Search results for: daily probability model
Commenced in January 2007
Frequency: Monthly
Edition: International
Paper Count: 19531

Search results for: daily probability model

11281 Effectiveness of a Malaysian Workplace Intervention Study on Physical Activity Levels

Authors: M. Z. Bin Mohd Ghazali, N. C. Wilson, A. F. Bin Ahmad Fuad, M. A. H. B. Musa, M. U. Mohamad Sani, F. Zulkifli, M. S. Zainal Abidin

Abstract:

Physical activity levels are low in Malaysia and this study was undertaken to determine if a four week work-based intervention program would be effective in changing physical activity levels. The study was conducted in a Malaysian Government Department and had three stages: baseline data collection, four-week intervention and two-month post intervention data collection. During the intervention and two-month post intervention phases, physical activity levels (determined by a pedometer) and basic health profiles (BMI, abdominal obesity, blood pressure) were measured. Staff (58 males, 47 females) with an average age of 33 years completed baseline data collection. Pedometer steps averaged 7,102 steps/day at baseline, although male step counts were significantly higher than females (7,861 vs. 6114). Health profiles were poor: over 50% were overweight/obese (males 66%, females 40%); hypertension (males 23%, females 6%); excess waist circumference (males 52%, females 17%). While 86 staff participated in the intervention, only 49 regularly reported their steps. There was a significant increase (17%) in average daily steps from 8,965 (week 1) to 10,436 (week 4). Unfortunately, participation in the intervention program was avoided by the less healthy staff. Two months after the intervention there was no significant difference in average steps/day, despite the fact that 89% of staff reporting they planned to make long-term changes to their lifestyle. An unexpected average increase of 2kg in body weight occurred in participants, although this was less than the 5.6kg in non-participants. A number of recommendations are made for future interventions, including the conclusion that pedometers were a useful tool and popular with participants.

Keywords: pedometers, walking, health, intervention

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11280 Improving Efficiency and Effectiveness of FMEA Studies

Authors: Joshua Loiselle

Abstract:

This paper discusses the challenges engineering teams face in conducting Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) studies. This paper focuses on the specific topic of improving the efficiency and effectiveness of FMEA studies. Modern economic needs and increased business competition require engineers to constantly develop newer and better solutions within shorter timeframes and tighter margins. In addition, documentation requirements for meeting standards/regulatory compliance and customer needs are becoming increasingly complex and verbose. Managing open actions and continuous improvement activities across all projects, product variations, and processes in addition to daily engineering tasks is cumbersome, time consuming, and is susceptible to errors, omissions, and non-conformances. FMEA studies are proven methods for improving products and processes while subsequently reducing engineering workload and improving machine and resource availability through a pre-emptive, systematic approach of identifying, analyzing, and improving high-risk components. If implemented correctly, FMEA studies significantly reduce costs and improve productivity. However, the value of an effective FMEA is often shrouded by a lack of clarity and structure, misconceptions, and previous experiences and, as such, FMEA studies are frequently grouped with the other required information and documented retrospectively in preparation of customer requirements or audits. Performing studies in this way only adds cost to a project and perpetuates the misnomer that FMEA studies are not value-added activities. This paper discusses the benefits of effective FMEA studies, the challenges related to conducting FMEA studies, best practices for efficiently overcoming challenges via structure and automation, and the benefits of implementing those practices.

Keywords: FMEA, quality, APQP, PPAP

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11279 The Layout Analysis of Handwriting Characters and the Fusion of Multi-style Ancient Books’ Background

Authors: Yaolin Tian, Shanxiong Chen, Fujia Zhao, Xiaoyu Lin, Hailing Xiong

Abstract:

Ancient books are significant culture inheritors and their background textures convey the potential history information. However, multi-style texture recovery of ancient books has received little attention. Restricted by insufficient ancient textures and complex handling process, the generation of ancient textures confronts with new challenges. For instance, training without sufficient data usually brings about overfitting or mode collapse, so some of the outputs are prone to be fake. Recently, image generation and style transfer based on deep learning are widely applied in computer vision. Breakthroughs within the field make it possible to conduct research upon multi-style texture recovery of ancient books. Under the circumstances, we proposed a network of layout analysis and image fusion system. Firstly, we trained models by using Deep Convolution Generative against Networks (DCGAN) to synthesize multi-style ancient textures; then, we analyzed layouts based on the Position Rearrangement (PR) algorithm that we proposed to adjust the layout structure of foreground content; at last, we realized our goal by fusing rearranged foreground texts and generated background. In experiments, diversified samples such as ancient Yi, Jurchen, Seal were selected as our training sets. Then, the performances of different fine-turning models were gradually improved by adjusting DCGAN model in parameters as well as structures. In order to evaluate the results scientifically, cross entropy loss function and Fréchet Inception Distance (FID) are selected to be our assessment criteria. Eventually, we got model M8 with lowest FID score. Compared with DCGAN model proposed by Radford at el., the FID score of M8 improved by 19.26%, enhancing the quality of the synthetic images profoundly.

Keywords: deep learning, image fusion, image generation, layout analysis

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11278 Financial Information and Collective Bargaining: Conflicting or Complementing

Authors: Humayun Murshed, Shibly Abdullah

Abstract:

The research conducted in early seventies apparently assumed the existence of a universal decision model for union negotiators and furthermore tended to regard financial information as a ‘neutral’ input into a rational decision-making process. However, research in the eighties began to question the neutrality of financial information as an input in collective bargaining rather viewing it as a potentially effective means for controlling the labour force. Furthermore, this later research also started challenging the simplistic assumptions relating particularly to union objectives which have underpinned the earlier search for universal union decision models. Despite the above developments there seems to be a dearth of studies in developing countries concerning the use of financial information in collective bargaining. This paper seeks to begin to remedy this deficiency. Utilising a case study approach based on two enterprises, one in the public sector and the other a multinational, the universal decision model is rejected and it is argued that the decision whether or not to use financial information is a contingent one and such a contingency is largely defined by the context and environment in which both union and management negotiators work. An attempt is also made to identify the factors constraining as well as promoting the use of financial information in collective bargaining, these being regarded as unique to the organizations within which the case studies are conducted.

Keywords: collective bargaining, developing countries, disclosures, financial information

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11277 A Long Short-Term Memory Based Deep Learning Model for Corporate Bond Price Predictions

Authors: Vikrant Gupta, Amrit Goswami

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The fixed income market forms the basis of the modern financial market. All other assets in financial markets derive their value from the bond market. Owing to its over-the-counter nature, corporate bonds have relatively less data publicly available and thus is researched upon far less compared to Equities. Bond price prediction is a complex financial time series forecasting problem and is considered very crucial in the domain of finance. The bond prices are highly volatile and full of noise which makes it very difficult for traditional statistical time-series models to capture the complexity in series patterns which leads to inefficient forecasts. To overcome the inefficiencies of statistical models, various machine learning techniques were initially used in the literature for more accurate forecasting of time-series. However, simple machine learning methods such as linear regression, support vectors, random forests fail to provide efficient results when tested on highly complex sequences such as stock prices and bond prices. hence to capture these intricate sequence patterns, various deep learning-based methodologies have been discussed in the literature. In this study, a recurrent neural network-based deep learning model using long short term networks for prediction of corporate bond prices has been discussed. Long Short Term networks (LSTM) have been widely used in the literature for various sequence learning tasks in various domains such as machine translation, speech recognition, etc. In recent years, various studies have discussed the effectiveness of LSTMs in forecasting complex time-series sequences and have shown promising results when compared to other methodologies. LSTMs are a special kind of recurrent neural networks which are capable of learning long term dependencies due to its memory function which traditional neural networks fail to capture. In this study, a simple LSTM, Stacked LSTM and a Masked LSTM based model has been discussed with respect to varying input sequences (three days, seven days and 14 days). In order to facilitate faster learning and to gradually decompose the complexity of bond price sequence, an Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD) has been used, which has resulted in accuracy improvement of the standalone LSTM model. With a variety of Technical Indicators and EMD decomposed time series, Masked LSTM outperformed the other two counterparts in terms of prediction accuracy. To benchmark the proposed model, the results have been compared with traditional time series models (ARIMA), shallow neural networks and above discussed three different LSTM models. In summary, our results show that the use of LSTM models provide more accurate results and should be explored more within the asset management industry.

Keywords: bond prices, long short-term memory, time series forecasting, empirical mode decomposition

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11276 Numerical Study of Steel Structures Responses to External Explosions

Authors: Mohammad Abdallah

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Due to the constant increase in terrorist attacks, the research and engineering communities have given significant attention to building performance under explosions. This paper presents a methodology for studying and simulating the dynamic responses of steel structures during external detonations, particularly for accurately investigating the impact of incrementing charge weight on the members total behavior, resistance and failure. Prediction damage method was introduced to evaluate the damage level of the steel members based on five scenarios of explosions. Johnson–Cook strength and failure model have been used as well as ABAQUS finite element code to simulate the explicit dynamic analysis, and antecedent field tests were used to verify the acceptance and accuracy of the proposed material strength and failure model. Based on the structural response, evaluation criteria such as deflection, vertical displacement, drift index, and damage level; the obtained results show the vulnerability of steel columns and un-braced steel frames which are designed and optimized to carry dead and live load to resist and endure blast loading.

Keywords: steel structure, blast load, terrorist attacks, charge weight, damage level

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11275 The Behavior of Polypropylene Fiber Reinforced Sand Loaded by Squair Footing

Authors: Dhiaadin Bahaadin Noory

Abstract:

This research involves the effect of both sizes of reinforced zone and the amount of polypropylene fiber reinforcement on the structural behavior of model-reinforced sand loaded by square footing. The ratio of the side of the square reinforced zone to the footing width (W/B) and the ratio of the square reinforced zone depth to footing width (H/B) has been varied from one to six and from one to three, respectively. The tests were carried out on a small-scale laboratory model in which uniform-graded sand was used as a fill material. It was placed in a highly dense state by hitting a thin wooden board placed on the sand surface with a hammer. The sand was reinforced with randomly oriented discrete fibrillated polypropylene fibers. The test results indicated a significant increase in the bearing capacity and stiffness of the subgrade and a modification of load–the settlement behavior of sand with the size of the reinforced zone and amount of fiber reinforcement. On the basis of the present test results, the optimal side width and depth of the reinforced zone were 4B and 2B, respectively, while the optimal percentage of fibers was 0.4%.

Keywords: square footing, polypropylene fibers, bearing capacity, stiffness, load settlement behavior, relative density

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11274 Behavioral Analysis of Anomalies in Intertemporal Choices Through the Concept of Impatience and Customized Strategies for Four Behavioral Investor Profiles With an Application of the Analytic Hierarchy Process: A Case Study

Authors: Roberta Martino, Viviana Ventre

Abstract:

The Discounted Utility Model is the essential reference for calculating the utility of intertemporal prospects. According to this model, the value assigned to an outcome is the smaller the greater the distance between the moment in which the choice is made and the instant in which the outcome is perceived. This diminution determines the intertemporal preferences of the individual, the psychological significance of which is encapsulated in the discount rate. The classic model provides a discount rate of linear or exponential nature, necessary for temporally consistent preferences. Empirical evidence, however, has proven that individuals apply discount rates with a hyperbolic nature generating the phenomenon of intemporal inconsistency. What this means is that individuals have difficulty managing their money and future. Behavioral finance, which analyzes the investor's attitude through cognitive psychology, has made it possible to understand that beyond individual financial competence, there are factors that condition choices because they alter the decision-making process: behavioral bias. Since such cognitive biases are inevitable, to improve the quality of choices, research has focused on a personalized approach to strategies that combines behavioral finance with personality theory. From the considerations, it emerges the need to find a procedure to construct the personalized strategies that consider the personal characteristics of the client, such as age or gender, and his personality. The work is developed in three parts. The first part discusses and investigates the weight of the degree of impatience and impatience decrease in the anomalies of the discounted utility model. Specifically, the degree of decrease in impatience quantifies the impact that emotional factors generated by haste and financial market agitation have on decision making. The second part considers the relationship between decision making and personality theory. Specifically, four behavioral categories associated with four categories of behavioral investors are considered. This association allows us to interpret intertemporal choice as a combination of bias and temperament. The third part of the paper presents a method for constructing personalized strategies using Analytic Hierarchy Process. Briefly: the first level of the analytic hierarchy process considers the goal of the strategic plan; the second level considers the four temperaments; the third level compares the temperaments with the anomalies of the discounted utility model; and the fourth level contains the different possible alternatives to be selected. The weights of the hierarchy between level 2 and level 3 are constructed considering the degrees of decrease in impatience derived for each temperament with an experimental phase. The results obtained confirm the relationship between temperaments and anomalies through the degree of decrease in impatience and highlight that the actual impact of emotions in decision making. Moreover, it proposes an original and useful way to improve financial advice. Inclusion of additional levels in the Analytic Hierarchy Process can further improve strategic personalization.

Keywords: analytic hierarchy process, behavioral finance anomalies, intertemporal choice, personalized strategies

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11273 Irregular Meal Pattern: What Is the Impact on Weight

Authors: Maha Alhussain, Moira A Taylor, Ian A. Macdonald

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Background: It is well established that dietary composition has effects on metabolism and therefore impacts on health; however other aspects of diet, such as meal pattern, could also be important in both obesity management and promoting health. The present study investigated the effect of irregular meal frequency on anthropometric measurements and energy expenditure (EE) in healthy women. Design: 11 healthy weight women (18–40 years) were studied in a randomized crossover trial with two phases of 2 weeks each. In Phase 1, participants consumed either a regular meal pattern (6 meals/day) or an irregular meal pattern (varying from 3 to 9 meals/day). In Phase 2, participants followed the alternative meal pattern to that followed in Phase 1, after a 2-weeks washout period. In the two phases, identical foods were provided to a participant in amounts designed to keep body weight constant. Participants came to the laboratory after an overnight fast at the start and end of each phase. EE was measured in fasting state by indirect calorimetry. Postprandial EE was measured during the 3 h period after consumption of a milkshake, test drink. Results: There were no significant changes in body weight and anthropometric measurements after both meal pattern interventions. There was also no significant difference in mean daily energy intake between the regular and irregular meal pattern (2043 ±31 and 2099 ±33 respectively). EE in the fasting state showed no significant differences cross the experiment visits. There was a significant difference in Postprandial EE (measured for 3 h) by visit (P=0.04). Postprandial EE after the regular meal pattern was significantly higher than at baseline (P=0.002) or than after the irregular meal pattern (P= 0.04). Conclusion: Eating regularly for 14-day period significantly increases Postprandial EE which may contribute to weight loss and obesity management.

Keywords: energy expenditure, energy intake, meal pattern, weight loss

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11272 Model Based Design and Development of Horticultural Produce Crate from Bamboo

Authors: Sisay Wondmagegn Molla, Mulugeta Admasu Delele, Tadelle Nigusu Mekonen

Abstract:

It is common to observe quality deterioration and mechanical injury of horticulture products as a result of suboptimal design and handling of the packaging systems. Society uses the old and primitive way of handling horticulture products, which is produced through trial and error This method is known to have many limitations on quality, environmental pollution, labor and cost. Ethiopia stands first in bamboo resources in Africa, which is 67 % of the African and 7 % of the world's bamboo resources. The purpose of this project was to design and develop bamboo-based ventilated horticultural produce crates using validated computational fluid dynamics (CFD). The model was used to predict the airflow and temperature distribution inside the loaded crate. The study included: sizing, collection of the thermo-physical properties, and designing and developing a CFD model of the bamboo-based ventilated horticultural crate. The designed crate (40×30×25cm) had a capacity of about 18 kg, and cold air temperature (130C) was used for cooling the fruit. Airflow in the loaded crate is far from uniform. There is a relatively high-velocity flow at the top, near inlet and near outlet sections, and a relatively low airflow near the center of the loaded crate. The predicted velocity variation within the bulk of the produce was relatively large, it was in the range of 0.04-7m/s. The vented produce package contributed the highest cooling airflow resistance. Similar to the airflow, the cooling characteristics of the product were not uniform. There was a difference in the cooling rate of the produce in the airflow direction and from the top to the bottom section of the loaded crate. The products that were located near the inlet side and top of the bulk showed a faster cooling rate than the rest of the bulk. The result showed that the produced volume average temperature was 17.9°C after a cooling period of 3 hr. It was reduced by 12.05°C. The result showed the potential of the CFD modeling approach in developing the bamboo-based design of horticultural produce crates in terms of airflow and heat transfer characteristics.

Keywords: bamboo, modeling, cooling, horticultural, packaging

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11271 A Qualitative Investigation of Shia Muslims' Mourning Practices as a Coping Strategy

Authors: Anusha Sajjad, Sibtain Kazmi, Sadaf Sajjad, Ali Mohsin

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Shia Muslims, a distinct minority within the broader Muslim community, have a unique mourning practice set that remains underexplored in research. These practices hold cultural and religious significance and are essential to Shia spirituality. This study seeks to delve into the emotional and psychological dimensions of Shia Muslims' mourning rituals, specifically investigating how these practices serve as coping strategies during times of grief and adversity. The motivation for this research stems from a gap in understanding the psycho-spiritual aspects of Shia mourning, with a focus on the potential therapeutic value of these practices for individuals experiencing daily life stressors. This qualitative investigation employs an online survey conducted in September 2023 as the primary research method. Data was collected from a sample of 49 Shia Muslims who have actively participated in mourning rituals. Pearson's correlation test was applied to assess the relationship between participants’ reported feelings of mentally feeling ‘Lighter or Heavier' and their 'Coping' responses. Pearson's correlation analysis revealed a positive but relatively weak correlation between 'Mentally Feeling Lighter' and 'Coping' (r = 0.303) with a statistically significant p-value of 0.034. The findings suggest that there is a statistically significant positive correlation between feeling "Mentally Lighter" and coping, as reported by participants in Shia mourning rituals, although the strength of this correlation is relatively weak. This implies that individuals who feel "Mentally Lighter" are more likely to report coping effectively, but other factors likely contribute to the overall coping strategies employed by participants in this context. Further research with a larger sample size would be needed to strengthen this correlation further.

Keywords: shia, mourning, religion, coping

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11270 Optimization of Shale Gas Production by Advanced Hydraulic Fracturing

Authors: Fazl Ullah, Rahmat Ullah

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This paper shows a comprehensive learning focused on the optimization of gas production in shale gas reservoirs through hydraulic fracturing. Shale gas has emerged as an important unconventional vigor resource, necessitating innovative techniques to enhance its extraction. The key objective of this study is to examine the influence of fracture parameters on reservoir productivity and formulate strategies for production optimization. A sophisticated model integrating gas flow dynamics and real stress considerations is developed for hydraulic fracturing in multi-stage shale gas reservoirs. This model encompasses distinct zones: a single-porosity medium region, a dual-porosity average region, and a hydraulic fracture region. The apparent permeability of the matrix and fracture system is modeled using principles like effective stress mechanics, porous elastic medium theory, fractal dimension evolution, and fluid transport apparatuses. The developed model is then validated using field data from the Barnett and Marcellus formations, enhancing its reliability and accuracy. By solving the partial differential equation by means of COMSOL software, the research yields valuable insights into optimal fracture parameters. The findings reveal the influence of fracture length, diversion capacity, and width on gas production. For reservoirs with higher permeability, extending hydraulic fracture lengths proves beneficial, while complex fracture geometries offer potential for low-permeability reservoirs. Overall, this study contributes to a deeper understanding of hydraulic cracking dynamics in shale gas reservoirs and provides essential guidance for optimizing gas production. The research findings are instrumental for energy industry professionals, researchers, and policymakers alike, shaping the future of sustainable energy extraction from unconventional resources.

Keywords: fluid-solid coupling, apparent permeability, shale gas reservoir, fracture property, numerical simulation

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11269 Patterns of Self-Medication with Over-the-Counter Pain Relievers (Acetaminophen, Ibuprofen, and Aspirin) among the Kuwaiti Population

Authors: Nabil Ahmed Kamal Badawy, Ali Falah Alhajraf, Mawaheb Falah Alsamdan

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Objectives: To estimate the prevalence of self-medication with over-the-counter pain relievers (acetaminophen, ibuprofen, and aspirin) among Kuwaiti citizens above the age of 16 years old and describe their patterns of use, perceived awareness of, and concerns about the drugs’ potential side effects. Design: A descriptive cross-sectional questionnaire-based survey. Setting: Samples were selected from the six Kuwaiti governorates. Subjects: The data were collected over a four-month period in 2012, from 850 subjects who identified as Kuwaiti citizens. These subjects were recruited using stratified random sampling. Results: Overall, a 67% response rate was obtained. In total, 68% (573) of the respondents reported the use of over-the-counter pain relievers. Women, middle-aged or single individuals, and those who had completed higher education used these drugs more than any other subgroup (p<0.05). We found evidence of inappropriate use of these drugs, with 15% (88) of the consumers using them almost daily. Further, 19% (111) of the consumers exceeded the recommended dosage at least once. Not only were 81% of the consumers unaware of the potential side effects, but also more than 61% were not concerned about them. Women were more knowledgeable than men regarding the maximum dose (p=0.036, OR 1.49, CI 1.03–2.17). Consumers with higher levels of education did not show distinct knowledge regarding the maximum allowed dose of the drugs (p=0.252, OR 1.71, CI 0.68-4.25). Conclusion: The results showed a high prevalence of self-medication with over-the-counter pain relievers among Kuwaiti citizens. The subjects showed marked unawareness and a lack of concern regarding the potential complications resulting from the inappropriate use of these analgesics. This demonstrates the need for educational interventions directed toward both patients and health care workers.

Keywords: awareness of side effects, concern, patterns of use, prevalence

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11268 A Risk Management Approach to the Diagnosis of Attention Deficit-Hyperactivity Disorder

Authors: Lloyd A. Taylor

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An increase in the prevalence of Attention Deficit-Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) highlights the need to consider factors that may be exacerbating symptom presentation. Traditional diagnostic criteria provide a little framework for healthcare providers to consider as they attempt to diagnose and treat children with behavioral problems. In fact, aside from exclusion criteria, limited alternative considerations are available, and approaches fail to consider the impact of outside factors that could increase or decrease the likelihood of appropriate diagnosis and success of interventions. This paper will consider specific systems-based factors that influence behavior and intervention successes that, when not considered, could account for the upsurge of diagnoses. These include understanding (1) challenges in the healthcare system, (2) the influence and impact of educators and the educational system, (3) technology use, and (4) patient and parental attitudes about the diagnosis of ADHD. These factors must be considered both individually and as a whole when considering both the increase in diagnoses and the subsequent increases in prescriptions for psychostimulant medication. A theoretical model based on a risk management approach will be presented. Finally, data will be presented that demonstrates pediatric provider satisfaction with this approach to diagnoses and treatment of ADHD as it relates to practice trends.

Keywords: ADHD, diagnostic criteria, risk management model, pediatricians

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11267 Constellating Images: Bilderatlases as a Tool to Develop Criticality towards Visual Culture

Authors: Quirijn Menken

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Menken, Q. Author  Constellating Images Abstract—We live in a predominantly visual era. Vastly expanded quantities of imagery influence us on a daily basis, in contrast to earlier days where the textual prevailed. The increasing producing and reproducing of images continuously compete for our attention. As such, how we perceive images and in what way images are framed or mediate our beliefs, has become of even greater importance than ever before. Especially in art education a critical awareness and approach of images as part of visual culture is of utmost importance. The Bilderatlas operates as a mediation, and offers new Ways of Seeing and knowing. It is mainly known as result of the ground-breaking work of the cultural theorist Aby Warburg, who intended to present an art history without words. His Mnemosyne Bilderatlas shows how the arrangement of images - and the interstices between them, offers new perspectives and ways of seeing. The Atlas as a medium to critically address Visual Culture is also practiced by the German artist Gerhard Richter, and it is in written form used in the Passagen Werk of Walter Benjamin. In order to examine the use of the Bilderatlas as a tool in art education, several experiments with art students have been conducted. These experiments have lead to an exploration of different Pedagogies, which help to offer new perspectives and trajectories of learning. To use the Bilderatlas as a tool to develop criticality towards Visual Culture, I developed and tested a new pedagogy; a Pedagogy of Difference and Repetition, based on the philosophy of Gilles Deleuze. Furthermore, in offering a new pedagogy - based on the rhizomatic work of Gilles Deleuze – the Bilderatlas as a tool to develop criticality has found a firm basis. Keywords—Art Education, Walter Benjamin, Bilderatlas, Gilles Deleuze, Difference and Repetition, Pedagogy, Rhizomes, Visual Culture,

Keywords: Art Education, Bilderatlas, Pedagogy, Aby Warburg

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11266 Improving Decision Support for Organ Transplant

Authors: Ian McCulloh, Andrew Placona, Darren Stewart, Daniel Gause, Kevin Kiernan, Morgan Stuart, Christopher Zinner, Laura Cartwright

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An estimated 22-25% of viable deceased donor kidneys are discarded every year in the US, while waitlisted candidates are dying every day. As many as 85% of transplanted organs are refused at least once for a patient that scored higher on the match list. There are hundreds of clinical variables involved in making a clinical transplant decision and there is rarely an ideal match. Decision makers exhibit an optimism bias where they may refuse an organ offer assuming a better match is imminent. We propose a semi-parametric Cox proportional hazard model, augmented by an accelerated failure time model based on patient specific suitable organ supply and demand to estimate a time-to-next-offer. Performance is assessed with Cox-Snell residuals and decision curve analysis, demonstrating improved decision support for up to a 5-year outlook. Providing clinical decision makers with quantitative evidence of likely patient outcomes (e.g., time to next offer and the mortality associated with waiting) may improve decisions and reduce optimism bias, thus reducing discarded organs and matching more patients on the waitlist.

Keywords: decision science, KDPI, optimism bias, organ transplant

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11265 Factors Affecting the Caregiving Experience of Children with Parental Mental Illnesses: A Systematic Review

Authors: N. Anjana

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Worldwide, the prevalence of mental illnesses is increasing. The issues of persons with mental illness and their caregivers have been well documented in the literature. However, data regarding the factors affecting the caregiving experience of children with parental mental illnesses is sparse. This systematic review aimed to examine the existing literature of the factors affecting the caregiving experience of children of parents with mental illnesses. A comprehensive search of databases such as PubMed, EBSCO, JSTOR, ProQuest Central, Taylor and Francis Online, and Google Scholar were performed to identify peer-reviewed papers examining the factors associated with caregiving experiences of children with parental mental illnesses such as schizophrenia and major depression, for the 10-year period ending November 2019. Two researchers screened studies for eligibility. One researcher extracted data from eligible studies while a second performed verification of results for accuracy and completeness. Quality appraisal was conducted by both reviewers. Data describing major factors associated with caregiving experiences of children with parental mental illnesses were synthesized and reported in narrative form. Five studies were considered eligible and included in this review. Findings are organized under major themes such as the impact of parental mental illness on children’s daily life, how children provide care to their mentally ill parents as primary carers, social and relationship factors associated with their caregiving, positive and negative experiences in caregiving and how children cope with their experiences with parental mental illnesses. Literature relating to the caregiving experiences of children with parental mental illnesses is sparse. More research is required to better understand the children’s caregiving experiences related to parental mental illnesses so as to better inform management for enhancing their mental health, wellbeing, and caregiving practice.

Keywords: caregiving experience, children, parental mental illnesses, wellbeing

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11264 Effect of Pole Weight on Nordic Walking

Authors: Takeshi Sato, Mizuki Nakajima, Macky Kato, Shoji Igawa

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The purpose of study was to investigate the effect of varying pole weights on energy expenditure, upper limb and lower limb muscle activity as Electromyogram during Nordic walking (NW). Four healthy men [age = 22.5 (±1.0) years, body mass = 61.4 (±3.6) kg, height = 170.3 (±4.3) cm] and three healthy women [age = 22.7 (±2.9) years, body mass = 53.0 (±1.7) kg, height = 156.7 (±4.5) cm] participated in the experiments after informed consent. Seven healthy subjects were tested on the treadmill, walking, walking (W) with Nordic Poles (NW) and walking with 1kg weight Nordic Poles (NW+1). Walking speed was 6 km per hours in all trials. Eight EMG activities were recorded by bipolar surface methods in biceps brachii, triceps brachii, trapezius, deltoideus, tibialis anterior, medial gastrocnemius, rectus femoris and biceps femoris muscles. And heart rate (HR), oxygen uptake (VO2), and rate of perceived exertion (RPE) were measured. The level of significance was set at a = 0.05, with p < 0.05 regarded as statistically significant. Our results confirmed that use of NW poles increased HR at a given upper arm muscle activity but decreased lower limb EMGs in comparison with W. Moreover NW was able to increase more step lengths with hip joint extension during NW rather than W. Also, EMG revealed higher activation of upper limb for almost all NW and 1kgNW tests plus added masses compared to W (p < 0.05). Therefore, it was thought either of NW and 1kgNW were to have benefit as a physical exercise for safe, feasible, and readily training for a wide range of aged people in the quality of daily life. However, there was no significant effected in leg muscles activity by using 1kgNW except for upper arm muscle activity during Nordic pole walking.

Keywords: Nordic walking, electromyogram, heart rate, RPE

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11263 Tensile Properties of Aluminum Silicon Nickel Iron Vanadium High Entropy Alloys

Authors: Sefiu A. Bello, Nasirudeen K. Raji, Jeleel A. Adebisi, Sadiq A. Raji

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Pure metals are not used in most cases for structural applications because of their limited properties. Presently, high entropy alloys (HEAs) are emerging by mixing comparative proportions of metals with the aim of maximizing the entropy leading to enhancement in structural and mechanical properties. Aluminum Silicon Nickel Iron Vanadium (AlSiNiFeV) alloy was developed using stir cast technique and analysed. Results obtained show that the alloy grade G0 contains 44 percentage by weight (wt%) Al, 32 wt% Si, 9 wt% Ni, 4 wt% Fe, 3 wt% V and 8 wt% for minor elements with tensile strength and elongation of 106 Nmm-2 and 2.68%, respectively. X-ray diffraction confirmed intermetallic compounds having hexagonal closed packed (HCP), orthorhombic and cubic structures in cubic dendritic matrix. This affirmed transformation from the cubic structures of elemental constituents of the HEAs to the precipitated structures of the intermetallic compounds. A maximum tensile strength of 188 Nmm-2 with 4% elongation was noticed at 10wt% of silica addition to the G0. An increase in tensile strength with an increment in silica content could be attributed to different phases and crystal geometries characterizing each HEA.

Keywords: HEAs, phases model, aluminium, silicon, tensile strength, model

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11262 Numerical Analysis of the Coanda Effect on the Classical Interior Ejectors

Authors: Alexandru Dumitrache, Florin Frunzulica, Octavian Preotu

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The flow mitigation detachment problem near solid surfaces, resulting in improved globally aerodynamic performance by exploiting the Coanda effect on surfaces, has been addressed extensively in the literature, since 1940. The research is carried on and further developed, using modern means of calculation and new experimental methods. In this paper, it is shown interest in the detailed behavior of a classical interior ejector assisted by the Coanda effect, used in propulsion systems. For numerical investigations, an implicit formulation of RANS equations for axisymmetric flow with a shear stress transport k- ω (SST model) turbulence model is used. The obtained numerical results emphasize the efficiency of the ejector, depending on the physical parameters of the flow and the geometric configuration. Furthermore, numerical investigations are carried out regarding the evolution of the Reynolds number when the jet is attached to the wall, considering three geometric configurations: sudden expansion, open cavity and sudden expansion with divergent at the inlet. Therefore, further insight into complexities involving issues such as the variety of flow structure and the related bifurcation and flow instabilities are provided. Thus, the conditions and the limits within which one can benefit from the advantages of Coanda-type flows are determined.

Keywords: Coanda effect, Coanda ejector, CFD, stationary bifurcation, sudden expansion

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11261 From Theory to Practice: Harnessing Mathematical and Statistical Sciences in Data Analytics

Authors: Zahid Ullah, Atlas Khan

Abstract:

The rapid growth of data in diverse domains has created an urgent need for effective utilization of mathematical and statistical sciences in data analytics. This abstract explores the journey from theory to practice, emphasizing the importance of harnessing mathematical and statistical innovations to unlock the full potential of data analytics. Drawing on a comprehensive review of existing literature and research, this study investigates the fundamental theories and principles underpinning mathematical and statistical sciences in the context of data analytics. It delves into key mathematical concepts such as optimization, probability theory, statistical modeling, and machine learning algorithms, highlighting their significance in analyzing and extracting insights from complex datasets. Moreover, this abstract sheds light on the practical applications of mathematical and statistical sciences in real-world data analytics scenarios. Through case studies and examples, it showcases how mathematical and statistical innovations are being applied to tackle challenges in various fields such as finance, healthcare, marketing, and social sciences. These applications demonstrate the transformative power of mathematical and statistical sciences in data-driven decision-making. The abstract also emphasizes the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration, as it recognizes the synergy between mathematical and statistical sciences and other domains such as computer science, information technology, and domain-specific knowledge. Collaborative efforts enable the development of innovative methodologies and tools that bridge the gap between theory and practice, ultimately enhancing the effectiveness of data analytics. Furthermore, ethical considerations surrounding data analytics, including privacy, bias, and fairness, are addressed within the abstract. It underscores the need for responsible and transparent practices in data analytics, and highlights the role of mathematical and statistical sciences in ensuring ethical data handling and analysis. In conclusion, this abstract highlights the journey from theory to practice in harnessing mathematical and statistical sciences in data analytics. It showcases the practical applications of these sciences, the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration, and the need for ethical considerations. By bridging the gap between theory and practice, mathematical and statistical sciences contribute to unlocking the full potential of data analytics, empowering organizations and decision-makers with valuable insights for informed decision-making.

Keywords: data analytics, mathematical sciences, optimization, machine learning, interdisciplinary collaboration, practical applications

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11260 Financial Centers and BRICS Stock Markets: The Effect of the Recent Crises

Authors: Marco Barassi, Nicola Spagnolo

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This paper uses a DCC-GARCH model framework to examine mean and volatility spillovers (i.e. causality in mean and variance) dynamics between financial centers and the stock market indexes of the BRICS countries. In addition, tests for changes in the transmission mechanism are carried out by first testing for structural breaks and then setting a dummy variable to control for the 2008 financial crises. We use weekly data for nine countries, four financial centers (Germany, Japan, UK and USA) and the five BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa). Furthermore, we control for monetary policy using domestic interest rates (90-day Treasury Bill interest rate) over the period 03/1/1990 - 04/2/2014, for a total of 1204 observations. Results show that the 2008 financial crises changed the causality dynamics for most of the countries considered. The same pattern can also be observed in conditional correlation showing a shift upward following the turbulence associated to the 2008 crises. The magnitude of these effects suggests a leading role played by the financial centers in effecting Brazil and South Africa, whereas Russia, India and China show a higher degree of resilience.

Keywords: financial crises, DCC-GARCH model, volatility spillovers, economics

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11259 The Determinants of Country Corruption: Unobserved Heterogeneity and Individual Choice- An empirical Application with Finite Mixture Models

Authors: Alessandra Marcelletti, Giovanni Trovato

Abstract:

Corruption in public offices is found to be the reflection of country-specific features, however, the exact magnitude and the statistical significance of its determinants effect has not yet been identified. The paper aims to propose an estimation method to measure the impact of country fundamentals on corruption, showing that covariates could differently affect the extent of corruption across countries. Thus, we exploit a model able to take into account different factors affecting the incentive to ask or to be asked for a bribe, coherently with the use of the Corruption Perception Index. We assume that discordant results achieved in literature may be explained by omitted hidden factors affecting the agents' decision process. Moreover, assuming homogeneous covariates effect may lead to unreliable conclusions since the country-specific environment is not accounted for. We apply a Finite Mixture Model with concomitant variables to 129 countries from 1995 to 2006, accounting for the impact of the initial conditions in the socio-economic structure on the corruption patterns. Our findings confirm the hypothesis of the decision process of accepting or asking for a bribe varies with specific country fundamental features.

Keywords: Corruption, Finite Mixture Models, Concomitant Variables, Countries Classification

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11258 Generalization of Clustering Coefficient on Lattice Networks Applied to Criminal Networks

Authors: Christian H. Sanabria-Montaña, Rodrigo Huerta-Quintanilla

Abstract:

A lattice network is a special type of network in which all nodes have the same number of links, and its boundary conditions are periodic. The most basic lattice network is the ring, a one-dimensional network with periodic border conditions. In contrast, the Cartesian product of d rings forms a d-dimensional lattice network. An analytical expression currently exists for the clustering coefficient in this type of network, but the theoretical value is valid only up to certain connectivity value; in other words, the analytical expression is incomplete. Here we obtain analytically the clustering coefficient expression in d-dimensional lattice networks for any link density. Our analytical results show that the clustering coefficient for a lattice network with density of links that tend to 1, leads to the value of the clustering coefficient of a fully connected network. We developed a model on criminology in which the generalized clustering coefficient expression is applied. The model states that delinquents learn the know-how of crime business by sharing knowledge, directly or indirectly, with their friends of the gang. This generalization shed light on the network properties, which is important to develop new models in different fields where network structure plays an important role in the system dynamic, such as criminology, evolutionary game theory, econophysics, among others.

Keywords: clustering coefficient, criminology, generalized, regular network d-dimensional

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11257 Executing the Law: The Practical Absence of Law and Its Effects on Death Row Inmates and Their Families in Egypt

Authors: Amira M. Othman

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Despite the massive array of literature that engages with the Egyptian legislative system on a theoretical level, very little attention has been dedicated to the comparison between the legislative clauses on the one hand, and the (absence of their) real-world implementation on the other. This paper starts with this discrepancy, focusing on the legal proceedings in some recent cases dubbed ‘political,’ in which defendants received death sentences. Then, it sheds light on the trend of practical disregard of the law on behalf of the criminal justice apparatuses (whether security forces, public prosecution offices, lawyers, judges, prison wardens, and executioners) through the examination of case files and the conduction of interviews with some defense lawyers in the cases in question. It also identifies the resultant state of confusion among prison staff, as manifest in their treatment of defendants even before the death sentences against them is pronounced; in other words, the application of some aspects of the law in certain cases, and their simultaneous disregard of others. Then, the paper explores the effects of such execution of the law on the death row inmates, as it identifies the different strategies through which defendants who are sentenced to death appropriate a number of legal clauses to their benefit, thereby embarrassing - or highly irritating - the judges that pronounce their death sentences. In addition to appropriation, other strategies include the contestation of the law and their presence before the courts in general, as well as the complete disregard and dismissal of the legal system altogether. Finally, the paper investigates the consequent conceptual effect on the first degree families of death row inmates, namely how their daily encounters with the Egyptian legislative system - particularly its emphasis on the absence of the otherwise binding local legislation - continue to shape their conceptions of the ‘law,’ of ‘justice,’ and their trust in the ‘state.’

Keywords: death penalty, Egyptian law absence, justice, political cases

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11256 Subsurface Elastic Properties Determination for Site Characterization Using Seismic Refraction Tomography at the Pwalugu Dam Area

Authors: Van-Dycke Sarpong Asare, Vincent Adongo

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Field measurement of subsurface seismic p-wave velocities was undertaken through seismic refraction tomography. The aim of this work is to obtain a model of the shallow subsurface material elastic properties relevant for geotechnical site characterization. The survey area is at Pwalugu in Northern Ghana, where a multipurpose dam, for electricity generation, irrigation, and potable water delivery, is being planned. A 24-channel seismograph and 24, 10 Hz electromagnetic geophones, deployed 5 m apart constituted the acquisition hardware. Eleven (2-D) seismic refraction profiles, nine of which ran almost perpendicular and two parallel to the White Volta at Pwalugu, were acquired. The refraction tomograms of the thirteen profiles revealed a subsurface model consisting of one minor and one major acoustic impedance boundaries – the top dry/loose sand and the variably weathered sandstone contact, and the overburden-sandstones bedrock contact respectively. The p-wave velocities and by inference, with a priori values of poison ratios, the s-wave velocities, assisted in characterizing the geotechnical conditions of the proposed site and also in evaluating the dynamic properties such as the maximum shear modulus, the bulk modulus, and the Young modulus.

Keywords: tomography, characterization, consolidated, Pwalugu and seismograph

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11255 Damping Optimal Design of Sandwich Beams Partially Covered with Damping Patches

Authors: Guerich Mohamed, Assaf Samir

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The application of viscoelastic materials in the form of constrained layers in mechanical structures is an efficient and cost-effective technique for solving noise and vibration problems. This technique requires a design tool to select the best location, type, and thickness of the damping treatment. This paper presents a finite element model for the vibration of beams partially or fully covered with a constrained viscoelastic damping material. The model is based on Bernoulli-Euler theory for the faces and Timoshenko beam theory for the core. It uses four variables: the through-thickness constant deflection, the axial displacements of the faces, and the bending rotation of the beam. The sandwich beam finite element is compatible with the conventional C1 finite element for homogenous beams. To validate the proposed model, several free vibration analyses of fully or partially covered beams, with different locations of the damping patches and different percent coverage, are studied. The results show that the proposed approach can be used as an effective tool to study the influence of the location and treatment size on the natural frequencies and the associated modal loss factors. Then, a parametric study regarding the variation in the damping characteristics of partially covered beams has been conducted. In these studies, the effect of core shear modulus value, the effect of patch size variation, the thickness of constraining layer, and the core and the locations of the patches are considered. In partial coverage, the spatial distribution of additive damping by using viscoelastic material is as important as the thickness and material properties of the viscoelastic layer and the constraining layer. Indeed, to limit added mass and to attain maximum damping, the damping patches should be placed at optimum locations. These locations are often selected using the modal strain energy indicator. Following this approach, the damping patches are applied over regions of the base structure with the highest modal strain energy to target specific modes of vibration. In the present study, a more efficient indicator is proposed, which consists of placing the damping patches over regions of high energy dissipation through the viscoelastic layer of the fully covered sandwich beam. The presented approach is used in an optimization method to select the best location for the damping patches as well as the material thicknesses and material properties of the layers that will yield optimal damping with the minimum area of coverage.

Keywords: finite element model, damping treatment, viscoelastic materials, sandwich beam

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11254 The Influence of Language on Music Consumption in Japan: An Experimental Study

Authors: Timur Zhukov, Yuko Yamashita

Abstract:

Music as a product of hedonic consumption has been researched at least since the early 20th century, but little light has been shed on how language affects its consumption process. At the intersection of music consumption, language impact, and consumer behavior, this research explores the influence of language on music consumption in Japan. Its aim is to clarify how listening to music in different languages affects the listener’s purchase intention and sharing intention by conducting a survey where respondents listen to three versions of the same song in different languages in random order. It uses an existing framework that views the flow of music consumption as a combination of responses (emotional response, sensory response, imaginal response, analytical responses) affecting the experiential response, which then affects the overall affective response, followed by the need to reexperience and lastly the purchase intention. In this research, the sharing intention has been added to the model to better fit the modern consumption model (e.g., AISAS). This research shows how positive and negative emotions and imaginal and analytical responses change depending on the language and what impact it has on consumer behavior. It concludes by proposing how modern music businesses can learn from the language differences and cater to the needs of the audiences who speak different languages.

Keywords: AISAS, consumer behavior, first language, music consumption, second language

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11253 Exploring the Optimum Temperature and Diet for Growth and Gastric Emptying Time of Juvenile Malabar Blood Snapper (Lutjanus malabaricus)

Authors: Sabuj Kanti Mazumder, Mazlan Abd Ghaffar, Simon Kumar Das

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In this study, we analyzed the effects of water temperature and diet on the growth properties and gastric emptying period of juvenile Malabar blood snapper (Lutjanus malabaricus) over a 30day experimental period. Fish were collected from a local hatchery of Pulau Ketam, Selangor, Malaysia and immediately transferred to flow-through sea water system and subjected to four different temperatures (22, 26, 30, and 34 °C) and two diets (formulated pellet and shrimp). Body weight gain, food consumption, food conversion ratio, food consumption efficiency, specific growth rate, relative growth rate, daily growth rate, and gastric emptying period were significantly influenced by temperature and diet (P<0.05). The best food conversion ratio was with the shrimp group recorded at 30°C (1.33±0.08). The highest growth rate was observed in the shrimp group at 30°C (3.97±0.57% day-1), and the lowest was observed in the formulated pellet group at 22°C (1.63±0.29% day-1). No significant difference was observed between the groups subjected to temperatures of 26 and 30°C. Similarly, the lowest gastric emptying period was detected in the shrimp group at 30°C (16h), where the proportion of meal residues in the stomach decreased from 100% to less than 8% after 12h of starvation. A significantly longer gastric emptying period was observed in the formulated pellet group at 22°C (28h). Overall, the best results were observed on shrimp group subjected to a 30°C temperature. The data obtained from this study suggest that a shrimp diet fed on L. malabaricus at 30°C will optimize the commercial production of this commercially important fish species.

Keywords: aquaculture, diet, digestion rate, growth, Malabar blood snapper

Procedia PDF Downloads 280
11252 Estimating the Timing Interval for Malarial Indoor Residual Spraying: A Modelling Approach

Authors: Levicatus Mugenyi, Joaniter Nankabirwa, Emmanuel Arinaitwe, John Rek, Niel Hens, Moses Kamya, Grant Dorsey

Abstract:

Background: Indoor residual spraying (IRS) reduces vector densities and malaria transmission, however, the most effective spraying intervals for IRS have not been well established. We aim to estimate the optimal timing interval for IRS using a modeling approach. Methods: We use a generalized additive model to estimate the optimal timing interval for IRS using the predicted malaria incidence. The model is applied to post IRS cohort clinical data from children aged 0.5–10 years in selected households in Tororo, historically a high malaria transmission setting in Uganda. Six rounds of IRS were implemented in Tororo during the study period (3 rounds with bendiocarb: December 2014 to December 2015, and 3 rounds with actellic: June 2016 to July 2018). Results: Monthly incidence of malaria from October 2014 to February 2019 decreased from 3.25 to 0.0 per person-years in the children under 5 years, and 1.57 to 0.0 for 5-10 year-olds. The optimal time interval for IRS differed between bendiocarb and actellic and by IRS round. It was estimated to be 17 and 40 weeks after the first round of bendiocarb and actellic, respectively. After the third round of actellic, 36 weeks was estimated to be optimal. However, we could not estimate from the data the optimal time after the second and third rounds of bendiocarb and after the second round of actellic. Conclusion: We conclude that to sustain the effect of IRS in a high-medium transmission setting, the second rounds of bendiocarb need to be applied roughly 17 weeks and actellic 40 weeks after the first round, and the timing differs for subsequent rounds. The amount of rainfall did not influence the trend in malaria incidence after IRS, as well as the IRS timing intervals. Our results suggest that shorter intervals for the IRS application can be more effective compared to the current practice, which is about 24 weeks for bendiocarb and 48 weeks for actellic. However, when considering our findings, one should account for the cost and drug resistance associated with IRS. We also recommend that the timing and incidence should be monitored in the future to improve these estimates.

Keywords: incidence, indoor residual spraying, generalized additive model, malaria

Procedia PDF Downloads 117