Search results for: risk factors

Authors: Soheila Sadeghi

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Construction projects are complex and often subject to significant cost overruns due to the multifaceted nature of the activities involved. Accurate cost estimation is crucial for effective budget planning and resource allocation. Traditional methods for predicting overruns often rely on expert judgment or analysis of historical data, which can be time-consuming, subjective, and may fail to consider important factors. However, with the increasing availability of data from construction projects, machine learning techniques can be leveraged to improve the accuracy of overrun predictions. This study applied machine learning algorithms to enhance the prediction of cost overruns in a case study of a construction project. The methodology involved the development and evaluation of two machine learning models: Random Forest and Neural Networks. Random Forest can handle high-dimensional data, capture complex relationships, and provide feature importance estimates. Neural Networks, particularly Deep Neural Networks (DNNs), are capable of automatically learning and modeling complex, non-linear relationships between input features and the target variable. These models can adapt to new data, reduce human bias, and uncover hidden patterns in the dataset. The findings of this study demonstrate that both Random Forest and Neural Networks can significantly improve the accuracy of cost overrun predictions compared to traditional methods. The Random Forest model also identified key cost drivers and risk factors, such as changes in the scope of work and delays in material delivery, which can inform better project risk management. However, the study acknowledges several limitations. First, the findings are based on a single construction project, which may limit the generalizability of the results to other projects or contexts. Second, the dataset, although comprehensive, may not capture all relevant factors influencing cost overruns, such as external economic conditions or political factors. Third, the study focuses primarily on cost overruns, while schedule overruns are not explicitly addressed. Future research should explore the application of machine learning techniques to a broader range of projects, incorporate additional data sources, and investigate the prediction of both cost and schedule overruns simultaneously.

Keywords: resource allocation, machine learning, optimization, data-driven decision-making, project management

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Authors: Arie Pujiwati, Kengo Nakamura, Noriaki Watanabe, Takeshi Komai

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Coal mining is well known to cause considerable environmental impacts, including trace element contamination of soil. This study aimed to assess the trace element (As, Cd, Co, Cu, Ni, Pb, Sb, and Zn) contamination of soil in the vicinity of coal mining activities, using the case study of Asam-asam River basin, South Kalimantan, Indonesia, and to assess the human health risk, incorporating total and bioavailable (water-leachable and acid-leachable) concentrations. The results show the enrichment of As and Co in soil, surpassing the background soil value. Contamination was evaluated based on the index of geo-accumulation, I_geo and the pollution index, PI. I_geo values showed that the soil was generally uncontaminated (I_geo ≤ 0), except for elevated As and Co. Mean PI for Ni and Cu indicated slight contamination. Regarding the assessment of health risks, the Hazard Index, HI showed adverse risks (HI > 1) for Ni, Co, and As. Further, Ni and As were found to pose unacceptable carcinogenic risk (risk > 1.10^-5). Farming, settlement, and plantation were found to present greater risk than coal mines. These results show that coal mining activity in the study area contaminates the soils by particular elements and may pose potential human health risk in its surrounding area. This study is important for setting appropriate countermeasure actions and improving basic coal mining management in Indonesia.

Keywords: coal mine, risk, trace elements, soil

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Authors: Mohsin Ali Baloch, Saira Baloch

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Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the levels of serum lipid profiles in Urban and Rural Population of Sindh, to indicate the existing risk of cardiovascular diseases. Material and Methods: Study was conducted at Liaquat University of Medical & Health Sciences, in the cities of Jamshoro and Hyderabad of Sindh. Blood samples from 300 healthy individuals were collected in fasting condition, out them 100 were from rural population, 100 were urban while 100 were used as control group. The biochemistry of these samples was obtained by the analysis of total Cholesterol, high density lipoprotein Cholesterol (HDL), low-density lipoprotein Cholesterol (LDL) and Triglycerides using kit method on Analyzer Clinical Chemistry. Results and Conclusion: Serum levels of total cholesterol, Triglycerides, and LDL cholesterol were significantly raised in the rural and urban males, whereas HDL cholesterol was decreased as compared to the Healthy controls that indicated significant risk of CVD. Urban population was with more risk of CVD and male gender in both groups was at more risk. The worst lipid profile in gender wise distribution was observed in male gender of urban population with highest Total Cholesterol/HDL Ratio while female gender also shown moderate risk of CVD with highest LDL/HDL Ratio.

Keywords: cardiovascular diseases, lipid profiles, urban and rural population, LDL/HDL Ratio

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Authors: Armaghan Moravej Aleali, Seyed Bahman Ghaderian, Homeira Rashidi, Mahmoud Mapar

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Background and Objective The metabolic syndrome (MetS) is considered the most important public health threat of the 21st century. This syndrome is characterized by a cluster of cardiovascular risk factors including increased central abdominal obesity, elevated triglycerides, reduced high-density lipoprotein, high blood pressure, increased fasting glucose, and hyperinsulinemia. MetS has been associated with hypogonadism and erectile dysfunction (ED), and MetS may be considered a risk factor for ED. The aim of this study was finding an association between metabolic syndrome and hypogonadism in Khouzestan, Iran. Subjects and Methods: In this study, 60 patients divided into two groups consisted of 30 cases (with metabolic syndrome) and 30 controls. Total and free Serum Testosterone and FBS in all of them were measured. Data was analyzed with SPSS20 program. Results: There was a significant difference between two groups about free Testosterone (P=0.01), FBS (P=0.002) and LH (P=0.03). Conclusion: According to this finding, it is thought the prevalence of hypogonadism in men with metabolic syndrome is more than the general population.

Keywords: metabolic syndrome, fasting blood sugar, hypogonadism, testosterone

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Authors: Dedjo Yao Simon, Takahiro Saito, Norikazu Inuzuka, Ikuo Sugiyama

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Abidjan city (Republic of Ivory Coast) is an emerging megacity and an urban coastal area where the number of floods reported is on a rapid increase due to climate change and unplanned urbanization. However, comprehensive disaster mitigation plans, policies, and financial resources are still lacking as the population ignores the extent and location of the flood zones; making them unprepared to mitigate the damages. Considering the existing condition, this paper aims to discuss an approach for flood risk reduction in Cocody Commune through value capture strategy and flood risk communication. Using geospatial techniques and hydrological simulation, we start our study by delineating flood zones and depths under several return periods in the study area. Then, through a questionnaire a field survey is conducted in order to validate the flood maps, to estimate the flood risk and to collect some sample of the opinion of residents on how the flood risk information disclosure could affect the values of property located inside and outside the flood zones. The results indicate that the study area is highly vulnerable to 5-year floods and more, which can cause serious harm to human lives and to properties as demonstrated by the extent of the 5-year flood of 2014. Also, it is revealed there is a high probability that the values of property located within flood zones could decline, and the values of surrounding property in the safe area could increase when risk information disclosure commences. However in order to raise public awareness of flood disaster and to prevent future housing promotion in high-risk prospective areas, flood risk information should be disseminated through the establishment of an early warning system. In order to reduce the effect of risk information disclosure and to protect the values of property within the high-risk zone, we propose that property tax increments in flood free zones should be captured and be utilized for infrastructure development and to maintain the early warning system that will benefit people living in flood prone areas. Through this case study, it is shown that combination of value capture strategy and risk communication could be an effective tool to educate citizen and to invest in flood risk reduction in emerging countries.

Keywords: Cocody-Abidjan, flood, geospatial techniques, risk communication, value capture

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Authors: M. V. Shivaani, P. K. Jain, Surendra S. Yadav

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Public Sector Undertakings (PSUs), being government-owned organizations have commitments for the economic and social wellbeing of the society; this commitment needs to be reflected in their risk-taking, decision-making and governance structures. Therefore, the primary objective of the study is to suggest measures that may lead to improvement in performance of PSUs. To achieve this objective two normative frameworks (one relating to risk levels and other relating to governance structure) are being put forth. The risk index is based on nine risks, such as, solvency risk, liquidity risk, accounting risk, etc. and each of the risks have been scored on a scale of 1 to 5. The governance index is based on eleven variables, such as, board independence, diversity, risk management committee, etc. Each of them are scored on a scale of 1 to five. The sample consists of 39 PSUs that featured in Nifty 500 index and, the study covers a 10 year period from April 1, 2005 to March, 31, 2015. Return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) have been used as proxies of firm performance. The control variables used in the model include, age of firm, growth rate of firm and size of firm. A dummy variable has also been used to factor in the effects of recession. Given the panel nature of data and possibility of endogeneity, dynamic panel data- generalized method of moments (Diff-GMM) regression has been used. It is worth noting that the corporate governance index is positively related to both ROA and ROE, indicating that with the improvement in governance structure, PSUs tend to perform better. Considering the components of CGI, it may be suggested that (i). PSUs ensure adequate representation of women on Board, (ii). appoint a Chief Risk Officer, and (iii). constitute a risk management committee. The results also indicate that there is a negative association between risk index and returns. These results not only validate the framework used to develop the risk index but also provide a yardstick to PSUs benchmark their risk-taking if they want to maximize their ROA and ROE. While constructing the CGI, certain non-compliances were observed, even in terms of mandatory requirements, such as, proportion of independent directors. Such infringements call for stringent penal provisions and better monitoring of PSUs. Further, if the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) bring about such reforms in the PSUs and make mandatory the adherence to the normative frameworks put forth in the study, PSUs may have more effective and efficient decision-making, lower risks and hassle free management; all these ultimately leading to better ROA and ROE.

Keywords: PSU, risk governance, diff-GMM, firm performance, the risk index

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Authors: Mikhail V. Khachaturyan

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The article analyzes problems of improving the management systems of the ownership risks in the conditions of the transformation of the Russian economy. Among the main sources of threats business owners should highlight is the inefficiency of the implementation of business models and interaction with hired managers. In this context, it is particularly important to analyze the relationship of business models and ownership risks. The analysis of this problem appears to be relevant for a number of reasons: Firstly, the increased risk appetite of the owner directly affects the business model and the composition of his holdings; secondly, owners with significant stakes in the company are factors in the formation of particular types of risks for owners, for which relations have a significant influence on a firm's competitiveness and ultimately determines its survival; and thirdly, inefficient system of management ownership of risk is one of the main causes of mass bankruptcies, which significantly affects the stable operation of the economy as a whole. The separation of the processes of possession, disposal and use in modern organizations is the cause of not only problems in the process of interaction between the owner and managers in managing the organization as a whole, but also the asymmetric information about the kinds and forms of the main risks. Managers tend to avoid risky projects, inhibit the diversification of the organization's assets, while owners can insist on the development of such projects, with the aim not only of creating new values for themselves and consumers, but also increasing the value of the company as a result of increasing capital. In terms of separating ownership and management, evaluation of projects by the ratio of risk-yield requires preservation of the influence of the owner on the process of development and making management decisions. It is obvious that without a clearly structured system of participation of the owner in managing the risks of their business, further development is hopeless. In modern conditions of forming a risk management system, owners are compelled to compromise between the desire to increase the organization's ability to produce new value, and, consequently, increase its cost due to the implementation of risky projects and the need to tolerate the cost of lost opportunities of risk diversification. Improving the effectiveness of the management of ownership risks may also contribute to the revitalization of creditors on implementation claims to inefficient owners, which ultimately will contribute to the efficiency models of ownership control to exclude variants of insolvency. It is obvious that in modern conditions, the success of the model of the ownership of risk management and audit is largely determined by the ability and willingness of the owner to find a compromise between potential opportunities for expanding the firm's ability to create new value through risk and maintaining the current level of new value creation and an acceptable level of risk through the use of models of diversification.

Keywords: improving, ownership risks, problem, Russia

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Authors: Tamanna Rimi

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A large body of literature has discussed the determinants of migration decision. However, the potential role of individual risk attitudes on migration decision has so far been overlooked. The research on migration literature has studied how the expected income differential influences migration flows for a risk neutral individual. However, migration takes place when there is no expected income differential or even the variability of income appears as lower than in the current location. This migration puzzle motivates a recent trend in the literature that analyzes how attitudes towards risk influence the decision to migrate. However, the significance of risk attitudes on migration decision has been addressed mostly in a theoretical perspective in the mainstream migration literature. The efficient outcome of labor market and overall economy are largely influenced by migration in many countries. Therefore, attitudes towards risk as a determinant of migration should get more attention in empirical studies. To author’s best knowledge, this is the first study that has examined the relationship between relative risk aversion and migration decision in US market. This paper considers movement across United States as a means of migration. In addition, this paper also explores the network effect due to the increasing size of one’s own ethnic group to a source location on the migration decision and how attitudes towards risk vary with network effect. Two ethnic groups (i.e. Asian and Hispanic) have been considered in this regard. For the empirical estimation, this paper uses two sources of data: 1) U.S. census data for social, economic, and health research, 2010 (IPUMPS) and 2) University of Michigan Health and Retirement Study, 2010 (HRS). In order to measure relative risk aversion, this study uses the ‘Two Sample Two-Stage Instrumental Variable (TS2SIV)’ technique. This is a similar method of Angrist (1990) and Angrist and Kruegers’ (1992) ‘Two Sample Instrumental Variable (TSIV)’ technique. Using a probit model, the empirical investigation yields the following results: (i) risk attitude has a significantly large impact on migration decision where more risk averse people are less likely to migrate; (ii) the impact of risk attitude on migration varies by other demographic characteristics such as age and sex; (iii) people with higher concentration of same ethnic households living in a particular place are expected to migrate less from their current place; (iv) the risk attitudes on migration vary with network effect. The overall findings of this paper relating risk attitude, migration decision and network effect can be a significant contribution addressing the gap between migration theory and empirical study in migration literature.

Keywords: migration, network effect, risk attitude, U.S. market

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Authors: Ahmed O. Babaleye, Rafet E. Kurt

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The global oil and gas industry is beginning to witness an increase in the number of installations moving towards decommissioning. Decommissioning of offshore installations is a complex, costly and hazardous activity, making safety one of the major concerns. Among existing removal options, complete and partial removal options pose the highest risks. Therefore, a dynamic risk model of the accidents from the two options is important to assess the risks on an overall basis. In this study, a risk-based safety model is developed to conduct quantitative risk analysis (QRA) for jacket structure systems failure. Firstly, bow-tie (BT) technique is utilised to model the causal relationship between the system failure and potential accident scenarios. Subsequently, to relax the shortcomings of BT, Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) were established to dynamically assess associated uncertainties and conditional dependencies. The BBN is developed through a similitude mapping of the developed bow-tie. The BBN is used to update the failure probabilities of the contributing elements through diagnostic analysis, thus, providing a case-specific and realistic safety analysis method when compared to a bow-tie. This paper presents the application of dynamic safety analysis to guide the allocation of risk control measures and consequently, drive down the avoidable cost of remediation.

Keywords: Bayesian belief network, offshore decommissioning, dynamic safety model, quantitative risk analysis

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Authors: Raneem O. Salem, Najwa Al-Mously, Nihal Mohamed Nabil, Abdulmohsen H. Al-Zalabani, Abeer F. Al-Dhawi, Nasser Al-Hamdan

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Objective: There are various demographic and educational factors that affect the academic performance of undergraduate medical students. The objective of this study is to identify these factors and correlate them to the GPA of the students. Methods: A cross-sectional study design utilizing grade point averages (GPAs) of two cohorts of students in both levels of the pre-clinical phase. In addition, self-administered questionnaire was used to evaluate the effect of these factors on students with poor and good cumulative GPA. Results: Among the various factors studied, gender, marital status, and the transportation used to reach the faculty significantly affected academic performance of students. Students with a cumulative GPA of 3.0 or greater significantly differed than those with a GPA of less than 3.0 being higher in female students, in married students, and type of transportation used to reach the college. Factors including age, educational factors, and type of transportation used have shown to create a significant difference in GPA between male and females. Conclusion: Factors such as age, gender, marital status, learning resources, study time, and the transportation used have been shown to significantly affect medical student GPA as a whole batch as well as when they are tested for gender.

Keywords: academic performance, educational factors, learning resources, study time, gender, socio-demographic factors

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Authors: Samart Homthong, Wutthipong Moungnoi

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Critical success factors (CSFs) and the criteria to measure project success have received much attention over the decades and are among the most widely researched topics in the context of project management. However, although there have been extensive studies on the subject by different researchers, to date, there has been little agreement on the CSFs. The aim of this study is to identify the CSFs that influence the performance of construction projects, and determine their relative importance for different objectives across five stages in the project life cycle. A considerable literature review was conducted that resulted in the identification of 179 individual factors. These factors were then grouped into nine major categories. A questionnaire survey was used to collect data from three groups of respondents: client representatives, consultants, and contractors. Out of 164 questionnaires distributed, 93 were returned, yielding a response rate of 56.7%. Using the mean score, relative importance index, and weighted average method, the top 10 critical factors for each category were identified. The agreement of survey respondents on those categorised factors were analysed using Spearman’s rank correlation. A one-way analysis of variance was then performed to determine whether the mean scores among the various groups of respondents were statistically significant. The findings indicate the most CSFs in each category in procurement phase are: proper procurement programming of materials (time), stability in the price of materials (cost), and determining quality in the construction (quality). They are then followed by safety equipment acquisition and maintenance (health and safety), budgeting allowed in a contractual arrangement for implementing environmental management activities (environment), completeness of drawing documents (productivity), accurate measurement and pricing of bill of quantities (risk management), adequate communication among the project team (human resource), and adequate cost control measures (client satisfaction). An understanding of CSFs would help all interested parties in the construction industry to improve project performance. Furthermore, the results of this study would help construction professionals and practitioners take proactive measures for effective project management.

Keywords: critical success factors, procurement phase, project life cycle, project performance

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Authors: Ahmad Shanei, Milad Baradaran-Ghahfarokhi

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This study aimed to investigate testicular dose (TD) and the associated risk of heritable disease from common pelvis radiotherapy of male patients in Iran. In this work, the relation between TD and changes in beam energy, pelvis size, source to skin distance (SSD) and beam directions (anterior or posterior) were also evaluated. The values of TDs were measured on 67 randomly selected male patients during common pelvis radiotherapy using 1.17 and 1.33 MeV, Theratron Cobalt-60 unit at SSD of 80 cm and 9 MV, Neptun 10 PC and 18 MV, GE Saturne 20 at SSD of 100 cm at Seyed-Al Shohada Hospital, Isfahan, Iran. Results showed that the maximum TD was up to 12% of the tumor dose. Considering the risk factor for radiation-induced heritable disorders of 0.1% per Sv, an excess risk of hereditary disorders of 72 per 10000 births was conservatively calculated. There was a significant difference in the measured TD using different treatment machines and energies (P < 0.001). The TD at 100 cm SSD were much less than that for 80 cm SSD (P <0.001). The Pearson Correlation test showed that, as expected, there was a strong correlation between TD and patient’s pelvis size (r = 0.275, P <0.001). Using the student’s t-tests, it was found that, there was not a significant difference between TD and beam direction (P = 0.231). Iranian male patients undergoing pelvic radiotherapy have the potential of receiving a TD of more than 1 Gy which might result in temporary azoospermia. The risk for induction of hereditary disorders in future generations should be considered as low but not negligible in comparison with the correspondent nominal risk.

Keywords: pelvis radiotherapy, testicular dose, infertility, hereditary effects

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Authors: Jeff Dickie

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This research paper combined grounded coding and research questions with the objective to investigate conflict resolution in the classroom. The students’ answers concerning teaching were coded according to phrasal meanings which revealed concepts. These concept codes then became input data into theoretical frameworks. The investigation indicated two conflicts: whether the information was valid and whether to make the study effort which was discussed as perceptions of teacher’s competence in helping to learn. The relevant factors in helping to learn were predominately emotional. These factors were important in the negotiation process to develop relationships. Information validity seemed to be the motivator to begin and participate effectively with the learning process. In effect, confidence in the learning negotiation process with the focus towards relationship building with the subject matter seemed to be the motivator to make the study effort.

Keywords: coding, confidence, competence, conflict resolution, risk, trust, relationship building

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Authors: Krystal Wang, Chongzheng Wei, Runsen Chen, Shufang Sun

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Suicide is a global public mental health issue and is the tenth leading cause of death globally. Approximately 75% of suicides occur in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC). Compared to the general population, transgender and gender nonconforming (TGNC) young people have higher suicidal risks. Research has shown that the prevalence of suicidal behaviors among TGNC populations was high in both the United States and China. However, studies were mostly embedded within Western cultures. Limited data and research were available to assess suicidal behaviors among TGNC youth in LMIC countries and to consider various types of TGNC youth. The goal of the current project is to 1) investigate the prevalence of lifetime and past-year suicidal ideations, plans, and attempts among Chinese TGNC youth, 2) explore the relationship between gender identity and suicidal outcomes among TGNC youth in China, 3) identify individual, school, and family level risk and protective factors for suicidal behaviors. The study used data from a cross-sectional survey conducted by Beijing LGBTQ Center in 2021. The survey was the largest TGNC population study in China to understand the health conditions of TGNC individuals. Of the 7612 individuals who completed the survey, a total of 5632 youth (aged 10 to 19) was included in the final analysis. 2259 (40.11%) participants were categorized as transfeminine youth, 1034 (18.36%) as transmasculine youth, 1169 (20.76%) as nonbinary youth AFAB, 568 (10.09%) as nonbinary youth AMAB, 344 (6.11%) as questioning youth AFAB and 258 (4.58%) as questioning youth AMAB. Suicidal behaviors were assessed by asking about lifetime suicidal ideation and attempts, past 12 months suicidal ideation, plan and attempts, and suicidal methods. To achieve the aims, we conducted statistical analysis in Stata/SE 17.0 to 1) describe the prevalence of suicidal outcomes and 2) assess the relationship between gender identity and suicidal outcomes by performing crosstabs, bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions, and adjusting for covariates. The lifetime prevalence of suicidal ideations and attempts for the whole sample was 85.13% and 51.7%. Transfeminine youth had a significantly higher risk for lifetime suicidal ideations (Odds Ratios (OR) = 1.67, CI:1.28,2.18) and attempts than transmasculine youth (OR=1.66, CI: 1.35,2.03), adjusting for age and past year binge drinking, known risk factors of suicide behavior. Past-year prevalence of suicidal behaviors was also high among TGNC youth, with 75.69% in suicidal ideation, 88.77% in suicidal plans, and 57.96% in suicidal attempts. Transfeminine youth, among six subgroups, had the highest risk for past-year suicidal ideations and attempts compared to transmasculine youth. Non-binary youth, regardless of sex assigned at birth, also had a significantly higher risk for suicidal ideations. The prevalence of lifetime and past-year suicidal behaviors was alarming among TGNC youth in China. Among different categories of TGNC youth, transfeminine youth reported the most elevated suicidal risk. The findings indicated a compelling need for researchers and practitioners to address the mental health risks for this specific group and target interventions for TGNC youth in China.

Keywords: child and adolescent mental health, gender minority health, cross-cultural perspective, preventing suicide in youth

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Authors: Rob Leslie, Taher Karimian

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The blockage of cross drainage structures is a risk that needs to be understood and managed or lessened through the design. A blockage is a random event, influenced by site-specific factors, which needs to be quantified for design. Under and overestimation of blockage can have major impacts on flood risk and cost associated with drainage structures. The importance of this matter is heightened for those projects located within sensitive lands. It is a particularly complex problem for large linear infrastructure projects (e.g., rail corridors) located within floodplains where blockage factors can influence flooding upstream and downstream of the infrastructure. The selection of the appropriate blockage factors for hydraulic modeling has been subject to extensive research by hydraulic engineers. This paper has been prepared to review the current Australian Rainfall and Runoff 2019 (ARR 2019) methodology for blockage assessment by applying this method to a transport corridor brownfield upgrade case study in New South Wales. The results of applying the method are also validated against asset data and maintenance records. ARR 2019 – Book 6, Chapter 6 includes advice and an approach for estimating the blockage of bridges and culverts. This paper concentrates specifically on the blockage of cross drainage structures. The method has been developed to estimate the blockage level for culverts affected by sediment or debris due to flooding. The objective of the approach is to evaluate a numerical blockage factor that can be utilized in a hydraulic assessment of cross drainage structures. The project included an assessment of over 200 cross drainage structures. In order to estimate a blockage factor for use in the hydraulic model, a process has been advanced that considers the qualitative factors (e.g., Debris type, debris availability) and site-specific hydraulic factors that influence blockage. A site rating associated with the debris potential (i.e., availability, transportability, mobility) at each crossing was completed using the method outlined in ARR 2019 guidelines. The hydraulic results inputs (i.e., flow velocity, flow depth) and qualitative factors at each crossing were developed into an advanced spreadsheet where the design blockage level for cross drainage structures were determined based on the condition relating Inlet Clear Width and L10 (average length of the longest 10% of the debris reaching the site) and the Adjusted Debris Potential. Asset data, including site photos and maintenance records, were then reviewed and compared with the blockage assessment to check the validity of the results. The results of this assessment demonstrate that the estimated blockage factors at each crossing location using ARR 2019 guidelines are well-validated with the asset data. The primary finding of the study is that the ARR 2019 methodology is a suitable approach for culvert blockage assessment that has been validated against a case study spanning a large geographical area and multiple sub-catchments. The study also found that the methodology can be effectively coded within a spreadsheet or similar analytical tool to automate its application.

Keywords: ARR 2019, blockage, culverts, methodology

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Authors: Renny Wulandari

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This study aims to determine how the influence of Non Performing Financing, Financing Deposit Ratio, Operating Expenses and Operating Revenue and Net Income Margin on the disclosure of financial risk in Sharia banks. To achieve these objectives conducted associative research method with data source in the form of secondary data that is annual report data with period 2013-2016. The population in this study is the sharia banking industry in Indonesia and who issued the annual financial statements. A method of sampling use probability sampling. Analysis in this research is with SEM-PLS. The result is Net Income Margin has a significant effect on financial risk disclosure while Non Performing Financing (NPF) Financing to Deposit Ratio (FDR), Operating Expenses and Operating Revenue (OEOR) have no effect on the disclosure of financial risk in sharia bank.

Keywords: Sharia banks, disclosure of risk financial, non performing financing, financing deposit ratio, operating expenses and operating revenue, net income margin

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Authors: Mehrnoosh Abouzari, Shahrokh Sahraei

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Today, with the increase in quantity and quality and variety of crimes, the discussion of crime prevention has faced a serious challenge that human resources alone and with traditional methods will not be effective. One of the developments in the modern world is the presence of artificial intelligence in various fields, including criminal law. In fact, the use of artificial intelligence in criminal investigations and fighting crime is a necessity in today's world. The use of artificial intelligence is far beyond and even separate from other technologies in the struggle against crime. Second, its application in criminal science is different from the discussion of prevention and it comes to the prediction of crime. Crime prevention in terms of the three factors of the offender, the offender and the victim, following a change in the conditions of the three factors, based on the perception of the criminal being wise, and therefore increasing the cost and risk of crime for him in order to desist from delinquency or to make the victim aware of self-care and possibility of exposing him to danger or making it difficult to commit crimes. While the presence of artificial intelligence in the field of combating crime and social damage and dangers, like an all-seeing eye, regardless of time and place, it sees the future and predicts the occurrence of a possible crime, thus prevent the occurrence of crimes. The purpose of this article is to collect and analyze the studies conducted on the use of artificial intelligence in predicting and preventing crime. How capable is this technology in predicting crime and preventing it? The results have shown that the artificial intelligence technologies in use are capable of predicting and preventing crime and can find patterns in the data set. find large ones in a much more efficient way than humans. In crime prediction and prevention, the term artificial intelligence can be used to refer to the increasing use of technologies that apply algorithms to large sets of data to assist or replace police. The use of artificial intelligence in our debate is in predicting and preventing crime, including predicting the time and place of future criminal activities, effective identification of patterns and accurate prediction of future behavior through data mining, machine learning and deep learning, and data analysis, and also the use of neural networks. Because the knowledge of criminologists can provide insight into risk factors for criminal behavior, among other issues, computer scientists can match this knowledge with the datasets that artificial intelligence uses to inform them.

Keywords: artificial intelligence, criminology, crime, prevention, prediction

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Authors: Philippe Dillien, Patrice Forget, Harald Engel, Olivier Cornu, Marc De Kock, Jean Cyr Yombi

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Introduction: Hip fracture precedes commonly death in elderly people. Identification of high-risk patients may contribute to target patients in whom optimal management, resource allocation and trials efficiency is needed. The aim of this study is to construct a predictive score of mortality after hip fracture on the basis of the objective prognostic factors available: Neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), age, and sex. C-Reactive Protein (CRP), is also considered as an alternative to the NLR. Patients and methods: After the IRB approval, we analyzed our prospective database including 286 consecutive patients with hip fracture. A score was constructed combining age (1 point per decade above 74 years), sex (1 point for males), and NLR at postoperative day+5 (1 point if >5). A receiver-operating curve (ROC) curve analysis was performed. Results: From the 286 patients included, 235 were analyzed (72 males and 163 females, 30.6%/69.4%), with a median age of 84 (range: 65 to 102) years, mean NLR values of 6.47+/-6.07. At one year, 82/280 patients died (29.3%). Graphical analysis and log-rank test confirm a highly statistically significant difference (P<0.001). Performance analysis shows an AUC of 0.72 [95%CI 0.65-0.79]. CRP shows no advantage on NLR. Conclusion: We have developed a score based on age, sex and the NLR to predict the risk of mortality at one year in elderly patients after surgery for a hip fracture. After external validation, it may be included in clinical practice as in clinical research to stratify the risk of postoperative mortality.

Keywords: neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, hip fracture, postoperative mortality, medical and health sciences

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Authors: Bright Annang Baah

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Evaluating public perceptions of climate change risk and the elements that impact them has been shown to be critical in developing support for climate change action. Previous research has found a variety of elements, including the experience of extreme weather events, that impact public perceptions and worries about climate change. However, little is known about the public's perception of climate change risks and the variables that influence them in developing countries. Using a household survey, this study attempted to evaluate respondents' risk perceptions of climate change, as well as the impact of flooding experience on such beliefs. The findings demonstrate that flood victims have a greater risk perception and are more concerned about climate change than non-victims. Concerns regarding the effects of climate change, on the other hand, were found to be the lowest when compared to other pressing challenges confronting the country. This study's findings contribute to the understanding of climate change risk perception and the impact of extreme weather events from the perspective of a developing nation.

Keywords: climate change risk perception, harsh weather, perceived concern, Accra, Ghana

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Authors: Marco F. Benaglia, Mei H. Chen, Kune M. Tsai, Chia H. Hung

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As societal and family structures, consumer dietary habits, and awareness about food safety and quality continue to evolve in most developed countries, the demand for refrigerated and frozen foods has been growing, and the issues related to their preservation have gained increasing attention. A well-established cold chain logistics system is essential to avoid any temperature abuse; therefore, assessing potential disruptions in the operational processes of cold chain logistics centers becomes pivotal. This study preliminarily employs HACCP to find disruption factors in cold chain logistics centers that may cause temperature abuse. Then, concept mapping is applied: selected experts engage in brainstorming sessions to identify any further factors. The panel consists of ten experts, including four from logistics and home delivery, two from retail distribution, one from the food industry, two from low-temperature logistics centers, and one from the freight industry. Disruptions include equipment-related aspects, human factors, management aspects, and process-related considerations. The areas of observation encompass freezer rooms, refrigerated storage areas, loading docks, sorting areas, and vehicle parking zones. The experts also categorize the disruption factors based on perceived similarities and build a similarity matrix. Each factor is evaluated for its impact, frequency, and investment importance. Next, multiple scale analysis, cluster analysis, and other methods are used to analyze these factors. Simultaneously, key disruption factors are identified based on their impact and frequency, and, subsequently, the factors that companies prioritize and are willing to invest in are determined by assessing investors’ risk aversion behavior. Finally, Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) is applied to verify the risk patterns. 66 disruption factors are found and categorized into six clusters: (1) "Inappropriate Use and Maintenance of Hardware and Software Facilities", (2) "Inadequate Management and Operational Negligence", (3) "Product Characteristics Affecting Quality and Inappropriate Packaging", (4) "Poor Control of Operation Timing and Missing Distribution Processing", (5) "Inadequate Planning for Peak Periods and Poor Process Planning", and (6) "Insufficient Cold Chain Awareness and Inadequate Training of Personnel". This study also identifies five critical factors in the operational processes of cold chain logistics centers: "Lack of Personnel’s Awareness Regarding Cold Chain Quality", "Personnel Not Following Standard Operating Procedures", "Personnel’s Operational Negligence", "Management’s Inadequacy", and "Lack of Personnel’s Knowledge About Cold Chain". The findings show that cold chain operators prioritize prevention and improvement efforts in the "Inappropriate Use and Maintenance of Hardware and Software Facilities" cluster, particularly focusing on the factors of "Temperature Setting Errors" and "Management’s Inadequacy". However, through the application of CPT theory, this study reveals that companies are not usually willing to invest in the improvement of factors related to the "Inappropriate Use and Maintenance of Hardware and Software Facilities" cluster due to its low occurrence likelihood, but they acknowledge the severity of the consequences if it does occur. Hence, the main implication is that the key disruption factors in cold chain logistics centers’ processes are associated with personnel issues; therefore, comprehensive training, periodic audits, and the establishment of reasonable incentives and penalties for both new employees and managers may significantly reduce disruption issues.

Keywords: concept mapping, cold chain, HACCP, cumulative prospect theory

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Authors: Lina Dagilienė

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The article explores the impact of normative institutional factors on the development of sustainability reporting. The vast majority of research in the scientific literature focuses on mandatory institutional factors, i.e. how public institutions and market regulators affect sustainability reporting. Meanwhile, there is lack of empirical data for the impact of normative institutional factors. The effect of normative factors in this paper is based on the role of non-governmental organizations (NGO) and institutional theory. The case of Global Compact Local Network in the developing country was examined. The research results revealed that in the absence of regulated factors, companies were not active with regard to social disclosures; they presented non-systemized social information of a descriptive nature. Only 10% of sustainability reports were prepared using the GRI methodology. None of the reports were assured by third parties.

Keywords: institutional theory, normative, sustainability reporting, Global Compact Local Network

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Authors: Chang-Fa Liu, Yi-Ting Wang, Yuan Liu, Hai-Feng Wei, Lei Fang, Jin Li

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Heavy metals in sediments can cause adverse ecological effects while it exceeds a given criteria. The present study investigated sediment environmental quality, pollutant enrichment, ecological risk, and source identification for copper, cadmium, lead, zinc, mercury, and arsenic in the sediments collected from tidal flat marsh of Shuangtai estuary, China. The arithmetic mean integrated pollution index, geometric mean integrated pollution index, fuzzy integrated pollution index, and principal component score were used to characterize sediment environmental quality; fuzzy similarity and geo-accumulation Index were used to evaluate pollutant enrichment; correlation matrix, principal component analysis, and cluster analysis were used to identify source of pollution; environmental risk index and potential ecological risk index were used to assess ecological risk. The environmental qualities of sediment are classified to very low degree of contamination or low contamination. The similar order to element background of soil in the Liaohe plain is region of Sanjiaozhou, Honghaitan, Sandaogou, Xiaohe by pollutant enrichment analysis. The source identification indicates that correlations are significantly among metals except between copper and cadmium. Cadmium, lead, zinc, mercury, and arsenic will be clustered in the same clustering as the first principal component. Copper will be clustered as second principal component. The environmental risk assessment level will be scaled to no risk in the studied area. The order of potential ecological risk is As > Cd > Hg > Cu > Pb > Zn.

Keywords: ecological risk assessment, heavy metals, sediment, marsh, Shuangtai estuary

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Authors: Jonas Hinker, Lisa Zumholz, Johanna M. A. Myrzik

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Despite strong efforts by the German government to make a transition to higher quality level of building stocks, the rate of renovation continues to remain below the proclaimed level of 2%. As the mandatory standards for residential retrofits are well-balanced in such a way that strict adherence to them guarantees profit from the investment, it becomes difficult to explain the reasons why there are so many people hesitant with their investments. Risks and transaction costs can be understood as socio-technical boundaries and have to be taken into consideration to be able to understand why a worthwhile investment is postponed or rejected. This paper therefore presents a method for investment analyses that is focused on such socio-technical constraints, which helps to reveal the strongest misconceptions of home owners. By depicting sensitivities and risk factors in an integrated and impartial way, such a tool can be utilized by home owners to address reservations and misunderstandings. In the end, this leads to an exploitation of smaller energy efficiency measures that makes up a big demand reduction in the residential sector altogether.

Keywords: energy refurbishment, investment analysis, residential buildings, risk-aware investment strategy

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Authors: Franziska Köhler-Dauner, Inka Mayer, Lara Hart, Ute Ziegenhain, Jörg M. Fegert

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Preventive isolation and social distancing strategies during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic have confronted families with a variety of different restrictions and stresses. Especially during this stressful time, children need a stable parental home to avoid developmental disorders. Additional risk factors such as maternal childhood abuse and neglect (CM) experiences may influence mothers' psychosomatic health (pG) and children's physical well-being (kW) during times of increased stress. Our aim was to analyse the interaction between maternal CM, maternal pG and children's kW during the pandemic. Mothers from a well-documented birth cohort to study transgenerational transmission of CM, were included in an online 'pandemic' survey assessing maternal pG and children's physical health during the pandemic. Our mediation analysis showed a significant positive association between the extent of maternal CM experiences, mothers' psychosomatic symptoms and their children's kW. Maternal psychosomatic symptoms significantly mediate the interaction between CM and children's kW; the direct effect remains non-significant when maternal psychosomatic symptoms are included as mediators. Maternal CM appears to be a relevant risk factor for maternal pG and children's kW during the pandemic. Maternal CM experiences seem to influence the way parents cope with stressful situations and increase the risk of suffering from depressive symptoms. The latter also affect their children's kW. Our findings underline the importance of carefully assessing the specific situation of families with children and offering individually adapted help to help families survive the pandemic.

Keywords: pandemic, maternal health, child health, abuse, neglect, maternal experiences

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Authors: Najeeb Ullah Khan

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Background: The receptor activator NF-κβ ligand (RANKL) and Osteoprotegerin (OPG) polymorphisms have been associated with the progression of breast cancer to bone metastasis. Here, we aimed to investigate the association of RANKL and OPG gene polymorphism with breast to bone metastasis in the Pashtun population, Pakistan. Methods: Genomic DNA was obtained from all the study subjects (106 breast cancer, 58 breast to bone metastasis, and 51 healthy controls). RANKL (rs9533156) and OPG (rs2073618, rs3102735) polymorphisms were genotyped using Tetra-ARMS PCR. Results: Our results indicated that the frequencies of OPG (rs3102735) risk allele and genotypes carrying risk allele in breast cancer vs healthy control (C- p=0.005; CC- p=0.0208; TC- p=0.0181), bone metastasis vs healthy control (C- p=0.0211; CC- p=0.0153; TC- p=0.0775), and breast cancer vs breast to bone metastasis (C- p=0.0001; CC- p=0.0001; TC- p=0.001) were found significantly associated with disease risk. However, there was no significant association observed for OPG (rs2073618) risk allele and risk allele containing genotypes in all study groups. Similarly, RANKL (rs9533156) risk alleles and corresponding genotypes in breast cancer vs healthy control (C- p=0.0001; CC- p=0.0001; TC- p=0.0084), bone metastasis vs healthy control (C- p=0.0001; CC- p=0.0001; TC- p=0.5593), and breast cancer vs breast to bone metastasis (C- p=0.0185; CC- p=0.6077; TC- p=0.1436) showed significant association except for the risk allele carrying genotypes in breast cancer to bone metastasis (TC, p=0.1436; CC, p=0.6077). Conclusion: OPG (rs3102735) and RANKL (rs9533156) showed significant association with breast to bone metastasis, while OPG (rs2073618) didn’t show a significant association with breast to bone metastasis in Pashtun population of Pakistan. However, more investigation will be required to disseminate the results while gene sequencing or whole-exome sequencing.

Keywords: breast cancer, bone metastasis, OPG, RANKL, polymorphism

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Authors: Alicja Reuben, Amira Annabi

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In this paper, we explore the relationship between the selection of valuation techniques by investment banks and the banks’ risk perceptions and performance in the context of the theory of performativity. We use inferential statistics to study these relationships by building a unique dataset based on the disclosure of 12 investment banks’ 2012-2015 annual financial statements. Moreover, we create two constructs, namely intensity of use and risk perception. We measure the intensity of use as a frequency metric of how often a particular bank adopts valuation techniques for a particular asset or liability. We measure risk perception based on disclosed ranges of values for unobservable inputs. Our results are twofold: we find a significant negative correlation between (1) intensity of use and investment bank performance and (2) intensity of use and risk perception. These results indicate that a performative process takes place, and the valuation techniques are enacting their environment.

Keywords: language, linguistics, performativity, financial techniques

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Authors: A. Elbaz, K. Spang

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Infrastructure projects are often subjected to delays and cost overruns and mistakenly described as unsuccessful projects. These projects have many peculiarities such as public attention, impact on the environment, subjected to special regulations, etc. They also deal with several stakeholders with different motivations and face unique risks. With this in mind we need to reconsider our approach to manage them, define their success factors and implement these success factors. Infrastructure projects are not only lacking a unified meaning of project success or a definition of success factors, but also a clear method to implement these factors. This paper investigates this gap and introduces a concept to implement success factors in an efficient way, taking into consideration the specific characteristics of infrastructure projects. This concept consists of six enablers such as project organization, project team, project management workflow, contract management, communication and knowledge transfer and project documentations. These enablers allow other success factors to be efficiently implemented in projects. In conclusion, this paper provides project managers as well as company managers with a tool to define and implement success factors efficiently in their projects, along with upgrading their assets for the coming projects. This tool consists of processes and validated checklists to ensure the best use of company resources and knowledge. Due to the special features of infrastructure projects this tool will be tested in the German infrastructure market. However, it is meant to be adaptable to other markets and industries.

Keywords: infrastructure projects, operative success factors, project success, success factors, transportation projects

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Authors: Ali Kassem, Sharf Eldeen-Shazly, Alshemaa Lotfy

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Introduction: Contrast-induced nephropathy (CIN) has been the third leading cause of hospital-acquired renal failure. Patients with cardiac diseases are particularly at risk especially with repeated injections of contrast media. CIN is generally defined as an increase in serum creatinine concentration of > 0.5 mg/dL or 25% above baseline within 48 hours after contrast administration. Aim of work: To examine the frequency of CIN for patients undergoing cardiac catheterization at Sohag University Hospital (Upper Egypt) and to identify possible risk factors for CIN in these patients. Material and methods: The study included 104 patients with mean age 56.11 ±10.03, 64(61.5%) are males while 40(38.5%) are females. 44(42.3%) patients are diabetics, 43(41%) patients are hypertensive, 6(5.7%) patients have congestive heart failure, 69(66.3%) patients on statins, 74 (71.2 %) are on ACEIs or ARBs, 19(15.4%) are on metformin, 6 (5.8%) are on NSAIDs, 30(28.8%) are on diuretics. RESULTS: Patients were classified at the end of the study into two groups: Group A: Included 91 patients who did not develop CIN. Group B: Included 13 patients who developed CIN, of which serum creatinine raised > 0.5mg/dl in 6 patients and raised > 25% from the baseline after the procedure in 13 patients. The overall incidence of CIN was 12.5%. CIN increased with older age. There was an increase in the incidence of CIN in diabetic versus non-diabetic patients (20.5% and 6.7%) respectively. (p< 0.03). There was a highly significant increase in the incidence of CIN in patients with CHF versus those without CHF (100% and 71%) respectively, (P<0001). Patients on diuretics showed a significant increase in the incidence of CIN representing 61.5% of all patients who developed CIN. Conclusion: Older patients, diabetic patients, patients with CHF and patients on diuretics have higher risk of developing CIN during coronary catheterization and should receive reno-protective measures before contrast exposure.

Keywords: cardiac diseases, contrast-induced nephropathy, coronary catheterization, CIN

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Authors: Melkamu A. Zeru, Aweke A. Mitiku, Endashaw Amuka

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Background: Under-five mortality is the likelihood that a baby will pass away before turning exactly 5 years old, represented as a percentage per 1,000 live births. Exploring the spatial distribution and identifying the temporal pattern is important to reducing under-five child mortality globally, including in Ethiopia. Thus, this study aimed to identify the risk factors of under-five mortality and the spatiotemporal variation in Ethiopian administrative zones. Method: This study used the 2000-2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) data, which were collected using a two-stage sampling method. A total of 43,029 (10,873 in 2000, 9,861 in 2005, 11,654 in 2011, and 10,641 in 2016) weighted sample under-five child mortality was used. The space-time dynamic model was employed to account for spatial and time effects in 65 administrative zones in Ethiopia. Results: From the result of a general nesting spatial-temporal dynamic model, there was a significant space-time interaction effect [γ = -0.1444, 95 % CI (-0.6680, -0.1355)] for under-five mortality. The increase in the percentages of mothers illiteracy [𝛽 = 0.4501, 95% CI (0.2442, 0.6559)], not vaccinated[𝛽= 0.7681, 95% CI (0.5683, 0.9678)], unimproved water[𝛽= 0.5801, CI (0.3793, 0.7808)] were increased death rates for under five children while increased percentage of contraceptive use [𝛽= -0.6609, 95% CI (-0.8636, -0.4582)] and ANC visit > 4 times [𝛽= -0.1585, 95% CI(-0.1812, -0.1357)] were contributed to the decreased under-five mortality rate at the zone in Ethiopia. Conclusions: Even though the mortality rate for children under five has decreased over time, still there is still higher in different zones of Ethiopia. There exists spatial and temporal variation in under-five mortality among zones. Therefore, it is very important to consider spatial neighbourhoods and temporal context when aiming to avoid under-five mortality.

Keywords: under-five children mortality, space-time dynamic, spatiotemporal, Ethiopia

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Authors: Zubair Ahmad

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The aim of this study is to analyze the risks factors and issues with waste management in developing nations as barriers. Depending on their content and categorization, wastes are managed differently. Waste management strategies differ for liquid, solid, and organic wastes. The final stage of trash disposal entails procedures like burning, interment, recycling, and treatment. Due to the rising creation of solid waste, the growing urban population has a magnified impact on the environment and public health. All regions, but especially informal urban neighborhoods, tribal villages, and official rural settlements have a protracted backlog in waste services. Another significant impediment seen in the developing world is a lack of education and awareness of effective waste-management practices. Unauthorized dumpsites pose a serious risk to the environment since they could contain dangerous elements like radioactive, infectious, and toxic waste. Wealthier individuals are more inclined to think that their actions will have an impact on environmental problems and to act to address them. Waste managers need to take action to make sure the public is given information that is consistent with what they currently know. The results of the data analysis conducted with the aid of the various methodologies discussed in the preceding chapter are presented in this chapter by the researcher. Descriptive analysis has been used in research to determine whether or not there are relationships between variables and to determine the importance of the variables. According to a survey, there are no efforts being made to lessen the odor that garbage dump sites emit (in terms of treating or recycling the material placed at dumpsite) This might be the case since respondents only commented on the waste management conditions in their immediate surroundings and may not have fully understood the steps taken to resolve this issue.

Keywords: risk factor of waste material, lack of awareness, developing countries struggles, waste management

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