Search results for: ‎maximum likelihood estimation‎
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 6130

Search results for: ‎maximum likelihood estimation‎

5320 The Hall Coefficient and Magnetoresistance in Rectangular Quantum Wires with Infinitely High Potential under the Influence of a Laser Radiation

Authors: Nguyen Thu Huong, Nguyen Quang Bau

Abstract:

The Hall Coefficient (HC) and the Magnetoresistance (MR) have been studied in two-dimensional systems. The HC and the MR in Rectangular Quantum Wire (RQW) subjected to a crossed DC electric field and magnetic field in the presence of a Strong Electromagnetic Wave (EMW) characterized by electric field are studied in this work. Using the quantum kinetic equation for electrons interacting with optical phonons, we obtain the analytic expressions for the HC and the MR with a dependence on magnetic field, EMW frequency, temperatures of systems and the length characteristic parameters of RQW. These expressions are different from those obtained for bulk semiconductors and cylindrical quantum wires. The analytical results are applied to GaAs/GaAs/Al. For this material, MR depends on the ratio of the EMW frequency to the cyclotron frequency. Indeed, MR reaches a minimum at the ratio 5/4, and when this ratio increases, it tends towards a saturation value. The HC can take negative or positive values. Each curve has one maximum and one minimum. When magnetic field increases, the HC is negative, achieves a minimum value and then increases suddenly to a maximum with a positive value. This phenomenon differs from the one observed in cylindrical quantum wire, which does not have maximum and minimum values.

Keywords: hall coefficient, rectangular quantum wires, electron-optical phonon interaction, quantum kinetic equation

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5319 Fatigue Life Estimation Using N-Code for Drive Shaft of Passenger Vehicle

Authors: Tae An Kim, Hyo Lim Kang, Hye Won Han, Seung Ho Han

Abstract:

The drive shaft of passenger vehicle has its own function such as transmitting the engine torque from the gearbox and differential gears to the wheels. It must also compensate for all variations in angle or length resulting from manoeuvring and deflection for perfect synchronization between joints. Torsional fatigue failures occur frequently at the connection parts of the spline joints in the end of the drive shaft. In this study, the fatigue life of a drive shaft of passenger vehicle was estimated by using the finite element analysis. A commercial software of n-Code was applied under twisting load conditions, i.e. 0~134kgf•m and 0~188kgf•m, in which the shear strain range-fatigue life relationship considering Signed Shear method, Smith-Watson-Topper equation, Neuber-Hoffman Seeger method, size sensitivity factor and surface roughness effect was taken into account. The estimated fatigue life was verified by a twisting load test of the real drive shaft in a test rig. (Human Resource Training Project for Industry Matched R & D, KIAT, N036200004).

Keywords: drive shaft, fatigue life estimation, passenger vehicle, shear strain range-fatigue life relationship, torsional fatigue failure

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5318 Frequency Analysis Using Multiple Parameter Probability Distributions for Rainfall to Determine Suitable Probability Distribution in Pakistan

Authors: Tasir Khan, Yejuan Wang

Abstract:

The study of extreme rainfall events is very important for flood management in river basins and the design of water conservancy infrastructure. Evaluation of quantiles of annual maximum rainfall (AMRF) is required in different environmental fields, agriculture operations, renewable energy sources, climatology, and the design of different structures. Therefore, the annual maximum rainfall (AMRF) was performed at different stations in Pakistan. Multiple probability distributions, log normal (LN), generalized extreme value (GEV), Gumbel (max), and Pearson type3 (P3) were used to find out the most appropriate distributions in different stations. The L moments method was used to evaluate the distribution parameters. Anderson darling test, Kolmogorov- Smirnov test, and chi-square test showed that two distributions, namely GUM (max) and LN, were the best appropriate distributions. The quantile estimate of a multi-parameter PD offers extreme rainfall through a specific location and is therefore important for decision-makers and planners who design and construct different structures. This result provides an indication of these multi-parameter distribution consequences for the study of sites and peak flow prediction and the design of hydrological maps. Therefore, this discovery can support hydraulic structure and flood management.

Keywords: RAMSE, multiple frequency analysis, annual maximum rainfall, L-moments

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5317 Study on Errors in Estimating the 3D Gaze Point for Different Pupil Sizes Using Eye Vergences

Authors: M. Pomianek, M. Piszczek, M. Maciejewski

Abstract:

The binocular eye tracking technology is increasingly being used in industry, entertainment and marketing analysis. In the case of virtual reality, eye tracking systems are already the basis for user interaction with the environment. In such systems, the high accuracy of determining the user's eye fixation point is very important due to the specificity of the virtual reality head-mounted display (HMD). Often, however, there are unknown errors occurring in the used eye tracking technology, as well as those resulting from the positioning of the devices in relation to the user's eyes. However, can the virtual environment itself influence estimation errors? The paper presents mathematical analyses and empirical studies of the determination of the fixation point and errors resulting from the change in the size of the pupil in response to the intensity of the displayed scene. The article contains both static laboratory tests as well as on the real user. Based on the research results, optimization solutions were proposed that would reduce the errors of gaze estimation errors. Studies show that errors in estimating the fixation point of vision can be minimized both by improving the pupil positioning algorithm in the video image and by using more precise methods to calibrate the eye tracking system in three-dimensional space.

Keywords: eye tracking, fixation point, pupil size, virtual reality

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5316 Study of Land Use Changes around an Archaeological Site Using Satellite Imagery Analysis: A Case Study of Hathnora, Madhya Pradesh, India

Authors: Pranita Shivankar, Arun Suryawanshi, Prabodhachandra Deshmukh, S. V. C. Kameswara Rao

Abstract:

Many undesirable significant changes in landscapes and the regions in the vicinity of historically important structures occur as impacts due to anthropogenic activities over a period of time. A better understanding of such influences using recently developed satellite remote sensing techniques helps in planning the strategies for minimizing the negative impacts on the existing environment. In 1982, a fossilized hominid skull cap was discovered at a site located along the northern bank of the east-west flowing river Narmada in the village Hathnora. Close to the same site, the presence of Late Acheulian and Middle Palaeolithic tools have been discovered in the immediately overlying pebbly gravel, suggesting that the ‘Narmada skull’ may be from the Middle Pleistocene age. The reviews of recently carried out research studies relevant to hominid remains all over the world from Late Acheulian and Middle Palaeolithic sites suggest succession and contemporaneity of cultures there, enhancing the importance of Hathnora as a rare precious site. In this context, the maximum likelihood classification using digital interpretation techniques was carried out for this study area using the satellite imagery from Landsat ETM+ for the year 2006 and Landsat TM (OLI and TIRS) for the year 2016. The overall accuracy of Land Use Land Cover (LULC) classification of 2016 imagery was around 77.27% based on ground truth data. The significant reduction in the main river course and agricultural activities and increase in the built-up area observed in remote sensing data analysis are undoubtedly the outcome of human encroachments in the vicinity of the eminent heritage site.

Keywords: cultural succession, digital interpretation, Hathnora, Homo Sapiens, Late Acheulian, Middle Palaeolithic

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5315 Green Synthesis and Characterization of Zinc and Ferrous Nanoparticles for Their Potent Therapeutic Approach

Authors: Mukesh Saran, Ashima Bagaria

Abstract:

Green nanotechnology is the most researched field in the current scenario. Herein we study the synthesis of Zinc and Ferrous nanoparticles using Moringa oleifera leaf extracts. Our protocol using established protocols heat treatment of plant extracts along with the solution of copper sulphate in the ratio of 1:1. The leaf extracts of Moringa oleifera were prepared in deionized water. Copper sulfate solution (1mM) was added to this, and the change in color of the solution was observed indicating the formation of Cu nanoparticles. The as biosynthesized Cu nanoparticles were characterized with the help of Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM), and Fourier Transforms Infrared Spectroscopy (FTIR). It was observed that the leaf extracts of Moringa oleifera can reduce copper ions into copper nanoparticles within 8 to 10 min of reaction time. The method thus can be used for rapid and eco-friendly biosynthesis of stable copper nanoparticles. Further, we checked their antimicrobial and antioxidant potential, and it was observed that maximum antioxidant activity was observed for the particles prepared using the heating method. The maximum antibacterial activity was observed in Streptomyces grisveus particles and in Triochoderma Reesei for the maximum antifungal activity. At present, we are engaged in studying the anti-inflammatory activities of these as prepared nanoparticles.

Keywords: green synthesis, antibacterial, antioxidant, antifungal, anti-inflammatory

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5314 Peculiarities of Snow Cover in Belarus

Authors: Aleh Meshyk, Anastasiya Vouchak

Abstract:

On the average snow covers Belarus for 75 days in the south-west and 125 days in the north-east. During the cold season snowpack often destroys due to thaws, especially at the beginning and end of winter. Over 50% of thawing days have a positive mean daily temperature, which results in complete snow melting. For instance, in December 10% of thaws occur at 4 С mean daily temperature. Stable snowpack lying for over a month forms in the north-east in the first decade of December but in the south-west in the third decade of December. The cover disappears in March: in the north-east in the last decade but in the south-west in the first decade. This research takes into account that precipitation falling during a cold season could be not only liquid and solid but also a mixed type (about 10-15 % a year). Another important feature of snow cover is its density. In Belarus, the density of freshly fallen snow ranges from 0.08-0.12 g/cm³ in the north-east to 0.12-0.17 g/cm³ in the south-west. Over time, snow settles under its weight and after melting and refreezing. Averaged annual density of snow at the end of January is 0.23-0.28 g/сm³, in February – 0.25-0.30 g/сm³, in March – 0.29-0.36 g/сm³. Sometimes it can be over 0.50 g/сm³ if the snow melts too fast. The density of melting snow saturated with water can reach 0.80 g/сm³. Average maximum of snow depth is 15-33 cm: minimum is in Brest, maximum is in Lyntupy. Maximum registered snow depth ranges within 40-72 cm. The water content in snowpack, as well as its depth and density, reaches its maximum in the second half of February – beginning of March. Spatial distribution of the amount of liquid in snow corresponds to the trend described above, i.e. it increases in the direction from south-west to north-east and on the highlands. Average annual value of maximum water content in snow ranges from 35 mm in the south-west to 80-100 mm in the north-east. The water content in snow is over 80 mm on the central Belarusian highland. In certain years it exceeds 2-3 times the average annual values. Moderate water content in snow (80-95 mm) is characteristic of western highlands. Maximum water content in snow varies over the country from 107 mm (Brest) to 207 mm (Novogrudok). Maximum water content in snow varies significantly in time (in years), which is confirmed by high variation coefficient (Cv). Maximums (0.62-0.69) are in the south and south-west of Belarus. Minimums (0.42-0.46) are in central and north-eastern Belarus where snow cover is more stable. Since 1987 most gauge stations in Belarus have observed a trend to a decrease in water content in snow. It is confirmed by the research. The biggest snow cover forms on the highlands in central and north-eastern Belarus. Novogrudok, Minsk, Volkovysk, and Sventayny highlands are a natural orographic barrier which prevents snow-bringing air masses from penetrating inside the country. The research is based on data from gauge stations in Belarus registered from 1944 to 2014.

Keywords: density, depth, snow, water content in snow

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5313 Comparative Study of Equivalent Linear and Non-Linear Ground Response Analysis for Rapar District of Kutch, India

Authors: Kulin Dave, Kapil Mohan

Abstract:

Earthquakes are considered to be the most destructive rapid-onset disasters human beings are exposed to. The amount of loss it brings in is sufficient to take careful considerations for designing of structures and facilities. Seismic Hazard Analysis is one such tool which can be used for earthquake resistant design. Ground Response Analysis is one of the most crucial and decisive steps for seismic hazard analysis. Rapar district of Kutch, Gujarat falls in Zone 5 of earthquake zone map of India and thus has high seismicity because of which it is selected for analysis. In total 8 bore-log data were studied at different locations in and around Rapar district. Different soil engineering properties were analyzed and relevant empirical correlations were used to calculate maximum shear modulus (Gmax) and shear wave velocity (Vs) for the soil layers. The soil was modeled using Pressure-Dependent Modified Kodner Zelasko (MKZ) model and the reference curve used for fitting was Seed and Idriss (1970) for sand and Darendeli (2001) for clay. Both Equivalent linear (EL), as well as Non-linear (NL) ground response analysis, has been carried out with Masing Hysteretic Re/Unloading formulation for comparison. Commercially available DEEPSOIL v. 7.0 software is used for this analysis. In this study an attempt is made to quantify ground response regarding generated acceleration time-history at top of the soil column, Response spectra calculation at 5 % damping and Fourier amplitude spectrum calculation. Moreover, the variation of Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), Maximum Displacement, Maximum Strain (in %), Maximum Stress Ratio, Mobilized Shear Stress with depth is also calculated. From the study, PGA values estimated in rocky strata are nearly same as bedrock motion and marginal amplification is observed in sandy silt and silty clays by both analyses. The NL analysis gives conservative results of maximum displacement as compared to EL analysis. Maximum strain predicted by both studies is very close to each other. And overall NL analysis is more efficient and realistic because it follows the actual hyperbolic stress-strain relationship, considers stiffness degradation and mobilizes stresses generated due to pore water pressure.

Keywords: DEEPSOIL v 7.0, ground response analysis, pressure-dependent modified Kodner Zelasko model, MKZ model, response spectra, shear wave velocity

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5312 Composite Base Natural Fiber

Authors: Noureddine Mahmoudi

Abstract:

The use of natural fibers in the development of composite materials is a sector in full expansion. These fibers were used for their low cost, their availability and their renewable character. The fibers of the palm (palm tree) were used as reinforcement in polypropylene (PP). The date palm fibers have some potential because of their ecological and economic interest. Both unmodified and compatibilized fibers are used. Compatibilization was carried out with the use of maleic anhydride copolymers. The morphology and mechanical properties were characterized by electron microscopy scanning (SEM) and tensile tests. The influence of fiber content on mechanical properties of composite PP / date palm has been evaluated and demonstrated, that the maximum stress and elongation decreases with increasing fiber volume rate. On the other hand, an increase of the tensile modulus has been noticed, but after the fibers improvement, the maximum stress increases significantly up to 25% weight.

Keywords: plant fiber, palm, SEM, compatibilizer

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5311 Determination of the Minimum Time and the Optimal Trajectory of a Moving Robot Using Picard's Method

Authors: Abbes Lounis, Kahina Louadj, Mohamed Aidene

Abstract:

This paper presents an optimal control problem applied to a robot; the problem is to determine a command which makes it possible to reach a final state from a given initial state in record time. The approach followed to solve this optimization problem with constraints on the control starts by presenting the equations of motion of the dynamic system then by applying Pontryagin's maximum principle (PMP) to determine the optimal control, and Picard's successive approximation method combined with the shooting method to solve the resulting differential system.

Keywords: robotics, Pontryagin's Maximum Principle, PMP, Picard's method, shooting method, non-linear differential systems

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5310 Estimation of Reservoir Capacity and Sediment Deposition Using Remote Sensing Data

Authors: Odai Ibrahim Mohammed Al Balasmeh, Tapas Karmaker, Richa Babbar

Abstract:

In this study, the reservoir capacity and sediment deposition were estimated using remote sensing data. The satellite images were synchronized with water level and storage capacity to find out the change in sediment deposition due to soil erosion and transport by streamflow. The water bodies spread area was estimated using vegetation indices, e.g., normalize differences vegetation index (NDVI) and normalize differences water index (NDWI). The 3D reservoir bathymetry was modeled by integrated water level, storage capacity, and area. From the models of different time span, the change in reservoir storage capacity was estimated. Another reservoir with known water level, storage capacity, area, and sediment deposition was used to validate the estimation technique. The t-test was used to assess the results between observed and estimated reservoir capacity and sediment deposition.

Keywords: satellite data, normalize differences vegetation index, NDVI, normalize differences water index, NDWI, reservoir capacity, sedimentation, t-test hypothesis

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5309 Estimation of Aquifer Properties Using Pumping Tests: Case Study of Pydibhimavaram Industrial Area, Srikakulam, India

Authors: G. Venkata Rao, P. Kalpana, R. Srinivasa Rao

Abstract:

Adequate and reliable estimates of aquifer parameters are of utmost importance for proper management of vital groundwater resources. At present scenario the ground water is polluted because of industrial waste disposed over the land and the contaminants are transported in the aquifer from one area to another area which is depending on the characteristics of the aquifer and contaminants. To know the contaminant transport, the accurate estimation of aquifer properties is highly needed. Conventionally, these properties are estimated through pumping tests carried out on water wells. The occurrence and movement of ground water in the aquifer are characteristically defined by the aquifer parameters. The pumping (aquifer) test is the standard technique for estimating various hydraulic properties of aquifer systems, viz, transmissivity (T), hydraulic conductivity (K), storage coefficient (S) etc., for which the graphical method is widely used. The study area for conducting pumping test is Pydibheemavaram Industrial area near the coastal belt of Srikulam, AP, India. The main objective of the present work is to estimate the aquifer properties for developing contaminant transport model for the study area.

Keywords: aquifer, contaminant transport, hydraulic conductivity, industrial waste, pumping test

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5308 Estimation of Emanation Properties of Kimberlites and Host Rocks of Lomonosov Diamond Deposit in Russia

Authors: E. Yu. Yakovlev, A. V. Puchkov

Abstract:

The study is devoted to experimental work on the assessment of emanation properties of kimberlites and host rocks of the Lomonosov diamond deposit of the Arkhangelsk diamondiferous province. The aim of the study is estimation the factors influencing on formation of the radon field over kimberlite pipes. For various types of rocks composing the kimberlite pipe and near-pipe space, the following parameters were measured: porosity, density, radium-226 activity, activity of free radon and emanation coefficient. The research results showed that the largest amount of free radon is produced by rocks of near-pipe space, which are the Vendian host deposits and are characterized by high values of the emanation coefficient, radium activity and porosity. The lowest values of these parameters are characteristic of vent-facies kimberlites, which limit the formation of activity of free radon in body of the pipe. The results of experimental work confirm the prospects of using emanation methods for prospecting of kimberlite pipes.

Keywords: emanation coefficient, kimberlites, porosity, radon volumetric activity

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5307 Effect of MPPT and THD in Grid-Connected Photovoltaic System

Authors: Sajjad Yahaghifar

Abstract:

From the end of the last century, the importance and use of renewable energy sources have gained prominence, due not only by the fossil fuels dependence reduction, but mainly by environmental reasons related to climate change and the effects to the humanity. Consequently, solar energy has been arousing interest in several countries for being a technology considered clean, with reduced environmental impact. The output power of photo voltaic (PV) arrays is always changing with weather conditions,i.e., solar irradiation and atmospheric temperature. Therefore, maximum power point tracking (MPPT) control to extract maximum power from the PV arrays at real time becomes indispensable in PV generation system. This paper Study MPPT and total harmonic distortion (THD) in the city of Tabriz, Iran with the grid-connected PV system as distributed generation.

Keywords: MPPT, THD, grid-connected, PV system

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5306 Automatic Post Stroke Detection from Computed Tomography Images

Authors: C. Gopi Jinimole, A. Harsha

Abstract:

For detecting strokes, Computed Tomography (CT) scan is preferred for imaging the abnormalities or infarction in the brain. Because of the problems in the window settings used to evaluate brain CT images, they are very poor in the early stage infarction detection. This paper presents an automatic estimation method for the window settings of the CT images for proper contrast of the hyper infarction present in the brain. In the proposed work the window width is estimated automatically for each slice and the window centre is changed to a new value of 31HU, which is the average of the HU values of the grey matter and white matter in the brain. The automatic window width estimation is based on the average of median of statistical central moments. Thus with the new suggested window centre and estimated window width, the hyper infarction or post-stroke regions in CT brain images are properly detected. The proposed approach assists the radiologists in CT evaluation for early quantitative signs of delayed stroke, which leads to severe hemorrhage in the future can be prevented by providing timely medication to the patients.

Keywords: computed tomography (CT), hyper infarction or post stroke region, Hounsefield Unit (HU), window centre (WC), window width (WW)

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5305 Satellite Derived Evapotranspiration and Turbulent Heat Fluxes Using Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS)

Authors: Muhammad Tayyab Afzal, Muhammad Arslan, Mirza Muhammad Waqar

Abstract:

One of the key components of the water cycle is evapotranspiration (ET), which represents water consumption by vegetated and non-vegetated surfaces. Conventional techniques for measurements of ET are point based and representative of the local scale only. Satellite remote sensing data with large area coverage and high temporal frequency provide representative measurements of several relevant biophysical parameters required for estimation of ET at regional scales. The objective is of this research is to exploit satellite data in order to estimate evapotranspiration. This study uses Surface Energy Balance System (SEBS) model to calculate daily actual evapotranspiration (ETa) in Larkana District, Sindh Pakistan using Landsat TM data for clouds-free days. As there is no flux tower in the study area for direct measurement of latent heat flux or evapotranspiration and sensible heat flux, therefore, the model estimated values of ET were compared with reference evapotranspiration (ETo) computed by FAO-56 Penman Monteith Method using meteorological data. For a country like Pakistan, agriculture by irrigation in the river basins is the largest user of fresh water. For the better assessment and management of irrigation water requirement, the estimation of consumptive use of water for agriculture is very important because it is the main consumer of water. ET is yet an essential issue of water imbalance due to major loss of irrigation water and precipitation on cropland. As large amount of irrigated water is lost through ET, therefore its accurate estimation can be helpful for efficient management of irrigation water. Results of this study can be used to analyse surface conditions, i.e. temperature, energy budgets and relevant characteristics. Through this information we can monitor vegetation health and suitable agricultural conditions and can take controlling steps to increase agriculture production.

Keywords: SEBS, remote sensing, evapotranspiration, ETa

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5304 Impact of ‎Foliar ‎Formulations of Macro and Micro Nutrients on ‎the ‎Tritrophic Association of Wheat Aphid ‎and Entomophagous Insects

Authors: Muhammad Sufyan, Muhammad J. Arif, Muhammad Arshad, Usman Shoukat

Abstract:

In Pakistan, wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) is seriously attacked by the wheat ‎aphid. Naturally, bio control agents play an important role in managing wheat aphid. However, association ‎among pest, natural enemies and host plant is highly affected by food resource ‎concentration and predator/parasitoid factor of any ecosystem. The present ‎study was conducted to estimate the effect of different dose levels of macro ‎and micronutrients on the aphid population and its entomophagous insect ‎on wheat and their tri-trophic association. The experiment was laid out in ‎RCBD with six different combinations of macro and micronutrients and a control treatment. The data was initiated from the second week of ‎the February till the maturity of the crop. Data regarding aphid population and ‎coccinellids counts were collected on weekly basis and subjected to analysis of ‎variance and mean comparison. The data revealed that aphid ‎population was at peak in the last week of March. Coccinellids population ‎increased side by side with aphid population and declined after second week of ‎April. Aphid parasitism was maximum 25% on recommended dose of Double and ‎Flasher and minimum 8.67% on control treatment. Maximum aphid population was observed on first April with 687.2 specimens. However, this maximum population was shown against the application of Double + Flasher treatment. The minimum aphid population was recorded after the application of HiK Gold + Flasher recommended dose on 15th April. The coccinellids population was at peak level at on 8th April and against the treatment double recommended dose of HiK gold + Flasher. Amount of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium percentage dry leaves ‎components was maximum (2.33, 0.18 and 2.62 % dry leaves. respectively) in ‎plots treated with recommended double dose mixture of Double + Flasher and ‎Hi-K Gold + Flasher while it was minimum (1.43, 0.12 and 1.77 dry leaves ‎respectively) in plots where no nutrients applied. The result revealed that maximum parasitism was at recommended level of micro and macro nutrients application.‎ Maximum micro nutrients zinc, copper, manganese, iron and boron found with values 46.67 ppm, 21.81 ppm, 62.35 ppm, 152.69 ppm and 36.78 respectively. The result also showed that Over application of macro and micro nutrients should be avoided because it do not help in pest control, conversely it may cause stress on plant. The treatment Double and Flasher recommended dose ratio is almost comparable with recommended dose and present studies confirm its usefulness on wheat.

Keywords: entomophagous insects, macro and micro nutrients, tri-trophic, wheat aphid

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5303 Dose Evaluations with SNAP/RADTRAD for Loss of Coolant Accidents in a BWR6 Nuclear Power Plant

Authors: Kai Chun Yang, Shao-Wen Chen, Jong-Rong Wang, Chunkuan Shih, Jung-Hua Yang, Hsiung-Chih Chen, Wen-Sheng Hsu

Abstract:

In this study, we build RADionuclide Transport, Removal And Dose Estimation/Symbolic Nuclear Analysis Package (SNAP/RADTRAD) model of Kuosheng Nuclear Power Plant which is based on the Final Safety Evaluation Report (FSAR) and other data of Kuosheng Nuclear Power Plant. It is used to estimate the radiation dose of the Exclusion Area Boundary (EAB), the Low Population Zone (LPZ), and the control room following ‘release from the containment’ case in Loss Of Coolant Accident (LOCA). The RADTRAD analysis result shows that the evaluation dose at EAB, LPZ, and the control room are close to the FSAR data, and all of the doses are lower than the regulatory limits. At last, we do a sensitivity analysis and observe that the evaluation doses increase as the intake rate of the control room increases.

Keywords: RADTRAD, radionuclide transport, removal and dose estimation, snap, symbolic nuclear analysis package, boiling water reactor, NPP, kuosheng

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5302 Use of Multistage Transition Regression Models for Credit Card Income Prediction

Authors: Denys Osipenko, Jonathan Crook

Abstract:

Because of the variety of the card holders’ behaviour types and income sources each consumer account can be transferred to a variety of states. Each consumer account can be inactive, transactor, revolver, delinquent, defaulted and requires an individual model for the income prediction. The estimation of transition probabilities between statuses at the account level helps to avoid the memorylessness of the Markov Chains approach. This paper investigates the transition probabilities estimation approaches to credit cards income prediction at the account level. The key question of empirical research is which approach gives more accurate results: multinomial logistic regression or multistage conditional logistic regression with binary target. Both models have shown moderate predictive power. Prediction accuracy for conditional logistic regression depends on the order of stages for the conditional binary logistic regression. On the other hand, multinomial logistic regression is easier for usage and gives integrate estimations for all states without priorities. Thus further investigations can be concentrated on alternative modeling approaches such as discrete choice models.

Keywords: multinomial regression, conditional logistic regression, credit account state, transition probability

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5301 Determining the Width and Depths of Cut in Milling on the Basis of a Multi-Dexel Model

Authors: Jens Friedrich, Matthias A. Gebele, Armin Lechler, Alexander Verl

Abstract:

Chatter vibrations and process instabilities are the most important factors limiting the productivity of the milling process. Chatter can leads to damage of the tool, the part or the machine tool. Therefore, the estimation and prediction of the process stability is very important. The process stability depends on the spindle speed, the depth of cut and the width of cut. In milling, the process conditions are defined in the NC-program. While the spindle speed is directly coded in the NC-program, the depth and width of cut are unknown. This paper presents a new simulation based approach for the prediction of the depth and width of cut of a milling process. The prediction is based on a material removal simulation with an analytically represented tool shape and a multi-dexel approach for the work piece. The new calculation method allows the direct estimation of the depth and width of cut, which are the influencing parameters of the process stability, instead of the removed volume as existing approaches do. The knowledge can be used to predict the stability of new, unknown parts. Moreover with an additional vibration sensor, the stability lobe diagram of a milling process can be estimated and improved based on the estimated depth and width of cut.

Keywords: dexel, process stability, material removal, milling

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5300 Contrast Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Angiography in Rats with Gadobenate Dimeglumine at 3T

Authors: Jao Jo-Chi, Chen Yen-Ku, Jaw Twei-Shiun, Chen Po-Chou

Abstract:

This study aimed to investigate the magnetic resonance (MR) signal enhancement ratio (ER) of contrast-enhanced MR angiography (CE-MRA) in normal rats with gadobenate dimeglumine (Gd-BOPTA) using a clinical 3T scanner and an extremity coil. The relaxivities of Gd-BOPTA with saline only and with 4.5 % human serum albumin (HSA) were also measured. Compared with Gadolinium diethylenetriamine pentaacetic acid (Gd-DTPA), Gd-BOPTA had higher relaxivities. The maximum ER of Aorta (ERa), kidney, liver and muscle with Gd-BOPTA were higher than those with Gd-DTPA. The maximum ERa appeared at 1.2 min and decayed to half at 10 min after Gd-BOPTA injection. This information is helpful for the design of CE-MRA study of rats.

Keywords: contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance angiography, Gd-BOPTA, Gd-DTPA, rat

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5299 Effects of Tensile Pre-Stresses on Corrosion Behavior of AISI 304 Stainless Steel in 1N H2SO4

Authors: Sami Ibrahim Jafar, Israa Abud Alkadir, Samah Abdul Kareem Khashin

Abstract:

The aim of this work is to assess the influence of tensile pre-stresses on the microstructure and corrosion behavior of the AISI304 stainless steel in 1N H2SO4 austenitic stainless steel. Samples of this stainless steel either with pre-stresses, corresponding to [255, 305, 355, 405, 455, 505, 555, 605 and σf] MPa induced by tensile tests, or without pre-stresses (as received), were characterized regarding their microstructure to investigate the pre-tensile stress effects on the corrosion behavior. The results showed that the corrosion rate of elastic pre-stresses 304 stainless steel was very little increased compared with that of as received specimens. The corrosion rate increases after applying pre-stress between (σ255 - σ 455) MPa. The microstructure showed that the austenitic grains begin to deform in the direction of applied pre-stresses. The maximum hardness at this region was (229.2) Hv, but at higher pre-stress (σ455 – σ 605) MPa unanticipated occurrence, the corrosion rate decreases. The microstructure inspection shows the deformed austenitic grain and ά-martensitic phase needle are appeared inside austenitic grains and the hardness reached the maximum value (332.433) Hv. The results showed that the corrosion rate increases at the values of pre-stresses between (σ605 – σf) MPa., which is inspected the result. The necking of gauge length of specimens occurs in specimens and this leads to deterioration in original properties and the corrosion rate reaches the maximum value.

Keywords: tensile pre-stresses, corrosion rate, austenitic stainless steel, hardness

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5298 Multiple Linear Regression for Rapid Estimation of Subsurface Resistivity from Apparent Resistivity Measurements

Authors: Sabiu Bala Muhammad, Rosli Saad

Abstract:

Multiple linear regression (MLR) models for fast estimation of true subsurface resistivity from apparent resistivity field measurements are developed and assessed in this study. The parameters investigated were apparent resistivity (ρₐ), horizontal location (X) and depth (Z) of measurement as the independent variables; and true resistivity (ρₜ) as the dependent variable. To achieve linearity in both resistivity variables, datasets were first transformed into logarithmic domain following diagnostic checks of normality of the dependent variable and heteroscedasticity to ensure accurate models. Four MLR models were developed based on hierarchical combination of the independent variables. The generated MLR coefficients were applied to another data set to estimate ρₜ values for validation. Contours of the estimated ρₜ values were plotted and compared to the observed data plots at the colour scale and blanking for visual assessment. The accuracy of the models was assessed using coefficient of determination (R²), standard error (SE) and weighted mean absolute percentage error (wMAPE). It is concluded that the MLR models can estimate ρₜ for with high level of accuracy.

Keywords: apparent resistivity, depth, horizontal location, multiple linear regression, true resistivity

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5297 A Decadal Flood Assessment Using Time-Series Satellite Data in Cambodia

Authors: Nguyen-Thanh Son

Abstract:

Flood is among the most frequent and costliest natural hazards. The flood disasters especially affect the poor people in rural areas, who are heavily dependent on agriculture and have lower incomes. Cambodia is identified as one of the most climate-vulnerable countries in the world, ranked 13th out of 181 countries most affected by the impacts of climate change. Flood monitoring is thus a strategic priority at national and regional levels because policymakers need reliable spatial and temporal information on flood-prone areas to form successful monitoring programs to reduce possible impacts on the country’s economy and people’s likelihood. This study aims to develop methods for flood mapping and assessment from MODIS data in Cambodia. We processed the data for the period from 2000 to 2017, following three main steps: (1) data pre-processing to construct smooth time-series vegetation and water surface indices, (2) delineation of flood-prone areas, and (3) accuracy assessment. The results of flood mapping were verified with the ground reference data, indicating the overall accuracy of 88.7% and a Kappa coefficient of 0.77, respectively. These results were reaffirmed by close agreement between the flood-mapping area and ground reference data, with the correlation coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.94. The seasonally flooded areas observed for 2010, 2015, and 2016 were remarkably smaller than other years, mainly attributed to the El Niño weather phenomenon exacerbated by impacts of climate change. Eventually, although several sources potentially lowered the mapping accuracy of flood-prone areas, including image cloud contamination, mixed-pixel issues, and low-resolution bias between the mapping results and ground reference data, our methods indicated the satisfactory results for delineating spatiotemporal evolutions of floods. The results in the form of quantitative information on spatiotemporal flood distributions could be beneficial to policymakers in evaluating their management strategies for mitigating the negative effects of floods on agriculture and people’s likelihood in the country.

Keywords: MODIS, flood, mapping, Cambodia

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5296 Introducing Two Species of Parastagonospora (Phaeosphaeriaceae) on Grasses from Italy and Russia, Based on Morphology and Phylogeny

Authors: Ishani D. Goonasekara, Erio Camporesi, Timur Bulgakov, Rungtiwa Phookamsak, Kevin D. Hyde

Abstract:

Phaeosphaeriaceae comprises a large number of species occurring mainly on grasses and cereal crops as endophytes, saprobes and especially pathogens. Parastagonospora is an important genus in Phaeosphaeriaceae that includes pathogens causing leaf and glume blotch on cereal crops. Currently, there are fifteen Parastagonospora species described, including both pathogens and saprobes. In this study, one sexual morph species and an asexual morph species, occurring as saprobes on members of Poaceae are introduced based on morphology and a combined molecular analysis of the LSU, SSU, ITS, and RPB2 gene sequence data. The sexual morph species Parastagonospora elymi was isolated from a Russian sample of Elymus repens, a grass commonly known as couch grass, and important for grazing animals, as a weed and used in traditional Austrian medicine. P. elymi is similar to the sexual morph of P. avenae in having cylindrical asci, bearing 8, overlapping biseriate, fusiform ascospores but can be distinguished by its subglobose to conical shaped, wider ascomata. In addition, no sheath was observed surrounding the ascospores. The asexual morph species was isolated from a specimen from Italy, on Dactylis glomerata, a commonly found grass distributed in temperate regions. It is introduced as Parastagonospora macrouniseptata, a coelomycete, and bears a close resemblance to P. allouniseptata and P. uniseptata in having globose to subglobose, pycnidial conidiomata and hyaline, cylindrical, 1-septate conidia. However, the new species could be distinguished in having much larger conidiomata. In the phylogenetic analysis which consisted of a maximum likelihood and Bayesian analysis P. elymi showed low bootstrap support, but well segregated from other strains within the Parastagonospora clade. P. neoallouniseptata formed a sister clade with P. allouniseptata with high statistical support.

Keywords: dothideomycetes, multi-gene analysis, Poaceae, saprobes, taxonomy

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5295 The Effect of Institutions on Economic Growth: An Analysis Based on Bayesian Panel Data Estimation

Authors: Mohammad Anwar, Shah Waliullah

Abstract:

This study investigated panel data regression models. This paper used Bayesian and classical methods to study the impact of institutions on economic growth from data (1990-2014), especially in developing countries. Under the classical and Bayesian methodology, the two-panel data models were estimated, which are common effects and fixed effects. For the Bayesian approach, the prior information is used in this paper, and normal gamma prior is used for the panel data models. The analysis was done through WinBUGS14 software. The estimated results of the study showed that panel data models are valid models in Bayesian methodology. In the Bayesian approach, the effects of all independent variables were positively and significantly affected by the dependent variables. Based on the standard errors of all models, we must say that the fixed effect model is the best model in the Bayesian estimation of panel data models. Also, it was proved that the fixed effect model has the lowest value of standard error, as compared to other models.

Keywords: Bayesian approach, common effect, fixed effect, random effect, Dynamic Random Effect Model

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5294 Phase-Averaged Analysis of Three-Dimensional Vorticity in the Wake of Two Yawed Side-By-Side Circular Cylinders

Authors: T. Zhou, S. F. Mohd Razali, Y. Zhou, H. Wang, L. Cheng

Abstract:

The wake flow behind two yawed side-by-side circular cylinders is investigated using a three-dimensional vorticity probe. Four yaw angles (α), namely, 0°, 15°, 30° and 45° and two cylinder spacing ratios T* of 1.7 and 3.0 were tested. For T* = 3.0, there exist two vortex streets and the cylinders behave as independent and isolated ones. The maximum contour value of the coherent stream-wise vorticity is only about 10% of that of the spanwise vorticity. With the increase of α, increases whereas decreases. At α = 45°, is about 67% of. For T* = 1.7, only a single peak is detected in the energy spectrum. The span-wise vorticity contours have an organized pattern only at α = 0°. The maximum coherent vorticity contours of and for T* = 1.7 are about 30% and 7% of those for T* = 3.0. The independence principle (IP) in terms of Strouhal numbers is applicable in both wakes when α< 40°.

Keywords: circular cylinder wake, vorticity, vortex shedding, side-by-side

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5293 Landfill Leachate: A Promising Substrate for Microbial Fuel Cells

Authors: Jayesh M. Sonawane, Prakash C. Ghosh

Abstract:

Landfill leachate emerges as a promising feedstock for microbial fuel cells (MFCs). In the present investigation, direct air-breathing cathode-based MFCs are fabricated to investigate the potential of landfill leachate. Three MFCs that have different cathode areas are fabricated and investigated for 17 days under open circuit conditions. The maximum open circuit voltage (OCV) is observed to be as high as 1.29 V. The maximum cathode area specific power density achieved in the reactor is 1513 mW m-2. Further studies are under progress to understand the origin of high OCV obtained from landfill leachate-based MFCs.

Keywords: microbial fuel cells, landfill leachate, air-breathing cathode, performance study

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5292 Least Squares Solution for Linear Quadratic Gaussian Problem with Stochastic Approximation Approach

Authors: Sie Long Kek, Wah June Leong, Kok Lay Teo

Abstract:

Linear quadratic Gaussian model is a standard mathematical model for the stochastic optimal control problem. The combination of the linear quadratic estimation and the linear quadratic regulator allows the state estimation and the optimal control policy to be designed separately. This is known as the separation principle. In this paper, an efficient computational method is proposed to solve the linear quadratic Gaussian problem. In our approach, the Hamiltonian function is defined, and the necessary conditions are derived. In addition to this, the output error is defined and the least-square optimization problem is introduced. By determining the first-order necessary condition, the gradient of the sum squares of output error is established. On this point of view, the stochastic approximation approach is employed such that the optimal control policy is updated. Within a given tolerance, the iteration procedure would be stopped and the optimal solution of the linear-quadratic Gaussian problem is obtained. For illustration, an example of the linear-quadratic Gaussian problem is studied. The result shows the efficiency of the approach proposed. In conclusion, the applicability of the approach proposed for solving the linear quadratic Gaussian problem is highly demonstrated.

Keywords: iteration procedure, least squares solution, linear quadratic Gaussian, output error, stochastic approximation

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5291 Confidence Envelopes for Parametric Model Selection Inference and Post-Model Selection Inference

Authors: I. M. L. Nadeesha Jayaweera, Adao Alex Trindade

Abstract:

In choosing a candidate model in likelihood-based modeling via an information criterion, the practitioner is often faced with the difficult task of deciding just how far up the ranked list to look. Motivated by this pragmatic necessity, we construct an uncertainty band for a generalized (model selection) information criterion (GIC), defined as a criterion for which the limit in probability is identical to that of the normalized log-likelihood. This includes common special cases such as AIC & BIC. The method starts from the asymptotic normality of the GIC for the joint distribution of the candidate models in an independent and identically distributed (IID) data framework and proceeds by deriving the (asymptotically) exact distribution of the minimum. The calculation of an upper quantile for its distribution then involves the computation of multivariate Gaussian integrals, which is amenable to efficient implementation via the R package "mvtnorm". The performance of the methodology is tested on simulated data by checking the coverage probability of nominal upper quantiles and compared to the bootstrap. Both methods give coverages close to nominal for large samples, but the bootstrap is two orders of magnitude slower. The methodology is subsequently extended to two other commonly used model structures: regression and time series. In the regression case, we derive the corresponding asymptotically exact distribution of the minimum GIC invoking Lindeberg-Feller type conditions for triangular arrays and are thus able to similarly calculate upper quantiles for its distribution via multivariate Gaussian integration. The bootstrap once again provides a default competing procedure, and we find that similar comparison performance metrics hold as for the IID case. The time series case is complicated by far more intricate asymptotic regime for the joint distribution of the model GIC statistics. Under a Gaussian likelihood, the default in most packages, one needs to derive the limiting distribution of a normalized quadratic form for a realization from a stationary series. Under conditions on the process satisfied by ARMA models, a multivariate normal limit is once again achieved. The bootstrap can, however, be employed for its computation, whence we are once again in the multivariate Gaussian integration paradigm for upper quantile evaluation. Comparisons of this bootstrap-aided semi-exact method with the full-blown bootstrap once again reveal a similar performance but faster computation speeds. One of the most difficult problems in contemporary statistical methodological research is to be able to account for the extra variability introduced by model selection uncertainty, the so-called post-model selection inference (PMSI). We explore ways in which the GIC uncertainty band can be inverted to make inferences on the parameters. This is being attempted in the IID case by pivoting the CDF of the asymptotically exact distribution of the minimum GIC. For inference one parameter at a time and a small number of candidate models, this works well, whence the attained PMSI confidence intervals are wider than the MLE-based Wald, as expected.

Keywords: model selection inference, generalized information criteria, post model selection, Asymptotic Theory

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