithm, cluster validity measure, correlation, data partitions, iris data set, marketing, pattern recognition

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Authors: Amaefule, Leonard Ifeanyi

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The study evaluated the disruptions in Nigeria’s domestic economic activities occasioned by the COVID-19 pandemic: a pre and post-pandemic investigation approach. Domestic economic activities were measured with composite manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) and composite non-manufacturing PMI. Production and employment levels indices were proxies for composite manufacturing PMI, while business activities and employment level indices were proxies for non-manufacturing PMI. Data for these indices were sourced from monthly and quarterly publications of the Central Bank of Nigeria for periods covering fifteen (15) months before and 15 months after the outbreak of the virus in Nigeria. Test of equality of means was employed in establishing the significance of the difference of means between the pre and post-pandemic domestic economic activities. Results from the analysis indicated that a significant negative difference exists in each of the measures of domestic economic activities between the pre and post-pandemic periods. These findings, therefore, offer empirical evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted domestic economic activities in Nigeria; thus, it exerts a negative influence on the measures of the nation’s domestic economic activities. The study thus recommended (among other things) that the Nigerian government should focus on policies that would enhance domestic production, employment and enhance business activities.

Keywords: COVID-19, domestic economic activities, composite manufacturing indices, composite non-manufacturing indices

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Authors: Claudeline D. Cellan

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Development is multifaceted, and efforts to hasten growth in all these facets have been gaining traction in recent years. Thus, producing a composite index that is reflective of these multidimensional impacts captures the interests of policymakers. The problem lies in going through a mixture of theoretical, methodological and empirical decisions and complexities which, when done carelessly, can lead to inconsistent and unreliable results. This study looks into index computation from a different and less complex perspective. Borrowing the idea of archetypes or ‘pure types’, archetypal analysis looks for points in the convex hull of the multivariate data set that captures as much information in the data as possible. The archetypes or 'pure types' are estimated such that they are convex combinations of all the observations, which in turn are convex combinations of the archetypes. This ensures that the archetypes are realistically observable, therefore achievable. In the sense of composite indices, we look for the best among these archetypes and use this as a benchmark for index computation. Its straightforward and simplistic approach does away with aggregation and substitutability problems which are commonly encountered in index computation. As an example of the application of archetypal analysis in index construction, the country data for the Human Development Index (HDI 2017) of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) is used. The goal of this exercise is not to replicate the result of the UNDP-computed HDI, but to illustrate the usability of archetypal analysis in index construction. Here best is defined in the context of life, education and gross national income sub-indices. Results show that the HDI from the archetypal analysis has a linear relationship with the UNDP-computed HDI.

Keywords: archetypes, composite index, convex combination, development

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Authors: A. Flammini, R. Morbidelli, C. Saltalippi

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The increase of air surface temperature at global scale is a fact, with values around 0.85 ºC since the late nineteen century, as well as a significant change in main features of rainfall regime. Nevertheless, the detected climatic changes are not equally distributed all over the world, but exhibit specific characteristics in different regions. Therefore, studying the evolution of climatic indices in different geographical areas with a prefixed standard approach becomes very useful in order to analyze the existence of climatic trend and compare results. In this work, a methodology to investigate the climatic change and its effects on a wide set of climatic indices is proposed and applied at regional scale in the case study of a Mediterranean area, Umbria region in Italy. From data of the available temperature stations, nine temperature indices have been obtained and the existence of trends has been checked by applying the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test, while the non-parametric Pettitt test and the parametric Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT) have been applied to detect the presence of break points. In addition, aimed to characterize the rainfall regime, data from 11 rainfall stations have been used and a trend analysis has been performed on cumulative annual rainfall depth, daily rainfall, rainy days, and dry periods length. The results show a general increase in any temperature indices, even if with a trend pattern dependent of indices and stations, and a general decrease of cumulative annual rainfall and average daily rainfall, with a time rainfall distribution over the year different from the past.

Keywords: climatic change, temperature, rainfall regime, trend analysis

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Authors: Mohammad Soltani, Sajad Ahmadizad, Fatemeh Hoseinzadeh, Atefe Sarvestan

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The exercise recovery is an important variable in designing resistance exercise training. This study determined the effects of passive and active recoveries on responses of platelet indices and hemodynamic variables to resistance exercise. Twelve healthy subjects (six men and six women, age, 25.4 ±2.5 yrs) performed two types of resistance exercise protocols (six exercises including upper- and lower-body parts) at two separate sessions with one-week intervening. First resistance protocol included three sets of six repetitions at 80% of 1RM with 2 min passive rest between sets and exercises; while, the second protocol included three sets of six repetitions at 60% of 1RM followed by active recovery included six repetitions of the same exercise at 20% of 1RM. The exercise volume was equalized. Three blood samples were taken before exercise, immediately after exercise and after 1-hour recovery, and analyzed for fibrinogen and platelet indices. Blood pressure (BP), heart rate (HR) and rate pressure product (RPP), were measured before, immediately after exercise and every 5 minutes during recovery. Data analyzes showed a significant increase in SBP (systolic blood pressure), HR, rate of pressure product (RPP) and PLT in response to resistance exercise (P<0.05) and that changes for HR and RPP were significantly different between two protocols (P<0.05). Furthermore, MPV and P_LCR did not change in response to resistance exercise, though significant reductions were observed after 1h recovery compared to before and after exercise (P<0.05). No significant changes in fibrinogen and PDW following two types of resistance exercise protocols were observed (P>0.05). On the other hand, no significant differences in platelet indices were found between the two protocols (P>0.05). Resistance exercise induces changes in platelet indices and hemodynamic variables, and that these changes are not related to the type of recovery and returned to normal levels after 1h recovery.

Keywords: hemodynamic variables, platelet indices, resistance exercise, recovery intensity

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Authors: Fabrizio Iezzi, Claudio Valente

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The viscous damping in dynamic systems can be proportional or non-proportional. In the first case, the mode shapes are real whereas in the second case they are complex. From an engineering point of view, the complexity of the mode shapes is important in order to quantify the non-proportional damping. Different indices exist to provide estimates of the modal complexity. These indices are or not zero, depending whether the mode shapes are not or are complex. The modal density problem arises in the experimental identification when the dynamic systems have close modal frequencies. Depending on the entity of this closeness, the mode shapes can hold fictitious imaginary quantities that affect the values of the modal complexity indices. The results are the failing in the identification of the real or complex mode shapes and then of the proportional or non-proportional damping. The paper aims to show the influence of the modal density on the values of these indices in case of both proportional and non-proportional damping. Theoretical and pseudo-experimental solutions are compared to analyze the problem according to an appropriate mechanical system.

Keywords: complex mode shapes, dynamic systems identification, modal density, non-proportional damping

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Authors: Saleem Z. Ramadan

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The material selection problem is concerned with the determination of the right material for a certain product to optimize certain performance indices in that product such as mass, energy density, and power-to-weight ratio. This paper is concerned about optimizing the selection of the manufacturing process along with the material used in the product under performance indices and availability constraints. In this paper, the material selection problem is formulated using binary programming and solved by genetic algorithm. The objective function of the model is to minimize the total manufacturing cost under performance indices and material and manufacturing process availability constraints.

Keywords: optimization, material selection, process selection, genetic algorithm

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Authors: Tayyaba Bibi, Jenny Ronan, Robert Hernan, Kathleen O’Rourke, Brendan McHugh, Evin McGovern, Michelle Giltrap, Gordon Chambers, James Wilson

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Sediment contamination is a major source of ecosystem stress and has received significant attention from the scientific community. Both the Water Framework Directive (WFD) and Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD) require a robust set of tools for biological and chemical monitoring. For the MSFD in particular, causal links between contaminant and effects need to be assessed. Appropriate assessment tools are required in order to make an accurate evaluation. In this study, a range of recommended sediment bioassays and chemical measurements are assessed in a number of potentially impacted and lowly impacted locations around Ireland. Previously, assessment indices have been developed on individual compartments, i.e. contaminant levels or biomarker/bioassay responses. A number of assessment indices are applied to chemical and ecotoxicological data from the Seachange project (Project code) and compared including the metal pollution index (MPI), pollution load index (PLI) and Chapman index for chemistry as well as integrated biomarker response (IBR). The benefits and drawbacks of the use of indices and aggregation techniques are discussed. In addition to this, modelling of raw data is investigated to analyse links between contaminant and effects.

Keywords: bioassays, contamination indices, ecotoxicity, marine environment, sediments

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Authors: Xinyi Le

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In this paper, 3D printing orientations were determined through our perceptual model. Some FDM (Fused Deposition Modeling) 3D printers, which are widely used in universities and industries, often require support structures during the additive manufacturing. After removing the residual material, some surface artifacts remain at the contact points. These artifacts will damage the function and visual effect of the model. To prevent the impact of these artifacts, we present a fuzzy extreme learning machine approach to find printing directions that avoid placing supports in perceptually significant regions. The proposed approach is able to solve the evaluation problem by combing both the subjective knowledge and objective information. Our method combines the advantages of fuzzy theory, auto-encoders, and extreme learning machine. Fuzzy set theory is applied for dealing with subjective preference information, and auto-encoder step is used to extract good features without supervised labels before extreme learning machine. An extreme learning machine method is then developed successfully for training and learning perceptual models. The performance of this perceptual model will be demonstrated on both natural and man-made objects. It is a good human-computer interaction practice which draws from supporting knowledge on both the machine side and the human side.

Keywords: 3d printing, perceptual model, fuzzy evaluation, data-driven approach

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Authors: Maria Viktoria Melgo

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This study aimed to determine the possible association between calcium intake and wealth indices of selected female adults. Specifically, it aimed to: a) determine the calcium intake adequacy of the respondents. b) determine the relationship, if any, between calcium intake adequacy, area and wealth indices. The study used the survey design and employed convenience sampling in selecting participants. Two hundred females aged 20 – 64 years old were covered in the study from depressed and non-depressed areas. Data collected were calcium intake taken from two 24-hour food recall and Food Frequency Questionnaire (FFQ) and wealth indices using housing characteristics, household assets and access to utilities and infrastructure. Descriptive statistics and Chi-square test were used to determine the frequency distribution and association between the given variables, respectively, using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) and OpenEpi software. The results showed that there were 86% of respondents in the depressed area with an inadequate calcium intake while there were 78% of respondents in the non-depressed area with an adequate calcium intake. No significant relationship was obtained in most wealth indices with calcium intake adequacy and area but appliance and ownership of main material of the house showed a significant relationship to calcium intake adequacy by area. The study recommends that the Local Government Unit (LGU) should provide seminars or nutrition education that will further enhance the knowledge of the people in the community. The study also recommends to conduct a similar study but with different, larger sample size, different location nonetheless if it is in urban or rural and include the anthropometry measurement of the respondents.

Keywords: association, calcium intake adequacy, metro Manila, Philippines, wealth indices

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Authors: Youness Laaroussi, Zine Elabidine Guennoun, Amine Amar

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Modeling and forecasting dynamics of rainfall occurrences constitute one of the major topics, which have been largely treated by statisticians, hydrologists, climatologists and many other groups of scientists. In the same issue, we propose in the present paper a new hybrid method, which combines Extreme Values and fractal theories. We illustrate the use of our methodology for transformed Emberger Index series, constructed basing on data recorded in Oujda (Morocco). The index is treated at first by Peaks Over Threshold (POT) approach, to identify excess observations over an optimal threshold u. In the second step, we consider the resulting excess as a fractal object included in one dimensional space of time. We identify fractal dimension by the box counting. We discuss the prospect descriptions of rainfall data sets under Generalized Pareto Distribution, assured by Extreme Values Theory (EVT). We show that, despite of the appropriateness of return periods given by POT approach, the introduction of fractal dimension provides accurate interpretation results, which can ameliorate apprehension of rainfall occurrences.

Keywords: extreme values theory, fractals dimensions, peaks Over threshold, rainfall occurrences

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Authors: Vathanachannbo Veth, Ilan Ich, Sophea Rom Phy, Ty Sok, Layheang Song, Sophal Try, Chantha Oeurng

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Climate change is one of the major global challenges inducing disaster risks and threatening livelihoods and communities through adverse impacts on food and water security, ecosystems, and services. Prek Thnot River Basin of Cambodia is one of the largest tributaries in the Lower Mekong that has been exposed to hazards and disasters, particularly floods and is said to be the effect of climate change. Therefore, the assessment of precipitation and streamflow changes under the effect of climate change was proposed in this river basin using Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and different flow indices under baseline (1997 to 2011) and climate change scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 with three General Circulation Models (GCMs): GFDL, GISS, and IPSL) in two time-horizons: near future (the 2030s: 2021 to 2040) and medium future (2060s: 2051 to 2070). Both intensity and frequency indices compared with the historical extreme rainfall indices significantly change in the GFDL under the RCP8.5 for both 2030s and 2060s. The average rate change of Rx1day, Rx10day, SDII, and R20mm in the 2030s and 2060s of both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 was found to increase in GFDL and decrease in both GISS and IPSL. The mean percentage change of the flow analyzed in the IHA tool (Group1) indicated that the flow in the Prek Thnot River increased in GFDL for both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 in both 2030s and 2060s, oppositely in GISS, the flow decreases. Moreover, the IPSL affected the flow by increasing in five months (January, February, October, November, and December), and in the other seven months, the flow decreased accordingly. This study provides water resources managers and policymakers with a wide range of precipitation and water flow projections within the Prek Thnot River Basin in the context of plausible climate change scenarios.

Keywords: IHA, climate change, disaster risk, Prek Thnot River Basin, Cambodia

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Authors: Ka-lok Kan, Oluwatoyin Ajibade, Issa Chaer

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Climate change’s extreme weather patterns significantly affect the durability and maintenance costs of existing asphalt Road Pavement Systems (RPS). Moreover, the current RPS imposes a considerable environmental burden, as its production involves the large-scale extraction of bitumen and the dredging of Virgin Sand and Gravel (VSG). Recent studies suggest that more sustainable alternatives, such as incorporating carbonated aggregates to reduce the use of virgin materials content in asphalt, can enhance asphalt performance while offering an effective cost management strategy. However, the impact of extreme weather conditions on the durability and maintenance requirements of these green solutions remains unexplored. This paper reports on the results of comprehensive durability tests conducted on a novel asphalt pavement to assess the effects of anticipated extreme winter and summer weather conditions. Preliminary findings indicate that the new asphalt pavement system made from carbonated aggregates demonstrates greater stability and fatigue resistance in comparison to traditional asphalt mixes.

Keywords: climate change, carbonated aggregates, green solution, asphalt

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Authors: Nkongho Ayuketang Arreyndip, Ebobenow Joseph

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In this paper, to model a real life wind turbine, a probabilistic approach is proposed to model the dynamics of the blade elements of a small axial wind turbine under extreme stochastic wind speeds conditions. It was found that the power and the torque probability density functions even though decreases at these extreme wind speeds but are not infinite. Moreover, we also found that it is possible to stabilize the power coefficient (stabilizing the output power) above rated wind speeds by turning some control parameters. This method helps to explain the effect of turbulence on the quality and quantity of the harness power and aerodynamic torque.

Keywords: probability, probability density function, stochastic, turbulence

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Authors: O. Sunantha, S. Zhenfeng, S. Phattraporn, A. Zeeshan

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The decline of soil organic carbon (SOC) in global agriculture is a critical issue requiring rapid and accurate estimation for informed policymaking. While it is recognized that SOC predictors vary significantly when derived from remote sensing data and environmental variables, identifying the specific parameters most suitable for accurately estimating SOC in diverse agricultural areas remains a challenge. This study utilizes remote sensing data to precisely estimate SOC and identify influential factors in diverse agricultural areas, such as paddy, corn, sugarcane, cassava, and perennial crops. Extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), random forest (RF), and support vector regression (SVR) models are employed to analyze these factors' impact on SOC estimation. The results show key factors influencing SOC estimation include slope, vegetation indices (EVI), spectral reflectance indices (red index, red edge2), temperature, land use, and surface soil moisture, as indicated by their averaged importance scores across XGBoost, RF, and SVR models. Therefore, using different machine learning algorithms for SOC estimation reveals varying influential factors from remote sensing data and environmental variables. This approach emphasizes feature selection, as different machine learning algorithms identify various key factors from remote sensing data and environmental variables for accurate SOC estimation.

Keywords: factors influencing SOC estimation, remote sensing data, environmental variables, machine learning

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Authors: Md. Ruhul Amin

Abstract:

The effects of CB1, CB3, CB5, CB8 and CB12 cotton varieties on the nutritional indices and biological parameters of armyworm Spodoptera litura were studied under laboratory conditions. The armyworm larvae showed the highest and lowest food consumption rates on CB8 and CB1 variety, respectively. The efficiency of the conversion of digested food, efficiency of conversion of ingested food, approximate digestibility rates were statistically higher and similar on CB5 and CB8, and lowest on CB1. The larvae reared on CB12 variety exerted the lowest feeding and growth indices, and the relative growth rate was highest on CB8. The survival rates of egg, larva, pupa and adult moths were found highest on CB8 and lowest on CB12. The development durations of the immature stages of the insect differed significantly and the time elapsed from egg-to-adult emergence, longevity of both male and female moths, and their lifecycle were shortest on CB12 variety. The nutritional indices and biological parameters of the armyworm indicated that the varieties CB5 and CB8 were suitable host plants for feeding and development of S. litura.

Keywords: gossypium hirsutum, spodoptera litura, food consumption, life history

Procedia PDF Downloads 382

Authors: F. Calderón-Vega, A. D. García-Soto, C. Mösso

Abstract:

Recorded significant wave heights sometimes exhibit large uncommon values (outliers) that can be associated with extreme phenomena such as hurricanes and cold fronts. In this study, some extremely large wave heights recorded in NOAA buoys (National Data Buoy Center, noaa.gov) are used to investigate their effect in the prediction of future wave heights associated with given return periods. Extreme waves are predicted through a time-dependent model based on the so-called generalized extreme value distribution. It is found that the outliers do affect the estimated wave heights. It is concluded that a detailed inspection of outliers is envisaged to determine whether they are real recorded values since this will impact defining design wave heights for coastal protection purposes.

Keywords: GEV model, non-stationary, seasonality, outliers

Procedia PDF Downloads 195

Authors: Li Li, Kai-Hsuan Chu

Abstract:

It is well known that the real estate price depends on a lot of factors. Each house current value is dependent on the location, room number, transportation, living convenience, year and surrounding environments. Although, there are different experienced models for housing agent to estimate the price, it is a case by case study without overall dynamic variation investigation. However, many economic parameters may more or less influence the real estate price variation. Here, the influences of most macroeconomic parameters on real estate price are investigated individually based on least-square scheme and grey correlation strategy. Then those parameters are classified into leading indices, simultaneous indices and laggard indices. In addition, the leading time period is evaluated based on least square method. The important leading and simultaneous indices can be used to establish an artificial intelligent neural network model for real estate price variation prediction. The real estate price variation of Taipei, Taiwan during 2005 ~ 2017 are chosen for this research data analysis and validation. The results show that the proposed method has reasonable prediction function for real estate business reference.

Keywords: real estate price, least-square, grey correlation, macroeconomics

Procedia PDF Downloads 197

Authors: Betty Johanna Garzon Rozo, Jonathan Crook, Fernando Moreira

Abstract:

Operational risk losses are heavy tailed and are likely to be asymmetric and extremely dependent among business lines/event types. We propose a new methodology to assess, in a multivariate way, the asymmetry and extreme dependence between severity distributions, and to calculate the capital for Operational Risk. This methodology simultaneously uses (i) several parametric distributions and an alternative mix distribution (the Lognormal for the body of losses and the Generalized Pareto Distribution for the tail) via extreme value theory using SAS®, (ii) the multivariate skew t-copula applied for the first time for operational losses and (iii) Bayesian theory to estimate new n-dimensional skew t-copula models via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. This paper analyses a newly operational loss data set, SAS Global Operational Risk Data [SAS OpRisk], to model operational risk at international financial institutions. All the severity models are constructed in SAS® 9.2. We implement the procedure PROC SEVERITY and PROC NLMIXED. This paper focuses in describing this implementation.

Keywords: operational risk, loss distribution approach, extreme value theory, copulas

Procedia PDF Downloads 600