Search results for: short term load forecasting (STLF)

Authors: Maruska Vizek, Josip Glaurdic, Marina Tkalec, Goran Vuksic

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We empirically explore whether and how taxation affects bilateral real exchange rates in the euro area – relative unit labor costs and relative consumer price indices. We find that employers’ social security contributions and the value added tax changes have the expected effects put forward in the fiscal devaluation literature and simulations. Increases in employers’ contributions appreciate the relative unit labor costs in the short- and the long-run, while value added tax hike appreciates the relative consumer prices. Somewhat surprisingly, for personal income tax increases, we find a short-run depreciating impact on the relative unit labor costs, while increases in employees’ contributions depreciate both measures of real exchange rates in the short-run.

Keywords: sovereign bonds, European Union, developing countries, political determinants

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Authors: Chan Hui-Ya, Ding Shin-Tan

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Background and Aim: The discharge planning is considered helpful to reduce the hospital length of stay and readmission rate, and then increased satisfaction with healthcare for patients and professionals. In order to decrease the waiting time of long-term care and boost the care quality of patients after discharge from the hospital, the Ministry of Health and Welfare department in Taiwan initiates a program “discharge planning connects with long-term care 2.0 services” in 2017. The purpose of this study is to investigate the outcome of the pilot of this program in a medical center. Methods: By purpose sampling, the study chose five wards in a medical center as pilot units. The researchers compared the beds of service, the numbers of cases which were transferred to the long-term care center and transferred rates per month between the pilot units and the other units, and analyze the basic data, the long-term care service needs and the approval service items of cases transfer to the long-term care center in pilot units. Results: From June to September 2017, a total of 92 referrals were made, and 51 patients were enrolled into the pilot program. There is a significant difference of transferring rate between the pilot units and the other units (χ = 702.6683, p < 0.001). Only 20 cases (39.2% success rate) were approved to accept the parts of service items of long-term care in the pilot units. The most approval item was respite care service (n = 13; 65%), while it was third at needs ranking of service lists during linking services process. Among the reasons of patients who cancelled the request, 38.71% reasons were related to the services which could not match the patients’ needs and expectation. Conclusion: The results indicate there is a requirement to modify the long-term care services to fit the needs of cases. The researchers suggest estimating the potential cases by screening data from hospital informatics systems and to hire more case manager according the service time of potential cases. Meanwhile, the strategies shortened the assessment scale and authorized hospital case managers to approve some items of long-term care should be considered.

Keywords: discharge planning, long-term care, case manager, patient care

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Authors: Morteza Aien, Masoud Rashidinejad, Mahmud Fotuhi-Firuzabad

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Power systems are innately uncertain systems. To face with such uncertain systems, robust uncertainty assessment tools are appealed. This paper inspects the uncertainty assessment formulation of the load flow (LF) problem considering different kinds of uncertainties, developed in its companion paper through some case studies. The proposed methodology is based on the evidence theory and joint propagation of possibilistic and probabilistic uncertainties. The load and wind power generation are considered as probabilistic uncertain variables and the electric vehicles (EVs) and gas turbine distributed generation (DG) units are considered as possibilistic uncertain variables. The cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the system output parameters obtained by the pure probabilistic method lies within the belief and plausibility functions obtained by the joint propagation approach. Furthermore, the imprecision in the DG parameters is explicitly reflected by the gap between the belief and plausibility functions. This gap, due to the epistemic uncertainty on the DG resources parameters grows as the penetration level increases.

Keywords: electric vehicles, joint possibilistic- probabilistic uncertainty modeling, uncertain load flow, wind turbine generator

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Authors: Takao Maeda, Tomofumi Tohara, Shigeaki Mishima

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Focusing on the “SME management consultants” in Japan, this study intends (1) to clarify implications as to their self-actualization, motivation and (2) to revitalize SMEs, on which local economies depend. On the basis of these study purposes, the presenters conducted an interview survey of several SME management consultants and SME managers. This survey identified the current circumstances and challenges as follow: SME management consultants are high-level professionals who acquired very difficult national qualifications (examination pass rate 4%) to provide consultation and business analysis for SMEs. Nevertheless, only 20% of the qualified consultants run their business independently, while the rest (80%) are corporate employees as in-house consultants, the majority of whom belong to big companies. They acquired the qualification merely for the purpose of self-development. Therefore, they have few opportunities to demonstrate their expertise inside and outside their companies.On the other hand, the SMEs, which are to receive analysis and consultation from SME management consultants, constitute 99.7% of all industries, and are very important to local communities, for they sustain the economy and provide employment. SMEs used to be supported by the consultants in company management due to their scarce managerial resources compared with big companies. Nowadays, however, SMEs are regarded as the source of Japanese economic dynamism. To have the same degree of managerial skills as big companies, therefore, SMEs now need analysis and consultation by the consultants in more active ways, such as discovering and utilizing their dormant technologies. Partly because SME management consultants have not been fully utilized in Japan, the number of SMEs has been on a long-term downward trend since 1986. Utilizing expertise of the in-house consultants, who have rich experience in their big companies and deep knowledge regarding SMEs obtained through qualification, will potentially lead to revitalization of SMEs and consequently to economic growth in Japan. Through detailed analysis of the interview results, this study revealed short-term and long-term challenges regarding how to utilize SME management consultants. The most urgent issue is to study managerial approaches that will provide the consultants serving in big companies with more “opportunities to demonstrate their expertise.” The long-term issue is to enable the consultants to demonstrate their expertise in financial institutions, or financial supporter of SMEs, to examine farsighted and innovative financing strategy and criteria based on managers’ personalities and their business plans, instead of the conventional financing based on prompt fund collection.

Keywords: small and medium enterprise（SME), SME managemant consultant, self-actualization, motivation

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Authors: Ivan Samokhin

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A new two-factor model of school students’ capacity levels is proposed. It considers the academic productivity and emotional condition of children taking part in the study process. Each basic level reflects the correlation of these two factors. The teacher decides whether the required result is achieved or not and write down the grade (from 'A' to 'F') in the register. During the term, the teacher can estimate the students’ progress with any intervals, but it is not desirable to exceed a two-week period (with primary school being an exception). Each boy or girl should have a special notebook to record the emotions which they feel studying a subject. The children can make their notes the way they like it – for example, using a ten-point scale or a short verbal description. It is recommended to record the emotions twice a day: after the lesson and after doing the homework. Before the students start doing this, they should be instructed by a school psychologist, who has to emphasize that an attitude to the subject – not to a person in charge of it – is relevant. At the end of the term, the notebooks are given to the teacher, who is now able to make preliminary conclusions about academic results and psychological comfort of each student. If necessary, some pedagogical measures can be taken. The data about a supposed capacity level is available for the teacher and the school administration. In certain cases, this information can be also revealed to the student’s parents, while the student learns it only after receiving a school-leaving certificate (until this moment, the results are not considered ultimate). Then a person may take these data into consideration when choosing his/her future area of higher education. We single out four main capacity levels: 'nominally low', 'inclination', 'ability' and 'gift'.

Keywords: academic productivity, capacity level, emotional condition, school students

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Authors: A. Aarabzadeh, R. Hizaji

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Reinforced Concrete (RC) deep beams are a special type of beams due to their geometry, boundary conditions, and behavior compared to ordinary shallow beams. For example, assumption of a linear strain-stress distribution in the cross section is not valid. Little study has been dedicated to fixed-end RC deep beams. Also, most experimental studies are carried out on simply supported deep beams. Regarding recent tendency for application of deep beams, possibility of using fixed-ended deep beams has been widely increased in structures. Therefore, it seems necessary to investigate the aforementioned structural element in more details. In addition to experimental investigation of a concrete deep beam under cyclic load, different failure mechanisms of fixed-ended deep beams under this type of loading have been evaluated in the present study. The results show that failure mechanisms of deep beams under cyclic loads are quite different from monotonic loads.

Keywords: deep beam, cyclic load, reinforced concrete, fixed-ended

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Authors: Vaso K. Kapnopoulou, Piero Caridis

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The fatigue of ship structural details is of major concern in the maritime industry as it can generate fracture issues that may compromise structural integrity. In the present study, a fatigue analysis of the lower hopper knuckle connection of a bulk carrier was conducted using the Finite Element Method by means of ABAQUS/CAE software. The fatigue life was calculated using Miner’s Rule and the long-term distribution of stress range by the use of the two-parameter Weibull distribution. The cumulative damage ratio was estimated using the fatigue damage resulting from the stress range occurring at each load condition. For this purpose, a cargo hold model was first generated, which extends over the length of two holds (the mid-hold and half of each of the adjacent holds) and transversely over the full breadth of the hull girder. Following that, a submodel of the area of interest was extracted in order to calculate the hot spot stress of the connection and to estimate the fatigue life of the structural detail. Two hot spot locations were identified; one at the top layer of the inner bottom plate and one at the top layer of the hopper plate. The IACS Common Structural Rules (CSR) require that specific dynamic load cases for each loading condition are assessed. Following this, the dynamic load case that causes the highest stress range at each loading condition should be used in the fatigue analysis for the calculation of the cumulative fatigue damage ratio. Each load case has a different effect on ship hull response. Of main concern, when assessing the fatigue strength of the lower hopper knuckle connection, was the determination of the maximum, i.e. the critical value of the stress range, which acts in a direction normal to the weld toe line. This acts in the transverse direction, that is, perpendicularly to the ship's centerline axis. The load cases were explored both theoretically and numerically in order to establish the one that causes the highest damage to the location examined. The most severe one was identified to be the load case induced by beam sea condition where the encountered wave comes from the starboard. At the level of the cargo hold model, the model was assumed to be simply supported at its ends. A coarse mesh was generated in order to represent the overall stiffness of the structure. The elements employed were quadrilateral shell elements, each having four integration points. A linear elastic analysis was performed because linear elastic material behavior can be presumed, since only localized yielding is allowed by most design codes. At the submodel level, the displacements of the analysis of the cargo hold model to the outer region nodes of the submodel acted as boundary conditions and applied loading for the submodel. In order to calculate the hot spot stress at the hot spot locations, a very fine mesh zone was generated and used. The fatigue life of the detail was found to be 16.4 years which is lower than the design fatigue life of the structure (25 years), making this location vulnerable to fatigue fracture issues. Moreover, the loading conditions that induce the most damage to the location were found to be the various ballasting conditions.

Keywords: dynamic load cases, finite element method, high cycle fatigue, lower hopper knuckle

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Authors: K. Chalernpon, P. Aroonjarattham, K. Aroonjarattham

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Total hip replacement had been one of the most successful operations in hip arthritis surgery. The purpose of this research had been to develop a dynamic hip contact of Thai femoral bone to analyze the stress distribution on the implant and the strain distribution on the bone model under daily activities and compared with the static load simulation. The results showed the different of maximum von Mises stress 0.14 percent under walking and 0.03 percent under climbing stair condition and the different of equivalent total strain 0.52 percent under walking and 0.05 percent under climbing stair condition. The muscular forces should be evaluated with dynamic condition to reduce the maximum von Mises stress and equivalent total strain.

Keywords: dynamic loading, static load, hip prosthesis, Thai femur, femoral bone, finite element analysis

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Authors: Anjana R. Menon, Anjana Bhasi

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Development of highways and railways play crucial role in a nation’s economic growth. While rigid concrete pavements are durable with high load bearing characteristics, growing economies mostly rely on flexible pavements which are easier in construction and more economical. The strength of flexible pavement is based on the strength of subgrade and load distribution characteristics of intermediate granular layers. In this scenario, to simultaneously meet economy and strength criteria, it is imperative to strengthen and stabilize the load transferring layers, namely subbase and base. Geosynthetic reinforcement in planar and cellular forms have been proven effective in improving soil stiffness and providing a stable load transfer platform. Studies have proven the relative superiority of cellular form-geocells over planar geosynthetic forms like geogrid, owing to the additional confinement of infill material and pocket effect arising from vertical deformation. Hence, the present study investigates the efficiency of geocells over single/multiple layer geogrid reinforcements by a series of three-dimensional model analyses of a flexible pavement section under a standard repetitive wheel load. The stress transfer mechanism and deformation profiles under various reinforcement configurations are also studied. Geocell reinforcement is observed to take up a higher proportion of stress caused by the traffic loads compared to single and double-layer geogrid reinforcements. The efficiency of single geogrid reinforcement reduces with an increase in embedment depth. The contribution of lower geogrid is insignificant in the case of the double-geogrid reinforced system.

Keywords: Geocell, Geogrid, Flexible Pavement, Repetitive Wheel Load, Numerical Analysis

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Authors: Mariana Damova, Stanko Stankov, Emil Stoyanov, Hristo Hristov, Hermand Pessek, Plamen Chernev

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We will present one of the first use cases on the DestinE platform, a joint initiative of the European Commission, European Space Agency and EUMETSAT, providing access to global earth observation, meteorological and statistical data, and emphasize the good practice of intergovernmental agencies acting in concert. Further, we will discuss the importance of space-bound disruptive solutions for improving the balance between the ever-increasing water-related disasters coming from climate change and minimizing their economic and societal impact. The use case focuses on forecasting floods and estimating the impact of flood events on the urban environment and the ecosystems in the affected areas with the purpose of helping municipal decision-makers to analyze and plan resource needs and to forge human-environment relationships by providing farmers with insightful information for improving their agricultural productivity. For the forecast, we will adopt an EO4AI method of our platform ISME-HYDRO, in which we employ a pipeline of neural networks applied to in-situ measurements and satellite data of meteorological factors influencing the hydrological and hydrodynamic status of rivers and dams, such as precipitations, soil moisture, vegetation index, snow cover to model flood events and their span. ISME-HYDRO platform is an e-infrastructure for water resources management based on linked data, extended with further intelligence that generates forecasts with the method described above, throws alerts, formulates queries, provides superior interactivity and drives communication with the users. It provides synchronized visualization of table views, graphviews and interactive maps. It will be federated with the DestinE platform.

Keywords: flood simulation, AI, Earth observation, e-Infrastructure, flood forecasting, flood areas localization, response planning, resource estimation

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Authors: Renata Josipovic, Ante Cvitkovic

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Particulate matter belongs to pollutants that can lead to respiratory problems or premature death due to exposure (long-term, short-term) to these substances, all depending on the severity of the effects. The importance of the study is to determine whether the existing climatic conditions in the period from January 1st to August 31st, 2018 increased the number of emergency interventions in Slavonski Brod with regard to pollutants hydrogen sulfide and particles less than 10 µm (PM10) and less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5). Analytical data of the concentration of pollutants are collected from the Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service, which monitors the operation of two meteorological stations in Slavonski Brod, as well as climatic conditions. Statistics data of emergency interventions were collected from the Emergency Medicine Department of Slavonski Brod. All data were compared (air pollution, emergency interventions) according to climatic conditions (air humidity and air temperature) and statistically processed. Statistical significance, although weak positive correlation PM2.5 (correlation coefficient 0.147; p = 0.036), determined PM10 (correlation coefficient 0.122; p = 0.048), hydrogen sulfide (correlation coefficient 0.141; p = 0.035) with max. temperature (correlation coefficient 0.202; p = 0.002) with number of interventions. The association between mean air humidity was significant but negative (correlation coefficient - 0.172; p = 0.007). The values of the influence of air pressure are not determined. As the problem of air pollution is very complex, coordinated action at many levels is needed to reduce air pollution in Slavonski Brod and consequences that can affect human health.

Keywords: emergency interventions, human health, hydrogen sulfide, particulate matter

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Authors: Trung Le Thanh

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Bored piles are always the optimal solution for high-rise building foundations. They have many advantages, such as large diameter, large pile length and construction in all different geological conditions. However, due to construction characteristics, the load-bearing capacity of bored piles is not optimal because wall friction is reduced due to poor contact between the pile and the surrounding soil. Therefore, grouting technology along the pile body helps improve the load-bearing capacity of bored piles significantly through increasing the skin resistance of the pile and surrounding soil. The improvement of pile skin resistance depends on the parameters of grouting technology, especially grouting volume, mortar viscosity, mortar strength,... and different geological conditions. Studies show that the technology of grouting piles on sandy soil is more effective than on clay. This article presents an experimental model to determine the load-bearing capacity of bored piles with a diameter of 400 mm and a length of 3 m on sand with different slurry volume in Tan Uyen city, Binh Duong province. On that basis, analyze the correlation between the increase in load-bearing capacity of bored piles without and with shaft grouting pile. Research results show that the wall resistance of shaft grouted piles increases 2-3 times compared to piles without grouting, and the pile's load-bearing capacity increases significantly. The article's research provides scientific value for consulting work on the design of bored piles when grouted along the pile body.

Keywords: bored pile, shaft grouting, bearing capacity, pile shaft resistance

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Authors: G. Lambe, D. Mansukhani, A. Shetty, S. Khodaiji, C. Rodrigues, F. Kapadia

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Introduction: Sepsis is known to cause impairment of both innate and adaptive immunity and involves an early uncontrolled inflammatory response, followed by a protracting immunosuppression phase, which includes decreased expression of cell receptors, T cell anergy and exhaustion, impaired cytokine production, which may cause high risk for secondary infections due to reduced response to antigens. Although human cytomegalovirus (CMV) is widely recognized as a serious viral pathogen in sepsis and immunocompromised patients, the incidence of CMV reactivation in patients with sepsis lacking strong evidence of immunosuppression is not well defined. Therefore, it is important to determine an association between CMV reactivation and sepsis-induced immunosuppression. Aim: To determine the association between incidence of CMV reactivation and immune modulation in sepsis-induced immunosuppression with time. Material and Methods: Ten CMV-seropositive adult patients with severe sepsis were included in this study. Blood samples were collected on Day 0, and further weekly up to 21 days. CMV load was quantified by real-time PCR using plasma. The expression of immunosuppression markers, namely, HLA-DR, PD-1, and regulatory T cells, were determined by flow cytometry using whole blood. Results: At Day 0, no CMV reactivation was observed in 6/10 patients. In these patients, the median length for reactivation was 14 days (range, 7-14 days). The remaining four patients, at Day 0, had a mean viral load of 1802+2599 copies/ml, which increased with time. At Day 21, the mean viral load for all 10 patients was 60949+179700 copies/ml, indicating that viremia increased with the length of stay in the hospital. HLA-DR expression on monocytes significantly increased from Day 0 to Day 7 (p = 0.001), following which no significant change was observed until Day 21, for all patients except 3. In these three patients, HLA-DR expression on monocytes showed a decrease at elevated viral load (>5000 copies/ml), indicating immune suppression. However, the other markers, PD-1 and regulatory T cells, did not show any significant changes. Conclusion: These preliminary findings suggest that CMV reactivation can occur in patients with severe sepsis. In fact, the viral load continued to increase with the length of stay in the hospital. Immune suppression, indicated by decreased expression of HLA-DR alone, was observed in three patients with elevated viral load.

Keywords: CMV reactivation, immune suppression, sepsis immune modulation, CMV viral load

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Authors: Vitalijs Lusis, Andrejs Krasnikovs

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Fiber reinforced concrete is important material for load bearing structural elements. Usually fibers are homogeneously distributed in a concrete body having arbitrary spatial orientations. At the same time, in many situations, fiber concrete with oriented fibers is more optimal. Is obvious, that is possible to create constructions with oriented short fibers in them, in different ways. Present research is devoted to one of such approaches- fiber reinforced concrete prisms having dimensions 100 mm×100 mm×400 mm with layers of non-homogeneously distributed fibers inside them were fabricated. Simultaneously prisms with homogeneously dispersed fibers were produced for reference as well. Prisms were tested under four point bending conditions. During the tests vertical deflection at the center of every prism and crack opening were measured (using linear displacements transducers in real timescale). Prediction results were discussed.

Keywords: fiber reinforced concrete, 4-point bending, steel fiber, construction engineering

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Authors: Hyunsang Kim, Younghun Kim, Younghee Kim, Sangku Lee

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We investigated ecotoxicity and performed an experiment for removing ZnO nanoparticles in water. Short-term exposure of hatching test using fertilized eggs (O. latipes) showed deformity in 5 ppm of ZnO nanoparticles solution, and in 10ppm ZnO nanoparticles solution delayed hatching was observed. Herein, chemical precipitation method was suggested for removing ZnO nanoparticles in water. The precipitated ZnO nanoparticles showed the form of ZnS after addition of Na2S, and the form of Zn3(PO4)2 for Na2HPO4. The removal efficiency of ZnO nanoparticles in water was closed to 100% for two case. In ecotoxicity evaluation of as-precipitated ZnS and Zn3(PO4)2, they did not cause any acute toxicity for D. magna. It is noted that this precipitation treatment of ZnO is effective to reduce the potential cytotoxicity.

Keywords: ZnO nanopraticles, ZnS, Zn3(PO4)2, ecotoxicity evaluation, chemical precipitation

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Authors: Aref Aasi, Sadegh Mehdi Aghaei, Balaji Panchapakesan

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This work aims to evaluate the free and forced vibration of a beam with two end joints subjected to a concentrated moving mass and a load using the Euler-Bernoulli method. The natural frequency is calculated for different locations of the concentrated mass and load on the beam. The analytical results are verified by the experimental data. The variations of natural frequency as a function of the location of the mass, the effect of the forced frequency on the vibrational amplitude, and the displacement amplitude versus time are investigated. It is discovered that as the concentrated mass moves toward the center of the beam, the natural frequency of the beam and the relative error between experimental and analytical data decreases. There is a close resemblance between analytical data and experimental observations.

Keywords: Euler-Bernoulli beam, natural frequency, forced vibration, experimental setup

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Authors: Balaji Ganesh Rajagopal, Subramanian Appavu alias Balamurugan, Ayyalraj Midhun Kumar, Krishnan Nallaperumal

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Intelligent Transportation System is an Emerging area to solve multiple transportation problems. Several forms of inputs are needed in order to solve ITS problems. Advanced Traveler Information System (ATIS) is a core and important ITS area of this modern era. This involves travel time forecasting, efficient road map analysis and cost based path selection, Detection of the vehicle in the dynamic conditions and Traffic congestion state forecasting. This Article designs and provides an algorithm for traffic data generation which can be used for the above said ATIS application. By inputting the real world traffic situation in the form of video sequences, the algorithm determines the Traffic density in terms of congestion, number of vehicles in a given path which can be fed for various ATIS applications. The Algorithm deduces the key frame from the video sequences and follows the Blob detection, Identification and Tracking using connected components algorithm to determine the correlation between the vehicles moving in the real road scene.

Keywords: traffic transportation, traffic density estimation, blob identification and tracking, relative velocity of vehicles, correlation between vehicles

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Authors: Orod Zarrin, Mohesn Ramezan Shirazi, Hassan Moniri

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The use of pile foundations technique is developed to support structures and buildings on soft soil. The most important dynamic load that can affect the pile structure is earthquake vibrations. Pile foundations during earthquake excitation indicate that piles are subject to damage by affecting the superstructure integrity and serviceability. During an earthquake, two types of stresses can damage the pile head, inertial load that is caused by superstructure and deformation which caused by the surrounding soil. Soil deformation and inertial load are associated with the acceleration developed in an earthquake. The acceleration amplitude at the ground surface depends on the magnitude of earthquakes, soil properties and seismic source distance. According to the investigation, the damage is between the liquefiable and non-liquefiable layers and also soft and stiff layers. This damage crushes the pile head by increasing the inertial load which is applied by the superstructure. On the other hand, the cracks on the piles due to the surrounding soil are directly related to the soil profile and causes cracks from small to large. However, the large cracks reason have been listed such as liquefaction, lateral spreading, and inertial load. In the field of designing, elastic response of piles is always a challenge for designer in liquefaction soil, by allowing deflection at top of piles. Moreover, absence of plastic hinges in piles should be insured, because the damage in the piles is not observed directly. In this study, the performance and behavior of pile foundations during liquefaction and lateral spreading are investigated. In addition, emphasize on the soil behavior in the liquefiable and non-liquefiable layers by different aspect of piles damage such as ranking, location and degree of damage are going to discuss.

Keywords: pile, earthquake, liquefaction, non-liquefiable, damage

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Authors: Ž. Nikolić, H. Smoljanović, N. Živaljić

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This paper presents numerical model based on finite-discrete element method for analysis of the structural response of dry stone masonry structures under static and dynamic loads. More precisely, each discrete stone block is discretized by finite elements. Material non-linearity including fracture and fragmentation of discrete elements as well as cyclic behavior during dynamic load are considered through contact elements which are implemented within a finite element mesh. The application of the model was conducted on several examples of these structures. The performed analysis shows high accuracy of the numerical results in comparison with the experimental ones and demonstrates the potential of the finite-discrete element method for modelling of the response of dry stone masonry structures.

Keywords: dry stone masonry structures, dynamic load, finite-discrete element method, static load

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Authors: L. Rashidian, M. Rajabali

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Climate changes have unpredictable and costly effects on water resources of various basins. The impact of atmospheric phenomena on human life and the environment is so significant that only knowledge of management can reduce its consequences. In this study, using LARS.WG model and down scaling of general circulation climate model HADCM-3 and according to the IPCC scenarios, including series A1b, A2 and B1, we simulated data from 2010 to 2040 in order to using them for long term forecasting of climate parameters of the Caspian Sea and its impact on sea level. Our research involves collecting data on monthly precipitation amounts, minimum and maximum temperature and daily sunshine hours, from meteorological organization for Caspian Sea coastal station such as Gorgan, Ramsar, Rasht, Anzali, Astara and Ghaemshahr since their establishment until 2010. Considering the fact that the fluctuation range of water level in the Caspian Sea has various ups and downs in different times, there is an increase in minimum and maximum temperature for all the mentioned scenarios, which will last until 2040. Overall, the amount of rainfall in cities bordering the Caspian Sea was studied based on the three scenarios, which shows an increase in the amount. However, there will be a decrease in water level of the Caspian Sea till 2040.

Keywords: IPCC, climate change, atmospheric circulation, Caspian Sea, HADCM3, sea level

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Authors: Shagil Akhtar, Syed Muneeb Iqbal, Mohammed R. Rahim

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Common steel tubes with similar confines were used in simulation of tubes with distinctive type of corrugated sections. These corrugated cross-sections were arc-tangent, triangular, trapezoidal and square corrugated sections. The outcome of fluctuating structures of tube cross-section shape on the deformation feedback, collapse form and energy absorption characteristics of tubes under quasi-static axial compression have been prepared numerically. The finite element package of ANSYS Workbench was applied in the current analysis. The axial load-displacement products accompanied by the fold formation of disparate tubes were inspected and compared. Deviation of the initial peak load and the mean crushing force of the tubes with distinctive cross-sections were conscientiously examined.

Keywords: absorbed energy, axial loading, corrugated tubes, finite element, initial peak load, mean crushing force

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Authors: A. Rahim Baharudin, Nor Arinee binti Mat Saaud, Muhammad Afiq Azman, Farah Adiba A. Sani

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Objectives: This paper shares the case study on the engineering analysis, data analysis, and real-time data comparison for qualifying the stand wires' minimum breaking load and safe working load upon loadout operation for a new project and, at the same time, eliminate the risk due to discrepancies and unalignment of COMPANY Technical Standards to Industry Standards and Practices. This paper demonstrates “Lean Construction” for COMPANY’s Project by sustaining fit-for-purpose Technical Requirements of Loadout Strand Wire Factor of Safety (F.S). The case study utilizes historical engineering data from a few loadout operations by skidding methods from different projects. It is also demonstrating and qualifying the skidding wires' minimum breaking load and safe working load used for loadout operation for substructure and other facilities for the future. Methods: Engineering analysis and comparison of data were taken as referred to the international standard and internal COMPANY standard requirements. Data was taken from nine (9) previous projects for both topsides and jacket facilities executed at the several local fabrication yards where load out was conducted by three (3) different service providers with emphasis on four (4) basic elements: i) Industry Standards for Loadout Engineering and Operation Reference: COMPANY internal standard was referred to superseded documents of DNV-OS-H201 and DNV/GL 0013/ND. DNV/GL 0013/ND and DNVGL-ST-N001 do not mention any requirements of Strand Wire F.S of 4.0 for Skidding / Pulling Operations. ii) Reference to past Loadout Engineering and Execution Package: Reference was made to projects delivered by three (3) major offshore facilities operators. Strand Wire F.S observed ranges from 2.0 MBL (Min) to 2.5 MBL (Max). No Loadout Operation using the requirements of 4.0 MBL was sighted from the reference. iii) Strand Jack Equipment Manufacturer Datasheet Reference: Referring to Strand Jack Equipment Manufactured Datasheet by different loadout service providers, it is shown that the Designed F.S for the equipment is also ranging between 2.0 ~ 2.5. Eight (8) Strand Jack Datasheet Model was referred to, ranging from 15 Mt to 850 Mt Capacity; however, there are NO observations of designed F.S 4.0 sighted. iv) Site Monitoring on Actual Loadout Data and Parameter: Max Load on Strand Wire was captured during 2nd Breakout, which is during Static Condition of 12.9 MT / Strand Wire (67.9% Utilization). Max Load on Strand Wire for Dynamic Conditions during Step 8 and Step 12 is 9.4 Mt / Strand Wire (49.5% Utilization). Conclusion: This analysis and study demonstrated the adequacy of strand wires supplied by the service provider were technically sufficient in terms of strength, and via engineering analysis conducted, the minimum breaking load and safe working load utilized and calculated for the projects were satisfied and operated safely for the projects. It is recommended from this study that COMPANY’s technical requirements are to be revised for future projects’ utilization.

Keywords: construction, load out, minimum breaking load, safe working load, strand jacking, skidding

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Authors: Tijing Cai, Qimeng Xu, Daijin Zhou

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This paper puts forward a short-baseline dual-antenna BDS/MEMS-IMU integrated navigation, constructs the carrier phase double difference model of BDS (BeiDou Navigation Satellite System), and presents a 2-position initial orientation method on BDS. The Extended Kalman-filter has been introduced for the integrated navigation system. The differences between MEMS-IMU and BDS position, velocity and carrier phase indications are used as measurements. To show the performance of the short-baseline dual-antenna BDS/MEMS-IMU integrated navigation system, the experiment results show that the position error is less than 1m, the pitch angle error and roll angle error are less than 0.1°, and the heading angle error is about 1°.

Keywords: MEMS-IMU (Micro-Electro-Mechanical System Inertial Measurement Unit), BDS (BeiDou Navigation Satellite System), dual-antenna, integrated navigation

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Authors: Entfellner Manuel, Wannenmacher Helmut, Reisenbauer Josef, Schubert Wulf

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When tunnelling in overstressed weak rocks ("squeezing ground"), two basic design approaches are available: the resistance principle, and the yielding principle. The resistance principle relies on rigid support systems to withstand the ground pressure. Alternatively, the yielding principle prioritizes controlled deformation, allowing the ground to deform without compromising tunnel integrity. This paper highlights the beneficial factors of the yielding principle for conventionally excavated tunnels in overstressed weak rocks. Especially the application of a ductile shotcrete lining with yielding elements is analysed in detail. Construction costs, safety, short- and long-term stabilities are discussed.

Keywords: squeezing ground, yielding principle, yielding element, conventional tunneling

Procedia PDF Downloads 69

Authors: Izabela Poprawa, Alina Chachulska-Zymelka, Lukasz Chajec, Grazyna Wilczek, Piotr Wilczek, Sebastian Student, Magdalena Rost-Roszkowska

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Heavy metals polluting the environment, especially soil, have a harmful effect on organisms, because they can damage the organ structure, disturb their function and cause developmental disorders. They can affect not only the somatic tissues but also the germinal tissues. In the natural environment, plants and animals are exposed to short- and long-term exposure to these stressors, which have a major influence on the functioning of these organisms. Numerous animals have been treated as the bioindicators of the environment. Therefore, studies on any alterations caused by, e.g., heavy metals are in the center of interests of not only environmental but also medical and biological science. Myriapods are invertebrates which are bioindicators of the environment. One of the species which lives in the upper layers of soil, particularly under stones and rocks is Lithobius forficatus (Chilopoda), commonly known as the brown centipede or stone centipede. It is a European species of the family Lithobiidae. This centipede living in the soil is exposed to, e.g., heavy metals such as cadmium, lead, arsenic. The main goal of our project was to analyze the impact of long-term exposure to cadmium on the structure of ovary with the emphasis on the course of oogenesis. As the material for analysis of cadmium exposure to ovaries, we chose the centipede species, L. forficatus. Animals were divided into two experimental groups: C – the control group, the animals cultured in laboratory conditions in a horticultural soil; Cd2 – the animals cultured in a horticultural soil supplemented with 80 mg/kg (dry weight) of CdCl2 for 45 days – long-term exposure. Animals were fed with Acheta and Chironomus larvae maintained in tap water. The analyzes were carried out using transmission electron microscopy (TEM), flow cytometry and laser scanning (confocal) microscopy. Here we present the results of long-term exposure to cadmium concentration in soil on the organ responsible for female germ cell formation. Analysis with the use of the transmission electron microscope showed changes in the ultrastructure of both somatic and germ cells in the ovary. Moreover, quantitative analysis revealed the decrease in the percentage of cells viability, the increase in the percentage of cells with depolarized mitochondria and increasing the number of early apoptotic cells. All these changes were statistically significant compared to the control. Additionally, an increase in the ADP/ATP index was recorded. However, changes were not statistically significant to the control. Acknowledgment: The study has been financed by the National Science Centre, Poland, grant no 2017/25/B/NZ4/00420.

Keywords: cadmium, centipede, ovary, ultrastructure

Procedia PDF Downloads 117

Authors: Kwan Hee Han

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External environment of enterprise is rapidly changing majorly by global competition, cost reduction pressures, and new technology. In these situations, production scheduling function plays a critical role to meet customer requirements and to attain the goal of operational efficiency. It deals with short-term decision making in the production process of the whole supply chain. The major task of production scheduling is to seek a balance between customer orders and limited resources. In manufacturing companies, this task is so difficult because it should efficiently utilize resource capacity under the careful consideration of many interacting constraints. At present, many computerized software solutions have been utilized in many enterprises to generate a realistic production schedule to overcome the complexity of schedule generation. However, most production scheduling systems do not provide sufficient information about the validity of the generated schedule except limited statistics. Process mining only recently emerged as a sub-discipline of both data mining and business process management. Process mining techniques enable the useful analysis of a wide variety of processes such as process discovery, conformance checking, and bottleneck analysis. In this study, the performance of generated production schedule is evaluated by mining event log data of production scheduling software system by using the process mining techniques since every software system generates event logs for the further use such as security investigation, auditing and error bugging. An application of process mining approach is proposed for the validation of the goodness of production schedule generated by scheduling software systems in this study. By using process mining techniques, major evaluation criteria such as utilization of workstation, existence of bottleneck workstations, critical process route patterns, and work load balance of each machine over time are measured, and finally, the goodness of production schedule is evaluated. By using the proposed process mining approach for evaluating the performance of generated production schedule, the quality of production schedule of manufacturing enterprises can be improved.

Keywords: data mining, event log, process mining, production scheduling

Procedia PDF Downloads 279

Authors: Jiao F. Huang, Shi Chen, Shu C. Duan, Gang H. Wang

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Due to its complex spatial structure as well as dynamic temporal evolution, an analytic solution of an X-pinch process is out of question, and numerical simulation becomes an important tool in X-pinch studies. Intrinsically, simulations of X-pinch are three-dimensional (3D) because of the specific structure of its load. Furthermore, in order to resolve both its μm-scales and ns-durations, fine spatial mesh grid and short time steps are usually adopted. The resulting large computational scales make the parallelization of codes a vital problem to be solved if any practical simulations are to be carried out. In this work, we report OpenMP parallelization of our 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) code FOI-PERFECT. Results of test runs confirm that computational efficiency has been improved after parallelization, and both the sequential and parallel versions give the same physical results under the same initial conditions.

Keywords: MHD simulation, OpenMP, parallelization, X-pinch

Procedia PDF Downloads 337

Authors: Lídia E. O. Cruz, Adriano P. C. Calvo, Renato J. Soares, Regiane A. Carvalho

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Individuals with non-specific chronic low back pain may present altered movement patterns during functional activities. However, muscle behavior before and after performing a functional task with different load conditions is not yet fully understood. The aim of this study is to analyze lumbar muscle activity before and after performing the functional task of picking up and placing an object on the ground (with and without load) in individuals with nonspecific chronic low back pain. 20 subjects with nonspecific chronic low back pain and 20 healthy subjects participated in this study. A surface electromyography was performed in the ilio-costal, longissimus and multifidus muscles to evaluate lumbar muscle activity before and after performing the functional task of picking up and placing an object on the ground, with and without load. The symptomatic participants had greater lumbar muscle activation compared to the asymptomatic group, more evident in performing the task without load, with statistically significant difference (p = 0,033) between groups for the right multifidus muscle. This study showed that individuals with nonspecific chronic low back pain have higher muscle activation before and after performing a functional task compared to healthy participants.

Keywords: chronic low back pain, functional task, lumbar muscles, muscle activity

Procedia PDF Downloads 195

Authors: Hassan. A. Abas, Saad A. Aiban

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Soil improvement by means of stone column method is used to improve sabkha soils in order to limit total and differential settlement and to achieve the required bearing capacity. Full-scale plate test was performed on site to confirm the achievement of required bearing capacity at the specified settlement. Despite the fact that this technique is widely used to improve sabkha soils, there are no studies focusing on the behavior of stone columns in such problematic soils. Sabkha soils are known for its high compressibility, low strength and water sensitivity due to loss of salt cementation upon flooding during installation of stone columns. Numerical modeling of plate load test assist to understand complicated behavior of sabkha – stone column interaction. This paper presents a three-dimensional Finite element model, using PLAXIS 3D software, to simulate vertical plate load tests on a stone column installed in sabkha. The predicted settlement values are in reasonable agreement with the field measure values and the field load - settlement curve can be predicted with good accuracy.

Keywords: soil improvement, stone column, sabkha, PLAXIS 3D

Procedia PDF Downloads 387

Authors: Jose Ramon Calvo-Ferrer

Abstract:

Video games have been extensively employed in educational contexts to teach contents and skills, upon the premise that they engage students and provide instant feedback, which makes them adequate tools in the field of education and training. Term frequency, along with metacognition and implicit corrective feedback, has often been identified as powerful variables in the learning of vocabulary in a foreign language. This study analyses the learning of L2 mobile operating system terminology by a group of students and uses the data collected by the video game The Conference Interpreter to identify the predictive strength of term frequency (times a term is shown), positive metacognition (times a right answer is provided), and negative metacognition (times a term is shown as wrong) regarding L2 vocabulary learning and perceived learning outcomes. The regression analysis shows that the factor ‘positive metacognition’ is a positive predictor of both dependent variables, whereas the other factors seem to have no statistical effect on any of them.

Keywords: digital game-based learning, feedback, metacognition, frequency, video games

Procedia PDF Downloads 153