Search results for: extreme rainfall events
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 3352

Search results for: extreme rainfall events

2512 Prevalence of Adverse Events in Children and Adolescents on Antiretroviral Therapy: Examining the Pediatric Cohort in the Eastern Cape

Authors: Shannon Glaspy, Gerald Boon, Jack Lambert

Abstract:

Studies on AE of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) in children and adolescents are rare. The aim of this study is to observe the frequency of treatment limiting adverse drug reactions against years on ARVs and specific ARV regimen. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted in East London, South Africa. All patient files in the pediatric (0 – 18 years) ARV cohort were examined, selecting only those patients started on HAART. ARV regimen changes explicitly due to AE, age on ARV treatment onset, age of AE onset, and gender were extrapolated. Eligible subjects were obtained from patient folders, anonymized and cross-referenced with data obtained from electronic records. A total of 1120 patients [592 male (52.9%) and 528 female (47.1%)] were charted by incidence and year. Additional information was extrapolated in cases where the patient experienced lipodystrophy and lipoatrophy to include the number of years on ARVs prior to the onset of the AE. Results: Of the 1120 HIV infected children of the hospital cohort, a total of 105 (9.37%) AE (53.3% male) observed were deemed eligible for the study due to completeness of medical history and agreement between electronic records and paper files. The AE cited were as follows: lipoatrophy 62 (5.53% of all subjects), lipodystrophy 27 (2.41%), neuropathy 9 (0.8%), anemia 2 (0.17%), Steven Johnsons Syndrome 1 (0.08%), elevated LFTs 1 (0.8%), breast hypertrophy (0.08%), gastritis 1 (0.08%) and rash 1 (0.08%). The most prevalence ARV regimens associated with the onset of the AE are: D4T/3TC/EFV 72 cases (64.86% of all AE), D4T/3TC/LOPr 24 cases (21.62%). Lipoatrophy and lipodystrophy combined represent 84.76% (89 cases) of all adverse events documented in this cohort. Within the 60 cases of lipoatrophy, the average number of years on ARVs associated with an AE is 3.54, with 14 cases experiencing an AE between 0-2 years of HAART. Within the 29 cases of lipodystrophy, the average number of years on ARVs associated with an AE is 3.89, with 4 cases experiencing an AE between 0-2 years on HAART. The regimen D4T/3TC/EFV is associated with 43 cases (71.66%) of lipoatrophy and 21 cases (72.41%) of lipodystrophy. D4T/3TC/LOPr is associated with 15 cases (25%) of lipoatrophy and 7 cases (24.14%) of lipodystrophy. The frequency of AE associated with ARV regimens could be misrepresented due to prevalence of different 1st line regimens which were not captured in this study, particularly with the systematic change of 1st line drugs from D4T to ABC in 2010. Conclusion: In this descriptive study we found a 9.37% prevalence of AE were significant enough to be treatment limiting among our cohort. Lipoatrophy accounted for 59.04% of all documented AE. Overall, D4T/3TC/EFV was associated with 64.86% of all AE, 71.66% of lipoatrophy cases and 72.41% of lipodystrophy cases.

Keywords: ARV, adverse events, HAART, pediatric

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2511 Adaptation of Extra Early Maize 'Zea Mays L.' Varieties for Climate Change Mitigation in South Western Nigeria

Authors: Akinwumi Omotayo, Badu-B Apraku, Joseph Olobasola, Petra Abdul Saghir, Yinka Sobowale

Abstract:

In southwestern Nigeria, climate change has led to loss of at least two months of rainfall. Consequently, only one cycle of maize can now be grown because of the shorter duration of rainy season as against two cycles in the past. The Early and Extra-early maturing varieties of maize were originally developed for the semi-arid and arid zones of West and Central Africa where there are seasonal challenges of water threatening optimum performance of the traditional maize grown, which are commonly late in maturity (115 to 120 days). The early varieties of maize mature in 90 to 95 days; while the Extra-Early maize varieties reach physiological maturity in less than 90 days. It was broadly hypothesized that the extra early varieties of maize could mitigate the effects of climate change in southwestern Nigeria with higher levels of rainfall by reinstating the original two cycles of rain-fed maize crop. Trials were therefore carried out in southwestern Nigeria on the possibility of adapting the extra early maize to mitigate the effects of climate change. The trial was the Mother/Baby design. The mother trial involves the evaluation of extra-early varieties following ideal recommendations and closely supervised centrally at the University research farm and the Agricultural Development Programmes (ADPs). This requires farmers to observe and evaluate the technology and the management regime meant to precede the second stage of evaluation at several satellite farmers field managed by selected farmers. The Baby Trial is expected to provide a realistic assessment of the technology by farmers in their own environment. A stratified selection of thirty farmers for the Baby Trial ensured appropriate representation across the different categories of the farming population by age and gender. Data from the trials indicate that extra early maize can be grown in two cycles rain fed in south west Nigeria and a third and fourth cycle could be obtained with irrigation. However the long duration varieties outyielded the extra early maize in both the mother and baby trials. When harvested green, the extra early maize served as source of food between March and May when there was scarcity of food. This represents a major advantage. The study recommends that further work needs to be done to improve the yield of extra early maize to encourage farmers to adopt.

Keywords: adaptation, climate change, extra early, maize varieties, mitigation

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2510 Mobile Application to Generate Automate Plan for Tourist in The South and West of Saudi Arabia, Saferk

Authors: Hanan M. Alghamdi, Kholud E. Alsalami, Manal I. Alshaikhi, Nouf M. Alsalami, Sara A. Awad, Ruqaya A. Alrabei

Abstract:

Tourism in Saudi Arabia is one of the emerging sectors with rapid growth. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is characterized by its wonderful and historical areas, which constitute important cultural and tourist landmarks. These landmarks attract the attention of the government of Saudi Arabia; hence the improvement of the tourism sector becomes one of the important axes of Saudi Arabia's vision 2030. There is a need to enhance the tourist experience by facilitating the tourism process for visitors to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This project aims to design an application to serve domestic tourists and visitors from outside the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This application will contain an automated tourist generate plan service by sentiment analysis of comments in Google Map using Lexicon for method Rule-based approach. There are thirteen regions in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The regions supported in this application will be Makkah and Asir regions. According to the output of the sentiment analysis, the application will recommend restaurants and cafes, activities (parks, museums) and shopping (shopping centers) in the generated plan. After that, the system will show the user a drop-down list of “Mega-events in Saudi Arabia” containing a link to the site of events in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. and “important information for you” public decency regulations.

Keywords: tourist automated plan, sentiment analysis, comments in google map, tourism in Saudi Arabia

Procedia PDF Downloads 143
2509 Exercise in Extreme Conditions: Leg Cooling and Fat/Carbohydrate Utilization

Authors: Anastasios Rodis

Abstract:

Background: Case studies of walkers, climbers, and campers exposed to cold and wet conditions without limb water/windproof protection revealed experiences of muscle weakness and fatigue. It is reasonable to assume that a part of the fatigue could occur due to an alteration in substrate utilization, since reduction of performance in extreme cold conditions, may partially be explained by higher anaerobic glycolysis, reflecting higher carbohydrate oxidation and an increase accumulation rate of blood lactate. The aim of this study was to assess the effects of pre-exercise lower limb cooling on substrate utilization rate during sub-maximal exercise. Method: Six male university students (mean (SD): age, 21.3 (1.0) yr; maximal oxygen uptake (V0₂ max), 49.6 (3.6) ml.min⁻¹; and percentage of body fat, 13.6 (2.5) % were examined in random order after either 30min cold water (12°C) immersion utilized as the cooling strategy up to the gluteal fold, or under control conditions (no precooling), with tests separated by minimum of 7 days. Exercise consisted of 60min cycling at 50% V0₂ max, in a thermoneutral environment of 20°C. Subjects were also required to record a diet diary over the 24hrs prior to the each trial. Means (SD) for the three macronutrients during the 1 day prior to each trial (expressed as a percentage of total energy) 52 (3) % carbohydrate, 31 (4) % fat, and 17 (± 2) % protein. Results: The following responses to lower limb cooling relative to control trial during exercise were: 1) Carbohydrate (CHO) oxidation, and blood lactate (Bₗₐc) concentration were significantly higher (P < 0.05); 2) rectal temperature (Tᵣₑc) was significantly higher (P < 0.05), but skin temperature was significantly lower (P < 0.05); no significant differences were found in blood glucose (Bg), heart rate (HR) and oxygen consumption (V0₂). Discussion: These data suggested that lower limb cooling prior to submaximal exercise will shift metabolic processes from Fat oxidation to CHO oxidation. This shift from Fat to CHO oxidation will probably have important implications in the surviving scenario, since people facing accidental localized cooling of their limbs either through wading/falling in cold water or snow even if they do not perform high intensity activity, they have to rely on CHO availability.

Keywords: exercise in wet conditions, leg cooling, outdoors exercise, substrate utilization

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2508 Wrong Site Surgery Should Not Occur In This Day And Age!

Authors: C. Kuoh, C. Lucas, T. Lopes, I. Mechie, J. Yoong, W. Yoong

Abstract:

For all surgeons, there is one preventable but still highly occurring complication – wrong site surgeries. They can have potentially catastrophic, irreversible, or even fatal consequences on patients. With the exponential development of microsurgery and the use of advanced technological tools, the consequences of operating on the wrong side, anatomical part, or even person is seen as the most visible and destructive of all surgical errors and perhaps the error that is dreaded by most clinicians as it threatens their licenses and arouses feelings of guilt. Despite the implementation of the WHO surgical safety checklist more than a decade ago, the incidence of wrong-site surgeries remains relatively high, leading to tremendous physical and psychological repercussions for the clinicians involved, as well as a financial burden for the healthcare institution. In this presentation, the authors explore various factors which can lead to wrong site surgery – a combination of environmental and human factors and evaluate their impact amongst patients, practitioners, their families, and the medical industry. Major contributing factors to these “never events” include deviations from checklists, excessive workload, and poor communication. Two real-life cases are discussed, and systems that can be implemented to prevent these errors are highlighted alongside lessons learnt from other industries. The authors suggest that reinforcing speaking-up, implementing medical professional trainings, and higher patient’s involvements can potentially improve safety in surgeries and electrosurgeries.

Keywords: wrong side surgery, never events, checklist, workload, communication

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2507 Management and Genetic Characterization of Local Sheep Breeds for Better Productive and Adaptive Traits

Authors: Sonia Bedhiaf-Romdhani

Abstract:

The sheep (Ovis aries) was domesticated, approximately 11,000 years ago (YBP), in the Fertile Crescent from Asian Mouflon (Ovis Orientalis). The Northern African (NA) sheep is 7,000 years old, represents a remarkable diversity of sheep populations reared under traditional and low input farming systems (LIFS) over millennia. The majority of small ruminants in developing countries are encountered in low input production systems and the resilience of local communities in rural areas is often linked to the wellbeing of small ruminants. Regardless of the rich biodiversity encountered in sheep ecotypes there are four main sheep breeds in the country with 61,6 and 35.4 percents of Barbarine (fat tail breed) and Queue Fine de l’Ouest (thin tail breed), respectively. Phoenicians introduced the Barbarine sheep from the steppes of Central Asia in the Carthaginian period, 3000 years ago. The Queue Fine de l’Ouest is a thin-tailed meat breed heavily concentrated in the Western and the central semi-arid regions. The Noire de Thibar breed, involving mutton-fine wool producing animals, has been on the verge of extinction, it’s a composite black coated sheep breed found in the northern sub-humid region because of its higher nutritional requirements and non-tolerance of the prevailing harsher condition. The D'Man breed, originated from Morocco, is mainly located in the southern oases of the extreme arid ecosystem. A genetic investigation of Tunisian sheep breeds using a genome-wide scan of approximately 50,000 SNPs was performed. Genetic analysis of relationship between breeds highlighted the genetic differentiation of Noire de Thibar breed from the other local breeds, reflecting the effect of past events of introgression of European gene pool. The Queue Fine de l’Ouest breed showed a genetic heterogeneity and was close to Barbarine. The D'Man breed shared a considerable gene flow with the thin-tailed Queue Fine de l'Ouest breed. Native small ruminants breeds, are capable to be efficiently productive if essential ingredients and coherent breeding schemes are implemented and followed. Assessing the status of genetic variability of native sheep breeds could provide important clues for research and policy makers to devise better strategies for the conservation and management of genetic resources.

Keywords: sheep, farming systems, diversity, SNPs.

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2506 The Utilisation of Storytelling as a Therapeutic Intervention by Educational Psychologists to Address Behavioural Challenges Relating to Grief of Adolescent Clients

Authors: Laila Jeebodh Desai

Abstract:

Storytelling as a therapeutic intervention entails the narrating of events by externalising emotions, thoughts and responses to life-changing events such as loss and grief. This creates the opportunity for clients to engage with psychologists by projecting various beliefs and challenges, such as grief, through a range of therapeutic modalities. This study conducts an inquiry into the ways in which storytelling can be utilised by educational psychologists with adolescent clients to address behavioural challenges relating to grief. This qualitative study therefore aims to facilitate an understanding of the use and benefits of storytelling as a therapeutic intervention. This has been achieved by examining interviews with four educational psychologists who have utilised storytelling as a therapeutic intervention with adolescent clients to overcome challenges with grief. The participants (educational psychologists) discussed case studies during interviews, which provided evidence of their practical administration of storytelling as a therapeutic intervention incorporating integrated theoretical approaches through the use of blended therapeutic techniques. Behavioural challenges relating to grief were also predominant in the case study information provided by the participants. The participants further confirmed that the term ‘grief’ included different types of loss that were experienced among adolescent clients. The implications and recommendations of the findings encouraged the utilisation of storytelling as a therapeutic intervention with adolescent clients in addressing behavioural challenges related to grief, based on the outcome of the case studies discussed by the participants.

Keywords: storytelling, therapeutic intervention, adolescents, grief

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2505 Rendering of Indian History: A Study Based on Select Graphic Novels

Authors: Akhila Sara Varughese

Abstract:

In the postmodern society, visual narratives became an emerging genre in the field of literature. Graphic literature focuses on the literal and symbolic layer of interpretation. The most salient feature of graphic literature is its exploration of the public history of events and life narratives. The Indian graphic literature re-interprets the canon, style and the form of texts in Indian Writing in English and it demands a new literacy and the structure of the English literature. With the help of visual-verbal language, the graphic narratives discuss various facets of contemporary India. Graphic novels have firmly identified itself with the art of storytelling because of its capability of expressing human experiences to the most. In the textual novels, the author usually deserts the imagination of the readers, but in the case of graphic narratives, due to the presence of visual elements, the interpretation becomes simpler. India is the second most populous country in the world with a long tradition of history and culture. Indian literature always tries to reconstruct Indian history in various modes of representation. The present paper focuses on the fictional articulation of Indian history through the graphic narratives and analyses how some historical events in India portrays. The paper also traces the differences in rendering the history in graphic novels with that of textual novels. The paper discusses how much the blending of words and images helps in represent the Indian history by analyzing the graphic novels like Kashmir Pending by Naseer Ahmed, Delhi Calm by Vishwajyoti Ghosh and Munnu by Malik Sajad.

Keywords: graphic novels, Indian history, representation, visual-verbal literacy

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2504 An Assessment of Adverse Events Following Immunization Reporting Pattern of Selected Vaccines in VigiAccess

Authors: Peter Yamoah, Frasia Oosthuizen

Abstract:

Introduction: Reporting of Adverse Events Following Immunization continues to be a challenge. Pharmacovigilance centers throughout the world are mandated by the WHO to submit AEFI reports from various countries to a large pool of adverse drug reaction electronic database called Vigibase. Despite the relevant information of AEFI in Vigibase, it is unavailable to the general public. However, the WHO has an alternative website called VigiAccess which is an open access website serving as a repository of reported adverse drug reactions and AEFIs. The aim of the study was to ascertain the reporting pattern of a number of commonly used vaccines in VigiAccess. Methods: VigiAccess was thoroughly searched on the 5th of February 2018 for AEFI reports of measles vaccine, oral polio vaccine (OPV), yellow fever vaccine, pneumococcal vaccine, rotavirus vaccine, meningococcal vaccine, tetanus vaccine and tuberculosis (BCG) vaccine. These were reports from all pharmacovigilance centers in the world from the time they joined the WHO drug monitoring program. Results: After a thorough search in VigiAccess, there were 9,062 measles vaccine AEFIs, 185,829 OPV AEFIs, 24,577 yellow fever vaccine AEFIs, 317,208 pneumococcal vaccine AEFIs, 73,513 rotavirus vaccine AEFIs, 145,447 meningococcal vaccine AEFIs, 22,781 tetanus vaccine AEFIs and 35,556 BCG vaccine AEFIs. Conclusion: The study revealed that out of the eight vaccines studied, pneumococcal vaccines are associated with the highest number of AEFIs whilst measles vaccines were associated with the least AEFIs.

Keywords: vaccines, adverse reactions, VigiAccess, adverse event reporting

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2503 זכור (Remember): An Analysis of Art as a Reflection of Sexual and Gendered Violence against Jewish Women during the Pogroms (1919-1920S) And the Nazi Era (1933-1943)

Authors: Isabella B. Davidman

Abstract:

Violence used against Jewish women in both the Eastern European pogroms and during the Nazi era was specifically gendered, targeting their female identity and dignity of womanhood. Not only did these acts of gendered violence dehumanize Jewish women, but they also hurt the Jewish community as a whole. The devastating sexual violence that women endured during the pogroms and the Nazi era caused profound trauma. Out of shame and fear, silence about women’s experiences of sexual abuse manifests in forms that words cannot translate. Women have turned to art and other means of storytelling to convey their female experiences in visual and non-verbal ways. Therefore, this paper aims to address the historical accounts of gendered violence against Jewish women during the pogroms and Nazi era, as well as art that reflects upon the female experience, in order to understand the emotional impact resulting from these events. To analyze the artwork, a feminist analysis was used to understand the intersection of gender with the other systems of inequality, such as systemic anti-semitism, in women’s lives; this ultimately explained the ways in which cultural productions undermine and reinforce the political and social oppression of women by exploring how art confronts the exploitation of women's bodies. By analyzing the art in the context of specific acts of violence, such as public rape, as a strategic weapon, we are able to understand women’s experiences and how these experiences, in turn, challenged their womanhood. Additionally, these atrocities, which often occurred in the public space, were dismissed and forgotten due to the social stigma of rape. In this sense, the experiences of women in pogroms and the Nazi era were both highly unacknowledged and forgotten. Therefore, the art that was produced during those time periods, as well as those after those events, gives voice to the profound silence on the narratives of Jewish women. Sexual violence is a weapon of war used to cause physical and psychological destruction, not only as a product of war. In both the early twentieth-century pogroms and the Holocaust, the sexual violence that Jewish women endured was fundamentally the same: the rape of Jewish women became a focal target in the theater of violence– women were not raped because they were women, but specifically, because they were Jewish women. Although the events of the pogroms and the Holocaust are in the past, the art that serves as testimony to the experience of Jewish women remains an everlasting reminder of the gendered violence that occurred. Even though covert expressions, such as an embroidered image of a bird eating an apple, the artwork gives voice to the many silenced victims of sexualized and gendered violence.

Keywords: gendered violence, holocaust, Nazi era, pogroms

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2502 Combining the Deep Neural Network with the K-Means for Traffic Accident Prediction

Authors: Celso L. Fernando, Toshio Yoshii, Takahiro Tsubota

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Understanding the causes of a road accident and predicting their occurrence is key to preventing deaths and serious injuries from road accident events. Traditional statistical methods such as the Poisson and the Logistics regressions have been used to find the association of the traffic environmental factors with the accident occurred; recently, an artificial neural network, ANN, a computational technique that learns from historical data to make a more accurate prediction, has emerged. Although the ability to make accurate predictions, the ANN has difficulty dealing with highly unbalanced attribute patterns distribution in the training dataset; in such circumstances, the ANN treats the minority group as noise. However, in the real world data, the minority group is often the group of interest; e.g., in the road traffic accident data, the events of the accident are the group of interest. This study proposes a combination of the k-means with the ANN to improve the predictive ability of the neural network model by alleviating the effect of the unbalanced distribution of the attribute patterns in the training dataset. The results show that the proposed method improves the ability of the neural network to make a prediction on a highly unbalanced distributed attribute patterns dataset; however, on an even distributed attribute patterns dataset, the proposed method performs almost like a standard neural network.

Keywords: accident risks estimation, artificial neural network, deep learning, k-mean, road safety

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2501 Application of ANN and Fuzzy Logic Algorithms for Runoff and Sediment Yield Modelling of Kal River, India

Authors: Mahesh Kothari, K. D. Gharde

Abstract:

The ANN and fuzzy logic (FL) models were developed to predict the runoff and sediment yield for catchment of Kal river, India using 21 years (1991 to 2011) rainfall and other hydrological data (evaporation, temperature and streamflow lag by one and two day) and 7 years data for sediment yield modelling. The ANN model performance improved with increasing the input vectors. The fuzzy logic model was performing with R value more than 0.95 during developmental stage and validation stage. The comparatively FL model found to be performing well to ANN in prediction of runoff and sediment yield for Kal river.

Keywords: transferred function, sigmoid, backpropagation, membership function, defuzzification

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2500 World’s Fair (EXPO) Induced Heritage

Authors: Işılay Tiarnagh Sheridan

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World EXPO, short version for the “exposition”, is a large universal public exhibition held since 1851. Within the 164 years, it was organized 34 times in 22 cities and as a result it has given birth to its very own culture unlike most of other international events. It has an outstanding power in transforming the places, in which it is held, into trademarks via changes in their urban tissues. For that, it is widely remembered with its cities instead of its countries. Within the scope of this change, some constructions were planned to be temporary, some planned to be permanent and some were thought to be temporary but kept afterwards becoming important monuments such as the Crystal Palace of London (though it was destroyed later by a fire) and the Eiffel Tower of Paris. These examples are the most prominent names upon considering World EXPOs. Yet, there are so many other legacies of these events within modern city fabric today that we don’t usually associate with its Expo history. Some of them are leading figures not only for the housing city but for other cities also, such as the first Metro line of Paris during 1900 World EXPO; some of them are listed as monuments of the cities such as Saint Louis Art Museum of 1904 World EXPO; some of them, like Melbourne Royal Exhibition Building of 1880 World’s EXPO, are among UNESCO World Heritage Sites and some of them are the masterpieces of modern architecture such as the famous Barcelona Pavilion, German pavilion of the 1929 World’s EXPO, of Ludwig Mies van der Rohe. Thus, the aim of this paper is to analyze the history of World’s EXPO and its eventual results in the birth of its own cultural heritage. Upon organizing these results, the paper aims to create a brief list of EXPO heritage monuments and sites so as to form a database for their further conservation needs.

Keywords: expo, heritage, world's fair, legacy

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2499 Management Strategies for Risk Events in Construction Industries during Economic Situation and COVID-19 Pandemic in Nigeria

Authors: Ezeabasili Chibuike Patrick

Abstract:

The complex situation of construction industries in Nigeria and the risk of failures involved includes cost overrun, time overrun, Corruption, Government influence, Subcontractor challenges, Political influence and Instability, Cultural differences, Human resources deficiencies, cash flow Challenges, foreign exchange issues, inadequate design, Safety, low productivity, late payment, Quality control issues, project management issues, Environmental issues, Force majeure Competition amongst others has made the industry prone to risk and failures. Good project management remains effective in improving decision-making, which minimizes these risk events. This study was done to address these project risks and good decision-making to avert them. A mixed-method approach to research was used to do this study. Data collected by questionnaires and interviews on thirty-two (32) construction professionals was used in analyses to aid the knowledge and management of risks that were identified. The study revealed that there is no good risk management expertise in Nigeria. Also, that the economic/political situation and the recent COVID-19 pandemic has added to the risk and poor management strategies. The contingency theory and cost has therefore surfaced to be the most strategic management method used to reduce these risk issues and they seem to be very effective.

Keywords: strategies, risk management, contingency theory, Nigeria

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2498 Risk of Fatal and Non-Fatal Coronary Heart Disease and Stroke Events among Adult Patients with Hypertension: Basic Markov Model Inputs for Evaluating Cost-Effectiveness of Hypertension Treatment: Systematic Review of Cohort Studies

Authors: Mende Mensa Sorato, Majid Davari, Abbas Kebriaeezadeh, Nizal Sarrafzadegan, Tamiru Shibru, Behzad Fatemi

Abstract:

Markov model, like cardiovascular disease (CVD) policy model based simulation, is being used for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of hypertension treatment. Stroke, angina, myocardial infarction (MI), cardiac arrest, and all-cause mortality were included in this model. Hypertension is a risk factor for a number of vascular and cardiac complications and CVD outcomes. Objective: This systematic review was conducted to evaluate the comprehensiveness of this model across different regions globally. Methods: We searched articles written in the English language from PubMed/Medline, Ovid/Medline, Embase, Scopus, Web of Science, and Google scholar with a systematic search query. Results: Thirteen cohort studies involving a total of 2,165,770 (1,666,554 hypertensive adult population and 499,226 adults with treatment-resistant hypertension) were included in this scoping review. Hypertension is clearly associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortality, unstable angina, stable angina, MI, heart failure (HF), sudden cardiac death, transient ischemic attack, ischemic stroke, subarachnoid hemorrhage, intracranial hemorrhage, peripheral arterial disease (PAD), and abdominal aortic aneurism (AAA). Association between HF and hypertension is variable across regions. Treatment resistant hypertension is associated with a higher relative risk of developing major cardiovascular events and all-cause mortality when compared with non-resistant hypertension. However, it is not included in the previous CVD policy model. Conclusion: The CVD policy model used can be used in most regions for the evaluation of the cost-effectiveness of hypertension treatment. However, hypertension is highly associated with HF in Latin America, the Caribbean, Eastern Europe, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore, it is important to consider HF in the CVD policy model for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of hypertension treatment in these regions. We do not suggest the inclusion of PAD and AAA in the CVD policy model for evaluating the cost-effectiveness of hypertension treatment due to a lack of sufficient evidence. Researchers should consider the effect of treatment-resistant hypertension either by including it in the basic model or during setting the model assumptions.

Keywords: cardiovascular disease policy model, cost-effectiveness analysis, hypertension, systematic review, twelve major cardiovascular events

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2497 Deep Reinforcement Learning for Advanced Pressure Management in Water Distribution Networks

Authors: Ahmed Negm, George Aggidis, Xiandong Ma

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With the diverse nature of urban cities, customer demand patterns, landscape topologies or even seasonal weather trends; managing our water distribution networks (WDNs) has proved a complex task. These unpredictable circumstances manifest as pipe failures, intermittent supply and burst events thus adding to water loss, energy waste and increased carbon emissions. Whilst these events are unavoidable, advanced pressure management has proved an effective tool to control and mitigate them. Henceforth, water utilities have struggled with developing a real-time control method that is resilient when confronting the challenges of water distribution. In this paper we use deep reinforcement learning (DRL) algorithms as a novel pressure control strategy to minimise pressure violations and leakage under both burst and background leakage conditions. Agents based on asynchronous actor critic (A2C) and recurrent proximal policy optimisation (Recurrent PPO) were trained and compared to benchmarked optimisation algorithms (differential evolution, particle swarm optimisation. A2C manages to minimise leakage by 32.48% under burst conditions and 67.17% under background conditions which was the highest performance in the DRL algorithms. A2C and Recurrent PPO performed well in comparison to the benchmarks with higher processing speed and lower computational effort.

Keywords: deep reinforcement learning, pressure management, water distribution networks, leakage management

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2496 Harvesting of Kinetic Energy of the Raindrops

Authors: K. C. R.Perera, V. P. C Dassanayake, B. M. Hapuwatte, B. G. Smapath

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This paper presents a methodology to harvest the kinetic energy of the raindrops using piezoelectric devices. In the study 1m×1m PVDF (Polyvinylidene fluoride) piezoelectric membrane, which is fixed by the four edges, is considered for the numerical simulation on deformation of the membrane due to the impact of the raindrops. Then according to the drop size of the rain, the simulation is performed classifying the rainfall types into three categories as light stratiform rain, moderate stratiform rain and heavy thundershower. The impact force of the raindrop is dependent on the terminal velocity of the raindrop, which is a function of raindrop diameter. The results were then analyzed to calculate the harvestable energy from the deformation of the piezoelectric membrane.

Keywords: raindrop, piezoelectricity, deformation, terminal velocity

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2495 The Impact of the Corona Virus Outbreak Crisis on Startups

Authors: Mohammad Mehdizadeh, Sara Miri

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Due to the recent events surrounding the global health crisis and the spread of the coronavirus (COVID-19), the activities of many businesses and start-up companies have been disrupted. It solves many economic problems and can reduce unemployment in countries because governments can take advantage of their potential without direct investment. However, with the help of their innovative ideas and new technologies, these companies can develop and grow the economy. But it is essential to consider that there will be no guarantee of their success in the event of unforeseen events, as the coronavirus outbreak in the last two years has seriously damaged these companies and, like other businesses, challenges and stagnation have started. The startup companies' challenge in the face of coronavirus begins with its impact on customers. Changing customer behavior can affect their products and distribution channels. On the other hand, to prevent countless losses in this crisis, startup companies require creative solutions to address challenges in various areas of human capital, supply chain management, sales and marketing, and so on. Therefore, all business leaders must consider and plan for the current crisis and the future; after overcoming these conditions and returning to regular business routines, it will no longer be an option, and new situations will prevail in a competitive environment. The essential strategies for developing and growing startups during the Coronavirus outbreak can be connecting with the global startup ecosystem, hosting webinars, providing podcasts and free question and answer sessions, mentoring services to growing teams, and consulting pointed out this to firms for digitalization.

Keywords: business, COVID-19, digitalization, startups

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2494 An Engineered Epidemic: Big Pharma's Role in the Opioid Crisis

Authors: Donna L. Roberts

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2019 marked 23 years since Purdue Pharma launched its flagship drug, OxyContin, that unleashed an unprecedented epidemic touching both celebrities and common citizens, metropolitan, suburbia and rural areas and all levels of socioeconomic status. From rural Appalachia to East LA individuals, families and communities have been devastated by a trajectory of addiction that often began with the legitimate prescription of a pain killer for anything from a tooth extraction to a sports injury to recovery from surgery or chronic arthritis. Far from being a serendipitous progression of events, the proliferation of this new breed of 'miracle drug' was instead a carefully crafted marketing program aimed at both the medical community and common citizens. This research represents and in-depth investigation of the evolution of the marketing, distribution and promotion of prescription opioids by pharmaceutical companies and its relationship to the propagation of the opioid crisis. Specifically, key components of Purdue Pharma’s aggressive marketing campaign, including its bonus system and sales incentives, were analyzed in the context of the sociopolitical environment that essential created the proverbial 'perfect storm' for the changing manner in which pain is treated in the U.S. The analyses of these series of events clearly indicate their role in first, the increase in prescription of opioids for non-terminal pain relief and subsequently, the incidence of related addiction, overdose, and death. Through this examination of the conditions that facilitated and maintained this drug crisis, perhaps we can begin to chart a course toward its resolution.

Keywords: addiction, opioid, opioid crisis, Purdue Pharma

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2493 West Nile Virus Outbreaks in Canada under Expected Climate Conditions

Authors: Jalila Jbilou, Salaheddine El Adlouni, Pierre Gosselin

Abstract:

Background: West Nile virus is increasingly an important public health issue in North America. In Canada, WVN was officially reported in Toronto and Montréal for the first time in 2001. During the last decade, several WNV events have been reported in several Canadian provinces. The main objective of the present study is to update the frequency of the climate conditions favorable to WNV outbreaks in Canada. Method: Statistical frequency analysis has been used to estimate the return period for climate conditions associated with WNV outbreaks for the 1961–2050 period. The best fit is selected through the Akaike Information Criterion, and the parameters are estimated using the maximum likelihood approach. Results: Results show that the climate conditions related to the 2002 event, for Montreal and Toronto, are becoming more frequent. For Saskatoon, the highest DD20 events recorded for the last few decades were observed in 2003 and 2007. The estimated return periods are 30 years and 70 years, respectively. Conclusion: The emergence of WNV was related to extremely high DD values in the summer. However, some exceptions may be related to several factors such as virus persistence, vector migration, and also improved diagnosis and reporting levels. It is clear that such climate conditions have become much more common in the last decade and will likely continue to do so over future decades.

Keywords: West Nile virus, climate, North America, statistical frequency analysis, risk estimation, public health, modeling, scenario, temperature, precipitation

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2492 12 Real Forensic Caseworks Solved by the DNA STR-Typing of Skeletal Remains Exposed to Extremely Environment Conditions without the Conventional Bone Pulverization Step

Authors: Chiara Della Rocca, Gavino Piras, Andrea Berti, Alessandro Mameli

Abstract:

DNA identification of human skeletal remains plays a valuable role in the forensic field, especially in missing persons and mass disaster investigations. Hard tissues, such as bones and teeth, represent a very common kind of samples analyzed in forensic laboratories because they are often the only biological materials remaining. However, the major limitation of using these compact samples relies on the extremely time–consuming and labor–intensive treatment of grinding them into powder before proceeding with the conventional DNA purification and extraction step. In this context, a DNA extraction assay called the TBone Ex kit (DNA Chip Research Inc.) was developed to digest bone chips without powdering. Here, we simultaneously analyzed bone and tooth samples that arrived at our police laboratory and belonged to 15 different forensic casework that occurred in Sardinia (Italy). A total of 27 samples were recovered from different scenarios and were exposed to extreme environmental factors, including sunlight, seawater, soil, fauna, vegetation, and high temperature and humidity. The TBone Ex kit was used prior to the EZ2 DNA extraction kit on the EZ2 Connect Fx instrument (Qiagen), and high-quality autosomal and Y-chromosome STRs profiles were obtained for the 80% of the caseworks in an extremely short time frame. This study provides additional support for the use of the TBone Ex kit for digesting bone fragments/whole teeth as an effective alternative to pulverization protocols. We empirically demonstrated the effectiveness of the kit in processing multiple bone samples simultaneously, largely simplifying the DNA extraction procedure and the good yield of recovered DNA for downstream genetic typing in highly compromised forensic real specimens. In conclusion, this study turns out to be extremely useful for forensic laboratories, to which the various actors of the criminal justice system – such as potential jury members, judges, defense attorneys, and prosecutors – required immediate feedback.

Keywords: DNA, skeletal remains, bones, tbone ex kit, extreme conditions

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2491 Experimental Determination of Water Productivity of Improved Cassava Varieties Propagation under Rain-Fed Condition in Tropical Environment

Authors: Temitayo Abayomi Ewemoje, Isaac Olugbemiga Afolayan, Badmus Alao Tayo

Abstract:

Researchers in developing countries have worked on improving cassava resistance to diseases and pests, high yielding and early maturity However, water management has received little or no attention as cassava cultivation in Sub-Saharan Africa depended on available precipitation (rain-fed condition). Therefore the need for water management in Agricultural crop production cannot be overemphasized. As other sectors compete with agricultural sector for fresh water (which is not readily available), there is need to increase water productivity in agricultural production. Experimentation was conducted to examine water use, growth and yield of improved cassava varieties under rain fed condition using Latin- square design with four replications. Four improved disease free stem cassava varieties TMS (30572, 980505, 920326 and 090581) were planted and growth parameters of the varieties were monitored for 90 and 120 days after planting (DAP). Effective rainfall useful for the plant growth was calculated using CROPWAT8 for Windows. Results indicated TMS090581 was having the highest tuber yield and plant height while TMS30572 had highest number of nodes. Tuber stem and leaf water productivities at 90 and 120 DAP of TMS (30572, 980505, 920326 and 090581) are (1.27 and 3.58, 1.44 and 2.35, 0.89 and 1.86, 1.64 and 3.77) kg/m3 (1.56 and 2.59, 1.95 and 2.02, 1.98 and 2.05, 1.95 and 2.18) kg/m3, and (1.34 and 2.32, 1.94 and 2.16, 1.57 and 1.40, 1.27 and 1.80) kg/m3 respectively. Based on tuber water productivity TMS090581 are recommended while TMS30572 are recommended based on leaf and stem productivity in water scarce regions.Experimentation was conducted to examine water use, growth and yield of improved cassava varieties under rain fed condition using Latin- square design with four replications. Four improved disease free stem cassava varieties TMS (30572, 980505, 920326 and 090581) were planted and growth parameters of the varieties were monitored for 90 and 120 days after planting (DAP). Effective rainfall useful for the plant growth was calculated using CROPWAT8 for Windows. Results indicated TMS090581 was having the highest tuber yield and plant height while TMS30572 had the highest number of nodes. Tuber, stem and leaf water productivities at 90 and 120 DAP of TMS (30572, 980505, 920326 and 090581) are (1.27 and 3.58, 1.44 and 2.35, 0.89 and 1.86, 1.64 and 3.77) kg/m3 (1.56 and 2.59, 1.95 and 2.02, 1.98 and 2.05, 1.95 and 2.18) kg/m3, and (1.34 and 2.32, 1.94 and 2.16, 1.57 and 1.40, 1.27 and 1.80) kg/m3 respectively. Based on tuber water productivity TMS090581 are recommended while TMS30572 are recommended based on leaf and stem productivity in water scarce regions

Keywords: improved TMS varieties, leaf productivity, rain-fed cassava production, stem productivity, tuber productivity

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2490 Relationships of Plasma Lipids, Lipoproteins and Cardiovascular Outcomes with Climatic Variations: A Large 8-Year Period Brazilian Study

Authors: Vanessa H. S. Zago, Ana Maria H. de Avila, Paula P. Costa, Welington Corozolla, Liriam S. Teixeira, Eliana C. de Faria

Abstract:

Objectives: The outcome of cardiovascular disease is affected by environment and climate. This study evaluated the possible relationships between climatic and environmental changes and the occurrence of biological rhythms in serum lipids and lipoproteins in a large population sample in the city of Campinas, State of Sao Paulo, Brazil. In addition, it determined the temporal variations of death due to atherosclerotic events in Campinas during the time window examined. Methods: A large 8-year retrospective study was carried out to evaluate the lipid profiles of individuals attended at the University of Campinas (Unicamp). The study population comprised 27.543 individuals of both sexes and of all ages. Normolipidemic and dyslipidemic individuals classified according to Brazilian guidelines on dyslipidemias, participated in the study. For the same period, the temperature, relative humidity and daily brightness records were obtained from the Centro de Pesquisas Meteorologicas e Climaticas Aplicadas a Agricultura/Unicamp and frequencies of death due to atherosclerotic events in Campinas were acquired from the Brazilian official database DATASUS, according to the International Classification of Diseases. Statistical analyses were performed using both Cosinor and ARIMA temporal analysis methods. For cross-correlation analysis between climatic and lipid parameters, cross-correlation functions were used. Results: Preliminary results indicated that rhythmicity was significant for LDL-C and HDL-C in the cases of both normolipidemic and dyslipidemic subjects (n =respectively 11.892 and 15.651 both measures increasing in the winter and decreasing in the summer). On the other hand, for dyslipidemic subjects triglycerides increased in summer and decreased in winter, in contrast to normolipidemic ones, in which triglycerides did not show rhythmicity. The number of deaths due to atherosclerotic events showed significant rhythmicity, with maximum and minimum frequencies in winter and summer, respectively. Cross-correlation analyzes showed that low humidity and temperature, higher thermal amplitude and dark cycles are associated with increased levels of LDL-C and HDL-C during winter. In contrast, TG showed moderate cross-correlations with temperature and minimum humidity in an inverse way: maximum temperature and humidity increased TG during the summer. Conclusions: This study showed a coincident rhythmicity between low temperatures and high concentrations of LDL-C and HDL-C and the number of deaths due to atherosclerotic cardiovascular events in individuals from the city of Campinas. The opposite behavior of cholesterol and TG suggest different physiological mechanisms in their metabolic modulation by climate parameters change. Thus, new analyses are underway to better elucidate these mechanisms, as well as variations in lipid concentrations in relation to climatic variations and their associations with atherosclerotic disease and death outcomes in Campinas.

Keywords: atherosclerosis, climatic variations, lipids and lipoproteins, associations

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2489 Examining the Role of Farmer-Centered Participatory Action Learning in Building Sustainable Communities in Rural Haiti

Authors: Charles St. Geste, Michael Neumann, Catherine Twohig

Abstract:

Our primary aim is to examine farmer-centered participatory action learning as a tool to improve agricultural production, build resilience to climate shocks and, more broadly, advance community-driven solutions for sustainable development in rural communities across Haiti. For over six years, sixty plus farmers from Deslandes, Haiti, organized in three traditional work groups called konbits, have designed and tested low-input agroecology techniques as part of the Konbit Vanyan Kapab Pwoje Agroekoloji. The project utilizes a participatory action learning approach, emphasizing social inclusion, building on local knowledge, experiential learning, active farmer participation in trial design and evaluation, and cross-community sharing. Mixed methods were used to evaluate changes in knowledge and adoption of agroecology techniques, confidence in advancing agroecology locally, and innovation among Konbit Vanyan Kapab farmers. While skill and knowledge in application of agroecology techniques varied among individual farmers, a majority of farmers successfully adopted techniques outside of the trial farms. The use of agroecology techniques on trial and individual farms has doubled crop production in many cases. Farm income has also increased, and farmers report less damage to crops and property caused by extreme weather events. Furthermore, participatory action strategies have led to greater local self-determination and greater capacity for sustainable community development. With increased self-confidence and the knowledge and skills acquired from participating in the project, farmers prioritized sharing their successful techniques with other farmers and have developed a farmer-to-farmer training program that incorporates participatory action learning. Using adult education methods, farmers, trained as agroecology educators, are currently providing training in sustainable farming practices to farmers from five villages in three departments across Haiti. Konbit Vanyan Kapab farmers have also begun testing production of value-added food products, including a dried soup mix and tea. Key factors for success include: opportunities for farmers to actively participate in all phases of the project, group diversity, resources for application of agroecology techniques, focus on group processes and overcoming local barriers to inclusive decision-making.

Keywords: agroecology, participatory action learning, rural Haiti, sustainable community development

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2488 Impact of Climate Change on Crop Production: Climate Resilient Agriculture Is the Need of the Hour

Authors: Deepak Loura

Abstract:

Climate change is considered one of the major environmental problems of the 21st century and a lasting change in the statistical distribution of weather patterns over periods ranging from decades to millions of years. Agriculture and climate change are internally correlated with each other in various aspects, as the threat of varying global climate has greatly driven the attention of scientists, as these variations are imparting a negative impact on global crop production and compromising food security worldwide. The fast pace of development and industrialization and indiscriminate destruction of the natural environment, more so in the last century, have altered the concentration of atmospheric gases that lead to global warming. Carbon dioxide (CO₂), methane (CH₄), and nitrous oxide (NO) are important biogenic greenhouse gases (GHGs) from the agricultural sector contributing to global warming and their concentration is increasing alarmingly. Agricultural productivity can be affected by climate change in 2 ways: first, directly, by affecting plant growth development and yield due to changes in rainfall/precipitation and temperature and/or CO₂ levels, and second, indirectly, there may be considerable impact on agricultural land use due to snow melt, availability of irrigation, frequency and intensity of inter- and intra-seasonal droughts and floods, soil organic matter transformations, soil erosion, distribution and frequency of infestation by insect pests, diseases or weeds, the decline in arable areas (due to submergence of coastal lands), and availability of energy. An increase in atmospheric CO₂ promotes the growth and productivity of C3 plants. On the other hand, an increase in temperature, can reduce crop duration, increase crop respiration rates, affect the equilibrium between crops and pests, hasten nutrient mineralization in soils, decrease fertilizer- use efficiencies, and increase evapotranspiration among others. All these could considerably affect crop yield in long run. Climate resilient agriculture consisting of adaptation, mitigation, and other agriculture practices can potentially enhance the capacity of the system to withstand climate-related disturbances by resisting damage and recovering quickly. Climate resilient agriculture turns the climate change threats that have to be tackled into new business opportunities for the sector in different regions and therefore provides a triple win: mitigation, adaptation, and economic growth. Improving the soil organic carbon stock of soil is integral to any strategy towards adapting to and mitigating the abrupt climate change, advancing food security, and improving the environment. Soil carbon sequestration is one of the major mitigation strategies to achieve climate-resilient agriculture. Climate-smart agriculture is the only way to lower the negative impact of climate variations on crop adaptation before it might affect global crop production drastically. To cope with these extreme changes, future development needs to make adjustments in technology, management practices, and legislation. Adaptation and mitigation are twin approaches to bringing resilience to climate change in agriculture.

Keywords: climate change, global warming, crop production, climate resilient agriculture

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2487 Research on the Optimization of Satellite Mission Scheduling

Authors: Pin-Ling Yin, Dung-Ying Lin

Abstract:

Satellites play an important role in our daily lives, from monitoring the Earth's environment and providing real-time disaster imagery to predicting extreme weather events. As technology advances and demands increase, the tasks undertaken by satellites have become increasingly complex, with more stringent resource management requirements. A common challenge in satellite mission scheduling is the limited availability of resources, including onboard memory, ground station accessibility, and satellite power. In this context, efficiently scheduling and managing the increasingly complex satellite missions under constrained resources has become a critical issue that needs to be addressed. The core of Satellite Onboard Activity Planning (SOAP) lies in optimizing the scheduling of the received tasks, arranging them on a timeline to form an executable onboard mission plan. This study aims to develop an optimization model that considers the various constraints involved in satellite mission scheduling, such as the non-overlapping execution periods for certain types of tasks, the requirement that tasks must fall within the contact range of specified types of ground stations during their execution, onboard memory capacity limits, and the collaborative constraints between different types of tasks. Specifically, this research constructs a mixed-integer programming mathematical model and solves it with a commercial optimization package. Simultaneously, as the problem size increases, the problem becomes more difficult to solve. Therefore, in this study, a heuristic algorithm has been developed to address the challenges of using commercial optimization package as the scale increases. The goal is to effectively plan satellite missions, maximizing the total number of executable tasks while considering task priorities and ensuring that tasks can be completed as early as possible without violating feasibility constraints. To verify the feasibility and effectiveness of the algorithm, test instances of various sizes were generated, and the results were validated through feedback from on-site users and compared against solutions obtained from a commercial optimization package. Numerical results show that the algorithm performs well under various scenarios, consistently meeting user requirements. The satellite mission scheduling algorithm proposed in this study can be flexibly extended to different types of satellite mission demands, achieving optimal resource allocation and enhancing the efficiency and effectiveness of satellite mission execution.

Keywords: mixed-integer programming, meta-heuristics, optimization, resource management, satellite mission scheduling

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2486 Structural Health Monitoring-Integrated Structural Reliability Based Decision Making

Authors: Caglayan Hizal, Kutay Yuceturk, Ertugrul Turker Uzun, Hasan Ceylan, Engin Aktas, Gursoy Turan

Abstract:

Monitoring concepts for structural systems have been investigated by researchers for decades since such tools are quite convenient to determine intervention planning of structures. Despite the considerable development in this regard, the efficient use of monitoring data in reliability assessment, and prediction models are still in need of improvement in their efficiency. More specifically, reliability-based seismic risk assessment of engineering structures may play a crucial role in the post-earthquake decision-making process for the structures. After an earthquake, professionals could identify heavily damaged structures based on visual observations. Among these, it is hard to identify the ones with minimum signs of damages, even if they would experience considerable structural degradation. Besides, visual observations are open to human interpretations, which make the decision process controversial, and thus, less reliable. In this context, when a continuous monitoring system has been previously installed on the corresponding structure, this decision process might be completed rapidly and with higher confidence by means of the observed data. At this stage, the Structural Health Monitoring (SHM) procedure has an important role since it can make it possible to estimate the system reliability based on a recursively updated mathematical model. Therefore, integrating an SHM procedure into the reliability assessment process comes forward as an important challenge due to the arising uncertainties for the updated model in case of the environmental, material and earthquake induced changes. In this context, this study presents a case study on SHM-integrated reliability assessment of the continuously monitored progressively damaged systems. The objective of this study is to get instant feedback on the current state of the structure after an extreme event, such as earthquakes, by involving the observed data rather than the visual inspections. Thus, the decision-making process after such an event can be carried out on a rational basis. In the near future, this can give wing to the design of self-reported structures which can warn about its current situation after an extreme event.

Keywords: condition assessment, vibration-based SHM, reliability analysis, seismic risk assessment

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2485 Satellite Interferometric Investigations of Subsidence Events Associated with Groundwater Extraction in Sao Paulo, Brazil

Authors: B. Mendonça, D. Sandwell

Abstract:

The Metropolitan Region of Sao Paulo (MRSP) has suffered from serious water scarcity. Consequently, the most convenient solution has been building wells to extract groundwater from local aquifers. However, it requires constant vigilance to prevent over extraction and future events that can pose serious threat to the population, such as subsidence. Radar imaging techniques (InSAR) have allowed continuous investigation of such phenomena. The analysis of data in the present study consists of 23 SAR images dated from October 2007 to March 2011, obtained by the ALOS-1 spacecraft. Data processing was made with the software GMTSAR, by using the InSAR technique to create pairs of interferograms with ground displacement during different time spans. First results show a correlation between the location of 102 wells registered in 2009 and signals of ground displacement equal or lower than -90 millimeters (mm) in the region. The longest time span interferogram obtained dates from October 2007 to March 2010. As a result, from that interferogram, it was possible to detect the average velocity of displacement in millimeters per year (mm/y), and which areas strong signals have persisted in the MRSP. Four specific areas with signals of subsidence of 28 mm/y to 40 mm/y were chosen to investigate the phenomenon: Guarulhos (Sao Paulo International Airport), the Greater Sao Paulo, Itaquera and Sao Caetano do Sul. The coverage area of the signals was between 0.6 km and 1.65 km of length. All areas are located above a sedimentary type of aquifer. Itaquera and Sao Caetano do Sul showed signals varying from 28 mm/y to 32 mm/y. On the other hand, the places most likely to be suffering from stronger subsidence are the ones in the Greater Sao Paulo and Guarulhos, right beside the International Airport of Sao Paulo. The rate of displacement observed in both regions goes from 35 mm/y to 40 mm/y. Previous investigations of the water use at the International Airport highlight the risks of excessive water extraction that was being done through 9 deep wells. Therefore, it is affirmed that subsidence events are likely to occur and to cause serious damage in the area. This study could show a situation that has not been explored with proper importance in the city, given its social and economic consequences. Since the data were only available until 2011, the question that remains is if the situation still persists. It could be reaffirmed, however, a scenario of risk at the International Airport of Sao Paulo that needs further investigation.

Keywords: ground subsidence, Interferometric Satellite Aperture Radar (InSAR), metropolitan region of Sao Paulo, water extraction

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2484 Enhanced Flight Dynamics Model to Simulate the Aircraft Response to Gust Encounters

Authors: Castells Pau, Poetsch Christophe

Abstract:

The effect of gust and turbulence encounters on aircraft is a wide field of study which allows different approaches, from high-fidelity multidisciplinary simulations to more simplified models adapted to industrial applications. The typical main goal is to predict the gust loads on the aircraft in order to ensure a safe design and achieve certification. Another topic widely studied is the gust loads reduction through an active control law. The impact of gusts on aircraft handling qualities is of interest as well in the analysis of in-service events so as to evaluate the aircraft response and the performance of the flight control laws. Traditionally, gust loads and handling qualities are addressed separately with different models adapted to the specific needs of each discipline. In this paper, an assessment of the differences between both models is presented and a strategy to better account for the physics of gust encounters in a typical flight dynamics model is proposed based on the model used for gust loads analysis. The applied corrections aim to capture the gust unsteady aerodynamics and propagation as well as the effect of dynamic flexibility at low frequencies. Results from the gust loads model at different flight conditions and measures from real events are used for validation. An assessment of a possible extension of steady aerodynamic nonlinearities to low frequency range is also addressed. The proposed corrections provide meaningful means to evaluate the performance and possible adjustments of the flight control laws.

Keywords: flight dynamics, gust loads, handling qualities, unsteady aerodynamics

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2483 Metaphorical Devices in Political Cartoons with Reference to Political Confrontation in Pakistan after Panama Leaks

Authors: Ayesha Ashfaq, Muhammad Ajmal Ashfaq

Abstract:

It has been assumed that metaphorical and symbolic contests are waged with metaphors, captions, and signs in political cartoons that play a significant role in image construction of political actors, situations or events in the political arena. This paper is an effort to explore the metaphorical devices in political cartoons related to the political confrontation in Pakistan between the ruling party Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PMLN) and opposition parties especially after Panama leaks. For this purpose, political cartoons sketched by five renowned political cartoonists on the basis of their belongings to the most highly circulated mainstream English newspapers of Pakistan and their professional experiences in their genre, were selected. The cartoons were analyzed through the Barthes’s model of Semiotics under the umbrella of the first level of agenda setting theory ‘framing’. It was observed that metaphorical devices in political cartoons are one of the key weapons of cartoonists’ armory. These devices are used to attack the candidates and contribute to the image and character building. It was found that all the selected political cartoonists used different forms of metaphors including situational metaphors and embodying metaphors. Not only the physical stature but also the debates and their activities were depicted metaphorically in the cartoons that create the scenario of comparison between the cartoons and their real political confrontation. It was examined that both forms of metaphors shed light on cartoonist’s perception and newspaper’s policy about political candidates, political parties and particular events. In addition, it was found that zoomorphic metaphors and metaphors of diminishments were also predominantly used to depict the conflict between two said political actors.

Keywords: metaphor, Panama leaks, political cartoons, political communication

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