Search results for: Andrew Price
526 Case-Based Reasoning Application to Predict Geological Features at Site C Dam Construction Project
Authors: Shahnam Behnam Malekzadeh, Ian Kerr, Tyson Kaempffer, Teague Harper, Andrew Watson
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The Site C Hydroelectric dam is currently being constructed in north-eastern British Columbia on sub-horizontal sedimentary strata that dip approximately 15 meters from one bank of the Peace River to the other. More than 615 pressure sensors (Vibrating Wire Piezometers) have been installed on bedding planes (BPs) since construction began, with over 80 more planned before project completion. These pressure measurements are essential to monitor the stability of the rock foundation during and after construction and for dam safety purposes. BPs are identified by their clay gouge infilling, which varies in thickness from less than 1 to 20 mm and can be challenging to identify as the core drilling process often disturbs or washes away the gouge material. Without the use of depth predictions from nearby boreholes, stratigraphic markers, and downhole geophysical data, it is difficult to confidently identify BP targets for the sensors. In this paper, a Case-Based Reasoning (CBR) method was used to develop an empirical model called the Bedding Plane Elevation Prediction (BPEP) to help geologists and geotechnical engineers to predict geological features and bedding planes at new locations in a fast and accurate manner. To develop CBR, a database was developed based on 64 pressure sensors already installed on key bedding planes BP25, BP28, and BP31 on the Right Bank, including bedding plane elevations and coordinates. Thirteen (20%) of the most recent cases were selected to validate and evaluate the accuracy of the developed model, while the similarity was defined as the distance between previous cases and recent cases to predict the depth of significant BPs. The average difference between actual BP elevations and predicted elevations for above BPs was ±55cm, while the actual results showed that 69% of predicted elevations were within ±79 cm of actual BP elevations while 100% of predicted elevations for new cases were within ±99cm range. Eventually, the actual results will be used to develop the database and improve BPEP to perform as a learning machine to predict more accurate BP elevations for future sensor installations.Keywords: case-based reasoning, geological feature, geology, piezometer, pressure sensor, core logging, dam construction
Procedia PDF Downloads 80525 Entrepreneurial Orientation and Customer Satisfaction: Evidences nearby Khao San Road
Authors: Vichada Chokesikarin
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The study aims to determine which factors account for customer satisfaction and to investigate the relationship between entrepreneurial orientation and business success, in particular, context of the information understanding of hostel business in Pranakorn district, Bangkok and the significant element of entrepreneurship in tourism industry. This study covers 352 hostels customers and 61 hostel owners/managers nearby Khao San Road. Data collection methods were used by survey questionnaire and a series of hypotheses were developed from services marketing literature. The findings suggest the customer satisfaction most influenced by image, service quality, room quality and price accordingly. Furthermore the findings revealed that significant relationships exist between entrepreneurial orientation and business success; while competitive aggressiveness was found unrelated. The ECSI model’s generic measuring customer satisfaction was found partially mediate the business success. A reconsideration of other variables applicable should be supported with the model of hostel business. The study provides context and overall view of hostel business while discussing from the entrepreneurial orientation to customer satisfaction, thereby reducing decision risk on hostel investment.Keywords: customer satisfaction, ECSI model, entrepreneurial orientation, small hotel, hostel, business performance
Procedia PDF Downloads 336524 Visitors’ Attitude towards the Service Marketing Mix and Frequency of Visits to Bangpu Recreation Centre, Thailand
Authors: Siri-Orn Champatong
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This research paper was aimed to examine the relationship between visitors’ attitude towards the service marketing mix and visitors’ frequency of visit to Bangpu Recreation Centre. Based on a large and uncalculated population, the number of samples was calculated according to the formula to obtain a total of 385 samples. In collecting the samples, systematic random sampling was applied and by using of a Likert five-scale questionnaire for, a total of 21 days to collect the needed information. Mean, Standard Deviation, and Pearson’s basic statistical correlations were utilized in analyzing the data. This study discovered a high level of visitors’ attitude product and service of Bangpu Recreation Centre, price, place, promotional activities, people who provided service and physical evidence of the centre. The attitude towards process of service was discovered to be at a medium level. Additionally, the finding of an examination of a relationship between visitors’ attitude towards service marketing mix and visitors’ frequency of visit to Bangpu Recreation Centre presented that product and service, people, physical evidence and process of service provision showed a relationship with the visitors’ frequency of visit to the centre per year.Keywords: frequency of visit, visitor, service marketing mix, Bangpu Recreation Centre
Procedia PDF Downloads 369523 Regulating Information Asymmetries at Online Platforms for Short-Term Vacation Rental in European Union– Legal Conondrum Continues
Authors: Vesna Lukovic
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Online platforms as new business models play an important role in today’s economy and the functioning of the EU’s internal market. In the travel industry, algorithms used by online platforms for short-stay accommodation provide suggestions and price information to travelers. Those suggestions and recommendations are displayed in search results via recommendation (ranking) systems. There has been a growing consensus that the current legal framework was not sufficient to resolve problems arising from platform practices. In order to enhance the potential of the EU’s Single Market, smaller businesses should be protected, and their rights strengthened vis-à-vis large online platforms. The Regulation (EU) 2019/1150 of the European Parliament and of the Council on promoting fairness and transparency for business users of online intermediation services aims to level the playing field in that respect. This research looks at Airbnb through the lenses of this regulation. The research explores key determinants and finds that although regulation is an important step in the right direction, it is not enough. It does not entail sufficient clarity obligations that would make online platforms an intermediary service which both accommodation providers and travelers could use with ease.Keywords: algorithm, online platforms, ranking, consumers, EU regulation
Procedia PDF Downloads 130522 Factors Affecting Consumers’ Online Shopping Behavior in Vietnam during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Case Study of Tiki
Authors: Thi Hai Anh Nguyen, Pantea Aria
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Tiki is one of the leading e-commerce companies in Viet Nam. Since the beginning of 2020, COVID-19 has been spreading around the world. Thanks to this pandemic, the Tiki platform has many strengths and has faced many threats. Customer behaviour was forecasted to change during the COVID-19 pandemic. The aim of the investigation is (1) Identifying factors affecting online consumer behaviour of Tiki in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, (2) Measuring the level of impact of these factors, and (3) Recommendations for Tiki to improve its business strategy for the next stage. This research studies eight factors and collected 378 online surveys for analysis. Using SPSS software identified five factors (product, price, reliability, and web design) positively influencing customer behaviour. COVID-19 factor does not impact significantly Tiki’s customer behaviour. This research conducted some qualitative interviews to understand shopping experiences and customers’ expectations. One of these interviews’ main points is that Tiki’s customers have high trust in the Tiki brand and its high-quality products. Based on the results, the Tiki corporation should secure its core value. Tiki’s employees and logistics systems should be well-trained and optimized to improve customer experiences.Keywords: COVID-19, e-commerce, impact, pandemic, Vietnam
Procedia PDF Downloads 163521 Implications of Agricultural Subsidies Since Green Revolution: A Case Study of Indian Punjab
Authors: Kriti Jain, Sucha Singh Gill
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Subsidies have been a major part of agricultural policies around the world, and more extensively since the green revolution in developing countries, for the sake of attaining higher agricultural productivity and achieving food security. But entrenched subsidies lead to distorted incentives and promote inefficiencies in the agricultural sector, threatening the viability of these very subsidies and sustainability of the agricultural production systems, posing a threat to the livelihood of farmers and laborers dependent on it. This paper analyzes the economic and ecological sustainability implications of prolonged input and output subsidies in agriculture by studying the case of Indian Punjab, an agriculturally developed state responsible for ensuring food security in the country when it was facing a major food crisis. The paper focuses specifically on the environmentally unsustainable cropping pattern changes as a result of Minimum Support Price (MSP) and assured procurement and on the resource use efficiency and cost implications of power subsidy for irrigation in Punjab. The study is based on an analysis of both secondary and primary data sources. Using secondary data, a time series analysis was done to capture the changes in Punjab’s cropping pattern, water table depth, fertilizer consumption, and electrification of agriculture. This has been done to examine the role of price and output support adopted to encourage the adoption of green revolution technology in changing the cropping structure of the state, resulting in increased input use intensities (especially groundwater and fertilizers), which harms the ecological balance and decreases factor productivity. Evaluation of electrification of Punjab agriculture helped evaluate the trend in electricity productivity of agriculture and how free power imposed further pressure on the extant agricultural ecosystem. Using data collected from a primary survey of 320 farmers in Punjab, the extent of wasteful application of groundwater irrigation, water productivity of output, electricity usage, and cost of irrigation driven electricity subsidy to the exchequer were estimated for the dominant cropping pattern amongst farmers. The main findings of the study revealed how because of a subsidy has driven agricultural framework, Punjab has lost area under agro climatically suitable and staple crops and moved towards a paddy-wheat cropping system, that is gnawing away the state’s natural resources like water table has been declining at a significant rate of 25 cms per year since 1975-76, and excessive and imbalanced fertilizer usage has led to declining soil fertility in the state. With electricity-driven tubewells as the major source of irrigation within a regime of free electricity and water-intensive crop cultivation, there is both wasteful application of irrigation water and electricity in the cultivation of paddy crops, burning an unproductive hole in the exchequer’s pocket. There is limited access to both agricultural extension services and water-conserving technology, along with policy imbalance, keeping farmers in an intensive and unsustainable production system. Punjab agriculture is witnessing diminishing returns to factor, which under the business-as-usual scenario, will soon enter the phase of negative returns to factor.Keywords: cropping pattern, electrification, subsidy, sustainability
Procedia PDF Downloads 186520 Noninvasive Continuous Glucose Monitoring Device Using a Photon-Assisted Tunneling Photodetector Based on a Quantum Metal-Oxide-Semiconductor
Authors: Wannakorn Sangthongngam, Melissa Huerta, Jaewoo Kim, Doyeon Kim
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Continuous glucose monitoring systems are essential for diabetics to avoid health complications but come at a costly price, especially when insurance does not fully cover the diabetic testing kits needed. This paper proposes a noninvasive continuous glucose monitoring system to provide an accessible, low-cost, and painless alternative method of accurate glucose measurements to help improve quality of life. Using a light source with a wavelength of 850nm illuminates the fingertip for the photodetector to detect the transmitted light. Utilizing SeeDevice’s photon-assisted tunneling photodetector (PAT-PD)-based QMOS™ sensor, fluctuations of voltage based on photon absorption in blood cells are comparable to traditional glucose measurements. The performance of the proposed method was validated using 4 test participants’ transmitted voltage readings compared with measurements obtained from the Accu-Chek glucometer. The proposed method was able to successfully measure concentrations from linear regression calculations.Keywords: continuous glucose monitoring, non-invasive continuous glucose monitoring, NIR, photon-assisted tunneling photodetector, QMOS™, wearable device
Procedia PDF Downloads 97519 A Stochastic Volatility Model for Optimal Market-Making
Authors: Zubier Arfan, Paul Johnson
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The electronification of financial markets and the rise of algorithmic trading has sparked a lot of interest from the mathematical community, for the market making-problem in particular. The research presented in this short paper solves the classic stochastic control problem in order to derive the strategy for a market-maker. It also shows how to calibrate and simulate the strategy with real limit order book data for back-testing. The ambiguity of limit-order priority in back-testing is dealt with by considering optimistic and pessimistic priority scenarios. The model, although it does outperform a naive strategy, assumes constant volatility, therefore, is not best suited to the LOB data. The Heston model is introduced to describe the price and variance process of the asset. The Trader's constant absolute risk aversion utility function is optimised by numerically solving a 3-dimensional Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman partial differential equation to find the optimal limit order quotes. The results show that the stochastic volatility market-making model is more suitable for a risk-averse trader and is also less sensitive to calibration error than the constant volatility model.Keywords: market-making, market-microsctrucure, stochastic volatility, quantitative trading
Procedia PDF Downloads 150518 Achieving Shear Wave Elastography by a Three-element Probe for Wearable Human-machine Interface
Authors: Jipeng Yan, Xingchen Yang, Xiaowei Zhou, Mengxing Tang, Honghai Liu
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Shear elastic modulus of skeletal muscles can be obtained by shear wave elastography (SWE) and has been linearly related to muscle force. However, SWE is currently implemented using array probes. Price and volumes of these probes and their driving equipment prevent SWE from being used in wearable human-machine interfaces (HMI). Moreover, beamforming processing for array probes reduces the real-time performance. To achieve SWE by wearable HMIs, a customized three-element probe is adopted in this work, with one element for acoustic radiation force generation and the others for shear wave tracking. In-phase quadrature demodulation and 2D autocorrelation are adopted to estimate velocities of tissues on the sound beams of the latter two elements. Shear wave speeds are calculated by phase shift between the tissue velocities. Three agar phantoms with different elasticities were made by changing the weights of agar. Values of the shear elastic modulus of the phantoms were measured as 8.98, 23.06 and 36.74 kPa at a depth of 7.5 mm respectively. This work verifies the feasibility of measuring shear elastic modulus by wearable devices.Keywords: shear elastic modulus, skeletal muscle, ultrasound, wearable human-machine interface
Procedia PDF Downloads 161517 Increasing Yam Production as a Means of Solving the Problem of Hunger in Nigeria
Authors: Samual Ayeni, A. S. Akinbani
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At present when the price of petroleum is going down beyond bearable level, there is a need to diversify the economy towards arable crop production since Nigeria is an agrarian country. Yam plays prominent role in solving the problem of hunger in Nigeria. There is scarcity of information on the effect of fertilizers in increasing the yield of yam and maintaining soil properties in South Western Nigeria. This study was therefore set up to determine fertilizer effect on properties and yield of yam. The experiment was conducted at Adeyemi College of Education Teaching and Research Farm to compare the effect of organic, Organomineral and mineral fertilizers on yield of yam. Ten treatments were used 10t/ha Wood Ash, 10t/ha Cattle Dung, 10t/ha Poultry Manure, 10t/ha Manufactured Organic, 10t/ha Organomineral Fertilizer, 400kg/ha NPK, 400kg/ha SSP, 400kg/ha Urea and control with treatment. The treatments were laid out in a Randomized Complete Block Design (RCBD) and replicated three times. Compared with control, Organomineral fertilizer significantly (P < 0.05) increased the soil moisture content, poultry manure, wood ash significantly decreased (< 0.05) the bulk density. Application of 10t/ha Organomineral fertilizer recorded the highest increase in the yield of yam among the treatments.Keywords: organomineral fertilizer, organic fertilizer, SSP, bulk density
Procedia PDF Downloads 297516 Maternal Adverse Childhood Experiences and Preschool Children’s Behavioural Problems: Mediation via Adult Attachment and Moderation by Maternal Mental Health, Social Support, and Child Sex
Authors: Stefan Kurbatfinski, Aliyah Dosani, Andrew F. Hayes, Deborah Dewey, Nicole Letourneau
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Background: Maternal adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) have been associated with internalizing and externalizing behavioral problems in preschool children. However, little is known about the influence of maternal adult attachment patterns on this association. Further, potential moderation by maternal mental health, maternal social support, or child sex is poorly understood. Therefore, this study examined associations between 1) maternal ACEs and preschool children’s behavioural problems, with mediation through maternal attachment patterns and moderation by maternal mental health, maternal social support, and child sex; and 2) maternal attachment patterns and children’s behavioural problems, with mediation through maternal mental health and social support and moderation by child sex. Methods: This secondary analysis used data (n=625) from a high socioeconomic, longitudinally prospective cohort (Alberta Pregnancy Outcomes and Nutrition). Child behaviour (BASC-2) and maternal adult attachment (ECR-Q) were measured at five years of child age, maternal ACEs (ACEs Questionnaire) at around 12 months, and maternal mental health (CESD and SCL-90-R) and social support (SSQ) across various prenatal and postnatal time points. All moderation and mediation analyses occurred through RStudio using PROCESS, interpreting significant interactions through Johnson-Neyman plots. Findings: Maternal ACEs interacted with maternal anxiety symptoms to predict both behavioural problems (pexternalizing=0.007; pinternalizing=0.0159). An indirect pathway via dismissive attachment was moderated by maternal social support ([0.0058, 0.0596]). Attachment patterns predicted all behavioural problems (p<0.05) and interacted with maternal anxiety symptoms to predict internalizing behaviours among male children ([0.0321, 0.1307]; [0.0321, 0.1291]). Interpretation: Maternal attachment patterns may predict children’s behavioural problems more than ACEs. Social support interventions may not always be beneficial for highly dismissively attached mothers. Implications for policy and child health include mandatory sex and gender education for teachers; assessing attachment patterns prior to recommending social support as an intervention; and anxiety-focused interventions for mothers in higher socioeconomic populations.Keywords: maternal adverse childhood experiences, internalizing behaviours, externalizing behaviours, mediators and moderators, attachment patterns, child health
Procedia PDF Downloads 71515 Modelling Water Usage for Farming
Authors: Ozgu Turgut
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Water scarcity is a problem for many regions which requires immediate action, and solutions cannot be postponed for a long time. It is known that farming consumes a significant portion of usable water. Although in recent years, the efforts to make the transition to dripping or spring watering systems instead of using surface watering started to pay off. It is also known that this transition is not necessarily translated into an increase in the capacity dedicated to other water consumption channels such as city water or power usage. In order to control and allocate the water resource more purposefully, new watering systems have to be used with monitoring abilities that can limit the usage capacity for each farm. In this study, a decision support model which relies on a bi-objective stochastic linear optimization is proposed, which takes crop yield and price volatility into account. The model generates annual planting plans as well as water usage limits for each farmer in the region while taking the total value (i.e., profit) of the overall harvest. The mathematical model is solved using the L-shaped method optimally. The decision support model can be especially useful for regional administrations to plan next year's planting and water incomes and expenses. That is why not only a single optimum but also a set of representative solutions from the Pareto set is generated with the proposed approach.Keywords: decision support, farming, water, tactical planning, optimization, stochastic, pareto
Procedia PDF Downloads 73514 Numerical Simulation of the Fractional Flow Reserve in the Coronary Artery with Serial Stenoses of Varying Configuration
Authors: Mariia Timofeeva, Andrew Ooi, Eric K. W. Poon, Peter Barlis
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Atherosclerotic plaque build-up, commonly known as stenosis, limits blood flow and hence oxygen and nutrient supplies to the heart muscle. Thus, assessment of its severity is of great interest to health professionals. Numerical simulation of the fractional flow reserve (FFR) has proved to be well correlated with invasively measured FFR used for physiological assessment of the severity of coronary stenosis in arteries. Atherosclerosis may impact the diseased artery in several locations causing serial stenoses, which is a complicated subset of coronary artery disease that requires careful treatment planning. However, hemodynamic of the serial sequential stenoses in coronary arteries has not been extensively studied. The hemodynamics of the serial stenoses is complex because the stenoses in the series interact and affect the flow through each other. To address this, serial stenoses in a 3.4 mm left anterior descending (LAD) artery are examined in this study. Two diameter stenoses (DS) are considered, 30 and 50 percent of the reference diameter. Serial stenoses configurations are divided into three groups based on the order of the stenoses in the series, spacing between them, and deviation of the stenoses’ symmetry (eccentricity). A patient-specific pulsatile waveform is used in the simulations. Blood flow within the stenotic artery is assumed to be laminar, Newtonian, and incompressible. Results for the FFR are reported. Based on the simulation results, it can be deduced that the larger drop in pressure (smaller value of the FFR) is expected when the percentage of the second stenosis in the series is bigger. Varying the distance between the stenoses affects the location of the maximum drop in the pressure, while the minimal FFR in the artery remains unchanged. Eccentric serial stenoses are characterized by a noticeably larger decrease in pressure through the stenoses and by the development of the chaotic flow downstream of the stenoses. The largest drop in the pressure (about 4% difference compared to the axisymmetric case) is obtained for the serial stenoses, where both the stenoses are highly eccentric with the centerlines deflected to the different sides of the LAD. In conclusion, varying configuration of the sequential serial stenoses results in a different distribution of FFR through the LAD. Results presented in this study provide insight into the clinical assessment of the severity of the coronary serial stenoses, which is proved to depend on the relative position of the stenoses and the deviation of the stenoses’ symmetry.Keywords: computational fluid dynamics, coronary artery, fractional flow reserve, serial stenoses
Procedia PDF Downloads 182513 The Power of Local People in Sustainable Tourism Management: A Case Study of Community Participation on Illuminated Boat Procession in Thailand
Authors: Prompassorn Chunhabunyatip
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The objectives of this research were to study the factors affecting the participation of local people and the obstacles and recommendations towards local people’s participation in illuminated boat procession culture. The study looked at both qualitative, and quantitative data were collected by in-depth interview and analyzed by the descriptive approach. The 296 samplings were a local community who participated in constructing the illuminated boat in each community for 14 communities. The results of this study showed that the factor that encourages local people’s participation in illuminated both procession is the awareness of an importance of cultural uniqueness in the local. The problems and obstacles to the participation in illuminated boat procession include the resources for constructing illuminated both such as bamboos are run out of and price increasing, lack of proper cooperation between local people and government officers and conflict in interests between in local government office. So, the result of this study recommended that the government officers should be taken into account about community participation in the illuminated boat procession culture because without local people, the uniqueness culture of Nakhon Phanom Province would not exist and they would not reach the sustainable tourism goal.Keywords: illuminated both culture, community participation, sustainable tourism management, Nakhon Phanom province
Procedia PDF Downloads 359512 The Money Supply Effect on Hong Kong’s Post-1997 Asian Financial Crisis Property Market
Authors: Keith Dominic T. Li
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The soaring prices of residential properties in Hong Kong has become a social problem that even the middle class is having dif?iculties in purchasing homes. In making policies to curb the prices, it is important to determine the factors that contribute to the property in?lation. Many researches attribute this in?lation to macroeconomic factors especially the interest rate. However, it is important to remember that Hong Kong is under a Currency Board system which makes its interest rate exogenously determined. This research aims to show the signi?icance of the money supply on Hong Kong residential property prices in post-1997 Asian Financial Crisis period. Using money supply data, macroeconomic fundamentals, and demographic variables from 2000Q1 to 2013Q2, the factors contributed to residential property price in?lation are estimated to calculate the share of each explanatory variable in disparity. It is found that the Hong Kong property market is mainly driven by investment and that the in?lation on Hong Kong residential property prices can explained by the increase in the Hang Seng Index and in the money supply M2.Keywords: real estate, Hong Kong, property market, monetary economics, monetary policy
Procedia PDF Downloads 533511 Revisiting the Fiscal Theory of Sovereign Risk from the DSGE View
Authors: Eiji Okano, Kazuyuki Inagaki
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We revisit Uribe's `Fiscal Theory of Sovereign Risk' advocating that there is a trade-off between stabilizing inflation and suppressing default. We develop a class of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with nominal rigidities and compare two de facto inflation stabilization policies, optimal monetary policy and optimal monetary and fiscal policy with the minimizing interest rate spread policy which completely suppress the default. Under the optimal monetary and fiscal policy, not only the nominal interest rate but also the tax rate work to minimize welfare costs through stabilizing inflation. Under the optimal monetary both inflation and output gap are completely stabilized although those are fluctuating under the optimal monetary policy. In addition, volatility in the default rate under the optimal monetary policy is considerably lower than one under the optimal monetary policy. Thus, there is not the SI-SD trade-off. In addition, while the minimizing interest rate spread policy makes inflation rate severely volatile, the optimal monetary and fiscal policy stabilize both the inflation and the default. A trade-off between stabilizing inflation and suppressing default is not so severe what pointed out by Uribe.Keywords: sovereign risk, optimal monetary policy, fiscal theory of the price level, DSGE
Procedia PDF Downloads 321510 One-Way Electric Vehicle Carsharing in an Urban Area with Vehicle-To-Grid Option
Authors: Cem Isik Dogru, Salih Tekin, Kursad Derinkuyu
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Electric vehicle (EV) carsharing is an alternative method to tackle urban transportation problems. This method can be applied by several options. One of the options is the one-way carsharing, which allow an EV to be taken at a designated location and leaving it on another specified location customer desires. Although it may increase users’ satisfaction, the issues, namely, demand dissatisfaction, relocation of EVs and charging schedules, must be dealt with. Also, excessive electricity has to be stored in batteries of EVs. To cope with aforementioned issues, two-step mixed integer programming (MIP) model is proposed. In first step, the integer programming model is used to determine amount of electricity to be sold to the grid in terms of time periods for extra profit. Determined amounts are provided from the batteries of EVs. Also, this step works in day-ahead electricity markets with forecast of periodical electricity prices. In second step, other MIP model optimizes daily operations of one-way carsharing: charging-discharging schedules, relocation of EVs to serve more demand and renting to maximize the profit of EV fleet owner. Due to complexity of the models, heuristic methods are introduced to attain a feasible solution and different price information scenarios are compared.Keywords: electric vehicles, forecasting, mixed integer programming, one-way carsharing
Procedia PDF Downloads 130509 Estimating the Government Consumption and Investment Multipliers Using Local Projection Method on the US Data from 1966 to 2020
Authors: Mustofa Mahmud Al Mamun
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Government spending, one of the major components of gross domestic product (GDP), is composed of government consumption, investment, and transfer payments. A change in government spending during recessionary periods can generate an increase in GDP greater than the increase in spending. This is called the "multiplier effect". Accurate estimation of government spending multiplier is important because fiscal policy has been used to stimulate a flagging economy. Many recent studies have focused on identifying parts of the economy that responds more to a stimulus under a variety of circumstances. This paper used the US dataset from 1966 to 2020 and local projection method assuming standard identification strategy to estimate the multipliers. The model includes important macroaggregates and controls for forecasted government spending, interest rate, consumer price index (CPI), export, import, and level of public debt. Investment multipliers are found to be positive and larger than the consumption multipliers. Consumption multipliers are either negative or not significantly different than zero. Results do not vary across the business cycle. However, the consumption multiplier estimated from pre-1980 data is positive.Keywords: business cycle, consumption multipliers, forecasted government spending, investment multipliers, local projection method, zero lower bound
Procedia PDF Downloads 231508 Massively Parallel Sequencing Improved Resolution for Paternity Testing
Authors: Xueying Zhao, Ke Ma, Hui Li, Yu Cao, Fan Yang, Qingwen Xu, Wenbin Liu
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Massively parallel sequencing (MPS) technologies allow high-throughput sequencing analyses with a relatively affordable price and have gradually been applied to forensic casework. MPS technology identifies short tandem repeat (STR) loci based on sequence so that repeat motif variation within STRs can be detected, which may help one to infer the origin of the mutation in some cases. Here, we report on one case with one three-step mismatch (D18S51) in family trios based on both capillary electrophoresis (CE) and MPS typing. The alleles of the alleged father (AF) are [AGAA]₁₇AGAG[AGAA]₃ and [AGAA]₁₅. The mother’s alleles are [AGAA]₁₉ and [AGAA]₉AGGA[AGAA]₃. The questioned child’s (QC) alleles are [AGAA]₁₉ and [AGAA]₁₂. Given that the sequence variants in repeat regions of AF and mother are not observed in QC’s alleles, the QC’s allele [AGAA]₁₂ was likely inherited from the AF’s allele [AGAA]₁₅ by loss of three repeat [AGAA]. Besides, two new alleles of D18S51 in this study, [AGAA]₁₇AGAG[AGAA]₃ and [AGAA]₉AGGA[AGAA]₃, have not been reported before. All the results in this study were verified using Sanger-type sequencing. In summary, the MPS typing method can offer valuable information for forensic genetics research and play a promising role in paternity testing.Keywords: family trios analysis, forensic casework, ion torrent personal genome machine (PGM), massively parallel sequencing (MPS)
Procedia PDF Downloads 302507 Statistical Model to Examine the Impact of the Inflation Rate and Real Interest Rate on the Bahrain Economy
Authors: Ghada Abo-Zaid
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Introduction: Oil is one of the most income source in Bahrain. Low oil price influence on the economy growth and the investment rate in Bahrain. For example, the economic growth was 3.7% in 2012, and it reduced to 2.9% in 2015. Investment rate was 9.8% in 2012, and it is reduced to be 5.9% and -12.1% in 2014 and 2015, respectively. The inflation rate is increased to the peak point in 2013 with 3.3 %. Objectives: The objectives here are to build statistical models to examine the effect of the interest rate inflation rate on the growth economy in Bahrain from 2000 to 2018. Methods: This study based on 18 years, and the multiple regression model is used for the analysis. All of the missing data are omitted from the analysis. Results: Regression model is used to examine the association between the Growth national product (GNP), the inflation rate, and real interest rate. We found that (i) Increase the real interest rate decrease the GNP. (ii) Increase the inflation rate does not effect on the growth economy in Bahrain since the average of the inflation rate was almost 2%, and this is considered as a low percentage. Conclusion: There is a positive impact of the real interest rate on the GNP in Bahrain. While the inflation rate does not show any negative influence on the GNP as the inflation rate was not large enough to effect negatively on the economy growth rate in Bahrain.Keywords: growth national product, egypt, regression model, interest rate
Procedia PDF Downloads 164506 Providing a Suitable Model for Launching New Home Appliances Products to the Market
Authors: Ebrahim Sabermaash Eshghi, Donna Sandsmark
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In changing modern economic conditions of the world, one the most important issues facing managers of firms, is increasing the sales and profitability through sales of newly developed products. This is while purpose of decreasing unnecessary costs is one of the most essential programs of smart managers for more implementation with new conditions in current business. In modern life, condition of misgiving is dominant in all of the industries. Accordingly, in this research, influence of different aspects of presenting products to the market is investigated. This study is done through a Quantitative-Qualitative (Interviews and Questionnaire) approach. In sum, 103 of informed managers and experts of Pars-Khazar Company have been examined through census. Validity of measurement tools was approved through judgments of experts. Reliability of tools was gained through Cronbach's alpha coefficient in size of 0.930 and in sum, validity and reliability of tools were approved generally. Results of regression test revealed that the influence of all aspects of product introduction supported the performance of product, positively and significantly. In addition that influence of two new factors raised from the interview, namely Human Resource Management and Management of product’s pre-test on performance of products was approved.Keywords: introducing products, performance, home appliances, price, advertisement, production
Procedia PDF Downloads 211505 Heterogeneous Catalytic Hydroesterification of Soybean Oil to Develop a Biodiesel Formation
Authors: O. Mowla, E. Kennedy, M. Stockenhuber
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Finding alternative renewable resources of energy has attracted the attentions in consequence of limitation of the traditional fossil fuel resources, increasing of crude oil price and environmental concern over greenhouse gas emissions. Biodiesel (or Fatty Acid Methyl Esters (FAME)), an alternative energy source, is synthesised from renewable sources such as vegetable oils and animal fats and can be produced from waste oils. FAME can be produced via hydroesterification of oils. The process involves two stages. In the first stage of this process, fatty acids and glycerol are being obtained by hydrolysis of the feed stock oil. In the second stage, the recovered fatty acids are then esterified with an alcohol to methyl esters. The presence of a catalyst accelerates the rate of the hydroesterification reaction of oils. The overarching aim of this study is to find the effect of using zeolite as a catalyst in the heterogeneous hydroesterification of soybean oil. Both stages of the catalytic hydroesterification of soybean oil had been conducted at atmospheric and high-pressure conditions using reflux glass reactor and Parr reactor, respectively. The effect of operating parameters such as temperature and reaction time on the overall yield of biodiesel formation was also investigated.Keywords: biodiesel, heterogeneous catalytic hydroesterification, soybean oil, zeolite
Procedia PDF Downloads 433504 Improving Access and Quality of Patient Information Resources for Orthognathic Treatment: A Quality Improvement Project
Authors: Evelyn Marie Richmond, Andrew McBride, Chris Johnston, John Marley
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Background: Good quality patient information resources for orthognathic treatment help to reinforce information delivered during the initial consultation and help patients make informed decisions about their care. The Consultant Orthodontists and a Dental Core Trainee noted limited patient engagement with the British Orthodontic Society (BOS) 'Your Jaw Surgery' online resources and that the existing BOS patient information leaflet (PIL) could be customised and developed to meet local requirements. Aim: The quality improvement project (QIP) aimed to improve patients' understanding of orthognathic treatment by ensuring at least 90% of patients had read the new in-house patient information leaflet (PIL) and a minimum of 50% of patients had accessed the British Orthodontic Society (BOS) 'Your Jaw Surgery' online resources before attending the joint orthognathic multidisciplinary clinic by June 2023. Methods: The QIP was undertaken in the orthodontic department of the School of Dentistry, Belfast. Data was collected prospectively during a 6-month period from January 2023 to June 2023 over 3 Plan, Do, Study, Act (PDSA) cycles. Suitable patients were identified at consultant orthodontic new patient clinics. Following initial consultation for orthognathic treatment, patients were contacted to complete a patient questionnaire. Design: The change ideas were a poster with a QR code directing patients to the BOS 'Your Jaw Surgery' website in consultation areas and a new in-house PIL with a QR code directing patients to the BOS 'Your Jaw Surgery' website. Results: In PDSA cycle 1, 86.7% of patients were verbally directed to the BOS 'Your Jaw Surgery' website, and 53.3% accessed the online resources after their initial consultation. Although 100% of patients reported reading the existing PIL, only 64.3% felt it discussed the risks of orthognathic treatment in sufficient detail. By PDSA cycle 3, 100% of patients reported being directed to the BOS 'Your Jaw Surgery' website, however, only 58.3% engaged with the website. 100% of patients who read the new PIL felt that it discussed the risks of orthognathic treatment in sufficient detail. Conclusion: The slight improvement in access to the BOS 'Your Jaw Surgery' website shows that patients do not necessarily choose to access information online despite its availability. The uptake of the new PIL was greater than reported patient engagement with the BOS 'Your Jaw Surgery' website, which indicates patients still value written information despite the availability of online resources.Keywords: orthognathic surgery, patient information resources, quality improvement project, risks
Procedia PDF Downloads 60503 The Efects of Viable Marketing on Sustainable Development
Authors: Gabriela Tutuanu
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The economic, social and environmental undesirable impact of the existing development pattern pushes to the adoption and use of a new development paradigm that of sustainable development. This paper intends to substantiate how the marketing can help the sustainable development. It begins with the subjects of sustainable development and sustainable marketing as they are discussed in literature. The sustainable development is a three dimensional concept which embeds the economic dimension, the social dimension and the environmental dimension that ask to have in view the simultaneous pursuit of economic prosperity, social equity and environmental quality. A major challenge to achieve these goals at business level and to integrate all three dimensions of sustainability is the sustainable marketing. The sustainable marketing is a relationship marketing that aims at building lasting relationships with the social and natural environment on a long-term thinking and futurity and this philosophy allows helping all three dimensions of sustainability. As marketing solutions that could contribute to the sustainable development. We advance the stimulation of sustainable demand, the constant innovation and improvement of sustainable products, the design and use of customized communication, a multichannel distribution network and the sale of sustainable products and services at fair prices. Their implementation will increase the economic, social and environmental sustainability at a large extent in the future if they are supported by political, governmental and legal authorities.Keywords: sustainable development, sustainable marketing, sustainable demand, sustainable product, credible communication, multi-channel distribution network, fair price
Procedia PDF Downloads 475502 Evaluation of the Impact of Information and Communications Technology (ICT) on the Accuracy of Preliminary Cost Estimates of Building Projects in Nigeria
Authors: Nofiu A. Musa, Olubola Babalola
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The study explored the effect of ICT on the accuracy of Preliminary Cost Estimates (PCEs) prepared by quantity surveying consulting firms in Nigeria for building projects, with a view to determining the desirability of the adoption and use of the technological innovation for preliminary estimating. Thus, data pertinent to the study were obtained through questionnaire survey conducted on a sample of one hundred and eight (108) quantity surveying firms selected from the list of registered firms compiled by the Nigerian Institute of Quantity Surveyors (NIQS), Lagos State Chapter through systematic random sampling. The data obtained were analyzed with SPSS version 17 using student’s t-tests at 5% significance level. The results obtained revealed that the mean bias and co-efficient of variation of the PCEs of the firms are significantly less at post ICT adoption period than the pre ICT adoption period, F < 0.05 in each case. The paper concluded that the adoption and use of the Technological Innovation (ICT) has significantly improved the accuracy of the Preliminary Cost Estimates (PCEs) of building projects, hence, it is desirable.Keywords: accepted tender price, accuracy, bias, building projects, consistency, information and communications technology, preliminary cost estimates
Procedia PDF Downloads 428501 Techno-Economic Analysis of Offshore Hybrid Energy Systems with Hydrogen Production
Authors: Anna Crivellari, Valerio Cozzani
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Even though most of the electricity produced in the entire world still comes from fossil fuels, new policies are being implemented in order to promote a more sustainable use of energy sources. Offshore renewable resources have become increasingly attractive thanks to the huge entity of power potentially obtained. However, the intermittent nature of renewables often limits the capacity of the systems and creates mismatches between supply and demand. Hydrogen is foreseen to be a promising vector to store and transport large amounts of excess renewable power by using existing oil and gas infrastructure. In this work, an offshore hybrid energy system integrating wind energy conversion with hydrogen production was conceptually defined and applied to offshore gas platforms. A techno-economic analysis was performed by considering two different locations for the installation of the innovative power system, i.e., the North Sea and the Adriatic Sea. The water depth, the distance of the platform from the onshore gas grid, the hydrogen selling price and the green financial incentive were some of the main factors taken into account in the comparison. The results indicated that the use of well-defined indicators allows to capture specifically different cost and revenue features of the analyzed systems, as well as to evaluate their competitiveness in the actual and future energy market.Keywords: cost analysis, energy efficiency assessment, hydrogen production, offshore wind energy
Procedia PDF Downloads 126500 Sharing Personal Information for Connection: The Effect of Social Exclusion on Consumer Self-Disclosure to Brands
Authors: Jiyoung Lee, Andrew D. Gershoff, Jerry Jisang Han
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Most extant research on consumer privacy concerns and their willingness to share personal data has focused on contextual factors (e.g., types of information collected, type of compensation) that lead to consumers’ personal information disclosure. Unfortunately, the literature lacks a clear understanding of how consumers’ incidental psychological needs may influence consumers’ decisions to share their personal information with companies or brands. In this research, we investigate how social exclusion, which is an increasing societal problem, especially since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, leads to increased information disclosure intentions for consumers. Specifically, we propose and find that when consumers become socially excluded, their desire for social connection increases, and this desire leads to a greater willingness to disclose their personal information with firms. The motivation to form and maintain interpersonal relationships is one of the most fundamental human needs, and many researchers have found that deprivation of belongingness has negative consequences. Given the negative effects of social exclusion and the universal need to affiliate with others, people respond to exclusion with a motivation for social reconnection, resulting in various cognitive and behavioral consequences, such as paying greater attention to social cues and conforming to others. Here, we propose personal information disclosure as another form of behavior that can satisfy such social connection needs. As self-disclosure can serve as a strategic tool in creating and developing social relationships, those who have been socially excluded and thus have greater social connection desires may be more willing to engage in self-disclosure behavior to satisfy such needs. We conducted four experiments to test how feelings of social exclusion can influence the extent to which consumers share their personal information with brands. Various manipulations and measures were used to demonstrate the robustness of our effects. Through the four studies, we confirmed that (1) consumers who have been socially excluded show greater willingness to share their personal information with brands and that (2) such an effect is driven by the excluded individuals’ desire for social connection. Our findings shed light on how the desire for social connection arising from exclusion influences consumers’ decisions to disclose their personal information to brands. We contribute to the consumer disclosure literature by uncovering a psychological need that influences consumers’ disclosure behavior. We also extend the social exclusion literature by demonstrating that exclusion influences not only consumers’ choice of products but also their decision to disclose personal information to brands.Keywords: consumer-brand relationship, consumer information disclosure, consumer privacy, social exclusion
Procedia PDF Downloads 123499 Analysis of User Complaints and Preferences by Conducting User Surveys to Ascertain the Need for Change in Current Design of Helmets
Authors: Pratham Baheti, Rohan Sanghi, Aditya Gupta
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In the largely populated city of New Delhi, India, there are a lot of people that travel by two-wheelers. Majority of the people wear helmets while traveling and know how important it is to wear helmets for their safety. Still, the number of deaths because of road accidents involving two-wheelers is significant. We had conducted a survey by traveling within and in the outskirts of Delhi so as to see the variation in data and in the opinion of people towards helmet being a safety device rather than to escape the traffic police. We conducted a survey at traffic junctions and crossings of all the stakeholders and collected feedback on the Helmet scenario in India. According to the survey, the possible reason for these deaths is that the people, being unaware of helmet safety standards (ISI standards for helmets), buy helmets with fake ISI mark from unauthorized helmet sellers for a cheap price. Also, for the people who do not wear a helmet at all or wear a helmet just because it is a law, the reasons that they do not want to wear a helmet is heavyweight, lack of ventilation, inconvenience due to a strap, and hair problems. To address all these problems, we are designing a helmet with reduced weight and also working on the Helmet’s retention system and ventilation. We plan to provide this product at a cheap cost whilst maintaining the ISI standards so that a larger section of the population would be able to afford the helmet.Keywords: safety, survey, ISI marks, stakeholders, helmet
Procedia PDF Downloads 279498 Optimal Evaluation of Weather Risk Insurance for Wheat
Authors: Slim Amami
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A model is developed to prevent the risks related to climate conditions in the agricultural sector. It will determine the yearly optimum premium to be paid by a farmer in order to reach his required turnover. The model is mainly based on both climatic stability and 'soft' responses of usually grown species to average climate variations at the same place and inside a safety ball which can be determined from past meteorological data. This allows the use of linear regression expression for dependence of production result in terms of driving meteorological parameters, main ones of which are daily average sunlight, rainfall and temperature. By a simple best parameter fit from the expert table drawn with professionals, optimal representation of yearly production is deduced from records of previous years, and yearly payback is evaluated from minimum yearly produced turnover. Optimal premium is then deduced, and gives the producer a useful bound for negotiating an offer by insurance companies to effectively protect their harvest. The application to wheat production in the French Oise department illustrates the reliability of the present model with as low as 6% difference between predicted and real data. The model can be adapted to almost every agricultural field by changing state parameters and calibrating their associated coefficients.Keywords: agriculture, database, meteorological factors, production model, optimal price
Procedia PDF Downloads 222497 Investigation of Mechanical Properties on natural fiber Reinforced Epoxy Composites
Authors: Gopi Kerekere Rangaraju, Madhu Puttegowda
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Natural fibres composites include coir, jute, bagasse, cotton, bamboo, and hemp. Natural fibers come from plants. These fibers contain lingo cellulose in nature. Natural fibers are eco-friendly; lightweight, strong, renewable, cheap, and biodegradable. The natural fibers can be used to reinforce both thermosetting and thermoplastic matrices. Thermosetting resins such as epoxy, polyester, polyurethane, and phenolic are commonly used composites requiring higher performance applications. They provide sufficient mechanical properties, in particular, stiffness and strength at acceptably low-price levels. Recent advances in natural fibers development are genetic engineering. The composites science offers significant opportunities for improved materials from renewable resources with enhanced support for global sustainability. Natural fibers composites are attractive to industry because of their low density and ecological advantages over conventional composites. These composites are gaining importance due to their non-carcinogenic and bio-degradable nature. Natural fibers composites are a very costeffective material, especially in building and construction, packaging, automobile and railway coach interiors, and storage devices. These composites are potential candidates for the replacement of high- cost glass fibers for low load bearing applications. Natural fibers have the advantages of low density, low cost, and biodegradabilityKeywords: PMC, basalt, coir, carbon fibers
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